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Climate Change: How to Lie without appearing to Lie

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Here’s almost 40 years of climate models, starting in 1971–when “Global Cooling” was feared, to the Hansen models in the 1980’s, the first in 1981 and the second in 1988, and the last ones by the IPCC, Assessment Reports (AR) from the 1990’s to about 2010.

Notice that the decadal rate of temperature increase remains almost the SAME for the entire 40 year period! And notice how the early models–mostly in the 1970’s when ‘cooling’ was in vogue, are very close to actuals. It’s only when super-duper “climate change models” were devised in the 90’s and later on that the sizable deviations occur.

So, here’s the ‘lie’: these authors claim that climate change models actually stack up quite well to actual temperatures, when, in fact, this is only true because they’ve used very simple models from the 70’s to average out the much larger errors that the super-duper “climate models” are showing. “There are lies, damned lies, and statistics!” And this is statistical averaging and a big lie!

But, theres MORE:

Here’s a quote from the Phys.Org press release:

Climate models are based on two main assumptions. One is the physics of the atmosphere and how it reacts to heat-trapping gases. The other is the amount of greenhouse gases put into the air.

A few times, scientists were wrong in their predictions about the growth of carbon pollution, saying there would be more of the gases than there actually were, Hausfather said. If they got the amount of heat-trapping gases wrong, they then got the temperatures wrong.

So Hausfather and colleagues, including NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt, looked at how well the models did on just the pure science, taking out the emissions factor. On that count, 14 of the 17 computer models accurately predicted the future.

So, if LEAVE OUT the amount of “Greenhouse Gases,” then models become accurate. So, what’s the point of the models, then? What a mockery of science this represents!!

Comments
As to ET’s claim that CO2 is insignificant when compared to water vapor:
It’s true that water vapor is the largest contributor to the Earth’s greenhouse effect. On average, it probably accounts for about 60% of the warming effect. However, water vapor does not control the Earth’s temperature, but is instead controlled by the temperature. This is because the temperature of the surrounding atmosphere limits the maximum amount of water vapor the atmosphere can contain. If a volume of air contains its maximum amount of water vapor and the temperature is decreased, some of the water vapor will condense to form liquid water. This is why clouds form as warm air containing water vapor rises and cools at higher altitudes where the water condenses to the tiny droplets that make up clouds. The greenhouse effect that has maintained the Earth’s temperature at a level warm enough for human civilization to develop over the past several millennia is controlled by non-condensable gases, mainly carbon dioxide, CO2, with smaller contributions from methane, CH4, nitrous oxide, N2O, and ozone, O3. Since the middle of the 20th century, small amounts of man-made gases, mostly chlorine- and fluorine-containing solvents and refrigerants, have been added to the mix. Because these gases are not condensable at atmospheric temperatures and pressures, the atmosphere can pack in much more of these gases . Thus, CO2 (as well as CH4, N2O, and O3) has been building up in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution when we began burning large amounts of fossil fuel. If there had been no increase in the amounts of non-condensable greenhouse gases, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere would not have changed with all other variables remaining the same. The addition of the non-condensable gases causes the temperature to increase and this leads to an increase in water vapor that further increases the temperature. This is an example of a positive feedback effect. The warming due to increasing non-condensable gases causes more water vapor to enter the atmosphere, which adds to the effect of the non-condensables. There is also a possibility that adding more water vapor to the atmosphere could produce a negative feedback effect. This could happen if more water vapor leads to more cloud formation. Clouds reflect sunlight and reduce the amount of energy that reaches the Earth’s surface to warm it. If the amount of solar warming decreases, then the temperature of the Earth would decrease. In that case, the effect of adding more water vapor would be cooling rather than warming. But cloud cover does mean more condensed water in the atmosphere, making for a stronger greenhouse effect than non-condensed water vapor alone – it is warmer on a cloudy winter day than on a clear one. Thus the possible positive and negative feedbacks associated with increased water vapor and cloud formation can cancel one another out and complicate matters. The actual balance between them is an active area of climate science research.
https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/its-water-vapor-not-the-co2.htmlEd George
December 6, 2019
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mimus:
What wavelengths CO2 radiate back to space?
2.7, 4.3 and 15 micrometers. Of those 3 only the 15 um is thermally relevant. It's in the chart you never looked at. Most of the LW IR is unaffected by CO2.ET
December 6, 2019
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Seems like we real useful discussions... Andrew, I can't read for you. But check out the IPCC assessments for the science of attribution ET, What wavelengths CO2 radiate back to space?Mimus
December 6, 2019
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The magnitude of change that is most likely within the margin of error? Too funny. When did temperature recording start- around 1850, right? The little ice age ended around, what, 1850?ET
December 6, 2019
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mimus:
I looked at your graph. I remain convinced human emissions are responsible for the recent increase in temperature.
You do so despite the data, then. CO2 is only relevant at one wavelength. And water vapor also absorbs in that wavelength. It's like saying a cargo net could hold the heat in a room if used as walls. Soot on snow makes it melt even in below freezing temps if the Sun's rays hits it. Every glacier pictured is dirty. Dirty glaciers melt even if the ambient temp < 32F. That said, urban heat islands are real. They can easily skew the data to make it appear warmer. Last year I did a comparison of my local area from 40+ years ago and recent records. They were very close to being identical- temps, precipitation, snow, rain- a person time traveling wouldn't be able to tell the difference if transported to a secluded area between then and now. But that's New England. My cousin lives on the intercoastal water way in Florida- west coast. Lived there for at least 50 years. The water isn't noticeably higher now than it was then. She's been keeping track, for obvious reasons. There are real problems to deal with, such as trash. People like you are preventing us from solving the real problems.ET
December 6, 2019
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Seversky, "Using biomarkers to reconstruct past ocean temperatures, and through ice sheet computer models" Gospel? Andrewasauber
December 6, 2019
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Research reveals past rapid Antarctic ice loss due to ocean warming Seversky
December 6, 2019
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"The weight of evidence, most notably the inabiliy of natural inputs (the sun, volcanoes etc) to explain the magnitude of change. you should read some of it…" Mimus, What evidence are you talking about? This is just claims. Andrewasauber
December 6, 2019
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The weight of evidence, most notably the inabiliy of natural inputs (the sun, volcanoes etc) to explain the magnitude of change. you should read some of it...Mimus
December 6, 2019
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"I ride a bike to work every day, yes. I also limit my air travel, vote for political parties that support systematic change and try to reduce waste in my life." Mimus, Do you realize that none what you listed here has any effect on the climate? Andrewasauber
December 6, 2019
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"I remain convinced human emissions are responsible for the recent increase in temperature." Mimus, Convinced by what? A squiggly line graph? Please tell me you aren't that gullible. Andrewasauber
December 6, 2019
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Hi Andrew, I ride a bike to work every day, yes. I also limit my air travel, vote for political parties that support systematic change and try to reduce waste in my life.Mimus
December 6, 2019
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ET, I looked at your graph. I remain convinced human emissions are responsible for the recent increase in temperature. (Water vapour is an important greenhouse gas, of course. But changes in water vapour don't drive changes in temperature over time. Rather, atmospheric water vapour responds to changes in temperaturre. Sometimes it even falls out the sky as liquid water...)Mimus
December 6, 2019
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Mimus, I seriously doubt you actually believe the nonsense you are trying to defend. So, tell us what you are doing with all this valuable climate info. Riding bikes now? Got an electric car? President of the Greta Fan Club? Eating crickets? Please tell us. Andrewasauber
December 6, 2019
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I thnk it's prefectly obvious to anyone reading this OP that you thought the "lie" was leaving out the emissions effect. Now that you've been corrected you scrabble for the followin. Why didn’t they put the year the model was run in each of the columns? I'm not sure why the Associated Press' graphic doesn't have that info. The figure in the paper and a senior author's blog do And why didn’t they include the latest Assessment Report from the IPCC? Why didn’t they include the last three? Yes! Why didn't those lyin climate scientists test the long-term accuracy of their models on 3 years of data! There has only been on AR since the 2007 one included in this sudy, so don't know where the other two you think exist are. They show only 14, 9 of which are from 1971 to 1988. Hansen’s 1988 has 3 temperatures, and the saving grace is the last of the three, which balances the first two. So, let’s throw that out, and we have 9 out of 13 of these models that are “accurate,” come from 1971 to 1981, a time when “global cooling” was the prevailing view. This is “bait-and-switch.” "Global cooling" was never the prevailing view among climate scientists. Even if it was, the question is do the models work. The answer is yes. And, Bob, why don’t you comment on the very obvious result that the “observed” rate of temperature increase has not changed in over 40 years! If you want ot look a the rate of temperature increase you should just look at the temperature record, trying to find a trend in a series of overlapping intervals of varying lengths us really the best way to do it. Even then, remember when numbskulls like Barry Arrington used to trot out the "no warming since 1995" meme? Turns out only has there been warming, it's been trucking along at close to .2C per decade most of the time...Mimus
December 6, 2019
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Bob O'H:
After years of hearing critics blast the models' accuracy, climate scientist Zeke Hausfather decided to see just how good they have been. He tracked down 17 models used between 1970 and 2007 and found that the majority of them predicted results that were "indistinguishable from what actually occurred."
You see, Bob, the "majority" of the models got it right. So, the conclusion is that climate models do a good job. That's the lie. Why didn't they put the year the model was run in each of the columns? Why didn't they tell us how many are from 1971 to 1981 and those that came later? And why didn't they include the latest Assessment Report from the IPCC? Why didn't they include the last three? To fool the casual reader. They show only 14, 9 of which are from 1971 to 1988. Hansen's 1988 has 3 temperatures, and the saving grace is the last of the three, which balances the first two. So, let's throw that out, and we have 9 out of 13 of these models that are "accurate," coming from 1971 to 1981, a time when "global cooling" was the prevailing view. This is "bait-and-switch." And, Bob, why don't you comment on the very obvious result that the "observed" rate of temperature increase has not change in over 40 years! From a time when "global cooling" was in vogue, to a time when "global warming" is the cry (though they call it "climate change" because of embarassment), the rate stays the same. What do you think? As a scientist, what is this telling you? If you're unable to answer these questions, then I have nothing more I can say.PaV
December 6, 2019
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Myself and two friends between us will pick the winner of every NFL game this week and for the rest of the season , in each game I will pick the home team my friend will pick the visiting team and my other friend will pick a tie , I think that will cover it.This is all the IPCC and their cohorts do, they do enough models so one of them has to be right and then they can say see we predicted this.Its the same with the so called unprecedented weather events more rain , less rain, more snow, less snow, more storms less storms , they have models and papers to cover all these eventualities.In the last 150 years temperature has perhaps risen 1 deg c in that time we live longer , less and less people live in poverty and deaths caused by bad or catastrophic weather events has fallen by 95% so why the scare tactics , its all about money , power, control.Marfin
December 6, 2019
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"You should ask a climate scientist that." Bob O'H So you claim climate scientists "have learned much more about the climate" but can't tell me what it was that they learned? Then how do you know they really learned anything? Little birdie whispered in your ear? Andrewasauber
December 6, 2019
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You should ask a climate scientist that.Bob O'H
December 6, 2019
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Bob O'H, What have they learned? Andrewasauber
December 6, 2019
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Because climate scientists have learned much more about the climate and how it works. And computational power has also increased, so they are able to look at more complex phenomena, and at a finer scale.Bob O'H
December 6, 2019
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If climate scientists know what they are doing, why 17 climate models and not just 1 or 2? Andrewasauber
December 6, 2019
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PaV @ 1 - The earthquakes in California didn't release much lava, so I've no idea how you expect that to be relevant. The paper looks at an event where a lava plain 3 times the size of California was formed. Modern day volcanoes are nowhere near as spectacular.Bob O'H
December 6, 2019
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Gavin Schmidt and Zeke Hausfather have been known climate scammers for decades. Do you think that they are going to present anything that says they were wrong all these years? These people are criminals. They have no qualms about lying, then lying some more, and then continuing to lie after that. Andrewasauber
December 6, 2019
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So, here’s the ‘lie’: these authors claim that climate change models actually stack up quite well to actual temperatures, when, in fact, this is only true because they’ve used very simple models from the 70’s to average out the much larger errors that the super-duper “climate models” are showing.
Sorry, but it's not clear what you mean - what averaging are you talking about? I can't see where the authors do any averaging over the models.
So, if LEAVE OUT the amount of “Greenhouse Gases,” then models become accurate.
As Mimus has pointed out, you've interpreted this incorrectly. To make the projections into the future, the authors of the original studies had to make some assumptions about how C=2 concentrations would change (this isn't itself modelled: it's an input into the model). Some of the authors got these projections wrong, so their predictions about temperature were wrong because their assumptions about human activity were wrong, not their climate models. It makes sense, hten to correct this.Bob O'H
December 6, 2019
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mimus- look at the chart I linked to in comment 2. CO2 is not the problem. You have to be a desperate liar to say otherwise given that dataET
December 6, 2019
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"leave out the emissions"is not a very good way to describe what this study really did. Instead, that measured the model's accuracy at predicting temperature for the observed changes on forcings (mostly CO2). This is required as some models are inaccurate re: observed temps in part because the overestimated how much CO2 we'd emit.Mimus
December 6, 2019
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PaV @ 1- The hypothesis for the end of snowball earth pertained to volcanos. What they spewed helped melt some of the ice sheets but the greenhouse gasses produced elevated the atmospheric temps. Which, along with tons of soot, melted the ice packs.ET
December 5, 2019
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Anyone who can look @ The GHG absorption/ emission spectrum and come away with "CO2 is a driver of global temperatures", is definitely on an agenda of deception. Take away the humidity, as with a desert, and the earth heats up, not because of GHG's, but from the lack of moisture in the air. At night, there is still CO2 but it still gets cold very quickly, because there isn't any moisture to hold the heat.ET
December 5, 2019
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Without doing another post, here's the latest: VOLCANIC ROCK affects CLIMATE CHANGE: Read all about it at Phys.Org. How about this for making a complete mockery of current "climate science."
Greenhouse gas emissions released directly from the movement of volcanic rocks are capable of creating massive global warming effects—a discovery which could transform the way scientists predict climate change, a new study reveals. Scientists' calculations based on how carbon-based greenhouse gas levels link to movements of magma just below earth's surface suggest that such geological change has caused the largest temporary global warming of the past 65 million years.
For ten years, I've been saying that volcanic activity is related to temperature increases. Our modern warming trend began in the early 1800's, a time of many earthquakes in California. I believe there is a direct link between earthquake activity and volcanic activity.PaV
December 5, 2019
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