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4. ID does not make scientifically fruitful predictions.

This claim is simply false. To cite just one example, the non-functionality of “junk DNA” was predicted by Susumu Ohno (1972), Richard Dawkins (1976), Crick and Orgel (1980), Pagel and Johnstone (1992), and Ken Miller (1994), based on evolutionary presuppositions. In contrast, on teleological grounds, Michael Denton (1986, 1998), Michael Behe (1996), John West (1998), William Dembski (1998), Richard Hirsch (2000), and Jonathan Wells (2004) predicted that “junk DNA” would be found to be functional.

The Intelligent Design predictions are being confirmed and the Darwinist predictions are being falsified. For instance, ENCODE’s June 2007 results show substantial functionality across the genome in such “junk DNA” regions, including pseudogenes.

Thus, it is a matter of simple fact that scientists working in the ID paradigm carry out and publish research, and they have made significant and successful ID-based predictions.

A more general and long term prediction of ID is that the complexity of living things will be shown to be much higher than currently thought. Darwin thought the cell was a relatively simple blob of gelatinous carbon. He was wrong. We now known the cell is a high-tech information processing system, with superbly functionally integrated machinery, error-correction-and-repair systems, and much more that surpasses the most sophisticated efforts of the best human mathematicians, mechanical, electrical, chemical, and software engineers. The prediction that living systems will turn out to be vastly more complicated than previously thought (and thus much less likely to have evolved through naturalistic means) will continue to be verified in the years to come.

Comments
So, what is the ID hypothesis for the appearance of the bacterial flagellum?
That if it was designed it would not be reducible to matter, energy, chance and necessity. What does the ToE say?
What is the ID explanation for as to why there is more than one kind of flagellum in bacteria?
Why does ID have to explain that? The ToE doesn't.
What is the ID explanation for as to why not all bacteria have flagella?
Not all bacteria require one. Your turn: How can we test the premise tat the bacterial flagellum arose from a population that never had one via an acumulation of genetic accidents?Joseph
April 27, 2009
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BTW IDcreationism only exists in the minds of the willfully ignorant. Was Darwin an "evolutionary creationist"? He wrote the following:
There is grandeur in this view of life, with its several powers, having been originally breathed by the Creator into a few forms or into one; and that, whilst this planet has gone circling on according to the fixed law of gravity, from so simple a beginning endless forms most beautiful and most wonderful have been, and are being evolved.- Charles Darwin in “The Origin of Species by means of Natural Selection” last chapter, last sentence (bold added)
Joseph
April 27, 2009
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derwood, You are clue-less. Mutations are allowed to accumulate via selection- many types of selection. Next you would be testing YOUR sode's claims by figuring out how far something can be reduced. It is YOUR position that says living organisms and their parts can be reduced to matter, energy, chance and necessity. That you can't even understand that simple fact demonstrates you are well beyond reasoniung with.Joseph
April 27, 2009
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gpuccio @110
And, as has been commented upon repeatedly over the years, the probabilities of specific biological structures emerging absent design are not in fact calculable for the purposes of the design inference, and indeed NO calculations have EVER been offered by advocates of ID establishing the probability of specific biological structures arising by natural means, thereby demonstrating an instance of design.
That’s simply not true. We have done that many times.
I'm afraid you're overstating the case here. To the best of my knowledge, and I have searched, there are no calculations of CSI or other probabilities for organic constructs that take into account known evolutionary mechanisms. The only calculations I've found are equivalent to computing 2 to the power of however many bits are assumed to be required to define the artifact in question. Such calculations ignore so much of modern biology as to be useless. Are you aware of any papers that rigorously define CSI and use it to calculate a reproducible value for something like a real world bacterial flagellum? JJJayM
April 27, 2009
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Experience. That is we have experience with designers that do NOT design junk into their functioning designs- especially designs that require coding. How many successful computer programs contain lines “junk” code?
Yes - the experience of reading papers published by ‘darwinists’decades ago then hoping nobody else will know about them as they make ‘predictions.’
No, the experience I was talking about. Ya see Darwinists STILL think that most of the genomes are "junk".
Who cares about computer programs, genomes operate somewhat differently.
They are both codes- one for a computer and one genetic.Joseph
April 27, 2009
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So, what is the ID hypothesis for the appearance of the bacterial flagellum? What is the ID explanation for as to why there is more than one kind of flagellum in bacteria? What is the ID explanation for as to why not all bacteria have flagella?derwood
April 27, 2009
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Joseph:
Ya see according to the theory ALL mutations are mistakes.
'Mistakes' followed by selection, if adaptive or detrimental. So, whose cyt c gene has more miostakes, our's or a tuna's?
And also according to the ntheory the accumulation of those mistakes is what formed the diversity of life.
Along with selection and some other stuff.
Your position doesn’t have any analogies and it doesn’t have any evidence that the proposed mechanisms can do what you claim they did.
Actually, we use the language and the computer analogies, too, when instructing freshman/sophomore students. But we tend to understand the limitations of analogies and use them in their intended way. We have lots of evidence that mutations occur and did occur (to include duplications, etc.) and there is some evidence that such mutations confer adaptive traits. Not the whole story, of cours,e but then it seems more substantial than contrived mathematical arguments.
I would test the premise by figuring out if it was reducible to matter, energy, chance and necessity. I said that because it is YOUR position which should be doing such a thing.
Why should we be testing YOUR side's claims? In science, the one making the claim (the hypothesis, etc.) is typically the one that does such things. Odd how IDCs think that their 'opponants' should be doing their work for them.
Ya see if something is so reducible then the design inference is unwarranted.
And how would one go about such testing? Which is what I asked - if you cannot even explain how such tests are to be done, isn't it a bit odd to expect us to do them?derwood
April 27, 2009
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Joseph:
derwood, If it were so widely “known” that “junk” DNA really wasn’t, then why have evolutionists continued to push that premise?
Perhaps the same reason that ID advocates and creationists do - to make a name for themselvesd when they discovera new function? Difference being, of course, it is not actually IDcreationists doing any of the discovery. Of course, claiming that 'evolutionists' push it is a bit overly broad and it is an unfortuantely case of wanting there to be a universal in all this, and there is not. It is true that some noncoding DNA has a function. It is also true that some does not, for how could you remove nearly 3 million bps form a mouse genome and have the mouse suffer no ill effects were it all functional and thus, via implication, necessary? If all junk DNA uis functional, then its function does not seem to depend on the specific sequence nor the amount. How many computer programs can run with varying amounts of code and in fact large chunks of code missing? Not too many, I suspect. The problem then would be the computer analogy, not a problem with evolutonary genetics.
I would say that they thought “OK some of this is used, but the rest is real junk.”
So would I.
The evolutionary scenario does NOT have ANY explanation for the regulatory sequences.
Does the ID creationism scenario have an answer as to why they claim that ID creationists predicted function in junk DNA when it was evolutionists that dioscovered it decades before they made their 'predicitons'?derwood
April 27, 2009
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Why does ID predict little or no “junk” DNA? Experience.
Yes - the experience of reading papers published by 'darwinists'decades ago then hoping nobody else will know about them as they make 'predictions.' Who cares about computer programs, genomes operate somewhat differently. Seems a zoology student might understand that.derwood
April 27, 2009
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Why does ID predict little or no "junk" DNA? Experience. That is we have experience with designers that do NOT design junk into their functioning designs- especially designs that require coding. How many successful computer programs contain lines "junk" code?Joseph
April 27, 2009
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gpuccio (#100):
However, design detection “is” based on functional specification. That’s why it is perfectly natural to expect function in design, even if in some cases we could not recognize the function because we could not understand the designer’s purposes. So, I maintain that even in absence of clues about the general purposes of the designer, in a set of information like the human genome, where 1.5% has been shown to be perfectly functional, if we infer design for the whole set it is perfectly natural to expect that function will be very likely discovered also for much or all of the rest.
I might be misunderstanding you here, but are you saying that since some of the DNA is functional, we somehow assume that the rest of it is and therefore ID predicts that most DNA will have function. Sounds a tad circular to me. I agree that ID is based on the detection of things that have functional specification. However, given that there is no known function for all DNA, it is not natural to expect to find function either (not to me - and I am intelligent and I sometimes design things). Unless, of course, you for some reason assume that the desinger wanted/could ensure that all DNA had funtion. Perhaps you expect the designer to think like most humans do?Hoki
April 26, 2009
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Diffaxial et al: Guys, it's very late for me, and I will be away for a couple of days. I hope I can catch up as soon as I am back. For the moment, just a few very brief comments to Diffaxial's detailed #106: 1) I understood what you meant for "weak" and "strong", but I have no room for "weak" ID. When I say: "If you knew ID, you would know that the theory infers design only if the observed information is beyond the range of what mutation and selection can accomplish." I am just referring to ID methodology, which uses complexity as a tool to avoid false positives due to random effects. That has nothing to do with any "weak" conception of ID. 2) You say: "Then it is a limit inherent in the essence of the design inference in ID" That's correct. But then you say: "Worse, by designating that threshold in light of the putative failures of a competing theory (as you did above), that threshold is shown not to be a necessary entailment of a theory of design, but to arise from other considerations in an ad hoc manner. " That's completely wrong. The threshold is designate to avoid false positive due to randomness, not in light of a competitive theory. Indeed, the concepts of design detection were not created by ID, and apply, as you know, to many other fields. Avoiding false positives due to randomness or to necessity mechanisms is an essential requirement of scientific design detection, and is not done "in light of a competing theory". It is true, however, that as the main (and only) competing theory largely uses randomness as an engine of variation, it is directly falsified by the ID arguments. But that does not mean that the arguments themselves are designated for it. The arguments obey the intrinsic methodology of science. 3) You say: "And, as has been commented upon repeatedly over the years, the probabilities of specific biological structures emerging absent design are not in fact calculable for the purposes of the design inference, and indeed NO calculations have EVER been offered by advocates of ID establishing the probability of specific biological structures arising by natural means, thereby demonstrating an instance of design." That's simply not true. We have done that many times. I was recently commenting exactly on that in the thread "Extra Characters to the Biological Code". Therefore, I see no "embarrassing fact". 4) You say: "I disagree. Because both theories can be wrong, rejection of the alternative doesn’t comprise a test of ID. It would certainly improve its prospects - but it would still fall to ID to make positive predictions that arise from the entailments of a “strong” ID, such that failure to observe those predicted entailments places ID at risk of disconfirmation. Until then, ID remains a conjecture, even in the face of the ardently wished for complete collapse of current evolutionary theory." I don't understand. A moment you seem to admit that my strong ID makes predictions, another moment you deny it. I stick to the prediction I made about informational saltations. And, in classical hypothesis testing, rejection of the null hypothesis does not comprise a test of the alternative hypothesis, but the alternative hypothesis can be affirmed if it is the "best explanation". And, as for me, the "collapse of current evolutionary theory" is not "ardently wished for": it is a fact. 5) You say: "Due to ID’s inherent inability to guide empirical research, it fails to demonstrate scientific superiority over no theory at all, much less over the dominant paradigm, which provides a fertile framework for empirical research." That would be too long. I simply believe that ID could very well guide empirical research, if it were accepted, and that its superiority over the dominant paradigm is absolutely obvious. 6) You say: "Being the default isn’t enough." I am rather perplexed by that. Has science become so strange that being the default (and only) explanation to understand what we observe does not count? 7) You say: "In my opinion it is an explanation that doesn’t explain, as it offers no hooks for the incremental acquisition of empirical knowledge. Absent that, it is really just a conjecture." Again, that's only your opinion. I respect it, and disagree. 8) You say: "With all due respect, you have little grasp of the basics of scientific methodology. Facts aren’t lying around to be passively collected and later assessed for significance, as much as ID advocates would like that to be the case (so they can claim that “reinterpreting” others empirical data is “doing science”). Theory and observation are in constant dialog, with theory informing us where to turn our observational spades (and specifying what should be found there), and observation serving as tests of theory." With all due respect, it's you that IMO have a rather trivial view of science. It's true that "theory and observation are in constant dialog", and ID is trying to take part to that dialog, and many are trying to make that impossible. But if you really believe that observations merely serve as tests of existing theories, I am afraid you have a really strange conception of science and knowledge. So, I state again with all my strength and conviction what I have already stated, as you phrased it: a) Facts are absolutely lying around to be collected and later assessed for significance. That's how science has always worked. Observation of facts, "any facts", is the first step of the scientific method. b) Reinterpreting others' empirical data absolutely is “doing science”. It is not the only way to do science (collecting data and interpreting one's own data is certainly science too). But reinterpreting others' data is absolutely science, and a very essential part of it. 9) For all these reasons, I maintain that I have answered Reciprocating_Bill’s question. But it's fine that you don't agree. I'll be back as soon as possible. I would just like to add that I have really appreciated your detailed contributions to this discussion.gpuccio
April 26, 2009
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derwood, If it were so widely "known" that "junk" DNA really wasn't, then why have evolutionists continued to push that premise? I would say that they thought "OK some of this is used, but the rest is real junk." The evolutionary scenario does NOT have ANY explanation for the regulatory sequences.Joseph
April 26, 2009
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Diffaxial YOU do not understand scientific methodology and that is evinced by your nonsensical "predictions". As if the ToE would be disconfirmed if humans had working copies of the genes for vC. And BTW if there are two options and one is proven false, what is left?Joseph
April 26, 2009
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derwood, the theory of evolution is based on the accumulation of genetic acidents. Ya see according to the theory ALL mutations are mistakes. And also according to the ntheory the accumulation of those mistakes is what formed the diversity of life. Your position doesn't have any analogies and it doesn't have any evidence that the proposed mechanisms can do what you claim they did. I would test the premise by figuring out if it was reducible to matter, energy, chance and necessity. I said that because it is YOUR position which should be doing such a thing. Ya see if something is so reducible then the design inference is unwarranted.Joseph
April 26, 2009
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gpuccio @ at 92:
I don’t understand whta you mean. First of all, I don’t understand what you mean with “weak ID”. The ID we practice here is certainly strong.
I don't intend "weak" as a pejorative relative to strong. I model the use of those terms after the "weak" versus "strong" anthropic principles, and similarly "weak" versus "strong" claims of emergence, etc. It refers to a distinction you appeared to draw in one of your earlier posts. Whether you intended it or not, I distinguish the claims as follows: "Weak ID" is the fairly limited claim that design detection is possible. Weak ID refrains from making further assertions about design and certainly the designer. Therefore no further testable assertion arise from that sort of ID. "Strong ID" makes claims about the design and the designer. You appeared to make a claim consistent with "strong" ID when you stated,
If design is true...we will repeatedly observe “saltations” corresponding to a sudden increse in information in the emergent protein, without any possible selectable intermediate form...
But then appeared to retreat to weak ID with,
If you knew ID, you would know that the theory infers design only if the observed information is beyond the range of what mutation and selection can accomplish.
That strikes me as a "weak" claim. But perhaps I misread what you intended by that.
That clarified, the fact tha “ID can only detect design when it rises above a certain threshold” is not a limit of my proposed method: it isn the essence itself of the design inference in ID. To be more clear, ID has never stated that “all” design is detectable. ID states that design is detectable only if it rises above some threshold of complexity. That is ID theory. Anything else is not ID.
Then it is a limit inherent in the essence of the design inference in ID. Worse, by designating that threshold in light of the putative failures of a competing theory (as you did above), that threshold is shown not to be a necessary entailment of a theory of design, but to arise from other considerations in an ad hoc manner. And, as has been commented upon repeatedly over the years, the probabilities of specific biological structures emerging absent design are not in fact calculable for the purposes of the design inference, and indeed NO calculations have EVER been offered by advocates of ID establishing the probability of specific biological structures arising by natural means, thereby demonstrating an instance of design. To be honest, it rather baffles me that ID adovocates continue to advance this argument in light of that embarrassing fact.
No. You are wrong. The context here is of the kind of rejection of a null hypothesis in Fisherian Hypothesis testing. We reject the hypothesis that random variation can explain the information we onserve, even with the help NS.
I disagree. Because both theories can be wrong, rejection of the alternative doesn't comprise a test of ID. It would certainly improve its prospects - but it would still fall to ID to make positive predictions that arise from the entailments of a "strong" ID, such that failure to observe those predicted entailments places ID at risk of disconfirmation. Until then, ID remains a conjecture, even in the face of the ardently wished for complete collapse of current evolutionary theory.
In any case, it is the best explanation, which is all we need.
Due to ID's inherent inability to guide empirical research, it fails to demonstrate scientific superiority over no theory at all, much less over the dominant paradigm, which provides a fertile framework for empirical research.
Design “is” an alternative theory. It is indeed a very good alternative theory.
To support this theory somebody, SOMEBODY is going to have to demonstrate it in scientific action. Being the default isn't enough.
So what you are saying is that we need not consider an explanation which is the best explanation, the only explanation, and a natural and very old explanation, only because you don’t like the concept of a designer?
In my opinion it is an explanation that doesn't explain, as it offers no hooks for the incremental acquisition of empirical knowledge. Absent that, it is really just a conjecture.
Finally, you continue to insist to mark research as “conducted from a framework”. I very strongly object to that. As I have said, research (collection of true facts) is not marked by the ideological framework of those whom conduct it. That would be very biased reasearch. You insist to confound reasearch (the gathering of facts) with intellectual elaboration of known facts (a theoretical activity). They are two different things.
With all due respect, you have little grasp of the basics of scientific methodology. Facts aren't lying around to be passively collected and later assessed for significance, as much as ID advocates would like that to be the case (so they can claim that "reinterpreting" others empirical data is "doing science"). Theory and observation are in constant dialog, with theory informing us where to turn our observational spades (and specifying what should be found there), and observation serving as tests of theory. Until you get that, you're not going to get Reciprocating_Bill's question.Diffaxial
April 26, 2009
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Trying to answer that will demonstrate just how vague and useless the “theory” is.
So, what is the ID hypothesis for the appearance of the bacterial flagellum? What is the ID explanation for as to why there is more than one kind of flagellum in bacteria? What is the ID explanation for as to why not all bacteria have flagella?derwood
April 26, 2009
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So, shall I assume that nobody is interested in discussing the claims made in the OP re: ID advocates 'predicting' function in junkDNA decades after such function had already been discovered?derwood
April 26, 2009
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derwood: Arguments via personal incredulity are not very effective. I noticed you didn’t answer the question.
There was little that required answering. It was essentially a strawman question. You mentioned an 'accumulation of accidents.' That is akin to the old 'when are going to stop beating your wife' sort of scenarios. Whose cytochrome c gene contains more 'accidents' - humans or tuna's?
It would appear that there is sufficient evidence to indicate the “the” bacterial flagellum arose via the cooption of parts of other systems, but I do not consider myself well versed on the subject. Do you even realize what that would involve?
Yes, but perhaps with your background as a research scientist and nearly a marine biologist/zoologist, you might take the time to explain it to me to make sure we are on the same page?
Do you also realize that two specified mutations appears to beyond the reach of your processes?
Yes, I am aware of Seelke's "experiments," but I am unaware of any requirement in evolution for two pre-specified mutations to occur such that a desired outcome is produced. Can you point to a non-ID source in which this is indicated to be the case?
How do you propose we test the hypothesis that “the” bacterial flagellum was designed by a non-natural intelligence? Via analogy? Analogies are not arguments or evidence. 1- YOU don’t think analogies are not good arguments because YOUR position doesn’t have any.
No, analogies are not good arguments because analogies are nto arguments. They are tools employed to make concepts and issues easier for the uninitiated to understand. My side does not seem to require the use of analogies AS ARGUMENTS. My side appears to use them in the correct fashion. My side appears able to produce evidence.
2- I would test the premise by figuring out if it was reducible to matter, energy, chance and necessity.
And how would you do that? What assumptions go into such a 'test,' and what are their validity? One could assume that mutations occur and can be passed on. This assumption is valid because it can be demonstrated. In terms of ID, the ONLY demonstration is analogy to human activity, and unless your position is that humans designed the bacterial flagellum, I really cannot see what the assumptions are and how they are valid.
For example give a bacteria population the genes- genes only- required for a flagellum and see if the rest can come about- the rest being binding sites, regulators, chaperones- all the required meta-information.
So, if we provide a human with steel, concrete, and rivets and we come back 2 weeks later and do not see the bridge we had wanted them to build, we could conclude that humans cannot build bridges?derwood
April 26, 2009
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Alan, If reality is scurrilous then so be it. I just call 'em as I see 'em. And there isn't anything to fear, just more wasted energy.Joseph
April 26, 2009
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Diffaxial @17 summed up the problems with this FAQ answer, and his points have yet to be answered.
This FAQ should be much stronger. . . . Eventually his question boiled down to this:
Would you please complete the following? If design is true then we should observe ________. If we don’t observe _______ our theory is at risk of disconfirmation.
There were a lot of responses but no good reply, IMHO. Ironically, on a thread in which Barry had announced and clarified UD’s new moderation policy, Reciprocating_Bill was banned for reasons that explicitly and directly contradicted that newly articulated policy - leaving the inescapable impression that he was really banned for asking an important question for which no one here has a good answer. That is how it looked to me.
That's how it appeared to me, as well.
But the question itself was well-taken, and must be addressed squarely if you want to establish ID’s credibility as a science. If you want your FAQ to be truly convincing, it should specify a number of clear and unequivocal responses to this challenge.
I concur. In fact, this FAQ answer would be far stronger if it took the form of the statement reposted by Diffaxial. Frankly, I don't think we can yet write such a statement. At its current level of maturity, ID is an exciting hypothesis, not a full scientific theory. Personally, I believe that the work of Dr. Behe and others in finding the limits to evolutionary mechanisms is likely to be the most direct route to a scientific theory of intelligent design, but we're not there yet. And that's okay! Let's be open and honest about both our successes and our current limitations. That way, when we do come to the table with a positive, predictive, testable, falsifiable scientific theory, we'll have the credibility we need to have it fairly considered. JJJayM
April 26, 2009
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mauka:
Then you presumably agree with the following statement: The theory of ID proper does not predict that junk DNA will be functional.
Please, let's not play word games. We have better things to do. My position is simple. ID proper centers on design detection. Design detection, in biological structures, is largely based on functional specification (FSCI). Design detection in itself does not say much on the designer or his purposes. Other simple approacges (for instance, an analysis of the design) can probably do much more in that field. However, design detection "is" based on functional specification. That's why it is perfectly natural to expect function in design, even if in some cases we could not recognize the function because we could not understand the designer's purposes. So, I maintain that even in absence of clues about the general purposes of the designer, in a set of information like the human genome, where 1.5% has been shown to be perfectly functional, if we infer design for the whole set it is perfectly natural to expect that function will be very likely discovered also for much or all of the rest.gpuccio
April 26, 2009
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Alan Fox: More than one time I have asked that Zachriel be allowed to post here. I do it again now. I miss him.gpuccio
April 26, 2009
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mauka (#65):
We’re not micropoofers, because nothing supernatural has to happen for us to compose a comment. No poofs required. Your Designer, on the other hand, has to poof his edits into the biosphere — unless you are going to claim that your designer isn’t God, but rather some physical being, a genetic leprechaun who scampers around and alters genomes when we aren’t looking.
I don't agree. That is just your view of reality, a philosophical take that I can respect, but which I would never share. You say that "nothing supernatural has to happen for us to compose a comment". I don't like the word "supernatural", and try never to use it (I have debated that many times in previous threads). So, let's say that for me the observed phenomenon oh how our consciousness daily interacts with our body and with the material world is no more "natural" and no less "mysterious" then the inferred agency of a designer, maybe a god, on the biological world. For me, in both cases a consciousness interferes and interacts with a material reality. Poofs in both cases, or no poof at all. You probably take as a given that human consciousness is the product of the activity of the human brain. IOW, you probably believe in strong AI. I don't. We are entitled to our opinions, but I would like to remark that they are opinions, or at best philosophical convictions. So, from my point of view, poofs are everywhere.
P.S. Now that ‘poof’, ‘micropoof’ and ‘macropoof’ are becoming part of the vocabulary here, do you think Barry regrets bringing up poofs in the first place?
I don't think so. It's such a pretty term! My compliments, Barry.gpuccio
April 26, 2009
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He is well-known and that is why he now relies on various sock-puppets.
That's scurrilous, even by your standards, Joe. Zachriel has never posted except under that handle. He has attempted to post here using his registration details but his account is non-functional. If his ability to represent ideas is so poor, you have nothing to fear.Alan Fox
April 26, 2009
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Alan, RE Zachriel That very thing has been demonstrated on my blog as well as other venues. He is well-known and that is why he now relies on various sock-puppets. He probably even uses a program to slightly alter his chosen words so that he can escape detection.Joseph
April 26, 2009
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Adel (70 and 71):
Vague = lacking in detail. Just saying that you expect complexity is not dispositive because it doesn’t uniquely define what you expect.
I thought you had already clear the meaning of complexity in the ID context. We ave even debating the Durston paper... I cannot define the same things each time.
This the logical fallacy of false disjunction: Either A or B Not A Therefore B See Diffaxial [19]:
Not again, please... I think we had already clarified that tis is not a logical point. And so there is no logical fallacy. I had clarified that even to Diffaxial: "Yes, it does amount to support for ID. Again, you forget that we are talking empirical science here, and not logical demonstrations. I am really surprised of how often I have to repeat this simple epistemological concept, which should be obvious to anybody who deals with empirical science." It is not: Either A or B Not A Therefore B (logical disjunction) but rather: We have to explain X. At present, we have only two theories, A and B. A does not work. B works. At present, B is the best explanation (always waiting for any possible C) This is empirical reasoning.
Why must design products be complex? In some quarters, the hallmark of good design is simplicity.
Who says that design products must be complex? ID says that only complex design can be inferred. I think that is a completely different statement. A simple design can be appreciated as design if we have direct observation of the designer or the process of design. But when we don't have those things, we have to infer design, and the design inference can be made only for complex design. Is that clear?gpuccio
April 26, 2009
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derwood:
Arguments via personal incredulity are not very effective.
I noticed you didn't answer the question.
It would appear that there is sufficient evidence to indicate the “the” bacterial flagellum arose via the cooption of parts of other systems, but I do not consider myself well versed on the subject.
Do you even realize what that would involve? Do you also realize that two specified mutations appears to beyond the reach of your processes?
How do you propose we test the hypothesis that “the” bacterial flagellum was designed by a non-natural intelligence? Via analogy? Analogies are not arguments or evidence.
1- YOU don't think analogies are not good arguments because YOUR position doesn't have any. 2- I would test the premise by figuring out if it was reducible to matter, energy, chance and necessity. For example give a bacteria population the genes- genes only- required for a flagellum and see if the rest can come about- the rest being binding sites, regulators, chaperones- all the required meta-information.Joseph
April 26, 2009
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Diffaxial, You are right as not one of your alleged "predictions" is borne from random variation nor natural selection. Not one. And if we didn't observe any of that the ToE would be going strong. And as I said both IC and CSI are signs of design and to refute that all one has to do is demonstrate that IC and CSI can arise without agency involvement- ie nature, operating freely.
Oops - another “test” that revolves around the lack of success of predictions arising from an alternative theory, which asserts that complex structures meeting the definition of ID arise by means of scaffolding, exaptation, etc.
Actually it is a test that has withstood the tests of time. That is EVERY time we have observed CSI and/ or IC and KNEW the cause it has ALWAYS been via agency involvement. ALWAYS. But anyways there isn't any chronological order of fossils. The VAST majority of fossils are of marine inverts. And in that vast majority, ie >95%, there isn't any indication of universal common descent.Joseph
April 26, 2009
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Diffaxial (#69): I appreciate your interesting contributions, but I have to disagree on many points. 1) You say:
But arguing that “ID can only detect design when it rises above a certain threshold” isn’t an entailment of your theory. It is a limitation of your proposed method.
I don't understand whta you mean. First of all, I don't understand what you mean with "weak ID". The ID we practice here is certainly strong. It certainly makes "positive assertions about design". I am not interested in your "weak ID" (merely asserting the possibility of design detection), and so I can't see how I could be equivocatiiong on it. To be cler: my ID is strong. It makes positive assertions about design. Indeed, it gives quantitative methods to infer it. So is the ID of all IDists I know of. That clarified, the fact tha “ID can only detect design when it rises above a certain threshold” is not a limit of my proposed method: it isn the essence itself of the design inference in ID. To be more clear, ID has never stated that "all" design is detectable. ID states that design is detectable only if it rises above some threshold of complexity. That is ID theory. Anything else is not ID. Therefore, I can't understand your problems with my statement. Saltationism is not "a necessary posit of my version of strong ID". Saltationism, in the sense that I have clarified, is a necessary posit for ID detection: IOW, we have to observe the emergence of informational content which cannot be explained by randomness and/or necessity, to infer design, and that is possible only if the emergent information is well above a very strict threshold of complexity. That is certainly a saltation in information content. So, I do maintain that my statement satisfies perfectly Reciprocating_Bill’s original challenge. 2) You say:
The failure of predictions arising from an alternative theory won’t do, because that result provides no information with bearing upon the question of whether ID is also wrong.
No. You are wrong. The context here is of the kind of rejection of a null hypothesis in Fisherian Hypothesis testing. We reject the hypothesis that random variation can explain the information we onserve, even with the help NS. Once we reject that, the field is open to any alternative theory which can explain what we observe. Design is on. Is it better than the others? Well, to answer that I would have to know the others. At present, my opinion is that design is the "only" alternative theory. In any case, it is the best explanation, which is all we need. As I said before, if you have a better alternative theory, please provede it, and we will compare that theory with design. But indeed, what you seem not to understand, is that once we falsify the darwinian theory, we do need an alternative theory. Why? Because biological information is there, and needs to be explained. Design "is" an alternative theory. It is indeed a very good alternative theory. So good that for centuries living beings have been considered as designed. So good that Dawkins himself admits that biological realities appear as designed. So what you are saying is that we need not consider an explanation which is the best explanation, the only explanation, and a natural and very old explanation, only because you don't like the concept of a designer? I could say just the same that I don't like the concept of RV and NS... But no, I have shown that RV and NS don't work, I have not just argued that "other theories could work", or that "both theories could be wrong". So, please wake up. Wec arec in the real world here. We are in the field of empirical science. Questions require possible answers. Credible answers. ID is a good answer, believe it or not. Darwinian theory isn't. But if you prefer to stick to the "no theory" position out of purely dogmatic reasons, well you are entitled to that. 3) Finally, you continue to insist to mark research as "conducted from a framework". I very strongly object to that. As I have said, research (collection of true facts) is not marked by the ideological framework of those whom conduct it. That would be very biased reasearch. You insist to confound reasearch (the gathering of facts) with intellectual elaboration of known facts (a theoretical activity). They are two different things. The fact that most research today is conducted by people who accept the framework of darwinian theory has many obvious explanations, which I will not even try to debate here. But that fact does not change the subsstance of the results. The results are of all and for all.gpuccio
April 26, 2009
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