According to Allen McNeil the Gallup poll results for American scientists are:
Young-Earth Creationist = 5%
Guided Evolution = 40%
“Naturalistic” Evolution = 55%
For members of the National Academy of Sciences*, the results are:
Young-Earth Creationist = 3%
Guided Evolution = 14%
“Naturalistic” Evolution = 83%
*data from the Cornell Evolution Project, http://www.cornellevolutionproject.org
So here’s how I read it. One in six of the most accomplished living scientists believe in a living God responsible for the creation of mankind.
Pascal compares the risks of belief and disbelief:
1) If I disbelieve in God and I’m wrong, I lose everything.
2) If I disbelieve in God and I’m right, I gain nothing.
3) If I believe in God and I’m wrong, I lose nothing.
4) If I believe in God and I’m right, I gain everything.
The only rational position to take is #4 where you have everything to gain and nothing to lose. That is Pascal’s Wager.
Now if we take our odds of God being real from the greatest living scientists we find the odds of God being real are 1 in 6 (17%). So this is essentially like playing Russian Roulette with a 6-shot revolver with one bullet in it. If you pull the trigger and nothing happens you gain nothing but if you pull the trigger and the gun fires you lose your life. Why play that game? Even if the odds were a thousand or a million to one against getting a bullet in the head why play?