Uncommon Descent Serving The Intelligent Design Community

HeKS continues to suggest a way forward on the KS “bomb” argument

Categories
Atheism
Design inference
Intelligent Design
rhetoric
Tree of life
Share
Facebook
Twitter/X
LinkedIn
Flipboard
Print
Email

Last week, one of my comments relating to the KS “bomb” argument was made the subject of an OP, which can be found here.

In that comment, I had offered a few preliminary thoughts on Keith’s argument (originally found here, and summarized by him here) and asked a few questions to better understand the assumptions informing his argument. Unfortunately, the issues raised in my OP comment, as far I can tell, were never actually addressed. Instead, the ‘responses’ in the ensuing conversation revolved almost entirely around what the participating ID proponents considered obviously false analogies, which invoked “Planetary Angels”, “Rain Fairies”, “Salt Leprechauns”, and “Toilet Whales”.

Regarding these analogies, Keith, Zachriel, and other ID opponents, seemed to be arguing as though ID claims a designing agent is necessary to explain the shape/pattern of the ‘Objective Nested Hierarchy’ (ONH) into which living organisms are claimed to fall, when the production of  an ONH can be explained by a natural, unguided process of branching descent.  Thus, they claimed, there is no difference between the ID position and one that claims planets are moving in elliptical orbits because angels are choosing to push them around in such orbits, or one that claims salt falls from a salt shaker into a pile on the table because the falling salt is being guided by invisible leprechauns who like making salt piles. The idea here is that in each case we have some superfluous explanatory entity being posited to directly guide some process that looks exactly like it is not being guided, does not need to be guided, and is explained perfectly well by law-based processes.

During the course of the thread it was pointed out to them innumerable times that, even granting the existence of an ONH for life, ID does not and would not cite the shape or production of such an ONH as being an example of something that requires an explanation by reference to an intelligent cause. Rather, in identifying the need for an intelligent cause to explain certain aspects of biology, ID points to the evident infusion of significant amounts of biological information into the world of life, as well as the novel introduction of complex, functionally-specified biological systems and molecular machines. In other words, for its evidence, ID points to aspects of life that do not seem obviously explicable by reference to purely natural processes, whether stochastic or law-based, but that do contain hallmarks that we habitually and uniquely associate with conscious, intelligent, intentional activity. In yet other words, the previously mentioned analogies to “Planetary Angels” and “Salt Leprechauns” are horribly and obviously misguided and entirely off the mark.

Unfortunately, the distinction never seemed to get through to them. And even more unfortunately, the thread was eventually derailed and shut down while a number of conversations were still in progress. Aspects of the discussion, however, continued here.

In that new thread, the Rain Fairies, the Salt Leprechauns, and their most recent common ancestor, the Plantary Angels, have again reared their head, being invoked in response to the objection from ID proponents to the description of microevolution as being “unguided”. The point of the ID proponents in this case relates quite closely to one of the claims in Keith’s so-called “bomb” argument, with which I myself took issue in the previously mentioned OP. In Keith’s summary of his argument, he says that even “the most rabid IDer” admits that “unguided evolution” exists, with the ultimate intention of extrapolating what ID proponents admit happens into what they say does not happen.

Now, when Keith refers to “unguided evolution” here, he is referring to the relatively minor microevolutionary changes that take place within a population, but on the view of ID proponents, these are not the kind of phenomena that could, even in principle, be extrapolated to account for the macroevolutionary innovations that would be necessary to account for the full content of the alleged ONH “Tree of Life”. And in taking issue with the characterization of microevolution as “unguided”, the ID proponent is taking issue with the fact that a phrase that might be uncontroversially applied to a subset of these phenomena is, within the context of Keith’s argument, being over-generalized in a way that implicitly suggests an acceptance by ID proponents of propositions they do not actually accept, and so is a case of illegitimately stealing ground en route to the argument’s conclusion.

In addition to my comments in the original OP, I expanded on them somewhat in a recent comment, which I’ll duplicate here to fill out the remainder of this post and hopefully spur further discussion.

From here:

Now, when it comes to this business of proving that microevolution is unguided, I think there needs to be an understanding of what it would even mean to suggest that it is “guided”. I’m reasonably certain that the majority of people who would dispute claims that microevolution is unguided do not mean that a designer is actively, in the moment, effecting a specific microevolutionary change. Nor would they dispute that random mutations happen. Rather, they would likely dispute that all mutations are random. And they would also likely argue (as I did in the previous thread) that the constrained allowance for – and even rapid increased initiation of – mutations and general genetic and epigenetic changes are a purposeful aspect of the design of organisms to allow for diversification and adaptation (which is sometimes very rapid). If the random variation or shuffling is too large, however, it kills the organism, makes it sterile, or at the very least reduces its reproductive potential, decreasing the chances that the significant defect will be passed on or largely affect subsequent generations of a population.

In other words, the argument is not that random mutations allowing microevolution look unguided but are actually being directly manipulated by some designer. Rather, the argument is that 1) the RM/NS mechanism is a constrained feature of organismal design, and that the Neo-Darwinists are looking at a design feature of a system that makes use of randomization and illegitimately extrapolating it to explain the entire system itself; and 2) that not all mutations/changes are random at all, but some are internally directed in a purposeful manner for the benefit of the organism.

So, it seems to me that, from an ID perspective, saying something like, ‘even IDists admit unguided evolution exists’, is either A) a case of making a trivial claim that cannot be legitimately extrapolated from the kinds of microevolutionary changes that are seen (overwhelmingly degrading genetic information and/or narrowing genetic variability; breaking or blunting existing biological function for a net fitness gain) to the kinds of macroevolutionary innovations that are theorized (the introduction of complex, functionally-specified systems and molecular machines), or B) a case of making an unwarranted and unsubstantiated claim that the system that allows for and makes use of the RM/NS mechanism for the benefit and diversification of the organism does so by fluke, in a way that is fully unconstrained, and is itself undesigned; or C) both.

Of course, as I’ve said numerous times before, I think this is only one of many issues with Keith’s argument, but it has become quite clear that it is difficult to get even just one criticism seriously addressed in a comment thread, so it would likely be useless to draw in any others at this point. I’m hoping that the nonsensical false analogies about Rain Fairies and Planetary Angels can be left to the side to allow for some kind of substantive discussion of the issues, but I’ve been given little reason to suspect that my hope is grounded.

 

Comments
Pachyaena:
The thing is, ID proponents are creationists. Dishonest ones, and that’s why they argue the way they do. They will not accept your points because they have an entrenched belief in who ‘the designer’ (AKA their chosen God) is and what he can and did/does do, and why.
It only takes a belief in sound logic to reject keiths' points. That the products of ultimately random forces should have the ability to reason with sound logic? Well, believing that might take some faith.Phinehas
December 1, 2014
December
12
Dec
1
01
2014
10:02 AM
10
10
02
AM
PDT
5for:
To design much of the weather we see still outstrips our capabilities by quite a bit. To design such would take someone highly educated, intelligent, or both.
Setting aside HeKS' prescience for a moment, yes. If, for the sake of argument, we were to assume that weather had been designed, we might be able to discern things about such a designer's capabilities, though, off the top of my head, I'd likely conclude more about power than intelligence in that particular case. And so?Phinehas
December 1, 2014
December
12
Dec
1
01
2014
09:51 AM
9
09
51
AM
PDT
Keiths' argument rests on a number of shaky foundations. One of these shaky foundations is that the designer's choices should be treated like a trillion-sided die. If this foundation fails, then keiths' argument fails. If this foundation is not supported, then keiths' argument is not supported. This is an assertion and an assumption that has not been adequately supported. It is not the responsibility of critics to demonstrate that the designer doesn't act like a trillion-sided die. Rather, it is keiths' responsibility to demonstrate that the designer must act like a trillion sided die. For if the designer does not act like a trillion sided die, then keiths has no argument. Or, if it is likely that the designer does not act like a trillion sided die, then it is likely that keiths does not have an argument. keiths argues: The designer could have chosen any of a number of ways to instantiate life, so it is unlikely that the designer would have chosen an ONH. I argue: The designer could make choices according to any of a number of methods, so it is unlikely that the designer would choose as if the designer were a trillion-sided die. Please demonstrate why anything that supports keiths' argument doesn't also support my argument. Or that anything that undermines my argument doesn't also undermine keiths' argument. Absent such demonstrations, my argument stands. (Here, I am echoing keiths' reliance on shifting the burden of proof. If keiths will actually embrace the burden of supporting his own argument, I'll retract this, since it won't be necessary.) So, at best, it appears that it is highly unlikely that keiths' argument is valid, since it rests on an assumption that is highly unlikely to be true.Phinehas
December 1, 2014
December
12
Dec
1
01
2014
09:01 AM
9
09
01
AM
PDT
Keith @571: This is a pristine example of Keith's faulty logic and apparent inability to understand an argument. He apparently thinks my statement: "Not knowing that it won’t be flat isn’t enough." somehow contradicts the following statement: "Where did I say that the PoI should only be applied in situations where we know that the probability distribution is flat?" Just because a flat distribution may be one of the possibilities doesn't mean you are entitled to use the PoI. That's not enough. You must have no reason to think that any of the possibilities outweigh any other. That doesn't mean you know it's a flat probability distribution, but that you have no valid reason to think it wouldn't be flat. Of course we have good reason to believe it wouldn't be flat, unless Keith is going to argue that an intelligent designer's choices would likely be the same as a random distribution, which is nonsense. As in the other refutations, this is a sound, exhaustive refutation of one aspect of keith's argument. He has no right to employ the PoI because there is no reasonable expectation that any designer's choices would conform to a random distribution, and plenty of reason to believe they wouldn't.William J Murray
December 1, 2014
December
12
Dec
1
01
2014
05:50 AM
5
05
50
AM
PDT
Me_Think @579: None of that matters wrt the fact that we know it is unlikely for any designer to choose in a manner that conforms to a flat probability distribution.William J Murray
December 1, 2014
December
12
Dec
1
01
2014
05:28 AM
5
05
28
AM
PDT
HeKS, We seem to have some disagreement or misunderstanding.
HeKS #521: Equal probabilities assigned to all logically possible preferences do not signal indifference on the part of the agent in the sense of signaling that the agent does not have any preference.
Indifference (not have any preference) is assumed concurrent with assigning equal probabilities. In this case the agent’s indifference is assumed towards “all logically possible preferences”. In this case we are dealing with ‘meta-indifference’, IOW ‘indifference wrt preferences’ or ‘no preference wrt preferences’; this may be confusing :)
HeKS: It just means we have no way of knowing which of all logically possible preferences the agent happens to prefer.
I disagree. Without the assumption of indifference and absent knowledge, assigning equal probabilities has no warrant whatsoever - is hanging in midair. Assigning equal probabilities is not shorthand for "we don't know and we don't assume anything". By definition it must also include the assumption of indifference. There is simply no escape.Box
December 1, 2014
December
12
Dec
1
01
2014
05:13 AM
5
05
13
AM
PDT
keith, I have refuted your argument and your "rebuttal" was to misrepresent Darwin. You don't have any idea what a nested hierarchy entails. You don't have any idea what unguided evolution predicts and you have no idea what you are talking about.Joe
December 1, 2014
December
12
Dec
1
01
2014
04:35 AM
4
04
35
AM
PDT
keiths:
If you think there is a “refutation” of my argument that I have not already rebutted, then quote it.
HeKS:
Give me a break. That would involve me pointing to virtually everything I’ve written in the past two threads.
I figured you would try that. It's safer than pointing to something specific, isn't it?keith s
December 1, 2014
December
12
Dec
1
01
2014
02:21 AM
2
02
21
AM
PDT
Keith,
I’ve been rebutting supposed “refutations” of my argument right and left, in this thread and many others.
Hah. Yeah right. In over 15 years of online discussions I have never come across anyone who was so thoroughly non-responsive to counter-arguments. Most people I've debated who have had bad arguments have at least tried to come back with some kind of response that dealt directly with the criticisms put to them, however terrible their responses might have been. You are a completely different animal. You don't even try to honestly interact with the arguments I've put to you. All you've been doing is quoting snippets of my arguments then writing some words after them as though you're responding to my points. At best you've responding to your own misrepresentations of tiny portions of my arguments. Usually you just ignore everything.
Right now you, WJM, and Box are struggling to find a criticism that will stick, just like the other IDers before you.
Nope. I'm not struggling at all. Every criticism of your argument that I've made sticks. Your use of the PoI in this context is obviously foolish and I've pointed out at length how obviously misguided it is, along with so many other aspects of your argument. The fact that obvious points fail to "stick" to you is irrelevant, as is the fact that you choose to doggedly hold to obvious nonsense.
If you think there is a “refutation” of my argument that I have not already rebutted, then quote it.
Give me a break. That would involve me pointing to virtually everything I've written in the past two threads. Perhaps you expected me to be fooled into thinking you responded to my arguments because you clipped a few of my words, misrepresented what I had originally said, then made a lame response to that. More likely you expected other people to be fooled. Or perhaps you're so utterly oblivious that you don't even understand the arguments being put to you as has been suggested. That explanation is looking more and more likely every day.
(You still haven’t addressed your severe circularity problem, by the way.)
Don't worry. I'll get to your foolish misconstrual of the argument when I have time.HeKS
December 1, 2014
December
12
Dec
1
01
2014
01:56 AM
1
01
56
AM
PDT
WJM @ 531
Whether or not the agent actually reaches the goal doesn’t change the fact the agent will make choices weighted to acquire the goal. No matter how many “unknowns” you pile up about any designer, we know their choices will not conform to a flat probability distribution.
The more unknowns, the higher is the complexity. The designer has to search for his preferred method among the numerous methods available. What search is he going to use - random search, evolutionary search, hill climbing algorithm, Network neigbourhood, hyper-geometric search ? What is the probability that he is going to use any one of these search algorithm ?. If the methods available to designer are transient, then the search is constrained by time. The designer may not even be able to select his preferred method if it is transient. If you think the designer is intelligent, he may look for an optimum method instead of preferred method to reach his goal - which adds another layer of complexity - is he going to search for Global or Local optima? What does the solution landscape look like ? The optimization will depend on the landscape. So a lot depends on the 'unknowns.'Me_Think
December 1, 2014
December
12
Dec
1
01
2014
01:11 AM
1
01
11
AM
PDT
HeKS #564:
Keith insists we work within the bounds of his approach or else we’re dodging the issues, even though we’re saying that his approach is mistaken to begin with.
Comparing the predictions of competing hypotheses is standard scientific procedure. My argument does this for ID and UE. ID loses to UE by an overwhelming margin. You need a counterargument.keith s
December 1, 2014
December
12
Dec
1
01
2014
01:06 AM
1
01
06
AM
PDT
dgw:
In regards #561, one can simplify the problem still further by considering only two cases–either the universe and life is cheap to design/make or it is expensive (relative to some benefit).
What's your basis for neglecting the other cases?
If the former, then perhaps there are many universes–trillions of them even. One of them might have an ONH, just by accident.
Why would we happen to find ourselves in one with an accidental ONH? You don't think there's anything about intelligent life that requires an ONH, do you?
If the latter, then the Designer will apply great care in the preparation of his design. He will make sure it is a good design because of the cost involved. (A good design is one that is consistent with the intended purpose of the designer.)
But again, you don't know the Designer's goals. You don't know the Designer's capabilities. You don't know the Designer's resources or what he/she/it considers costly or cheap.
How do we choose between these two cases? I see a world of exquisite detail, fine tuning, and foresight.
Foresight, like the design of the recurrent laryngeal nerve?keith s
December 1, 2014
December
12
Dec
1
01
2014
12:46 AM
12
12
46
AM
PDT
Heks, Do you believe in the biblical god? Do you believe that the biblical god created this universe? Do you believe in the special creation of humans by the biblical god? Do you believe 'the fall' is the reason that "Things do break down."? Is there anything in/of the universe that is not designed-created or that is not dependent on or a product/result of (including indirectly) design-creation?Pachyaena
December 1, 2014
December
12
Dec
1
01
2014
12:41 AM
12
12
41
AM
PDT
HeKS #573, I've been rebutting supposed "refutations" of my argument right and left, in this thread and many others. Right now you, WJM, and Box are struggling to find a criticism that will stick, just like the other IDers before you. (You still haven't addressed your severe circularity problem, by the way.) If you think there is a "refutation" of my argument that I have not already rebutted, then quote it. I will either address it, or quote or link to where I have already addressed it. To defeat my argument, you need a refutation. Where is the refutation? If you actually believe that you have one, then present it.keith s
December 1, 2014
December
12
Dec
1
01
2014
12:35 AM
12
12
35
AM
PDT
In regards #561, one can simplify the problem still further by considering only two cases--either the universe and life is cheap to design/make or it is expensive (relative to some benefit). If the former, then perhaps there are many universes--trillions of them even. One of them might have an ONH, just by accident. If the latter, then the Designer will apply great care in the preparation of his design. He will make sure it is a good design because of the cost involved. (A good design is one that is consistent with the intended purpose of the designer.) How do we choose between these two cases? I see a world of exquisite detail, fine tuning, and foresight. Abstract forms like mathematics and logic transcend existence and provide categories for a Designer's choices. These observations match the latter case better than the former.dgw
November 30, 2014
November
11
Nov
30
30
2014
11:51 PM
11
11
51
PM
PDT
Keith, What you're failing to take into account is that, for us, the stakes are not high. You seem to have this delusion that you have us on the run, shaking in our boots, hiding under the tables. In reality, we're just sitting here shaking our heads at the sheer volume of false logic and inanity that accompanies your silly boasting. I'm not here because I need to prove to myself that your argument is silly. I've known it was silly since I first took the time to examine it. At first I stayed here because I thought there might be a chance to help you recognize where your argument was going wrong, but unlike your argument, you are utterly immune to criticism. At this point, I'm here only so that unbiased readers can see just how silly your argument is, how many examples of poor reasoning and unsubstantiated assumptions pour out of it at every point that it is prodded, and how studious you are in avoiding honest interaction with contrary arguments, but I think that goal has probably been achieved by this point (I'm certain you will have your cheerleaders in the bleachers, but I have no interest in them). I find it funny how every time someone points out that your argument is silly, misguided and fails you reply with something like: "People keep saying that, but nobody is able to disprove it." You don't seem to understand that you don't have to admit that your argument is silly, misguided, fails and has been disproved in order for all those things to be true of it. We know perfectly well you will never admit this under any circumstances and that you've completely insulated yourself from the possibility of disproof. Well, you're welcome to your bubble of defense mechanisms. You are clearly very reliant on this argument of yours and have a strong emotional need for it to be sound for pretty obvious reasons: for you, the stakes are high.HeKS
November 30, 2014
November
11
Nov
30
30
2014
11:43 PM
11
11
43
PM
PDT
William, Besides your logic gaffe, you're not facing up to the gravity of the situation. As I explained:
You also seem to think that if you can prevent me from using the PoI, that ID is somehow saved from my argument. It isn’t, not by a long shot. Suppose that your crackpot idea were actually correct, and that my use of the PoI was illegitimate in this case. We’ve already agreed that we don’t know who the actual designer is, or what his/her/its characteristics are. If you wished to forbid the use of the PoI, then we couldn’t assume any probability distribution. So we have two competing hypotheses. One of them, unguided evolution, predicts the ONH out of trillions of possibilities. This prediction is confirmed in spectacular fashion. Meanwhile the competing hypothesis, ID, doesn’t predict anything. You’ve ruled that out by forbidding the use of the PoI. Which hypothesis should we favor, the one that makes a spectacularly successful prediction, or the one that doesn’t? You don’t have to be a statistical genius to figure this one out.
As you can see, it's not enough to try to thwart my use of the PoI. You need to come up with your own justified probability distribution that will enable ID to match UE's spectacular predictive success. Good luck with that.keith s
November 30, 2014
November
11
Nov
30
30
2014
11:32 PM
11
11
32
PM
PDT
William #569:
Not knowing that it won’t be flat isn’t enough.
William's very next sentence:
Where did I say that the PoI should only be applied in situations where we know that the probability distribution is flat?
The logic is not strong in this one.keith s
November 30, 2014
November
11
Nov
30
30
2014
11:20 PM
11
11
20
PM
PDT
HeKS:
I’m having a hard time remembering why we’re doing this.
Here's a reminder:
Regarding the question of why my argument is getting so much attention here at UD, I think the answer is pretty obvious: the stakes are high. My argument shows that as a hypothesis, unguided evolution beats ID by a factor of trillions. If my argument is correct, then you cannot be a rational IDer. You must choose either rationality, or ID, but you cannot choose both. Every IDer reading this faces three possibilities: Either 1) someone finds a way to convincingly refute my argument, or 2) you choose to be an irrational IDer, or 3) you rationally abandon ID, perhaps hoping that someone will eventually refute my argument so that you can become an IDer again. The stakes are extremely high for IDers, so of course this is getting a lot of attention.
keith s
November 30, 2014
November
11
Nov
30
30
2014
11:07 PM
11
11
07
PM
PDT
Keith said:
First of all, we don’t know that the actual distribution won’t be flat. A flat distribution is one of many possibilities.
Not knowing that it won't be flat isn't enough.
Secondly, if you were correct that the PoI should only be applied in situations where we know that the probability distribution is flat, then there wouldn’t be any need for the PoI at all.
Where did I say that the PoI should only be applied in situations where we know that the probability distribution is flat?
So you, a random guy on the Internet, are presuming to tell statisticians that they cannot use the PoI in exactly the cases for which it is intended to be used and rationally should be used.
No, I'm asking you to support your assertion that the PoI is a standard statistical approach in cases like this and is used appropriately in your argument. This makes the second time that I've asked you to support an assertion you made and you've refused to do so and ridiculed me for simply asking you to support your own assertion. The rest of your post is nothing but reiteration of points/argument already long since addressed.William J Murray
November 30, 2014
November
11
Nov
30
30
2014
10:35 PM
10
10
35
PM
PDT
HeKS said:
I’m having a hard time remembering why we’re doing this.
Dismantling Keith's "arguments" and showing how he is so wrong in so many different ways is addictive. It's fun for a while. Unraveling his mischaracterizations and diversions is also an interesting mental task for a time. Then it's more like an accident you can't turn your head away from and it starts sucking you into a never-ending pit. At some point you just have to leave him to his narrative.William J Murray
November 30, 2014
November
11
Nov
30
30
2014
10:23 PM
10
10
23
PM
PDT
@Pachyaena #560
I’m a curious fellow so will you please explain how diseases, suffering, death, catastrophes, extinctions (and especially mass extinctions) are “reasonably sensible approaches to solving problems or achieving goals”, “more sensible, efficient, economical and organized [...] approaches”, “intelligent”, and “smarter”?
I'm trying to figure out what relevance you think this has to the primary topic of this thread. On the one hand, you seem to be assuming that ID claims everything that exists today exists in exactly the form it existed when it was first designed and continues to function exactly as originally intended. On the other hand you seem to be asking me to provide philosophical or religious defenses for phenomena and events in the history of life that nobody is claiming shows evidence of being the product of design in the first place. Chance events do happen. Things do break down. From an ID perspective, when things can be reasonably explained by reference to chance or law, that is the preferable explanation. This is not an argument against the appropriateness of inferring design in cases where we find positive evidence for it and chance or law do not seem to be viable explanations based on the current state of our scientific knowledge.HeKS
November 30, 2014
November
11
Nov
30
30
2014
10:20 PM
10
10
20
PM
PDT
WJM #556:
The PoI is inappropriate to use in situations where you know the actual distribution is not going to be flat, even if you don’t know how it is going to be skewed.
William, You're in full Internet Crackpot Mode now. First of all, we don't know that the actual distribution won't be flat. A flat distribution is one of many possibilities. Secondly, if you were correct that the PoI should only be applied in situations where we know that the probability distribution is flat, then there wouldn't be any need for the PoI at all. We would just use the known probability distribution! So you, a random guy on the Internet, are presuming to tell statisticians that they cannot use the PoI in exactly the cases for which it is intended to be used and rationally should be used. Can you understand why knowledgeable onlookers will roll their eyes at this? You also seem to think that if you can prevent me from using the PoI, that ID is somehow saved from my argument. It isn't, not by a long shot. Suppose that your crackpot idea were actually correct, and that my use of the PoI was illegitimate in this case. We've already agreed that we don't know who the actual designer is, or what his/her/its characteristics are. If you wished to forbid the use of the PoI, then we couldn't assume any probability distribution. So we have two competing hypotheses. One of them, unguided evolution, predicts the ONH out of trillions of possibilities. This prediction is confirmed in spectacular fashion. Meanwhile the competing hypothesis, ID, doesn't predict anything. You've ruled that out by forbidding the use of the PoI. Which hypothesis should we favor, the one that makes a spectacularly successful prediction, or the one that doesn't? You don't have to be a statistical genius to figure this one out.keith s
November 30, 2014
November
11
Nov
30
30
2014
10:17 PM
10
10
17
PM
PDT
To sum up Keith's position on using the PoI: Even though Keith admits that, given any designer, their choices will not likely conform to a flat probability distribution wrt all possible choices, he thinks that because we don't know how those choices will be skewed then it is appropriate to use the principle of indifference. Just knowing that the choices will be skewed wrt probability is enough to invalidate the use of the PoI. The PoI should only be used when there is no reason to believe the probability distribution will not be flat.William J Murray
November 30, 2014
November
11
Nov
30
30
2014
10:07 PM
10
10
07
PM
PDT
@WJM #563
Here I’ve repeatedly said that we don’t know the actual possibilities available to the designer(s) of life (other than, via minimum assumptions, the one we actually see), yet now keith is challenging me to provide a probability distribution assessment for the possibilities he’s imagined or else I’m “dodging the question”.
Yes, it's an interesting dynamic we have going here, isn't it? Keith insists we work within the bounds of his approach or else we're dodging the issues, even though we're saying that his approach is mistaken to begin with. Meanwhile, Keith ignores everything that is inconvenient to his position, but when we point out that he's ignoring things he tells us to complain less and provide more substance ... substance that he then proceeds to ignore again. I'm having a hard time remembering why we're doing this.HeKS
November 30, 2014
November
11
Nov
30
30
2014
10:03 PM
10
10
03
PM
PDT
Here I've repeatedly said that we don't know the actual possibilities available to the designer(s) of life (other than, via minimum assumptions, the one we actually see), yet now keith is challenging me to provide a probability distribution assessment for the possibilities he's imagined or else I'm "dodging the question".William J Murray
November 30, 2014
November
11
Nov
30
30
2014
09:54 PM
9
09
54
PM
PDT
Pachyaena #552 So then you're using the term "creationism" in a very general sense rather than the one that relates to fundamentalist Christian Young Earth Creationism that begins with a particular literal reading of Genesis and conforms all evidence and facts to that particular view. In other words, you're using it in a way that could apply to people who begin with scientific observations and evidence, determine that there are indicators of intelligent design in biology, chemistry, astronomy, physics, and cosmology and thereby conclude that the designer is supernatural (i.e. originates or originated outside of our physical universe)? Well, OK, then some ID people, including myself, would fall into that category. But it's hard to figure out why you would use such a politically- and ideologically-charged term that evokes very specific ideas in most people's minds except for rhetorical purposes. #555 Read comment 553 by me.HeKS
November 30, 2014
November
11
Nov
30
30
2014
09:53 PM
9
09
53
PM
PDT
dgw:
You are applying the wrong tools to the problem. I recommend you look at the field of decision theory. The argument from ignorance is your ignorance not the designer’s. Good designers make wise decisions consistent with whatever cost function they choose to optimize.
dgw, What cost function did the designer choose to optimize, and how do you know?keith s
November 30, 2014
November
11
Nov
30
30
2014
09:46 PM
9
09
46
PM
PDT
HeKS said: "We expect intelligent beings to make context-sensitive choices and use reasonably sensible approaches to solving problems or achieving goals. The smarter they are, the more sensible, efficient, economical and organized we expect their approaches to be. If an approach to achieving a goal or solving a problem is reasonable, sensible, efficient, etc., then we have no good reason to think that an intelligent person would be unlikely to use it to achieve the goal or solve the problem." I'm a curious fellow so will you please explain how diseases, suffering, death, catastrophes, extinctions (and especially mass extinctions) are "reasonably sensible approaches to solving problems or achieving goals", "more sensible, efficient, economical and organized [...] approaches", "intelligent", and "smarter"? Do you believe in the biblical god?Pachyaena
November 30, 2014
November
11
Nov
30
30
2014
09:43 PM
9
09
43
PM
PDT
Keith said:
If you can justify an alternative probability distribution, then go to it. Show your work.
Non-sequitur. I never claimed there was a means for developing a meaningful probability distribution or a reason to acquire one in the first place. I'm just pointing out that the PoI is inappropriately used in your argument.
Until then, we’ll do what the statisticians do, which is to employ the PoI. Statisticians know a lot more about their subject than you do, William.
I have justified the use of equal probabilities. It’s the standard statistical approach in cases like this. Statisticians know that it is justified; they use the PoI for a reason.
Please support your assertion that PoI is a standard statistical approach in cases like this and is used appropriately in your argument.William J Murray
November 30, 2014
November
11
Nov
30
30
2014
09:42 PM
9
09
42
PM
PDT
1 14 15 16 17 18 35

Leave a Reply