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CR’s fallibilism vs the issue of sufficiently reliable rationality

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UD serves as a forum in which many issues are debated and as a result form time to time, there are things that it is helpful to draw to wider attention by headling. Here, something from the objectivity and morality thread, as food for thought :

KF, 302: >>CR:

Every proposition is fallible because there are no infallible sources that we can defer to by which to prevent us from falling in error. Reason has its say first.

Absurdly false and counter to facts in evidence.

Just because we are fallible does not entail that in every case there is a residual uncertainty regarding the truth of propositions. A significant number of things are necessarily true, and a relevant subset of these are self-evidently true. For instance, it has been repeatedly shown that error exists is undeniably true, Likewise, as a conscious individual, you are incorrigibly and undeniably known to yourself to be conscious as a bare fact. and that we don’t have a list of all SET’s or an infallible rule for grounding all truths etc etc, is utterly irrelevant to what we now have in hand. The bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Your problem is that you have made a crooked yardstick your standard, a type of fallibilist skepticism and you have a major challenge in acknowledging its failures.

For example: in the above you have exerted great certainty about fallibilism, asserting a universal affirmative that is thus self-referential. It implies that fallibilism is uncertain also, so that what your claim boils down to is a policy declaration that you will treat all claims as fallible, with the convenient exception of the core elements of your system.

Now the oh the sources are fallible claim fails through the key issue of degree of reliability. A good car, calculator or computer will admittedly be fallible, but they are sufficiently reliable to be very effective and useful. Likewise, our reasoning process. The abstract possibility of error can be compatible with the reality of effective and trustworthy performance in many relevant cases.

And in the case of relevant SET’s such as are seen in the OP and thread above, we have claimed truths that are so, are warranted to be necessarily so, and that can be confirmed by insightful inspection backed up by the examination that shows the attempted denial leads to patent absurdity. Denying that error exists directly leads to the implication that it is an error to assert that error exists, so error exists is undeniable. To try to deny one’s consciousness has to use said consciousness so is self-defeating. And so forth.

So, the answer to such fallibilism is the sufficient reliability of our reason. Sufficient to function in some cases to utter certainty.

Your scheme fails the test of factual adequacy.

As for reason, your implication is, that it is a sufficiently reliable capacity to be trustworthy and respected. But, it too depends on self evident truths connected to distinct identity. For instance you are conscious and may consider the appearance of a bright red ball on a table. It matters not here whether it is instantiated physically, or is imagined, or is a computer generated graphic or is a product of electrical stimulation of a brain in a vat. The appearance is enough to distinguish ball A from rest of world ~A. The world partition is immediate:

W = {A|~A}

From this we instantly see that A is itself, also that this is distinct from ~A which is also itself. Then, no thing x in W can be A AND ~A. Any x will be A X-OR ~A. this is due to A’s distinct identity as a thing.

This is not a proof, it is an instructive explanation for the willing. For, to discuss such, at every step of the way we had to rely on distinct identity. This is the root of reasoning and it is undeniably true, forced truth.

Similarly the dichotomy marks distinct things so quantity. From that we see two-ness, thence the endless chain of the naturals necessarily following.

Going on, we can consider also how 2 + 3 = 5:

|| + ||| –> |||||

This too speaks for itself so that one who understands sees that this is necessarily and undeniably so on pain of absurdity. And yes, one may construct an axiomatic scheme that leads up to this, but that scheme is less certain than the above. And we hardly need to point to Godel’s incompleteness result to see that.

The end of all this is that you have put up a crooked yardstick as reference standard for straightness, accuracy and uprightness. It has failed the test of the naturally straight and upright plumb-line. So, now, whose report will you believe, why?

KF

PS: Red herrings on the Bible are obvious distractions intended to taint the discussion. They are readily addressed elsewhere and we need not end up in a pointless distraction. Sufficient is on the table, and unresponsiveness or evasion or clinging to absurdity will not help you or your claims.>>

Yes, the above is not directly on the design issue, but the force of the matter should show its relevance. For, if we deal with those indoctrinated to imagine that  all thought is fallible so skeptical doubts prevail, then we can see a big part of why mere evidence and reasoing will often fail to be impressive.

Something is deeply rotten and is dangerously destructive with the state of our civilisation, and we need to deal with it before things collapse. I have my doubts that as a whole we will wake up, but sufficient numbers can form a remnant that can stand in the face of palpably coming chaos. END

Comments
Either no one can be bothered to quote the post in such a way that presents the actual substance of what was written, which is quote mining or, apparently simply failed to understand the point being made. The first implies intentionally presenting falsehoods and the second implies incompetence or a desire to remain willful ignorant. In context.....
What would a good explanation that 2+2 doesn’t equal 4 look like? I can’t think of one; that’s because the theory that it’s true is, in real life, extremely hard to vary. That’s why mathematicians mistake it for being self-evident, or directly intuited, etc. And it is of course my opinion that 2+2 does in fact equal 4, so I’m not expecting to find a contrary theory that is at all good as an explanation. But, for instance, Greg Egan’s science-fiction story Dark Integers explores essentially that possibility (albeit only for very large integers). The analogy between the theory of evolution and the 2+2 theory is in fact closer than the mere difficulty of imagining a good explanation to the contrary. Both of them, if false, would seem to involve there being This makes for very bad explanations, but that doesn’t affect the logic of the issue so here goes: The analogue of creationism being true, then, would be something like that there is really no such entity as the number 4 because the axioms of arithmetic as we know them are blatantly inconsistent, and that the laws of physics act on neurons to make us unconsciously confabulate excuses for ignoring the physical effects of that.
Again, the point being make is that we do not have good criticism of the idea that 2 +2 = 4. Deutsch goes out on a limb to provide a possible criticism that leads to bad explanations. Which an example of a bad criticism. Namely, the bad criticism that 4 doesn't actually exist and that the laws of physics somehow act our brains to continue make excuses for it's absence. Let me emphasis this again. This is not a good criticism. And we do not accept it, because it has implications that "there are laws of physics that directly mess with the creation of knowledge, in what we would consider a malevolent way." This would be like claiming someone merely appears guilty because everyone from the judge to arresting officers, to the crime scene technicians to the DNA testers to the defendants family to even the laws of physics, are conspiring against them. However, this does not preclude someone in the near future finding some common thread between all parties involved that might lead us to think such a conspiracy is actually in play. One might point out the the entire police force was dirty, and the judge was willing to throw the case in change for withholding evidence on a high powered associate's case, and they had blackmailed the crime scene technician because he had contaminated a crime scene that let another criminal go free, and the DNA tester was paid to swap out the test and the wife was having an affair and paid the commissioner a million dollars to get him out of the picture, etc. But until someone does this, "it might be a conspiracy" is a bad criticism of the very same evidence that points to the guilt of the defendant. And it will be deferred to as such until then. In the same sense, even 2 + 2 = 4 is open to criticism. Even if that criticism ends up failing, which would be yet another test it had passed, which may cause people to think it is even more ambiguously and self-evdeinty true.
For example, how did you specifically pick 2 + 2 = 4, and all other propositions listed here, as candidates for immunity from criticism? Why not some some other propositions, such as the angles of a triangle sum to two right angles, or that the city you live in exists, etc? Did you not conclude those specific propositions would best make your point because they were the most unambiguously true of all the candidate propositions you considered including in your argument? If so, then how did you determine how obviously and unambiguously true each of those candidate propositions was in relation to the other candidates? Did you not stop and criticize them by an attempt to quickly consider reasons or ways they might be conceivably false? It seems that, if you didn’t criticize them, then you have no way of concluding those specific propositions would best make your point. If they were immune from criticism, then did you arbitrarily choose them? IOW, nothing you’ve said conflicts with the idea that there is no dichotomy between non-basic beliefs and basic beliefs. What you call basic beliefs are beliefs that we do not have good criticism of, as opposed to being immune to criticism.
critical rationalist
January 6, 2018
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For example: in the above you have exerted great certainty about fallibilism, asserting a universal affirmative that is thus self-referential. It implies that fallibilism is uncertain also, so that what your claim boils down to is a policy declaration that you will treat all claims as fallible, with the convenient exception of the core elements of your system.
Except, I've given examples of what it means to be a fallibilist about fallibilism, which everyone continues to ignore. Some of which are examples of what other people have done when making counter arguments. When I point this out, all I get are enthusiastic denials to the contrary. Apparently, it's not criticism if they say it's not criticism? Again, no one has actually disagreed with me beyond quoting dictionary definitions, which is essentialism. Why did KF choose 2+2=4 or any other proposition over all others that he considered to best make his point Has anyone failed a math test? Has anyone failed a logic test? How can we infallible claim to posses every possible criticism of the idea? Can we not devise even better criticisms in the future, which propositions may pass?critical rationalist
January 6, 2018
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Origenes, yup. KFkairosfocus
January 5, 2018
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//Correction #15// The wording of the last part of #15 is a bit off. Second try: - - - -
This is a conjecture: every proposition is fallible.
Does the insert "this is a conjecture" solve the problem? Is the disclaimer a cure for all self-defeating statements? Unfortunately for CR that's not the case. “Every proposition is fallible”, is a false proposition, because, as shown, it is self-defeating. Conjecturing (guessing / hypothesizing) what is false is therefore always wrong. If that is not immediately clear, then let’s, for a moment, replace “every proposition is fallible”, with another false proposition, “3 = 7”, so we get:
This is a conjecture: 3 = 7
Here we can effortlessly see that the conjecture must be wrong. "3 = 7" is false, and (obviously) it doesn't make it right to add "this is a conjecture." Put generally, “this is a conjecture: [self-defeating/false proposition X]” is always necessarily wrong. Indeed, in its entirety "this is a conjecture: every proposition is fallible" is no longer self-defeating, but it is still necessarily wrong because it still contains a self-defeating statement. Conclusion: CR’s disclaimer is utterly useless.Origenes
January 5, 2018
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CR, Barry Arrington, KF
Every proposition is fallible — [CR]
Is that proposition fallible? — [Barry Arrington]
CR: I haven’t preceded every statement with “This is a conjecture”. So, what? Do I need to put a disclaimer at the top of every comment?
CR understands that there is a problem and proposes inserting a disclaimer. For clarity, without a disclaimer, the problem is that “Every proposition is fallible” is a self-defeating statement:
1. Every proposition is fallible. 2. *Every proposition is fallible* is a proposition. Therefore, from (1) and (2) 3. *Every proposition is fallible* is fallible. Therefore 4. *Every proposition is fallible* is self-defeating or utterly meaningless at best.
“But what happens when CR's disclaimer is inserted?”, the reader might ask. It would look like this:
This is a conjecture: every proposition is fallible.
Does this solve the problem? Is the disclaimer a ‘cure’ for all self-defeating statements? Unfortunately for CR it is not. “Every proposition is fallible”, is false, because it is a self-defeating statement. Any conjecture about it is therefore equally false. If that is not immediately clear, then let’s, for a moment, replace “every proposition is fallible”, with another false statement, “A = not A”, so we get
This is a conjecture: A = not A.
Now we can clearly see that the conjecture must be false, because it is about something that is false. Put generally, "this is a conjecture: [self-defeating statement X]" is always necessarily false. Conclusion: CR’s disclaimer is utterly useless.Origenes
January 5, 2018
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WJM, it seems there is a tendency to give oneself (and one's colleagues or referents) a self-serving exception to self-referential dilemmas. KFkairosfocus
January 5, 2018
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RVB8, ridicule is patently a wrong term to describe the focus of the OP. There is a substantial issue on the table, why not simply address it cogently on the merits? For example: does fallibility undermine ALL of the products of reasoning, decisively undermining warrant for knowledge claims? Isn't that self-referential? And, aren't there demonstrable cases of self-evident truths that directly counter the claim? If you disagree, kindly explain why and in so doing draw our attention to how fallibilism does not then fatally undermine the trustworthiness of your own contention. KFkairosfocus
January 5, 2018
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In other words, according to Deutsch, we are completely in the dark. There is only darkness, no light anywhere, not even shades of grey. Needless to say, Deutsch produced yet another self-defeating statement …
If they really believed what they say, they wouldn't bother trying to make the argument that fallibilism is true. What an obviously inane argument to try to make. For their argument (or any argument) to have any real value, fallibilism must be false. Their arguments, as always, depend on the very things they claim do not exist. It's hard to believe any being with the capacity for abstract reasoning can't see the folly in these kinds of positions. It's almost like they have a higher-reasoning blind spot that comes with their insistence that God doesn't exist. I guess when you block out the sun you end up not being able to see all sorts of things that are readily apparent to those living in the light.William J Murray
January 5, 2018
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Origines We should also take into account Mark Twain’s counsel about these things. “When we remember that we are all mad,the mysteries disappear, and life stands explained."” Vividvividbleau
January 4, 2018
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Origines “In my perception this “argumentation” by Deutsch is one of the craziest texts I have ever read. Everything about it is totally insane.” Not really, doncha know that to establish your bona fides you must genuflect before Darwin’s altar. Vividvividbleau
January 4, 2018
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Wow, two posts specifically aimed at ridiculing CR. If you take his, and science's line at a less purist level, then approaching ALL knowledge sceptically would seem to be the rational stance; its certainly how I view any new 'truths' or dicoveries. Our recent past shows how humanity too easily falls for the con-man, and snake oil salesmen. If we had just followed Popper's wise words, the world would have several fewer Abrahamic religions. Unfortunately being the gullible bumpkins we are, we swallow any old prophecy, and then spend the rest of our lives in mental contortions as science emphatically disproves all the writings as either, ahistoric, mad rambling, or just plain barmy.rvb8
January 4, 2018
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What I'd like to see is CR actually take an idea and show us his "critical reasoning" process in determining the moral value of it - not just describing the theory, but showing the work and coming up with a "critically reasoned" value - good, evil, or whatever. Take something like slavery or abortion and apply this critical reasoning to it so we can see an example of the process in full bloom.William J Murray
January 4, 2018
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DS, Okay, you are right. He is "merely" making a grossly flawed analogy. KFkairosfocus
January 4, 2018
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KF, It doesn't look like he's claiming "the axioms of arithmetic" are actually known to be inconsistent.daveS
January 4, 2018
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Origenes (ATTN, CR et al): NOTE: an oopsie, left standing . . .
Deutsch: the axioms of arithmetic as we know them are blatantly inconsistent
Really? Who established such and what prize was s/he given, when, where? That one caught my eye. KFkairosfocus
January 4, 2018
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//follow-up #2// Being totally in the dark without any escape, is no basis for knowledge, so CR & co need to introduce something that can lead us to the light. "What would that be?", the reader might ask. Well, the theory of evolution of course. Why? Well, that's easy: because it is (nearly) impossible to imagine that it could be wrong ... Deutsch explains why that is:
Deutsch: The analogy between the theory of evolution and the 2+2 theory is in fact closer than the mere difficulty of imagining a good explanation to the contrary. Both of them, if false, would seem to involve there being laws of physics that directly mess with the creation of knowledge, in what we would consider a malevolent way. This makes for very bad explanations, but that doesn’t affect the logic of the issue so here goes: The analogue of creationism being true, then, would be something like that there is really no such entity as the number 4 because the axioms of arithmetic as we know them are blatantly inconsistent, and that the laws of physics act on neurons to make us unconsciously confabulate excuses for ignoring the physical effects of that.
In my perception this "argumentation" by Deutsch is one of the craziest texts I have ever read. Everything about it is totally insane.Origenes
January 4, 2018
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Origenes, The parallel thread on the two new security holes in advanced processor architectures show how probability can be estimated and used for inferring key information that would be used to hack systems. Deutsch is simply wrong. empirically overturned. See here:https://uncommondescent.com/cybernetics-and-mechatronics/an-unhappy-new-year-for-computers-and-smart-devices-the-meltdown-spectre-flaws-in-intel-amd-and-arm-processors/ KFkairosfocus
January 4, 2018
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According to CR & Deutsch there are no infallible sources of knowledge. All information is suspect; information stemming from direct experience included. This idea is self-defeating and completely in line with self-defeating statements by Popper, like “all knowledge is hypothetical” [OKN 30], and “All knowledge remains… conjectural” [RASC xxxv]. KairosFocus skillfully points out yet another problem with it:
Now the oh the sources are fallible claim fails through the key issue of degree of reliability. A good car, calculator or computer will admittedly be fallible, but they are sufficiently reliable to be very effective and useful. Likewise, our reasoning process. The abstract possibility of error can be compatible with the reality of effective and trustworthy performance in many relevant cases. And in the case of relevant SET’s such as are seen in the OP and thread above, we have claimed truths that are so, are warranted to be necessarily so, and that can be confirmed by insightful inspection backed up by the examination that shows the attempted denial leads to patent absurdity. Denying that error exists directly leads to the implication that it is an error to assert that error exists, so error exists is undeniable. To try to deny one’s consciousness has to use said consciousness so is self-defeating. And so forth. So, the answer to such fallibilism is the sufficient reliability of our reason. Sufficient to function in some cases to utter certainty.
Deutsch wrote:
… nothing can infallibly tell you what is infallible, nor what is probable.
In other words, according to Deutsch, we are completely in the dark. There is only darkness, no light anywhere, not even shades of grey. Needless to say, Deutsch produced yet another self-defeating statement ...Origenes
January 4, 2018
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CR’s fallibilism vs the issue of sufficiently reliable rationality -- headlined.kairosfocus
January 4, 2018
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