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The spreading of corona virus

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UK’s Daily Mail reports:

They also provide a map:

A concern is that mild cases are masked under the common cold, and that the incubation period may be up to four weeks or thereabouts, not the fortnight that has been used hitherto. They are not finding a “patient zero” for some of these outbreaks, which is why there is talk of un-traceability and climbing towards pandemic.

On the design front there is speculation that the genome has traces of engineering, and that people may have not been incinerating animals in a biological lab near Wuhan, but illegally disposing of them in the bush meat trade. Speculation, not confirmation.

It will be interesting to see the criteria by which they might detect engineering. However, the very fact that there is a thought that such can be identified, is interesting. So, then, what of the use of coded language and algorithms in DNA, from the outset of cell based life?

Something, to keep an eye on. END

36 Replies to “The spreading of corona virus

  1. 1
    kairosfocus says:

    The spreading of corona virus

  2. 2
    Ed George says:

    I understand the initial concern over any new virus infecting humans. What is the lethality rate? How is it spread? How did it originate? What I don’t understand is that the death rate associated with the flu is much greater than the caronavirus, yet we don’t close the borders because of it.

  3. 3
    ET says:

    We don’t know the death rate because China hasn’t released the actual numbers. That means the comment in 2 is just nonsense.

    Death rate from COVID-19 is 2.3%. For the flu it’s 0.1%

  4. 4
    jstanley01 says:

    Ed George @2
    Because the actual death rate is almost five times higher than the 2 percent that is being circulated everywhere, including on this thread. And I am figuring that higher death rate according to the official numbers, with the vast majority of cases still being reported out of Communist China.

    Using the official numbers that Johns Hopkins has posted as I write: The total number of cases is 78,881 out of which 2,446 victims have died. And yes, 2,446 is 3.1 percent of 78,881 — which is higher than 2 percent, but not worryingly so.

    The only problem with that percentage result for the death rate is that it could not be more wrong. Because that is not how to figure a death rate, no more so than you would figure the injury rate among drivers during this year’s Daytona 500 before the last lap.

    Death rates are determined, not against the total number of cases, but against the number of cases that have resolved, one way or the other; either by recovery or by death. So out of 78,891 total cases, 2,446 patients have died and 23,386 have recovered, for a death rate of 9.5 percent.

    By the way that death rate, as I am figuring it, is within an acceptable margin of error to the 11 percent death rate which was observed among 99 cases that were resolved in Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital from Jan 1 to Jan 20, 2020 as reported by Lancet.

  5. 5
    ET says:

    “Ed George” must have been talking about the Spanish flu.

  6. 6
    Truthfreedom says:

    Ed George the polymath. He enlightens us in every thread, and I mean, every thread.
    Religion, evolution, geology, infectious diseases, abortion, history, philosophy, politics, homosexuality (his personal obsession), etc etc… Nothing escapes him.
    He even has threads where he talks to himself.
    We are so lucky!

  7. 7
    JVL says:

    I’m not saying some of the concerns and issues raised by commenters are not important or valid but I hope you all are aware that The Daily Mail is considered just above a tabloid. It frequently sells newspapers by scaring its readers. It was one of the papers strongly supporting Brexit.

    Just saying: look at its reporting with a very skeptical eye.

  8. 8
    kairosfocus says:

    JVL, this is a fairly straight news story, and DM happens to often do useful bullet headers and infographics. That’s why I used it; it is within the general run of media reports. And these days almost the whole media has been tabloidised. I specifically include BBC which just is not what it once was. Use with caution is now a general advice. KF

    PS: Brexit was by peasant, hinterland revolt. It was resisted then was again voted for in a general election. The electoral map is of a hinterland ballot box uprising.

  9. 9
    kairosfocus says:

    JS, yup, that is a metric. I have seen a proxy that we assume a month resolves [you die or are on recovery road once you go symptomatic] and compare cumulative deaths now to infections a month ago. Those ratios will be a lot higher than deaths to date vs infections to date. I have two further concerns, under-reporting by China and mild cases confused for ordinary colds etc. The latter may explain the no patient zero clusters and if so that might be how this thing just might break out of containment efforts. Recall, it is infectious for even those without symptoms. KF

    PS: On Wiki’s timeline chart, reported cases in China c Jan 23 were 870 or so. Deaths to today for China show 2,200+ dead.

  10. 10
    JVL says:

    KF, 8: Brexit was by peasant, hinterland revolt. It was resisted then was again voted for in a general election. The electoral map is of a hinterland ballot box uprising.

    Opinions vary widely and the Daily Mail is strongly to one side. I’m just saying: be careful with their reporting, it’s usually quite bias.

  11. 11
    kairosfocus says:

    JVL, currently, for cause I hold ALL general media significantly biased and untrustworthy, I used, tabloidised above and specifically included BBC. KF

    PS: On brexit simply look at the map of the election. Scotland and NI basically went to national parties, main urban centres were mostly Labour, the hinterlands of especially England were Tory blue; with a populist leader. A very similar pattern obtains for the US in 2016 and I expect the same 2020. There is a peasant revolt at the ballot box. At least, it’s not pitchforks, rails, feathers and pine tar.

  12. 12
    Latemarch says:

    At least, it’s not pitchforks, rails, feathers and pine tar. Yet.

  13. 13
    kairosfocus says:

    LM, sadly, yes. We are already seeing a sense of entitlement to rule over hoi polloi by a nomenklatura. That is not sustainable. KF

  14. 14
    Axel says:

    I believe the past two elections were stolen by the Tory ‘deep state’ (togeher with its ‘noise-machine’, the MSM). And one Labour leader murdered not that long ago.

    The Tories were, I believe, determined to claw back the gains in economic justice for the public, won by Labour with its creation of the welfare-state, following the disgrace of the right, with its enthusiasm for the European, fascist leaders. That is, until suddenly that monster, though gifted leader, Stalin, suddenly became our cuddly Uncle Joe. Incredible silence about Spain and Portugal after the war. – not to speak of South America, of course.

  15. 15
    Jammer says:

    One of the MVPs of this whole situation has been Dr. John Campbell over on YouTube. He’s gained a large (300,000+), rapidly-growing following for laying out clear, sensible explanations for what’s going on, and what to expect. He’s worth a watch, although his tone has taken a worrying turn lately. He now seems certain that we’re on the brink of a pandemic, and is worried the strain of the virus in Iran may have mutated for the worse (9 deaths in 43 confirmed cases).

    On the plus side, if you look at the list of YouTube channels he’s subscribed to, you’ll be pleasantly surprised. I know I was.

  16. 16
    JVL says:

    KF, 13: sadly, yes. We are already seeing a sense of entitlement to rule over hoi polloi by a nomenklatura. That is not sustainable.

    I think that is clearly NOT what is happening in the UK.

    The ‘populist’ uprising is lead in the UK by Boris Johnson who was educated at the finest schools in the country (very expensive) and considers himself above the ‘hoi polloi’.

    Read the Public Personae, Personal Life and Relationship sections of his Wikipedia article.

    “[Johnson] is blessed with immense charisma, wit, sex appeal and celebrity gold dust; he is also recognised and loved by millions—although perhaps less so by many who have had to work closely with him (let alone depend on him). Resourceful, cunning and strategic, he can pull off serious political coups when the greater good happens to coincide with his personal advantage but these aspirations are rarely backed up by concrete achievements, or even detailed plans.” Furthermore, Purnell noted that Johnson was a “highly evasive figure” when it came to his personal life, who remained detached from others and who had very few if any intimate friends. Among friends and family, Johnson is known as “Al” (short for Alexander, his real first name) rather than “Boris”. Gimson stated that Johnson “has very bad manners. He tends to be late, does not care about being late, and dresses without much care”. Highly ambitious and very competitive, Johnson was, Gimson noted, born “to wage a ceaseless struggle for supremacy”. He would be particularly angered with those he thought insulted aspects of his personal life; for instance, when an article in The Telegraph upset Johnson he emailed commissioning editor Sam Leith with the simple message “F*** off and die.” Thus, Purnell notes, Johnson hides his ruthlessness “using bumbling, self-deprecation or humour”, adding that he was a fan of “laddish banter and crude sexual references”.


    In 1987, he married Allegra Mostyn-Owen, daughter of the art historian William Mostyn-Owen and Italian writer Gaia Servadio. The couple’s marriage was annulled in 1993 and twelve days later Johnson married Marina Wheeler, a barrister and daughter of journalist and broadcaster Charles Wheeler and his wife, Dip Singh. Five weeks later, Wheeler and Johnson’s first child was born. The Wheeler and Johnson families have known each other for decades, and Marina Wheeler was at the European School, Brussels, at the same time as her future husband. They have four children: two daughters and two sons.

    Between 2000 and 2004, Johnson had an affair with Spectator columnist Petronella Wyatt when he was its editor, resulting in two terminated pregnancies. In April 2006, the News of the World alleged that Johnson was having an affair with Guardian journalist Anna Fazackerley. The pair refused to comment and shortly afterwards Johnson employed Fazackerley.

    In 2009, Johnson fathered a daughter with Helen MacIntyre, an arts consultant. In 2013, the Court of Appeal quashed an injunction seeking to ban reporting of his daughter’s existence. The judge ruled that the public had a right to know about Johnson’s “reckless” behaviour.

    In September 2018, Johnson and Wheeler issued a statement confirming that after 25 years of marriage they had separated “several months ago”, and had begun divorce proceedings. They reached a financial settlement in February 2020.

    In 2019, The Sunday Times reported that, in 2013, Johnson had a sexual relationship with American technology entrepreneur Jennifer Arcuri.

    In 2019 Johnson was living with Carrie Symonds, the daughter of Matthew Symonds, a co-founder of The Independent newspaper, and Josephine McAfee, a lawyer. Symonds had worked for the Conservative party since 2009 and worked on Johnson’s 2012 campaign to be re-elected as Mayor.

    He’s an elitist who has learned to play the populist movement like a conductor.

  17. 17
    Bob O'H says:

    kf @ 11 –

    Scotland and NI basically went to national parties, main urban centres were mostly Labour, the hinterlands of especially England were Tory blue; with a populist leader. A very similar pattern obtains for the US in 2016 and I expect the same 2020. There is a peasant revolt at the ballot box. At least, it’s not pitchforks, rails, feathers and pine tar.

    As a British citizen who’s followed UK politics for some time, what you describe is pretty much how the UK always votes.

  18. 18
    jstanley01 says:

    People are noting that this is the third worldwide viral outbreak that has originated in China in the last 25 years – Bird flu (1996), SARS (2003), COVID-19 (2019) – and are wondering why. Actually, the best hypothesis is no secret and quite straightforward, although looking at the reporting, too much ignored. It is that the animal-to-human jumps occurred in all three instances at Chinese wet markets.

    China is a country with a 1st-World superstructure built on top of a 3rd-World foundation. It has gleaming skyscrapers and high speed rail, but nowhere is the tap water potable. It has massive factories which provide the whole world with components and final goods, but its food distribution system remains medieval. (I won’t talk about its sanitation system here. You’re welcome.)

    China’s wealthier environs have grocery stores, but its wet markets are as common as convenience stores are in America. People in China are used to, and like, buying for their daily needs on a daily basis rather than stocking up weekly. In a Chinese wet market, refrigeration is unknown, meat hangs raw, and “to guarantee freshness,” animals are often slaughtered on the spot. Then at the end of the day, the offal from the day’s operations is hosed down the street drains. In short, these joints make ideal venues for occurrences of animal-to-human cross infection.

    By the way, I can’t think of any worse excuses for human beings than the people who are attempting to make political hay out of this pandemic, such as Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas. That would be the “honorable gentleman” who appeared on Tee Vee all over the channel guide to lend credence to the claim that the virus came from a Chinese research lab. His evidence? All the members of the original coronavirus cluster could not be traced back to that one Wuhan wet market, as if there were only one wet market in the city of Wuham. In my book, the guy ought to be taken out and horse whipped.

  19. 19
    jstanley01 says:

    FYI, I just noticed that public access to the Johns Hopkins dashboard that I linked in my first post has been terminated. It’s asking for a sign-in now. However, there is a similar WHO dashboard still publicly available. But the problem with it is that it reports Total Cases and Deaths, but not the Recovered number.

    If I were paranoid, I’d theorize that the omission of the Recovered number is being done deliberately so freelancers such as myself can’t do the math to figure out the current Death Rate. Yeah well, just because I’m paranoid doesn’t mean they aren’t out to get me.

    But whatever the case, this appears to be another instance of the trend to limit the information available to the general public, a policy favored first and foremost by the Communist Chinese government. It’s a bad idea, folks. That is, unless you want officials’ clandestine coverups and the theories of tinfoil conspiracists to go viral with the virus.

  20. 20
    mike1962 says:

    8000 deaths so far thus influenza season in the USA. We’ve seen SARS, Zika, H5N3 avian. Vitamin D seems to suppress all of them. (Why is this not widely known?) The huge death numbers never materialized. Okay, back to normal life…. until further notice. (P.S. take 6000 UIs of D every day.)

  21. 21
    Ed George says:


    8000 deaths so far thus influenza season in the USA. We’ve seen SARS, Zika, H5N3 avian. Vitamin D seems to suppress all of them. (Why is this not widely known?) The huge death numbers never materialized. Okay, back to normal life…. until further notice. (P.S. take 6000 UIs of D every day.)

    Just a word of caution. When you suggest that the flu is a greater risk than the coronavirus, there are some willfully ignorant people here who will start calling you names.

  22. 22
    ET says:

    Leave it to “Ed George” to spew a lie and play the victim of that lie.

    The only thing said was that the death rate for COVID-19 is higher than that of the flu. The flu is here. Thankfully COVID-19’s presence is very, very, very limited here. So of course there is a greater risk at getting the flu than there is COVID-19- thankfully. No one suggested otherwise.

    Nice own goal, mr. willful ignorance

  23. 23
    ET says:

    41,000 flu related deaths out of 41,000,000 flu illnesses. 1 in a 1000 CDC estimates

    Look @ comment 3

  24. 24
    kairosfocus says:

    BO’H: The cultural divides are there; which is my core point. Though, SNP is a fairly recent player. Labour knocked out the Tories in Scotland by the ’97 wipeout. Now, SNP has knocked out Labour, though it looks like Liberals (of all people) are back a bit there. And for whoever pointed out that BJ has Oxbridge type background, the champion/ sponsor hoi polloi pick (for whatever reason) may be patrician. That goes back at least to the Romans. In the US peasant rebellion in the 1770’s [and that was with muskets mainly not Kentucky rifles], their champion was one of the Virginia elite, Washington. KF

  25. 25
    kairosfocus says:

    JS01, you left off the families living with animals and the taste for bush meat. That is said to be a factor in C Africa where other threatened pandemics have emerged. KF

    PS The speculation I saw is noted in OP.

  26. 26
    JVL says:

    KF, 24:

    You do realise that ‘hoi polloi’ usually has negative connotations?

    From Wikipedia:

    In English, it has been given a negative connotation to signify deprecation of the working class, commoners, the masses or common people in a derogatory or (more often today) ironic sense. Synonyms for hoi polloi, which also express the same or similar distaste for the common people felt by those who believe themselves to be superior, include “the plebeians” or “plebs”, “the rabble”, “the masses”, “the dregs of society”, “riffraff”, “the herd”, “the canaille”, “the proles” (proletariat), “the great unwashed”, and “peons”.

    Perhpas you meant to be disparaging? I’m not sure to be honest. I thought you were supportive of the populist movements. Maybe that impression was incorrect. That would change the way I interpreted your comments.

  27. 27
    kairosfocus says:

    JVL, very much so. there is a tendency of elites to disdain the ordinary person and his/her common sense. This leads to a politics of manipulation, indoctrination and outright deceit. Note, Plato’s analysis in Ship of State, in which the people are the strong but half- blind, half- deaf and technically incapable owner/captain, and the manipulative pols are the mutinous, looter crew. Breaking out of that trap has been one of the major challenges of governance for 2500 years or more. the best solution I know is sound primary and secondary education systems backed up by sound newspapers [yes, old fashioned print] that serve as the people’s college and watchdogs, promoting sound public opinion. That is what has become increasingly subverted in our time. With sadly predictable consequences, if unchecked. KF

    PS: I notice a term conspicuous by absence from Wikipedia: deplorables.

  28. 28
    JVL says:

    KF, 27:

    Again, I’m not sure why you chose to use the term “hoi polloi”. We’re you personally casting aspirations on the “common folk” or making fun of those who do? I’m guess the later . . . but it’s not completely clear.

  29. 29
    kairosfocus says:

    JVL, The basic disrespect for the ordinary person is indefensible and yet all too common. Don’t forget, Christian probably was not originally a term of respect. KF

  30. 30
    JVL says:

    KF, 29: The basic disrespect for the ordinary person is indefensible and yet all too common.

    Thank you for making that clear. That’s what took me awhile to realise must be the case. You sometimes make your points in ways dissimilar to my own style and, in this case, I wanted to be sure of your implications.

    My fear is that Boris Johnson, in particular, doesn’t really care about the ordinary people in Great Britain and is just pursuing his boyhood ambition to be Prime Minister. We’ll know more later, hopefully before the common good is set back. Even more hopefully the PM really is the person he claims to be.

    Anyway, we can leave the topic for now.

  31. 31
    Jim Thibodeau says:

    The CDC is estimating the mortality rate at about 3.2%. It’s really hard to say, because of the 80,000 cases mostly in China, 50,000 of them haven’t resolved yet. The WHO and some other institutions are estimating that this will be a global pandemic that could infect between 40 and 70% of the world’s population. If you’re an elderly male or a smoker you should be very concerned.

  32. 32
    kairosfocus says:

    JT, those are serious numbers. KF

  33. 33
    Jim Thibodeau says:

    Trump is canceling flights between the US and Europe, the NBA just suspended the season because a player got it, the DJIA has fallen 20% and during Trump’s speech tonight Dow futures went from positive to negative. We’ve tested fewer than 10,000 people and we’ve got over 1300 confirmed cases here now.

    Epidemiologists are now estimating between 20 and 50% of Americans will get it. And the Trump administration is in court trying to get millions of people’s ACA policies cancelled.

  34. 34
    Jim Thibodeau says:

    Dow Futures on Globex were up 200 before Trump’s speech. During & after Trump talked the futures fell 1,000 points and hit a ‘circuit breaker’ and trading was halted.

  35. 35
    Ed George says:

    There is no doubt that Trump has bungled this. He is more worried about how it affects his re-election than how it affects the lives of millions of citizens.

  36. 36
    ET says:

    How has Trump bungled this? Any coward can make false accusations.

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