Uncommon Descent Serving The Intelligent Design Community

False, trivial, obvious

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Where is ID on this scale?

Bruce G. Charlton Editor-in-Chief, Medical Hypotheses

“An old joke about the response to revolutionary new scientific theories states that there are three phases on the road to acceptance: 1. The theory is not true; 2. The theory is true, but it is unimportant; 3. The theory is true, and it is important – but we knew it all along. The point of this joke is that (according to scientific theorists) new theories are never properly appreciated. The ‘false’ phase happens because a defining feature of a revolutionary theory is that it contradicts the assumptions of already-existing mainstream theory. The second ‘trivial’ phase follows from a preliminary analysis which suggests that the new idea is not in fact contradicted by the major existing evidence, but the new theory seems unimportant because its implications do not seem to lead anywhere interesting when explored in the light of current theory. A stronger version of this second phase happens when the implications of a theory are regarded as not merely unimportant but actually dangerous, because a scientific revolution is certainly destructive (especially of established reputations) yet its potential benefits are conjectural. However, once a new and revolutionary theory is in place, its importance is ‘obvious’ such that it becomes hard to imagine how anybody could ever have believed anything else.”

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Comments
Thanks, russ. I think examples like this are legion, so I'm not sure Harrison is unique in this regard. However, for those interested in astronomy or navigation, "Longitude" gives an excellent overview of that lengthy and fascinating episode in history, which has been largely forgotten in the modern era. Definitely worth a read.Eric Anderson
July 7, 2008
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I think with ID we are still at the "false" phase, even if some smart attempts at "trivial" can occasionally be observed. For instance, the many unsubstantiated incarnations of neo-neo darwinism, evo devo and similar have more a taste of "Look, we have so many new evolutionary toys, why bother with those boring epistemological and mathemathical reasonings of IDists?" than of the old good "Stupid dirty IDiots!" a la Moran, Myers or Dawkins. Personally, and I have never made a mystery of that, I do prefer to fight "the hard way".gpuccio
July 6, 2008
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Has anyone here blogged on John Harrison, the uneducated, country clockmaker who solved the problem of determining longitude? http://www.amazon.com/Longitude-Genius-Greatest-Scientific-Problem/dp/0802714625/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1215350042&sr=8-1 Harrison was thwarted at every turn, by "Big Science" whose highly-credentialed members thought that the problem of longitude could be solved ONLY by astronomy (they were astronomers!). Their tedious and convoluted (as well as impractical) methods so paled in comparison to Harrison's use of highly precise timepieces, that they had to resort to all kinds of devious methods and bullying to thwart him, even to the point of confiscating his clocks and "accidentally" dropping one in the process.russ
July 6, 2008
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"After this generation of materialists returns to the dust from which they came, the newer generation might embrace ID." Include me on that list. Along with a couple other close friends who are deep within enemy territory trying not to suffer from Stockholm's syndrome. If, or when we do rise to the top, let's promise not to give tomorrow's dissenters the same treatment they give us today.F2XL
July 5, 2008
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Well, ID is surelly in the "Fight You" level. About the "You Win" stage: well, a very broad version of ID might be accepted, but probably not scientific the one currently proposed by yhe Discovery Institute. After this generation of materialists returns to the dust from which they came, the newer generation might embrace ID.Mats
July 5, 2008
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Or, as Gandhi put it:
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
ID seems to have progressed nicely to the 'then they fight you' stage. We've almost won!EndoplasmicMessenger
July 5, 2008
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