BREAKING/DEVELOPING: Russia invades Ukraine

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Wikipedia initial map of the invasion, especially note a reported incursion from western Belarus and the main weight of reported bombings and incursions in the eastern trans-Dnieper region, the DonBass

Russian forces have launched a military assault on neighbouring Ukraine, crossing its borders and bombing military targets near big cities.
A residential building in Chuguev was destroyed after it was shelled.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that Moscow’s response will be “instant” if anyone tries to take on Russia.
Ukraine has urged the UN “to do everything possible” to stop what it says is a full-scale war.

We could title this, the geostrategic price of weakness, starting with the USA. Recall here, my 2016 framework:

Of course as this seems overnight the fog of war is very much in effect and we need to bear in mind that we are unlikely to have a full or reliable picture. DEVELOPING, UPDATES TO FOLLOW

U/D Feb 25, a map of the course of the invasion:

Wikipedia’s updated but provisional map c Feb 24, showing reported lines of thrust. Note, provisional

U/D Feb 27: Wiki Map Feb 26

Wiki map c Feb 26, showing lodgement areas, thrusts and move to decapitate by taking Kiev

U/D Feb 28, let’s insert the Feb 28 Wiki map to compare:

U/D Feb 27: HT Daily Mail, a map of detail fighting near Kiev:

HT, Daily Mail, on fighting near Kiev. Seizing an airport as an air head is a known standard modern tactic for the side with air superiority. Compare Bagram in Afghanistan and its abandonment just before the US fleeing from Afghanistan

U/D, Feb 27: Geostrategic considerations:

U/D Feb 28, Putin puts nuke forces to high alert, issues implied threats, even as he agrees to talks — vid:

U/D Mar 1: Overnight on the updated operational situation map at Wikipedia:

Update overnight Feb 28/Mar 1. We see a bridgehead across the Dnieper in the South coming from Crimea, with a column advancing NW. To the N, a cluster of breakouts on the E bank are beginning to fan out and another is joining with the enclave to the E. Other columns are pushing in from the N and E, and the siege of Kharkov and Kiev are also underway. Air strikes cluster on Kiev but are spread across the whole country.

U/D, March 3: The already taken zones are being consolidated and extended and columns are surging out. Most notably, from Crimea to the West, and the thrust to Kiev is being broadened.

U/D Mar 4: VDH analyses, pivoting on the Javelin anti-tank missile:

U/D March 5, map is revised on Mar 3rd:

Notice here fresh probes from White Russia, a thrust to the W along a major road net towards Poland, a swing back towards Kiev for a thrust that was apparently aiming to pinch off a chunk of Northern Ukraine continued columns from the NE and the continuation of the western breakout from Crimea. Kiev and Kharkov seem to be holding,

U/D2 Mar 5, a Daily Mail Map:

This Daily Mail map is more outline and differs in details but tells the same basic story.

U/D May 8, a screen shot from Russian TV with a marked up encirclement in the E:

Oh yes, apparently there is an enemies list:

All EU member States,
The USA
Australia
Albania
Andorra
Czech Republic
Great Britain (including Jersey, Anguilla, British Virgin Islands and Gibraltar)
Iceland
Canada
Liechtenstein
Micronesia
Monaco
New Zealand
Norway
Republic of Korea
San Marino
North Macedonia
Singapore
Taiwan
Ukraine
Montenegro
Switzerland
Japan

They left off a raft of UK OT’s there, including Cayman, Montserrat, Turks and Caicos Islands, Bermuda, Isle of Man, Falklands, Pitcairn, St Helena, South Georgia etc. I guess they list where their offshore accounts are and got frozen?

U/D March 9, Putin in Southern Africa as a trainer for guerilla leaders, 1973:

This is my comment on an iHarare piece brought to my attention by people inclined to cheer on anything that is suggested as aiding liberation from Western Imperialism. An objection was made in the combox, that Putin’s age would be 20-ish and his official life story puts him in law school at relevant times. I noted that he was KGB and we can expect contradictory narratives, where the window is that in which military service is likely. The association with two African Presidents of the left is noteworthy. I suggest, assume it is not in fact Putin, that would only lead to, Russians were engaged in geostrategic pushes in guise of liberation movements, some of which have proved disastrous for ordinary people in certain African countries. The geostrategic point remains.

U/D: Wiki map, March 6, showing armoured thrusts far beyond the zones identified in a Russian proposal for ceasefire terms. Notice, these are by and large conservative relative to what has been shown on Russian TV, scroll up:

U/D, Mar 15 – 20: Russian forces consolidate while keeping Kiev under pressure:

The consolidation ratchets up pressure on Ukraine, the attacks on the capital can lead to decision, negotiations seem stalled over Russia’s demand for neutrality, which has already been seen as invitation to invasion. Sanctions have been put in place but are seldom decisive.