I always love a good survey, and the latest Yougov survey of the religious beliefs of Americans does not disappoint. The survey of 996 adults, conducted on 17-18 October 2013, contains quite a few interesting revelations about atheism and religious belief in America. Among the highlights:
* Only 76% of Americans now claim to believe in God. (The question the survey participants were asked was, “Do you personally believe in the existence of God?”) 14% of Americans say they don’t believe in God, and an additional 10% are not sure.
Who are the atheists, in the United States?
Young people
* In the United States, people aged 18-29 are more than four times as likely to say they don’t believe in God as people aged 65 and over. Among people aged 18-29, a whopping 25% say they don’t believe in God, while an additional 12% are not sure. By comparison, 14% of people aged 30-44, 9% of people aged 45-64, and 6% of people aged 65 and over, say they do not believe in God. The percentage of people who are not sure if there is a God is fairly constant across all age groups (12% for people aged 18-29, 10% for people aged 30-44, 9% of people aged 45-64, and 11% of people aged 65 and over.) Only 63% of people aged 18-29 say they believe in God.
* If we examine the age trend, we can see the percentage of people who don’t believe in God growing by about 50% from one age bracket to the next: from 6% (65 and over) to 9% (45-64) to 14% (30-44). However, the trend toward atheism accelerates when we get to the youngest age bracket (18-29), also known as Millennials or Generation Y. Here, we find that the percentage of people who don’t believe in God leaps to 25% – a rise of roughly 80% from the figure of 14% among people aged 30-44.
The coming atheist tsunami: be prepared!
If there is a similar 80% jump from Generation Y to Generation Z (also known as the Post-Millennials or the Pluralist Generation), then disbelief in God could reach 45% among the generation of people who are currently aged 3-17. Add to that 45% another 10% who aren’t sure if there is a God, and that means that the number of people who do believe in God could fall to 45% (a minority, for the first time in history), among Generation Z, when they become adults.
If, more conservatively, we assume that there is “only” a 50% jump in the number of people who don’t believe in God from Generation Y to Generation Z, then that means the percentage of people who say they don’t believe in God among Generation Z will reach 37%. If we add on 10% who aren’t sure if there is a God or not, that makes believers in God a bare majority at 53%, for future Generation Z adults.
Of course, it is possible that the trend towards irreligiosity will come to an end with Generation Y. One hopeful sign is that the percentage of children living with two parents has finally bottomed out at 69% (see here). On the other hand, fewer of these parents are likely to be legally married, and of those who are, there’s an ever-increasing likelihood that one or both of them are not the child’s biological parents. So I’m not holding my breath.
Atheism and ethnicity
* White people in the United States are two and a half times more likely as black people to say they don’t believe in the existence of God (15% vs. 6%). The percentage among Hispanics is 10%.
According to the Pew Forum U.S. Religious Landscape Survey, conducted in 2007 and released in 2008, African-Americans are, by many measures, considerably more religious than the overall U.S. population. Among that survey’s findings:
- Nearly eight in 10 African-Americans (79 percent) say religion is very important in their lives, compared with 56 percent among all U.S. adults.
- African-Americans attend religious services and pray more frequently than the general population. While 39 percent of all Americans report attending religious services at least once a week, 53 percent of blacks report the same.
- Similarly, while 58 percent of all Americans report praying at least once a day, 76 percent of African-Americans report praying daily.
- The vast majority of African-Americans are Protestant (78 percent), compared with 51 percent of the U.S. adult population as a whole.
- African-Americans are more likely to interpret Scripture as the literal word of God (55% vs. 33%) and express a belief in angels and demons (83% vs. 68%).
- African-Americans are more likely to say they are absolutely convinced that there is life after death (58% vs. 50%) and to believe in miracles (84% vs. 79%).
These differences between black and white Americans cannot be adequately accounted for in terms of differences in income or education level, as the effect of these factors on religiosity is not very strong (see here and here). The differences must therefore presumably be due to cultural factors.
Atheists are mostly men
* According to the 2013 Yougov survey, American men are twice as likely as American women to say that they don’t believe in the existence of God (18% vs. 9%).
Women are generally acknowledged to be the more religious sex: according to a 2007 survey of 35,000 adults conducted by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, which was released in 2008 by the Pew Research Center, more women than men:
- are affiliated with a religion: (86% vs. 79%);
- pray at least daily: (66% vs. 49%); and
- have absolutely certain belief in a personal God: (58% vs. 45%).
One popular scientific explanation for this disparity is that women are more risk-averse than men, and religion is a way of avoiding risk.
George H. Gallup, Jr. puts forward several alternative explanations: women are more involved in child-rearing (which often includes taking the children to church); women are more likely to have time for church activities; women are more likely to have a best friend who is a regular churchgoer; and finally, women are more likely to believe on the basis of personal experience, rather than reason.
However, another explanation is provided by Rodney Stark, who turns the question, “Why are women more religious?” around, and asks, “Why are men less religious?” Stark’s answer is that “far more males than females have an underdeveloped ability to inhibit their impulses, especially those involving immediate gratification and thrills.” Some men, argues Stark, are shortsighted and don’t think ahead, and so “going to prison or going to hell just doesn’t matter to these men.”
Links between atheism and region of residence, education level and political affiliation
* According to the 2013 Yougov survey, Americans living in the Northeast are 80% more likely than Americans in the South to say that they don’t believe in the existence of God (18% vs. 10%).
* Postgraduates are about 60% more likely as people who haven’t completed high school to say they don’t believe in the existence of God (18% vs. 11%).
* Democrats are about 60% more likely than Republicans to say that they don’t believe in God (16% vs. 10%).
Members of religious groups who are atheists
* Among Americans who identify as Muslims (1.6% of the population, or about 5.1 million Americans), the percentage who say that they don’t believe in the existence of God is exactly zero. Rather obvious, one would have thought. However, among the 35% of Americans in the survey who identify as Protestants, 1% say they don’t believe in the existence of God, and for the 19.3% of Americans who identify as Catholics, that figure rises to 4%. (For the 3.9% of Americans who describe themselves as “other Christians”, the figure is 7%.) One suspects that some people identify as Christians for cultural rather than religious reasons.
* Among Americans who say they belong to the Jewish faith (2.7% of the population, or about 8.6 million Americans), only 57% say they believe in the existence of God. A whopping 22% of people who claim to belong to the Jewish faith say they don’t believe in God. (Are there lots of “cultural Jews”, I wonder?)
* Amazingly, 8% of people in the Yougov survey who claimed to be atheists or agnostics say they believe in the existence of God. (Go figure. Maybe some people don’t know what these terms mean?)
* Among born-again Americans (327 out of the sample of 996, or about one-third), 97% say they believe in God. Among Americans who are not born-again, only 67% say they believe in God, and 19% say they don’t.
How certain are believers of God’s existence?
* Among Americans who say that they do believe in God, 78% are absolutely certain that He exists. However, for believers aged 65 and over, 84% are absolutely certain, while for people aged 18-29, only 70% are absolutely certain. The percentage of male and female believers who are absolutely certain of the existence of God is identical: 78%. The percentage of postgraduate believers who are absolutely certain of the existence of God is 80%, while for people who haven’t completed high school, the percentage is actually slightly lower, at 78% (probably that’s not a statistically significant difference). However, 84% of believers in the South are absolutely certain of the existence of God, while only 66% of believers in the Northeast are.
* In the United States, only 22% of Jewish believers in God say they are absolutely certain of the existence of God. (It appears that Jews are more tolerant of religious doubt than other religious believers: see here.) For Catholic believers in God, that figure is 74%, while for Protestants, it’s 87%. For Muslims, however, it’s 96%. Among Americans who believe in God and claim to be born-again, 90% are absolutely certain of the existence of God, while for believers in God who are not born-again, only 70% are absolutely certain.
Believers who say they do things because God told them to
* Among Americans who believe in God, 10% say that they do things because God tells them to, all the time, and another 16% say they do things because God tells them to, most of the time. Surprisingly, these figures are higher for young believers aged 18-29 (14% say they do things because God tells them to, all the time and 23% say they do so, most of the time) than for elderly believers aged 65 and over (for whom the figures are 7% and 19% respectively). The figures are virtually the same for men and women, and are only slightly higher for Republican believers than for Democrats.
* Surprisingly, 13% of postgraduate believers say they do things because God tells them to, all the time, while for believers who haven’t completed high school, the figure is only 9%. However, postgraduate believers are also more likely to say that they never do things because God tells them to (34%) than people with less than high school education (28%). By region, 12% of believers in the West say they do things because God tells them to, all the time, while only 8% of believers in the Northeast do.
* In the United States, among believers who are black people, 15% say they do things because God tells them to, all the time, and an additional 29% say they do so, most of the time. For believers who are white people, the corresponding figures are 9% and 14%. Among believers who are Catholics, the figures are 4% and 8%, compared with 12% and 21% for Protestants, 30% and 7% for Muslims, and 0% and 11% respectively for Jews. These disparities between religious groups are presumably due to the fact that different religious traditions have varying beliefs regarding the role of Divine guidance in everyday life: some religious groups exhort believers to ask God for answers to life’s problems, while others encourage believers to use their God-given common sense. Even within the same religion (e.g. Christianity), different denominations place varying emphases on the need for Divine guidance.
Does God control the weather and natural disasters?
* In the United States, among people who believe in God, 31% say God controls events like the weather and disasters all the time, and 5% say He does so most of the time. Only 17% of believers say God never controls events like the weather and disasters, and an additional 8% say He very rarely does so.
* In the United States, the percentage of believers who say that God controls events like the weather and disasters all or most of the time doesn’t vary much by sex (37% for men vs. 35% for women), political party (39% for Democrats vs. 35% for Republicans, and 33% for independents), ethnicity (23% for black people, 16% for Hispanics and 15% for white people), or region (28% in the Northeast, 35% the West, 37% in the Midwest, and 39% in the South). However, it varies significantly by age (50% for people aged 18-29, 38% for people aged 30-44, 29% for people aged 45-64, and 35% for people aged 65 and over), and it also varies a lot by education level: 18% for postgraduates vs. 48% for people with less than a high school education.
* Among Christians, the percentage of believers who say that God controls events like the weather and disasters all or most of the time varies from 27% for Catholics to 41% for Protestants; for Muslims, the figure is 75%; while for Jews, the figure is only 7%. The high figure for Muslims is probably due to the Islamic belief in predestination (see also here). A significant number of Christians also believe in predestination. However, very few Jews subscribe to this doctrine.
Does God control human actions?
* In the United States, among people who believe in God, 10% say God directly controls human actions all the time and 16% say He does so most of the time. 33% say God never controls human actions.
* In the United States, the percentage of believers in God who say that God controls human actions all or most of the time doesn’t vary much by sex (18% for men vs. 14% for women), age (20% for people aged 18-29, 16% for people aged 30-44, 11% for people aged 45-64, and 20% for people aged 65 and over), political party (21% for Democrats vs. 18% for Republicans, but only 10% for independents), ethnicity (23% for black people, 16% for Hispanics and 15% for white people), or region (17% in the Northeast and the West, 16% in the South, and 13% in the Midwest). However, it varies a lot by education level: 6% for postgraduates vs. 22% for people with only a high school education, although for people with less than a high school education, the figure is only 16%).
* Among Christians, the percentage of believers who say that God controls human actions all or most of the time varies from 14% for Catholics to 17% for Protestants; for Muslims, the figure is 23%, while for Jews, the figure is 7%.
Some readers may be wondering why the figure for Muslims is only 23%, given their belief in predestination. However, considerable diversity of opinion exists among Muslims as to whether God’s foreknowledge is the cause of predestination, or vice versa (see here).
What do readers think about these trends?
Other Articles of interest
God told me to, say 38% of Americans by Peter Moore. Yougov news report, 25 October 2013.
US Religious Landscape Survey (February 2008) by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life.
Atheism: Contemporary Rates and Patterns by Phil Zuckerman. From The Cambridge Companion to Atheism, edited by Michael Martin, University of Cambridge Press, 2007