Uncommon Descent Serving The Intelligent Design Community

FAQ4 is Open for Comment

Categories
Intelligent Design
Share
Facebook
Twitter/X
LinkedIn
Flipboard
Print
Email

4. ID does not make scientifically fruitful predictions.

This claim is simply false. To cite just one example, the non-functionality of “junk DNA” was predicted by Susumu Ohno (1972), Richard Dawkins (1976), Crick and Orgel (1980), Pagel and Johnstone (1992), and Ken Miller (1994), based on evolutionary presuppositions. In contrast, on teleological grounds, Michael Denton (1986, 1998), Michael Behe (1996), John West (1998), William Dembski (1998), Richard Hirsch (2000), and Jonathan Wells (2004) predicted that “junk DNA” would be found to be functional.

The Intelligent Design predictions are being confirmed and the Darwinist predictions are being falsified. For instance, ENCODE’s June 2007 results show substantial functionality across the genome in such “junk DNA” regions, including pseudogenes.

Thus, it is a matter of simple fact that scientists working in the ID paradigm carry out and publish research, and they have made significant and successful ID-based predictions.

A more general and long term prediction of ID is that the complexity of living things will be shown to be much higher than currently thought. Darwin thought the cell was a relatively simple blob of gelatinous carbon. He was wrong. We now known the cell is a high-tech information processing system, with superbly functionally integrated machinery, error-correction-and-repair systems, and much more that surpasses the most sophisticated efforts of the best human mathematicians, mechanical, electrical, chemical, and software engineers. The prediction that living systems will turn out to be vastly more complicated than previously thought (and thus much less likely to have evolved through naturalistic means) will continue to be verified in the years to come.

Comments
kairosfocus was unable to answer this question:
How is it possible for ID to predict that junk DNA is functional if nothing is known about the designer’s objectives?
gpuccio took a stab at it, somewhat obliquely:
ID predicts that non coding DNA is functional simply because it is there, it forms 98.5% of our genome, and there is no reason why, if the genome is designed, most of it should be non functional. So, the best explanation from an ID perspective is that it is functional, but we still don’t understand the function.
In other words, gpuccio, you are assuming that you know something about the designer's objectives, and that putting large amounts of nonfunctional DNA into the genome isn't among them. My point is that without this assumption, you could not make any predictions regarding the functionality of junk DNA. You are willing to assume that the designer would not do something as senseless (to you and me) as filling the genome mostly with junk, but that puts you at odds with those of your fellow ID supporters who insist that ID can make no assumptions about the designer's motives and objectives (see the Dembski quote in #55, for example). It also opens a can of worms for you as an ID supporter. For if you argue that the designer would not fill the genome largely with nonfunctional junk, how can you argue that he would design something as wasteful as the recurrent laryngeal nerve of mammals, including the giraffe?
In mammals, for instance, the recurrent laryngeal nerve does not go directly from the cranium to the larynx, the way any competent engineer would have arranged it. Instead, it extends down the neck to the chest, loops around a lung ligament and then runs back up the neck to the larynx. In a giraffe, that means a 20-foot length of nerve where 1 foot would have done. If this is evidence of design, it would seem to be of the unintelligent variety.
And believe me, the recurrent laryngeal nerve is just the tip of the iceberg. There are dozens of other examples of wasteful, illogical and kludgy "designs" for you to confront. Are you prepared to explain why your sensible designer has done all these senseless things? -- I've always felt this argument quite poor, for reasons already given. And that discussion does not even take into account potential Intelligent Evolution hypotheses. -- Patrickmauka
April 26, 2009
April
04
Apr
26
26
2009
12:55 AM
12
12
55
AM
PDT
mauka: Just to clarify: all designers are micropoofers. When I write a post here, I am not just creating it in a single moment, and then waiting for the words to develop on the screen from my instant poof. I micropoof consistently and gradually when I write, when I speak, when I write computer code (which I do, just a little), and so on. And so, I am certain, do you. So, welcome to the category of micropoofers. Why would you want to shut out from our group the designer(s) of biological information?gpuccio
April 26, 2009
April
04
Apr
26
26
2009
12:54 AM
12
12
54
AM
PDT
mauka:
Mechanism #2 is the most plausible, but it is embarrassing to ID supporters because of its reliance on continual micropoofs over time.
Why embarrassing? I am not embarrassed at all.
For these reasons, I think that most ID supporters, when they talk about it at all, will admit (reluctantly and with some embarrassment) to being micropoofers.
Why reluctantly? I am not reluctant at all. ID allows me to be an intellectually satisfied micropoofer :-)gpuccio
April 26, 2009
April
04
Apr
26
26
2009
12:46 AM
12
12
46
AM
PDT
Dembski makes two mistakes in the quote in #57. 1. ID predicts that there will be little junk DNA. 2. Evolution predicts that there will be lots of junk DNA.Hoki
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
10:12 PM
10
10
12
PM
PDT
Never mind. I found it (or at least one of them) here:
Consider the term "junk DNA." Implicit in this term is the view that because the genome of an organism has been cobbled together through a long, undirected evolutionary process, the genome is a patchwork of which only limited portions are essential to the organism. Thus on an evolutionary view we expect a lot of useless DNA. If, on the other hand, organisms are designed, we expect DNA as much as possible to exhibit function. Intelligent Design, p. 150
Bill, since you seem to be hanging out at UD tonight, could you comment on the discrepancy?mauka
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
09:12 PM
9
09
12
PM
PDT
Wow. I wonder how Dembski can reconcile that with his junk DNA position. Does anyone have a link to Dembski's original statement regarding junk DNA?mauka
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
08:57 PM
8
08
57
PM
PDT
Another quote from Dembski: (Very similar to the one I gave in #51) (http://www.arn.org/docs/dembski/wd_isidtestable.htm)
But what about the predictive power of intelligent design? To require prediction fundamentally misconstrues design. To require prediction of design is to put design in the same boat as natural laws, locating their explanatory power in an extrapolation from past experience. This is to commit a category mistake. To be sure, designers, like natural laws, can behave predictably (designers often institute policies that end up being rigidly obeyed). Yet unlike natural laws, which are universal and uniform, designers are also innovators. Innovation, the emergence to true novelty, eschews predictability. Designers are inventors. We cannot predict what an inventor would do short of becoming that inventor. Intelligent design offers a radically different problematic for science than a mechanistic science wedded solely to undirected natural causes. Yes, intelligent design concedes predictability.
Hoki
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
08:38 PM
8
08
38
PM
PDT
I'm sorry if I appeared sexist. You could be a poofette.jerry
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
07:17 PM
7
07
17
PM
PDT
I have a question. Is your comment a micropoof or a macropoof? And does that make you a poofer?jerry
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
07:15 PM
7
07
15
PM
PDT
Alan Fox writes:
I can recall wondering where all the other information that must be needed for growing, say, a human being was stored, if the DNA only coded for proteins. Later it was a surprise to hear that genomes contained so much non-coding DNA. I don’t recall the existence of junk DNA being an indication that the theory of evolution was thus more or less likely to be correct. Just that our understanding was far from complete. Work continues.
True. There is a certain desperation on the part of ID supporters in their search for supposed failed predictions of "Darwinism". Their algorithm seems to work like this: 1. Wait for working scientists to make an interesting new discovery X. 2. Find a "Darwinist" who is either surprised by X or who actually predicted not-X. 3. Claim that "Darwinism" therefore predicts not-X and that the prediction has been falsified. Step 2 is easy since 99.9% of practicing biologists are "Darwinists" and there is always a range of opinions regarding any hot area of research. What ID supporters never do is to explain how Darwinian principles lead to the supposed "prediction". It's always just "a Darwinist said it; therefore Darwinism predicts it."
In the hope this is not naive like the small boy watching the emperor parade in his new clothes, but how does ID explain biological information? Is it really just that a designer steps in and adds bits as necessary?
Under the "big tent" of ID, I'm aware of three possible "mechanisms" by which the designer can impart information to a genome: 1. The designer creates lifeforms fully formed, ab initio. These forms can change over time but only within strict limits enforced by stabilizing selection. What I'm describing is, of course, creationism. To borrow the language of Barry's other thread, you might call this the macropoof mechanism. One big Poof followed by no active intervention. 2. The designer inserts information discretely over time, guiding descent with modification as it unfolds. In keeping with the language of the other thread, you might call this the micropoof mechanism. Lots of little poofs along the way, as needed. 3. The designer imparts the information all at once, as in mechanism #1, but different portions of the information are turned on and off at different times and places as descent with modification unfolds. The expression of previously dormant information is presumably triggered by internal timer mechanisms or by external environmental cues, or both. Mechanism #2 is the most plausible, but it is embarrassing to ID supporters because of its reliance on continual micropoofs over time. Mechanism #1 has the the advantage of requiring only one embarrassing poof, discreetly tucked away in the mists of history. However, it runs afoul of the enormous mass of scientific evidence in favor of descent with modification. Mechanism #3 shares the advantage of requiring only one embarrassing macropoof, and it doesn't butt its head against the evidence for descent with modification. It does, however, have a huge flaw: it depends on the preservation, over billions of years, of unexpressed genetic information. Natural selection can only act to preserve information that is expressed. Unexpressed information quickly decays due to accumulated mutations. For these reasons, I think that most ID supporters, when they talk about it at all, will admit (reluctantly and with some embarrassment) to being micropoofers. There are definitely lots of macropoofers and front-loaders out there, however.mauka
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
05:40 PM
5
05
40
PM
PDT
Oramus:
Why would you think predicting all DNA having some type of function requires reference to a designer?
Because in order to do so, you have to make the assumption that the designer COULD and WANTED all DNA to have function. ID doesn't make that assumption any more than it assumes that the designer was the god of the bible. To use Dembski's own words: (http://www.arn.org/docs/dembski/wd_idcomingclean.htm)
To be sure, designers, like natural laws, can behave predictably. Yet unlike natural laws, which are universal and uniform, designers are also innovators. Innovation, the emergence of true novelty, eschews predictability. It follows that design cannot be subsumed under a Humean inductive framework. Designers are inventors. We cannot predict what an inventor would do short of becoming that inventor
Hoki
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
05:16 PM
5
05
16
PM
PDT
Genomes may contain a lot of non-protein-coding DNA, but that DNA still codes for other RNAs and regulates the use of those protein-coding sections. Genomes also contain the information required for proof-reading, error-correction and editing. None of which would lead an objective to person to the evolutionary postion of accumulated genetic accidents.Joseph
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
03:26 PM
3
03
26
PM
PDT
Alan Fox: If you observe a saltation in information content, and that saltation has both complexity (it is utterly unexplainable as a random effect) and sepcification (it has function and purpose), and there is no theory based on necesiity which can explain that change, then the only observed explanation of that kind of situation in our whole observational experience is the action of a designer. So, yes, a designer steps in and adds bits of functional information as necessary. According to a plan. For a purpose. Consciously. Like we are doing when we blog here.gpuccio
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
03:00 PM
3
03
00
PM
PDT
Alan Fox:
I can recall wondering where all the other information that must be needed for growing, say, a human being was stored, if the DNA only coded for proteins.
You definitely had the right attitude. That question remains absolutely valid, although many seem to have forgotten it.
Work continues.
I agree. And am happy of that.
I am not suggesting hundreds of coordinated mutations. But single sifted cumulative mutations…
Again, go to the discussion on the other thread, please. Mutations can cumulate only if each is selected. Otherwise, their probability is equal to the cumulative probability of the whole change which brings the new function. I will accept the "cumulative mutations" model only when someone shows at least one model where those single mutations are fixed and expanded by natural selection. In other words, when you can deconstruct all the path of transformation towards a new protein in sinle steps on 1 or 2 aminoacid mutations (indeed, for the sake of discussion, I have concede to Adel 4), and each step is selectable for a new or increased function bringing a reproductive advantage. IOW, a single credible model of macroevolution.gpuccio
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
02:55 PM
2
02
55
PM
PDT
ID does explain biological information, and darwinian theory doesn’t.
This is obviously the crux of what I don't understand. In the hope this is not naive like the small boy watching the emperor parade in his new clothes, but how does ID explain biological information. Is it really just that a designer steps in and adds bits as necessary?Alan Fox
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
02:55 PM
2
02
55
PM
PDT
Please, go to the thread “Extra Characters to the Biological Code”, where a very detailed discussion about that is taking place between me, Adel DiBagno and Nakashima. We cannot repeat the same things thousands of times, each time somebody wants to evade the actual discussion being made.
I have been reading the thread as time permits.Alan Fox
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
02:49 PM
2
02
49
PM
PDT
Diffaxial:
Otherwise, the failure to observe what you predict could easily be accommodated by stating, “the designer utilized gradualistic change that also happens to be within the range of what mutation and selection can accomplish.”
No, you are wrong. The problem here is not if the designer acted more or less graduallly. If you knew ID, you would know that the theory infers design only if the observed information is beyond the range of what mutation and selection can accomplish. Therefore, your objection has no sense. If a good theroy based on randomness and/or necessity can explain the emergence of biological information, then ID is falsified. Creationist may go on saying that "“the designer utilized gradualistic change that also happens to be within the range of what mutation and selection can accomplish.” But ID will be falsified. Again, you don't know, or don't understand, what ID is. You say:
The failure of nature to conform to the predictions of orthodox evolutionary theory does not amount to support for ID: both theories can be wrong. Therefore predictions arising from “the other” theory are not really tests of ID.
Yes, it doesamount to support for ID. Again, you forget that we are talking empirical science here, and not logical demonstartions. I am really surprised of how often I have to repeat this simple epistemological concept, which should be obvious to anybody who deals with empirical science. If what you call "orthodox evolutionary theory" is proced wrong, then ID is at present the best explanation, I would say the only explanation. You say: "both theories can be wrong". That's true, and so? If and when a better explanation arises, we will be happy to embrace it. we are not darwinists, after all :-) Until then, ID remains the best explanation. Because you seem to miss the important point: ID does explain biological information, and darwinian theory doesn't.gpuccio
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
02:47 PM
2
02
47
PM
PDT
I think you really don’t understand ID.
I really don't. you are absolutely right.Alan Fox
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
02:47 PM
2
02
47
PM
PDT
b) Destroying a function by even one single random mutation is certainly possible and easy. Building a new complex function by hundreds of coordinated random mutations is not.
I am not suggesting hundreds of coordinated mutations. But single sifted cumulative mutations...Alan Fox
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
02:45 PM
2
02
45
PM
PDT
Not long after the genetic code was first elucidated and all triplets were found to code via RNA for an amino acid (or stop codon), I can recall wondering where all the other information that must be needed for growing, say, a human being was stored, if the DNA only coded for proteins. Later it was a surprise to hear that genomes contained so much non-coding DNA. I don't recall the existence of junk DNA being an indication that the theory of evolution was thus more or less likely to be correct. Just that our understanding was far from complete. Work continues.Alan Fox
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
02:42 PM
2
02
42
PM
PDT
Alan Fox: "This doesn’t make sense. Do you mean the coining and rapid uptake of the word “junk”? Sorry, you will have to parse." No, I mean the silly coining and the rapid uptake of the theory that 98.5% of the human genome was due to the accumulation of non functional material throughout darwinian evolution of the species.gpuccio
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
02:36 PM
2
02
36
PM
PDT
gpuccio:
If design is true then we should observe that in the natural emergence of new proteins in different species, as soon as we know more about them and about protein function, we will repeatedly observe “saltations” corresponding to a sudden increse in information in the emergent protein... If we don’t observe that, and if on the contrary we will observe and define gradual paths of transformation perfectly in the range of what RV and NS can do, in most if not all cases for which enough detail is acquired, then our theory is discomfirmed.
This strikes me as an ad hoc prediction, rather than (as Reciprocating_Bill would have asserted) a "necessary entailment" of ID theory. If you are advancing a peculiar form of ID that constrains the designer to the utilization of change by saltation only, you should state why you believe that must be so, within the framework of your theory. Otherwise, the failure to observe what you predict could easily be accommodated by stating, "the designer utilized gradualistic change that also happens to be within the range of what mutation and selection can accomplish." Your prediction also has the flaw that it "predicts" something that we already know: that the dynamics of protein folding permit only certain stable protein configurations, "between" which we don't expect to find gradual transitions of form. Lastly, the second portion of your assertion runs afoul of this:
And, preemptively, your prediction must not be in the form, “ID is falsifiable. All someone needs to do is show that RM & NS can generate complex biological systems.” That refers to the success or failure of predictions made by an alternative theory, and therefore fails to really test ID (both theories could be wrong).
The failure of nature to conform to the predictions of orthodox evolutionary theory does not amount to support for ID: both theories can be wrong. Therefore predictions arising from "the other" theory are not really tests of ID.Diffaxial
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
02:36 PM
2
02
36
PM
PDT
Alan Fox:
But if the process of RV and NS is true, we will also expect to see sudden increases in information, as a single point mutation can cause a large phenotypic effect (”saltation” if you will) as in achondroplasia.
No, I will not. A single point mutation is in no way a "saltation" in information content. I think you miss the point completely. a) One aminoacid mutation is obviously in the range of what RV can do. b) Destroying a function by even one single random mutation is certainly possible and easy. Building a new complex function by hundreds of coordinated random mutations is not. I think you really don't understand ID. You ask: "How do you establish what is beyond the capacity of random variation probabilistically?" Please, go to the thread "Extra Characters to the Biological Code", where a very detailed discussion about that is taking place between me, Adel DiBagno and Nakashima. We cannot repeat the same things thousands of times, each time somebody wants to evade the actual discussion being made.gpuccio
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
02:34 PM
2
02
34
PM
PDT
Junk was a stupid and arrogant attempt at finding new support for darwinian evolution.
This doesn't make sense. Do you mean the coining and rapid uptake of the word "junk"? Sorry, you will have to parse.Alan Fox
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
02:32 PM
2
02
32
PM
PDT
Hi Joe, Where was it you were studying marine biology? I must have missed your answer.Alan Fox
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
02:30 PM
2
02
30
PM
PDT
Alan Fox:
But who is working at finding out explanations and functions for non-coding DNA. Granted, “junk” was an unfortunate meme that stuck, but is it not mainstream science that is the main engine of research here. Or am I missing some ID research into this area?
Junk was a stupid and arrogant attempt at finding new support for darwinian evolution. It was supposed to show how the presence of such a big quantity of non functional code was evidence of no design, and of the gradual accumulation of errors throughout natural history. It was a deformation of perspective, fully intentional and purposeful, the bad child of a bad theory and of bad dogma. Again, nobody can equal biological research, or what you call "mainstream science", with darwinian theory. Biological research has and must have one purpose: discovering new facts. Darwinian theory is a wrong theory: new facts will destroy it. Therefore, any good research is ID research, if ID is a better theory than darwinism, as we believe. Or any good research will support darwinism in the other case. There is a very simple fact here that a lot of people seem to miss: ID and darwinism are largely alternative theories. They interpret the known facts with completely different models. It is obvious that, as facts accumulate, it will be easier to better compare those contrasting models. Is it so difficult to understand that the accumulation of sequenced genomes will give many answers to questions which can well differentiate between the ID and darwinian position? And that the same is true for protein engineering, for the study of transcriptomes, and for many other fields of biology which are in very quick progress today? Our only purpose is to understand. If darwinian theory is a good theory, it will easily be proven such as our understanding gorws. But the opposite is true, too.gpuccio
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
02:26 PM
2
02
26
PM
PDT
If design were true, as with ALL design-centric venues, we would expect to see signs of design. If we do not observe signs of design then ID is at risk of confirmation. And as I said both IC and CSI are signs of design and to refute that all one has to do is demonstrate that IC and CSI can arise without agency involvement.Joseph
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
02:26 PM
2
02
26
PM
PDT
B L Harville, What is the theory of evolution other than saying "it evolved"? For example how can we test the premise that the bacterial flagellum evolved from a population tat never had one via an accumulation of genetic accidents? What is the hypothesis for such a thing? Trying to answer that will demonstrate just how vague and useless the "theory" is.Joseph
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
02:23 PM
2
02
23
PM
PDT
Alan Fox:
But if the process of RV and NS is true, we will also expect to see sudden increases in information, as a single point mutation can cause a large phenotypic effect (”saltation” if you will) as in achondroplasia.
Achondroplasia doesn't even result in a different species. It is nothing more than a variation within a species. Also Dr Behe's "Edge of Evolution" has withstood attacks. IOW you don't have enough time to get two specified mutations to accumulate.Joseph
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
02:21 PM
2
02
21
PM
PDT
If design is true then we should observe that in the natural emergence of new proteins in different species, as soon as we know more about them and about protein function, we will repeatedly observe “saltations” corresponding to a sudden increse in information in the emergent protein, without any possible selectable intermediate form...
But if the process of RV and NS is true, we will also expect to see sudden increases in information, as a single point mutation can cause a large phenotypic effect ("saltation" if you will) as in achondroplasia.
...and well boyond the probabilistic capacities of random variation.
How do you establish what is beyond the capacity of random variation probabilistically?Alan Fox
April 25, 2009
April
04
Apr
25
25
2009
02:13 PM
2
02
13
PM
PDT
1 4 5 6 7 8

Leave a Reply