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Bad math: Why Larry Moran’s “I’m not a Darwinian” isn’t a valid reply to Meyer’s argument

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Professor Larry Moran has written a response to my post, A succinct case for Intelligent Design. Unfortunately, Professor Moran gets his facts wrong from the get-go. He writes:

It seems to me that the [Intelligent Design creationist] movement concentrates on criticizing evolution (and materialism) and doesn’t really present much of a case for believing that the history of life was directed by gods.

Now, it’s no skin off my nose if Professor Moran wants to call us creationists. Frankly, I couldn’t care less. But the Intelligent Design movement has never claimed to have scientific evidence that the history of life was “directed by gods.” What we claim is that certain highly specific, functional systems which are found in living things were designed by some intelligent agent or agents. By “intelligent,” I don’t mean “humanlike”; rather, what I mean is: capable of engaging in abstract reasoning, when selecting suitable means to achieve one’s goals. In the most clear-cut Intelligent Design cases, the agent has to engage in mathematical reasoning – whether it be about squares (in the case of the monolith on the Moon in the movie 2001, whose sides are in the ration 1:4:9) or about digital code (in the case of the DNA we find in living things), or about which complex geometrical arrangements of amino acid chains will prove to be capable of performing a biologically useful task (in the case of protein design).

When I speak of the agent’s “goals,” I don’t mean the agent’s personal motives for doing something, which we have no way of inferring from the products they design; rather, I simply mean the task that the agent was attempting to perform, or the problem that they were trying to solve. Beyond that, there is nothing more that we could possibly infer about the agent, unless we were acquainted with them or with other members of their species. For instance, we cannot infer that the designer of an artifact was a sentient being (since the ability to design doesn’t imply the ability to feel) , or a material being (whatever that vague term means), or a physical entity (since there’s no reason why a designer needs to exhibit law-governed behavior), or even a complex or composite entity. To be sure, all the agents that we are familiar with possess these characteristics, but we cannot infer them from the products designed by an agent. Finally, the fact that an agent is capable of performing a variety of functions does not necessarily imply that the agent is composed of multiple detachable parts. We simply don’t know that. In short: the scientific inferences we can make about non-human designers are extremely modest.

Moran’s verdict: “No case for Intelligent Design”

After quoting the 123-word passage from Meyer’s book which I highlighted in my original post, summarizing the four fundamental problems with unguided evolution, Professor Moran accuses Dr. Meyer of claiming that Intelligent Design must be true because Darwinism is false:

This passage merely affirms what we all know to be true; namely that there is no case for Intelligent Design Creationism. It’s just a bunch of whining about the inadequacies of the IDiot version of evolution. That version assumes that all of evolution is due to natural selection acting on random mutations and this gives rise to the appearance of design.

I don’t believe in that version of evolution and I don’t think that most species look as though they were designed. Does that mean that I’m an Intelligent Design Creationist? Of course not. Meyers (and Torley) have fallen for the trap of the false dichotomy.

Even if all four of Stephen Meyer’s critiques were correct, he still isn’t offering an alternative explanation and he still isn’t showing us evidence for an intelligent designer—or any other kind of designer.

As anyone who has read Darwin’s Doubt knows, this is a complete travesty of Meyer’s argument. Professor Moran is displaying his ignorance here.

The evidence for an intelligent designer, in a nutshell

Dr. Meyer’s case for an intelligent designer is spelt out with admirable lucidity in an Evolution News and Views post titled, Does Darwin’s Doubt Commit the God-of-the-Gaps Fallacy? (October 16, 2013). The argument proceeds as follows:

Premise One: Despite a thorough search and evaluation, no materialistic causes or evolutionary mechanisms have demonstrated the power to produce large amounts of specified or functional information (or integrated circuitry).

Premise Two: Intelligent causes have demonstrated the power to produce large amounts of specified/functional information (and integrated circuitry).

Conclusion: Intelligent design constitutes the best, most causally adequate, explanation for the specified/functional information (and circuitry) that was necessary to produce the Cambrian animals…

In fact, the argument for intelligent design developed in Darwin’s Doubt constitutes an “inference to the best explanation” based upon our best available knowledge….[A]n inference to the best explanation …asserts the superior explanatory power of a proposed cause based upon its established — its known — causal adequacy, and based upon a lack of demonstrated efficacy, despite a thorough search, of any other adequate cause. The inference to design, therefore, depends on present knowledgee of the causal powers of various materialistic entities and processes (inadequate) and intelligent agents (adequate).

Meyer’s argument can also be found in chapters 17 and 18 of his book, Darwin’s Doubt. Sadly, Professor Moran evinces no sign of having read those chapters. One wonders whether he merely skimmed Dr. Meyer’s book.

Why the neutral theory of evolution won’t remedy the deficiencies of neo-Darwinism

But let us return to Professor Moran’s remarks about natural selection. In his introduction to The Origin of Species, Charles Darwin wrote: “I am convinced that Natural Selection has been the main but not the exclusive means of modification.” In a similar vein, Richard Dawkins famously declared: “Evolution by natural selection is the only workable theory ever proposed that is capable of explaining life, and it does so brilliantly.”

Professor Moran does not share these views. He rejects the view that “evolution is due to natural selection acting on random mutations and this gives rise to the appearance of design,” forthrightly asserting: “I don’t believe in that version of evolution.” He maintains that “a huge number of mutations are neutral and there are far more neutral mutations fixed by random genetic drift that there are beneficial mutations fixed by natural selection.” This, he declares, is what modern-day evolutionists believe. In an earlier post, he complains that “you have to read very carefully to find any mention of modern evolutionary theory in Meyer’s book – he prefers to focus his attack on mutation + natural selection.”

What Professor Moran does not tell us here is that Dr. Stephen Meyer wrote a detailed and extensive critique of the neutral theory of evolution in his book, Darwin’s Doubt. In his critique, Dr. Meyer focuses on the ground-breaking work of Dr. Michael Lynch, a geneticist who espouses the neutral theory of evolution. Meyer argues that this theory is incapable of accounting for the origin of new animal body plans, because it is built on faulty mathematical assumptions (bolding mine – VJT):

Michael Lynch, a geneticist at Indiana University, … proposes a neutral or “non-adaptive” theory of evolution in which natural selection plays a largely insignificant role…

Lynch argues that in small populations, animal genomes will inevitably grow over time as nonprotein-coding sections of DNA (as well as gene duplicates) accumulate due to the weakness of natural selection. He thinks that these neutral mutations drive the evolution of animals.

… [F]or Lynch’s theory to explain the origin of new and functional genes and proteins (and the anatomical complexities that depend on them), his theory would have to solve the problem of combinatorial inflation… He would have to show that random mutations could efficiently search the relevant combinatorial space of possible sequences corresponding to a given novel functional gene or protein.

Nevertheless, Lynch does not even address the problem of combinatorial inflation or the closely related problem of the rarity of genes and proteins in sequence space…

Lynch does argue in one paper that neutral evolutionary processes can generate new complex adaptations – adaptations requiring multiple coordinated mutations – within realistic waiting times. In particular, writing in a recent paper with colleague Adam Abegg of St. Louis University, he argues that “conventional population genetic mechanisms” such as random mutation and genetic drift can cause the “relatively rapid emergence of specific complex adaptations.” …

But some things are just too good to be true, and it turns out that Lynch and Abegg made a subtle but fundamental mathematical error in coming to their conclusion. Appropriately, perhaps, the first person to demonstrate that Lynch’s incredible claim was problematic was Douglas Axe… In the end, he traced Lynch and Abegg’s claims to two erroneous equations, both of which were based on erroneous assumptions. In essence, Lynch and Abegg assumed that organisms will acquire a given complex adaptation by traversing a direct path to the new anatomical structure. Each mutation would build on the previous one in the most efficient manner possible – with no setbacks, false starts, aimless wandering, or genetic degradation – until the desired structure or system (or gene) is constructed. Thus, they formulated an undirected model of evolutionary change, and one that assumes, moreover, that there is no mechanism available (such as natural selection) that can lock in potentially favorable mutational changes on the way to some complex advantageous structure….

Yet nothing in Lynch’s neutral model ensures that potentially advantageous mutations will remain in place while other mutations accrue. As Axe explains, “Productive changes cannot be ‘banked,’ whereas Equation 2 [one of Lynch’s equations] presupposes that they can.” Instead, Axe shows, mathematically, that degradation (the fixation of mutational changes that make the complex adaptation less likely to arise) will occur much more rapidly than constructive mutations, causing the expected waiting time to increase exponentially.
(2013, pp. 321, 322, 326, 327-328)

Quoting Marshall – but missing the big picture

In another post, Professor Moran quotes with relish from a critical review of Dr. Meyer’s book by the eminent UC paleontologist, Professor Charles Marshall:

…when it comes to explaining the Cambrian explosion, Darwin’s Doubt is compromised by Meyer’s lack of scientific knowledge, his “god of the gaps” approach, and selective scholarship that appears driven by his deep belief in an explicit role of an intelligent designer in the history of life.

However, Dr. Meyer has responded at length to Professor Marshall’s criticisms, in a four-part series. Meyer’s most telling points can be found in his second post, which is titled, To Build New Animals, No New Genetic Information Needed? More in Reply in Charles Marshall. I’ll quote a few brief excerpts (bolding mine – VJT):

…Marshall simply assumes that most of the genetic information necessary to build the Cambrian animals already existed before the Cambrian explosion. In fact, he seems to presuppose the existence of what Susumu Ohno called a “pananimalian genome,”16 a nearly complete set of the genes necessary to build Cambrian animals within some phenotypically simpler, ur-metazoan ancestor. Thus, he states the new animal phyla “emerged through the rewiring of the gene regulatory networks (GRNs) of already existing genes.”17 …

Nevertheless, this question-begging assumption does not solve the central problem posed by Darwin’s Doubt — that of the origin of the genetic (and epigenetic) information necessary to produce the Cambrian animals. It merely pushes the problem back several tens or hundreds of millions of years, assuming that such a universal genetic toolkit ever existed.

Readers of the book will recall my discussion, in Chapters 9 and 10, of recent mutagenesis experiments. These experiments have established the extreme rarity of functional genes and proteins among the many (combinatorially) possible ways of arranging nucleotide bases or amino acids within their corresponding “sequence spaces.” … This extreme rarity also helps to explain why mathematical biologists, using standard population genetics models, are calculating exceedingly long waiting times (well in excess of available evolutionary time) for the production of new genes and proteins when producing such genes or proteins requires even a few coordinated mutations.20

For these reasons, defining the Cambrian explosion as a 25 million year event, as Marshall does, instead of a 10 million year event, as many other Cambrian experts do (and as I do in Darwin’s Doubt), makes no appreciable difference in solving the problem of the origin of genetic information — such is the extreme rarity of functional bio-macromolecules within their relevant sequence spaces. Nor, for that matter, does positing the origin of a complete set of genes (that is, many more than just one) for building all the Cambrian animals 100 million years before the Cambrian explosion. That merely pushes the problem back…In any case, the experimentally based calculations in Darwin’s Doubt show that neither ten million, nor several hundred million years would afford enough opportunities to produce the genetic information necessary to build even a single novel gene or protein, let alone all the new genes and proteins needed to produce new animal forms.

Nobody would question Professor Marshall’s expertise in paleontology, but the argument in Dr. Stephen Meyer’s book, Darwin’s Doubt, is ultimately a mathematical one. Until evolutionists demonstrate that they can grapple with the mathematics in Meyer’s argument, their criticisms of his book will continue to miss the mark.

Reading the critical reviews of Meyer’s book reinforced my conviction that many contemporary biologists fail to grasp that the scientific case for unguided evolution is built on a foundation of faulty math. As a philosopher of science, Dr. Meyer is to be congratulated for having the courage to publicly declare that the emperor has no clothes.

Finally, here’s what Harvard geneticist George Church (who isby no means an Intelligent Design theorist) said about Darwin’s Doubt:

Stephen Meyer’s new book Darwin’s Doubt represents an opportunity for bridge-building, rather than dismissive polarization — bridges across cultural divides in great need of professional, respectful dialog — and bridges to span evolutionary gaps.

Readers can find many more comments on this Web page by highly qualified scientists praising Darwin’s Doubt. Professor Moran is welcome to call them all “idiots” if he likes. But somehow I don’t think he’ll do that. Or will he?

Comments
Dr. JDD, ///I would just like to note here that Evolve claims that peptidyl tranferase of the ribosome is in fact an enzyme. This was acriticism another material evolutionist claimed Stephen Meyer got wrong in his book “Signature in the Cell”. He used this point (spectacularly poor) to say Stephen Meyer makes basic mistakes, arguing that for something to be an enzyme it needs to be a protein./// Enzymes don't have to be protein. RNA catalysts can also be called enzymes. The term "Ribozyme", used to describe RNA enzymes, is a mix of Ribonucleic Acid and Enzyme.Evolve
June 8, 2015
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One can immediately ask why such super-advanced aliens (with technology beyond our comprehension) merely designed the most basic, primitive microbes instead of advanced creatures and left. The same can be asked of God who is supposed to have limitless power. As one would expect from a natural and unguided origin, life took a vast amount of time (1 billion years after earth’s formation) to originate and billions of years more to achieve complexity. The evidence clearly points to an in situ origin and evolution of life that was natural and spontaneous.Evolve
June 8, 2015
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Carpathian @663
The only problem with that statement is that the lab must have been run by non-living entities. You cannot have alien life-forms being the designers of life. These non-living aliens would thus have to have been designed by something that was also not alive.
This objection is simply false. ID only attempts to explain the life we can observe, and not theoretical life. If, say, it turns out that aliens are revealed to have designed life on this planet, yet through their super-advanced discoveries and technology, that we cannot yet comprehend, they can show that they arose from some materialist abiogenesis, ID would be OK with that.TSErik
June 3, 2015
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Yes. Are you a dualist?Mung
June 3, 2015
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Mung:
Carpathian, I am still waiting to hear how this immaterial stuff you’re talking about has any effect on the material world.
You mean like an immaterial mind?Carpathian
June 3, 2015
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Carpathian, I am still waiting to hear how this immaterial stuff you're talking about has any effect on the material world.Mung
June 3, 2015
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Mung:
The magic of modern communication. How did we ever live without it.
You make a strong case for the brain being the source of our consciousness, and that what we call the immaterial mind, is really the result of the electrical/chemical functioning of the brain.Carpathian
June 3, 2015
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kairosfocus:
Carpathian, it would. For instance, it is reasonable to note the possibility that the technology of cell based life could be within reach of a nanotech lab some generations beyond Venter et al.
The only problem with that statement is that the lab must have been run by non-living entities. You cannot have alien life-forms being the designers of life. These non-living aliens would thus have to have been designed by something that was also not alive.Carpathian
June 3, 2015
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A Data Link Service Data Unit (or simply DLSDU) is a [non physical] sequence of [non physical] bits, or [non physical] bytes, transferred [immaterially] from one DLSAP to another with it's two [non physical] boundaries preserved. There may be a [non physical] constraint on the maximum [non physical] size of the DLSDU. Thus, one of the major concerns of the Data Link is to suitably [immaterially] delimit, and perhaps [non physically] segment, DLSDUs so that these can be transferred [non physically] from one [non physical but intelligent] DL entity to another [non physical but intelligent DL entity]. - Open Systems Interconnection: Its Architecture and Protocol
The magic of modern communication. How did we ever live without it.Mung
June 2, 2015
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Carpathian, it would. For instance, it is reasonable to note the possibility that the technology of cell based life could be within reach of a nanotech lab some generations beyond Venter et al. This is relevant to one possibility, directed panspermia. It would also be relevant to panspermia. Directed panspermia could also be adjusted to design of life by a source beyond the cosmos. The inference that life on earth is the first of any type is tantamount to a conclusion of spontaneous abiogenesis, which will require considerable evidence to render such plausible. We need to ask, what is life (as opposed to what is cell based life) and what are reasonable candidates for origin of cell based life on earth, why. KFkairosfocus
June 2, 2015
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kairosfocus:
Carpathian, we deal with life on earth. KF
What are you trying to say here? If life on Earth is the first or not has nothing to do with how it came to be.Carpathian
June 2, 2015
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Carpathian, we deal with life on earth. KFkairosfocus
June 2, 2015
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kairosfocus:
Carpathian, you presume life on earth is the first life. That is a big assumption. KF
I don't presume that at all. For the purposes of argument I will accept that life was designed. If that is the case, then life cannot have been designed by life. That rules out live aliens.Carpathian
June 2, 2015
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Carpathian, you presume life on earth is the first life. That is a big assumption. KFkairosfocus
June 2, 2015
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kairosfocus:
Carpathian, both Dr Selensky and I are trained in physics, and both of us have engaged in creating designs as beings constrained by physics.
If fine-tuning exists as a part of the intelligent design of life, then by definition, it is impossible for anyone not possessing that power to design a biological organism. This leaves only God as a possible designer since he is not constrained by physics due to the power he has with fine-tuning.Carpathian
June 2, 2015
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kairosfocus:
Carpathian, Weasel was purposeful and targetted search from outset, so it cannot be a proper model of a process that is supposedly blind. And this, Dawkins himself acknowledged even as he then calmly proceeded to use a case more akin to artificial selection — a design method btw — as if it were a good indicator of a blind process. KF
Then let's not refer to Weasel. Can a designed program exhibit random behaviour? Are the data and program separate objects?Carpathian
June 2, 2015
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Mung:
Mung: Carpathian, As you say, the issue had nothing to do with recompilation.
Of course it did. Why else would you ask a question like this?
Mung: In how many places would your modular program need to be changed?
Carpathian
June 2, 2015
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Mung:
Carpathian: Should I have sent Mung more trivial code to argue about? Mung: Yes. Because that way anyone and everyone could see whether it could do what you claimed it could do
But you could have seen it do what I claimed it would do simply by running the executable.Carpathian
June 2, 2015
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Carpathian, As you say, the issue had nothing to do with recompilation.Mung
June 2, 2015
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Carpathian, both Dr Selensky and I are trained in physics, and both of us have engaged in creating designs as beings constrained by physics. Engineering uses the forces and materials of nature, economically, to create entities for the good of humanity. If you mean that there is a question on whether the human mind is reducible to a computational device, yes that is a serious issue; but that is an even broader one, and it is obvious that there are embodied designers. KFkairosfocus
June 2, 2015
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Mung, Since Mung seems to have forgotten:
Mung: What if they entered: “methinks it is a cloud with the appearance of a Mustela nivalis”?
Carpathian: It would find that string or any you enter. You could type in this one for example: “ACTGGCTGCATTCATCCCAATGAGGATC”
Mung: In how many places would your modular program need to be changed?
Carpathian: None.
Carpathian
June 2, 2015
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Mung:
Tweaking it so it would work you mean?
No, so it would be more useful to demonstrate selction.
GEN 36: 9 ATCGATCGATCGATCG #Matches: 16 ATCGATCGATCGATCG -------------------------- carp /lLog.log /c6 /d /g16 /p64 /m5 /s Population Size = 64 Fitness String Len = 16 Pop Len/Fit Len = 4.000000 No Change = 17 PosChange = 18 NegChange = 2 Multiple Change = 1 % MultiBit changes = 2.78 Number of generations = 36 Num Runs 1 Avg # generations = 36 Total MultiBit Changes = 1
I have added "tribal borders" which means that the population is divided into groups for a certain amount of generations before being allowed to marry outside of their group. The amount of children also has an impact on how fast changes spread. There is something I don't understand about IDists with a programming background. Why do you all insist that a designed program cannot provide random behaviour? Las Vegas and Atlantic City rely on random behaviour from their slot machines to make their money and there is no backlash from anyone that this not possible.Carpathian
June 2, 2015
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Since Carpathian seems to have forgotten: Carpathian: The program has no information about the target when it is created. Mung: So? Carpathian: The program does not need to be recompiled when changing target strings. Mung: Hardly a point that bothers me. I program primarily in a dynamic language. Recompilation isn’t the issue. Carpathian: Your claim was that the program would have to recompiled when the string changed. Mung: Wrong again. HEREMung
June 2, 2015
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Carpathian:
The five days were not spent simply writing as I spent more time running trials to get data.
Tweaking it so it would work you mean?Mung
June 2, 2015
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Carpathian:
Should I have sent Mung more trivial code to argue about?
Yes. Because that way anyone and everyone could see whether it could do what you claimed it could do. You should have started with a simple weasel program and then evolved it into your final version, sharing the source along the way, so we could all see what changes had to be made in order to implement the final functionality.Mung
June 2, 2015
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Carpathian, Weasel was purposeful and targetted search from outset, so it cannot be a proper model of a process that is supposedly blind. And this, Dawkins himself acknowledged even as he then calmly proceeded to use a case more akin to artificial selection -- a design method btw -- as if it were a good indicator of a blind process. KFkairosfocus
June 2, 2015
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Carpathian:
Could you give Mung a primer on why the layers above the physical layers are not physical.
The physical layer isn't even physical. The OSI model, the entire model, every layer, is an abstraction. You think that because one layer is called the physical layer that: 1.) That layer must be physical 2.) No other layer can be physical And that's just wrong-headed thinking sir.Mung
June 2, 2015
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computerist:
You have yet to explain the initial function and components of the program and if the selection criteria is apt.
Whether or not the selection criteria is apt is up to the user of the program. In this case, the Weasel program itself simply needs to function in a random-like manner for our experiments. It is the selection criteria that is important and which will result in meaningful data that we can study. Again, Weasel demonstrates the power of selection on a population, but it does not demonstrate every single component or facet of what we call evolution. It would be unfair to label a tire pressure gauge as a failure simply because it won't diagnose the entire car.Carpathian
June 2, 2015
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EugeneS:
It sounds like a strawman to me. Control is a pointer to design. Scientific evidence needs to be treated as such. Scientifically, we have a strong indication of design. Period.
If I accepted what you say about design and then decided to do any biological design, I would need more "information" about the impact of my design than the actual design required. Chess is difficult enough where a player has to try and look into the future a few moves and plan his responses to possible moves by his opponent. For biological design, you would need to know the impact of a new species on thousands of others. The impact is not simply individual as it applies to populations also. If the designer has no control of the environment, (fine-tuning of nature), or a clear understanding what will happen across the ecosystem, ( an ability to know the future), not only might his design fail, but his previous designs may now be threatened. This is my biggest problem with design, that it is not a mechanism that can be used by any creatures or entities that are limited by physics.Carpathian
June 2, 2015
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computerist:
You assume that blind undirected processes provide the selection criteria in all cases and that the same rule for variation applies for the integrated complexity of biological systems.
I don't assume that at all. If a genetic influence on an organism leads to a weak swimmer, that organism won't do well if its main source of food is marine life. This is in no way a random selection pressure. Biological "selection" eliminates those organisms whose "genetic body plan" does not provide them with the attributes required for their environment. Again, this is not random.Carpathian
June 2, 2015
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