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FAQ4 is Open for Comment

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4. ID does not make scientifically fruitful predictions.

This claim is simply false. To cite just one example, the non-functionality of “junk DNA” was predicted by Susumu Ohno (1972), Richard Dawkins (1976), Crick and Orgel (1980), Pagel and Johnstone (1992), and Ken Miller (1994), based on evolutionary presuppositions. In contrast, on teleological grounds, Michael Denton (1986, 1998), Michael Behe (1996), John West (1998), William Dembski (1998), Richard Hirsch (2000), and Jonathan Wells (2004) predicted that “junk DNA” would be found to be functional.

The Intelligent Design predictions are being confirmed and the Darwinist predictions are being falsified. For instance, ENCODE’s June 2007 results show substantial functionality across the genome in such “junk DNA” regions, including pseudogenes.

Thus, it is a matter of simple fact that scientists working in the ID paradigm carry out and publish research, and they have made significant and successful ID-based predictions.

A more general and long term prediction of ID is that the complexity of living things will be shown to be much higher than currently thought. Darwin thought the cell was a relatively simple blob of gelatinous carbon. He was wrong. We now known the cell is a high-tech information processing system, with superbly functionally integrated machinery, error-correction-and-repair systems, and much more that surpasses the most sophisticated efforts of the best human mathematicians, mechanical, electrical, chemical, and software engineers. The prediction that living systems will turn out to be vastly more complicated than previously thought (and thus much less likely to have evolved through naturalistic means) will continue to be verified in the years to come.

Comments
What part of transcription and translation- complete with proof-reading, error-correction and editing, strikes you as being cobbled together via an acumulation of genetic accidents?
Arguments via personal incredulity are not very effective.
How can we test the premise that a bacterial flagellum, for example, arose from a population that never had one via an acumulation of genetic accidents?
It would appear that there is sufficient evidence to indicate the "the" bacterial flagellum arose via the cooption of parts of other systems, but I do not consider myself well versed on the subject. How do you propose we test the hypothesis that "the" bacterial flagellum was designed by a non-natural intelligence? Via analogy? Analogies are not arguments or evidence. It is a shame that despite the fact that the subject of this thread is the supposed "prediction" of junkDNA function by ID advocates - 'predictions' made in somme cases decades after functions had already been identified - that that very fact is being ignored.derwood
April 26, 2009
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That's "Tiktaalik."Diffaxial
April 26, 2009
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Joseph:
If the theory of evolution is true then we should observe ________.
- convergent phylogenetic hierarchies (eg. paleontological and genetic) - chronological fossil series - geographic distributions of features - transitional forms - eg. Tiktallik, the cynodont therapsids, hominid evolution, legged fossil whales, etc.) - inactivated human genes for the production of vitamin C - flightless birds species necessarily unique to the islands upon which they are found. - incipient/recent speciation in allopatrically separated populations etc. etc. etc. etc.
And as I said both IC and CSI are signs of design and to refute that all one has to do is demonstrate that IC and CSI can arise without agency involvement- ie nature, operating freely.
Oops - another "test" that revolves around the lack of success of predictions arising from an alternative theory, which asserts that complex structures meeting the definition of ID arise by means of scaffolding, exaptation, etc. Whether or not you agree that the above predictions have been confirmed (another question entirely - and we already know you don't, so don't bother going there), what would strengthen this FAQ are predictions of analogous specificity that arise uniquely from ID, such that failure to observe puts ID at risk of disconfirmation.Diffaxial
April 26, 2009
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And Zachriel couldn’t explain anything.
Well, that could be demonstrated if he were allowed the opportunity to comment.Alan Fox
April 26, 2009
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Oops- "diS"...Joseph
April 26, 2009
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Oops- i forgot the "did": If design were true, as with ALL design-centric venues, we would expect to see signs of design. If we do not observe signs of design then ID is at risk of DISconfirmation.Joseph
April 26, 2009
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What part of transcription and translation- complete with proof-reading, error-correction and editing, strikes you as being cobbled together via an acumulation of genetic accidents? And How can we test the premise that a bacterial flagellum, for example, arose from a population that never had one via an acumulation of genetic accidents?Joseph
April 26, 2009
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Alan Fox:
I know I only trained as a biochemist and not a marine biologist (where was that, Joe?) but I am pretty sure that if DNA comparisons, fossil evidence etc., showed that the xpected pattern of common descent was wrong, the T of E would be in trouble.
But there isn't any expected pattern based on random mutations and natural selection. And Zachriel couldn't explain anything.Joseph
April 26, 2009
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Alan, the theory of evolution does not predict a nested hierarchy- nevermind a nested hierarchy based on the proposed mechanisms.
I know I only trained as a biochemist and not a marine biologist (where was that, Joe?) but I am pretty sure that if DNA comparisons, fossil evidence etc., showed that the xpected pattern of common descent was wrong, the T of E would be in trouble. There is a former poster, Zachriel, who would explain it much more clearly than I could, if perhaps Barry could be persuaded to reactivate his account.Alan Fox
April 26, 2009
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And BTW we do not observe a nested hierarchy throughout living organisms. So if we listen to YOU the theory of evolution is disconfirmed.Joseph
April 26, 2009
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Alan, the theory of evolution does not predict a nested hierarchy- nevermind a nested hierarchy based on the proposed mechanisms. IOW all you are doing is proving that you don't know anything and you are just a blind follower of the unreasonable.Joseph
April 26, 2009
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Re Joe's question to Diffaxial Ooh pick me!!! "Nested hierarchy" BTW Joe, I must have missed your response about where you studied marine biology.Alan Fox
April 26, 2009
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And once again: If design were true, as with ALL design-centric venues, we would expect to see signs of design. If we do not observe signs of design then ID is at risk of confirmation. And as I said both IC and CSI are signs of design and to refute that all one has to do is demonstrate that IC and CSI can arise without agency involvement- ie nature, operating freely.Joseph
April 26, 2009
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Diffaxial: If the theory of evolution is true then we should observe ________. If we don’t observe _______ our theory is at risk of disconfirmation.Joseph
April 26, 2009
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So... Is the reason that ID alledgedly predicts that there will be little junk DNA because some prominent ID figures have said that THEY think that that's the way it should be? That's the only justification I think I've seen (in Barry's original post).Hoki
April 26, 2009
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Joseph:
Diffaxial, I have answered Reciprocating_Bill’s original challenge.
Why not repeat your response here, for the purpose of being helpful to the FAQ?Diffaxial
April 26, 2009
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One for the evolutionists: If the theory of evolution is true then we should observe ________. If we don’t observe _______ our theory is at risk of disconfirmation.Joseph
April 26, 2009
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Diffaxial, I have answered Reciprocating_Bill’s original challenge. That you choose to ignore it says more about you than it does about ID. And again YOU talk of predictrions yet the theory of evolution does not have any predictions based on the proposed mechanisms. IOW it appears as if you like to be ignorant.Joseph
April 26, 2009
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mauka:
There is a certain desperation on the part of ID supporters in their search for supposed failed predictions of “Darwinism”.
The theory of evolution does NOT make any predictions based on the proposed mechanisms. So it would be very hard to find any "failed predictions". And in the end all evolutionists have are magical mystery mutations. Magical because they change one thing into another. And mysterious because they have never been observed.Joseph
April 26, 2009
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It seems to me that in order for someone to make a prediction, they cannot or should not already know that what they are predicting has already been discovered. That is, in order for ID advocates to take credit for "predicting" function in junkDNA, that such function should not already have been discovered, otherwise, they are not really making predictions. So I have to wonder what the status of papers like: Cell. 1975 Feb;4(2):107-11. The general affinity of lac repressor for E. coli DNA: implications for gene regulation in procaryotes and eucaryotes. In which a function for junkDNA was predicted, or maybe this one: A general function of noncoding polynucleotide sequences 1981 Zuckerkandl. wherein it is proposed that junk DNA acts as transcription factor binding sites and such (which it does). Or any of the papers cited here. What do ALL of these papers have in common? 1. They were researched and written by run of the mill evolutionists. 2. They pre-date the supposed ID predictions by decades. It is not fair to claim that ID advocates 'predicted' something after the fact. Wels' supposed 2004 'prediction' is especially suspect.derwood
April 26, 2009
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Further on complexity in relation to design: Why must design products be complex? In some quarters, the hallmark of good design is simplicity.Adel DiBagno
April 26, 2009
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gpuccio [30] I had written
I think also that the statement:
A more general and long term prediction of ID is that the complexity of living things will be shown to be much higher than currently thought.
is not even remotely dispositive, being vague and not unique to any theory of origins.
To which you responded:
It is not vague.
Vague = lacking in detail. Just saying that you expect complexity is not dispositive because it doesn't uniquely define what you expect. You also said:
There are not many “theories of origins”. If RV and NS are ruled out, what are we left with? I’ll tell you. Design, or no theory.
This the logical fallacy of false disjunction: Either A or B Not A Therefore B See Diffaxial [19]:
And, preemptively, your prediction must not be in the form, “ID is falsifiable. All someone needs to do is show that RM & NS can generate complex biological systems.” That refers to the success or failure of predictions made by an alternative theory, and therefore fails to really test ID (both theories could be wrong).
Adel DiBagno
April 26, 2009
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gpuccio @ 45
The problem here is not if the designer acted more or less graduallly. If you knew ID, you would know that the theory infers design only if the observed information is beyond the range of what mutation and selection can accomplish.
Unfortunately, you are equivocating on "weak ID" (merely asserting the possibility of design detection) and "strong ID" (positive assertions about design). Your original suggested prediction,
If design is true ... we will repeatedly observe “saltations” corresponding to a sudden increse in information in the emergent protein...
Is clearly an instance of "strong ID," an assertion about what must be observed if ID is true. Were saltationism actually a necessary posit of your version of strong ID, your suggestion might meet Reciprocating_Bill's original challenge. But arguing that "ID can only detect design when it rises above a certain threshold" isn't an entailment of your theory. It is a limitation of your proposed method.
You say: “both theories can be wrong”. That’s true, and so?
And so ID needs to make positive predictions that are powerful enough to place it at risk of disconfirmation independently of the fate of predictions arising from an alternative theory. The failure of predictions arising from an alternative theory won't do, because that result provides no information with bearing upon the question of whether ID is also wrong. The success of the alternative theory certainly would render "strong ID" irrelevant, without actually disproving it. Conceivably, both theories could be right in some instances, but ID's uselessness when it comes to actually guiding research ultimately commands preference for the more productive theoretical framework. The fact that research conducted from within an alternative framework, which continues apace with no input whatsoever from the design hypothesis, represents your best case exemplar of research capable of disconfirmation of ID - and the fact that no one can suggest a stronger test such as requested by Reciprocating_Bill - should leave you deeply suspicious that ID has no relevance to empirical research whatsoever. So, no, these aren't logical exercises. This is where the rubber meets the road. An effective rebuttal of the above is to offer responses to Reciprocating_Bill's original challenge. Your FAQ will be much stronger if you do so. That's all.Diffaxial
April 26, 2009
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The "junk DNA" prediction of Darwinists is symptomatic of a larger problem with Darwinian theory. Lacking transitional fossils, they pointed to "vestigial" organs as filling the gap. When that failed, they pointed to junk DNA as a way to fill the gap. They also frequently point to "design flaws," which is also often another major science stopper. Instead of examining the matter further, they simply point at things as being flawed as a result of evolutionary history without examining alternative hypotheses. Intelligent Design theory has an advantage in all of these areas and would promote fruitful scientific discoveries.TCS
April 26, 2009
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gpuccio:
I have been in partial disagreement with many of my fellow IDists, including Dembski, and still esteem and love them.
That's good news. It means that Dembski can still love himself, despite disagreeing with himself on this issue.mauka
April 26, 2009
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gpuccio:
I absolutely agree, however, that the theory of ID proper (design detection) in itself does not give us clues about those motives.
Then you presumably agree with the following statement:
The theory of ID proper does not predict that junk DNA will be functional.
Right?mauka
April 26, 2009
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gpuccio wrote:
Just to clarify: all designers are micropoofers. When I write a post here, I am not just creating it in a single moment, and then waiting for the words to develop on the screen from my instant poof. I micropoof consistently and gradually when I write...
gpuccio, We're not micropoofers, because nothing supernatural has to happen for us to compose a comment. No poofs required. Your Designer, on the other hand, has to poof his edits into the biosphere -- unless you are going to claim that your designer isn't God, but rather some physical being, a genetic leprechaun who scampers around and alters genomes when we aren't looking. P.S. Now that 'poof', 'micropoof' and 'macropoof' are becoming part of the vocabulary here, do you think Barry regrets bringing up poofs in the first place?mauka
April 26, 2009
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GP: Excellent inputs! In particular, the data point that 98.5% of the human genome is non-coding for protein, and its latching on to by the Darwinist thinkers as "obviously" the result of accumulated mutational accidents = junk in the DNA attic, is key. And, in the face of such a "strong" data point [we have to look back at how it looked when it was freshly apparent that a lot of the DNA set did not code for proteins], to predict that much of the 98.5% will turn out to have other functions BECAUSE designers usually incorporate functions in the major features of their designs was equally obviously risky. (Indeed, I recall being derided by an acerbic Darwinist in another forum several years ago, before the ENCODE results were in -- "lookit all that junk"; surely a designer would not do that, etc etc.) But now, some years later, the evidence has begun to roll in, and -- predictably! -- there is an attempt to re-write the history and the terms of the exchange, to try to minimise the impact of the success of such a risky prediction. That tells us a lot. But also, we should note on the point that the WAC discussion was being deliberately brief and simple. In revising it I think a cite or two would help ground the facts further, and reference to the 98.5% "junk" figure would help. Onward, I observe the bluff that RV + NS is capable of getting to the sort of increments in genetic information we are discussing: starting at about 500 - 1,000 bits of info, equivalent to 250 - 500 DNA based, or 170 amino acids. At the upper end of the threshold, we are talking about more configurations than the SQUARE of the 10^150 or so quantum states of the atoms of the observed universe across its estimated lifetime. Indeed -- as you are wont to observe -- even the lower end is very overgenerous, as for macroevo to happen in the window of the Cambrian on earth, or subsequently, we are talking of a lot fewer atoms on the Earth's surface [the whole earth weighs about 6 * 10^24 kgs [much of that in Fe, Al, Ni, Si etc . . . Ni-Fe Core and a crust of ceramic "oxides" in large part [SiO2, Fe2O3 etc], including Carbon bearing "oxides": Ca CO3], and the surface zone is a thin crust of that], and a much shorter window. Further to this, the empirical evidence is that just 2 - 3 small mutations is a very serious probabilistic barrier, on the largest scale investigation on such in human history, malaria. And, that fits into the theoretical expectations. Worse, we are not only dealing with the origin of individual proteins, but with the origin of novel body plans and associated organs, cell types and underlying proteins as a tightly integrated functional cluster that has to be expressed starting early in embryonic development. All, expressed in a digital, code-bearing, language based information system that works based on specifically co-tuned molecular nanomachines. (Which raises the onward origin of life issue of where did such a computer come from by spontaneous ordering forces, including the linguistic element of codes and the logical one of algorithms; credibly requiring 600,000 bits of information to get to a functioning independent life form.) We know where FSCI-rich systems are observed to come from: designers. inference to best known explanation, anyone? [And, material distinction between empirically anchored inductive inference and a priori-based deductions? [See why i occasionally have to refer to selective hyperskepticism, since science is about the former not the latter?] We also know -- per search resource exhaustion on the gamut of our observed universe issues -- that forces of mechanical necessity and stochastic explorations of configuration spaces are maximally unlikely to arrive at such organisation starting from any reasonable pre-biotic environment; not to mention, to originate such integrated novel body plans in the same way by accident. So, why is the inference to design so stoutly resisted? ANS: a priori, worldview level commitments to materialism that have become embedded in key institutions in our civilisation. As Mr Lewontin has so openly and publicly declared. So, we have an explanation on the merits of the relevant facts, and in the context of the above, we have a clear point of fact: Darwinists on discovering a large proportion [~ 98.5%] of non protein coding DNA in our genome pounced on that as proof -- they thought -- of junk in the DNA attic. Design thinkers took the opposite position -- designers are more likely to make functional entities, so we just don't understand the function yet. (How I recall being derided over how the non-protein section did not seem to make any sense relative to the AA code!) A few years later, along comes ENCODE, and there is plain evidence of other function, taking up a good slice of the "junk." Risky prediction confirmed, and in a context that brims over with fruitful potential. GEM of TKI PS: I think we need to focus on OOL then on macroevo in that light, when we come to making a systematic survey of the state of origins science, if we are to have a fair and balanced understanding of what is going on, what is at stake and where the balance on the merits lies.kairosfocus
April 26, 2009
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mauka:
In other words, gpuccio, you are assuming that you know something about the designer’s objectives, and that putting large amounts of nonfunctional DNA into the genome isn’t among them. My point is that without this assumption, you could not make any predictions regarding the functionality of junk DNA.
Correct.
You are willing to assume that the designer would not do something as senseless (to you and me) as filling the genome mostly with junk, but that puts you at odds with those of your fellow ID supporters who insist that ID can make no assumptions about the designer’s motives and objectives (see the Dembski quote in #55, for example).
I can live with that. As far as I know, ID is not a dogmatic club. I have been in partial disagreement with many of my fellow IDists, including Dembski, and still esteem and love them. And as far as I know, ID does not state that we cannot try to understand the motives of the designer. I absolutely agree, however, that the theory of ID proper (design detection) in itself does not give us clues about those motives. But once design is inferred, it is perfectly correct to try to ask other questions about the designer, and try to answer them through all possible means. That has always been my position here, and I believe it is shared by many.gpuccio
April 26, 2009
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mauka: Always to clarify (and believe me, without any reluctance), I am not necessarily a strict micropoofer. According to what we know of natural history, some poofs are really big: OOL, the cambrian and similar explosions, and so on. But many other seem to be more gradual. So, even in the field of poof analysis, I prefer to stick to empiricism, and not ideology :-)gpuccio
April 26, 2009
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