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BREAKING/DEVELOPING: Russia invades Ukraine

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Wikipedia initial map of the invasion, especially note a reported incursion from western Belarus and the main weight of reported bombings and incursions in the eastern trans-Dnieper region, the DonBass

BBC announces:

Russian forces have launched a military assault on neighbouring Ukraine, crossing its borders and bombing military targets near big cities.

A residential building in Chuguev was destroyed after it was shelled.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that Moscow’s response will be “instant” if anyone tries to take on Russia.

Ukraine has urged the UN “to do everything possible” to stop what it says is a full-scale war.

We could title this, the geostrategic price of weakness, starting with the USA. Recall here, my 2016 framework:

Of course as this seems overnight the fog of war is very much in effect and we need to bear in mind that we are unlikely to have a full or reliable picture. DEVELOPING, UPDATES TO FOLLOW

U/D Feb 25, a map of the course of the invasion:

Wikipedia’s updated but provisional map c Feb 24, showing reported lines of thrust. Note, provisional

U/D Feb 27: Wiki Map Feb 26

Wiki map c Feb 26, showing lodgement areas, thrusts and move to decapitate by taking Kiev

U/D Feb 28, let’s insert the Feb 28 Wiki map to compare:

U/D Feb 27: HT Daily Mail, a map of detail fighting near Kiev:

HT, Daily Mail, on fighting near Kiev. Seizing an airport as an air head is a known standard modern tactic for the side with air superiority. Compare Bagram in Afghanistan and its abandonment just before the US fleeing from Afghanistan

U/D, Feb 27: Geostrategic considerations:

U/D Feb 28, Putin puts nuke forces to high alert, issues implied threats, even as he agrees to talks — vid:

U/D Mar 1: Overnight on the updated operational situation map at Wikipedia:

Update overnight Feb 28/Mar 1. We see a bridgehead across the Dnieper in the South coming from Crimea, with a column advancing NW. To the N, a cluster of breakouts on the E bank are beginning to fan out and another is joining with the enclave to the E. Other columns are pushing in from the N and E, and the siege of Kharkov and Kiev are also underway. Air strikes cluster on Kiev but are spread across the whole country.

U/D, March 3: The already taken zones are being consolidated and extended and columns are surging out. Most notably, from Crimea to the West, and the thrust to Kiev is being broadened.

U/D Mar 4: VDH analyses, pivoting on the Javelin anti-tank missile:

U/D March 5, map is revised on Mar 3rd:

Notice here fresh probes from White Russia, a thrust to the W along a major road net towards Poland, a swing back towards Kiev for a thrust that was apparently aiming to pinch off a chunk of Northern Ukraine continued columns from the NE and the continuation of the western breakout from Crimea. Kiev and Kharkov seem to be holding,

U/D2 Mar 5, a Daily Mail Map:

This Daily Mail map is more outline and differs in details but tells the same basic story.

U/D May 8, a screen shot from Russian TV with a marked up encirclement in the E:

Oh yes, apparently there is an enemies list:

  • All EU member States,
  • The USA
  • Australia
  • Albania
  • Andorra
  • Czech Republic
  • Great Britain (including Jersey, Anguilla, British Virgin Islands and Gibraltar)
  • Iceland
  • Canada
  • Liechtenstein
  • Micronesia
  • Monaco
  • New Zealand
  • Norway
  • Republic of Korea
  • San Marino
  • North Macedonia
  • Singapore
  • Taiwan
  • Ukraine
  • Montenegro
  • Switzerland
  • Japan

They left off a raft of UK OT’s there, including Cayman, Montserrat, Turks and Caicos Islands, Bermuda, Isle of Man, Falklands, Pitcairn, St Helena, South Georgia etc. I guess they list where their offshore accounts are and got frozen?

U/D March 9, Putin in Southern Africa as a trainer for guerilla leaders, 1973:

This is my comment on an iHarare piece brought to my attention by people inclined to cheer on anything that is suggested as aiding liberation from Western Imperialism. An objection was made in the combox, that Putin’s age would be 20-ish and his official life story puts him in law school at relevant times. I noted that he was KGB and we can expect contradictory narratives, where the window is that in which military service is likely. The association with two African Presidents of the left is noteworthy. I suggest, assume it is not in fact Putin, that would only lead to, Russians were engaged in geostrategic pushes in guise of liberation movements, some of which have proved disastrous for ordinary people in certain African countries. The geostrategic point remains.

U/D: Wiki map, March 6, showing armoured thrusts far beyond the zones identified in a Russian proposal for ceasefire terms. Notice, these are by and large conservative relative to what has been shown on Russian TV, scroll up:

U/D, Mar 15 – 20: Russian forces consolidate while keeping Kiev under pressure:

The consolidation ratchets up pressure on Ukraine, the attacks on the capital can lead to decision, negotiations seem stalled over Russia’s demand for neutrality, which has already been seen as invitation to invasion. Sanctions have been put in place but are seldom decisive.

Comments
A very recent update on a topic that once was paramount and now is “what are you talking about.” The interesting thing is our need to move on from existential things to trivial things such as I gotcha you on this. Is it because some existential things bore us? Is there something in this that is relevant to information and just what is information? For example, is information different from knowledge? And is either material or not? Are there endless discussions going on around quantum mechanics and it’s implications mainly because no one really understands it? I have seen several discussions and most come down to it is real but we really don’t know how it is real. Does this point to a difference between information and knowledge? At the moment few understand what’s going on in the Ukraine. But we have lots of facts/information. But it has nothing to do with our understanding/lack of understanding of existence. So, now it’s “Huh?” while a short time ago we couldn’t wait till we posted the next comment on it. The latest? https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-30jerry
July 1, 2022
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BREAKING/SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT? https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-prepared-discuss-neutrality-status-zelenskiy-tells-russian-journalists-2022-03-27/ >>Ukraine is prepared to discuss adopting a neutral status as part of a peace deal with Russia but such a pact would have to be guaranteed by third parties and put to a referendum, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in remarks aired on Sunday. Zelenskiy was speaking to Russian journalists in a 90 minute video call, an interview that Moscow authorities had pre-emptively warned Russian media to refrain from reporting. Zelenskiy spoke in Russian throughout, as he has done in previous speeches when targeting a Russian audience. Zelenskiy said Russia's invasion had caused the destruction of Russian-speaking cities in Ukraine, with damage worse than the Russian wars in Chechnya. "Security guarantees and neutrality, non-nuclear status of our state. We are ready to go for it. This is the most important point," Zelenskiy said. Zelenskiy said Ukraine refused to discuss certain other Russian demands, such as the demilitarisation of the country. Speaking more than a month after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, Zelenskiy said no peace deal would be possible without a ceasefire and troop withdrawals. He ruled out trying to recapture all Russian-held territory by force, saying it would lead to a third world war, and said he wanted to reach a "compromise" over the eastern Donbas region, held by Russian-backed forces since 2014.>> KFkairosfocus
March 28, 2022
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I bet both sides are using ArcGIS or the like to manage the geospatial dimension of the fighting.kairosfocus
March 25, 2022
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Jerry, the current Wiki map is similar but more continuous. Nowadays, with the degree of communication technology available, they do know pretty much where control is, but that will be highly classified, the openly available maps will be less exact. And as it is one of the mud times that from my teen days of playing war games were first hammered home into memory, there is an operational pause due to the mud. Notice, a pinch-off of E of Dnieper is a logical next move, and they already have converging pincers on the Capital. I think that is meant to be implicit the real thing is probably to get a Finland South. KFkairosfocus
March 25, 2022
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Latest map? Do even the Russians or Ukrainians know? https://mobile.twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1506736584305090570jerry
March 24, 2022
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Jerry, scroll up to the latest map. It is Raspituta right now, mud time but the Russians have taken and consolidated a dominating half ring E of Dnieper, they can pinch that off, and they may be able to take the rest of the coast. Kiev is under siege, but that can be sustained. The Russians are in position to drive a bargain, though it has cost more than I think they expected. But that's war. Not nice, but war is like that. KFkairosfocus
March 22, 2022
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Who is actually winning in Ukraine? Hard to get accurate information. Bill Roggio, one of the most knowledgeable persons in the world on military operations offers his opinion. For years Roggio would appear on the John Batchelor show to provide the latest information on terrorism. He still does so but now has added Ukraine with interview with Freddie Sayers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmXKNzIYHtk&t=21s Peace? https://audioboom.com/posts/8052046-ukraine-rumors-of-peace-in-ankara-aykan-erdemir-aykanerdemir-aykan_erdemir-fdd-adl Aside: John Batchelor and Freddy Sayers are two excellent places to keep up with the world. One aspect that hasn’t got much attention is that a lot of this conflict centers around Russia wanting to control the Back Sea. Odessa is as much a target as Kyiv.jerry
March 22, 2022
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Here is an interesting article about possible future conflict in Europe.
Vladimir Putin’s Ever-Darkening Room
https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/qed/2022/03/vladimir-putins-ever-darkening-room/jerry
March 21, 2022
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U/D Mar 15 - 20: Map Mar 15 shows consolidation, the pressure on Ukraine grows. KFkairosfocus
March 21, 2022
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Apparently Putin wrote a long article last year justifying why Ukraine is actually historically part of Russia. And part of it was religious, Russian Orthodox vs Roman Catholic. It’s a history. Others will have to determine how accurate it is.
The problem with going back into history like that is that a lot happened. So if Putin really wants to argue that there should be historical boundaries, he should hand St. Petersburg back to the Swedes. The up side of that is that Her Majesty can claim rather a lot of back tax from you USians. Plus compensation for what you did to the tea.Bob O'H
March 21, 2022
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Denazification of Ukraine is necessary. https://twitter.com/Youblacksoul/status/1504596675746271233Lieutenant Commander Data
March 20, 2022
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A discussion on the Russian military in Ukraine https://www.bitchute.com/video/u5YevpOS7t4/kairosfocus
March 18, 2022
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Jerry, the history is complex, especially as the origin of the Rus-sian state is with Swedish vikings who went east. Rus was founded in Kiev and the conversion of Vladimir was pivotal to the Orthodoxy-State alliance. Muscovy was a Dukedom. In the 1600's there was a Polish-Lithuanian confederacy that held much of today's Ukraine, and an uprising of the emergent Cossaks led to alliance with Muscovy. But post 1918, all of that is moot. The ruinous clash of dynastic claims led to disintegration of the Russian, German, Austrian and Ottoman empires and establishment of popular nationalism. It is clear the Ukrainians hold a different identity, in key part have a different mother tongue, and do not wish to be under Moscow. There is no excuse for Putin and dredging around in the murky past does not change where we are or the consequences of playing geostrategic vulture. KFkairosfocus
March 16, 2022
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Apparently Putin wrote a long article last year justifying why Ukraine is actually historically part of Russia. And part of it was religious, Russian Orthodox vs Roman Catholic. It’s a history. Others will have to determine how accurate it is.
The final outcome was sealed by the Treaty of Perpetual Peace in 1686. The Russian state incorporated the city of Kiev and the lands on the left bank of the Dnieper River, including Poltava region, Chernigov region, and Zaporozhye. Their inhabitants were reunited with the main part of the Russian Orthodox people. These territories were referred to as ”Malorossia“ (Little Russia). The name ”Ukraine“ was used more often in the meaning of the Old Russian word ”okraina“ (periphery), which is found in written sources from the 12th century, referring to various border territories. And the word ”Ukrainian“, judging by archival documents, originally referred to frontier guards who protected the external borders
https://russiaeu.ru/en/news/article-russian-president-vladimir-putin-historical-unity-russians-and-ukrainians Could something similar be said about Spain and Portugal? Someone told me once, they can read each other’s newspapers but couldn’t understand each other’s dialects. Then in Spain, there are four separate languages spoken.jerry
March 14, 2022
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Shocking footage of Russian killing innocent Ukrainians: https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/1502786934564921345Lieutenant Commander Data
March 13, 2022
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William J Murray/238
How a journalist gets expelled from the European Parliament when asking the Assistant Secretary at the US Department of Health questions about the Pentagon bio laboratories around Russia, China and Iran – back in 2018. Then gets smeared as “fake news.”
Interesting. And just what are we supposed to make of this? If the allegation is that the Pentagon has built "bio laboratories" - which I assume is shorthand for bioweapons laboratories - then the product of such research is going to be both of value to the US and, in the wrong hands, a serious threat. That being the case, why on Earth would they site them in - or even near to - what are at the very least adversary states? As for fake news smears, you can read this about journalist Dilyana Gaytandzhieva.
Dilyana Gaytandzhieva is a Bulgarian journalist who released an investigative material titled “The Pentagon Bio-Weapons” on an English-language portal South Front on January 16, 2018. The portal is administered from Russia and it is registered on Russian domain, which frequently publishes conspiracy theories about military issues and intelligence. The same material in Russian was published by a web portal ????????? ????? (News Front), which recognizes the independence of Donbass and notes that the purpose of the edition is to defend the interests of Russian civilization. […] Before August 2017, Gaytandzhieva worked for a Bulgarian newspaper ????, where she released an article on July 4, 2017 about the Bulgarian Foreign Ministry allegedly corresponding with the Azerbaijani Embassy to Bulgaria on supplying weapons to terrorists in Syria through diplomatic flights. She also claimed that the United States, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and other countries were also involved in the process. The article by Gaytandzhieva was reposted by Bulgarian print media, 80% of which is controlled by pro-Russian oligarch and member of the Bulgarian Parliament, Delyan Peevski. According to the Bulgarian media outlets, the companies affiliated with Delyan Peevski were involved in the construction of the South Stream, a pipeline projectto transport natural gas of the Russian Federation to Europe via Bulgaria, which actually represented an alternative to a Western-backed proposal for a pipeline, called Nabucco. Nabucco would have reduced Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. Before working for ???? newspaper, Gaytandzhieva worked for the fourth most-watched Bulgarian television channel TV7, which was controlled by Tsvetan Vassilev, the main shareholder in Corporate Commercial Bank. In 2013, 9.9% of Corpbank shares were purchased by Russia’s largest bank VTB. In 2016, Bulgaria filed a $1.3 billion lawsuit against Tsvetan Vassilev, accusing him of using bank funds to acquire property and other assets that led to a subsequent liquidity crisis at the bank. In 2015, TV7 was taken over by Louvrier Investment Company, managedby Pierre Louvrier. The latter has links to Russian oligarch, Konstantin Malofeev who has been sanctioned by the European Union for his “financial support to separatists” in Eastern Ukraine. Simultaneously, Malofeev owns a conservative TV channel in Russia, ???????? ?? with Aleksandr Dugin being its editor-in-chief in 2015-2016.
Seversky
March 13, 2022
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Jerry, the problem is the great plain, compounded by settlements by diverse and often mutually hostile peoples, further compounded by the history that lawless oligarchy is the natural form of government. The American and Australian plains came under unified rule from the beginning. Within Britain, a similar contest played out on a lesser scale until the English prevailed, at first under a Scottish king, James VI, known to us as James I. On the European plain, who rules what span has been contested since the first great European Empire, Rome. Augustus lost three legions trying to go beyond the Rhine and this was long term fatal. There are no natural coastal or mountain or desert barriers that determine who dominate the plain, but the dominant powers coming into the early modern era were the Spanish, French, Austrian, Polish-Lithuanian [who held much of Ukraine], Russian and Ottoman. The Spanish were defeated, the Poles too. The Swedish intervention ultimately failed. The British played balance of power and had a 600 year geostrategic contest with the French, only resolved in 1905. Poles, Ukrainians and others typically have been under split and subjugation. Prussia emerged and in 1871 unified the northern Germans, with the geostrategic problem of no natural borders to E or W. Post 1914 - 18, the Russian, Austrian, Ottoman and German monarchical empires collapsed. This, at just the point where as Mackinder drew out, the E Europe pivot area of the Eurasian landmass, through rail, telegraph and telephone, provided a potential world dominating continental power base, that would counter weight the maritime global power that emerged from the era of discovery starting with Columbus and da Gama, Magellan et al. C20 can be seen as the period of two German grabs and one Russian counter grab that did dominate the heartland for 40+ years but due to a fatally flawed economic system could not develop it. Putin seems to be trying for a second Russian grab. The Ukrainians and Poles are in the way. KF PS, it strikes me that Daniel's prophetic exposition of Nebuchadnezzar's vision in Ch 2 of his book, sees this in advance. The iron-clay fractured extension of the obvious Roman Empire, Western Civilisation, aptly describes the past 500+ to 1500+ years.kairosfocus
March 13, 2022
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An interesting history of Ukraine. It has always been between two powers and thus divided up by those on both sides depending on who was in ascendancy .
Since World War II, the violent changing of European borders has been considered taboo, given the cascade of turmoil that could follow. For that reason, 2014 was, in a sense, a pivotal year, as Eastern Europe again saw borders altered by violence and the threat of force, as part of Ukraine (Crimea) was annexed by Russia. In light of continuing conflict, we look back at that disruptive event, and the continuing ramifications brought up by it.
https://www.thegreatcoursesdaily.com/a-look-back-at-the-history-of-ukraine-russia-conflict-as-tensions-continue-to-rise/jerry
March 13, 2022
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KF@24, agreed. But if the US is getting low on oil, Canada has plenty to provide. Too bad the US stopped the installation of the pipeline needed to get it there.Scamp
March 12, 2022
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From a very prominent lefty who thinks Biden is great and believes Ukraine could win the war. https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/ Should investors start selling short oil and gas futures? Is there such a thing?jerry
March 12, 2022
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WJM, I would suggest there is a problem with elites, officialdom, the universities, the media, the financial system, courts, policing, government etc and that implies a good slice of the investor class, not any one family and particularly one with the history of being pounced on as poster child for race hate. KFkairosfocus
March 11, 2022
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LCD, the build up has been public knowledge for months and effects on energy markets would be clear. The current US regime predicted for a week before it happened. Speculating on oil futures would not be insider trading and likely a lot of money was doing much the same. KFkairosfocus
March 11, 2022
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Numerous politicians purchased oil and war stocks before the invasion of Ukraine. https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1502043371929432065Lieutenant Commander Data
March 11, 2022
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How a journalist gets expelled from the European Parliament when asking the Assistant Secretary at the US Department of Health questions about the Pentagon bio laboratories around Russia, China and Iran - back in 2018. Then gets smeared as "fake news." http://twtr.domain.glass/dgaytandzhieva/status/971559546085953536#mWilliam J Murray
March 11, 2022
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KF said:
It is therefore fair comment for me to note that.
The Rothschilds are as evil as it gets, and it has nothing to do with whether or not they are Jewish. If you don't know this, you're hopelessly ignorant of what is actually going on in the world, and are just as bad as those who know what evil they are committing. The Clintons are as evil as it gets. Barack Obama is as evil as they come. So is Maduro. I guess I'm all kinds of racist, eh? You're the one whose mind instantly went to racism, and then attempted to smear me with that taint, THEN you tried to justify it using the very tactic you deplore in others. A good person would just have apologized. You're not a good person if you're going to defend or provide cover for what that family has been doing for hundreds of years by waving the flag of "anti-semitism" to protect them.William J Murray
March 11, 2022
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WJM, you led the list with that. As objectors are liable to pounce, I as thread owner need to make it crystal clear that this is a bright red line. If you look you will see that the backdrop of much European antisemitism targetted that family and its branches, I guess the single most prominent Jewish family of recent generations. It is therefore fair comment for me to note that. Had you said Biden or the like, different matter. And you betcha I am very sensitive to anti-Jewish hostility and what invites, even if inadvertently and I am willing to accept that you intended it as talking to elites and influencers not ethnicity. But, you misplayed inviting the penumbra to attack. KFkairosfocus
March 11, 2022
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F/N: Looks like Ukraine is posing key concessions: https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220308-in-nod-to-russia-ukraine-says-no-longer-insisting-on-nato-membership?ref=tw
Washington (AFP) – President Volodymyr Zelensky said he is no longer pressing for NATO membership for Ukraine, a delicate issue that was one of Russia's stated reasons for invading its pro-Western neighbor. In another apparent nod aimed at placating Moscow, Zelensky said he is open to "compromise" on the status of two breakaway pro-Russian territories that President Vladimir Putin recognized as independent just before unleashing the invasion on February 24. "I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago after we understood that ... NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine," Zelensky said in an interview aired Monday night on ABC News. "The alliance is afraid of controversial things, and confrontation with Russia," the president added. Referring to NATO membership, Zelensky said through an interpreter that he does not want to be president of a "country which is begging something on its knees."
Developing, it seems. Is this going to be a Finland, South situation? You fought hard, that leads to limited Russian demands, 1940 and 44. For sure if Putin escalates further, that is going to be a very bad sign indeed. KFkairosfocus
March 11, 2022
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KF said:
I note that picking on Rothschilds is perilously close to antisemitism.
Only in the mind of a racist. Smearing me with the taint of anti-semitism? Using the very tactics of those you profess to warn others against? I used to think you were one of the good guys, KF. Now I see that you are not.William J Murray
March 11, 2022
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WJM, perhaps, it is relevant that there was at the time a major investment from esp the US, to redirect WMD facilities and staff in the former USSR to more peaceful occupation, which lends basic plausibility. That such repurposed facilities exist is therefore unsurprising. As noted, I have concern that they can be or may have been used to offshore dangerous research, though not as serious as at Wuhan, a level 4 facility. Even with the deep American state, I will not presume malfeasance just on say so by Putin et al, especially when there is context over the past 25+ years that was in the news repeatedly. This is actually similar to my stance in response to Hitler's 1939 reply to Roosevelt, in which he blamed the US, Britain and France for their evils, which were many. For all their wrongs, they were very much the lesser of evils and the locus for positive onward transformation. This was sadly manifest to all in 1945, but notice, many colonial people and blacks in the US fought with the allies for good reason. Ponder here the role of the Indian Army and its volunteer status. KF PS, I have paid zero attention to Gaga et al or many media voices [what are their geostrategy and history qualifications]. I note that picking on Rothschilds is perilously close to antisemitism. Putin has earned a reputation as a geostrategic vulture and wild card, note in OP my 2016 evaluation. You tell me whether I was wrong then to highlight Russia as a source of instability and danger as opposed to reformation?kairosfocus
March 11, 2022
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It appears that KF will accept the information coming from the deep state when it supports his particular worldview, and dismiss it when it does not. The US funded and participated in the creation of bio-weapons in Wuhan under the same auspices of anticipating potential future problems, and whips up mass hysteria about COVID-19 with what is now known to be pure propaganda, denying at first it ever had anything to do with it. KF's apparent personal opinion of Putin, and his concept of Putin's motivations, was/is ALSO apparently generated by the deep state-produced propaganda teams and their mainstream media cohorts over the years. We find MORE bio-labs funded by US in a completely corrupt country entirely run by the Khazarian mafia, and KF thinks it could all be totally innocent because the deep state says so. Oh, this is rich. The deep state and the world-wide cartel of elites have been trying to get us to hate Putin and Russia for many years now. Why? Remember the whole "Putin manipulated the election to get his puppet, Trump, installed" thing? Totally false narrative produced by the deep state. Talk about cognitive dissonance. KF is now parroting the Rothschilds, the Deep State, Lady Gaga, George Soros, and all the corrupt elites chanting, "there is no excuse for this! Putin is evil! Putin must go!"William J Murray
March 11, 2022
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