NOTE: This is a post about probability estimation, rather than about inferring design. All systems – whether designed or not – have a certain level of specified complexity associated with them. Only if that level exceeds a certain threshold can we reliably infer intelligent design. The definition of a pattern’s specified complexity makes reference to P(T|H), the probability of a pattern T with respect to the chance hypothesis H. In this case, the pattern we see is an observed structure in a meteorite, and there are two competing hypotheses as to how it arose (leaving aside the possibility of contamination). What I’m interested in is how we would calculate the probability of that pattern if it arose abiotically, as opposed to the probability of that pattern if it is a bacterial fossil. It’s this kind of number-crunching which I feel we need to become proficient at. It would definitely be a feather in our caps if the ID movement could develop a readily utilizable metric to assist NASA in evaluating claimed discoveries of life from outer space. – VJT.
Recently, NASA scientist Richard Hoover looked at some slices of three very rare meteorites using an electron microscope technique called Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy, and saw what he believes to be tiny fossils of Cyanobacteria. Hoover’s article, Fossils of Cyanobacteria in CI1 Carbonaceous Meteorites has generated a storm of controversy. Physicist Rob Sheldon has recently blogged about Hoover’s findings here and responded to some common criticisms of Hoover’s work here. Alan Boyle’s report on MSNBC is available online here. Science blogger Dan Satterfield has a post about Hoover’s discoveries here, and a review by “Discover” magazine correspondent Phil Plait can be found here. A critical review by microbiologist Rosie Redfield can be found here, while P.Z. Myers’ dismissal of Hoover’s claims is available online here.
I thought this would be an interesting test case for the concept of complex specified information (CSI), which has been getting quite a bit of attention on this blog recently (see for instance Mathgrrl’s post here, and my posts here and here). So without further ado, let’s proceed.
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