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UD LIVE EVENT — US Election Nov 3, 2020: predictions, tracking live, projections, reflections/thoughts

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This election in the US is at a kairos for not only the US but our civilisation. What do you think, why? (Recall, UD makes no endorsements and no “un-dorsements” either, but we are aware that the seven mountains of power and influence strongly interact with worldviews and cultural agendas raising issues of alternatives.)

So, as I am primarily a visual thinker, let’s start with:

Are we facing this?

Or, is this more relevant?

Of Lemmings, marches of folly and cliffs of self-falsifying absurdity . . .

Is this colour revolution issue — courtesy a framework developed by the US Special Operations Command — relevant?

Framework of thought is always an issue:

Here, is a provocative projection that runs counter to the current of the usual polling and punditry that were so spectacularly wrong in 2016:

U/D: I add a map from 270 to win:

(This map has an interactive roll your own feature so you can make your own model.)

Overnight:

Where do we think things will go? Where are they going? Where does all of this lead? END

PS: Mr Trump’s lawyer speaks on legal actions initiated and concerns regarding breakdown of electoral integrity as the election moves to the lawfare phase:

Turley raises pointed questions, contrasting the performance of states and what it opens up. Notice an incident. You do not have to believe the particulars of this claimed incident with a claimed whistleblower, to see that the fraudulent mechanism described is feasible for mail-in votes, so called. Which, should have been manifest from the outset, so the issue is why was this allowed through?

PPS: Detroit lawsuit — this would be laughable if its import was not so destructive:

U/D Nov 8: The Hopkins Affidavit

U/D2 Nov 8: An image showing the vote jump in MI overnight Nov3/4 2020, which — 5:45 pm here — on an objection from MMT apparently rooted in Snopes; which I find to be partially correct but still missing the key issue, I adjust as follows:

U/D3, Nov 8: The vote cliff phenomenon:

U/D4 Nov 9: A reminder from 2000, a screen shot of the last media called election fiasco:

CORRECTION AND COMMENT, Nov 10: On Google image search, I observed a Wa Po article on this image. It is plausible that it is a current construction, with particulars that have errors. That said, such makes no material difference to the focal point, as can be seen from my clip of History dot com, at 477 below:

After a wild election night on November 7, 2000, during which TV networks first called the key state of Florida for Gore, [–> got that? {I add: FL was then pivotal — notice, “the key state” — so calling that state implied a Gore win}] then for Bush, followed by a concession by Gore that was soon rescinded [–> got that too?], the results for who would be the nation’s 43rd president were simply too close to call.

In the 36 days that followed, Americans learned Gore had won the popular vote by 543,895 votes. But it’s winning the Electoral College that counts. [–> because it balances big and small state interests in a federated republic that is a union of states in their own right not mere provinces of a unitary state] As accusations of fraud and voter suppression, calls for recounts and the filing of lawsuits ensued, the terms “hanging chads,” “dimpled chads” and “pregnant chads” became part of the lexicon. [–> I forgot the pregnant chads one]

Andrew E. Busch, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and co-author of The Perfect Tie: The True Story of the 2000 Presidential Election, says as votes were counted and Bush’s lead grew, TV networks retracted their premature call of Gore, instead giving the state to Bush.

“When the lead shrank to about 2,000 votes in the early hours of the morning, TV reversed again, rescinded the call for Bush, and declared Florida as yet undetermined,” he says. “The initial problem was failure of the exit polls, for which they later overcompensated.”

U/D5, Nov 9: The Chinese observer in Detroit’s testimony on what she saw:

U/D6, Nov 9: Trump Campaign spokespeople make first remarks about their case, with particular focus on PA, also with further remarks on TCF, Detroit MI (where the above observer discussed). This includes Ms McEnany on the general manipulation of elections and this one:

U/D7, Nov 10: Timeline plots of vote trends that support concerns that Mail-in votes were conducive to and seem to have enabled manipulation of results in key states. Obviously, it is the courts that will resolve legal cases, but it is the watching public’s right to look and analyse for ourselves, drawing our own conclusions:

It is well worth noting, from an article on how the insistence on mail-in votes with inadequate safeguards and the rise of ballot harvesting were conducive to undermining the credibility and integrity of the election:

. . . the record reveals a Democrat Party that has fervently pursued policies to undermine accountability in the voting process.

Under these resulting novel conditions, which have been implemented across the nation in recent months, no less than Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito affirmed last week that “serious post-election problems” were predictable.

Indeed, Attorney General Bill Barr sounded the alarm in September, affirming to Wolf Blitzer of CNN that the mail-in voting schemes being advanced across the nation are “reckless and dangerous,” and “as a matter of logic,” are “very open to fraud and coercion.” He cited a 2009 bipartisan study that affirmed his points, adding this understanding was broadly accepted until “this (Trump) administration came in.”

In the face of well-documented cases of election fraud, Heritage Foundation senior fellow Hans A. von Spakovsky has also charged “many in the media” with wishing to avoid the heavy reality of this fundamental issue with a “‘move-along, nothing-to-see-here’ narrative” . . . .

In May, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-California, stated her desire that “governing bodies … send a ballot to every registered voter,” and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-New York, affirmed he was “all in” on the plan for this enterprise as well.

When Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom mandated that “every Californian” should be sent “a mail-in ballot for (the) November election,” Hillary Clinton praised him, encouraging “other governors around the country to follow (his) lead.”

An investigation of these efforts at the state level reveals the same urgency and insistence to adopt policies that will naturally create conditions where there are greater vulnerabilities for fraud . . . .

Michigan

Michigan has a typical state law that sought to prevent “ballot harvesting,” the practice of individuals collecting multiple ballots from the vulnerable, such as the elderly, often through coercion or intimidation, and potentially discarding them. Thus, according to statute, only particular individuals, such as family, friends, and mail carriers, may transmit a person’s absentee ballot to the appropriate clerk.

In September, after a challenge by left-leaning organizations in the state, a Michigan judge overruled these safeguards, calling them “unconstitutional” and allowing voters to “choose” anyone to return their ballots. The judge also ruled that any ballot postmarked by November 2 would be valid no matter when it arrived.

Such patterns of behaviour, including by judges, raise significant concerns. Would the same judge accept loosening of safeguards on how a run of the mill coop bank handles cash and accounts? The question answers itself.

U/D8, Nov 11 (Armistice Day + 102 years): Let us ponder a further timeline, counting of late votes in PA reported by statistician William Briggs:

Here, key comments:

I think there are clear signs that something untoward happened in the Keystone State. Here are a couple of telling examples.

I’ve gotten official county-level timed voting data that started at 11:00 on November 4, the day after the election, to 11:29 on November 7, which is Saturday. So, these are all late vote counts. They start, county by county, where the vote left off on election night . . . .

The early gains for Biden are mainly from Philadelphia, Allegheny, Montgomery, Chester and Berks counties. A simple plot (click to see: it’s large) shows the size of vote additions for both candidates, when new vote totals (greater than 0) were added by county (and not all counties added votes after election day).

All goes well for Trump until election night, November 4, at 9:15 pm, when he loses just under 10,000 votes. Curiously, this loss is from three different counties simultaneously: -1,063 in Allegheny; -2,972 in Bucks; -7,135 in Chester. Biden never lost any votes (at least, not in this late voting).

This does not mean the decreases happened at that moment. Rather, that’s when they were recorded in the official data. 

Biden’s next curiosity was the big increase of 27,396 votes on Nov. 6 at 8:53:00 over one consecutive reporting period. This bump is just like the blue-red F-memes you have seen: this only seems more spread out because of the finer time scale used . . . .

These two curiosities account for a 37,263 vote swing for Biden. Biden’s total, as of the end of this data, was 3,344,528, and Trump’s 3,310,326. Biden therefore “won,” in this dataset anyway, by 34,202 votes.

So, three separate counties removed about 10,000 votes from Trump on Wednesday evening. And then late Friday, about 27,000 votes were added for Biden.

This happened after it was clear that this is what Biden would need to push ahead. This needs to be answered.

Then, he went on to look at scale of disparity from 50:50, modified by size of increments, vert: number of votes, Horiz, an index. Blue, B predominates, red, T predominates:

Yes, there are some where T predominates, down in the weeds, the biggest I spot is a bit over 100. Briggs comments:

Trump did come out ahead in the vote additions sometimes, but every single one of the competitions was trivial.[–> this fits with fluctuations with small numbers] They were on the order of 1 vote for Trump, 0 for Biden, or 20 for Trump and 7 for Biden. On the other hand, Biden votes additions were almost always large compared to Trump’s. (But, note: There aren’t any large times where only Biden gained votes. It’s not that obvious.) [–> note the charts for yesterday, PA shows a RAMP, not cliffs and steps]

Still, the huge early additions to Biden are curious.

He continues, commenting on a third plot:

Here are the Biden-Trump additions as they occurred, for six counties which for other reasons appear suspicious. Chester and Cumberland had predominately registered Republicans, and yet Biden supposedly beat Obama (in either term) in vote totals by 20-40%! [–> remember, nationally, T gained 7 mn votes over 2016] The county names appear at the peak of the differences. For example, late on November 4th, Biden received about 40,000 more votes than Trump in Philadelphia county . . .

That peak for Philly on the 6th is the one that pushed Biden ahead, which I mentioned above. You can see in these large counties only one time where more Trump than Biden votes were added, and it’s a trivial amount.

This suggests, as you might expect in a machine town saturated in a history of vote tampering, that investigators should concentrate their efforts on the mail-in ballots in Philly.

The plot:

Which is, of course, a key part of the reason for Justice Alito’s follow up order to preserve such separately when it became clear an earlier order was being flouted.

Bonus, this analysis corroborates the earlier one which showed a RAMP, not cliffs, for PA.

U/D9, Nov 12: A bit of context on 4th Generation war:

First, let us note a mapping framework, to help set the context, timeline and concepts:

Compare, the McFaul-SOCOM colour revolution programme and insurgency escalator (and yes, I know this uses the same image twice, for clarity):

I clip a Wikipedia summary of 4GW elements, on principle of admission against ideological interest:

This will allow us to form a sounder strategic-operational picture of what is happening in the US with its years-in-the-brewing, McFaul colour revolution, in the shadows 4G civil war with global geostrategic implications and vultures circling as well as some lurking in the shadows.

U/D10, on the Benford leading digit(s) pattern:

One of the oddities of life is that naturally occurring most significant digits of numbers for many “natural” situations, do not follow a flat random distribution or a humped in the middle pattern, but a reverse-J distribution, with about 30% of cases having 1 as lead digit, with a following curved taper to 9. The phenomenon is sufficiently striking that it has been used to detect accounting fraud, cooking of GDP data and even cooking of CV-19 data. It has also been used to detect election manipulation . . . including a case of too perfect fit implying second order manipulation to force the cheat to fit the “known” law. At 636 below, I commented:

Let’s pick up on “natural” distributions of numbers and the now notorious Benford pattern natural data signature, 1 as lead digit about 30% of the time, with a curved taper distribution of other lead digits, to 9. Of course, a statistical pattern, not a rigid rule, but then fluctuations kick in . . . .

The Benford pattern is connected to log-normal distributions when numbers get spread across a big enough span of scale, typically by taking products of factors that are randomly spread.

The classic linear Gaussian normal distribution kicks in where small, additive random factors shift around a mean. Log-normal of course comes in as products become additions on logging. Likewise, there is an average product, with scatter on a log scale around that. Logs are truly powerful.

The Benford result apparently comes from that process, with the 30.1% ratio coming from log_10 2, the upper border for lead digit in a floating point/sci notation representation being 1. Log_10 3 is 0.477 to 3 dp, log_10 5 is 0.699 and log_10 9 is 0.954. This is why the taper. Now, if we tamper with a result from a lognormal generating process, typically we will add or subtract, or if we try to randomise we will try to go nearly flat random. It is hard to preserve a log-normal signature. Then, there is the second order trick, fluctuations are natural and too perfect a fit to a model is also suspect. Ask Mendel’s Gardner and Sir Cyril Burt’s ghost. The 2016 Russian election may be a case. It is hard to fake a good enough but not too good a fit, also.

Let’s illustrate:

Such a signature is yet another strand in the rope of cumulative, mutually supportive evidence. It is highly plausible that something went very wrong with this election; which needs to be investigated. And with a suggested 500 affidavits in hand, such may well be going ahead.

Speaking of which, on ropes and chains in argument:

Of chains, ropes and cumulative cases

U/D11: Mr Giuliani, for Mr Trump, speaks in a video, where he summarises the pattern of events spoken to in affidavits etc. Of direct interest to us at UD, from approx minute 19, he summarises the story and scale of a far-fluctuation vote cliff per affidavit he reports:

This video should be pondered i/l/o freshly added comments below, 780 and 781, also 770. I clip from 780, as this matter has been made into a target for dismissive comments, kindly read i/l/o U/D2 above:

Notice in particular, on at penalty of incarceration testimony regarding vote cliffs and steps, consistent with the scatter and linear plots above in OP:

Defendants instructed election workers to not verify signatures on absentee ballots, to backdate absentee ballots, and to process such ballots regardless of their validity. After election officials announced the last absentee ballots had been received, another batch of unsecured and unsealed ballots, without envelopes, arrived in trays at the TCF Center. There were tens of thousands of these absentee ballots, and apparently every ballot was counted and attributed only to Democratic candidates. Defendants instructed election workers to process ballots that appeared after the election deadline and to falsely report that those ballots had been received prior to November 3, 2020 deadline.

Note, again, how there were: “tens of thousands of these absentee ballots, and apparently every ballot was counted and attributed only to Democratic candidates.”

Vote cliff, this implies that there were 100% runs in the 100’s, 1,000’s or even 10,000’s classes. Such runs, if 100% are as calculated and shown in OP already. If the runs, esp at upper end were simply far fluctuation runs, they are just as tellingly unobservable on relevant time, space and event resources by natural chance variation.

Similarly in a video to be shortly added to OP [–> this appears just above], from 19 minutes or so on, there is a description of affidavit, where a bloc of some 100k ballots, with B-vote, president only markings was received by back door approx 4:30 am, and rapidly counted in with hindrance of control checks. These were apparently perceived as all B-votes, duly adjusted by caution to virtually all . . . i.e. far fluctuation . . . B votes. This again fits in with descriptions of GA on 90k+ utterly B-dominant, president only votes, with less than 1k T-votes of the same character; and with the Briggs analysis of 10k+ class blocs of votes in PA that are utterly overwhelmingly B-votes, as is illustrated in the OP.

In short, the far fluctuation vote cliff of 100% and near 100% runs is credibly so on convergent evidence across states and across a continental span.

The attempted skeptical dismissals above fail. Except, insofar as they help us see that we are looking at urban based machine politics with ability to do such.

It is time to face the realities of a seriously flawed election process and in particular strong indicators of willful, election manipulating misconduct that in key cases raises questions of mens rea.

U/D12: The MI voting pattern analysis of Dr Shiva and colleagues. Video:

Scatter-plots are our friends, and so here are some screen captures that help us see a disturbing, red flag pattern:

It is time for a very serious reappraisal of the integrity of the US electoral system. Given the conceptual expectation and confirmation from a hand-counted county, there is reason to expect the conceptual pattern. That the pattern is in fact followed for low- levels- of- support precincts then switches to a down-sloping ramp at ~ 20% is not reasonable, on its face. Especially, when we see a clear further pattern that — unsurprisingly — Mr Trump is more popular than his adopted party, in turn varying from county to county. Perhaps, somehow there is an innocent explanation; that needs to be produced and empirically verified.

U/D13: Complacency about elections is not just an American phenomenon. UK Independent, 2011:

‘Shocking complacency’ from a group safeguarding elections

By Jerome Taylor |

Wednesday 16 February 2011 01:00 |

Today’s report from the Electoral Commission is a bizarre exercise in asking Britain’s voters to keep calm and carry on. Its view is that voting fraud is not widespread because almost no one has been prosecuted for it and that even if fraud did occur, it did not have any effect on the outcome of an election. For an organisation that is supposed to safeguard the integrity of our voting system, such complacency is shocking.

Unfortunately, ballot fraud is very easy to do in Britain. But proving it is much harder. Just because police rarely prosecute someone does not mean there are no grounds for an investigation. When I was attacked last year while investigating alleged corruption in East London, I received numerous calls from constituents on all sides of the political divide thanking the newspaper for looking into an issue they felt had been long ignored. Last year’s general election was observed by election monitors from Commonwealth nations like Sierra Leone, Bangladesh and Ghana and even they were shocked by how “corruptible and open to fraud” the British voting system is.

Let us ponder further, from Votescam, 1992:

The computers that spoke in November 1988 held in their inner workings small boxes that contained secret codes that only the sellers of the computers could read. The programs, or “source codes,” were regarded as “trade secrets,” The sellers of the vote-counting software zealously guarded their programs from the public, from election officials, from everyone—on the dubious grounds that competitors could steal their ideas if the source codes were open to inspection.

You may ask: What “ideas” does it require to count something as simple as ballots?

Can the “ideas” be much more complex than, let’s say, a supermarket computerized cash register or an automatic bank teller machine?

The computer voting machines do not have to do anything complicated at all; they simply must be able to register votes for the correct candidate or party or proposal, tabulate them, count them up, and deliver arithmetically correct additions. People with no formal training, even children, used to do it all the time.

So why can’t the public know what those secret source codes instruct the computers to do? It only makes common sense that every gear, every mechanism, every nook and cranny of every part of the voting process ought to be in the sunlight, wide open to public view.

How else can the public be reasonably assured that they are participating in an unrigged election where their vote actually means something?

Yet one of the most mysterious, low-profile, covert, shadowy, questionable mechanisms of American democracy is the American vote count . . .

Begin to see the depth and spread of the problem?

(And, take time to read Votescam, here, concern has been on record for nearly 30 years regarding corruptibility of computerised voting schemes. While of course there are many confident manner dismissals, the rash of concerns highlighted above should give pause. Sadly, predictably, for many mere words and statistical patterns will not be enough. That is in key part why we are in for a wild ride over the next fourteen or so months as strategic decision sets in for the ongoing 4G civil war in the shadows.)

U/D14: I wish to make further notes on the Benford pattern, as I think it an important bit of Math/statistical general background relevant to a sound understanding of reality. The use of this in detecting fraud (as a red flag) is important, but the underlying dynamics of how sets of numbers arise and how they reflect their roots is also important. First, a video tutorial:

Now, let’s ponder the two digits case (with help of Wikipedia):

From the video, we may clip a tabulation of expected onward digits, noting that 0 now becomes a possible digit:

Convergence on 0.10 is obvious but with big enough sets of numbers at least the second and perhaps the third digits can be tested. This way, we could create a cumulative case. It would be interesting to see a first-second digit analysis of the precinct level outcomes, especially treating the second as reflecting a conditional probability on the first. That might be a fascinating audit-related exercise.

We can take it as granted that depending on circumstances this will show up. In that context, the concern raised by our auditor (cf. 636 below) is valid:

You’ve probably also seen a lot of mention of Benford’s Law over the last few days. Posts talking about it have been getting vanished off of Facebook (that I can confirm firsthand). https://theothermccain.com/2020/11/09/articles-mentioning-benfords-law-are-reportedly-banned-on-facebook/

Basically, when numbers are aggregated normally, they follow a distribution curve. When numbers are fabricated, they don’t. When human beings create what they think of as “random” numbers, they’re not. This is an auditing tool for things like looking for fabricated invoices. It also applies to elections. A normal election follows the expected curve. If you look at a 3rd world dictatorship’s election numbers, it looks like a spike or a saw.

There’s a bunch of different people out there running the numbers for themselves and posting the results so you can check their math. It appears that checking various places around the country Donald Trump’s votes follow the curve. The 3rd party candidates follow the curve. Down ballot races follow the curve. Hell, even Joe Biden’s votes follow the curve for MOST of the country. But then when you look at places like Pittsburgh the graph looks like something that would have made Hugo Chavez blush.

It’s amazing how all these extremely improbable statistical events just keep on happening, but only in the places where they make the most difference. Go figure. “It’s a miracle!” declared the Party of Science.

We can actually see that from U/D10 above.

Obviously, not a proof but a point for concern among a rash of others. This broad issue is not going away.

U/D15: Below, at 1019, I provided a discussion on random walks that shows why Benford type distributions of political views and voting patterns are fairly likely in sufficiently heterogeneous, distributed populations. One of the issues that emerged as relevant is the Overton Window, so, here is a perspective on it:

U/D16: More on Scatter-plots in MI, with the fresh analysis in 1019 in the background on why we expect heterogenous, reverse-J voting patterns on a state-wide scale:

In discussion of the Dr Shiva scatter-plots, a YT commenter linked his own correlated B- vs T- plots, clipped above. There is a clear source-sink correlation in deviations from the straight-ticket vote baseline [a proxy for strong party support]. We also notice kinked ramps, with the knee at about 20%. The plausibility questions highlighted in orange, frame the issue of how such a pattern is to be best explained.

(Also, the extreme L captures a slice of precinct outcomes, giving at least a hint that we are not seeing the naive flat response. BTW, the 9-lead cases come at the low end. Scanning by eye, T-votes in precincts run from 8 to 555 in 251 cases, total 59,095, average 236, pretty nearly mid point. This is nearly two orders of magnitude, so it seems the spread out heterogeneity criterion is met at precinct level aggregated to even county level. Mind you, 600k people as smallest unit of aggregation, county, is well over the median for small countries in the Caribbean. I do recall learning that in China, counties routinely have 2 – 3 millions. I see there are 3,141 “counties” in the US, implying average pop. over 100k.)

U/D16: A Lou Dobbs discussion with Ms Sidney Powell during which she reads from an affidavit on origin of the Dominion systems software and what it can do:

Food for thought, and recall, an affidavit is evidence notarised under penalty of incarceration. It is evidence. DV, later, on background regarding relevant McFaul colour revolution election manipulation patterns.

U/D17: Extending the McFaul Colour Revolution Programme and SOCOM Insurgency Escalator, through the Tefft election fraud/manipulation techniques:

Let us compare, again, the McFaul-SOCOM framework:

To focus attention, let us clip the list of election fraud techniques, c. 2004:

  • Illegal Use of Absentee Ballots: According to the respected NGO “Committee of Voters of Ukraine” (CVU), massive electoral fraud was committed through the illegal use of absentee voter certificates. For example, people were caught in Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy oblasts with their pockets stuffed with blank absentee ballots that they were using to vote at multiple polling stations.
  • Opposition Observers Ejected: Observers from Our Ukraine and other opposition groups were expelled from most polling stations in eastern Ukraine on Election Day. For example, in Territorial Election Commission (TEC) district number 42 in Donetsk oblast, Our Ukraine observers were kicked out of all but a few polling stations.
  • North Korean-Style Turnout in the East: Turnout in the pro-Yanukovych eastern oblasts was unnaturally high. In several electoral districts, turnout for the run-off round increased by 30 to 40 percent over the first round. In Luhansk oblast, the reported turnout rate hit nearly 96 percent — a number that, to quote the OSCE, even Stalinist North Korea would envy. A similar turnout rate was reported in Donetsk oblast, where 98 percent of the votes went to hometown candidate Prime Minister Yanukovych.
  • Mobile Ballot Box Fraud: In the second round of the election, the number of voters who supposedly cast ballots at home using mobile ballot boxes was double that of the first round. Much of this voting occurred without observers being present and was massively fraudulent. In Mykolayiv oblast, for example, nearly 35 percent of the oblast’s voters purportedly cast their ballots “at home.”
  • Computer Data Allegedly Altered To Favor Yanukovych: There were credible reports showing that that Yanukovych supporters gained illegal access to the Central Election Commission’s computer system and illegally altered vote tabulation data being transmitted by TECs to the CEC.
  • Reports of Opposition Fraud: Yanykovych’s supporters allege that Yushchenko’s supporters stuffed ballot boxes in western Ukraine. But the reports and evidence of pro-Yanukovych fraud greatly outweighed those indicated for Yushchenko.

Of course, exit polling etc were used as a reference:

This massive ballot-box stuffing, fake turnout figures, and other forms of fraud and abuse allowed the authorities to create a victory for their candidate that almost certainly would not have been possible in a free and fair election. The final figures announced by the Central Election Commission (CEC) gave Prime Minister Yanukovych with 49.46 percent of the vote over opposition candidate Yushchenko with 46.61 percent. It is impossible to know what the real numbers were, but a large-scale (20,000 respondents), nation-wide anonymous exit poll conducted by a consortium of three highly respected research organizations (partially funded by the United States Government) projected Yushchenko the winner with 53 percent versus 44 percent for Yanukovych. Other exit polls and parallel vote counts indicated a Yushchenko victory, although by lesser amounts.

Such polling now stands discredited through repeated inaccuracies, sometimes gross.

Further to this, we must face the pattern of street tactics, sing off the same hymn sheet media, rash of red flags and more. Of particular significance we can find striking parallels to the course of events in Egypt during that phase of the Arab Spring (which also raises the issue of external interference and linked issues over social media networks, manipulation and censorship), raising the question of the feasibility of coup by street level action joined to election manipulation once there is an atmosphere of crisis that leads to a tendency to surrender normal safeguards.

U/D18, Nov 18, to illustrate why it is not unreasonable that a Benford pattern-like reverse-J distribution can emerge from a random walk driven process across a single cycle of magnitude:

U/D19, Nov 18, excerpts from Affidavit announced by Ms Powell, as a basis for discussion (there is no implication of across the board endorsement, but the penalty acknowledgement should be noted):

U/D20, Nov 19: The Georgia Election Ramp:

U/D21, for reference, Guiliani-Powell press conference: . . . further update, a 1 h 40 min version:

U/D22, Nov 21: More on fluctuations, vote cliffs and staircase trends (with PS f-curve added):

U/D23, Lawfare phase in progress:

Notice also, Ms Powell’s recent media appearance with Mr Beck:

From this, further information is to go to the media and public starting this weekend. However, it is clear that full disclosure will only happen in court. This will enable us to evaluate specific incidents and testimony as to facts, but such does not change the power of the foundational, moral duty case. I therefore clip 1351 below:

A moral duty argument.

First, all relevant officials and connected persons have a main duty to ensure integrity of elections, and know or should acknowledge the potential for fraud and what it can mean. Therefore, neglect on a systemic basis is only partly negligence, it becomes in material part a strong sign of wrongful intent. In the case of the US and a relevant party, in Feb 1994, the NYT published a front page, just below fold article [see, 1273 below] on a judge’s reversal of an election outcome and of majority in a legislature in PA, due to fraud connected to a known vulnerable type of ballot and to harvesting, intimidation etc. Ten years later in 2004, The US congress received testimony on fraud in the Ukraine [see, U/D 17 above] that further amplified such techniques. So, systemic ignorance cannot be responsibly pleaded and indeed is discredited. Accordingly there were just on these cases sixteen to twenty six years to purge the said party of such a taint, but instead this year excuse of a pandemic was taken to multiply opportunity and means for similar fraud. This is a moral duty demonstration of wrongful intent and shifts or should shift our common sense evaluation of evidence [affidavits, anomalous patterns, disturbances to counts, frustration of proper scrutineering (ponder barriers erected to block even distant observation as has been circulated by images, not just reports of witnesses), surge in vulnerable ballots, single candidate ballots etc] to recognise these as consistent with carrying out a morally demonstrated intent. This obtains whether or not sufficient weight can be amassed to lead courts to vacate suspect ballots, or whether criminal charges can be brought against leading individuals. That common sense issue is also implicated in Federalist 68, etc so state legislatures may have a duty to act in face of a tainted election. The implication, no you do not get a second round to try again, but responsible bodies take up from [and remedy] your failure can be taken as a built in deterrent effect. However moral fibre in our civilisation has long been progressively undermined for generations.

U/D24: From Blackbox voting, a leaked email on fractional votes,

U/D25, Nov 23: As this has been raised below, I augment:

U/D26, Nov 24: H T BA 77, evidence is now being compiled here also note here at AT. Similarly, AT on Ms Powell and the Trump Team is here. I insert a clip from the evidence page:

ADDED: This 2006 CNN video on voting machines is stunning testimony against interest, pardon quality issues, this is critical evidence:

U/D27, a live observation of fractional votes where they should not be:

O/N: I added detail clips in 1767 below, and draw some conclusions.

O/N2: Thanks to BA77 in 1752 and Jerry in 1754, we have context for this affidavit and that in 19. There is an independent initiative following up from an election fiasco in TX in 2018, where Patrick Byrne — a tech entrepreneur who founded overstock dot com — has been funding an expert investigatory team. He warned US Homeland Security in August but was apparently brushed off; he will post findings in his own web site, so whatever happens in courts and media, this is going to the public — who will render the ultimate verdict on not only this election but on those who dominate the key “mountains of influence” of the US. Video:

U/D28: Another eyewitness from the “ground zero” counting centre in Detroit:

1,940 Replies to “UD LIVE EVENT — US Election Nov 3, 2020: predictions, tracking live, projections, reflections/thoughts

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    kairosfocus says:

    UD LIVE EVENT — US Election Nov 3, 2020: predictions, tracking live, projections, reflections/thoughts

  2. 2
    polistra says:

    No matter how you overcomplicate it and overthink it, it’s still meaningless noise. Nothing changes.

  3. 3
    daveS says:

    It’s currently tranquil out in the provinces.

    I’ve seen three Biden/Harris signs and I would guess at least ten times as many Trump signs in my travels around the region.

  4. 4
    daveS says:

    That projection is indeed provocative. I’m expecting a 100-electoral-vote margin for Biden.

  5. 5
    ET says:

    Joe Biden’s biggest accomplishment in 47 years in politics is 47 years in politics. How pathetic are the American people that they will vote for a career politician who hasn’t done anything of note in 47 years?

    If the USA wants 2021 to be worse than 2020, vote for Biden.

  6. 6
  7. 7
    kairosfocus says:

    DS,

    Where would that come from, where is a map of it if so or the near like?

    Second, what policy consequences would follow from such an outcome especially if accompanied by US Senate in Democrat control? For,

    — the US Supreme Court with packing on the table to 12 or up to 15 new judges
    the US Const generally and for esp Amdts 1, 2, 4, 5, 9, 10?
    — the push to “defund” police, or more frankly, abolish police
    — the programme of riots, looting, burnings, mayhem etc that has played out for months
    — the push towards socialism, with labour theory of value undermining investment, intellectual property, capital in general, being construed ideologically and on tendentiously reworked history as theft often involving racism? [See here Howard Zinn et al and recently the 1619 agenda, also wider critical x-theories and associated culture form marxism]
    — the energy industry, especially oil?
    — so, to, the economy in general, given the pivotal role of energy in work, both physical and economic
    — the ongoing mass slaughter of so far 63+ million of living posterity in the womb since 1973, now rising at 400k per year
    — the economic condition of the US hinterland especially, and their perception of the legitimacy of the emerging new order of government?
    — the rising signs of influence peddling and utterly decadent lifestyles in powerful circles?
    — the linked rising disaffection in especially the hinterlands?
    — wider, global geostrategic considerations, given circling vultures?
    — other related issues?

    So then, on your model, how would it come abound how would it likely play out over the next year or so? Beyond?

    KF

  8. 8
    daveS says:

    KF,

    At this point, I’m only throwing out a prediction of the electoral vote gap, without any specifics about where they come from. Pretty much based on intuition, glancing at poll results, and the online betting markets.

    One more prediction: I expect a margin of about somewhere between 5% and 9% in the popular vote, let’s say 7%, in favor of Biden.

  9. 9
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: I added a map from 270 to win, it being a bit hard to come up with a “mirror image” map for a Biden win. That map has a roll your own feature which can I suppose be screen captured as desired. KF

    PS: It might be illuminating to look at the structure of the two contrasting maps and the summary bars. My own view is that the US as a nation is being weighed in the balances.

  10. 10
    Bob O'H says:

    So then, on your model, how would it come abound how would it likely play out over the next year or so? Beyond?

    Certainly nothing like you have suggested (if Biden wins). For a start, how do you propose the Democrats will go about changing the constitution?

  11. 11
    Sandy says:

    From the distance looks like Trump will win bigger than in 2016.

  12. 12
    ET says:

    Amendments, Bob O’H. The US Constitution is changed by adding amendments.

  13. 13
    ET says:

    Biden has been in politics for 47 years and NO ONE is promoting his accomplishments. Why is that? And why would the USA want someone like that to be President?

  14. 14
    Bob O'H says:

    kf – if you want a mirror-image with Biden getting to ~320, take the states that 538.com are giving Biden more than a 50% chance of winning. They have the mid-west going to Biden by at least 5 points in each state, which would get him over 270. Then he also picks up Florida, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.

  15. 15
    Bob O'H says:

    ET – no, it’s a bit more complicated than that. Someone doesn’t just go to the constitution with a red pen and scribble in a few more words.

  16. 16
    ET says:

    Grow up, Bob. It is a fact that the US Constitution is changed by adding amendments. Your strawman just proves you are clueless.

  17. 17
    Bob O'H says:

    ET – look at the process of adding amendments. It’s not simple. then think about how easy it would be for one party to force through amendments within the constitutional limits.

  18. 18
    kairosfocus says:

    Bo’H: Pack the supreme court with 3 to 6 radical progressivist judges. Then, bring a slew of cases; that is already how the right to life was curtailed. That is what you open up when you turn a supreme court into a life-term super-legislature. KF

  19. 19
    daveS says:

    IMHO, the chance of our constitution being amended in the next 4 years is approximately nil.

  20. 20
    kairosfocus says:

    BO’H, I don’t see such a map. KF

  21. 21
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, that depends on what amend means. Amend by the old fashioned explicitly declared route, no. By the conversion of Supreme Court into a suitably packed super-legislature with life tenure, easy peasy. KF

  22. 22
    daveS says:

    I think ET and Bob O’H are talking about the old-fashioned kind.

  23. 23
    ET says:

    I never said it was simple. Obviously it has been done before. Democrats are bullying the Girl Scouts. Do you think they will mind trying to bully a few republicans?

    They are boarding up businesses in blue States because if the President wins they know there will be rioting and looting. And they know who will be doing it. How pathetic is that?

  24. 24
    ET says:

    Bob O’H:

    For a start, how do you propose the Democrats will go about changing the constitution?

    They start with amendments, Bob. First they will have to author one. Then they have to sell it. Wash-rinse-repeat and bully.

  25. 25
    Seversky says:

    i>Kairosfocus/7

    — the US Supreme Court with packing on the table to 12 or up to 15 new judges

    The Trump administration has been assiduously packing both the Supreme Court and benches in the lower courts with conservative nominees (which mean acceptable to President Trump and the Federalist Society). You are apparently comfortable with that. I am not. Counter-packing is a reasonable response in the circumstances. I remind you it would not even be under consideration had Trump not pursued this conservative packing strategy.

    — the US Const generally and for esp Amdts 1, 2, 4, 5, 9, 10?

    I’m sure you are aware of how difficult amending the US Constitution really is.

    — the programme of riots, looting, burnings, mayhem etc that has played out for months

    The vast majority of the protests have gone off peacefully which testifies to the forbearance of those who have serious grievances against the discriminatory treatment they have suffered at the hands of those who claim to hold themselves to higher standards.

    — the push towards socialism, …

    I see nothing particularly wrong with socialism as practiced in the Scandinavian countries or even in the UK. Wouldn’t you prefer not to be bankrupted by unexpected medical bills for acute conditions?

    — the energy industry, especially oil?

    Sooner or later, whether we like it or not, we will have to abandon fossil fuels and move to renewables and, hopefully, hydrogen fusion.

    — so, to, the economy in general, given the pivotal role of energy in work, both physical and economic

    What about the economic dislocation that will follow climate changes in the worst scenarios or will follow the eventual exhaustion of fossil fuels?

    — the ongoing mass slaughter of so far 63+ million of living posterity in the womb since 1973, now rising at 400k per year

    It is not slaughter nor is it a crime as the law stands. If you really want to end abortion, except in cases of medical emergency, then there needs to be a Constitutional amendment which guarantees the right to life for the unborn at any stage of development.

    — the economic condition of the US hinterland especially, and their perception of the legitimacy of the emerging new order of government?

    This is a broader and much more serious problem, in my view, which we also saw with Brexit. Trying to govern and administer huge and growing populations where those remote from distant centers of power become disaffected by what they perceive, rightly or wrongly, as the indifference to their needs and interests of those in power. This is clearly pushing our current systems of government to their limits.

    — the rising signs of influence peddling and utterly decadent lifestyles in powerful circles?

    See above. When has that ever been any different?

    — wider, global geostrategic considerations, given circling vultures?

    “Jaw, jaw is better than war, war.”?

  26. 26
    daveS says:

    ET,

    Waaah!

    lol. Don’t be such a baby. You guys won last time, it looks like Biden wins this time. That’s politics. 🙂

  27. 27
    kairosfocus says:

    Seversky, fail at the start-gate. The historically warranted meaning of court-packing was settled in the days of FDR when he tried to IIRC bring it up to 15 and was eventually dissuaded. That you are willing to resort to turnabout projection by way of willfully inaccurate redefinition speaks. Second, the restoration of judges to interpreting rather than legislating laws, is not at all to be equated to the perversion of framework that corrupted courts in ever so many jurisdictions into legislatures of life tenure unaccountable elites that has already happened. Further to this, there is need to restore the principle that law is premised on built-in principles of justice so that it is not a mere power struggle where whoever dominates and controls the legal presses issues “laws” and “rights” as they please. This last insanity is an open invitation to nihilism. Restoration of soundness is not the moral equivalent of ideological twisting; a twisting that has long been far advanced. I think, too, for cause, that playing Lucy pulling the football yet again this time, given what else is going on, will have serious consequences; this is NOT a linear system. KF

  28. 28
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, the old fashioned, by the actual intent of the framers etc amendment is just about dead; I think one passed after 200 years in the ’90’s. Similarly, IIRC the last actual by the book declaration of a state of war by the US was what, that against Italy or something like that. There was I think an attempt in 1942 to get several Balkan states to un-declare war with the US, with Turkey as intermediary. How many wars has the US fought since 1941 to 45? KF

  29. 29
    Sandy says:

    Let’s recognise a vote for Biden – is a vote for the most despicable crime a human being can do: killing of the unborn children. In real world a victim has at least a chance to run,to scream, to bite,to hide but an unborn child has no chance to defend ,has no place to run because he /she is in already in supposedly the most safe place in the world.

  30. 30
    orthomyxo says:

    They start with amendments, Bob. First they will have to author one. Then they have to sell it. Wash-rinse-repeat and bully.

    To 2/3rds of congress then 38 states, I believe. Are you predicting a democratic landslide across all of the votes tomorrow?

  31. 31
    ET says:

    daves, I voted Green party last time. So I didn’t win. But what makes people think Biden will do something in 4 years when he didn’t do anything but serve for 47?

  32. 32
    Sandy says:

    C’mon man…you, you know the thing.

  33. 33
    daveS says:

    ET,

    I don’t think anybody really expects Biden to do much, except behave like a normal adult.

  34. 34
    ET says:

    Sell us out. Mess things up and blame Trump. The left is already planning to see that Harris becomes President within 4 years. Biden will be declared incompetent. Obama will testify that he always thought Joe was a little off and it could have been the onset of Alzheimer’s. And normal adults aren’t as corrupt as Biden. He gets angry and insults people. Biden could never handle the heat that Trump is getting.

    So Biden and normal adult don’t mix.

  35. 35
    ET says:

    No Ortho- don’t need a landslide when you can bully the Girl Scouts and get away with it. 😛

  36. 36
    daveS says:

    ET,

    [Biden] gets angry and insults people.

    *spit take*

  37. 37
    Mac McTavish says:

    Extra Tenuous

    Sell us out. Mess things up and blame Trump.

    Good thing that Trump hasn’t blamed Obama and Biden for all of his failings. Oh… wait… never mind.

  38. 38
    rhampton7 says:

    No matter the winner, 45% of the country will say, “He’s not my President!” The next four years will be bad.

  39. 39
    Sebestyen says:

    If you Americans don’t manage to vote the orange turd out of office, you deserve all the bad that’s gonna come your way…

  40. 40
    Viola Lee says:

    re Dave’s comments at 33: I’ve stayed out of these political discussions, but I’d really like to see the legislature regain some of the power and roles they have more traditionally had, and then work to produce a more civil, productive, bipartisan approach to legislating. The power of the president needs to be reduced. That’s one of the things I think.

  41. 41
    ET says:

    Mental Midget:

    Good thing that Trump hasn’t blamed Obama and Biden for all of his failings.

    Not all but they did try to sabotage his campaign, back in 2016. Most of the covid-19 fatalities come from blue States. Democrats blame Trump for the covid failures yet when he wanted control the States all said it was up to the Governors to control their own States.

    Trump/ Pence has had many more successes and accomplishments in 4 years than Obama/ Biden had in 8. Just look at the peace treaties being signed in the Middle East.

  42. 42
    ET says:

    Sebestyen- I would agree except for the fact it will be much worse with Biden at the helm. For a politician with 47 years of service it is very telling that no one is promoting his accomplishments while in office. 47 years of collecting a taxpayer-fed paycheck for showing up and voting. Now he is linked with corruption and he got caught denying it.

  43. 43
    kairosfocus says:

    ET, please turn down rhetorical voltage! KF

  44. 44
    Viola Lee says:

    ET, you write, ” Most of the covid-19 fatalities come from blue States.”

    Assuming one could decide on a reasonable criteria for dividing the states into red and blue, I think the statistic that would be meaningful would be cases per capita, not just cases. For instance, the blue states may have (this is just a made-up number) 2/3 of the cases but they might also have 2/3 the population, which would mean the per capita rates would be the same. I imagine some rough data on this is on the internet someplace if someone wanted to do the research.

  45. 45
    ET says:

    The really sad part about this election is there aren’t any Joe Biden voters. There are only Trump voters and anti-Trump voters.

  46. 46
    Mac McTavish says:

    Extra Turgid

    The really sad part about this election is there aren’t any Joe Biden voters. There are only Trump voters and anti-Trump voters.

    I don’t even disagree with this. But does this speak more about Biden or Trump?

  47. 47
    Seversky says:

    Kairosfocus/27

    Seversky, fail at the start-gate. The historically warranted meaning of court-packing was settled in the days of FDR when he tried to IIRC bring it up to 15 and was eventually dissuaded. That you are willing to resort to turnabout projection by way of willfully inaccurate redefinition speaks.

    As I’m sure you are well aware, definitions are but statements of current usages. They are descriptive not prescriptive. They tell you how a term has been used not how it should be used.

    Regardless, I would argue that, in principle, “court-packing”, in the sense of appointing judges who are held to be ideologically sympathetic to the appointer’s views as a means of swaying the future decisions of the court in that direction, is improper regardless of which side does it. Ideally, there should be some means of appointing judges that takes no account of their political sympathies. That may be a pipe-dream but that is no reason not to use it as a guiding principle.

    We should always bear in mind that the authority of a court ultimately rests on the confidence of those subject to its decisions that they will be treated fairly and impartially. Otherwise, the court will be seen as just a rubber-stamp for those with the power to appoint it and why should anyone accept the decisions of such a body?

    Second, the restoration of judges to interpreting rather than legislating laws, is not at all to be equated to the perversion of framework that corrupted courts in ever so many jurisdictions into legislatures of life tenure unaccountable elites that has already happened.

    Complaints about judicial activism are usually a rhetorical cover for expressing disagreement with an opinion handed down by a court.

    Courts cannot and do not create new laws – that is the prerogative of legislatures – they can only interpret existing laws. We may disagree with a given decision but what is the alternative? If we do not abide by the decisions of some supreme arbitrating body then there is likely to be a resort to violence to resolve irreconcilable differences and that could end badly for all.

    Further to this, there is need to restore the principle that law is premised on built-in principles of justice so that it is not a mere power struggle where whoever dominates and controls the legal presses issues “laws” and “rights” as they please.

    How do we decide what are these principles of justice? Who decides on what these principles should be? Aren’t such principles already embodied in the US Constitution?

    This last insanity is an open invitation to nihilism. Restoration of soundness is not the moral equivalent of ideological twisting; a twisting that has long been far advanced.

    Which invites the question of what you mean by “soundness” in a legal context.

  48. 48
    Seversky says:

    Sandy/29

    Let’s recognise a vote for Biden – is a vote for the most despicable crime a human being can do: killing of the unborn children. In real world a victim has at least a chance to run,to scream, to bite,to hide but an unborn child has no chance to defend ,has no place to run because he /she is in already in supposedly the most safe place in the world.

    Let’s also recognize that Trump is an egotist who cares only for his own interests. Given his reported attitudes towards women, I doubt that he would have any qualms about arranging and paying for an abortion for one of his wives or girlfriends if the need arose.

    Do you really believe that the unborn child, especially in the early stages of development is capable of experiencing the trauma you describe?

    And what of the other side? If you ban abortion then you will be forcing – and I mean forcing – women to carry to term a child they do not want. Worse, there will be the cases of under-age girls impregnated by an older man who will be forced to carry to term even when they are so young that to do so will pose a serious threat to their lives. What of them? They have rights too.

  49. 49
    Sebestyen says:

    I Sebestyen- I would agree except for the fact it will be much worse with Biden at the helm. For a politician with 47 years of service it is very telling that no one is promoting his accomplishments while in office. 47 years of collecting a taxpayer-fed paycheck for showing up and voting. Now he is linked with corruption and he got caught denying it.

    Are you kidding me? Trump is without a doubt the worst “president” you’ve had in the last century! A retarded, syphilitic baboon would be a better choice!

    I fully agree that the Biden/Harris combo isn’t exactly a price, either, but compared to Trump and his ilk, literally anything would be a vast improvement. Trump couldn’t govern a pigsty without fucking it up and making an embarrassment out of it.

    I can’t for the life of me understand how any sane human would still vote for him…

  50. 50
    kairosfocus says:

    Sev,

    pardon, but fail at the start again. Yes, I know Webster’s recently rushed to re-write the dictionary in 24 hours, but the truth stands on long established historical facts and trends of government.

    For over 150 years, there has been a well established scale of the US Supreme Court. FDR, because he wished to impose his ideological stamp (and given the rise of legislate- from- the- bench, oligarchical judicial activism even then), sought to extend the court to 15. This caused considerable controversy and in the end he thought it wisest to desist.

    This — for cause — is the established meaning, and the current attempt to twist it to mean that attempts to restore courts to interpreting rather than inventing law in democratic polities, is a serious advance of the imposition of oligarchic domination. It is, in fact, a cynical exercise in turnspeech projection, yet another sign of the roots of the ongoing ideological push.

    Judges at relevant level are independent and life tenure, so not accountable to the electorate; meant to free them to be judicious rather than to empower them to try to become unaccountable legislators by decree dressed in suitable robes. The people have a reasonable expectation that those who legislate are their elected representatives, not ideological oligarchs acting under colour of law.

    Accordingly, they expect that judges will refrain from the ages-old practice that judges in oligarchies up to 1776 – 89 were indeed lawmakers; even under the Common Law. Indeed, that is how that term emerged, bodies of rulings taken collectively as law.

    In short, the usurpation of legislative powers by senior, life tenure judges, turning the US Supreme Court into a “Super Legislature” is a reversion from Constitutional Republic of democratic character to oligarchy and accompanying subjugation of hoi polloi.

    The current round of Lucy pulling the football once attempted correction within established rules seems likely to become effective after decades is, playing at small-c constitutional brinksmanship, by way of “a long train of abuses and usurpations” that pursue a clear “design” of reduction to subjugation under an elitist, ideological, life tenure, unaccountable oligarchy.

    The system is NOT linear, and the reaction of the people of the hinterlands to repeated Lucy pulling the football, had better be soberly considered.

    Cynical turnabout projection propagandistically pretending that restoration of sound democratic practice is equivalent to oligarchic usurpation, is not truthful nor advisable.

    KF

    PS: Other points, DV, later. Today is going to be a long, pivotal day not only for the US but for civilisation. For good or ill, we are all being weighed in the balances; and not least of the signs of that is the choice on the table before us. Our civilisation is in a serious state of decline.

    PPS: I cannot but note that life is the first right, without which there are no rights. In that context, the court imposed law that has enabled mass slaughter of half a generation in the womb is an albatross around our necks. In the US, 63+ millions in just under 50 years, currently mounting at 400k per year. That imposition has been a start point for the corruption of many key institutions and the searing of many consciences leading to tainting many souls and the resulting crooked yardstick warping of sound thinking in the body politic. It is time for reconsideration and reformation.

  51. 51
    BobRyan says:

    Abortion is the moral equivalent of slavery. A human being is considered nothing more than property of the owner. There were staunch supporters when the country was founded who used the same arguments pro-abortionists use to this day. Dred Scott was the equivalent of Roe.

    It is claimed that conservative only care about the lives of the unborn, but nothing after. If that were true, conservatives would not bring up the violence that occurs in the inner-cities, particularly gang violence. Socialists who call themselves liberals either ignore it altogether, or shift the blame away from the gangs committing acts of violence. It is conservatives, not socialists, who point out the poor condition of public schools. It is the conservatives, not the socialists who point to the staggering dropout rate.

  52. 52
    kairosfocus says:

    DEVELOPMENT: Mr Trump has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize by a group of European Parliamentarians, for intercessions in several global hot spots, in the ME and elsewhere https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/sd-nominerar-trump-till-nobels-fredspris/?fbclid=IwAR0mjK5BwMPekGbpmOLXVbq5U27jsyy1G0SkifS1WXD9eiBnOD_yGQ_YLCk This may be the fourth or fifth such nomination in recent weeks, as several diplomatic breakthroughs have happened. KF

    PS: Google Translation from Swedish:

    The politicians who nominate Trump

    Fourteen parliamentarians from eleven countries have signed the nomination of Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize:

    • Mattias Karlsson, Björn Söder and Tobias Andersson, Sweden Democrats.

    • Andrew Rosindell, Conservative Party of the United Kingdom.

    • Thierry Baudet, Dutch Forum for Democracy.

    • Iván Espinosa de los Monteros, Spanish Vox.

    • Søren Espersen, Danish People’s Party.

    • Sammy Wilson, Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist Party.

    • Zsolt Csenger-Zalán, Hungarian Fidesz.

    • Grzegorz Bierecki, Polish Law and Justice.

    • Uldis Budri?is, Latvian JKP.

    • Ulf Isak Leirstein, Norwegian independent parliamentarian (formerly the Progress Party).

    • Sebastian Tynkkynen and Vilhelm Junnila, True Finns.

  53. 53
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: As a reminder from the days before positivism and broader worldviews and cultural agenda movements warped the picture, here is an 1856 definition of legal interpretation, which would reflect the original context of meaning:

    INTERPRETATION. The explication of a law, agreement, will, or other instrument, which appears obscure or ambiguous.
    2. The object of interpretation is to find out or collect the intention of the maker of the instrument, either from his own words, or from other conjectures, or both
    . It may then be divided into three sorts, according to the different means it makes use of for obtaining its end.
    3. These three sorts of interpretations are either literal, rational, or mixed. When we collect the intention of the writer from his words only, as they lie before us, this is a literal interpretation. When his words do not express his intention perfectly, but either exceed it, or fall short of it, so that we are to collect it from probable or rational conjectures only, this is rational interpretation and when his words, though they do express his intention, when rightly understood, are in themselves. of doubtful meaning, and we are forced to have recourse to like conjectures to find out in what sense he used them this sort of interpretation is mixed; it is partly literal, and partly rational.
    4. According to the civilians there are three sorts of interpretations, the authentic, the usual, and the doctrinal.
    5.-1. The authentic interpretation is that which refers to the legislator himself, in order to fix the sense of the law.
    6.-2. When the judge interprets the law so as to accord with prior decisions, the interpretation is called usual.
    7.-3. It is doctrinal when it is made agreeably to rules of science. The Commentaries of learned lawyers in this case furnish the greatest assistance. This last kind of interpretation is itself divided into, three distinct classes. Doctrinal interpretation is extensive, restrictive, or declaratory. 1st. It is extensive whenever the reason of the law has a more enlarged sense than its terms, and it is consequently applied to a case which had not been explained. 2d. On the contrary, it is restrictive when the expressions of the law have a greater latitude than its reasons, so that by a restricted interpretation, an exception is made in a case which the law does not seem to have embraced. 3d. When the reason of the law and the terms in which it is conceived agree, and it is only necessary to explain them to have the sense complete, the interpretation is declaratory. 8. The term interpretation is used by foreign jurists in nearly the same sense that we use the word construction. (q. v.)
    9. Pothier, in his excellent treatise on Obligations, lays down the following rules for the interpretation of contracts:
    10.-1. We ought to examine what was the common, intention of the contracting parties rather than the grammatical sense of the terms.
    11.-2. When a clause is capable of two significations, it should be understood in that which will have some operation rather than, that in which it will have none.
    12.-3. Where the terms of a contract are capable of two significations, we ought to understand them in the sense which is most agreeable to the nature of the contract.
    13.-4. Any thing, which may appear ambiguous in the terms of a contract, may be explained by the common use of those terms in the country where it is made.
    14.-5. Usage is of so much authority in the interpretation of agreements, that a contract is understood to contain the customary clauses although they are not expressed; in contractibus tacite veniunt ea quae sunt moris et consuetudinis.
    15.-6. We ought to interpret one clause by the others contained in the same act, whether they precede or follow it.
    16.-7. In case of doubt, a clause ought to be interpreted against the person who stipulates anything, and in discharge of the person who contracts the obligation.
    17.-8. However general the terms may be in which an agreement is conceived, it only comprises those things respecting which it appears that the contracting parties proposed to contract, and not others which they never thought of.
    18.-9. When the object of the agreement is to include universally everything of a given nature, (une universalite de choses) the general description will comprise all particular articles, although they may not have been in the knowledge, of the parties. We may state, as an example of this rule, an engagement which I make with you to abandon my share in a succession for a certain sum. This agreement includes everything which makes part of the succession, whether known or not; our intention was to contract for the whole. Therefore it is decided, that I cannot object to the agreement, under pretence that considerable property has been found to belong to the succession of which we had not any knowledge.
    19.-10. When a case is expressed in a contract on account of any doubt which there may be whether the engagement resulting from the contract would. extend to such case, the parties are not thereby understood to restrain the extent which the engagement has of right, in respect to all cases not expressed.
    20.-11. In contracts as well as in testaments, a clause conceived in the plural may be frequently distributed into several particular classes.
    21.-12. That which is at the end of a phrase commonly refers to the whole phrase, and not only to that which immediately precedes it, provided it agrees in gender and number with the whole phrase.
    22. For instance, if in the contract for sale of a farm, it is said to be sold with all the corn, small grain, fruits and wine that have been got this year, the terms, that have been got this year, refer to the whole phrase, and not to the wine only, and consequently the old corn is not less excepted than the old wine; it would be otherwise if it had been said, all the wine that has been got this year, for the expression is in the singular, and only refers to the wine and not to the rest of the phrase, with which it does not agree in number. Vide 1 Bouv. Inst. n. 86, et seq.
    A Law Dictionary, Adapted to the Constitution and Laws of the United States. By John Bouvier. Published 1856.

    Notice, the focal thought:

    The explication of a law, agreement, will, or other instrument, which appears obscure or ambiguous.
    2. The object of interpretation is to find out or collect the intention of the maker of the instrument, either from his own words, or from other conjectures, or both

    Not, impose a new agenda under pretence of interpretation.

    If you are going to make a fresh departure, the proper way is by amendment or replacement of law according to properly accountable process, with ratification by the people on constitutional matters. In this regard the want of a proper written Constitutional instrument and the power of the UK parliament to make Constitutional law at will is an archaic practice that was restrained by an unwritten cultural tradition of conventions. In a day when such has little force, it opens up serious dangers.

    But, to flout a written constitution at will under pretence of interpreting it as a so-called living document is even more dangerous as it disrespects a bulwark erected by the people to protect themselves from oligarchy.

    KF

  54. 54
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: Caught on Zoom, McFaul colour revolution push moves to the next level as an in case the election does not go as desired https://twitter.com/drrollergator/status/1323386654422409218 Note loaded language of escalating “resistance” and claim not to have caused or asked for “this war,” i.e. speaking in terms of turnabout projection and anticipation of continuation of a radical agenda checked by hinterland uprising by ballot box 2016. War language brings out that this is 4g shadowy civil war already in progress. Guns are on the table and targets, in the discussion. Notice, create a crisis language and intent to be on the offense not defense, projecting too that the despised other are armed with AR[s] and AK 47[s] — they expect opposition from the hinterland deplorables indicating implicitly that this thinking is far broader than protests in DC. Discussion is on taking over Govt buildings and hints of prepared red guard swarms comes up in talk of others using different tactics and breaking windows to enter the buildings, in the further context of being armed as those who are armed tend to win in a coup situation. It seems the Zoom meeting was hosted by Shut Down DC, involving Lisa Fithian as a “recognised” individual. This soberingly extends the U-Haul a riot pattern already discussed. KF

  55. 55
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: On geostrategic consequences (with geostrategic vultures circling):

    Chinese Warplanes Encroach; Taiwan Says Beijing May Try to Take Advantage of US Election Uncertainty
    By Patrick Goodenough | November 2, 2020 | 9:09pm EST

    (CNSNews.com) – Chinese warplanes encroached on areas close to Taiwan’s airspace on eight separate occasions on Monday, as the Taiwanese foreign minister warned that Beijing may take advantage of the U.S. election to ramp up pressure on the island nation which it regards as a rebel province.

    Taiwan’s national defense ministry said the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) aircraft that crossed into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) were six fighter planes (two Russian-made Su-30s, two Shenyang J-16 strike fighters, and two Chengdu J-10s), a Shaanxi Y-8 tactical reconnaissance aircraft, and a Shaanxi Y-8 maritime patrol plane.

    A country’s ADIZ lies outside its sovereign airspace, but government authorities usually expect aircraft entering the zone to report their presence and flight plans.

    The ministry said Taiwan’s air force issued radio warnings and scrambled aircraft to monitor the Chinese planes. It reported that since mid-September, PLAAF warplanes have penetrated Taiwan’s ADIZ on 32 separate days.

    Around the time that China began to step up its ADIZ incursions, Hudson Institute senior fellow Seth Cropsey in an analysis drew attention to the types of PLAAF aircraft involved.

    “The Su-30 is one of China’s front-line combat aircraft, comparable to the U.S. F-15 and capable of defeating Taiwan’s most advanced F-16s in an aerial dogfight,” he wrote. “The Y-8, a Chinese version of the Soviet An-12 heavy-lift transport, can be used to deploy paratroopers or as a maritime surveillance, electronic warfare, and drone deployment aircraft. While the Y-8 variant that China deployed remains unknown, the central point is clear enough: In a cross-strait conflict, a Chinese ‘strike package’ will look very much like the force deployed last week.” . . .

    In 1958, there were notorious dogfights between China and Taiwan, which raised concerns globally.

    KF

  56. 56
    Sandy says:

    Seversky
    If you ban abortion then you will be forcing – and I mean forcing – women to carry to term a child they do not want.

    🙂 🙂 🙂 This is a parody of defending killing ? You know that people who accept that crime are potential criminals and encourage others to kill ?
    Did you hear about the law of cause and effect? Every action have consequence(s). It’s woman choice to have sex and …sex have consequences . Sex’ main role is to produce babies, the biology say that.

    the cases of under-age girls impregnated by an older man who will be forced to carry to term even when they are so young that to do so will pose a serious threat to their lives. What of them? They have rights too.

    This is B.S. That child is not guilty because a retarded can’t control himself. Retarded must be castrated and child raised by family of girl or sent to orphanage ,not killed.

  57. 57

    Sebestyen,

    I’ll explain why many people are voting for Trump in broad strokes.

    1. No new wars, reduction of troops overseas.
    2. “America first” economic program, keeping jobs and business in the USA and making it attractive for businesses to come (and come back) to the USA.
    3. Big reduction in illegal border crossing
    4. Massive, worldwide efforts to end human trafficking resulting in record arrests and safe extraction of victims, breaking up trafficking & child porn rings in the US and helping to do so in other countries around the world.
    5. Tax cuts as opposed to promised massive tax increases by Biden/Harris
    6. Successful renegotiation of trade deals to more pro-USA worker and business versions
    7. School choice
    8. First Step Act
    9. Creation of Opportunity Zones in depressed inner city areas
    10. Enormous government effort in the cause of jobs, education and rights for women and the LGBTQ community here and around the world (which is why Trump has an estimated 51% approval rating in the LGBTQ community here)
    11. Upgrading and fully equipping our military
    12. He is pro-life
    13. Renovating the VA care system
    14. He essentially obliterated ISIS
    15. They love it that the “insiders” can’t stand him because he is disrupting what many see as a self-serving power structure alliance of media, academia, elite and political classes.
    16. Historically low unemployment prior to COVID-19
    17. Historically good economy prior to COVID-19
    18. Speaks plainly and not in polished, political jargon
    19. Says out loud what many are thinking and feeling, which resonates with millions
    20. Reduced the threat of nuclear war with N. Korea
    21. Disentangling our economy from China
    22. Replacing/replaced “free trade” with “fair trade,” rebalancing our trade deficit
    23. Made us energy independent and a net exporter of energy
    24. Massively reduced regulations to better serve small businesses and individual entrepreneurs
    25. Unprecedented level of funding for Historically Black Colleges
    26. The alternative is the devastation of our economy, rights, and liberties and the dismantling of the Republic with court and senate packing, and ignoring the rule of law and the constitution of the U.S.

    For those who want to see all the things this admin is doing that you’ve probably never heard about due to how most of the media chooses to portray the President, feel free to go here:
    https://share.america.gov/

    If it was an orange, diseased, racist, bigoted, misogynistic orangutan that had accomplished all of that, I’d happily vote for that primate.

  58. 58

    Seversky,

    Repealing RvW would not have the effect of “banning abortion” even it were to occur.

  59. 59
    Sebestyen says:

    If it was an orange, diseased, racist, bigoted, misogynistic orangutan that had accomplished all of that, I’d happily vote for that primate.

    Well, racist, bigoted, misogynistic orangutans will of course vote for racist, bigoted, misogynistic orangutans. It’s just mind boggling how many there are in that country…

  60. 60
    AndyClue says:

    @William J Murray:

    > which is why Trump has an estimated 51% approval rating in the LGBTQ community here

    Where is “here”? What’s the source for the number?

    At http://www.metroweekly.com/202.....poll-says/ it says 76% of LGBTQ voters prefer Biden over Trump in this election.

  61. 61
    Sandy says:

    Sebestyen
    Are you kidding me? Trump is without a doubt the worst “president” you’ve had in the last century! A retarded, syphilitic baboon would be a better choice!

    🙂 This is the result of brainwashing, transform ignorant people in hate machines .
    Trump is a genius and a very smart young man knew that (with explanation) before 2016 elections. Notice the date of video 23 may 2016 😉
    https://youtu.be/LibRNYJmZ-I

    PS:stop watching cnn,nbc,abc,etc…

  62. 62

    As far as a Biden/Harris admin having to go through the amendment process to strike down enumerated rights, nope. All they have to do is pack the Supreme Court so it will issue decisions that allow anything the admin wants, whether it is constitutional or not, based on some other theory of law or “living document” perspective on the limits & structure of government. This is why they have been downplaying the essential, foundational role of the constitution for decades.

    Voting for Biden/Harris is giving government unlimited authority and power to do whatever they want. That’s a recipe for totalitarianism.

  63. 63
    daveS says:

    which is why Trump has an estimated 51% approval rating in the LGBTQ community here

    AndyClue: Where is “here”? What’s the source for the number?

    I’d like to know where that comes from myself. I’m guessing it’s either a fabrication, or the poll was very poorly done, or someone cherry-picked an outlier result.

  64. 64
    Sebestyen says:

    ? This is the result of brainwashing, transform ignorant people in hate machines .

    Nope, this is the result of Trump’s own words and behaviour. That man is despicable subhuman trash.

    Trump is a genius

    Trump is as much a genius as a cowpie is a pizza.

    PS:stop watching cnn,nbc,abc,etc…

    I never watched any of those. Thank God I’m not even living anywhere near the US…

  65. 65
    kairosfocus says:

    WJM, see how a number without source will be pounced on? KF

  66. 66
    ET says:

    mental midget:

    But does this speak more about Biden or Trump?

    Biden has 47 years in politics and he ain’t running on his accomplishments. That says it all, really.

  67. 67
    ET says:

    Sebestyen:

    Thank God I’m not even living anywhere near the US…

    Thank you for that.

  68. 68
    ET says:

    How many wars have we been in the last 4 years? How many peace treaties did the President get signed in the MidEast? How many did Obama have?

  69. 69

    Now, prediction for this election:

    The pundit and polling class has zero credibility on both sides. What we are left with is the eye test, data uncontested by either side, and critical thinking – which could of course still lead to an erroneous conclusion.

    For the eye test, one only need look around and compare what the population is doing. Tens of thousands flock to every Trump rally, regardless of the size of venue or size of city. Spontaneous pro-Trump parades and rallies of thousands, if not tens of thousands, of people have been springing up around the country. Car parades. Boat parades. Massive rallies even in the heart of big Dem stronghold cities.

    The uncontested likely voter data shows a huge shift towards Trump in two key demographics: the hispanic and black communities. In 2016, Trump got 6% of the black vote and 28% of the hispanic vote. In 2020, the data shows that Trump has at least 18% of the black vote (possibly up to 46%), and a current Hispanic vote of 36%.

    The conventional wisdom for years was that if Republicans could gather just 12% of the black vote alone, they would be unbeatable.

    Compounding this information is that we know there is a “shy Trump voter” element; people that will lie about who they are voting for because they fear potential negative ramifications. They do not feel safe telling anyone who they are actually voting for.

    Additionally, internal data gathered at rallies reveal a large percentage of people (over 20%) who have never voted before and so are not even considered in polling of “likely voters,” and a large percentage (again, over 20%) that are registered Dems or independents.

    This looks like a Trump landslide, both in terms of popular vote and in the electoral college.

    Given that occurs (which, of course, I could be entirely wrong about,) the Dem base has been primed to not accept the outcome. Extreme elements will attempt a multi-pronged finalization of the “color revolution” with coordinated activity from participating political leaders, boots on the ground, academia, lawyers, judges, mainstream media and big tech.

    This coordinated attack will: (1) try to overwhelm the White House to force Trump out of it; (2) discredit the election results as the product of foreign influence, voter suppression or fraud, (3) challenge it in court (a win for them regardless of how the Supreme Court decides,) and (4) actions by Dem governors & other elected officials, along with a public intimidation campaign, to subvert the electoral college vote.

    Trump has the capacity to counter all of that by invoking the Insurrection Act of 1807; he can literally have anyone arrested, including governors, judges, elected officials and anyone in the general population. This would also advance the Dem perspective that Trump is a totalitarian dictator even if he wins the popular vote.

    I think that getting that far is very unlikely; I think the Dems have a critical problem in that they are playing a very poor hand politically speaking. They probably could have pulled this off under Obama, but they just don’t have the charismatic leadership necessary to see it through at this point.

    It’s a very interesting chess game being played out. Very exciting to be alive and be able to witness this going on.

  70. 70
    Sandy says:

    Sebestyen
    Trump is as much a genius as a cowpie is a pizza.

    I seriously advice you to look for some specialized medical help because your anger will destroy your health .

  71. 71
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: Final Democracy Insitutte poll, turning on likely voters: https://democracyinstitute.org/poll-donald-trump-set-to-win-us-presidency-by-electoral-college-landslide/ The details are given. Note, they got 2016 right. We shall see. KF

  72. 72
    daveS says:

    ET,

    Biden has 47 years in politics and he ain’t running on his accomplishments. That says it all, really.

    Don’t you mean “achomlishments”? 😛

  73. 73

    Apparent duplicate, sorry.

  74. 74
    daveS says:

    KF,

    From that DI article:

    Poll: Donald Trump set to win US presidency by electoral college landslide.

    Let’s see how well this ages …

  75. 75

    KF,
    The funny thing is that even if we go with AndyClue’s poll, a 17% LGBTQ vote for Trump is astonishing, given the non-stop fearmongering by the media and their blackout of LGBTQ-supporting initiatives by this administration. Granted, it represents a relatively insignificant number of actual votes, but still, it’s an amazing figure.

  76. 76
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, I give that poll and its dig down details precisely because it allows us to test and discuss patterns vs predictions, which extends to both sides. If you look at the two maps, it is clear that there is a strong disagreement on degree of support in more or less agreed marginal states, reflecting how the College forces 50 parallel elections rather than domination by one or two zones. the US is a federation in the end. KF

  77. 77
    kairosfocus says:

    WJM, in short you agree regarding 4g war, colour revo with red guards as foot soldiers, out of the McFaul playbook, long since in progress but likely to peak in aftermath of the election. What do you see as likely if there is a Biden-Harris victory with shift in Senate? (What a 7% majority would more or less guarantee.) KF

  78. 78
    Sebestyen says:

    I seriously advice you to look for some specialized medical help because your anger will destroy your health .

    I guess I could do that. I mean, it would be paid for in my country…

    However, once this election is over and I’m not being bombarded left and right with US politics [SNIP] everywhere on the internet, that anger will just go away on its own, so don’t you worry about me.

    You better worry about your country in case Mr. “grab-em-by-the-[SNIP]” gets another 4 years…

  79. 79
    ET says:

    daves- did I misspell accomplishment somewhere?

  80. 80
    ET says:

    I am sure that your country gets millions from the USA in handouts.

  81. 81
    ET says:

    With Biden as President “Gee Your Hair Smells Terrific” and “Herbal Essence” will make huge shampoo comebacks.

  82. 82
    ET says:

    A Supreme Court ruling that murder is wrong! Who would have thought the world has come to this?

  83. 83

    KF @77:

    The end of our constitutional republic and installation of marxist totalitarianism essentially under the rule of Communist China …

    …or …

    Mass revolt by tens of millions of armed citizens prompting a military intervention to remove Biden/Harris and key democrat politicians involved.

  84. 84
    daveS says:

    ET,

    daves- did I misspell accomplishment somewhere?

    No, Don did so a while back and it became a meme.

  85. 85
    Sebestyen says:

    I am sure that your country gets millions from the USA in handouts.

    On the contrary. We’re paying many millions per year so that the USA can wage their wars in the middle east…

  86. 86
    ET says:

    What country, Sebestyen? The USA hasn’t waged any wars since Trump took office. The MidEast is actually signing peace treaties with Israel.

  87. 87
    ET says:

    daves- It looks like the USA is full of losers hanging on his every word. It’s hard to say that we didn’t deserve this pandemic. It’s even harder to say we didn’t deserve to get hit much worse.

  88. 88
    Sebestyen says:

    What country, Sebestyen? The USA hasn’t waged any wars since Trump took office. The MidEast is actually signing peace treaties with Israel.

    Germany, of course. You know, the country you’re conducting your drone attacks from?

    And the USA is currently involved in the following wars, in case you forgot:

    War in Afghanistan
    War in North-West Pakistan
    Second U.S. Intervention in the Somali Civil War
    American-led intervention in Iraq
    American-led intervention in Syria
    Yemeni Civil War

    And the only reason the Trump administration didn’t start any wars is that they couldn’t find (or fabricate) a good reason to.

  89. 89
    Sandy says:

    Sebestyen
    You better worry about your country in case Mr. “grab-em-by-the-[SNIP]” gets another 4 years…

    🙂 Yep, it’s a monster because no man ever said something so despicable. I guess you live on Mars and your opinions are very valuable for those little green people who live on Mars . 😉
    Trump only said it in a locker room talk , but Clinton actually done it in the oval office inside White House and Biden actually inserted his finger in Tara Read .

    PS: I’m always amazed by atheists who think their relatives are some monkeys but in the same time stealing moral law from God to judge other people . If you are atheist you should adopt and believe monkeys jungle law. Oh ,shout BLM and antifa already do that .

  90. 90
    daveS says:

    Sandy,

    Are you sure you’re not an evo troll? 🙂

  91. 91
    ET says:

    The USA is in Afghanistan for a good reason. We are in all of those loser countries for a good reason.

    Being from a country that started TWO World Wars you ain’t exactly in any position to deride the USA. How many peace treaties did Germany manage to broker in the last 4 years?

  92. 92
    daveS says:

    ET,

    I suggest not using the term “loser countries”. It’s just juvenile and offensive.

  93. 93
    Barry Arrington says:

    Sebestyen is under the delusion that Germany subsidizes the US. It takes a special kind of willful and obstinate stupidity to write such a thing. Since the end of WWII the US has spent literally trillions of dollars erecting a defensive shield over Europe and especially Germany. In recent years our NATO “allies,” including Germany have pledged to pick up more of the burden of their own defense by bringing their defense spending up, only to renege again and again.
    Sebestyen, your country exists as a free state because the US spent trillions. At the very least you should show a little gratitude.

  94. 94
    Sebestyen says:

    ? Yep, it’s a monster because no man ever said something so despicable.

    He did and said plenty of other despicable things and you know it. Don’t get your knickers in a twist over an example I picked.

    I guess you live on Mars and your opinions are very valuable for those little green people who live on Mars . ?

    Did you come up with that line on your own?

    Trump only said it in a locker room talk , but Clinton actually done it in the oval office inside White House and Biden actually inserted his finger in Tara Read .

    If you think I’m a fan of (any) Clinton or Biden you’re sorely mistaken, but you know damn well what else Trump did in that particular regard so don’t play it dumb.

    PS: I’m always amazed by atheists who think their relatives are some monkeys but in the same time stealing moral law from God to judge other people . If you are atheist you should adopt and believe monkeys jungle law. Oh ,shout BLM and antifa already do that .

    Well, as a matter of fact, I’m not. And you should rather worry about the morals and faith of your “president”…

  95. 95
    Sebestyen says:

    Sebestyen is under the delusion that Germany subsidizes the US. It takes a special kind of willful and obstinate stupidity to write such a thing.

    No, this is a simple fact. Germany spent at least 1 billion € in the last 10 years to keep your military presence in our country running. 2/3rds were spent on building measures, the rest were payments for former members of the US military, repair costs for damages caused by the US military and reimbursements of investments by the US.
    The point was that we’re not getting “millions from the USA in handouts” as the little brown alien suggested. Nothing less, nothing more…

    Since the end of WWII the US has spent literally trillions of dollars erecting a defensive shield over Europe and especially Germany.

    Which was of course totally selfless and not for your own protection, right?

    In recent years our NATO “allies,” including Germany have pledged to pick up more of the burden of their own defense by bringing their defense spending up, only to renege again and again.

    From next year on Germany pays the same amount as the US to the NATO and the “2% GDP goal” is set for 2024, I don’t know what you want now…

    Sebestyen, your country exists as a free state because the US spent trillions. At the very least you should show a little gratitude.

    Give me a break, the US spent those trillions to protect themselves first and foremost. If at all, gratitude is in order to your fathers and grandfathers and the US government back in the days.
    Nowadays you’re violating human rights by controlling your drone attacks from Rammstein so be thankful our politicians don’t have the balls to throw your asses out of the country…

  96. 96
    Sebestyen says:

    Being from a country that started TWO World Wars you ain’t exactly in any position to deride the USA.

    If the US doesn’t want to be derided they’d stop laying such excellent groundwork for it. But they keep on going…

    How many peace treaties did Germany manage to broker in the last 4 years?

    None, but we also didn’t start any wars since the 30s so I’d say we’re good. And yeah, let’s see how long those peace treaties last and if they actually make things better. It’s not over till the fat lady sings…

    Btw, if you’d learned a bit more about history from other countries than your own, you’d know that the first world war wasn’t started by Germany but is to be blamed on pretty much every major party that was involved (including Germany, that is). London, Paris, Wien, Berlin or Moskau could’ve all stopped the madness if they’d wanted.

  97. 97
    ET says:

    daves- I am just making astute observations.

  98. 98
    kairosfocus says:

    Seb & Sandy, broken window theory rules, please refrain from using or picking up vulgarities. KF

    PS: Seb, what became the Great War did so because of the blank cheque given to Austria by Germany, followed by German mobilisation under a locked in two front war plan that involved knocking out the then uninvolved French, then turning on slower to mobilise Russia. Of course, to get around French forts, Belgium was violated and on original Scheme the Netherlands would have been too. Britain would never permit a hostile sea power on its Channel coast and backed Belgium and France. Then a few years later there was that stuff about renewed unrestricted submarine attacks, which brought in the Americans. Then came round two . . .

  99. 99
    ET says:

    Germany started the first world war. They backed Austria, which had written an ultimatum to the Serbs. An ultimatum that they knew the Serbs would reject.

  100. 100
    Sandy says:

    Sebestyen
    If you think I’m a fan of (any) Clinton or Biden you’re sorely mistaken, but you know damn well what else Trump did in that particular regard so don’t play it dumb.

    Trump Derangement Syndrome is a dangerous syndrome ,I didn’t know is so contagious . Liberals are very exposed because they have a vulnerable point : they think are very smart and informed . 🙂
    It’s funny a german atheist judge Trump’s morals when their beloved Hitler was just perfect. In fact liberals called him ” Hitler ” and I don’t know why, maybe because in his first term he didn’t start another war or something.
    Your Hitler killed millions of inocent people and you acuse Trump because of locker room talk? Certainly you are from Mars.

  101. 101
    kairosfocus says:

    Sandy, I doubt anyone is defending Hitler, Seb included. Seb is right there is all around blame enough, e.g. Russia and likely factions of Serb intel backed the group [Black Hand IIRC] that killed the heir to the Austrian imperial throne. KF

  102. 102
    Sebestyen says:

    100 comments and we’ve already reached Point Godwin. You trumpards really are a pathetic bunch.

    So long, suckers…

    PS: Kairofocus, it was an absolutely retarded idea to bring politics into this site. No offence…

  103. 103
    ET says:

    The pathetic bunch bullied the Girl Scouts. The pathetic bunch are voting for Biden just because they hate Trump.

    Can you imagine what would have happened to Trump if someone had the proof of corruption on him that the FBI has on Joe Biden?

    For the record- I didn’t bring up Hitler or the Nazis. I just found it ironic that someone from Germany would say something about the USA trying to keep the bad peoples at bay.

  104. 104
    ET says:

    I can’t speak for anyone else but I don’t want a boy scout for President. And I definitely don’t want someone with 47 years in politics whose biggest accomplishment is 47 years in politics.

  105. 105
    Sandy says:

    Sebestyen
    100 comments and we’ve already reached Point Godwin. You trumpards really are a pathetic bunch.

    So long, suckers…

    Please don’t leave , we are lost without you .

  106. 106
    TimR says:

    Sandy, just wondering how you excuse Trump’s words as “locker room talk” – whatever that is. Personally, I have been in locker rooms and never felt the urge to say those kinds of things. He was advocating sexual assault, breaking up marriages etc. Do you think that it’s ok to say and think stuff like that just because your’e in a locker room? Would you?

  107. 107
    David P says:

    UD makes no endorsements?
    Ever heard the saying don’t pee on my leg and tell me it’s raining?
    UD paraphrases and parrots Trump rhetoric often.
    It’s obvious UD supports Trump.

  108. 108
    ET says:

    Holy cow- it isn’t as if Trump went on TV saying to grab them by the—–. And yes, many men do talk like that in private conversations with other men.

    Trump was saying that women let famous men do things to them, like grab them by the —–. Anyone who has ever heard of groupies understands what he said is the reality of life, sad as it is.

  109. 109
    Mac McTavish says:

    Extra Turbid

    daves- I am just making astute observations.

    When did this start? You should give us advance notice.

  110. 110
    TimR says:

    ET, sorry, I don’t know any men that would say that about women. Or anyone that would want to just grab some random women by the —. It totally amazes me how people defend this kind of behaviour. To me it seems reprehensible.

  111. 111
    ET says:

    mental midget:

    When did this start?

    Decades ago.

  112. 112
    ET says:

    TimR- Your naivety isn’t an argument. And you are taking Trump out of context.

    It’s someone like you who I wouldn’t want being a leader of anything.

  113. 113
    Sandy says:

    TimR
    Sandy, just wondering how you excuse Trump’s words as “locker room talk” – whatever that is. Personally, I have been in locker rooms and never felt the urge to say those kinds of things. He was advocating sexual assault, breaking up marriages etc. Do you think that it’s ok to say and think stuff like that just because your’e in a locker room? Would you?

    Ok TimR to answer you corectly I need you to tell me what was the most despicable thought you had and what was the most despicable act you’ve
    done.

  114. 114
    kairosfocus says:

    DP, did you notice “un-dorse”? That is what had to be pulled back in 2016, a double, pox on both your houses version. The fact that the US is down to the sorts of choices for major political offices we have seen in recent years is itself a sign. What is far more relevant is that this blog whole-heartedly endorses the main heritage of our civilisation, never mind the many warts. It is a further sign of how bad things are, that even the utterly a-political Amish have stood up. (You don’t want to find out my general view of folly-tricks and associated trix-ters, as someone who has seen such folly come to ruinous 4g civil war up close and personal.) Anyway, as far as I can see it is now too late to avert a wild ride over the next year or so, whichever way tonight turns out. My interest is how the cliff will crumble underfoot, not if it will. Though, that will affect how much needless damage will be done as the already in progress 4g civil war with overtones of invitation to geostrategic vultures ramps up. Now, I know how Churchill felt as the 1930’s wore on. Those who stubbornly neglect or belittle and sideline the lessons of history doom themselves to echo its worst chapters. KF

  115. 115
    Mac McTavish says:

    SNIP — broken window.

  116. 116
    kairosfocus says:

    MMT, what is the most despicable, unguarded thing you have ever thought, said or done, and imagine it was surreptitiously taped and just waiting for the right poison the well moment in the hands of your worst enemies. Now, multiply that by many thousands, targetting (systematically) potential leaders; especially those who might otherwise be uncontrollable, not having bought into the corrupt elite agendas of the big boys and girls’ clubs. Now, think about how that threat must seem to those who know it, and to those who realise that somewhere someone has or is willing to outright make up dirt that major players and media are only too willing to trumpet as happened with say Mr Kavanaugh. Where, likely, it is only the strength of likely backlash that blocked the same stunt from being tried on Mrs Barrett. Do you see that this leads straight to a Gresham’s Law from hell where the bad and bought displace those who could make a difference for good. Multiply that over a generation or two and see where that leads our leading nations and civilisation as a whole. Then, I hope you have enough conscience left to be deeply ashamed. KF

  117. 117
    kairosfocus says:

    ET, please don’t feed the trolls any more. KF

  118. 118
    kairosfocus says:

    We await the outcome as it rolls in. KF

  119. 119
    daveS says:

    Apparently no sign of this so far:

    This looks like a Trump landslide, both in terms of popular vote and in the electoral college.

  120. 120
    Mac McTavish says:

    KF

    MMT, what is the most despicable, unguarded thing you have ever thought, said or done, and imagine it was surreptitiously taped and just waiting for the right poison the well moment in the hands of your worst enemies.

    Thought? Well, that is between me and my mind. But I can honestly say that I have never said anything like the text that I quoted from Trump, that you clipped for some strange reason. Is it because you are guilty of saying equally misogynistic nonsense?

  121. 121
    kairosfocus says:

    MMT, your projection of groundless accusation by insinuation speaks, tellingly. It says you have no substance, just venom. You need to apologise for that but won’t of course. Duly noted. KF

  122. 122

    Trump just now basically declared victory.

    I hope anyone living in contested areas stocked up on supplies. This election just took a hard turn towards a serious power struggle in the Supreme Court and on the streets, which the Dems have already been primed to think is illegitimate because of the ACB seating. I had hoped we could avoid this with a big landslide either way, but it’s looking more and more like a full blown 3rd world color revolution situation.

    Like I said, Trump still has the upper hand with the Insurrection Act, but that’s going to make a bad situation even worse even if it is the right thing to do, which … who knows? Serious dramatic times ahead. Strap in.

  123. 123

    Another problem here: what are we willing to put up with to prevent a Marxist takeover of the US government?

    Let’s say the actual vote is a Biden/Harris win; that the people of the USA, because of decades of conditioning via academia and media, and lately social media influence, actually vote in Marxism? That’s basically the end of the Republic. Should Trump allow that, even if he actually lost the election? Would we want him to? Acting against the vote to save the Republic is itself in violation of the laws of the Republic. What happens when the enemy uses your own system to bring down your system?

    Difficult questions to answer.

  124. 124
    Bob O'H says:

    WJM – isn’t the answer to the question that you should respect the democratic will of the people?

  125. 125
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: Overnight Tally has been uploaded. If the red-stripe “leaners” go to Mr Trump, he will win; as the example of Pennsylvania will show, lean may be a bit of understatement. It is pivotal, here, to understand that the US is a FEDERATED, Constitutional Republic, with some democratic — “we the People” — character. It is not a simple majority rule “democracy,” which on history the framers feared would deteriorate into readily manipulated, imprudent mob rule (see Plato’s parable of the ship of state). The Electoral College forces fifty parallel elections, with some weighting on the sizes of the states. KF

  126. 126
    kairosfocus says:

    BO’H, the overnight map shows the same clear hinterland peasant revolt pattern that went through in 2016. That is a warning to coastal urban elites who would seek to revert to ideological lawless oligarchy under false colours of the liberation of the people, aka Marxism. Even if the moves to dismantle the due balance of rights, freedoms and duties are enacted under colour of law as reinterpreted by the current dominant schools of thought. Namely, law is the rules issued by those with sufficient power and control of the legal presses. By contrast, note that the state exists as an instrument of justice and when a train of abuses and usurpations evinces a design to turn from justice to subjugation, there is a collective reserve right of the people to act with prudence to save themselves from tyranny. At this stage, the US may be heading for a chaotic breakup over coming years if there is not a serious stepping back from the brink. It is evidently likely that the lawfare, media trumpet and street theatre agit prop fronts of the long since in process McFaul colour revolution style 4G shadow civil war are going to ramp up sharply in coming days. At this stage, much is in the balance and the geostrategic vultures are circling. KF

  127. 127
    kairosfocus says:

    WJM, pivotal deeply polarised situations such as this are seldom already decided so landslides will come out; both sides have calculated strategies and risks, believing they have a good chance to win. Many key institutions such as media, big tech, federal agencies and more have already spent their credibility and good will; this means fatal disaffection crouches at the door. And whichever way the election itself is decided, we are seeing manifest signs of the times and of the state of the souls of men. Folly and naked evil are on the march but in such guises that many are compromised or confused. You will recall, I have predicted a two-phase strategic decision, phase 1 to Jan 21 is it then Phase 2 to the end of 2021 as events begin to play out on the ground. KF

  128. 128
    daveS says:

    Let’s say the actual vote is a Biden/Harris win; that the people of the USA, because of decades of conditioning via academia and media, and lately social media influence, actually vote in Marxism? That’s basically the end of the Republic. Should Trump allow that, even if he actually lost the election? Would we want him to?

    I will go as far as to say that if Biden/Harris win the election, then Trump should respect the results, full stop. If Trump wins, Biden should respect the results as well.

  129. 129
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: Multiple stabbings during an incident on DC streets, with hospitalisations. KF

  130. 130
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, see the McFaul blueprint above then recognise what agit prop will do to the sanitised version as published. Sad, but that is the next level of 4G civil war in progress reality to be faced. Colour revolutions with red guards involved, note my comments at 54 above yesterday morning on tape of a smoking gun zoom call. KF

  131. 131
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: I don’t generally like ZH, but it seems to have a reasonable summary of events overnight. For sure, a lot more substantial and nuanced than what I just heard from BBC on our usual 7 am news clip. But then, I lost faith in the beeb many years ago now, they are nothing like what they once were. KF

    PS: Let me clip the first part:

    RESULTS (0235ET):
    TRUMP

    Total 213 – KY (8), IN (11), WV (5), SC (9), AL (9), TN (11), OK (7), MS (6), ME (1/2) FL (29), AR (6), WY (3), LA (8), ND (3), SD (3), NE (4/5), KS (6), MO (10), UT (6), ID (4), OH (18), TX (38), IA (6), MT (3)
    BIDEN

    Total 238 – VT (3), VA (13), CT (7), IL (20), DE (3), NJ (14), RI (4), ME (1/2), MA (11), MD (10), DC (3), NY (29), NM (5), CO (9), NH (4), NE (1/5) CA (55), OR (7), WA (12), AZ (11), NM (5), HI (4), MN (10)

    Only one state flipped (for now if Fox projections hold): Arizona for Biden.

    NBC News projects that Democrats will maintain their control of the House of Representatives.

    It’s looking less and less likely that the Democrats will take over the Senate. They lost crucial races in Montana and Iowa and their path is narrowing rapidly.

    Mail-in ballot delays are hitting now:

    WI (no way we’re announcing tonight),

    MI (Friday),

    PA (no count anytime soon) and

    GA (biggest Dem county stopped counting, Trump leading by 300k).

    That’s 62 electoral votes in total. 62 is a big number in a race for 270. That’s why we might not know tonight.

    Jonathan Tamari of the Philadelphia Inquirer warned that:

    “One huge red flag for Biden in PA: He’s currently trailing in Chester County, a key suburb that Clinton won by 25.5k – and Dems were counting on for a bigger win. Still a lot of mail ballots not counted there, but Biden needs to win big there.”

  132. 132

    DaveS and Bob O’H,

    The problem is twofold. #1, can the “will of the people” be meaningfully discerned at this point? Does a national election actually reveal “the will of the people?” This is why I’ve never said Trump was authorized by “the will of the People,” but rather empowered by the results of the election. I’ve always considered “the will of the people” to be a specious argument. With all the lying politicians do to get elected, and all the partisan “fake news” on both sides, how would any vote “count” as a true reflection of what the majority of the public actually wants?

    #2, What does the constitution actually say? All elected officials are sworn to defend the Constitution and the Republic for which it stands. The oath does not say they must protect the wishes of majority voters; they must protect the constitution and the Republic above all else, against *all* enemies, foreign and domestic. That is not qualified with “unless a majority says otherwise.” That is, enemies of the constitution and the republic.

    Again, very treacherous waters, but interesting fodder for discussion.

  133. 133
    Bob O'H says:

    The problem is twofold. #1, can the “will of the people” be meaningfully discerned at this point?

    Well, yes. More people voted for Biden. This is how democracy works. It’s also why I wrote “the democratic will of the people”.

    #2, What does the constitution actually say? All elected officials are sworn to defend the Constitution and the Republic for which it stands.

    Indeed, and that’s why law courts exist – to provide a way to correct and punish unconstitutional behaviours.

  134. 134

    Bob O’H,
    I’m pointing out the problem in assuming a democratic vote actually represents the will of the people. Repeating that it does doesn’t really address the points I made.

    Also, the problem with the Supreme Court is that it has little credibility now in the minds of about half the population.

  135. 135
    daveS says:

    WJM,

    IMHO, we need to follow our election procedures, which consist of counting pieces of paper, essentially. If we’re lucky, a clear winner will emerge. Then whoever that is must be president next January 20th.

  136. 136
    Bob O'H says:

    WJM – I think you do your fellow USians a dis-service. I think almost all do actually understand how representative democracy works.

    On the Supreme Court, I think it dies still have credibility, but this is something it has to be careful about, essentially by not appearing partisan. I think there are things it can do to manage this, e.g. only ruling narrowly on the ACA, and not re-litigating Roe v Wade, on the basis that it’s a settled precedent. Of course, not always taking one political side or the other would help.

  137. 137

    DaveS and Bob O’H,

    You’re still not responding to my points about “will of the people.”

    As far as the Supreme Court: would it still be credible if one side promises to use court-packing to get their way? That would essentially end any idea of the that court having any “credibility.” Does that not represent an existential threat to the constitutional republic? If a party/candidate “is considering” court packing, should that be considered a threat to our Republic?

  138. 138
    Bob O'H says:

    You’re still not responding to my points about “will of the people.”

    I’m trying to! I’m explaining that most people in a democracy understand that when there is a vote and someone wins, the winner represents the “will of the people”. And if you don’t like that decision, you use the political process to change it.

    As far as the Supreme Court: would it still be credible if one side promises to use court-packing to get their way?

    Yes, it would cease to be credible if that side actually carried it out, and if the judges who were chosen rendered partisan decisions.

    It’s good to see that you understand the fears of liberals over the actions of the Republican Senate.

  139. 139
    daveS says:

    WJM,

    You’re still not responding to my points about “will of the people.”

    That’s true, my post #135 is more like another response to your #123. I don’t have much to say about the abstract “will of the people”*. I’m just describing how I think we should deal with the election results at hand.

    *But perhaps other voting systems, such as ranked choice, could gauge the “will of the people” better than FPTP.

  140. 140
    ET says:

    The is the United STATES. That is why we have the electoral college. It doesn’t matter if more people vote for one candidate. That is not how it works, here, thankfully.

  141. 141
    daveS says:

    It’s looking like Biden in a squeaker, hopefully decided today.

    My county usually splits about 70-30 Republican, but it’s even more lopsided this time. lol.

  142. 142
    ET says:

    If people in the USA are so stupid as to vote for someone with 47 years of political service with nothing to account for during that time besides his personal and family corruption, then we deserve the what that will bring. It will be awesome if Biden wins and the FBI substantiates all of the evidence against him. Then we will have Kamala as President. And it can’t get any worse than that.

  143. 143

    Bob O’H said:

    I’m trying to! I’m explaining that most people in a democracy understand that when there is a vote and someone wins, the winner represents the “will of the people”. And if you don’t like that decision, you use the political process to change it.

    I’m not saying that people don’t understand this concept. They do. It’s irrelevant to my point.

    The people can only judge which candidate represents their will if they have accurate and truthful information about (1) what that candidate has done in the past, and (2) what that candidate will do if they elect that person by judging their platform against past actions.

    The problem is: (1)candidates lie about what they’re going to do in order to get elected, and (2) the media that we get our information from can lie about everything. IOW, what the candidate has done, says and is likely to do can be entirely misrepresented to the public. Because of this, while the vote may represent the will of the people based on the information they have available, the people they elect can actually be working in contradiction to that will – to actually thwart it.

    Thus, voting outcomes in terms of winning candidates do not reflect the will of the people; they reflect their support of what they have been told about the candidates, their past, and their policies. The public can be conditioned to believe a certain candidate represents their will, when the exact opposite can be true.

  144. 144
    daveS says:

    ET,

    Welp, I guess we just suck.

  145. 145
    ET says:

    No, as a people we are just stupid, obviously.

  146. 146
    kairosfocus says:

    FOOD FOR THOUGHT:

    It is not too hard to figure out that our civilisation is in deep trouble and is most likely headed for shipwreck. (And of course, that sort of concern is dismissed as “apocalyptic,” or neurotic pessimism that refuses to pause and smell the roses.)

    Plato’s Socrates spoke to this sort of situation, long since, in the ship of state parable in The Republic, Bk VI:

    >>[Soc.] I perceive, I said, that you are vastly amused at having plunged me into such a hopeless discussion; but now hear the parable, and then you will be still more amused at the meagreness of my imagination: for the manner in which the best men are treated in their own States is so grievous that no single thing on earth is comparable to it; and therefore, if I am to plead their cause, I must have recourse to fiction, and put together a figure made up of many things, like the fabulous unions of goats and stags which are found in pictures.

    Imagine then a fleet or a ship in which there is a captain [–> often interpreted, ship’s owner] who is taller and stronger than any of the crew, but he is a little deaf and has a similar infirmity in sight, and his knowledge of navigation is not much better. [= The people own the community and in the mass are overwhelmingly strong, but are ill equipped on the whole to guide, guard and lead it]

    The sailors are quarrelling with one another about the steering – every one is of opinion that he has a right to steer [= selfish ambition to rule and dominate], though he has never learned the art of navigation and cannot tell who taught him or when he learned, and will further assert that it cannot be taught, and they are ready to cut in pieces any one who says the contrary. They throng about the captain, begging and praying him to commit the helm to them [–> kubernetes, steersman, from which both cybernetics and government come in English]; and if at any time they do not prevail, but others are preferred to them, they kill the others or throw them overboard [ = ruthless contest for domination of the community], and having first chained up the noble captain’s senses with drink or some narcotic drug [ = manipulation and befuddlement, cf. the parable of the cave], they mutiny and take possession of the ship and make free with the stores; thus, eating and drinking, they proceed on their voyage in such a manner as might be expected of them [–> Cf here Luke’s subtle case study in Ac 27].

    Him who is their partisan and cleverly aids them in their plot for getting the ship out of the captain’s hands into their own whether by force or persuasion [–> Nihilistic will to power on the premise of might and manipulation making ‘right’ ‘truth’ ‘justice’ ‘rights’ etc], they compliment with the name of sailor, pilot, able seaman, and abuse the other sort of man, whom they call a good-for-nothing; but that the true pilot must pay attention to the year and seasons and sky and stars and winds, and whatever else belongs to his art, if he intends to be really qualified for the command of a ship, and that he must and will be the steerer, whether other people like or not-the possibility of this union of authority with the steerer’s art has never seriously entered into their thoughts or been made part of their calling.

    Now in vessels which are in a state of mutiny and by sailors who are mutineers, how will the true pilot be regarded? Will he not be called by them a prater, a star-gazer, a good-for-nothing?

    [Ad.] Of course, said Adeimantus.

    [Soc.] Then you will hardly need, I said, to hear the interpretation of the figure, which describes the true philosopher in his relation to the State [ –> here we see Plato’s philosoppher-king emerging]; for you understand already.

    [Ad.] Certainly.

    [Soc.] Then suppose you now take this parable to the gentleman who is surprised at finding that philosophers have no honour in their cities; explain it to him and try to convince him that their having honour would be far more extraordinary.

    [Ad.] I will.

    [Soc.] Say to him, that, in deeming the best votaries of philosophy to be useless to the rest of the world, he is right; but also tell him to attribute their uselessness to the fault of those who will not use them, and not to themselves. The pilot should not humbly beg the sailors to be commanded by him –that is not the order of nature; neither are ‘the wise to go to the doors of the rich’ –the ingenious author of this saying told a lie –but the truth is, that, when a man is ill, whether he be rich or poor, to the physician he must go, and he who wants to be governed, to him who is able to govern. [–> the issue of competence and character as qualifications to rule] The ruler who is good for anything ought not to beg his subjects to be ruled by him [ –> down this road lies the modern solution: a sound, well informed people will seek sound leaders, who will not need to manipulate or bribe or worse, and such a ruler will in turn be checked by the soundness of the people, cf. US DoI, 1776]; although the present governors of mankind are of a different stamp; they may be justly compared to the mutinous sailors, and the true helmsmen to those who are called by them good-for-nothings and star-gazers.

    [Ad.] Precisely so, he said.

    [Soc] For these reasons, and among men like these, philosophy, the noblest pursuit of all, is not likely to be much esteemed by those of the opposite faction [–> the sophists, the Demagogues, Alcibiades and co, etc]; not that the greatest and most lasting injury is done to her by her opponents, but by her own professing followers, the same of whom you suppose the accuser to say, that the greater number of them are arrant rogues, and the best are useless; in which opinion I agreed [–> even among the students of the sound state (here, political philosophy and likely history etc.), many are of unsound motivation and intent, so mere education is not enough, character transformation is critical].

    [Ad.] Yes.

    [Soc.] And the reason why the good are useless has now been explained?

    [Ad.] True.

    [Soc.] Then shall we proceed to show that the corruption of the majority is also unavoidable [–> implies a need for a corruption-restraining minority providing proverbial salt and light, cf. Ac 27, as well as justifying a governing structure turning on separation of powers, checks and balances], and that this is not to be laid to the charge of philosophy any more than the other?

    [Ad.] By all means.

    [Soc.] And let us ask and answer in turn, first going back to the description of the gentle and noble nature.[ — > note the character issue] Truth, as you will remember, was his leader, whom he followed always and in all things [ –> The spirit of truth as a marker]; failing in this, he was an impostor, and had no part or lot in true philosophy [–> the spirit of truth is a marker, for good or ill] . . . >>

    (There is more than an echo of this in Acts 27, a real world case study. [Luke, a physician, was an educated Greek with a taste for subtle references.] This blog post, on soundness in policy, will also help)

    Ask yourself why this is not part of our core, commonly studied education?

    KF

    PS: If you wand another reference, read Ac 27. Here is my discussion. Those who refuse to learn from history doom themselves to repeat its worst chapters.

  147. 147
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: I am uncomfortable with convenient dozens of thousands of vote dumps and count that are utterly one sided; especially in crucial swing areas. KF

  148. 148
    daveS says:

    KF,

    Those who refuse to learn from history doom themselves to repeat its worst chapters.

    Are you sure you have learned correctly from history? Your prediction was that Trump would win and Republicans would make gains in both houses (they will pick up a few seats in the House of Reps it appears). It’s not over yet, but it appears Biden is favored now.

    I guess I’m asking, why should we take your dire predictions seriously? My predictions seem to be closer to the truth than yours, which indicates to me that I have a better sense of what’s going to happen.

  149. 149
    Bob O'H says:

    WJM – I would interpret the will of the people in terms of what they voted for. e.g. if Biden wins, then hte will of the people is that he should be president. This is why it is a representative democracy: a candidate is elected as a representative of the people. Few will agree with every policy position of the representative, but the will of the people is that that person should be their representative.

  150. 150
    Bob O'H says:

    BTW, I am rather amused that Alaska hasn’t been called yet.

  151. 151
    Mac McTavish says:

    KF

    : I am uncomfortable with convenient dozens of thousands of vote dumps and count that are utterly one sided; especially in crucial swing areas. KF

    The mail in ballots are one sided because one candidate told his followers to reduce COVID risk and mail their ballots, and the other candidate told his followers not to use postal ballots.

  152. 152
    ET says:

    Yes, if it is the will of the people that they want someone with whose biggest accomplishment in 47 years of politics is 47 years in politics, then the people are stupid and deserve what they get.

  153. 153
    kairosfocus says:

    MMT, ratios are utterly wrong, the only parallels come from situations you don’t want to think about. KF

  154. 154
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, you have a neat way of snipping out of context, nuh? The counting is not over, the lawfare has not begun hardly; it is utterly clear that the incumbent has come far closer to victory than the sort of blowout that was being so confidently projected for months would have looked like — and it isn’t over. Further, you will note that I clearly indicated that such a victory was the OPTIMISTIC case; if the current radicalised contenders win and win under agendas and tactics already seen, then it implies that the US is in far worse condition than I feared and the road to strategic decision over the next 14 months in the simmering multiple dimensional 4G civil war is going to be far, far more destructive than I already feared. Yes, feared as the US is keystone in our civilisation. The geostrategic vultures, as noted, are circling. Further to this, suggestions on the two houses were even more contingent, of lower likelihood; I think it a mercy — yes, undeserved favour (Someone yet looks for the remnant) — that for pretty sure the senior chamber will be a brake on some of the worst excesses being demanded. Were I in your shoes, I would shudder at the prospect of not merely a hollow but a ruinous, ultimately self-destructive “victory.” But then, it is clear that vultures are not just circling in the skies, some lurk in the shadows hoping to profit from usurping and co-opting or crippling the state which for all its sins is the obvious main barrier to their ambitions for our sadly beset planet. Weep, if you understand. Weep, for the full typhonic force of what is palpably coming; do not let the seemingly sweet south wind mislead you as to what it portends. KF

  155. 155
    daveS says:

    KF,

    Further, you will note that I clearly indicated that such a victory was the OPTIMISTIC case;

    Well, I thought it was clear that the objective was to make an accurate prediction, not an “optimistic” one.

    ETA: Do you have any falsifiable predictions of events in the near term (say through January) that you would like to place on the record?

  156. 156
    Sandy says:

    MacMcTavish
    The mail in ballots are one sided because one candidate told his followers to reduce COVID risk and mail their ballots, and the other candidate told his followers not to use postal ballots.

    🙂 not when hundreds of thousand of ballots appear suddenly overnight and 100% for Biden.

  157. 157
    JVL says:

    ? not when hundreds of thousand of ballots appear suddenly overnight and 100% for Biden.

    Now who’s scaremongering?

    C’mon people! Do what is right, count all the votes, see what the outcome is. IF you have any doubts about the validity put your case forward through the courts. Don’t stoop to click-bait opinion that is not supported by real evidence. No one wants that. No one.

  158. 158
  159. 159
    daveS says:

    > thegatewaypundit

    😂

  160. 160
    JVL says:

    Sandy

    Okay, push it through the courts. If you have a case then let the evidence speak for itself.

  161. 161
    Sandy says:

    DaveS you want to give you cnn,nbc links of Biden frauds? 🙂 🙂 🙂
    https://youtu.be/9A3k7YDLPtY

  162. 162
    Mac McTavish says:

    KF

    MMT, ratios are utterly wrong, the only parallels come from situations you don’t want to think about. KF

    What are you talking about? If the supporters of their respective candidate followed their candidates recommendations, then we would expect a majority of the postal ballots to be Biden supporters. Why is that so difficult for you to accept. I mailed in my ballot as well.

  163. 163
    kairosfocus says:

    MMT, how naive you are; but then I remember too many of the like some 34 – 40 years ago. Do you understand that the name of the game now being played thanks to the past few months of colour revolution tactics is fatal disaffection? Or, should I put it thusly, Lucy just pulled the football one time too many. KF

    PS: Former Sen Ron Paul should give pause, never mind his own baggage. And try this, from 538.

  164. 164
    Sandy says:

    Mac McTavish
    What are you talking about? If the supporters of their respective candidate followed their candidates recommendations, then we would expect a majority of the postal ballots to be Biden supporters. Why is that so difficult for you to accept. I mailed in my ballot as well.

    If it’s so why wouldn’t be let a republican observator to witness the opening of ballots and the counting? Why would appears suddently ballots at 4a.m. in the morning? Will be audited and everybody will be happy. 😉
    https://youtu.be/B8X3McohnWM

  165. 165
    AndyClue says:

    Does anyone know what’s up with Arizona’s count?
    According to Fox News http://www.foxnews.com/electio.....al-results Arizona has been called for Biden, but only 88% of votes have been reported. Trump could easily catch up with Biden, since the difference is just about 70 000 votes.

  166. 166
    Sebestyen says:

    @AndyClue: Trump would have to get at least 57% of the remaining votes to win. Considering the mail-in ballots have been overwhelmingly for Biden so far I highly doubt he stands a chance. If you extrapolate the remaining votes with the current vote ratios in each county, Biden will win with ~78k votes ahead.
    Also, if the counts in PA and GA continue like they did yesterday, those states will also flip.

  167. 167
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: Understand the rising disaffection and concerns here (notice the onward linked); do not dismissively imagine that this is isolated and readily disregarded as empty speculation. We are in the Lucy pulled the football once too many times territory here. This is utterly saddening, given that the US has the capability to have easily run a sound, clearly above the board election with verification of voters and proper audit trails on votes, then proper chain of custody to counts, with cross checks guaranteeing sound counts (reports of transposed tallies point to serious questions of far wider import); leading to electoral integrity. Whatever else happens onward, there is a clear need for sound reform of how the US conducts elections. So-called mail-in votes* (often on push, mailed out ballots), ballot harvesting, resistance to voter verification, lack of proper scrutineers and absence of frankly international observers will not continue should such reforms be put in place. KF

    * As opposed to properly verified absentee voting on verified request.

    PS: It looks like the lawfare phase is about to begin. This election may end up in one or more of the backstops set up in the Constitution and laws, under supervision of courts. The sing off the same hymn sheet media and censorship by big tech are going to feed further disaffection. And all of what is now predictable could have been averted if the political classes had simply been willing to do sound reforms, or if the courts had taken up the matter properly.

  168. 168
    Sandy says:

    AndyClue
    Does anyone know what’s up with Arizona’s count?
    According to Fox News http://www.foxnews.com/electio…..al-results Arizona has been called for Biden, but only 88% of votes have been reported. Trump could easily catch up with Biden, since the difference is just about 70 000 votes.

    It’s not about about how many votes are in ballots it’s about how many are legal . Party of baby killers blew it big time. We know the result of election Trump assemble 50,000 people Biden 10 people. Ratio: 5000:1 😉

  169. 169
  170. 170
    kairosfocus says:

    U/D: Mr Giuliani’s remarks on breakdown of electoral integrity and on law suits are appended to the OP.

  171. 171
    AndyClue says:

    @Sandy:

    > DaveS you want to give you cnn,nbc links of Biden frauds?
    > https://youtu.be/9A3k7YDLPtY

    “Video falsely claims possible voter fraud in Detroit. It actually shows a WXYZ photographer loading camera gear”
    https://www.wxyz.com/news/video-claiming-to-show-possible-voter-fraud-in-detroit-is-actually-a-wxyz-photographer-loading-camera-gear

  172. 172
    Sandy says:

    Project Veritas ,fraud evidences:
    https://youtu.be/fS6xOuhsiJw

    @AndyClue
    I believe nothing coming from democrat media or supporters of Biden . Party of baby killers lost all credibility .

  173. 173
    kairosfocus says:

    AC, please see the appended to OP, following the links. The concerns are legitimate and the underlying point is why — after years of reported problems and the infamous hanging chad election — sound reform was not put in place and MAINTAINED. Lucy has pulled the football one too many times. KF

  174. 174
    daveS says:

    Looks like the right-wing agit-prop machine is in high gear, manufacturing “””evidences””” of election fraud. 🙂

  175. 175
    AndyClue says:

    @kairosfocus:

    > AC, please see the appended to OP, following the links.

    Yes, I’m sorry. I’ve missed that you too posted a link to the video. You’re welcome.

  176. 176
    ET says:

    If the supporters of their respective candidate followed their candidates recommendations, then we would expect a majority of the postal ballots to be Biden supporters.

    If the voters did what they wanted to then we would expect a pleasant mix of mail-in ballots.

    It’s easy to play games when you can just say anything, eh midget?

  177. 177
    ET says:

    daves- that is to be expected when you have a less than honest, low integrity democratic party. 😛

  178. 178
    Bob O'H says:

    BTW, I’m still finding it hilarious that Alaska hasn’t been called yet.

  179. 179
    ET says:

    No one cares, Bob. Given the vastness of the State and the spread of voters, it always takes days.

  180. 180
    daveS says:

    BTW, I’m still finding it hilarious that Alaska hasn’t been called yet.

    Some say they’re still counting votes from 2016…

  181. 181
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, your turnabout attempt fails the giggle test. For decades, it has been massively evident that the US has had an electoral system that is fraud-prone. Indeed, in 1960, it is pretty clear fraud decided an election; a remark I saw that for 70 years it has been fraud resistant can be dismissed. The sorts of fraud-resistant measures I outlined above are more or less a commonplace in the Caribbean as points of concern. Wake up and smell the burnt coffee. In this case, as soon as I saw the mail in and ballot harvesting notions, I saw serious opportunities for fraud. That hundred thousand ballot class chunks can turn up effectively all one way and the like simply tell us that what was set up is working as planned. Planned, as there has been persistent resistance to obvious reforms any auditor would insist on; on that track record of a train of abuses and usurpations, for cause, a prudent person will infer nefarious design backed by corrupt, ruthless power. Yes, the echo of 2nd para US DoI is deliberate. Lucy has pulled the football too many times. The election is now in the lawfare stage, for cause. And even there, I do not have high confidence. The US is in a far worse state than I feared. The issue is how much needless harm will be done over the next 14 months in the ongoing 4G civil war, and how the circling geostrategic vultures and those lurking in the shadows hope to play the subversion or weakening of the USA. Generations to come will curse this one, for cause. KF

  182. 182
    Querius says:

    From what I’m reading about cities with more votes than registered voters, about boxes of ballots all showing up with the same candidate selected, about thousands of dead people registered to vote, it leads me to believe that there are people so committed to winning an election and imposing their ideas on everyone, they are willing to give up

    – Their integrity
    – Determining the true will of the people
    – Having a government by the consent of the people

    So, this is a coup in progress. That’s actually not unusual considering all the countries of the world. It just means that unless the election is invalidated and a new one held that assures the integrity of the results, we will be living in a one-party dictatorship.

    Most Christians in the world are currently living in or have lived in dictatorships, and they are comforted with the knowledge that Jesus told the Roman powers that “My kingdom is not of this world, otherwise my servants would fight.”

    After tearing up our Constitution, the political forces that are determined to win at all costs will have to rule. What a disaster that will be. Then, there will be a purge among their forces beginning with the criminals who did their dirty work. Won’t they be surprised! This always happens in history.

    As for myself and my family, our ultimate loyalty remains with our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ. And we know that there will be a judgment in the end with their eternal destiny at stake. We can only pray for such people to realize that they’ve been deceived before it’s too late for them.

    -Q

  183. 183
    kairosfocus says:

    Q, this is one phase of a 4G civil war that is in turn linked to a multipolar ongoing geostrategic contest. Scroll up to the OP and take a dirty form read of the McFaul programme and the SOCOM insurgency escalator. KF

    PS: McFaul, colour revolution programme:

    The years since 2000 have seen a surprising new wave of democratic breakthroughs [–> colour revolutions] in the postcommunist countries of Serbia, Georgia, and Ukraine. This article compares and contrasts these three cases, naming seven common factors which made the breakthroughs [–> revolutions] in these countries possible:

    1) a semi-autocratic rather than fully autocratic regime [–> or perception, often created by major media singing from the same hymn sheet];
    2) an unpopular incumbent [–> alt., media manipulation to demonise and stir critical mass of hostility];
    3) a united and organized opposition [–> so, shadowy, orchestrating networks];
    4) an ability quickly to drive home the point that voting results were falsified [–> i.e. media narrative domination, which can be just as easily used to ruthlessly slander a scapegoat],
    5) enough independent media to inform citizens about the falsified vote [–> too often, this may be the orchestrated media . . . falsification needs to have a sound basis of evidence],
    6) a political opposition capable of mobilizing tens of thousands or more demonstrators to protest electoral fraud [–> or, red guards as cannon fodder], and
    7) divisions among the regime’s coercive forces [–> what of, nests of the connected embedded in state, policing and law-making arms].
    [See: Transitions from Post Communism, Journal of Democracy Volume 16, Number 3 July 2005]

  184. 184
    daveS says:

    KF,

    I’m busy today, so no time to look into these things, but what’s the verdict on the video you appended to the OP? The one that AndyClue posted about. Is it misleading?

  185. 185
    daveS says:

    Don Jr now retweeting this from Mark Levin (all caps in the original, ofc):

    REMINDER TO THE REPUBLICAN STATE LEGISLATURES, YOU HAVE THE FINAL SAY OVER THE CHOOSING OF ELECTORS, NOT ANY BOARD OF ELECTIONS, SECRETARY OF STATE, GOVERNOR, OR EVEN COURT. YOU HAVE THE FINAL SAY — ARTICLE II OF THE FED CONSTITUTION. SO, GET READY TO DO YOUR CONSTITUTIONAL DUTY

  186. 186
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, there is one video I have appended, it is a statement by Mr Guiliani on legal actions and cause for such. It documents that the court phase has begun. I linked two further vids (as opposed to appended), one showing an apparent whistleblower which I used to highlight the feasibility of monkey business with mail in ballots (and specifically have not endorsed his particular claims). The other shows a vid and discussion by an attorney who claims to have observed ballots arriving under suspicious circumstances. Even were that falsified there is more than enough other evidence to make the point. And the underlying point is blatant: why haven’t election procedures in the US been long since reformed in ways obvious to say a dime a dozen auditor? That is the real smoking gun, and that persistent provision of opportunity enables the act, making the threshold for drawing the conclusion that what was enabled and persisted in despite repeated calls for sound reform is happening much lower than otherwise. A particularly blatant issue from years past is votes beyond registration, and a current one is statistically suspicious blocks of ballots in the dozens of thousands range, especially when proper scrutiny is frustrated. It is time to face facts about a sick electoral system that has been kept sick for a long time despite reasonably available remedy, and what that enables. KF

  187. 187
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, does that mean they must ratify or have a veto over electors? KF

  188. 188
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: Looks like, legal action is beginning, in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia? If so, the court phase is beginning. KF

  189. 189
    daveS says:

    KF,

    The parties choose the electors, but I thought this had to be done already (e.g., Hilldawg is an elector this time around). Apparently Levin is suggesting Republican members of congress choose “faithless” electors who will vote for Trump regardless of the outcome of their state election. That’s how it’s being interpreted on Twitter anyway.

  190. 190
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: NY Post remarks, “preliminary numbers indicated that 26 percent of Trump’s voting share came from nonwhite voters — the highest percentage for a GOP presidential candidate since 1960 . . . . exit polls indicated that 32 to 35 percent of Latinos voted for the president .” Specifics were not given but they claim “young black men are gravitating to the GOP at a remarkable pace (given the baseline).” KF

  191. 191
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: Similarly, NY Post writes “Unbent by reputational beatings for failing to predict President Trump’s 2016 victory, pollsters had Biden coasting to the White House with an electoral and popular vote landslide, with potential wins even in Republican strongholds Texas and Ohio.” They highlight “In Florida, polling averages had Biden leading before Tuesday. Quinnipiac University, a well-established pollster, had Biden ahead five points in an Oct. 28-Nov. 1 poll. But Trump carried Florida by an easy 3.4 points with roughly 96 percent of ballots counted.” Similarly, “In Texas and Ohio, Democrats pined for shocking upsets, backed up by polls showing Trump tied or even losing,” but instead “The president trounced Biden by six points in Texas and eight points in Ohio as of Wednesday afternoon, with most votes counted.” And much more. KF

  192. 192
    daveS says:

    KF,

    This might be good news for Trump if he tries again in 2024. 🙂

  193. 193
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, deflection. The polling was bad again, discrediting the industry; and the proportion of voters who are not white voting republican gives the lie to racist accusations and shows strong disquiet with radical, socialist proposals. But then, it is the next 14 months that will play out such and related issues. KF

  194. 194
    kairosfocus says:

    A thought: BANKERS know how to transport valuable small paper items in large quantities, sort them, count them, keep them secure, enter them into digital records, keep same accurate and accountable. Could the US consider drawing on that readily accessible pool of expertise? Where, also, there is usually a fit and proper persons standard to become a licensed banker. Could a consultancy be developed? KF

    PS: Votes, in the case of US national elections, address offices that handle funds in the trillions and value [GDP, stock of wealth] far beyond that. In addition, just a few votes in a close election can make a huge difference.

  195. 195
    kairosfocus says:

    QUESTION Why aren’t we at least as concerned to soundly manage our votes as we are to manage cash and account handling in banks?

  196. 196
  197. 197
    Sandy says:

    Mail in ballots are not legal by default , they became legal after checking but democrats don’t allow republican observators so ballots counted without both sides observators are illegals and should not be considered.
    https://youtu.be/AN2zlWy1pbw

  198. 198
    Sandy says:

    Why Does Biden Have So Many More Votes Than Democrat Senators In Swing States?
    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/why-does-biden-have-so-many-more-votes-democrat-senators-swing-states

  199. 199
    rhampton7 says:

    … the main reason that the Republican Party gets painted as a haven for conspiracy kooks is the fact that the Republican Party is a haven for conspiracy kooks. It would seem less full of conspiracy kooks if it were less full of conspiracy kooks. The GOP needs to read Cicero: Esse quam videri.

    The kookery of the GOP goes all the way to the top. Donald Trump is many things, and one of those things is a big-league conspiracy kook. He was bigly into the Obama birth-certificate stuff but also has dabbled in anti-vaccine kookery and 9/11 kookery. He publicizes QAnon kookery when he isn’t helping QAnon kooks get elected to office as Republicans.

    Newly elected Republican representative Marjorie Taylor Greene? QAnon kook. Jo Rae Perkins, who just got beat like a rented mule in the Oregon U.S. Senate race? QAnon kook. Mike Cargile, who got pummeled in that House race in California? Big ol’ QAnon kook.

    There are more.

    Pretty much the entire talk-radio/Fox News conversation is conspiracy kookery: the “Deep State,” which is the slightly more respectable version of the Luciferian pedophile cult of QAnon kookery.

    Republicans—lots of them—will tell you that climate change is not something about which we have a policy disagreement but a hoax, scientists and crypto-Marxists colluding to ruin the U.S. economy on behalf of China or Russia or whomever. They’ll tell you that evolution is a hoax, too, and the scientific journals are colluding to defend it from the devastating scientific critiques of some lawyer in Palm Beach who has figured it all out.

    Right-wing social media and some of those half-assed conservative “news” sites are right now trafficking in bumf about election fraud. Why? Because they are conspiracy kooks. It’s their business model.

    The thing is, there is election fraud.

    We know this. People go to jail for it from time to time. It probably doesn’t throw many elections, but it may—there’s a pretty good case that fraud cost Norm Coleman of Minnesota a U.S. Senate seat in 2008. There may be shenanigans under way right now. But whose word are you going to take on that? Donald Trump’s? Marjorie Taylor Greene’s?

    You can’t send a conspiracy kook to the White House and more conspiracy kooks to Congress and then complain when people say your party is full of conspiracy kooks. Because it is full of conspiracy kooks.

    … There is corruption. There are abuses of power. There are coverups. There isn’t an underground pedophile cult secretly running things from behind the scenes guided by the ghost of Saul Alinsky and the Frankfurt School. This has been a problem for the Right since the days when the John Birch Society was claiming that Dwight Eisenhower—Ike himself!—was a “conscious, dedicated agent of the Communist conspiracy.” The Birchers may have had some good points about other stuff, but nobody took them seriously, because they didn’t deserve to be taken seriously, because they were kooks.

    If Trump loses this election, as seems likely, there’s going to be a lot more kookery afoot. Kookery isn’t the solution—it’s the problem.

    https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/some-thoughts-about-kooks/

  200. 200
    Seversky says:

    I don’t see anything here about the long and unsavory history of the various dodges and stratagems used by Republicans for voter suppression in the United States.

  201. 201
    kairosfocus says:

    Seversky (& attn RH7), I don’t doubt that Republicans have their own history of corrupt behaviour [my history with follytricks might be peeking through there . . . ], though my recall of the notorious history of voter suppression in the US is admittedly dominated by the well known history of Democrats in the South. That said, your transparent turnabout projection by distractor tells us that you have no answer on the material issue on the table, the sustained maintaining of a blatant, corruption-prone electoral system that manifestly would not pass a benchmark comparison with how a half-decent co-op bank handles cash and accounts, or what any run of the mill auditor would instantly demand, much less the very electoral integrity standards AMERICAN election integrity experts have routinely promoted all across the world for decades. That requires explanation, and it is ugly given common knowledge of 1960 and the events of 2000 just to point to two cases. Elections in the US are gravely substandard because it suits the dominant elites to have them that way. At this stage, frankly, I would only trust carefully managed paper ballots, guarded in the way banks guard cash. The course of this current election and the sort of red flag event marked by 100+k ballots all neatly in a row taking advantage of a manifestly dubious innovation tell me all I need to know. Yes, this election is now in lawfare phase against the backdrop of a 4G shadows civil war, with geostrategic vultures circling and more lurking in shadows. But, that context carries a further meaning: Lucy just pulled the football once too many times. The sort of disaffection that is palpably rising in the context just noted, points to a wild ride over the next 14 months in which the main strategic decision will emerge. The sad thing is, this is not some isolated little backwater, the whole world is going to pay a stiff price for American political folly and shenanigans — suicidal folly warned about as long ago as in the parable of the ship of state in Plato’s republic . . . democracies need external cultural buttresses or they fail horribly and usually bloodily due to faction games and ruthless power moves. Which concern is my interest as a near neighbour likely to be badly impacted. Wake up and smell the burned coffee. KF

  202. 202
    kairosfocus says:

    PS: Since it is so unfamiliar to many and people are unlikely to scroll up:

    It is not too hard to figure out that our civilisation is in deep trouble and is most likely headed for shipwreck. (And of course, that sort of concern is dismissed as “apocalyptic,” or neurotic pessimism that refuses to pause and smell the roses.)

    Plato’s Socrates spoke to this sort of situation, long since, in the ship of state parable in The Republic, Bk VI:

    >>[Soc.] I perceive, I said, that you are vastly amused at having plunged me into such a hopeless discussion; but now hear the parable, and then you will be still more amused at the meagreness of my imagination: for the manner in which the best men are treated in their own States is so grievous that no single thing on earth is comparable to it; and therefore, if I am to plead their cause, I must have recourse to fiction, and put together a figure made up of many things, like the fabulous unions of goats and stags which are found in pictures.

    Imagine then a fleet or a ship in which there is a captain [–> often interpreted, ship’s owner] who is taller and stronger than any of the crew, but he is a little deaf and has a similar infirmity in sight, and his knowledge of navigation is not much better. [= The people own the community and in the mass are overwhelmingly strong, but are ill equipped on the whole to guide, guard and lead it]

    The sailors are quarrelling with one another about the steering – every one is of opinion that he has a right to steer [= selfish ambition to rule and dominate], though he has never learned the art of navigation and cannot tell who taught him or when he learned, and will further assert that it cannot be taught, and they are ready to cut in pieces any one who says the contrary. They throng about the captain, begging and praying him to commit the helm to them [–> kubernetes, steersman, from which both cybernetics and government come in English]; and if at any time they do not prevail, but others are preferred to them, they kill the others or throw them overboard [ = ruthless contest for domination of the community], and having first chained up the noble captain’s senses with drink or some narcotic drug [ = manipulation and befuddlement, cf. the parable of the cave], they mutiny and take possession of the ship and make free with the stores; thus, eating and drinking, they proceed on their voyage in such a manner as might be expected of them [–> Cf here Luke’s subtle case study in Ac 27].

    Him who is their partisan and cleverly aids them in their plot for getting the ship out of the captain’s hands into their own whether by force or persuasion [–> Nihilistic will to power on the premise of might and manipulation making ‘right’ ‘truth’ ‘justice’ ‘rights’ etc], they compliment with the name of sailor, pilot, able seaman, and abuse the other sort of man, whom they call a good-for-nothing; but that the true pilot must pay attention to the year and seasons and sky and stars and winds, and whatever else belongs to his art, if he intends to be really qualified for the command of a ship, and that he must and will be the steerer, whether other people like or not-the possibility of this union of authority with the steerer’s art has never seriously entered into their thoughts or been made part of their calling.

    Now in vessels which are in a state of mutiny and by sailors who are mutineers, how will the true pilot be regarded? Will he not be called by them a prater, a star-gazer, a good-for-nothing?

    [Ad.] Of course, said Adeimantus.

    [Soc.] Then you will hardly need, I said, to hear the interpretation of the figure, which describes the true philosopher in his relation to the State [ –> here we see Plato’s philosoppher-king emerging]; for you understand already.

    [Ad.] Certainly.

    [Soc.] Then suppose you now take this parable to the gentleman who is surprised at finding that philosophers have no honour in their cities; explain it to him and try to convince him that their having honour would be far more extraordinary.

    [Ad.] I will.

    [Soc.] Say to him, that, in deeming the best votaries of philosophy to be useless to the rest of the world, he is right; but also tell him to attribute their uselessness to the fault of those who will not use them, and not to themselves. The pilot should not humbly beg the sailors to be commanded by him –that is not the order of nature; neither are ‘the wise to go to the doors of the rich’ –the ingenious author of this saying told a lie –but the truth is, that, when a man is ill, whether he be rich or poor, to the physician he must go, and he who wants to be governed, to him who is able to govern. [–> the issue of competence and character as qualifications to rule] The ruler who is good for anything ought not to beg his subjects to be ruled by him [ –> down this road lies the modern solution: a sound, well informed people will seek sound leaders, who will not need to manipulate or bribe or worse, and such a ruler will in turn be checked by the soundness of the people, cf. US DoI, 1776]; although the present governors of mankind are of a different stamp; they may be justly compared to the mutinous sailors, and the true helmsmen to those who are called by them good-for-nothings and star-gazers.

    [Ad.] Precisely so, he said.

    [Soc] For these reasons, and among men like these, philosophy, the noblest pursuit of all, is not likely to be much esteemed by those of the opposite faction [–> the sophists, the Demagogues, Alcibiades and co, etc]; not that the greatest and most lasting injury is done to her by her opponents, but by her own professing followers, the same of whom you suppose the accuser to say, that the greater number of them are arrant rogues, and the best are useless; in which opinion I agreed [–> even among the students of the sound state (here, political philosophy and likely history etc.), many are of unsound motivation and intent, so mere education is not enough, character transformation is critical].

    [Ad.] Yes.

    [Soc.] And the reason why the good are useless has now been explained?

    [Ad.] True.

    [Soc.] Then shall we proceed to show that the corruption of the majority is also unavoidable [–> implies a need for a corruption-restraining minority providing proverbial salt and light, cf. Ac 27, as well as justifying a governing structure turning on separation of powers, checks and balances], and that this is not to be laid to the charge of philosophy any more than the other?

    [Ad.] By all means.

    [Soc.] And let us ask and answer in turn, first going back to the description of the gentle and noble nature.[ — > note the character issue] Truth, as you will remember, was his leader, whom he followed always and in all things [ –> The spirit of truth as a marker]; failing in this, he was an impostor, and had no part or lot in true philosophy [–> the spirit of truth is a marker, for good or ill] . . . >>

    (There is more than an echo of this in Acts 27, a real world case study. [Luke, a physician, was an educated Greek with a taste for subtle references.] This blog post, on soundness in policy, will also help)

    And yes, read the link to the microcosm case in Ac 27.

  203. 203
    kairosfocus says:

    PPS: Another direct reference:

    When . . . it becomes necessary for one people . . . to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

    We hold these truths to be self-evident, [cf Rom 1:18 – 21, 2:14 – 15; note, law as “the highest reason,” per Cicero on received consensus], that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. –That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, –That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security . . . .

    We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions [Cf. Judges 11:27], do, in the Name, and by the Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.

    That is ONE way fatal disaffection manifests itself. The emergent US was very lucky — blessed would be better — the track record on outcomes of revolutions is on average very poor. Sound reformation is the much better approach, once the power brokers are willing.

  204. 204
    Sandy says:

    Rhampton7
    I didn’t catch that part where you talk about demoncrats that won’t allow republican observators on verifying ballots legality. WHY would they do such a obvious dumb move? 😉
    Pollsters also were in bed with demoncrats to give room for cheating otherway why would call wrongly for demoncrats and don’t call obvious republican win states. Why would demoncrats stop counting and cover the windows of counting locations? Because they need to make new ballots and to “legalize” without observators to see.
    Party of slavery, of segregation, party of KKK,BLM and antifa , of baby killers , of Russia hoax- demoncrat party .

  205. 205
    kairosfocus says:

    RH7,

    National Review is hardly an objective observer on events, but a few remarks on selective points will help:

    >>the main reason that the Republican Party gets painted as a haven for conspiracy kooks is the fact that the Republican Party is a haven for conspiracy kooks.>>

    — Well poisoning

    — Also, the reality is that shady coalitions and deals, often with hidden compromise and leverage, are commonplace among oligarchic elites. And even wider. There is a reason why one speaks of organised crime.

    — One man’s progressive agenda is the next man’s destructive ideology and lies driving secret and destructive plans. On the part of Marxism, the latter is all too well documented in many forms.

    — list of the accused, the problem here is that in addition to a patently broken electoral system that would not pass benchmark comparison with cash and account handling at a co-op bank, defamation law in the US is seriously broken so it is routine for reputations to be trashed. The Kavanaugh hearings should have been a wake up call on that, and the grand narrative on the Steele dossier also, which caught up the sing from the same hymn sheet media for YEARS.

    >>Republicans—lots of them—will tell you that climate change>>

    — key clue here: define climate and its change, then show ability to understand why competent researchers differ from the IPCC summary for policy makers narrative (contrasting the ideological rubbish on “consensus” . . . the only scientific consensus worth the paper it’s written on is the pessimistic induction, perhaps stated in positive form: scientific theories and models are provisional and open-ended, subject to new EMPIRICAL findings and analysis)

    — climate FYI is a 33 year moving average of weather patterns day by day through the year; it is by definition always changing and is subject also to multiple year and decadal quasi-oscillations etc, with significant input from the Sun’s variability

    — the anthropogenic climate change thesis is subject to discussion, and sound policy needs to reflect the energy-work-economy nexus.

    — computer simulations and long term projections on a known chaotic system are NOT empirical facts

    >>is not something about which we have a policy disagreement but a hoax, scientists and crypto-Marxists colluding to ruin the U.S. economy on behalf of China or Russia or whomever.>>

    — loaded language pivoting on picking at extremes; the big denial of policy importance is that on the limitations and open endedness of science

    >>They’ll tell you that evolution>>

    — again, definitions game ignoring structural limitations of science and suppressive of legitimate diversity on schools of thought. This is a pattern typical of ideologues in power and their fellow travellers . . . and that is history not empty conspiracism. Try history of eugenics to see my point.

    — evolution is too broad and dealt with in a sweepingly dismissive way, that hurls the elephant while appealing to narrative dominance. Small scope changes are one thing, molecules to Mozart evo by blind chance and mechanical necessity is a completely different other. The latter cannot sneak in under the cover of the first . . . stalking horse tactics.

    — it is of course in this context that functionally specific complex organisation and associated information [FSCO/I] becomes a critical threshold issue that points to design as empirically justified cause . . . blowing up the chance + necessity narrative

    — you explain to us the discovery of complex algorithmic alphanumeric code in the heart of the cell and why on empirical evidence one may justify the implication that — despite the massive empirical evidence on source of goal directed linguistic processes — we may conclude chance + necessity on actual observation.

    — Multiply by other cases and you will see why there is significant, principled dissent amounting to alternative paradigms.

    >> is a hoax, too,>>

    — when imposed by ideological domination with censorship of dissent, we are dealing with ideological dishonesty.

    >>and the scientific journals are colluding to defend it from the devastating scientific critiques of some lawyer in Palm Beach who has figured it all out.>>

    — this is a dishonest mischaracterisation of such degree that it disqualifies the article and brings those who cite with approval into disrepute.

    — journal censorship is in fact demonstrated as is unwarranted career busting and much more.

    >>Right-wing social media and some of those half-assed conservative “news” sites are right now trafficking in bumf about election fraud. Why? Because they are conspiracy kooks. It’s their business model.>>

    — again, piling on of accusations and refusal to address serious concerns and issues. Just one fact (and there are many) is decisive: large 100k+ blocks of ballots neatly lined up all but 100% and poofing up just where they are needed, in a context of substandard procedures persisted in years and decades on end

    — again, I point out that the bench mark of cash and account handling at a common garden variety coop bank would be a telling comparison. The refusal to reform election procedures and demand to include further dubious innovations is cause to infer likely fraudulent intent and imposition of a long train of abuses and usurpations.

    >>The thing is, there is election fraud.>>

    — admit the minor to dismiss the major, esp when in 1960 fraud decided an election. That is a crucial modern case, which somehow does not appear in the discussion. 1876, we can say is long ago, though the outcome may be relevant.

    >> There isn’t an underground pedophile cult>>

    — there is serious evidence of widespread decadence, and it implicates elites to the point where sex trafficking of children is a significant organised crime issue. This clearly implicates in some cases people from the elites as the case of the Royal family member suggests.

    >> secretly running things from behind the scenes>>

    — there are elites, there is decadence and criminality, there are agendas; whether this constitutes any one cult or more likely a CULTURE of depravity is another matter. On culture of depravity, the mere existence of a sustained abortion holocaust is definitive proof. The US’ part is 63+ million, currently rising at 400k per year.

    >> guided by the ghost of Saul Alinsky and the Frankfurt School.>>

    — the deleterious, corrosively cynical and corrupt influence of Saul Alinsky on US politics, media and more (including education) is manifest and undeniable, so this sweep it away is disqualifying.

    — The Frankfurt variant School of Marxism has a clear history, leading to the now increasingly dominant cluster of so-called critical theories. Here is Enc Brit as a handy reference, one you should have long since attended to but of course studiously ignore:

    Critical theory, Marxist-inspired movement in social and political philosophy originally associated with the work of the Frankfurt School. Drawing particularly on the thought of Karl Marx and Sigmund Freud, critical theorists maintain that a primary goal of philosophy is to understand and to help overcome the social structures through which people are dominated and oppressed. Believing that science, like other forms of knowledge, has been used as an instrument of oppression, they caution against a blind faith in scientific progress, arguing that scientific knowledge must not be pursued as an end in itself without reference to the goal of human emancipation. Since the 1970s, critical theory has been immensely influential in the study of history, law, literature, and the social sciences.

    — this sanitises the Marxist implications of course — see Howard Zinn and the 1619 project of NYT for a case in point, with the Critical Race Theory case as a highly relevant case; where, the use of delegitimisation of innovation, entrepreneurship and investment by use of labour theory of value themes leads to toxic polarisation and the ruinous economics that was fully discredited on the ground 30 years ago. What is currently playing out comes straight from that “influence” and the further application of Cultural/colour revolution techniques, hence the insurgency escalator by SOCOM and the modifications implied by the dirty form McFaul programme.

    — it is noticeable that you tried to use a fallacy loaded clip to dismiss rather than address squarely and substantially. Telling. Let me put the McFaul programme, dirty form, back on the table:

    The years since 2000 have seen a surprising new wave of democratic breakthroughs [–> colour revolutions] in the postcommunist countries of Serbia, Georgia, and Ukraine. This article compares and contrasts these three cases, naming seven common factors which made the breakthroughs [–> revolutions] in these countries possible:

    1) a semi-autocratic rather than fully autocratic regime [–> or perception, often created by major media singing from the same hymn sheet];
    2) an unpopular incumbent [–> alt., media manipulation to demonise and stir critical mass of hostility];
    3) a united and organized opposition [–> so, shadowy, orchestrating networks [–> see here, U-Haul a riot]];
    4) an ability quickly to drive home the point that voting results were falsified [–> i.e. media narrative domination, which can be just as easily used to ruthlessly slander a scapegoat],
    5) enough independent media to inform citizens about the falsified vote [–> too often, this may be the orchestrated media . . . falsification needs to have a sound basis of evidence],
    6) a political opposition capable of mobilizing tens of thousands or more demonstrators to protest electoral fraud [–> or, red guards as cannon fodder], and
    7) divisions among the regime’s coercive forces [–> what of, nests of the connected embedded in state, policing and law-making arms].
    [See: Transitions from Post Communism, Journal of Democracy Volume 16, Number 3 July 2005]

    — that is what you have needed to face squarely but tried to use a fallacy loaded clip to brush aside.

    >>If Trump loses this election, as seems likely, there’s going to be a lot more kookery afoot. Kookery isn’t the solution—it’s the problem.>>

    — Lesse, I add from 207 below on red flags highlighted by an actual auditor [note, language warnings]:

    The massive turn out alone is a red flag.

    But as for doing better…

    The late night spikes that were enough to close all the Trump leads are a red flag.

    The statistically impossible breakdown of the ratios of these vote dumps is a red flag.

    The ratios of these dumps being far better than the percentages in the bluest of blue cities, even though the historical data does not match, red flag.

    The ratios of these vote dumps favoring Biden more in these few battlegrounds than the ratio for the rest of the country (even the bluest of the blue) red flag.

    Biden outperforming Obama among these few urban vote dumps, even though Trump picked up points in every demographic group in the rest of the country, red flag.

    The poll observers being removed. Red flag.

    The counters cheering as GOP observers are removed, red flag.

    The fact that the dem observers outnumber the GOP observers 3 to 1, red flag (and basis of the first lawsuit filed)

    The electioneering at the polls (on video), red flag.

    The willful violation of the court order requiring the separation of ballots by type, red flag.

    USPS whistleblower reporting to the Inspector General that today they were ordered to backdate ballots to yesterday, red flag.

    The video of 2 AM deliveries of what appear to be boxes of ballots with no chain of custody or other observers right before the late night miracle spikes, red flag.

    Any of those things would be enough to trigger an audit in the normal world. This many flags and I’d be giggling in anticipation of catching some thieves.

    And it isn’t that I have to do better. I’m just an gen pop observer who happens to be a retired auditor with a finely tuned [SNIP] detector. This is going to the courts.

    — notice, such concerns are side stepped adroitly, Wilson Arte of Rhetorique style, in haste to belittle, smear and dismiss. RED FLAG!

    — when I graded papers, one of the more useful comments was ECF, error(s) carried forward.

    — ECF.

    KF

  206. 206
    kairosfocus says:

    Sandy, if you are going to make strong assertions or accusations, you need to substantiate or at minimum give specific links. It is also advisable to moderate language. KF

  207. 207
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: An actual auditor weighs in, please note, language warning right from title/url on. (That is one of the many saddening cultural coarsening issues of the Trump era.) KF

    PS: Let’s clip the flags listed:

    The massive turn out alone is a red flag.

    But as for doing better…

    The late night spikes that were enough to close all the Trump leads are a red flag.

    The statistically impossible breakdown of the ratios of these vote dumps is a red flag.

    The ratios of these dumps being far better than the percentages in the bluest of blue cities, even though the historical data does not match, red flag.

    The ratios of these vote dumps favoring Biden more in these few battlegrounds than the ratio for the rest of the country (even the bluest of the blue) red flag.

    Biden outperforming Obama among these few urban vote dumps, even though Trump picked up points in every demographic group in the rest of the country, red flag.

    The poll observers being removed. Red flag.

    The counters cheering as GOP observers are removed, red flag.

    The fact that the dem observers outnumber the GOP observers 3 to 1, red flag (and basis of the first lawsuit filed)

    The electioneering at the polls (on video), red flag.

    The willful violation of the court order requiring the separation of ballots by type, red flag.

    USPS whistleblower reporting to the Inspector General that today they were ordered to backdate ballots to yesterday, red flag.

    The video of 2 AM deliveries of what appear to be boxes of ballots with no chain of custody or other observers right before the late night miracle spikes, red flag.

    Any of those things would be enough to trigger an audit in the normal world. This many flags and I’d be giggling in anticipation of catching some thieves.

    And it isn’t that I have to do better. I’m just an gen pop observer who happens to be a retired auditor with a finely tuned [SNIP] detector. This is going to the courts.

    He led with:

    I am more offended by how ham fisted, clumsy, and audacious the fraud to elect him is than the idea of Joe Biden being president. I think Joe Biden is a corrupt idiot, however, I think America would survive him like we’ve survived previous idiot administrations. [–> one person is not the issue, an ideological push is] However, what is potentially fatal for America is half the populace believing that their elections are hopelessly rigged and they’re eternally [SNIP]. And now, however this shakes out in court, that’s exactly what half the country is going to think.

    This is Lucy pulling the football one too many times territory.

  208. 208
    Sandy says:

    The truth about Democratic party
    https://youtu.be/g_a7dQXilCo

  209. 209
    daveS says:

    KF,

    More “smoking guns” and “red flags”, eh? Where’s the hard evidence?

    I’m told that Drumpf has a large team of lawyers monitoring the situation. Presumably they would be aware of these alleged smoking guns and red flags. Are the lawyers* taking any of these very sensational stories seriously? For example, that crazy claim about ~100,000 fake Biden ballots suddenly appearing? It’s having the intended effect on the true believers, by the way. Kevin Sorbo on Twitter:

    I flipped a coin 138,000 times and it landed heads each time, believe me

    *I mean the competent ones, not Rudy Giuliani.

  210. 210
    JVL says:

    “President Trump spoke early on Friday about the US election count, making a number of accusations of fraud for which he did not provide evidence. We’ve fact-checked some of his claims.”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54837926

  211. 211
    Bob O'H says:

    kf – as you note, that person was an auditor, but of money not votes. From the way he starts his piece, it’s clear that he’s biased, so I would hope he would present solid evidence for each red flag. But no: there are a few anecdotes, including one that has been debunked (see comment 171).

    If you want to provide evidence of widespread fraud, try not using such obviously partisan sources. You won’t persuade anyone who obviously isn’t already persuaded.

  212. 212
    Sandy says:

    Hard evidences? 🙂 This one is enough:Democrats opened ballots blocking republican observators to witness. All those ballots are illegal .

    bbc=cnn= globalist agenda .

  213. 213
    JVL says:

    Sandy: bbc=cnn= globalist agenda .

    Your position is unfalsifiable. You’ve already decided that whatever Trump or one of his supporters says is true.

    No one is going to take you seriously if you just dismiss anything that you disagree with.

    Did you even read the article which addresses some very specific points with real information?

  214. 214
    kairosfocus says:

    DS,

    why don’t you take a moment to follow up the link given and respond to the Auditor’s first level details?

    Let me clip just one slice [audits use samples and examples as yardsticks, informed by close study of the mechanics of fraud compiled into bodies of knowledge and best practice], related to what was a decisive point for me once I spotted it, as extreme statistical fluctuations are not likely to be mere statistics:

    Then on election day, states like Florida that were obviously swinging hard for Trump with no possible mathematical way for Biden to come back, the news wouldn’t call for Trump. States where it was still clearly up in the air just based on even the most cursory of statistical analysis (Arizona) they called for Biden ASAP. But that was just innocent mistakes, and not an attempt to set the narrative of inevitable Biden victory by major media.

    When Trump pulled ahead in the midwestern swing states by what were starting to appear to be insurmountable amounts, they suddenly threw the brakes on the counts. (my favorite part of this was when it looked like Trump was going to win, the Chinese Yaun crashed, which is pretty telling about just how [SNIP] a candidate Joe Biden is) Okay, suddenly stopping all those counts seemed a little weird, but most of America went to bed thinking that this was a close race, with Trump in the lead in the EC.

    Then we woke up in the morning, and everybody saw the 538 graphs showing a massive middle of the night spike for Joe Biden, with almost zilch in corresponding votes for Trump.

    Now, one of those got walked back as “typo”. (again, funny how all these “mistakes” keep going in one direction) but the damage was already done, and all of a sudden most of America was paying a whole lot more attention to places like Wisconsin and Michigan than we usually do. That’s how flags work. And it turned out that single six figure typo was only one of many statistically improbable Biden vote dumps to come.

    Now, all of my liberal acquaintances were quick to dismiss these, with some gas lighting about how it was just deep blue inner cities votes coming in, and of obviously they’re going to vote for Joe Biden… Except that is them deliberately missing the point. It isn’t that Biden won those, it is that he won them with statistically improbable amounts. [–> this is the same fluctuation issue that is routinely missed in dismissals of the significance of FSCO/I as a signature of design, and BTW — ka-ching — this is a design inference issue. UD’s central concern is directly relevant]

    I don’t know what the current numbers are now, but as of yesterday morning the Wisconsin Midnight Mystery Dump was something like 98.4% for Joe Biden. That’s better than the bluest of blue cities manage. That’s better than Biden did in DC. I saw one 28k dump yesterday (I want to say it was 538 talking about PA) that was listed as ALL for Biden. That’s basically statistically impossible.

    In a small populace, you can get 100% of the vote. However the larger the sample, the more likely there will be dissenting votes. [–> the specified complexity vs fluctuations issue, design inference moves to the centre, as is anticipated in 2nd para US DoI] Even in the bluest of blue areas or reddest of red areas, somebody is going to be a cranky dissident, or an old person is going to fill in the wrong circle. When you get into the hundreds or thousands yet maintain that kind of perfect ratio, basically impossible.

    Plus we are supposed to believe that Joe Biden, the guy barely campaigned, who got like 12 sad looking people to his rallies, was more popular than Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama? This election was just that much more special? Uh huh… Except that these few battleground state blue cities vote ratios don’t match up with other blue cities around America, where it appears Trump’s support among every demographic group other than white males went UP.

    Then people were quick to dismiss these statistically improbable spikes with “of course the mail in voting favors Biden, republicans vote in person.” Yes, but they don’t favor Biden with these kind of ratios anywhere else in America. The ratios are more like 60-40 or 70-30. But 97-3? Oh [SNIP] no. So either Biden is a better campaigner to the inner cities (though he rarely left his basement) than the eloquent messianic figure of Barack Obama [–> and there is a ground game debate], or there’s something fishy going on here.

    Now, as a suspicious auditor type who spent a lot of hours looking for [SNIP] in complex systems, my gut tells me fake ballots were getting dumped into the system to make up the difference. And oh look, here is a giant pile of red flags indicating that’s the case . . . .

    supposedly a bunch of the sudden Biden spikes weren’t just statistically improbable, they also voted for president but not the down ballot races. Now, lots of people will vote for president but don’t care about down ballot. However, when you get a pile of those in a row, that suggests somebody in a hurry filling out the mission critical bubble and then moving down stack, assembly line style.

    There’s more, but this is not going to go away. Lucy pulled the football one time too many.

    KF

  215. 215
    ET says:

    seversky:

    I don’t see anything here about the long and unsavory history of the various dodges and stratagems used by Republicans for voter suppression in the United States.

    Because that only exists in your little-bitty mind.

  216. 216
    daveS says:

    KF,

    Is Trump’s crack team of lawyers ever going to present this blogpost information in court?

  217. 217
    kairosfocus says:

    BO’H: I have been pointing out that a common, garden variety auditor would have spotted something wrong with the US electoral system decades ago. I further compared banks which manage large numbers of small documents with risk of fraud, on a routine and somewhat familiar basis: cash, accounts, records, linked IT; requirement for fit and proper persons as licenced/regulated senior managers. Take that as a bench mark and the US electoral system will not pass the smell test. In that context, I noted 1960 and 2000 as cases that SHOULD have sparked major reform but didn’t: “a long train . . .” Then, I picked up this auditor’s actual comments. In context, I note audits are NOT of money but of complex sociotechnical systems that handle valuables including money and of course records and technology, with a particular focus on controlling long studied weak points known to be the usual places where fraud creeps in. Look, even having a key officer who does not take vacations is a test point! There are also performance/management audits. The point is, the system has been poor for decades, and due to faction balances has been resistant to sound reform. Now, we see clusters of not unexpected problems emerging as flags. Serious audits and likely criminal investigations are indicated. Notice too the dirty form McFaul patterns. Predictably, little or nothing will be done unless there is an explosion of some kind. Which, in a simmering 4G civil war, is very possible. KF

  218. 218
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, this election is likely to go to supreme court on evidence of red flags. If such meet a wave of dismissals in lower court, leading to confirming the concern that the fix is in, you are frankly looking at fatal disaffection. You. do. not. want. to. go. there. KF

  219. 219
    Bob O'H says:

    Sandy @ 212 – no, that’s an allegation. You need to provide some actual evidence to back it up.

    kf @ 217 – an auditor of money probably doesn’t know about about the ins and outs of how votes are handled in US elections (unless they are heavily involved in elections, of course). And it’s not as if the votes aren’t being audited, they are checked in real time by members of both parties. And if the votes are close enough, the parties can demand they be recounted.

    If you want to demonstrate fraud, you need stronger evidence than a cartoon that hasn’t been drawn for over 20 years.

  220. 220
    daveS says:

    KF,

    If this claim about 100,000 fake Biden votes were actually true, it would be catastrophic for us. I would think Trump’s lawyers would eventually get around to pursuing it. I would certainly want to know about it and prevent such incidents in the future.

    I’ll predict that this claim will gradually fade, due to lack of evidence, just like so many other sensational conspiracy theories do, outside of the Alex Jones cult.

  221. 221
    Bob O'H says:

    Oh, I should also add that the way to present evidence that might point to fraud it to take the red flags, show the evidence, and then go through an explanation of the process that lead to the evidence, and carefully explain why alternative explanations are not reasonable.

  222. 222
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, the flag point emerged overnight 3/4 Nov. That is what told me something was seriously amiss; you know enough statistics to know that such a pattern is not statistically reasonable, leading to a strong design inference. The flags are real, they need to be faced and dealt with properly. Now, I know there are several fail safe points in the Constitution and laws, and a time frame locked into law, which should force a decision by is it Jan 6? However, given the simmering 4G shadow war, the current case is a clear case of operations in such a war, per dirty form McFaul. Yes, that is colour revolution territory, as I have been concerned over for months. That is not going to fade away, not this time, regardless of censorship, media narratives, singing off the same hymn sheet and more. This set of stunts has sent the polarisation in the US to yet another huge escalation; which has precisely zilch to do with Mr Jones, save as very peripheral; the credibility of US elections as currently conducted (and for decades) just took a fatal credibility hit. The lesson of history is plain, the alternative to the ballot box is another kind of box measured by calibre. This is playing with hellish fire and that is where you do not want to go. KF

  223. 223
    Bob O'H says:

    And Biden is now ahead in PA. So that’s going to be called for him pretty soon – the remaining votes come from areas with strong Democrat leans.

    It’ll be interesting to see if the margin is much larger than the number of votes that arrived after Tuesday, because these might not end up being counted.

  224. 224
    ET says:

    Fraud has been demonstrated. Your willful ignorance isn’t our problem.

    date stamped illegally

    Then there is this fraud

  225. 225
    daveS says:

    KF,

    I know some extremely elementary probability, and can deal with simple problems where balls are drawn at random from an urn. I don’t know anything about the process of counting and reporting election results.

  226. 226
    kairosfocus says:

    BO’H, why not respond on specific points, including the history of elections in the USSR etc and their voting patterns contrasted with those of constitutional democracies. Yes, this is a design inference and selective hyperskepticism towards such when inconvenient is notorious. Do, tell us about fluctuations and large numbers and election patterns when push ballot mail in votes are harvested by third party groups, with reports on the table on vote buying . . . one of the most common forms of cheating. Likewiswe, tell us how secure and trustworthy the post office is and how counting without close scrutineers — that’s the language I learned back when — is oh so credible. BTW I recall an incident when electoral officers came door knocking to get me enumerated, they had party scrutineers. Yes, from registration on. I confess, I looked at the lot and told them to leave me alone, murderers. That was my native land shortly after its 4g civil war that it still suffers consequences from. Decades before, they came by our house and my parents were signed up. KF

  227. 227
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, the urn case is relevant, as is the blood sample case, urns can have v large numbers in ratios that are typical. Say, the urn has 70:30 W:B, and has millions of balls. What are the odds that a sample of 10,000 would by chance have no or just a few B? On the alternative, cherry picked, that is far more plausible to the point of moral certainty. Similarly, if one has an infection a blood sample is not likely to miss the virus or whatever. Compare the details clipped from the auditor’s article on percentages and comparatives. We duly note how evidence already there is being responded to, it speaks. KF

  228. 228
    Bob O'H says:

    ET – neither of those links are demostrations. The first is an accusation, which is being investigated. The second is a series of accusations that should be investigated. I’m sure the Attorney General would have been interested in following these up. And yes, both sets of accusation should be investigated.

    kf @ 226 – Eh? We’re not discussing Soviet elections, so why respond to that? If there is evidence of fraud in this election, it should be presented. The only win Trump’s campaign has had in the courts is that they (and the Democrat observers) are now allowed to stand 6 feet away. If there was evidence of fraud, you would have thought they would have got a bit more than that.

  229. 229
    kairosfocus says:

    BO’H, IIRC, votes after election day may well be illegal. That is one of the issues. KF

  230. 230
    Mac McTavish says:

    KF

    DS, this election is likely to go to supreme court on evidence of red flags.

    The supreme court does not act on red flags, it acts on solid evidence and argument. So far, there is zero solid evidence, just unsubstantiated accusations. And the few that have gone to court so far have been tossed for lack of evidence. One of them (I forget which one at this point) went to court over the counting station not allowing republican observers. When asked by the judge if there were no observers present the witnesse’s response (a republican) was that the number wasn’t zero. The judge ripped him a new one and tossed the case.

    Mail in ballots are not new. Counting ballots after election night is not new. Ballots are verified. Many are voided for one reason or another. Again, none of this is new.

  231. 231
    ET says:

    Both are demonstrations, Bob. And both will be validated. But that is moot. If the people want a career politician whose biggest accomplishment is being a career politician to lead them, then so be it. We will reap what we have sown and it won’t be good for the people. So it will be another 1 term presidency. If it even lasts a full term. The FBI has the evidence of Biden’s lies and corruption so we will see how that plays out.

  232. 232
    ET says:

    It is very telling that the people who don’t know anything about evidence are saying there isn’t any evidence for fraud.

  233. 233
    daveS says:

    KF,

    I have no idea if the process of counting and reporting votes is at all similar to drawing balls at random from an urn.

  234. 234
    Sandy says:

    Ballots are verified. Many are voided for one reason or another. Again, none of this is new.

    Ballots are not “verified” because are manipulated only by democrats and are in favor of democrats. 🙂 Nobody believes democrat party anymore .Audit on all votes from states with problems to see how many dead people, illegal immigrants and from other states voted . 🙂 🙂 🙂 Big mistake of democrats not to let observators to see ballots.

  235. 235
    Sebestyen says:

    @DaveS: Theoretically it is, but only if they’d have put all ballots (incl. mail-ins) on one big pile, mixed them thoroughly and then counted. But this obviously wasn’t done that way.

    The fact that the mail-in ballots of PA, GA and other states turn out mostly blue is not surprising. It was expected to be that way as it has happend before…

    Example: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/08/brace-blue-shift/615097

  236. 236
    Bob O'H says:

    kf @ 229 – is there any reliable evidence of votes being cast after election day? I know there was a claim about 53 votes, but no evidence was presented to the court that these were cast after election day.

  237. 237
    AndyClue says:

    @Sebestyen & DaveS:

    Someone actually posted a graph of the vote blocks in PA (no clue whether the data is valid):

    https://mobile.twitter.com/friscojosh/status/1324735493905420289

    (based on https://github.com/alex/nyt-2020-election-scraper)

  238. 238
    daveS says:

    Thanks, AndyClue, quite interesting.

  239. 239
    AndyClue says:

    This fraud claim is serious, possibly at least 6000 fraudulent votes in Nevada: https://twitter.com/johnrobertsFox/status/1324509478138597377
    “Letter to the Clark County, NV District Attorney alleging voter fraud by people who were not legal residents of Clark County.”

  240. 240
    Sebestyen says:

    @AndyClue: If the evidence they got is as bad as the grammar of that letter, there won’t be a case, that’s for sure.

  241. 241
    Mac McTavish says:

    AndyClue

    This fraud claim is serious,…

    Except that this is not a fraud claim.

  242. 242
    ET says:

    Of course it’s a fraud claim. People voting in counties they do not live is voter fraud. Duh.

  243. 243
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, Seb et al,

    selective hyperskepticism on your part does not change the implications of what has emerged.

    As to fluctuations around the population value, an election is a sort of sample of an underlying population, so will reflect sampling distributions around the population, perhaps with some bias. It is reasonable that in communities of any scale, with two party systems, support will range from about 70:30 to 50:50, as sampled (i.e. those who vote). When we see patterns well outside that range, that is typical of one party fear-driven turnouts, as we saw in the USSR and the like or in what are still called garrison constituencies.

    That’s why we see a striking red flag here. One that unfortunately fits in with a much broader pattern of patently substandard practice sustained for decades in the face of calls for serious reforms. It looks like the voyage of folly is going to have to play out the hard way. (The bad thing is, 40 years later, many still refuse to acknowledge what happened in my native land. That, too, is a sobering lesson.)

    But then, all of this is belabouring the obvious to those disinclined to hear it.

    I just note for record, for the benefit of those who will make good use.

    KF

  244. 244
    kairosfocus says:

    Bo’H, you clearly have not noted the flags. I should note, the day ends at midnight and polls close a bit after sunset as a rule. KF

  245. 245
    daveS says:

    KF,

    If fraud has occurred, I trust that Trump’s legal team is equipped to find it and bring it to court.

  246. 246
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N on runs, with 70% odds in favour, independent trials (flipping a coin with 70% chance of H): 10 — 0.028; 100 — 3.235*10^-16; 1,000 — 1.253*10^-155 — threshold bat which, effectively unobservable in our cosmos [that is about the FSCO/I threshold for inferring moral certainty, design]; 10,000+ — well beyond that. we are looking at up to 100k plus in runs. That’s structural-systematic, beyond reasonable doubt. Design. KF

  247. 247
    daveS says:

    KF,

    No sane person (on either “side”) believes that anything like flipping 100,000 heads in a row actually happened. Strawman detected. 😛

  248. 248
    Mac McTavish says:

    ET

    Of course it’s a fraud claim. People voting in counties they do not live is voter fraud. Duh.

    Except that there is no evidence that anyone has cast a ballot in a state they don’t live in.

  249. 249
    ET says:

    Wow. If you are not registered in a specific COUNTY within any State, then you cannot vote in that county. Clearly Mac is just an insipid troll feeding on its on stupidity.

    You aren’t even supposed to be able to vote in a different city or town within the county other than the city or town in which you are registered to vote

  250. 250
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N-FYI: Federal Election Commission chair reports on evident fraud in key states:

    I do believe that there is voter fraud taking place in these places,” he said. “Otherwise they would allow the observers to go in.”

    Despite winning a court order, which allows the Trump campaign to send observers to watch ballot counting in Pennsylvania from six feet away, Trainor said ballot watchers “have not been allowed into the polling locations in a meaningful way.” [–> it seems, 20 – 30 ft, too far to look at say signature validation, ink used, etc]

    He said when observers have been permitted to watch, the goalpost has been moved away from the six feet required by the court order.

    “They have not been allowed that meaningful access,” he said, adding there has not been transparency in the election.

    “Our whole political system is based upon transparency to avoid the appearance of corruption,” he said pointing out that Pennsylvania and other states are not conducting counting in a transparent manner.

    “State law allows those observers to be in there,” he said, adding if the law isn’t being followed then this election is “illegitimate.”

    He said the lawsuits filed by the Trump campaign are “very valid allegations” that need to be “fully vetted” by the court system. He predicts some of the legal challenges will likely end up in the Supreme Court.

    This is of course consistent with the “red flags.”

    KF

    PS: Such, certainly, was not the impression given by the once great BBC.

  251. 251
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, long runs of ballots in a bloc giving one sided runs in a context as was already discussed (note the auditor’s comparisons with other deep blue zones) are equivalent to such long runs with a biased 2-sided die AKA a coin. The population of support is comparable to the urn, the vote as reported is a sample, the biased 70:30 odds 2-sided die model allows us to gain a sense from runs patterns similar to statistical process control — think of a sample being taken one at a time in succession. And you know far more than enough math to recognise it, on long track record. KF

  252. 252
    Sandy says:

    Trump is too smart to not prepare a proper trap for what he knew democrats would do . I wait for something to drop like wikileaks in 2016 or Hunter laptop. 🙂

  253. 253
    rhampton7 says:

    KF,
    the National Review, William Buckley’s “home”, is the most well known and well thought of publication on the Right.

  254. 254
    rhampton7 says:

    Allahpundit at HotAir, a blog on the Right

    1. Nearly all of the mail ballots being counted today arrived well before Election Day. Some may have arrived last night or this morning or whatever, but most of these ballots have been sitting in some election office gathering dust because by law they can’t be counted until November 3. Hardly anyone among them missed a deadline in sending their ballot in.

    2. Republicans insisted on waiting until November 3 to start the count. Democrats begged them to change the law and do what Florida does, counting mail ballots early so that we’d know the full results on election night. Republicans said no. And there’s only one logical reason for them to have done that given the president’s insistence over the past week that Americans deserve to know who’s president by midnight on November 3. They wanted to manufacture a “red mirage” in the Rust Belt precisely so that Trump could lie to our stupid faces about chicanery causing his lead to evaporate. Again: Al we’re seeing in MI, WI, and PA today is what happened last night in Florida but in reverse. The GOP wants you to believe otherwise so that they don’t have to admit Trump lost fair and square.

    3. Per my point above about partisan polarization, Trump’s own rhetoric about mail ballots this year ensured that they’d be even more solidly blue than usual. He wanted Republican voters to view voting by mail as corrupt or unpatriotic or whatever, and he succeeded. Now he pretends to be surprised that there are 80/20 leans towards Biden among the people who did choose to vote that way.

    Because Trump is Trump, he’s now forced his own allies to choose between either joining him in this sinister con about the “blue shift” being a form of cheating or of having to side against him. We’re still verrrrry early in this process, but indications are that only the hardest of hardcore MAGA-ites will go along. Others won’t:

    Marco Rubio: The result of the presidential race will be known after every legally cast vote has been counted.

    Ben Shapiro: No, Trump has not already won the election, and it is deeply irresponsible for him to say he has.

    As you’ll see below, Chris Christie also reality-checked him on the air last night after Trump predictably insisted that he’d won the election as the mail votes in MI, WI, and PA were finally being counted. He also insisted he’d go to the Supreme Court for vindication, which makes no sense on its face — what legal claim does he think he has to stop the counting of valid ballots? — but makes perfect sense when you remember that Trump views politics in all forms as purely transactional. He put Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett on the Court so now they “owe” him. If they need to manufacture some legal complication that makes the “blue shift” illegitimate in order to keep him in power, that’s their problem as far as he’s concerned.

    https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/11/04/trump-whats-surprise-ballot-dumps-eating-leads/

  255. 255
    Mac McTavish says:

    ET

    Wow. If you are not registered in a specific COUNTY within any State, then you cannot vote in that county. Clearly Mac is just an insipid troll feeding on its on stupidity.

    Then where is the fraud? The claim is just that there are people who had moved out of the state that were still on the voter’s list at their previous residence. There is a delay. That is why most states have a registration deadline for getting on the voters list.

    I don’t doubt that there are some people who submitted the ballot when they were not eligible. As probably happens with every election. But it is a far cry from that to widespread, organized voter fraud. And, given that the states being contested are fairly evenly split between Biden and Trump, it is reasonable to assume that there are roughly an equal number of illegible Trump voters on the voter list as there are ineligible Biden voters.

  256. 256
    daveS says:

    Sandy,

    I wait for something to drop like wikileaks in 2016 or Hunter laptop.

    Eager for more pics? 😂

    I don’t think that would sway the election in his favor, in any case.

  257. 257
    rhampton7 says:

    Erick Erickson’s tweets from today (founder of RedState, Right-wing radio host and pastor)

    EE: Starting to have people get really upset at the GA-GOP for not stopping the alleged theft of the Georgia election since the GOP controls the state. That’s going to be poisonous to the Senate runoffs among Republicans if it sets in.

    EE: Show your evidence. Present it under oath in a federal court. If you can’t, then you need to concede. A judiciary full of Trump appointees should be willing to consider it fairly.

    A Twitter user replied: They are going to, Erick. This isn’t helpful and you should understand anger better.

    EE: I understand anger and despair better than a whole lot of people, man.

    Another Twitter user: No matter who ultimately wins, Trump or the cheaters, we must work to get someone 1000x meaner and more nationalist than Trump in there for 2024. Pay back.

    EE: Considering non-Trump Republicans are getting more votes than Trump in a lot of states, probably not the wisest idea. His policies without his tweets would have won him the election. In other words, the GOP is about to learn the wrong lessons from 2020.

    @EWErickson

  258. 258
    ET says:

    How President Trump could have won this election without a problem: All President Trump had to do to win this election without a problem is to have stayed away from social media.

  259. 259
    kairosfocus says:

    RH7, the fluctuation tells the tale, in context. As for the article you cited, it was shown in sufficient detail just how it went wrong. KF

  260. 260
    Mac McTavish says:

    ET

    All President Trump had to do to win this election without a problem is to have stayed away from social media.

    That certainly would have helped. As would giving a consistent message on COVID, stop calling in to Fox and Friends, stop maligning our allies, stop cozying up to dictators, stop firing advisors…..

  261. 261
    rhampton7 says:

    What vexes me most about these stories of families being torn apart by partisan politics is the underlying assumption shared by both sides. It’s a worldview that elevates politics—national politics—to the primary source of meaning in people’s lives. It reminds me less of the 1850s in America than of the 1860s in England. Catholics felt that a Protestant on the throne would overturn everything they believed about their country, and vice versa. Today, we talk about a Republican or Democrat in office as if they were monarchs with control over the nation’s soul.
    I’m a conservative, so I’m enamored with smaller and more limited government anyway. But even accounting for that bias, I still think the answer is devaluing the currency of national politics. If you want stronger, more ambitious government, fine. Advocate for it at the local level, where the powers that be are more connected to the reality on the ground, and where political winners and losers have to look each other in the eye.
    Alternating between parties that want to unify a vast and diverse country under “one best way” is a recipe for perpetual strife. Politics should be about solving the specific problems that government is suited to solve, not defining our souls.

    https://www.aei.org/op-eds/lets-take-a-deep-breath-and-a-step-back/

  262. 262
    rhampton7 says:

    @RichLowry

    The idea that pre-Trump Republicans simply let elections be stolen from them doesn’t accord w/ the Florida 2000 recount experience—Bush team was highly aggressive, but, crucially, had a thought-out strategy and didn’t throw out nonsense allegations hoping something would stick

  263. 263
    rhampton7 says:

    @DavidAFrench
    If there is actual evidence of material fraud, those claims will not remain on Twitter or talk radio. They’ll end up in court, exposed to legal inquiry. Law geeks, look not to Twitter but to PACER to discern the merit in the most alarmist of claims:

    https://frenchpress.thedispatch.com/p/the-presidential-election-was-legitimate

    @DavidAFrench
    The counting must continue and all legal challenges must be heard, but there is nothing that should cause Americans to believe that this election was illegitimate, and it is shameful for anyone to suggest or allege otherwise.

  264. 264
    rhampton7 says:

    Andrew Kaczynski
    @KFILE
    Republican Sen. Kevin Cramer says on the radio that Fox News is engaging in a “cover up” of their Arizona call saying, “Fox News owes the American people an apology.”

    He says Fox News should fire their Decision Desk and political editor Chris Stirewalt.

    Jonah Goldberg
    @JonahDispatch
    Screw this guy. Really. @ChrisStirewalt is a friend. He’s also a total pro. This is conspiracy theory crap and Kramer is making a fool of himself.

  265. 265
    rhampton7 says:

    Erick Erickson
    @EWErickson
    There are lots of claims and allegations of vote fraud, ballot tampering, etc. When those claims are put in court filings by the President’s attorneys, who attest to a reasonable belief about their veracity by filing in court, take them seriously. Until then, be skeptical.

  266. 266
    rhampton7 says:

    The former governor of Florida and 2016 Republican presidential candidate shared a photo of a QAnon conspiracy post taken from Facebook, and said it was sent to him multiple times on Thursday evening.

    “I got this four times last evening. Very scary that this is spreading as though it is true.”

    https://www.newsweek.com/jeb-bush-says-he-received-qanon-conspiracies-4-times-election-unfolds-scary-1545680

  267. 267
    rhampton7 says:

    One of the armed men arrested while traveling to Philadelphia’s vote-counting center is a QAnon obsessive who posted violent, anti-Semitic comics online. The other is a President Trump super-fan who urged social media users to poll watch and suggested the 2020 election was being stolen from the president.

    QAnon conspiracy theorist Antonio Lamotta, 61, was arrested Thursday with 42-year-old Joshua Macias, the co-founder of “Vets for Trump,” on federal firearms charges after authorities reportedly received a tip that a group was headed from Virginia to the Pennsylvania Convention Center, the site of the city’s ballot count, to “straighten things out.”

    The pair drove from Virginia with pistols, an AR-15 rifle, and roughly 160 rounds of ammunition, according to Philadelphia police. They lacked valid Pennsylvania firearms permits to carry, and were charged with carrying a concealed firearm without a license, a third-degree felony, and carrying a firearm on public streets or public property, the District Attorney’s office said Friday. Both men, who are from Chesapeake, Virginia, were accompanied by a woman who was not charged with any crime.

    “We will be requesting that both be held without eligibility for bail when they are arraigned later this evening, as this alarming incident is still very much under investigation regarding additional charges,” the district attorney’s office added.

    The arrests come as QAnon promoters stoke outlandish theories that the ballot count in Pennsylvania is a scheme to steal the election from Trump.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/armed-man-busted-near-philly-vote-center-site-is-joshua-macias-vets-for-trump-founder

  268. 268
    bornagain77 says:

    A few interesting notes from Facebook:

    A ‘glitch’ in software resulted in approx. 5500 votes flipping to Biden from Trump in ONE county in Mich.. 47 other counties in Mich. use that same software.

    https://www.facebook.com/TPointUK/videos/354606865639468

    the ‘glitch’ very well may be systematic across the nation.

    https://twitter.com/kylenabecker/status/1324886498722934784

    Montgomery, a whistleblower, said that Biden operatives deployed the software during the primary to defeat Sanders in these states,,,. Fl, Georgia, Texas, Penn. Wis. Mich. Nev. and Arizona.,,, And also note that this article was written 3 days before the Presidential election and the current fiasco in 6 of those 8 states.

    https://theamericanreport.org/2020/10/31/biden-using-scorecard-and-the-hammer-to-steal-another-u-s-presidential-election-just-like-obama-and-biden-did-in-2012/?utm_source=ground.news&utm_medium=referral

    Kyle Becker found that the ‘glitch’ software used in Mich. is also in every one of the swing states:

    https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=10119126018497494&set=pcb.10119126021830814

    https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=10119126019041404&set=pcb.10119126021830814

    KF should really appreciate this,,,, mathematics sniffed out a systematic glitch before any hard evidence actually came in

    https://theredelephants.com/there-is-undeniable-mathematical-evidence-the-election-is-being-stolen/

  269. 269
    bornagain77 says:

    Hmmm, seems the Intel agencies, or at least some democratic operatives in the Intel agencies, have gone rogue once again

    https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=405035943861430&set=a.110911056607255

  270. 270
    bornagain77 says:

    Dominion Voting Systems: The company at the center of Michigan and Georgia voting ‘glitches’
    by Michio Hasai November 6, 2020
    Excerpt: Adding to the intrigue, Dominion Voting Systems has apparent ties to Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat. Bloomberg reported in April of last year that Dominion Voting Systems — which commands more than a third of the voting-machine market without having Washington lobbyists — has hired its first, a high-powered firm that includes a longtime aide to Speaker Nancy Pelosi. They hired Brownstein Farber Hyatt & Schreck. Nadeam Elshami, Pelosi’s former chief of staff, is one of the lobbyists on the account.

    In Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Nevada, the vote counts are being closely watched. Members of the Trump campaign have called for transparency and monitoring of the ongoing vote tallies while the Biden campaign has called for “all votes to be counted.” But with questions about the software that is counting millions of the votes, it’s likely the Trump campaign will want further scrutiny placed on numbers coming out of jurisdictions that work with Dominion Voting Systems.

    Editor’s Note:

    This is beyond suspicious. With reports of “The Hammer” and “Scorecard” being used to steal the election, additional attention needs to be put on Dominion Voting Systems. If the fix is in, this company may be involved.
    https://noqreport.com/2020/11/06/dominion-voting-systems-the-company-at-the-center-of-michigan-and-georgia-voting-glitches/?s=04
    Per Wayne Baird on Facebook
    “The software is from Avid Technologies Inc. and Richard C. Blum is the owner.. And is Dianne Feinstein’s Husband..”,,, “Dominion Smartmantics board member Mark Malloch-Brown (direct ties to Soros through Open Society); and company hired lobbyists who assigned former Nancy Pelosi chief of staff to account (Nadeam Elshami). This rabbit hole is deep and dark!”

  271. 271
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: The fundamental issue is that the system, for decades and in the teeth of calls to reform it, has ben manifestly substandard for decades. I have noted, it would not bear a benchmarking comparison with how a run of the mill coop bank handles cash and accounts. Historically, in the modern era in 1960, an election was notoriously decided by fraud, and in 2000 there was a clear reminder. As BA77 has reminded, machines in use have had serious questions (compare Teller Machines). The jokes on dead rising to vote now see a case of someone apparently born in 1823. The sustaining of such a system points to a culture of corrupt politics and intent to manipulate elections. Compound that with the complicit, censoring media and big tech companies as well as the further culture of slander. Mix in dubious agendas starting with the holocaust of 63+ millions of living posterity in the womb and rising currently at 400k/yr. Observe, months of manifest McFaul colour revolution tactics and the call to defund/abolish police as a yardstick of the rot involved. Observe, the rise from richly deserved death of marxist thinking manifest in critical theories and in such street pushes, with the complicity of major media [1619 project, Howard Zinn et al and NYT are a key case] and much of the political establishment. Duly note circling and lurking geostrategic vultures. Of course, notice, unresponsiveness to such underlying issues, facts, evidence and import, here at UD and elsewhere. All of this and more indicate that the situation is gravely perilous, even as mass ignorance, complacency and complicity indict. The next 14 months will be pivotal, and future generations will, for cause, curse us for our collective wicked folly. KF

  272. 272
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: More from our auditor, on red flags:

    [Part of?] The problem is that there’s a ton of info swirling around, some good, some [SNIP]. It doesn’t help that reporters are usually dishonest or not very bright and absolute trash at presenting data. Part of our problem is Big Tech is actively stomping on stories that make their guy look bad. (while compiling these I discovered that several of the links I’d looked at yesterday had been vanished by Facebook or Twitter) [–> the censorship, section 230 game is another big tell on a fundamentally broken, bankrupt system being manipulated by powerful interests]

    For the last four years half the country was all “Trump is illegitimate! He’s not my president! He stole the election!” so on and so forth, and that was all based upon nebulous ideas about “Russian Interference”, The Russian Interference mostly boiled down to them buying ads on Facebook, or having fake bots trolling on Twitter last time. [–> on years and dozens of millions spent on investigations and a dubious impeachment, all of which were amplified by the sing off the same hymn sheet media] This time the actual giant megacorporations, Facebook, Twitter, and Google themselves have actively censored stories in order to protect their candidate. So you think after this pile of suspicious election [SNIP] that makes the game look totally rigged, the other half of the country is going to accept Joe Biden as legitimate? Oh hell no. [–> discredit and disaffection, and singing the conspiracy theory hymn on the sheet will not change the fact that Lucy just pulled the football once too many times]

    When you are auditing you see mistakes happen all the time. Humans make errors. Except in real life, mistakes usually go in different directions. When all the mistakes go in the same direction and benefit the same parties, they probably aren’t mistakes. They’re malfeasance. [–> a long train of abuses and usurpations . . . ]

    Signs of our times.

    KF

  273. 273
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: Yet more, on the signature of malfeasance that is of course being studiously ignored:

    Most of the mainstream polls were utter garbage, off by what I believe to be the largest amounts ever in all of American history. Of course, this thing that surely demoralized the right and helped the left raise funds was just an innocent sampling error rather than a purposeful sampling bias… uh huh. [–> if experts are consistently wrong in ways that serve an agenda, like the Kubernetes at Fair Havens in Ac 27, ask who are their paymasters]

    Then in the weeks leading up to the election, Big Tech and the media had a concentrated censorship effort to stop what was probably the juiciest October Surprise in modern history [–> add in, the FBI sat on the clearly authentic hard drives and readily accessible corroboration right through a directly relevant dubious impeachment, then for the better part of a year thereafter]. But them silencing major newspapers and US Senators was just a mistake in their innocent efforts to “fact check”.

    Then on election day, states like Florida that were obviously swinging hard for Trump with no possible mathematical way for Biden to come back, the news wouldn’t call for Trump. States where it was still clearly up in the air just based on even the most cursory of statistical analysis (Arizona) they called for Biden ASAP. [–> how did they “know” blue trends would dominate but red ones would go away?] But that was just innocent mistakes, and not an attempt to set the narrative of inevitable Biden victory by major media.

    When Trump pulled ahead in the midwestern swing states by what were starting to appear to be insurmountable amounts, they suddenly threw the brakes on the counts. (my favorite part of this was when it looked like Trump was going to win, the Chinese Yaun crashed, which is pretty telling about just how [SNIP] a candidate Joe Biden is) Okay, suddenly stopping all those counts seemed a little weird, but most of America went to bed thinking that this was a close race, with Trump in the lead in the EC.

    Then we woke up in the morning, and everybody saw the 538 graphs showing a massive middle of the night spike for Joe Biden, with almost zilch in corresponding votes for Trump. [–> the “cliffs” in the counts, based on statistically anomalous patterns]

    Here, let’s roll tape from the studiously ignored above on just how much of a red flag such vote jumps are, and this is independent of whenever these ballots were created and harvested:

    I don’t know what the current numbers are now, but as of yesterday morning the Wisconsin Midnight Mystery Dump was something like 98.4% for Joe Biden. That’s better than the bluest of blue cities manage. That’s better than Biden did in DC. I saw one 28k dump yesterday (I want to say it was 538 talking about PA) that was listed as ALL for Biden. That’s basically statistically impossible.

    In a small populace, you can get 100% of the vote. However the larger the sample, the more likely there will be dissenting votes. Even in the bluest of blue areas or reddest of red areas, somebody is going to be a cranky dissident, or an old person is going to fill in the wrong circle. When you get into the hundreds or thousands yet maintain that kind of perfect ratio, basically impossible . . . . these few battleground state blue cities vote ratios don’t match up with other blue cities around America, where it appears Trump’s support among every demographic group other than white males went UP.

    Then people were quick to dismiss these statistically improbable spikes with “of course the mail in voting favors Biden, republicans vote in person.” Yes, but they don’t favor Biden with these kind of ratios anywhere else in America. The ratios are more like 60-40 or 70-30. But 97-3? Oh [SNIP] no. So either Biden is a better campaigner to the inner cities (though he rarely left his basement) than the eloquent messianic figure of Barack Obama, or there’s something fishy going on here . . . .

    the high turn out is the average for the state [Wisconsin], but when you drill down on the source of these statistically improbable blue vote dumps, they’ve got districts with TWO HUNDRED PERCENT TURN OUT. That’s over 200%. There’s 7 over 100%, and a ton of them in the 90s. https://mkecitywire.com/stories/564495243-analysis-seven-milwaukee-wards-report-more-2020-presidential-votes-than-registered-voters-biden-nets-146k-votes-in-city

    And more.

    That is the context where we would be well advised to ponder the red flags, carried forward from above:

    The massive turn out alone is a red flag.

    But as for doing better…

    The late night spikes that were enough to close all the Trump leads are a red flag.

    The statistically impossible breakdown of the ratios of these vote dumps is a red flag.

    The ratios of these dumps being far better than the percentages in the bluest of blue cities, even though the historical data does not match, red flag.

    The ratios of these vote dumps favoring Biden more in these few battlegrounds than the ratio for the rest of the country (even the bluest of the blue) red flag.

    Biden outperforming Obama among these few urban vote dumps, even though Trump picked up points in every demographic group in the rest of the country, red flag.

    The poll observers being removed. Red flag.

    The counters cheering as GOP observers are removed, red flag.

    The fact that the dem observers outnumber the GOP observers 3 to 1, red flag (and basis of the first lawsuit filed)

    The electioneering at the polls (on video), red flag.

    The willful violation of the court order requiring the separation of ballots by type, red flag.

    USPS whistleblower reporting to the Inspector General that today they were ordered to backdate ballots to yesterday, red flag.

    The video of 2 AM deliveries of what appear to be boxes of ballots with no chain of custody or other observers right before the late night miracle spikes, red flag.

    Something is broken, and people are going to know it. This election is discredited, reeking of skunk, and that cannot now be fixed. The same holds for the sing off the same hymn sheet media and big section 230 game tech. Whatever courts and backstop mechanisms do, the next presidency lies under a cloud, with millions of the disaffected now convinced that the SYSTEM is a fraud [including federal investigatory bodies and agencies], after the past four years. With an obvious colour/cultural revolution being pushed.

    Cry all you want about conspiracism,scapegoat Mr Trump all you wish, pretend the fault is on the right, mouth hypocritical words about healing and going forward, it will not change the fact of spreading heartland disaffection for cause. Lucy pulled the football one too many times. And with a radical agenda clearly on the table, that disaffection can easily become a fatal avalanche.

    The circling and lurking geostrategic vultures are salivating. They anticipate a feast, with the stabilising global maritime power convulsed with and effectively paralysed by such spreading disaffection. Which is obviously what they want. Where, marginalisation and subjugation of the people of the American heartland are also obviously on their agenda.

    The storm is here, the storm that was cultivated by those who felt they were entitled to rule, imposing their radical progressivist, Marxism-tainted critical theory post and antichristian agenda. Buckle up for a wild, destructive ride.

    The ride you set up by way of insistent march of folly.

    KF

  274. 274
    kairosfocus says:

    PS: Storm?

    Yes, Ac 27’s ship of state in a microcosm lesson . . . ever wondered why we were not routinely taught Plato’s ship of state parable and Luke’s response by way of powerfully allusive historical microcosm? No prizes for guessing that the following does not fit the agendas:

    [On Luke’s microcosm on the ship of state, Jan 1, 2013:] Entrenched highly ideological orthodoxies — and this includes successful revolutionaries, whether on institutional or community scale — that control resource flows to their benefit and which exert enormous power in institutions and society [I was speaking here about today’s evolutionary materialism dominated science], tend to be very resistant to what is new and unsettling to their comfort zones and interests. Where there has been indoctrination and polarisation, we can see this multiplied by the problem of lack of logical thinking ability and sheer lack of awareness of the true state of the balance of warrant on the merits of facts and evidence.

    The perceived heretic, then is a threat to be fought off, marginalised, discredited and if necessary destroyed. By any and all means, fair or foul.

    (I find the obsession with suggestions of a threat of religious subversion of [scientific, political, education, media and cultural] institutions long since subverted by radical secularists slightly amusing but quite sad in the end. The key threat is unaccountable, out of control power in the hands of elites prone to corruption, not that this once happened with religious elites. In the past 100 years, we saw major secularist movements and neopagan movements of political messianism that did much the same to horrific cost. And the welfare state of the past generation has not been a whole lot better. [Just ask the ghosts of the dozens of millions who have been aborted for convenience.])

    Where is there a solution?

    Frankly, at this stage, I think things are going to have to crash so badly and some elites are going to have to be so discredited by the associated spreading failure, that media propaganda tactics cannot cover it up anymore.

    My model for that comes from one of the red-flag sources that will give some of the objectors [to the design theory movement in science] the vapours.

    Acts 27.

    What, how dare you cite that, that . . . that . . . textbook for theocratic tyranny by the ignorant, insane, stupid and/or wicked followers of that bronze age misogynistic homophobic genocidal racist war god!

    (Do you hear how your agit-prop talking points are enmeshing you in the classic trap of believing your own propaganda?)

    Let’s start with, Paul of Tarsus, c. AD 59, was not in the Bronze Age but was an appellate prisoner in chains on early Imperial era grain ships having a hard time making way from the Levant and Asia Minor to Rome, in the second case ending up in a bay on Crete. What followed is a classic exercise in the follies of manipulated democracy, a case study that will well repay study in our time.

    It was late in the sailing season, and the merchant-owner was worried about his ship in an open bay at Fair Havens, given what winter storms can do.

    The passengers were not too impressed by the nearby settlements as a wintering place. (Sailing stopped in Autumn and opened back up in Spring.)

    The key technico, the kubernete — steersman, more or less like a pilot of an airliner — knew where his bread was buttered, and by whom.

    In the middle was a Centurion of the elite messenger corps.

    We are at ship’s council, and Paul, in chains, is suggesting that the suggestion to venture our with a favourable wind to try to make it to a more commodious port down-coast was excessively risky not only to boat but life.

    The financial and technical talking heads and the appeal of comfort allowed him to be easily marginalised and dismissed.

    Then we saw a gentle south breeze, that would have allowed a reach down the coast. (The technicos probably knew this could be a precursor to a storm, but were not going to cut across the dominant view.)

    They sailed out.

    Bang, an early winter noreaster hit them and sprang the boat’s timbers (why they tried to hold together with ropes [–> called frapping]) so the ship was in a sinking condition from the beginning.

    Worse, they were heading for sandbars off the coast of today’s Libya.

    For two weeks all they could do was use a sea anchor to control drift and try to steer vaguely WNW.

    Forget, eating.

    That is when Paul stood forth as a good man in a storm, and encouraged them with a vision from God. By this time, hope was to be shipwrecked on a coast. (Turned out, [probably] north coast of Malta [possibly, east end].)

    While the ship was at risk of being driven aground and set out four anchors by the stern from midnight on, the sailors tried to abandon the passengers on a ruse, spotted by Paul and/or Luke his travelling companion.

    By this time, the Centurion knew who to take seriously and the ship’s boat was cut away. He then took the decision to save Paul and refused the soldiers’ request to kill the prisoners to prevent escape (for which their lives would have been forfeit).

    So, they made it to a beach on Malta, having lost the ship in any case AND nearly their own lives.

    All of which is full of lessons from history for us in our own decaying democratic polities today, and in the face of polarised voices and all sorts of hidden agenda, half- truth- at- best counsels.

    It is going to take a noreaster to sort out the mess, and there is going to be a lot of serious loss to those beguiled by the bewitching counsels of those inclined to tickle itching ears with what they calculate we want to hear.

    Sorry if that does not sound upbeat for a new year day, but frankly things are beyond that stage with our civilisation.

    Our job now is to be the voice of sense before the storm, and to prepare ourselves to be good men or women in a storm.

    Yes, there is hope, but don’t be surprised to see that by the time this storm runs its course, hope will be for a relatively safe shipwreck at a haven [what “Malta” means] instead of hitting the sandbars of a graveyard of ships.

    But, by our stubborn folly, that’s what we have clearly asked for.

    For shame!

  275. 275

    Something to keep in mind: the media doesn’t determine who won the election. The popular vote doesn’t determine it. State legislatures in current key states can directly control the electors that state sends in to vote. The Electoral College has to vote on Dec. 14, and even that vote can be legally challenged in congress. Furthermore, the President has enormous legal power to affect all of this if he invokes the insurrection act.

  276. 276

    KF,

    It’s has yet to be determined if it is “what we clearly asked for” or if it is something that has been put in place via the manipulations of a relatively few in power over the many, using the people’s innate goodness, tolerance and trust against them – for decades at the least. Allowing something to happen to you because you’re too busy, too naive, and in some cases programmed by years of media is not the same as “clearly asking for it.”

  277. 277
    Sandy says:

    To not allow observers and continue to count votes is a crime. It’s like you go to Airport Customs and just pass the officer telling :”My ID and luggage are ok. Believe me.” and just contiue to walk toward your plane. 🙂 This action is considered suicidal because you could be killed . Democrat party commited suicide and gave to Trump the victory. 🙂

  278. 278
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: PPS to OP, Detroit lawsuit on the electoral roll. KF

  279. 279
    kairosfocus says:

    Sandy, that is a relevant point. On 9/11, I could not believe people were allowed to board planes with razor-sharp “box cutters”. KF

  280. 280
    Sandy says:

    Corrupted Software Used in Michigan County that Stole 6,000 Votes from Trump — Is Also Used in ALL SWING STATES — PA, GA, NV, MI, WI, AZ, MN! 🙂
    No comment.
    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/11/huge-corrupted-software-used-michigan-county-stole-6000-votes-trump-also-used-swing-states-pa-ga-nv-mi-wi-az-mn/

    and ADD this…

    Lawsuit: At Least 21K Dead People on Pennsylvania Voter Rolls.
    We know what kinky preferences have dead people regarding to politics . 🙂
    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/11/05/lawsuit-at-least-21k-dead-people-on-pennsylvania-voter-rolls/

  281. 281
    kairosfocus says:

    WJM,

    you raise a slew of highly relevant, explosive issues. (I recall seeing an article on election failsafe back ups and wired in timeline out there some weeks back but cannot remember title and where.)

    The thing is, we are already seeing the SOCOM insurgency escalator in action, modified per the dirty form McFaul programme of color revolution. Those who pulled this off have already prepared the ground to paint Trump and others who try to correct lawlessness as tyrannical fascists pulling their own coup. They even have tried to paint the Supreme Court into a corner. (BTW, notice how the usual suspects have studiously avoided that even as they resort to projections of kookery, conspiracism, that madman Jones etc?)

    Of course, one of the big agit prop tactics is turnabout, turnspeech projection. That confuses the low information well meaning folks nearly every time.

    The shades of the late, unlamented Dr Goebbels and of Herr Schicklegruber approve. It was their favourite tactic.

    Now, what have we asked for, and where is there fault on our part . . . I include people all over who have swallowed the manipulation for decades.

    First, when the Nazis were on trial at Nuremberg, they tried to pull a cultural relativism, legal positivism stunt. What stopped them cold was pointing out first duties of reason, built in “natural” law and conscience. For example, did you need a legislated rule to know that murder was a crime?

    We elected, supported, swallowed talking points put up by those who tickled our itching ears with what we want to hear, dismissing sound but unpalatable truth and facts for decades. In my region, there are any number of people who look no further than Mrs Harris’ skin colour, glossing over the obvious declining health of the man at the top of a ticket. And that’s for starters, no more than mentioning the central corrupting blood guilt evil of our time: the abortion holocaust. From observation of my homeland, not even dirty money is as corrupting as widespread involvement in blood guilt. You cannot get to 63+ million abortions without pervasive blood guilt.

    Let me modify, this is a fortiori on words literally carved in stone at the Lincoln memorial:

    The Almighty has His own purposes. “Woe unto the world because of offenses for it must needs be that offenses come but woe to that man by whom the offense cometh.” If we shall suppose that [the] American [abortion holocaust] is one of those offenses which in the providence of God must needs come but which having continued through His appointed time He now wills to remove and that He gives to both [coasts and hinterlands] this terrible war as the woe due to those by whom the offense came shall we discern therein any departure from those divine attributes which the believers in a living God always ascribe to Him. Fondly do we hope ~ fervently do we pray ~ that this mighty scourge of war may speedily pass away. Yet, if God wills that it continue until all the wealth piled by the [destruction of 63 million innocents in the womb] shall be sunk and until every drop of blood drawn with the [abortionist’s scalpel or vacuum device etc] shall be paid by another drawn with the sword as was said three thousand years ago so still it must be said ‘the judgments of the Lord are true and righteous altogether.’

    Then, for decades, we have tolerated deceitful pols, an increasingly corrupt media and an approach to education that robs us of truth. Especially in the early years, there were many who knew better and warned us. Did we listen and rally? At best, for a time, allowing the creeping gangrene to spread inch by inch. Now, the crisis is existential.

    How many bank managers, accountants, MBAs and auditors exist in the USA? Such — and I are one in cat 2 — have formal knowledge of audit and requisites of sound, fraud resistant systems. Lawyers, too . . . and that is a big slice of pols right there. Historians and classical scholars abound. There is no question that there is widespread understanding of what is needed to know that something is wrong with the electoral systems, and there was every opportunity to fix it. Even proper voter identification became embroiled in toxic politics. Let’s just say I chatted with a Nigerian friend a few days back and we were both shaking our heads.

    The fraud-inviting electoral system is there because it suits the power brokers, their media talking heads and activists. Guilty as charged. This is one for RICO.

    But, too, hoi polloi are not guiltless. The people should have acted long since, the price to be paid now will by any reckoning be excessive and will hurt people far beyond US shores. The geostrategic vultures are circling and some are closer, lurking in shadows.

    Why is it that Plato’s parable of the ship of state is not taught — soundly and honestly taught with the failure of Athens — to every civics class, every history or government as key backdrop? Why is not every pulpit ablaze with Ac 27?

    It is time to face our guilt, and to repent towards sound reformation.

    The ride ahead is going to be wild and destructive, we are inescapably in the storm.

    KF

  282. 282
    kairosfocus says:

    Sandy, did you notice that ALL or essentially all the anomalies and errors point one way and pop up in the predictable key swing states per last election? Once, accident. Twice, coincidence. Three times, enemy action. KF

  283. 283
  284. 284
    kairosfocus says:

    PS: Troubling reading on election fraud and media side stepping, a list of fraud cases, a discussion of willful undermining of integrity of the election system. Then, there are strange anomalies in electronic processing– ate YT link here it is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ficae6x1Q5A&feature=youtu.be&t=1982 — raising questions on software. There’s something rotten . . .

  285. 285
    daveS says:

    I think this thread demonstrates how social media and the internet generally allows people to construct and maintain their own world of “alternate facts” in real time. IIRC, it took quite a while for the 9/11 “truth” movement to materialize. We had internet forums and the like back then, but not really any way for the average person to connect to millions easily.

    Now we have Facebook, Twitter and sophisticated “influencers” streaming in hi-definition from almost anywhere using their phones. We have easy access to so much contradictory information, we can to an extent choose which world we live in (I mean that metaphorically, not literally—the world is as it is, regardless of what I believe).

  286. 286
    Sandy says:

    @Kairosfocus
    Let’s see what happens next but no matter what happens there is one huge advantage: people are more awake than ever.

    Trump predicted months ago what happens now. Trump was right. Again.

  287. 287

    KF,

    What does it mean to say we the public have willfully put up with this? What are we supposed to do with a corrupt power structure that seeps down even to the local areas? Armed insurrection? I’m not saying that’s not an option, but I think reasonable people keep that in the “last resort” category.

    Do you have any idea to what extent that corruption exists? I live near a city of about 100,000 people and the “deep state” corruption there is overwhelming and blatant. I’ve personally been taken by police and thrown in jail without a warrant or signed complaint and with no police report, apparently for writing an opinion piece in a local paper that was critical of this behavior. Family members have been harassed and jailed without cause or evidence by the legal system.

    How do you propose we organize in this kind of system where they can track every move and have intimate access to your daily life?

    Until it comes down to it. we do the best we can to promote and vote for good candidates, but in a totally corrupted system that is lethal when it needs to be to threats against it, exactly what do you expect the average citizen here to do until it gets to the critical point where we have no option other than to grab our weapons?

  288. 288
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, really. FACT: there were cliffs in vote counts, well beyond any plausible chance fluctuation, a signature event. FACT: for decades, the US electoral system has been patently substandard in a context where a modern presidential election was decided by fraud in 1960. FACT: I compared something so common as banking cash and account management, noting the trillion dollar value at stake in elections, noting too that auditors know better (I do hold an MBA and we have to have nodding acquaintance with such realities as book keeping, accounting and audits , , , go to gaol stuff). FACT: an auditor duly commented in public, he is a well known sci fi-fantasy writer. FACT: there is a troubling pattern of anomalies in key states that have consistently acted to reverse election night count leads. FACT: lawsuits have begun. You get to have your own opinion but you don’t get to ignore material facts. And you full well know enough math to understand the urn and consecutive coin flips model and relevance to a design inference on the vote count cliffs. KF

  289. 289
    kairosfocus says:

    WJM, I literally have a case of judicial murder of a national hero of my homeland (he was a relative) written into my name, so possibilities for corruption are that close to my sense of identity. The US has had sufficient access to information that even ordinary people are responsible to know, start with the abortion holocaust that is at the root of all of this. I simply could never vote for a candidate or party of holocaust, and it is manifest that we know that to shed innocent blood is a grave wrong, where lies about what is in the womb are obvious once we see images: I recall a child walking in on mom preparing a slide and saying, who broke the BABY. Holocaust is unacceptable evil, period. No excuses or distractions. A party of holocaust should receive as near to zero votes as makes no difference, period. Of course, the lying media routinely censor out such facts issues, images. Ah yes, boycott such media and their advertisers. If necessary, use church halls for the public meetings on the annual right to life march, and use tracts and handbills. The video/movie by Schaeffer and Koop would have been a good start-point for sobering discussion. Wear tee-shirts with pictures of the unborn child, asking pointed questions — can you imagine a national tee shirt day, and what would be exposed if police were co-opted to stop printing, distribution and display? That itself would have been decisive if someone were that foolish. Later, impeach the judges who usurped power to impose holocaust. Then, defund universities and schools that taught to promote such a crime. Remember, mass shedding of innocent blood. That would have stopped this cold in the 1970’s. Or any decade since. What happened was, allowing the gangrene to spread. On elections, integrate that into the issue; the bank cash and account handling yardstick should be more than enough to make the point plain. While we are at it, lawyers should have exposed the dangers of positivism many decades ago too. There is more but this is a start. Now, you see the alternative playing out, civil war. KF

  290. 290
    daveS says:

    KF,

    Just going to comment on this:

    And you full well know enough math to understand the urn and consecutive coin flips model and relevance to a design inference on the vote count cliffs.

    Yes, I know very little about probability and stats, but I’m familiar with scenarios involving coin flips and drawing balls from urns. If there was a run of ~100,000 consecutive Biden votes, we can conclude it did not occur by chance, assuming random draws from a large urn/collection and any remotely realistic mix of Trump-Biden ballots.

    So, you’ve successfully rejected a null hypothesis which no one thinks is plausible in the first place.

  291. 291
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, the problem is, runs of votes in the overnight, lead changing ballot dumps did happen, in the 10k+ class, and things so close as to make no difference in the 100k class. That is what got my attention. Unobservable, on chance, but very plausible on design. KF

  292. 292
    daveS says:

    KF,

    A single run of 10,000 consecutive Biden ballots would still be fantastically improbable, assuming random draws.

    Do we have records of 10,000 consecutive ballots being taken out of a box and opened, all found to be for Biden? As far as I know, we just have numbers appearing on a website.

  293. 293
    bornagain77 says:

    KF:

    BREAKING: (GOP led) Michigan Legislature to Convene Joint Oversight Hearing Saturday After ‘Glitches’ Give 6,000 Trump Votes to Biden
    BY BRYAN PRESTON NOV 06, 2020
    https://pjmedia.com/election/bryan-preston/2020/11/06/breaking-michigan-legislature-to-convene-special-joint-oversight-hearing-saturday-after-glitches-blow-one-election-give-6000-trump-votes-to-biden-n1131066

    And thanks for this link kf:

    Before your very own eyes at 36:00 minute mark, Computer generated vote switching from republican to democrat caught in real time on national TV:

    – Interview with Source on Electronic Vote Fraud
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ficae6x1Q5A&feature=youtu.be&t=1982

  294. 294
    AndyClue says:

    The cost of spreading falsehoods:
    https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-biden-election-results-11-07-20/h_00527e193eb89c784d82c8ab86de8dac
    ‘Election worker in hiding after threats related to video of him crumpling piece of paper, official says’
    ‘“He is currently in hiding because he’s had threats. He’s had to shut down all of his social media, and … all of his personal information was released,” Barron said. “Personally, I think it’s shameful.’

  295. 295
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, it looks like 28k on a run and it looks like just shy of 100% on 100k class. KF

  296. 296
    kairosfocus says:

    BA77, when there is one flag, that is already an index of inadequate controls, pointing to needed much tighter scrutiny. That scrutiny has to extend to every place similar machines and/or software are in use. This of course immediately implicates the key states. The audit issues are obvious. KF

    PS: That then raises the point, what are the odds that a random glitch fits in so neatly with other anomalies, at the same general time?

  297. 297
    Sandy says:

    Bornagain 77
    Before your very own eyes at 36:00 minute mark, Computer generated vote switching from republican to democrat caught in real time on national TV:

    – Interview with Source on Electronic Vote Fraud
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ficae6x1Q5A&feature=youtu.be&t=1982

    Wow! This is rich , cnn provide the evidences for election fraud . 🙂

  298. 298
    bornagain77 says:

    Sandy,
    What is also ‘rich’ is that Democrats, who spent millions of dollars on the fake Russian collusion narrative to try to impeach President Trump, a narrative that they knew was false all along, now pretend as if there is no reason whatsoever to be concerned with these systematic voting irregularities that favor democrats.

    That Darwinists on UD, who themselves have a long history of being VERY dishonest towards the evidence for ID, would join in the chorus of ‘nothing to see here’, makes it all the richer:

    Nothing to see here
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSjK2Oqrgic

  299. 299

    KF,
    Let me put some cards on the table here, which will no doubt be ridiculed by some here but maybe a handful of us can engage in proper discussion.

    What we are faced with is global, systemic, deep evil to a degree that most of the population cannot imagine, much less comprehend. The roots this go back hundreds of years, but have been more meticulously and carefully brought into full planning for the better part of this century.

    These people assassinate presidents, world leaders, executives, judges, politicians and cause the deaths of millions without hesitation or conscience. They have been deliberately poisoning our bodies and minds with chemicals and deliberate, highly effective persuasion techniques on a decades-long schedule. They have kept the world in an ongoing state of profitable wars – profitable both in treasure and in control via fear. They have infiltrators and agents everywhere. They do not hesitate to murder any number of people to keep their plan going forward. They engage in mass brainwashing techniques around the world. They employ widespread honey-pot blackmail techniques and vet everyone looking to gain entry into rooms where the control levers are.

    Untrained people, generally speaking, do have the faculties, expertise nor power necessary to thwart this; they can’t even comprehend what is going on and shut down in denial when faced with evidence. What we have proven ready, willing and able to do is recognize a threat to that system and support it as much as we can, even to the point of risking our lives to do so.

    And that’s what we did with Trump.

    Do you think Trump just luckily blundered through the controls that these people have in place to keep unwanted people out? That didn’t happen, KF. Trump had to have very powerful, trained and organized military-level help or he’d have been killed long before he could truly threaten their power. Do you think there wasn’t sufficient voter fraud mechanisms in place in 2016 to prevent him from winning? Of course there were. How do you think he won?

    IMO, your judgement on the people can only be levied by a partial understanding of what has happened. How were we to know that from the moment we started getting TV broadcasts into our home, we were being fed lies? That newspapers have always been, by and large, propaganda? That polls are for manipulating the public, not informing them? How were we supposed to vet whom we could trust?

    We’re supposed to do all that and put in the increasingly long workdays (another planned feature of modern life)? “The people” might have some liability, but to say “we got what we asked for,” is, IMO, highly unjust.

  300. 300
    daveS says:

    KF,

    DS, it looks like 28k on a run and it looks like just shy of 100% on 100k class. KF

    If you have evidence for this that would stand up in court, please do present it!

  301. 301
    Sandy says:

    Two companies dominate the voting machine market ES&S and Dominion.
    Dominion have the “glitch” problem in favor of democrats? Let’s have a guess who represents Dominion.
    Yep, you guessed right :a democrat : Pelosi’s ex-chief of staff . Of course it’s just a coincidence. 🙂
    https://about.bgov.com/news/voting-machine-firms-add-lobbyists-amid-election-hacker-concerns/

  302. 302
    daveS says:

    The scene outside the White House this morning. 🙂

  303. 303
    kairosfocus says:

    BA77, it’s a design inference on signs. We should not be surprised that people of the ilk that made such heavy weather over Dembski’s Caputo example . . . and recall that was vast excess of D’s in a sweet spot location on the ballot (in a context of a claimed fair — but non transparent — coin toss selection) . . . will struggle with odd hours ballot dumps that are overwhelmingly one sided outside of a reasonable range for a two-party system. KF

    PS: Recall, I suggest that in a viable two-party system we will tend to see vote ratios running like 50:50 to maybe 70:30, where recall, 55:45 is called a landslide for cause. When we see ratios running more like 90:10 or approaching 100% for large numbers of alleged votes that becomes suspicious. When, in addition we see runs ranging to 1,000 or 10,000 or more votes on one side, that is essentially unobservable as a chance outcome. We are most credibly seeing signatures of machine politics essentially driven by fear and/or outright vote buying. That such are in a wider “run” of multiple developments pushing votes to one side consistently and in strategically decisive states says, this is by pretty dirty design. And yes, that provides good empirical warrant to moral certainty, especially when multiplied by multiple decade resistance to obviously needed electoral reforms that can readily be bench marked against how banks handle cash, accounts, records and chain of custody.

  304. 304
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, I was just shown a shared vid of an anti-Trump parade somewhere in the US. An effigy of the man was made and put on a float, with his buttocks exposed. People were running up to kick as it went alont, and were being cheered along. Now, ponder if a similar thing were done about say Mr Obama. Does that two minute hate mentality tell you something? KF

  305. 305
    Mac McTavish says:

    KF, everybody knew the mail-in ballots would heavily favor Biden. The Biden campaign urged their supporters to vote by mail due to COVID. And the Trump campaign strongly urged his supporters to vote in person. This alone would skew the mail in ballots in Biden’s favor. Add to this the fact that the vast majority of mail-In ballots come from large urban areas, which tend to lean heavily Democrat, and we would predict that the mail-in ballots would strongly favor Biden.

    Ballots are counted, and the counters are observed. Questionable ballots are set aside and dealt with at the end. Ballots are checked against the voter list and checks are in place to ensure that there are no duplicate ballots.

    All we have seen are accusations of things that could lead to voter fraud, but zero hard evidence that it has occurred. The irregularities will be investigated, as they are after every election, and corrections made if necessary.

    Frankly, I am disappointed at UD becoming the home for crazy conspiracy theories.

  306. 306
    daveS says:

    KF,

    I’ve seen plenty of attacks on Obama that are at least that bad. I suspect you have as well.

    Where is the evidence for that 28,000 ballot run? Are Trump’s lawyers aware of it?

  307. 307
    kairosfocus says:

    WJM, you raise some big issues, that could easily be converted into say a projection of antisemitism. I have no doubt that you do not mean that, instead you are describing the extreme machiavellian nature of big boys clubs (with a few girls admitted since the likes of Elizabeth I of England). it is very hard indeed to protect the people from the rise and domination of lawless oligarchic elites, of one stripe or another; where as “lawless” implies they are by definition utterly corrupt and perverse, predatory and piratical, demonic in one word. That is the sort of government that has been the sorry lot of humanity most of the time since “forever.” hence, the point that history is the record of crimes [and follies] that we too often refuse to learn from. It is the chain of revolutions set off in association with the rise of printing, creation of public opinion, the associated reformation etc that from 1688 to 1787 effected a breakthrough, the breakthrough that is being deliberately destroyed by aspirants to being the latest form of lawless oligarchs. That is what is going on as we speak, and yes the common man or woman has been robbed of the knowledge to understand this. That is why we have a fight for our civilisation on our hands. A fight that will be more or less globally decided in the ongoing battle for America over the next 14 months. That acknowledged, there were turning points where there was enough on the table that a stance should have been made 40 – 50 years ago, or at latest in the Reagan era. I guess the external threat so dominated that the internal one was neglected. Now, the time has come to pay the bill; I only hope it is not going to have too much of a required payment in blood. KF

  308. 308
    kairosfocus says:

    MMT, you have been found out long since to be a troll, your playing at concern troll now does not fool anyone. KF

  309. 309
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, I have no doubt that the lawyers duly monitored and we will see. The runs in question were manifested in the cliffs in ballot counts that suddenly erased leads in key states but were anomalous in many ways leading to the flags above. Such, in turn, point to the very substandard electoral procedures that come out by sharp contrast with how banks manage cash and accounts etc, a logical benchmark. Remember, we are looking at a cumulative issue and the pattern of red flags is far stronger than any individual sign. Recall, yarns are twisted from short thin fibres, then counter twisted into strands that then are counter-counter twisted into long strong ropes. KF

  310. 310
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: I am seeing an AP announcement:

    https://apnews.com/article/Biden-Trump-US-election-2020-results-fd58df73aa677acb74fce2a69adb71f9

    >>Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided US
    By JONATHAN LEMIRE and ZEKE MILLER20 minutes ago

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrat Joe Biden defeated President Donald Trump to become the 46th president of the United States on Saturday, positioning himself to lead a nation gripped by historic pandemic and a confluence of economic and social turmoil.

    His victory came after more than three days of uncertainty as election officials sorted through a surge of mail-in votes that delayed the processing of some ballots. Biden crossed 270 Electoral College votes with a win in Pennsylvania . . . >>

    This is of course grossly misleading on several levels. The 46th President will become President on or about Jan 21, 2021, when sworn in. Until that date, on or about Dec 14, the Electoral College will select the President-Elect.

    In the meanwhile, this is by no means a normal election cycle, and there is a serious issue on the table regarding “mail-in votes” and other anomaly-laden circumstances. To suggest otherwise is irresponsible, but of course it is unlikely that AP will be called on this. (Not to mention, doubtless, many other media houses.)

    Under more normal circumstances imprecisions in speech and news on such are tolerable. But that is exactly the point, these are not ordinary circumstances.

    KF

  311. 311
    daveS says:

    I wonder what Trump will do when it becomes clear that he’s not going to be able to turn it around. I can’t imagine him in the role of a lame duck president. Maybe he’ll resign early and let Pence take this thing home?

  312. 312

    “Dewey Defeats Truman”

  313. 313
    Viola Lee says:

    I don’t think the legal challenges that Trump brings will have any substantial evidence, will fail, and Biden will become president. It will be interesting to see if this proves correct.

  314. 314
    Mac McTavish says:

    KF

    MMT, you have been found out long since to be a troll, your playing at concern troll now does not fool anyone. KF

    Your deflection rather than addressing my comment is duly noted.

  315. 315
    orthomyxo says:

    The runs in question were manifested in the cliffs in ballot counts that suddenly erased leads in key states but were anomalous in many ways

    I don’t live in the US anymore, but if you think folks in Atlanta and Philly disliking Trump is anomalous then I think you have some research to do…

  316. 316
    Sandy says:

    Democrats shot themselves in the foot not allowing republican observers. 🙂 Democrats wanted to win so much they ignored the law. The law is with Trump.
    Liberal heads will implode .

  317. 317
    kairosfocus says:

    MMT, I will get back to whatever substance there is in due time, the point will remain the same. KF

  318. 318
    Seversky says:

    William J Murray/312

    “Dewey Defeats Truman”

    I am reminded for some reason of Oliver Cromwell’s speech to the House of Commons on the Dissolution of the so-called Long Parliament in 1653

    It is high time for me to put an end to your sitting in this place,

    which you have dishonored by your contempt of all virtue, and defiled by your practice of every vice.

    Ye are a factious crew, and enemies to all good government.

    Ye are a pack of mercenary wretches, and would like Esau sell your country for a mess of pottage, and like Judas betray your God for a few pieces of money.

    Is there a single virtue now remaining amongst you? Is there one vice you do not possess?

    Ye have no more religion than my horse. Gold is your God. Which of you have not bartered your conscience for bribes? Is there a man amongst you that has the least care for the good of the Commonwealth?

    Ye sordid prostitutes have you not defiled this sacred place, and turned the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral principles and wicked practices?

    Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation. You were deputed here by the people to get grievances redressed, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.

    Your country therefore calls upon me to cleanse this Augean stable, by putting a final period to your iniquitous proceedings in this House; and which by God’s help, and the strength he has given me, I am now come to do.

    I command ye therefore, upon the peril of your lives, to depart immediately out of this place.

    Go, get you out! Make haste! Ye venal slaves be gone! So! Take away that shining bauble there, and lock up the doors.

    In the name of God, go!

  319. 319
    Mac McTavish says:

    Trump’s tactic, and apparently that of some here, is to spew one unsubstantiated conspiracy theory after the other to explain why the mail-in ballots were largely in Biden’s favor. Yet they ignore the obvious.

    1) Biden strongly encouraged his supporters to use the mail-in ballot system due to the pandemic.

    2) Trump strongly disparaged the mail-in ballot system and encouraged in person voting.

    3) The divide between democrat and Republican is largely an urban-rural divide.

    4) the majority of mail-in ballots came from urban residents.

    Conclusion: we would expect mail-in ballots to strongly favor Biden.

    I have been watching some of the celebrations after it was announced that Biden was the President Elect. What struck me most, other than the peacefulness, is that mask wearing is almost universal. Which contrasts greatly with the Trump rallies.

  320. 320
    Viola Lee says:

    Well, Seversky, that show that there are perennial political issues and events, and that one would need to up their rhetoric level to match that! 🙂

  321. 321
    kairosfocus says:

    U/D, as FYI: TRUMP’S MESSAGE

    >>We all know why Joe Biden is rushing to falsely pose as the winner, and why his media allies are trying so hard to help him: they don’t want the truth to be exposed. The simple fact is this election is far from over. Joe Biden has not been certified as the winner of any states, let alone any of the highly contested states headed for mandatory recounts, or states where our campaign has valid and legitimate legal challenges that could determine the ultimate victor. In Pennsylvania, for example, our legal observers were not permitted meaningful access to watch the counting process. Legal votes decide who is president, not the news media.

    Beginning Monday, our campaign will start prosecuting our case in court to ensure election laws are fully upheld and the rightful winner is seated. The American People are entitled to an honest election: that means counting all legal ballots, and not counting any illegal ballots. This is the only way to ensure the public has full confidence in our election. It remains shocking that the Biden campaign refuses to agree with this basic principle and wants ballots counted even if they are fraudulent, manufactured, or cast by ineligible or deceased voters. Only a party engaged in wrongdoing would unlawfully keep observers out of the count room – and then fight in court to block their access.

    So what is Biden hiding? I will not rest until the American People have the honest vote count they deserve and that Democracy demands. – President Donald J. Trump>>

    Lawfare phase.

    KF

  322. 322
    kairosfocus says:

    MMT, how you love to project dismissive accusations, such as conspiracy theory. I challenge you to rebut, point by point, the concerns raised by the auditor. KF

  323. 323
    kairosfocus says:

    U/D: Supreme Court instructs, preparatory to legal actions:

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/110620zr_g31i.pdf

    >>All county boards of election are hereby ordered, pending further order
    of the Court, to comply with the following guidance provided by the Secretary
    of the Commonwealth on October 28 and November 1, namely, (1) that all
    ballots received by mail after 8:00 p.m. on November 3 be segregated and
    kept “in a secure, safe and sealed container separate from other voted
    ballots,” and (2) that all such ballots, if counted, be counted separately. Pa.
    Dep’t of State, Pennsylvania Guidance for Mail-in and Absentee Bal
    lots Received From the United States Postal Service After 8:00 p.m. on Tuesday,
    November 3, 2020 (Oct. 28, 2020); Pa. Dep’t of State, Canvassing Segregated
    Mail-in and Civilian Absentee Ballots Received by Mail After 8:00 p.m. on
    Tuesday, November 3, 2020 and Before 5:00 p.m. on Friday, November 6, 2020
    (Nov. 1, 2020). Until today, this Court was not informed that the guidance
    issued on October 28, which had an important bearing on the question
    whether to order special treatment of the ballots in question,
    had been modified. The application received today also informs the Court that neither
    the applicant nor the Secretary has been able to verify that all boards are
    complying with the Secretary’s guidance, which, it is alleged, is not legally
    binding on them.
    I am immediately referring this application to the Conference and
    direct that any response be filed as soon as possible but in any event no later
    than 2 p.m. tomorrow, November 7, 2020.
    /s/ Samuel A. Alito, Jr. >>

    Uh oh, that sounds very serious.

    KF

  324. 324
    Sebestyen says:

    KF, you don’t know the [SNIP] what you’re talking about. This is neither preparatory to legal actions, nor is it in any way serious.

    The orange [SNIP] got the boot, deal with it and stop making uncommondescent more of an embarrassment as you and your fellow trumpsters already did.

  325. 325
    daveS says:

    The Lincoln Project tweets:

    Abe’s sources inside @realdonaldtrump’s White House hear that he, Cabinet members and @teamtrump are going to pressure Electors to switch their votes from @joebiden.

    Not on our watch. [Pirate Flag Emoji]

  326. 326
    kairosfocus says:

    Seb, FYI disobedience to a court order is serious and kindly keep a civil tongue in your head. I would tell you my actual view of Mr Trump, but you are obviously in closed hostile mind territory. Start rethinking from how for decades the US election system would fail a benchmark with a bank’s handling of cash and accounts. As recently as 1960 that decided an election and in 2000 it came close to chaos. Ponder why that is so despite decades of calls to fix it. KF

  327. 327
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, hardly likely to be accurate. The issue on the table is clearly legal actions. KF

  328. 328
    Sandy says:

    Mac McTavish
    Conclusion: we would expect mail-in ballots to strongly favor Biden.

    You are right .But… It’s irelevant what you would expect it’s important what you can prove. Democrats can’t prove those ballots are legal because they needed republican observers to confirm that but strangely democrats didn’t want that 🙂 🙂 🙂 so they charitable handed out victory to Trump.

  329. 329
    bornagain77 says:

    Of related interest to the questionable Dominion software in Mich. (and all the other key battleground states),,

    It appears that a legislative mandated audit in MIch. is in the works.

    The Michigan Legislature on Saturday issued a subpoena to state election officials as Republican lawmakers launched an investigation of what they say are possible election irregularities in Michigan.
    The rare Saturday state legislative hearing, a joint hearing of the House and Senate Oversight committees, took place at about the same time that major networks and other news organizations were declaring Democrat Joe Biden the election victor over Republican President Donald Trump,,,,
    https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/07/gop-state-lawmakers-issue-subpoena-michigan-election-records/6203094002/

    Maybe it is nothing. But then again, maybe it is the thread that, via pulling on it, eventually unravels the the whole thing.

    After all, as KF has pointed out, the math itself is certainly enough to raise eyebrows that there was something seriously amiss in the voting tabulation,

  330. 330
    Sebestyen says:

    KF, again, you have no idea what you’re talking about. If you had read further about that court order, you’d know that it is just a result of the ongoing dispute about the acceptance of late-arriving ballots and the GOP’s recent request to stop counting those votes (which the court dismissed).

    The order is just to leave the possibility open for the justices to exclude the late-arriving ballots in a subsequent ruling, and since those ballots have already been separated anyway, there’s no disobedience to a court order whatsoever.

    Finally, considering that the number of those ballots is expected to be between 3k to 4k, all that fuzz is about nothing with Biden leading by almost 40k and 150k votes still left to count.

  331. 331
    daveS says:

    Twitter meltdown in progress.

  332. 332
    Mac McTavish says:

    Sandy

    Democrats can’t prove those ballots are legal…

    The burden of proof isn’t on them. It is on those accusing fraud.

    …because they needed republican observers to confirm that…

    And the observers were there. This has already been attested to in court.

    But this is what I have been talking about. There have been plenty of accusations and conspiracy theories presented. And, for some reason, the accusers seem to think the burden of proof is on the election officials to prove that the accusations are false. That is not how it works. You can’t conclude any wrongdoing until conclusive evidence is presented.

    A corrected computer glitch isn’t evidence of fraud. Keeping observers further away than they want is not evidence of fraud. Mail-in ballots favouring one candidate over another isn’t evidence of fraud. The fact that army ballots hadn’t yet been counted isn’t evidence of fraud.

  333. 333
    mike1962 says:

    One upside to a Biden presidency: it will be hilarious to watch him try to do the job. 😀 😀 😀

  334. 334
    rhampton7 says:

    Joe Biden can win only with “illegal votes.”

    This is a testable claim. Trump is saying that Biden can win the election only if mail-in ballots that arrived after Election Day, which he deems “illegal,” are counted. Yet in Pennsylvania, whose 20 electoral votes would clinch Biden’s victory, the former vice president has pulled ahead of Trump even without including late-arriving ballots. “The votes being counted in Pennsylvania do not include any mail ballots arriving after Nov. 3,” New York Times reporter Nick Corasaniti notes. “Those are being kept segregated. This count is for votes in by Election Day.”

    Election officials in states run by Democrats are manufacturing votes for Biden.

    Trump’s only evidence of the massive, orchestrated fraud he describes is that election results shifted as more votes were counted. But that is a common election phenomenon, and this year it has been magnified by Trump’s attacks on voting by mail, which fostered a Democratic tilt in those late-counted ballots.

    Contradicting his thesis that Democrats are manufacturing mail-in ballots to assure Biden’s victory, Trump complained about vote counting in Georgia, which has a Republican governor and secretary of state. “In Georgia, I won by a lot, a lot, with a lead…getting close to 300,000 votes on Election Night,” he said. “And by the way, [it] got whittled down, and now it’s getting to…a point where I’ll go from winning by a lot to perhaps being even down a little bit.”

    Exactly who is conspiring against Trump in Georgia? “The election apparatus in Georgia is run by Democrats,” he said. That will be news to Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.

    Pollsters deliberately overestimated support for Biden.

    Here Trump is making two contradictory claims. The pollsters “thought there was going to be a big blue wave,” and they were mistaken. At the same time, they were wrong on purpose, because they wanted to suppress Republican turnout.

    Did polls suggesting a Biden victory demoralize Republicans, as the president assumes? It seems at least as plausible that such polls would motivate Trump’s supporters to vote. If pollsters really were determined to defeat Trump, shouldn’t they have predicted a landslide for him, which would have suggested to his supporters that they needn’t bother voting?

    Even assuming that pollsters were willing to sacrifice their reputations in order to get Biden elected, and that they all secretly agreed to do so, Trump suggested that strategy was a spectacular failure. “We grew our party by 4 million voters,” he said, and had “the greatest turnout in Republican Party history….We won by historic numbers.” Yet Trump also said pollsters are “not stupid people,” an assessment that seems to be at odds with his claim that they ruined their reputations for nothing.

    Is anyone buying this? The headline of the New York Post story about Trump’s comments—”Downcast Trump makes baseless election fraud claims in White House address”—suggests that his fact-free conspiracy theories have limited appeal. They certainly will not impress the courts as they consider the Republicans’ post-election lawsuits. Maybe Trump is feeding anger and resentment among his most credulous supporters, but to what end? So he can keep his base energized in anticipation of a comeback in 2024, when he will be as old as the opponent he portrayed as dangerously past his prime?

    https://reason.com/2020/11/06/trumps-desperate-conspiracy-theories-wont-save-his-presidency-but-they-might-save-his-ego/

  335. 335
    rhampton7 says:

    On this weekend’s Ruminant (podcast), Jonah Goldberg asks why we have to make American politics even more difficult than they already are. Why is it that, in an election that reveals Americans’ contested preferences so obviously, that we have to continue to turn up the heat by piling on additional conspiracy theories about the rigging of the election? Maybe, as Jonah thinks, this simply reveals a series of “deeply unpatriotic commitments” among our political and commentariat classes.

    https://ricochet.com/podcast/remnant-jonah-goldberg/conspiracies-all-the-way-down/

  336. 336
    Sandy says:

    1.Democrats incriminated themselves by banning the observers. No necessary other evidences for audit.
    2.A detected computer glitch for democrats is not evidence of fraud but also is not evidence that no more glitches exist. Could be more in favor of Trump therefore must be made an audit and all americans will trust election system. 🙂
    3. Democrats refusing an audit would be a second self-incrimination in a row and disqualification of Alz Heimer Joe .

  337. 337
    bornagain77 says:

    You just can’t make this stuff up,,,, George Soros name is also mentioned in the whole Dominion software mess:

    Officials raised concerns for years about security of U.S. voting machines, software systems
    By Bethany Blankley | The Center Square Nov 7, 2020
    Excerpt: Dominion “got into trouble” with several subsidiaries it used over alleged cases of fraud. One subsidiary is Smartmatic, a company “that has played a significant role in the U.S. market over the last decade,” according to a report published by UK-based AccessWire.
    Smartmatic’s chairman is a member of the British House of Lords, Mark Malloch Brown, a former vice-chairman of George Soros’ Investment Funds, former vice-president at the World Bank, lead international partner at Sawyer Miller, a political consulting firm, and former vice-chair of the World Economic Forum who “remains deeply involved in international affairs.” The company’s reported globalist ties have caused members of the media and government officials to raise questions about its involvement in the U.S. electoral process.,,,
    After Jan. 14, Microsoft stopped providing technical support and producing “patches” to fix software vulnerabilities, making Windows 7 easy to hack unless U.S. jurisdictions paid a fee to receive security updates through 2023, the AP found.
    According to its assessment, multiple states were affected by the end of Windows 7 support, including Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, North Carolina, many counties in Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
    https://www.kpcnews.com/news/national/article_54f8e485-d486-518c-9ec7-60aad41ba2d4.html

    So, in all, we now have George Soros, Diane Feinstein, and Nancy Pelosi all having close ties to the software in question,

    Per Wayne Baird on Facebook
    “The software is from Avid Technologies Inc. and Richard C. Blum is the owner.. And is Dianne Feinstein’s Husband..”,,, “Dominion Smartmantics board member Mark Malloch-Brown (direct ties to Soros through Open Society); and company hired lobbyists who assigned former Nancy Pelosi chief of staff to account (Nadeam Elshami). This rabbit hole is deep and dark!”

    Shoot, the only way it could get any more suspicious for the software in question, than it already is, is if Adam Schiff’s and Chuck Schumer’s names were to somehow pop up along the way.

  338. 338
    rhampton7 says:

    Joe Biden will be the next President of the United States. Contrary to some highly irresponsible claims, Biden will not win by theft but by people actually voting for him. It frustrates me to see my own party demanding lawfully cast ballots not be counted.

    I am opposed to counting ballots that show up after Election Day. I think ballots need to be in by Election Day. Those that arrive by Election Day need to be counted, and those votes will hand Biden the presidency. There are issues for which the GOP should force accountability in the vote, including the Pennsylvania Supreme Court wanting to accept all ballots, including those that show up after Election Day. But the GOP should not be so willfully trying to claim a stolen election. Democrats are not out manufacturing tens of thousands of votes, and Republicans who think that need psychotherapy.

    Hanging on to that grievance and playing the victim also will cause the Republicans to lose sight of just how well they did. President Donald Trump may have lost, but Republicans held the United States Senate, added seats to the House of Representatives, gained a state legislative chamber while holding all their others and picked up a gubernatorial seat. Republicans will control redistricting for congressional and state legislative races in most states for the next decade, despite losing the White House. That is a very good thing.

    That success also is more evidence the election was not stolen. Stealing the presidency and not the Senate so the Republicans can block the President’s agenda and deny him his judicial picks really would be a waste of time. Stealing the presidency while ensuring the GOP can control the majority of redistricting for the next decade would be silly.

    https://www.creators.com/read/erick-erickson

  339. 339
    bornagain77 says:

    RH7 do luv himself a lot of left wing spin.

  340. 340
    Seversky says:

    Bornagain77/337

    You just can’t make this stuff up

    Sure you can – and do.

    George Soros name is also mentioned in the whole Dominion software mess:

    […]

    So, in all, we now have George Soros, Diane Feinstein, and Nancy Pelosi all having close ties to the software in question,

    … and all of the above are secretly Reptilian shapeshifters or Annunaki as are the most prominent families in the US, the British Royal Family, European royalty and leaders who sow discord and insecurity around the world because they feed off the negative energy of the anxiety they create.

    See, it’s easy, anyone can do it.

    For example, I strongly suspect that the QAnon group is actually a Russian disinformation campaign with the purpose of destabilizing US society and, for all I know, Sandy is really posting from GRU headquarters in Moscow. Who’s to know?

  341. 341
    Mac McTavish says:

    I like Giuliani’s press conference that Trump announce would be held at the Four Seasons Philadelphia. Turns out that it was held at Four Seasons Total Landscaping, located in an industrial park, between an adult book store and a crematorium. Trump’s lawyers have to learn how to read a hotel directory. 🙂

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/four-seasons-total-landscaping-trump-team-news-conference.html

  342. 342
    kairosfocus says:

    Sev, really? Or, is it that the historical “forever” norm, lawless oligarchy by powerful, connected elites, is rearing its head in the USA. More to the point, the mere existence of such a “glitch” implies that the software checks and certification of fitness for purpose failed. I recall a European country, I think it was Belgium, that at one stage banned computer controlled systems for vehicles, demanding mechanical controls as they were more reliable. Similarly, there is no way an ATM that suddenly shifted significant sums of money from accounts would be shrugged off. That is, we have here another tell on the substandard nature of the American election system, which I have been noting could not stand a benchmarking comparison with how a run of the mill Coop bank handles cash and accounts. This is instantly, an audit red flag, pointing also to weak system controls thus need for drastic close investigation and auditor-advised reform. Reform involving mass firings and maybe court cases; these should have been leading congressional investigations over recent years instead of the garbage agit prop media lynchings we saw. Frankly, RICO maybe should have been in play. Hence, the comments by the auditor I have cited. Multiply that by the patterns otherwise such as how, consistently, the dubious elements have broken one way. (see below.) The election system is broken . . . has been broken and resistant to sound reforms for decades at least since fraud tipped the 1960 election . . . and a lot of ordinary folks are understandably looking at it with disgust trending disaffection. No, I am not endorsing across the board, though much of the below is manifest fact and fair comment, I am pointing out that it is blue collar, hinterland people like this who are not political junkies, that are being angered now, angered for cause. Lucy pulled the football once too many times. KF

    PS: This is what the sort of disgust and disaffection I am speaking about looks like:

    Did you watch the election returns on Tuesday night? Did you stay up all night?

    At about midnight on the east coast, Trump led in all the battleground states by large margins. The betting odds were more than 75% for Trump to win. Then for some unexplainable reason, Wisc, Mich, Pa, NC, and NV all stopped counting votes simultaneously… in unison…. took a “pause” … at around 1 AM. None of those states counted any additional votes for the next 3 hours. So what did they do for those 3 hours?

    Let me point out a couple of things:

    1. All of those 5 states have Democrat governors.

    2. Suddenly during the 3 hour shut down, in the dead of night when most people were sleeping, all those states found enough votes for Biden to catch Trump. 5 for 5. At midnight in Michigan, Trump was ahead by 5% (400 thousand votes) with 80% of the votes already counted. When the next 10% of votes of about 400,000 were counted from Wayne County (Detroit), then suddenly Biden caught Trump with 90% of the votes in. Biden made up 5% with 10% of the total vote. That means that all the votes (close to 100%) from Wayne went to Biden. That also means that practically all registered voters voted in Wayne County. Does anyone believe any of that is possible? The same thing happened in Madison, Wis, In Raleigh, NC, in Las Vegas, NV, and could be happening in Phil, Pa by Friday. So why did all those Democrat stronghold cities take a “pause” to report their votes?

    3. Not one pundit questioned why a shut down in counting votes happened in all those states simultaneously. Not one. Not even on FOX. Not one questioned how almost all of the newly counted votes in those battleground states went to Biden. Only NewsMax pointed out the coincidence of it happening in those 5 states with Democrat governors with Trump ahead before the “pauses.”

    4. Wisc is now reporting 3,239,920 votes cast when there are only 3,129,000 registered voters on record. More people voted than actually registered. When questioned, the Democrat Sec of State says there are 3.6 million registered voters from late registrations. Even if there are 3.6 million registered voters, that means that 90% of them voted when the average was 55 to 60% across the USA. How did almost all votes from Madison go for Biden? Almost 100% of registered voters, not just votes? Did ballot harvesting happen? How about in those other battleground states?

    [5]. CNN, FOX, NBC, ABC, CBS all refused to call the elections in Tx and Fla until almost all votes were counted, yet FOX called Az only 30 minutes after the polls closed with less than 50% of the votes. Arizona had a million outstanding votes in Republican Maricopa County with Biden ahead in the state by only 100,000 when Az was called for Biden.

    If you think that the media cartel was hard at work demonizing Trump for the last 4 years … 94% negative Trump reports…. then it was in full swing last night at protecting those Democrat governors in the battleground states.

    Think about this for a moment: “resist” by Democrats from the first day that Trump was elected, recounts, no peaceful transition of power, impeachment, 3 years of false accusations about Trump colluding with Russia to affect the 2016 election, Mueller, Comey/Clapper/Brennan with the FISA requests and the Steele Dossier paid by Hillary Clinton, 22 FBI agents lost their jobs because of spying on Trump, riots/looting/violence, continued polls that proved to be wrong, $400 billion by Soros and Bloomberg for Biden, Wall Street 4 to 1 in donations to Biden, lack of coverage about the Bidens’ relationships with China/Russia/Ukraine/Burisma, and then Covid, covid, covid around the clock by the media … with little mention of the record economic and international results by Trump.

    Covid became the reason for the unsolicited mail out of ballots by Democrat governors. Covid was used to scare voters and to distract them from Trump accomplishments. Covid was used as the reason to shut down economies in Democrat run states. Let’s see what happens with Covid now that Democrats and the media no longer need it.

    So did those battleground states run by Democrats use ballot harvesting or any other types of election fraud? How did the vote tallies change so dramatically after those Democrat governors “paused” in their election counts in the dead of night? In all 5 Democrat controlled battleground states? If the media, Democrats, and deep state could be in such collusion against Trump for 4 years, then how hard is it to question collusion in ballot counting last night by those Democrat governors?

    What gets lost with a Biden election? for starters: any investigation of Biden with Burisma and China, the Barr investigations, the Durham investigations, the investigations of deep state players, and Constitution integrity with DC as a state and with packing the Supreme Court. Democrats had lots on the line so they practiced “the end justifies the means” just as Alinsky instructed. They cheated and the media helped.

    Who won the election? Average working Americans lost. Election integrity lost. No matter who won, America got less great

    Now, you tell me what you are going to do to mend fences with disgusted, disaffected people like this. And no, sneering dismissiveness and belittling as though only tinfoil hat attempted faraday cage wild eyed ignoramuses raise things like this will only further alienate and enrage the average dude, Charlie Browns feeling the football has been pulled yet again.

    At what point does spreading disaffection reach critical mass?

  343. 343
    kairosfocus says:

    MMT, 305:

    I pause for a step by step:

    >> everybody knew the mail-in ballots would heavily favor Biden.>>

    — immediately, the issue is that the loose, mail in ballot system pushed for in recent months was substandard relative to say how Coop banks handle cash and accounts, i.e. an open invitation to chaos [USPS here, the failed system leading to the birth of a packet shipping industry] and open to fraud on the grand scale

    — Motive is there for the ruthless, given trillion dollar values at stake even before one gets to ideology

    — There is a history you are not acknowledging, with e.g. the 1960 dubious electoral win and the chaos of 2000, going with the point I have made, the US election system would fail a benchmark against cash and account handling by a coop bank

    — the compounding “glitch” story and widespread prevalence of the now suspect machines, joined to the collective ho hum, multiply the point’s force: a substandard, chaos and fraud prone election system that has been resistant to obvious reforms for decades.

    — who benefits, net, given your next suggestion and the once accident, twice coincidence, thrice enemy action principle?

    >>The Biden campaign urged their supporters to vote by mail due to COVID. And the Trump campaign strongly urged his supporters to vote in person.>>

    — only part of the story and nowhere near enough to account for the sort of fluctuations being claimed; you need to respond point by point to the auditor.

    >> This alone would skew the mail in ballots in Biden’s favor.>>

    — not by enough to create the sort of runs and provenance of runs being seen. Two party systems, acting normally, just don’t have that sort of run in ballots. The pause, the dumps, the 5 for 5 reversal of normally commanding leads, lockout of scrutineers etc are cumulatively strong evidence of fraud not mere incompetence.

    >>Add to this the fact that the vast majority of mail-In ballots come from large urban areas, which tend to lean heavily Democrat, and we would predict that the mail-in ballots would strongly favor Biden.>>

    — not enough to explain runs on order of 1,000 – 10,000 of solid one way ballots. See my urn and 2-sided die [aka coin] flip model. See, the auditor. Here is 246 above as a first sampler:

    on runs, with 70% odds in favour, independent trials (flipping a coin with 70% chance of H): 10 — 0.028; 100 — 3.235*10^-16; 1,000 — 1.253*10^-155 — threshold bat which, effectively unobservable in our cosmos [that is about the FSCO/I threshold for inferring moral certainty, design]; 10,000+ — well beyond that. we are looking at up to 100k plus in runs. That’s structural-systematic, beyond reasonable doubt. Design.

    Then 303, two comments before yours — you are unresponsive to the substantial points on the table:

    in a viable two-party system we will tend to see vote ratios running like 50:50 to maybe 70:30, where recall, 55:45 is called a landslide for cause. When we see ratios running more like 90:10 or approaching 100% for large numbers of alleged votes that becomes suspicious. When, in addition we see runs ranging to 1,000 or 10,000 or more votes on one side, that is essentially unobservable as a chance outcome. We are most credibly seeing signatures of machine politics essentially driven by fear and/or outright vote buying. That such are in a wider “run” of multiple developments pushing votes to one side consistently and in strategically decisive states says, this is by pretty dirty design. And yes, that provides good empirical warrant to moral certainty, especially when multiplied by multiple decade resistance to obviously needed electoral reforms that can readily be bench marked against how banks handle cash, accounts, records and chain of custody.

    >>Ballots are counted, and the counters are observe>>

    — proper close observation was locked out, this is brought out above. Being there at 6 feet or less is utterly different from being forced out to 20 – 30 feet as was reported.

    >>d. Questionable ballots are set aside and dealt with at the end.>>

    — the Alito 2nd order above shows that there is serious concern that this was frustrated.

    >> Ballots are checked against the voter list and checks are in place to ensure that there are no duplicate ballots.>>

    — Notoriously, these fail. Notice, the screen shot appended to OP. Those are tells on grossly inadequate controls and no domestic violence protection by assigning birth date Jan 1 1800 or the like does not explain that.

    — Turnouts grossly in excess of 100% are similar cases.

    >>All we have seen are accusations>>

    — False, attempt to dismiss facts in evidence and linked concerns/fair comment as empty accusation. Such projection gives us the right to apply the mirror principle and infer on your own motives and behaviour.

    >>of things that could lead to voter fraud,>>

    — one, flags on systemic inadequacy in a context of decades of resistance to reform such that the system would fail benchmarking against how a coop bank handles cash and accounts implies INTENT backed by power, now being excused and defended by gaslighting.

    — such red flags should long since have led to the proverbial audit from hell, followed by major reforms. That didn’t happen and that is a further tell. The system is broken because it benefits somebodies who are powerful indeed to have it that way.

    — thus, the SYSTEM is corrupt and significantly fraudulent.

    >> but zero hard evidence>>

    — brazen falsehood, sorry gaslighting fail.

    >> that it has occurred.>>

    — chaos and fraud have clearly occurred, and attempts to brazenly gaslight it away are further tells of just how broken the system is.

    >>The irregularities will be investigated, as they are after every election,>>

    — decades of failure to carry out the degree of patently needed reform (benchmark that coop bank and cash-account handling) show the investigations are part of the corrupt system, serving to mollify not to reform.

    >>and corrections made if necessary.>>

    — 1960 was 60 years ago, 2000 20. How long is it going to take to get sound reforms? Gaslighting again.

    >>Frankly, I am disappointed at UD becoming the home for crazy conspiracy theories.>>

    — we are entitled to reverse the projections through the mirror principle. You just implicitly admitted that you are coming from groups that organise attacks on dissidents from the dominant narrative and that you are less than rational.

    — The prevalence of selective hyperskepticism projected to dismiss, spin and gaslight away what does not fit the partyline, per 1984, tells us all we need to know about the nature of the radical agendas that have been running ruinous riot all over our civilisation and its key institutions.

    — just remember that those who frustrate the ballot box, create a situation where at some point, the locked out will find themselves looking very seriously to the alternatives laid out in 2nd para US DoI.

    — do you really want to move from dynamics of petition and reform to those of revolution? But then, this year has clearly shown that dirty form McFaul colour revolution using marxist critical theory ideology has been running riot.

    — with this emerging constitutional and legitimacy crisis, it is too late to stop a wild ride onward. What mad folly!

    KF

  344. 344
    orthomyxo says:

    The only solid claim in there is the idea that there were runs of “1,000 – 10,000 of solid one way ballots”. But… is there any evidence of this? The only think like this I’ve seen are a handful of Qanon-level conspriracists who are talking about numbers entered into news websites (i.e. one candidate’s value increasing before the other one does) Is there any evidence this happened in actual vote talleys, and not secondary reports of them?

    (I do agree US democracy, with all the anti-democractic measures like the EC and the devolution of rules out to states and counties is a bit of a rusty old machine. But that’s true in every election, not just the ones where your guys loses).

  345. 345
    kairosfocus says:

    Ortho, you obviously weren’t watching the vote dumps being pointed out. I won’t bother with your onward dismissiveness and invidious association. KF

    PS: Have you read Plato’s parable of the ship of state? Have you compared the microcosm incident in Ac 27? Can you relate it to why after a struggle the US created an Electoral College that forces 50 parallel elections rather than domination by localised centres of power, population and influence as part of systematic checks and balances? As a clue, why is it the united STATES of America? (And yes, the lower case U was commonly used.)

  346. 346
    kairosfocus says:

    GOING FORWARD: This election, its context of dirty form McFaul colour revolution [cf. OP] driven by inherently tyrannical and extremist marxist critical theories (which have conquered the academy and other key institutions) and underlying issues such as the ongoing holocaust of living posterity in the womb — 63+ millions since 1973, mounting up at 400k/y currently — mark make/break point and existential crisis for the USA. The USA has long been being weighed in the balances and found increasingly wanting, now the Ac 27 storm is striking with typhoon force. The strategic decision in the long since simmering 4G shadow civil war will come over the next 14 months, and will be pivotal for the world not just the US. Will the emerging lawless marxist ideological oligarchy win leading to domination by a new nomenklatura? I will have audacity to hope, not; the issue will be the degree of damage taken in the struggle to defeat this resurgence of what frankly has been the sad lot of the average human being since “forever.” The linked issue will be the further geostrategic cost at the hands of circling vultures and the ones already lurking closer to hand in the shadows. What fools we have been, collectively to allow things to come to such a pass comparable to the catastrophe of 1914. KF

  347. 347
    Sandy says:

    @Kairosfocus
    The problem with conservatives is they make the false assumption that leftists have a moral code. You can’t provide them answers ad infinitum when is obvious that many are just trolls and clowns.

  348. 348
    orthomyxo says:

    It is a very long thread, so I must admit to bit reading it all. If there are evidence for these runs off thousands of ballots for Biden in one of the posts? Point it out if therew is…

  349. 349
    kairosfocus says:

    Ortho, you double down on gaslighting, reflecting selective hyperskepticism. The evidence is in the sudden reversal dumps in the wee hours of the morning as has been repeatedly noted. Runs to 28 k were mentioned above and utterly implausible ratios appeared in the 100+ k classes, suggesting severely biased and credibly outright fraudulent ballot harvesting, likely by tossing inconvenient ballots given want of proper chain of custody with scrutineers. See the concerns raised here on election integrity. That statistical implausibility what caught my attention in the first place; 70:30 ratio, yes, what was seen, no. Why don’t you respond point by point to the concerns raised by an auditor as has been cited several times above. In that context, kindly study the multiplicative force of a cumulative case. KF

    PS: Observe from the linked, especially — but by no means only:

    Michigan

    Michigan has a typical state law that sought to prevent “ballot harvesting,” the practice of individuals collecting multiple ballots from the vulnerable, such as the elderly, often through coercion or intimidation, and potentially discarding them. Thus, according to statute, only particular individuals, such as family, friends, and mail carriers, may transmit a person’s absentee ballot to the appropriate clerk.

    In September, after a challenge by left-leaning organizations in the state, a Michigan judge overruled these safeguards, calling them “unconstitutional” and allowing voters to “choose” anyone to return their ballots. The judge also ruled that any ballot postmarked by November 2 would be valid no matter when it arrived.

    I notice that not one of the objectors above has substantially addressed my concern regarding how election practices would fail benchmarking against how banks handle cash and accounts. This has been a problem for a long time and has been sustained in the teeth of many warnings and calls for responsible reform. It is systemic and deliberate, reflective of what powerful interests want. That is utterly telling and sets the context to evaluate the further issues.

  350. 350
    JVL says:

    Kairosfocus: The evidence is in the sudden reversal dumps in the wee hours of the morning as has been repeatedly noted. Runs to 28 k were mentioned above and utterly implausible ratios appeared in the 100+ k classes, suggesting severely biased and credibly outright fraudulent ballot harvesting, likely by tossing inconvenient ballots given want of proper chain of custody with scrutineers.

    I think Orthomyxo just wants the actual evidence these things happened. And, figuring that websites and tallies are updated sporadically and not continuously, why some of these increments of numbers are proof of fraud.

    But let’s see the actual evidence they happened at all.

    The auditor was not present at any of the contested locations so it’s just an opinion from a distance.

  351. 351
    kairosfocus says:

    U/D to OP: The Hopkins affidavit regarding backdating of mailed in ballots and attempted whistleblower intimidation. KF

  352. 352
    kairosfocus says:

    JVL, the live broadcasts were about as publicly available evidence as one gets; the strategically obvious focus and results are manifest to all, creating a needless constitutional crisis. The voting ratios on the whole are anomalous and are instantly evidence that something went very wrong as was warned when imprudent removal of already inadequate safeguards was insisted on. In the course of the dumps, runs of relevant length were seen. All I have provided is context as to why such runs are a signature of design not chance. As should be obvious to any reasonably educated person. Stop the selective hyperskepticism. KF

  353. 353
    JVL says:

    Kairosfocus: U/D to OP: The Hopkins affidavit regarding backdating of mailed in ballots and attempted whistleblower intimidation.

    Where were the ballots being picked up from? Had they been sent through the post? Could they have been posted in time but just not franked and sent ’til later? Have we heard the other side of the story?

    Most importantly, don’t you think it’s important to get as much information as possible (checking other witnesses, etc) before coming to a conclusion?

    I’m happy to wait and see what the courts make of it all. If there was malfeasance then it will come out.

    JVL, the live broadcasts were about as publicly available evidence as one gets; the strategically obvious focus and results are manifest to all, creating a needless constitutional crisis.

    The only people who think there is a constitutional crisis are those who are claiming fraud.

    The voting ratios on the whole are anomalous and are instantly evidence that something went very wrong as was warned when imprudent removal of already inadequate safeguards was insisted on.

    That has not been established. YOU find them indicative; have you compared them to other election nights?

    In the course of the dumps, runs of relevant length were seen. All I have provided is context as to why such runs are a signature of design not chance. As should be obvious to any reasonably educated person. Stop the selective hyperskepticism

    YOU think the runs mean something but you have no proof of that. You have not heard from any of the pertinent election officials or monitors or counters. You are anomaly hunting and conclusion jumping.

    Besides, if someone did want to perpetrate the fraud you claim happened wouldn’t they have hidden their tracks better than that to avoid that kind of conclusion from being drawn?

    Why not wait until all available evidence is produced before pointing fingers?

  354. 354
    bornagain77 says:

    Hmmm,

    BENFORD’S LAW:
    I was not aware of this, but r/dataisbeautiful tells me it is relied on as a method of determining data manipulation in accounting, finance, and elections.
    So let’s apply it to some swing states, shall we?…
    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1324536420992733185.html

    Hmm, the supposed ‘party of science’ blatantly defies a law of science? How convenient that a law of science would apparently suspend itself, multiple times no less, when democrats needed it to..

    Here is a ‘tip of the iceberg’ type anomaly of thousands of votes being ‘manufactured’ for Biden,,,

    https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=10157673903684599&set=a.10150525758009599

  355. 355
    Sandy says:

    Why would democrats “try” to look suspicious by hidding ballots from inspection and in the same time pretending they are correct? 🙂 🙂 🙂

    There is not neccesary to present evidences for fraud it’s enough democrats broke the law that would trigger the audit.

    Trump is your president till 2024 and maybe beyond.

  356. 356
    kairosfocus says:

    BA77, I am aware of that weird pattern in statistics where a log normal distribution results from numbers across a wide range being results of multiplicative factors somewhere, even including lengths of rivers; the 1 as most significant digit range then becomes dominant with a law for others. Yes, I am aware that it is used in fraud detection including for elections; made up data is unlikely to be driven by the sort of multiple factor process. I see that the pattern fits other candidates by precinct and that there is a mid-digits bulge. However, I am not confident that with domination of precincts and likely attempts to impose about the same scale, that the pattern would fit the dominant party. Mind you, the roots of that dominance may themselves be designs that are being detected. That is why I have not pointed to it, I don’t have confidence in probative force in this context. KF

  357. 357
    ET says:

    Your deflection rather than addressing my comment is duly noted.

    Says the troll that always deflects and never addresses.

  358. 358
    kairosfocus says:

    JVL, you are simply further showing my point. KF

  359. 359
    daveS says:

    KF,

    If what you’re suggesting actually happened (28,000 consecutive Biden votes, allegedly drawn at random from an unprocessed sample), then that’s proof beyond doubt of fraud or at least serious error.

    But as everyone is pointing out, we’re missing a lot of facts.

    I would hesitate to go out on a limb and conjecture fraud with such limited information.

  360. 360
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: Given the “no evidence” pile-on, I went looking and have posted an annotated illustration of an apparent vote jump overnight Nov 3/4, Michigan. Appended to OP as an image. KF

  361. 361
    daveS says:

    KF,

    Of course that doesn’t address our complaint. I think we all understood that (on some websites) Biden’s number went up and Trump’s number stayed the same.

  362. 362
    JVL says:

    Kairosfocus: JVL, you are simply further showing my point.

    What? Asking for real evidence? Asking some questions about the nature of your evidence? Asking some questions which may help explain what has been reported? Asking for calm heads and waiting until all the evidence is heard?

    Is that not how a civilised and intelligent examination should be carried out?

    Given the “no evidence” pile-on, I went looking and have posted an annotated illustration of an apparent vote jump overnight Nov 3/4, Michigan. Appended to OP as an image.

    Consider the source of your graphic. Is that the best you can do, a blogger with an axe to grind? Can you not find a reputable and impartial source?

    Literally thousands of news sources and reporters are saying that President Trump has made accusations of fraud with no evidence. The White House has not released any evidence they have. Even some senior Republicans are backing away from President Trump’s statements and accusations. They don’t want to get caught up in his maelstrom of accusations.

    I’ve been told over and over and over again by frequent contributors to this site to think for myself, ask questions, consider the evidence and its source. Why are you now simply buying into a conspiracy theory which, so far, has very little solid evidence to back it up?

    Why not wait until the story is fleshed out, either by the courts or by the pertinent agencies explaining their actions? This is not hyperskepticism; this is common sense.

    IF there has been fraud and it’s firmly established (remember: innocent until “proven” guilty) then I will gladly condemn those who perpetrated the crimes. I believe in the rule of law and I, personally, consider the US system one of the finest ever devised by human beings.

    Let the system gather the evidence and wait and see what happens before buying into a civilisation threatening conspiracy which a vast majority of credible reporters think is unproven at best and bogus at worst.

  363. 363
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, you dodged the import, that is not some web site, it is two successive state captures at one of the tracking sites I used cf OP; note the PA breakout, which was the focal one when I clipped. Where it is found is irrelevant, its provenance is clear. That you continue to resist the implication of such a ballot dump tells us all we need to know. KF

  364. 364
    kairosfocus says:

    JVL cf exchange with DS just now i/l/o U/D to OP. KF

  365. 365
    bornagain77 says:

    This is rich, a Darwinist, after years of denying the overwhelming evidence for intelligent design, evidence that literally lies all around, and within, him, now has the audacity to ask for ‘real evidence’???,,, as if he will magically, all the sudden, be able to judge evidence objectively???? .

    🙂

    You just can’t this stuff up! Nobody would believe it. 🙂

  366. 366
    ET says:

    Exactly. The people who cannot assess any evidence want more of it to ignore.

  367. 367
    daveS says:

    KF,

    Please. I’m certainly not questioning the veracity of the websites. I believe that the numbers posted on them accurately reflected what the election workers reported. You’re studiously avoiding the pivotal issue. 🙂

  368. 368
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, did you observe which of these is not like the others, which of these is not the same? The tracking site updated with the vote tallies and I followed across the evening; the general pattern is splitting up the update across the different candidates, as is familiar. The jump is real and it shows a run of 100+ k, utterly implausible on random variations of sampling around a population ratio. I used 70:30 for illustration, it is a plausible yardstick for a real wipeout election, where a 10% spread is a landslide. And, in MI up to that dump, DJT was LEADING MI 51.6 to 46.7. The jump is before lead exchanged on the tally. That there would be a roughly 140k pocket of votes on one side naturally is utterly implausible. This is direct strong empirical demonstration of a designed shift in tally, delivered while most people are asleep. But then, the baseline premise of objectors around UD is to reject design inferences on empirical sign, no matter what. KF

  369. 369
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: An eyewitness speaks, the captioning is fuzzy at YT. KF

  370. 370
    daveS says:

    KF,

    I don’t know if I’m being cryptic, or if you’re pretending not to understand what I’m saying 😛

    That there would be a roughly 140k pocket of votes on one side naturally is utterly implausible.

    True!

    Now, consider what could have caused that jump, on the official website, of 140,000 in Biden’s total while Trump’s total remained stationary.

    Fraud is obviously one explanation.

    Are there any other possible explanations?

  371. 371
    JVL says:

    Kairosfocus: But then, the baseline premise of objectors around UD is to reject design inferences on empirical sign, no matter what.

    Not at all. It’s like using Dr Dempski’s explanatory filter: make sure you have eliminated all other possible explanations first and that hasn’t happened yet.

    Innocent until proven guilty; that’s the cardinal rule.

  372. 372
    Sandy says:

    What? Asking for real evidence? Asking some questions about the nature of your evidence?

    🙂 Democrats sit on evidences . They can very easily dismiss republican allegations as a lie by accepting audit. 😉 Democrats acts like a driver who won’t accept to be checked for alcohol because …he say so not because de tester says so. In real world we prefer to believe testing devices not what drivers( who don’t accept to be tested) say.
    PS :Flashnews- Joe Biden said last night that 230 million thousands people lost a members of family to covid.That mean 230 billion people. That’s a lot of people.

    Innocent until proven guilty; that’s the cardinal rule.

    Democrats are guilty to hide the ballots from observers. It’s enough.

  373. 373
    bornagain77 says:

    KF just watched the video. The end of the video is very telling, and sobering, as to the over to top shenanigans that the democrats were up to,

    “This Felt Like a Drug Deal!” – Asian-American Ballot Observer in Detroit Describes Mysterious Van Dropping Off 61 Boxes of Ballots at 4 AM (VIDEO)
    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/11/felt-like-drug-deal-asian-american-ballot-observer-detroit-describes-mysterious-van-dropping-off-61-boxes-ballots-4-video/

  374. 374
    kairosfocus says:

    BA77 (attn DS), yes, the whole video is disturbing and clearly shows why the bank cash and account handling bench mark is so key. The intimidation by activists in black is also significant. 130 k votes pop up after the watchers go home, 16k being seen arriving in a van at 4 am. Notice the scale of the jump DS is trying to make go away. No natural increment of 100k+ ballots will have such a one candidate only value. First, oh no evidence, then oh it must mean something else. The eyewitness tells us far more. KF

  375. 375
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, I commented to BA77 i/l/o relevance of the eyewitness testimony. That gives confirmation as to what was going down. Please read that comment and watch the video. KF

  376. 376
    bornagain77 says:

    This is very disturbing.

    If Biden and his cohorts manage to pull this blatant scam off, at least half of America will rightly view him as a ‘fraudulent’ president.

    His power will be greatly diminished, even non-existent, in the eyes of, at least, half the population of America simply by the fact that his presidency was fraudulently achieved.

  377. 377
    daveS says:

    KF,

    Notice the scale of the jump DS is trying to make go away. No natural increment of 100k+ ballots will have such a one candidate only value. First, oh no evidence, then oh it must mean something else. The eyewitness tells us far more.

    I’m not trying to make anything go away.

    There was a jump of 140,000 in Biden’s number on the official website, while Trump’s was unchanged.

    You are inferring that either:

    1) An (effectively) random sample of 140,000 unprocessed ballots actually ended up all being for Biden

    or

    2) Fraud occurred.

    Since 1) is not even remotely plausible, you conclude that 2) is the correct hypothesis.

  378. 378
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: Another apparent anomaly flag, incidence of president only voting

    https://twitter.com/raheemkassam/status/1325193658170134531?s=21

    Pennsylvania — 98,000
    Georgia — 80-90,000
    Arizona — 42,000
    Michigan — 69- 115,000
    Wisconsin — 62,836

    If you make it to vote you tend to vote for more than just one thing. Especially with straight party voting options.

    KF

  379. 379
    Mac McTavish says:

    This whole discussion reminds me of the completely discredited “Pizzagate” conspiracy theory. All based on complete falsehoods, innuendo and ridiculous inference from logos and symbols. The one I had the greatest laugh at was someone on another blog insisting that the triangle logo used by the pizza shop was a clear indication of pedophilia. Because, after all, why would a pizza shop ever use a triangle as a logo? 🙂

  380. 380
    ET says:

    JVL:

    It’s like using Dr Dempski’s explanatory filter: make sure you have eliminated all other possible explanations first and that hasn’t happened yet.

    The filter isn’t Dembski’s as even he calls it standard operating procedure. The filter follows Newton’s four rules and parsimony.

  381. 381
    ET says:

    Mac’s comments remind me of an infant who didn’t get its way and just starts saying anything for attention.

  382. 382
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, vote tallying was cut off, mid watch, no explanation. We went to bed on the lockdown. 4 am a truck rolls up, apparently 16 k, no counting until at least 5 am. 7 am it is news 130 k jump. Votes come from precincts, votes are added up based on the natural pattern of voters forming queue and who they support, this being a population sample. Extreme fluctuations are empirically impossible. This is an extreme fluctuation on steroids, and it is not the only one in key states happening overnight. All trending the same way, all helping to erase strong leads. We know strange things were happening per testimony. Inference, this is not a natural queue result, by voters lining up or by voters mailing ballots or harvesters just collecting whoever voted for whom. This is highly selectively filtered, at minimum. And that is already design. KF

  383. 383
    daveS says:

    Mac MT,

    Some of these details are indeed hilarious. Supposedly these fraudulent ballots were delivered in an unmarked van (of course), and a Ferrari. Surely no one will notice, because it’s 4 AM! 😂

  384. 384
    kairosfocus says:

    ET, JVL misreports, the default 1 is mechanical necessity, irrelevant to high contingency and here known human choice. Chance vs design, in a context where 70:30 is reasonable for so large a sample. 100:0, on a 138k run. A run that naturally fits a readily identified, simply describable goal. FSCO/I. Odds on fluctuation of chance with a 70:30 ratio 1 in 10^20+k. Not observable on gamut of our cosmos. Plausibly, readily explained on design. Design. But of course it will never be acknowledged. KF

  385. 385
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, the witness clearly stated — she switches chinese/ english repeatedly and fluidly mid sentence (strongly bilingual, but it seems better in English) — that a marked van with phone number was used, at 4 am. This is a registered observer speaking. You did not pay responsible attention. Her objection was this is coming from Detroit, not China so the timing was suspect. And she is right to be concerned. KF

  386. 386
    Mac McTavish says:

    Here is an interesting take on the computer glitch.

    Michigan GOP Chairwoman Laura Cox claimed at a press conference Friday that an election software “glitch” in one Michigan county switched thousands of votes for President Donald Trump to votes for Democratic challenger (now President-Elect) Joe Biden. Sounds like a pretty big scandal, right? Well, it very well might be if any portion of that statement was true….

    Benson explained that while Antrim County did experience a minor election tech issue this week, the GOP’s explanation is highly misleading. For one, local authorities caught and reported the problem early on in the vote tabulating process, so the error was never reflected in the state’s official results. It also wasn’t the result of a “glitch” in the software’s programming either, but rather an embarrassing human error that I’m sure we’ve all been guilty of before: putting off a software update for too long.

    Apparently, an Antrim County clerk didn’t update the software used to aggregate voting machine data and generate unofficial results, an accidental oversight that caused a miscalculation in the county’s unofficial results, Benson said. However, she added that existing election safeguards worked as intended and ensured the issue was swiftly corrected before the county submitted its official tally….

    “As with other unofficial results reporting errors, this was an honest mistake and did not affect any actual vote totals,” Benson said. “Election clerks work extremely hard and do their work with integrity. They are human beings, and sometimes make mistakes. However, there are many checks and balances that ensure mistakes can be caught and corrected.”

    “As with other unofficial results reporting errors, this was an honest mistake and did not affect any actual vote totals,” Benson said. “Election clerks work extremely hard and do their work with integrity. They are human beings, and sometimes make mistakes. However, there are many checks and balances that ensure mistakes can be caught and corrected.”….

    Benson added that even if officials hadn’t noticed the issue when they did, it would have been caught during the county canvass. That’s when the Boards of County Canvassers, which are made up of two Democrats and two Republicans, go around and verify the printed tallies from each machine to ensure the countywide totals are correct….

    A Michigan judge on Thursday also threw out a lawsuit from the Trump campaign challenging the state’s ballot counting. The campaign demanded that Benson require “meaningful access” for campaign poll watchers to supervise the state’s ballot counting, and by “campaign poll watchers” it’s presumed he was referring to the masses of angry Trump supporters that converged on tabulation sites while counting was underway. The judge dismissed the challenge as moot given that 1) ballot counting in Michigan had already wrapped up by then; 2) Benson had granted a directive for “meaningful access” for poll watchers; and 3) most states have established processes to approve poll watchers in the first place since letting any random person off the street barge in would be absolute chaos—as Trump supporters demonstrated beautifully.

    So, if this account is correct, and there is no evidence to suggest otherwise, the “glitch” was actually the result of a human error, not a software bug. And this error was identified early in the process, before official results were reported, and corrected. And even if it wasn’t identified then, the checks of reported counts against the counts recorded on the individual voting machines would have caught it.

    Even of greater interest is the fact that this human error would only have affected the in-person voting, voting that was strongly in Trump’s favor.

  387. 387
    daveS says:

    KF,

    Ok, I stand corrected on that point. The Ferrari is a nice touch though. Maybe Jeff Bezos was driving?

  388. 388
    Sandy says:

    Will be riots after Trump is elected for second term but national guard will resolve quickly the problem. 😉

  389. 389
    kairosfocus says:

    MMT, would you accept as a minor problem an ATM that transfers $6000 from your account to mine when you make a deposit? The glitch is a serious sign of defective software, testing, training and operation. Again, would not pass a bank cash and account handling procedure benchmark. KF

    PS: Evidence of a 138 k run is on the table.

  390. 390
    kairosfocus says:

    Sandy, is English your first language? KF

  391. 391
    Sandy says:

    @Kairosfocus
    Obviously not.

  392. 392
    kairosfocus says:

    Sandy, okay, it helps to clarify. KF

  393. 393
    Mac McTavish says:

    KF

    MMT, would you accept as a minor problem an ATM that transfers $6000 from your account to mine when you make a deposit? The glitch is a serious sign of defective software, testing, training and operation. Again, would not pass a bank cash and account handling procedure benchmark. KF

    You obviously didn’t read my comment. Or you have no idea how software works. A county official forgot to upgrade the software used to assemble and tally the data from the voting machines. This was identified very early and before any official results were reported. So there was no transfer of votes from one candidate to the other. And even if the human error hadn’t been identified early there is a manual comparison of the voting machine tallies against the amassed numbers, so it would have been identified then. In short, the checks and balances built into the system work.

    Evidence of a 138 k run is on the table.

    Yes it is. But neither you nor I know the specific details of how ballots are assembled, sorted, recorded and reported. I will await an explanation before I make unfounded accusations.

  394. 394
    Mac McTavish says:

    KF

    PS: Evidence of a 138 k run is on the table.

    This did intrigue me so I spent a few minutes to dig deeper. It turns out that this run never occurred. It was a typo that was passed on. The checks and balances built into the system quickly identified this and corrected it.

    Conservative columnist Matt Mackowiak, for instance, posted a tweet claiming that Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden had received 100% of newly counted ballots — approximately 128,000 — in the battleground state of Michigan. Mackowiak later deleted this tweet after it was revealed that the suspicious boost was the result of a typo, but not before the claim was shared by popular conservative writer Matt Walsh, who wrote that “this is reason enough to go to court. No honest person can look at this and say it’s normal and unconcerning.” U.S. President Donald Trump then retweeted that tweet, writing: “WHAT IS THIS ALL ABOUT?”

    The graphic he presented is the same one you posted in the OP

    Mackowiak’s original assertion was based on an error made by the election analysis service Decision Desk HQ. The company said in a statement to Buzzfeed News:

    “It was a simple error from a file created by the state that we ingested. DDHQ does not correct / amend / adjust any state provided file. The state noticed the error and produced an updated count. This happens on election nights and we expect other vote tabulators in MI experienced this error and corrected in real-time as we did.”

    As a result of this Mackowiak’s deleted his original tweet.

    During an election there are thousands (possibly millions) of manual transcriptions of data. All of which are prone to human error. That is why there are checks and balances in place to ensure that the errors are identified and corrected.

    The bottom line is that there never was a real run of 128k votes. It was a temporary anomaly that was quickly corrected. This takes the 128k run off the table.

  395. 395
    kairosfocus says:

    MMT, your problem is, the same run problem occurs in multiple key states at scales well beyond 1,000. It is responsible for the cliffs in vote counts. And in this case we have an eyewitness observer who saw 16 k reportedly come in by truck 4 am, left 5 am them heard on news 7 am about 130 k. That eyewitness is key. Sorry, it does not vanish so neatly. KF

  396. 396
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: U/D 3 to Op on vote tally cliffs. KF

  397. 397
    rhampton7 says:

    Bornagain77

    What you called left wing spin was a piece from Erick Erickson. You owe him an apology.

  398. 398
    kairosfocus says:

    MMT, I repeat, would you find it an acceptable performance that on your depositing money to an ATM, $ 6000 would appear instead in my account? The point remains, that there are patterns that would not pass a bench mark against a coop bank’s cash and account handling. My own inclination is to scrap the machines and use proper scrutineers. KF

  399. 399
    Mac McTavish says:

    KF, but I assume that you will amend the OP and remove the graphic with the 128k run that has already been explained as a typo that was quickly corrected.

    If you can provide more specific details about the very large I corrected runs that were observed in other states.

  400. 400
    rhampton7 says:

    Mary Katherine Ham
    @mkhammer

    All false.

    1) There was a batch of 169K absentee ballots counted at once from Milwaukee that ran about 75-25 Biden.

    2) In MI that was an input error that added a 0 and was fixed in 30 min.

    3) PA rules didn’t allow them to count mail-in ballots until after. Were not all Biden.

    I get that people are desperate to create a narrative, but spreading blatant falsehoods to undermine trust in our institutions is harmful garbage. It won’t help Trump win, but it will hurt your credibility.

  401. 401
    Mac McTavish says:

    KF

    And in this case we have an eyewitness observer who saw 16 k reportedly come in by truck 4 am, left 5 am them heard on news 7 am about 130 k. That eyewitness is key. Sorry, it does not vanish so neatly. KF

    I assume that you are referring to the white van that placed a ballot box in a wagon and took it into the counting centre at 4:00 am. The claim that has since been hilariously debunked. It turns out that it was a news photographer with equipment.

    https://twitter.com/wxyzdetroit/status/1324331937385848835?s=21

    F/N: U/D 3 to Op on vote tally cliffs. KF

    Repeating an anomaly that was identified and corrected by election officials is not helping your claim of fraud.

  402. 402
    rhampton7 says:

    Erick Erickson
    @EWErickson (replying to Brad)
    It is so weird to see Baptists going full Amaziah. For a group that prides itself on separation of church and state, this is a bad look. Amos needs to talk to the priests of Jeroboam.

    Brad Jurkovich
    @bradjurkovich
    We have a sitting US President who has not conceded the election, nothing has been verified and yet our SBC President and ERLC President are calling this race for Biden? Very revealing. Millions of Southern Baptists are ready for change in the SBC. And it’s coming.

    Dwight McKissic
    @pastorMack (replying to Brad)
    It would be a critical mistake for the CBN to cast a cloud over the election of the first African-Asian female VP elected & President-elect Joe Biden. Even Pastor Robert Jeffress has acknowledged the legitimacy of the election. The CBN can’t function as a GOP/SBC caucus group.

  403. 403
    Mac McTavish says:

    KF

    MMT, I repeat, would you find it an acceptable performance that on your depositing money to an ATM, $ 6000 would appear instead in my account?

    Of course not. But if you think that banking systems are infallible, you are sadly mistaken.

    My own inclination is to scrap the machines and use proper scrutineers. KF

    My preference would be to use paper ballots read by scanners and randomly audited. Which, in fact, is how most states do it.

  404. 404
    rhampton7 says:

    Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson, of Wisconsin, said Friday that half the country will not accept the outcome of the presidential election if Democrat Joe Biden wins.

    “It’s very unfortunate that no matter who wins, the other half of America is not going to view this as a particularly legitimate election,” Johnson said on WTMJ-AM.

    https://www.hngnews.com/sun_prairie_star/news/article_050f295e-ad1b-55e9-9c01-e3b8289f13b6.html

    38
    Rhampton7
    November 2, 2020 at 5:40 pm
    No matter the winner, 45% of the country will say, “He’s not my President!” The next four years will be bad.

  405. 405
    daveS says:

    KF,

    Regarding #395, you don’t even miss a step! It appears you’re prepared to sling BS all day if that’s what it takes. 🙂

    (With all due respect)

  406. 406
    ET says:

    It really doesn’t matter. The USA is as divided now, or even more so, than it ever has been.

  407. 407
    Mac McTavish says:

    DaveS

    Regarding #395, you don’t even miss a step! It appears you’re prepared to sling BS all day if that’s what it takes.

    I wouldn’t say BS, as I think that KF truly believes what he is saying. But it is rather baffling that he doubles and triples down on a conspiracy theory when he has been corrected with easily found facts.

    I realize that this is a little off topic, but it is indirectly related to the topic of the OP.

    U.S. counties with highest virus surges overwhelmingly voted Trump, analysis shows

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid-19-counties-election-1.5792180?fbclid=IwAR3Jygd03Kcn-JijWQ_TUw0yDzp_JwRjP1XBN_Jit1VyN-Ab95Yabm1IZq0

    Although, given the crowds that have materialized to celebrate Biden’s victory, I suspect that we may see a shift in this.

  408. 408
    Mac McTavish says:

    ET

    It really doesn’t matter. The USA is as divided now, or even more so, than it ever has been.

    Sadly, I think you are correct. But I think a large factor in Biden’s win was Trump’s divisive and vindictive nature.

  409. 409
    daveS says:

    Mac McT,

    Yes, I’m very concerned with all these gatherings, when the virus is already getting out of control.

  410. 410
    Mac McTavish says:

    DaveS, the only thing that might be in our favor is that I hardly saw anyone without a mask. And most were wearing them properly.

  411. 411
    daveS says:

    George W Bush has congratulated Biden and Harris.

    I just talked to the President-elect of the United States, Joe Biden. I extended my warm congratulations and thanked him for the patriotic message he delivered last night. I also called Kamala Harris to congratulate her on her historic election to the vice presidency. Though we have political differences, I know Joe Biden to be a good man, who has won his opportunity to lead and unify our country. The President-elect reiterated that while he ran as a Democrat, he will govern for all Americans. I offered him the same thing I offered Presidents Trump and Obama: my prayers for his success, and my pledge to help in any way I can.

    I want to congratulate President Trump and his supporters on a hard-fought campaign. He earned the votes of more than 70 million Americans – an extraordinary political achievement. They have spoken, and their voices will continue to be heard through elected Republicans at every level of government.

    The fact that so many of our fellow citizens participated in this election is a positive sign of the health of our democracy and a reminder to the world of its strength. No matter how you voted, your vote counted. President Trump has the right to request recounts and pursue legal challenges, and any unresolved issues will be properly adjudicated. The American people can have confidence that this election was fundamentally fair, its integrity will be upheld, and its outcome is clear.

    The challenges that face our country will demand the best of President-elect Biden and Vice President-elect Harris – and the best of us all. We must come together for the sake of our families and neighbors, and for our nation and its future. There is no problem that will not yield to the gathered will of a free people. Laura and I pray for our leaders and their families. We ask for God’s continued blessings on our country. And we urge all Americans to join us in wishing our next President and Vice President well as they prepare to take up their important duties.

  412. 412
    JVL says:

    Kairosfocus: MMT, your problem is, the same run problem occurs in multiple key states at scales well beyond 1,000. It is responsible for the cliffs in vote counts. And in this case we have an eyewitness observer who saw 16 k reportedly come in by truck 4 am, left 5 am them heard on news 7 am about 130 k. That eyewitness is key. Sorry, it does not vanish so neatly. KF

    But do you query it, do you examine it, do you ask questions trying to establish its truthfulness? Are you willing to wait until the system churns through the legal process?

    There is nothing wrong, and a lot right, in querying claims of fraud. We should all want to be very, very sure we have all the evidence before declaring a verdict.

    What is your motivation: to find the truth or to ‘prove’ a pre-existing bias. Ask yourself honestly and truthfully. It’s really important.

  413. 413
    ET says:

    Mac:

    But I think a large factor in Biden’s win was Trump’s divisive and vindictive nature.

    That’s just obtuse. President Trump was attacked continuously from the left every since he became a candidate. The left divided the country because they are a bunch of whining losers. It was the left’s vindictive nature that divided the USA. It has always been if the left don’t get their way the whine and divide. The left has always been the party of “you are free to speak your mind as long as you agree with us”.

    If Biden receives the constant vitriol that Trump has, he will wilt in under a year. But that is moot as he won’t be the President for a year. He will be the sacrificial lamb that gets Kamala the Presidency via default. The default being his incompetency and corruption. And that will just further divide the country.

  414. 414
    ET says:

    Conspiracy theories? The left floated how many conspiracy theories with respect to Trump’s Presidency? How did the Russian collusion conspiracy theory work out?

    Hypocrites are amongst us

  415. 415
    orthomyxo says:

    F/N: Given the “no evidence” pile-on, I went looking and have posted an annotated illustration of an apparent vote jump overnight Nov 3/4, Michigan. Appended to OP as an image. KF

    Right… but this was precisely my point. The only evidence for these runs of ballots is the number entered in ones of dozens of aggregators runs by news sites. That’s evidence that someone wrote in Biden’s talley before Trumps, not that there were thousands of biden votes counted a precint or recorded by the state.

    And yes, to your other point, I do understand the compromises made to slave states in forming the electoral college. Doesn’t seem like a reason to keep it (but that’s up to Americans to decide, of course).

  416. 416
    kairosfocus says:

    MMT et al,

    the attempted pounce and pile on would be amusing if they were not in the end sad.

    The eyewitness report in view was above, a mandarin Chinese woman who as an observer reports what she was told about the ballots brought in at 4 am; no this was not some video cam or something like that. It is obvious this report was not taken on board seriously. This is the same report that pointed to intimidatory behaviour. She reports the later numbers in news at 7 am.

    Next, Snopes (which you did not link) is not particularly to be taken as gospel as fact checker. In that context, there are two similar images but not the same, numbers are significantly different. In which context the cliffs in counts are still relevant as is IIRC 23k on a run in PA. Any run at or beyond 1,000 is dubious, highly dubious.

    The cliffs are real. They are what took out the leads in multiple states. They need to be explained.

    All of this comes against the backdrop of what the injection of mail in voting did. Where, manifestly, there is an affidavit on the table regarding fraudulent behaviour in post office and whistleblower retaliation; cf. OP. That alone, the mail in vote push, is effectively proof of at minimum reckless disregard for the integrity of the electoral system. Mix in ballot harvesting by so called third parties and it frankly becomes in itself prima facie proof of fraudulent intent.

    That is not going to go away.

    Period.

    It is also to be noted that the vote count cliffs occur with different states. As is noted. That makes the there was this one glitch, fixed after 1/2 hr explanation less than adequate.

    If I become good and satisfied that my different numbers and different images — the popups will be same place for same state, it is the numbers that count — are wrong, I will remove them. I am in no hurry at this time; there is a real world to address. In due course.

    Enough else is on the table, and the robustness of the point goes down to 1,000 in a run or even significantly less, Earth during the course of modern history is well within the gamut of the observed cosmos with every atom an observer every 10^-14 s or so.

    Going further, the basic point remains that the data “glitch” is a sign of deeper troubles, that the procedures will not bear scrutiny of benchmarking against how a bank handles cash and accounts. Which is not perfect but is very reliable and a lot more professional than the sort of behaviour testified to. The suggestion that I am naive is a strawman caricature that dodges the point.

    Frankly, I am skeptical about voting machines and the scrutineer mechanisms clearly require fixing. I would also go in for good old ink dipped fingers, updated to UV fluorescing dye. A database of registered voters and recorded votes on a high reliability network would be my sole concession to IT. And no voters born in 1823. No districts at 100+ percent voting.

    With all of that on the table, it is too late to be singing saccharine words over unity and legitimacy. Especially, with months of riot, arson, looting and mayhem, a track record of grievous false accusations [think, Justice Kavanaugh], a sham impeachment, declared intent to pack the Supreme Court with ideologues up to 12 or 15 depending, demands to defund/abolish the police, the use of marxist ideology and more.

    Those are 4G war operations.

    Wars, in case you don’t know, have a life of their own, once launched. The genie, predictably will not be pushed back in the bottle.

    More could be said, but later.

    KF

  417. 417
    kairosfocus says:

    Ortho, the evidence is the runs and their reflection in the cliffs that took out the leads. KF

  418. 418
    rhampton7 says:

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday congratulated Joe Biden and Kamala Harris on their election victory — but saved his warmest wishes for President Trump.

    Netanyahu said he looked forward to working with the new administration and strengthening the alliance between the U.S. and Israel.

    “Congratulations @JoeBiden and @KamalaHarris. Joe, we’ve had a long & warm personal relationship for nearly 40 years, and I know you as a great friend of Israel,” he wrote on his Twitter account, which still had a picture of him and Trump as its banner.

    “I look forward to working with both of you to further strengthen the special alliance between the U.S. and Israel,” he wrote.

    https://nypost.com/2020/11/08/israeli-pm-benjamin-netanyahu-congratulates-biden-on-win/

  419. 419
    orthomyxo says:

    What runs? You saying there runs of ballots in favour of Biden is not actually evidence of this claim.

    The cliff that Trump’s lead fell of is the rural-urban divide and the fact mail ballots overwhelming went to Biden. If PA had allowled workers to count mail ballots before election day the election whould have followed the same cycle seen in Ohio and other stataes with that approach: Biden would have got out to a huge lead, then the talleys would close as (and in that case of Ohio pass each other) as the election-day votes came in.

  420. 420
    orthomyxo says:

    Wow, I didn’ realise how far down this rabbit hole you have fallen until reading you most recent posts…

    Some of your claims:

    The TV station that ran the story about voter rolls in PA says the “screenshot” is not part of their story. It refers to a challenge to the roll in 2019 that was dropped because the group was happy that the roll was cleaned up. (the 1823 DOB was, of course, a typo).

    The 538 graphs you appear to be missing the red line underneat the blue one. Trump gained votes when Biden in WI, but the gap was enought for the blue line to fall overtop of the red one (this is clear when you look at the red point at the end of the line).

    The counting machine issue in Amtrin county was a very specific issue: the information about candidates in various elections was not updated, meaning votes were assigned to the wrong person. This was the result of a change in the ballot prior to electoin day in this county, and the fact the appropiate files were only updated for some (not all) races. Hardly something that is likely to be repeated across the state (or impart a bias to one party over another).

    It took less than 30 seconds to find the answers to these “questions”. I think you may need to step back from what ever conservative facebook group you are getting these memes from and look at the world a bit more skeptically.

  421. 421
    JVL says:

    “As the US presidential race went down to the wire, false or misleading posts on social media have been going viral.
    Some have been amplified by President Trump and his team, who have called into question the integrity of the vote.
    We’ve checked some of the main claims.”

    Included is the Michigan voter surge issue. Of course some of you have already decided what is true and what is not and will not accept new evidence or data which contradicts your view. That’s down to you.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54811410

  422. 422
    Mac McTavish says:

    KF

    the attempted pounce and pile on would be amusing if they were not in the end sad.

    Whenever more than one person disagrees with you, you dismiss it as a pike-on. That is sad.

    The cliffs are real. They are what took out the leads in multiple states. They need to be explained.

    Yet the only one you ace provided any evidence for, two images in your OP, has already been debunked as a typo that was identified and correct by the checks and balances that are in place to identify errors. The fact that you have not removed them from your OP speaks volumes.

    It is also to be noted that the vote count cliffs occur with different states. As is noted. That makes the there was this one glitch, fixed after 1/2 hr explanation less than adequate.

    Evidence please. Anecdotes do not count. The counts are recorded as they are read. This can be easily audited, as I’m sure will be done in due course.

    If I become good and satisfied that my different numbers and different images — the popups will be same place for same state, it is the numbers that count — are wrong, I will remove them. I am in no hurry at this time; there is a real world to address. In due course.

    The first image came from a tweet from a conservative who deleted it after finding out that it was simple human error and quickly corrected. The second image has two images; the one on the left is supposed to be a zoom in of the one on the right, but if you look at them closely, it is easy to see that they are not displaying the same data. That seriously calls into question the source of those plots.

  423. 423
    MatSpirit says:

    KF: “ And in this case we have an eyewitness observer who saw 16 k reportedly come in by truck 4 am, left 5 am them heard on news 7 am about 130 k. That eyewitness is key. Sorry, it does not vanish so neatly. “

    And I personally saw a videotape, one recommended on this thread, showing a van showing up at a vote counting place in the middle of the night and loading a package containing thousands of faked Biden ballots into a child’s wagon and wheeling them in to be counted.

    Except it turned out to be a tv camera man coming to work at the start of his shift, the “fake ballots” turned out to be his equipment, the wagon belonged to his kids and the damning videotape turned out to be shot (and narrated) by a Republican lawyer.

    Please tell us more about your witness. Who is he, what exactly did he say and where and when did the supposed chicanery he witnessed take place?

    It’s not that I don’t believe you, but you have a long history of giving full faith and credence to any report that tells you what you want to hear.

  424. 424
    Sandy says:

    Orthomyxo
    What runs? You saying there runs of ballots in favour of Biden is not actually evidence of this claim.

    The cliff that Trump’s lead fell of is the rural-urban divide and the fact mail ballots overwhelming went to Biden. If PA had allowled workers to count mail ballots before election day the election whould have followed the same cycle seen in Ohio and other stataes with that approach: Biden would have got out to a huge lead, then the talleys would close as (and in that case of Ohio pass each other) as the election-day votes came in.

    🙂 You try to rationalize about Biden’s ballots but why do you ignore the FACT that Biden’s party was restricting observers to same ballots? Do you see your cognitive dissonance? If all ballots were for Biden and legal why in the world Biden’s party would hide them from observers? Doesn’t make sense… 😉

  425. 425
    JVL says:

    No one is really sure where it comes from but:

    A lie can travel around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes.

    https://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/07/13/truth/

    I will wait ’til the evidence in fully in.

  426. 426
    kairosfocus says:

    In due course, though I note the OP already shows what the cliffs are for two different states; a third will join in due course. This is not my say-so or “anecdotes_ etc. The underlying reality to be faced is mail in voting is recklessly corrosive of the integrity of election systems and with ballot harvesting the setup is so conducive to fraud that it is tantamount to demonstrated intent. The vote cliffs tied to runs of votes are predictable. KF

  427. 427
    orthomyxo says:

    Sandy, if you have specific evidence please provide it. I’m guessing you are referring to Philadephia where a judge ordered observers had to be allowed closer than they previously were? This being the same Philadephia convention centre that live-streamed the canvas?

  428. 428
    JVL says:

    Sandy: ? You try to rationalize about Biden’s ballots but why do you ignore the FACT that Biden’s party was restricting observers to same ballots? Do you see your cognitive dissonance? If all ballots were for Biden and legal why in the world Biden’s party would hide them from observers? Doesn’t make sense… ?

    Are you sure of your facts? Several claims have been addressed and debunked. What makes you think you’re correct? And why are you not agnostic to those claims instead of being completely accepting? Why are you not promulgated the constitutional precept of presumed innocent until proven guilty?

  429. 429
    bornagain77 says:

    KF, take away quote from the article, “trust in the democratic process can only be restored if President Trump continues to fight against the fraud in open court until it reaches its conclusion—whatever that conclusion ends up being. If he fails at that, then there’s not much reason to put stock in elections that many of us believe to be fake.”
    In other words, it is not only for his presidency that Trump is fighting. It is the very integrity of America’s democratic process that Trump is fighting for.

    America Won’t Trust Elections Until The Voter Fraud Is Investigated
    If all the evidence of voter fraud is not investigated and properly accounted for, half of America will fervently believe that the election is a fraud no matter who ultimately wins. – NOVEMBER 8, 2020
    Excerpt: the evidence for that fraud is rapidly piling up. There has been eyewitness testimony about falsifying the postmarks on late mail-in ballots. Election observers were being harassed and kept away from the counting tables in Detroit. Software glitches have been discovered switching votes from Trump to Joe Biden in Michigan, and the same software is being used in other battleground states.
    There have been statistical anomalies like 90 percent voter turnout in Wisconsin and bizarre late-night vote spikes for Biden in several states. All of this evidence and more strongly suggest the Democrats and their media allies are indeed attempting to steal the election.,,,
    More Evidence This Year Than in 2000
    In 2020, the body of evidence eclipses that of 2000. Today, the confusion arises from half a dozen states rather than one. The reported incidents indicate outright fraud more than they do simple incompetence, especially since they all just happen to benefit the same candidate. Shouldn’t this evidence give us even more reason to investigate the matter than we had two decades ago?

    And if your memory doesn’t work that far back, you should at least remember 2016. A few Russian dollars spent on Facebook during the election and a highly questionable dossier were all it took to trigger FBI and congressional investigations into President Trump for years. There is far more evidence to justify an investigation into voter fraud in 2020.,,,
    If all the evidence of voter fraud is not investigated and properly accounted for, half of America will fervently believe that the election is a fraud no matter who ultimately wins. It is a critical problem if half of a democratic nation has insufficient trust in its electoral institutions to believe the presidential election was legitimate.,,,
    The only way out of this mess is to publicly investigate voter fraud and carry that investigation to its proper conclusion—towards either clear proof or a clear inability to find proof. Either all the evidence of fraud will be accounted for in a way that proves most of it to be benign, or it will prove the guilt of those involved. If the latter, then a lot of people will need to go to prison before we can trust our referees again. All this will need to be done so publicly and satisfactorily that most Americans will believe the problem of voter fraud is fixed.
    This cannot be accomplished by Facebook and Twitter shutting down the conversation. This cannot be accomplished by archaic media organizations that have squandered their public trust and esteem declaring a winner. It cannot even be accomplished by each individual’s preferred gaggle of new media sources, for America needs something that transcends individual preference.
    Right now, trust in the democratic process can only be restored if President Trump continues to fight against the fraud in open court until it reaches its conclusion—whatever that conclusion ends up being. If he fails at that, then there’s not much reason to put stock in elections that many of us believe to be fake. In that scenario, America will eventually find other ways of governing herself.
    https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/08/america-wont-trust-elections-until-the-voter-fraud-is-investigated/#.X6hVdEP5Aag.twitter

    Wise words in a not so wise time!

  430. 430
    JVL says:

    Kairosfocus:The underlying reality to be faced is mail in voting is recklessly corrosive of the integrity of election systems and with ballot harvesting the setup is so conducive to fraud that it is tantamount to demonstrated intent. The vote cliffs tied to runs of votes are predictable.

    The US military personnel have been utilising mail-in voting for decades. And no one complained or cast aspersions on it. President Trump himself voted early via some such method. Why would he do that if he thought it was a corrupt system?

    Anyway, potential weaknesses are not proof that they were exploited.

    And all this from someone who is not a US citizen or had a legal right to vote in the US elections.

  431. 431
    JVL says:

    Bornagain77: https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/08/america-wont-trust-elections-until-the-voter-fraud-is-investigated/#.X6hVdEP5Aag.twitter

    Have you checked on some of those links? At least one is to a YouTube video. Several are to other stories on The Federalist website. Show me one that points to a separate, independent, credible source with no skin in the game. If you’re about the evidence then please provide it.

  432. 432
    MatSpirit says:

    KF: “ The cliffs are real. They are what took out the leads in multiple states. They need to be explained.”

    It’s been explained to you several times already. Trump spent several months claiming that mail-in voting (which he personally uses) is hopelessly corrupt and telling all of his supporters to vote in person. Biden supporters, on the other hand, noticed that America is in the middle of a highly transmissive pandemic that has already killed twice as many Americans as all of WWI and chose to vote by mail.

    The mail-in ballots were thus overwhelmingly Democratic and in places where they were counted last, they provided the Democratic surge that caught up to and surpassed the Putin candidate.

    But that’s not what you want to hear, so I doubt if you’ll believe it. Just like Trump.

  433. 433
    kairosfocus says:

    JVL (& attn MS), please. The conflation of the two is similar to cheese vs chalk. Absentee voting has well known built in safeguards that have been insistently compromised. KF

  434. 434
    Mac McTavish says:

    KF

    In due course, though I note the OP already shows what the cliffs are for two different states;

    My apologies. I didn’t notice that the two images at the 3rd addendum of the OP were from two states. However, the one on the right is showing the same data as displayed in addendum two for Michigan. This has already been debunked. But I have serious questions about the Wisconsin plot. Why does the Trump curve stop whereas the Biden curve continues. Maybe if you provided a link to your source we could decipher it in context.

    a third will join in due course. This is not my say-so or “anecdotes_ etc.

    Until you provide actual evidence, with links to the source, I’m afraid that it is.

    The underlying reality to be faced is mail in voting is recklessly corrosive of the integrity of election systems and with ballot harvesting the setup is so conducive to fraud that it is tantamount to demonstrated intent.

    I understand your opinion, but you are completely ignoring the checks and balances in place to ensure integrity, including reviewing ballots in pairs, monitoring of the counting, chain of custody on the ballots, random auditing of the ballots, checking scanned numbers agains reported numbers, checking if ballots against voter list and whether a ballot has already been submitted for that person, independent review of questionable ballots, recounts, etc.

    Can fraud occur in mail-in ballots? Of course. As it can with in-person voting. But to make the jump from small scale fraud, as occurs with every election, to organized, widespread fraud is just reckless and unjustified. But if I were going to organize a fraud to support I think I am sure that I would also ensure that he won a majority in both houses.

    The vote cliffs tied to runs of votes are predictable. KF

    I don’t understand what you are implying here.

  435. 435
    bornagain77 says:

    JVL, look at my posts at 268, 270, 293, 329, 337, 373,

    For instance, The end of this video (that KF provided) is very telling, and sobering, as to the over to top shenanigans that the democrats were up to,

    “This Felt Like a Drug Deal!” – Asian-American Ballot Observer in Detroit Describes Mysterious Van Dropping Off 61 Boxes of Ballots at 4 AM (VIDEO)
    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/11/felt-like-drug-deal-asian-american-ballot-observer-detroit-describes-mysterious-van-dropping-off-61-boxes-ballots-4-video/

    Which underscores the point of the Federalist article (an article that you unfairly disparaged).,,,, trust in US elections is over for 1/2 the population unless these reports of widespread abuse by democrats are fairly, and judiciously, dealt with.

    To repeat the take away quote from the article,

    “trust in the democratic process can only be restored if President Trump continues to fight against the fraud in open court until it reaches its conclusion—whatever that conclusion ends up being. If he fails at that, then there’s not much reason to put stock in elections that many of us believe to be fake.”

    Of course I don’t expect the atheists here on UD to support that, (since they obviously could care less about integrity) but I would certainly hope that the average Democrats in America, in the general population, would certainly agree that maintaining trust in the integrity in our electoral process is of paramount importance.

    I would demand the same if the shoe were on the other foot.

    Whereas I can easily see why atheists here on UD would oppose that. They simply lack honesty, honor, and integrity. Much less do they truly love America.

  436. 436
    kairosfocus says:

    U/D: I have just amended the earlier image on vote cliffs, i/l/o aspects of information at Snokes and further information.

    It remains the case that vote cliffs apparently connected to mail-in votes are a real phenomenon and one fundamentally corrosive to sound election systems; note the fresh case in PA. Conflation of such mail in novelties with traditional absentee ballots should be corrected.

    Having said such, I further note in warning.

    The issue now at stake is not, whatever will come out of the court challenges and lawfare (thus, who will be sworn in as President come Jan 21 or so); confidence in the courts has long been in decline with the legislation of the holocaust of living posterity in the womb from the bench and sustaining this horror decade after decade as a major trigger point.

    No, the issue is disaffection, due to the pattern of behaviour of the elites for a long time, now reaching reckless undermining of the integrity of elections with the introduction of third party ballot harvesting being tantamount to intent to cheat.

    If the US were some backwater country I would shrug and hope for the best. But that failure of governance will have consequences for the world.

    BA77 is right to raise the alarm.

    The next 14 months will show some of the force of this matter.

    The time for Trump bashing agit prop and pretence that all is so wonderfully well with marxist notions and that to imagine the declared intent to rewrite the US Constitutional framework at pleasure is the smart thing to go, will soon enough run out.

    Playing recklessly with fire . . .

    Lucy has pulled the football one too many times.

    KF

  437. 437
    daveS says:

    KF,

    Do you still maintain that there are runs of Biden votes, length on the order of ~10,000?

    Edit: That one in Michigan seems to have been debunked. I’d like to know if there are still other specific instances that have yet to be explained.

  438. 438
    rhampton7 says:

    “I just talked to the President-elect of the United States, Joe Biden,” Bush, a Republican, said in a statement Sunday. “I extended my warm congratulations and thanked him for the patriotic message he delivered last night.”

    Bush said he also called Harris to congratulate her on her historic election as vice president.

    “Though we have political differences, I know Joe Biden to be a good man, who has won his opportunity to lead and unify our country,” Bush said. “The president-elect reiterated that while he ran as a Democrat, he will govern for all Americans. I offered him the same thing I offered Presidents Trump and Obama: my prayers for his success, and my pledge to help in any way I can.”

    The only living former Republican president also congratulated President Donald Trump and his supporters “on a hard-fought campaign.”

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/08/george-w-bush-offers-congratulations-president-elect-joe-biden/6204399002/

  439. 439
    rhampton7 says:

    But senior officials, campaign aides and allies told The Associated Press that overwhelming evidence of fraud isn’t really the point.

    The strategy to wage a legal fight against the votes tallied for Biden in Pennsylvania and other places is more to provide Trump with an off-ramp for a loss he can’t quite grasp and less about changing the election’s outcome, the officials said. They spoke to AP on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal strategy.

    Trump aides and allies also acknowledged privately the legal fights would — at best – forestall the inevitable, and some had deep reservations about the president’s attempts to undermine faith in the vote. But they said Trump and a core group of loyalists were aiming to keep his base of supporters on his side even in defeat.

    Even Trump’s own administration has pushed back at the claims of widespread voter fraud and illegal voting though it didn’t mention Trump was the one making the allegations. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the federal agency that oversees U.S. election security, also noted local election offices have detection measures that “make it highly difficult to commit fraud through counterfeit ballots.”

    Top election officials in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada – both Republican and Democrat – have all said they see no widespread voting irregularities, no major instances of fraud or illegal activity.

    “Nothing that I’ve seen regarding the election raises a legal issue that could succeed. There is just is nothing there,” said Barry Richard, who represented George W. Bush in the 2000 recount in Florida that ended up before the U.S. Supreme Court. “When these kind of lawsuits are filed it just breeds contempt for the whole legal system,” he said.

    https://wilknews.radio.com/articles/ap-news/fraud-claims-aimed-in-part-at-keeping-trump-base-loyal

  440. 440
    kairosfocus says:

    BA77, I think you will find this tweet thread to be food for thought. KF

  441. 441
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, kindly look at the adjusted image in the OP, esp the orange highlighted text. KF

  442. 442
    rhampton7 says:

    #PROTECT2020 RUMOR VS. REALITY

    Mis- and Disinformation can undermine public confidence in the electoral process, as well as in our democracy.

    A message from the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director

    https://youtu.be/W1gjutx4w6U

    This webpage is for people with questions about the security of their vote and preemptively debunks potential areas for disinformation. You can learn more about mis- and disinformation from CISA’s Countering Foreign Influence Task Force.

    https://www.cisa.gov/rumorcontrol

  443. 443
    orthomyxo says:

    KF, have you looked the WI “vote cliff” line graph? Do you see the red dot sticking out just under the blue dot? do you get how desperate you sound when the best evidence you have for fraud is the way layers are stacked in a jpeg?

  444. 444
    rhampton7 says:

    as the Trump campaign mounts a slew of lawsuits, the major legal minds and firms that fueled Bush’s victory in 2000 are staying on the sidelines – or even mocking Trump’s efforts from afar.

    “It was entirely different from now, when there basically is no problem – and nobody looking at it legitimately, including a lot of Republicans, thinks there is a problem,” said Barry Richard, who was lead counsel in the courtroom in Florida for Bush in the 2000 case. “There’s no problem that’s a defect of the ballots, or that’s any kind of fraud. It’s kind of a manufactured issue.”

    Benjamin Ginsberg, national counsel for the Bush campaign in 2000 and 2004, said Trump’s legal strategy has been an “unusual” and “remarkably innovative” effort to litigate the election results.

    And Don McGahn, who was appointed by Bush to the Federal Election Commission in 2008 and later served as White House counsel in the Trump administration, quipped Wednesday that “you need a legal violation to go to court.”

    “These are desperation moves by a person who sees litigation as just another tool of doing business,” Richard said. “I don’t think any of this litigation is going to go anywhere.”

    Several major firms that have traditionally worked with the Republican Party and its candidates have been involved this year. But at this stage, the most prominent Republican election lawyers have kept their distance.

    “A lot of them often don’t want to have Trump as a client because of the way he talks – the way he creates new evidence every day that they might find inconvenient when they’ve got to argue before a judge. That’s not, from how I remember, how Bush acted in Bush v. Gore,” said Walter Olson, senior fellow at the Cato Institute’s Center for Constitutional Studies.

    https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article246998767.html

  445. 445
    daveS says:

    KF,

    Thanks. I’m going to predict that in the end, no runs even of length 1000 will be substantiated.

  446. 446
    rhampton7 says:

    Ilya Shapiro
    @ishapiro
    Congratulations, Mr. President-elect. You won a tough, fair fight. Please don’t push executive power past constitutional limits even beyond what your predecessors have done. And you don’t get more power when Congress doesn’t act, even on _really_ important things.

    ——

    Ilya Shapiro is the director of the Robert A. Levy Center for Constitutional Studies at the Cato Institute and publisher of the Cato Supreme Court Review. Before joining Cato, he was a special assistant/?adviser to the Multi??National Force in Iraq on rule??of??law issues and practiced at Patton Boggs and Cleary Gottlieb.

    Shapiro is the author of Supreme Disorder: Judicial Nominations and the Politics of America’s Highest Court (2020), co??author of Religious Liberties for Corporations? Hobby Lobby, the Affordable Care Act, and the Constitution (2014), and editor of 11 volumes of the Cato Supreme Court Review (2008–18).

  447. 447
    bornagain77 says:

    Thanks KF, this at the end made me smile:

    We went from 4 years of Russia rigged the election, to elections can’t be rigged really fast didn’t we???

  448. 448
  449. 449
    bornagain77 says:

    Sandy,

    OH MY WORD! Besides Soros, Feinstein and Pelosi, Clinton’s name is also associated with Dominion!

    Clinton Global Initiative
    The DELIAN Project: Democracy through Technology

    Commitment by DELIAN Project
    In 2014, Dominion Voting committed to providing emerging and post-conflict democracies with access to voting technology through its philanthropic support to the DELIAN Project, as many emerging democracies suffer from post-electoral violence due to the delay in the publishing of election results. Over the next three years, Dominion Voting will support election technology pilots with donated Automated Voting Machines (AVM), providing an improved electoral process, and therefore safer elections. ,,,,
    https://www.clintonfoundation.org/clinton-global-initiative/commitments/delian-project-democracy-through-technology

    Per Wayne Baird on Facebook

    “The software is from Avid Technologies Inc. and Richard C. Blum is the owner.. And is Dianne Feinstein’s Husband..”,,, “Dominion Smartmantics board member Mark Malloch-Brown (direct ties to Soros through Open Society); and company hired lobbyists who assigned former Nancy Pelosi chief of staff to account (Nadeam Elshami). This rabbit hole is deep and dark!”

    The Dominion software is used in 30 states including all of the battleground states that are contested

    https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=10119126018497494&set=pcb.10119126021830814

  450. 450
    rhampton7 says:

    Southern Baptist leader Albert Mohler has urged Christians to refrain from making “generalized charges of voter fraud” while votes are counted in the presidential race, warning that such allegations will be “dangerous to America as a nation.”

    “Americans should be agreed that every single vote of every single citizen should be counted,” Mohler said during Thursday’s edition of The Briefing. “Furthermore, we must believe that an election isn’t over until every single vote of every single citizen, rightly and lawfully cast, is counted. And that means also that every single American citizen should be unsatisfied if there is any question about the actual veracity of the voting process.”

    But on Thursday, Mohler argued that while “President Trump has pointed to what he considers to be election irregularities,” there is “no serious credible concern” about voting irregularity “that is a matter of public record.”

    Claiming voter fraud without concrete evidence, Mohler said, can put the country’s existence in danger.

    “It can happen and it has happened,” he said, referencing fraud during the 1960 election, “but making generalized charges of voter fraud without specifics that can be investigated, that’s quite dangerous to America as a nation.”

    Mohler, who voted for Trump in the 2020 election, warned that if Americans “continue to argue the elections indefinitely,” “there is no future for this Republic.”

    https://www.christianpost.com/news/al-mohler-warns-against-making-charges-of-voter-fraud.html

  451. 451
    bornagain77 says:

    Mohler,,, warned that if Americans “continue to argue the elections indefinitely,” “there is no future for this Republic.”

    ^^^^^^^^^^ HA!

    If the election was rigged, as is increasing apparent, “there is no future for this Republic.”

    But hey, I can see where atheists, who would rather we live in a one party Venezuela, would be trying to hide fraud and not want the matter cleared up to everybody’s satisfaction.

  452. 452
    Sandy says:

    If this is true I’m beginning to believe Trump has done a sting operation. All pieces fall in place.
    https://youtu.be/2hI73AprGs4

  453. 453
    daveS says:

    Sandy,

    I think you’re just toying with these guys. 🙂

  454. 454
    rhampton7 says:

    For months, Trump normalized the idea that this election would be illegitimate, Jankowicz said. Now that he has lost, the rhetoric mail-in ballots aren’t secure is starting to “bear fruit,” she said. People are ready to believe there was massive fraud, she said.

    However, within the election process there are “fail safes everywhere,” said Robert Brandon, founder of the Fair Elections Center.

    “If there’s a question at all, there’s a Republican and a Democratic or opposing candidate’s representatives who are part of the counting system,” he told USA Today. “These are not the observers that stand aside and look around. These are the people that actually decide … if there’s a questionable ballot, what did the voter intend. And if they agree, then it goes forward.”

    https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/08/election-misinformation-michigan-vote-antrim-county/6209693002/

  455. 455
    rhampton7 says:

    BA77

    Albert Mohler is the direct opposite of an autocratic atheist. Now that’s another apology you owe.

  456. 456
    ET says:

    Of course foreign government will like Joe Biden. He is by far more gullible than President Trump. And he is ready, willing and able to cuts deals that will benefit those foreign governments to the detriment of the US workers. And we already know he is a big fan of quid pro quo.

  457. 457

    It doesn’t matter what anyone says outside of the court. What matters is the evidence and the law. The law will be argued and the evidence shown in court. Nothing said here, in the media, by public figures, by other countries, or by anyone else will change that. It’s up to the courts.

  458. 458
    bornagain77 says:

    RH7, do luv himself some left wing spin.

    It is not as if the mail ballots did actually not cause the havoc that Trump warned about, ,,, So the left wing takes his warning of what actually came to pass as example that HE was the one causing the havoc????

    Shsssh, you got to be some kind of dumb to believe left wing spin.

  459. 459
    rhampton7 says:

    Antrim County, Michigan, a Republican stronghold, initially showed Biden winning but now says Trump was the victor there, according to the Detroit Free Press. (See Dominion’s Michigan contract here https://www.michigan.gov/documents/sos/071B7700117_Dominion_555356_7.pdf)

    The newspaper reported that the county clerk “failed to update election management system software used to combine the electronic totals from tabulators and submit a report of unofficial results,” causing the issue.

    Dominion has a fact page that seeks to debunk viral rumors about its software. “All U.S. voting systems must provide assurance that they work accurately and reliably as intended under federal U.S. Election Assistance Commission and state certification and testing requirements,” the company insisted.

    “There are no credible reports or evidence of any system software errors in Georgia or Michigan, including erroneous reporting of unofficial results from Antrim County, Michigan,” the company wrote in a press release.

    Jocelyn Benson, the Secretary of State in Michigan, released a lengthy statement on what happened in Antrim.

    “The error in reporting unofficial results in Antrim County Michigan was the result of a user error that was quickly identified and corrected; did not affect the way ballots were actually tabulated; and would have been identified in the county canvass before official results were reported even if it had not been identified earlier,” she wrote.

    She confirmed that Antrim County “uses the Dominion Voting Systems election management system and voting machines (tabulators), which count hand-marked paper ballots. Counties use election management systems to program tabulators and also to report unofficial election results.”

    She also wrote:

    After Antrim County initially programmed its election software for the November Election, the county identified in October two local races where the ballot content had to be updated. The county received updated programming from its election programming vendor, Election Source. The updated programming correctly updated the election software for the county. When the software was reprogrammed, the County also had to update the software on all of the media drives that are placed in tabulators to ensure tabulators communicate properly with the election management system. The county did update the media drives that went into the tabulators with the corrected local races, but did not update the media drives on the tabulators for the rest of the county. Because the Clerk correctly updated the media drives for the tabulators with changes to races, and because the other tabulators did not have changes to races, all tabulators counted ballots correctly. However, because the county did not update the media drives for the tabulators that did nothave changes to races, those tabulators did not communicate properly with the County’s central election management system software when the county combined and reported unofficial results. Every tabulator recorded ballots correctly but the unofficial reports were erroneous. These errors can always be identified and corrected because every tabulator prints a paper totals tape showing how the ballots for each race were counted. After discovering the error in reporting the unofficial results, the clerk worked diligently to report correct unofficial results by reviewing the printed totals tape on each tabulator and hand-entering the results for each race, for each precinct in the county. Again, all ballots were properly tabulated. The user error affected only how the results from the tabulators communicated with the election management system for unofficial reporting. Even if the error had not been noticed and quickly fixed, it would have been caught and identified

    https://heavy.com/news/dominion-voting-systems-glitch-clinton-pelosi-michigan-georgia/

  460. 460
    bornagain77 says:

    RH7, LOL, tell you what, I’ll apologize to you after you get banned for trolling.

  461. 461
    bornagain77 says:

    Sidney Powell: People with links to powerful Democrats using Dominion voting machines to ‘steal’ votes
    by Joseph Simonson & Daniel Chaitin – November 08, 2020
    Excerpt: Former federal prosecutor Sidney Powell accused a leading voting machine firm of stealing votes from President Trump.
    Powell, the lead attorney for retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, who is helping Trump’s legal effort in the 2020 election, said on Sunday that people with links to top Democrats are using Dominion Voting Systems to commit “fraud” on elections. She did not present any evidence to support her claims.
    Mentioned during a Fox News interview by host Maria Bartiromo were Nadeam Elshami, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s former chief of staff who last year became a lobbyist for Dominion, and Richard Blum, California Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s husband, who she said is a significant shareholder in the company.
    “They have invested in it for their own reasons and are using it to commit this fraud to steal votes. I think they’ve even stolen them from other Democrats in their own party who should be outraged about this also,” Powell said.
    The attorney also suggested that Dominion had a hand in tilting the primaries in Joe Biden’s favor. “Bernie Sanders might very well have been the democratic candidate but they’ve stolen against whoever they wanted to steal it from,” Powell said.
    Dominion did not immediately return a request for comment on Powell’s claims.
    The company, which has a lock on a third of the voting machine market according to Bloomberg, has faced scrutiny in the past couple of days with voting problems reported in parts of Michigan and Georgia, although the company and local officials have discounted the idea that the software was to blame.
    Dominion has customers in 28 states and Puerto Rico, including all of the battleground states where Trump and his allies are contesting and pinning their hopes on recounts after media outlets called the presidential race for Biden.
    Earlier in the show, Powell said at least 450,000 ballots have been identified in key states that “miraculously” only have a mark for Biden and no other candidate down-ballot. She also claimed GOP Senate candidates in Georgia and Michigan had their races “stolen” from them and argued that recounts and audits are needed in most places across the country.
    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/sidney-powell-people-with-links-to-powerful-democrats-using-dominion-voting-machines-to-steal-votes

    And again, besides Feinstein and Pelosi, we also have Soros and Clinton’s names popping up in association with Dominion.

    Like I said earlier, the only way it could get any more suspicious for Dominion is if you throw in Chuck Schumer and Adam Schiff’s names

  462. 462
    Sandy says:

    DaveS
    I think you’re just toying with these guys. ?

    Don’t worry another 4 years of Trump won’t hurt leftists feelings . I hope no one believed Trump would not prepare a honeypot for democrats.

  463. 463
    rhampton7 says:

    BA77,

    You don’t need to apologize to me, but to Erick Erickson and Albert Mohler. You blatantly mischaracterized their beliefs and integrity.

  464. 464
    rhampton7 says:

    In order to stop the schism from turning into a complete divide, with the danger of ongoing civil strife and violence, a deliberate healing process involving reconciliation must begin with a change in the basic style and content of the rhetoric that was introduced by President Donald Trump when he started running for President over four years ago.

    The belligerent, licentious rhetoric that does not distinguish between the truth and falsehood, badmouths critics, mocks the disabled and imperfect, must be replaced by a calmer, more restrained and civilized style of rhetoric that tries to build bridges and create alliances, and accepts the legitimacy and rights of “the other,” with very few exceptions defined by the law.

    The sweeping use of the term “fake news” that includes every piece of critical or displeasing news, even if perfectly true and accompanied by verified facts, and extreme derogatory descriptions of rivals and critics must stop.

    Naturally, in Israel we are especially concerned with the future policy of the new administration toward Israel and the Middle East, after four years of being pampered by a president who was exceptionally friendly toward us. However, I believe we should wish President-Elect Biden much success in his expected efforts to contend with the social schism in the United States, a problem we are all too familiar with here in Israel, and must sooner or later also start to address.

    https://www.jpost.com/opinion/biden-faces-challenges-dealing-with-schism-in-american-society-opinion-648447

  465. 465
    bornagain77 says:

    RH7, in case you are not aware, I am not very impressed with many ‘religious leaders’ of today.

    After all, the religious leaders of Jesus’s day were the ones who orchestrated the mock trial and crucifixion of Jesus.

    For instance of today, I find the Pope’s position on many things to be of a left wing political bias instead of any firm Christian principle.

    As to Mohler rolling over and caving to ‘political correctness’, well that certainly does not sit well with the Christian principle of doing everything you can to stand firm in the face of unrighteousness does it?

    Ephesians 6
    12For our struggle is not against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the authorities, against the powers of this world’s darkness, and against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly realms. 13Therefore take up the full armor of God, so that when the day of evil comes, you will be able to stand your ground, and having done everything, to stand.

  466. 466
    bornagain77 says:

    KF, this might interest you: (Of note, Sidney Powell, i.e. Flynn’s attorney, has recently mentioned this program on TV)

    Excerpt: Montgomery became a whistleblower upon seeing first hand how the Obama administration had turned THE HAMMER against America. Montgomery received two limited immunity agreements from the DOJ and the FBI in exchange for evidence production and testimony.
    Montgomery originally designed and built THE HAMMER in 2003 as a foreign surveillance system to protect America after 9/11.
    “THE HAMMER IS THE KEY TO THE COUP” — Admiral James A. “Ace” Lyons, On His Death Bed, Speaking To His Longtime Friend, Lt. Gen. Thomas McInerney
    They stole a super-surveillance government tool for foreign surveillance and they turned it against America and are using it to steal the Presidential election of 2020.
    * CIA contractor Dennis Montgomery built THE HAMMER in 2003 as a foreign surveillance tool to keep America safe from terrorists after 9/11 and to protect U.S. troops on the battlefield.
    * Robert Mueller’s FBI provided the computers for THE HAMMER.
    * THE HAMMER foreign surveillance system featured multiple echelons of safeguards and sign-offs to prevent U.S. personnel, up to and including the President of the United States, from using the system for unlawful domestic surveillance.
    * On February 3, 2009, two weeks after President Obama’s inauguration, Brennan and Clapper moved THE HAMMER to a secret CIA facility in Fort Washington, Maryland.
    *After Dennis Montgomery saw Brennan and Clapper commandeer THE HAMMER foreign surveillance tool and transform it into a domestic surveillance system for blackmail and leverage, Montgomery became a whistleblower.
    * In 2013, Dennis Montgomery alerted multiple officials in Washington D.C. that THE HAMMER was being used to conduct illegal domestic surveillance. Montgomery even sent faxes to President Obama and Vice President Biden to alert them about the ongoing illegal domestic surveillance.
    * Brennan and Clapper used THE HAMMER to spy on Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts, Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, 156 Article III judges, FISA Court Presiding Judge Reggie Walton, Members of Congress, Wall Street executives, Rudy Giuliani, Lt. General Michael Flynn, Donald Trump, Trump Tower, multiple Trump businesses, and members of the Trump family. Brennan and Clapper spied on Donald Trump because the CIA feared Trump. Brennan and Clapper wiretapped Donald Trump “a zillion times.”
    * The Obama Whitehouse could access THE HAMMER at will through an encrypted VPN.
    * In August 2015, Dennis Montgomery, under a limited immunity agreement, provided FBI General Counsel James Baker and FBI Director James Comey with 47 computer hard drives of evidence proving that Brennan and Clapper had used THE HAMMER to conduct illegal domestic surveillance. Included on the 47 hard drives was 10,000 pages of documents regarding Hunter Biden.
    * In December 2015, Dennis Montgomery, under a second limited immunity agreement, provided the FBI and the DOJ with sworn testimony about THE HAMMER and the contents of the 47 hard drives.
    * THE HAMMER framework could throw multiple exploit applications. The Obama team used a HAMMER application called SCORECARD to steal the 2012 presidential election in Florida.
    * The Biden campaign is using SCORECARD to steal the 2020 presidential election (they have NOT turned off THE HAMMER).
    https://www.worldviewweekend.com/radio/audio/brannon-howse-november-4-2020

  467. 467
    Mac McTavish says:

    BA77

    For instance of today, I find the Pope’s position on many things to be of a left wing political bias instead of any firm Christian principle.

    I agree. His stance on homosexuality and same sex unions is destroying the institution of marriage. I told my husband that just last night. 🙂

  468. 468
    Mac McTavish says:

    Humorous poem from The Atlantic

    [SNIP-vulgarity, this is a last warning]

  469. 469
    bornagain77 says:

    Mac, although you, as a homosexual, may find it particularly humorous that the Pope is quote unquote, “destroying the institution of marriage”, that is exactly my point. i.e. “I find the Pope’s position on many things to be of a left wing political bias instead of any firm Christian principle.”

    Sure, one can find any one of a number of liberal Christian churches nowadays that will perform homosexual marriages, but that still does not make homosexual marriage a Christian doctrine. Far from it. The fact of the matter is that Christianity itself is now, and has always been, explicit that marriage is to be between one man and one woman. Moreover, that definition of marriage has deep Theological, even spiritual, significance.

    What Does the Bible Say about Marriage?
    In summary, we can see that Scripture tells us marriage is an intimate and complementing union between a man and a woman in which the two become one physically, in the whole of life. God’s purpose of marriage is to reflect the relationship of the Godhead and to serve him. Although the fall has marred the divine purpose and function of marriage, this definition reflects the God-ordained ideal for marriage from the beginning.
    https://www.crosswalk.com/family/marriage/relationships/what-does-the-bible-say-about-marriage.html

    Thus, it is clear that the Pope is holding, in regards to homosexual marriage, a left wing political bias instead of any firm Christian principle.

    Despite the fact that the Pope may tailor his personal beliefs to the blowing winds of political correctness, the Bible is far less flexible in its definition of marriage.

    Indeed, any Church that molds itself to the changing whims of society is not really being a Church at all. The Church is called to a moral compass for a society. Not an enabler of the immoral behavior of a society.

    If a society finds itself out of line with the clear teachings of the Bible, then it is the society itself that must change, or somehow be changed. It is certainly not the Bible that must change in order to suit the whims of society.

    To think otherwise is to have a very distorted view of what Christianity is all about. Namely, saving sinners from their sin, not condoning, even cheerleading, the sinful behavior of sinners.

    2 TIMOTHY 4:3
    For the time will come when they will not endure the sound doctrine; but, having itching ears, will heap to themselves teachers after their own lusts;

    Romans 1
    32 Although they know God’s righteous decree that those who do such things deserve death, they not only continue to do these very things but also approve of those who practice them.

  470. 470
    kairosfocus says:

    Ortho, if it has not registered that the primary evidence is the insistent undermining of the integrity of elections over several months and setting up what had to be known to be open invitation to fraud (as was linked several times — respond substantially please), I cannot help you. The rest is the predictable, sad result. The developing whistleblowing from the post office simply shows one strand of the predictable result. Where, I am saddened as I ponder the likely playout in coming months, not “desperate” — a cheap rhetorical shot not worth the bits wasted to take it. Long runs of votes for select candidates, often with no votes further down the slate, are another signature. (Kindly see the review of concerns here, too. I add, the Chinese observer’s testimony: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUtTuekWb8Q&feature=emb_logo ) And, the even sadder thing is that literally for decades it has been clear that election systems were sub-standard. Please ponder why they manifestly would not pass benchmarking against what a coop bank does to manage cash and accounts. That, too, is willful; especially as it is commonly known that election chicanery decided the 1960 election and created chaos in 2000 . . . notice the trick of cherry-picked demanded recounts? However, it seems things are headed to the courts and that is what will bring out the issues more substantially, one way or the other. Lucy got into the habit of pulling the football, this looks like one time too many. KF

  471. 471
    kairosfocus says:

    PS: As a reminder, a screen shot from 2000 is now going in the OP, the last time an election seriously went into court-chaos mode. If there are significant legal, election integrity concerns, complaints that he won’t concede are little more than further disrespect for sound process. And with all respect Dr Mohler, the US has been reduced through McFaul colour revolution tactics to a 4th gen shadows civil war. Like a genie let out of the bottle, such has a life of its own and those who stoked polarisation, violence and a climate of ruthless accusation, twisting of laws and procedures to demonise and try to discredit others, need to recognise they threw the first punch. If I had to pin point, I would point to three years of groundless accusations of treason turning on scurrilous opposition research and the fiasco of accusations Justice Kavanaugh was subjected to. (And no, I don’t recall those now demanding more and more evidence — as if any amount would ever suffice for such — standing up here at UD to defend those subjected to blatant defamatory media lynchings and abuse of Congress. Indeed, one of the objectors above directly alludes to the Steele dossier hoax.)

  472. 472
    kairosfocus says:

    MMT, I snipped that poem for vulgarity. You know better and have been warned. There will be no further warnings. KF

  473. 473
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: I have got the Chinese election observer’s testimony to embed in the OP. KF

  474. 474
    bornagain77 says:

    KF, this following line of evidence may break even bigger yet, (and it, given the hostility of the Intel agency to the sitting Pres., certainly would not surprise if it did)

    BREAKING: “Operation Scorecard” CIA-run vote theft software was running in EVERY swing state… “glitches” switched votes from Trump to Biden
    https://www.dcclothesline.com/2020/11/07/breaking-operation-scorecard-cia-run-vote-theft-software-was-running-in-every-swing-state-glitches-switched-votes-from-trump-to-biden/

    Excerpt last paragraph:
    “This covert technology is called Operation Scorecard, and it was built by the CIA to surreptitiously steal elections in targeted countries. Now, that technology is being turned against the United States of America and is about to be activated on Tuesday to steal the election for Biden, explains Janda’s guest.

    YouTube banned the interview, but others uploaded it to Brighteon.com, so you can watch it here:

    https://www.brighteon.com/37f33814-f323-4c7a-9f19-90588161b4fd

  475. 475
    Sandy says:

    Bornagain77
    For instance of today, I find the Pope’s position on many things to be of a left wing political bias instead of any firm Christian principle.

    :)What happens with pope’s positions confirm again Wikileaks ,pope was “elected” by soros not by Catholic Church and secondly we discover from leaked emails that climate change is a political coup to impose a totalitarian regime by economic means. Pope is a lover of “climate change” agenda.
    https://newspunch.com/wikileaks-soros-vatican-coup/
    https://fromrome.info/2018/12/18/the-vatican-coup-detat-of-feb-2013/

    pope delivers soros truth not God’s truth.

    Podesta wikileaks emails
    “There needs to be a “Catholic Spring”, in which Catholics themselves demand the end of a middle ages dictatorship and the beginning of a little democracy and respect for gender equality in the Catholic church,” wrote Sandy Newman, president of progressive organization Voices for Progress, in the first of two emails in the February 2012 exchange. “

    in 2013 new pope elected after previous pope was “convinced” to resign(first to resign since 1400)

    Nothing to see here. 🙂

  476. 476
    orthomyxo says:

    Where did the “screenshot”of the 2000 election come from? The map is hasa lot of states called incorrectly and Gore was never called the winner of the election. So, I’m pretty sure you’ve fallen for another fake…

  477. 477
    kairosfocus says:

    Ortho, were you there then? Gore was called winner in some media houses eager for scoops even BEFORE the voting was truly finished, esp for FL. That led to the point that it suppressed voting in Central time zone counties; arguably, some Bush supporters were discouraged to vote late in the day there as it was perceived to be useless. The Gore win was projected on the media inference on exit polling that he would win FL; but then the actual count narrowly gave to Bush, then the Democrats pushed for a selective recount. IIRC, after this there was a debate on media pushing to scoop on winner and need to back off on premature calling. Gore looked the likely winner on recount, then boom Bush went to court. There was shock that he would. The issue was the hanging, dimpled chad recount that was picked for certain FL counties, I believe there was also less emphasised concern on not counting some military, absentee votes. All of this then ended up at Supreme Court, which on seeing its fundamental undermining of election integrity stopped the count. This gave to Bush, the election, quite narrowly. The onward rhetoric was he was voted into office by 7 people so he was not legitimately elected, which did not go away until there was a silencing of usual debates in the immediate aftermath of 9/11. Onward of course, Bush was manifestly unfairly demonised and scapegoated; from the L mainly, but also from the R. I think, post office he has drifted L on the conventional, flawed scale. KF

    PS: Unlike the material gaps in the Wikipedia narrative — which can here be termed irresponsible and perhaps willfully misleading, here is history dot com:

    After a wild election night on November 7, 2000, during which TV networks first called the key state of Florida for Gore, [–> got that?] then for Bush, followed by a concession by Gore that was soon rescinded [–> got that too?], the results for who would be the nation’s 43rd president were simply too close to call.

    In the 36 days that followed, Americans learned Gore had won the popular vote by 543,895 votes. But it’s winning the Electoral College that counts. [–> because it balances big and small state interests in a federated republic that is a union of states in their own right not mere provinces of a unitary state] As accusations of fraud and voter suppression, calls for recounts and the filing of lawsuits ensued, the terms “hanging chads,” “dimpled chads” and “pregnant chads” became part of the lexicon. [–> I forgot the pregnant chads one]

    Andrew E. Busch, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and co-author of The Perfect Tie: The True Story of the 2000 Presidential Election, says as votes were counted and Bush’s lead grew, TV networks retracted their premature call of Gore, instead giving the state to Bush.

    “When the lead shrank to about 2,000 votes in the early hours of the morning, TV reversed again, rescinded the call for Bush, and declared Florida as yet undetermined,” he says. “The initial problem was failure of the exit polls, for which they later overcompensated.”

    I think you would be well advised to reconsider tone and dismissive attitude.

    PPS: I assume English is not your first language, so I will mark a corrective distinction. Error implies mistake as in a typo in the MI County led to a miscalculation, there was no intent to deceive. By contrast fakery implies intent to deceive by willful misrepresentation. This latter did not happen with me or with the source I used.

    Where, the underlying point that normal two strong party elections in big enough populations tend to run 50:50 to about 70:30 (a “landslide” being from 55:45 on) leads to the issue of runs — that can be modelled by comparing the binomial distribution — and that of heavily one sided votes in constituencies or regions etc.

    The 70:30 long runs calculation on pouring beads from an urn shows implausibility of long runs by chance. With a more sophisticated calculation, it also points to implausibility of less extremely one-sided voting, once the sample is big enough for big fluctuations around the population ratio to drop into utterly unlikely to be seen territory. At least, by chance. Cherry picking etc of course gives a very different outcome.

    This is probably most easily seen with coins tossing for 1,000 coins for a H/T distribution, giving a bell curve. The peak is very sharp, the tails are very slender. In the illustration given, 500 +/- 50 takes in the core of the distribution. This is because there is a distribution of sample means that with big enough samples clusters tightly on the true population peak.

    In that context my rough, simplified calculations on the urn with W/B beads poured out model shows how heavily odds go against runs as low as 100 W, about 1 in 10^16 times. Classic hypothesis testing often uses not likely 1 in 20 or 1 in 100 times as good enough rejection criteria. These are of course extreme tail cases, but wide fluctuations less extreme than fully W are also unlikely. As an empirical rule of thumb, for a US-scaled population pool, surveys of 1,000 at random or adjusted thereto are expected to be within about +/- 3% of the true value of population split on an issue. (There is another root-n rule that shows why higher accuracy is often prohibitively costly, diminishing returns to scale.)

    It is in this context that strong runs or near runs of significant scale are maximally unlikely by chance. Where we have the further factor of known innovations inviting cherry picking, mail-in votes with inadequate controls, ballot harvesting by third parties and manipulation in post offices on top of plain old fashioned chaos. I clip:

    In the midst of the current contested election in several states, and credible indications of significant vote fraud circling the internet, a closer look at the record reveals a Democrat Party that has fervently pursued policies to undermine accountability in the voting process.

    Under these resulting novel conditions, which have been implemented across the nation in recent months, no less than Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito affirmed last week that “serious post-election problems” were predictable.

    Indeed, Attorney General Bill Barr sounded the alarm in September, affirming to Wolf Blitzer of CNN that the mail-in voting schemes being advanced across the nation are “reckless and dangerous,” and “as a matter of logic,” are “very open to fraud and coercion.” He cited a 2009 bipartisan study that affirmed his points, adding this understanding was broadly accepted until “this (Trump) administration came in.”

    In the face of well-documented cases of election fraud, Heritage Foundation senior fellow Hans A. von Spakovsky has also charged “many in the media” with wishing to avoid the heavy reality of this fundamental issue with a “‘move-along, nothing-to-see-here’ narrative” . . . .

    Michigan

    Michigan has a typical state law that sought to prevent “ballot harvesting,” the practice of individuals collecting multiple ballots from the vulnerable, such as the elderly, often through coercion or intimidation, and potentially discarding them. Thus, according to statute, only particular individuals, such as family, friends, and mail carriers, may transmit a person’s absentee ballot to the appropriate clerk.

    In September, after a challenge by left-leaning organizations in the state, a Michigan judge overruled these safeguards, calling them “unconstitutional” and allowing voters to “choose” anyone to return their ballots. The judge also ruled that any ballot postmarked by November 2 would be valid no matter when it arrived.

    Such would fail simple benchmarking against how a run-of-the-mill coop bank handles cash and accounts. A cynic would say many are more concerned about their money than about the integrity of their government. A point that has a lot of empirical support from other directions.

    The problem is, that Lucy has pulled the football one too many times and we are potentially on the brink of a similar catastrophe to 1914. The Archduke and wife were murdered June, a diplomatic crisis sputtered on for weeks but seemed so manageable people went for vacations including the Kaiser. By August, the blank cheque to back Austria tumbled Europe into an ultimately catastrophic war that caused collapse of four major empires, set up round 2 then the cold war and the lingering ME crisis.

    We are playing with hellish matches.

  478. 478
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, you may find the above to be relevant. KF

  479. 479
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: Mapping the lawfare battlefront. KF

    PS: Money shot clip no 1:

    The Donohue court has thus laid out the legal test that the plaintiff must meet. He must plead and prove

    1] specific acts of misconduct,

    2] involving ‘willful or knowing’ ballot fraud,

    3] by state officials or private persons acting jointly with state officials,

    4] that changed the outcome of the election.

    This is a heavy burden. The Trump campaign will have to work hard to meet this test. But it is a matter of fact and evidence.

    Question 4: If the plaintiff does prove its case, can the Court actually order a new Presidential election? The Donohue court says – surprise – YES. This is incredibly important:

    Protecting the integrity of elections particularly Presidential contests is essential to a free and democratic society. It is difficult to imagine a more damaging blow to public confidence in the electoral process than the election of a President whose margin of victory was provided by fraudulent registration or voting, ballot-stuffing or other illegal means. Indeed, entirely foreclosing injunctive relief in the federal courts would invite attempts to influence national elections by illegal means, particularly in those states where no statutory procedures are available for contesting general elections.

    Finally, federal courts in the past have not hesitated to take jurisdiction over constitutional challenges to the validity of local elections and, where necessary, order new elections.

    The fact that a national election might require judicial intervention, concomitantly implicating the interests of the entire nation, if anything, militates in favor of interpreting the equity jurisdiction of the federal courts to include challenges to Presidential elections.

    So the Court is unequivocally asserting it can order a do-order if necessary.

    I suggest:

    >>specific acts of misconduct,>>

    — mail in voting, ballot harvesting, tainted counts etc

    >> involving ‘willful or knowing’ ballot fraud,>>

    — from forcing in to carrying out

    >> by state officials or private persons acting jointly with state officials,>>

    — esp the harvesters

    >> that changed the outcome of the election. >>

    — reversing the key states.

    We will see what is argued, from today on

    Looks like a wild ride ahead, one way or another.

  480. 480
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: Timelined voting patterns, w plots, etc. Note, anomalies vs trends, and spikes, cliffs etc. KF

  481. 481
    bornagain77 says:

    To fill in more pieces of the puzzle, I will excerpt more from the above article,

    BREAKING: “Operation Scorecard” CIA-run vote theft software was running in EVERY swing state… “glitches” switched votes from Trump to Biden -November 7, 2020 – by Mike Adama
    Excerpt: (Natural News) Five days ago, we published a breaking story that was originally uncovered by Dave Janda (DaveJanda.com), detailing the use of CIA-developed software to steal votes by intercepting voting machines and switching Trump votes to Biden votes. That story is entitled, “RED ALERT: Dems collude with CIA to launch intelligence operation that ALTERS voting machine results in Pennsylvania and other swing states.” (See full video interview below, which was banned by YouTube.)
    Earlier today it was discovered that a software “glitch” in Michigan had switched 6,000 votes from Trump to Biden. The glitch was discovered when an effort was made to manually review the ballots, revealing that thousands of votes were switched by the software. This was announced by state GOP Chairwoman Laura Cox, who stated:
    In Antrim County, ballots were counted for Democrats that were meant for Republicans, causing a 6,000 vote swing against our candidates. The county clerk came forward and said ‘tabulating software glitched and caused a miscalculation of the vote.’ Since then, we have now discovered the 47 counties used the same software in the same capacity… Antrim County had to hand count all of the ballots, and these counties that used the software need to closely examine their results for similar discrepancies.
    So 47 other counties in Michigan were using the same software. This means the Michigan vote was stolen from Trump, and we are actually being subjected to a cyber warfare assault on America.
    The same vote rigging software is used in every swing state
    Now, we are learning from The Gateway Pundit that this same software was used in all swing states, including PA, GA, NV, MI, WI, AZ and MN.
    The software is ominously named “Dominion.” The project to deploy this software is called both “Project Hammer” and “Operation Scorecard.”
    As TGP reports:
    Dominion Software is used in 47 US states including ALL OF THE BATTLEGROUND STATES. (47 could be a typo, another source says 30 states, but both sources agree that Dominion was deployed in ALL the Battleground states).
    The Dominion software “glitch” ONLY took votes from President Trump and Republicans.
    Dominion is used in 30 different states.
    Dominion is used in EVERY SWING STATE!
    Nevada
    Arizona
    Minnesota
    Michigan
    Wisconsin
    Georgia
    Pennsylvania
    ,,,,,
    As we reported earlier, the Dominion software intercepts voting machines and alters votes to make sure Joe Biden always has roughly a 3% victory margin, no matter what the original votes.
    In the real world of legitimate votes, Trump achieved such an overwhelming victory in swing states like Michigan that the Dominion software had to switch hundreds of thousands of votes to give Biden the “win.” This massive fraud left a trail of evidence so large that people began to notice. Manual recounts of selected ballots revealed the “glitch” had switch votes exclusively away from Trump in in favor of Joe Biden. (Isn’t it amazing how every “glitch” somehow always favors Biden?)
    Now, the evidence is irrefutable. They’ve been caught red-handed. Dems and the deep state stole the election, and the evidence is now in plain sight.
    Trump will challenge the fraud and have the fake votes thrown out.,,,,
    https://www.dcclothesline.com/2020/11/07/breaking-operation-scorecard-cia-run-vote-theft-software-was-running-in-every-swing-state-glitches-switched-votes-from-trump-to-biden/

    Moreover, as was already pointed out, Dominion is closely associated with Nancy Pelosi and Diane Feinstein’s inner circle,,,

    ,,, Nadeam Elshami, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s former chief of staff who last year became a lobbyist for Dominion, and Richard Blum, California Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s husband, who she said is a significant shareholder in the company.,,,
    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/sidney-powell-people-with-links-to-powerful-democrats-using-dominion-voting-machines-to-steal-votes

    As well, as was already mentioned, both Soros and Clinton’s names also pop up in association with Dominion,

    Per Wayne Baird on Facebook

    “The software is from Avid Technologies Inc. and Richard C. Blum is the owner.. And is Dianne Feinstein’s Husband..”,,, “Dominion Smartmantics board member Mark Malloch-Brown (direct ties to Soros through Open Society); and company hired lobbyists who assigned former Nancy Pelosi chief of staff to account (Nadeam Elshami). This rabbit hole is deep and dark!”

    and

    Clinton Global Initiative
    The DELIAN Project: Democracy through Technology
    Commitment by DELIAN Project
    In 2014, Dominion Voting committed to providing emerging and post-conflict democracies with access to voting technology through its philanthropic support to the DELIAN Project, as many emerging democracies suffer from post-electoral violence due to the delay in the publishing of election results. Over the next three years, Dominion Voting will support election technology pilots with donated Automated Voting Machines (AVM), providing an improved electoral process, and therefore safer elections. ,,,,
    https://www.clintonfoundation.org/clinton-global-initiative/commitments/delian-project-democracy-through-technology

    To repeat what Wayne Baird said on Facebook, “This rabbit hole is deep and dark!”

  482. 482
    JVL says:

    Former US President GW Bush calls Biden to congratulate him on his victory.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/08/us/politics/george-w-bush-congratulates-biden-on-his-victory.html

    “I extended my warm congratulations and thanked him for the patriotic message he delivered last night,” Mr. Bush said in a statement released after he spoke with Mr. Biden by telephone. “I also called Kamala Harris to congratulate her on her historic election to the vice presidency. Though we have political differences, I know Joe Biden to be a good man who has won his opportunity to lead and unify our country.”

    He added: “I want to congratulate President Trump and his supporters on a hard-fought campaign. He earned the votes of more than 70 million Americans — an extraordinary political achievement. They have spoken, and their voices will continue to be heard through elected Republicans at every level of government.”

    While Mr. Bush said Mr. Trump had “the right to request recounts and pursue legal challenges,” his statement made clear he did not think they would succeed and could encourage other Republicans to speak out and increase pressure on Mr. Trump to stop fighting the results with unsubstantiated claims.

    “The American people can have confidence that this election was fundamentally fair, its integrity will be upheld, and its outcome is clear,” he said.

  483. 483
    Bob O'H says:

    kf –

    Ortho, were you there then? Gore was called winner in some media houses eager for scoops even BEFORE the voting was truly finished, esp for FL.

    I don’t recall Gore being declared winner of the election. Florida was called and uncalled for Bush, though.

  484. 484
    ET says:

    JVL- are you daft? Do you think that Bush is the do-all, say-all on the election? Only one side thinks this was a fair election. And even they are doubtful

  485. 485
    bornagain77 says:

    Thanks KF for the link to a detailed timeline analysis of the voting patterns,,, They literally caught the dems redhanded with their hands in the cookie jar.

    What we are looking at will be time series analysis and you will see that it is extremely difficult to create convincing synthetic times series data. By looking at the times series logs of the ballot counting process for the entire country, we can very easily spot fraud.
    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1325592112428163072.html

  486. 486
    daveS says:

    KF,

    It seems you’ve wisely chosen not to pursue this Hammer/Scorecard stuff that your colleagues are fronting, at least. 😛

  487. 487
    Sandy says:

    Bornagain77
    Thanks KF for the link to a detailed timeline analysis of the voting patterns,,, They literally caught the dems redhanded with their hands in the cookie jar.

    I guess this was a trap, wasn’t discovered “by chance” , the cookie jar was left open and Trump team just recorded the thieves live action but didn’t sound alarm imediately just let the thieves to do all the mistakes they intended. I’m sure what we know now is nothing compared with what evidences have Trump team that will be released when the impact is maximal.

  488. 488
    bornagain77 says:

    DaveS, we will see if it pans out when more evidence comes in. ,,, But thus far, as facts laid on the table by KF make clear, there is more than enough warrant right now to indicate widespread fraud in key areas at key times.

    And it is still fairly early in the discovery process mind you

    I strongly suspect that smilely emoticon of yours may not be so smiley in the future when more evidence comes in.

  489. 489
    Seversky says:

    Whatever else you might think of him, Bush does at least represent what the Republican Party used to be not the Trump cult it’s turned into.

  490. 490
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, my view is that until voting machines are benchmarked against banking machines and show themselves at least as reliable they should go to the crushers and landfills. Open invitation to all kinds of shenanigans. On this, I believe in card-weight paper [comparable to the old IBM punch cards] and a heavily scrutineered chain of custody; marked with indelible pencils provided by the polling station; micro markers indexing for the election and for the region might be considered. The only exception is a benchmarked database as accurate and reliable as banking systems that records the population, the registered, those who vote etc, with instant flags. Also, ID cards for cross checks, functionally similar to bank account cards; hologram watermarks. ballots can have metallic ink watermarks. I also believe in indelible, UV fluorescing ink on the finger. I don’t think I can get votes moving by military armoured vehicle, with scrutineers on seals to guarantee chain of custody. As for the belittling games, just cut them out. KF

  491. 491
    ET says:

    No, seversky, Bush represents Bush and that is it. The democrats are the problem in the USA. Look what they did to their own cities over the summer. They impeached Trump on a nonsensical charge. The left is a bunch of whiny losers.

  492. 492
    bornagain77 says:

    Well Sandy, I don’t know exactly who was recording the data flow in real time, or exactly who was behind making sure it got captured in real time, all I know is that is that the line of evidence that KF referenced is as good, if not better, than having a video camera catch a thief in the act of stealing.

  493. 493
    kairosfocus says:

    Sandy, this is actually NYT timelined data analysed by a data scientist. In addition to cliffs, it has trend anomalies showing. One thing instantly shot down is that mail-in votes (where valid on trend) were utterly, overwhelmingly D; there is a signature for them and a plausible line that initially trends D as urban areas come in then R as more rural areas come in. The cliffs pop up vs that and the reverse trends to D are anomalies appearing in key states; it is implausible that hinterlands are counter to the overall trend visible on the overall maps. It is plausible strong scatter early is in person voting influenced by very local, small scale balances of support and fluctuations. Of course the strong trend also shows how fluctuations on randomised samples tend to be small about the trend. BTW, VA shows up heavily flagged but I suppose it went hard enough that it would be plausible to make a case of no actual effect on outcome. The DC effect dominates all else. KF

  494. 494
    kairosfocus says:

    BA77, those right wing fundy deplorables at NYT. KF

  495. 495
    bornagain77 says:

    KF, ha ha ha, 🙂

    Dog gone those deep cover right wing fundy deplorables at NYT, 🙂

  496. 496
    daveS says:

    KF,

    I agree with you on some points, including the use of low-tech paper ballots. Everything should be as transparent as possible. I don’t know if the ink idea would be possible here, for obvious reasons. Photo ID, yes, depending on what we are talking about. Certainly not a new “national ID card” or anything with a chip in it. I think state driver’s licenses/ID cards are the best we can do.

  497. 497
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, when my native land was on a 666 contract to go to one big state run ID system, my suggestion was, create a market for ID’s with competing providers and database access with firewalls only lowered on court order. Actually, i would seed the ballots with ID stuff, microparticles in the ink. Same for the indelible pencils (or maybe a specialised pic type pen). I am still tempted by the birching then cat for relatively minor fraud or intimidation, short drop for serious, and full Kratman for treason, but I suspect the Spirit is taming my genetic-stamped inheritance. KF

  498. 498
    bornagain77 says:

    KF, due to the mainstream media blackout of his side of the story, it is reported that Trump will hold ‘rallies’ so as to get the word out about the mounting evidence for widespread fraud,

    Trump Will Reportedly Start Holding Rallies Again
    Leah Barkoukis Posted: Nov 09, 2020
    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2020/11/09/trump-will-reportedly-start-holding-rallies-again-n2579724

    Watch them try to squash this like they tried to squash Hunter Biden’s laptop.

  499. 499
  500. 500
    daveS says:

    KF,

    I doubt that taggants would be accepted here. We had a debate about them a couple of decades ago, IIRC. I also can’t image corporal punishment. I’ve witnessed it and IMHO, it’s just not where we want to go.

    How are voter fraud rates in Colorado, where everything is done by mail?

  501. 501
    JVL says:

    ET: JVL- are you daft? Do you think that Bush is the do-all, say-all on the election? Only one side thinks this was a fair election. And even they are doubtful

    I didn’t even make a comment about the story! I just presented it. I never liked GWB myself but he and his family are still influential and listened to. And there are other Republicans who agree with him it appears; who don’t want to get tarred-and-feathered along with the lame-duck President.

    One of the national newspapers in England was wondering if The President was worried about some of the legal difficulties he’s managed to avoid while in office. Some wonder if he’s going to pardon himself. Some think Melania is going to divorce him soon. It’s like a soap-opera without the sex.

  502. 502
    JVL says:

    Bornagain77: KF, due to the mainstream media blackout of his side of the story, it is reported that Trump will hold ‘rallies’ so as to get the word out about the mounting evidence for widespread fraud,

    No blackout here; I heard that reported (as speculation) on a BBC podcast a couple of days ago.

    Maybe the US news organisations are just tired of him? I heard some of them cut away from his news briefing at the Four Seasons . . . landscaping business (is it really next to an adult book store?).

    Seems like the wheels are starting to fall off.

  503. 503
    JVL says:

    What about the legal challenges?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54724960

    It’s quite interesting reading. Especially regarding the situation in Nevada where voters who had moved out of state still voted in Nevada.

    From the Pennsylvania section:

    Another ongoing case disputes how long voters should be able to provide proof of identification if it’s missing or unclear on their postal ballots.Voters are currently allowed to fix their ballots up to 12 November, but the Trump campaign has filed a lawsuit seeking to reduce this deadline to 9 November.

    Why are they trying to interfere in an issue legally decided by the state of Pennsylvania? Why didn’t they object BEFORE the election if they had a problem with it?

  504. 504
    daveS says:

    JVL,

    Maybe the US news organisations are just tired of him? I heard some of them cut away from his news briefing at the Four Seasons . . . landscaping business (is it really next to an adult book store?).

    Regarding one of the people who spoke at the Four Seasons (Total Landscaping), Daryl Brooks, calling himself a GOP poll watcher:

    Brooks was incarcerated in the 1990s on charges of sexual assault, lewdness and endangering the welfare of a minor for exposing himself to two girls ages 7 and 11, according to news accounts.

    It just seems like a very poorly planned event.

  505. 505
    bornagain77 says:

    KF, the report of rallies was reported to be premature. Sorry for jumping the gun.

  506. 506
    bornagain77 says:

    JVL states “Maybe the US news organisations are just tired of him?”

    Au contraire. the main stream media have never tired of bashing Trump since before he was even elected.

    It is comical how they, the Mainstream media, fawned over Obama during his administration, and how they are currently fawning over Biden, compared to the vitriolic hatred they constantly displayed towards Trump.

    The hatred displayed towards Trump seemed downright demonic at times. i.e. For instance, remember Madonna wanting to ‘blow up the Whitehouse’ simply because Trump had won? Or do you remember the high pitched wailing in the streets????

    Further irrational hatred from the left is evidenced by the so called ‘peaceful protests’ that resulted in the fire bomb destruction, and looting, of thousands of small businesses that were, in large measure, owned by minorities themselves.

    Further calls to defund the police in the face of such widespread destruction of small businesses only further highlighted the sheer insanity and irrational hatred of the left’s position.

    So no, au contraire, the media never tired of hating Trump, In fact, I hold that their hatred of Trump is an obsession, a mental illness. Some have rightly called it ‘Trump derangement syndrome’

    I predict the media will go into withdraws once, and whenever, Trump retires to his golf course.

    Once Trump is gone from the spot light, whenever that may be, the media probably will have to hunt him down every once in a while, wherever he is, just to shout obscenities at him so as to satisfy their obsessive and psychopathic hatred of him.

    🙂

  507. 507
    kairosfocus says:

    Folks, just remember it is very hard to cook or corrupt an intricately integrated, complex time series driven data set. SOMETHING is going to stick out somewhere. The frequency spectrum will shift, the scatter on data points will shift, the mean or median will shift, and more; all in ways that are not plausible on fluctuations or legitimate trends or events. There is even the one that caught some researchers, their claimed data fit theoretical models too well, I think Mendel’s gardener is suspected on that one and a similar thing happened to Sir Cyril Burt in educational psychology. Even eyeball mark one is going to spot pattern changes. In addition, the truth will fit with surrounding and remote connected circumstances, often in subtle ways — I once could spot when church services began in an energy use electricity consumption curve. Ads in popular TV shows showed up as surges in water use and sewage flow back in the days of network TV. Such a series thus becomes significantly self authenticating. KF

  508. 508
    orthomyxo says:

    PPS: I assume English is not your first language, so I will mark a corrective distinction. Error implies mistake as in a typo in the MI County led to a miscalculation, there was no intent to deceive. By contrast fakery implies intent to deceive by willful misrepresentation. This latter did not happen with me or with the source I used.

    I know what fake means, and I’m very confident that screenshot is fake. As your own time line makes clear, the election was not called for Gore by any network. There is no scenario in which Gore world have wne with 271, and the map had several states wrong. I accept your merely credulous rather than deceptive in sharing it.

    But the evidence you have more collated in this post includes a fake screenshot about a lawsuit from 2019 (that was dropped because the plaintiff was happy the issue had been dealt with), the affidavit from a suit trust was immediately rejected, a screenshot from one aggregator that is explained by a typo and a graph with the blue line obscuring the red one. I can see why you prefer to cast aspersions on the method of buying e general when these are the best specific claims you can muster!

  509. 509
    kairosfocus says:

    PS: Ponder, the way the OP points to how the mountains or pillars of influence in a culture are covered by the aegis of a dominant worldview and linked cultural agenda.

    These are mutually reinforcing and those who seek profound reformation in the face of a march of folly are almost always forced to a counter culture strategy, which of course then meets attack and pressure to conform. To sustain such a reformational stance, start with anchor-point first truths and first duties. That is why I have so strongly emphasised first duties of right reason and how we can see that they are inescapable, thus inescapably and self-evidently true.

    Similarly, remember, that ours id a day driven by a monstrous central evil that has corrupted everything that has been co-opted to enable it; the holocaust of our living posterity in the womb, for the US 63+ millions and mounting at 400k per year. Observe, how the media, pols and courts have been deeply warped by it, and so also education etc.

    Do you think the corrupt enabling horrific blood guilt can be trusted to be truthful, reasonable, prudent, guided by sound conscience, regard neighbour, or serve fairness and justice. This last, the due balance of legitimate rights, freedoms and duties? Do you think that they will recognise that they can have no right to force another to uphold and enable evils and lies? Do you think they will yield to what says of what is, that it is; and of what is not, that it is not — truth by its proper definition?

    In that spirit, let us again ponder the incident in Ac 27 as a parable for how democracies can be misled into voyages of ruinous folly on the ship of state — and ponder why we have not heard this fearlessly taught and hammered home from the pulpit:

    [On Luke’s microcosm on the ship of state, Jan 1, 2013:] Entrenched highly ideological orthodoxies — and this includes successful revolutionaries, whether on institutional or community scale — that control resource flows to their benefit and which exert enormous power in institutions and society [I was speaking here about today’s evolutionary materialism dominated science], tend to be very resistant to what is new and unsettling to their comfort zones and interests. Where there has been indoctrination and polarisation, we can see this multiplied by the problem of lack of logical thinking ability and sheer lack of awareness of the true state of the balance of warrant on the merits of facts and evidence.

    The perceived heretic, then is a threat to be fought off, marginalised, discredited and if necessary destroyed. By any and all means, fair or foul.

    (I find the obsession with suggestions of a threat of religious subversion of [scientific, political, education, media and cultural] institutions long since subverted by radical secularists slightly amusing but quite sad in the end. The key threat is unaccountable, out of control power in the hands of elites prone to corruption, not that this once happened with religious elites. In the past 100 years, we saw major secularist movements and neopagan movements of political messianism that did much the same to horrific cost. And the welfare state of the past generation has not been a whole lot better. [Just ask the ghosts of the dozens of millions who have been aborted for convenience.])

    Where is there a solution?

    Frankly, at this stage, I think things are going to have to crash so badly and some elites are going to have to be so discredited by the associated spreading failure, that media propaganda tactics cannot cover it up anymore.

    My model for that comes from one of the red-flag sources that will give some of the objectors [to the design theory movement in science] the vapours.

    Acts 27.

    What, how dare you cite that, that . . . that . . . textbook for theocratic tyranny by the ignorant, insane, stupid and/or wicked followers of that bronze age misogynistic homophobic genocidal racist war god!

    (Do you hear how your agit-prop talking points are enmeshing you in the classic trap of believing your own propaganda?)

    Let’s start with, Paul of Tarsus, c. AD 59, was not in the Bronze Age but was an appellate prisoner in chains on early Imperial era grain ships having a hard time making way from the Levant and Asia Minor to Rome, in the second case ending up in a bay on Crete. What followed is a classic exercise in the follies of manipulated democracy, a case study that will well repay study in our time.

    It was late in the sailing season, and the merchant-owner was worried about his ship in an open bay at Fair Havens, given what winter storms can do.

    The passengers were not too impressed by the nearby settlements as a wintering place. (Sailing stopped in Autumn and opened back up in Spring. [–> EVERYONE knew why, the ships of that day could not bear up the storms of winter, and as time wore on in the fall, sailing became increasingly dangerous])

    The key technico, the kubernete — steersman, more or less like a pilot of an airliner — knew where his bread was buttered, and by whom.

    In the middle was a Centurion of the elite messenger corps.

    We are at ship’s council, and Paul, in chains, is suggesting that the suggestion to venture our with a favourable wind to try to make it to a more commodious port down-coast was excessively risky not only to boat but life.

    The financial and technical talking heads and the appeal of comfort allowed him to be easily marginalised and dismissed.

    Then we saw a gentle south breeze, that would have allowed a reach down the coast. (The technicos probably knew this could be a precursor to a storm, but were not going to cut across the dominant view.)

    They sailed out.

    Bang, an early winter noreaster hit them and sprang the boat’s timbers (why they tried to hold together with ropes [–> called frapping]) so the ship was in a sinking condition from the beginning.

    Worse, they were heading for sandbars off the coast of today’s Libya.

    For two weeks all they could do was use a sea anchor to control drift and try to steer vaguely WNW.

    Forget, eating.

    That is when Paul stood forth as a good man in a storm, and encouraged them with a vision from God. By this time, hope was to be shipwrecked on a coast. (Turned out, [probably] north coast of Malta [possibly, east end].)

    While the ship was at risk of being driven aground and set out four anchors by the stern from midnight on, the sailors tried to abandon the passengers on a ruse, spotted by Paul and/or Luke his travelling companion.

    By this time, the Centurion knew who to take seriously and the ship’s boat was cut away. He then took the decision to save Paul and refused the soldiers’ request to kill the prisoners to prevent escape (for which their lives would have been forfeit).

    So, they made it to a beach on Malta, having lost the ship in any case AND nearly their own lives.

    So, is there a seemingly sweet and favourable South wind blowing? What could it be a harbinger of?

  510. 510
    kairosfocus says:

    Ortho, you just demonstrated yourself a false accuser, driven by hostile intent through what you projected to others in the teeth of a very reasonable innocent explanation. This is compounded by your further projection above of hyperskeptical dismissal in absence of sounder knowledge of the events in 2000. Sad, but we now must take due, prudent measure of your fulminations. KF

  511. 511
    Mac McTavish says:

    KF

    Folks, just remember it is very hard to cook or corrupt an intricately integrated, complex time series driven data set. SOMETHING is going to stick out somewhere. The frequency spectrum will shift, the scatter on data points will shift, the mean or median will shift, and more; all in ways that are not plausible on fluctuations or legitimate trends or events.

    But that assumes that the time series is selected randomly from the population, which it is not. In Wisconsin, Milwaukee ballots, didn’t start getting counted until 4am. And Milwaukee is strongly Democrat.

    “A surge in Wisconsin results overnight that largely favored Biden raised conservative ire, but it reflected the Democratic stronghold of Milwaukee reporting more than 169,000 absentee votes.”

  512. 512
    kairosfocus says:

    MMT, there is much more to the matter than apparently meets your eye; in due course. Recall, we have in hand a data signature for mail-in ballots. And “absentee” evades a crucial distinction on safeguards that is central. That is itself a signature, of something else. KF

  513. 513
    AndyClue says:

    @orthomyxo:
    > But the evidence you have more collated in this post includes a fake screenshot (….)

    And don’t forget the Crowder video (the one with the white van) which has been debunked several times in this thread.

  514. 514
    kairosfocus says:

    AC, the pivot of argument in this thread does not turn on that video, you have set up and knocked over a strawman. There is indeed a key video, now in the OP. It is the testimony of a Chinese-American polling place observer. There is no good reason to disregard her troubling testimony on many points. I challenge you to watch it and respond substantially to her key concerns. Something is deeply wrong with elections in the US, which right now stirs ugly baked-in memories for a Scots descendant whose family in part came to my native land because they were Jacobins. Don’t forget the onward history there, literally written into my name. KF

  515. 515
    AndyClue says:

    @kairosfocus

    > AC, the pivot of argument in this thread does not turn on that video, you have set up and knocked over a strawman.

    What strawman?

    > There is no good reason to disregard her troubling testimony on many points.

    I don’t disregard it. I’ve watched it. Very troubling indeed. What’s the connection to Crowder’s video?

  516. 516
    Sandy says:

    AndyCIue
    …” don’t disregard it. I’ve watched it. Very troubling indeed. What’s the connection to Crowder’s video?”

    🙂 How was debunked Crowder’s video ? Because somebody said is not true? Before they used this method of transporting illegal ballots they surely thought what lie to serve to the public(if they were caught) . 😉

  517. 517
    orthomyxo says:

    Of your going to tell us the source of the”screenshot” KF. I accept you didn’t share it knowing it was fake, but it seems pretty fake doesn’t it.

    Do you want to address the other points. You do see the red line is covered by the blue one in the WI “cliff”, yes? So the red line also get’s a jump when the blue one does? Have you read the story about local news station put out saying the PA lawsuit “screenshot”is not part of their story (as claimed) and that the lawsuit was withdrawn because the issues were dealt with?

    To be clear, I don’t think think you’re conciously setting out to mislead, just doing a very poor job of assessing the quality of “evidence”that I can only assume is coming from a conservative Facebook group

  518. 518
    Mac McTavish says:

    KF@512, every time one of your examples of malfeasance is debunked, you ignore it. And, frankly, every time I have looked into one of your conspiracy theories, it is easily disproven. So, let’s look at another one; the accusation that a postmaster ordered postal workers to back date postmarks in Michigan.

    “The information in that video is entirely false,” said Tracy Wimmer, a spokesperson for the Michigan Department of State, in an email. “Michigan does not have a postmark deadline for ballots. It has a hard deadline — they must all be received by 8 p.m. on Election Day to count.”

    “Changing postmarks on ballots yesterday would not have mattered,” Wimmer said. “Any ballots in the post office yesterday means they were not already in the hands of a clerk Tuesday night and therefore would be rejected.”

    So, this obviously could have had no impact on the election. If it actually happened, it is definitely illegal and should be investigated. But investigated by the post office, not by state election officials.