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Prominent NAS member trashes neo-Darwinism

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Natural selection …is not the fundamental cause of evolution.

Masatoshi Nei

Science continues to destroy Darwinism. A prominent member of the National Academy of Sciences, Masatoshi Nei, trashed neo-Darwinism in the recent peer-reviewed article: The new mutation theory of phenotypic evolution.

Haldane’s dilemma showed mathematically that natural selection could not be the major driving force of evolution. Haldane’s dilemma lead in part to the non-Darwinian theory of molecular evolution known as the “neutral theory of molecular evolution”. Neutral theory asserted natural selection was not the principal driving force of molecular evolution. However, when molecular neutral theory was presented to the world in the 1960’s, it was politically incorrect to assert the obvious consequence of the neutral theory of molecular evolution, namely: morphology, physiology, and practically anything else made of molecules would NOT be principally shaped by natural selection either.

In What are the speed limits of naturalistic evolution?, I pointed out:

And if Haldane’s dilemma were not enough of a blow to Darwinian evolution, in the 1960’s several population geneticists like Motoo Kimura demonstrated mathematically that the overwhelming majority of molecular evolution was non-Darwinian and invisible to natural selection. Lest he be found guilty for blasphemy, Kimura made an obligatory salute to Darwin by saying his non-Darwinian neutral theory “does not deny the role of natural selection in determining the course of adaptive evolution”. That’s right, according to Kimura, adaptive evolution is visible to natural selection while simultaneously molecular evolution is invisible to natural selection. Is such a position logical? No. Is it politically and intellectually expedient? Absolutely!

But now 4 decades later, the inevitable consequence of Haldane’s dilemma and Kimura’s neutral theory may be ending the uneasy truce between neo-Darwinists and neutralists.

Nei writes:

For the last six decades, the dominant theory of evolution has been neo-Darwinism, which was developed by the three founders of theoretical population genetics, Fisher (1), Wright (2), and Haldane (3), and was later supported by various evolutionists (4). Neo-Darwinism asserts that natural selection is the driving force of evolution,
….
In the last four decades, the study of molecular evolution has shown that a majority of amino acid substitutions in proteins are neutral or nearly neutral

However, most evolutionists still believe in neo-Darwinism with respect to phenotypic evolution and are not interested in neutral evolution (19,22).

Mayr (23) stated that neutral mutations apparently occur at the molecular level, but because they do not affect phenotypic characters, they are of little interest to evolutionists.
….

By contrast, Nei (17, 24, 25) argued that because phenotypic characters are ultimately controlled by DNA sequences, both molecular and phenotypic evolution must occur in similar [non Darwinian] ways. He also suggested that a considerable portion of morphological evolution is caused by neutral or nearly neutral mutations, and the driving force of evolution is mutation at both molecular and phenotypic levels.
….
As mentioned in the introduction, a majority of current evolutionists believe in neo-Darwinism. In one of the most popular textbooks on evolution, Futuyma (ref. 20, p. 10) states that evolutionary change is a population process in which one genotype replaces other ones, and for this process to occur, mutation is quite ineffective because of its low rate of occurrence, whereas even the slightest intensity of natural selection can bring about substantial change in a realistic amount of time. He also states “Natural selection can account for both slight and great differences among species, and adaptations are traits that have been shaped by natural selection.” Although this type of statement is quite common in the evolutionary literature, it is obvious that any advantageous genotype is produced by mutation including all kinds of genetic changes. Natural selection occurs as a consequence of mutational production of different genotypes, and therefore it is not the fundamental cause of evolution.

Historically, the word mutationism was used to refer to William Bateson’s saltationism or similar ideas, in which natural selection plays little role. Later Morgan (109) presented a more reasonable form of mutationism taking into account the role of natural selection. His view was abstract and based on a few lines of speculative arguments. However, recent molecular studies of phenotypic evolution support the basic ideas of his view and have extended it to a more comprehensive view presented in this article. If the new form of mutation theory described here is right, even in its crudest form, more emphasis should be given on the roles of mutation in the study of evolution.

Notes:

1. ID sympathizer Dr. John Davison, who has spent much of his recent life promoting the works of William Bateson, should be much encouraged with these developments. It was through Davison I learned of Bateson’s wonderful ideas.

2. Richard Dawkins wrote of Kimura in Blindwatchmaker. Dawkins argued Kimura’s ideas wouldn’t overturn Darwinism since Darwinism operated at the higher level of adaptation whereas Kimura’s non-Darwinian theory operated at the lower level of molecules. But the reductionists are now getting taste of their own medicine. If the Darwinism doesn’t operate at the molecular level, then why should we expect it to operate at much higher levels like morphology and physiology either?

3. Lewontin gives a powerful example of neutral evolution at the morphological level. Rhinos have either 1 horn or 2 horns. Did natural selection cause the evolution of one horn in one case, and 2 horns in another? Unlikely.

4. Salthe pointed out a fundamental contradiction in Fisher’s fundamental theorem of natural selection. Selection is the enemy of diversity. Salthe realized the obvious problem of trying to account for the abundance of diversity through a mechanism which reduces diversity.

5. At least 3 signatories of the Discovery Institute’s Dissent from Darwin list anticipated these recent developments. Davison, Salthe, and Ho. Ho managed to present echoes of these ideas 30 years ago in a peer-reviewed journal. See: An eloquent but bogus non-review by Dawkins.

a relative lack of natural selection may be the prerequisite for major evolutionary advance

Mae Wan Ho

Comments
Bob [75] To be honest, and my apologies for sounding arrogant, I would suggest you go back and learn the basics of evolutionary theory...It’s clear to me that you don’t understand the theory.
Ok your right I know nothing – I’m stupid, insane, ignorant, wicked or whatever. I asked for criticism of my argument not criticism of my person. Do you want to try this again and address the issue (i.e. how NS can direct the evolution of higher complexity, when it corresponds to a massive reduction in fitness)? Would it help if I said I wasn’t a creationist?
Acquiesce: It’s safe to say that complexity and fitness are linked – the more complexity the more of a fitness hit… Bob: A moment’s thought will make you realize that this is nonsense.
Organisms of higher complexity (compared to bacteria) and size have longer gestation times, longer generation times, reduced reproductive fecundity, REDUCED NUMBERS OF SURVIVING OFFSPRING, reduced resistance to many poisons, environmental or temperature changes, reduced population sizes, not to mention they sexually reproduce. How is this not a fitness hit?Acquiesce
July 23, 2007
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Bob OH taunted: BTW, Sal, I think you’ve got something in your eye.
Sorry if that was mis-interpreted. It was meant as a silly joke, and not as a taunt at all. Bob
Bob O'H
July 22, 2007
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Bob OH taunted: BTW, Sal, I think you’ve got something in your eye.
Nei may say purifying seleciton acts, but that is a bit of circular reasoning. You need: 1. population resources to effect it 2. deletion experiments of megabases of conserved regions suggests the selection pressure is not that great. That would be expected if these regions have redundancy somewhere. But then, that would cast doubt on the ability of purifying selection to act. Things like Nachman's paradox put some question upon this. Something is in someone's eye for sure.scordova
July 22, 2007
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Testing again: here's the linkPaV
July 22, 2007
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I'm testing something here: please ignore. PaV
July 22, 2007
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I can’t remember the details of this, so I can’t be sure to what extent the mice were “normal”. Can you give a reference?----Bob O'H I can't easily find the New Scientist citation where I originally read it, but here's more or less the same article: http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/9088.phpPaV
July 22, 2007
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If your theory is guesswork, but amenable to calculations, does the quantification of the theory necessarily remove it from the realm of guesswork?
Yes. well done.
When Sal alludes to ultra-conserved regions of mice being removed yet resulting in normal mice, what meaning is there to “highly-conserved”? Surely you can’t say that NS is responsible for the conservation. Isn’t the straightforward and sensible deduction from all of this that the cell, itself, has mechanisms for conservation completely independent of NS?
I can't remember the details of this, so I can't be sure to what extent the mice were "normal". Can you give a reference? Acquiesce -
It’s safe to say that complexity and fitness are linked – the more complexity the more of a fitness hit...
A moment's thought will make you realise that this is nonsense. To be honest, and my apologies for sounding arrogant, I would suggest you go back and learn the basics of evolutionary theory. It's clear to me that you don't understand the theory. I don't have a problem with this: there are lots of things I don't understand either. But if you wish to comment and criticise, I would heartily suggest you understand what you are criticising. There are many good textbooks available: I like John Maynard Smith's Evolutionary Genetics, but you might find another text you prefer. BobBob O'H
July 22, 2007
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i.e. we can measure drift and selection: it’s not just guesswork, we have evidence.---Bob O'H If your theory is guesswork, but amenable to calculations, does the quantification of the theory necessarily remove it from the realm of guesswork? When Sal alludes to ultra-conserved regions of mice being removed yet resulting in normal mice, what meaning is there to "highly-conserved"? Surely you can't say that NS is responsible for the conservation. Isn't the straightforward and sensible deduction from all of this that the cell, itself, has mechanisms for conservation completely independent of NS?PaV
July 22, 2007
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Bob [42] specialization (e.g. on one food source) can be advantageous if it means you can exploit it better, and that you don’t loose out too much in trying to eat everything. Now, I didn’t say it wasn’t advantageous. I said that increasing specialization, such as predominance to a certain food source, in the case of the panda, shows how NS takes generalizations, produces specializations, which lead ultimately to extinction through lack of generalization. I think that’s common sense.
In fact, this seems to fit nicely with what we observe (i.e. organisms appearing at first generalized, then diversifying and ultimately going extinct). If NS is limited to gene shuffling and segregation then without the continue input of constructive mutations, species and ultimately genera and higher taxa are inevitably going to go extinct through the continued action of NS (this is not to say that new species can't be formed by NS in the meantime).Acquiesce
July 22, 2007
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I see nobody has been able to come up with a workable solution to the problem of reduced fitness, so let me try and solve it myself – criticism wanted. Bob talks of trade-off, let’s put this in simple terms: Organism A produces 100 offspring – but only 1 survives. Mutated organism B on the other hand produces only 3 offspring but of this 2 survive. So despite B producing less offspring – more survive. B is then evolutionarily speaking – fitter. Fitness = the number of surviving offspring. Now coming back to bacteria. Bacteria not only produce a staggering number of offspring, but they can also produce a staggering number of surviving offspring. Without doubt bacteria are the fittest organisms we know of. It’s safe to say that complexity and fitness are linked – the more complexity the more of a fitness hit (for example, gestation time alone seems to correspond to an organism’s complexity and size). Therefore, any mutated organism which arose (exhibiting more complexity – therefore lacking fitness) must compete with the parent stock and would be rapidly filtered out. I propose a solution: Gradualism has many flaws, but in this respect because the changes are so small, mutated organisms must compete with the parent stock and win out. Consequently, complexity can never increase – at least not in the direction observed in the fossil record (i.e. from bacteria to man). Only when changes are so large that the mutated organism no longer competes with its parent stock (producing an entirely new type / lifestyle) can the organism remain despite its reduced fitness. This would obviously mean it bypasses NS. Criticism wanted.Acquiesce
July 22, 2007
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Lest I give the impression the neutralist like Nei and Kimura can get out of this unscathed, let me point out the ultra-Darwinist have found equally fatal issues with netural theory, namely, deeply “conserved” sequences.
From Nei's paper (p12235, third column):
The highly conserved genes stay in the genome not because of a low mutation rate but because of a high degree of purifying selection.
Yes, there is this mysterious Third Way, where both selection and drift occur. This is the consensus position in evolutionary biology: the debates we have are over the relative strengths of the two forces. I'll pre-empt one criticism by continuing Nei's paragraph:
The degree of purifying selection can be measured by comparing the number of synonymous nucleotide substitutions per synonymous site (dS) and the number of nonsynonymous substitutions per nonsynonymous site (dN) under the assumption that dS represents the number of neutral mutations.
i.e. we can measure drift and selection: it's not just guesswork, we have evidence. Bob BTW, Sal, I think you've got something in your eye.Bob O'H
July 21, 2007
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Lest I give the impression the neutralist like Nei and Kimura can get out of this unscathed, let me point out the ultra-Darwinist have found equally fatal issues with netural theory, namely, deeply "conserved" sequences. If evolution has been neutral at the molecular level, then why to we have huge stretches of DNA that are identical between mice and men. The ultra-Darwinists will argue that natural selection has purified out those regions, therefore natural selection has maintained hundreds of millions of base pairs. But then we knock these deeply conserved regions out, and what do we get? Normal mice! But in addition to that, we should see a bit more sequence divergence in these regions if neutral theory were true. "Something is rotten in the state of neutral theory" (to quote William Shakespeare). So the neutralists have found fatal flaws in Darwinian evolution, and the Darwinists have found fatal flaws in neutral theory. Collectively, they both managed to invalidate each others existence. But (wink, wink) one of them has to be right, because there is a third alternative that is unthinkable (wink, wink).scordova
July 21, 2007
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Bob: "Firstly, and this might surprise you, Behe’s work is not universally accepted." The problem is not if it is accepted. The problem is if it is true and convincing. And the answer is yes. For it to be accepted by the vast majority of scientists, there should be a complete shift of power and authority. If you are basing your argument on the fact that official science, on the basis of pure authority, rejects ID theory, then you are perfectly right. That will change, but we need some more time... "Secondly, there are several examples of mutations leading to novel features." I have checked the links. A very short and very controversial list indeed. Anyway, to be correct, I am reading the (not very long) stuff and checking the references. For the moment, I am lost in the metaphysics of nylonase, and I must confess that I am a little bit bored... But, if there is time, we can discuss those very virtual examples in the future. I am always very pleased to verify how insignificant, abstract and unlikely are the "strong" examples which darwinists try to offer in defense of the most extraordinary scientific theory of all times. "Thirdly, what else is there other than mutation?" I suppose you mean "random" mutation, or random variation if you want. Well, there is a lot else. Design, for instance. OK, the final result is always a "mutation" or "variation", but it is the implementation of a plan, of a design. Through what means? We don't know, but two reasonable possibilities are: "directed" mutations; and "intelligent" selection.gpuccio
July 21, 2007
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Am I missing something? Why is TalkOrigins bothering with such an example? Seems within the bounds of EOE to me.
The last time I checked TalkOrigins was using human babies born with "monkey tails" as a proof of common descent. How idiotic can you get? Talk Origins has no credibility whatsoever.Jehu
July 20, 2007
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Would you be so kind as to point out which of the examples (Nylonase, etc.) is actually beyond Behe’s claimed EOE? (Or any EOE proposed, in print, by an ID theorist?)
The nylonase example keeps getting dragged up again and again. 1. Went from 100% efficiency to 2% efficiency to metabolize. 2. Lost genetic info as a result of a frameshift. 3. Has a lower reproductive rate and efficiency. 4. Cannot survive amongst the parent species. 5. To go "beyond the edge" requires functional divergence without information loss. Going from metabolic function to metabolic function is not considered functional divergence. Going from, say, a sequence that codes for a metabolic function to a sequence that codes for oxygen transport would be considered "functional divergence." This point is more debatable since it gets into definitions. Am I missing something? Why is TalkOrigins bothering with such an example? Seems within the bounds of EOE to me.Patrick
July 20, 2007
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Salvador, The old expression "Follow the money" drives this whole conflict. Anyone who is non tenured will face obvious tenure questions if they question Darwin. Anyone with tenure will face funding problems if they question a naturalistic mechanism for evolution. Some exceptions may be if the researcher/engineer has mojo for some unusual practical applications of biological engineering or medicine. You should look at the video on MIT's website about synthetic biology and see if you can see where this guy is coming from. ID comes up in the discussion but not in the usual way...about 40 minutes into the video. http://mitworld.mit.edu/video/363/ He talks about designing non evolvable genomes. I am not saying this guy is ID friendly but he doesn't seemed to be hung up on the conventional wisdom because he is at the cutting edge of designing new genomes. And someone else with similar capabilities and the ability to generate significant money for a university would get a pass by the administration even if they believed an ID paradigm.jerry
July 20, 2007
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For a more objective review, read Dawkins. He is the soul of fairness on this issue.
The irony is I think Dawkins was the most honest. I have often felt that. He can be excused for his mistaken position because I genuinely think he's somewhat clueless to the science (product of willful Darwin delusions). I'm having a hard time believing Miller doesn't actually realize Behe is right. I suppose if I were Miller, I could view life as a stage (to quote Behe), and that this pro-Darwinism is merely playing the part. I mean, Behe caught Miller confusing lipids and proteins. C'mon, Miller, a Brown professor of biology couldn't possibly make such a stupid mistake.scordova
July 20, 2007
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Bob, I don't have anything that would explain the changes but just because mutations happen in large numbers, one cannot invoke them unless one has evidence for these mutations leading to positive changes that are not trivial in the field of evolutionary biology. Mutations happen to everyone and are certainly not trivial in disease and medicine. I prefer the term random variation to random mutation because that would allow all sorts of other modifications of the genome to be included such as gene duplication. But just because I think random variation is a better concept, it does not mean that I have seen anything convincing in terms of random variation to explain change. Until then the most honest position is that we have seen some very minor changes in genomes due to random variation but as of yet we have not see anything really novel take place because of it. Scientists should keep looking and maybe something will turn up but till then there is no mechanism for major positive changes that is known and this should be admitted. And whatever mechanism causes these changes to happen, NS can then have an effect but not before. I cannot imagine Behe getting a favorable review by anyone in the current crop of biologists. As soon as they did, their careers would be over. Have you read Behe's responses to Coyne, Carroll and Miller? Where has Behe gone wrong that these authors got it right. For a more objective review, read Dawkins. He is the soul of fairness on this issue.jerry
July 20, 2007
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1 nucleotide implies 2 bits of information, but it takes 3 nucleotides to code an amino acid and Behe's suggest a good minimum is 6 amino acides to create a novel protein binding site. However, 3 nucleotides because of synonymous codons in a 64 element genetic code span only 20 amino acids. The log2(20) = 4.32 bits. Log2(20^6) = 25 bits or about 1 in 64,000,000. This in itself may not seem like something too remote, but when one factors in the likelihood of a mutation occurring we get numbers on the order of 1 in 10^20.scordova
July 20, 2007
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ATOM: "They all seem like basic changes, within the power of blind search. It is disingenuous to claim this as evidence for any sort of large-scale macro-evolution. It is like pointing to rust on my car and saying “See, changes have been documented to occur on a car by blind mechanisms. Therefore, internal-combustion engines could have been built by the same mechanisms.” Or even better, a wheel falling off, and you discovering a new “spark-shooting” function under my car (as it grinds on the road), then making the same claim about engines." LOL! ... "spark shooting function" excellent visual and completely appropriate. It's rather interesting to see some scientists attempt to extrapolate from what information processing systems can do (including break down and yet provide a benefit as pointed out in EoE) to the necessary changes and mechanisms to build those information processing systems in the first place.CJYman
July 20, 2007
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Salvador: "Is Dawkins really saying this. The implications are that all the varieties for the various species are already in the genome (wings and all) and just has to be teased out by natural selection given the right environmental/ecological conditions." Jerry: "Does this mean that Dawkins believes in a form of front loading?" If so, it would seem to coincide with my belief that the design space is front-loaded into the both the laws of nature and life and that life is programmed to NECESSARILY discover these designs.CJYman
July 20, 2007
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Hello Joseph, One nucleotide = 2 binary digits (bits) of information. There are four possibilities of nucleotides which can be chosen. Assuming equal probability of choosing any nucleotide: 2(since we are converting to BInary)^x(number of bits) = [or >] 4(number of nucleotides) "x" will give us the lowest number of bits necessary to represent the four nucleotides. x=2 so that 2^x=4 Therefore, we need AT LEAST TWO binary digits in order to convert the group of four nucleotides into binary digits. Arbitrarily assigned: 00 = a 01 = c 10 = t 11 = g We can do the same for the english alphabet: at 26 letters, how many bits (binary digits) of information are "in" each letter. 2^x= (or >)26 x=5 which gives us 32, so that there is room to add 6 more letters (or symbols such as punctuation/spaces) and still need only 5 bits of information per letter/symbol. "does that help?" including spaces, quotation marks, and punctuation has 85 bits of information. arbitrarily assigned: 00000 = a 00001 = b 00010 = c ... 11001 = z 11010 = ? 11011 = [space] 11100 = " ... etc ...CJYman
July 20, 2007
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In defense of Bob OH, it is true mutation leads to novel features, at the very base, the novel feature is at least the changes in the genome. Dawkins was correct to point out the diversity of mutation in dogs. The impression is that mutation can do enormous things and make varieties of new patterns. So can explosions..... But what is not so apparent is that Behe also asserts mutation does a lot of things. The malarial parasites have trillions of varieties today (much more than dogs). The issue is whether the mutation lead to coherent novelty. When one registers and computer account, one creates coherent novelty, a login and a coherently matching password. The systems that Behe describe that create demarcations for the edge of evolution, and those systems are those of coherent novelty. Mutants from radiation experiments are examples of incoherent novelty.... So in defense of Bob OH, yes random mutations create novelty (albeit mostly incoherent), but in defense of my ID comrades, it is coherent novelty that may mark the edge of evolution. However, there is a subtlety. James Shapiro shows that many mutations may not be random and maybe adaptive. That is, the organism senses an environmental stress and then invokes mutational strategies to reinvent itself. These are adaptive mutations. I think there is a lot of evidence for these sort of mutations. The human immune system (which Behe describes) uses an adaptive mutational strategy to create protein binding sits for threatening substances which the body has never seen before. This is an adaptive mutation internal to the organism, but not at the popluation level. However, if populations are also designed, then there is nothing stopping the possibiliy of pre-programmed front loaded adaptive evolution. Shapiro's work suggests evidence in that direction.scordova
July 20, 2007
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Secondly, there are several examples of mutations leading to novel features.
Would you be so kind as to point out which of the examples (Nylonase, etc.) is actually beyond Behe's claimed EOE? (Or any EOE proposed, in print, by an ID theorist?) They all seem like basic changes, within the power of blind search. It is disingenuous to claim this as evidence for any sort of large-scale macro-evolution. It is like pointing to rust on my car and saying "See, changes have been documented to occur on a car by blind mechanisms. Therefore, internal-combustion engines could have been built by the same mechanisms." Or even better, a wheel falling off, and you discovering a new "spark-shooting" function under my car (as it grinds on the road), then making the same claim about engines.Atom
July 20, 2007
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Indeed, his peer-reviewed stuff (i.e Snokes & Behe) shows nicely that mutation can act quickly enough.
I disagree. Behe himself claims that EOE is an extension of the work done in that paper and that the empirical results confirm his theoretical work in that paper. (He said this in either EOE or in his replies to critics on his amazon blog - I can't remember which it was.)Atom
July 20, 2007
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Dawkins said: Natural selection is arguably the most momentous idea ever to occur to a human mind, I wonder if he realizes that Edmin Blythe, a Creationist, came up with the idea before Darwin. To Bob O'H, What is that data which demonstrates any amount of mutations can account for the physiological and anatomical differences observed between chimps and humans? Yes natural selection and mutations occur. However all the scientific data we have demonstrate the best they can produce is wobbling stability. And it appears that the only way around that is to just ignore it.Joseph
July 20, 2007
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Thirdly, what else is there other than mutation? A metaphorical touch of the finger of the telic entity.rrf
July 20, 2007
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jerry - Firstly, and this might surprise you, Behe's work is not universally accepted. Indeed, his peer-reviewed stuff (i.e Snokes & Behe) shows nicely that mutation can act quickly enough. Secondly, there are several examples of mutations leading to novel features. Thirdly, what else is there other than mutation? We know they can happen. We can make changes in organisms with them, the differences in DNA we see look like they are due to mutation (I'm including things like gene duplication in this: it's a population geneticist's prerogative). So, we have direct and circumstantial evidence to back this up. What do you have that's better? BobBob O'H
July 20, 2007
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Salvador, Is Dawkins really saying this. The implications are that all the varieties for the various species are already in the genome (wings and all) and just has to be teased out by natural selection given the right environmental/ecological conditions. Does this mean that Dawkins believes in a form of front loading?jerry
July 20, 2007
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gpuccio: The number 500 is in reality the number of bits, not of nucleotides. From reading Spetner, Wm Dembski and Stephen Meyer, I was under the impression that one nucleotide = 1 bit. Lookslike I will have to re-read them...Joseph
July 20, 2007
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