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The Peppered Zombie rises at Exeter: Some curious responses

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Peppered moth
Researchers created artificial moths to test camouflage

A story here yesterday noted the recent attempt at Exeter U to resurrect the idea that the varying prevalence of light and dark moths is a dramatic demonstration of evolution in action. Like its many predecessors, it demonstrates nothing except what we might expect: The more visible moth will be spotted and eaten sooner.

But it’s the understory that matters: Schoolchildren are asked to believe that, by the same power of natural selection, cows become whales over time. Not only is the implicit claim not demonstrated by the data from nature; it isn’t even implied by the data from nature. The variable population distribution mechanism already existed in the moths’ genes, perhaps for millions of years, and did not change over time. The output of the mechanism, consistent with its function, is observed to change with regional conditions. The change provides no obvious basis for more complex developments.

That is why Darwinism must be taught to the young and impressionable, preferably by people who cannot afford to doubt the system that affords them a social status and a living.

Now look at some of the attempts here yesterday to defend the peppered myth:

2. But that is evolution. Perhaps not impressive in the grand scheme of things, but it’s still evolution (by natural selection, no less).

If so, then we have here a demonstration that evolution by natural selection produces insignificant changes. If that fact, advertised, justifies the fanfare heard at Exeter, top figures in evolutionary biology are clearly and obviously wrong to attribute significant changes to the Darwinian mechaism of natural selection acting on random mutations.

8. [quoting the OP] “The controversy was over whether the shifting proportions can properly be called a form of “evolution.” Most people reasonably expect ‘evolution’ to produce significant and probably irreversible changes, for example, turning dinosaurs into birds.”

If this is true, then most people ought to learn what evolution means. Also, the evolution of non-bird dinosaurs into birds took a bit longer than the few decades it took for peppered moths to arise and dominate the population.

“What evolution means,” it would seem from the commenter’s defense, is insignificant changes that are postulated to lead to significant ones. Not demonstrated, merely postulated. There is a world of difference between the two states of evidence.

The second sentence illustrates that beautifully: “Also, the evolution of non-bird dinosaurs into birds took a bit longer than the few decades it took for peppered moths to arise and dominate the population.” Actually, we have no reason to believe that such a complex transition happened in a Darwinian way at all, especially considering that the insignificant variation in moth wing colors is apparently the best type of evidence Darwinian theory can come up with.

Also at 8: They had to use fake moths because that’s the only way you could conceivably do a controlled experiment. But there is very strong evidence that natural selection drives the frequency of the different morphs, and indeed that moths spend plenty of time on tree trunks and branches during the day (http://rsbl.royalsocietypublis…..nt/8/4/609).

If the phenomenon is as common as the commenter claims, it is easy to conceive of a controlled experiment that does not require dead or fake test subjects.

“there is very strong evidence that natural selection drives the frequency of the different morphs”?* Of course.  No one doubts it. It’s the implicit claim that such processes account for much more complex changes (birds to dinosaurs) that is contested.

And the people who defend the uncontested claim surely have, as their purpose, a  defense of the contested implicit claim — because the uncontested claim is, as we might expect, nothing in itself. The dodgy parts are no worse than those most so many Darwinian claims.

Most Darwinian believers, so far as we can see, do not require their claims to be sound. They require only that they be enforced and that alternatives be silenced. Thus do obscure school systems in the United States make the pages of Nature.
.
Clearly, if it were not for the hold that Darwinism has on the minds of some, this zombie would not stalk the storied groves of Exeter. We are looking at a social phenomenon here, to which the science is incidental.

*As the OP relates, the evidence that moths naturally rest in positions where they are exposed to predators is contested within the discipline.

See also: Wow! The peppered myth: A Darwin zombie rises again The Exeter researchers report, “In the experiment using artificial moths, lighter models had a 21% higher chance of “surviving” (not being eaten by birds).” So their point seems to be that, if moths actually rested in open areas, they would be better off to be lighter models.

Comments
For the truly interested: Here, but also here,and here. From the last link:
Moths that landed on less cryptic positions were more likely to reposition. • This suggests that moths adaptively respond to their current crypticity.
PaV
August 31, 2018
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Here's a follow-up study. They write:
In summary, we show that visual information is crucial for assuming adaptive body orientations, although we cannot precisely determine whether this is because vision is used to perceive the bark structure or simply because light is needed to trigger the re-positioning behaviour. We also show that the tactile information from wings may be important for accurately perceiving the direction of bark structure.
PaV
August 31, 2018
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There are problems with the paper. (1) the placement of the live and artificial moths (2) the manner of simulating the vision of predator birds, and others. As to (1), look here, for example. Further, Majerus' paper suffers from a potentially severe fault: the numbers match predictions "too" closely---almost as if the numbers were calculated and then included, rather than observing alone. I don't remember Majerus having two columns; that is, one for "actual," and one for "calculated."PaV
August 31, 2018
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If we say that natural selection can’t do anything then we undermine our arguments from probability and irreducible complexity.
hnorman5, I will grant you that I think this deserves angle more discussion, but the fact remains that 'Natural Selection' has been and remains what amounts to a longstanding Big Lie. Andrewasauber
August 24, 2018
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asauber @ 40 The problem goes back to the two senses of the word "selection." For an intelligent agent, there's selection from pre-existing variation and there's selection for a goal. Survival events can mimic the former but not the latter.hnorman5
August 24, 2018
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asauber @ 40 The problem goes back to the two senses of the word "selection". For an intelligent agent, there's selection from pre-existing variation and there's selection for a goal. Blind forces can mimic the first but not the second. I was being ironic when I said that NS could select for traits that didn't get the organism killed, but trivial as is, it does model a weak type of selection. If we say that natural selection can't do anything then we undermine our arguments from probability and irreducible complexity. These arguments are necessary precisely because blind forces do have some limited powers to mimic purposeful change and we need to define what those limits are.hnorman5
August 24, 2018
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goodusername: If breeders can bring about “a change in heritable characteristics of a biological population” in the 'blink of an eye' (relative to geological time), then artificial selection seems to be even more powerful than NS. So, why is it that breeders have never been able to convert a dog into anything other than a 'race' of dogs? (In fact, the St. Bernard is an example of the limits of such breeding---they need special care, since they are very feeble when they are born. That's why they are no longer 'bred' at the Abbey of Gran St. Bernard anymore.)PaV
August 24, 2018
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natural selection will select
hnorman5, But it won't. You even said so yourself. There is no precognition. It's just what happens. Its bad poetry intended to imply that there are things going on that really aren't going on. It's deliberate deception. Andrewasauber
August 24, 2018
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Page 118 of "What Evolution Is" by Ernst Mayr:
Do selection and elimination differ in their evolutionary consequences? This question never seems to have been raised in the evolutionary literature. A process of selection would have a concrete objective, the determination of the “best” or “fittest” phenotype. Only a relatively few individuals in a given generation would qualify and survive the selection procedure. That small sample would be only to be able to preserve only a small amount of the whole variance of the parent population. Such survival selection would be highly restrained. By contrast, mere elimination of the less fit might permit the survival of a rather large number of individuals because they have no obvious deficiencies in fitness. Such a large sample would provide, for instance, the needed material for the exercise of sexual selection. This also explains why survival is so uneven from season to season. The percentage of the less fit would depend on the severity of each year’s environmental conditions.
What evos do with that is say that "selecting" the top 3%, for example, is the same as eliminating the bottom 97%. Which is true but that isn't what we see in nature and goes against what Mayr wrote.ET
August 23, 2018
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ET @37 You've hit the nail right on the head. Natural selection does not select. It merely eliminates. Unfortunately, many people can't see that although real selection by an intelligent agent is expressed by elimination, elimination is only the end result of the intelligent act of selection. Elimination itself cannot double for the creative act of selection.hnorman5
August 23, 2018
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Natural selection doesn't select. NS is an eliminative process. AND it entails happenstance changesET
August 23, 2018
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asauber @29 Yes, natural selection will select for traits that don't get the organism killed. Going beyond this gets it in trouble.hnorman5
August 23, 2018
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Ambly:
A very eloquent demonstration of the fact you are not at all angry about this, ET.
Yeah, liars, like you, tend to bug me, Ambly pambly. Especially when they lie about me. CongratulationsET
August 23, 2018
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A very eloquent demonstration of the fact you are not at all angry about this, ET.Amblyrhynchus
August 23, 2018
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Ambly:
ET’s string of posts yesterday is a nice demonstration of the sorts of knots that creationists tie themselves up in when they talk about the peppered moths.
Maybe in your uneducated opinion. However you have reading comprehension issues
* ET take the typical reponse that the observed changes are small and the sort of thing creationsists think selection can achieve
WRONG
* They then get abosolutely apopletic about the methods used in the paper
WRONG
* It’s very clear form their responses that they have not read the paper and are simply regurgitating talking poitns that go back to Wells’ hack job of a book chapter.
WRONG
They then spend about 10 comments getting progressively angrier, wronger, and stupider about the fact cameras can be used in science (something no one has disagreed with).
Any anger and stupidity is all yours. YOU threw a hissy fit when I mentioned cameras, technology and capturing reality.
If the changes exhibited by the peppered moths are so trivial and non-threatening to creationists, why do they so frequently get so angry with them?
Already explained. See you have reading comprehension issues and you think your ignorance is an argument.ET
August 23, 2018
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ET's string of posts yesterday is a nice demonstration of the sorts of knots that creationists tie themselves up in when they talk about the peppered moths. A very brief recap: * ET take the typical reponse that the observed changes are small and the sort of thing creationsists think selection can achieve * They then get abosolutely apopletic about the methods used in the paper * It's very clear form their responses that they have not read the paper and are simply regurgitating talking poitns that go back to Wells' hack job of a book chapter. * They then spend about 10 comments getting progressively angrier, wronger, and stupider about the fact cameras can be used in science (something no one has disagreed with). So, I'm left to wonder. If the changes exhibited by the peppered moths are so trivial and non-threatening to creationists, why do they so frequently get so angry with them?Amblyrhynchus
August 23, 2018
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PaV, Yes, I would say so, albeit a population that’s artificially maintained and was created via artificial selection.goodusername
August 23, 2018
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goodusername: In your opinion, are 'St. Bernard' dogs an instance of "a change in heritable characteristics of a biological population"? [Back in four hours]PaV
August 23, 2018
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a trait that gets an organism killed will get it killed
Kinda like a car that's going to get in an accident will get in an accident? Or a cake that is going to be served for a birthday is going to be a birthday cake? God help us. Andrewasauber
August 23, 2018
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PaV,
Well, which “definition” of “evolution” do you think is at work in this case?
Again, I’m not sure if I understand your question. Are you asking what definition of “evolution” is being used by the authors of the article? I imagine that the article is probably using a definition like “a change in heritable characteristics of a biological population,” or some such.
You say you’re aware of these different definitions; so, in your opinion, given the specifics from the article, how is evolution at work here?
Well, whether or not it even is “evolution at work” would depend on the definition being used. In my opinion, this case appears to be a change in the heritable characteristics of a population via selection.goodusername
August 23, 2018
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hnorman5- Natural selection needs the variation to arise by chance. If it didn't then regardless of predation it isn't natural selection. Natural selection depends on how the traits were created. The first step is the variation which has to be a chance event.ET
August 23, 2018
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As to whether natural selection can on principle be responsible for industrial melanism, I would tend to concede the point. I have never thought it was advisable to argue against the proposition that a trait that gets an organism killed will get it killed. We recently had some discussion over the difference between selection from existing options and selection for a goal. The peppered moth explanation would, if true, be the poster child for the former. It is important to realize that the peppered moth explanation only addresses how existing traits are propagated, not how the traits are created.hnorman5
August 23, 2018
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goodusername:
I know there are different definitions of “evolution” out there – I don’t know what the definition “should” be, and in this case I don’t really care.
Well, which "definition" of "evolution" do you think is at work in this case? You say you're aware of these different definitions; so, in your opinion, given the specifics from the article, how is evolution at work here? P.S. Gone all day yesterday.PaV
August 23, 2018
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Everything You Need To Know Abut Natural Selection- 1. 'Natural' is not a scientific term. It's poetry. 2. 'Selection' is just what happens. There is no selecting being done. So there you have it. Andrewasauber
August 23, 2018
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To recap- my comment in #5 above was in response to the nonsense posted in comment #4 by Ambly/ William spearshake/ acartia bogart. In it I mentioned the use of cameras and other technologies to capture what really happens as opposed to staged scenarios that may of most likely may not represent reality. Ambly had an issue with this, misrepresented what I said and couldn't believe that I would even suggest such a thing. I countered with the fact that cameras are used to make scientific discoveries. They are quite useful, actually. In comment #13 Ambly misrepresents what I posted and somehow hand-waved the use of cameras in science away. This was followed by acartia bogart posting victory for Ambly over at the swamp. To acartia victory = who muddies the waters and says nothing of substance the longest.ET
August 22, 2018
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In the paper they are claiming this as an example of natural selection. However unless they can show that the variation arose by chance they cannot make that claim. Strike 1 Strike 2 is putting the moths on the tree trunksET
August 22, 2018
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Have. You. Read. The. Paper?Amblyrhynchus
August 22, 2018
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Wow, so you cannot support your claim and can only attack me with your ignorance. The cameras are to see what really happens- you know science 101- or maybe you don't know. You don't seem to understand anything about science. I have read enough on peppered moth experiments to know that not one has reflected reality. This one isn't any different. And you still cannot make a case for anything.ET
August 22, 2018
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So, not only did you not read the paper, you still haven't read the paper. And you continue to go on about cameras as if this was relevant to the hypothesis being tested?Amblyrhynchus
August 22, 2018
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The OP says otherwise and no one has challenged that part of the OP. As I said cameras would be better to catch what really happensET
August 22, 2018
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