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Enormous Predictive Power of Darwin’s Theory?

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In a just published article in Plos Genetics, Merdith, et. al., study the enamilin gene (ENAM) in four different orders of placental mammals having both toothless and/or enamelless taxa. Their results show that, indeed, the enamelin gene is basically in place in the toothless taxa, but that either “frameshift mutations and/or stop codons” are found in the toothless and enamelless taxa. They then use a “novel method based on selection intensity estimates” to determine whether molecular evolutionary history of ENAM would ‘predict’ the occurence of enamel in “basal representative of Xenartha (sloths, anteaters, armadillos)”, which contains many frameshift mutations.

Their conclusion?

Our results link evolutionary change at the molecular level to morphological change in the fossil record and also provide evidence for the enormous predictive power of Charles Darwin’s theory of descent with modification.

Enormous predictive power? Really? It seems to me that if there is any “power” to Darwin’s theory, then it must come from its ability to demonstrate how new structures arise, not how previously occurring structures disappeared.

Furthermore, from the writings of Fred Hoyle, and the recent work of Behe (The Edge of Evolution), what we, here at UD would predict, is that the ‘loss’ of teeth or enamel wouldn’t involve more than two amino acid substitutions. This is, more or less, what Meredith, et. al. found. So, whose predictive power is enormous and whose not? Darwin wasn’t the first to suggest descent with modifcation. He was the first, however, to claim that nature alone, with variation combined with selective pressures and strong laws of inheritance, could account for the diversity we see and the seeming incredible complexity of such organs as the eye. This was his prediction, then, not that the loss of a function could be traced back in time–the fossil record tells us as much (Dollo’s Law was formulated in the 19th Century; see below). OTOH, using real numbers with equations that realistically represent life, UDers would predict that the operative gene-transcribed protein would be off by only two amino acids. To me this is the more impressive prediction.

Now, Meredith, et. al. do find there are the equivalent of three amino acids that are substituted for in some taxa. However, we’re dealing with such ancient lines, going back millions of years in the fossil record, that something called Gallo’s Law can, and should be invoked. Dollo’s Law says that features/structures in fossil species, once disappearing, never appear in the the fossil record again. They’re simply lost. Hoyle, in his book, “The Mathematics of Evolution”, based on realistic numbers applied to the equations he develops, concludes—predicts, if you will— that if a species moves away from its current genotype by more than two amino acids in any particular gene, then the loss of gene function will never again be recovered. That some orders of mammals are off by three amino acids simply tells us that this function was lost sometime in the very distant past, and that it has never reappeared again in the fossil record. This is what Hoyle would have predicted by simply looking at the molecular data. And, of course, the fossil record bears this out.

Comments
Gaz @ 22:
And it’s telling that we never DO find stone tools in 60 million year old strata.
Yes, it is 'telling'. It tells us that humans didn't exist 60 mya. What I find 'telling', is that seversky hasn't answered this simple question. Don't you find that 'telling'?PaV
September 6, 2009
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Seversky:
Does ID have anything to compare with Tiktaalik?
Ha ha ha. That cracked me up. But what exactly do you mean? Some compelling evidences for ID. 1. Life 2. DNA 3. Cambrian Explosion 4. Molecular Machinery 5. Human Intelligence I could go on but I will stop there.Jehu
September 6, 2009
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Where is the passage about non-telic processes? DeLurker:
Why would you expect to see any reference to telic processes when there is no evidence that would suggest such processes exist in modern evolutionary theory?
1- There isn't any evidence that living organisms arose from non-living matter via non-telic processes 2- Therefor there isn't any reason to infer non-telic processes are solely responsible for evolutionary processes 3- Plus the fact that science can only demonstrate life coming from life. There is a paper out about getting two mutations in a non-telic scenario. It appears there just isn’t enough time in the universe to allow for such a thing
Then clearly the paper is in error, since multiple mutations have been observed.
This pertains to two specific mutations. Please provide a full cite and we can discuss it. Waiting for Two Mutations: With Applications to Regulatory Sequence Evolution and the Limits of Darwinian Evolution It is a paper that attempted to refute Behe's "Edge of Evolution" but ended up confirming it. But anyway I am still waiting for those predictions based on the mechanisms.Joseph
September 6, 2009
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Joseph#29
Where is the passage about non-telic processes?
Why would you expect to see any reference to telic processes when there is no evidence that would suggest such processes exist in modern evolutionary theory?
There is a paper out about getting two mutations in a non-telic scenario. It appears there just isn’t enough time in the universe to allow for such a thing
Then clearly the paper is in error, since multiple mutations have been observed. Please provide a full cite and we can discuss it.DeLurker
September 6, 2009
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DELurker, Where is the passage about non-telic processes? All I read were vague references to "evolution". Yet "evolution" isn't being debated. The debate is all about the mechanisms. Were organisms designed to evolve (evolved by design) or did they evolve via an accumulation of gentic accidents? There is a paper out about getting two mutations in a non-telic scenario. It appears there just isn't enough time in the universe to allow for such a thing- that is evolution of the diversity of life via an accumulation of genetic accidents.Joseph
September 6, 2009
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Prediction: If living organisms were the result of intentional design then I would expect to see that living organisms are (and contain subsystems that are) irreducibly complex and/ or contain complex specified information. IOW I would expect to see an intricacy that is more than just a sum of chemical reactions (endothermic or exothermic).
Why? How do they follow from your hypothesis?
1- It fits the claim that living organisms are not reducible to matter, energy, chance and necessity 2- Intelligent agencies, when acting with nature, usually leave traces of their involvement behind. IC and CSI are those traces.
In either case why couldn’t the Designer, whatever it might be, have simply made use of the evolutionary processes that even ID proponents admit are observed in living things.
"Evolutionary processes" is too vague to be of any use. Further I would expect to see command & control- a hierarchy of command & control would be a possibility.
What do you mean by “command & control”
The bacterial flagellum, for example- it is useless unless the organism can control it- command it when to turn in one direction, stop and turn in the opposite direction. If you don't understand command and control perhaps you should go back to school. Try to deduce the minimal functionality that a living organism. Try to determine if that minimal functionality is irreducibly complex and/or contains complex specified information. Also check to see if any subsystems are irreducibly complex and/ or contain complex specified information.
Any functional system, whether designed or not, has a point where it will fail if it suffers enough damage. “Minimal functionality” proves nothing.
I never said it proves something. However it is all about reducibility. That is how we figure out how it came to be.
Irreducible complexity is the claim that a biological structure could not have come about through any natural, non-teleogogical process. To prove it you have to be able to exclude any natural process, either known or unknown.
I know what IC is. I also know that science is not about "proof". The design inference is an inference for a reason. As with all scientific inferences future knowledge can either confirm or refute it. Science carries on with our current understanding and does not. cannot wait for what the future may or may not bring.
As for biological information – whether specified, complex specified, functional complex specified or coupled complex specified – there is a real question about whether there is any such thing.
True so all you have to do is to start supporting your position.Joseph
September 6, 2009
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Joseph#24
Can anyone post a testable hypothesus for the theory of evolution based on the proposed non-telic mechanisms?
Predictions based on modern evolutionary theory are made and tested in the peer reviewed literature on a daily basis. A simple Google search will turn up dozens of examples, including many for a lay audience. I suggest this excerpt from Jerry A. Coyne's Why Evolution Is True (indeed, I recommend the whole book).DeLurker
September 6, 2009
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Do archaeologists require special pleading for the origin of Stonehenge?
Nope. Plenty of evidence of known designers and builders around at the time.
Yeah we found that evidence because we were allowed to look for it. Also it took quite a while before it was demonstrated that humans could have built it.Joseph
September 6, 2009
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camanintx:
A bigger failure for ID is their lack of explanation for similarities in pseudogenes between related species. 1- Common design 2- Convergence 3- Common descent All of those fit in the ID scenrio. It is one thing to claim common design for functional genes, but when we find the exact same mutation rendering pseudogenes inoperative, common descent is the only workable hypothesis.
Except that it isn't "workable". And it doesn't tell us anything about the mechanisms.Joseph
September 6, 2009
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Can anyone post a testable hypothesus for the theory of evolution based on the proposed non-telic mechanisms?Joseph
September 6, 2009
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Seversky:
Does ID have anything to compare with Tiktaalik?
Tiktaalik wasn't a prediction besed on any mechanisms. It was a vague "prediction" based on the vague notion of universal common descent. IOW it fits in with the designed to evolve scenario. BTW ID will be falsified if it is ever demonstrated that living organisms can arise from non-living matter via non-telic processes.
Which version of ID?
I only know of one and it would be falsified. But anyway Seversky all you have to do is to actually start supporting your position as oppoosed to arguing from ignorance against ID. It is that simple.Joseph
September 6, 2009
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ShawnBoy, #21
From Michael Denton’s 1998 book Nature’s Destiny (pages 289-290)…. “If it is true that a vast amount of the DNA in higher organisms is in fact junk, then this would indeed pose a very serious challenge to the idea of directed evolution or any teleological model of evolution.
Except Denton made this "prediction" several years after scientists started finding uses for "junk DNA". Read Science Magazine, 4 February 1994, Vol. 263. no. 5147, pp. 608 - 610, "Mining treasures from 'junk DNA'" by R Nowak. A bigger failure for ID is their lack of explanation for similarities in pseudogenes between related species. It is one thing to claim common design for functional genes, but when we find the exact same mutation rendering pseudogenes inoperative, common descent is the only workable hypothesis.camanintx
September 6, 2009
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ellazimm: Does anyone have a reference for the ID “junk” DNA prediction? This could be a telling point and I think it’s worth elucidating. If it was made then slam home the point!
From Michael Denton's 1998 book Nature's Destiny (pages 289-290).... “If it is true that a vast amount of the DNA in higher organisms is in fact junk, then this would indeed pose a very serious challenge to the idea of directed evolution or any teleological model of evolution. Junk DNA and directed evolution are in the end incompatible concepts. Only if the junk DNA contained information specifying for future evolutionary events, when it would not in a strict sense be junk in any case, could the finding could be reconciled with a teleological model of evolution. Indeed, if it were true that the genomes of higher organisms contained vast quantities of junk the whole argument of this book would collapse. Teleology would be entirely discredited. On any teleological model of evolution, most, perhaps all the DNA in the genomes of higher organisms should have some function.” I'd love to see any well-known Darwinist make a prediction even half as bold as Dr. Denton's.ShawnBoy
September 6, 2009
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PaV (20), "To get at the point you’re trying to make, let me ask you this, if in a rock formation dated to be 60 mya they found stone-age tools, would you, or would you not, conclude that humans existed 60 mya?" Yes. This is actually the equivalent of the "rabbit in the Precambrian". And it's telling that we never DO find stone tools in 60 million year old strata.Gaz
September 5, 2009
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Severesky @ 15:
Do you have any reason to think that there was anyone around at the time to do the specifying?
To get at the point you're trying to make, let me ask you this, if in a rock formation dated to be 60 mya they found stone-age tools, would you, or would you not, conclude that humans existed 60 mya?PaV
September 5, 2009
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I’ve come to a realization about ID that might actually cause me to view it more like real a scientific endeavor. It can be summed up in two very simple sentences. Unfortunately I suspect that it will be simply rejected out of hand by most IDists. ID is not a scientific theory. It is, however, an attempt to establish a scientific fact. Many arguments against ID are based on the term “theory” and how well ID does or rather does not fit into that definition. A theory should make predictions that can be verified (not just falsified). A theory should explain what we see and, as much as possible, why (why as in “by what means”, not why as in “for what purpose”). A theory should ideally suggest various avenues for continuing research. ID does none of these. And yet one could still consider it a scientifically valid pursuit if one dropped the “theory” farce and admitted that it’s simply trying to establish the fact of design in nature and nothing more. It’s less like Newton or Einstein (or dare I say Darwin?) describing the means and methods by which what we observe comes about, and more like Michelson and Morley attempting to establish the simple fact of the existence of ether. ID does not describe in any way the means and methods by which an intelligent agent does what it does. It attempts to establish only the fact that an intelligent agent has acted on biological systems in some detectable way. If such a thing could actually be established it would be an incredibly important data point that would need to be accounted for by any future theory of life and biology. That would be no small achievement by any measure. I'll refrain from commenting on whether I think such a thing could ever actually be established (and I fully expect a number of people here to simply claim that it's already established and that I'm just a mindless darwinist idiot drone for thinking otherwise).VentureFree
September 5, 2009
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Does anyone have a reference for the ID "junk" DNA prediction? This could be a telling point and I think it's worth elucidating. If it was made then slam home the point!ellazimm
September 5, 2009
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Joseph @ 11
Do archaeologists require special pleading for the origin of Stonehenge?
Nope. Plenty of evidence of known designers and builders around at the time.Seversky
September 5, 2009
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Joseph @ 10
Darwinism has predictions? Please post the predictions based on the proposed mechamisms.
Does ID have anything to compare with Tiktaalik? Thought not.
BTW ID will be falsified if it is ever demonstrated that living organisms can arise from non-living matter via non-telic processes.
Which version of ID? What about advanced aliens who came to Earth and seeded it with life way back? They might not have created it, just brought it here. We have no way of knowing. Demonstrating abiogenesis would not falsify that version of ID.
Prediction: If living organisms were the result of intentional design then I would expect to see that living organisms are (and contain subsystems that are) irreducibly complex and/ or contain complex specified information. IOW I would expect to see an intricacy that is more than just a sum of chemical reactions (endothermic or exothermic).
Why? How do they follow from your hypothesis? What is your hypothesis, by the way? Is it that all life was created from inanimate matter by some Intelligent Designer who differs from the Christian God in name only? Or is it the more limited hypothesis that some advanced intelligence has been meddling with life after it appeared? In either case why couldn't the Designer, whatever it might be, have simply made use of the evolutionary processes that even ID proponents admit are observed in living things. Why couldn't it have just wound up the spring, set it in motion and then let it do its own thing? Ideally, a predicted observation should happen if and only if the hypothesis is true. Your predictions are too vague and beg too many questions to be of use. For example:
Further I would expect to see command & control- a hierarchy of command & control would be a possibility.
What do you mean by "command & control"? A large brain? Nerve ganglia? Chemical reactions? We have large brains which have given us enormous power not just to react to but to shape our envirnoment. Is that "command & control"? There are a huge range of microscopic organisms which vastly outnumber us and also have a huge influence on the biosphere yet have no nervous systems at all. Do they have "command & control"? So what is it?
Test: Try to deduce the minimal functionality that a living organism. Try to determine if that minimal functionality is irreducibly complex and/or contains complex specified information. Also check to see if any subsystems are irreducibly complex and/ or contain complex specified information.
Any functional system, whether designed or not, has a point where it will fail if it suffers enough damage. "Minimal functionality" proves nothing. Irreducible complexity is the claim that a biological structure could not have come about through any natural, non-teleogogical process. To prove it you have to be able to exclude any natural process, either known or unknown. Good luck with that. As for biological information - whether specified, complex specified, functional complex specified or coupled complex specified - there is a real question about whether there is any such thing. It may just be another analogy too far.
Seversky
September 5, 2009
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Blue @ 6:
What does ID predict that could be tested in a lab? Anything whatsoever?
One prediction is that information is 'front-loaded'. What Meredith, et. al., found shows us that previously working information has been corrupted. It DOES NOT show any production of new information. Accordig to Dembski's Law of Conservation of Information, this is what we would expect to see. Now, as to "in the lab", let's remember that there are "in vivo" and "in vitro" experiments performed. "In vitro" experiments can be conducted either in nature itself, or in the lab. What Behe has done is to use field/lab studies to confirm an earlier mathematical model that he published. Both mathematical modeling and field/lab studies show that the "edge of evolution" is about two amino acids away from any stable, functioning protein. Fred Hoyle reached this same conclusion years before using his very own approach to population genetics, in which he arrived at many of the same equations that Fisher, Haldane and Kimura had before---all lending credence to his methodology. However, his methodology forces one to conclude that there is a constant "erosion process" at work in any genetic system, which NS counteracts---indicating the MAIN function of NS---and that if a protein sequence in DNA gets more than two amino acids away from its functional state, then it is almost impossible for its function to be re-established---thus, a confirmation of sorts of Dollo's Law---which is, as Darwinists like to say, a "fact". As to my post: there are two main points: (1) the hyperbole that comes so easily to Darwinists---they get so excited about what 'evolution can do', when, in fact, their results make even more sense from an ID perspective, and (2) that it would seem that Meredith, et. al.'s results are in conformity with predictions of both Hoyle and Behe, and really has nothing to say about Darwin's hypothesis. Most people here at UD already accept 'common descent'. To accept 'common descent' is simply to say, more or less, that species aren't 'created' de novo. But Darwin's problem is not to 'prove' that de novo creation doesn't take place, but "how" reptiles became birds. There is no credible Darwinian mechanism to explain such a transition, and Meredith's results in NO way is suggestive of such a method.PaV
September 5, 2009
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PaV @ 4
Seversky: Prediction involves specifying the nature of an event before it happens. Were the amino acid substitutions to have been specified 50 million years ago “before it happen[ed]“?
Do you have any reason to think that there was anyone around at the time to do the specifying?Seversky
September 5, 2009
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Actually, now that I think about it, what it means for your prediction is that even if it turns out the prediction is wrong, that still doesn't prove that my God didn't create life. Which is good, because you can't prove what isn't true!feebish
September 5, 2009
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Joseph at #10: "If living organisms were the result of intentional design then I would expect to see that living organisms are (and contain subsystems that are) irreducibly complex and/ or contain complex specified information." That is one possibility, sure, but it sounds to me like you are trying to put my God in a box. Are you saying that my God is not powerful enough to produce living systems that are not irreducibly complex and do not contain functionally complex specified information. Because I think He is powerful enough to do whatever He wants. What I'm trying to say, I guess, is that your prediction is one way a designer could work, but not necessarily the only way. I'm not sure what that does to your prediction.feebish
September 5, 2009
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Joseph: I have heard archaeologists suggest all kinds of batty ideas after a couple of pints in a pub. But before a hypothesis becomes well established it goes through round after round of review and criticism by other archaeologists. It's a bit more wild and woolly than some other areas of science but it tends to work the same way: if you say something stupid you get shot down by a lot of people. If you still think you're right then you've got to go find the evidence. Incontrovertible evidence. Hopefully from more than one source or location. Archaeologists all would LOVE to be the one to prove some new paradigm; they are always looking to buck the system. But, it's very hard and it takes a lot of work and usually a lot of digging. And, just like other scientists, they would all LOVE to prove everyone else wrong. That's why they "try out" some pretty wacky ideas . . . just in case one of them flies . .ellazimm
September 5, 2009
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Do archaeologists require special pleading for the origin of Stonehenge?Joseph
September 5, 2009
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Darwinism has predictions? Please post the predictions based on the proposed mechamisms. BTW ID will be falsified if it is ever demonstrated that living organisms can arise from non-living matter via non-telic processes. The following is half of my design hypothesis: Observation: Living organisms Question Are living organisms the result of intentional design? Prediction: If living organisms were the result of intentional design then I would expect to see that living organisms are (and contain subsystems that are) irreducibly complex and/ or contain complex specified information. IOW I would expect to see an intricacy that is more than just a sum of chemical reactions (endothermic or exothermic). Further I would expect to see command & control- a hierarchy of command & control would be a possibility. Test: Try to deduce the minimal functionality that a living organism. Try to determine if that minimal functionality is irreducibly complex and/or contains complex specified information. Also check to see if any subsystems are irreducibly complex and/ or contain complex specified information. Potential falsification: Observe that living organisms arise from non-living matter via a mixture of commonly-found-in-nature chemicals. Observe that while some systems “appear” to be irreducibly complex it can be demonstrated that they can indeed arise via purely stochastic processes such as culled genetic accidents. Also demonstrate that the apparent command & control can also be explained by endothermic and/or exothermic reactions. Confirmation: Living organisms are irreducibly complex and contain irreducibly complex subsystems. The information required to build and maintain a single-celled organism is both complex and specified. Command & control is observed in single-celled organisms- the bacterial flagellum not only has to be configured correctly, indicating command & control over the assembly process, but it also has to function, indicating command & control over functionality.Joseph
September 5, 2009
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I would like to find the specific junk DNA prediction. I have heard this before but I haven't been able to track down the actual statement. Did it say ALL "junk" DNA would be found to have a function or only some? That sounds like an excellent arena for ID research; is any one doing that?ellazimm
September 5, 2009
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Upright
Design also predicted in 1968 that the DNA would not be reducible to chance and necessity. Without special pleading on the part of materialist, it not.
Really? Reference please. And "design" is not capable of predicting anything. People are. Who made that prediction then? Name please. And until the origin of DNA is known then that prediction stands. So what use is it? I predict that the origin of DNA will not be known until the origin of DNA is known. Same as your prediction. That's just great. That really moves science on. Tell me, is that the best "design" prediction that you have? That the origin of DNA will never be discovered? That's just great. I have to assume it's the best as otherwise you'd have said your best. You are not holding back on me are you? Whereas "darwinism" has many predictions. Predictions that can be tested. Predictions that have been tested. And guess what? Predictions that have been validated. And yet the best you can do is some vague "prediction" from a few decades ago that really predicts nothing all all except ignorance. Ignorance of something's origin is not a prediction. What happens when/if it's origin is discovered? According to you, ID is invalidated at that point. That what you want? I guess you'll just move onto the next "prediction" at that point.
Without special pleading on the part of materialist, it not.
I'm sure your next comment will explain how ID explains the origin of DNA. Or does "special pleading" cut both ways here? So, c'mon Upright. How does ID explain the origin of DNA without "special pleading"? Answer: It does not. Prediction: You will pretend I did not ask.Blue Lotus
September 5, 2009
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Blue, Design also predicted in 1968 that the DNA would not be reducible to chance and necessity. Without special pleading on the part of materialist, it not.Upright BiPed
September 5, 2009
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PaV
Enormous predictive power? Really? It seems to me that if there is any “power” to Darwin’s theory, then it must come from its ability to demonstrate how new structures arise, not how previously occurring structures disappeared.
If there is any "power" to Dembski's ID theory, then it must come from it's ability to demonstrate how new structures arise, not how previously occurring structures disappeared. Does it? No. Then I guess it has no power. What does ID predict that could be tested in a lab? Anything whatsoever? What does ID predict that could be tested in any way whatsoever? Will Kariosfocus ever formally write up his "work" on FSCI and publish it? Join us next week for the answers to all these quesitons, and more besides! Tell me Pav, given that Hoyle, that well known Biologist, in his book “The Mathematics of Evolution” ignores much of basic population genetics theory how much credence can you honestly put in his work on Biology at this time?
predicts, if you will— that if a species moves away from its current genotype by more than two amino acids in any particular gene, then the loss of gene function will never again be recovered.
And this support ID does it? Tell me PaV, if that was true, how does it support ID? If it was false, how does that support Darwinism? If I understand your point it seems to be "Darwinism can't predict things, therefore ID!" Or have I missed where the support for ID was in this blog post. Attacking Darwinism does not support ID in any way.
OTOH, using real numbers with equations that realistically represent life, UDers would predict that the operative gene-transcribed protein would be off by only two amino acids. To me this is the more impressive prediction.
The how are you going to test that? What lab work or studies have you arranged to test that? Are you going to wait around for somebody else to do so actual work on the subject and them claim it as your own perhaps? Armchair ID science? Or will you get out of your chair and try to validate your prediction? I doubt it. Yet it won't stop you from predicting all sorts of other things no doubt. Write up a proposal. Submit it to the Biologic people. Or even the Templeton people. Do the work, reap the rewards. Don't do the work, don't expect people to take you or ID seriously as a scientific endeavour.Blue Lotus
September 5, 2009
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