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HeKS continues to suggest a way forward on the KS “bomb” argument

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Last week, one of my comments relating to the KS “bomb” argument was made the subject of an OP, which can be found here.

In that comment, I had offered a few preliminary thoughts on Keith’s argument (originally found here, and summarized by him here) and asked a few questions to better understand the assumptions informing his argument. Unfortunately, the issues raised in my OP comment, as far I can tell, were never actually addressed. Instead, the ‘responses’ in the ensuing conversation revolved almost entirely around what the participating ID proponents considered obviously false analogies, which invoked “Planetary Angels”, “Rain Fairies”, “Salt Leprechauns”, and “Toilet Whales”.

Regarding these analogies, Keith, Zachriel, and other ID opponents, seemed to be arguing as though ID claims a designing agent is necessary to explain the shape/pattern of the ‘Objective Nested Hierarchy’ (ONH) into which living organisms are claimed to fall, when the production of  an ONH can be explained by a natural, unguided process of branching descent.  Thus, they claimed, there is no difference between the ID position and one that claims planets are moving in elliptical orbits because angels are choosing to push them around in such orbits, or one that claims salt falls from a salt shaker into a pile on the table because the falling salt is being guided by invisible leprechauns who like making salt piles. The idea here is that in each case we have some superfluous explanatory entity being posited to directly guide some process that looks exactly like it is not being guided, does not need to be guided, and is explained perfectly well by law-based processes.

During the course of the thread it was pointed out to them innumerable times that, even granting the existence of an ONH for life, ID does not and would not cite the shape or production of such an ONH as being an example of something that requires an explanation by reference to an intelligent cause. Rather, in identifying the need for an intelligent cause to explain certain aspects of biology, ID points to the evident infusion of significant amounts of biological information into the world of life, as well as the novel introduction of complex, functionally-specified biological systems and molecular machines. In other words, for its evidence, ID points to aspects of life that do not seem obviously explicable by reference to purely natural processes, whether stochastic or law-based, but that do contain hallmarks that we habitually and uniquely associate with conscious, intelligent, intentional activity. In yet other words, the previously mentioned analogies to “Planetary Angels” and “Salt Leprechauns” are horribly and obviously misguided and entirely off the mark.

Unfortunately, the distinction never seemed to get through to them. And even more unfortunately, the thread was eventually derailed and shut down while a number of conversations were still in progress. Aspects of the discussion, however, continued here.

In that new thread, the Rain Fairies, the Salt Leprechauns, and their most recent common ancestor, the Plantary Angels, have again reared their head, being invoked in response to the objection from ID proponents to the description of microevolution as being “unguided”. The point of the ID proponents in this case relates quite closely to one of the claims in Keith’s so-called “bomb” argument, with which I myself took issue in the previously mentioned OP. In Keith’s summary of his argument, he says that even “the most rabid IDer” admits that “unguided evolution” exists, with the ultimate intention of extrapolating what ID proponents admit happens into what they say does not happen.

Now, when Keith refers to “unguided evolution” here, he is referring to the relatively minor microevolutionary changes that take place within a population, but on the view of ID proponents, these are not the kind of phenomena that could, even in principle, be extrapolated to account for the macroevolutionary innovations that would be necessary to account for the full content of the alleged ONH “Tree of Life”. And in taking issue with the characterization of microevolution as “unguided”, the ID proponent is taking issue with the fact that a phrase that might be uncontroversially applied to a subset of these phenomena is, within the context of Keith’s argument, being over-generalized in a way that implicitly suggests an acceptance by ID proponents of propositions they do not actually accept, and so is a case of illegitimately stealing ground en route to the argument’s conclusion.

In addition to my comments in the original OP, I expanded on them somewhat in a recent comment, which I’ll duplicate here to fill out the remainder of this post and hopefully spur further discussion.

From here:

Now, when it comes to this business of proving that microevolution is unguided, I think there needs to be an understanding of what it would even mean to suggest that it is “guided”. I’m reasonably certain that the majority of people who would dispute claims that microevolution is unguided do not mean that a designer is actively, in the moment, effecting a specific microevolutionary change. Nor would they dispute that random mutations happen. Rather, they would likely dispute that all mutations are random. And they would also likely argue (as I did in the previous thread) that the constrained allowance for – and even rapid increased initiation of – mutations and general genetic and epigenetic changes are a purposeful aspect of the design of organisms to allow for diversification and adaptation (which is sometimes very rapid). If the random variation or shuffling is too large, however, it kills the organism, makes it sterile, or at the very least reduces its reproductive potential, decreasing the chances that the significant defect will be passed on or largely affect subsequent generations of a population.

In other words, the argument is not that random mutations allowing microevolution look unguided but are actually being directly manipulated by some designer. Rather, the argument is that 1) the RM/NS mechanism is a constrained feature of organismal design, and that the Neo-Darwinists are looking at a design feature of a system that makes use of randomization and illegitimately extrapolating it to explain the entire system itself; and 2) that not all mutations/changes are random at all, but some are internally directed in a purposeful manner for the benefit of the organism.

So, it seems to me that, from an ID perspective, saying something like, ‘even IDists admit unguided evolution exists’, is either A) a case of making a trivial claim that cannot be legitimately extrapolated from the kinds of microevolutionary changes that are seen (overwhelmingly degrading genetic information and/or narrowing genetic variability; breaking or blunting existing biological function for a net fitness gain) to the kinds of macroevolutionary innovations that are theorized (the introduction of complex, functionally-specified systems and molecular machines), or B) a case of making an unwarranted and unsubstantiated claim that the system that allows for and makes use of the RM/NS mechanism for the benefit and diversification of the organism does so by fluke, in a way that is fully unconstrained, and is itself undesigned; or C) both.

Of course, as I’ve said numerous times before, I think this is only one of many issues with Keith’s argument, but it has become quite clear that it is difficult to get even just one criticism seriously addressed in a comment thread, so it would likely be useless to draw in any others at this point. I’m hoping that the nonsensical false analogies about Rain Fairies and Planetary Angels can be left to the side to allow for some kind of substantive discussion of the issues, but I’ve been given little reason to suspect that my hope is grounded.

 

Comments
keiths has given up arguing for unguided evolution. A random misfiring of some neuron perhaps? Mung
HeKS, Very well stated. The logical conclusion of your argument appears to imply that evolution itself is evidence of Intelligent Design. This is a position I have taken for quite some time. OTOH, as others in this thread have pointed out on a few occasions, Keiths has yet to even provide evidence that evolution forming an ONH can occur on a basis of unguided occurences. His 'bomb' is nothing but an empty, rusted shell. AnyWho, that's my two cents. CJYman
Think, HeKS. You’re confusing a hierarchy within a design with a hierarchy of designs.
The ONH of OOP objects making up a software application is a hierarchy of designs. Life is the software application. The organisms are the objects of which it consists.
You are telling us to neglect the fact that most human designs don’t fall into ONHs, and to neglect the fact that even most software systems don’t fall into ONHs, but to concentrate on the fact that some (and only some) software designs contain class hierarchies. Talk about cherry-picking your evidence! I’ll have more to say tomorrow, but that is truly a ridiculous and unjustifiable move.
You clearly have a very hard time understanding the point of an argument. The question is whether or not a designer would have any reason to choose an ONH pattern for life rather than any of a supposed trillion other options. I know how much you enjoy assigning flat probabilities across the logically possible choices that an agent might make, but if we actually care about considering the question honestly then, surprisingly enough, we actually have to look at cases of human design that are in some way comparable to life. Software design is the most closely related field of human design that we have, and the connection is widely recognized by people on both sides of the debate. In attempting to determine if a designer would have a strong reason for using an ONH in the design of life instead of some other pattern, or no pattern at all, it is not particularly helpful to simply take a survey of how often human-made designs happen to produce ONHs. Such an approach simply assumes that the putative designer's use of an ONH would be random rather than purposeful, such that the likelihood of an ONH pattern being used in this context would in some way simply correspond to its frequency of appearance across all human design endeavors. In other words, it assumes that there would not be any particular reason for the designer to use an ONH and that ONHs, in general, are not used for any particular reason. But this is the very thing you're trying establish to give your argument some semblance of force, and my choice not to use your mistaken and misguided approach does not constitute cherry-picking. In order to consider this issue honestly we have to ask ourselves whether humans use ONH patterns, and if so, when and why? Do they show up randomly? Or are they used in particular scenarios for a particular purpose and in line with some particular design logic. Then we can ask whether those circumstances in which humans use ONHs, and the reasons they use them, apply to the world of life in such a way that the use of an ONH would be a desirable (even a best-practice) approach for a putative designer of life. When we conduct such an investigation, we find that ONHs are produced when there is some kind of progression taking place within a unifying context, when there is some kind of common functional requirement or dependency that exists throughout that context, and where there either currently is or there is a future potential for a high degree of diversity of functions, choices, etc. ONHs show up in such circumstances because they are produced by a logical, efficient approach to handling these circumstances. Where these criteria are not present, we would not expect to find an ONH. Pointing to situations in which we would not expect to find an ONH and noting that we do not find an ONH is not particularly interesting or impressive and it does not tell us much of relevance in terms of whether or not a designer of life would have some reason to produce an ONH. Now, I've given several examples of cases in which human design produces ONHs, such as in the planning of exhaustive or near-exhaustive diversity within a domain of services or products, in the development of processes and procedures, the organization of pathways on a circuit board, and, in Software Engineering, the functional and data dependencies making up a software application, represented by class hierarchies in OOP and function hierarchies in procedural and functional programming. Of these, it is the programming scenario that produces discrete objects / designs that can be organized after the fact into an inferable ONH pattern. And, as it happens, Software Engineering is precisely the field of human design that is widely recognized by people on both sides of the debate to be highly relevant to the world of life. The important point, however, is not just that good programmers consistently produce ONHs, but why they do so and what logic leads to their production. I described these reasons in previous comments. For example:
best practices in a field of human design (software development) most relevant to what we know about life consistently produce ONH patterns by writing and organizing code in a way that is highly efficient and scalable / expandable . . . . where new functionality builds on and outwards at various points from existing functionality
It’s how they get their designs to work best while leaving hooks at various points in their code to build off of in another direction to add new functionality.
a nested hierarchical approach to programming, with objective nested dependencies and OOP class inheritance by sub-/extended-classes, is considered a best practice, as it maximizes the efficiency of coding and prevents you from inefficiently writing new code to do the same thing a different way in the same context.
So, in deciding whether or not some putative designer of life would have had a good reason to design life in an ONH pattern, the question we need to ask is not how often, generally, humans happen to produce ONHs - or even simply how often they produce them in fields relevant to life, such as programming, which is pretty much all the time - but why they produce them when they do and whether the logic is applicable to the world of life. And it is quite clear that the logic obviously does carry over. And if best design practices in programming routinely lead to ONHs at multiple levels, why should we surprised on a design hypothesis to find that the world of life, which has very many widely acknowledged similarities with Software Engineering, also displays ONHs at multiple levels. Why should we be surprised to find an ONH pattern on a design hypothesis if good programmers using best design practices routinely generate the same patterns? There is zero reason for an ID proponent to think that life falling into an ONH pattern would have to simply be a randomly selected pattern by a designer when they can point to very clear and applicable design logic that would lead to such a pattern and regularly find the same pattern in the field of human design that is most similar and most relevant to the world of life. In case it is not clear at this point, allow me to spell out the problem. Your argument goes wrong here yet again because you approach the whole issue from the wrong perspective. Intelligent activity is not investigated the same way as either random or law-like processes. We don't simply survey how many times humans carry out action X or Y, absent any context, and then use the statistical results of our survey to predict what some specific person will do in a specific situation. Typically we observe the results of intelligent action after the fact, identify it as such, and then investigate the reasoning behind it and determine if that reasoning was sensible, efficient, etc., and what that might tell us about the agent who carried out the action. If, instead, we want to predict what action or approach an unknown person will likely take in some situation, then we can identify a range of likely actions or approaches by identifying what other people have done in similar circumstances, or perhaps even what we would do, and that will tend to give us at least a workable framework of what to expect, given some agent who has at least our level of intelligence. Of course, if the logic of some approach is sound and well tested in relation to competing approaches and has even become a best-practice, then it would not be unreasonable to expect that it might be used even by an agent who is significantly more intelligent than us, but with a more sophisticated implementation. And this is precisely what was noted by the previously mentioned Microsoft Engineer about living organisms:
'All those design patterns are inside the cell, except they’re using a design logic that’s like an 8.0, 9.0, 10.0 version of ours. It’s the same basic logic, but it’s more elegantly executed'
Why should we be surprised to find the same thing at the macro scale of life?
UE fits the evidence without cherry-picking. It’s the better hypothesis.
This claim does not get any less silly with repetition. I've addressed this claim at length. HeKS
Phinehas, That is correct. keiths says: "An ONH within an organism differs from an ONH that relates all the organisms to each other" but doesn't tell us what the difference is. Still waiting to hear where he thinks his ONH that relates organisms to each other comes from if not from the organisms that make it up. Mung
keiths:
You are telling us to neglect the fact that most human designs don’t fall into ONHs, and to neglect the fact that even most software systems don’t fall into ONHs, but to concentrate on the fact that some (and only some) software designs contain class hierarchies.
Apparently, keiths wants to make something of whether an ONH is observed inside a "system" or across "systems." But there are at least a couple of problems with this argument. 1) Keiths acts like this is an important distinction, but he never tells us why it must be. He expects others to accept his assertion without question, or he expects them to take on the task of disproving his assumptions. In either case, keiths obviously doesn't take his obligation to support his own argument very seriously. Keiths needs to show why it is unlikely for a designer to use an ONH. His argument rests on this premise, but so far he has done nothing to support it in the face of contrary evidence, despite how desperate he is to pretend otherwise. 2) Even more problematic, keiths' argument about "systems" rests entirely on his own ability to draw an arbitrary boundary describing what is inside or outside the "system." His argument rests on claiming that each organism is a "system" and that they, therefore, demonstrate an ONH across systems in contrast to "software systems." But why should we draw the system boundary where keiths does so? After all, organisms are part of an ecosystem. So, from this perspective, the ONH is not across systems, but internal to the ecosystem, just like an ONH of programming objects is internal to the programming system. Similarly, why must a "software system" be defined at the program level? Programming objects, with their data and methods, can readily be seen as analogous to an organism. There's nothing that would preclude this, is there? So, if an organism can be a system, why can't a programming object be a system as well? Why can't an ONH be seen as existing across programming objects within the program system in the same way an ONH exists across organisms within the ecosystem? Keiths doesn't even attempt to tell us, hoping instead, for the sake of his damp squib, that everyone will simply swallow his assumptions with the same lack of skepticism that he is accustomed to employ. Phinehas
Keiths
If unguided evolution isn’t responsible for the elaborate predatory adaptations that happened after the Fall, then who or what is?
I don't think it is an all or nothing proposition. In my judgment, the fall affected nature and the ability of animals to co-exist peacefully. On the other hand, I also think that the Creator designed carnivores as carnivores for ecological reasons, not for the purpose of suffering, as you indicated. TRex probably had those jaws long before the Fall of man. My question to you persists: How and why did carnivory (and the evolutionary arms race) begin? Relate the timing of that event to the Cambrian explosion. StephenB
My Internet connection is down (I'm on my phone), so I won't be able to respond until sometime tomorrow. HeKS
StephenB, You still haven't answered my question. If unguided evolution isn't responsible for the elaborate predatory adaptations that happened after the Fall, then who or what is? Be specific. keith s
keiths
Think, HeKS. You’re confusing a hierarchy within a design with a hierarchy of designs. An ONH within an organism differs from an ONH that relates all the organisms to each other.
So the ONH within organisms is due to design and not due to unguided evolution? And yet it's these ONH's within organisms from which we construct the ONH that relates all the organisms to each other from which we get our proof that evolution is unguided. How does that work? keiths:
Living organisms do fit into an inferable ONH, as predicted by unguided evolution.
"Unguided evolution" doesn't predict anything. keiths:
Apart from religious reasons, why would anyone prefer ID?
If you have a rational alternative to ID we'd love to see it. Mung
So unguided evolution is responsible for all of the predatory adaptations after the Fall?
No. I was laughing at your "poof, there it is" scenario posing as an explanation. Unguided evolution is not responsible for anything.
Straight answer, please.
How straight can an answer get? How about answering my question? How and why did carnivory (and the evolutionary arms race) begin? Relate the timing of that event to the Cambrian explosion. StephenB
// Adressing Zachriel's continues bluffing //
Box (quoting Behe): - They deleted an enzyme that previous work showed could likely be replaced.
Zachriel: They chose a strain that already lacked trpF.
Nope, trpF was deleted.
Näsvall: Deletion of the trpF and hisA genes. The his A and trpF genes were replaced with FLP-recombinase target (FRT) site flanked kanamycin resistance (KanR) cassettes derived from plasmid pKD4, using the lambda-red recombineering functions from plasmid pKD46 (24).
**/-
Box (quoting Behe): They added the necessary nutrient histidine because previous work showed that mutations conferring an ability to make tryptophan destroyed the ability to make histidine.
Zachriel: In any case, Behe’s statement is directly contradicted by the experiment itself.
Nope, Behe’s statement is in full accord with the experiment.
Näsvall: We included histidine in the medium because previous studies have demonstrated that mutations that confer TrpF activity to Thermotoga maritima HisA results in loss of HisA activity (27).
**/-
Box (quoting Behe): The added histidine would have shut off production of the protein, so they removed the genetic control element to keep it in production.
Zachriel: They started with an enzyme that had HisA activity, but also had acquired a spontaneous mutation for weak TrpF activity. They then grew it in a medium lacking histidine and tryptophan. They didn’t have to do anything to keep histidine in production, as the enzyme was already there.
Nope, everything Behe said is confirmed by Nasvall. They had to remove the genetic control element.
Näsvall: The expression of the his operon (including hisA) is regulated by an attenuation mechanism that regulates the amount of read-through of a transcriptional terminator before the first structural gene of the operon according to the availability of charged histidinyl-tRNA (2V). As this results in very low expression of hisA in medium containing histidine, we included a mutation (hisO/242) (29) which removes the transcriptional terminator thereby leading to de-repressed transcription of the his operon even in the presence of histidine.
**/-
Box (quoting Behe): Later, once they found mutations to produce tryptophan, they removed histidine from the medium to encourage the production of mutations restoring histidine synthesis.
Zachriel: The spontaneous mutation necessary to produce tryptophan was at the *very beginning* of the experiment, not somewhere in the middle.
At the very beginning? What are you talking about? Box
keiths:
Manufactured objects generally do not fall into an inferable objective nested hierarchy, and neither do software systems. Class hierarchies within a system don’t help you.
As long as keiths gets to pick and choose what qualifies as a "system." As long as a programming object with its data and methods couldn't possibly be a system. As long as an ecosystem couldn't possibly be a system. Keiths once again makes assumptions and assertions and thinks everyone else ought to be beholden to them.
UE fits the evidence without any special pleading...
Ahahahahahahahahahahahahaha! So funny! But also a bit sad. Phinehas
Box: They didn’t have to do anything? The mutations were spontaneous. They cultured the mutant that represented the innovation. Are you saying the innovation couldn't have occurred except in artificial conditions? For what reason? Box: This shuts down “evolution”. That depends on the environment, which often changes during the course of evolution. Are you saying that changes in availability of histidine and tryptophan never occur in nature? Zachriel
Zachriel #998,
Box (quoting Behe): The added histidine would have shut off production of the protein, so they removed the genetic control element to keep it in production.
Zachriel: They started with an enzyme that had HisA activity, but also had acquired a spontaneous mutation for weak TrpF activity. They then grew it in a medium lacking histidine and tryptophan. They didn’t have to do anything to keep histidine in production, as the enzyme was already there.
They didn’t have to do anything? Utter nonsense. Only two mutations are required to evolve TrpF activity. However the first one presents a formidable hurdle:
Näsvall: Two mutations were required for this innovation: First, an internal duplication of codons 13 to 15 (dup13-15) gave a weak TrpF activity but led to a complete loss of HisA activity.
Bummer! This shuts down “evolution”. Or is there still a way forward? How did Näsvall restore HisA activity? Amino acid substitution followed by the isolation of unhelpful mutants:
Näsvall: A subsequent amino acid substitution [Asp^10?Gly^10 (D10G)] restored some of the original HisA activity (10). We also isolated two other bifunctional derivatives of hisA that had acquired TrpF activity, (…)
After that intelligent manipulation (designing) simply goes on and on, which shows how apt Behe’s comparison with ‘a rolling-ball maze’ actually is. Box
UE fits the evidence without cherry-picking.
UE doesn't make any predictions nor can it be modeled. It is outside the realm of science. keith's lies will never change that fact Joe
Living organisms do fit into an inferable ONH,
Not really. There isn't an ONH for prokaryotes and given a gradual evolution there shouldn't be one at all. But then again keith is ignorant of nested hierarchies. Joe
HeKS, Your cherry-picking attempts are obvious. UE fits the evidence without cherry-picking. It's the better hypothesis. keith s
Keith, You seem to have an incredibly hard time following the logic of an argument. You keep pointing to the aspects of things that are least relevant to life and saying, "See? That doesn't fall into an ONH. Why aren't you giving that the most weight?" Whatever. I'm going to bed. HeKS
HeKS, You can't be serious. You are telling us to neglect the fact that most human designs don't fall into ONHs, and to neglect the fact that even most software systems don't fall into ONHs, but to concentrate on the fact that some (and only some) software designs contain class hierarchies. Talk about cherry-picking your evidence! I'll have more to say tomorrow, but that is truly a ridiculous and unjustifiable move. UE fits the evidence without any special pleading, yet here you are making excuse after excuse for neglecting the majority non-ONHs and focusing just on the ONHs, solely in order to prop up ID. keith s
StephenB, So unguided evolution is responsible for all of the predatory adaptations after the Fall? Straight answer, please. keith s
Keith, For goodness sake, Keith. Look at the whole paragraph rather than just the first sentence.
In OOP, class hierarchies form the whole basis for the entire project. They specify traits (properties) of things and what things can do (methods). Individual objects are merely instances of classes. An object that instantiaties a class becomes a self-contained representation of the class, having its properties and methods. An object that instantiates an extended class becomes a self-contained representation of that class and its parent classes(s). In other words, it becomes a “physical” representation of objectively hierarchically organized blueprints, and objects instantiated from the various levels of the blueprints (the original class, one of it’s sub-classes, one of its sub-sub-classes) could also be organized after the fact into an ONH.
The ONH exists at at least two different levels: the blueprints and the intantiations. The classes themselves form an ONH of related blueprints, where one class builds on another as you descend through the branches (or ascend, depending on how you look at it). However, classes are made to be instantiated into objects that actually do things. Any given object is an instantiation of a class and any higher-level classes that class has inherited properties or methods from. So, imagine we have Class1, with extended (child) classes Class2 and Class3. Class2 has extended classes Class4 and Class5, while Class3 has extended classes Class6 and Class7. Class1 will be instantiated as an object, with the properties and methods of that class. At another point, Classs2 will also be instantiated, having the new properties and methods of Class2 as well as those of Class1. The same will happen for Class4, which will have its own new properties and methods as well as those of Class2 and Class1. Class5 will also get instantiated and have its own new properties and methods as well as those of Class2 and Class1, but not those of Class4. Any object will be a compilation of the properties and methods of all the prior classes in its line of descent. The objects making up a project and actually doing stuff will be capable of being organized into their own ONH (using as many datasets as you like), because they were instantiated in accord with hierarchically nested blueprints, having been designed in a coherent way.
You’ve made an obvious mistake by confusing different levels of description. Manufactured objects generally do not fall into an inferable objective nested hierarchy, and neither do software systems. Class hierarchies within a system don’t help you.
No, Keith, you're the one who is confusing different levels of description. You're confusing the tasks that a software application does as a whole, or even the software application itself, or perhaps even a group of completely separate applications, for the individual things, the objects, that carry out their own tasks within the unified context of a software application and jointly make up the whole. Class inheritance in OOP operates exactly as common descent is envisioned as happening and it produces exactly the same types of patterns. The thing is, the blueprints upon which the objects are based, including the extensions - the new functionality and traits that get added to distinguish a new class from its ancestors - are the product of design, and the objects that get instantiated with properties and methods of their own as well as those of their ancestors are instantiated deliberately and contiguously rather than continuously. If the classes and extended classes in a software application were instantiated as 3D objects in the real world, with both external physical traits (properties) and internal systems and functions (methods), you would have a collection of things that would look very much like the world of life we see in many relevant ways and that could be categorized after the fact into an ONH using multiple datasets. As it happens, we don't really have the technological capability to do this degree of real-world 3D instantiation at the moment, but we can do it digitally in a much less sophisticated manner (and anyway, who's really to say we're not a simulation on someone's computer with delusions of existing in a 3D world?). More importantly, we have reasons for taking this design approach that make perfect sense in the context of designing a diverse world of life, where precisely the same best-practice design logic would apply (and the soundness of the best-practice approach would be discernible from the project itself). Your attempted counter-argument here is truly weak. There is just no way to have a serious and honest discussion with you. You're too enamored with a lame argument and so you grasp at any conceivable objection to rescue it. Who do you think you're convincing with any of this stuff? Because it seems at this point that you're just trying to convince yourself. HeKS
Keiths
No, you ruled that out already
Of course, I did. I wasn't serious. I just thought it might be fun to think like Keiths. Oxygen levels increase>>> >animals bulk up>>>carnivores dutifully appear>>>and the arms race is on. The next thing you know---zowie--diversity. Who needs a designer" LOL StephenB
keiths:
Regarding the Fall, can you explain how all the elaborate and deadly means by which predators track and kill their prey came about via “compromised” benign designs?
StephenB:
One way would be through an evolutionary arms race after the fall.
No, you ruled that out already:
UE can’t do it because UE can’t do anything.
The Designer must have done it, or Someone Else did. Do tell. keith s
Keiths
Regarding the Fall, can you explain how all the elaborate and deadly means by which predators track and kill their prey came about via “compromised” benign designs?
One way would be through an evolutionary arms race after the fall. However, I was hoping that you would tell me how and why carnivory (and the evolutionary arms race) began and relate the timing to the Cambrian explosion. StephenB
keiths:
Why does he [HeKS] ignore the fact that the class hierarchies of object-oriented programming are hierarchies within designs, not across the entire universe of designed systems? He doesn’t say, but it just so happens that acknowledging it would weaken his case for ID.
HeKS:
In OOP, class hierarchies form the whole basis for the entire project...
Think, HeKS. You're confusing a hierarchy within a design with a hierarchy of designs. An ONH within an organism differs from an ONH that relates all the organisms to each other. Likewise, a class hierarchy within a design differs from an ONH relating all of the designs to each other. You've made an obvious mistake by confusing different levels of description. Manufactured objects generally do not fall into an inferable objective nested hierarchy, and neither do software systems. Class hierarchies within a system don't help you. Living organisms do fit into an inferable ONH, as predicted by unguided evolution. UE simply fits the evidence better. Apart from religious reasons, why would anyone prefer ID? keith s
keiths - "I did? Quote, please." Here let me help you https://elnuevoeuropeo.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/wpid-screenshot_2014-11-19-16-47-21-1.png?w=676 . DavidD
Upright Biped:
Yet, when you started this ludicrous argument on UD, you conceded upfront that the weakness in your argument was your mere assumption that Darwinian evolution could originate Orgel’s specified complexity (OSC).
I did? Quote, please. keith s
Oh come now Keith, have you forgotten what your non-negotiable criteria are for a scientifically valid claim? If I remember right (and I do) one of them is that the claim must be scientifically falsifiable. Yet, when you started this ludicrous argument on UD, you conceded upfront that the weakness in your argument was your mere assumption that Darwinian evolution could originate Orgel’s specified complexity (OSC). And in making this concession, you graciously offered ID proponents the criteria they would need in order to seek salvation from your ridiculous assumption. You suggested that ID proponents can falsify your claim if they merely “demonstrate that evolution cannot produce OSC” (some 3.5 billion years ago).This is, of course, not possible to demonstrate scientifically. This leaves your claim in the position of being a non-falsifiable assertion based on an assumption that no one in their right mind would allow you to make in science. Yet, you presented it as a fundamental necessity in making your claim. Oops. Another of your non-negotiable criteria is that any scientific claim must demonstrate consequences that unambiguously distinguish it from its competing theory. Yet again, this is a problem. Through your very own form of charismatic self-indulgence, you’ve made it profoundly clear that either of the two competing explanations are perfectly capable of producing the effects in question. In fact, this was a central feature in your presentation. You’ve said so over and over and over again. What you offer as a distinguishing feature is not actually in the material evidence at all; it’s only another assumption made by the investigator promoting the claim. Oops. But hey, don’t fret. Allow me to repay you for your generosity in telling us that all we could do to refute your claim was an impossible task. Back in October, you claimed that you’ve already demonstrated that Darwinian evolution can give rise to the OSC found in biological systems. Oddly enough, no one was able to recall you providing these particular details. To do as you claim, you’d have to show how Darwinian evolution could give rise to the information and translation apparatus that leads to that OSC. You’d need to show how it leads to an informational medium having a controlling effect on objects other than itself, and doing so in ways that are not derived from the dynamic properties of the materials involved. Of course, you were called on this claim when you made it, but surprisingly, you choose not to defend it. This is unfortunate, given that its the only thing that could make your argument meet your own standards for claims in science. Upright BiPed
With the words "Care to substantiate your assertion?" ringing in his ears, brave Sir Upright runs away once more. keith s
Oh, no. If I wanted to do that I would have done it back in the 3rd week of October when you stuck your foot in it. Besides, as you have demonstrated to the point of no return, logic and rationality have no impact on you anyway. No, I decided then to watch your argument be disassembled on it merits, not on its lack of merit. We have all been rewarded. What you need to do now is prance around in victory some more. Upright BiPed
Upright,
…and still, your argument doesn’t meet even your own non-negotiable standards for a scientifically-useful claim.
Care to substantiate your assertion? keith s
...and still, your argument doesn't meet even your own non-negotiable standards for a scientifically-useful claim. You've brought UD the spectacle of belligerent certainty and brilliant self-refutation. Thanks. Upright BiPed
StephenB, Regarding the Fall, can you explain how all the elaborate and deadly means by which predators track and kill their prey came about via "compromised" benign designs? keith s
Mung:
spanked
Upright Biped:
Yes, spanked. Again.
From two of the least qualified guys at UD to pronounce on that, despite the large number of spankings each of them personally receives. keith s
Wasn't keiths reading some new book that was supposed to sound the death knell for ID? Weren't we all going to be hearing a lot from keiths from that book? The hype. The letdown. The bomb that never went off. Mung
Yes, spanked. Again. Not only that, but his "argument" doesn't even meet his own standards for a scientifically useful claim. Upright BiPed
HeKS:
As it happens, software engineering is very often recognized to be just such a field by people on both sides of this debate, both software and life being based on digital code and making use of very similar design patterns and logic.
That would make for an interesting OP should you care to pursue it. Software Design and the Design of Life or some such. Software Design Patterns in Biology. Consider it. Thanks. Mung
spanked Mung
Keith directs the following comments/questions about me to StephenB, and I answer: #1.
HeKS is presuming to tell us what evidence is and isn’t relevant, with no justification.
All evidence is relevant, but that doesn't mean it's all equally relevant, or even all relevant in the same way. The fact that ONHs do not typically manifest themselves in areas of design that have little or no relevance to life is not evidence against ID in biology. The fact that you can't objectively categorize balls or chairs into a nested hierarchy, and that manufacturers don't manufacture them with the intention that they should be capable of being so classified, does not mean that there is therefore no good reason for a designer to design life according to a nested hierarchy. If we want to know whether or not a designer would have such a reason, we must at least look to fields of human design that are more similar to life than objects like balls and chairs. As it happens, software engineering is very often recognized to be just such a field by people on both sides of this debate, both software and life being based on digital code and making use of very similar design patterns and logic. Now, you've claimed that I've given no justification for my weighting of the evidence (which you falsely characterized as excluding evidence), but as usual, this is untrue, and leads into your next question. ------------ #2.
How does he know that software development is “most obviously relevant to life”? He doesn’t.
This is widely recognized. From my comment #845
Life is based on biological information encoded into digital code, which happens to make use of tightly constrained, objective nested hierarchical control programs within the body of every organism that controls their developmental processes. Yes, ONHs are used to guide the developmental processes of individual organisms. They don't just show up at the macro scale of life as a whole. .... I’m not assuming that object-oriented programming (and BTW, procedural programming applies as well) is like the design of terrestrial life in all the relevant ways. I’m noting that it is incredibly similar in very many relevant ways and that there is no other human endeavor that I’m aware of that is more similar. Other people have made similar comments: “DNA is like a computer program but far, far more advanced than any software ever created.” – Bill Gates [SOMEONE WHO DESIGNS SOFTWARE] “Life is a DNA software system” – Craig Venter [SOMEONE WHO DESIGNS DNA] Steve Meyer has recounted a story about a former Microsoft engineer who he was working with [SOMEONE WHO DESIGNS SOFTWARE FOR A LIVING AND IS NOW STUDYING DNA]. Of this software engineer he says:
He walks into my office one day, throws a book down on the table. It’s called Design Patterns — standard textbook for computer design engineers — and he says, ‘I get the eerie feeling, when I’m looking at what’s going on in the cell, that’s somebody’s figured this out before us.’ And I said, ‘What do you mean?’ And he says, ‘Well, it’s the design patterns,’ and then he points to the book. . . . ‘We’ve got design logic for processing information, for doing error correction, for doing distributed data retrieval and reassembly, and for hierarchical organization — we’ve got files within folders, like on your desktop, you know, in the hierarchical filing system.’ And he says, ‘All those design patterns are inside the cell, except they’re using a design logic that’s like an 8.0, 9.0, 10.0 version of ours. It’s the same basic logic, but it’s more elegantly executed,‘ and he says, ‘It gives me an eerie feeling.
Here's another comment from Venter:
"All living cells run on DNA software, which directs hundreds to thousands of protein robots. We have been digitizing life for decades, since we first figured out how to read the software of life by sequencing DNA." - Craig Venter, DNA, the Software of Life
------------ #3.
How does he know that the vast majority of human designs — the ones that don’t form objective nested hierarchies — are irrelevant? He doesn’t.
Well, I don't recall anyone ever saying that life is like a ball or a chair. At least not anyone who remotely understood either life or balls or chairs. And I'm pretty sure that Forrest Gump was not speaking literally when he said that "life is like a box of chocolates". If you want to make a case that these types of products of design should carry equal weight with software engineering in determining whether or not a designer of life would have a reason to employ ONHs, you are free to do so, but so far you've made no such case. You've only whined that I say the weight of the evidentiary value from these different fields is clearly asymmetrical. By the way, I've also pointed out that humans use nested hierarchies when planning exhaustive or near-exhaustive diversity for different domains or avenues of services or products, which they then use as a guide to development. This may or may not lead to a discernible ONH pattern to the products/services after the fact, but it doesn't change the use of the nested hierarchy in plotting and carrying out development, making the nested hierarchy objective with respect to the reality of the planning, development and production, even if it cannot be reconstructed in isolation after the fact. I've already described the type of situation in which I've personally used this. ONHs also routinely appear in process and procedure design, in terms of decision points and the steps that ensue. In addition to being a programmer, I work as a business process and procedure consultant. In this role, I help clients to analyze the efficiencies and redundancies in their processes and make improvements. One of the primary ways I do this is by charting out their current processes and procedures in nested hierarchies, finding out if there are any reasons for redundancies that cannot be overcome, and then ensuring minimal repetition or crossover between branches. The NH is objective because the steps cannot be hierarchically organized by different criteria and still be expected to produce a coherent and functional process. Yet another area in which ONHs are used (but which I didn't bring up because it is not my area of expertise) is in circuit boards. And as I've said (#845), there are "tightly constrained, objective nested hierarchical control programs within the body of every organism that controls their developmental processes", which have themselves been compared to complex circuit diagrams, and organisms themselves develop in an ONH pattern, as CharlieM pointed out. So ONHs don't just show up at the macro scale of life as a whole. ------------ #4 & #5.
How does he know that what’s considered good practice for human software design is also good practice for an unknown designer pursuing unknown goals via unknown capabilities and unknown resources? He doesn’t. How does he know that the designer even cares about following what humans consider to be best practices? He doesn’t.
Yes, Keith ... what humans could be expected to do is highly relevant when you think it helps you but unimportant when it turns out to hurt you. Again from my #845:
The obvious fact of the matter is that when you came here with this argument, you did not think there could be any concrete or discernible reason why an ONH pattern would be more preferable to an intelligent designer than any other type of pattern, or that there were any relevant situations in which humans consistently produce them as a best-practice design pattern. Let's consider the number of times you've appealed to the importance of the connection, or rather disconnection, between human designs and ONHs in this thread alone.
"Humans routinely wreck ONHs."
But programmers don't. They try very hard not to and plan carefully to try to avoid breaking them. I make several passes over the course of a project, spending several hours each time, just trying to maximize my use of ONH code structures and keep them clean and without overlap, and this is after spending time trying to plan them out at the beginning of the project as well. Programmers do this not because they love ONHs for their own sake but because of their functional utility and expandable versatility.
"No one knows of any reason whatsoever for a designer to be limited in this way. Humans certainly aren’t, as I’ve already explained."
And as I've explained, yes, we do know of reasons for a designer to intentionally limit themselves in this way, and they routinely do as a best-practice design pattern in the area of human design that most closely resembles and is the most relevant to the world of life.
"ONHs are the rare exception, not the rule, in human design."
Except that they are the rule in human software design, not the exception.
"Humans, for example, generally don’t care at all about whether their designs form an objective nested hierarchy. They just want their designs to work. To defeat my argument, IDers need to show that the Designer is very un-humanlike in this respect."
Except that programmers care very much about whether their designs form objective nested hierarchies. It's how they get their designs to work best while leaving hooks at various points in their code to built off of in another direction to add new functionality. So in this respect the designer would be very humanlike. Of course, it's hard to keep track of whether we need to show that the designer is humanlike or un-humanlike to satisfy your requirements and defeat your argument. Here you claim that we need to show the designer is very un-humanlike to defeat your argument, but that was only because of the difference you were trying to invoke between the way you thought human designers were expected to act compared to the way the putative designer would have acted. But as it turns out, the putative designer would have acted very humanlike in his designing activities when compared to the most closely relevant field of software programming, and so now we're not allowed to "assume" that the designer would act humanlike.
"[Humans] can create ONHs, but they generally don’t, so this doesn’t help you at all."
Except that in the most closely relevant area of human design they generally do. For good measure, Zachriel also said:
"[I]t’s worth pointing out that human artifacts generally do not form an objective nested hierarchy."
Then it should also be worth pointing out that human programmer artifacts (their code, in the form of OOP classes or functions related in nested hierarchical dependencies) generally do form objective nested hierarchies. And now back to you:
"It isn’t enough to show that a human designer might, on some occasions, choose to produce an ONH, but not on others."
But then it seems it should be enough to show that in the most closely relevant field of human design, being software development, human designers do (not might), consistently (not just on some occassions), choose to produce ONHs whenever possible, because it is considered a best-practice in their (my) field. However, since you've made it quite clear at this point that your only interest is in upholding your argument at any cost, I'm quite certain that you would not consider this or anything else "enough".
This is the way you have argued, Keith. Keith: We have no reason to think a designer would choose to design life in the motif of an ONH rather than any of a trillion other vague options. After all, humans don't design things in ONH motifs. HeKS: Actually, human programmers do, in both Object-Oriented and Procedural programming. All the time. It results from best-practice design patterns. And it's widely recognized that software engineering is relevant to life. Humans also routinely use ONHs in other relevant fields. Keith: But what about the cases where they don't? HeKS: Those cases where humans don't produce ONHs (e.g. balls, chairs, garbage cans, tables, etc.) seem quite obviously less relevant to life than the cases where they routinely do. It seems we should give more weight to the cases that are quite obviously more relevant. And these more relevant cases also show that we actually have coherent reasons for why a designer would use an ONH motif after all. Keith: You're so dishonest. Stop telling us to ignore all the evidence that hurts ID. There's no reason why we should think software design is more relevant than anything else. Why should we think what humans would do is relevant at all? Why should we think that the designer even wanted to produce a diverse world of life at all? Why should we think anything at all? You just want to prop up ID. ------------ #6.
Why does he ignore the fact that the class hierarchies of object-oriented programming are hierachies within designs, not across the entire universe of designed systems? He doesn’t say, but it just so happens that acknowledging it would weaken his case for ID.
In OOP, class hierarchies form the whole basis for the entire project. They specify traits (properties) of things and what things can do (methods). Individual objects are merely instances of classes. An object that instantiaties a class becomes a self-contained representation of the class, having its properties and methods. An object that instantiates an extended class becomes a self-contained representation of that class and its parent classes(s). In other words, it becomes a "physical" representation of objectively hierarchically organized blueprints, and objects instantiated from the various levels of the blueprints (the original class, one of it's sub-classes, one of its sub-sub-classes) could also be organized after the fact into an ONH. And, as I've also said, this general best practice applies to Procedural and Functional programming as well. Not just OOP. In these approaches, best practices still lead to code being organized into objective nested hierarchies of functional dependencies. And in web development the ONHs are not used just in the functional code, but also in the styling code and the structural markup. ------------ #7.
HeKS isn’t examining the evidence to discern the truth. He’s filtering and distorting the evidence to prop up his precommitment to ID. It’s painfully obvious.
Whatever you need to say to make yourself feel better. HeKS
KeithS
[HeKS] He’s also saying that the relevant contexts are the ones in which ONHs appear. See the phrase ‘actually relevant’ in that quote?
You shamelessly misrepresented his comments. There is no question about it. SB: Do you agree that organisms appear to be designed? Keiths
Only superficially. When you look at the evidence carefully and scientifically, they’re clearly the products of unguided evolution.
Nonsense. Everyone, even Richard Dawkins, agrees that organisms appear to be designed. You are so steeped in your own ideology that you cannot provide a reasonable answer to a reasonable question.
My question was about your Designer. Why was he so keen to put all but a handful of marsupials in Australia, and all of the cacti in the Americas? Please don’t dodge the question this time.
To answer your question, I need to know why you think the described phenomenon indicates unguided evolution. A designer might have reason's to set things up that way.
You’re not thinking it through, Stephen. Yes, a designer could do it either way, but unguided evolution can’t. UE fits the evidence better than ID.
You have not shown that unguided evolution can produce anything at all. If UE has no power to produce, then it has no power to explain.
I gave the example earlier of satellite radios showing up simultaneously in all kinds of different makes and models of cars. Human designers do things like that all the time. When has your designer ever lifted a system that complicated out of the tree and transplanted it to another limb? It’s clear why unguided evolution doesn’t do it: it can’t.
UE can't do it because UE can't do anything.
Another prediction of UE confirmed, while ID has no explanation for this odd designer behavior.
Oh yes, we love your after-the-fact predictions. I predict that the US stock market will crash in 1929. With your methodology, I can't miss. LOL
Evolutionary arms races make perfect sense if evolution is unguided. What’s the ID explanation of this bizarre designer behavior?
ID makes no claims to the effect that everything or every process in nature was designed. ID holds only that "some features" in nature are better explained that way.
Why is your Designer so fond of death and suffering, anyway? Why did he build creatures who can’t survive except by killing others? It’s exactly the kind of thing you’d expect unguided evolution to do.
SB: I don’t think the designer created them that way.
You don’t? How did they get that way, then?
I think that nature was corrupted by the Fall.
Interesting. Looks like Stephen had second thoughts about this:
No, no second thoughts. Why would I second thoughts? SB: It may well be that something happened that compromised the design.
Heh. Would that be the Fall, by any chance?
I gave you a little hint, didn't I?
Stephen, it’s extremely bad form to change the content of your comments that way unless you are merely correcting typos or fixing formatting errors.
You think its "bad form" to edit or change emphasis in the process of writing an answer? Why do you think so? I don't think so, especially since its the same answer with a different emphasis, as in: [a] Here is what I think about the cause (The Fall) vs. [b] here is what I think about the effect (Compromised design). I just decided to go with the latter emphasis, but it was not because I changed my mind about [a]. StephenB
Box (quoting Behe): - They deleted an enzyme that previous work showed could likely be replaced. They chose a strain that already lacked trpF. Box (quoting Behe): - They added the necessary nutrient histidine because previous work showed that mutations conferring an ability to make tryptophan destroyed the ability to make histidine. The whole point is that the organism evolves in response to the environment. They manipulated the environment to watch the changes in the genes. In any case, Behe's statement is directly contradicted by the experiment itself. Box (quoting Behe): - The added histidine would have shut off production of the protein, so they removed the genetic control element to keep it in production. They started with an enzyme that had HisA activity, but also had acquired a spontaneous mutation for weak TrpF activity. They then grew it in a medium lacking histidine and tryptophan. They didn't have to do anything to keep histidine in production, as the enzyme was already there. Box (quoting Behe): - Later, once they found mutations to produce tryptophan, they removed histidine from the medium to encourage the production of mutations restoring histidine synthesis. The spontaneous mutation necessary to produce tryptophan was at the *very beginning* of the experiment, not somewhere in the middle. That was the innovation they were studying within the context of their hypothesis of innovation-amplification-divergence model. What the experiment shows is how this initial innovation would evolve. Start with a single gene with strong HisA and weak TrpF. From there, different strains take different paths. Some evolved so that the single gene acquired moderate capability for both HisA and TrpF. Others evolved by gene duplication, with one gene providing highly optimized activity for HisA, and another providing highly optimized activity for TrpF. Zachriel
keiths:
1. Unguided evolution predicts an ONH, and ID doesn’t.
Your assertion about unguided evolution is just that, an assertion. It is not testable.
What ever happened to “follow the evidence wherever it leads?” You guys used to love saying that.
There is no evidence for unguided evolution, so no evidence to follow. Unguided evolution doesn't lead to anything. Mung
In post #950 Keith argues directly for the capability of unguided evolution to produce the fancy stuff we see. He links to a 2012 article which title does not cover the subject - a familiar Darwinian tradition founded by the old master himself. After I pointed out #954 that Behe has decisively rebutted the article, Keith reverted to simply assuming that unguided evolution is up to the job. What is up with that Keith? Was that one article all you got? Box
keiths:
How do you explain your Designer’s predilection for mimicking unguided evolution?
Keiths is trying to steal ground again. Given the above, one would almost think keiths had actually demonstrated that "unguided evolution" could do diddly squat, but he hasn't. This is just bluster and sophistry. It can easily be flipped around. Will keiths accept the following "argument" for design?
How do you explain "unguided evolution's" predilection for mimicking a designer?
I'm betting he won't. Yet I don't doubt he will continue to be convinced that his argument is somehow more sophisticated than this reformulation. It might be entertaining to watch him try to explain why, but I imagine he will opt for simply ignoring the obvious. Phinehas
keiths:
How does he know that the designer even cares about following what humans consider to be best practices? He doesn’t.
HeKS doesn't claim to know any such thing. Why? Because he doesn't have to. the burden-of-proof lies on your shoulders, not his. It is your argument to support, not his. All he needs to demonstrate is that you don't have any real reason or support for claiming otherwise. And you quite clearly don't. Nor is it HeKS' responsibility to show that programming is the most relevant evidence to consider. All he has to do is suggest that it might be, and it then becomes your responsibility to either demonstrate that it isn't or admit that you can't support your argument. Lacking a supported argument, you are desperately trying to shift the burden-of-proof, but it won't work. Phinehas
keiths:
Now you’re talking about a “weather satellite” so massive that it would completely disrupt the weather it was sent to monitor. The designer you have in mind must be pretty dim.
With all these red herrings, we should have a fish fry. Does the argument change if it is a communications satellite instead? Or if it is just a bunch of skyscrapers on Charon, as I suggested earlier? Still, I'm sure you'd rather deflect than engage the actual argument. And I don't have a designer in mind, so stop projecting. You are the only one who thinks you have the designer all figured out.
That isn’t my logic. If intelligence is needed, then we should infer intelligence. But you haven’t shown that intelligence is needed to explain the diversity and complexity of terrestrial life.
Nice attempt at burden-of-proof shifting. It's your argument to support. If you can't do it, just say so. (The rest of us will be shocked! Shocked I tell you!) You are the one who desperately needs to produce something of substance, not me. All I need to do is to continue using your argument against itself so that, hopefully, you finally understand that there really is no there there. Falling back on the Darwinian, "If it could be demonstrated that any complex organ existed, which could not possibly have been formed by blah, blah, blah" only works with the selective hyper-skeptic. Phinehas
Family trees are examples of branching descent with modification that do not produce nested hierarchies of traits. Joe
Here's a demonstration of the utter emptiness of the Darwinist argument: what is under debate is the very question of if evolution can be characterized in any significant sense as "unguided"; that even if some aspects are technically unguided, ID's argument is that such aspects are housed entirely within a designed frame work and regulated by an intelligently crafted system. Keith then attempts to circumvent this argument by simply insisting the process is unguided and thus what it produces by definition would be what the product of unguided evolution would look like! Keith, until you demonstrate at least in principle that an unguided system can produce X artifacts, you cannot use X artifacts as evidence that the system is unguided. We know for a fact that intelligently guided systems can produce X artifacts. You can't point to the system currently under debate as your evidence that unguided systems produce X artifact. Point somewhere else in nature if you can. William J Murray
StephenB said:
I don’t agree with that characterization. To mimic unguided evolution, the designer would not have given organisms the appearance of design. Do you agree that organisms appear to be designed?
Keith said:
Only superficially.
Yeah, because once you get into the guts of the cell, all those coded blueprints, self-regulatory networks, 3D printers, operating systems, error-checking systems, and other highly precise, interdependent complex nanotechnology doesn't appear to be designed at all, right? Keith continues:
When you look at the evidence carefully and scientifically, they’re clearly the products of unguided evolution.
You mean, an evolutionary process you admit cannot be vetted as "unguided"? You assume evolutionary success can be sufficiently explained via unguided forces with no means for justifying that assumption, then claim that the product of evolution you've assumed to be unguided in the first place is evidence that it is unguided in the second place? It doesn't get any more circular than that. William J Murray
Zachriel: Branching descent with modification produces a nested hierarchy of traits. Box: The commonly cited names of Santa Claus’s reindeer are Dasher, Dancer, Prancer, Vixen, Comet, Cupid, Donner, and Blitzen. That's a nice thought in keeping with the season, but not sure it relates to the point raised. Zachriel
Oops- Blixem- Dunder and Blixem. Blizem went to Blixen and then to Blitzen Joe
Donder, not Donner. Donder, from Dunder- Dunder and Blitzen- thunder and lightning. We now return to our regularly scheduled program... Joe
Branching descent with modification produces a nested hierarchy of traits.
And yet family trees are examples of branching descent with modification that do not produce nested hierarchies of traits. You lose because you are too ignorant to learn. Joe
StephenB: I wouldn’t expect unguided evolution to produce anything at all for the simple reason that there is nothing in the cause that could produce the effect.
Zachriel: Branching descent with modification produces a nested hierarchy of traits.
The commonly cited names of Santa Claus's reindeer are Dasher, Dancer, Prancer, Vixen, Comet, Cupid, Donner, and Blitzen. Box
StephenB: I wouldn’t expect unguided evolution to produce anything at all for the simple reason that there is nothing in the cause that could produce the effect. Branching descent with modification produces a nested hierarchy of traits. Zachriel
Keith, After you have answered CharlieM's question, about the survival race between newts and snakes, can you provide a step by step explanation of the coming into existence of the snake's poison fang under unguided evolution? Let's start off with a normal tooth. What happens next? Box
keith@ #972 You are making several assumptions here. Why do you call the designer 'he'? Why do you think that there was a single designer who put marsupials in one place and cacti in another? Do you know why humans use gears in so many designs? It is because the power source and the output are mismatched. There would be no need for gearing if the driver and the driven were well matched. Let's look at your logic about the arms race between newts and snakes. Snake eats poisonous newt and survives because it has developed a certain resistance to the poison. Newt becomes slightly more toxic. Does this save it from being eaten? No. The snake has no idea whether or not it will survive the meal. Either the newt dies alone or it dies together with the snake. What method do you propose that more toxic newts have of out competing less toxic newts in the survival race? What is it that prevents them from being eaten? CharlieM
What ever happened to “follow the evidence wherever it leads?”
You tell us as you don't follow anything but your delusions.
As soon as you noticed that the evidence leads away from ID, you stopped saying that.
We haven't noticed such an event.
1. Unguided evolution predicts an ONH,
Liar
This is exactly the kind of thing you’d expect from unguided evolution.
Liar
Evolutionary arms races make perfect sense if evolution is unguided.
Cuz keith s sez so! All science so far! Joe
Interesting. Looks like Stephen had second thoughts about this:
I don’t think the designer created them that way.
...and replaced it with this:
It may well be that something happened that compromised the design.
Heh. Would that be the Fall, by any chance? Stephen, it's extremely bad form to change the content of your comments that way unless you are merely correcting typos or fixing formatting errors. keith s
StephenB:
I don’t read it that way at all. He is simply saying that ONH patterns are common in one context and not common in other contexts.
He's also saying that the relevant contexts are the ones in which ONHs appear. See the phrase 'actually relevant' in that quote? keiths:
How do you explain your Designer’s predilection for mimicking unguided evolution?
StephenB:
I don’t agree with that characterization. To mimic unguided evolution, the designer would not have given organisms the appearance of design. Do you agree that organisms appear to be designed?
Only superficially. When you look at the evidence carefully and scientifically, they're clearly the products of unguided evolution. keiths:
Why was he so keen to put all but a handful of marsupials in Australia, and all of the cacti in the Americas?
StephenB:
I wouldn’t expect unguided evolution do produce a marsupial. I wouldn’t expect unguided evolution to produce anything at all for the simple reason that there is nothing in the cause that could produce the effect.
We know you doubt the power of unguided evolution, but that wasn't the question. My question was about your Designer. Why was he so keen to put all but a handful of marsupials in Australia, and all of the cacti in the Americas? Please don't dodge the question this time. keiths:
Having invented the gear, why hasn’t he used it in any other species? Reusing complex ideas is something human designers do all the time. Why doesn’t your Designer?
StephenB:
Now you are doing the very same thing that you falsely accused HeKS of doing, asking us to “ignore” the evidence of human designers who do not reuse complex ideas...
You're not thinking it through, Stephen. Yes, a designer could do it either way, but unguided evolution can't. UE fits the evidence better than ID. I gave the example earlier of satellite radios showing up simultaneously in all kinds of different makes and models of cars. Human designers do things like that all the time. When has your designer ever lifted a system that complicated out of the tree and transplanted it to another limb? It's clear why unguided evolution doesn't do it: it can't. Another prediction of UE confirmed, while ID has no explanation for this odd designer behavior. keiths:
What about those evolutionary arms races? Does your Designer adjust the newts, then decide to adjust the snakes to compensate, then adjust the newts again, then adjust the snakes again, over and over again, for a reason? It makes perfect sense if unguided evolution is operating.
StephenB:
<crickets chirping...>
You skipped this question, Stephen. Were you hoping I wouldn't notice? Evolutionary arms races make perfect sense if evolution is unguided. What's the ID explanation of this bizarre designer behavior? keiths:
Why is your Designer so fond of death and suffering, anyway? Why did he build creatures who can’t survive except by killing others? It’s exactly the kind of thing you’d expect unguided evolution to do.
StephenB:
I don’t think the designer created them that way.
You don't? How did they get that way, then? keith s
SB: Show us where HeKS asks us to “ignore the evidence of designs that don’t conform to an ONH.” KeithS offers this passages from HeKS:
Then, of course, everything turned back to the ONH pattern, so I explained that in the field of human design most obviously relevant to life (software development), ONHs are incredibly common, being routinely produced as the result of implementing best-practice design patterns, and so clearly are not nearly so rare in human design as he thought (and made sure to repeatedly invoke) when we consider circumstances that are actually relevant.
HeKS is presuming to tell us what evidence is and isn’t relevant, with no justification.
I don't read it that way at all. He is simply saying that ONH patterns are common in one context and not common in other contexts. That is a long way from saying that we should "ignore evidence of designs that don't conform to an ONH."
How do you explain your Designer’s predilection for mimicking unguided evolution?
I don't agree with that characterization. To mimic unguided evolution, the designer would not have given organisms the appearance of design. Do you agree that organisms appear to be designed?
Why was he so keen to put all but a handful of marsupials in Australia, and all of the cacti in the Americas?
I wouldn't expect unguided evolution do produce a marsupial. I wouldn't expect unguided evolution to produce anything at all for the simple reason that there is nothing in the cause that could produce the effect.
Having invented the gear, why hasn’t he used it in any other species? Reusing complex ideas is something human designers do all the time. Why doesn’t your Designer?
Now you are doing the very same thing that you falsely accused HeKS of doing, asking us to "ignore" the evidence of human designers who do not reuse complex ideas, and presuming to say that the designer never does it (this from the same person who says that we can know nothing about the designer). Here, though, is the difference: HeKS is innocent of the charge you made about him, but you are guilty of the charge that I am making about you.
Why is your Designer so fond of death and suffering, anyway? Why did he build creatures who can’t survive except by killing others? It’s exactly the kind of thing you’d expect unguided evolution to do.
It may well be that something happened that compromised the design. In any case, I wouldn't expect unguided evolution to even get off the ground. It simply doesn't have the juice to produce. StephenB
Well HeKS, you have reduced Keiths to pedantic, argumentative whining. Your patience and tenacity in the face of such juvenile behavior in well noted and appreciated. keiths is not here to to engage but try to embarrass. even his hometurf TSZ is not keen on his style of commentary. Guess maybe why he's been shopping around for new real estate. anyway, as they say in chinese: jia yo, jia yo, jia yo (??,??,?? ); go, go, go!! Steve
LOL. HeKS shows up after a couple of days and immediately claims he’s being misrepresented again. Big surprise.
Yes, Keith. And it is blatant. HeKS
For starters (until tomorrow), to give a more accurate representation of what I've said, I reproduce most of my #885
Keith says:
HeKS is telling us what evidence to pay attention to and what evidence to ignore, and guess what? The evidence he says we should ignore just happens to be the evidence that hurts ID. No doubt that’s just a coincidence.
Hah. Yes, I’m suggesting that we give more weight to the best-practice design decisions made in fields of human design that are most relevant to life rather than giving more or equal weight to the cases that are far less relevant or completely unrelated. How silly of me. . . . . . . .The fact remains that in the field of human design that is clearly very relevant to life, ONHs are produced all the time as a best practice for easily understandable reasons. Any reasonable person should recognize the heavily asymmetric value of this evidence. The fact that you want to ignore it and pretend that I’m the one acting irrationally to support my case is quite telling, Keith.
You just go right ahead with your blatant misrepresentations. Nobody is fooled, Keith. HeKS
HeKS:
LOL. I’m not around for a couple days and I come back to find … Keith misrepresenting me again. Big surprise.
LOL. HeKS shows up after a couple of days and immediately claims he's being misrepresented again. Big surprise. keith s
LOL. I'm not around for a couple days and I come back to find ... Keith misrepresenting me again. Big surprise. Basically every question you just asked to StephenB about me is either a misrepresentation or is answered within the text of my comments on the use of ONHs by programmers. I probably won't be around until the afternoon tomorrow. If StephenB doesn't answer your questions by the time I get here (which could actually be done by pasting in the answers from my previous posts), then I'll do it. HeKS
StephenB, Here for example:
Then, of course, everything turned back to the ONH pattern, so I explained that in the field of human design most obviously relevant to life (software development), ONHs are incredibly common, being routinely produced as the result of implementing best-practice design patterns, and so clearly are not nearly so rare in human design as he thought (and made sure to repeatedly invoke) when we consider circumstances that are actually relevant.
HeKS is presuming to tell us what evidence is and isn't relevant, with no justification. How does he know that software development is "most obviously relevant to life"? He doesn't. How does he know that the vast majority of human designs -- the ones that don't form objective nested hierarchies -- are irrelevant? He doesn't. How does he know that what's considered good practice for human software design is also good practice for an unknown designer pursuing unknown goals via unknown capabilities and unknown resources? He doesn't. How does he know that the designer even cares about following what humans consider to be best practices? He doesn't. Why does he ignore the fact that the class hierarchies of object-oriented programming are hierachies within designs, not across the entire universe of designed systems? He doesn't say, but it just so happens that acknowledging it would weaken his case for ID. HeKS isn't examining the evidence to discern the truth. He's filtering and distorting the evidence to prop up his precommitment to ID. It's painfully obvious. Okay, I answered your question, StephenB. Here are a few that you can answer for me: How do you explain your Designer's predilection for mimicking unguided evolution? Why was he so keen to put all but a handful of marsupials in Australia, and all of the cacti in the Americas? Having invented the gear, why hasn't he used it in any other species? Reusing complex ideas is something human designers do all the time. Why doesn't your Designer? What about those evolutionary arms races? Does your Designer adjust the newts, then decide to adjust the snakes to compensate, then adjust the newts again, then adjust the snakes again, over and over again, for a reason? It makes perfect sense if unguided evolution is operating. Why is your Designer so fond of death and suffering, anyway? Why did he build creatures who can't survive except by killing others? It's exactly the kind of thing you'd expect unguided evolution to do. I look forward to your answers. keith s
Keiths,
1. Unguided evolution predicts an ONH, and ID doesn’t. Solution? Ignore the evidence of designs that don’t conform to an ONH. Why? Because HeKS tells us to. Trust him — he knows which evidence is irrelevant and should be ignored. And it just so happens that the evidence we should ignore is the evidence that hurts ID. Interesting coincidence, no?
OK Keiths, I'll play. Show us where HeKS asks us to "ignore the evidence of designs that don't conform to an ONH." StephenB
IDers, What ever happened to "follow the evidence wherever it leads?" You guys used to love saying that. As soon as you noticed that the evidence leads away from ID, you stopped saying that. 1. Unguided evolution predicts an ONH, and ID doesn't. Solution? Ignore the evidence of designs that don't conform to an ONH. Why? Because HeKS tells us to. Trust him -- he knows which evidence is irrelevant and should be ignored. And it just so happens that the evidence we should ignore is the evidence that hurts ID. Interesting coincidence, no? 2. Biogeography. Why so many species unique to islands? Why marsupials in Australia, but few outside? Why cacti in America, but not in other deserts? All of these are exactly what you would expect if evolution were unguided. So what do IDers do? Ignore the evidence. Evolution only looks unguided, but they know better. 3. Predator-prey arms races. Snake eats newt. Newt evolves toxin to prevent snake from eating it; snake evolves resistance to newt toxin. The cycle continues. Eventually the newt becomes one of the most toxic animals on the planet, yet snakes are still eating them. This is exactly the kind of thing you'd expect from unguided evolution. How do IDers explain it? How is this the expected behavior of a designer? Answer: it isn't. Evolution is unguided. The ONH, biogeography, and evolutionary arms races all point to that conclusion. (And there are plenty more where those came from.) IDers are telling us, "Evolution may look exactly as if it were unguided, but we know better. Don't follow the evidence where it leads. Trust us -- we'll tell you what evidence to consider and what evidence to ignore, what to believe and what not to believe." keith s
CharlieM #961, Pachyaena has been silently banned, so don't expect a reply. keith s
keiths: Your analogies keep getting worse and worse. Pot, Kettle, Black Mung
Phinehas, Your analogies keep getting worse and worse. Now you're talking about a "weather satellite" so massive that it would completely disrupt the weather it was sent to monitor. The designer you have in mind must be pretty dim. It's clear what you're trying to do. You're trying to come up with a case that "my logic" (or rather, your straw man version of it) would attribute to unintelligent causes, when intelligence is clearly required. That isn't my logic. If intelligence is needed, then we should infer intelligence. But you haven't shown that intelligence is needed to explain the diversity and complexity of terrestrial life. UE fits the evidence extremely well, and ID doesn't. Why would a rational person prefer ID? keith s
keiths:
You still don’t get the physics.
And you still don't get that the physics you are so worried about have nothing to do with my argument, but that's OK. I can spell it out for you.
Charon is in a synchronous orbit around Pluto because its large mass slowed Pluto’s rotation through tidal friction. Synchronous satellites above the earth aren’t sufficiently massive to slow earth’s rotation by the required amount, so they must be placed in orbits that are synchronous to begin with. Unintelligent natural processes are a non-starter as an explanation for that.
So, obviously, if we found the mother of all weather satellites in orbit, and it was massive enough to tidal lock the earth's rotation, then we could conclude that no intelligent intervention was required to explain it, right? Right? It's somehow the mass and tidal locking that is crucial to the point being made, right? In the case of a massive, tidal-locking weather satellite, we wouldn't want to infer the involvement of Satellite Angels. You might want to stop digging this hole for yourself, keiths. It is becoming more and more obvious that you cannot address the point being made and would rather discuss distractions. Phinehas
Phinehas, You still don't get the physics. Charon is in a synchronous orbit around Pluto because its large mass slowed Pluto's rotation through tidal friction. Synchronous satellites above the earth aren't sufficiently massive to slow earth's rotation by the required amount, so they must be placed in orbits that are synchronous to begin with. Unintelligent natural processes are a non-starter as an explanation for that. Find another "analogy", or better yet, try to refute my actual argument. keith s
keiths:
Charon didn’t fall into a synchronous orbit, because the orbit wasn’t synchronous until after the tidal locking happened.
So what? You are making a distinction without any real difference. The point which I've been making all along, and which you seemed to not get at all at first and now seem to be deliberately missing, is that satellites can and do reach synchronous orbit through purely natural processes. Whether or not tidal locking is part of that process is a useful distraction I am sure, but a distraction nonetheless. So, since satellites can reach synchronous orbit through purely natural processes quite routinely (as evidenced by the fact that this has occurred to one of the few planetary satellites in our solar system), we needn't invoke any Satellite Angels or other intelligent activity to explain the satellites in synchronous orbit above the earth, right? Since we both know that guided satellites could have been guided to a trillion different places in the universe, we can say with confidence that no intelligent guidance was involved in placing the various communications and weather satellites into geosynchronous orbit, right? The odds would be a trillion to one against an intelligent being guiding them into exactly the same kind of orbit as that taken up by Charon, right? Please tell me you won't make an appeal to Satellite Angels, keiths. Don't forsake Science keiths. Believe. Phinehas
A barrier to macroevolution has been found. And how was it determined that gene duplication is an unguided process? Joe
HeKS:
Believe it or not, Keith, I do have other things to do in life other than responding to you.
That's an odd thing to say, given that I haven't issued deadlines or demanded an immediate response to my questions. We all have lives outside of UD (I hope).
If you actually took in the totality of the context of my comments on this issue you would notice that I have described what we observe as being the overwhelming trend and the kinds of things we generally see. I haven’t claimed it’s impossible that any such things could ever happen, though I don’t find your linked article to be a valid counter-example of “unguided evolution” producing a significant amount of novel functional information to the genome.
Remember, you are arguing for the existence of a barrier to macroevolution. If you concede that unguided processes such as gene duplication can produce "novel functional information", then you are conceding that the production of such information is not an absolute barrier, but at most a quantitative one. In that case you need a quantitative argument showing that amount of "functional information" created by these processes is insufficient to explain what we observe. keith s
Hi Pachyaena. You direct me to #956 so I will in turn direct you to Box's response at #960. it says all that is needed. You imply that I am saying "a lot of really irrelevant things". Well I don't know about you but I was under the impression we were talking about designs and designers. I think you are being illogical when you say this is irrelevant. I used to think that proteins were produced inside the cell and then they randomly jostled around until they reached a place where they were needed. I used to believe this because this was how it was portrayed. Unguided randomness was the order of the day and it fitted in well with established biological thinking. But now with modern viewing techniques we see organisation, guidance and sophistacated transport methods. Over the years we have gone from cells being thought of as a sack of goo to cells containing organelles between which various molecules bump around haphazardly. DNA does not make cells; cells use DNA to make what they need. Now we are beginning to see what a marvel the cell is as demonstrated below: From NCBI
Within cells, membrane-bounded vesicles and proteins are frequently transported many micrometers along well-defined routes in the cytosol and delivered to particular addresses. Diffusion alone cannot account for the rate, directionality, and destinations of such transport processes. Early video light microscopy studies showed that these long-distance movements follow straight paths in the cytosol, frequently along cytosolic fibers, suggesting that transport involves some kind of tracks. Subsequent experiments, using nerve cells and fish-scale pigment cells, first demonstrated that microtubules function as tracks in the intracellular transport of membrane-bounded vesicles and organelles, and that movement is propelled by microtubule motor proteins
So much for the micro scale, what about the macro scale? We have been lead to believe that there is no guidance in the forms that organisms take over the course of evolution, they are jostling around filling niches in the same way that cellular molecules were thought to jostle around to reach their location. But now we are beginning to see that its not an infinite landscape. Living forms must go down certain channels. Think of marsupials and their placental equivalents or the sonar of bats and cetaceans. The more we learn the more organisation and guidance becomes apparent. The establishment does not give up its entrenched ideas easily but when it comes down to it facts have to be dealt with, they cannot be brushed under the carpet. CharlieM
Pachyaena,
Box: The point is to make as few unsupported assumptions about the designer as possible, because unsupported assumptions are, well, unsupported.
Pachyaena: Then you IDers should stop making unsupported assumptions, right?
Yes, we all should strive for as few unsupported assumptions as possible; in accord with the law of parsimony aka Occam’s razor.
Box: For one, Keith makes the unsupported assumption that the designer can do anything; trillions of options are available et cetera; IOW that the designer is (just about) omnipotent.”
Pachyaena: There you go again putting limits on ‘the designer’.
Can you point out exactly where I put limits on the designer? Objecting to Keith's unwarranted assumption of omnipotence doesn’t equal putting limits on the designer. Saying “Keith, we cannot know this, so you have no warrant for your assumption”, is not the same as putting limits on the designer. Saying “we don’t know” is not equal to saying “the designer is limited”.
Pachyaena: Why are you assuming that ‘the designer’ isn’t or can’t be omnipotent, (…)
I’m not saying that She is omnipotent or that She is not omnipotent. I’m saying that ‘we don’t know’ and have no warrant for assuming that the designer is omnipotent or not or something in between.
Pachyaena: (…) especially since most IDers (including the ones who founded and are ‘leading’ the ‘ID movement’) believe (assume) that the allegedly omnipotent, omniscient, omnipresent, infinite, perfect, imaginary (assumed) Abrahamic god is ‘the designer’?
You may very well be right about their personal believes and BTW I personally don’t believe in an Abrahamic God. However the scientific definition of intelligent design does not include an Abrahamic God.
Dembski: “intelligent design is compatible with external design imposed by a conscious personal intelligent agent. But it is not limited to this understanding of teleology in nature. In fact, it is open to whatever form teleology in nature may take provided that the teleology is real.” “Intelligence therefore need not merely refer to conscious personal intelligent agents like us, but can also refer to teleology quite generally.” "The definition of intelligent design just given, which explicitly cites real teleology and does not restrict itself to external design, (…)" -- See #382 and #385
Pachyaena: Ultimately it doesn’t matter which imaginary (assumed) supernatural-designer-creator-god you IDers believe in (assume) because you’re still promoting an assumed supernatural-designer-creator-god whether you admit or not.
You need to make a distinction between personal beliefs and a position on intelligent design in a scientific context. As a matter of fact ID doesn’t hold a position on 'the designer'. ID is about design detection. Once design is detected, ID steps aside and let others speculate on the consequences of this discovery. You are dismissive of ID based on the alleged motives of the leaders of ID. Allow me to quote William J Murray:
Even if (hypothetically) young-earth Christian fundamentalists do plan to use ID via the “Wedge Document” to form a theocratic government and force students to study the Bible, that would have no bearing on whether or not ID itself is a good scientific theory. Even if all ID advocates are lying hypocrites with dastardly plans to use ID in some horrific social fashion, that is still not a valid argument that ID theory is not scientific.
Box
HeKS said: "...I don’t find your linked article to be a valid counter-example of “unguided evolution” producing a a significant amount of novel functional information to the genome." HeKS, see my comment at 919. And what would be a "significant amount of novel functional information"? How would you determine/calculate/measure it? Where should the line be drawn between significant and non-significant, and why? I'm curious as to how you would answer this question: Does a person born with two heads have a significant (or any) amount of novel functional information in their genome? Pachyaena
CharlieM said: "Pachyaena it is you who is making unwarrented assumptions about the designer and about those that believe in an omnipotent, omniscient, omnipresent, infinite, perfect, supernatural-designer-creator-god. You are assuming that everything that has ever existed has been designed by this being. You assume that God and the designer are one and the same." See my response to Box at 956. "Put it this way, ask any of these believers who designed the synthetic genome at the Craig Ventner Institute. How many of them do you think will say, “God did”? Do we attribute the creation of Michaelangelo’s “David” to God? What about nuclear weapons, did God design them, or did he allow humans the freedom to be able to design them? What do you think and what do you think believers in a creator God would say?" I think that "believers in a creator God" will say a lot of really irrelevant things in their attempts to mask their beliefs and agenda, including irrelevant things about synthetic genomes, statues, and nuclear bombs. Pachyaena
Keith,
Now let’s talk about the bind that HeKS has gotten himself into. He claimed:
The problem is that the type of “unguided evolution” we observe is not one that is observed to add novel functional information to the genome.
Now he has to argue that no gene duplication event ever leads to “novel functional information” without intelligent guidance — or else he has to argue that such events don’t really count as “novel functional information”.
Uh, no I don't. If you actually took in the totality of the context of my comments on this issue you would notice that I have described what we observe as being the overwhelming trend and the kinds of things we generally see. I haven't claimed it's impossible that any such things could ever happen, though I don't find your linked article to be a valid counter-example of "unguided evolution" producing a significant amount of novel functional information to the genome. HeKS
Box said: "The point is to make as few unsupported assumptions about the designer as possible, because unsupported assumptions are, well, unsupported." Then you IDers should stop making unsupported assumptions, right? "For one, Keith makes the unsupported assumption that the designer can do anything; trillions of options are available et cetera; IOW that the designer is (just about) omnipotent." There you go again putting limits on 'the designer'. Why are you assuming that 'the designer' isn't or can't be omnipotent, especially since most IDers (including the ones who founded and are 'leading' the 'ID movement') believe (assume) that the allegedly omnipotent, omniscient, omnipresent, infinite, perfect, imaginary (assumed) Abrahamic god is 'the designer'? Ultimately it doesn't matter which imaginary (assumed) supernatural-designer-creator-god you IDers believe in (assume) because you're still promoting an assumed supernatural-designer-creator-god whether you admit or not. "And we simply don’t know that." Tell that to all of your fellow IDers who believe that they do "know". "ID doesn’t make such assumptions about the designer. ID is about design detection – not to be equated with the believe in an Abramic God." Tell that to Dembski, Meyer, West, Ahmanson, Luskin, Phillip Johnson, Gauger, Axe, Behe, kairosfocus, bornagain77, Joe G, Egnor, WL Craig, McLatchie, Kenyon, O'leary, Barry Arrington, and all the other IDers who make tons of unsupported assumptions about 'the designer' and who believe (assume) and claim that 'the designer' is the imaginary (assumed) Abrahamic god. "So, in the piece you quoted, I was informing Keith, that he made unsupported assumptions about the designer." Keith's assumptions are certainly no less supported than yours are and since most or all IDers believe in and promote an assumed, omnipotent, omniscient, omnipresent, infinite, perfect supernatural-designer-creator-god, Keith's assumptions and points are very reasonable. "For all we know the designer is an alien with only one option. We have no way of knowing." Oh come on. That "alien" schtick is old and lame. Who or what designed-created the "alien" and why are you assuming that the "alien" had/has only one option? Look, the bottom line is that you IDers are the ones pushing 'intelligent design' which HAS TO INCLUDE 'the intelligent designer'. You're the ones who have to support your ID claims (assumptions). Pachyaena
Keith,
You wrote:
The problem is that the type of “unguided evolution” we observe is not one that is observed to add novel functional information to the genome.
I responded:
HeKS, You’re not keeping up with the science: Gene Genesis: Scientists Observe New Genes Evolving from Mutated Copies Can you defend your claim, or do you concede your error?
Believe it or not, Keith, I do have other things to do in life other than responding to you. I've been trying to get you to address any of my arguments for almost 3 weeks. Finally you respond to a sentence with a link and 5 hours later you're repeating it and insisting I defend myself or concede my error. Get over yourself. Moving on... First of all, my full statement was:
The problem is that the type of “unguided evolution” we observe is not one that is observed to add novel functional information to the genome. It slightly alters and degrades genetic information, and it breaks existing functions or sometimes fixes functions that had previously been broken by simple point mutations, but we do not see it adding brand new complex (in the sense of “many well-matched parts”) functionality that didn’t exist before.
I also said:
We do not observe mutations adding up to produce novel complex functionality; not even when we’re the ones instigating the mutations through extensive mutagenesis experiments. Generally, the best we can hope for is that some regulatory switch will get thrown to allow an organism to do in one environment or context something that it already does in another environment or context.
As I've said a few times now, this is the overwhelming trend.
...the kinds of microevolutionary changes that are seen (overwhelmingly degrading genetic information and/or narrowing genetic variability; breaking or blunting existing biological function for a net fitness gain)
These are the kinds of things we overwhelmingly see under realistic conditions, without eliminating the possibility that every now and then something interesting or unlikely could happen. That said, when I clicked on your link and read the article I recalled Behe writing about this when it happened a few years ago. By the time I came back here Box had already beat me to the punch in linking to Behe's comments. I'm not sure how this is supposed to be indicative of what unguided evolution is supposed to be able to typically do under realistic conditions. It is indicative of what scientists are able to do when they start with ideal initial conditions and then use their experimentally derived knowledge to remove obstacles, prevent failure and ensure continued favorable circumstances at key steps to produce exactly what it is they were intending. Are you really trying to say that you think nature could be expected to routinely jump through these kinds of hoops? Turning to a more realistic scenario, Gauger et al published a 2010 article called, Reductive Evolution Can Prevent Populations from Taking Simple Adaptive Paths to High Fitness. Here's the abstract:
New functions requiring multiple mutations are thought to be evolutionarily feasible if they can be achieved by means of adaptive paths-successions of simple adaptations each involving a single mutation. The presence or absence of these adaptive paths to new function therefore constrains what can evolve. But since emerging functions may require costly over-expression to improve fitness, it is also possible for reductive (i.e., cost-cutting) mutations that eliminate over-expression to be adaptive. Consequently, the relative abundance of these kinds of adaptive paths--constructive paths leading to new function versus reductive paths that increase metabolic efficiency--is an important evolutionary constraint. To study the impact of this constraint, we observed the paths actually taken during long-term laboratory evolution of an Escherichia coli strain carrying a doubly mutated trpA gene. The presence of these two mutations prevents tryptophan biosynthesis. One of the mutations is partially inactivating, while the other is fully inactivating, thus permitting a two-step adaptive path to full tryptophan biosynthesis. Despite the theoretical existence of this short adaptive path to high fitness, multiple independent lines grown in tryptophan-limiting liquid culture failed to take it. Instead, cells consistently acquired mutations that reduced expression of the double-mutant trpA gene. Our results show that competition between reductive and constructive paths may significantly decrease the likelihood that a particular constructive path will be taken. This finding has particular significance for models of gene recruitment, since weak new functions are likely to require costly over-expression in order to improve fitness. If reductive, cost-cutting mutations are more abundant than mutations that convert or improve function, recruitment may be unlikely even in cases where a short adaptive path to a new function exists.
Furthermore, is this the type of thing that you think can be extrapolated to account even for complex molecular machines, much less major body plan changes? BTW, I don't expect I'll be around tomorrow so I might not have a chance to read anything further till sometime on Monday. P.S. I just saw your response to Box. Your comment, "What’s next? Will Behe be complaining about the use of Petri dishes in experiments?" seems highly absurd. You seriously think the multiple manipulations they made to the conditions of the experiment are comparable the use of Petri dishes? If so, why don't you email Mike Behe and tell him so? HeKS
Keith #952, Unfortunately you have missed the point of Behe's rebuttal. Behe has no complaints about the experiment an sich, but rejects the notion that it relates to unguided evolution. In fact Behe shows that Näsvall's experiment has nothing to do with unguided evolution. In Behe's own words:
- They deleted an enzyme that previous work showed could likely be replaced. - They added the necessary nutrient histidine because previous work showed that mutations conferring an ability to make tryptophan destroyed the ability to make histidine. - The added histidine would have shut off production of the protein, so they removed the genetic control element to keep it in production. - Later, once they found mutations to produce tryptophan, they removed histidine from the medium to encourage the production of mutations restoring histidine synthesis. Roll the ball to the left to avoid one obstacle, roll it backward to avoid another, turn the maze over to drop the ball into the next corridor. . . . Needless to say, this ain't how unaided nature works -- unless nature is guiding events toward a goal.
Box
Now let's talk about the bind that HeKS has gotten himself into. He claimed:
The problem is that the type of “unguided evolution” we observe is not one that is observed to add novel functional information to the genome.
Now he has to argue that no gene duplication event ever leads to "novel functional information" without intelligent guidance -- or else he has to argue that such events don't really count as "novel functional information". Good luck to him. Meanwhile, the Näsvall experiment demonstrates the very thing that HeKS says can't happen. Will he argue that the Designer had his fingers in the Näsvall experiment? Stay tuned. keith s
Box,
Look up and check out #949 for Behe’s rebuttal.
You forgot to put quote marks around "rebuttal". Behe's response is absurd. Näsvall et al were testing their IAD (innovation-amplification-divergence) model of gene duplication, so of course they set up the relevant conditions to see if the model's predictions would be borne out. They were. That's how it works in experimental science. You artificially set up the conditions, and then you observe what happens to see if your model is correct. Your results then apply to natural scenarios in which those conditions hold. Bifunctional genes do occur in nature, as does selective pressure for the weaker function, so what is Behe complaining about? What's next? Will Behe be complaining about the use of Petri dishes in experiments? keith s
Keith #950, Look up and check out #949 for Behe's rebuttal. Box
HeKS #945, You're good at a) complaining about being ignored, like StephenB and vividbleau, and b) wearing out scroll wheels, like KF and Spamagain77, ...but what readers would like to know is whether you can defend your position. You wrote:
The problem is that the type of “unguided evolution” we observe is not one that is observed to add novel functional information to the genome.
I responded:
HeKS, You’re not keeping up with the science: Gene Genesis: Scientists Observe New Genes Evolving from Mutated Copies
Can you defend your claim, or do you concede your error? keith s
Vivid, How about UT (unguided typing) predicts skruytilwe5yto.vr.aircgu'vn5e9? BTW in #942 Keith links to a 2012 article by Nasvall et al., with the outrageous title "Gene Genesis: Scientists Observe New Genes Evolving from Mutated Copies", which has been rebutted by Behe in the same year. Box
vividbleau #947, If you can't tell the difference between the process of unguided evolution and the theory of unguided evolution, this thread is going to be a tough slog for you. By the way, your comment is very Mung-like. Mung, from 2012:
Unguided evolution (whatever that is) doesn’t predict anything. If it did it wouldn’t be unguided.
You two make a good pair. keith s
Box
Nope, UE doesn’t even predict
This is so obvious that one wonders how Keith cannot see how ridiculous it is to assert such a thing. Just substitute something else after the unguided part in place of evolution and its so easy to see. Example UM ( unguided missiles) predicts their target. Vivid vividbleau
Keith: UE predicts an ONH ...
Nope, UE doesn't even predict / produce one single protein. Box
Keith,
You’d have a much better chance of getting responses to all your points if you weren’t such a windbag. Seriously, take a look at the length of this comment. That isn’t unusual for you. This is what usually happens: 1. I start responding to one of your epic comments. 2. Out of pity for the readers, I respond to just two or three points and then end the comment. 3. I start working on another reply to you, but then you or someone else responds to my initial reply, I end up responding back, and a discussion begins. 4. I get caught up in the new discussion, carrying on an actual conversation, and I don’t get back to your original comment. 5. Some time later you complain that I’m ignoring your points, when you could simply bring them up again.
Ohhhh. Now it all makes sense. It was all for the sake of the poor, poor readers. So that's why you would pick out a single sentence from one of my comments that was leading into a larger point, then make some claim about the issue that I had already addressed in the very comment you were quoting form, in the immediately following sentences, and then ask me if I had anything to say on the subject. Addressing what I'd actually said would make the poor readers read too much. And that's why you would isolate sentences to misrepresent, provide "rebuttals" to your misrepresentations, and then ridicule me for making some argument I never made. Gotta make sure those readers aren't bored. And that's why you would raise an issue but when I responded you would again choose the most convenient sentence to isolate and misrepresent and then change the subject to Rain Fairies. The readers need entertainment and just want to hear more about Rain Fairies. And that's why you kept forgetting where to find the comments I made in the OPs, which I kept referring you back to. It was because the OPs were so hard to find, and scrolling was such hard work. And anyway, the readers don't want to dwell on the past and the OP is so 900+ comments ago. Well, the readers, many of whom happen to be significant contributors to this thread, have complained about your evasiveness, misrepresentations and choice to completely ignore my points (and theirs), but not about the length of my comments (which are actually talking about the issues rather than simply repeating slogans), so perhaps you should just assume that the readers can handle the length. Case in point... Keith to HeKS:
Readers ... want to know whether you can refute my argument
Phinehas to Keith:
What argument?! When HeKS addressed your argument in the OP, you never responded to his points. Instead, you insisted he limit himself to a specific point [i.e. Rain Fairies]. And that he only respond in a specific way. So he went ahead and dismantled your Rain Fairy tripe anyway. And you’ve been unresponsive. Now you are accusing him of lacking substance in pointing out your unresponsivenss. What exactly is he supposed to be arguing against at this point?
And more recently from StephenB:
KeithsS is now asking HeKS to abbreviate his counterarguments, not realizing that their primary function is to cut through (and sift through) a tangled mess of disconnected themes, illogical arguments, unsubstantiated claims, shameless misrepresentations, and gratuitous insults. In such a confused communicative environment, brought on by Keiths’s unbridled sophistry, HeKS can hardly be expected to provide an abbreviated response. Somehow, KeithS always seems to get it wrong. The things that can and should be simplified, he makes as complex as possible; the things that require intellectual distinctions and nuances, he oversimplifies to the point of obscenity. Thus, he refuses to unify his own presentation, which ought to be expected, but he asks others to unify his disunity, which borders on the impossible.
Also, when you repeatedly isolate and misrepresent portions of my comments and then say you don't know how you misrepresented them, you are basically telling me that I need to explain everything, in extreme detail, just so you can grasp the actual point that was made. Of course, your response is then to complain that I've used too many words. Instead of blaming your poor performance on the length of my comments, why don't you just admit that you're not looking for a real discussion on your argument and that you're simply here to repeat your slogans? I'm used to having serious discussions with people who care more about addressing issues than keeping things brief, and about making an honest effort not to misrepresent the other side's arguments. You, clearly, are not such a person. HeKS
Keith: do you believe that an omnipotent designer is logically impossible?
There are some problems with omnipotence, but let's say that an extremely powerful designer is possible. But also a very modest designer with very limited options is possible. Or a designer with very compelling reasons to choose for a certain option.
Keith: If not, then all possibilities are necessarily still in play.
Which one? There is no warrant whatsoever to assume an omnipotent (or extremely powerful) designer (edited: with no bias towards the ordering of life) and not another.
Keith: To rule any of them out would be to make an unwarranted assumption.
If you don't unwarrantably assume an omnipotent designer and all the possibilities available to her, then you don't have to rule them out. First you assume trillions of possibilities for an omnipotent designer without warrant. Second you refuse to rule them out because that would be unwarranted! You are a funny guy. Box
Box #941, We know that there are trillions of ways for two 30-taxa cladograms to mismatch. If you specify any particular mismatching pair of cladograms, then I -- a mere human -- can assign traits in a way that will produce that particular mismatch. If I can do that, then why do you doubt that it's possible for a designer? Second, do you believe that an omnipotent designer is logically impossible? If not, then all possibilities are necessarily still in play. To rule any of them out would be to make an unwarranted assumption. I explained it to William:
You have no observations of your purported designer to fall back on, so you can’t rule out any of the possibilities. It’s the principle of indifference: you can’t rule any possibilities out, so you can’t assign them a probability of zero; you can’t be certain of any of the possibilities either, so you can’t assign a probability of one to any of them. What’s left? You have to assign nonzero probabilities. But not just any nonzero probabilities. They have to be equal nonzero probabilities, because otherwise you are favoring some possibilities over others, with no justification. It’s both common sense and standard statistical practice. I think the only reason you have trouble with it is that you don’t like the implications it has for ID. Be brave, William.
And last, don't forget that my argument doesn't depend on the PoI, as I explained to Phinehas:
Phinehas, The fact that unguided evolution predicts the ONH out of trillions of possibilities is enough by itself to give UE a huge advantage over ID. That step does not require the PoI. All the PoI did was to make the advantage even more lopsided by showing that ID predicted a non-ONH pattern with 99.99…% probability. With the PoI, we have:
1. UE predicts an ONH out of trillions of possibilities, and the prediction is spectacularly confirmed. 2. ID predicts a non-ONH with 99.99…% probability out of trillions of possibilities. The prediction fails. UE wins by an enormous margin.
Without the PoI, we have:
1. UE predicts an ONH out of trillions of possibilities, and the prediction is spectacularly confirmed. 2. ID lacks a probability distribution and cannot make a prediction. UE wins by an enormous margin.
keith s
HeKS #913:
The problem is that the type of “unguided evolution” we observe is not one that is observed to add novel functional information to the genome.
HeKS, You're not keeping up with the science: Gene Genesis: Scientists Observe New Genes Evolving from Mutated Copies keith s
Keith #938: How many times will you repeat this mistake?
It's not a mistake. It doesn't matter whether you assume trillions of options available to the designer or assume trillions of possible designers. Those are still unwarranted assumptions, whether you understand that or not. The simple truth is that we don't know if there are trillions of options available to the designer. And we don't know if there are trillions of possible designers. Even Bob and Betty won't help you there. Box
For the zillionth time, KF #924 brings up the Abu 6500 C3 fishing reel. Yet he never asks the obvious question:
It’s interesting that KF’s preferred example of design — the Abu 6500 C3 fishing reel, with which he bores us to death — is full of gears, yet only one case of gearing has ever been found in nature. Did God the Designer finally get around to taking a mechanical engineering course before designing Issus coleoptratus?
keith s
StephenB, Good. It looks like you are moving toward making an actual counterargument. You wrote:
Further, “the evidence” is conspicuously incomplete. Why do ONH’s qualify as evidence while information is not even given a mention.
Information is produced by natural processes all the time. The production of information is therefore not a differentiator between intelligent and unintelligent causes.
The latter is more significant than the former. The mere existence of information renders the whole argument nonsensical.
Do go on. keith s
Box:
The point is to make as few unsupported assumptions about the designer as possible, because unsupported assumptions are, well, unsupported. For one, Keith makes the unsupported assumption that the designer can do anything; trillions of options are available et cetera; IOW that the designer is (just about) omnipotent.
How many times will you repeat this mistake? I am not assuming that the designer is omnipotent. Likewise, my Bob and Betty example does not assume that the perpetrator prefers traveling by both train and plane. The probability distributions represent more than one possible designer and more than one possible perpetrator. Equal probabilities do not signal indifference, as I've already explained, and by the same reasoning they do not signal omnipotence. keith s
Sorry for my grammer in my last post. As its too late to edit it I'll repost the sentence that I messed up: Put it this way, ask any of these believers, "Who designed the synthetic genome at the Craig Ventner Institute?" CharlieM
Box
StephenB, VJTorley offered this summary of Keith’s argument, in the “Why KeithS’s bomb is a damp squib” thread: 1. We observe objective nested hierarchies (ONH) 2. Unguided evolution explains ONH 3. A designer explains ONH, but also a trillion alternatives. 4. Both unguided evolution and a designer are capable of causing ONH. Conclusion: Unguided evolution is a trillion times better at explaining ONH.
Yes, I know. Let's explore that summary, which belongs to VJ, not to Keiths. #1 is the only point that makes sense. It is based on observational evidence. #2 is an unsupported claim characterized as a fact. There is no reason to believe that unguided evolution can produce an ONH, nor is there any evidence for it. #3 is an unsupported claim characterized as a fact. Even if it was true, it wouldn't make sense. If A and B both fit the facts, then they both fit. One cannot "fit" a trillion times "better" than another. It either fits or it doesn't. Keiths is mixing the qualitative (better) with the quantitative (measurement). #4 is an unsupported claim characterized as a fact. It depends on #2, which is also unsupported. The "conclusion" depends solely on unsupported claims, is totally circular, (UE can produce ONH, therefore, UE can produce OHN), and conflates quantity with quality (fits the facts "better." Further, "the evidence" is conspicuously incomplete. Why do ONH's qualify as evidence while information is not even given a mention. The latter is more significant than the former. The mere existence of information renders the whole argument nonsensical. Only self-serving evidence has been allowed to enter the picture. Information is "trillions and trillions" of times harder to produce than an ONH. (I am being a little flippant here with my Keith-like admixture of quality and quantity, but you get the drift) That is why I asked KeithS to provide his own summary and not rely on VJ to do it for him. StephenB
Pachyaena at #933:
Box, you’re putting limits on ‘the designer’. For anyone who believes in the Abramic, allegedly omnipotent, omniscient, omnipresent, infinite, perfect, supernatural-designer-creator-god (or the like), that’s a no-no.
Pachyaena it is you who is making unwarrented assumptions about the designer and about those that believe in an omnipotent, omniscient, omnipresent, infinite, perfect, supernatural-designer-creator-god. You are assuming that everything that has ever existed has been designed by this being. You assume that God and the designer are one and the same. Put it this way, ask any of these believers who designed the synthetic genome at the Craig Ventner Institute. How many of them do you think will say, "God did"? Do we attribute the creation of Michaelangelo's "David" to God? What about nuclear weapons, did God design them, or did he allow humans the freedom to be able to design them? What do you think and what do you think believers in a creator God would say? CharlieM
Pachyaena #933, The point is to make as few unsupported assumptions about the designer as possible, because unsupported assumptions are, well, unsupported. For one, Keith makes the unsupported assumption that the designer can do anything; trillions of options are available et cetera; IOW that the designer is (just about) omnipotent. And we simply don't know that. ID doesn't make such assumptions about the designer. ID is about design detection - not to be equated with the believe in an Abramic God. So, in the piece you quoted, I was informing Keith, that he made unsupported assumptions about the designer. For all we know the designer is an alien with only one option. We have no way of knowing. I'm telling you all this, because your post #933 gave me the impression that you interpreted it very differently. Box
Box said: "Keith is equivocating between “what is imaginable” and “what is possible”. Keith’s failure of logic here is that the “possibilities” he refers to exist solely as imagined variant arrangements of the evidence and not on any known capacity of the designer to implement such arrangements. In order to “not rule out” any of the imagined arrangements keith must first show his imagined arrangements are all possible arrangements the designer could have actually instantiated in the first place. Except Keith has no basis for such a demonstration because, as he said, he knows absolutely nothing about the designer. Because they are imaginable arrangements doesn’t mean they are actual possibilities available for instantiation to the designer. Keith has confused arrangements he can imagine with arrangements a designer could actually, possibly instantiate." Box, you're putting limits on 'the designer'. For anyone who believes in the Abramic, allegedly omnipotent, omniscient, omnipresent, infinite, perfect, supernatural-designer-creator-god (or the like), that's a no-no. When it comes to supernatural-designer-creator-god(s), just because they are imaginable, that doesn’t mean they are actual possibilities and it doesn't mean that any exist (I can easily imagine lots of things that any sane person would agree are impossible and don't exist). When anyone claims that a certain supernatural-designer-creator-god exists and that it's the only one, they can believe that if they like but if they want science to pay any attention and especially if they want science to accept it they're going to have to support their claim 'in the teeth' (Hi KF) of all other possibilities. And as Keith has pointed out, if he doesn't know anything about 'the designer', including its capabilities, neither do any of you or anyone else. Pachyaena
StephenB and other IDers, do you accept that weather is due to or the result of (take your pick) unguided forces, events, actions/interactions, laws, or processes (take your pick)?
I see no reason to challenge that view. William J Murray
StephenB and other IDers, do you accept that weather is due to or the result of (take your pick) unguided forces, events, actions/interactions, laws, or processes (take your pick)? ETA: I want to point out that the main focus of my question is the "unguided" part. Pachyaena
The ONH is precisely what UE predicts,
That is a flat out lie and I don't care if what I said bothers HEKs. That you people are not forcing keith s to substantiate his claim by producing a computer program that demonstrates unguided processes can produce an ONH proves that you don't know how to refute an argument. Good luck with that Joe
Gordon, setting aside your unsubstantiated, irrelevant, endless drivel about FSCO/I, fishing reels, nodes-arcs networks, nanomachines of the cell (look who's being a reductionist as usual), warm salty ponds, etc., for the moment, I want to point out some things about your drumbeat repetitive, character attacking, motive mongering, contemptuously dismissive, ideologically driven, disrespectful, factional, accusatory, slanderous (actually libelous), emotion-laden, fundagelical-theocratic worldview based intimidatory Marxist Agit-Prop Alinskyite tactics and rants that you lead out to strawmen and red herrings soaked in oily, incendiary ad hominems set ablaze to cloud and poison the atmosphere in the teeth of correction (Whew!): You are what you condemn, and then some, even though you zealously claim to have 'God grounded', is/ought, impeccable, etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., morals. Your ridiculous whining about "outing" is apparently because I addressed you in a previous comment by your first name. Your name, Gordon E. Mullings, and a lot more about you is easily available by clicking on your kairosfocus username and then clicking on some of your links to other pages of yours on your own blog(s). Your full name and other information is also easily available by doing an internet search of your kairosfocus username. You publicly provide your real name, your email address, where you live, and lots of other information about yourself and your family, and some of it you provide on this very blog, yet you flip out and make up lame, dishonest stories about email spam and security/privacy when someone addresses you by your real name (even just your first name). I've seen you claim many times that you, your wife, and your "minor children" have been threatened, held hostage, stalked, etc., yet you never provide any evidence to support those claims, even though you've been asked multiple times to do so. I'm calling your bluff: put up or shut up and retract and apologize. Pachyaena
HeKS @ 913: What an epic exposé! I thought I was patient, but I humbly bow to the master. William J Murray
Also, after thinking about what you said in #925, Box; unguided evolution cannot explain why features such as the pentadactyl limb is so persistent in vertebrates. CharlieM
StephenB, VJTorley offered this summary of Keith's argument, in the "Why KeithS’s bomb is a damp squib" thread:
1. We observe objective nested hierarchies (ONH) 2. Unguided evolution explains ONH 3. A designer explains ONH, but also a trillion alternatives. 4. Both unguided evolution and a designer are capable of causing ONH. Conclusion: Unguided evolution is a trillion times better at explaining ONH.
Box
CharlieM,
CharlieM #920: Goethe proposed that the various species that inhabit the earth are an expression of an archetypal form. If this is indeed the case then an ONH is just what we would expect to see. Each form is guided by the archetype and expresses it as much as it is able. Each form is nested within the type.
Indeed, we should expect to see an ONH if life develops guided by archetypal form. And we should not expect to see ONH when life develops by a Darwinian process. From the article, referenced by CharlieM:
If organisms, as Darwin’s work suggested, go through more or less continuous change, with new species arising out of old ones, how could any species be thought to possess a fixed, given nature? Where, along the trajectory of change, would we find that nature?
As stated before, in order to get to an ONH a Darwinian explanation needs extinction with chirurgical accuracy to sculpt the ONH pattern out an ocean of innumerable transitional forms. Box
P: I came by a moment, I simply note that if you and too many others cannot acknowledge the empirically obvious FSCO/I evident in the wiring diagram of an Abu 6500 C3 reel, that speaks volumes on the no concessions policy driven by writing conclusions first through a priori commitments linked to Lewontinian a priori materialism or fellow traveller positions. (And BTW, beaver dams adapted to stream flow conditions per engineering principles such as arch dam designs, are functionally specific complex organisation, with the associated implicit or latent information emerging from doing a nodes-arcs analysis . . . reverse engineering.) The ideologically controlled, worldviews driven zero concession attitude in turn inadvertently indicates the significance of FSCO/I in metabolic networks, D/RNA, nanomachines of the cell such as Ribosomes, ATP Synthase, Flagella etc etc. Where, it remains so that, on trillions of cases, FSCO/I is routinely and ONLY observed to be produced by intelligently directed configuration, i.e. design. Where too another favourite objection, alleged lack of quantifiability, falls to the simple point that a nodes-arcs network is reducible to a structured chain of y/n q's, yielding a bit value for information content. A commonplace acknowledged by Orgel in the context of OOL and implied by Wicken, some forty years past. KF PS: Onlookers should note that the two years standing challenge and essay invitation to warrant on observed causal adequacy, evolutionary materialist theorising on the tree of life, from root in OOL to major body plan branches and so forth, still stands without serious answer. Where, an adequate answer would not only shut down UD, but would devastate design theory. Where also, the physics and chemistry of warm salty ponds or volcano vents undersea or comet cores etc, actually confront scenarios that try to get to cell based life and its FSCO/I by blind chance and mechanical necessity, especially through the familiar thermodynamic challenge of sparse needle in haystack search. Also, there is no good observational evidence of a vast interconnected continent of body plans incrementally and smoothly connected back to a common ancestral form, where also FSCO/I precisely because of requisites of co-ordinated arrangement, fitting/coupling together and interaction to achieve result naturally comes in islands in very large config spaces. That background fact should serve to give context to the use of unsubstantiated dismissive talking points, such as above. (Note, how the latest round was triggered by my linking of refutations of strawman caricature distortions of the design inference process through loaded false analogies such as rain fairies and planet-pushing angels, cf 909 - 10 above.) PPS: Beyond this, I must shake my head then -- pardon HeKS -- speak just once for record. I remind you, P, that I have long since made a simple request in interests of email etc protection/security, which you and to many others seem insistent on ignoring through zeal to indulge in "outing" behaviour (itself an intimidatory Agit-Prop tactic). Where similar outing tactics carried out in the circle of UD's objectors have included implicit threats against uninvolved family including minor children. That level of insistently disrespectful factional behaviour in the teeth of repeated request, now multiplied by your jumping to conclusions and making dismissive remarks about a matter that -- as it deals with a tort in a British law context -- is not in the media even here, speaks sad volumes. kairosfocus
vividbleau to Heks:
You should really peruse the thread Keith refers to in 908. You were not around then. Anyway you will see as it relates to Keith the tactics are the same then the same now.
Yes, the tactics are to make good arguments, expose the many faults of ID, and to continue telling the truth even in the face of banning threats. We'll see if it gets me banned this time. So far, so good. keith s
vividbleau, For me, one of the fun things about that thread was using the possible truth of theism to demonstrate the impossibility of absolute certainty. Theists tend to be unaware of this consequence of theism. keith s
KeithS to HeKS
Other people seem to get it. Their comments are fairly short and to the point. Why can’t you do that?
This is more than a little ironic. It takes double standards to a new level. On the one hand, I asked KeithS to summarize his argument in a paragraph not because I don't understand it, but because I want him to understand how incoherent it is, and the best way for him to grasp the point is by trying to make it cohere. Once he tries to summarize it, he will immediately come to understand that it can't be summarized because it doesn't hang together. Yet KeithS balks at the prospect of trying to give an account of his nonsensical and self serving formulations. That is why he despises sharped-edged questions. On the other hand, KeithsS is now asking HeKS to abbreviate his counterarguments, not realizing that their primary function is to cut through (and sift through) a tangled mess of disconnected themes, illogical arguments, unsubstantiated claims, shameless misrepresentations, and gratuitous insults. In such a confused communicative environment, brought on by Keiths's unbridled sophistry, HeKS can hardly be expected to provide an abbreviated response. Somehow, KeithS always seems to get it wrong. The things that can and should be simplified, he makes as complex as possible; the things that require intellectual distinctions and nuances, he oversimplifies to the point of obscenity. Thus, he refuses to unify his own presentation, which ought to be expected, but he asks others to unify his disunity, which borders on the impossible. StephenB
Well Keith, its obvious that you aren't going to answer my question about ONHs in individual development. But to answer your questions from #810, as you seem keen to know where I am coming from I will try to give you an understanding of my position, and in this I speak for myself only. I am not part of any group or organisation on whose behalf I speak. I view things from a holistic perspective and I believe that the whole is reflected in the parts. The unfolding of life as a whole can in some respects be seen in the development of a single organism. The human individual begins as a single cell and in normal development becomes a self-conscious rational being. Compare this to life as a whole. As far as we can tell, life on earth begins in the same way and has now reached the stage where humans have emerged as self-conscious, rational beings. The development of the individual is an emergence of consciousness and the unfolding of life on earth is an evolution of consciousness. You say that guided processes are extremely unlikely to produce an ONH but, contrary to what you believe, that is exactly what we observe in the development of a single organism, (which, you agree, is guided). (HeKS has also given examples of ONHs being produced by human guidance). Goethe proposed that the various species that inhabit the earth are an expression of an archetypal form. If this is indeed the case then an ONH is just what we would expect to see. Each form is guided by the archetype and expresses it as much as it is able. Each form is nested within the type. Please do not think of the archetype as a static, fixed form. Think of it more like a movie than a painting. Please read the short article, "Rebirth of the Type" from http://natureinstitute.org/pub/ic/ic30/riegner-on-typology.pdf Below I have quoted from the article:
The plasticity and dynamism of the Goethean type are well suited to the relationships we see between groups of organisms. For example, when we look at the cat family (Felidae), we recognize in each of the thirty seven living species “the lawful integration of organic features that constitute the expression of the dynamic type ... As disparate as are a tiger, a mountain lion, and an ocelot, for example, they are but variations on a theme, the One form expressed in the many.” And that form in turn can be seen as one of many forms in the group, Carnivora (wolves, badgers, bears, and so on), which has its own recognizable type of which cats are a subtype. Similarly again with the Carnivora in relation to the still larger group, Mammalia ...until one reaches the Goethean notion of the ur-animal, or single type that comes to expression in all animal forms. Reverting to the plant leaf series: just as the unity of the series along the stem of one plant is just one manifestation of the larger unity of the species (a unity that comes to expression differently in different habitats), so, too, the species is one dynamic manifestation of a broader type and the nesting of subtypes within higher types can in this way continue indefinitely
In my opinion what is written above gives a plausible explanation as to why life appears to be designed the way it is. Asking who of what the designer/s is/are is a legitimate and very worthwhile question, but it is separate and follows on from what is given above. We study the designs from which we get a glimpse of the wisdom of the designer/s. CharlieM
HeKS said: "Furthermore, fitness increases, and morphological changes in general, that are fixed by natural selection and drift result from blunting or breaking existing biological function and genetic information. We do not observe mutations adding up to produce novel complex functionality; not even when we’re the ones instigating the mutations through extensive mutagenesis experiments. Generally, the best we can hope for is that some regulatory switch will get thrown to allow an organism to do in one environment or context something that it already does in another environment or context. And where we observe microevolution producing ONH’s through branching descent, we observe it doing so through loss of genetic information..." Are descendants always less fit than their ancestors due to blunting or breaking existing biological function and loss of genetic information? If so, is that because of 'the fall'? HeKS, you're way out of your depth when it comes to understanding mutations, fitness, natural selection, drift, ONHs, and evolution in general. And will you please define "complex functionality", and demonstrate exactly how you would determine/calculate/measure the difference between "new complex functionality" and "existing biological function"? How complex does a function have to be to be "complex"? Where is the line drawn and why should it be drawn there? How would you determine/calculate/measure the difference between functionality and non-functionality? Where is the line drawn and why should it be drawn there? How would you define 'function'? Are 'functions' always something good or can 'functions' be something bad? In your opinion, is there and has there ever been anything in living things that doesn't have a function? Is there anything in the universe that doesn't have a function? Is there even one atom in this universe that doesn't have a function? Pachyaena
HeKS, You'd have a much better chance of getting responses to all your points if you weren't such a windbag. Seriously, take a look at the length of this comment. That isn't unusual for you. This is what usually happens: 1. I start responding to one of your epic comments. 2. Out of pity for the readers, I respond to just two or three points and then end the comment. 3. I start working on another reply to you, but then you or someone else responds to my initial reply, I end up responding back, and a discussion begins. 4. I get caught up in the new discussion, carrying on an actual conversation, and I don't get back to your original comment. 5. Some time later you complain that I'm ignoring your points, when you could simply bring them up again. It would really help the discussion if you'd limit your focus to one or a few points at a time and curb your logorrheic tendencies. We may be on different sides of the debate, but I would hope that we could at least agree that we don't want to bore the readers to death if we can help it. If you insist on these lengthy treatises, then be prepared to repeat a point if you don't get an answer the first time. Don't expect me to be constantly surveying the thread to make sure I've answered every single point buried amidst your effluvia. But better still, aim for concision. You can always clarify or add more detail later, if needed. You don't have to lay it all out in every single comment. Other people seem to get it. Their comments are fairly short and to the point. Why can't you do that? keith s
vividbleau, Actually, the reason I'm not deleting KF's comments is because the main off-topic ones happened before I asked him to keep things more on-topic and anything he has has said afterwards has been brief and largely relevant, like a few links to other posts that deal with issues relevant to Keith's argument, and not simply a clear attempt to drag the discussion completely off course into a discussion of personal beliefs and motives. On the other hand, feel free to go back and look at how much it took before I actually deleted one of Pachyaena's comments, and how many warnings I gave that he ignored, only to come back doing the same thing even more forcefully. If Pachyaena wants to pretend that he and KF have interacted with this thread in the same manner, that's his business, but in terms of my moderation choices, the reasons for them are quite clear from the record. It seems Pachyaena wants the numerous warnings I gave to him (which followed simple requests) to be counted towards KF and everyone else, so that at the first sign of the slightest comment from anyone not directly geared to the thread topic their comment should immediately be deleted. Again, it's quite clear I was never targeting such things. Pachyaena's comments were of a different sort and no number of requests and then warnings would get him to change his actions in this thread. Since I deleted one of his comments he has started to mingle in comments slightly relevant to the thread in some way amidst his insults and so I have not deleted them. However, even without the threat of deletion I would still point him to my comment #867 HeKS
Heks You should really peruse the thread Keith refers to in 908. You were not around then. Anyway you will see as it relates to Keith the tactics are the same then the same now. I expect any day now Keith will pull the ripcord and get himself banned. Vivid vividbleau
vividbleau barked: "What’s pitiful is this cheap shot." And: "Wow! Hard to believe you are this clueless. Of course he announced it and you took it as an opportunity to fire out a pitifully cheap shot." How is telling the truth a pitifully cheap shot? Phinehas said: "Why is it pitiful for HeKS to delete posts that have nothing whatsoever to do with either the OP or your argument (as is both his right and his responsibility as a moderator)?" Well, when HeKS doesn't apply the same standard to his own and other IDers' comments, that's "pitiful" (actually I'm thinking of some stronger words). Pachyaena
Pachy
Shouldn't HeKS be deleting your comments?
People actually have other things to do with their lives. Maybe he is out on a date? Maybe he is sleeping? Do you expect him to monitor every post 24 7? Sheesh. LOL I guess he is not out on a date!! Vivid vividbleau
Let's Take a Trip Down Memory Lane Keith is once again asking in #890 why he can't legitimately extrapolate microevolution to macroevolution and what the barriers are and claiming nobody ever answers him. One would think Keith is therefore interested in discussing this issue, but the facts suggest otherwise. I started trying to address this with him in my first comments to him which were ultimately headlined in the previous OP. The following is a record of what happened over the course of the comment thread to that OP, starting with my original OP comments relevant to the issue. From the previous OP:
Second, your argument assumes that this “unguided evolution”, if it exists, is of a sort that it could, at least in principle, offer some kind of possible explanation for the macroevolutionary changes that would be necessary to produce an objective nested hierarchy naturalistically, even if it would require a large degree of extrapolation. The problem is that the type of “unguided evolution” we observe is not one that is observed to add novel functional information to the genome. It slightly alters and degrades genetic information, and it breaks existing functions or sometimes fixes functions that had previously been broken by simple point mutations, but we do not see it adding brand new complex (in the sense of “many well-matched parts”) functionality that didn’t exist before. So the type of “unguided evolution” that “even the most rabid IDer/YEC” observes is not of the kind that they would have any reason to think can offer, even in principle, a possible explanation for the macroevolutionary changes needed to produce an ONH naturalistically at any point that the ONH requires a significant increase in functional genetic information. Wherever that would be necessary, any appeal to the known existence of “unguided evolution” as a basic feature of reality would not even simply be an extreme unwarranted extrapolation of the available evidence, but would actually be the misleading invocation of a process that does pretty much exactly the opposite of what we observe “unguided evolution” doing. So, if by your #3 you mean something like this: We know that there exists an unguided natural mechanism of a sort that might, at least in principle, be able to explain the significant increases in functional genetic information at particular nodes of the supposed ONH of life. Then I have to say, no, we don’t know of any such thing.
------------ Keith's response to this portion of the OP:
We know that unguided evolution produces microevolutionary ONHs, and IDers have been unable to find evidence of any barriers that could prevent microevolution from accumulating to become macroevolution.
------------ My response to Keith:
Keith, your response is so non-responsive that it’s hard to figure out what to say about it, so I guess I’ll start by drawing back in my excised points from the OP Your quote from me:
HeKS: Second, your argument assumes that this “unguided evolution”, if it exists, is of a sort that it could, at least in principle, offer some kind of possible explanation for the macroevolutionary changes that would be necessary to produce an objective nested hierarchy naturalistically, even if it would require a large degree of extrapolation.
My original point:
Second, your argument assumes that this “unguided evolution”, if it exists, is of a sort that it could, at least in principle, offer some kind of possible explanation for the macroevolutionary changes that would be necessary to produce an objective nested hierarchy naturalistically, even if it would require a large degree of extrapolation. The problem is that the type of “unguided evolution” we observe is not one that is observed to add novel functional information to the genome. It slightly alters and degrades genetic information, and it breaks existing functions or sometimes fixes functions that had previously been broken by simple point mutations, but we do not see it adding brand new complex (in the sense of “many well-matched parts”) functionality that didn’t exist before. So the type of “unguided evolution” that “even the most rabid IDer/YEC” observes is not of the kind that they would have any reason to think can offer, even in principle, a possible explanation for the macroevolutionary changes needed to produce an ONH naturalistically at any point that the ONH requires a significant increase in functional genetic information. Wherever that would be necessary, any appeal to the known existence of “unguided evolution” as a basic feature of reality would not even simply be an extreme unwarranted extrapolation of the available evidence, but would actually be the misleading invocation of a process that does pretty much exactly the opposite of what we observe “unguided evolution” doing.
You said:
If you believe that mutations are random but are retained or eliminated by selection and drift, then we are in agreement. That’s the kind of unguided evolution I am talking about.
Well, some mutations seem to happen at random. That doesn’t mean that mutations are random across the board. Some seem internally directed to respond to environmental conditions. And what are we supposed to make of it when external pressures are found to increase mutation rates and thereby give a population a better chance at survival under harsh conditions through minor changes in genes and gene regulation? A seemingly programmed response that looks designed to maximize attempts at internal solutions to external problems, though ones that are seemingly constrained within definite boundaries, is not something that argues for a lack of intelligent design governing microevolutionary processes. Furthermore, fitness increases, and morphological changes in general, that are fixed by natural selection and drift result from blunting or breaking existing biological function and genetic information. We do not observe mutations adding up to produce novel complex functionality; not even when we’re the ones instigating the mutations through extensive mutagenesis experiments. Generally, the best we can hope for is that some regulatory switch will get thrown to allow an organism to do in one environment or context something that it already does in another environment or context. And where we observe microevolution producing ONH’s through branching descent, we observe it doing so through loss of genetic information, which brings me back to another comment from the OP:
Of course, if you want to say that the ONH results from a gradual and unguided degrading of genetic information, that could work, at least to a certain point, and could be viewed as a reasonable extrapolation of the “unguided evolution” we observe. Of course, this raises the question of where the high information-content of the ancestor genome came from in the first place and we would have to account for the places in the hierarchy where a significant increase or change in functional information seems to have arisen.
So, when you say that ID proponents admit that “unguided evolution” exists, and then assert there is some need for the ID proponent to identify a barrier to prevent these from adding up to the macroevolutionary changes in the history of life, you are completely misrepresenting what ID proponents admit and getting far ahead of yourself. If necessary, we can get to discussing barriers to the formation of new body plans and body plan elements and organs and tissues, etc., but I don’t see that your argument really requires that at this point for the simple reason that you are arguing based on the claimed reasonableness of the large-scale extrapolation of microevolutionary change to macroevolutionary change, but extrapolation requires some kind of trajectory, and when we perform a larg-scale extrapolation of the trajectory of the microevolution we actually observe, a very obvious, experimentally-verified barrier presents itself: complete breakdown of biological function resulting in sterility and/or death.
------------ Keith's response? He talked about Rain Fairies, isolated the tiny portion of my comment that wasn't a discussion of initial barriers to his extrapolation, and then said the onus is on us to provide the barriers, ignoring that I had already started to provide some. ------------ My response to Keith:
Ah, now I see why you always think you win arguments: You just ignore what people say, misrepresent their arguments and claims, argue against that, then claim victory. Since I did not make the argument you decided to respond to and you did not respond to anything I actually said, is this the point where I do a little victory dance? I think I’ll forego that and just wait for you to actually address what I’ve said, though I am starting to get a little bored.
------------- Keith's response?
I’ve shown that the evidence is trillions to one against the hypothesis that there are barriers to microevolution that prevent it from accumulating into macroevolution.
In other words, Keith was completely non-responsive and refused to engage in any discussion of potential barriers because the existence of the ONH is overwhelming proof that no barriers exist ... so why even talk about it? Then, after I pointed out several times that he was ignoring my points and/or simply quoting snippets of them which he was then misrepresenting, he told me to pick just one of his arguments so we could discuss that. I responded by telling him to pick one of my arguments from the OP, since I had already picked one (opening the discussion on barriers to microevolution) but that he had responded by misrepresenting a tiny portion of my comment and then invoking Rain Fairies again. Which one of my arguments from the OP did he choose to discuss? None. He picked his Rain Fairy argument again and wanted to talk about that. I humored him, explained the problem with it in detail, and his most substantive comment in reply was:
But there is no evidence that the actual ONH is out of unguided evolution’s reach. Do you have any to offer?
In other words, after ignoring everything I initially said on the matter of barriers to macroevolution, he changed the subject to his Rain Fairy argument. But when I responded to his Rain Fairy argument he simply invoked the claim that there are no barriers to macroevolution, pretending I'd never said anything on the subject. ------------- My response:
Keith, Talking to you is like talking to a wall. You just continue to repeat assertions that I’ve addressed and to ignore questions I’ve asked about them. I’ve also already given you obvious reasons why your extrapolations of microevolution to the macroevolutionary development of complex novel systems doesn’t even get off the ground in light of the observational evidence. I’ve also addressed your claim that ID proponents admit “unguided evolution” exists and the fact that you completely misrepresent us on this and that what we actually admit doesn’t amount to a mechanism that could, even in principle, explain the introduction of novel biological systems. You have not provided a remotely substantive response to anything. You’ve only repeated nonsense and false analogies. I’ve given you plenty of opportunity to start demonstrating that there is any merit to your argument at all. You’ve chosen to ignore everything and just repeat a mantra about Rain Fairies. Evidently I have been wasting my time trying to have a substantive discussion with you.
------------- Keith's response? He claimed he had responded to my comment point-by-point and said:
Run away if you like, but be aware of how that makes you look, particularly after all your trash talk about how “utterly confused” and “obviously wrong” my argument is. You bit off more than you could chew, didn’t you?
What a rare gift he has for posturing. -------------- My response:
Bit off more than I could chew? More like ordered a steak and spent hours being asked to snack on crackers. Your point-by-point “response” consists of repeating disputed assertions without actually defending any of them or addressing any of my points or answering any of my questions. Apparently you think I’m just supposed to sit here and watch you ramble through your false analogies over and over again.
--------------- Keith's response:
No, what you’re “supposed” to do is to respond to my point-by-point rebuttal of your comment. It’s called “debate”.
--------------- My response to Keith: I started with this...
Keith, Debate requires good-faith participation by people on both sides, Keith. I haven’t seen that from you. You’ve ignored every issue I’ve raised and every question I’ve asked, then you decided the only thing you wanted to discuss was Rain Fairies, and when I humored you and addressed them you responded without offering any substantive interaction with my points. You just repeated your initial assertions without addressing anything I’ve said about them. And now that you’ve done that, I’m apparently just supposed to repeat myself yet again.
And then I responded to his point-by-point non-rebuttal repetition of his slogans. --------------- Keith's response: He claimed I used a lot of words, but not much substance, and then made the silly claim that the reason he wanted to discuss just one issue was so that I would be forced to respond to his arguments rather than hiding behind a smokescreen. ---------------- My response:
For goodness sake. Of course there wasn’t much substance in that comment. That was the whole point. You complained that I hadn’t responded to your point-for-point “response” and I was pointing out there was nothing of any substance in it for me to respond to. We’re at a place where I just have to point out to you over and over, paragraph after paragraph, that you’re either missing, ignoring or misrepresenting what I’ve said and simply repeating your own assertions without defending them or answering any questions about them. You’re giving me nothing of any substance to respond to, complaining that I don’t respond to your insubstantial nonsense and misrepresentations, and then, when I do, complaining that the result is not substantive … as though it could be.
And
I started with a substantive discussion and you just pretended like I hadn’t said anything. And now, apparently, the reason you’ve either ignored or misrepresented virtually everything I’ve said from square one, refused to answer every question I’ve asked, and have simply repeated your assertions over and over as though they’ve never been challenged is so that you could force me to deal substantively with … what exactly? Your tid-bit misrepresentations? Your unsubstantiated assertions that you refuse to either justify or defend? And this approach that you opened with, right from the start, was apparently triggered by an insubstantial comment from me just a short while ago, which was intentionally insubstantial to point out that you weren’t saying anything of substance for me to respond to. Time travel must be cool.
I then proceeded to address all his points. --------------- Keith's response:
Please — less whining and more substance. Readers don’t care how aggrieved you feel (or pretend to feel). They want to know whether you can refute my argument.
Then he choose one tiny point from my comment to pick out and comment on. --------------- At this point Phinehas astutely observed about Keith's "less whining and more substance" comment:
keiths acts as though HeKS hasn’t already responded to this exact same charge from keiths.... Note that keiths doesn’t engage HeKS’ response. He doesn’t present any sort of counter-argument. In fact, he doesn’t even deny it. He simply acts as though it never happened and recycles the accusation.
And regarding Keith's claim that readers just want to know if I can refute his argument, Phinehas even more astutely observed:
What argument?! When HeKS addressed your argument in the OP, you never responded to his points. Instead, you insisted he limit himself to a specific point. And that he only respond in a specific way. So he went ahead and dismantled your Rain Fairy tripe anyway. And you’ve been unresponsive. Now you are accusing him of lacking substance in pointing out your unresponsivenss. What exactly is he supposed to be arguing against at this point?
That represented an entire thread of 600+ comments trying to have a substantive discussion with Keith about his argument and to open the discussion of barriers to macroevolution in the OP and then several times in the comments. Then we come to the current OP, where I said the following on the subject:
In Keith’s summary of his argument, he says that even “the most rabid IDer” admits that “unguided evolution” exists, with the ultimate intention of extrapolating what ID proponents admit happens into what they say does not happen. Now, when Keith refers to “unguided evolution” here, he is referring to the relatively minor microevolutionary changes that take place within a population, but on the view of ID proponents, these are not the kind of phenomena that could, even in principle, be extrapolated to account for the macroevolutionary innovations that would be necessary to account for the full content of the alleged ONH “Tree of Life”. And in taking issue with the characterization of microevolution as “unguided”, the ID proponent is taking issue with the fact that a phrase that might be uncontroversially applied to a subset of these phenomena is, within the context of Keith’s argument, being over-generalized in a way that implicitly suggests an acceptance by ID proponents of propositions they do not actually accept, and so is a case of illegitimately stealing ground en route to the argument’s conclusion. In addition to my comments in the original OP, I expanded on them somewhat in a recent comment, which I’ll duplicate here to fill out the remainder of this post and hopefully spur further discussion. From here:
Now, when it comes to this business of proving that microevolution is unguided, I think there needs to be an understanding of what it would even mean to suggest that it is “guided”. I’m reasonably certain that the majority of people who would dispute claims that microevolution is unguided do not mean that a designer is actively, in the moment, effecting a specific microevolutionary change. Nor would they dispute that random mutations happen. Rather, they would likely dispute that all mutations are random. And they would also likely argue (as I did in the previous thread) that the constrained allowance for – and even rapid increased initiation of – mutations and general genetic and epigenetic changes are a purposeful aspect of the design of organisms to allow for diversification and adaptation (which is sometimes very rapid). If the random variation or shuffling is too large, however, it kills the organism, makes it sterile, or at the very least reduces its reproductive potential, decreasing the chances that the significant defect will be passed on or largely affect subsequent generations of a population. In other words, the argument is not that random mutations allowing microevolution look unguided but are actually being directly manipulated by some designer. Rather, the argument is that 1) the RM/NS mechanism is a constrained feature of organismal design, and that the Neo-Darwinists are looking at a design feature of a system that makes use of randomization and illegitimately extrapolating it to explain the entire system itself; and 2) that not all mutations/changes are random at all, but some are internally directed in a purposeful manner for the benefit of the organism. So, it seems to me that, from an ID perspective, saying something like, ‘even IDists admit unguided evolution exists’, is either A) a case of making a trivial claim that cannot be legitimately extrapolated from the kinds of microevolutionary changes that are seen (overwhelmingly degrading genetic information and/or narrowing genetic variability; breaking or blunting existing biological function for a net fitness gain) to the kinds of macroevolutionary innovations that are theorized (the introduction of complex, functionally-specified systems and molecular machines), or B) a case of making an unwarranted and unsubstantiated claim that the system that allows for and makes use of the RM/NS mechanism for the benefit and diversification of the organism does so by fluke, in a way that is fully unconstrained, and is itself undesigned; or C) both.
---------------- About a hundred or so comments ago I directed Keith to the current OP again on the question of whether we have reason to think the type of "unguided evolution" he invokes actually exists, which included my comments about the initial barriers to microevolutionary changes accreting into macroevolutionary ones. He responded by telling me that he had already responded to my arguments by responding to someone else's arguments. When I pointed out to him that the response he was referring to had no relation to my arguments at all, did he go and address my comments in the OP? Nope. He responded by asking me: "Do you think microevolution is guided? Did the Designer create this year’s mutant flu viruses?" Except that I'd already described in detail in the OP exactly what I thought about the issue of whether or not microevolution is guided and what that would even mean and what the implications were. But Keith didn't want to bother dealing with any of that. He just wanted it all boiled down to a simple Yes or No answer (Are you still beating your wife?) Then, of course, everything turned back to the ONH pattern, so I explained that in the field of human design most obviously relevant to life (software development), ONHs are incredibly common, being routinely produced as the result of implementing best-practice design patterns, and so clearly are not nearly so rare in human design as he thought (and made sure to repeatedly invoke) when we consider circumstances that are actually relevant. His response was to claim I was dishonestly trying to prop up ID by not giving equal weight to the fact that human designs like balls and chairs don't happen to fall into ONHs. But now Keith is saying in 890:
I keep asking IDers for evidence of a barrier that prevents microevolution from accumulating to become macroevolution, but they never provide one. The response I usually get is “you need to provide a step-by-step account of how X evolved”, which is absurd, since IDers themselves can’t meet the equivalent requirement. That is, they can’t provide a step-by-step account of how X was designed and implemented. .... Okay, then what is the barrier and what is your evidence for it? Be specific.
And yet he has completely ignored even the initial barriers I discussed in the current OP, the previous OP, comments in the previous thread, and in comments prior to the creation of the previous OP. There are even more problematic barriers than the ones I've already raised, but if he can't even interact with these basic ones and give a plausible reason for why his wild extrapolation isn't severely undermined by them (a reason that doesn't simply consist of "because the ONH exists"), there isn't even any need to draw in the more difficult issues Also, even though I personally have not asked that he provide a step-by-step account of how X evolved, his response that such a request "is absurd, since IDers themselves can’t meet the equivalent requirement" is itself rather weak, since the whole point of asking for a viable step-by-step evolutionary path (not even necessarily the "correct" one) is to demonstrate that a possible evolutionary path exists at all, since evolution has to advance in a stepwise fashion without losing fitness or function. Intelligent Design is not a mindless mechanism, so it can organize multiple parts in a coherent functional whole without having to worry about fitness problems or non-functional states during intermediate steps on the way to the whole. In any case, if Keith wants to actually discuss barriers to the extrapolation from observed microevolutionary processes to unobserved macroevolutionary ones, perhaps he could start by finally addressing my initial comments on this issue which have been gathered together here for his convenience, amidst the record of his choice to completely ignore them and change the subject every time they came up. HeKS
kairosfocus said: "I notice people speaking dismissively on situations they know nothing about; only that they wish to be contemptuously dismissive. That speaks volumes, and not to their benefit." Actually, Gordon, it speaks volumes, and not to your benefit, that you and your 'fellow traveler ilk' are contemptuously dismissive of evolution and evolutionary theory and scientific methodology even though you obviously know nothing about them. It also speaks volumes, and not to your benefit, that you're contemptuously dismissive of legitimate scientists, and of the many refutations of your claims, and of the fact that your drumbeat repetition of your fallacious talking points does not make them true. "But, obviously there must be zero concessions regarding FSCO/I." Why should there be any concessions to your dishonest, religious belief based woo? "FSCO/I" is just your conjured up thingamajig that you can't verify and can't connect to your imagined designer-creator-god in any way, shape, or form. Let's see you define "FSCO/I" in a way that actually makes sense, demonstrate that it is actually in organisms (not just in a description of organisms or their parts), calculate/measure it in whole organisms* (Hi Box), and verifiably connect said "FSCO/I" to your imagined designer-creator-god, including how, when, where, and why. After all, according to your 'fellow traveler ilk' Joe: "If someone is making a claim it is up to them to substantiate it.", and: "Bald claims are meaningless to science." *How about a fish, a bird, a frog, a whale, a clam, a sponge, a spider, an insect, an oak tree, a kelp, a coconut palm, a mushroom, a lichen, a foraminiferan, a chimpanzee, and a human, for a start? "trillions of cases in point", eh? Well then, you shouldn't have any trouble verifying and demonstrating that "FSCO/I" is actually in the things listed above and a whole bunch more, and that you can calculate/measure it and verifiably connect it to your imagined designer-creator-god. "What is critical then is the origin of FSCO/I, from OOL to origin of body plans and up to us." Whoa there, what is "critical" is that you haven't shown that "FSCO/I" is anything other than a fallacious talking point. "And, it remains the case..." Nope. "...that the only empirically warranted,..." Empirically warranted? Surely you jest. For example, you IDers strongly claim that 'historical' science is worthless and that only 'observational' science is credible (except of course when you think it's convenient to claim otherwise). You also claim that "FSCO/I" originated when life was first designed-created. Were you there at the "origin" of "FSCO/I"? Did you observe the "origin" of "FSCO/I" and did you observe your imagined designer-creator-god designing and creating "FSCO/I"? "...sparse needle in haystack search..." You've been corrected many times about your incorrect claims in regard to evolutionary "search" but you just keep on drumbeat repeating them anyway in the teeth of those corrections. "...plausible cause of..." On what do you base that alleged "plausible"? Your extremely biased, religious belief based opinion? "...FSCO/I is design." Exactly how does "design" "cause" "FSCO/I" or anything else? When an architect designs a house, does that "cause" the house? By the way, what do Picasso, Rembrandt, "FSCO/I", needles in haystacks, fishing reels, and all your other gibberish, including your character attacking, motive mongering, message dominance emotional rants, have to do with the topic of this thread? Shouldn't HeKS be deleting your comments? Pachyaena
Keiths RE 905 908 I remember it well and I would encourage onlookers to go through that thread which is over 700 posts long. They will definitely see that your bluster has not changed. I would hardly call it begging since you certainly paid a lot of attention to me since we went back and forth for 3 days until this. Vivid
Keith I cant help but notice that you have ignored me which is understandable nor have you rebutted my post # 215. Your numbered statements have no relevancy to my position which is that we can be absolutely certain that cognitive activity is present. Of course you gave the store away here Keith
"Unless we can be absolutely certain of the correctness of our cognition"
If memory serves me correctly you did reengage I will go back and look. It wasn't that I was frustrated that they banned you as I was disappointed because unlike some really good critics (RDFish) comes to mind) you were such an easy mark and I hated to see you go. I agree with Stephenb
Keiths will do anything or say anything to avoid rational scrutiny.
You did that then and your doing it now to Stephenb with the same school yard taunts you employed in the thread you alluded to. Once again I would strongly urge onlookers to go through that thread, nothing has changed. However enough of this. I do not want to derail Heks thread and as much as Keith wants a distraction I wont be the one to give it to him. Keiths you are not fooling anyone, everyone can see you are dodging Stephens questions and resorting to your personal playbook, avoiding him by your school yard bully taunts. Vivid
vividbleau
PS: This response specifically to the planet-pushing angels caricature of Newton, should also be noted: https://uncommondesc.wpengine.com/atheism/fyi-ftr-what-about-the-design-inference-explanatory-filter-vs-strawmannish-caricatures-of-how-design-inferences-are-made/ kairosfocus
F/N: FTR, the studiously ignored expose and correction of rain fairy etc strawman arguments insistently used by KS: https://uncommondesc.wpengine.com/atheism/fyi-ftr-what-about-onhs-vs-invisible-rain-fairies-salt-leprechauns-and-planet-pushing-angels-etc/ Just for those who came in late. KF kairosfocus
vividbleau, That was a good thread. It was the one where I explained to a bunch of you why absolute certainty is a myth. (That should get Andre excited.) Toward the end of the thread you kept begging me to respond to you, but then I got banned, to your frustration. :-) It was also the thread in which I pointed out Barry's hypocrisy regarding the Law of Non-Contradiction. keith s
SB: (Can you imagine how it would go if ID proponents used that excuse with KeithS–”You are way behind. Go back and read Dembski again and we will respond to your challenges when you get back. Until you prove yourself worthy, leave me alone with your stupid questions.” LOL) KeithS
That would never happen, because I’ve read Dembski and I understand him better than most of the IDers I’ve encountered. Did you see that embarrassing series of threads in which we critics educated Barry Arrington about CSI?
No, it would never happen because no ID proponent I know of is so emotionally immature or so ideologically driven that he would feel the need to use such a mindless, childish tactic. You are the only person that I know of who thinks that he should be permitted to demand an account from his adversary while claiming exemption for himself. It is not the mark of intellectual confidence. StephenB
KeithS
And Torley is clearly smarter than you. His understanding of my argument, versus your confusion, is just one example of this.
Clearly, both VJTorley and HeKS are far more intelligent that you are. I don't think that even you would question the point. So now we can use your methodology to settle the issue. Since VJTorley is smarter than you, and since he understands your argument, it follows that he can grasp your weaknesses better than you can, so you should just accept his negative verdict and move on. Also, since HeKS is also smarter than you are (by a wide margin) you should accept his verdict for the same reason. So why not retire from the thread? (Can you believe that we are having this conversation? Keith feels so bruised by my questions that he wants to start a food fight. You've got to love it.) Keiths will do anything or say anything to avoid rational scrutiny. StephenB
vividbleau, I was just thinking about you. You remember that thread a year or two ago where you were begging me to pay attention to you? StephenB reminds me of you. keith s
StephenB:
Can you imagine how it would go if ID proponents used that excuse with KeithS–”You are way behind. Go back and read Dembski again and we will respond to your challenges when you get back. Until you prove yourself worthy, leave me alone with your stupid questions."
That would never happen, because I've read Dembski and I understand him better than most of the IDers I've encountered. Did you see that embarrassing series of threads in which we critics educated Barry Arrington about CSI? And Torley is clearly smarter than you. His understanding of my argument, versus your confusion, is just one example of this. keith s
Stephenb RE 900
comoprehension
How ironic. Vivid vividbleau
Keiths
I’m ignoring you because you still haven’t caught up with the rest of us.
No, you are ignoring me because you are afraid to address my questions. (No one is interested in your perception about which ID people are the smartest or who you think is winning or losing this debate. We recognize those tactics for what they are and they bore us). We are interested only in your capacity to defend your unsubstantiated claims, and it is clear at the moment that you feel threatened by my challenge. Running away and resorting to the insult is not a credible response. The fact is that you have been presented with evidence for the barriers to macro-evolution and you simply ignored it because it doesn't fit in with your agenda. It's on the record. The fact is that you cannot defend your claim that we "know" unguided evolution exists. You made that claim, but you don't want to be held accountable. Sorry, but that is not the way life works. Sorry. The fact is that you cannot defend your claim that unguided evolution has been known to produce ONH's. Again, you may not want to be held accountable, but that is not my problem. The fact is that you cannot defend your claim that the existence of ONH's provides evidence for unguided evolution. If you can't make your case in a single paragraph, and clearly you cannot, then you don't have a case.
......When you’ve caught up,
It would seem that the person who runs away from scrutiny and cannot answer simple questions is the person who has fallen behind. Again, everyone recognizes this tactic for what it is---an evasion. (Can you imagine how it would go if ID proponents used that excuse with KeithS--"You are way behind. Go back and read Dembski again and we will respond to your challenges when you get back. Until you prove yourself worthy, leave me alone with your stupid questions." LOL) StephenB
Phinehas, Ha. I see you went back and edited your comment from this...
And yet, one of the relatively few satellites in our solar system did exactly that.
...to this:
And yet, one of the relatively few satellites in our solar system did exactly that (with the help of tidal locking, of course).
Oops, indeed. Charon didn't fall into a synchronous orbit, because the orbit wasn't synchronous until after the tidal locking happened. keith s
StephenB,
By the way, I haven’t heard from you lately.
I'm ignoring you because you still haven't caught up with the rest of us. I mentioned Vincent Torley in #840 because a) he's smarter than you; b) he's an IDer; and c) he understood my argument after reading my OP. I was hoping you'd take the hint and realize that the comoprehension problem lies entirely with you. So, again:
Read my OP. If you still don’t get it, read the OP again. If it still baffles you, ask someone (not me) for help, or read Vincent Torley’s original OP on the subject. He understood the argument without the handholding that you seem to require. Try to catch up with the rest of the class. You’re slowing us down.
When you've caught up, ask yourself if you have a counterargument. If you do, post it and I will happily respond. I will not spoon-feed you my argument, however. keith s
keiths:
No, because it’s implausible for a satellite to fall into a synchronous orbit.
Phinehas:
And yet, one of the relatively few satellites in our solar system did exactly that.
No, it didn't, as I've already explained:
Which doesn’t prove the point at all. As I already explained, Charon did not fall into a Pluto-synchronous orbit. The orbit became Pluto-synchronous afterwards due to tidal locking.
It's amusing, but also kind of bizarre, that you keep repeating the same mistakes. keith s
keiths:
How about responding to my actual argument rather than bizarre disanalogies you’ve invented involving synchronous orbits or accidentally self-parking cars?
50 First Debates syndrome strikes again. I already told you why I was using "bizarre disanalogies." So, why have you been using them? Phinehas
KeithS
Okay, then what is the barrier and what is your evidence for it? Be specific.
I recall VJTorley's recent thread that was headlined by that very name, "Barriers to macro-evolution." I also recall your reaction: You visited the thread, ignored the evidence, and refrained from saying a word about the subject---choosing to obsess over UD's moderation policy. By the way, I haven't heard from you lately. How do you “know” that unguided evolution exists? You have never answered this question except to say that all intelligent people believe it. Is that your best shot? What evidence to you have to support your claim that unguided evolution has been observed generating ONH’s. StephenB
keiths:
No, because it’s implausible for a satellite to fall into a synchronous orbit.
And yet, one of the relatively few satellites in our solar system did exactly that (with the help of tidal locking, of course). Oops. Unless you are back to believing in Planetary Angels, of course. Phinehas
Me_Think:
You don’t known the designer and his/her/it’s capabilities, so try arguing without the ‘front-loaded information’ bit.
You don’t known the designer and his/her/it’s capabilities, so why should I? I don't really feel any need to, since I'm not arguing for it in the first place. I think you are missing my point, so here it is: If information was front-loaded before the creation of the ONH, then keiths' "unguided" claim, if it is true, doesn't preclude ID. Further, ID claims that there are indeed barriers to microevolution accumulating into things like brains and consciousness and such, but ID is open to the idea that ingeniously conceived and implemented front-loaded information could overcome these barriers, so again, keiths' "unguided" argument, if true is still relatively trivial. But then keiths is a long, long, long way from demonstrating that his "unguided" argument has the slightest bit of support, let alone that it is true. Phinehas
Phinehas #891:
Why am I suddenly talking about a moon around Pluto, keiths? Wrack your memory. Why? Why? What was the context?
Take it easy, Phinehas. Your error rate shoots way up when you're flustered.
Oh, that’s right. You’d just made a ridiculous claim about “no unguided processes,” and I was pointing out that unguided processes could indeed put a satellite into synchronous orbit, and used the example of Charon to prove the point.
Which doesn't prove the point at all. As I already explained, Charon did not fall into a Pluto-synchronous orbit. The orbit became Pluto-synchronous afterwards due to tidal locking.
A satellite in synchronous orbit, whether around Pluto or the Earth, works just fine as an analogy.
No, because it's implausible for a satellite to fall into a synchronous orbit. As Wikipedia notes:
For natural satellites, which can attain a synchronous orbit only by tidally locking their parent body, it always goes in hand with synchronous rotation of the satellite. This is because the smaller body becomes tidally locked faster, and by the time a synchronous orbit is achieved, it has had a locked synchronous rotation for a long time already.
keiths:
So how is this supposed to be a problem for my argument?
Phinehas:
Because your argument would have us ruling out intelligent causes if we found a satellite in synchronous orbit around a planet that, upon further examination, revealed technology beyond our own capability to reproduce.
How is this analogous to my argument? Look, Phinehas, analogies are clearly not your thing, nor is orbital mechanics. How about responding to my actual argument rather than bizarre disanalogies you've invented involving synchronous orbits or accidentally self-parking cars? keith s
Phinehas @ 892
And even if you did, this would do nothing to demonstrate that unguided microevolution can overcome the barriers that prevent it from accumulating to become macroevolution without the help of front-loaded information
This thread is going no where, so my comment is just a note: You don't known the designer and his/her/it's capabilities, so try arguing without the 'front-loaded information' bit. Me_Think
keiths:
You are effectively making this argument: “Sure, the evidence looks exactly like it would if unguided evolution were true, but I know better. I personally have my doubts about unguided evolution, and I think there is a barrier that prevents unguided microevolution from accumulating to become macroevolution. I am so confident, so sure of this barrier that I can infer design despite the ONH evidence.”
Nope. This is a tired retread of a strawman. My actual argument is closer to this: “Sure, the evidence looks exactly like it would if branching descent with vertical inheritance were true, but so what? You've done absolutely nothing to demonstrate that this branching descent with vertical inheritance must have been unguided. And even if you did, this would do nothing to demonstrate that unguided microevolution can overcome the barriers that prevent it from accumulating to become macroevolution without the help of front-loaded information. There is absolutely nothing in your argument that undermines an ID inference in the slightest, and only your delusions are preventing you from seeing this.” Phinehas
keiths:
First you were talking about a satellite “in geosynchronous orbit above the earth”, and now you’re suddenly talking about a tidally locked moon in a Pluto-synchronous orbit above Pluto. I guess that first analogy didn’t work out too well for you.
And now you're back to the short-term memory problems. So, "50 First Debates" it is I guess. Why am I suddenly talking about a moon around Pluto, keiths? Wrack your memory. Why? Why? What was the context? Oh, that's right. You'd just made a ridiculous claim about "no unguided processes," and I was pointing out that unguided processes could indeed put a satellite into synchronous orbit, and used the example of Charon to prove the point. A satellite in synchronous orbit, whether around Pluto or the Earth, works just fine as an analogy.
Does Charon’s orbit have a plausible natural explanation? Yes. Should we invoke design? No.
Indeed! So, I guess it's a good thing no one is invoking design to explain either Charon's orbit or the ONH, eh? But if the next Voyager sends back pictures of skyscrapers built on Charon's surface, I bet there will be quite the kerfuffle, despite the fact that Charon's orbit has a plausible natural explanation. Do you disagree?
So how is this supposed to be a problem for my argument?
Because your argument would have us ruling out intelligent causes if we found a satellite in synchronous orbit around a planet that, upon further examination, revealed technology beyond our own capability to reproduce.
(And by the way, you do realize that Charon’s orbit is Pluto-synchronous because of tidal locking, don’t you? Charon didn’t just fall into a synchronous orbit.)
Of course I realize that. I'm the one who corrected your mistaken belief that unguided forces couldn't place a satellite in synchronous orbit, remember? Phinehas
Phinehas #886:
Instead, what you desperately need is to demonstrate that the phenomenon in question a) doesn’t require [an intelligent cause], and b) is explained far better by an unintelligent cause.
That's what my argument does. The ONH is precisely what UE predicts, and it's exactly what ID doesn't predict. The fit between UE and the evidence is extremely strong, which makes it the better hypothesis. To successfully argue against UE, you need something just as strong or stronger on the ID side of the ledger. Where is your evidence? I keep asking IDers for evidence of a barrier that prevents microevolution from accumulating to become macroevolution, but they never provide one. The response I usually get is "you need to provide a step-by-step account of how X evolved", which is absurd, since IDers themselves can't meet the equivalent requirement. That is, they can't provide a step-by-step account of how X was designed and implemented. So what is the barrier, and what is your evidence? Keep in mind that your evidence needs to be strong enough to overcome the fantastic match between UE and the ONH evidence. You are effectively making this argument: "Sure, the evidence looks exactly like it would if unguided evolution were true, but I know better. I personally have my doubts about unguided evolution, and I think there is a barrier that prevents unguided microevolution from accumulating to become macroevolution. I am so confident, so sure of this barrier that I can infer design despite the ONH evidence." Okay, then what is the barrier and what is your evidence for it? Be specific. Show us that the ONH requires an intelligent cause, as you claim. keith s
Phinehas #887, Thanks for the chuckle. First you were talking about a satellite "in geosynchronous orbit above the earth", and now you're suddenly talking about a tidally locked moon in a Pluto-synchronous orbit above Pluto. I guess that first analogy didn't work out too well for you. So now let's look at your revised example. Does Charon's orbit have a plausible natural explanation? Yes. Should we invoke design? No. So how is this supposed to be a problem for my argument? (And by the way, you do realize that Charon's orbit is Pluto-synchronous because of tidal locking, don't you? Charon didn't just fall into a synchronous orbit.) keith s
KeithS I am still waiting for you to answer five critical questions that you did not address in your OP. A sentence or two will do. [a] You now agree that human designers can produce an ONH. How many ways can they do that? Would it be hundreds and hundreds?--millions and millions?--trillions and trillions? [b] How do you "know" that unguided evolution exists? You have never answered this question except to say that all intelligent people believe it. Is that your best shot? [c] How do you support your claim that UE predicts an ONH? [d] How do you support your claim that ONH is evidence for unguided evolution? Is it based solely on [c]? [e] What evidence to you have to support your claim that unguided evolution has been observed generating ONH’s. StephenB
keiths:
Phin: A satellite sits in geosynchronous orbit above the earth. According to keiths, it most likely reached this position unguided, since a guider could have guided it to anywhere in the universe.
Another terrible analogy. There are no unguided processes that predict the launching of satellites from the earth’s surface into geosynchronous orbit, and in the case of satellites, we know who the launchers are and what their goals and capabilities are.
Who said anything about "launching" or "from the earth's surface?" There are certainly unguided processes that can put satellites into synchronous orbit around planets. Or are you claiming that Pluto's moon Charon was guided into it's current position by Planetary Angels? Do I need to remind you that it is ridiculous to posit an intelligent cause for a phenomenon that a) doesn’t require one, and b) is explained far better by an unintelligent cause? You know, I think this thread could inspire a movie. We could call it "50 First Debates." Phinehas
keiths:
The Rain Fairy analogy works, because it shows the ridiculousness of positing an intelligent cause for a phenomenon that a) doesn’t require one, and b) is explained far better by an unintelligent cause.
Thank you keiths. Thank you, thank you, thank you. Thank you for this kind of thing right here. It has kept me genuinely entertained and continues to hold off the threat of boredom inherent in a thread this long about a trivial and silly argument. You are truly the debater who keeps on giving.
The Rain Fairy analogy works, because it shows the ridiculousness of positing an intelligent cause for a phenomenon that a) doesn’t require one, and b) is explained far better by an unintelligent cause.
No keiths. That is exactly why the Rain Fairy analogy doesn't work. In fact, I don't think I could have put the situation any better. (Again, thank you.) You don't need an analogy to show the ridiculousness of positing an intelligent cause for such a phenomenon. No one is arguing that it wouldn't be ridiculous to posit an intelligent cause for such a phenomenon. Instead, what you desperately need is to demonstrate that the phenomenon in question a) doesn’t require [an intelligent cause], and b) is explained far better by an unintelligent cause. This is precisely what you haven't done, what you consistently avoid doing, and why a Rain Fairy analogy is simply a pretense until you do. Phinehas
Keith says:
HeKS is telling us what evidence to pay attention to and what evidence to ignore, and guess what? The evidence he says we should ignore just happens to be the evidence that hurts ID. No doubt that’s just a coincidence.
Hah. Yes, I'm suggesting that we give more weight to the best-practice design decisions made in fields of human design that are most relevant to life rather than giving more or equal weight to the cases that are far less relevant or completely unrelated. How silly of me. Don't I know that this ruins the even probability distributions that Keith relies on to make the actions of a completely unknown kind of "designer" of completely unknown attributes so utterly inscrutable? Seriously though, pointing out that ONHs rarely appear in fields of human design that seem to have no obvious relevance to what we know about life, even if these represent most fields of design, does not hurt ID. The fact remains that in the field of human design that is clearly very relevant to life, ONHs are produced all the time as a best practice for easily understandable reasons. Any reasonable person should recognize the heavily asymmetric value of this evidence. The fact that you want to ignore it and pretend that I'm the one acting irrationally to support my case is quite telling, Keith. HeKS
keiths:
Your analogy is terrible.
Phinehas:
Of course it is terrible. I modeled it after your Rain Fairy analogy, but flipped it around so that it favored an ID conclusion.
The Rain Fairy analogy works, because it shows the ridiculousness of positing an intelligent cause for a phenomenon that a) doesn't require one, and b) is explained far better by an unintelligent cause. Your examples, by contrast, don't fit that mold. I've already explained what's wrong with your car self-parking example. Now let's look at your satellite example:
A satellite sits in geosynchronous orbit above the earth. According to keiths, it most likely reached this position unguided, since a guider could have guided it to anywhere in the universe.
Another terrible analogy. There are no unguided processes that predict the launching of satellites from the earth's surface into geosynchronous orbit, and in the case of satellites, we know who the launchers are and what their goals and capabilities are. Your example has practically nothing in common with my argument.
Never mind that intelligent agents are known to place satellites in geosynchronous orbit.
And intelligent agents aren't known to have generated the complexity and diversity of terrestrial life. That's what the dispute is about! Once again, your "analogy" isn't analogous.
According to keiths’ logic, this piece of information is overwhelmed by the “trillions” of other places the satellite could have been placed, forcing him to conclude that all satellites in geosynchronous orbit are very unlikely to have gotten there via intelligent intervention.
My logic is completely different. UE predicts the ONH. Unguided launching, or whatever bizarre unguided phenomenon you're thinking of, does not put satellites into geosynchronous orbit. Since you're bad at analogies, how about tackling the argument directly? Can you find a flaw in it? keith s
HeKS, my attention was particularly drawn to this part of your argument:
HeKS: But programmers don’t [wreck ONH]. They try very hard not to and plan carefully to try to avoid breaking them. I make several passes over the course of a project, spending several hours each time, just trying to maximize my use of ONH code structures and keep them clean and without overlap, and this is after spending time trying to plan them out at the beginning of the project as well. Programmers do this not because they love ONHs for their own sake but because of their functional utility and expandable versatility. [my emphasis]
If it takes that much effort, why must we assume that natural forces are able to create ONH's, as you state in #878 - "an unintelligent process would be capable of producing the bare pattern"? Box
HeKS:
It’s not particularly clear why it should be surprising that “unguided evolution” would “predict” this when it is basically the very observed phenomenon that it was proposed to explain.
This is a great point. But perhaps you are forgetting that scientists could have generated a trillion other hypotheses, and so we can't really say that intelligence was involved in them landing on the one that matches the data they were trying to explain. Phinehas
Keith: Then we look at the ONH evidence, which looks exactly as it should if evolution is unguided.
Uh no, because UE cannot even produce one single protein.
Keith: UE makes a precise prediction, and the prediction is confirmed.
Wrong again, UE cannot produce information nor make predictions. Why do you play stupid? Why not start addressing the objections instead of repeating your already refuted tripe? Box
keiths:
This is pitiful. 1. HeKS has started deleting comments.
Why is it pitiful for HeKS to delete posts that have nothing whatsoever to do with either the OP or your argument (as is both his right and his responsibility as a moderator)? Would posts that lead others away from dismantling your arguments somehow be a welcome relief to you? Phinehas
vividbleau #876, Censorship is pitiful. keith s
@Box #859
HeKS #845, Your contribution makes ONH an interesting topic for ID! I’m curious to find out where this will lead us. Are we witnessing a 180 degree turn? Does ONH point to design?
I think it depends on the way you're looking at it. The presence of an ONH, in and of itself, does not necessarily point to design, as an unintelligent process would be capable of producing the bare pattern. As such, the pattern would not seem to pass the design filter and it would probably not be warranted to infer design from the mere existence of the pattern itself. However, as I've been saying since I entered the discussion, the fact that unintelligent processes can produce ONH patterns does not mean that unintelligent processes can produce any particular ONH, as the ultimate shape of the ONH or the content classified within the ONH may require a design explanation. This is why I think Keith's focus on the pattern itself is largely a distraction. An ONH won't be produced unless new features get variably added to a generally common stock. But any process that does this can be considered a form of 'branching descent with vertical inheritance' and it will necessarily create an ONH pattern. The adding of the features will create an ONH, and the places they get added will determine the shape of the ONH. So the vital question that needs to be answered with respect to any particular ONH is whether or not natural processes are the best explanation for the actual content classified in the ONH and for actual observed innovations that create the ONH structure. Now, trying to argue that we should be impressed with the amazing fact that "unguided evolution" predicts an ONH is rather odd, and for a few reasons. First, it amounts to saying that "unguided evolution" predicts that new features will be variably added in an orderly way in a domain of life while existing features will largely remain the same or similar. It's not particularly clear why it should be surprising that "unguided evolution" would "predict" this when it is basically the very observed phenomenon that it was proposed to explain. Second, "unguided evolution" would only predict this when given a method in place to prevent the loss of existing features, otherwise an ONH wouldn't be produced, regardless of what features got added. And, of course, living organisms do have high-efficiency error-correction systems to prevent the catastrophic corruption and loss of the digital information needed to build and organize the arrangement of the components necessary to their features. The thing is, the creation of such systems is not any kind of inherent prediction of "unguided evolution", which does not predict any particular system or innovation [1], and which lacks any foresight and simply proceeds from happy accident to happy accident ("accident" because the changes are supposed to be unintentional, and "happy" because they prove to have a net benefit under the current environmental conditions). On the other hand, standard design principles and best practices directly predict the existence of such systems, which humans use all the time, though in a less sophisticated form. Third, given the systems to prevent the catastrophic loss of existing features, which are necessary to make an ONH pattern possible and which happen to be highly sophisticated and efficient implementations of known best-practice design features, "unguided evolution" will still only predict an ONH if it is actually capable of producing the particular innovations / additions in that ONH. Remember, such additions and innovations are the very observable phenomena that evolution was intended to theoretically explain. Here, Keith proposes that we simply assume it can produce those innovations, and therefore predicts the ONH. This is basically a case of affirming the consequent. Keith's argument is saying that because "unguided evolution", if sufficient to produce the innovations, predicts the existence of an ONH, finding an ONH is powerful evidence that "unguided evolution" is sufficient to produce the innovations. However, anything that produced the innovations while essentially retaining the existing features (software versioning does this all the time) would produce the ONH, so in order for Keith's argument to have any force at all he would need to be able to show that "unguided evolution" is either uniquely causally adequate to produce those innovations (including the systems that prevent feature loss) that lead to the ONH structure in the first place, or else is by far the best causal explanation for them. But, of course, neither is possible, because it isn't known that "unguided evolution" is causally adequate to produce them at all, as that is what the argument is trying to establish. Instead, he tries to argue that "unguided evolution" is by far the best explanation for the distribution of the innovations into an ONH, thereby trying to avoid the main problem. But even if it were true that an unguided process were typically the best explanation of an ONH pattern itself, in general, that would not be a remotely powerful enough point to explain away the introduction of the complex innovations and constitute powerful evidence that "unguided evolution" could or did produce them. However, even to establish that "unguided evolution" is the best explanation of the distribution of innovations into an ONH pattern would require he show that an ONH pattern is very highly unexpected on a design hypothesis, which is what he thought was the case when he came here. Unfortunately for his argument, that just isn't true, because best practices in a field of human design (software development) most relevant to what we know about life consistently produce ONH patterns by writing and organizing code in a way that is highly efficient and scalable / expandable. The ONH structure is produced from the use of class inheritance in OOP and the nested hierarchical functional dependencies of methods and functions in both OOP and procedural programming, where new functionality builds on and outwards at various points from existing functionality. And the same patterns are regularly used when writing in styling and markup languages for web development. Furthermore, our understanding of the best programming practices that produce ONHs means that we can see an actual functional reason for why a designer would choose to use an ONH pattern in these kinds of circumstances rather than having to simply rely on some statistical distribution of how often humans happen to use ONHs in far less relevant or completely unrelated circumstances. In addition, the same ONH patterns are found within organisms, in the complex control networks that govern organismal development, showing a continuity of design patterns between the biological systems from which design is actively inferred and the overall organization of life. So, to kind of sum that up, inferring design from the existence of the ONH pattern itself, in the sense of the simple fact of the distribution, would not be warranted. But inferring design from the whole picture that includes the particular ONH in question would seem to be very sensible, as it presents a very coherent holistic impression of a complex programming project that has been instantiated in 3D. But even if we choose to take a more conservative approach on this point, the least we can say is that the ONH is highly consistent with a design hypothesis for non-arbitrary reasons directly related to best-practice design principles in force in our most highly relevant fields of human design. It most certainly does not offer us any reason to abandon existing design inferences in biology or to think that the overall organized structure of life makes those design inferences irrational. --------------- FOOTNOTES: [1] Noting that a complex system or innovation is highly useful serves to explain why an intelligent designer would produce and retain it, but it does not serve to explain why an unintelligent process would produce it. HeKS
keiths:
Your analogy is terrible.
Of course it is terrible. I modeled it after your Rain Fairy analogy, but flipped it around so that it favored an ID conclusion. See how that works? I could probably crank out another ten or so if I wanted. Growing tired of having valid points ignored, I've resorted to merely flipping your own arguments around so that you can (hopefully) recognize just how terrible they are. Of course, now you are left without an argument at all, and must cover up this fact with calls for people to read your OP, as though it had somehow improved with age. Phinehas
Keith's RE 873 Wow! Hard to believe you are this clueless. Of course he announced it and you took it as an opportunity to fire out a pitifully cheap shot. Vivid vividbleau
keiths: I'm reading your post @871 trying to find anything at all that is actually responsive to the points being made against your argument. I'm not having any success. As the old Monty Python skit goes (no, not the one with the Black Knight), this isn't an argument, it's just contradiction. It takes very little intellectual ability. It's easily produced drivel. 1. Keiths is just making stuff up. 2. All keiths' arguments are distorted and favor his conclusions. 3. Keiths doesn't even understand his own argument, let alone the points made against it. 4. Keiths is still keiths. Now imagine if the situation were reversed, and it was ID that was assuming it's conclusions when trying to make a point. (You know, kind of how, "Now imagine the situation were reversed, and that it was ID that fit the evidence trillions of times better than UE," assumes the very thing at issue, and the very thing that you are unable to support, as this post highlights, and the very thing that has been so ably and thoroughly rebutted that this fluff of a post is the best you can manage in retort.) Would keiths be ignoring how ID assumed its conclusions? No. This is pure drivel. Tripe would be embarrassed to have this called tripe. But even a broken clock is right twice a day, which helps explain how you might have stumbled onto this truth:
Truth is taking a back seat to ideological precommitments.
Honestly, this post of yours probably doesn't deserve a two-line insult, let alone the response I've given. It isn't so much that what you've written is wrong (though it quite obviously is) as it is that what you've written is so very intellectually lazy. Outrageously so. Embarrassingly so. Phinehas
Phinehas #868, Your analogy is terrible. We know that cars are made, owned, and driven by people. We know that cars generally don't go rolling down hills by themselves, because their owners don't want that to happen and take steps to prevent it. We also know that cars accidentally rolling downhill don't auto-steer themselves neatly into parking spaces, braking to a smooth stop. In short, we have every reason not to believe that the car parked itself without guidance, so we reject your silly straw man hypothesis. Then we look at the ONH evidence, which looks exactly as it should if evolution is unguided. UE makes a precise prediction, and the prediction is confirmed. ID can't match it. I do the rational thing by accepting the better hypothesis. You do the irrational thing, rejecting the better hypothesis because it doesn't fit well with your religious preconceptions. The fact that you are coming up with these easily discredited analogies shows that you recognize the force of my argument and are struggling to find a response. You'll continue to try, I'm sure, but keep this in mind: The fact that something is important to you, and that you've believed it for years or even decades, does not mean that it's true. The truth is not obligated to conform to your wishes, no matter how fervent. keith s
vividbleau, HeKS himself announced it:
Andre #46 I’ve deleted the comment and any future comments of that sort will be deleted. There’s no point even commenting on that type of thing if you see it because it won’t be staying. Any patience I had for him has been exhausted and repeated warnings didn’t work in his case, so the deletions have begun.
keith s
Keith
This is pitiful. 1. HeKS has started deleting comments.
What's pitiful is this cheap shot. Vivid vividbleau
IDers, This is pitiful. 1. HeKS has started deleting comments. 2. HeKS is telling us what evidence to pay attention to and what evidence to ignore, and guess what? The evidence he says we should ignore just happens to be the evidence that hurts ID. No doubt that's just a coincidence. 3. Several commenters object to the Principle of Indifference, a standard principle for assigning probabilities in the absence of prior information. Guess what? The PoI just happens to hurt ID in this case. Surely that's just a coincidence, though. 4. Phinehas keeps coming up with "analogous" arguments that aren't analogous at all. Guess what? All of his analogies are distorted and interpreted in favor of ID and against UE, but that's undoubtedly just a coincidence. 5. KF #866 still has no idea what the argument is about. 6. Box is jumping on whatever bandwagon he can find. 7. Joe is still Joe. Now imagine the situation were reversed, and that it was ID that fit the evidence trillions of times better than UE. Would HeKS be telling us to ignore the evidence that hurt UE? No. Would these same people be objecting to the PoI if it favored ID? No. Would Phinehas be coming up with analogies designed to make UE look better? No. Would Box be jumping on whatever UE bandwagon happened to be available? No. (KF would still be confused, and Joe would still be Joe, however.) It's laughable. All of these people are assuming the truth of ID, then working backwards to decide what principles to accept or reject, what evidence to consider or ignore, what analogies are valid or invalid, based solely on their desire to see ID prevail. It's the very opposite of an honest inquiry. Truth is taking a back seat to ideological precommitments. Meanwhile, I'm simply pointing out that if we have one hypothesis that fits the evidence extremely well, and another that doesn't, we should choose the one that fits. Obviously. I'm not asking for evidence to be ignored. I'm not asking for established and rational principles to be abandoned. I'm simply asking for a fair comparison. When the comparison is done fairly, UE blows ID away. It's not even a contest. keith s
Andre fulfilled my prediction. Pachyaena
Phinehas #868, an extremely fitting comparison! According to Keith's logic, anyone who suggests guidance would be falling into the Parking Fairy trap. Box
keiths: An automobile is at rest in a parking spot. There is a hill nearby. The automobile is situated such that, if it had started at the top of the nearby hill and was then acted on by purely natural forces, it would have come to rest in exactly the spot where it currently sits. According to keiths' logic, it is very unlikely that a driver parked the automobile in this location, because the driver could have driven it a trillion other places, so the odds are low that the driver would have driven it to exactly the same place where natural forces would place it. Never mind that the automobile is in a parking spot and drivers are known to park in parking spots. Even more, somehow the car is obviously not designed as a result of the above. Phinehas
Joe #848
Obviously keith s is just an ignorant troll
Joe #849
Can someone please help keith s. He seems to be too cowardly or too ignorant
Joe, can you please dial this tone back? Two-line comments that consist as much of an insult as a point don't help the tone of the thread. AND TO EVERYONE... I understand that people are getting annoyed with each other on both sides and that people are going to make digs at each other because this is the internet and its inevitable, but let's all try to keep it to a minimum and to have the ratio of relevant arguments to personal comments tip very heavily in favor of the arguments. If you re-read your comment before posting and the main thing that stands out is that you're insulting someone or some group of people, there's probably a better way to write your comment. And if an insult is the most important point in your whole comment, why not try to think of something more important to say and say that instead? HeKS
F/N: As a quick point, take one blank canvas, add some paints and a Picasso or a Rembrandt etc. Huge contingency, but no one in his or her right mind would take the fact that there were many many other possibilities for the canvas to dismiss the fact of design evident in the FSCO/I on the canvas -- paintings are not made by accidents or explosions in paint shops. Design is usually based on choice towards purpose in the midst of contingency, so -- as long as there is more than one way to skin a cat-fish -- contingency is not legitimate reason to reject design. I therefore must highlight how there is ever so much eagerness to cling to a fallacious talking point to dismiss a design inference, even while the inference from FSCO/I to design as its best current explanation is inductively very strong, on trillions of cases in point. I notice the now expected, message dominance zero concessions, refusal to acknowledge that FSCO/I is a real phenomenon [or that Orgel pointed out how it can be measured at first level just as has been brushed aside ever so many times when it was said by design thinkers . . . ], that it shows up in Wicken wiring diagrams for Abu 6500 C3 reels, oil refineries, cellular metabolism networks, the protein synthesis system and D/RNA as a part of that, alike. Insofar as there are branching tree networks and/or hierarchies in the set of life forms, that is a known and from the outset admitted possibility of a designer with an intent to design where such makes sense. What is critical then is the origin of FSCO/I, from OOL to origin of body plans and up to us. And, it remains the case that the only empirically warranted, sparse needle in haystack search plausible cause of FSCO/I is design. But, obviously there must be zero concessions regarding FSCO/I. I trust that should be enough of to help set a few things in perspective. KF PS: I notice people speaking dismissively on situations they know nothing about; only that they wish to be contemptuously dismissive. That speaks volumes, and not to their benefit. kairosfocus
keiths:
You are ignoring the cases where humans don’t produce ONHs, which are a majority. Why? Because you want to prop ID up. No other reason.
Oh, look. We are back to an argument that rests on the PoI. Shocker! If your argument doesn't need the PoI, then why do you keep returning to it? It is still not a valid argument. A satellite sits in geosynchronous orbit above the earth. According to keiths, it most likely reached this position unguided, since a guider could have guided it to anywhere in the universe. Never mind that intelligent agents are known to place satellites in geosynchronous orbit. According to keiths' logic, this piece of information is overwhelmed by the "trillions" of other places the satellite could have been placed, forcing him to conclude that all satellites in geosynchronous orbit are very unlikely to have gotten there via intelligent intervention. Phinehas
Pachy But don't feel bad because these guys are far more confused than you and Keith S. http://biologos.org/blog/understanding-random Andre
What is chaos for feeble minded people? http://www.stsci.edu/~lbradley/seminar/chaos.htm What is chaos actually? http://www.blogcdn.com/www.greendaily.com/media/2008/01/greenberg-kansas-tornado-destruction-550.jpg It is destruction and unguided by its very nature is chaos. Let's not get into the meaning of things mkay? Andre
Keith's argument is of course the same drivel as Larry's http://sandwalk.blogspot.com/2012/08/is-unguided-part-of-modern-evolutionary.html Lets us not quibble about random and unguided.... if we don't we don't really have to talk about the fact that chaos and unguided actually destroys.... we can just sugar coat this nonsense with the assumption that chaos and unguided can become ordered and guided if we just give it some time and a chance, just have some faith my brother. Andre
Andre, will you please link to where Keith claims that "chaos can produce objective nested hierarchies"? Will you also please link to where in evolutionary theory there is the claim that "chaos can produce objective nested hierarchies"? Prediction: Andre and/or other IDers will conjure up that "chaos" is in some or all ways the same thing as "unguided evolution". Pachyaena
I think I might have figured out what's going on in Keith's head, he is confusing chaos theory with unguided evolution how else is he able to conjure up that chaos can produce objective nested hierarchies? Well Keth chaos can not do what you believe. We have plenty evidence against that. Andre
HeKS #845, Your contribution makes ONH an interesting topic for ID! I'm curious to find out where this will lead us. Are we witnessing a 180 degree turn? Does ONH point to design? Box
Whatever Pachy- your projection, ignorance and cowardice are duly noted Joe
Joe, with a 'fellow traveler' like you ID doesn't need any enemies. Pachyaena
Pachy cannot reference nor link to this alleged evolutionary theory. Pachy cannot produce a testable hypothesis for unguided evolution. OTOH IDists have provided both a testable hypothesis and scientific methodology for testing ID's claims. And obviously this makes Pachy very, very upset. Joe
Box, you and other IDers obviously don't understand that evolutionary theory doesn't need or include your chosen designer-creator-god or any other designer-creator-god(s), and for good reasons. You IDers are the ones trying to shove your chosen designer-creator-god into evolutionary theory or trying to eliminate evolutionary theory altogether. It is not the responsibility of science to prove that your designer-creator-god doesn't exist. It's your responsibility to show that it does, if you expect science to accept that it does. Your religious beliefs are not the default. Pachyaena
LoL! @ Pachy! It is up to YOU to show that unguided evolution and/or unguided processes can actually do something. Your position has all the power but unfortunately for you it also has all of the losers. And I do not attack anyone's character- they do that all by themselves and I just point it out. keith s has been called out and instead of answering that call he cowers. You do the same, as does Zachriel and all evos. So don't blame me. BTW frequency = wavelength- that is just a fact Joe
keiths said: "Keith: If unguided evolution is “already off the table”, then their minds are closed." Box responded: "These IDers can back up their claim that unguided evolution is off the table. The inability for natural forces to produce even one single protein is one of them." Let's see those IDers back up their claims with something other than bald assertions, and attacks on evolution, evolutionary theory, evolutionists, atheists, materialists, naturalists, etc. Let's see those IDers show that "natural forces" are unable to produce "even one single protein". Pachyaena
HeKS said: "Comments that consist of nothing but a list of general insults and accusations - and poor examples of alleged grievances - will be deleted wholesale when I see them." You're obviously and willfully blind to what you and other IDers say. Big tent and all that, eh? And I see that Joe's character attacking insults are right on-topic. Not. Pachyaena
Keith: There are many choices available to a Designer who guides evolution. (…)
Box: Whatever Keith, but these IDers who “believe that intelligent guidance is necessary to explain macroevolution” will hold that unguided evolution is not possible in principle. They will hold that unguided natural forces are not capable of producing the necessary information. You have said nothing to them which constitute a reason to change their view.
Keith: Showing that unguided evolution fits the evidence trillions of times better than ID, as I have, certainly constitutes “a reason to change their view”.
You did no such thing, simply because you haven't shown that unguided evolution is up to the task.
Box: IOW to argue that the designer could have chosen differently is not an argument in favor of unguided evolution at all. Unguided evolution is already off the table for these IDers.
Keith: If unguided evolution is “already off the table”, then their minds are closed.
These IDers can back up their claim that unguided evolution is off the table. The inability for natural forces to produce even one single protein is one of them. You need to address those reasons before you can argue that unguided evolution is a better explanation. To state that 'there are many choices available to Leonardo da Vinci' doesn't make him an unlikely designer of the Mona Lisa. First one needs to argue for the capability of unguided natural forces to produce the Mona Lisa.
Keith: Being unwilling to look at the evidence is an irrational stance if you care about the truth.
Indeed. That's why you need to look at the evidence, presented by Axe and Behe for example, and address it before unguided evolution can even be considered to be capable of producing ONH. Box
Box said: "Whatever Keith, but these Iders who “believe that intelligent guidance is necessary to explain macroevolution” will hold that unguided evolution is not possible in principle. They will hold that unguided natural forces are not capable of producing the necessary information. You have said nothing to them which constitute a reason to change their view. IOW to argue that the designer could have chosen differently is not an argument in favor of unguided evolution at all. Unguided evolution is already off the table for these IDers. So, your claim that the “ONH argument shows that macroevolution is unguided” is simply incoherent." Maybe all of you IDers should get together and figure out what you're going to assert about design and the designer. You're all over the map about what's designed and what isn't and at least some of you claim that you can and have determined and demonstrated the difference. You don't agree with each other because you each have particular religious beliefs about your chosen god's 'creation'. By the way, I ask questions because I want to find out what you IDers believe and because I want to see if you can support your claims. The thing is, my questions make IDers very uncomfortable because they know that if they answer them honestly it will show that religious beliefs are the basis for the ID agenda, that you IDers are all over the map on your particular beliefs, that you can't support your claims, and that you're being dishonest about your motives and agenda. Pachyaena
Can someone please help keith s. He seems to be too cowardly or too ignorant to produce a model that demonstrates unguided evolution can produce an ONH so perhaps someone can help him with that. PS it is an impossible task Joe
keith s:
UE predicts an ONH without the assistance of a bunch of ad hoc and unsupported assumptions.
You keep saying that as if it means something. Too bad you cannot support that claim.
It’s based on the number of possible nested hierarchies for the 30 major taxa shown in Theobald’s Figure 1.
Theobald's figure 1 is NOT a nested hierarchy! Obviously keith s is just an ignorant troll. Joe
Andre #46 I've deleted the comment and any future comments of that sort will be deleted. There's no point even commenting on that type of thing if you see it because it won't be staying. Any patience I had for him has been exhausted and repeated warnings didn't work in his case, so the deletions have begun. HeKS
Pachyena one off topic comment. Grow up. Andre
Keith #836 Well, that was predictable.
1. You are ignoring the cases where humans don’t produce ONHs, which are a majority. Why? Because you want to prop ID up. No other reason.
Why am I ignoring the cases where humans don't produce ONHs? What, do you think that humans need to be constant ONH-making machines, generating them in all contexts, before we can recognize that there's a perfectly good reason known to humans why an intelligent designer of life would happen to organize life in an ONH? I ignore the cases where humans don't make them because none of those cases are remotely as relevant to the world of life as the cases where they do make them, consistently, as a best-practice, as "the whole backing of good design practices". Who cares if different types of balls don't fit into an ONH, or cars, or chairs, or other groups of products like that? Life is based on biological information encoded into digital code, which happens to make use of tightly constrained, objective nested hierarchical control programs within the body of every organism that controls their developmental processes. Yes, ONHs are used to guide the developmental processes of individual organisms. They don't just show up at the macro scale of life as a whole. [<-- Edit fixed a typo] The closest human design endeavor that we could possibly compare life to is software development, and it just so happens that it's the field in which the production of ONHs are standard operating procedure, generated by best-practice design approaches. So I've selected the most relevant example possible and shown that it routinely, consistently requires the creation of ONHs as a best practice, and you've simply complained about the other non-relevant or far less relevant cases. For you to claim that I selected this example "Because [I] want to prop ID up. No other reason," is incredibly disingenuous and absurd and just shows how utterly unwilling you are to even consider the possibility that your argument doesn't work.
2. You are assuming that object-oriented programming is like the design of terrestrial life in all the relevant ways. You don’t know that, so why are you assuming it? Because you want to prop ID up. No other reason.
Ridiculous, Keith. I'm not assuming that object-oriented programming (and BTW, procedural programming applies as well) is like the design of terrestrial life in all the relevant ways. I'm noting that it is incredibly similar in very many relevant ways and that there is no other human endeavor that I'm aware of that is more similar. Other people have made similar comments: "DNA is like a computer program but far, far more advanced than any software ever created." - Bill Gates "Life is a DNA software system" - Craig Venter Steve Meyer has recounted a story about a former Microsoft engineer who he was working with. Of this software engineer he says:
He walks into my office one day, throws a book down on the table. It's called Design Patterns -- standard textbook for computer design engineers -- and he says, 'I get the eerie feeling, when I'm looking at what's going on in the cell, that's somebody's figured this out before us.' And I said, 'What do you mean?' And he says, 'Well, it's the design patterns,' and then he points to the book. . . . 'We've got design logic for processing information, for doing error correction, for doing distributed data retrieval and reassembly, and for hierarchical organization -- we've got files within folders, like on your desktop, you know, in the hierarchical filing system.' And he says, 'All those design patterns are inside the cell, except they're using a design logic that's like an 8.0, 9.0, 10.0 version of ours. It's the same basic logic, but it's more elegantly executed,' and he says, 'It gives me an eerie feeling.
Now, you argue that I don't know "that object-oriented programming is like the design of terrestrial life in all the relevant ways," but I thought that "Science isn’t about proof, nullasalus". What we do know is that programming and terrestrial life are very similar in a lot of very relevant ways, and that the design patterns on display in the cell are like highly advanced, far more elegant versions of the same design patterns that programmers use all the time in software development as best practices. Why then would we be remotely surprised to find the same principle holds at the more macroscopic scale of the organization of life, where what we're seeing looks for all the world like the 3D instantiation of either a software versioning process or a series of OOP classes and their sub-/extended-classes.
3. You are assuming that the designer is like a human in all of the relevant ways with respect to goals, limitations, resources, and abilities. How do you know all of this about the designer? You don’t. Why are you assuming it? Because you want to prop ID up. No other reason.
Again, ridiculous. In programming, the generation of an ONH pattern results from a best-practice, Keith; not a limitation. It is the thing to strive for due to its ideal functional efficiency and its expandable versatility. An intelligent designer as intelligent and skilled as the average human programmer would be able to recognize the overwhelming design benefits of the structure. But now you want to fall back on the argument that we simply aren't allowed to infer design for anything, including a designer with a humanlike intellect, unless we already know for a fact that that designer exists and has the requisite capabilities to produce the design. And yet, in your own summary of your argument we find:
2. “A designer produced the ONH” is a hypothesis. It might be true; it might be false. If it’s true, then a designer must exist, and it must have the capabilities needed to produce the ONH. If it’s false, then either the designer doesn’t exist (or was prevented from operating), or else it doesn’t have the capabilities needed to produce the ONH. ... 7. If we assume that the ONH is out of unguided evolution’s reach, then of course unguided evolution cannot explain the ONH. 8. If we assume that the ONH is out of the designer’s reach, then of course ID cannot explain the ONH. 9. If we took that attitude, then we’d have to rule out both ID and unguided evolution! That would be a ridiculous conclusion, because one of them might actually be the correct explanation.
If we infer design as a best explanation, we necessarily infer the existence of a designer with the requisite capabilities. If we conditionally infer design to test competing hypotheses for their explanatory scope and power, then we also necessarily make a conditional inference to the existence of a designer with the requisite capabilities. When we make such a conditional inference in the cases where ID actively infers design and make the ONH pattern part of the evidence we consider then we find that it is highly consistent with the design style of the cell and of other biological features. And on the view of life as a sort of highly advanced software program, the pattern becomes not only very consistent but also highly expected as yet another highly advanced implementation of the very same best-practice design patterns we use in similar circumstances and which we find in the cell and in the developmental programs of organisms.
Did you think I wouldn’t notice these unsupported assumptions?
I figured you would flail, misrepresent matters and make false accusations, just as you did.
UE predicts an ONH without the assistance of a bunch of ad hoc and unsupported assumptions.
Not in the least. But we can get to that soon enough.
ID can’t do that, so you are propping it up on crutches and trying to pass it off as an Olympic sprinter. It won’t work.
I'm sure it makes you feel better to say that. The obvious fact of the matter is that when you came here with this argument, you did not think there could be any concrete or discernible reason why an ONH pattern would be more preferable to an intelligent designer than any other type of pattern, or that there were any relevant situations in which humans consistently produce them as a best-practice design pattern. Let's consider the number of times you've appealed to the importance of the connection, or rather disconnection, between human designs and ONHs in this thread alone.
"Humans routinely wreck ONHs."
But programmers don't. They try very hard not to and plan carefully to try to avoid breaking them. I make several passes over the course of a project, spending several hours each time, just trying to maximize my use of ONH code structures and keep them clean and without overlap, and this is after spending time trying to plan them out at the beginning of the project as well. Programmers do this not because they love ONHs for their own sake but because of their functional utility and expandable versatility.
"No one knows of any reason whatsoever for a designer to be limited in this way. Humans certainly aren’t, as I’ve already explained."
And as I've explained, yes, we do know of reasons for a designer to intentionally limit themselves in this way, and they routinely do as a best-practice design pattern in the area of human design that most closely resembles and is the most relevant to the world of life.
"ONHs are the rare exception, not the rule, in human design."
Except that they are the rule in human software design, not the exception.
"Humans, for example, generally don’t care at all about whether their designs form an objective nested hierarchy. They just want their designs to work. To defeat my argument, IDers need to show that the Designer is very un-humanlike in this respect."
Except that programmers care very much about whether their designs form objective nested hierarchies. It's how they get their designs to work best while leaving hooks at various points in their code to built off of in another direction to add new functionality. So in this respect the designer would be very humanlike. Of course, it's hard to keep track of whether we need to show that the designer is humanlike or un-humanlike to satisfy your requirements and defeat your argument. Here you claim that we need to show the designer is very un-humanlike to defeat your argument, but that was only because of the difference you were trying to invoke between the way you thought human designers were expected to act compared to the way the putative designer would have acted. But as it turns out, the putative designer would have acted very humanlike in his designing activities when compared to the most closely relevant field of software programming, and so now we're not allowed to "assume" that the designer would act humanlike.
"[Humans] can create ONHs, but they generally don’t, so this doesn’t help you at all."
Except that in the most closely relevant area of human design they generally do. For good measure, Zachriel also said:
"[I]t’s worth pointing out that human artifacts generally do not form an objective nested hierarchy."
Then it should also be worth pointing out that human programmer artifacts (their code, in the form of OOP classes or functions related in nested hierarchical dependencies) generally do form objective nested hierarchies. And now back to you:
"It isn’t enough to show that a human designer might, on some occasions, choose to produce an ONH, but not on others."
But then it seems it should be enough to show that in the most closely relevant field of human design, being software development, human designers do (not might), consistently (not just on some occassions), choose to produce ONHs whenever possible, because it is considered a best-practice in their (my) field. However, since you've made it quite clear at this point that your only interest is in upholding your argument at any cost, I'm quite certain that you would not consider this or anything else "enough". HeKS
[DELETED] [I hope you saved your work, as you were warned to. If you want to contribute to the thread by actually saying something about the topic of the thread, you're welcome to. Comments that consist of nothing but a list of general insults and accusations - and poor examples of alleged grievances - will be deleted wholesale when I see them. If all you want to do is complain, go do it elsewhere. - HeKS] Pachyaena
KeithS
My answer is the same. Read my OP.
I found nothing in the OP that would answer these five questions: [a] Based on your comments, you seem to know how many ways a human designer could produce an ONH. How many ways would that be? [b] How do you know that unguided evolution exists? You have never answered this question except to say that all intelligent people believe it. Is that your best shot? [c] What is your argument in support of the claim that UE predicts an ONH? [d] What is your argument in support of the claim that ONH is evidence for unguided evolution? Is it based solely on [c]? [e] What evidence do you have in support of your claim that unguided evolution has been observed generating ONH’s,
If you still don’t get it, read the OP again. If it still baffles you, ask someone (not me) for help, or read Vincent Torley’s original OP on the subject. He understood the argument without the hand holding that you seem to require.
It appears that you need Vincent to hold your hand, since you keep calling out his name. A confident person would not get so flustered at the prospect of answering simple and reasonable questions. If you know what you are doing, you should be able to handle each inquiry with a sentence of two.
Try to catch up with the rest of the class. You’re slowing us down.
You are slowing down the process by running away from the questions.. StephenB
HeKS,
And by the way, the trillions-to-one advantage you keep invoking is based on the PoI.
No, it isn't. It's based on the number of possible nested hierarchies for the 30 major taxa shown in Theobald's Figure 1. keith s
HeKS #836: The ad hoc assumptions you are making are staggering. 1. You are ignoring the cases where humans don't produce ONHs, which are a majority. Why? Because you want to prop ID up. No other reason. 2. You are assuming that object-oriented programming is like the design of terrestrial life in all the relevant ways. You don't know that, so why are you assuming it? Because you want to prop ID up. No other reason. 3. You are assuming that the designer is like a human in all of the relevant ways with respect to goals, limitations, resources, and abilities. How do you know all of this about the designer? You don't. Why are you assuming it? Because you want to prop ID up. No other reason. Did you think I wouldn't notice these unsupported assumptions? UE predicts an ONH without the assistance of a bunch of ad hoc and unsupported assumptions. ID can't do that, so you are propping it up on crutches and trying to pass it off as an Olympic sprinter. It won't work. keith s
StephenB, My answer is the same. Read my OP. If you still don't get it, read the OP again. If it still baffles you, ask someone (not me) for help, or read Vincent Torley's original OP on the subject. He understood the argument without the handholding that you seem to require. Try to catch up with the rest of the class. You're slowing us down. keith s
KeithS
It’s UE that predicts an ONH.
Right. I wouldn't want my typo to get in the way. So, I corrected it below. Now let's get on with the show. KeithS
That isn’t an effective response. It isn’t enough to show that a human designer might, on some occasions, choose to produce an ONH, but not on others.
You seem to know how many ways a human designer could produce an ONH. How many ways would that be?
You need something much stronger than that to counteract the trillions-to-one advantage of UE.
Why “a trillion to one?” Why not a million to one?–or a billion to one?–or a quadrillion to one?
As for your claim that UE does not predict an ONH, please provide a supporting argument or quote your previous comment.
How about supporting your claim that UE does predict an ONH? —————————————————————————————— Indeed, when will you finally tell me how “we know” that unguided evolution exists? StephenB
StephenB,
How about supporting your claim that UD does predict an ONH?
UD doesn't predict an ONH. It predicts more of an "unh" or a "huh?". It's UE that predicts an ONH. Read my OP again, Stephen. keith s
KeithS
That isn’t an effective response. It isn’t enough to show that a human designer might, on some occasions, choose to produce an ONH, but not on others.
You seem to know how many ways a human designer could produce an ONH. How many ways would that be?
You need something much stronger than that to counteract the trillions-to-one advantage of UE.
Why "a trillion to one?" Why not a million to one?--or a billion to one?--or a quadrillion to one?
As for your claim that UE does not predict an ONH, please provide a supporting argument or quote your previous comment.
How about supporting your claim that UD does predict an ONH? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Indeed, when will you finally tell me how "we know" that unguided evolution exists? StephenB
Keith,
That isn’t an effective response. It isn’t enough to show that a human designer might, on some occasions, choose to produce an ONH, but not on others. You need something much stronger than that to counteract the trillions-to-one advantage of UE.
That was not a real response. I'm telling you that one of the times that humans consistently and intentionally produce ONHs is in the creation and organization of the digital code for complex programming projects so that they consistently re-use the same or very similar code for the same or similar functionality in a given context or domain. And they do this because it is universally considered to be a best-practice approach / design pattern for creating clean, efficient, flexible and functional code. And one of the other times humans intentionally produce ONHs is in planning out exhaustive or near-exhaustive diversity of features under specific domains. There literally could not be two more relevant situations in which humans create ONHs. And again, in both cases, they do it consistently and intentionally for functional reasons because, as my JAVA programmer friend commented, it is "the whole backing of good design practices". Responding that this doesn't matter because there are other situations in which humans do not typically create ONH is not to respond at all. And by the way, the trillions-to-one advantage you keep invoking is based on the PoI. HeKS
Box #831:
Whatever Keith, but these Iders who “believe that intelligent guidance is necessary to explain macroevolution” will hold that unguided evolution is not possible in principle. They will hold that unguided natural forces are not capable of producing the necessary information. You have said nothing to them which constitute a reason to change their view.
Showing that unguided evolution fits the evidence trillions of times better than ID, as I have, certainly constitutes "a reason to change their view".
IOW to argue that the designer could have chosen differently is not an argument in favor of unguided evolution at all. Unguided evolution is already off the table for these IDers.
If unguided evolution is "already off the table", then their minds are closed. Being unwilling to look at the evidence is an irrational stance if you care about the truth.
So, your claim that the “ONH argument shows that macroevolution is unguided” is simply incoherent.
My argument is incoherent because IDers have closed minds? How does that work? keith s
HeKS #832, That isn't an effective response. It isn't enough to show that a human designer might, on some occasions, choose to produce an ONH, but not on others. You need something much stronger than that to counteract the trillions-to-one advantage of UE. As for your claim that UE does not predict an ONH, please provide a supporting argument or quote your previous comment. I recall you claiming that UE was somehow too vague to make such a prediction, but that's clearly not true. Anyway, show me your argument and I'll respond. keith s
Keith,
UE predicts the ONH. For a designer, it’s just one among trillions of options.
Neither of those sentences are correct. I've addressed both claims numerous time. I've just addressed the second one again by pasting a couple of the previous times I talked about it. HeKS
@Keith #826 Here is the most recent time that I mentioned the relevant context in which humans consistently and intentionally create ONHs:
[Keith argues] there’s no reason to think an intelligent designer would prefer an ONH pattern over any other of a “trillion” imagined patterns, and yet he resolutely ignores that a nested hierarchical approach to programming, with objective nested dependencies and OOP class inheritance by sub-/extended-classes, is considered a best practice, as it maximizes the efficiency of coding and prevents you from inefficiently writing new code to do the same thing a different way in the same context. [As a point of interest, I just happened to be chatting with a friend online who is a Java programmer (I work primarily with UI programming). I mentioned Keith's argument to him and Keith's claims about ONHs being merely one of trillions of possible patterns, that humans don't create them, and that there's no reason to think an intelligent person would prefer to use an ONH instead of some other possible pattern. This was his immediate and unsolicited response: "Huh? That's the whole backing of good design practices. We create that all the time."] .... [W]e are [also] faced with the problem that Keith focuses exclusively on the ONH pattern itself and tries to make an argument based on the probability (or improbability) that an intelligent designer would have directly chosen that pattern rather than on the likelihood that an intelligent designer would have chosen to distribute traits and innovations through a process of branching descent, which would necessarily create a general ONH pattern as a byproduct. Programmers don’t just have a fetish for objective nested hierarchical dependencies. They produce them as a byproduct of choosing a highly efficient way to code for complex functionality.
And in the previous instance that I mentioned it before that:
3) You do not seem to have considered the possibility that there could be a functional purpose to organizing life as a general ONH. While humans do not typically produce strict objective nested hierarchies, humans do intentionally produce nested hierarchies in certain situations. And I don’t just mean that they just happen to produce things that can be placed into some kind of entirely subjective nested hierarchical structure after the fact. As it happens, some of the humans who do this most often are software designers and programmers. For example, when I start a new complex programming project, I plan out the functionality as a nested hierarchy to help me identify what needs to be done and how it can be organized most efficiently. I start with the most abstracted forms of functionality I can think of for each domain of function, then I determine what more specific forms of functionality will be required within the domain, then I plan out the individual functions I will write for each aspect of functionality within the domain. I then determine where they overlap and abstract the overlapping functionality into a supporting function that can be called by several others. When I’ve done this as much as possible and created several of such supporting functions, each called by multiple other functions, I then identify where these supporting functions overlap and then abstract that functionality as well, so that my supporting functions have their own supporting functions. As I’m actually programming, more opportunities to do this jump out at me and I continue to adjust my code to conform to a nested hierarchy of function to minimize duplication of code or function. The degree to which I’m able to do this depends to some degree on the nature of the project, but it is far more dependent on the precision of my planning and my degree of commitment (i.e. my lack of laziness). What is interesting, though, is that I routinely strive for this kind of structural organization, not because I happen to have any particular preference or love for generating nested hierarchies, but just because it is the cleanest, most efficient way to write and organize code for a large project. On a different note, I gave another example in the other thread of how I used a nested hierarchy when working with an associate to help us determine the full range of services a company could offer in different domains of service that the company wanted to deal in. We started with the broad domains themselves, then determined main branches under each domain, then used each new level we set out to help suggest further services that could fall under it so that we could maximize the diversity of the service offerings available from each branch, and each division within each branch, and each group within each division. In other words, two scenarios in which humans are most likely to use nested hierarchies to guide a production process is in making the most efficient use of necessary common functionality, like in writing code for a complex programming project, or in helping to ensure an organized saturation of diversity. So if there was one situation in which you would be most likely to find objective nested hierarchies, it would just happen to be in the organization of code for different domains of function in a complex programming project written by a very intelligent, precise and disciplined programmer. The only thing that would make it more likely is if part of the intent of the programmer was to ensure a maximum diversity of function. Knowing how I work, what I strive for, and why, the idea that life could be organized into objective nested hierarchies by an intelligent designer is not nearly as unusual to me as it apparently is to you. But then, we evidently have very different ideas for what would constitute an “intelligent designer”. Meanwhile, I have less personal understanding for what functional purpose might be achieved by alternate non-nested patterns that would be relevant to the project of life.
These types of nested hierarchies, consistently produced by programmers in multiple programming scenarios as a result of best-practice approaches, both procedural and object-oriented, are all 100% objective. There is zero subjectivity involved in establishing the correct nested hierarchical relationships and there is no need, or ability, to subjectively weight some factors as being more important than others in establishing those relationships. HeKS
Littlejohn: IMO, the ONH is evidence of common descent, but inconclusive wrt whether certain evolutionary processes were designed, or not.
Keith: I addressed that in my OP: What about our third subset of IDers — those who accept the truth of common descent but believe that intelligent guidance is necessary to explain macroevolution? The evidence is a problem for them, (…) the discovery of an objective nested hierarchy implies common descent, but the converse is not true; common descent does not imply that we will be able to discover an objective nested hierarchy. There are many choices available to a Designer who guides evolution. (…)
Whatever Keith, but these Iders who “believe that intelligent guidance is necessary to explain macroevolution” will hold that unguided evolution is not possible in principle. They will hold that unguided natural forces are not capable of producing the necessary information. You have said nothing to them which constitute a reason to change their view. IOW to argue that the designer could have chosen differently is not an argument in favor of unguided evolution at all. Unguided evolution is already off the table for these IDers. So, your claim that the “ONH argument shows that macroevolution is unguided” is simply incoherent. Box
HeKS, Remember, although an ONH is strong evidence for common descent, common descent does not necessarily produce an ONH. That is why the multiple datasets are important. To produce an inferable ONH, the designer has to operate in a way that preserves the consilience of the datasets. Why would he/she/it do so? UE predicts the ONH. For a designer, it's just one among trillions of options. If the evidence points strongly and precisely to unguided evolution, why would we infer design? It makes absolutely no sense. keith s
@CharlieM #825 While we're waiting for Keith, I will confirm that you are right about "individual development producing an ONH". Developmental Gene Regulatory Networks also operate as an objective nested hierarchy. HeKS
Keith, The multiple datasets are required if you want to establish that living organisms fall into any kind of ONH, because living organisms consist of multiple datasets. Multiple datasets are not the same as an ONH. Multiple datasets may be required to establish an ONH exists in particular cases, but it is not the existence of multiple data sets that determines the ONH. I don't know what it is that you don't understand about this. Theobald does not claim anything different than what I'm claiming. You are confusing his method for establish that life falls into an ONH with what an ONH actually is. HeKS
CharlieM, This thread is about my ONH argument. Do you have a counterargument? If so, please present it and I'll respond. keith s
HeKS,
I have been perfectly specific already. Did you not see it? Are you saying you want me to copy and paste it in again?
Yes, please. I've read what you've written, but I don't remember seeing an effective response to the trillions-to-one advantage that UE has in explaining the ONH evidence. keith s
Keith at #810: "I keep asking you to lay out your counterargument, and you keep avoiding the question. Why?" Because I am still waiting for you to answer my question about individual development producing an ONH. Do you agree that this is the case? Can you answer for yourself without invoking Theobald? CharlieM
HeKS,
It is not the multiple datasets that is vital to the definition of an objective nested hierarchy.
The multiple datasets are what establish the objectivity of the nested hierarchy, as Theobald explains. Under the UE hypothesis, we expect such consilience out of trillions of possibilities. Under design, we don't. keith s
HeKS,
Humans don’t typically create ONH’s in most circumstances,
Exactly. So how does the fact that they do sometimes create ONHs help you? Be specific.
I have been perfectly specific already. Did you not see it? Are you saying you want me to copy and paste it in again? HeKS
HeKS,
Humans don’t typically create ONH’s in most circumstances,
Exactly. So how does the fact that they do sometimes create ONHs help you? Be specific. keith s
littlejohn #784:
IMO, the ONH is evidence of common descent, but inconclusive wrt whether certain evolutionary processes were designed, or not.
I addressed that in my OP:
What about our third subset of IDers — those who accept the truth of common descent but believe that intelligent guidance is necessary to explain macroevolution? The evidence is a problem for them, too, despite the fact that they accept common descent. The following asymmetry explains why: the discovery of an objective nested hierarchy implies common descent, but the converse is not true; common descent does not imply that we will be able to discover an objective nested hierarchy. There are many choices available to a Designer who guides evolution. Only a tiny fraction of them lead to a inferable, objective nested hierarchy. The Designer would have to restrict himself to gradual changes and predominantly vertical inheritance of features in order to leave behind evidence of the kind we see.
littlejohn:
Also, can you explain how geographical distribution and extinction better support unguided evolution?
Sure. In the case of unguided evolution, it's no surprise that 99.9% of all species that have ever existed are extinct. UE doesn't have the foresight that could help prevent this. It's much harder to explain why a designer guiding evolution would pursue so many evolutionary dead ends. Similarly with the geographic distribution of species. Under the hypothesis of unguided evolution, it makes perfect sense that, for example, particular islands would have unique species, and that marsupials would be confined to Australia with only a few exceptions. But why would a designer stick to a geographic pattern that looks like it was produced by unguided evolution? The Designer appears to have a thing for mimicking evolution. keith s
Keith,
Your desperation is showing, HeKS.
You're projecting again, Keith. Look at the context of what I said, which I explained to you again for clarification. HeKS
Keith,
Of course it does, because my argument uses the term as Theobald defines it. Think about it.
Theobald is not offering some new definition of what an objective nested hierarchy is. He is just saying how he tries to determine that life falls into an ONH, which is by the comparison of multiple datasets. It is not the multiple datasets that is vital to the definition of an objective nested hierarchy. It is that there is only one correct way for the nested hierarchical relationships to relate to each other. I find it weird that you've been ridiculing some people for not understanding the difference between a subjective and an objective nested hierarchy, but you yourself seem to have misunderstood what the defining feature is, because multiple converging datasets is not the defining feature.
They can create ONHs, but they generally don’t, so this doesn’t help you at all.
Honestly, Keith ... do you read what I write? This is completely wrong. Humans don't typically create ONH's in most circumstances, but there are relevant situations in which they create them consistently. Did you not see my comments on this? Do I need to copy and paste them again?
Meanwhile, UE predicts an ONH out of trillions of possibilities, and the prediction is confirmed.
I've addressed this countless times and you have not responded a single time. HeKS
HeKS,
I was describing what you require them to try to argue, not what you are arguing.
No, you weren't. Nowhere do I say that ID proponents must
...try to argue...that a randomly selected being with no particular traits would just happen to choose an ONH pattern (out of allegedly trillions of other possibilities), entirely for its own sake, to organize life.
Your desperation is showing, HeKS. keith s
HeKS:
It doesn’t matter how Theobald defines an ONH,
Of course it does, because my argument uses the term as Theobald defines it. Think about it.
And I’ve also given examples where humans themselves create ONH’s all the time, but you’ve never said anything.
They can create ONHs, but they generally don't, so this doesn't help you at all. Meanwhile, UE predicts an ONH out of trillions of possibilities, and the prediction is confirmed. Where is the evidence for ID that is strong enough to offset the trillions-to-one advantage of UE in explaining the ONH? Here's the close of my OP again:
Yet the ‘logic’ of ID is exactly the same. Instead of extrapolating from microevolution to macroevolution, IDers assume that there is a mysterious barrier that prevents unguided macroevolution from happening. Then they invent a Designer to leap across the barrier. Then they restrict the Designer’s behavior to match the evidence, which just happens to be what we would expect to see if unguided macroevolution were operating. The Designer ends up being an unguided evolution mimic. The problem is stark. ID is trillions of times worse than unguided evolution at explaining the evidence, and the only way to achieve parity is to tack wild and unsupported assumptions onto it. If you are still an IDer after reading, understanding, and digesting all of this, then it is safe to say that you are an IDer despite the evidence, not because of it. Your position is a matter of faith and is therefore a religious stance, not a scientific one.
keith s
Keith, Here's how you quoted me and the way you responded:
…would just happen to choose an ONH pattern (out of allegedly trillions of other possibilities), entirely for its own sake, to organize life.
What are you talking about? Good grief, HeKS — my argument is that we would not expect the designer to use an ONH motif. A non-ONH pattern is immensely more likely. No wonder you’re confused. You have it completely backwards!
And here's what I originally said, though I'll remove some intervening words to make it easier for you to follow:
Then you insist that they must ... try to argue ... that a randomly selected being with no particular traits would just happen to choose an ONH pattern (out of allegedly trillions of other possibilities), entirely for its own sake, to organize life.
I wasn't confused, Keith. You were. I didn't get anything backwards. You did. I was describing what you require them to try to argue, not what you are arguing. You also got this one wrong:
and try to argue without any context whatsoever that a randomly selected being with no particular traits…
You’re making Box’s mistake. Equal probabilities do not imply indifference or a lack of traits.
You did not accurately represent the context of my statement. I was not saying that whoever the designer actually was would be indifferent or not have traits. I was pointing out your attempt to create a scenario where "intelligent designer" is a meaningless label on an empty role that absolutely any imagined being could be dropped into, including one who is not intelligent and doesn't design. The first part of your comment I'll respond to later. HeKS
Keith, It doesn't matter how Theobald defines an ONH, though I suspect you really mean it's how he decides there is an ONH in the case of living organisms. Nonetheless, CharlieM is completely correct at #808. And I've also given examples where humans themselves create ONH's all the time, but you've never said anything. HeKS
HeKS,
How can you possibly be so consistent in misrepresenting my statements and then responding to your own misrepresentations?
What are you talking about? I quoted you. keith s
Keith: The ONH argument shows that macroevolution is also unguided.
Box: How does the ONH argument show that macroevolution is unguided?
Keith: Ask StephenB.
Box: Why? I’m asking you. How does the ONH argument show that macroevolution is unguided?
Keith: Read my OP.
I have read your OP multiple times but it doesn't say anything about ONH showing that evolution is unguided. So again: How does the ONH argument show that macroevolution is unguided? Box
Keith, How can you possibly be so consistent in misrepresenting my statements and then responding to your own misrepresentations? HeKS
HeKS #724, continued:
Then you insist that they must start by looking only at the pattern of the ONH in complete isolation from anything else...
No, I simply insist that they include the ONH evidence before making a premature design inference. It's common sense. Why would you neglect an important piece of evidence?
...and try to argue without any context whatsoever that a randomly selected being with no particular traits...
You're making Box's mistake. Equal probabilities do not imply indifference or a lack of traits.
...would just happen to choose an ONH pattern (out of allegedly trillions of other possibilities), entirely for its own sake, to organize life.
What are you talking about? Good grief, HeKS -- my argument is that we would not expect the designer to use an ONH motif. A non-ONH pattern is immensely more likely. No wonder you're confused. You have it completely backwards! keith s
CharlieM, I keep asking you to lay out your counterargument, and you keep avoiding the question. Why? How does development help you refute my argument? keith s
HeKS #806, I'm using "objective nested hierarchy" the way Theobald defines it. The fact that multiple datasets converge on the same hierarchy is what makes it objective. keith s
Keith, we don't need multiple datasets that converge on the same hierarchy. Unlike macroevolution we can directly observe the development from the original cell of the multiple types of cell in an organism. We don't need the evidence of multiple converging datasets because we can witness the process happening before our very eyes. I would have thought that this was obvious. CharlieM
HeKS #804, Do you think microevolution is guided? Did the Designer create this year's mutant flu viruses? keith s
Keith #802 An ONH does not require multiple datasets converging on the hierarchy. The multiple datasets is not what is important. What's vital is that the nested hierarchical relationships are objective rather than subjective. In other words, there is a way that the parts relate to each other that is clearly right, and all other ways are clearly not right, and there's no way to argue that any of the latter ways are as valid as the former way. HeKS
Box, Read my OP. If you don't (or won't) understand the argument, then you can sit on the sidelines with StephenB. keith s
Keith #791 It's great that you tried to talk about the "Unguided evolution exists" issue with someone else in the other thread, but none of what you said had or has anything to do with anything I said. Do you bother to read what I write to you? It doesn't really seem like it. HeKS
Keith: The ONH argument shows that macroevolution is also unguided.
Box: How does the ONH argument show that macroevolution is unguided?
Keith: Ask StephenB.
Why? I'm asking you. How does the ONH argument show that macroevolution is unguided? Box
CharlieM:
Keith, I see nothing in Theobald’s writing which prevents me from thinking that the unfolding of an individual multicellular organism produces an ONH. Do you agree that it produces an ONH and if not why not?
Charlie, In the case of development, what are the multiple datasets that converge on the same hierarchy? More importantly, how would this help you refute my argument? Could you lay out your counterargument? keith s
Box,
How does the ONH argument show that macroevolution is also unguided?
Ask StephenB. :-) keith s
HeKS #781:
And yet, if they resume, I will take action, and if you don’t like it, I’m OK with that.
And this time I really mean it! :D HeKS #724:
But Keith, you have claimed that the ONH has logical priority … just not using those words.
No, I've made no such claim, explicitly or implicitly.
What you are trying to do is tell ID proponents that in order to respond to your argument they must begin by forgetting that they have positive reasons for inferring design, forgetting that they have positive reasons for thinking “unguided evolution” is not up to the task of generating macroevolutionary innovations and significant body plan changes, and forgetting what the observational evidence tells us about the nature and trend of microevolutionary changes.
No, I'm arguing that you need to consider the ONH evidence along with any other evidence before making a design inference. You were trying to 1) make a design inference while ignoring the ONH evidence; 2) use that design inference to justify inferring some of the designer's characteristics, based on the supposed designs; and 3) use those characteristics to argue against the ONH evidence so that you could infer design! It's obviously and embarrassingly circular. keith s
Keith, I see nothing in Theobald's writing which prevents me from thinking that the unfolding of an individual multicellular organism produces an ONH. Do you agree that it produces an ONH and if not why not? CharlieM
Keith: The ONH argument shows that macroevolution is also unguided.
How does the ONH argument show that macroevolution is unguided? Box
Box #795, That's just the argument for unguided microevolution. The ONH argument shows that macroevolution is also unguided. The latter is the one that has IDers (including you) tied up in knots. keith s
StephenB, December 3rd:
Your “rain fairy” argument is not original at all. It is really nothing more than a God-of the gaps argument in a cheap tuxedo.
StephenB, less than 24 hours later:
You can’t articulate your argument because you don’t have an argument.
Make up your mind, Stephen. This sort of thing is exactly why I prefer to interact with your fellow IDers, who are more competent than you. keith s
In #791 Keith argues for unguided evolution. His argument goes like this: Micro-evolution might be guided, but that is as unlikely as rain being dropped by a rain fairy. So natural forces are a plausible explanation for micro-evolution. Sneering aside, that seems to be it. Box
CharlieM:
I would appreciate an answer if only to get a clear understanding of what you mean by an ONH.
That's why I referred you to Theobald. He explains exactly what an ONH is and how it differs from a mere nested hierarchy. keith s
Keith, you accused me of not knowing what an ONH is (#694). Its possible that I have a poor understanding of it and maybe I am assuming it is something different to what you believe it to be. So because in post #702 you only answered one of my questions from post #700, I will repeat the question you failed to answer. I asked "...of course there are differences between the unfolding of an individual organism and the evolution of life as a whole. But there are also many similarities. Do you agree that they both produce objective nested hierarchies?" You also failed to answer my question regarding ONHs in post #696. I would appreciate an answer if only to get a clear understanding of what you mean by an ONH. CharlieM
HeKS
The funny thing is, this was one of the main issues I raised for the discussion in the OP but at nearly 800 comments in this thread, my comments were never addressed. Even funnier is the fact that it was one of the issues in the OP of the previous thread that was also taken from one of my comments, and in over 600 comments the issue never got addressed in that thread either.
Yes. You have gone above and beyond the call of duty. I think it is time that you were excused from the responsibility of explaining KeithS to KeithS. It is time he explained himself---one "argument" at a time. He escapes reasonable scrutiny by being allowed to dance around like a jack rabbit. Let everyone hear and focus on his answer to this one question. Then someone can ask another question. It's the old 80/20 rule. The answer to one well-thought-out question can obviate the need for hundreds of less important questions, and will often reduce them to the status of irrelevancy. StephenB
HeKS #787, I addressed that issue multiple times. It's the nullasalus/WJM mistake.
WJM #12:
1. Keith claims that unguided evolution exists; he has yet to provided any scientific research to support the “unguided” portion of that assertion.
William, As usual, you’re pretending that I haven’t already addressed your point. I did, over a week ago:
William #259:
Even if we accept the validity of the prediction, the circularity of Keith’s argument is obvious. He has assumed that evolution is unguided in the first place, and so if what evolutionary patterns predict bears out, he considers it evidence in favor of an “unguided” evolution conclusion.
William, You’re repeating the nullasalus error again:
Science isn’t about proof, nullasalus. Surely you’ve heard that somewhere along the way. Sure, microevolution might be guided. The grains falling out of my salt shaker might be guided by invisible leprechauns to their final resting place on my french fries. Raindrops might be gathered, shaped, and dropped by the Rain Fairy in a precise pattern. The swirl of water in your toilet bowl might be guided by Shamu, the Invisible Toilet Whale. But anyone insisting on these things would be justly regarded as a loony. There is no evidence that these things are guided, so intelligent people rightly regard them as unguided.
What’s especially hilarious about this is that you had just written this in the immediately preceding comment:
It is indeed the ID position that in any case where natural forces are a plausible explanation, natural forces is the better explanation because design would be an unnecessary added causal entity.
Natural forces are a plausible explanation for microevolution. Try to be consistent from one comment to the very next one, William.
I love arguing with William. :-)
keith s
Read my OP, Phinehas. That part of the argument has nothing to do with the PoI. keith s
keiths:
The fact that unguided evolution predicts the ONH out of trillions of possibilities is enough by itself to give UE a huge advantage over ID.
I can't quite tell whether you think the above is an argument and not merely an assertion. I'm leaning toward the conclusion that you do, which would be most unfortunate, since it would make moving the discussion forward very, very difficult. Phinehas
Phinehas, The fact that unguided evolution predicts the ONH out of trillions of possibilities is enough by itself to give UE a huge advantage over ID. That step does not require the PoI. All the PoI did was to make the advantage even more lopsided by showing that ID predicted a non-ONH pattern with 99.99...% probability. With the PoI, we have:
1. UE predicts an ONH out of trillions of possibilities, and the prediction is spectacularly confirmed. 2. ID predicts a non-ONH with 99.99...% probability out of trillions of possibilities. The prediction fails. UE wins by an enormous margin.
Without the PoI, we have:
1. UE predicts an ONH out of trillions of possibilities, and the prediction is spectacularly confirmed. 2. ID lacks a probability distribution and cannot make a prediction. UE wins by an enormous margin.
keith s
@StephenB
I know that you like to hide behind complexities and long lists, but let’s begin with this “argument” of yours which is crucial to your [argument?]
We know that unguided evolution exists.
How do you know that?
The funny thing is, this was one of the main issues I raised for the discussion in the OP but at nearly 800 comments in this thread, my comments were never addressed. Even funnier is the fact that it was one of the issues in the OP of the previous thread that was also taken from one of my comments, and in over 600 comments the issue never got addressed in that thread either. HeKS
keiths:
2. My argument does not depend on assuming that evolution is unguided. That is the conclusion of the argument, not an assumption.
Can you tell me more about this argument (that doesn't depend on "the pilot could have steered the rocket anywhere!") that evolution is unguided? (And please don't point to your OP, since it is so replete with "the pilot could have steered the rocket anywhere!" thinking, that I don't think it can be untangled.) Could you please spell it out for me? Phinehas
KeithS
Alas, the silent bannings are continuing.
Poor KeithS. He wants to be a martyr, but no one will execute him. Why don't you simply tell us which one of your claims (call them arguments if it make you feel better) you would like to have refuted. Don't give us a long list and a series of distractions, just provide one example so that we can focus on it. It's a little late, but better late than never. I know that you like to hide behind complexities and long lists, but let's begin with this "argument" of yours which is crucial to your [argument?]
We know that unguided evolution exists.
How do you know that? StephenB
keith s #762 IMO, the ONH is evidence of common descent, but inconclusive wrt whether certain evolutionary processes were designed, or not. Also, can you explain how geographical distribution and extinction better support unguided evolution? Thanks! littlejohn
Jerad,
Here’s your chance UD moderators! Prove keith s wrong!
I don't know anything about any bannings, silent or otherwise. This is the only thread I've really been following since it started. HeKS
keith s #779, 780
Didn’t CS Lewis and JRR Tolkien used to meet in a pub?
Yes, along with the rest of the Inklings. But I don’t know whether they played darts with pre- or post-specified targets. :-)
:-) And they're both dead now so we'll just have to dream on . . .
Alas, the silent bannings are continuing.
If that's true then that is very sad indeed. Not at all in agreement with an enlightened Christian attitude as I understand it. But I'm open to correction. If necessary. Here's your chance UD moderators! Prove keith s wrong! Worthy of a new thread surely. Jerad
Keith,
By flexing your moderation muscles, you got yourself into a jam. Think ahead next time.
I did think ahead. Sometimes a simple request is all that is required, and for all but one person it was. But sometimes a threat is required. And sometimes a few threats are. There may still be a smattering of discussion about moderation practices, but the completely off-topic motive-mongering rants intended to hijack the thread have stopped without the need for me to actually take any action. And yet, if they resume, I will take action, and if you don't like it, I'm OK with that. All moderation-related activities from me have been for the purpose of keeping the thread ultimately focused on the primary topic. Now why don't we move beyond your preferred moderation philosophy and get back to the issues. HeKS
Jerad,
Let me just take the time to thank Barry and whoever else decided to alter the moderation/admission policy.
Alas, the silent bannings are continuing. keith s
Jerad:
Didn’t CS Lewis and JRR Tolkien used to meet in a pub?
Yes, along with the rest of the Inklings. But I don't know whether they played darts with pre- or post-specified targets. :-) keith s
StephenB #774
I retracted that statement as a courtesy to HeKS. However, when someone like Pachyaena calls me “dumb” while making a manifestly and monumentally stupid statement, I don’t think the proper response is, “Why can’t we all just get along?”
Gotta agree with you there. I've been called lots of names on this site as well. Let's hope we can all work towards that being the exception rather than the rule. PLEASE!! Let me just take the time to thank Barry and whoever else decided to alter the moderation/admission policy. Last year or so my comments were put into moderation to the point where there was no point to me attempting to participate in conversations. By the time my comments were approved everyone had moved on. I will do my best to be polite and respectful, honest and clear, straightforward and transparent. Not transparent like Claude Rains though. If anyone gets that joke. Jerad
1. Unguided evolution makes a one-in-trillions prediction that is spectacularly confirmed. [Phin: Note the "unguided" assertion]
Phinehas, The hypothesis of unguided evolution makes those predictions. It isn't necessary to assume that a hypothesis is true in order to determine its entailments. Reread these two points until they sink in: 1. My argument does not depend on the PoI. It's just a bonus. 2. My argument does not depend on assuming that evolution is unguided. That is the conclusion of the argument, not an assumption. keith s
keith s #766
I live in England, here it would have to be darts or snooker actually.
Can we draw bullseyes around the darts after we throw them? :-)
Not without making yourself look like a right prat!! :-) I can just hear it now: Oy! Whot's that Yank doin'? Who let 'im in eh?
In some nice pub with excellent ales.
That’s the important part.
Clearly. Didn't CS Lewis and JRR Tolkien used to meet in a pub? Jerad
HeKS #769:
I have used “less” moderation, Keith.
In that case, try aiming for less than "less".
I haven’t actually taken the step of deleting anything up to this point.
Right, but you threatened to, which itself is an exercise of moderation power:
As usual, I see my charity was misplaced. You clearly are trying to hijack the thread. Well, now that you’ve gotten your little emotional rant out of the way I’m giving you fair warning that any further off-topic hijacking attempts will be deleted. I also ask anyone else who might be planning a response to Pachyaena’s 618 to refrain from posting it (save it for another day). It wouldn’t be fair to cut him/her off and then allow a bunch of people to respond. If something gets posted in the next 30 minutes or so on the subject, including by Pachyaena, I’ll give the person the opportunity to copy and save their work before I delete it. Anything else will go in the trash when I see it.
And now, having made that threat, you can't carry it out, because it would mean deleting comments by practically everyone participating in this thread, including yourself. By flexing your moderation muscles, you got yourself into a jam. Think ahead next time.
But one discussion on this subject got completely shut down for off-topic motive-mongering insulting rants.
Which was another abuse of moderation power:
KF is abusing his moderator privileges again. This time he has not only annotated, edited and deleted the comments of othershe has thrown a tantrum and shut down an entire thread in which a vigorous discussion was taking place. Could someone put a leash on him? This is ridiculous.
When it comes to moderation, less is better. keith s
Jerad
I’m going to assume (and hope) that despite this statement you will continue to be polite and respectful and respond to the arguments presented and not through your personal opinion of ‘Darwinists’.
I retracted that statement as a courtesy to HeKS. However, when someone like Pachyaena calls me "dumb" while making a manifestly and monumentally stupid statement, I don't think the proper response is, "Why can't we all just get along?" StephenB
Keith, Further to my #771, take the comment however you like. I don't care, and discussing how you want to take it any further is a waste of time. Let's just stick to the arguments. HeKS
keiths:
Phin: The PoI is not essential to your argument only so long as no one challenges your “unguided” assertion by pointing out that branching descent with vertical inheritance will produce an ONH whether guided or unguided. Then, the PoI gets slipped right back in and the shell game continues.
keiths: The PoI isn’t needed, period. It’s just a bonus. ID is in trouble either way, as I keep pointing out:
We’re going in circles because you keep making the same mistake. You think my argument depends on the principle of indifference, but it doesn’t. Even without the PoI, we have this: 1. Unguided evolution makes a one-in-trillions prediction that is spectacularly confirmed. [Phin: Note the "unguided" assertion] 2. ID lacks a probability distribution and cannot make a prediction. [Note: no invocation of the PoI] It’s still completely lopsided in favor of UE.
Keiths, this would work out better for you if you didn't keep making my arguments for me. Once again:
IDists: OK, I get the gravity assist maneuver thing, but you just tacked on the “unguided” part. A gravity assist maneuver explains the data whether it was guided or unguided. keiths: It can’t have been guided, since a pilot could have steered the rocket anywhere! IDists: But what if a pilot, you know, wanted to put the rocket in areosynchronous orbit? keiths: We know nothing about the pilot! Except that we must assume he could have steered the rocket anywhere! And since he could have steered the rocket anywhere, the odds are a trillion-to-one that he would have steered it into an areosynchronous orbit. IDists: I’m pretty sure that’s not right, but in any case, you realize that ID is open to the possibility that an intelligent engineer just set up an initial trajectory to ensure the object reached the proper orbit, don’t you? keiths: A pilot could have steered the rocket anywhere! And even if this is somehow illegitimate, an unguided gravity assist maneuver explains the data a trillion times better. IDists: But you just tacked on the “unguided” part again. keiths: It can’t have been guided, since a pilot could have steered the rocket anywhere! IDists: *collective sigh
Phinehas
Keith: misrepresents the context of comments, refuses to take people at their word, refuses to retract deceptive accusations when they've been shown to be inaccurate. Of course, in #724 I was writing on the assumption that you were not consciously trying to force that scenario, and that it was therefore not your intended position, but merely an unnoticed consequence of it. If you're saying that it is truly your intentional position.... HeKS
HeKS #767: "I'm not casting aspersions, I'm simply pointing out that your position is 'absolutely crazy'." I love HeKS. :-) keith s
@Keith #755
HeKS’s mistake was to make an empty threat which, if consistently applied, would require the deletion of half the comments at UD. Threads go off topic all the time. The way to get them back on the rails is to lead by example, not by threat. Look at the last couple of dozen comments and note how many are off topic. Is HeKS really going to delete all of those? He would be foolish to. When it comes to moderation, less is better.
I have used "less" moderation, Keith. I haven't actually taken the step of deleting anything up to this point. But one discussion on this subject got completely shut down for off-topic motive-mongering insulting rants. I'd much rather try to keep the thread on topic than have that happen again. I also actually want to keep the thread on topic for its own sake. Sidetracking discussions to make insinuations about the "other" side's motives does nothing to help get to the truth of a matter under discussion, no matter who does it. People may have motives and they may have agenda's, but trying to focus on what those may be is useless when it comes to either validating or invalidating their arguments. I see no reason to stand by and watch the thread get hijacked by genetic fallacies. HeKS
KeithS
Your fellow IDers have been trying to refute my argument — an argument which doesn’t exist, according to you — for six full weeks.
No, they have been refuting your many unsubstantiated and uncoordinated claims. You don't have a coherent argument, as is clear from the fact that you cannot articulate it to me--even as a response to a challenge--even as a response to a dare. You are daring in your rhetoric, which is not unusual for the internet, but you are not daring in your disclosures, which is really all that matters. StephenB
@Keith #759
For example, HeKS #724 characterizes my position as “absolutely crazy”, but then goes on to make an actual argument, for which I applaud him.
You will note, however, that I said I was not intending it as an insult to you in that instance. Rather, I was referring to what was being required of the ID proponents when you insist on the ONH taking logical priority. Also, I've been making arguments all along. They've simply resulted in chirping crickets. HeKS
Jerad:
I live in England, here it would have to be darts or snooker actually.
Can we draw bullseyes around the darts after we throw them? :-)
In some nice pub with excellent ales.
That's the important part. keith s
@Alicia #752
The problem is that by not allowing open dialogue with critics, pro-ID websites give the impression they have a poor case, while allowing open discussion exposes the weakness of ID arguments. It’s a tough call.
I see. So it's a heads you win, tails we lose kind of scenario. Well, while I can appreciate that this may be your opinion of the matter, it certainly isn't mine. Furthermore, if you mean to imply (it's not clear) that my moderation-oriented comments have been made for the purpose of trying to prevent open dialogue to protect ID from criticism, any unbiased consideration of the facts will show that is incorrect. My only intention has been to keep the thread on-topic rather than allow it to devolve into a series of off-topic motive-mongering rants. HeKS
Pachyaena
That’s pretty funny considering the fact that you IDers constantly ‘reduce’ organisms and everything else in the universe to ‘bits’, cells, genes, amino acids, DNA, RNA, chromosomes, mutations, ‘machine’ parts, ‘gears’, photons, sand grains, atoms, CSI, dFSCI, FSCO/I, and a WHOLE BUNCH of other ‘parts’, including Quantum stuff, in your lame and two-faced attempts to support ID.
Aside from the fact that Box just argued for the wholeness of organisms, could you explain how design is a reduction? Silver Asiatic
keith s #761
Compromise isn’t a realistic goal in most cases.
Always worth striving for. And sometimes that's the way it has to be.
I’m happy whenever a) the disputants understand each others’ arguments, and know where the disagreements lie, and b) the onlookers have enough information to render their own judgments.
You're preaching to the choir there, if you'll allow me the analogy. Even if no resolution is available I'm happy if greater understanding and tolerance are achieved. Too bad we don't all live close to each other 'cause then we could have an annual softball game to figure out who's right!! :-) I live in England, here it would have to be darts or snooker actually. In some nice pub with excellent ales. Jerad
littlejohn,
For the sake of argument, let’s say that dinosaur “A” (that became extinct 150 MYa), is the direct ancestor of all extant bird species. How do you know whether or not each generation in that succession was the result of unguided processes?
We never know it with certainty, of course, because science doesn't deal in proofs. The whole process might have been guided, just as the Salt Leprechauns might have been guiding the salt grains onto my french fries. Instead, we look at the evidence and ask: Does this evidence better match the hypothesis of design or of unguided evolution? Unguided evolution makes a number of peculiar predictions that are well confirmed, but that fit poorly with the design hypothesis. The ONH is one of them, and it's the one I focus on in my argument, but there are others as well, like the odd geographical distribution of species, or the vast numbers of extinctions that have occurred during the history of life. keith s
Jerad,
I do believe that there are some deep and real disagreements represented on this forum. I don’t know how to resolve the gulfs. But I do know that I’d rather work towards a resolution with those with whom I disagree. That’s the way to find a real, liveable compromise. Maybe nobody wins but nobody loses either.
Compromise isn't a realistic goal in most cases. I'm happy whenever a) the disputants understand each others' arguments, and know where the disagreements lie, and b) the onlookers have enough information to render their own judgments. keith s
keith s For the sake of argument, let's say that dinosaur "A" (that became extinct 150 MYa), is the direct ancestor of all extant bird species. How do you know whether or not each generation in that succession was the result of unguided processes? littlejohn
Alicia Renard:
It’s counter-productive. I tend, seeing an unwarranted aspersion, to scroll past the rest of the comment.
That behavior itself is counterproductive. Substantive points are often mixed in with the unwarranted aspersions, and you'll miss them if you go on auto-scroll. For example, HeKS #724 characterizes my position as "absolutely crazy", but then goes on to make an actual argument, for which I applaud him. keith s
StephenB #732, Your fellow IDers have been trying to refute my argument -- an argument which doesn't exist, according to you -- for six full weeks. Do you think they've been hallucinating this entire time? Use the "principles of right reason" to help you with this one. keith s
Alicia #753
It’s counter-productive. I tend, seeing an unwarranted aspersion, to scroll past the rest of the comment. This applies no matter which “side of the debate” someone is.
We're here because we actually want a dialogue. Well, that's why I'm here anyway. I shouldn't assume anything about others eh? I should not ascribe to a group behaviour I observe in an individual. And I should not apologise for those who act badly. No matter which side they're on. In all cases. I do believe that there are some deep and real disagreements represented on this forum. I don't know how to resolve the gulfs. But I do know that I'd rather work towards a resolution with those with whom I disagree. That's the way to find a real, liveable compromise. Maybe nobody wins but nobody loses either. Jerad
Phinehas #743:
The PoI is not essential to your argument only so long as no one challenges your “unguided” assertion by pointing out that branching descent with vertical inheritance will produce an ONH whether guided or unguided. Then, the PoI gets slipped right back in and the shell game continues.
The PoI isn't needed, period. It's just a bonus. ID is in trouble either way, as I keep pointing out:
We’re going in circles because you keep making the same mistake. You think my argument depends on the principle of indifference, but it doesn’t. Even without the PoI, we have this: 1. Unguided evolution makes a one-in-trillions prediction that is spectacularly confirmed. 2. ID lacks a probability distribution and cannot make a prediction. [Note: no invocation of the PoI] It’s still completely lopsided in favor of UE.
keith s
Alicia Renard:
Moderation is a tricky business. Consistency is almost impossible but attempting it is commendable.
Actually, consistency is quite easy to attain if you simply refrain from moderating except when it is truly needed, which is almost never. HeKS's mistake was to make an empty threat which, if consistently applied, would require the deletion of half the comments at UD. Threads go off topic all the time. The way to get them back on the rails is to lead by example, not by threat. Look at the last couple of dozen comments and note how many are off topic. Is HeKS really going to delete all of those? He would be foolish to. When it comes to moderation, less is better. keith s
Heks @724 Could you give some more details on the "specific type of designer" that is implied by I'D? 5for
Jerad responding to StephenB's
What is it about Darwinists that renders them incapable of rational thought? Does the Darwinism make them irrational, or does their irrationality attract them to Darwinism?
writes:
But please don’t cast aspersions on other group’s intellect. That’s not productive. That makes a lot of people who are lurking feel much less welcome.
It's counter-productive. I tend, seeing an unwarranted aspersion, to scroll past the rest of the comment. This applies no matter which "side of the debate*" someone is. *Another false dichotomy! Alicia Renard
HeKS asks Alicia:
In any case, it’s quite clear that Pachyaena wants to hijack the thread and carry it down a rabbit hole that has absolutely no relevance to any aspect of the topic at hand, and wants to do it while hurling insults of insincerity and dishonesty for not making this thread an argument about the Bible. What do you think I should do about that?
Moderation is a tricky business. Consistency is almost impossible but attempting it is commendable. I think you have been taking a better line than has been the case previously in this blog. The problem is that by not allowing open dialogue with critics, pro-ID websites give the impression they have a poor case, while allowing open discussion exposes the weakness of ID arguments. It's a tough call. My suggestion would be to abandon ID and develop an honest Christian approach to Science. Accept that, when facts conflict with dogma, it is necessary to change the dogma rather than attack the facts. But I realise that would be a very tough decision for those still convinced that the ID paradigm still has something to offer. Alicia Renard
StephenB #749
What is it about Darwinists that renders them incapable of rational thought? Does the Darwinism make them irrational, or does their irrationality attract them to Darwinism?
I'm going to assume (and hope) that despite this statement you will continue to be polite and respectful and respond to the arguments presented and not through your personal opinion of 'Darwinists'. I too sometimes find it frustrating when I feel that participants on this forum are not listening to what I'm saying. But I have tried very hard to remain respectful and polite. And to listen. I'm a human being and therefore fallible so I accept the need for some 'correction' at times so don't hesitate if you're sure I need it. But please don't cast aspersions on other group's intellect. That's not productive. That makes a lot of people who are lurking feel much less welcome. Jerad
As a tribute to HeKS, I will retract the second paragraph in my statement @749. However, I fear that Pachyaena will need a brief lesson in logic, so here we go: A thesis that cannot be summarized in abstract form is not really a thesis. Still, a rational thesis (which is longer) does not make its abstract (which is shorter) irrational. Get it? Now, stay with me, a rational argument that cannot be summarized in a single paragraph is not really a rational argument. Still, a rational detailed account of the rational summary does not make the summary irrational. Are you beginning to understand, Pachyaena? StephenB
Pachyaena
StephenB authoritatively asserted: “Let’s face it. Anyone who has legitimate rational argument can summarize it in one paragraph. If Keith cannot do that, then he really doesn’t have an argument.” (my bold)
That is correct.
StephenB, you are likely too dumb to realize it but you just claimed that every argument ever made by you IDers, that is more than one paragraph long, is illegitimate, irrational, and not really an argument.
I really don't need to say anything. You just exposed yourself to the world. A rational detailed explanation does not make a rational abbreviated explanation irrational. What is it about Darwinists that renders them incapable of rational thought? Does the Darwinism make them irrational, or does their irrationality attract them to Darwinism? StephenB
keiths:
First, interplanetary probes don’t follow perfectly ballistic trajectories. Course corrections are needed along the way, and orbit insertion requires a significant change in momentum, accomplished either by a burn or by aerobraking.
I don't think you understand WJM's argument at all. His main point is this: The path it took is of no importance compared to the complex, organized, functional nature of the materials of the object itself, which clearly require ID as part of their explanation. And you are countering this by talking about the path the object took? Did you not even hear a whooshing sound as the argument flew over your head? Even worse, you are engaging in exactly the kind of thing that WJM's analogy was designed to highlight, in effect confirming his assessment.
Second, even a perfectly ballistic trajectory would be a poor analogy for evolution. A ballistic trajectory is determined by initial conditions. Evolution has a significant random component, since it depends on mutations and random environmental changes that are happening continually.
More confirmation that WJM's analogy has pegged your argument with uncanny accuracy.
At the time of the dinosaurs, do you really think you could have predicted the arrival of humans millions of years later?
No, but I also don't really think that I could have created life. On the other hand, I'm not at all certain that the designer of life couldn't have predicted the arrival of humans.
Third, an interplanetary probe does not evolve into millions of complex forms as it travels. Minus a software upgrade or two, the probe at the destination is the same probe you started with.
I'm having a difficult time imagining how one could miss the entire point of an argument with any more acumen and relish than you have demonstrated. Seriously. It is such a singular feat that I am actually entertained by it at this very moment, such is the depth of my amusement and amazement.
In the case of evolution, complexity is being produced continually along the way, yet the ONH evidence shows that the process is unguided.
No. It doesn't. You've only ever assumed that it does.
If unguided evolution can produce complexity after the LUCA, what is your basis for arguing that the complexity of the LUCA itself requires a design explanation?
Unguided evolution can't produce squat. You keep asserting and assuming that it can while studiously avoiding any and all challenges to put your money where your mouth is.
Fourth, if you only believe that life was designed, but that mutation, selection and drift proceeded unguided from that point on, then congratulations — you’re a “neo-Darwinist” and my argument should not trouble you.
If you believe that life was designed, then you are an IDist. Congratulations!
But most IDers will disagree with you, because they want to believe that humans were an intended target, not an accident.
This merely reveals more assumptions on your part, but why stop now?
Fifth, we know why interplanetary probes are placed on their particular trajectories. We know what the goal is, we know what the constraints are, and we know what the costs are. None of this is true in the case of the purported Designer.
Did you not notice that you switched from talking about what we know about a design to talking about what we know about a designer? Are you not the slightest bit reflective when writing such things? Do you not test and measure your own thoughts with a critical eye? Are you not the least bit skeptical concerning your own beliefs? I really want to know. Are you really just that oblivious? Or was this a calculated move on your part? Phinehas
Uh Oh: "Beaver dams, of course, do not have in them digitally coded symbol strings or the like. However, as specific, functional structures they exhibit functionally specific, complex organisation. So, we can reduce such a dam to a nodes and arcs representation that does have functionally specific, complex information, which is FSCI." by kairosfocus the reductionist (my bold) https://uncommondesc.wpengine.com/intelligent-design/beavers-as-designers-are-they-intelligent/ Pachyaena
Box cluelessly said: "Naturalism is the profoundly incoherent philosophy which embodies the reductionist ambition to explain organisms by its parts yet it incoherently appeals to organisms as a whole.' That's pretty funny considering the fact that you IDers constantly 'reduce' organisms and everything else in the universe to 'bits', cells, genes, amino acids, DNA, RNA, chromosomes, mutations, 'machine' parts, 'gears', photons, sand grains, atoms, CSI, dFSCI, FSCO/I, and a WHOLE BUNCH of other 'parts', including Quantum stuff, in your lame and two-faced attempts to support ID. Pachyaena
Pachyaena - design is a big issue which is obvious to most people. Unfortunately, we have to bring the dialogue down to the level of Legos to communicate with the materialist world-view. Silver Asiatic
Silver Asiatic said: "That’s why we see materialists arguing endlessly on the most trivial points, but they never want to deal with the big issues." The big issues such as fishing reels, Legos, faux constitutional crises in Montserrat (pop. 5,000), caek recipes, watermelon eating ticks, music and verse, and "What if Shakespeare Were an Alien"? Pachyaena
keiths:
Spend some time thinking about this, Phinehas. The PoI is not essential to my argument. It’s just a bonus.
The PoI is not essential to your argument only so long as no one challenges your "unguided" assertion by pointing out that branching descent with vertical inheritance will produce an ONH whether guided or unguided. Then, the PoI gets slipped right back in and the shell game continues. As illustrated previously:
IDists: OK, I get the gravity assist maneuver thing, but you just tacked on the “unguided” part. A gravity assist maneuver explains the data whether it was guided or unguided. keiths: It can’t have been guided, since a pilot could have steered the rocket anywhere! IDists: But what if a pilot, you know, wanted to put the rocket in areosynchronous orbit? keiths: We know nothing about the pilot! Except that we must assume he could have steered the rocket anywhere! And since he could have steered the rocket anywhere, the odds are a trillion-to-one that he would have steered it into an areosynchronous orbit. IDists: I’m pretty sure that’s not right, but in any case, you realize that ID is open to the possibility that an intelligent engineer just set up an initial trajectory to ensure the object reached the proper orbit, don’t you? keiths: A pilot could have steered the rocket anywhere! And even if this is somehow illegitimate, an unguided gravity assist maneuver explains the data a trillion times better. IDists: But you just tacked on the “unguided” part again. keiths: It can’t have been guided, since a pilot could have steered the rocket anywhere! IDists: *collective sigh*
Phinehas
StephenB authoritatively asserted: "Let’s face it. Anyone who has legitimate rational argument can summarize it in one paragraph. If Keith cannot do that, then he really doesn’t have an argument." (my bold) StephenB, you are likely too dumb to realize it but you just claimed that every argument ever made by you IDers, that is more than one paragraph long, is illegitimate, irrational, and not really an argument. I'll keep that in mind every time you IDers post more than one paragraph, and thanks for putting a big smile on my face. Pachyaena
Box
However, the naturalists want it more than anything – which profoundly puzzles me.
I agree. It frightens and puzzles me also. I can only guess, but there can be some comfort in darkness and meaninglessness -- not when you actually look at it for what it is, that would be terrifying. But when you run down paths that lead nowhere it can be "fun". It's a diversion from reality. That's why we see materialists arguing endlessly on the most trivial points, but they never want to deal with the big issues. If your mind can be distracted and amused, then you don't have to think about what it all really means. Science itself is a distraction for many. We can read the absurd and laughable "science" that evolutionists come up with just about every day here. Keep in mind, they spent years creating this useless drivel. They built a whole career on it. But they will never take a minute to admit to themselves or anyone else, that their own worldview asserts that all of it is meaningless. It's all just blind, unguided molecular activity. I guess that thought is so frightening (and it is for me) that they just run away from it. Its only the rare, honest naturalist that stands up and says that it's all nothing. The brain is determined to output certain results and human beings have no real value. Silver Asiatic
SA #739: The reason we find, so often, that the naturalist does not want to talk about “what really exists” is because it is incoherent and also, I guess, quite frightening.
"Frightening" indeed! When I attempt to see myself - my consciousness, my reason, my feelings et cetera - as fermions and bosons, it frightens me. The mere attempt violates me and puts me in a dark place. However, the naturalists want it more than anything - which profoundly puzzles me. Box
Box
No, functional for survival, Darwinians tell us. Survival of what? The organism as a whole.… what else can they say? But for the naturalist there is no organism as a whole, there are just fermions and bosons.
The organism as a whole is what we call "life" - which is, as you said, what is explained away by naturalism. Why do fermions and bosons need to survive? They exist. A common naturalistic analogy is that life is a chemical reaction and organisms are like soap bubbles (or water bubbles on the surf if you don't have soap). Chemicals randomly assemble and create life. Then, "life wants to survive" the way soap bubbles "live" for a while, then they "die". This itself is absurd beyond belief, but let's accept it. Do soap bubbles "struggle for survival" and do they worry about competition for resources? It's the same fermions and bosons at work. Soap bubbles do not change into entirely different species in order to survive.
So what do ‘functionality’ and ‘survival’ even mean when there is no legitimate appeal to the notion of an organism as a whole under naturalism?
Exactly. Supposedly, the massive variety of the entire biosphere on earth was developed because fermions and bosons "wanted to survive" and had to change into entirely different beings - trees, flowers, birds, lizards, fish, humans, in order to survive and reproduce. But what would happen to the fermions and bosons if none of the biosophere ever survived? Of course, nothing. The fermions and bosons in a non-living thing are the same as in something that is "struggling for survival". Life, clearly, as no meaning in the naturalistic view.
The utterly incoherent thing is, that the ultimate ambition of naturalism is not to explain life but to explain away life – reducing the organism as a whole to what “really” exists: fermions and bosons.
Exactly. It's especially incoherent because its only rarely that we'll hear a naturalist actually say this. It should be in the forefront of their thought. They talk as if the organism as a whole not only is distinct from the molecular structure, but that the organism has some importance and meaning, when it really has none.
When I debate naturalists and I cannot help but wonder how they manage to keep it together.
I wonder the same thing. In every case I detect a profound uncertainty underneath the bold, atheistic veneer. Of course, it must be uncertain because there's nothing of value under the veneer - it's just blind, unthinking, non-rational molecules and processes. The reason we find, so often, that the naturalist does not want to talk about "what really exists" is because it is incoherent and also, I guess, quite frightening. So, we find incredibly long discussion threads which are an exercise in distraction -- allowing the mind to run on paths that seem important or meaningful, to engage some intellectual stimulation (like a game or a crossword puzzle), but when the topic turns to what this all really means -- well, that's the ultimate thread-killer. ID engages naturalism on its own terms -- with the science and that's the brilliance of the ID project. But it does have limits since debates on science can end with one speculative proposal versus another. Silver Asiatic
@721 Andre See #736 Dionisio
@723 Andre See #736 Dionisio
@733 kairosfocus Agree. IMO, all attempts to engage in serious discussions fail under the burden of unending senseless debates between two irreconcilable worldview positions. That's an obvious way to squander precious time. Dionisio
Unguided evolution of what exactly? Naturalism is the profoundly incoherent philosophy which embodies the reductionist ambition to explain organisms by its parts yet it incoherently appeals to organisms as a whole. Incoherent because there can be no such thing as an organism as a whole in naturalistic explanations. Rosenberg :” There are just fermions and bosons and combinations of them.” If an organism is reducible to fermions and bosons what does it even mean when we call certain traits functional and selectable? Functional for what? Functional for fermions and bosons? No, functional for survival, Darwinians tell us. Survival of what? The organism as a whole.… what else can they say? But for the naturalist there is no organism as a whole, there are just fermions and bosons. So what do ‘functionality’ and ‘survival’ even mean when there is no legitimate appeal to the notion of an organism as a whole under naturalism? The utterly incoherent thing is, that the ultimate ambition of naturalism is not to explain life but to explain away life – reducing the organism as a whole to what "really" exists: fermions and bosons. On top of that naturalism informs us that consciousness, reason and the whole scientific endeavor is reducible to and navigated by unconscious unreasonable unfeeling fermions and bosons, who don't give a hoot about truth, reason, science, life, meaning and/or morality. When I debate naturalists and I cannot help but wonder how they manage to keep it together. Box
keith:
The development of an individual organism is quite different from evolution.
Unguided evolution cannot explain the development of individuals. Add that to the list of FAILures for unguided evolution. Joe
HeKS, I appreciate your concern to be on topic. My thought is that something needed to be said for record on the underlying issues at worldviews level. I remain convinced that these are directly relevant to the tactics we are seeing and are the frame of thought that grounds the ideology manifested in the tactics (and at this stage I won't bother to try to take up the usual attack the man counters, take them in the context of the above). I would love to take up matters more fully in another thread, but I have a full plate here dealing with a political-legal-media issue that is potentially a watershed. Perhaps SB, who also has contribution privileges can take that up. KF PS: I add, for clarification: that when a pattern of rhetorical tactics is as pervasive as the message dominance, no concessions, insistent repetition of cogently answered -- nay, outright refuted -- talking points we have seen for several weeks (note Black Knight etc etc), on longstanding experience of ideologues and people dominated by ideology [I especially have Marxism in mind as a paradigm case] the issue is plainly ideological, not logical/factual. Thus, worldviews roots issues are directly relevant/material. kairosfocus
HeKS, for me, it would be perfectly fine if KeithS would frame an argument similar to the various options that you describe @724. Indeed, I think that your analysis of his errors and your attempt to provide "a way forward" for him are heroic. VJ Torley attempted to help him out in the same way, though not nearly at such a comprehensive level. In keeping with that point, I don't think his comments even rise to the level of an argument. That is why everyone is taking him apart at the periphery. They (and you) can respond to his many unsubstantiated claims and imagined facts about unguided evolution, but I find no substantial core or substance at the center. In a sense, you have been doing much of his thinking for him, but he will not allow himself to learn because he labors under the illusion that he is the teacher. Let's face it. Anyone who has legitimate rational argument can summarize it in one paragraph. If Keith cannot do that, then he really doesn't have an argument. When I ask him to deliver something substantial, he becomes defensive and tells me to "figure it out." But that is the problem--there is no "it. A rational argument is clean, and there is nothing clean about his effort. The parts just don't fit together. It isn't necessary for him to disclose all the details at once. Just as soon as he presents the skeleton, we can fill in the flesh, blood, and bones with him or for him. Again, though, I find no skeleton, which is why everyone is chewing away at pieces of flesh as if they were attached to something. StephenB
Keith S I've come to expect it from him When Keith S can't even trust his own thoughts how will others ever do? :) Andre
Andre, It's clear that Keith has an agenda here and that he likes to play dirty pool. I'm not surprised at his characterization of the situation. Are you? HeKS
Keith, My comment to KF was posted before I saw your unneeded "reminder". Also, it's interesting how you included my first response to KF, but regarding my comment to Pachyaena, you didn't include my first response to his attempts to drag the discussion into a completely irrelevant subject after calling us all dishonest creationists, which was simply:
"I’m trying to figure out what relevance you think this has to the primary topic of this thread."
That's something of a "pretty please, Pachyaena", under the circumstances. Nor did you note my second response to his attempt to drag the thread off-topic, which was to simply ignore the off-topic questions, until he asked me again to answer them. Nor did you include my third response to him:
"It seems like you’re trying to hijack the thread and focus on something completely off-topic. I’m willing to be charitable, however, and assume that you’re not doing it intentionally. Still, the fact remains that the questions you’re asking are entirely irrelevant to this thread."
But you only included my 4th response to his off-topic antics, which antics consisted of an emotion-laden insult-filled rant directed at me, at which point I said:
"As usual, I see my charity was misplaced. You clearly are trying to hijack the thread."
And let's not forget that this was after I initially humored his claim that we were dishonest creationists only to find that he appeared to be using the term purely for incendiary rhetorical purposes, as when pressed for an explanation of his use he defined "creationist" so broadly that it basically had nothing to do with the politically- and ideologically-charged meaning that most people associate with it. I was more than fair with Pachyaena. He chose how he wanted to respond. HeKS
HeKS There you go Keith S telling you what a utterly awful Christian you are for kissing ass with other Christians.....
After two off-topic comments from kairosfocus (link, link), and a reminder from me, HeKS administers a stern rump osculation:
Andre
Andre,
HeKS Then you know that the more 2000 comments on Keith S’s supposed bomb is futile because each group is applying different rules. Truthfully these two groups don’t even apply the same logic to anything…………. So what’s the point? for the fence sitters? I doubt it…..
Yes, partially for the fence-sitters. The other part is that I just find it interesting dissecting arguments like this and analyzing their logical underpinnings. I like to go over arguments and see where I think they are strong or weak, and when I find them weak, I like to keep looking until I think I've found all the soft spots. I may well have already reached that point with Keith's argument. When I think I've made all my points sufficiently clear so that readers of the thread (present and future) will be able to follow the precise reasoning, I'll stop. HeKS
I'll respond to your #724 tomorrow. keith s
HeKS #719:
Yes, well, I just saw Keith’s post now after posting my comment to KF, but I don’t require goading from him in order to be consistent and play fair.
LOL. What does HeKS mean by "being consistent" and "playing fair"? After off-topic comments from Pachyaena, (link, link), HeKS writes:
As usual, I see my charity was misplaced. You clearly are trying to hijack the thread. Well, now that you’ve gotten your little emotional rant out of the way I’m giving you fair warning that any further off-topic hijacking attempts will be deleted.
After two off-topic comments from kairosfocus (link, link), and a reminder from me, HeKS administers a stern rump osculation:
As you know, I completely agree on this philosophically. As you may recall, it was the first thing I wrote about when I was invited to become a contributor here. That said, if you want to address this issue at length, it would probably be a better idea to start a new OP on it where a legitimate discussion can be entertained. It’s one thing to directly discuss the debating tactics being used by certain people in this thread in the context of their own specific actions, but I’d rather not have us go off on a tangent about materialist ethical philosophies in general here, however much the topic interests me. It would be hypocritical of me to ask the anti-ID people to keep the discussion in this thread narrowly focused and on-topic while engaging in digressions with people on my side of the debate. Also, I typically prefer not to attribute the specific actions and misbehavior of particular individuals to their worldview unless I have overwhelming reason to think it’s truly the culprit. As you well know, people do not always act in a way that is logically or philosophically consistent with their own worldview, and even when they do it may not be because of their worldview, so blaming their misbehavior or debating tactics purely on their worldview (especially in the absence of them invoking it as justification) is inherently problematic. They could be behaving poorly for an entirely different reason. In any case, if you want to discuss this further can you please start a new OP?
"It would probably be a better idea... I'd rather not have us go off on a tangent... if you want to discuss this further can you please start a new OP?" Pretty please, KF? :D And that is how to "be consistent" and "play fair" at UD, kids. keith s
@Keith #667
HeKS,
And the ONH takes logical priority over everything… The ONH is a second order issue, if not a third order issue. It does not have logical priority.
I haven’t claimed that it has “logical priority”. It’s evidence, and I’m treating it like evidence.
But Keith, you have claimed that the ONH has logical priority ... just not using those words. What you are trying to do is tell ID proponents that in order to respond to your argument they must begin by forgetting that they have positive reasons for inferring design, forgetting that they have positive reasons for thinking "unguided evolution" is not up to the task of generating macroevolutionary innovations and significant body plan changes, and forgetting what the observational evidence tells us about the nature and trend of microevolutionary changes. Then you insist that they must start by looking only at the pattern of the ONH in complete isolation from anything else and try to argue without any context whatsoever that a randomly selected being with no particular traits would just happen to choose an ONH pattern (out of allegedly trillions of other possibilities), entirely for its own sake, to organize life. Finally, you claim that unless they are able to assign a super-high probability to this completely random being (who could be a complete moron) choosing this particular organizational pattern, they must accept that "unguided evolution" explains everything, in spite of the otherwise complete lack of evidence for that claim, simply because you assert that "unguided evolution" predicts an ONH. Honestly, I'm not just saying this as an insult, but that's absolutely crazy. This is exactly what I mean when I say that you insist the ONH has logical priority. You are insisting that the ONH must be considered logically prior to all other evidence and considerations. You are insisting that no other evidence or conditional logic can be considered until the probabilities of a random being producing an ONH pattern, for it's own sake, have been determined. The thing is, there is absolutely no reason why an ID proponent has to assign logical priority to the ONH pattern in order to honestly interact with your argument. As such, by insisting that ID proponents cannot respond to your challenge unless they first make a series of completely unnecessary concessions, all you're doing is delegitimizing your challenge and ensuring that it "wins" by stacking the deck, artificially disallowing from consideration anything that could cause trouble for the argument. Now, how do you avoid delegitimizing your argument? I'm glad you asked. Let me explain. The legitimate version of your argument/challenge can ask ID proponents whether or not it is likely that life would be organized into an ONH on the design hypothesis, and then you can proceed to argue why you think it very likely would not and what you think the better explanation would be, but you cannot insist that they consider the question by first assuming that their design inferences are wrong or pretending that they do not have positive reasons for inferring design of things other than the ONH pattern itself. The reason for this should be obvious. The legitimate version of the question that your argument can ask ID Proponents is this: If your current design inferences are correct, is the ONH pattern into which life is organized something you would expect to see or something you wouldn't expect to see given the nature of your existing design inferences? Now, you may immediately think to yourself, "How does that help? Anything is consistent with the free decisions of an intelligent being." However, that's not the question. The proper question is not merely whether the ONH is consistent with design from any random designer. Rather, the question is whether there is any good reason to think the ONH pattern is consistent with and would be reasonably expected from the specific type of designer that is implied by the other effects and artifacts from which ID proponents already actively infer design. On this point there exists every possibility for a mismatch in design styles or for a conflict in designer characteristics that would be implied on a design hypothesis. Therefore, a comparison of the ONH to the previously inferred instances of design could result in a determination that the ONH pattern is actually inconsistent with the apparent design style inferred from other cases (making design a less parsimonious explanation of the whole), or is consistent but generally inconclusive, or is highly consistent and perhaps even expected, in the same way that the style of a work of art is to be expected from a particular painter even if the subject of the painting is unknown (see here for a funny example), or in the same way you might expect a particular coding style or approach from a particular programmer, which often remains consistent regardless of the specific nature of the application being developed. [EDIT: An added clarification here ... at the end of this reasoning process, the result would still not be to actively infer design from the ONH pattern itself. It would merely be to conclude that the ONH pattern either is or is not inconsistent with the expectations derived from the other active design inferences. An example of something that would inconsistent with those expectations is if the the world of life was a completely disorganized random jumble of organisms.] In this form, your argument avoids making the mistake of taking this structure: "If we begin by assuming you have no reason to think you're right, it can be shown that you have no reason to think you're right and that you are therefore very probably wrong." By insisting on the logical priority of the ONH over and above all other considerations, you are giving your argument the above structure. In essence, you are saying: "If we begin by assuming that all of your existing design inferences are merely baseless assumptions and can be ignored, thereby removing all context for judging the likelihood of an ONH pattern (or any other given pattern) being used by the putative designer, it can be shown that we have no reason to conclude that an ONH pattern is any more likely to be used than any other pattern and that ID is therefore very probably wrong." What needs to be noted is that in this sort of structure the argument is impossible to counter in principle, because even if it could be argued that there is a perfectly viable reason for why an intelligent designer would use precisely this structure in this kind of context - which is an argument I've actually made but that I've never seen you address - you can simply claim that we have no way to know that the random designer of no known characteristics would happen to be one who is smart enough to do so, or is so inclined even if smart enough. In other words, by insisting on the logical priority of the ONH, you make your argument necessarily impossible to answer to your satisfaction, not because it is good, but because it is structured in such a way as to make it unanswerable in principle. There is no reason for an ID Proponent to care about this kind of argument at all. At least not in the sense of feeling challenged by it or feeling that there is "a lot at stake". However, they may very well care about showing how trivial and ineffectual it is, as you've seen here repeatedly over the past month in multiple threads, though you've taken the attention for something else entirely. And they are all the more likely to be interested in it for this reason when the person proposing it advertises it as a knock-down argument showing ID is irrational. Of course, your argument can still be attacked at every point for further errors in reasoning - as it has been - but unless you recognize the way you delegitimize your entire argument by insisting on the logical priority of the ONH, you're never going to recognize the validity of most of the counter-arguments. Instead, you will just keep telling yourself that you have an airtight argument, and you'll be right, but it will be airtight only in the specific way you're using it, because the way you're using it will be ultimately circular. I also want to point out that while this post has been very focused on just one aspect of your argument, I've addressed pretty much every aspect of your argument again in the past two or three days, starting with the PoI problem and working backwards through pretty much every step from there, so feel free to scroll through my comments in the last couple days and respond to whatever you like. HeKS
HeKS Then you know that the more 2000 comments on Keith S's supposed bomb is futile because each group is applying different rules. Truthfully these two groups don't even apply the same logic to anything............. So what's the point? for the fence sitters? I doubt it..... Andre
Andre, I understand what you're saying. In case you haven't seen these: DOES IT MATTER WHAT WE BELIEVE ABOUT MORALITY? (A guest-post by HeKS) Reply To An Argument Against Objective Morality: When Words Lose All Meaning Feel free to peruse the comments as well for a lot of additional discussion. HeKS
HeKS The dilemma we have is this, a group of people out there are of the opinion that there is no such thing as objective moral values. This makes any type of fruitful discussion impossible because when there is only subjective moral values there is no actual framework to work within. I am not implying that some people have more or less moral values just that due to the differences in beliefs no proper framework of civil discourse can ever be attained. Quite frankly subjectivism renders everything pointless. Because true or false does not exists in such a framework. Andre
Andre, I'd like to add to my #719 that there's no "division" implied between me and anyone else in simply taking my responsibility as the thread owner seriously and trying to keep the discussion as on topic as possible. I had no ill will towards Pachyaena when I asked him to stay on topic, or you, or KF. The difference is in how Pachyaena responded. But I'm not going to say anymore about that since I've told Pachyaena that I'll delete any further comments of the same nature as before and I don't want to contravene that myself. HeKS
Andre, Yes, well, I just saw Keith's post now after posting my comment to KF, but I don't require goading from him in order to be consistent and play fair. HeKS
@KF #715
Point 3 out and out declares that ethics is groundless in the system of thought. That is there are no genuinely objectively binding obligations, given the IS-OUGHT gap of such a system. That points in turn to Hume’s guillotine argument that can only be answered that we do find empirically that we are bound by ought (and that comes out when Materialists routinely accuse us of being unfair), and that there is therefore only one place to find the IS that grounds OUGHT.
As you know, I completely agree on this philosophically. As you may recall, it was the first thing I wrote about when I was invited to become a contributor here. That said, if you want to address this issue at length, it would probably be a better idea to start a new OP on it where a legitimate discussion can be entertained. It's one thing to directly discuss the debating tactics being used by certain people in this thread in the context of their own specific actions, but I'd rather not have us go off on a tangent about materialist ethical philosophies in general here, however much the topic interests me. It would be hypocritical of me to ask the anti-ID people to keep the discussion in this thread narrowly focused and on-topic while engaging in digressions with people on my side of the debate. Also, I typically prefer not to attribute the specific actions and misbehavior of particular individuals to their worldview unless I have overwhelming reason to think it's truly the culprit. As you well know, people do not always act in a way that is logically or philosophically consistent with their own worldview, and even when they do it may not be because of their worldview, so blaming their misbehavior or debating tactics purely on their worldview (especially in the absence of them invoking it as justification) is inherently problematic. They could be behaving poorly for an entirely different reason. In any case, if you want to discuss this further can you please start a new OP? HeKS
HeKS And you are witnessing the materialist tactics first hand....... Divide and conquer and this is done through intellectual dishonesty, obtuseness, ignorance and flat out denial, followed by trying to weigh us down with guilt for being such bad immoral Christians. If I had a penny for every time this has happened I'd be richer than Bill Gates....... Andre
HeKS, It's time for you to scold kairosfocus for his off-topic comment. We can't have him derailing the thread, can we? :-) keith s
HeKS: Pardon an intervention. While there may be exceptions, there is a pattern that is too sustained, for too long . . . years, with the circle of evolutionary materialism (and fellow traveller view) objectors, that we must conclude per evident fact, that there is plainly a zero concessions policy in force. For evolutionary materialists, the implications of their view that undermine both reason and the only stable ground of ethics should not be overlooked. If that is doubted, let us look at Prof Wm B Provine's well-known 1998 Darwin Day Address at University of Tennessee (a significant site in itself, given the history of the 1920's at Dayton):
Naturalistic evolution has clear consequences that Charles Darwin understood perfectly. 1) No gods worth having exist; 2) no life after death exists; 3) no ultimate foundation for ethics exists; 4) no ultimate meaning in life exists; and 5) human free will is nonexistent . . . . The first 4 implications are so obvious to modern naturalistic evolutionists that I will spend little time defending them. Human free will, however, is another matter. Even evolutionists have trouble swallowing that implication. I will argue that humans are locally determined systems that make choices. They have, however, no free will . . .
Point 3 out and out declares that ethics is groundless in the system of thought. That is there are no genuinely objectively binding obligations, given the IS-OUGHT gap of such a system. That points in turn to Hume's guillotine argument that can only be answered that we do find empirically that we are bound by ought (and that comes out when Materialists routinely accuse us of being unfair), and that there is therefore only one place to find the IS that grounds OUGHT. The foundation of the world. Hence, the relevance of worldviews considerations, in attempted reasoned discussion. There is but one serious candidate, the inherently good creator God who is a necessary and maximally great being, with what that entails. Second,
a: if we lack free will, b: if our cognitive capacities are in effect computational devices grinding away much as Leibniz's wheels in his mill analogy, c: under the blind forces of chance and necessity influenced by genetic and socio-cultural etc conditioning, then d: the ability to think, warrant, know and follow a reasoned argument by rational choice and commitment to the truth is decisively undermined. For, e: logical inference is a volitional matter, and knowledge in effect is warranted, credibly true belief.
That is what is in the stakes. Plantinga has a sobering point. So does the famed evolutionary theorist, J B S Haldane:
"It seems to me immensely unlikely that mind is a mere by-product of matter. For if my mental processes are determined wholly by the motions of atoms in my brain I have no reason to suppose that my beliefs are true. They may be sound chemically, but that does not make them sound logically. And hence I have no reason for supposing my brain to be composed of atoms. In order to escape from this necessity of sawing away the branch on which I am sitting, so to speak, I am compelled to believe that mind is not wholly conditioned by matter.” ["When I am dead," in Possible Worlds: And Other Essays [1927], Chatto and Windus: London, 1932, reprint, p.209.]
I suggest, that ethics cannot exist without freedom to think, value, genuinely choose and act in that light. To be significantly free morally governed agents. (And BTW, if you look up the Loeb-Leopold Murder trial and Darrow's closing argument, then the intended closing argument by Bryan for the Scopes trial, you will see that these themes did come up as applicable in the real world as sobering influences we need to face and ponder very carefully indeed. Cf here on in context for a 101.) So, I suggest that some aspects of what we are seeing, are a manifestation of the ideological factional dynamics working out of consequences of evolutionary materialist worldviews pointed out since Plato in The Laws, Bk X c. 360 BC, warned:
Ath. . . .[The avant garde philosophers and poets, c. 360 BC] say that fire and water, and earth and air [i.e the classical "material" elements of the cosmos], all exist by nature and chance, and none of them by art . . . [such that] all that is in the heaven, as well as animals and all plants, and all the seasons come from these elements, not by the action of mind, as they say, or of any God, or from art, but as I was saying, by nature and chance only [ --> that is, evolutionary materialism is ancient and would trace all things to blind chance and mechanical necessity] . . . . [Thus, they hold] that the principles of justice have no existence at all in nature, but that mankind are always disputing about them and altering them; and that the alterations which are made by art and by law have no basis in nature, but are of authority for the moment and at the time at which they are made.- [ --> Relativism, too, is not new; complete with its radical amorality rooted in a worldview that has no foundational IS that can ground OUGHT.] These, my friends, are the sayings of wise men, poets and prose writers, which find a way into the minds of youth. They are told by them that the highest right is might [ --> Evolutionary materialism -- having no IS that can properly ground OUGHT -- leads to the promotion of amorality on which the only basis for "OUGHT" is seen to be might (and manipulation: might in "spin")], and in this way the young fall into impieties, under the idea that the Gods are not such as the law bids them imagine; and hence arise factions [ --> Evolutionary materialism-motivated amorality "naturally" leads to continual contentions and power struggles influenced by that amorality], these philosophers inviting them to lead a true life according to nature, that is, to live in real dominion over others [ --> such amoral factions, if they gain power, "naturally" tend towards ruthless abuse], and not in legal subjection to them.
Obviously, by no means will all materialists act like that, but we need to ponder the clear factional pattern Plato identified ever so long ago and its seeming relevance to our own time. I repeat (with a slightly altered image), the lessons of history were written in tears and blood, and if we refuse to heed them, we will write them over and over again in much the same ink. As Schaeffer so often noted, ideas have consequences. KF kairosfocus
Andre, Thanks for the agreeable response. It's much appreciated. HeKS
HeKS Duly noted. Andre
KeithS
My argument in the OP. If you can’t figure it out, don’t worry about it. Just step aside so I can discuss it with your smarter comrades.
Oh, but I can figure it out. You can't articulate your argument because you don't have an argument. Your OP is nothing but a series of disconnected claims and irrational babblings. If you had an argument, you would make an attempt to meet my challenge. I am calling your bluff. Show your cards. Why are you afraid? StephenB
@Andre #709
that is the issue in these discussions materialists are unable to concede anything and one has to wonder why? Superiority complex? Obtuseness? Ignorance?
Andre, Please let's not fall into the trap of copying Pachyaena's generalized attacks on all people who hold a particular perspective, like materialism. I understand you may feel this way based on your experience with people here, but it's not particularly conducive to balanced rational discussion (which we at least should be trying to promote) if we simply paint an entire group of people with the same brush and assume that it's their underlying worldview that necessarily makes them behave as they do. HeKS
@Pachyaena #708 You've just shown, yet again, that you don't know what you're talking about. Look for the comments I've made on this site in the past few months and you'll find I've called some fellow ID proponents to task multiple times for making unhelpful contributions to a discussion that consisted of nothing but insults and for attacking the motives and character of anti-ID people in situations where it was unwarranted, even defending the anti-ID people in those cases where it was appropriate. I've also offered clarification to my fellow ID proponents when it seemed to me they were misunderstanding and therefore unintentionally misrepresenting the opponent's argument. Heck, I did both things in this very thread with Mung, who at least as far as I can tell doesn't seem to be a big fan of mine for that very reason: He thinks I'm too nice, patient, fair and charitable with you folks when you don't deserve it. So, as I've said, you've created a fantasy in your head and projected it onto me. If you want to hold on to that delusion, that's fine. In any case, I hope you've gotten all this stuff off your chest, because I'm done allowing these ridiculous distractions that consist of absolutely nothing other than foolish, generalized personal attacks. If you plan to try posting any more comments of this nature I suggest you save your work, because if I see it I'm going to delete it. What you've written up to this point will remain 'to stand as a testament to your character'. HeKS
Pachyaena Boo Hoo..... cry me a river, Goes to show you objective moral values does exist, people ignore it until they feel wronged and then you see them proclaim how they've been wronged. Instead of crying about things why not start with engaging in an honest manner, that is the issue in these discussions materialists are unable to concede anything and one has to wonder why? Superiority complex? Obtuseness? Ignorance? Why are they unable to admit it when they are wrong? Andre
HeKS, thanks for helping to confirm my points about you and your 'fellow traveler ilk'. And speaking of your 'fellow traveler ilk', Mapou is also greatly helping to confirm my points in this thread: https://uncommondesc.wpengine.com/darwinism/creationists-invent-time-travel/ I'm sure (NOT) that you and many of your 'fellow traveler ilk', with your 'is/ought', 'God-grounded', thoroughly honest, righteous, loving, impeccably pure principles of divine right reason morals, will be over there any minute now to 'correct' Mapou's insults, false accusations, motive mongering, strawmen, illegitimate arguments, dishonesty, misrepresentations, and two-faced out of thin air off-topic attacking sneering taunting ranting emotion-laden out to lunch nonsensical Marxist message dominance agit-prop distractive red herrings led out to strawmen soaked in oily, incendiary ad hominems and ignited to poison, confuse and polarise the atmosphere. Pachyaena
Keith S
My argument in the OP. If you can’t figure it out, don’t worry about it. Just step aside so I can discuss it with your smarter comrades.
You have been unable to discuss this with anyone because your dogmatic belief system has overridden your logic! Andre
StephenB:
Let me ask yet a fourth time: What is your argument for unguided macro evolution?
My argument in the OP. If you can't figure it out, don't worry about it. Just step aside so I can discuss it with your smarter comrades. keith s
Keith S
Development is guided from within in a way that evolution is not, so the analogy is poor.
Are you admitting in your own twisted way that there is no such thing as unguided evolution? Because you have to explain once again how unguided processes created a guided process to prevent unguided processes from happening. As with PCD, you have to explain this highly regulated process in the context of unguided evolution. Now please stop beating around the bush and get onto point..... Can you demonstrate this with any verifiable evidence? Holding my breath in the vain hope that you can finally substantiate your claim. Andre
KEithS to CharlesM
Perhaps it would help if you would express your entire counterargument.
Perhaps CharlesM will respond to you as you responded to me.
If you can’t discern what the argument is, there’s little point in engaging you. Come back if you figure it out.
StephenB
KeithS
If you can’t discern what the argument is, there’s little point in engaging you.
I am afraid that you don't understand. You have presented a series of disconnected claims, but you have presented no argument for unguided evolution. Let me ask yet a fourth time: What is your argument for unguided macro evolution? StephenB
CharlieM, Development is guided from within in a way that evolution is not, so the analogy is poor. Perhaps it would help if you would express your entire counterargument. keith s
StephenB, If you can't discern what the argument is, there's little point in engaging you. Come back if you figure it out. keith s
Keith, of course there are differences between the unfolding of an individual organism and the evolution of life as a whole. But there are also many similarities. Do you agree that they both produce objective nested hierarchies? And do you agree that an individual's development is guided (from within if you like)? Answer these and I will answer your questions (although my beliefs aren't particularly relevant to the debate). CharlieM
KeithS
Have you noticed that your fellow IDers are all trying to refute an argument of mine? That is the argument I presented in my OP, and it’s the argument you need to address.
They are addressing several different claims that you have made in your OP, all of which are different, so they cannot be responding to the argument. What is it? StephenB
CharlieM, The development of an individual organism is quite different from evolution. The genotype remains the same (except for the occasional mutation), and the final result -- an adult organism -- is more or less assured as long as the process unfolds normally. Also, do you think that development is guided by something outside the organism? If so, what? I just can't see how your example is analogous to my argument. keith s
WJM and Phinehas, The interplanetary probe example fails for a number of reasons. First, interplanetary probes don't follow perfectly ballistic trajectories. Course corrections are needed along the way, and orbit insertion requires a significant change in momentum, accomplished either by a burn or by aerobraking. Second, even a perfectly ballistic trajectory would be a poor analogy for evolution. A ballistic trajectory is determined by initial conditions. Evolution has a significant random component, since it depends on mutations and random environmental changes that are happening continually. At the time of the dinosaurs, do you really think you could have predicted the arrival of humans millions of years later? Third, an interplanetary probe does not evolve into millions of complex forms as it travels. Minus a software upgrade or two, the probe at the destination is the same probe you started with. In the case of evolution, complexity is being produced continually along the way, yet the ONH evidence shows that the process is unguided. If unguided evolution can produce complexity after the LUCA, what is your basis for arguing that the complexity of the LUCA itself requires a design explanation? Fourth, if you only believe that life was designed, but that mutation, selection and drift proceeded unguided from that point on, then congratulations -- you're a "neo-Darwinist" and my argument should not trouble you. But most IDers will disagree with you, because they want to believe that humans were an intended target, not an accident. Fifth, we know why interplanetary probes are placed on their particular trajectories. We know what the goal is, we know what the constraints are, and we know what the costs are. None of this is true in the case of the purported Designer. keith s
Keith, from http://www.iscid.org/papers/Engle_SymmetryInEvolution_112802.pdf "Very early on in [the individual embryonic] development [of mammals], the cells that develop from the zygote [i.e., the egg cell] differentiate into three types. One type will make the skin and nerves, one type will make muscles and bone, and the third will make organs and blood. A bit later, the three types further differentiate into individual organs and tissues." Can you tell me why the cells referred to above cannot be grouped into an objective nested hierarchy? CharlieM
StephenB:
I read your response to Phinehas. Now, without further ado, please make your case for unguided evolution on the basis of ONH’s.
keiths:
Read my OP.
StephenB:
I did read your OP. Now please make your case for unguided evolution.
StephenB, Have you noticed that your fellow IDers are all trying to refute an argument of mine? That is the argument I presented in my OP, and it's the argument you need to address. Keep the "principles of right reason" in mind as you do so. :-) keith s
CharlieM,
Firstly Keith, you must realise by now that you are not arguing against the science of ID but against the beliefs of some, but by no means all, ID advocates.
My argument applies to practically everyone in the ID camp, as I explained in my OP:
I’ve mentioned three groups of IDers so far: 1) creationists who dispute the evidence for common descent; 2) creationists who accept the evidence for common descent, but believe that it can be equally well explained by the hypothesis of common design; and 3) IDers who accept common descent but believe that unguided evolution can’t account for macroevolutionary change. Let’s look at these groups in turn, and at why the the evidence for common descent is a serious problem for each of them.
Though I didn't mention it explicitly, guided evolution via front-loading is also vulnerable to my argument. CharlieM:
And secondly, a question for you, Keith: Ben is hanging out with his biologist friend. The biologist explains to him that his body has developed from a single cell and all of his bodily organs and cells can be traced back to this original cell, forming an ONH. His body is the result of a guided process. The original cell was aiming towards a target, that target being Ben’s adult human body. “Don’t be ridiculous,” Ben replies. “It is obvious that the best explanation that the process is unguided because it produces an ONH and it is clear that an ONH is trillions of times more likely to be formed by an unguided process than a guided one.” Who has the better explanation, Ben or his friend?
You don't seem to understand what an ONH is. Take a look at this section of Theobald. keith s
Phinehas #674,
And ’round and ’round we go. Whee! Your shell game is becoming obvious. Use your PoI argument to cover over deficiencies in your “unguided” assumption, and when the PoI is refuted, fall back on your “unguided” assertion to cover the deficiencies in your PoI argument.
We're going in circles because you keep making the same mistake. You think my argument depends on the principle of indifference, but it doesn't. Even without the PoI, we have this:
1. Unguided evolution makes a one-in-trillions prediction that is spectacularly confirmed. 2. ID lacks a probability distribution and cannot make a prediction. It’s still completely lopsided in favor of UE.
Spend some time thinking about this, Phinehas. The PoI is not essential to my argument. It's just a bonus. keith s
Phinehas: Actually, WJM didn’t say anything about ballistic or non-ballistic paths He said, "An object’s path to another planet through space and achieving a stable orbit can be sufficiently explained via natural forces, starting with where it was first observed and ending with the orbit." That's what we mean by a ballistic trajectory. Phinehas: Can we agree that the non-ballistic path of a rocket can also be sufficiently explained via natural forces? Else, what supernatural forces would be needed to explain it? You're conflating different senses of what is meant by natural. In this case, the distinction is between natural and artificial. Zachriel
Keith,
HeKS,
And the ONH takes logical priority over everything… The ONH is a second order issue, if not a third order issue. It does not have logical priority.
I haven’t claimed that it has “logical priority”. It’s evidence, and I’m treating it like evidence.
I will try to get to this later tonight and show you exactly want I mean. HeKS
Oh, Pachyaena, I can't even take you seriously. Have you gotten out all your whining about imagined misdeeds yet?
I asked questions that you (and your ‘ilk’) should have no complaints about answering. The questions (and your answers if you weren’t too dishonest and cowardly to provide them) are relevant.
I was actually completely honest about the fact that I personally think the designer is supernatural (though more based on the evidence of cosmology than biology) and I also clarified that I was not a Young Earth Creationist. I asked you what relevance your other questions had and you responded with childish motive mongering. Your questions, which were directed to me, are utterly irrelevant to the topic of this thread or the nature of my arguments. I know you wish I were using private personal beliefs as the basis for my argumentation but I'm not. I guess that drives you crazy, as evidenced by your emotion-laden rants.
Every ‘topic’ that you IDers bring up on this blog has to do with your religious beliefs/motivations and agenda
More nonsensical ranting and motive mongering.
and you IDers constantly bring up, question, and/or attack the actual or imagined motivations/agenda of your opponents, including their religious beliefs or lack thereof.
Oh yes? And where exactly have I been constantly bringing up Keith's personal beliefs and agenda to prove that his argument is wrong? I certainly think Keith does have an agenda and that it impacts his debate tactics, but his agenda is irrelevant to the strength of his argument (or the lack thereof) and I've never suggested otherwise. You also clearly have an agenda that affects your "debate" tactics, but that can't have any impact on your argument because you don't have one. Just rants.
If it weren’t for IDers’ religious beliefs/motivations and ‘wedge’ agenda this blog wouldn’t exist.
More ranting. I don't have a 'wedge' agenda, Pachyaena. Find a new shtick.
In your march of folly you’re making a huge stink and spewing ad hominem laced, falsely accusatory, emotional rants about me and my “simple” questions (and about Keith, etc.)
More nonsensical ranting. When someone comes along and taunts people to respond to his argument but then completely ignores the responses, as Keith has, it is perfectly legitimate to point out his intellectually dishonest tactics in addition to showing why his argument is wrong. An "ad hominem argument" is an attack on the person in place of an actual response that counters their argument. I've countered all of Keith's points repeatedly, only to be ignored, at which point I began including comments about the person in the form of pointing out his tactics, and that he was ignoring the counter-arguments rather than engaging them honestly and substantively, all while he was throwing out an endless string of taunts. Not all ad hominem statements are invalid, Pachyanes. And pointing out that he is constantly misrepresenting me is perfectly valid. But, of course, you have no criticism to offer Keith. I guess he's just a paragon of virtue and a shining example of how to conduct a rational debate, huh? And by the way, when I referred to your "simple" off-topic questions, I wasn't insulting the questions as being "simple". I was saying that you started out simply asking off-topic questions but then progressed to intentionally insulting off-topic rants that had nothing to do with the discussion, and that it was the latter that led me to warn you that continuing in the same vein would result in moderation action. I haven't followed through on that threat yet, but I'm seeing that I probably should, as you're adding absolutely nothing to the discussion other than motive-mongering insults and rants.
and you’re employing the usual IDer typical strawmen, red herrings, and incendiary insulting turnabout radical message dominance agit prop tactics (including threats of censorship) with a particular focus on attainting those who dare object (Hi KF) to your obviously two-faced, dishonest games. Kindly do better.
More ranting. I haven't used strawmen. I haven't used red herrings. I've directly addressed Keith's arguments according to the strongest interpretation of them that seemed possible. And if in any place I ever even slightly misinterpreted Keith's claims and he clarified them, I accepted the clarification. You have built a fantasy in your head, Pachyanes. You clearly have no objectivity whatsoever and nothing you say can be taken seriously.
IDers even bash ‘theistic evolutionists’ (and I know why).
And where was I bashing them again?
P.S. “I drew attention to his tactics in the hope that it would shame him into some honest interaction with counter-arguments, but to no avail.” Look who’s talking.
You're describing your fantasy again. I've responded to every legitimate argument Keith has made. I don't have to respond over and over to his misrepresentations and he has offered virtually no legitimate counter-arguments whatsoever. He's only repeated the original assertions that had already been responded to. On the rare occasion he's offered something even resembling a counter-argument I've responded.
P.P.S. “…whereas he continues to misrepresent my arguments over and over again, even after being corrected.” Look who’s talking.
You're in a fantasy world.
P.P.P.S. “…his debating tactics, which are transparently dishonest.” Look who’s talking.
Fantasy, Pachyanes. It's not the same as reality. Learn the difference if you want to be taken seriously.
P.P.P.P.S. “And have I falsely accused him of things?” Yes.
I misinterpreted his meaning and retracted the accusation when he clarified, Pachyanes. Get over it. I didn't just make something up out of thin air and I didn't even require him to explain the implications of what he'd previously said that suggested the hypocrisy to me in the first place. I simply took him at his word.
F/N P.P.P.P.P.S. “Keith, you’re out to lunch.” Look who’s talking.
You. You're talking. And you are out to lunch, so I guess that was fitting. It's clear from the nature of your ranting "contributions" to this thread that you don't know what honest and serious debate entails, which is why you quite absurdly think I'm the problem, and why I simply can't take you seriously. HeKS
Zachriel:
Phinehas: Surely you are not suggesting that a rocket firing its engines would somehow violate the laws of nature or be a supernatural event, are you? Z: No. Just that a rocket would move the object in a non-ballistic path, and that’s not what we supposedly observed.
Actually, WJM didn't say anything about ballistic or non-ballistic paths (though I will agree that he probably meant ballistic, based on the context and his expressed desire to be generous to keiths' argument). What he said was, "sufficiently explained via natural forces." Can we agree that the non-ballistic path of a rocket can also be sufficiently explained via natural forces? Else, what supernatural forces would be needed to explain it? I don't say this (entirely) to be pedantic, but to point out the exact sort of word play that I've seen used here by ID critics. There's no need to respond, since I trust I've made my point. Phinehas
Zachriel:
Sure. We would look for other explanations, but if we found a human-like device, then most scientists would probably hypothesize something on the order of a human-like organism that evolved on a planet revolving around a star.
Haha! What you've carefully left out is quite telling. The scientists would first infer that the device was designed, and then "hypothesize [that the device had been designed by] something on the order of a human-like organism." Welcome to ID! Phinehas
Phinehas: Surely you are not suggesting that a rocket firing its engines would somehow violate the laws of nature or be a supernatural event, are you? No. Just that a rocket would move the object in a non-ballistic path, and that's not what we supposedly observed. Phinehas: If a rocket ship approached from outer space and took up orbit around the planet Mars, would this really change how appropriate the inference would be? Sure. We would look for other explanations, but if we found a human-like device, then most scientists would probably hypothesize something on the order of a human-like organism that evolved on a planet revolving around a star. Zachriel
Zachriel:
Z quotes WJM: An object’s path to another planet through space and achieving a stable orbit can be sufficiently explained via natural forces, starting with where it was first observed and ending with the orbit.
Surely you are not suggesting that a rocket firing its engines would somehow violate the laws of nature or be a supernatural event, are you? Even so, I suspect you have WJM's meaning right. Which was why I said, "WJM was being quite generous with his analogy in this regard. I believe my previous post describes something a bit closer to the biology situation. We are only seeing the end-product and extrapolating backward."
In any case, we recognize it because William J Murray is describing something people recognize as something that may have been designed by humans.
If a rocket ship approached from outer space and took up orbit around the planet Mars, would this really change how appropriate the inference would be? If we sent an exploratory mission to the object and found what appeared to be technology inside it that was obviously not designed by humans, would that really change the validity of a design inference? Phinehas
Phinehas: And here I thought WJM was saying that a rocket ship with, “highly complex pieces of machinery with highly integrated, precision-machined, functional parts controlled by what appears to be a highly advanced computer system,” would imply design. Or in other words, something that looks like what a human would make implies it was made by something human-like. Phinehas: Whether the object’s path followed a strictly ballistic trajectory or not is open to debate. William J Murray: An object’s path to another planet through space and achieving a stable orbit can be sufficiently explained via natural forces, starting with where it was first observed and ending with the orbit. Phinehas (quoting): “The path it took is of no importance compared to the complex, organized, functional nature of the materials of the object itself, which clearly require ID as part of their explanation.” The object may or may not be functional. In any case, we recognize it because William J Murray is describing something people recognize as something that may have been designed by humans. Zachriel
Zachriel:
It’s the same reasoning used by modern ID: unexplained complexity implies design.
And here I thought WJM was saying that a rocket ship with, "highly complex pieces of machinery with highly integrated, precision-machined, functional parts controlled by what appears to be a highly advanced computer system," would imply design. But maybe WJM isn't "modern ID," whatever that is.
The device clearly wasn’t used during the period of observation because the object followed a ballistic trajectory.
WJM was being quite generous with his analogy in this regard. I believe my previous post describes something a bit closer to the biology situation. We are only seeing the end-product and extrapolating backward. Whether the object's path followed a strictly ballistic trajectory or not is open to debate. And claiming that it might not have is not the same as claiming that any laws of nature were violated. But all of this is really a distraction, since, as WJM put it, "The path it took is of no importance compared to the complex, organized, functional nature of the materials of the object itself, which clearly require ID as part of their explanation." Phinehas
Parallel to WJM's analogy: keiths: By using physics, we can extrapolate backward and see that an unguided gravity assist maneuver was used to place the object in areosynchronous orbit. IDists: OK, I get the gravity assist maneuver thing, but you just tacked on the "unguided" part. A gravity assist maneuver explains the data whether it was guided or unguided. keiths: It can't have been guided, since a pilot could have steered the rocket anywhere! IDists: But what if a pilot, you know, wanted to put the rocket in areosynchronous orbit? keiths: We know nothing about the pilot! Except that we must assume he could have steered the rocket anywhere! And since he could have steered the rocket anywhere, the odds are a trillion-to-one that he would have steered it into an areosynchronous orbit. IDists: I'm pretty sure that's not right, but in any case, you realize that ID is open to the possibility that an intelligent engineer just set up an initial trajectory to ensure the object reached the proper orbit, don't you? keiths: A pilot could have steered the rocket anywhere! And even if this is somehow illegitimate, an unguided gravity assist maneuver explains the data a trillion times better. IDists: But you just tacked on the "unguided" part again. keiths: It can't have been guided, since a pilot could have steered the rocket anywhere! IDists: *collective sigh* Phinehas
William J Murray: Zachriel is apparently attempting to draw an equivalence between the regular patterns predicted by gravity and the complex, specified, functional code-driven mechanisms we find in a cell by appealing to human fallibility. Human faulty reasoning. Zachriel
William J Murray: Upon examination of the object, IDists find out it is a highly complex pieces of machinery with highly integrated, precision-machined, functional parts controlled by what appears to be a highly advanced computer system. In other words, it looks like something a human would devise. We might hypothesize a human-like cause. Zachriel
Phinehas: Are you saying that the rocket in WJM’s analogy wasn’t designed? Or that we shouldn’t infer that it was designed? No, we're pointing to the historical situation where the complexity of planetary orbits led to a claim of intelligent design (angels). It's the same reasoning used by modern ID: unexplained complexity implies design. Phinehas: Are you saying that the rocket in WJM’s analogy wasn’t designed? The device clearly wasn't used during the period of observation because the object followed a ballistic trajectory. Zachriel
1. Unguided evolution makes a one-in-trillions prediction that is spectacularly confirmed.
That is your unsupported and oft-refuted claim, anyway
2. ID lacks a probability distribution and cannot make a prediction.
And that is also your unsupported and oft-refuted claim. Your willful ignorance is not support for your claims. Your misrepresentations are not support for your claims. And your delusions are not support for your claims. Joe
Zachriel is apparently attempting to draw an equivalence between the regular patterns predicted by gravity and the complex, specified, functional code-driven mechanisms we find in a cell by appealing to human fallibility. William J Murray
HeKS, pardon, and for record (lol), I asked questions that you (and your 'ilk') should have no complaints about answering. The questions (and your answers if you weren't too dishonest and cowardly to provide them) are relevant. Every 'topic' that you IDers bring up on this blog has to do with your religious beliefs/motivations and agenda, and you IDers constantly bring up, question, and/or attack the actual or imagined motivations/agenda of your opponents, including their religious beliefs or lack thereof.* If it weren't for IDers' religious beliefs/motivations and 'wedge' agenda this blog wouldn't exist. In your march of folly you're making a huge stink and spewing ad hominem laced, falsely accusatory, emotional rants about me and my "simple" questions (and about Keith, etc.) and you're employing the usual IDer typical strawmen, red herrings, and incendiary insulting turnabout radical message dominance agit prop tactics (including threats of censorship) with a particular focus on attainting those who dare object (Hi KF) to your obviously two-faced, dishonest games. Kindly do better. *IDers even bash 'theistic evolutionists' (and I know why). P.S. "I drew attention to his tactics in the hope that it would shame him into some honest interaction with counter-arguments, but to no avail." Look who's talking. P.P.S. "...whereas he continues to misrepresent my arguments over and over again, even after being corrected." Look who's talking. P.P.P.S. "...his debating tactics, which are transparently dishonest." Look who's talking. P.P.P.P.S. "And have I falsely accused him of things?" Yes. F/N P.P.P.P.P.S. "Keith, you’re out to lunch." Look who's talking. Pachyaena
Zachriel:
You have the historical order reversed. In ancient times, it took a very complex device to emulate the movements of the planets, with many precisely arranged gears. Humans took this as evidence that the planetary orbits were extraordinarily complex, and so implying design.
Please clarify your argument for me. I'm not getting it. Are you saying that the rocket in WJM's analogy wasn't designed? Or that we shouldn't infer that it was designed? Because of this historical order reversal thing? Or (as I suspect) are you merely nitpicking to give the appearance that you've responded to the argument even though you haven't actually engaged it in any substantive way? Phinehas
William J Murray: Upon examination of the object, IDists find out it is a highly complex pieces of machinery with highly integrated, precision-machined, functional parts controlled by what appears to be a highly advanced computer system. You have the historical order reversed. In ancient times, it took a very complex device to emulate the movements of the planets, with many precisely arranged gears. Humans took this as evidence that the planetary orbits were extraordinarily complex, and so implying design. Zachriel
keiths:
You’re not getting it. Suppose you were correct that the use of the PoI is illegitimate. In that case, the only part of my argument that would be ruled out would be the automatic use of a flat probability distribution for the design pattern. That’s it. So we would have this: 1. Unguided evolution makes a one-in-trillions prediction that is spectacularly confirmed.
Ooops! There went the short-term memory again. As I responded before:
And, as a reminder to keiths, your vacuous claims about “unguided evolution” have been dismantled. You merely assume the “unguided” part and keep ignoring the fact that it is only branching descent with vertical inheritance, whether guided or unguided, that will produce an ONH. Please try really hard to wrap your brain around this: Whether or not branching descent with vertical inheritance is guided or unguided, an ONH will be produced. The issue of guidance is orthogonal. This is why ID finds your argument trivial, and, but for the opportunity to point out how poorly some ID critics reason, ultimately boring.
And 'round and 'round we go. Whee! Your shell game is becoming obvious. Use your PoI argument to cover over deficiencies in your "unguided" assumption, and when the PoI is refuted, fall back on your "unguided" assertion to cover the deficiencies in your PoI argument. So, will you now come back again with more assertions that rely on the PoI argument to cover the shortcomings in your "unguided" argument? The Magic 8 Ball says: Signs point to yes! Phinehas
Let's look at a different example to put Keith's argument in perspective (we'll assume some things in Keith's favor to illustrate): An object's path to another planet through space and achieving a stable orbit can be sufficiently explained via natural forces, starting with where it was first observed and ending with the orbit. Upon examination of the object, IDists find out it is a highly complex pieces of machinery with highly integrated, precision-machined, functional parts controlled by what appears to be a highly advanced computer system. Upon finding this out about the object, IDists theorize that the object was intelligently designed. Keith comes along and waves his hands, dismissing that idea. "From the moment we first saw this object, its path can be fully account for by inertia, gravity and other natural forces. Not once did it change course in an manner not consistent with natural laws." Keith continues: "Think about it; if a intelligent being was guiding that rocket, he could have made it go in any direction he wanted, but he just so happened to make it go in a path that entirely coincides with natural forces? Don't be silly! Since we know nothing about the supposed designer of the object, we can make no assumptions about where he wanted the object to go or by what path; there are trillions of destinations and paths available!" Keith finishes his argument: "Since design cannot even make a prediction about the path and natural forces predicts it perfectly, it's obvious that natural forces is the better explanation for the object and its path." The IDists look at each other perplexed, then back at Keith. "But Keith," they attempt to explain, "we're not basing our ID claim on the path the object took, but rather on the nature of the object itself. The path it took is of no importance compared to the complex, organized, functional nature of the materials of the object itself, which clearly require ID as part of their explanation." "Nonsense," Keith insists. "If you cannot tell me why your supposed intelligent designer would choose this particular path out of so many others available, there can be no finding of ID as the better explanation." William J Murray
KeithS
Read my OP.
I did read your OP. Now please make your case for unguided evolution. StephenB
StephenB, Read my OP.
I did read your OP. Now please make your case for unguided evolution. StephenB
Firstly Keith, you must realise by now that you are not arguing against the science of ID but against the beliefs of some, but by no means all, ID advocates. And secondly, a question for you, Keith: Ben is hanging out with his biologist friend. The biologist explains to him that his body has developed from a single cell and all of his bodily organs and cells can be traced back to this original cell, forming an ONH. His body is the result of a guided process. The original cell was aiming towards a target, that target being Ben's adult human body. "Don't be ridiculous," Ben replies. "It is obvious that the best explanation that the process is unguided because it produces an ONH and it is clear that an ONH is trillions of times more likely to be formed by an unguided process than a guided one." Who has the better explanation, Ben or his friend? CharlieM
StephenB, Read my OP. keith s
KeithS
It’s “ONH”, Stephen, not “OHN”. Do you know what it stands for?
Of course. A typo is a typo.
You’re making the same mistake as Phinehas. See my reply to him.
I read your response to Phinehas. Now, without further ado, please make your case for unguided evolution on the basis of ONH's. StephenB
HeKS,
And the ONH takes logical priority over everything... The ONH is a second order issue, if not a third order issue. It does not have logical priority.
I haven't claimed that it has "logical priority". It's evidence, and I'm treating it like evidence. The evidence overwhelmingly supports UE and undermines ID, so like any rational person, I choose the hypothesis that is well-supported. keith s
Phinehas:
The context of what you’ve quoted was your, “…even if it were somehow illegitimate to use the PoI…” But now you’ve simply fallen back on assertions that require the PoI.
Phinehas, You're not getting it. Suppose you were correct that the use of the PoI is illegitimate. In that case, the only part of my argument that would be ruled out would be the automatic use of a flat probability distribution for the design pattern. That's it. So we would have this: 1. Unguided evolution makes a one-in-trillions prediction that is spectacularly confirmed. 2. ID lacks a probability distribution and cannot make a prediction. It's still completely lopsided in favor of UE. UE predicts the ONH out of trillions of possibilities. To defend ID, you need something that's equally lopsided in the other direction, as I explained in #640. Where is your massive counterweight? keith s
@Alicia #661
Just to point out that I was not objecting to an off-topic question. I was objecting specifically to this;
Oh, and by the way, keiths, are you A) a homosexual, and B) do you believe adults have the right to have sex with children?
as an offensive (and intended to be so) comment.
I understand that, but Pachyaena's simple off-topic questions, which he kept asking and insisting be answered, turned into an intentionally insulting, emotional, off-topic rant about the dishonesty of not turning this into a religious discussion about the Bible. And he's now done it again, calling me a "two-faced coward (i.e. a typical IDer)" and claiming some of my comments are "nothing but dishonest, evasive, insulting, falsely accusatory bile" when I have honestly and directly interacted with every aspect of Keith's argument, only to have Keith pretend it never happened. Have I insulted Keith's tactics and questioned his character? Absolutely. Because he has given me every reason to by never engaging the issues honestly no matter how charitable and patient I was with him (in spite of the various times people told me I shouldn't be so charitable and patient with him). I drew attention to his tactics in the hope that it would shame him into some honest interaction with counter-arguments, but to no avail. And have I falsely accused him of things? Well, I may have mistakenly interpreted his feelings about moderation in a way that appeared highly hypocritical, but when he gave me the slightest reason to question the validity of that accusation I willingly retracted it, whereas he continues to misrepresent my arguments over and over again, even after being corrected. But apart from that instance, Keith has given me no reason at all to retract any of the other comments I've made about his debating tactics, which are transparently dishonest. In any case, it's quite clear that Pachyaena wants to hijack the thread and carry it down a rabbit hole that has absolutely no relevance to any aspect of the topic at hand, and wants to do it while hurling insults of insincerity and dishonesty for not making this thread an argument about the Bible. What do you think I should do about that? HeKS
keiths:
Phin: And, as a reminder to keiths, your vacuous claims about “unguided evolution” have been dismantled. You merely assume the “unguided” part and keep ignoring the fact that it is only branching descent with vertical inheritance, whether guided or unguided, that will produce an ONH. Please try really hard to wrap your brain around this: Whether or not branching descent with vertical inheritance is guided or unguided, an ONH will be produced.
KS: That’s incorrect, as I explained in my OP: What about our third subset of IDers — those who accept the truth of common descent but believe that intelligent guidance is necessary to explain macroevolution? The evidence is a problem for them, too, despite the fact that they accept common descent. The following asymmetry explains why: the discovery of an objective nested hierarchy implies common descent, but the converse is not true; common descent does not imply that we will be able to discover an objective nested hierarchy. There are many choices available to a Designer who guides evolution. Only a tiny fraction of them lead to a inferable, objective nested hierarchy. The Designer would have to restrict himself to gradual changes and predominantly vertical inheritance of features in order to leave behind evidence of the kind we see.
Your short-term memory loss is on display here. The context of what you've quoted was your, "...even if it were somehow illegitimate to use the PoI..." But now you've simply fallen back on assertions that require the PoI. You are arguing in circles. Truly, you have a dizzying intellect. In any case, thanks again for almost coming close to possibly admitting that it might be somehow illegitimate to use the PoI. For you, that's quite a bit of progress. I'll also remind you again how your PoI argument totally undermines itself, though I don't doubt that you'd just as soon brush off such inconveniences with "even if it were somehow illegitimate" language.
Keiths’ argument rests on a number of shaky foundations. One of these shaky foundations is that the designer’s choices should be treated like a trillion-sided die. If this foundation fails, then keiths’ argument fails. If this foundation is not supported, then keiths’ argument is not supported. This is an assertion and an assumption that has not been adequately supported. It is not the responsibility of critics to demonstrate that the designer doesn’t act like a trillion-sided die. Rather, it is keiths’ responsibility to demonstrate that the designer must act like a trillion sided die. For if the designer does not act like a trillion sided die, then keiths has no argument. Or, if it is likely that the designer does not act like a trillion sided die, then it is likely that keiths does not have an argument. keiths argues: The designer could have chosen any of a number of ways to instantiate life, so it is unlikely that the designer would have chosen an ONH. I argue: The designer could make choices according to any of a number of methods, so it is unlikely that the designer would choose as if the designer were a trillion-sided die. Please demonstrate why anything that supports keiths’ argument doesn’t also support my argument. Or that anything that undermines my argument doesn’t also undermine keiths’ argument. Absent such demonstrations, my argument stands So, at best, it appears that it is highly unlikely that keiths’ argument is valid, since it rests on an assumption that is highly unlikely to be true.
Phinehas
keith needs to stop lying and bluffing. Joe
Hmm.. I doubt this thread is ever going to end. Either HeKS or Kieth has to stop replying. Me_Think
HeKS writes (to Keith S)
When Vishnu asked you those inappropriate questions you and Alicia were indignant that moderators hadn’t stepped in. As it happened, I hadn’t seen the comment by that time but when I did see it I agreed that it was inappropriate and made it clear no such further comments would be tolerated, as did Barry.
Just to point out that I was not objecting to an off-topic question. I was objecting specifically to this;
Oh, and by the way, keiths, are you A) a homosexual, and B) do you believe adults have the right to have sex with children?
as an offensive (and intended to be so) comment. Whilst I agree that Pachyaena's questions about other poster's religious beliefs might be called off-topic, they could hardly be described as offensive. If you think an "off-topic" rule should be more strictly enforced at UD, that is your affair, especially if it were done in a consistent manner. It would certainly reduce wear on my scroll wheel. Alicia Renard
Pachy is a full blown projectionist. Joe
Pachyaena: Do you believe in the biblical god?
No
Pachyaena: Do you believe that the biblical god created this universe?
No
Pachyaena: Do you believe in the special creation of humans by the biblical god?
No
Pachyaena: Do you believe ‘the fall’ is the reason that “Things do break down.”?
No way
Pachyaena: Is there anything in/of the universe that is not designed-created or that is not dependent on or a product/result of (including indirectly) design-creation?
No way // HeKS, delete this post also if you decide to delete #658. No problem whatsoever!! // Box
HeKS, you're a two-faced coward (i.e. a typical IDer). You and/or your fellow IDers have spewed lots of things in this thread (and others) that have nothing to do with 'the topic'. For example, let's see you try to explain how KF's two-faced, malicious, accusatory, strawmanish, incendiary, ad hominem laced, drumbeat repetitive, slanderous rant at 639 has anything to do with 'the topic', and then you can try to explain the same for Joe's, Andre's, Box's, and other IDers' comments, including some of yours, that are nothing but dishonest, evasive, insulting, falsely accusatory bile. Do you believe in the biblical god? Do you believe that the biblical god created this universe? Do you believe in the special creation of humans by the biblical god? Do you believe ‘the fall’ is the reason that “Things do break down.”? Is there anything in/of the universe that is not designed-created or that is not dependent on or a product/result of (including indirectly) design-creation? Pachyaena
@645 Box
It should be obvious by now that [...] is either a troll or has mental issues.
Well, not necessarily... couldn't this be the case of someone pretending to be a troll just to provoke heated senseless arguments, thus increasing the traffic of superficial onlookers/lurkers and/or potential commenters, who otherwise would be watching a soap opera on TV or reading a gossiping mag online? Normally we humans have no idea what to do with our own limited time, hence we look everywhere for any kind of entertainment. In times of the Roman empire they had their place (now a famous attraction for tourism), where people could watch gladiators fighting and lions devouring other people. To make the shows more entertaining, the audience had the opportunity to interact -by yelling and pointing their thumbs up or down- and manifest their opinions about the fate of the people who were in the center of the arena. Doesn't it smell a little like what's going on here? Except that here in the blog the 'audience' can also jump into the arena and get involved in the fight. Another difference is that at any time, everyone in this giant circus can quietly leave or else get kicked out by those in control of the arena. Now, seriously, the majority of these senseless discussions become a waste of precious time. Perhaps I just squandered part of mine writing this commentary. Really pathetic. There's so much out there to learn from. If anyone is interested in biology as a science and wants to read about real challenges researchers have encountered recently, just go to the 'third way' thread and look at the 700+ examples of biological issues posted in there. But keep in mind, that's not superficial entertainment. If one doesn't like it, it could be quite boring. But if you like it, it's very exciting. Some of you (specially the younger ones) might even decide to change your career in order to study biology and eventually help to make more discoveries that could benefit us all. Think about it. Here's a link to the 'third way' thread: https://uncommondesc.wpengine.com/evolution/a-third-way-of-evolution/#comment-534251 Enjoy it! :) Dionisio
Box His argument is mind boggling dumb! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOw7b9RufuA Andre
Keith: Here’s why: The ONH is massive evidence in favor of my claim that unguided evolution is responsible for the diversity of terrestrial life — including its complexities. If unguided evolution explains those complexities so well, then on what basis can you assert that it cannot explain the complexities of the cell itself?
Here Keith reveals the underlying 'logic' of his argument. Here it comes:
1. ONH proves that UE can produce the diversity of terrestrial life and its complexities 2. UE can produce complexities. 2. Complexities are complexities. 3. The parts of the cell (DNA code, proteins, epigenetics, homeostasis and so forth) are complexities. conclusion: UE can produce the complexities of the cell.
This nonsense is the underlying reason for all the ONH hysteria by Keith. Box
keith s, projectionist:
You’re not fooling anyone.
keith is fooling himself and maybe even a few other very ignorant people.
Can’t refute Keith’s argument?
My 12 year old has refuted your trope, keith. Joe
KS, Just for record, in interests of the astute onlooker. (And given two years standing of the unmet challenge to cogently address on observed evidence of causal powers of blind chance and necessity, the tree of life from root on up through main body plans branches etc.) In Darwin's little pond or a comet core or whatever scenario, OOL has to reckon with physics and chemistry, not hypothetical branching tree patterns and consequences, especially where there is evidence already adduced and never answered that the single root branching tree model is sustained by a lot of ad hoc insertions that look a lot like Lewontinian a priori materialism driven question-begging. It still has to account on such chem and phys -- especially thermodynamics -- for FSCO/I rich gated encapsulated metabolising automata, with huge interlocking reaction processes, requiring hundreds of proteins to function, and a genetic code based on code and coding principles. With the very ability to carry out a von Neumann kinematic, code and algorithm using self replicator as part of what needs to be explained. In short, massive FSCO/I. where it remains a simple fact of observation that on trillions of cases actually observed only intelligently directed configuration, aka design, has been seen to be an adequate cause of FSCO/I, which is a commonplace phenomenon that Orgel and Wicken and others have noticed is also massively present in life from the cell on up. (The Internet is exhibit no 1, add in gears, screws, nuts, bolts, etc etc. E.g., I am told that just for WW I, the British empire manufactured 7 TRILLION rounds of 0.303 ammunition. Add in software and the PC you view this on. Don't forget the Abu 6500 C3 fishing reel, which by now I trust you and others have taken time to visit a tackle shop to actually handle a simple illustrative case on FSCO/I and the Wicken wiring diagram and how it confines configs to narrow zones in the field of possibilities, if function is to be maintained or achieved.) I note, the exchange between Orgel and Shapiro, to mutual ruin of genes and metabolism first approaches, also bearing in mind the problems with synthesis and stability of RNA in realistic environments, where even just homochirality of proteins etc is a significant challenge:
[[Shapiro:] RNA's building blocks, nucleotides contain a sugar, a phosphate and one of four nitrogen-containing bases as sub-subunits. Thus, each RNA nucleotide contains 9 or 10 carbon atoms, numerous nitrogen and oxygen atoms and the phosphate group, all connected in a precise three-dimensional pattern . . . . [[S]ome writers have presumed that all of life's building could be formed with ease in Miller-type experiments and were present in meteorites and other extraterrestrial bodies. This is not the case. A careful examination of the results of the analysis of several meteorites led the scientists who conducted the work to a different conclusion: inanimate nature has a bias toward the formation of molecules made of fewer rather than greater numbers of carbon atoms, and thus shows no partiality in favor of creating the building blocks of our kind of life . . . . To rescue the RNA-first concept from this otherwise lethal defect, its advocates have created a discipline called prebiotic synthesis. They have attempted to show that RNA and its components can be prepared in their laboratories in a sequence of carefully controlled reactions, normally carried out in water at temperatures observed on Earth . . . . Unfortunately, neither chemists nor laboratories were present on the early Earth to produce RNA . . . [[Orgel:] If complex cycles analogous to metabolic cycles could have operated on the primitive Earth, before the appearance of enzymes or other informational polymers, many of the obstacles to the construction of a plausible scenario for the origin of life would disappear . . . . It must be recognized that assessment of the feasibility of any particular proposed prebiotic cycle must depend on arguments about chemical plausibility, rather than on a decision about logical possibility . . . few would believe that any assembly of minerals on the primitive Earth is likely to have promoted these syntheses in significant yield . . . . Why should one believe that an ensemble of minerals that are capable of catalyzing each of the many steps of [[for instance] the reverse citric acid cycle was present anywhere on the primitive Earth [[8], or that the cycle mysteriously organized itself topographically on a metal sulfide surface [[6]? . . . Theories of the origin of life based on metabolic cycles cannot be justified by the inadequacy of competing theories: they must stand on their own . . . . The prebiotic syntheses that have been investigated experimentally almost always lead to the formation of complex mixtures. Proposed polymer replication schemes are unlikely to succeed except with reasonably pure input monomers. No solution of the origin-of-life problem will be possible until the gap between the two kinds of chemistry is closed. Simplification of product mixtures through the self-organization of organic reaction sequences, whether cyclic or not, would help enormously, as would the discovery of very simple replicating polymers. However, solutions offered by supporters of geneticist or metabolist scenarios that are dependent on “if pigs could fly” hypothetical chemistry are unlikely to help.
Just for record, to underscore the ducking of the need for a substantial answer that meets the vera causa observed causal adequacy test. KF EDIT: typo of repeating design fixed. kairosfocus
I see, so your argument doesn't cover or assume the naturalistic origin of the first living organism from which all the other organisms supposedly branched out in an ONH, but the subsequent ONH is supposed to extend backwards to cover the origin of the first living organism and argue for it's naturalistic origin. And the ONH takes logical priority over everything. Keith, you're out to lunch. Your argument doesn't make sense. The ONH is a second order issue, if not a third order issue. It does not have logical priority. And as for the attempts you make to support your claims in #640, which mainly consist of just repeating your original assertions again ... I have already directly addressed them multiple times in this thread and you have completely ignored me every time. HeKS
Keith S Some really good advice for you, Never be attached to any outcome, be open to it. Andre
I'm not angry, Keith. But I am a little annoyed of dealing with someone who absolutely refuses to interact honestly with counter-arguments. HeKS
Keith,
I would prefer that you not delete Vishnu’s comments. Let them stand as a testament to his character.
Yes, Keith, you preferred that I not delete already existing comments, which were posted prior to any moderation warning (obviously). However, your stated reason for wanting me to leave them was as a testament to Vishnu's character, not because you objected to so-called "censorship" (actually just moderation) in principle. And yet, you seemed to commiserate with Alicia's perfectly legitimate view that a moderator should do something about Vishnu's comments and you wanted to see if anyone "on the ID side would speak up". One wonders what you wanted us to do if "speaking up" alone did not effect a change in behavior. What if Vishnu had decided to just go on doing the same thing? Evidently your view then must be that we should have just allowed it to go on, with post after post of insulting, off-topic rants, and that any moderation action taken to stop the hijacking of the thread would be "censorship", making one wonder what the point of moderators would be at all. If you say that's you view, then fine. In that case I would be mistaken in saying that you're hypocritical in this respect, as that would not be hypocritical but merely impractical and not conducive to serious discussion.
Your false accusation exemplifies the combination of emotionality and sloppiness that pervades your thinking, HeKS.
Heh. This from the guy who can't even grasp the logic (or illogic) of his own argument. You're at a complete loss to answer any of my arguments so you try to claim that I'm emotional and sloppy in my thinking. Well, congrats on being the first to accuse me of that, since people usually complain that I'm just the opposite and joke about me being a robot. I guess a bit of variety is nice. In any case, I'm afraid you're projecting in this regard, Keith. Just because I repeatedly point out your dishonest, bad-faith tactics and inability to grasp and follow arguments doesn't mean I'm being emotional. You've just given me nothing else to talk about because you won't defend your argument or even acknowledge that it has been attacked. I'm trying to figure out what will get you to show an ounce of intellectual honesty, but apparently it's impossible.
You fell in love with your “hypocrisy” story, you wanted it to be true, you ignored the evidence, and you ended up making a fool of yourself
Nope. As usual, you're just fabricating a narrative to make yourself feel better. I don't care if you are or are not a hypocrite. What is it to me if you do or do not have one more intellectually dishonorable quality to add to your repertoire? I just apparently made the mistake of thinking you had some amount of common sense and would realize that moderators "speaking up" against bad behavior, as you seemed to want them to do, is useless unless they are prepared to take action if they are ignored. It seems that no matter how little intellectual credit I give you, it somehow always ends up being too much. In any case, if you say you would have been against doing anything to stop Vishnu from making repeated off-topic insulting comments, fine. I will retract the claim that you were being hypocritical with respect to moderation. Take note, Keith. That's what intellectually honest people do when given reason to think they may have been mistaken about something. They retract the claim. They don't just bury their heads in the sand and pretend nothing happened. Of course, none of this actually has anything to do with your argument. I can acknowledge the possibility that I may have misinterpreted your feelings about moderation that made me think you were being hypocritical about it, but your argument lies in tatters while you blithely carry on in complete denial. Instead of being honest and acknowledging your repeated misrepresentation of yet another of my arguments you focused exclusively on this moderation issue and then cooked up a story in your head about how I really wanted you to be a hypocrite and how my thinking is all sloppy and emotional. I suppose you're free to tell yourself this stuff if it makes you feel better about how you've handled yourself in this discussion. Personally, I think it would be far less shameful if you just honestly engaged your opponents and came to realize that you need to work on a better argument, but as I've already said, you seem to be far too emotionally attached to the argument for you to ever do that, and so I guess you'll continue to peddle it around and pretend nobody has ever been able to refute it. HeKS
Keith: Can’t refute Keith’s argument? Just ban him. That’ll solve the problem.
As expected. Keith, your argument has been refuted at each step. We can however not 'refute' your irrational stubborn denial of that fact. Box
Keith S What argument? It would more be a ban for stupidity nothing else! And I'll support it gladly! I can not believe how anyone can be so obtuse! It boggles the mind that a person refuted by perhaps 12 or more opponents on different points of his argument can still come here and proudly proclaim he is yet to be refuted. Unbelievable! Andre
Box:
Without Keith, the level of discourse at UD will be raised.
Attaboy, Box. Can't refute Keith's argument? Just ban him. That'll solve the problem. keith s
It should be obvious by now that Keith is either a troll or has mental issues. Continuing to argue with him has little to do with exposing Darwinism. Without Keith, the level of discourse at UD will be raised. Box
Keith S
To conclude that the cell is designed without considering the ONH evidence is therefore a fatal mistake. You need to consider the ONH evidence before you attempt to make the design inference
O dear....... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yImkcG7IQeg Andre
StephenB:
No, it isn’t. OHN is evidence for common descent. Make your case for unguided evolution on the basis of OHN. Show your work.
It's "ONH", Stephen, not "OHN". Do you know what it stands for? You're making the same mistake as Phinehas. See my reply to him. keith s
KeithS
The ONH is massive evidence in favor of my claim that unguided evolution is responsible for the diversity of terrestrial life — including its complexities.
No, it isn't. OHN is evidence for common descent. Make your case for unguided evolution on the basis of OHN. Show your work.
If unguided evolution explains those complexities so well, then on what basis can you assert that it cannot explain the complexities of the cell itself?
Unguided evolution explains almost nothing. At this late date, you really ought to step up and say something of substance. StephenB
KeithS to HeKS:
Do you have a counterargument, or not?
You don't argue. You misrepresent. Ironically, even your misrepresentations are copy-cat accusations refuted ages ago. Your "rain fairy" argument is not original at all. It is really nothing more than a God-of the gaps argument in a cheap tuxedo. StephenB
HeKS, You're winding yourself up into a tight little ball of irrational anger. Read your comment tomorrow after you've calmed down a bit and you'll see what I mean. I did find one actual argument in there (besides the false accusation of hypocrisy). You wrote:
You want to take a huge cheating leap to give your argument credibility by asking ID proponents to pretend that they don’t already have positive reasons for inferring design, including in cases that are completely unrelated to the claimed ONH organization of life... I limited the design inferences to cases that were completely unrelated to and unaffected by the ONH issue at all and which did not require any consideration of the ONH “evidence”.
First of all, you didn't limit yourself to unrelated cases, as this quote makes clear:
There’s also a difference between assuming something about a designer and inferring it on the basis of the thing that is believed to be designed.
The circularity is obvious. Second, even the example you cited as being independent of the ONH evidence -- the cell -- really isn't independent at all. Here's why: The ONH is massive evidence in favor of my claim that unguided evolution is responsible for the diversity of terrestrial life -- including its complexities. If unguided evolution explains those complexities so well, then on what basis can you assert that it cannot explain the complexities of the cell itself? To conclude that the cell is designed without considering the ONH evidence is therefore a fatal mistake. You need to consider the ONH evidence before you attempt to make the design inference, even for the cell, and at that point you can't infer the characteristics of the designer from the characteristics of the cell without falling into the circularity trap. Third, you've made your argument depend on showing that the cell is designed. Good luck with that! Meanwhile, my argument does not depend on a naturalistic origin of life, as I've explained several times. It stands on its own. Fourth, even if your argument didn't have the flaws I've already listed, it would still fail. Why? Because the evidence looks exactly like it would if unguided evolution had produced the diversity of terrestrial life. UE fits the evidence with a precision of one in trillions. To tip the scale back in the direction of ID, you need an equally massive counterweight. Instead you're just flinging pebbles at the scale and most of them are bouncing off anyway. It isn't enough to argue that well, the designer might occasionally use an ONH motif, for all we know. You need massive evidence that the designer would favor the ONH practically all the time over the trillions of alternative patterns. Where is your massive counterweight? keith s
HeKS, You are seeing how you are dealing not with genuine discussion and dialogue but message dominance agit prop tactics, with a particular focus on attainting those who dare object using rather familiar radical tactics I saw when I dealt with Marxist agitators as a student way back when. And of course as all angels are on their side and nothing but devils, ignoramuses, the stupid, the insane or the like on ours, there is no need ever to concede a point as well founded; which is what is now exasperating you. Where also, of course, pointing out that there are limits of civility and reasonable fairness in serious discussion, will be construed as "censorship" or the like. (This, I suspect traces in part to the drastic deterioration of law on defamation in the USA in recent decades, where gradually the twisting of liberty into irresponsible and disrespectfully destructive licence has swallowed up the principle that one may only swing one's arm freely where an innocent nose is not present.) I have reached the conclusion that beyond a certain point, the only reasonable thing to do is to speak for record and let the record stand, for those who are willing to seek and attend to the issues on merits of fact, fairness and reason. In the end, though it be seemingly weak in the immediate context in the face of unreasonable and irresponsibly destructive agit-prop tactics that feed a march of folly, that is what will ultimately count. But also, if we do not learn the lessons from the many marches of folly across history, we will be doomed to repeat some very bad chapters. The bottomline is clear, state it and let us move on to something sensible. For sure, only the sort of systemic collapse that happened at the turn of the 90's will have enough impact to wake up those in dogmatic indoctrination induced slumbers, under the influence of the tainted atmosphere and shadow-shows of today's versions of Plato's Cave of en-darkenment through false and misleading light, in the teeth of truth. And in that context, Jesus' observation in the Sermon on the Mount has a biting, Galilean peasant wisdom to it: the eyes are the lamp of the body, so if your eyes are good your body will be full of light. If your eyes are bad, your body will be full of darkness. If then the light in you is darkness, how great is that darkness. A final word to the wise is sufficient . . . DON'T FEED DA TROLLZ. KF kairosfocus
Well, this is an auspicious start. HeKS:
I guess it’s not surprising to find that you’re a hypocrite. When Vishnu asked you those inappropriate questions you and Alicia were indignant that moderators hadn’t stepped in.
How am I a hypocrite? I was against censorship then, and I'm against censorship now. Then:
I would prefer that you not delete Vishnu’s comments. Let them stand as a testament to his character.
Now:
Ah, that’s better. Now that we’ve had a threat of censorship, this feels like a proper UD thread.
Not only am I against censorship, I'm also well-known at TSZ for opposing even the relatively moderate practice of moving rule-breaking comments to the "Guano" thread. Your false accusation exemplifies the combination of emotionality and sloppiness that pervades your thinking, HeKS. You fell in love with your "hypocrisy" story, you wanted it to be true, you ignored the evidence, and you ended up making a fool of yourself -- all before you even got to your actual counterargument. Keep up the good work. :-) keith s
There is only one conclusion to be had about Keith S's failure in basic logic..... Keith S is a chatterbot like Eugene Goostman. Andre
Keith, You don't seem to understand the basic mechanics of rational debate. In order for me to offer a counter-argument, there must first be a legitimate argument. I don't need to offer a counter-argument to an assertion that you've turned into a mantra, nor do I need to offer a counter-argument to your misrepresentations of my own arguments. When you came to the table originally, you came with an argument. It wasn't a good argument, but it was an argument. Since then, speaking just for myself, I've interacted honestly with each part of your argument and offered legitimate counter-arguments showing that your reasoning and assertions are deeply flawed. You have not responded to them. Any of them. I've provided detailed rebuttals to every aspect of your argument, but you've offered no counter-arguments to any of my rebuttals. You've simply ignored them, repeated the original assertions from your argument that I've already rebutted, and then insisted that I need to offer counter-arguments to your recycled assertions and misrepresentations or else admit that I'm unable to ... except, of course, for the fact that I have already offered such counter-argument repeatedly and you've either ignored or misrepresented them. It's stupid Keith. It's just plain dumb. I'm not under any rational obligation to repeat my counter-arguments over and over again just to have you ignore them, nor am I obliged to continually address your silly misrepresentations. Obviously, using these kinds of tactics is the best you can do. You have no genuine responses to offer so you ignore, misrepresent and then regurgitate the same discredited claims. Round and round you go, where you'll stop ... well, actually, we both know you'll never stop. So, when it comes to your silly claims in 628 we start with this:
Ah, that’s better. Now that we’ve had a threat of censorship, this feels like a proper UD thread.
I guess it's not surprising to find that you're a hypocrite. When Vishnu asked you those inappropriate questions you and Alicia were indignant that moderators hadn't stepped in. As it happened, I hadn't seen the comment by that time but when I did see it I agreed that it was inappropriate and made it clear no such further comments would be tolerated, as did Barry. You had no issue with that. However, when it came to Pachyaens, I told him that his comments were veering far off-topic. When he continued I politely asked him not to hijack the thread. When he came back with a long-winded off-topic emotional rant, I didn't censor or remove the comments but made it clear that future off-topic comments from anyone on either side that continued the trail down Pachyaens thread-jacking rabbit hole would be removed for the purpose of keeping the thread on topic, and suddenly you have a problem with this and claim its censorship. Making it clear that on-going, accusatory, offensive thread-jacking will not be tolerated is not censorship. It's legitimate moderation. Next we have this:
The very point under dispute is whether we can make the design inference after cosidering the ONH evidence. The end point of the discussion is that we either allow or disallow that inference.
If you think your ONH argument challenges the basic logic and validity of all design inferences, you're out to lunch. Again, you don't even understand how your own argument interacts with the logic of ID's design inferences. I've explained it to you quite clearly, but you don't seem to get it. You want to take a huge cheating leap to give your argument credibility by asking ID proponents to pretend that they don't already have positive reasons for inferring design, including in cases that are completely unrelated to the claimed ONH organization of life.
Yet you are beginning with a design inference that ignores the ONH evidence
You are in a state of deep confusion, Keith. First of all, the ONH "evidence" does not even have logical priority, so one does not even need to abandon provisional design inferences related to innovations that arose after the origin of life in order to fairly interact with your argument. However, because I knew this would be too subtle for you to understand (even though it's not actually complicated), I limited the design inferences to cases that were completely unrelated to and unaffected by the ONH issue at all and which did not require any consideration of the ONH "evidence".
using this bogus inference to justify additional assumptions about the designer
Your inability to grasp the logical priority of the competing claims or what your argument does and does not challenge does not magically make the inferences (not assumptions) about the designer invalid. The fact that you can't follow an argument, including your own, is not my problem.
and then using the additional assumptions to argue for an ONH-producing designer so that we can infer design instead of unguided evolution!
And somehow you still manage to mess up the conclusion of this particular argument, even though I explicitly laid out to you what the conclusion was and what it wasn't. Can you read, Keith? Do you read? Because your responses to me routinely suggest that you don't.
How can you not see the circularity of inferring design first in order to infer design later?
How can you repeatedly misrepresent an argument and utterly mangle it's conclusion after having it clearly and explicitly explained to you? What is wrong with you, Keith? Are you just that dishonest? Or do you maybe have some form of short-term memory loss? If so, it would be helpful to know. It would certainly explain a lot.
What’s sad is that even if the circularity were not a problem
There is no circularity. Logical argument evidently just isn't your thing. Nor, apparently, is English.
your argument would still fail. Unguided evolution predicts the ONH over trillions of other possibilities.
And we're back to a simple repetition of an original assertion that I've directly dismantled multiple times but that you have completely ignored each and every time, only to regurgitate it again.
You haven’t come close to demonstrating that design makes an equivalent prediction. You’ve merely argued (poorly) that an ONH isn’t as improbable as I claim.
No, Keith. I've dismantled your argument at each step, showing the error at one layer, then pulling it back and showing the underlying error at the next layer, and so on, demonstrating that your entire argument is misguided and wrong-headed. As expected, you've ignored everything you possibly could and then lamely come back with a repeated misrepresentation, demanding a counter-argument to your error. Excrement thrown against a wall does not require a counter-argument, Keith. All it requires is a garbage bag, a hose and some air freshener. Who can you possibly think you're fooling with this bag of cheap tricks? Are you grandstanding for your buddies back at The Skeptical Zone? They can't possibly all be foolish enough to think that your foot-stomping, hand-waving and childish Black-Knight-style taunts constitute meaningful arguments. You've lost the debate a dozen times over at this point. You are not arguing in good faith or with intellectual honesty. You've gone from being a Black Knight to a simple troll. In the absence of any further legitimate argumentation from your side, I don't see any more reason to feed you. HeKS
HeKS, Your #634 is nothing but more excuses. Do you have a counterargument, or not? keith s
Keith, You are confusing the role you want your argument to play with the one it actually plays. Your 628 makes obviously ridiculous claims and misrepresents the facts and the argument yet again. It is utter foolishness. I don't need to make any excuses for not responding to it because I already responded to it before you even wrote it. I laid everything out nice and clear so that any honest and rational person could understand it. You, evidently, did not understand it, or else you chose yet again to misrepresent it. I probably shouldn't be surprised. As the saying goes, "You can't make anything idiot proof because idiots are so ingenious." I told you in 607 that I would explain to you very clearly why the argument I was making wasn't circular but that it would "be the last time I humor your willful ignorance and uncharitable interpretations". I meant it. If you still think the argument is circular then you are utterly hopeless and you should stop this whole debating thing right now, because you clearly aren't up to the task. If I were to stay here trying to teach you how to make and understand basic rational arguments I would be here forever. From what I've seen, the skillset may well simply be beyond your capabilities. At this point I've directly addressed pretty much every aspect of your argument, in detail, according to the most charitable interpretation of it and granting it every advantage. At every point your argument has fallen apart. Over all this time you have not honestly interacted with or substantively responded to any argument I've made. None. Not one. In some cases you've misrepresented individual statements I've made and responded to your own fabrications, but in the vast majority of cases you've simply buried your head in the sand and pretended I didn't say anything. All of your subsequent grandstanding has simply shown you to be a desperate ideologue who is intellectually bankrupt and far too much of a coward to deal honestly with your opponents. You make the Black Knight look like a force to be reckoned with. HeKS
HeKS, I've shown (in #628) that your argument is circular, and I've shown that it would fail even if it weren't circular. You don't have a counterargument, so you are making excuses for not presenting one:
Your response is so obviously absurd and inaccurate that it requires no further response from me beyond what I’ve given.
You're not fooling anyone. Come up with a counterargument or admit that you can't. keith s
Keith, You might as well just admit that you're not equipped for reasonable debate. Your response is so obviously absurd and inaccurate that it requires no further response from me beyond what I've given. Clearly you can't follow logical arguments. They confuse you. That's fine. Just stop pretending that it's everyone else who is confused. HeKS
keith s, obviously you are incapable of learning anything so perhaps you should focus on that before jumping on other people just because they don't buy onto your obvious bullscorch. Unguided evolution doesn't predict an ONH- get that through your dense skull. Unguided evolution cannot explain the diversity of life on Earth because unguided evolution can't make it past populations of prokaryotes and that is given populations of prokaryotes to start with. It's too bad we can't have this debate in front of your employer, friend and family so they could all see how desperately foolish you are. Joe
Box #616:
Keith’s falls into the rain fairy circular reasoning: 1. Unguided evolution causes only ONH 2. A designer causes ONH but also a trillion of other stuff. conclusion: UE is a trillion times better an explanation for ONH. - - 1. Rain fairy causes only the weather 2. Zeus causes the weather but also a trillion of other stuff. conclusion: the rain fairy is a trillion times better an explanation for the weather.
Box, This is just your mobile phone/digital camera mistake all over again. That was a month ago. Haven't you learned anything in the meantime? keith s
Phinehas #622:
And, as a reminder to keiths, your vacuous claims about “unguided evolution” have been dismantled. You merely assume the “unguided” part and keep ignoring the fact that it is only branching descent with vertical inheritance, whether guided or unguided, that will produce an ONH. Please try really hard to wrap your brain around this: Whether or not branching descent with vertical inheritance is guided or unguided, an ONH will be produced.
That's incorrect, as I explained in my OP:
What about our third subset of IDers — those who accept the truth of common descent but believe that intelligent guidance is necessary to explain macroevolution? The evidence is a problem for them, too, despite the fact that they accept common descent. The following asymmetry explains why: the discovery of an objective nested hierarchy implies common descent, but the converse is not true; common descent does not imply that we will be able to discover an objective nested hierarchy. There are many choices available to a Designer who guides evolution. Only a tiny fraction of them lead to a inferable, objective nested hierarchy. The Designer would have to restrict himself to gradual changes and predominantly vertical inheritance of features in order to leave behind evidence of the kind we see. In other words, our ‘common descent IDers’ face a dilemma like the one faced by the creationists. They can force guided evolution to match the evidence, but only by making a completely arbitrary assumption about the behavior of the Designer. They must stipulate, for no particular reason, that the Designer restricts himself to a tiny subset of the available options, and that this subset just happens to be the subset that creates a recoverable, objective, nested hierarchy of the kind that is predicted by unguided evolution. Unguided evolution doesn’t require any such arbitrary assumptions. It matches the evidence without them, and is therefore a superior explanation. And because unguided evolution predicts a nested hierarchy of the kind we actually observe in nature, out of the trillions of alternatives available to a Designer who guides evolution, it is literally trillions of times better than ID at explaining the evidence.
keith s
Ah, that's better. Now that we've had a threat of censorship, this feels like a proper UD thread. HeKS #615, The very point under dispute is whether we can make the design inference after cosidering the ONH evidence. The end point of the discussion is that we either allow or disallow that inference. Yet you are beginning with a design inference that ignores the ONH evidence, using this bogus inference to justify additional assumptions about the designer, and then using the additional assumptions to argue for an ONH-producing designer so that we can infer design instead of unguided evolution! How can you not see the circularity of inferring design first in order to infer design later? What's sad is that even if the circularity were not a problem, your argument would still fail. Unguided evolution predicts the ONH over trillions of other possibilities. You haven't come close to demonstrating that design makes an equivalent prediction. You've merely argued (poorly) that an ONH isn't as improbable as I claim. keith s
@WJM #626 Since it seems from your postscript that you hadn't seen the warning before posting, and because your comment is brief, uncontroversial and conducive to getting things back on topic rather than following Pachyaena down the rabbit hole, I'll let it stand. But that's it. Grace period is over. Any more off-topic comments by anyone related to this distraction will get deleted. HeKS
Pachyaena said:
You know that if you were to answer them honestly it would show your religious bias and agenda, and you know that your religious bias and agenda are not scientific.
We all have biases and agendas. So? Pointing out bias and agenda in people is not the same as pointing out how their logic or science is substantively flawed. [ooops! Sorry HeKS. - wjm] William J Murray
@Pachyaena #618 As usual, I see my charity was misplaced. You clearly are trying to hijack the thread. Well, now that you've gotten your little emotional rant out of the way I'm giving you fair warning that any further off-topic hijacking attempts will be deleted. I also ask anyone else who might be planning a response to Pachyaena's 618 to refrain from posting it (save it for another day). It wouldn't be fair to cut him/her off and then allow a bunch of people to respond. If something gets posted in the next 30 minutes or so on the subject, including by Pachyaena, I'll give the person the opportunity to copy and save their work before I delete it. Anything else will go in the trash when I see it. Now that this distraction has been dealt with, let's return to the actual focus of the thread. HeKS
HeKS:
You are trying to argue that ID is irrational due to a claimed extreme imbalance in probabilities generated by the claimed organization of life into an ONH, but in order to create conditions conducive to that extreme imbalance of probabilities you are insisting the ID Proponents abandon all the existing design inferences that are completely unrelated to the ONH structure. In this you are, rather ironically, arguing in a circle, as you are demanding ID proponents abandon ID for the sake of your argument to create the conditions by which your argument can conclude that ID is irrational and should be abandoned.
Brilliant summation. Bang on. Phinehas
Pachyaena:
Whenever I ask you IDers about your religious beliefs I always get evasive, snotty, accusatory, dishonest responses or no responses at all.
On this thread, you got a response that wasn't evasive, snotty, accusatory, or dishonest. You got a response that expressed a legitimate desire to keep this thread on topic. And, as HeKS rightly points out:
I don’t see anybody appealing to Biblical interpretations or religious arguments to argue for ID or to counter Keith’s argument.
In fact, some ID supporters started to drag this thread off topic earlier, and HeKS corrected them as well, so there's no basis for any claim of unfair treatment. If you want a different thread about how various people go about grounding their moral beliefs, perhaps you should ask for one. Once finished here, maybe HeKS would like to tackle that next. I'd be happy to participate in that thread, as I've participated in similar threads in the past. But here, it's just a red herring. Phinehas
keiths:
And a reminder to William, Box, Phinehas et al that even if it were somehow illegitimate to use the PoI, that fact would not rescue ID. I explained this to William:
You also seem to think that if you can prevent me from using the PoI, that ID is somehow saved from my argument. It isn’t, not by a long shot. Suppose that your crackpot idea were actually correct, and that my use of the PoI was illegitimate in this case. We’ve already agreed that we don’t know who the actual designer is, or what his/her/its characteristics are. If you wished to forbid the use of the PoI, then we couldn’t assume any probability distribution. So we have two competing hypotheses. One of them, unguided evolution, predicts the ONH out of trillions of possibilities. This prediction is confirmed in spectacular fashion.
And, as a reminder to keiths, your vacuous claims about "unguided evolution" have been dismantled. You merely assume the "unguided" part and keep ignoring the fact that it is only branching descent with vertical inheritance, whether guided or unguided, that will produce an ONH. Please try really hard to wrap your brain around this: Whether or not branching descent with vertical inheritance is guided or unguided, an ONH will be produced. The issue of guidance is orthogonal. This is why ID finds your argument trivial, and, but for the opportunity to point out how poorly some ID critics reason, ultimately boring. Still, after having pointed out that your argument, turned on itself, swallows its own tail, I note that you have come as close as you probably ever will to actually admitting this with your, "even if it were somehow illegitimate to use the PoI..." Thank you for that. Phinehas
"Right on cue" means that I have corrected the sock puppet again. So yes, sock puppet, when you continually spew falsehoods I will be "right on cue" to correct you. :razz: Still can't find your alleged evolutionary theory. Oh well... Joe
Right on cue. Pachyaena
Unlike unguided evolution ID can be scientifically tested and potentially falsified. Probably the worst thing about you evos is your willful dishonesty, although your hypocrisy, arrogance, and ignorance are just as frustrating and irritating. BTW there isn't any evolutionary theory- your dishonesty is showing again, Joe
I asked: "HeKS, are you going to answer my questions in 576?" HeKS said: "No, I’m not. It seems like you’re trying to hijack the thread and focus on something completely off-topic. I’m willing to be charitable, however, and assume that you’re not doing it intentionally. Still, the fact remains that the questions you’re asking are entirely irrelevant to this thread. I don’t see anybody appealing to Biblical interpretations or religious arguments to argue for ID or to counter Keith’s argument. Certainly I’m not. All I will say on the matter is that I’m not a YEC. Other than that, I don’t intend to have yet another thread on the current subject get derailed by completely off-topic comments." HeKS, I don't see you or your fellow IDers complaining when you or your fellow IDers bring up or question the motivations/agenda of non-IDers and I don't see you or your fellow IDers complaining when you or your fellow IDers maliciously accuse non-IDers of all kinds of horrible things including having surreptitious, nefarious motivations/agendas. IDers often even accuse non-IDers of having a religious agenda, claiming that "Darwinism", materialism, atheism, naturalism, etc., are religions (and horrible ones of course). Whenever I ask you IDers about your religious beliefs I always get evasive, snotty, accusatory, dishonest responses or no responses at all. If the motivations/agenda of non-IDers are pertinent to discussions/debates about ID, evolution, evolutionary theory, origins, science in general, etc., then so are your religious beliefs which are your motivations/agenda. Your response to my questions is typical of IDers. You know that if you were to answer them honestly it would show your religious bias and agenda, and you know that your religious bias and agenda are not scientific. If you were arguing strictly from a scientific point of view you wouldn't hesitate to answer my questions openly and honestly. Probably the worst thing about you IDers is your willful dishonesty, although your hypocrisy, arrogance, and ignorance are just as frustrating and irritating. One of the things you IDers obviously don't care about is that if you were honest you would likely get at least some respect for being so, even though your religious motivations and agenda would still not be accepted by science. I would think that you IDers would like to get some respect for doing something right. Think about this: You IDers don't even have support (or get respect) from most other religious people. Most religious people have either never heard of "ID", don't care about "ID", or don't agree with what you IDers say. Take a good look at this blog. It's touted as the premiere ID blog on the internet. There are, what, a dozen or so IDers asserting the same ol' crap day after day after day? Has "ID" made any scientific headway? (Cue Joe to crudely barge in and bark that ID has taken science and the world by storm and that there's no such thing as evolutionary theory.) (Cue kairosfocus to post yet another multi-thousand word comments off FYI:FTR about fishing reels, FSCO/I, a ton of other gibberish, and his usual dishonest, two-faced, incendiary, strawmanish, malicious accusations aimed at 'lab coat wearing Marxist evo mats and their ilk'.) (Cue bornagain77 to post more truckloads of religious spam, including music and verse.) (Cue other IDers to assert the same ol' crap day after day after day.) (And cue Barry to keep banning most people who point out the truth about ID and IDers.) Pachyaena
Anyone who thinks that unguided evolution predicts an ONH is either ignorant, dishonest or a drooling idiot. Joe
Keith's falls into the rain fairy circular reasoning: 1. Unguided evolution causes only ONH 2. A designer causes ONH but also a trillion of other stuff. conclusion: UE is a trillion times better an explanation for ONH. - - 1. Rain fairy causes only the weather 2. Zeus causes the weather but also a trillion of other stuff. conclusion: the rain fairy is a trillion times better an explanation for the weather. Q.e.d. Box
The Curious Case of Keith's Confused Accusation of Circularity At points during this discussion I've made several comments like the following:
It also fails to take into account the ability to infer that certain characteristics are present in a designer based on an analysis of the things they are believed to have designed, and that this information can then be used in weighing the general likelihood that they might have produced other kinds of designs or used other kinds of design approaches.
In turn, Keith has claimed that I've made the embarrassing mistake of making a circular argument similar to his beloved Rain Fairy Fallacy, repeatedly attempting to offer parodies like this:
It also fails to take into account the ability to infer that certain characteristics are present in the Rain Fairy based on an analysis of the weather she is believed to have produced, and that this information can then be used in weighing the general likelihood that she might have produced other kinds of weather or used other kinds of weather-generating approaches.
Is Keith correct? Of course not. But what's new? Keith has misunderstood the nature of my argument and how it relates to his argument. It also seems that he may not even understand how his own argument intersects and interacts with ID (i.e. where it enters the picture). In order to make the matter clear, I will write a sample dialogue between Keith and an ID Proponent (IDP) like myself. -------------- IDP: When I look to the details of cosmology and the fine-tuning of the initial conditions in the Big Bang and of the laws of physics, I detect what seems to me to be the activity of a being who is powerful, highly intelligent, and extremely organized. I find the same thing when I look to the situation with our own planet and the hundreds of factors that make it suitable to support the kind of life that is made possible by the fine-tuning of the laws of physics. I find the same thing when I look to the origin of life and to the cell, with its incredible degree of complexity and efficient organization and complex, functionally specified molecular machines. I find the same thing when I look to the complex innovations that have arisen in the history of life since its origin. All of these things directly suggest to me the activity of a powerful, highly-intelligent, extremely organized being. Biological systems, processes and machines like those found in the cell bear much similarity to the products of human intelligent design but they are much more sophisticated than anything we are currently able to produce. Still they bear the same kinds of hallmarks of conscious intelligent designing activity, including innumerable examples of the highly improbable, functionally-specified interdependent coordination of many well-matched parts, the use of functionally-specified information contained in a digital code, the use of transcription, translation and error-correction systems, etc., all of which constitute positive indicators of design. Further, based on the current state of our scientific knowledge, we do not seem to have any good reason to think that unguided natural forces could bring about these sorts of effects or generate significant amounts of functional information, which, as far as we can tell from the totality of observed empirical evidence, only seems to come from minds. I therefore provisionally infer to Intelligent Design as the most reasonable explanation for these phenomena and therefore also provisionally infer, necessarily, to the existence of an intelligent designer who has the requisite power, intellience and organizational abilities necessary to design and produce such systems and effects. [Along comes Keith] Keith: Hi. My name is Keith and I have a whiz-bang argument against ID that shows all you dunderheads have to be completely irrational to accept ID. IDP: Ok, great. Let's hear it. Keith: Ok, well, here's how it goes. Life falls into an objective nested hierarchy, or an "ONH", but we have absolutely no reason to think that an intelligent designer would organize life into an ONH pattern instead of one of the trillions of other patterns he could have used instead. On the other hand, something called "unguided evolution" predicts an ONH. So, you see, because of this pattern that I'm saying life is organized in, you should ignore all the reasons that you infer design as the explanation for complex features of living organisms. You should also ignore all the observational evidence that seems to suggest this thing called "unguided evolution" can't produce such complex features as well the complete lack of any evidence suggesting it can. Instead you should just assume that all those things that make you infer design can be explained by "unguided evolution" because life is organized in an ONH pattern. IDP: Hmmm. OK. I have a few questions if you don't mind. Keith: Ok, go ahead. IDP: You're saying that we should ignore all the evidence that we think positively indicates the design of complex systems in living organisms because different organisms can be organized into an ONH pattern. But how does this ONH pattern directly rebut the evidence for the design of these systems? Keith: It doesn't. It's just that we have no reason to think that an intelligent designer would prefer to organize life into an ONH pattern any more than he would prefer to do it any of the other trillions of possible ways. So because life is organized in an ONH, we should assume that no intelligence was required in any aspect of the history of life. IDP: Hmmm. I'm not seeing the logic of that claim, but let's put a pin in it for a moment and move on. Now, just to clarify, you're claiming that we have no reason to think it's likely that the putative intelligent designer of these highly complex, incredibly organized systems would have neatly organized life into an ONH pattern rather than one of a trillion other possibilities, the vastly overwhelming majority of which would have looked like a disorganized, random jumble of no discernible pattern and would likely have required the direct instantiation of most or all organismal populations in their final forms? Keith: No, no, no. I'm saying we have no reason to think that a random intelligent designer whom we know absolutely nothing about - including whether he's intelligent or can design - would choose the highly structured pattern of an ONH out of the trillions of other logical possibilities. IDP: Huh? Why would we consider this issue in the context of a random intelligent designer of no particular type, and of completely unknown attributes or characteristics? Keith: Because anything else would be the Rain Fairy fallacy, where you simply assume there's an intelligent being guiding something that doesn't need any guidance, and then give it the qualities that fit with the unguided thing. IDP: Um, Keith, I think you've gotten yourself confused. You seem to have forgotten the nature of the challenge you are trying to present to ID. We are starting with positive reasons and evidence for inferring to design and therefore to a corresponding intelligent agent with the requisite qualities and capabilities to produce the types of effects that lead us to that provisional inference. We are also starting with reasons for rejecting unguided natural causes, which we so far have no reason to believe are up to the task. You are then coming to us and proposing that we should accept the unevidenced capabilities of "unguided evolution" to do things that seem to require intelligent agency. The only reason we are being given for why we should accept these claims about the capabilities of "unguided evolution" that we don't have evidence for and reject the inferences to design that we do have evidence for is because of your claim that life is organized in an ONH. And the only reason we are being given for why that should matter is because of your claim that an intelligent designer would be astronomically unlikely to produce such a strictly ordered pattern as an ONH when he might instead have chosen any one of trillions of other options. (Your claim that "unguided evolution" predicts an ONH, even if true, would be irrelevant if your claim about the incredible improbability of the designer generating an ONH is mistaken). In light of these circumstances, the way for an ID Proponent to honestly interact with your argument is to ask whether it is really true that an ONH pattern for the organization of life would be astronomically unlikely to be generated by the kind of intelligent designer that would be needed to produce the kinds of effects and systems that caused them to infer design in the first place. In other words, they would ask: Is it really true that the kind of designer who would design A, B, C, D, E, F and G (the various things that triggered the design inference) would be astronomically unlikely to produce H (the ONH organization of life)? There is no logical requirement for the ID Proponent to interact with your argument on the assumption of a completely random designer of completely unknown attributes, who might not be smart enough, powerful enough, or possess the requisite organizational skills to bring about the effects (A - G) that triggered the design inference in the first place apart from the issue of the ONH. Keith: No, no. Rain Fairies. You can't use anything that is organized within the ONH. IDP: Well, actually, you're completely mistaken. However, since your argument relates to the ONH structure itself, it doesn't cover the origin of life, right? Keith: Correct. IDP: Ok, so then just to avoid wasting time arguing over the mistake you just made, let's limit our biological design inferences to those based on the first cell. This still leads us to precisely the same inferences to the necessary characteristics of the intelligent designer as powerful, highly intelligent and extremely organized, and so we ask: Is it really true that the kind of designer who would design and produce the first cell, with its awe-inspiring degree of complex organization, would be astronomically unlikely to produce the ONH organization of life and would be just as likely to use any one of the assumed trillions of other logically possible approaches, the overwhelmingly vast majority of which would appear completely disorganized? Keith: No, um, Rain Fairies. It's all Rain Fairies and Salt Leprechauns. IDP: How so? Keith: Because it's circular, you foolish boy. How embarrassing. IDP: How so? Keith: Because it's Rain Fairies. IDP: I'm hearing your words, but what you're saying doesn't seem to make sense. How is any of this circular? Keith: Um, well, you're not allowed to infer any qualities of the designer unless your can infer design for certain. IDP: Well, that's obviously wrong. In making a provisional inference to design, we are perfectly warranted in inferring, by necessary implication, to a designer who has the requisite capabilities to produce the designs. You are trying to argue that ID is irrational due to a claimed extreme imbalance in probabilities generated by the claimed organization of life into an ONH, but in order to create conditions conducive to that extreme imbalance of probabilities you are insisting the ID Proponents abandon all the existing design inferences that are completely unrelated to the ONH structure. In this you are, rather ironically, arguing in a circle, as you are demanding ID proponents abandon ID for the sake of your argument to create the conditions by which your arguement can conclude that ID is irrational and should be abandoned. Keith: It's Raining Fairies! Hallelujah! - It's Raining Fairies! Amen! IDP: I'm bored. I'm gonna go get a snack. -------------- Now, I could continue this dialogue to point out most of the rest of the errors in reasoning in Keith's argument, but since I discussed those in a recent comment I won't duplicate the effort. Instead let's come back to Keith's 3-step misrepresentation of my argument as circular, show where he went wrong, and what the actual argument is. Here's his misrepresentation. In order to be circular his vague references to "design" must be referring to the same thing, namely, the ONH. This has been indicated in square brackets:
1) assume design [of the ONH]; then 2) infer the designer’s characteristics from the design [of the ONH], so that 3) you can infer design [of the ONH], because the designer’s characteristics match the design [of the ONH].
Now let's take it one at a time.
1) assume design [of the ONH]
No. Design is not assumed, and certainly not for the ONH. Rather, design is inferred with respect to several things that are completely unrelated to the ONH structure and which give us positive reasons to infer design, such as the origin of the first living organism and the indicators of design outside of biology.
2) infer the designer’s characteristics from the design [of the ONH]
This one would be essentially correct were it not for the implied reference to the ONH. Instead, the designer is inferred to have the characteristics necessary to produce the things that gave us positive reasons to infer design mentioned in step 1, which have nothing to do with the ONH.
3) you can infer design [of the ONH], because the designer’s characteristics match the design [of the ONH]
No. This one is completely incorrect. Design is not being inferred for the ONH pattern or anything else here. This step is not about positively inferring design. Rather, what is being concluded is merely that the generation of the ONH is not necessarily astronomically unlikely given the type of designer implied by 1 and 2, but that a vast swath of logically possible approaches (those that would be highly inefficient, disorganized, etc.) would be highly unlikely to be used by such a designer. HeKS
KeithS
I know you like to talk about the “principles of right reason”, but judging from #610 and other past performances of yours, your reason ain’t right. I suggest you get it checked out.
Anytime you would like to discuss the logic of your rain fairy argument, or the ways in which it has been taken apart and exposed as nonsense, you just let me know. StephenB
StephenB #610, I know you like to talk about the "principles of right reason", but judging from #610 and other past performances of yours, your reason ain't right. I suggest you get it checked out. keith s
HeKS,
It’s not changing the subject Keith.
Good. Then in that case you won't mind answering my question first, since the subject is the same. You claim that your reasoning isn’t circular and that you don’t commit the Rain Fairy fallacy. If so, let’s hear your non-circular interpretation of the seven passages of yours that I quoted. If you'd prefer not to tackle all seven at once, you can start with this one:
There’s also a difference between assuming something about a designer and inferring it on the basis of the thing that is believed to be designed.
The circularity couldn't be more obvious. keith s
@Pachyaena #609 No, I'm not. It seems like you're trying to hijack the thread and focus on something completely off-topic. I'm willing to be charitable, however, and assume that you're not doing it intentionally. Still, the fact remains that the questions you're asking are entirely irrelevant to this thread. I don't see anybody appealing to Biblical interpretations or religious arguments to argue for ID or to counter Keith's argument. Certainly I'm not. All I will say on the matter is that I'm not a YEC. Other than that, I don't intend to have yet another thread on the current subject get derailed by completely off-topic comments. HeKS
KeithS
It’s just that substituting the Rain Fairy for the designer makes the bad logic obvious to everyone — even those who are otherwise blinded by their religious precommitments.
Let's take a fun ride with KeithS (We will let him do the driving) KeithS
[a] StephenB says that he designed the previous sentence. [b] Substituting the term "rain fairy" for StephenB, we get..."The rain fairy wrote that sentence." [C] Aha, the argument is circular because the term "rain fairy" can be substituted for StephenB. [d] Therefore, law and chance as an explanation for the origin of that sentence is trillions and trillions of times better than the design hypothesis.
(Everyone gasps in disbelief, but no one speaks).
Where are all those cowardly ID proponents to address my arguments. Watch me plow through another one. All men are mortal, Socrates is a man, Therefore, Socrates is mortal. All rain fairies are mortal. Are we having fun yet?
(Someone finally speaks. "You are not a rational person.")
That is a circular argument. Substitute rain fairy for "you" and you will finally grasp my brilliance. What? No rebuttal? What's with all this silence? No one can answer my arguments. Everyone is afraid to try.
------------------------------------------------------------ Wasn't that a fun ride? StephenB
HeKS, are you going to answer my questions in 576? Pachyaena
PeterJ said: "To me this was always a significant pointer as to how wrong he was, and I’m surprised that he didn’t really pick up on it himself. I mean, where are all the people that agreed with him? There weren’t any. At the end of the day if he was making as good an argument as he thought he was, and others agreed with him, they would have been backing him to the hilt. Their absence speaks for itself." Actually, "Their absence" speaks to being banned, having things to do besides arguing with IDers, or not feeling the need to make Keith's points into a popularity contest. Pachyaena
It's not changing the subject Keith. It directly relates to the argument you've misinterpreted / misunderstood / misrepresented. I suspect that you don't really understand where your argument actually intersects with ID or how it actually attempts to attack ID and this contributes to your mistaken belief that I've made a circular argument when I quite obviously haven't. Because of this I'm going to have to explain the context more carefully than I should otherwise have to so that you'll have some hope of understanding it ... even though I expect you'll just turn around and misrepresent it again. I understand how adopting the Principle of Charity would interfere with your debate style and tactics, but you really should do it if you want to be taken seriously. I've been in no rush to justify my argument because you seem to be the only one confused by it and because I've already pointed you at relevant factors that show it isn't circular, which you've just ignored. I'll start working on a nice, clear explanation for you. But this will be the last time I humor your willful ignorance and uncharitable interpretations like this. HeKS
HeKS,
Do you even understand at what point your argument intersects with / attempts to attack ID?
Yes. Meanwhile, you're in a tough spot, so you're trying to change the subject. You claim that your reasoning isn’t circular and that you don’t commit the Rain Fairy fallacy. If so, let’s hear your non-circular interpretation of the seven passages of yours that I quoted. The onlookers are watching, and Box has pinned his hopes on you. keith s
Keith, Do you even understand at what point your argument intersects with / attempts to attack ID? HeKS
HeKS #601 and #603, You claim that your reasoning isn't circular and that you don't commit the Rain Fairy fallacy. If so, let's hear your non-circular interpretation of the seven passages of yours that I quoted:
HeKS, The circularity is right there in your own words. You can’t argue that I’ve misinterpreted you, because you keep repeating it: #378:
There’s also a difference between assuming something about a designer and inferring it on the basis of the thing that is believed to be designed.
And:
As such, one can make limited but warranted plausible inferences about a designer on the basis of their designs. And, given those inferences, one can also consider whether certain approaches can be more or less plausibly attributed to an agent with the characteristics that the designer is inferred to have on the basis of their designs.
And:
It also fails to take into account the ability to infer that certain characteristics are present in a designer based on an analysis of the things they are believed to have designed, and that this information can then be used in weighing the general likelihood that they might have produced other kinds of designs or used other kinds of design approaches.
And:
…it makes perfect sense to me that the designer would use some form of branching descent to achieve the multiple goals I mentioned, since it would fit right in with the design style I perceive the designer to be using in the systems that directly lead me to make a design inference in the first place.
#383:
And, in reality, even calling this an assumption is a misnomer, because it would actually just be an inference made on the basis of the designed artifacts.
And:
If we perform the same exercise after factoring in the problem/goal in question and the characteristics we can reasonably infer from the systems that triggered our design inference in the first place…
And finally:
And perhaps I should note that there’s nothing circular about using inferences drawn from systems that trigger a design inference…
How embarrassing, HeKS. Your argument founders on the freshman logic mistake of assuming your conclusion.
keith s
Keith: Here was one of my statements:
It also fails to take into account the ability to infer that certain characteristics are present in a designer based on an analysis of the things they are believed to have designed, and that this information can then be used in weighing the general likelihood that they might have produced other kinds of designs or used other kinds of design approaches.
And here's your parody of it:
It also fails to take into account the ability to infer that certain characteristics are present in the Rain Fairy based on an analysis of the weather she is believed to have produced, and that this information can then be used in weighing the general likelihood that she might have produced other kinds of weather or used other kinds of weather-generating approaches.
Do you even see where you've changed the argument so that your parody no longer accurately represents the original meaning or context of my argument as it relates to this debate? HeKS
And a reminder to William, Box, Phinehas et al that even if it were somehow illegitimate to use the PoI, that fact would not rescue ID. I explained this to William:
You also seem to think that if you can prevent me from using the PoI, that ID is somehow saved from my argument. It isn’t, not by a long shot. Suppose that your crackpot idea were actually correct, and that my use of the PoI was illegitimate in this case. We’ve already agreed that we don’t know who the actual designer is, or what his/her/its characteristics are. If you wished to forbid the use of the PoI, then we couldn’t assume any probability distribution. So we have two competing hypotheses. One of them, unguided evolution, predicts the ONH out of trillions of possibilities. This prediction is confirmed in spectacular fashion. Meanwhile the competing hypothesis, ID, doesn’t predict anything. You’ve ruled that out by forbidding the use of the PoI. Which hypothesis should we favor, the one that makes a spectacularly successful prediction, or the one that doesn’t? You don’t have to be a statistical genius to figure this one out.
So either 1) you try to forbid me from assigning a probability distribution, in which case ID loses; or 2) you accept the use of the principle of indifference, in which case ID loses; or 3) you supply your own probability distribution, in which case ID loses unless a) you can justify your distribution, and b) your distribution shows that the designer is vastly more likely to adopt the ONH motif than one of the other possible patterns. ID is in a very tough spot. Good luck to its proponents -- they'll need it. keith s
Keith, You're a riot. StephenB is right. You made a fool of yourself and you're still doing it. You've misunderstood the argument and so you've misrepresented it each time you've tried to parody it. As I've already told you, when you offered this three step summary of my argument...
1) assume design; then 2) infer the designer’s characteristics from the design, so that 3) you can infer design, because the designer’s characteristics match the design.
...you got both step 1 and 3 wrong. That summary accurately represents your Rain Fairy argument but not the arguments that I made. Instead of reconsidering what I actually said, you barreled forward and continued to repeat your mistake, which you've now done several times. You're mocking me, claiming I've made an embarrassing mistake, but you're only making yourself look foolish by misrepresenting what the actual argument was. If you want to be taken seriously when engaging in serious debate, I suggest you familiarize yourself with The Principle of Charity.
In philosophy and rhetoric, the principle of charity requires interpreting a speaker's statements to be rational and, in the case of any argument, considering its best, strongest possible interpretation. In its narrowest sense, the goal of this methodological principle is to avoid attributing irrationality, logical fallacies or falsehoods to the others' statements, when a coherent, rational interpretation of the statements is available.
HeKS
Box, This is so simple that I can't resist trying one more time to explain it to you: 1. There's a 50% chance that the perpetrator is Bob, and a 50% chance that the perpetrator is Betty. Either the perpetrator is Bob or the perpetrator is Betty, but not both. 2. If the perpetrator is Bob, the perpetrator is not indifferent to the mode of travel. 3. If the perpetrator is Betty, the perpetrator is not indifferent to the mode of travel. 4. Since those are the only two possibilities, we can conclude that the perpetrator is not indifferent to the mode of travel -- period. 5. Therefore, equal probabilities do not mean that the perpetrator is indifferent. Your statement is therefore wrong:
if “equal probabilities” then “no preference”
keith s
StephenB, The logic is equally bad in both versions -- the designer version and the Rain Fairy version -- of each of HeKS's statements. It's just that substituting the Rain Fairy for the designer makes the bad logic obvious to everyone -- even those who are otherwise blinded by their religious precommitments. HeKS made an embarrassing mistake, and you followed him right into the trap. It's worth reposting:
Meanwhile, StephenB and William J Murray (along with HeKS) fall straight into the Rain Fairy trap. First StephenB:
HeKS “As such, one can make limited but warranted plausible inferences about a designer on the basis of their designs. And, given those inferences, one can also consider whether certain approaches can be more or less plausibly attributed to an agent with the characteristics that the designer is inferred to have on the basis of their designs” HeKS is correct. The key passage here is “on the basis of their designs,” which is derived from empirical observations. No circularity.
Oh, really? Here is HeKS’s passage in terms of the Rain Fairy:
As such, one can make limited but warranted plausible inferences about the Rain Fairy on the basis of the weather she has produced. And, given those inferences, one can also consider whether certain approaches can be more or less plausibly attributed to an agent with the characteristics that the Rain Fairy is inferred to have on the basis of the weather she has produced.
StephenB quotes HeKS again:
“It also fails to take into account the ability to infer that certain characteristics are present in a designer based on an analysis of the things they are believed to have designed, and that this information can then be used in weighing the general likelihood that they might have produced other kinds of designs or used other kinds of design approaches.” That is correct. If the designer shows signs of unusual creative ability, it follows that the designer may be capable of achieving the same result in different ways. No circularity.
And again, HeKS’s passage can be rewritten in terms of the Rain Fairy:
It also fails to take into account the ability to infer that certain characteristics are present in the Rain Fairy based on an analysis of the weather she is believed to have produced, and that this information can then be used in weighing the general likelihood that she might have produced other kinds of weather or used other kinds of weather-generating approaches.
Those passages become quite comical when the Rain Fairy is substituted for the designer, don’t they? Yet the logic is the same. Here are the remaining passages, all of which have been modified to refer to the Rain Fairy.
…it makes perfect sense to me that the Rain Fairy would use some form of convection to achieve the multiple goals I mentioned, since it would fit right in with the weather style I perceive the Rain Fairy to be using in the systems that directly lead me to make a Rain Fairy inference in the first place.
And:
If we perform the same exercise after factoring in the problem/goal in question and the characteristics we can reasonably infer from the systems that triggered our Rain Fairy inference in the first place…
The take-home lesson: If your pro-ID argument works equally well in defense of the Rain Fairy, you have a bad argument.
And those are just four of the statements. HeKS repeated the mistake seven times altogether. keith s
KeithS
StephenB, You seem to have forgotten what happened when you tried to join the debate.
I didn't forget at all. When someone is making a fool of himself, as you did in that exchange, I just get out of the way and let him do it. What you don't understand is that merely changing the noun in a premise is not enough to change a rational argument into a circular argument. By making such an attempt, you made it clear that you don't understand how logic works. No response was necessary. However, If you need any remedial instruction, I will be happy to help you. StephenB
Meanwhile PeterJ, who is apparently still learning how to operate his computer, quadruple-posts a comment and commits the inverse argumentum ad populum fallacy. keith s
StephenB, You seem to have forgotten what happened when you tried to join the debate. keith s
StephenB, "Finally, it is entertaining to watch him act as his own broadcaster and referee as he provides his self-serving play by play account of the competition." To me this was always a significant pointer as to how wrong he was, and I'm surprised that he didn't really pick up on it himself. I mean, where are all the people that agreed with him? There weren't any. At the end of the day if he was making as good an argument as he thought he was, and others agreed with him, they would have been backing him to the hilt. Their absence speaks for itself. PeterJ
StephenB, I think you've captured the dynamic beautifully. There really isn't much left to say about Keith's damp squib of an argument. I'll address his silly claim that I've made a circular argument when I get a chance, tonight or in the next couple days, but after that I have things to do that actually require (and deserve) my attention. HeKS
HeKS, You have been very patient with KeithS. Like most Darwinists, he lives by the infamous "non-concession" policy. He will say anything--and I mean anything--to create the impression that he has successfully advanced or refuted an argument. Among other things, he begins with a ridiculous proposition, asserts it as fact, and dramatizes it in bold type. That tactic is supposed to give his arbitrary claim a persuasive force that logic did not provide for it. At that point, it is a simple matter of saying it over and over again. Interestingly, he projects his own faults, by name, onto his adversary. Thus, his circular reasoning and evasive behavior is attributed to your rational arguments. At those rare times when he does appear to respond, he simply strings words together as if the mere act of placing a verb after a noun in a sentence will suffice for a rational argument. Perhaps the most chaotic element of his approach is his proclivity to wallow in and hide behind the complexities of his adversary's most subtle arguments. Simple points of fact trouble him because they are more difficult to misrepresent or run away from. With each new subtle distinction or nuance comes the opportunity obfuscate and distract. Finally, it is entertaining to watch him act as his own broadcaster and referee as he provides his self-serving play by play account of the competition. When his adversary scores a touchdown, he reports it as a fumble. When he fumbles in his own end[-zone, he does a victory dance. It's a wonder to behold. StephenB
HeKS #591,
HeKS: I think what’s ultimately causing some confusion here is the word “indifference”. In terms of the principle of indifference, it’s not really talking about a “lack of care”.
Well, "lack of care" or "lack of preference" or "being neutral" is exactly how I understand "indifference" in this context.
HeKS: The indifference is supposed to apply to the things that are being assigned probabilities.
This is not how I understand it. In my book "indifference" applies to a process that produces things that can be assigned equal probabilities. Similarly a die can be fair (indifferent) or loaded (have preferences).
HeKS: If we have no information by which to distinguish them other than arbitrary labels, then they can be considered “indifferent” (i.e. not different) with respect to their probability.
Ok, so you hold that "indifference" applies to the things that have probabilities and I hold that "indifference" applies to the process that produces things that have equal probabilities. That is important to know. Let's keep it in mind. I feel more comfortable with my interpretation and as far as I can see we don't reach different conclusions based on this difference, despite what Keith says in #525. edited: There is no difference between: 1. Assuming that a designer has choices which are “indifferent” (i.e. not different) with respect to their probability. 2. Assuming that a designer is indifferent in order to produce choices that have equal probabilities. n.b. Number 1 is HeKS and number 2 is my version. Box
@Box #583
Indifference (not have any preference) is assumed concurrent with assigning equal probabilities. In this case the agent’s indifference is assumed towards “all logically possible preferences”. In this case we are dealing with ‘meta-indifference’, IOW ‘indifference wrt preferences’ or ‘no preference wrt preferences’; this may be confusing :)
If I'm reading you correctly, what you're saying in the second part is ultimately correct. It's similar to the point I was making that the assigning of equal probabilities assumes the agent is indifferent with respect to (i.e. doesn't care about) the quality of his preferred approach to a problem or goal, and that it is plausible to think his "preference" would be basically arbitrary rather than chosen for its soundness or likelihood of success in solving the problem or achieving the goal. I think what's ultimately causing some confusion here is the word "indifference". In terms of the principle of indifference, it's not really talking about a "lack of care". The indifference is supposed to apply to the things that are being assigned probabilities. If we have no information by which to distinguish them other than arbitrary labels, then they can be considered "indifferent" (i.e. not different) with respect to their probability. The problem is, there are objective ways to distinguish logically possible approaches to achieving goals and solving problems that go beyond mere arbitrary labels. The logically possible approaches are inherently asymmetric with respect to the goal/problem. Now, if someone wanted to apply the PoI with respect to our ability to predict exactly which option an intelligent agent might choose out of some tiny subset of equally sensible approaches that we cannot clearly distinguish from each other in terms of their utility (perhaps one is more efficient in one respect, another in a different respect), or even ones that are in the same general ballpark of utility, there could be some basis for that. Of course, the reason Keith doesn't want to do that is because there's nowhere near as much rhetorical value in saying the chance that a designer would have done things this way is one-in-10, or one-in-15, or one-in-20, as saying the chance is ONE-IN-TRILLIONS!!!. In other words, Keith is more interested in being his own PR machine than he is in making measured, sensible, plausible claims. That said, this silly application of the PoI to all logically possible approaches is merely the cherry on top of the layered nonsense cake. Once we get past the PoI silliness we are faced with the matter of Keith ignoring that nobody tries to determine whether some sensible approach to a problem is likely the result of intelligent activity by counting up what other sensible approaches might have been used and then concluding that what they are looking at was probably not the result of intelligent activity because there is a low probability that an intelligent agent would have chosen to use the particular approach that was used instead of one of the other similarly sensible approaches that could have been used. This is nonsense of the highest order. Then, once we get past that problem, we're faced with Keith's mantra that there's no reason to think an intelligent designer would prefer an ONH pattern over any other of a "trillion" imagined patterns, and yet he resolutely ignores that a nested hierarchical approach to programming, with objective nested dependencies and OOP class inheritance by sub-/extended-classes, is considered a best practice, as it maximizes the efficiency of coding and prevents you from inefficiently writing new code to do the same thing a different way in the same context. [As a point of interest, I just happened to be chatting with a friend online who is a Java programmer (I work primarily with UI programming). I mentioned Keith's argument to him and Keith's claims about ONHs being merely one of trillions of possible patterns, that humans don't create them, and that there's no reason to think an intelligent person would prefer to use an ONH instead of some other possible pattern. This was his immediate and unsolicited response: "Huh? That's the whole backing of good design practices. We create that all the time."] Once that layer of nonsense is pulled back we are faced with the problem that Keith focuses exclusively on the ONH pattern itself and tries to make an argument based on the probability (or improbability) that an intelligent designer would have directly chosen that pattern rather than on the likelihood that an intelligent designer would have chosen to distribute traits and innovations through a process of branching descent, which would necessarily create a general ONH pattern as a byproduct. Programmers don't just have a fetish for objective nested hierarchical dependencies. They produce them as a byproduct of choosing a highly efficient way to code for complex functionality. Once we peel back that mistake, we're faced with Keith's silly and incorrect claim that "unguided evolution predicts an objective nested hierarchy out of the trillions of possibilities". In reality, it does not. As has already been explained to him, what actually predicts an ONH is any form of branching descent that adds new characters / functions (however they happen to get added) while retaining old ones, as such a process / approach will necessarily generate a significant ONH pattern as a byproduct. Something called "unguided evolution" does not predict an ONH pattern or anything else in particular, except perhaps the blunting and breaking of existing biological function where such renders a net fitness gain under the present circumstances. This thing called "unguided evolution" is merely what Keith is positing as the explanation for how the innovations - the new characters / functions - happen to get added to the mix. In this, he ignores the wealth of observational evidence and asks us to do the same, suggesting we simply assume it is a viable explanation for the creation of novel, complex, functionally-specified biological systems and molecular machines. Why? Because of the mere existence of the ONH (statistical though it may be) that he mistakenly thinks this thing called "unguided evolution" predicts and that he mistakenly thinks would be unlikely to be caused by the activity of any intelligent agent under any circumstances, when in reality such a pattern is regularly produced by intelligent agents under highly relevant circumstances. Once we toss away that layer we find, as many have noted, that the argument is entirely trivial, because it begins by assuming the very thing that is at the heart of the debate, which is the sufficiency of natural processes to produce the artifacts and effects that cause ID proponents to infer design in the first place. I wish this was the entire list of problems with Keith's argument and sub-arguments, or even just the entire list of problems I've personally pointed out, but it's not. This list, however, illustrates how his argument relies on a continuous series of errors, with each error being used as a foundational support for another error. Will Keith acknowledge any of this? Of course not. His fantasy land is impenetrable. HeKS
Foresight, like the design of the recurrent laryngeal nerve?
The nerve that serves other muscles along the way? Heck unguided evolution can't explain nerves. Another own goal for keith... Joe
Keith said:
As you can see, it’s not enough to try to thwart my use of the PoI.
If my intent in this particular dialogue is to show that you are using it inappropriately, then yes, thwarting your use of it is all that is necessary.
You need to come up with your own justified probability distribution that will enable ID to match UE’s spectacular predictive success.
Unlike some people, I don't hold the bizarre notion that probability distributions can be applied to intelligent agents making design instantiation decisions according to (1) unknown ultimate goals and (2) unknown practical constraints. This is why an attempt to establish a probability differential in the first place between "unguided evolution" and "a designer", as the basis of a supposedly definitive argument against ID, is nonsensical. Design detection doesn't require one know anything about any putative intelligent designer other than that which is necessarily assumed by definition. William J Murray
Pachyaena:
The thing is, ID proponents are creationists. Dishonest ones, and that’s why they argue the way they do. They will not accept your points because they have an entrenched belief in who ‘the designer’ (AKA their chosen God) is and what he can and did/does do, and why.
It only takes a belief in sound logic to reject keiths' points. That the products of ultimately random forces should have the ability to reason with sound logic? Well, believing that might take some faith. Phinehas
5for:
To design much of the weather we see still outstrips our capabilities by quite a bit. To design such would take someone highly educated, intelligent, or both.
Setting aside HeKS' prescience for a moment, yes. If, for the sake of argument, we were to assume that weather had been designed, we might be able to discern things about such a designer's capabilities, though, off the top of my head, I'd likely conclude more about power than intelligence in that particular case. And so? Phinehas
Keiths' argument rests on a number of shaky foundations. One of these shaky foundations is that the designer's choices should be treated like a trillion-sided die. If this foundation fails, then keiths' argument fails. If this foundation is not supported, then keiths' argument is not supported. This is an assertion and an assumption that has not been adequately supported. It is not the responsibility of critics to demonstrate that the designer doesn't act like a trillion-sided die. Rather, it is keiths' responsibility to demonstrate that the designer must act like a trillion sided die. For if the designer does not act like a trillion sided die, then keiths has no argument. Or, if it is likely that the designer does not act like a trillion sided die, then it is likely that keiths does not have an argument. keiths argues: The designer could have chosen any of a number of ways to instantiate life, so it is unlikely that the designer would have chosen an ONH. I argue: The designer could make choices according to any of a number of methods, so it is unlikely that the designer would choose as if the designer were a trillion-sided die. Please demonstrate why anything that supports keiths' argument doesn't also support my argument. Or that anything that undermines my argument doesn't also undermine keiths' argument. Absent such demonstrations, my argument stands. (Here, I am echoing keiths' reliance on shifting the burden of proof. If keiths will actually embrace the burden of supporting his own argument, I'll retract this, since it won't be necessary.) So, at best, it appears that it is highly unlikely that keiths' argument is valid, since it rests on an assumption that is highly unlikely to be true. Phinehas
Keith @571: This is a pristine example of Keith's faulty logic and apparent inability to understand an argument. He apparently thinks my statement: "Not knowing that it won’t be flat isn’t enough." somehow contradicts the following statement: "Where did I say that the PoI should only be applied in situations where we know that the probability distribution is flat?" Just because a flat distribution may be one of the possibilities doesn't mean you are entitled to use the PoI. That's not enough. You must have no reason to think that any of the possibilities outweigh any other. That doesn't mean you know it's a flat probability distribution, but that you have no valid reason to think it wouldn't be flat. Of course we have good reason to believe it wouldn't be flat, unless Keith is going to argue that an intelligent designer's choices would likely be the same as a random distribution, which is nonsense. As in the other refutations, this is a sound, exhaustive refutation of one aspect of keith's argument. He has no right to employ the PoI because there is no reasonable expectation that any designer's choices would conform to a random distribution, and plenty of reason to believe they wouldn't. William J Murray
Me_Think @579: None of that matters wrt the fact that we know it is unlikely for any designer to choose in a manner that conforms to a flat probability distribution. William J Murray
HeKS, We seem to have some disagreement or misunderstanding.
HeKS #521: Equal probabilities assigned to all logically possible preferences do not signal indifference on the part of the agent in the sense of signaling that the agent does not have any preference.
Indifference (not have any preference) is assumed concurrent with assigning equal probabilities. In this case the agent’s indifference is assumed towards “all logically possible preferences”. In this case we are dealing with ‘meta-indifference’, IOW ‘indifference wrt preferences’ or ‘no preference wrt preferences’; this may be confusing :)
HeKS: It just means we have no way of knowing which of all logically possible preferences the agent happens to prefer.
I disagree. Without the assumption of indifference and absent knowledge, assigning equal probabilities has no warrant whatsoever - is hanging in midair. Assigning equal probabilities is not shorthand for "we don't know and we don't assume anything". By definition it must also include the assumption of indifference. There is simply no escape. Box
keith, I have refuted your argument and your "rebuttal" was to misrepresent Darwin. You don't have any idea what a nested hierarchy entails. You don't have any idea what unguided evolution predicts and you have no idea what you are talking about. Joe
keiths:
If you think there is a “refutation” of my argument that I have not already rebutted, then quote it.
HeKS:
Give me a break. That would involve me pointing to virtually everything I’ve written in the past two threads.
I figured you would try that. It's safer than pointing to something specific, isn't it? keith s
Keith,
I’ve been rebutting supposed “refutations” of my argument right and left, in this thread and many others.
Hah. Yeah right. In over 15 years of online discussions I have never come across anyone who was so thoroughly non-responsive to counter-arguments. Most people I've debated who have had bad arguments have at least tried to come back with some kind of response that dealt directly with the criticisms put to them, however terrible their responses might have been. You are a completely different animal. You don't even try to honestly interact with the arguments I've put to you. All you've been doing is quoting snippets of my arguments then writing some words after them as though you're responding to my points. At best you've responding to your own misrepresentations of tiny portions of my arguments. Usually you just ignore everything.
Right now you, WJM, and Box are struggling to find a criticism that will stick, just like the other IDers before you.
Nope. I'm not struggling at all. Every criticism of your argument that I've made sticks. Your use of the PoI in this context is obviously foolish and I've pointed out at length how obviously misguided it is, along with so many other aspects of your argument. The fact that obvious points fail to "stick" to you is irrelevant, as is the fact that you choose to doggedly hold to obvious nonsense.
If you think there is a “refutation” of my argument that I have not already rebutted, then quote it.
Give me a break. That would involve me pointing to virtually everything I've written in the past two threads. Perhaps you expected me to be fooled into thinking you responded to my arguments because you clipped a few of my words, misrepresented what I had originally said, then made a lame response to that. More likely you expected other people to be fooled. Or perhaps you're so utterly oblivious that you don't even understand the arguments being put to you as has been suggested. That explanation is looking more and more likely every day.
(You still haven’t addressed your severe circularity problem, by the way.)
Don't worry. I'll get to your foolish misconstrual of the argument when I have time. HeKS
WJM @ 531
Whether or not the agent actually reaches the goal doesn’t change the fact the agent will make choices weighted to acquire the goal. No matter how many “unknowns” you pile up about any designer, we know their choices will not conform to a flat probability distribution.
The more unknowns, the higher is the complexity. The designer has to search for his preferred method among the numerous methods available. What search is he going to use - random search, evolutionary search, hill climbing algorithm, Network neigbourhood, hyper-geometric search ? What is the probability that he is going to use any one of these search algorithm ?. If the methods available to designer are transient, then the search is constrained by time. The designer may not even be able to select his preferred method if it is transient. If you think the designer is intelligent, he may look for an optimum method instead of preferred method to reach his goal - which adds another layer of complexity - is he going to search for Global or Local optima? What does the solution landscape look like ? The optimization will depend on the landscape. So a lot depends on the 'unknowns.' Me_Think
HeKS #564:
Keith insists we work within the bounds of his approach or else we’re dodging the issues, even though we’re saying that his approach is mistaken to begin with.
Comparing the predictions of competing hypotheses is standard scientific procedure. My argument does this for ID and UE. ID loses to UE by an overwhelming margin. You need a counterargument. keith s
dgw:
In regards #561, one can simplify the problem still further by considering only two cases–either the universe and life is cheap to design/make or it is expensive (relative to some benefit).
What's your basis for neglecting the other cases?
If the former, then perhaps there are many universes–trillions of them even. One of them might have an ONH, just by accident.
Why would we happen to find ourselves in one with an accidental ONH? You don't think there's anything about intelligent life that requires an ONH, do you?
If the latter, then the Designer will apply great care in the preparation of his design. He will make sure it is a good design because of the cost involved. (A good design is one that is consistent with the intended purpose of the designer.)
But again, you don't know the Designer's goals. You don't know the Designer's capabilities. You don't know the Designer's resources or what he/she/it considers costly or cheap.
How do we choose between these two cases? I see a world of exquisite detail, fine tuning, and foresight.
Foresight, like the design of the recurrent laryngeal nerve? keith s
Heks, Do you believe in the biblical god? Do you believe that the biblical god created this universe? Do you believe in the special creation of humans by the biblical god? Do you believe 'the fall' is the reason that "Things do break down."? Is there anything in/of the universe that is not designed-created or that is not dependent on or a product/result of (including indirectly) design-creation? Pachyaena
HeKS #573, I've been rebutting supposed "refutations" of my argument right and left, in this thread and many others. Right now you, WJM, and Box are struggling to find a criticism that will stick, just like the other IDers before you. (You still haven't addressed your severe circularity problem, by the way.) If you think there is a "refutation" of my argument that I have not already rebutted, then quote it. I will either address it, or quote or link to where I have already addressed it. To defeat my argument, you need a refutation. Where is the refutation? If you actually believe that you have one, then present it. keith s
In regards #561, one can simplify the problem still further by considering only two cases--either the universe and life is cheap to design/make or it is expensive (relative to some benefit). If the former, then perhaps there are many universes--trillions of them even. One of them might have an ONH, just by accident. If the latter, then the Designer will apply great care in the preparation of his design. He will make sure it is a good design because of the cost involved. (A good design is one that is consistent with the intended purpose of the designer.) How do we choose between these two cases? I see a world of exquisite detail, fine tuning, and foresight. Abstract forms like mathematics and logic transcend existence and provide categories for a Designer's choices. These observations match the latter case better than the former. dgw
Keith, What you're failing to take into account is that, for us, the stakes are not high. You seem to have this delusion that you have us on the run, shaking in our boots, hiding under the tables. In reality, we're just sitting here shaking our heads at the sheer volume of false logic and inanity that accompanies your silly boasting. I'm not here because I need to prove to myself that your argument is silly. I've known it was silly since I first took the time to examine it. At first I stayed here because I thought there might be a chance to help you recognize where your argument was going wrong, but unlike your argument, you are utterly immune to criticism. At this point, I'm here only so that unbiased readers can see just how silly your argument is, how many examples of poor reasoning and unsubstantiated assumptions pour out of it at every point that it is prodded, and how studious you are in avoiding honest interaction with contrary arguments, but I think that goal has probably been achieved by this point (I'm certain you will have your cheerleaders in the bleachers, but I have no interest in them). I find it funny how every time someone points out that your argument is silly, misguided and fails you reply with something like: "People keep saying that, but nobody is able to disprove it." You don't seem to understand that you don't have to admit that your argument is silly, misguided, fails and has been disproved in order for all those things to be true of it. We know perfectly well you will never admit this under any circumstances and that you've completely insulated yourself from the possibility of disproof. Well, you're welcome to your bubble of defense mechanisms. You are clearly very reliant on this argument of yours and have a strong emotional need for it to be sound for pretty obvious reasons: for you, the stakes are high. HeKS
William, Besides your logic gaffe, you're not facing up to the gravity of the situation. As I explained:
You also seem to think that if you can prevent me from using the PoI, that ID is somehow saved from my argument. It isn’t, not by a long shot. Suppose that your crackpot idea were actually correct, and that my use of the PoI was illegitimate in this case. We’ve already agreed that we don’t know who the actual designer is, or what his/her/its characteristics are. If you wished to forbid the use of the PoI, then we couldn’t assume any probability distribution. So we have two competing hypotheses. One of them, unguided evolution, predicts the ONH out of trillions of possibilities. This prediction is confirmed in spectacular fashion. Meanwhile the competing hypothesis, ID, doesn’t predict anything. You’ve ruled that out by forbidding the use of the PoI. Which hypothesis should we favor, the one that makes a spectacularly successful prediction, or the one that doesn’t? You don’t have to be a statistical genius to figure this one out.
As you can see, it's not enough to try to thwart my use of the PoI. You need to come up with your own justified probability distribution that will enable ID to match UE's spectacular predictive success. Good luck with that. keith s
William #569:
Not knowing that it won’t be flat isn’t enough.
William's very next sentence:
Where did I say that the PoI should only be applied in situations where we know that the probability distribution is flat?
The logic is not strong in this one. keith s
HeKS:
I’m having a hard time remembering why we’re doing this.
Here's a reminder:
Regarding the question of why my argument is getting so much attention here at UD, I think the answer is pretty obvious: the stakes are high. My argument shows that as a hypothesis, unguided evolution beats ID by a factor of trillions. If my argument is correct, then you cannot be a rational IDer. You must choose either rationality, or ID, but you cannot choose both. Every IDer reading this faces three possibilities: Either 1) someone finds a way to convincingly refute my argument, or 2) you choose to be an irrational IDer, or 3) you rationally abandon ID, perhaps hoping that someone will eventually refute my argument so that you can become an IDer again. The stakes are extremely high for IDers, so of course this is getting a lot of attention.
keith s
Keith said:
First of all, we don’t know that the actual distribution won’t be flat. A flat distribution is one of many possibilities.
Not knowing that it won't be flat isn't enough.
Secondly, if you were correct that the PoI should only be applied in situations where we know that the probability distribution is flat, then there wouldn’t be any need for the PoI at all.
Where did I say that the PoI should only be applied in situations where we know that the probability distribution is flat?
So you, a random guy on the Internet, are presuming to tell statisticians that they cannot use the PoI in exactly the cases for which it is intended to be used and rationally should be used.
No, I'm asking you to support your assertion that the PoI is a standard statistical approach in cases like this and is used appropriately in your argument. This makes the second time that I've asked you to support an assertion you made and you've refused to do so and ridiculed me for simply asking you to support your own assertion. The rest of your post is nothing but reiteration of points/argument already long since addressed. William J Murray
HeKS said:
I’m having a hard time remembering why we’re doing this.
Dismantling Keith's "arguments" and showing how he is so wrong in so many different ways is addictive. It's fun for a while. Unraveling his mischaracterizations and diversions is also an interesting mental task for a time. Then it's more like an accident you can't turn your head away from and it starts sucking you into a never-ending pit. At some point you just have to leave him to his narrative. William J Murray
@Pachyaena #560
I’m a curious fellow so will you please explain how diseases, suffering, death, catastrophes, extinctions (and especially mass extinctions) are “reasonably sensible approaches to solving problems or achieving goals”, “more sensible, efficient, economical and organized [...] approaches”, “intelligent”, and “smarter”?
I'm trying to figure out what relevance you think this has to the primary topic of this thread. On the one hand, you seem to be assuming that ID claims everything that exists today exists in exactly the form it existed when it was first designed and continues to function exactly as originally intended. On the other hand you seem to be asking me to provide philosophical or religious defenses for phenomena and events in the history of life that nobody is claiming shows evidence of being the product of design in the first place. Chance events do happen. Things do break down. From an ID perspective, when things can be reasonably explained by reference to chance or law, that is the preferable explanation. This is not an argument against the appropriateness of inferring design in cases where we find positive evidence for it and chance or law do not seem to be viable explanations based on the current state of our scientific knowledge. HeKS
WJM #556:
The PoI is inappropriate to use in situations where you know the actual distribution is not going to be flat, even if you don’t know how it is going to be skewed.
William, You're in full Internet Crackpot Mode now. First of all, we don't know that the actual distribution won't be flat. A flat distribution is one of many possibilities. Secondly, if you were correct that the PoI should only be applied in situations where we know that the probability distribution is flat, then there wouldn't be any need for the PoI at all. We would just use the known probability distribution! So you, a random guy on the Internet, are presuming to tell statisticians that they cannot use the PoI in exactly the cases for which it is intended to be used and rationally should be used. Can you understand why knowledgeable onlookers will roll their eyes at this? You also seem to think that if you can prevent me from using the PoI, that ID is somehow saved from my argument. It isn't, not by a long shot. Suppose that your crackpot idea were actually correct, and that my use of the PoI was illegitimate in this case. We've already agreed that we don't know who the actual designer is, or what his/her/its characteristics are. If you wished to forbid the use of the PoI, then we couldn't assume any probability distribution. So we have two competing hypotheses. One of them, unguided evolution, predicts the ONH out of trillions of possibilities. This prediction is confirmed in spectacular fashion. Meanwhile the competing hypothesis, ID, doesn't predict anything. You've ruled that out by forbidding the use of the PoI. Which hypothesis should we favor, the one that makes a spectacularly successful prediction, or the one that doesn't? You don't have to be a statistical genius to figure this one out. keith s
To sum up Keith's position on using the PoI: Even though Keith admits that, given any designer, their choices will not likely conform to a flat probability distribution wrt all possible choices, he thinks that because we don't know how those choices will be skewed then it is appropriate to use the principle of indifference. Just knowing that the choices will be skewed wrt probability is enough to invalidate the use of the PoI. The PoI should only be used when there is no reason to believe the probability distribution will not be flat. William J Murray
@WJM #563
Here I’ve repeatedly said that we don’t know the actual possibilities available to the designer(s) of life (other than, via minimum assumptions, the one we actually see), yet now keith is challenging me to provide a probability distribution assessment for the possibilities he’s imagined or else I’m “dodging the question”.
Yes, it's an interesting dynamic we have going here, isn't it? Keith insists we work within the bounds of his approach or else we're dodging the issues, even though we're saying that his approach is mistaken to begin with. Meanwhile, Keith ignores everything that is inconvenient to his position, but when we point out that he's ignoring things he tells us to complain less and provide more substance ... substance that he then proceeds to ignore again. I'm having a hard time remembering why we're doing this. HeKS
Here I've repeatedly said that we don't know the actual possibilities available to the designer(s) of life (other than, via minimum assumptions, the one we actually see), yet now keith is challenging me to provide a probability distribution assessment for the possibilities he's imagined or else I'm "dodging the question". William J Murray
Pachyaena #552 So then you're using the term "creationism" in a very general sense rather than the one that relates to fundamentalist Christian Young Earth Creationism that begins with a particular literal reading of Genesis and conforms all evidence and facts to that particular view. In other words, you're using it in a way that could apply to people who begin with scientific observations and evidence, determine that there are indicators of intelligent design in biology, chemistry, astronomy, physics, and cosmology and thereby conclude that the designer is supernatural (i.e. originates or originated outside of our physical universe)? Well, OK, then some ID people, including myself, would fall into that category. But it's hard to figure out why you would use such a politically- and ideologically-charged term that evokes very specific ideas in most people's minds except for rhetorical purposes. #555 Read comment 553 by me. HeKS
dgw:
You are applying the wrong tools to the problem. I recommend you look at the field of decision theory. The argument from ignorance is your ignorance not the designer’s. Good designers make wise decisions consistent with whatever cost function they choose to optimize.
dgw, What cost function did the designer choose to optimize, and how do you know? keith s
HeKS said: "We expect intelligent beings to make context-sensitive choices and use reasonably sensible approaches to solving problems or achieving goals. The smarter they are, the more sensible, efficient, economical and organized we expect their approaches to be. If an approach to achieving a goal or solving a problem is reasonable, sensible, efficient, etc., then we have no good reason to think that an intelligent person would be unlikely to use it to achieve the goal or solve the problem." I'm a curious fellow so will you please explain how diseases, suffering, death, catastrophes, extinctions (and especially mass extinctions) are "reasonably sensible approaches to solving problems or achieving goals", "more sensible, efficient, economical and organized [...] approaches", "intelligent", and "smarter"? Do you believe in the biblical god? Pachyaena
Keith said:
If you can justify an alternative probability distribution, then go to it. Show your work.
Non-sequitur. I never claimed there was a means for developing a meaningful probability distribution or a reason to acquire one in the first place. I'm just pointing out that the PoI is inappropriately used in your argument.
Until then, we’ll do what the statisticians do, which is to employ the PoI. Statisticians know a lot more about their subject than you do, William.
I have justified the use of equal probabilities. It’s the standard statistical approach in cases like this. Statisticians know that it is justified; they use the PoI for a reason.
Please support your assertion that PoI is a standard statistical approach in cases like this and is used appropriately in your argument. William J Murray
Keith #551
HeKS #545 writes…
There is nothing to dodge.
…and then proceeds to dodge the question.
Nope. There is nothing to dodge, so I didn't dodge anything. You're talking as though you've set out a hurdle that needs to be jumped when you haven't. Your entire argument and approach is wrong-headed. I understand why you want to channel me into following your wrong-headed approach, but there's no reason for me to follow it because it is wrong-headed.
Just make the bounds tight enough so that you can show conclusively that the designer would have produced an ONH like the one we observe in nature.
I don't have to "show conclusively that the designer would have produced an ONH". It's funny that you think I do. You've ignored everything I've said on this issue. I'm not going to stay on this merry-go-round with you.
Unguided evolution predicts the ONH out of trillions of possibilities, and the prediction is spectacularly confirmed.
Nope. Differential distribution of traits / functions / innovations through some form of branching descent, whether continuous, contiguous or both predicts an ONH. Something called "unguided evolution" doesn't predict much of anything in particular. And you've also ignored everything I've ever said on this issue of the existence of something called "unguided evolution" as well.
You can try to show that ID also predicts the ONH, out of trillions of possibilities, but I don’t see the slightest possibility that you’ll be able to clear that bar.
It's not remotely necessary for me to do this (which you don't seem to understand), but you've ignored everything I've said on this issue as well. I'm getting sick of repeating myself over and over only to be completely ignored over and over. HeKS
Keith S, You are applying the wrong tools to the problem. I recommend you look at the field of decision theory. The argument from ignorance is your ignorance not the designer's. Good designers make wise decisions consistent with whatever cost function they choose to optimize. dgw
When we make the distribution flat, we are emphatically not saying that the designer has no preferences. Instead, we are saying that we don’t know exactly which preferences the designer has, so we therefore have no reason to prioritize some of them over others.
I'll go on down this rabbit hole a bit farther, just to point out more of keith's erroneous logic: Whether or not we have reason to prioritize the preferences doesn't mean we expect them to have a flat distribution. IOW, you just admitted that you know that in reality they will not have a flat distribution because any designer will have preferences (among other things, like instantiation constraints), but you argue that since we don't know what that non-equal distribution will be in favor of, we should treat it as if equal. Wrong. The PoI is inappropriate to use in situations where you know the actual distribution is not going to be flat, even if you don't know how it is going to be skewed. William J Murray
HeKS, read comment 540 by keith s. Pachyaena
William,
Unless you can show that we have good reason to think that given all possible designers & preferences we should have a flat probability distribution wrt all possible life system arrangements...
If you can justify an alternative probability distribution, then go to it. Show your work. Until then, we'll do what the statisticians do, which is to employ the PoI. Statisticians know a lot more about their subject than you do, William. keith s
@velikovskys #542
The designer is under no obligation to make his design and goals comprehensible.
Do you think it is therefore equally plausible that an intelligent designer will design things in a way that is incomprehensible, using methods that are inefficient, counter-productive, etc. with respect to achieving his/her goal?
Isn’t that the whole argument against bad design used by ID?
No. "Bad design" arguments have historically been based on ignorance, a lack of contextual consideration for overall system design and trade-offs, and theology, and they continue to be all those things. They tend to take the forms, "I wouldn't do it that way, therefore no intelligent designer would do it that", or "I don't know why that was done that way, therefore no intelligent designer would do it that way", or "That doesn't seem to be perfect, therefore no intelligent designer would have done it that way", or "This thing doesn't look optimally designed to me, therefore all design inferences in biology should be abandoned". Furthermore the more we learn about these supposed cases of "bad design" (inverted retina in vertebrates, recurrent laryngeal nerve, supposed vestigial organs, etc.) the more we find out that the claims and criticisms about them have been ill-founded or are highly suspect. This, of course, does not stop them from being endlessly regurgitated by ID critics. HeKS
HeKS asked; "Do you even understand what “creationism” is?" Yes. It's essentially the belief that a supernatural entity or entities created the universe, life, etc. I say supernatural entity/entities and essentially because various creationists believe in various things that all fit under the label of creationism. Regardless of which supernatural entity/entities, AKA God(s), creator(s), spirit(s), being(s), lord(s), holy ghost(s), master(s), etc., and other particulars of creation creationists believe in, they're creationists. Pachyaena
HeKS #545 writes...
There is nothing to dodge.
...and then proceeds to dodge the question. Here it is again:
Most importantly, if equal probabilities are not appropriate, then what is your alternative scheme? Show us the probabilities, and show us how you justify them.
I am not asking for exact values. You can put bounds on them if you like. Just make the bounds tight enough so that you can show conclusively that the designer would have produced an ONH like the one we observe in nature. Unguided evolution predicts the ONH out of trillions of possibilities, and the prediction is spectacularly confirmed. You can try to show that ID also predicts the ONH, out of trillions of possibilities, but I don't see the slightest possibility that you'll be able to clear that bar. If you want to try, though, knock yourself out. keith s
Keith said:
A flat distribution does not mean that the perpetrator has no preference.
Unless you can show that we have good reason to think that given all possible designers & preferences we should have a flat probability distribution wrt all possible life system arrangements, I don't see how this argument helps you. Edit: On second thought, I see I've been lured into a Rabbit Hole; the rabbit hole of designer "preferences". More on this later. William J Murray
velikovskys #542:
Isn’t the question not what the agent knows,for surely he is aware of his preferences, but what we know about an agent for whom we have no way to know what is arbitrary..Unless you know what the goals and capabilties of the designer are , you cannot know what is a logical approach.
That's right. The IDers are struggling with the fact that the probability distribution is epistemic -- that is, it reflects our unavoidable ignorance of the designer's goals, capabilities, resources, and limitations. When we make the distribution flat, we are emphatically not saying that the designer has no preferences. Instead, we are saying that we don't know exactly which preferences the designer has, so we therefore have no reason to prioritize some of them over others. Equivalently, you can say that there are many candidate designers, each of whom has different preferences, and we don't know which of them is the actual designer. It amounts to the same thing. If we knew which of them was the actual designer, then that candidate designer's preferences would be the ones we'd use. But we don't have that information. Until the IDers grasp that the distribution is epistemic, this discussion will go nowhere. keith s
Keith,
You’re making the same silly mistake that Box and HeKS made (though HeKS finally recognized it and backed off somewhat).
I don't recall ever being mistaken about what the indifference was, much less finally recognizing such a mistake. I was mistaken about what you thought you were assuming. I was right from the start about what you were actually assuming, as well as about the kinds of indifference necessarily implied by your argument, which you kept insisting didn't exist at all. Also, I've addressed your Bob and Betty example in detail and explained why it is completely irrelevant to the case at hand. HeKS
@Pachyaena
HeKS, your “positions” (as creationists) are obvious, despite what you IDers otherwise claim.
Do you even understand what "creationism" is? HeKS
William, You're making the same silly mistake that Box and HeKS made (though HeKS finally recognized it and backed off somewhat). The probability distribution in the Bob and Betty example is flat. There's a 50% chance that the perpetrator prefers trains, and a 50% chance that the perpetrator prefers planes. It's a flat distribution, yet that does not mean that the perpetrator has no preferences. Obviously. Bob has a preference, and Betty has a preference. The perpetrator is either Bob or Betty. Therefore the perpetrator has a preference in 100% of the possible cases. A flat distribution does not mean that the perpetrator has no preference. The distribution is flat because it represents two distinct possibilities, equally weighted, for each of which the distribution is as "unflat" as you can get. Likewise, a flat distribution does not mean that the designer has no preferences, nor that the designer would act as if he/she/it had no preferences. The distribution is flat because it represents many distinct possibilities. Do you understand why the distribution is flat in the Bob/Betty case? Do you understand that Bob and Betty nevertheless do have strong preferences? Box never made it over that intellectual hurdle, but can you? keith s
Keith, There is nothing to dodge. Nobody observes some solution to a problem, or some approach that was taken to achieving a goal, and then tries to determine the likelihood of it having been used by an intelligent person by using the method you're attempting to use or the one you're asking us to use. Nobody says, "Well, let me just figure out what literally every single logically possible approach to solving this problem might be so that I can assign a zero or near-zero probability to a few trillion of them and then identify every single sensible approach that might be taken and weight each of them by their utility and efficiency so that I can determine the probability that this particular approach that was used would have been used by an intelligent person." Nobody does this because there is no reason for them to do this. We expect intelligent beings to make context-sensitive choices and use reasonably sensible approaches to solving problems or achieving goals. The smarter they are, the more sensible, efficient, economical and organized we expect their approaches to be. If an approach to achieving a goal or solving a problem is reasonable, sensible, efficient, etc., then we have no good reason to think that an intelligent person would be unlikely to use it to achieve the goal or solve the problem. As usual, your argument is relying on a generally wrong-headed approach to the issue. P.S. No, this is not a Rain Fairy argument. If you think it is, re-read it, then re-read it again until you actually process what I am saying and what I am not saying. HeKS
keith s said: "I wish they’d make up their minds." Me too. Pachyaena
HeKS, your "positions" (as creationists) are obvious, despite what you IDers otherwise claim. Pachyaena
Intelligent agents do not choose approaches arbitrarily or indiscriminately. As such, regardless of what the goal/problem is, only a tiny subset of all logically possible approaches will ever have any probability of being attempted or used by an intelligent agent, making a flat probability distribution across the entire array of logically possible options unrealistic and implausible in the extreme every single time. Isn't the question not what the agent knows,for surely he is aware of his preferences, but what we know about an agent for whom we have no way to know what is arbitrary..Unless you know what the goals and capabilties of the designer are , you cannot know what is a logical approach.The designer is under no obligation to make his design and goals comprehensible . Isn't that the whole argument against bad design used by ID? velikovskys
WJM said:
That we don’t know how a designer would specifically prioritize choices doesn’t change the fact that we know any such designer would prioritize choices,
Keith said:
That’s actually not correct. It is possible for a designer to be indifferent about the pattern produced.
You went off on a tangent, Keith. A designer's indifference to the pattern produced is irrelevant to the fact that the choices the designer makes will not conform to a flat probability distribution.
It’s also possible for the designer to have strong preferences for pattern A over pattern B, or for pattern B over pattern A. We simply don’t know.
Once again, irrelevant to the fact that a designer's choices are not expected to conform to a flat probability distribution, making the use of the PoI inappropriate regardless of any designer's design preferences or habits. One might even go so far as to say that it is a definitional aspect of ID that the arrangement of the material qualities of a suspected artifact of ID necessarily imply that the designer utilized highly specified choices towards a goal (teleology). Employing a flat probability distribution to describe the choices of an ID designer would be like expecting a designer to act exactly like natural and random forces. IOW, you are expecting a designer to act just like a pair of dice when you apply a PoI to potential design choices. William J Murray
Pachyaena:
When IDers think it’s convenient for their ID arguments they say that ‘the designer’s’ goals, characteristics, capabilities and limitations are unknown but they really don’t believe that, and it shows, abundantly.
Yes, they do tend to switch back and forth according to convenience, don't they? For example, if someone points out a kludge like the recurrent laryngeal nerve in the giraffe, IDers will chide them for claiming that "the designer woodna dun it that way." Yet IDers themselves make this sort of argument all the time, as in this thread and also with regard to "junk" DNA. They are claiming that the designer "woodna left a bunch of junk in the genome", but on what basis? If the designer was willing to make the RLN twice as long as necessary, how do they know that he wouldn't tolerate a bunch of junk in the genome? I wish they'd make up their minds. keith s
HeKS, Don't dodge the question:
Most importantly, if equal probabilities are not appropriate, then what is your alternative scheme? Show us the probabilities, and show us how you justify them.
keith s
@Pachyaena, No, we will not accept Keith's points because they are wrong, and obviously wrong, and supported by obviously faulty logic, a determination to studiously ignore or misrepresent all contrary arguments, and by the continued attribution to us of positions we have not claimed. HeKS
Keith, You most certainly have not justified your use of equal probabilities in this case. The PoI relates to the assigning of probabilities to options that cannot be distinguished from each other except by reference to the application of arbitrary labels to them, such as the labels "heads" and "tails" given to the two sides of a coin, or the labels "Ace of Spades", "Queen of Hearts", "Ten of Diamonds", etc. to different cards in a deck. These are merely arbitrary labels given to otherwise indistinguishable things that have no effect on the probability that they will turn up. Calling one side of a coin "heads" does not make it any more likely to come up in a coin flip than "tails". Calling a card the "Ace of Spades" doesn't make it any more likely to be pulled out of the deck. These sorts of things are fundamentally different than than full array of logically possible approaches to achieving a goal or solving a problem that an intelligent person might select, which are inherently different with respect to their utility in achieving the goal or solving the problem. You cannot apply the PoI to this kind of scenario and I have already explained why. HeKS
keith s said: "The problem is that we don’t know the Designer’s goals, characteristics, capabilities or limitations, as ID proponents never tire of reminding us. (Creationists are typically more willing to make assumptions, as they are adamant that the Designer is their God.)" The thing is, ID proponents are creationists. Dishonest ones, and that's why they argue the way they do. They will not accept your points because they have an entrenched belief in who 'the designer' (AKA their chosen God) is and what he can and did/does do, and why. When IDers think it's convenient for their ID arguments they say that 'the designer’s' identity, goals, characteristics, capabilities and limitations are unknown (or irrelevant) but they really don't believe that, and it shows, abundantly. Pachyaena
HeKS and WJM: I have justified the use of equal probabilities. It's the standard statistical approach in cases like this. Statisticians know that it is justified; they use the PoI for a reason. My challenge to you:
Most importantly, if equal probabilities are not appropriate, then what is your alternative scheme? Show us the probabilities, and show us how you justify them.
No dodging, please. Answer the question. keith s
WJM:
That we don’t know how a designer would specifically prioritize choices doesn’t change the fact that we know any such designer would prioritize choices,
That's actually not correct. It is possible for a designer to be indifferent about the pattern produced. It's also possible for the designer to have strong preferences for pattern A over pattern B, or for pattern B over pattern A. We simply don't know. Humans, for example, generally don't care at all about whether their designs form an objective nested hierarchy. They just want their designs to work. To defeat my argument, IDers need to show that the Designer is very un-humanlike in this respect.
...and thus for any designer we would not expect a flat probability distribution.
For any particular designer (except an indifferent one) we would not expect a flat probability distribution. But we don't know which candidate designer is the actual designer. If there are myriad potential designers, some of whom prefer pattern A over pattern B, others of whom prefer pattern B over pattern A, and we have no way of deciding which is more likely, then how could we rationally assign a higher probability to A over B, or vice-versa? It makes no sense. The principle of indifference requires us to do the rational thing: assign equal probabilities. Once again:
You have no observations of your purported designer to fall back on, so you can’t rule out any of the possibilities. It’s the principle of indifference: you can’t rule any possibilities out, so you can’t assign them a probability of zero; you can’t be certain of any of the possibilities either, so you can’t assign a probability of one to any of them. What’s left? You have to assign nonzero probabilities. But not just any nonzero probabilities. They have to be equal nonzero probabilities, because otherwise you are favoring some possibilities over others, with no justification. It’s both common sense and standard statistical practice. I think the only reason you have trouble with it is that you don’t like the implications it has for ID. Be brave, William.
keith s
Keith asks:
Most importantly, if equal probabilities are not appropriate, then what is your alternative scheme?
No alternative scheme is necessary. You're the one insisting on a PoI flat distribution of imagined possibilities; refuting the appropriateness of your use of PoI is sufficient to undermine your argument. ID need not come up with some scheme for applying a probability distribution to choices available to a designer because ID isn't about the designer. Your "trillions of possibilities" at a flat probability distribution is (1) plucked out of nothing but your imagination, (2) inapplicable to actual intelligent, designing agencies by definition, and (3) unnecessary when your assumptions guarantee the conclusion that "natural forces" are the better explanation by ID theory's own stated falsifying metric. William J Murray
Keith, The utility of logically possible approaches are determined objectively with respect to a goal/problem. Any intelligent agent will quickly narrow the full array of logically possible approaches to a very small subset of viable options, even without having to consider precisely what every single logically possible approach is. Intelligent agents do not choose approaches arbitrarily or indiscriminately. As such, regardless of what the goal/problem is, only a tiny subset of all logically possible approaches will ever have any probability of being attempted or used by an intelligent agent, making a flat probability distribution across the entire array of logically possible options unrealistic and implausible in the extreme every single time. Also, you keep harping on this idea that ID proponents claim we can't know anything at all about the designer, as though this is the universal position of ID proponents. Where did you get this idea? HeKS
Me_Think said:
We have no idea if the intelligent agent is someone who can make choices and reach the goal set (How many of us have set goals and reached it ?) .
Making choices is part of the definitional aspect of intelligent design. Whether or not the agent actually reaches the goal doesn't change the fact the agent will make choices weighted to acquire the goal.
We don’t know if agent is he she or it, we don’t know the choices available to him/her/it, we don’t know the goal of the designer. What is the agent’s goal for creating life ? who knows.
None of this matters wrt whether or not PoI is appropriate to use in this case. No matter how many "unknowns" you pile up about any designer, we know their choices will not conform to a flat probability distribution.
You can’t claim the ID agent did it on purpose because neither you nor I know the aim of the ID agent.
I'm not the one making claims. I'm the one (among others) challenging keith and others to support their claims, and I'm the one (among others) pointing out the flaws in Keith's argument. William J Murray
HeKS:
I’m a “he”.
Thanks. keith s
I'm a "he". HeKS
HeKS #521:
Equal probabilities assigned to all logically possible preferences do signal indifference on the part of the agent in the sense of signalling that the agent does not care about the quality of his “preference”, since there is an equal probability that he will prefer something stupid, inefficient, impractical, etc., as something smart, efficient, practical, etc.
Stupid by whose standards, relative to what goals? Ditto for "inefficient" and "impractical". What facts do you know about the Designer that the rest of us don't, and where did you get your information? Most importantly, if equal probabilities are not appropriate, then what is your alternative scheme? Show us the probabilities, and show us how you justify them. keith s
WJM @ 496
...Since the possibilites we are talking about are presumably the various choices an intelligent designer would make wrt building a functional landscape of living organisms...
We have no idea if the intelligent agent is someone who can make choices and reach the goal set (How many of us have set goals and reached it ?) . We don't know if agent is he she or it, we don't know the choices available to him/her/it, we don't know the goal of the designer. What is the agent's goal for creating life ? who knows. Neither ID nor we have any idea about agent, choices or aim. What do you expect any reasonable person to assume? Given that trillions of biological processes have to be managed, we assume the agent is powerful and had choices which he could have followed but chose to follow ONH. You can't claim the ID agent did it on purpose because neither you nor I know the aim of the ID agent. Me_Think
Keith said:
Any given designer candidate will likely have preferences, but we don’t know which of the candidates is the actual designer. One candidate may favor pattern 44,099,396, while another may avoid it like the plague. We don’t have the information we would need to prioritize pattern 44,099,396 over the others, so we do the rational thing by granting it equal probability.
That we don't know how a designer would specifically prioritize choices doesn't change the fact that we know any such designer would prioritize choices, and thus for any designer we would not expect a flat probability distribution. The PoI is not appropriate to use where we know the probability distribution is not going to be flat wrt all possible choices. William J Murray
Box, Even HeKS is trying to explain this to you:'
Equal probabilities assigned to all logically possible preferences do not signal indifference on the part of the agent in the sense of signalling that the agent does not have any preference. It just means we have no way of knowing which of all logically possible preferences the agent happens to prefer.
Since you normally depend on HeKS to make your arguments for you, why not listen to him or her this time? ETA: By the way, HeKS, could you let us know which pronoun to use when referring to you? Your username is ambiguous. keith s
Of course, to be clear, that is merely what the implications are of assigning equal probabilities. But as I've said, trying to apply the principle of indifference to assign equal probabilities in the context of this debate is obviously silly. HeKS
Keith,
Keith: Sorry, Box. That’s as simple as I can make it. You either get it, or you don’t.
Keith, even your own mother will not believe that this perpetrator-Bob/Betty mishmash is the 'simplest' that you can come up with. C'mon Keith, explain to me why it makes perfect sense to assign probabilities - equal or not- to a process without knowing anything about it. And most importantly: how to do it without making unsupported assumptions. I'm here waiting for you and willing to learn! Box
Wjm, I didn”t say we could know any of those specifics; I said that what we would necessarily have to infer is that some possibilities would definitely have a greater chance of being used by the designer than others. This by itself means the PoI is inappropriate to use in this case. Without a knowledge of the goals and capabilities of the designer, which possibilities would have a greater chance ? velikovskys
Box,
Keith: Equal probabilities do not signal indifference.
This statement from Keith is not particular conducive to clear understanding as it is far too vague. Equal probabilities assigned to all logically possible preferences do not signal indifference on the part of the agent in the sense of signalling that the agent does not have any preference. It just means we have no way of knowing which of all logically possible preferences the agent happens to prefer. Equal probabilities assigned to all logically possible preferences do signal "indifference" (i.e. lack of difference) between the preferences in the sense that they are functionally indistinguishable in the present context (i.e. we have no criteria by which to make non-arbitrary distinctions between them). Equal probabilities assigned to all logically possible preferences do signal indifference on the part of the agent in the sense of signalling that the agent does not care about the quality of his "preference", since there is an equal probability that he will prefer something stupid, inefficient, impractical, etc., as something smart, efficient, practical, etc. HeKS
WJM #488:
I said that what we would necessarily have to infer is that some possibilities would definitely have a greater chance of being used by the designer than others. This by itself means the PoI is inappropriate to use in this case.
Any given designer candidate will likely have preferences, but we don't know which of the candidates is the actual designer. One candidate may favor pattern 44,099,396, while another may avoid it like the plague. We don't have the information we would need to prioritize pattern 44,099,396 over the others, so we do the rational thing by granting it equal probability. keith s
Sorry, Box. That's as simple as I can make it. You either get it, or you don't. keith s
Keith #516,
Keith: The coin is not the perpetrator, and the trillion-sided die is not the designer.
I disagree. The coin is analogous to the perpetrator and the trillion-sided die is analogous to the designer.
Keith: The coin models the fact that we don’t know which of the two suspects, Bob or Betty, is the perpetrator.
Indeed. The coin toss can produce either heads or tails. Just like the perpetrator can be proved to be either Bob or Betty. So the comparison is apt. The coin is an apt comparison with the perpetrator. What is the problem?
Keith: The trillion-sided die models the fact that we don’t know which of the many candidates is the actual designer, and thus we have no idea which one of the trillions of possible patterns he/she/it would adopt.
This is confused. A throw with a fair trillion-sided die models the choice of an indifferent designer wrt the ordering of life. There is no need for assuming the existence of many candidate-designers. Box
Box #493:
Dear onlooker, I’m sorry that you have to read all this.
Box, I'm sure the onlookers appreciate your apology, but they would appreciate it even more if you would pause and think about this instead of repeating the same mistake again and again. keith s
Box, The coin is not the perpetrator, and the trillion-sided die is not the designer. The coin models the fact that we don't know which of the two suspects, Bob or Betty, is the perpetrator. The trillion-sided die models the fact that we don't know which of the many candidates is the actual designer, and thus we have no idea which one of the trillions of possible patterns he/she/it would adopt. Equal probabilities don't mean that the perpetrator is indifferent, and they don't mean that the designer is indifferent, either. It's simple logic. keith s
Keith #514,
Box: Bob prefers travel by train and Betty prefers flying. However the hypothetical perpetrator, who could be either Bob or Betty, must be said to be indifferent (or neutral) towards travel by train or airplane.
Keith: Your logic is atrocious.
No your Bob/Betty/perpetrator scenario is. It is simply ill-matched.
Keith: We know that the perpetrator is either Bob or Betty. If it’s Bob, then the perpetrator is not indifferent. If it’s Betty, then the perpetrator is not indifferent. In 100% of the cases, the perpetrator is not indifferent.
Keith, let’s look at it this way: We have a fair coin (the perpetrator) and we have heads (Bob) and tails (Betty). Now we toss the coin. It can go either way. IOW the coin is indifferent - neutral. If heads then Bob and train. If tails then Betty and airplane. 50-50 ; equal probability. IOW the coin (the perpetrator) is "indifferent" towards travel by train or airplane. Box
keiths:
When we say that the probabilities are equal in the Bob/Betty case, we are not saying that Bob and Betty are indifferent to the mode of travel.
Box:
This is correct, but nobody is saying that. Bob prefers travel by train and Betty prefers flying. However the hypothetical perpetrator, who could be either Bob or Betty, must be said to be indifferent (or neutral) towards travel by train or airplane.
Your logic is atrocious. We know that the perpetrator is either Bob or Betty. If it's Bob, then the perpetrator is not indifferent. If it's Betty, then the perpetrator is not indifferent. In 100% of the cases, the perpetrator is not indifferent. Your statement is wrong:
if “equal probabilities” then “no preference”
The correct statement is Equal probabilities do not signal indifference. Bob and Betty are not indifferent. The perpetrator is either Bob or Betty. Therefore the perpetrator is not indifferent. keith s
Box,
Which pro-ID argument? Since when is the simple logical truth that ‘absent knowledge we cannot assign probabilities’ a pro-ID argument?
You are deploying it in defense of ID, aren't you? The problem, yet again, is that your supposed "simple logical truth" isn't a truth at all, and if it were a truth, it would show that the Rain Fairy hypothesis is unassailable. By your own logic, Box, you should be a Rain Fairyist. Why aren't you? keith s
@Box #511, The problem is that you're expecting keith to understand that not every statement out of an ID proponents mouth is an argument for design. Keith has created a fantasy world for himself where everything that a pro-ID person says passes through a filter and gets translated into something that is easier for keith to try to deal with. HeKS
Keith: If your pro-ID argument works equally well in defense of the Rain Fairy, you have a bad argument.
Which pro-ID argument? Since when is the simple logical truth that 'absent knowledge we cannot assign probabilities' a pro-ID argument? BTW about the Rain Fairy read #492 Box
dgw:
Doesn’t decision theory provide a better viewpoint than PoI? By definition the discussion is about an Intelligent Designer. Designers make decisions or design choices in order to achieve some expected utility. Good designs are optimized to attain benefits at low cost.
The problem is that we don't know the Designer's goals, characteristics, capabilities or limitations, as ID proponents never tire of reminding us. (Creationists are typically more willing to make assumptions, as they are adamant that the Designer is their God.) If you don't know the Designer's goals, you can't decide what counts as a "benefit". If you don't know the Designer's capabilities and available resources, you can't decide what constitutes "low cost". And so on. Following Haldane, maybe the Designer is fond of beetles. He created an excellent process for producing hundreds of thousands of beetle species, and we humans are just an accidental byproduct of that process. keith s
Box:
p.s. Is there an argument in there somewhere?
Yes, as I have explained many times:
The take-home lesson: If your pro-ID argument works equally well in defense of the Rain Fairy, you have a bad argument.
keith s
Keith: All hail the Rain Fairy! May She water our lawns and provide blue skies for our vacations!
Yeah! All hail to the Rain Fairy! . . p.s. Is there an argument in there somewhere? Box
Phinehas @ 503: Yep, classic rain fairy. To design much of the weather we see still outstrips our capabilities by quite a bit. To design such would take someone highly educated, intelligent, or both. 5for
@Phinehas #503 How long do you think it will be before Keith accuses you of the Rain Fairy Fallacy because he doesn't understand the nature of the argument? I'm guessing not too long. HeKS
Box:
If we don’t know what sort of process the designer prefers, we cannot assign probabilities FULL STOP.
Rain Fairyist:
If we don’t know what sort of weather pattern the Rain Fairy prefers, we cannot assign probabilities FULL STOP.
All hail the Rain Fairy! May She water our lawns and provide blue skies for our vacations! Box, why aren't you a Rain Fairyist? Your "logic" shows that we cannot reject Her in favor of unguided meteorology. keith s
@Me_Think #491
HeKS @ 486
Let’s start by taking mode of transportation as an example, and let’s consider a scenario..
In your scenario, you know the ID agent (people), you know their methods (transport modes) and you even know the goal (travel certain distance to the target). You can’t invoke Principle of Insufficient reason when you know every thing!!
Did you keep reading or did you just stop there at the part you quoted? If you like, you could take my A to B example, where B is 300 KMs away from A, and simply adjust it like this:
Now, suppose we were to postulate the existence of an unknown traveler who is going to travel from specified location A to unknown specified location B, where all we know about B is that it is [a minimum of 0.25 KMs, or 5 ft., or whatever you like] from A[, with no upper bound]. Suppose further that the list of modes of transportation we’ve listed so far exhaust all logically possible options, giving us a total of 27 logically possible options for ways of traveling between A and B. If we attempt to use the principle of indifference in determining the probability of any given mode of transportation being used by the unknown traveler, such that each mode is assigned a probability of 0.037 (or 1/27), then we are saying it is just as likely that a randomly selected traveler will choose to make the trip walking on his hands as in a car, and it is just as likely that a randomly selected traveler will lie flat and roll to the location as it is that he will take a train there. In other words, we’re saying that if we randomly select a person to make the trip in question, it is just as plausible to think that person might choose to get to the location by bouncing on a pogo stick as it is to think he might choose to get there by plane. In still other words, we’re being complete idiots.
This doesn't change anything. We don't know anything about the traveler, and we don't know anything about the exact location or distance of B in relation to A. All we know is the range of logical possibilities and that the goal is to travel from one place to another. Even being almost completely in the dark like this, we still can't apply the principle of indifference to the range of logical possibilities and expect to be taken seriously, because there is inherent (as opposed to arbitrary) difference between the logical possibilities with respect to their utility in achieving the goal, as there is always inherent difference in the logically possible approaches to achieving any goal. The nature of any problem / goal / project gives us sufficient reason to use a non-equivalent probability distribution across the logically possible array of approaches to solving the problem, achieving the goal, or undertaking the project, making some small subset of approaches highly likely to be used, while identifying most as having zero or near-zero probability of actually being used. And, as I've said, the more intelligent, experienced and skilled the agent who is trying to achieve the goal or solve the problem, the narrower the subset of probable approaches is likely to be. And if it turns out that you're looking after the fact at some method that seems to have been used to solve a problem or achieve a goal, and the method appears to be an efficient way of solving the problem or achieving the goal, and your argument relies on claiming it is highly unlikely that an intelligent being would have used that particular method instead of the vast array of other logically possible methods, the overwhelming majority of which would have been far less efficient and much more disorganized, then you need to rethink the nature of your argument. HeKS
We can actually know quite a bit about the designer by looking at what has been designed (assuming it has been designed for the sake of our thought experiment). Much of the technology we see in the cell still outstrips our own capabilities by a good bit. To design such would take someone who was highly intelligent, well educated, or both. Phinehas
5for: The probabilities are equal because we have no knowledge of the designer and therefore can make no assumptions about what sort of process it prefers.
If we don't know what sort of process the designer prefers, we cannot assign probabilities FULL STOP. All we can do is manufacture assumptions without warrant about his preferences. Absent knowledge all manufactured assumptions are equally valid or invalid. Similarly, if we have no idea if a die is loaded or not we cannot assign (equal) probabilities. Nor does the lack of knowledge about the die legitimize the assignment of equal probabilities. It really is that simple. Keep in mind that one should not conflate "equal probabilities" with "no assumptions". Thank you for your question. Box
The probabilities are equal because we have no knowledge of the designer and therefore can make no assumptions about what sort of process it prefers.
We do have knowledge about the designer; at the very least, we have definitional knowledge, as HeKS points out. The definitional knowledge by itself renders the PoI inappropriate for use in the case, because no one expects a deliberate, intelligent, designing agency to make choices from all possiblitlies according to a flat distribution. William J Murray
Doesn't decision theory provide a better viewpoint than PoI? By definition the discussion is about an Intelligent Designer. Designers make decisions or design choices in order to achieve some expected utility. Good designs are optimized to attain benefits at low cost. dgw
Box @493: What Keith says is completely correct. The probabilities are equal because we have no knowledge of the designer and therefore can make no assumptions about what sort of process it prefers. That does not of course mean that the designer doesn't have a preference. Thanks, an onlooker 5for
Well, let me correct this: One of the most common examples of PoI is dice or cards, where a roll of a die has an assumedly equal chance of landing on any particular [side], or where any particular card may be drawn[by chance]. An appropriate analogy to this would be if an intelligent entity was deliberately choosing [desired] cards in order to win a game. Even if we don’t know what game the person is playing, we would know the choices will be weighted in favor of winning the game. Thus, even not knowing the game, we cannot assume PoI because we know the probability distribution will not be flat. If we have good reason to believe the probability distribution between possibilities will not be flat, as is surely the case of an intelligent designer deliberately making choices from the pool of possibilities in order to acquire his goal, the PoI should not be applied. William J Murray
William #496
IOW, the choices available cannot be considered as indifferent wrt the outcome given that the choices would be made by a deliberate agency attempting to generate a functional landscape of living organisms.
[ Keith modus on ] Do you seriously not understand that this cannot be true in the Bob/Betty scenario? What choice does the perpetrator have to be either Bob or Betty? Are Bob or Betty indifferent wrt travel? I would think not! Why don't you get that your hypothetical perpetrator doesn't even really exist? Just like your imagined Rain Fairy does not exist! So he cannot make choices so we must invoke PoI so there is equal probability! I’m sorry, but I don’t see how to make my example any simpler than it already is. It may just be beyond your grasp. It’s both common sense and standard statistical practice. I think the only reason you have trouble with it is that you don’t like the implications it has for ID. William, please pause and think about this instead of dashing off another hasty and ill-considered response. Be brave, William. [ Keith modus off ] Box
Me_Think said:
There would be no doubts if ID could identify it’s designer and designer’s capabilities .
There would be no doubts if Darwinists could identify abiogenesis and demonstrate it plausibly capable of generating living organisms. As far as the proper use of the PoI: For the use of a PoI to be appropriate, it's not enough to just not know the probability distribution between a known set of possibilities; one must also consider all the possibilities indistinguishable from each other except for the fact that they are separate possibilities. Since the possibilites we are talking about are presumably the various choices an intelligent designer would make wrt building a functional landscape of living organisms, we can hardly assume that every possible choice is equally likely. The choices would certainly be weighed wrt achieving the goal of a functional landscape of living organisms. (Let's remember Keith's possibilities haven't even been shown to be actual possibilities for the designer to be able to instantiate; they are just whatever Keith can imagine as rearrangements of the pattern of life.) IOW, the choices available cannot be considered as indifferent wrt the outcome given that the choices would be made by a deliberate agency attempting to generate a functional landscape of living organisms. One of the most common examples of PoI is dice or cards, where a roll of a die has an assumedly equal chance off landing on any particular card, or where any particular card may be drawn. An appropriate analogy to this would be if an intelligent entity was deliberately choosing cards in order to win a game. Even if we don't know what game the person is playing, we would know the choices will be weighted in favor of winning the game. Thus, even not knowing the game, we cannot assume PoI because we know the probability distribution will not be flat. William J Murray
KeithS
Meanwhile, StephenB and William J Murray (along with HeKS) fall straight into the Rain Fairy trap.
You assume without warrant that StephenB wrote the passages that you attribute to him. Your reasoning is circular because I can substitute the rain fairy for StephenB. The rain fairy fell straight into the rain fairy trap. This argument fits the evidence just as well as the argument that an intelligent agent was at work. Therefore, natural laws are trillions of times more likely to have written those passages. Welcome to the wacky world of KeithS. StephenB
F/N: On rain fairy etc strwman arguments (after years of opportunities and specific corrections regarding misunderstandings or misrepresenatations of the deisgn inference explanatory filter and associated logic): https://uncommondesc.wpengine.com/atheism/fyi-ftr-what-about-onhs-vs-invisible-rain-fairies-salt-leprechauns-and-planet-pushing-angels-etc/ KF kairosfocus
Dear onlooker, I'm sorry that you have to read all this.
Keith: Box’s confusion actually runs the other way. He thinks that if the probabilities are equal, then the designer doesn’t prefer one thing over another.
This statement by Keith is outrageous. Keith dares to claim that the following is "confused":
if the probabilities are equal, then the designer doesn’t prefer one thing over another.
Allow me to abstract to the statement:
if "equal probabilities" then "no preference"
Only a madman holds that this is confused. On a fair die, every number has an equal chance of being rolled (1/6 on a cubic 6-sided die). IOW a fair die has "no preference". On a biased die, some numbers are more likely to be rolled than others, in which case there is preference (bias). Box
Keith said:
Those passages become quite comical when the Rain Fairy is substituted for the designer, don’t they? Yet the logic is the same.
Keith seems to think that substituting a ridiculing term changes the validity of an argument. Let's say weather made patterns that seemed to require intelligence. For example, sequences of clouds appeared to be blueprints for constructing highly functional devices. Also, let's say that different parts of the cloud sequences denoted types of materials to be used. When humans followed these apparent blueprints, it resulted in highly functional devices with various highly specified uses. Let's say that one group of people, the cloud naturalists, insist that natural forces completely accounted for the patterns. Another group, the IDists, think it's probably more likely that an intelligent agency is responsible for those patterns, and that one can examine the kinds of devices contained in the cloud code to reach some provisional conclusions about the intelligence putatively behind the codes. Slapping the term "Rain Fairy" on the presumed intelligence behind the codes doesn't make the logic employed ridiculous; it just attempts to characterize the opposing view as ridiculous via demeaning terminology. William J Murray
Box @ 487
I don’t see any reason for your objection. Something must have confused you.
There would be no doubts if ID could identify it's designer and designer's capabilities . Me_Think
Keith said:
It must be crowded down there in the Rain Fairy trap. Sorry, guys. I would have made it larger if I’d known how many of you were going to fall in.
The Rain Fairy analogies have been utterly debunked several times. Keith doesn't understand that in making an argument, it is inappropriate to use an analogy that assumes the very thing being challenged. ID doesn't challenge that weather patterns are sufficiently explained by natural forces because we don't see patterns in the weather that would seem to require intelligent agency. If we saw a pattern in the weather, say, clouds that spelled out a Shakespearean sonnet, then we would indeed challenge the claim that unguided forces were a sufficient explanation for that outcome. William J Murray
HeKS @ 486
Let’s start by taking mode of transportation as an example, and let’s consider a scenario..
In your scenario, you know the ID agent (people), you know their methods (transport modes) and you even know the goal (travel certain distance to the target). You can't invoke Principle of Insufficient reason when you know every thing!! Me_Think
velikovskys @455: How can one know what undermines or progresses the effort without any actual knowledge of the imagined goals and imagined abilities of an imagined designer? I didn''t say we could know any of those specifics; I said that what we would necessarily have to infer is that some possibilities would definitely have a greater chance of being used by the designer than others. This by itself means the PoI is inappropriate to use in this case. William J Murray
Keith: Box’s confusion actually runs the other way. He thinks that if the probabilities are equal, then the designer doesn’t prefer one thing over another.
Well, if this is indicative for confusion on my part, I’m happy to be confused. Similarly, if one assigns equal probabilities to the role of a die, one assumes a fair (indifferent) die, which does not 'prefer' any side over the other.
Keith: What he [Box] doesn’t (or won’t) realize is that “the designer” is a role, and that there are thousands of distinct candidates for that designer role, each with different characteristics, just as there are two candidates (Bob and Betty) for the perpetrator role in my example, each with different preferences regarding the mode of travel.
This a clear attempt to complicate the matter for no reason at all, but go right ahead, it won’t get you anywhere.
Keith: When we say that the probabilities are equal in the Bob/Betty case, we are not saying that Bob and Betty are indifferent to the mode of travel.
This is correct, but nobody is saying that. Bob prefers travel by train and Betty prefers flying. However the hypothetical perpetrator, who could be either Bob or Betty, must be said to be indifferent (or neutral) towards travel by train or airplane. Nothing new here, in #475 I wrote:
Box: if there would be a perpetrator who is equally likely to travel by train or plane, then one could say that he is specifically indifferent about traveling by train or plane.
Keith: When we say that the probabilities are equal in the Bob/Betty case, we are not saying that Bob and Betty are indifferent to the mode of travel. When we say that the probabilities are equal in the ID case, we are not saying that the designer is indifferent to the choice of pattern.
Nope Keith. Let me correct that for you:
When we say that the probabilities are equal in the Bob/Betty case, we are saying that Bob and Betty are the hypothetical perpetrator is indifferent to the mode of travel. When we say that the probabilities are equal in the ID case, we are saying that the designer is indifferent to the choice of pattern.
Keith: I’m not sure why Box is having such trouble with this.
Perhaps because Box can do some basic logic? // -- Me_Think# 83 Indeed, if a designer prefers something over other, it is not equi-probable and we will have a different probability ratio. Obviously if the opposite is true, as in Keith’s example, and we do have an equal probability ratio then there is no preference. And that’s exactly what I said. I don’t see any reason for your objection. Something must have confused you. Box
@Keith #392
Suppose I’m investigating a crime perpetrated by a lone individual. I narrow the suspects down to two, Bob and Betty, each of whom seems equally likely to have committed the crime, based on the evidence to date. Bob likes traveling by train, but Betty prefers flying. I can truthfully say “there’s a 50% chance that the perpetrator prefers flying, and a 50% chance that the perpetrator prefer traveling by train.” Does that mean that the perpetrator is indifferent to the mode of transportation? Obviously not. There’s also a 50% chance that the perpetrator is a man, and a 50% chance that the perpetrator is a woman. Does that mean that the perpetrator is a hermaphrodite? Obviously not.
The glaring problem with your analogy is that by saying both Bob and Betty seem "equally likely to have committed the crime, based on the evidence to date", you are saying that the issues of gender and preference in mode of transportation are completely irrelevant to the crime, and so the crime we're investigating gives us no information by which we can distinguish male from female, or plane from train, in the context of committing the crime. As such, knowing that Bob and Betty are the only two possible suspects, and knowing that one actually prefers planes and the other trains, we can indeed say that there's a 50% chance the perpetrator prefers to fly and a 50% chance they like to take trains. Same goes for gender. But in saying these things, we're making statements that are ultimately meaningless with respect to identifying which member of this predetermined pool of two actual persons with known preferences is more likely to have committed the crime. There is nothing about this example that is relevant or analogous to the current debate or that justifies your methodology or line of reasoning. Let's look deeper into the problems. Let's start by taking mode of transportation as an example, and let's consider a scenario: Suppose we gather a pool of potential adult travelers for an experiment. We don't tell them how they were selected, but our selection was determined on the basis that they each have a different general preference for a mode of travel. One person really likes to fly, another to take the train, another to travel by boat, another by car, and another to walk. If we specify a hypothetical traveler as being a randomly selected member of this group, then each of the five modes of travel mentioned have a 1-in-5 chance of being the hypothetical traveler's preferred method of travel. No preferred method of travel is more likely than any other to be present in the hypothetical traveler. Great. Now, suppose we specify a goal for this hypothetical traveler of retrieving an object from some destination a few towns further inland from the hypothetical traveler's starting position (let's say it's roughly a 60 KM round-trip). Do we think that each of the five modes of transporation have an equal probability of actually being used by the hypothetical traveler in retrieving the object? Of course we don't. Why not? Because the goal / problem / target offers criteria according to which the modes of travel can be differentiated. On a random selection, we have a 0.2 probability of picking a traveler who prefers to travel by boat, but basically a 0 probability of picking one who will travel by boat to achieve the goal (the nature of the goal/problem makes reaching the destination by boat travel infeasible and would involve counter-productive activity to make boat travel any part of the mode of transportation). We also have a 0.2 probability of picking a traveler who prefers to travel by plane, but a much lower probability (near 0 unless we pick a plane owner and even then not much higher) of picking one who will travel by plane (the nature of the goal/problem makes travel by plane highly impractical, considering cost of fuel for a plane owner or tickets for a passenger, travel distance to and from airports, waiting times for departures, etc.). We also have 0.2 probability of picking a traveler who prefers to travel by walking, but a near 0 probability of picking someone who will walk to retrieve the target object (the nature of the goal/problem again makes walking impractical, since it would take the person around 14 hours to make the round trip if they maintained a consistent pace, which would be highly unlikely). There is again a 0.2 probability of picking a traveler who likes to travel by train, but likely a lower probability - perhaps 0.1 or less - of picking someone who will travel by train to achieve the goal (the nature of the goal/problem makes travel by train impractical, considering cost of tickets, travel distance to and from train stations, waiting times for departures, etc.). And, finally, we have a 0.2 probability of picking a traveler who prefers to travel by car, but closer to a 0.9 or higher probability of picking someone who will travel by car to achieve the goal (the nature of the goal/problem makes travel by car the most practical and efficient option by a wide margin). So, we set things up such that our hypothetical traveler had an equal probability of prefering any of the five modes of transporation, but then determined prior to actually selecting the hypothetical traveler from the pool that there was approximately a 0.9 probability that the hypothetical traveler, when selected, would use car-travel as their mode of transportation in the experiment. It should be obvious what happened here, but I'm not confident that anything is obvious anymore, so I'll explain it. When determing the probability that any given preferred mode of transporation would be present in the hypothetical traveler, it was appropriate to use the principle of indifference because, at that point, there was no difference between "plane travel", "train travel", "car travel", etc., other than the labels assigned to them. Each was simply "a preference", like "a side of a coin" or "a card in a deck". The mode of transporation had no relevance to anything at this point other than it being a vague type of general preference that might exist in a subject. As such, not knowing anything about the hypothetical traveler other than the array of options for "preference in mode of transporation" that might be present in him/her, it was appropriate to assign an equal probability to each "preference in mode of transportation" in terms of its probability of being present in the hypothetical traveler once selected. However, as soon as you add to the mix a goal to be achieved, a problem to be solved, or a project to be undertaken, the probability of any given general preference for mode of travel being found in the hypothetical traveler loses most of its value in predicting the probability of which mode of transportation that hypothetical traveler will use, because the modes of transporation are not "indifferent" with respect to their practicality and efficiency in being used to achieve the goal, solve the problem, or undertake the project. The differences in practicality, efficiency, etc., affect the probability that any given approach will actually be put to use, and adjustments to the goal or problem with lead to adjustments in the probability of which approach is likely to be used. Intelligent beings are not utterly ruled by their preferences and do not make decisions on the basis of preference alone. The ability to consider factors beyond one's inate preferences is part of what it means to be intelligent. In achieving a goal or solving a problem, intelligent beings narrow the array of logically possible approaches to a subset of options that seem, objectively, to be the best methods of approach. Preference primarily comes into play in choosing between options that seem equally (or almost equally) sensible, such that no particular option stands out as the obviously best, most efficient, most practical option, and so the primary thing left to distingish the options is merely preference. The probability that any randomly selected intelligent being will utterly ignore this filtered approach to deciding on a course of action in solving a randomly selected problem and will instead opt for a course of action that they know to be counter-productive, highly impractical, highly inefficient, and unlikely to result in success, is overwhelmingly small in comparison to the probability that they will follow the filtered approach just described. But this is only one problem with your line of reasoning. Returning to the orginal example, another problem is that we're dealing with a predetermined pool of persons who have been assigned generally rational, viable preferences relative to the category of "modes of transportation'. In other words, turning to my expanded example, given the very general task of purposefully traveling from one location to another location that is at least 0.25 KMs away, with no upper bound, all five modes of transportation fit quite rationally and expectedly into the category of modes of transportation that are likely to be used in completing the task, with their relative frequency and/or viability of use shifting based on the specifics of the identified target location. If you were to stop 100 random adults on the street to ask them what mode of transportation they would use to achieve the task while sufficiently varying the nature and distance of the specific target location, you could be virtually certain that each of the five modes of transportation (plane, train, boat, car, walking) would come up at least once, and completely certain that some of them would come up over and over. Near the lowest end of distances you would get a lot of people choosing to walk or drive. Then, for a range of distances you'd likely get a choice of driving almost across the board. At some point you might start to get a few choices for a train overlapping the choices to drive. Then you'd get planes and trains taking a strong lead over cars, and eventually you'd get only planes with maybe a few boats. Generally the boats would fit in at various distances depending on the nature of the target location. But here's the thing ... these obviously aren't the only logically possible ways of getting from one place to another. An obvious alternate choice of transportation that we haven't included yet is a bicycle. And for good measure we could throw in a motorcycle. But this still doesn't exhaust our logically possible options for how a person might move from one place to another. Here are a few other logically possible modes of transportation: unneeded wheelchair, horse, skateboard, unicycle, pogo stick, tricycle, walking on hands, crawling, lying flat and rolling, somersaulting, doing flips, skipping with a skipping rope, skipping without a rope, twirling, rolling inside a big ball, walking on stilts, taking one step back for every two steps forward, heading in the opposite direction of the target for a set distance before turning around and heading towards it, riding in a chariot, being carried in some enclosure by other people, and the list goes on. If we were to survey the same random 100 adults, how many of these would be likely to come up even once, regardless of what distance we choose for the target location? How many of the 100 people would we expect to say they'd use a wheelchair for any distance if they weren't actually confined to a wheelchair? We might get someone choosing a skateboard for short distances, and maybe we'd luck out and get someone who says they'd like to use a horse if the opportunity presented itself, but what are the chances that any of the 100 would, unprompted, come up with a unicycle as the method of travel they'd use, or a tricycle, or stilts, or a pogo stick, or somersaulting, etc.? There is a near 0 probability that any of these modes of travel would come up a single time in a survey of 100 random adults. Expanding the survey to 1,000 or 10,000 or 100,000 is unlikely to change the numbers or ratios much; the vast majority of these options would come up very few or zero times. Now, suppose we were to postulate the existence of an unknown traveler who is going to travel from specified location A to unknown specified location B, where all we know about B is that it is 300 KMs from A. Suppose further that the list of modes of transportation we've listed so far exhaust all logically possible options, giving us a total of 27 logically possible options for ways of traveling between A and B. If we attempt to use the principle of indifference in determing the probability of any given mode of transportation being used by the unknown traveler, such that each mode is assigned a probability of 0.037 (or 1/27), then we are saying it is just as likely that a randomly selected traveler will choose to make the trip walking on his hands as in a car, and it is just as likely that a randomly selected traveler will lie flat and roll to the location as it is that he will take a train there. In other words, we're saying that if we randomly select a person to make the trip in question, it is just as plausible to think that person might choose to get to the location by bouncing on a pogo stick as it is to think he might choose to get there by plane. In still other words, we're being complete idiots. The only way it would be possible to sensibly use the principle of indifference to assign equal probabilities to the 27 modes of transportation in terms of their individual probability of being found in the randomly selected traveler is if we preselected and prefiltered the pool of people we were making the selection from, such that we somehow managed to find one person who claimed to prefer each of the 27 logically possible modes of transporation and thus ensured that each mode was equally represented in our pool. And if we wanted the probabilities to hold in terms of the method that the randomly selected traveler would actually use to make the trip from A to B, we would need to ensure that each person would commit to using their claimed prefered mode of transportation regardless of the distance or nature of the terrain between the two points. Of course, if we were to set up the scenario in this way, it would be nothing more than an agenda-driven attempt to absurdly skew the probability distribution and arrive at a desired conclusion that bears no connection to reality. In other words, if were were do this, we would be doing what you are doing in your argument, whether by error or by deceipt. This is why you can't sensibly apply the principle of indifference in assigning equal probabilities to the logically possible ways an intelligent person might approach solving a problem or achieving a goal. First, no random survey of persons with even average intelligence, regardless of sample size, will produce anything even remotely resembling a uniform distribution of preference across the entire spectrum of logically possible approaches to solving a problem, such that a randomly selected person from the sample is just as likely to favor one logically possible approach as any other. Rather, what such a random survey would turn up is a very small subset of the logically possible approaches, which would come up again and again, while the vast majority of logically possible approaches would never be prefered or advocated at all. And the more intelligent the members in the sample group were and the more skilled they were in the relevent subject, the smaller the consistent subset would typically become, due to their experience and recognition of pitfalls in other seemingly sound approaches that less experienced persons might not be aware of. Second, The problem or goal to which these logically possible approaches would relate provides us with precisely the kind of additional information that allows us to differentiate between the logical possibilities with something more than just a label, which invalidates the principle of indifference, as we would in fact have sufficient reason to limit the full array of logically possible approaches to a small subset that would be much more likely to be used. So now we come directly to a few of the innumerable problems with your argument. First of all, you have changed "the intelligent designer" into an empty label, making it a nondescript role requiring no particular qualities or qualifications. Then, you've proceeded to postulate an astronomical number of individual persons, each of whom for some reason has an arbitrary preference, formed in a vaccuum, which just happens to correspond to one of the "trillions" of logically possible ways to approach the goal of designing and bringing into being a diverse world of life. You then propose to randomly slot one of these persons into the role of "the designer", with his or her correponding arbitrary preference for a logically possible approach to creating a diverse world of life, and who is not permitted to change their preference for an objectively better approach if one exists. Finally, you point at whichever person was randomly selected to fill the role of designer and announce that there is only a one-in-trillions chance that this person just happens to be the one who had the arbitrary preference to produce a diverse world of life that could be categorized in an ONH. It's hard to imagine a less serious or less reasonable approach to the subject matter. If we translate the gist of the above scenario into one where the role of "the intelligent designer" is filled by a single being whom you say 'we know absolutely nothing about', we find that this being is denied any specific attributes, including general intelligence and the inclination to act like a designer (designers make purposeful contextual choices), making the label of "intelligent designer" utterly meaningless. After all, in order to maintain consistency with the above scenario and preserve the equal probability distribution across all logically possible approaches, this being must be assumed to operate entirely on the basis of utterly unpredictable, arbitrary preference rather than on reasoned deliberation. In other words, it posits a designer entirely unlike the one posited by ID proponents, being neither intelligent, nor acting like a designer. In harmony with the foregoing, this being must be considered to be indifferent with respect to whether his approach to achieving a goal is wise or unwise, efficient or inefficient, practical or impractical, productive or counter-productive, etc.. To say that in the absence of further information there is an equal probability that the intelligent designer would happen to prefer any of a limited array of equally sensible best approaches to achieving a goal is not to say that the designer is indifferent to the approach he takes (i.e. doesn't have a preference). Rather, it is simply to say that, based on the information we currently have available to us, the array of equally sensible best approaches are "indifferent" (i.e. indistiguishable from each other) with regard to their probability of being preferred by the specific intelligent designer in question. In other words, the desired goal has given us sufficient information to narrow the original array of logically possible options to the subset we have now, but not enough information to narrow the subset further. However, to say that it is equally probable that the intelligent designer would prefer an approach that is unwise, inefficient, impractical and counter-productive (which describes the overwhelming majority of all purely logically possible approaches to achieving a goal or solving a problem) as it is that he would prefer one that is wise, efficient, practical and productive, is to say that the designer is indifferent to (i.e. does not care about) the quality of his approach to achieving the goal, even if he does happen to care about (i.e. have a preference for) using a particular approach. In other words, this is again a being entirely unlike the intelligent designer inferred by ID. One, in fact, who hardly conforms to any recognizeable definition of an intelligent being or a designer. Second, if instead of making the "trillions" the logically possible approaches to achieving the goal of creating a diverse world of life you want to make the "trillions" apply to the possible patterns life might have been able to have been organized into after the fact, then there are at least four problems. 1) The "trillions" are nothing more than rhetorical hyperbole. As I said before:
Trillions of logically possible tasks or steps, even if they really existed, are not the same as trillions of logically possible discernible patterns, so in this respect we might expect life would take the form of one pattern (or possibly a few) out of a much smaller [than trillions] array of feasible [discernable] patterns, or else that it would simply look like a random jumble with no pattern at all, which would be unexpected on an hypothesis of design
2) Most of the feasible discernable patterns into which life might have been able to have been organized under different circumstances would have required the direct instantiation of most (if not all) organismal populations in their final forms, or, at best, would have required a method of distributing traits completely separate from any form of inheritance through branching descent, whether continuous, continguous or some combination of the two. 3) You do not seem to have considered the possibility that there could be a functional purpose to organizing life as a general ONH. While humans do not typically produce strict objective nested hierarchies, humans do intentionally produce nested hierarchies in certain situations. And I don't just mean that they just happen to produce things that can be placed into some kind of entirely subjective nested hierarchical structure after the fact. As it happens, some of the humans who do this most often are software designers and programmers. For example, when I start a new complex programming project, I plan out the functionality as a nested hierarchy to help me identify what needs to be done and how it can be organized most efficiently. I start with the most abstracted forms of functionality I can think of for each domain of function, then I determine what more specific forms of functionality will be required within the domain, then I plan out the individual functions I will write for each aspect of functionality within the domain. I then determine where they overlap and abstract the overlapping functionality into a supporting function that can be called by several others. When I've done this as much as possible and created several of such supporting functions, each called by multiple other functions, I then identify where these supporting functions overlap and then abstract that functionality as well, so that my supporting functions have their own supporting functions. As I'm actually programming, more opportunities to do this jump out at me and I continue to adjust my code to conform to a nested hierarchy of function to minimize duplication of code or function. The degree to which I'm able to do this depends to some degree on the nature of the project, but it is far more dependent on the precision of my planning and my degree of commitment (i.e. my lack of laziness). What is interesting, though, is that I routinely strive for this kind of structural organization, not because I happen to have any particular preference or love for generating nested hierarchies, but just because it is the cleanest, most efficient way to write and organize code for a large project. On a different note, I gave another example in the other thread of how I used a nested hierarchy when working with an associate to help us determine the full range of services a company could offer in different domains of service that the company wanted to deal in. We started with the broad domains themselves, then determined main branches under each domain, then used each new level we set out to help suggest further services that could fall under it so that we could maximize the diversity of the service offerings available from each branch, and each division within each branch, and each group within each division. In other words, two scenarios in which humans are most likely to use nested hierarchies to guide a production process is in making the most efficient use of necessary common functionality, like in writing code for a complex programming project, or in helping to ensure an organized saturation of diversity. So if there was one situation in which you would be most likely to find objective nested hierarchies, it would just happen to be in the organization of code for different domains of function in a complex programming project written by a very intelligent, precise and disciplined programmer. The only thing that would make it more likely is if part of the intent of the programmer was to ensure a maximum diversity of function. Knowing how I work, what I strive for, and why, the idea that life could be organized into objective nested hierarchies by an intelligent designer is not nearly as unusual to me as it apparently is to you. But then, we evidently have very different ideas for what would constitute an "intelligent designer". Meanwhile, I have less personal understanding for what functional purpose might be achieved by alternate non-nested patterns that would be relevant to the project of life. 4) You are continuing to focus on the probability that the designer would directly instantiate the structural pattern of an ONH rather than on the probability that the designer would choose to distribute traits and innovations through some form of differential branching descent, which would generate an ONH as a byproduct. And third, if you want to make the "trillions" the combinatorial possibilities for how cladograms could be drawn for the taxa, you again find yourself in a position where only a tiny fraction of those would constitute discernible patterns while most would simply be an incoherent jumble - which, as I've said, would not be expected on a design hypothesis - and would either have required the direct instantiation of most (or all) organismal populations in their final forms, or, at best, would have required a method of distributing traits completely separate from any form of inheritance through branching descent, whether continuous, continguous or some combination of the two. I might as well stop here for now. I'll address your incorrect claim that I've employed circular logic separately, perhaps later today. HeKS
Me_Think #481:
Since the probability distribution for the designer’s methods is unknown, Bernoulli’s Principle of Insufficient reason (Dembski and Robert Mark invoke this in their fitness landscape argument and Law of Conservation of Information) can be invoked. Hence every choice is equi-probable. What’s wrong with that ?
Let me just add, in case anyone is unaware of it, that the "principle of insufficient reason" is just another name for the "principle of indifference". keith s
Me_Think, to Box:
Do you understand equal probabilities ? If a designer prefers something, it is not equi-probable !
Me_Think, Box's confusion actually runs the other way. He thinks that if the probabilities are equal, then the designer doesn't prefer one thing over another. What he doesn't (or won't) realize is that "the designer" is a role, and that there are thousands of distinct candidates for that designer role, each with different characteristics, just as there are two candidates (Bob and Betty) for the perpetrator role in my example, each with different preferences regarding the mode of travel. When we say that the probabilities are equal in the Bob/Betty case, we are not saying that Bob and Betty are indifferent to the mode of travel. When we say that the probabilities are equal in the ID case, we are not saying that the designer is indifferent to the choice of pattern. I'm not sure why Box is having such trouble with this. keith s
Butting in again because I couldn't help it
This means that the designer does not prefer pattern 4,920,664 over pattern 305,057,718,399 or vice versa. The fact that the probabilities are equal does entail that the designer does not prefer one pattern over the other
Box, Do you understand equal probabilities ? If a designer prefers something over other, it is not equi-probable . You will have a different probability ratio ! Me_Think
Keith #480
Keith: 2b. The probability that the designer prefers (or is limited to) pattern 4,920,664 is tiny and equal to the probability that the designer prefers (or is limited to) pattern 305,057,718,399 or any of the other patterns.
This means that the designer does not prefer pattern 4,920,664 over pattern 305,057,718,399 or vice versa.
Keith: 3b. The fact that the probabilities are equal does not mean that the designer is indifferent to the pattern chosen.
Here you go wrong again. The fact that the probabilities are equal does entail that the designer does not prefer one pattern over the other. So it does mean that the designer is indeed indifferent (or neutral) towards the patterns. Box
Box @ 479,
However, your Bob/Betty scenario is ill-matched for reasons already provided. Reasons which you have not yet addressed. In short: the designer is not Bob and Betty nor John and Mildred. Or do you wish to argue for multiple designers
Let me butt in. ID won't tell if there is a single or multiple designers, ID won't even hazard a guess on capabilities of designer, so it is logical to work with the assumption that a designer who has to oversee trillions of processes has the capability to create using one of his innumerable methods. Since the probability distribution for the designer's methods is unknown, Bernoulli’s Principle of Insufficient reason (Dembski and Robert Mark invoke this in their fitness landscape argument and Law of Conservation of Information) can be invoked. Hence every choice is equi-probable. What's wrong with that ? Me_Think
Box, Well, there could be multiple designers, though I'm afraid that possibility is going to confuse you even more than before, so let's keep it simple by assuming at most one designer for now. Then:
1a. There is one perpetrator, who could be Bob or Betty, but not both. 1b. There is one designer, who could any of a myriad of hypothetical designer candidates, but not all of them. 2a. The probability is 50% that the perpetrator prefers trains to planes, and 50% that the perpetrator prefers planes to trains. 2b. The probability that the designer prefers (or is limited to) pattern 4,920,664 is tiny and equal to the probability that the designer prefers (or is limited to) pattern 305,057,718,399 or any of the other patterns. 3a. The fact that the probabilities are equal does not mean that the perpetrator is indifferent to the mode of travel. 3b. The fact that the probabilities are equal does not mean that the designer is indifferent to the pattern chosen.
Box, please pause and think about this instead of dashing off another hasty and ill-considered response. keith s
Keith #476,
Keith: Do you seriously not understand that the following statement is true in the Bob/Betty scenario? There is a 50% chance that the perpetrator prefers traveling by train, and a 50% chance that the perpetrator prefers traveling by plane.
Keith, I understand that your statement is true. There are of course equal probabilities scenarios and indeed yours is one of them. However, your Bob/Betty scenario is ill-matched for reasons already provided. Reasons which you have not yet addressed. In short: the designer is not Bob and Betty nor John and Mildred. Or do you wish to argue for multiple designers? :) Box
William J Murray follows StephenB and HeKS into the Rain Fairy trap:
Keith is claiming that HeKS is making a circular argument apparently because he is using the evidence in question in order to draw some provisional conclusions about the hypothetical designer of said evidence if we assume the designer did, in fact, generate the design where the evidence comes from.
Apart from the painfulness of his prose style, William's error is obvious. His passage can be restated in terms of the Rain Fairy:
Keith is claiming that HeKS is making a circular argument apparently because he is using the evidence in question in order to draw some provisional conclusions about the hypothetical Rain Fairy responsible for said weather if we assume the Rain Fairy did, in fact, generate the weather where the evidence comes from.
It must be crowded down there in the Rain Fairy trap. Sorry, guys. I would have made it larger if I'd known how many of you were going to fall in. keith s
HeKS, Enough with the trailers. Show us the movie. This is ridiculous: HeKS #393:
I’ll address that specific example in a few hours. I’m a little busy at the moment.
HeKS #402:
Here I am working up a response to Keith to explain to him why his Bob and Betty analogy is not analogous at all...
HeKS #421:
Regarding your Bob and Betty example, I’m working on my response as I have time between other things. I’ll try to finish tonight but it might not get posted until some time this weekend.
HeKS #437:
You’re right, of course, that it doesn’t deserve any more attention than that, but I’m giving it more attention anyway. I just haven’t had a chance to finish yet.
HeKS #448:
I’m currently writing something up to address his Bob and Betty example.
HeKS #449:
As for your questions, I imagine they will largely be addressed in the response I’m writing up to the example.
HeKS #465:
Not to mention that you have cast the comment in light of your Bob and Betty example, which first popped up in #334 and which I’m in the process of addressing now in another comment I’m writing.
HeKS #473:
I’ll address what it is when I post my response to his Bob and Betty example later tonight.
If you'd spent half as much time writing your comment as you have writing about it, you'd have been done last night. Just make your points and post your comment. I'll respond, and you can elaborate later if you need to. keith s
Box, Do you seriously not understand that the following statement is true in the Bob/Betty scenario?
There is a 50% chance that the perpetrator prefers traveling by train, and a 50% chance that the perpetrator prefers traveling by plane.
I'm sorry, but I don't see how to make my example any simpler than it already is. It may just be beyond your grasp. keith s
Keith #474, you have just proved that your example is ill-matched. I fully agree that it is. The problem with your example is obvious. There is no actual perpetrator who is both Bob and Betty. Similarly there is no designer who is two persons; at least at this point I see no support for this assumption :) However if there would be a perpetrator who is equally likely to travel by train or plane, then one could say that he is specifically indifferent about traveling by train or plane. Are you okay with that Keith? edited: I'm also fine with "neutral" - instead of "indifferent". Box
Box:
If the designer is equally likely to choose for any kind of ordering of life, then the designer is specifically indifferent about the ordering of life. Are you okay with this Keith?
Let's apply your logic to Bob and Betty:
If the perpetrator is equally likely to prefer trains as planes, then the perpetrator is specifically indifferent about the mode of transportation. Are you okay with this Box?
Box, If you find your logic leading from sensible premises to an absurd conclusion, there is something wrong with your logic. keith s
@Box #471, It's not the ordering of life that Keith's argument necessarily implies the designer to be indifferent about. I'll address what it is when I post my response to his Bob and Betty example later tonight. HeKS
Keith, What's funny is your inability to see the difference between what I have said and your Rain Fairy parodies. In your incorrect 3-step restatement of my argument, you got both 1 and 3 wrong. HeKS
Keith, If the designer is equally likely to choose for any kind of ordering of life, then the designer is specifically indifferent about the ordering of life. Are you okay with this Keith? Box
Meanwhile, StephenB and William J Murray (along with HeKS) fall straight into the Rain Fairy trap. First StephenB:
HeKS “As such, one can make limited but warranted plausible inferences about a designer on the basis of their designs. And, given those inferences, one can also consider whether certain approaches can be more or less plausibly attributed to an agent with the characteristics that the designer is inferred to have on the basis of their designs” HeKS is correct. The key passage here is “on the basis of their designs,” which is derived from empirical observations. No circularity.
Oh, really? Here is HeKS's passage in terms of the Rain Fairy:
As such, one can make limited but warranted plausible inferences about the Rain Fairy on the basis of the weather she has produced. And, given those inferences, one can also consider whether certain approaches can be more or less plausibly attributed to an agent with the characteristics that the Rain Fairy is inferred to have on the basis of the weather she has produced.
StephenB quotes HeKS again:
“It also fails to take into account the ability to infer that certain characteristics are present in a designer based on an analysis of the things they are believed to have designed, and that this information can then be used in weighing the general likelihood that they might have produced other kinds of designs or used other kinds of design approaches.” That is correct. If the designer shows signs of unusual creative ability, it follows that the designer may be capable of achieving the same result in different ways. No circularity.
And again, HeKS's passage can be rewritten in terms of the Rain Fairy:
It also fails to take into account the ability to infer that certain characteristics are present in the Rain Fairy based on an analysis of the weather she is believed to have produced, and that this information can then be used in weighing the general likelihood that she might have produced other kinds of weather or used other kinds of weather-generating approaches.
Those passages become quite comical when the Rain Fairy is substituted for the designer, don't they? Yet the logic is the same. Here are the remaining passages, all of which have been modified to refer to the Rain Fairy.
…it makes perfect sense to me that the Rain Fairy would use some form of convection to achieve the multiple goals I mentioned, since it would fit right in with the weather style I perceive the Rain Fairy to be using in the systems that directly lead me to make a Rain Fairy inference in the first place.
And:
If we perform the same exercise after factoring in the problem/goal in question and the characteristics we can reasonably infer from the systems that triggered our Rain Fairy inference in the first place…
The take-home lesson: If your pro-ID argument works equally well in defense of the Rain Fairy, you have a bad argument. keith s
Box #466, I've already explained this. It might be good for you to go back and reread my earlier comments. When we talk about "the perpetrator" in the Bob/Betty example, we are talking about a role that might be filled by Bob, or it might be filled by Betty. The fact that we assign equal probabilities to "by train" and "by plane" does not mean that we think the perpetrator is indifferent. It just means that we don't yet know who fills the role of the perpetrator. Since the evidence points equally to Bob and Betty, we say there's a 50% chance that the perpetrator prefers traveling by train, and 50% by plane. Equal probabilities do not signal indifference. Likewise, when we talk about "the designer", we are talking about a role that might be filled by many different hypothetical entities. The fact that we assign equal probabilities to all of the possibilities does not mean that we think the designer is indifferent. It just means that we don't know which entity fills the role of the designer. (Note to philosophically minded readers: this is the de re/de dicto distinction.) keith s
Keith, The only part I was wrong about was what I thought that you thought you were assuming. I wasn't wrong about what you are assuming, because I didn't mean that your argument assumes the designer is indifferent in ad absolute sense, but in a specific sense that is necessarily implied by your argument. HeKS
HeKS:
Yes, and that was taken from comment #283, before my very long post in which I addressed this issue more directly.
Take responsibility for your comments, HeKS. You made the claim, and the claim was incorrect. Your claims are your responsibility. keith s
Keith: As I’ve explained, I am not assuming indifference, so you and Box are both wrong about that.
Keith, If one assigns equal probabilities to each option available to the designer, does one not necassaraly assume that it is equally likely that the designer chooses any one of them? Now, the mental state that makes it equally likely that a free agent chooses any one of several options is what I call "indifference". Why do you have a problem with that? Box
Keith, Yes, and that was taken from comment #283, before my very long post in which I addressed this issue more directly. Not to mention that you have cast the comment in light of your Bob and Betty example, which first popped up in #334 and which I'm in the process of addressing now in another comment I'm writing. Also, what Box said is right, it's just that the implied indifference is not absolute. But I'm addressing all this in my other comment. HeKS
HeKS, You left out your next sentence:
I very much agree with you. If there’s any point where there might be room to quibble it’s in saying that Keith’s assumption is that the designer is “indifferent about the ordering of life”. That may be exactly right, and basically is exactly what Keith is assuming – or at least thinks he’s assuming – in his argument. [Emphasis added]
As I've explained, I am not assuming indifference, so you and Box are both wrong about that. keith s
What should we do with people like keith s...? It is difficult to ignore his unsubstantiated rant... What should we do since he is not unswerving the fundamental questions to his faith...? Quest
What should we do with people like keith s...? It is difficult to ignore his unsubstantiated rant... What should we do since he is not unswerving the fundamental questions to his faith...? Quest
Keith, I don't completely agree with #2 in Box's statement, which is why my original comment said:
I very much agree with you. If there’s any point where there might be room to quibble it’s in saying that Keith’s assumption is that the designer is “indifferent about the ordering of life”.
Given your Bob and Betty example, I better understand what you think you're saying on this point and why you mistakenly think it makes sense, but Box is still not completely wrong on his #2 either and has clued in on something you evidently don't see, which makes him at least more right than you are. HeKS
Box #444, regarding #428:
First, that does not mean that we can model what the driver is going to do by the role of a die... Now the question to you is: on what basis can we assign equal probabilities – and think that this accurately describes reality?
We can't, and I've already explained why:
In your example, we have tons of prior knowledge. We know what cars are, and what they’re for. We know that they are generally reliable. We know that they tend to remain on the road rather than veering off randomly into front yards and ditches. We know that humans drive them, and that they are a means of transportation. We have an enormous amount of background knowledge about humans and their characteristics. And so on. All of this prior information shapes the probabilities we assign to the various possibilities. In the case of biological ID, what prior information do we have about the designer? None whatsoever.
If you think that there is relevant prior information that will allow you to assign probabilities unequally to the trillions of possible design patterns, then tell us what that information is, where you got it, what the modified probabilities should be, and why. That challenge applies to HeKS, also. keith s
vividbleau:
But in Keiths example there is only ONE perpetrator which is either Bob or Betty! There is not a 50% chance that if Bob is the perpetrator he will take either a train or a plane. If Betty is the perpetrator there is not a 50% chance that she will take either a plane or a train. What am I missing?
Box:
There is a 50% chance that perpetrator is Bob and a 50% chance that she is Betty. If Bob, then 100% train.
Exactly. Neither potential perpetrator is indifferent. So when we say that there's a 50% probability that the perpetrator prefers trains, and a 50% probability that the perpetrator prefers planes, we are not saying that the perpetrator is indifferent. Likewise, there are many potential designers. When we say there was a tiny probability for the designer to have chosen pattern 4,920,664, and an equally tiny probability for the designer to have chosen pattern 305,057,718,399, we are not saying that the designer was indifferent. I don't know how to make it any more obvious. Please think about it. keith s
IDers, It's amazing to me that I actually need to spell this out for you guys, but here goes: My "Bob and Betty" example is not intended as a complete analogy for the ID question. Its purpose is to illustrate the particular mistake Box and HeKS are making about the supposedly "indifferent" designer. Equal probabilities do not signal indifference. In the Bob/Betty example, the probability that the perpetrator prefers trains is 50%. The probability that the perpetrator prefers planes is 50%. Does that mean that the perpetrator is indifferent to the choice? Obviously not. So when Box says...
Keith has to make the following unsupported assumptions: 1. There are a trillion options available for the designer. 2. The designer is completely indifferent about the ordering of life. Indifference implies that the designer has no reason at all to favor one option over others. IOW Keith has to add more unsupported assumptions, and in effect strip a free agent of his ‘personhood’ – choice, reason, preference -, in order to equate a free agent to a random process like the role of a die.
...and HeKS says...
I very much agree with you.
...they are making the same silly mistake as someone who claims that the perpetrator is indifferent in the Bob/Betty example. I repeat: Equal probabilities do not signal indifference. keith s
I appreciate well-written sentences, probably due to my constant struggle with words because I'm not a native English speaker. Once in a while I spot a sentence which I try to memorize and say out loud. Two examples:
StephenB: There seems to be an inverse relationship between KeithS’s intellectual confidence and his capacity to follow a rational argument.
Phinehas: Your internal narrative and its continued disconnect with reality is duly noted.
Both are pure poetry to me, but what do I know? Box
Box
But let us not get caught up in Keith’s shell game The main issue here is the question if Keith’s example is germane or not. It’s NOT.
Ahhh that was what I was attempting to point out with my shell game observation. Vivid vividbleau
Wjm: the imagined choices available to an intelligent, causal agency embarking on the task of generating a planetary system of living organisms. Nothing could be more absurd on the face of it. Even if we don’t know the actual possibilities, one must hold that some possible choices would undermine the effort and others would progress the effort. They cannot be assumed to be equal probabilities for an intelligent designer, How can one know what undermines or progresses the effort without any actual knowledge of the imagined goals and imagined abilities of an imagined designer? velikovskys
@StephenB #453 Yes, it's crazy how much like the Black Knight scenario this really is. But if anything, Keith is even worse. His arms and legs have been lopped off, but he doesn't even think he's received a "flesh wound". Instead, he thinks I've stabbed myself in the heart. It's really rather mind-boggling. It's exactly as you said: "I really don’t understand how he hopes to refute arguments that he cannot even follow." HeKS
Keiths to HeKS,
The circularity is right there in your own words. You can’t argue that I’ve misinterpreted you, because you keep repeating it:
As I have explained many times, KeithS struggles with logic because he chooses to read his hopes and wishes into the comments (eisegesis) rather than to read out of them what the author intended (exegesis). So it is with all his misguided complaints about HeKS’s alleged “circular arguments.”KeithS cites the following examples: HeKS “As such, one can make limited but warranted plausible inferences about a designer on the basis of their designs. And, given those inferences, one can also consider whether certain approaches can be more or less plausibly attributed to an agent with the characteristics that the designer is inferred to have on the basis of their designs” HeKS is correct. The key passage here is "on the basis of their designs," which is derived from empirical observations. No circularity. “It also fails to take into account the ability to infer that certain characteristics are present in a designer based on an analysis of the things they are believed to have designed, and that this information can then be used in weighing the general likelihood that they might have produced other kinds of designs or used other kinds of design approaches.” That is correct. If the designer shows signs of unusual creative ability, it follows that the designer may be capable of achieving the same result in different ways. No circularity. “…it makes perfect sense to me that the designer would use some form of branching descent to achieve the multiple goals I mentioned, since it would fit right in with the design style I perceive the designer to be using in the systems that directly lead me to make a design inference in the first place.” Yes. Based on the apparent style of design, which is, in turn, based on empirical observation, branching descent can reasonably be posited as a plausible explanation. No circularity. “If we perform the same exercise after factoring in the problem/goal in question and the characteristics we can reasonably infer from the systems that triggered our design inference in the first place…” Correct. One can consider, speculate, or hypothesize about the method of design from the same source that established the probability of design. No circularity. Also, KeithS conspicuously leaves out the critical elements in the passage, which is the nature of the exercise that HeKS is referring to. One has to wonder about about that omission (eisegesis?) KeithS
How embarrassing, HeKS. Your argument founders on the freshman logic mistake of assuming your conclusion.
There seems to be an inverse relationship between KeithS’s intellectual confidence and his capacity to follow a rational argument. I really don't understand how he hopes to refute arguments that he cannot even follow. StephenB
Vividbleau, Keith's example has tons of prior information, as you perceptively point out, but he doesn't seem to be bothered by that at all. Talk about unequal weights and unequal measures.
VB: But there is only one perpetrator. There is not a 50% chance that if Bob is the perpetrator he will take either a train or a plane. If Betty is the perpetrator there is not a 50% chance that she will take either a plane or a train. What am I missing?
There is a 50% chance that perpetrator is Bob and a 50% chance that she is Betty. If Bob, then 100% train. But let us not get caught up in Keith's shell game :) Let's keep focus here! The main issue here is the question if Keith's example is germane or not. It's NOT. Let's not forget that Keith's example is supposed to be analogous to a designer of life who has many options available. In post #434 I ask Keith who, in his example, plays the role of this designer. I informed him that the best I can come up with is the "hypothetical criminal" who is either Bob or Betty. Keith didn't state otherwise, so I suppose he agrees. To my understanding a hypothetical criminal, "who" (?) has the "choice" (?) to be either Bob or Betty, is not analogous to a designer of life who makes choices - or any free agent who makes choices. IOW Keith's example doesn't make sense to me - at all. Box
As far as the bob and betty analogy, keith is conflating assigning a principle of indifference on something where the actual possibilities are not known to be weighted in any way with a conscious agency being indifferent about the choices they make. Keith has assigned a principle of indifference to the imagined choices available to an intelligent, causal agency embarking on the task of generating a planetary system of living organisms. Nothing could be more absurd on the face of it. Even if we don't know the actual possibilities, one must hold that some possible choices would undermine the effort and others would progress the effort. They cannot be assumed to be equal probabilities for an intelligent designer, as HeKS has argued so well. Even unknown, we cannot possibly, in all good faith, assume the possibilities are not weighted wrt their promoting or harming the success of the project. So, add that to another way Keith's argument has been rebutted: The PoI he employs to make his case is entirely inappropriate. It can only be employed where there is no known or assumed value distinctions between actual possibilities; keith doesn't know any of the actual possibilities, and we certainly cannot assume none of the possibilities would be no more likely employed than the other. William J Murray
This is rich. Keith is claiming that HeKS is making a circular argument apparently because he is using the evidence in question in order to draw some provisional conclusions about the hypothetical designer of said evidence if we assume the designer did, in fact, generate the design where the evidence comes from. I pointed out to keith before:
If you don’t assume gradual change or predominantly vertical [inheritance], then it doesn’t matter if the evolutionary process is guided or unguided; the resulting pattern will appear unrelated to the pattern in the first example.
Keith responded:
We observe slow mutation rates and predominantly vertical inheritance. We observe them producing microevolution and ONHs. Unless you’re going to resurrect your bizarre “but they might be guided!” argument, falling right back into the Rain Fairy trap, those are observed characteristics of unguided evolution.
What keith attempts to do here is reserve the right to use the actual evidence we find in microevolution only for the unguided side of the ledger. Note, his comment is the equivalent of saying: If we assume the evidence we have gathered thus far about life and microevolution was generated by unguided forces, then it tells us what we can expect from those unguided forces when it comes to macroevolution". However, when HeKS uses the same evidence to make inferences about the designer and what we might expect from a designer in terms of macroevolution, Keith calls it "circular reasoning". We've already gone over the Rain Fairy argument and have demonstrated why it is not valid. He's re-using it here to try to keep the design side from employing the same evidence he's using the same way he's using it for the non-design side. Keith says this about the designer:
Meanwhile, we know absolutely nothing about your purported designer. We don’t know whether he/she/it proceeds by slow mutation rates.
IF we have assumed that a designer is responsible for what we see, then if we see slow mutation rates, we know any designer assumed to have generated what we see proceeds by employing slow mutation rates - at least in the case of what we see.
We don’t know whether he/she/it sticks to a predominantly vertical inheritance scheme. All possibilities remain open.
No, they don't, by Keith's reasoning, because that's not what we see. If you require the design side to account for what could have happened but did not, you must also account on the non-design side for what natural forces could have done but did not. You can't use the evidence and say "unguided does it this way because this is what we see" and then reject the explanation "designer does it this way because this is what we see."
The hypothesis of unguided evolution is that the process that powers unguided microevolution — via slow mutations, natural selection, and drift — also powers macroevolution. So of course I take advantage of our observations of microevolution! Why wouldn’t I?
Why shouldn't the design side use the same evidence? If you're going to demand the design side account for what could have happened but did not, why don't you have to account for it? "Because it happened the way we see it" is not an answer; it dodges the question.
If my hypothesis is that macroevolution is just microevolution writ large, then by necessity the drivers of the two processes must be the same. That means a slow mutation rate with predominantly vertical inheritance, shaped by selection and drift.
If my hypothesis is that macro-design is just micro-design writ large, then by necessity the design principles and engineering developmental process must be the same.
Meanwhile, you cannot make the same assumptions about the designer, because as you admit, you know nothing about him/her/it.
Where did I admit this? As far as I know, the only thing I've done wrt knowing anything about a designer is assume your position arguendo in order to show your implicit assumptions. If you're going to allow yourself the right to use the evidence under debate as evidence to support the hypothetical unguided side of the debate, you must allow it to be used to support the hypothetical guided side. William J Murray
@vividbleau #447, You've clued in on some of the issues with Keith's example. As for your questions, I imagine they will largely be addressed in the response I'm writing up to the example. If any questions remain unanswered after that then we can discuss them further. HeKS
Box, Indeed, he does. I'm currently writing something up to address his Bob and Betty example. I thought it would be short, since there's one truly glaring problem with the example that make it obviously irrelevant. But knowing Keith, I decided to expand a little and I've decided to point out the multiple layers of error in reasoning that lead him to mistakenly think that his Bob and Betty example is in any way relevant to the current debate. It's really rather crazy that this needs to be done, but Keith does provide a wealth of opportunity to provide instructive examples to casual readers of what happens when you don't put serious thought into the logic of your argument and its defenses before you run around claiming it's irrefutable and so powerful as to make the contrary position "irrational". HeKS
Heks and Box Obviously I am bored. There is no argument you can give that will convince Keith he is wrong about anything nor will I. However for the sake of any onlookers that still may be following this conversation I would like to point out to you and them some perplexing questions and observations regarding Keiths example re Bob and Betty Since the both of you have engaged Keiths and are most familiar with his argument I have a question for the both of you. It is my understanding that Keith asserts that there is absolutely nothing we know about the designer.Is this correct? If I am correct about this can either one of you know why he would use an example to bolster his argument of indifference by using an example that is chock full of background knowledge? Box Keiths takes you to task in 433
In your example, we have tons of prior knowledge.
Box does not Keiths example have tons of prior information? We have a detective ( in this case it is Keiths). We have evidence discovered by Keiths, enough evidence to narrow the suspects down from the population as a whole to two people yet he criticizes your example because your example contains prior knowledge. Do you find this strange? This question is for the both of you. Does it appear to either one of you that Keiths is doing a shell game? First he says based on tons of prior information that there is a 50% chance that Bob committed the crime and a 50% chance that Betty did. He then goes on to conclude that therefore there is a 50% chance that the PERPERTRATOR ( singular) will either take a plane or a train. But in Keiths example there is only ONE perpetrator which is either Bob or Betty! There is not a 50% chance that if Bob is the perpetrator he will take either a train or a plane. If Betty is the perpetrator there is not a 50% chance that she will take either a plane or a train. What am I missing? Thanks Vivid vividbleau
HeKS #445, My summary of your argument falls short, I fully agree. It was my aim to make clear to Keith that he uses unequal weights and unequal measures. Box
@Box #444
HeKS has eloquently argued that we have general knowledge about designers, the methods they choose and that can make better supported assumptions based on that, but you have swept all his efforts aside and even mocked him with your rain fairy gibberish.
Also, don't forget that the "target" (the problem / goal / project being undertaken) provides information to differentiate between logically possible approaches and determine which approaches are better than others and which are not good at all, even without considering potential personal preferences that might be held by a randomly selected agent. Even just assuming average intelligence on the part of the putative agent / designer will eliminate a whole swath of logically possible approaches from plausible consideration. HeKS
Keith, // about my example in #428 // First I regard my example as superfluous. It should be clear what I mean by 'assuming indifference' from the following lines:
Box: Is it obvious that when one assigns equal probabilities – and holds that this is an accurate description of reality – that one is in effect assuming “indifference”. Similarly, in terms of a die, one is assuming a “fair” (indifferent) die.
You did not address that part. What is unclear about it? About my example in #428
Keith: In your example, we have tons of prior knowledge. We know what cars are, and what they’re for. We know that they are generally reliable. We know that they tend to remain on the road rather than veering off randomly into front yards and ditches. We know that humans drive them, and that they are a means of transportation. We have an enormous amount of background knowledge about humans and their characteristics. And so on.
First, that does not mean that we can model what the driver is going to do by the role of a die. Let's say there are 6 possibilities: the driver of the car chooses the junction, or stops to check his car, or continues on the highway, or turns his car around, or stops for a chat with us, or parks his car near the house on the other side of the highway. Let's say those are the only (6) possibilities. Now the question to you is: on what basis can we assign equal probabilities - and think that this accurately describes reality? What if the house on the other side of the highway is where he lives?
Keith: All of this prior information shapes the probabilities we assign to the various possibilities. In the case of biological ID, what prior information do we have about the designer? None whatsoever.
You argue that we do know about the general reliability of cars and made that into an objection against my argument. I'm hardly impressed but I try to accommodate your objection. HeKS has eloquently argued that we have general knowledge about designers, the methods they choose and that can make better supported assumptions based on that, but you have swept all his efforts aside and even mocked him with your rain fairy gibberish. That is not the way to make progress in a discussion. - //Keith about his own example: //
You don’t think choosing to travel by train is a choice made by a free agent?
Yes I do think so. However Bob is not analogous to the designer, right? So that actually is a very weird question you ask me. Box
Keith,
Don’t “forget” to address the rampant circularity in your reasoning that I pointed out in #420.
You must mean that I shouldn't forget to address my reasoning that you wildly mistook for circularity because you don't seem to understand the nature of either your argument or mine. Don't worry, I'll eventually get to that. HeKS
HeKS #439, I would prefer that you not delete Vishnu's comments. Let them stand as a testament to his character. keith s
Vishnu, HeKS is correct @ 439. Do not do that again or you will be shown the door. Barry Arrington
HeKS, Don't "forget" to address the rampant circularity in your reasoning that I pointed out in #420. keith s
On a completely different note. I come back to check on this thread and notice a weird discussion about homosexuals and sex with children. This is probably the only time I'm ever going to say this about anything, but I agree with Keith and Alicia that I don't see those kinds of questions as appropriate in this setting, nor do I see the relevance of them. I have also only just this moment realized that I have the ability to edit comments in this thread, but in light of the fact that some discussion has ensued over Vishnu's comments, I don't know whether it would be appropriate for me to now edit those questions out, since it seems I'd also then have to remove the other references to them. HeKS
Box, You don't think choosing to travel by train is a choice made by a free agent? keith s
@Box #434
I hope this short analysis is enough for you to reconsider your example, because I do not think it deserves more attention than I already gave it.
You're right, of course, that it doesn't deserve any more attention than that, but I'm giving it more attention anyway. I just haven't had a chance to finish yet. HeKS
Box, It is extremely bad form to change your comments after posting them. Fixing typos is okay, but changing content is not. If you want to add a point, leave the original comment unchanged and add the new point after typing ETA ("edited to add") first, so that readers are aware of the addition. keith s
Keith, you did not address my example #428.
Yes, I did. keith s
Keith, The analogy of the designer and his alleged trillion of options should be obvious in my example. It is less obvious in yours.
Keith: You have carefully avoided addressing that example, Box. Why is that?
I briefly addressed your example in #336 and I was hoping it would suffice, because your example is embarrassingly off the mark. But okay, since you insist. Who plays the role of the designer in your example? I suppose it is the hypothetical criminal who is either Bob or Betty. What are the choices that the hypothetical criminal (designer) can make? To be either Bob or Betty and in effect to like traveling by train or by airplane?? I don't think anyone would think that this is analogous to a free agent making choices. I hope this short analysis is enough for you to reconsider your example, because I do not think it deserves more attention than I already gave it. - - p.s. It seems to be the case that I'm the only person who is still willing to respond to you. I cannot blame others for giving up on you. Don't push me over the edge also. Box
After avoiding my example, Box tries one of his own:
Suppose we are standing near a highway junction. Now we see a car approaching the junction. Their are several possibilities: either the driver of the car chooses the junction, or continues on the highway, or turns his car around, or stops for a chat with us, or his car breaks down, or … and so forth. Let’s say there are a trillion of possibilities. Now when we, while standing near the highway junction and watching the car approaching, conclude that all the imaginable possibilities are equally likely – and hold that this estimation is an accurate description of reality – we must assume that the driver of the car is somehow “indifferent” towards the options available to him. IOW that there is an absence of reasons or preferences in the driver which would wreck equal probabilities. IOW we put a trillion-sided die behind the steering wheel.
Box, In your example, we have tons of prior knowledge. We know what cars are, and what they're for. We know that they are generally reliable. We know that they tend to remain on the road rather than veering off randomly into front yards and ditches. We know that humans drive them, and that they are a means of transportation. We have an enormous amount of background knowledge about humans and their characteristics. And so on. All of this prior information shapes the probabilities we assign to the various possibilities. In the case of biological ID, what prior information do we have about the designer? None whatsoever. Please tell me that you can see the difference between the two scenarios. keith s
Box #428:
Is it obvious that when one assigns equal probabilities – and holds that this is an accurate description of reality – that one is in effect assuming “indifference”.
Not at all. In my "Bob and Betty" example, "prefers trains" and "prefers planes" have equal probability, but that decidedly does not mean that the perpetrator is indifferent to the means of transportation:
Box, Here’s an example to show why your “indifferent designer” claim is silly. Suppose I’m investigating a crime perpetrated by a lone individual. I narrow the suspects down to two, Bob and Betty, each of whom seems equally likely to have committed the crime, based on the evidence to date. Bob likes traveling by train, but Betty prefers flying. I can truthfully say “there’s a 50% chance that the perpetrator prefers flying, and a 50% chance that the perpetrator prefer traveling by train.” Does that mean that the perpetrator is indifferent to the mode of transportation? Obviously not. There’s also a 50% chance that the perpetrator is a man, and a 50% chance that the perpetrator is a woman. Does that mean that the perpetrator is a hermaphrodite? Obviously not. I hope (almost pray) that you can see the connection to our ongoing debate. The fact that the probabilities are equal does not mean I’m assuming that the designer is indifferent. William, HeKS, Similar arguments apply to the questions of whether the designer is omnipotent and whether or not he/she/it likes/is indifferent to/hates ONHs.
You have carefully avoided addressing that example, Box. Why is that? keith s
Vishnu:
Oh, and by the way, keiths, are you A) a homosexual, and B) do you believe adults have the right to have sex with children? Yes or no. And yes or no. Just curious. (Seriously.)
Alicia Renard:
I hesitated to respond to this as I expected the blog owner, a dedicated moderator, or (at the very least a regular commenter ot two) to take exception to the above. Apparent silence!
It's the second time Vishnu has pulled this crap. Here's the first:
I want to if keiths and adapa are homosexuals. Simple question
I ignored him both times, as I was very curious to see if anyone on the ID side would speak up. Not a word. IDers, what do you think of Vishnu's questions? keith s
Vishnu at #426
Oh, and by the way, keiths, are you A) a homosexual, and B) do you believe adults have the right to have sex with children? Yes or no. And yes or no. Just curious. (Seriously.)
I hesitated to respond to this as I expected the blog owner, a dedicated moderator, or (at the very least a regular commenter ot two) to take exception to the above. Apparent silence! I see Barry Arrington is not a homosexual and would make homosexuality illegal, given the opportunity as he has stated:
A man’s body is designed to be complementary with a woman’s body and vice versa. All of the confusion about whether same-sex relations are licit would be swept away in an instant if everyone acknowledged this obvious truth.
link but does he also support the demanding of denials of criminal activity or support for criminal acivity as some sort of prerequisite for commenting here? Would Vishnu like to confirm whether he is a homosexual and has predilections for sex with children, animals or inanimate objects? Would anyone else like to confirm their sexual orientation and level of criminal activity? Should we adopt the default position (popular in "Intelligent Design" arguments) that the absence of an evidenced denial allows us to assume homosexual criminal by default? Alicia Renard
Joe #394, #400
Joe quoting Denton #394: A quite different type of classification system is termed hierarchic. In which there are no overlapping or partially inclusive classes, but only classes inclusive or exclusive of other classes. Such schemes exhibit, therefore, an orderly “groups within groups” arrangement in which class boundaries are distinct and the divisions in the system increase in a systematic manner as the hierarchy is ascended. The absence of any overlapping classes implies the absence of any sort of natural sequential relationships among the objects grouped by such a scheme.” – Denton (bold added)
Joe, I'm trying to understand ONH. This cannot be as insane as I think it is, so do tell me where I go wrong. A prerequisite of an hierarchic classification system, is the absence of any overlapping classes. However, due to this absence of any overlapping classes, a hierarchic classification system is - by definition - the wrong tool to show evolution; overlap by gradual change via branching descent. IOW a hierarchic classification system is by definition - due to the absence of overlap - an evolution denier, since obviously 'non-overlap' means no evolution and no branching descent. Now after the construction of an hierarchic classification system (and the accompanying averting of overlap), we are asked by Darwinists to assume what we by definition cannot see: OVERLAP by branching descent. On your homepage you cite Agassiz:
What we call branches expresses, in fact, a purely ideal connection between animals, the intellectual conception which unites them in creative thought. It seems to me the more we examine the true significance of this kind of group, the more we shall be convinced that they are not founded upon material relations.
Do tell me that I have got it all wrong. Box
Keith: You keep talking about my “unsupported assumptions”, but every time I ask you to identify them, you list assumptions that I am not making — like the supposed assumption that the designer is “indifferent”.
Is it obvious that when one assigns equal probabilities - and holds that this is an accurate description of reality - that one is in effect assuming "indifference". Similarly, in terms of a die, one is assuming a "fair" (indifferent) die. Suppose we are standing near a highway junction. Now we see a car approaching the junction. Their are several possibilities: either the driver of the car chooses the junction, or continues on the highway, or turns his car around, or stops for a chat with us, or his car breaks down, or ... and so forth. Let's say there are a trillion of possibilities. Now when we, while standing near the highway junction and watching the car approaching, conclude that all the imaginable possibilities are equally likely - and hold that this estimation is an accurate description of reality - we must assume that the driver of the car is somehow "indifferent" towards the options available to him. IOW that there is an absence of reasons or preferences in the driver which would wreck equal probabilities. IOW we put a trillion-sided die behind the steering wheel. Like I said before:
There are all sorts of aspects of a free agent that wreck any attempt to assign equal probabilities. One is that – as HeKS pointed out – a free agent is supposed to have intelligent reasons for doing things. But the concept of equal probabilities is also wrecked by e.g. esthetic preferences and/or the goal that the free agent has in mind. So what I’m saying is that the actions of a free agent cannot be modeled by the role of a die. It cannot be done, so Keith should not do that. FULL STOP
Box
Vishnu, you are a disgusting load of trash. Pachyaena
HeKS, it's all starting to seem rather pointless.
Your only fault is that it's taken you this long to realize it. Look at how he responds @ 424. That's not a restatement of your position. Either he's mentally challenged and/or a troll who craves attention. Either way it doesn't matter. You did your job faultlessly and brilliantly. All sane thinking persons can see that. Barry knows it. Now, Barry, I implore you, get rid of keiths. Enough is enough. Oh, and by the way, keiths, are you A) a homosexual, and B) do you believe adults have the right to have sex with children? Yes or no. And yes or no. Just curious. (Seriously.) Vishnu
@Vishnu #422 Yes, exactly. This will be interesting if he actually tries it. It seems like I've yet to see a response from keiths that actually addresses any argument I'm actually making. He quotes me, then he writes words after my quotes that don't actually answer the arguments I've made. They just seem to be words that address some strawman he has created in his head (perhaps he just really doesn't grasp counter-arguments and has already convinced himself that it's not possible there could be valid counter-arguements at all). In any case, it's all starting to seem rather pointless. HeKS
Vishnu:
Mirror back to HeKS his position in your own words without quoting him. Let’s see if you can.
I did that already in #418:
HeKS, And yet your own circular logic is staring you in the face: 1) assume design; then 2) infer the designer’s characteristics from the design, so that 3) you can infer design, because the designer’s characteristics match the design. Embarrassing, isn’t it? The same bad logic works for the Rain Fairy: 1) assume that the Rain Fairy is responsible for the weather; 2) infer the Rain Fairy’s characteristics from the weather; 3) conclude that the Rain Fairy is responsible for the weather, because her characteristics match the weather so well!
keith s
HeKS, In light of the quotes in #420, let's hear your explanation of how your reasoning is not circular. Let the spinning begin. keith s
HeKS: As far as I can tell, you’ve misinterpreted the logic, not the words. If you’d merely misinterpreted me it would be less be embarrassing for you. I wonder if you’re able to reconstruct the actual logic of my argument for yourself if you spend a few minutes thinking about.
Keiths, here's a challenge: Mirror back to HeKS his position in your own words without quoting him. Let's see if you can. Vishnu
Keith, As far as I can tell, you've misinterpreted the logic, not the words. If you'd merely misinterpreted me it would be less be embarrassing for you. I wonder if you're able to reconstruct the actual logic of my argument for yourself if you spend a few minutes thinking about. Assume, for fun, that I'm not making a circular argument. Now try to see if you can understand the actual logic of the argument. I know that in asking you to try this out I myself am assuming, for the sake of argument, that you're able to distinguish between what is and is not a circular argument even though you've given me no reason to believe that, but the offer stands anyway. Regarding your Bob and Betty example, I'm working on my response as I have time between other things. I'll try to finish tonight but it might not get posted until some time this weekend. HeKS
HeKS, The circularity is right there in your own words. You can’t argue that I’ve misinterpreted you, because you keep repeating it: #378:
There’s also a difference between assuming something about a designer and inferring it on the basis of the thing that is believed to be designed.
And:
As such, one can make limited but warranted plausible inferences about a designer on the basis of their designs. And, given those inferences, one can also consider whether certain approaches can be more or less plausibly attributed to an agent with the characteristics that the designer is inferred to have on the basis of their designs.
And:
It also fails to take into account the ability to infer that certain characteristics are present in a designer based on an analysis of the things they are believed to have designed, and that this information can then be used in weighing the general likelihood that they might have produced other kinds of designs or used other kinds of design approaches.
And:
...it makes perfect sense to me that the designer would use some form of branching descent to achieve the multiple goals I mentioned, since it would fit right in with the design style I perceive the designer to be using in the systems that directly lead me to make a design inference in the first place.
#383:
And, in reality, even calling this an assumption is a misnomer, because it would actually just be an inference made on the basis of the designed artifacts.
And:
If we perform the same exercise after factoring in the problem/goal in question and the characteristics we can reasonably infer from the systems that triggered our design inference in the first place...
And finally:
And perhaps I should note that there’s nothing circular about using inferences drawn from systems that trigger a design inference...
How embarrassing, HeKS. Your argument founders on the freshman logic mistake of assuming your conclusion. keith s
Keith, What's embarrassing (for you) is that you don't understand the nature of the argument and so you've convinced yourself it's circular. HeKS
HeKS, And yet your own circular logic is staring you in the face: 1) assume design; then 2) infer the designer's characteristics from the design, so that 3) you can infer design, because the designer's characteristics match the design. Embarrassing, isn't it? The same bad logic works for the Rain Fairy: 1) assume that the Rain Fairy is responsible for the weather; 2) infer the Rain Fairy's characteristics from the weather; 3) conclude that the Rain Fairy is responsible for the weather, because her characteristics match the weather so well! keith s
Actually, I should amend that. You have made me struggle with getting you to understand the obvious or actually be genuinely responsive to counter-arguments. So I guess there's always that. HeKS
Keith,
Circularity again. HeKS, this is pitiful. You’re really struggling, aren’t you?
You've never given me anything to struggle against. Watching you fumble with logic is like watching a cat try to put together an IKEA bookcase. HeKS
HeKS #383, continued:
And, in reality, even calling this an assumption is a misnomer, because it would actually just be an inference made on the basis of the designed artifacts.
This is hopelessly circular. As I pointed out above, you can only make such inferences after you have inferred design:
Yes, after one has conclusively inferred design, but not before. It’s common sense. Otherwise you are falling into the Rain Fairy trap.
HeKS:
The only place that assumptions actually enter the picture is in using the inferences to weigh the relative plausibility of other hypothetical actions of the designer.
Again, that's circular. You can't use those inferences until after you have conclusively inferred design.
Keith’s argument assumes there is no reason to think the designer would make one choice over any other, but it ignores the things I said it ignores in my previous comment. If we perform the same exercise after factoring in the problem/goal in question and the characteristics we can reasonably infer from the systems that triggered our design inference in the first place...
Again, hopelessly circular. You can't rely on a design inference that you haven't yet made. It's the Rain Fairy fallacy all over again.
And perhaps I should note that there’s nothing circular about using inferences drawn from systems that trigger a design inference, as Keith’s argument is not even directly attacking the apparent design of those systems...
What apparent design? The evidence is exactly what we'd expect in the absence of design.
...but is only saying that the apparent design should be overpowered by the claimed improbability that the designer would generate life in a way that an ONH could be statistically inferred. It is therefore perfectly valid to consider whether what we see would really be unexpected if it were produced by the same designer who designed the systems present within the pattern, like the cell.
Circularity again. HeKS, this is pitiful. You're really struggling, aren't you? keith s
Only a fool, a moron or an ignoramus would think that unguided evolution predicts an objective nested hierarchy and Darwin, Denton and myself have provided the reasons why. Joe
While we await responses from Box and HeKS, let's look at HeKS's #383:
As I’ve said from the beginning, Keith’s argument is moved along at virtually every point by unstated and unsubstantiated assumptions, even when he thinks he isn’t making any assumptions. In this particular case, he’s making an argument that life was not designed on the basis of being able to statistically infer an ONH pattern in life, because there are supposedly a trillion other things the designer could have done and, not knowing anything about the designer, we have no reason to think he would have generated an ONH instead of any of the other alleged “trillion” options.
My use of the principle of indifference is not an assumption. It's the very opposite of an assumption, and I have already explained why it is the rational choice:
You have no observations of your purported designer to fall back on, so you can’t rule out any of the possibilities. It’s the principle of indifference: you can’t rule any possibilities out, so you can’t assign them a probability of zero; you can’t be certain of any of the possibilities either, so you can’t assign a probability of one to any of them. What’s left? You have to assign nonzero probabilities. But not just any nonzero probabilities. They have to be equal nonzero probabilities, because otherwise you are favoring some possibilities over others, with no justification. It’s both common sense and standard statistical practice. I think the only reason you have trouble with it is that you don’t like the implications it has for ID. Be brave, William.
HeKS:
However, it’s also misguided in trying to apply an equal probability to all “trillion” logically possible alternative approaches he thinks might exit,
What is your alternative scheme? How do you assign probabilities to the many possibilities, and with what justification?
...which necessarily makes many assumptions about the putative designer, pretty much all of which happen to be absurd on any non-ideological measure.
Again, the POI is what you apply in the absence of assumptions about the relative probabilities. You are making many assumptions, while I am sensibly refraining from doing so. After all, we have no information about the designer.
Logically possible approaches to solving a problem or reaching a goal are not like the two sides of a coin, or cards in a deck, such that all logically possible solutions are “indifferent”, or indistinguishable from each other, except on the basis of the names we call them or labels we assign to them.
In the absence of prior information about the designer, equal probabilities are appropriate. After all, what basis do we have for making them unequal, given that we know nothing about the designer, his/her/its goals, or his/her/its capabilities? Here's how I explained it to HD in the other thread:
Let me try an illustration. Suppose I take five standard US coins from my piggy bank and place them in a row on the tabletop. Each coin is either a penny, a nickel, a dime, or a quarter. I then phone you, tell you what I’ve done, and ask you how likely it is that the second coin from the right is a dime. What would your answer be? A statistician would reason as follows: I know the coin must be either a penny, a nickel, a dime, or a quarter. I know nothing else about it or about any of the other coins. With no other information to go on, I have to assume that it’s equally likely to be a penny, nickel, dime, or quarter. My best guess is that the likelihood is 25% that the second coin from the right is a dime. Now, in reality, all kinds of situations are possible. Maybe I only ever put pennies in my piggy bank, in which case the second coin from the right cannot possibly be a dime. Maybe I dump all of my change into the bank at the end of each day, in which case the coin might or might not be a dime. Maybe I carefully selected five dimes from the piggy bank before I called you, in which case it is certain that the second coin from the right is a dime. All of these things are possible, but you have no idea which of them, if any, are true. Lacking that information, the smart thing to do is what the statistician does: assign equal probabilities to all of the possibilities. The odds are 25% that the coin is a dime. If we know nothing about ID’s putative designer — and we don’t — then the rational thing to do is to assign equal probability to all of the possibilities for what the designer could do. He could produce an ONH, or he could produce one of the trillions of alternatives. When we assign equal probabilities to all the possibilities, we find that the designer is trillions of times less likely to produce an ONH versus something else. With unguided evolution, it has to be an ONH. The UE prediction is confirmed, and ID is outclassed. Unguided evolution is unquestionably the better hypothesis, by an enormous margin.
keith s
Box, While we're waiting for HeKS to respond to my comments, how about answering the question I posed to you:
You keep talking about my “unsupported assumptions”, but every time I ask you to identify them, you list assumptions that I am not making — like the supposed assumption that the designer is “indifferent”. Can you list any “unsupported assumptions” that I am actually making?
And do you understand why your "indifferent designer" claim is silly? keith s
@Box #409 I think WJM called it exactly right. HeKS
HeKS #407, I quoted the comment because it was relevant to the point I was making. Please, less complaining and more substance. I've explained why the assumptions that you and Box accuse me of making are not assumptions at all. The principle of indifference applies when you aren't making assumptions about the relative probabilities. Do you have a counterargument? If equal probabilities are inappropriate, then show us how you assign probabilities to the various possibilities, and justify your scheme. I've also pointed out that the assumptions you are making are unjustified, and explained why. Do you have a rebuttal? How do you know that the designer is human-like in the relevant respects? Where are you getting your knowledge of the designer? Please share your source with the rest of us. keith s
HeKS #402: Is it just me or is this getting utterly ridiculous? (...) I’m not sure what can possibly be expected of me in dealing with a person like this.
It most certainly is not just you. On the 8th of november William J Murray wrote the following in the "How Keith’s “Bomb” Turned Into A Suicide Mission" thread:
I think the best we can hope for here is for interested onlookers with relatively open minds to judge for themselves. I’ve debated keith at TSZ a few times and watched him debate others. Whether it is about ID or not, with IDists or not, this is the kind of debate pattern you get from Keith. Even if we hold the view that he is impenetrable to the rebuttals/counter-arguments and has an indefatigable, self-aggrandizing internal narrative, at least he came over here and committed himself with an actual argument. I can respect that. Many other anti-IDists offer nothing more than invective, cheerleading and character attacks. The downside, however, will be months and months of keiths inserting his narrative in at every opportunity about how IDists were “afraid” to answer his questions and about how he blew up ID with a bomb we couldn’t refute.
Box
Keith, I'm interested in something. Did you think it was a fluke that I chose a cell, a single cell, from which to draw my very modest and limited inferences about a designer? In reality, the choice was deliberate. Not because it was actually necessary for me to do so, but because I have some sense of your form of argumentation at this point. Did you actually stop to think about why I made that choice? HeKS
Also, BTW, the last time you thought I complained about when you posted ... I wasn't complaining that I wasn't ready or about the timing of your post. I was pointing out that there was no need for you to repaste to me a chunk of a previous comment, as though I wasn't aware of it, right after I had just told you I was going to be responding that comment it was taken from soon. HeKS
The evidence has keith s as the rain fairy Joe
keith, I don't know what you're talking about. I wasn't complaining that you responded when I wasn't ready. I was simply expressing to Box that I feel the effort I'm putting in to trying to get you to understand why your previous example doesn't work is likely a complete waste of effort, because you're so stuck on certain ideas that you don't even seem to understand the arguments made against them, as indicated by your last few posts. For example, you have this favorite argument in the form of this Rain Fairy Fallacy, but you don't even seem to grasp the logic behind it in order to make a distinction between when it's valid to use and when it isn't. HeKS
HeKS, This is the second time that you've complained because I've responded when you weren't ready. What's up with that? We comment when we have the time and inclination. Deal with it and make your case, if you can. keith s
Box:
Keith, you are not making sense for two reasons: First, when someone is making unsupported assumptions, like you do, all you got is … unsupported assumptions.
Box, You keep talking about my "unsupported assumptions", but every time I ask you to identify them, you list assumptions that I am not making -- like the supposed assumption that the designer is "indifferent". Can you list any "unsupported assumptions" that I am actually making?
HeKS argues that assumptions based on the thing that is believed to be designed, are (better) supported.
That is the Rain Fairy fallacy. Trust me, you don't want to make that mistake.
Second, it is part of your argument to assume that a designer exists and is capable of producing the ONH and alternatives.
Yes, temporarily and for the sake of argument only. Without those assumptions, ID is ruled out from the get-go. Surely you don't want that.
HeKS builds on that assumption and arrives at very different (more logical) characteristics of the designer than you do.
HeKS needs to justify the additional assumptions. He or she hasn't done so, as I pointed out above. keith s
@Box #396 Is it just me or is this getting utterly ridiculous? Here I am working up a response to Keith to explain to him why his Bob and Betty analogy is not analogous at all (false analogies seem to be a real favorite of his), and I see these responses from him. I spend all this time and write all these words just to make sure Keith actually understands the issues and then he comes back seeming not to understand them at all, making the same mistakes over and over, and then asking me to use fewer words. I'm not sure what can possibly be expected of me in dealing with a person like this. HeKS
Theobald's figure 1 is not a nested hierarchy. It is a tree depicting ancestor-descendent relationships- note the red nodes Joe
Yes, Box, Denton was talking about branching descent. Joe
Keith #396
HeKS: There’s also a difference between assuming something about a designer and inferring it on the basis of the thing that is believed to be designed.
Keith: If you do the latter, you are committing the Rain Fairy fallacy.
Keith, you are not making sense for two reasons: First, when someone is making unsupported assumptions, like you do, all you got is ... unsupported assumptions. HeKS argues that assumptions based on the thing that is believed to be designed, are (better) supported. Your reply make it seem as if you prefer the purely unsupported ones?! Second, it is part of your argument to assume that a designer exists and is capable of producing the ONH and alternatives. HeKS builds on that assumption and arrives at very different (more logical) characteristics of the designer than you do. However at this point you seem to forget your own argument and rebuke him for assuming the existence of designer and start off with your Rain Fairy nonsense. Let's keep some focus. Box
HeKS #378, continued:
As such, one can make limited but warranted plausible inferences about a designer on the basis of their designs.
Yes, after one has conclusively inferred design, but not before. It's common sense. Otherwise you are falling into the Rain Fairy trap.
Further, one can consider whether anything in the nature of the project itself suggests constraints, even without giving consideration to the abilities or characteristics of the designer.
Yes, and if you are aware of any such constraints that are relevant to the ONH, please describe them.
We can also consider the kinds of methods that we would use to approach a project, goal or problem and use that as a context for the types of approaches we might expect to see some other intelligent agent using.
That amounts to assuming that the designer is like us in certain particular respects. That's fine, as long as you can justify those assumptions. But can you?
Now, one of the many problems with your argument is that, for all intents and purposes, you represent the designer as a random process that is exactly as likely to choose one logically possible option as another.
No. You and Box keep making this mistake. See my #392 above.
I know you’ve tried to deny that your argument assumes the designer acts like a random process or, indeed, makes any assumptions about the designer at all, but you’re mistaken.
Then show me. What probabilities would you assign to the various possibilities, and why?
Assigning equal probability to all options, in itself, necessarily implies certain assumptions about the designer, like: - In approaching a complex design and engineering project, it is just as likely that the designer will use an incoherent and haphazard approach as a coherent, organized and methodical one
Incoherent and haphazard with respect to whose standards and whose goals? Where are you getting all of this information about the Designer? Also, non-ONH motifs are not "incoherent and haphazard" unless you think that almost all human designs are "incoherent and haphazard". ONHs are the rare exception, not the rule, in human design.
- If the designer chooses a coherent, organized and methodical approach to a complex design and engineering project, it is just as likely that the designer will utterly abandon his approach for a completely different one over and over during the course of the project as it is that he will follow the coherent, organized and methodical approach he originally decided on.
What knowledge of the designer are you basing that assumption on? Perhaps the designer is clever enough that he/she/it doesn't need to follow a "coherent, organized and methodical approach". He/she/it might be smart enough to wing it, in other words. We simply don't know, because we know nothing about the designer -- as your fellow IDers never tire of reminding us. Where are you getting your knowledge of the Designer's nature? I'm sure they would like to know, as would I.
- If the designer chose an approach that would result in a statistically inferable pattern into which his work would ultimately be able to be classified, it is just as likely that he would go to great lengths to ensure that such a pattern would be impossible to statistically infer as it is that he would be content to allow that pattern to stand.
You still haven't justified the assumption that the designer would choose such an approach in the first place. keith s
HeKS, Could you please try to be more concise? There is a lot of repetitious verbiage in your #378, but very few distinct points. keith s
HeKS #378:
You’ve gone back to making a claim that would apply to an absolute ONH that considers all characters rather than a statistical ONH based on the correlations between many incongruent trees.
No, my argument is based on a statistical ONH (the consensus phylogeny of the 30 major taxa, shown in Theobald's Figure 1). In this particular case the morphological and molecular data cited by Theobald generate phylogenies that match exactly out of 10^38 possibilities, but my argument does not depend on an exact match. The probability of an exact or close to exact match is vanishingly small.
If traits are largely distributed through a form of branching descent then life will generally look like an ONH.
You haven't justified the assumption that the designer would choose to distribute traits that way, nor have you justified the additional assumption that the rate of change would be slow enough to enable the recovery of an ONH.
There’s also a difference between assuming something about a designer and inferring it on the basis of the thing that is believed to be designed.
If you do the latter, you are committing the Rain Fairy fallacy. Take any physical phenomenon whatsoever. I can claim that it is designed, and I can infer that the designer wanted it that way (or was limited to making it that way, or just happened to make it that way). It works for Rain Fairies, Salt Leprechauns, and Shamu the Invisible Toilet Whale. It's bad logic. The difference between UE and ID is that we already know that UE exists, that it operates via slow mutation and primarily vertical inheritance, and we know this from direct observation. We don't have to infer it from the thing we are trying to explain, so we are not committing the Rain Fairy fallacy. keith s
Joe quoting Denton: The absence of any overlapping classes implies the absence of any sort of natural sequential relationships among the objects grouped by such a scheme.
Absent natural sequential relationships aka "branching descent"? Box
Humans mix-and-match to a degree simply not found in biological trees.
Except when includes all of the required transitional forms. Also there isn't anything with the concept of evolution that prevents mixing and matching. Chapter 6 of "Evolution: A Theory in Crisis":
Whenever classification schemes are drawn up for phenomena which fall into a continuous or obviously sequential pattern—such as climatic zones from the artic to the tropics, subspecies in a circumpolar overlap, the properties of atoms in the periodic table, series of fossil horses, or wind strengths from breeze to hurricane—class boundaries are bound to be relatively arbitrary and indistinct. Most of the classes defined in such schemes are inevitably partially inclusive of other classes, or, in other words, fundamentally intermediate in character with respect to adjacent classes in the scheme. Consequently, when such schemes are depicted in terms of Venn diagrams, most of the classes overlap and the schemes overall have a disorderly appearance. A quite different type of classification system is termed hierarchic. In which there are no overlapping or partially inclusive classes, but only classes inclusive or exclusive of other classes. Such schemes exhibit, therefore, an orderly “groups within groups” arrangement in which class boundaries are distinct and the divisions in the system increase in a systematic manner as the hierarchy is ascended. The absence of any overlapping classes implies the absence of any sort of natural sequential relationships among the objects grouped by such a scheme." - Denton (bold added)
Oops... Joe
@Keith #392, I'll address that specific example in a few hours. I'm a little busy at the moment. HeKS
HeKS, Box, Both of you are still hung up on my use of the principle of indifference. Reread my earlier comment on this:
Box, Here’s an example to show why your “indifferent designer” claim is silly. Suppose I’m investigating a crime perpetrated by a lone individual. I narrow the suspects down to two, Bob and Betty, each of whom seems equally likely to have committed the crime, based on the evidence to date. Bob likes traveling by train, but Betty prefers flying. I can truthfully say “there’s a 50% chance that the perpetrator prefers flying, and a 50% chance that the perpetrator prefer traveling by train.” Does that mean that the perpetrator is indifferent to the mode of transportation? Obviously not. There’s also a 50% chance that the perpetrator is a man, and a 50% chance that the perpetrator is a woman. Does that mean that the perpetrator is a hermaphrodite? Obviously not. I hope (almost pray) that you can see the connection to our ongoing debate. The fact that the probabilities are equal does not mean I’m assuming that the designer is indifferent. William, HeKS, Similar arguments apply to the questions of whether the designer is omnipotent and whether or not he/she/it likes/is indifferent to/hates ONHs.
Do you understand why assigning equal probabilities to "by train" and "by plane" does not indicate that the perpetrator is indifferent to the mode of travel? If not, then keep thinking about it. It's very important. keith s
@Box #390 That's very kind of you to say. For the last few years I've spent most of my work time focused on web design and development, and particularly on user interface programming. However, for the 13 or so years before that, much of my work time was spent on writing, with a focus on simplifying complex policy and procedural information for government employees. So whatever I may bring to the table in terms of writing is largely just the result of lots of practice. HeKS
HeKS #389 Re: #385, I get what you’re saying about the fact that there could be real teleology even apart from an external designer, but taking the evidence for ID in biology, physics and cosmology together, I happen to think there is an external designer, so I’m more inclined to argue on that basis.
Point taken. If we ask real nicely we might be able to get Shapiro to join the ID-movement - as long as we don't mention the fine-tuning of the cosmos :) HeKS #389, as usual I fully enjoyed your posts. I guess I'm not the only one who wishes that he could write like you. Box
@WJM #386 I thought it might have gotten too long and boring. HeKS
@Box Re: #387, I completely agree. Re: #385, I get what you're saying about the fact that there could be real teleology even apart from an external designer, but taking the evidence for ID in biology, physics and cosmology together, I happen to think there is an external designer, so I'm more inclined to argue on that basis. But as a purely logical line of attack against Keith's argument, the point works. HeKS
HeKS: Logically possible approaches to solving a problem or reaching a goal are not like the two sides of a coin, or cards in a deck, such that all logically possible solutions are “indifferent”, or indistinguishable from each other, except on the basis of the names we call them or labels we assign to them. As such, assigning them probabilities on the basis of the principle of indifference is nonsensical.
I agree. If our joint starting point is an external intelligent conscious designer then reason dictates that such a designer is much more likely to opt for logical solutions. IOW assigning equal probabilities to the alleged trillions of ‘solutions’ is out.
HeKS: It is therefore perfectly valid to consider whether what we see would really be unexpected if it were produced by the same designer who designed the systems present within the pattern, like the cell.
Again, I fully agree. - However, what deserves attention is a principled approach of Keith’s argument: ** A free agent cannot be compared with the role of a die – full stop ** There are all sorts of aspects of a free agent that wreck any attempt to assign equal probabilities. One is that – as you pointed out - a free agent is supposed to have intelligent reasons for doing things. But the concept of equal probabilities is also wrecked by e.g. esthetic preferences and/or the goal that the free agent has in mind. So what I’m saying is that the actions of a free agent cannot be modelled by the role of a die. It cannot be done, so Keith should not do that. FULL STOP If Keith still insists on assigning equal probabilities he has to turn a free agent in a trillion-sided die. In order to achieve that Keith carries the burden to find support for the many necessary assumptions. To be clear: the burden of proof lies with Keith. However, Keith mistakenly thinks that this is not the case.
Keith: They can force guided evolution to match the evidence, but only by making a completely arbitrary assumption about the behavior of the Designer. They must stipulate, for no particular reason, that the Designer restricts himself to a tiny subset of the available options, and that this subset just happens to be the subset that creates a recoverable, objective, nested hierarchy of the kind that is predicted by unguided evolution.
Like I said, Keith’s wrong on this. It is in fact the other way around. The ID-side doesn’t have to assume, force, restrict or stipulate anything. It’s not up to us to assume a particular free agent who wrecks equal probabilities. We hold that a free agent in principle wrecks equal probabilities and therefore cannot be modelled that way. It’s Keith who wants to try it anyway. So it’s up to Keith to offer support for his assumption of an indifferent designer who has no reason (or preference) to restrict himself to a tiny subset of the available options. Box
HeKS @378: Another masterful job exposing keith's hidden, convenient assumptions. Box @385: Ouch! Yet another fatal, erroneous assumption exposed. William J Murray
Dembski proposes to not restrict ID to an external design(er). This idea provides yet new ways to prove Keith's argument to be wrong.
Dembski: The definition of intelligent design just given, which explicitly cites real teleology and does not restrict itself to external design, (…)
What this means is that e.g. Shapiro's ‘natural genetic engineering’ can be accommodated by ID. IOW we can counter Keith's argument by saying: Keith you assume an external designer who looks at the tree of life and makes conscious choices wrt its shape. However ID doesn't make such assumptions. Maybe organisms do their own 'natural genetic engineering'. Maybe there is no such overview on the tree of life. ID does not commit itself to an external and conscious designer. IOW we have the additional (luxurious) option to let Shapiro take care of Keith's argument. And Shapiro will make Keith abundantly clear that his assumptions about the designer - even the very basic one about an 'external conscious designer' - are profoundly unsupported. More on defining ID, from Dembski’s ‘Being as Communion’:
Intelligent design is the study of patterns (hence “design”) in nature that give empirical evidence of resulting from real teleology (hence “intelligent”). In this definition, real teleology is not reducible to purely material processes. At the same time, in this definition, real teleology is not simply presupposed as a consequence of prior metaphysical commitments. Intelligent design asks teleology to prove itself scientifically. In the context of biology, intelligent design looks for patterns in biological systems that confirm real teleology. The definition of intelligent design given here is in fact how its proponents understand the term. This definition avoids two common linguistic pitfalls associated with it: intelligent design’s critics tend to assume that the reference to “design” in “intelligent design” commits it to an external-design view of teleology; moreover, they tend to assume that the reference to “intelligent” in “intelligent design” makes any such external design the product of a conscious personal intelligent agent. Both assumptions are false.
Box
HeKS, Box, My eyelids are drooping, so I'm going to postpone my replies to your comments until tomorrow. Talk to you then. keith s
@Box #382 Just to be clear, I don't think we need to make assumptions in order to make a design inference. But making a design inference is not really what Keith's argument is about. As I've said from the beginning, Keith's argument is moved along at virtually every point by unstated and unsubstantiated assumptions, even when he thinks he isn't making any assumptions. In this particular case, he's making an argument that life was not designed on the basis of being able to statistically infer an ONH pattern in life, because there are supposedly a trillion other things the designer could have done and, not knowing anything about the designer, we have no reason to think he would have generated an ONH instead of any of the other alleged "trillion" options. As I've said, this argument is already wrong-headed in focusing on a statistically inferable ONH signal rather than the process that would naturally lead to it. However, it's also misguided in trying to apply an equal probability to all "trillion" logically possible alternative approaches he thinks might exit, which necessarily makes many assumptions about the putative designer, pretty much all of which happen to be absurd on any non-ideological measure. Logically possible approaches to solving a problem or reaching a goal are not like the two sides of a coin, or cards in a deck, such that all logically possible solutions are "indifferent", or indistinguishable from each other, except on the basis of the names we call them or labels we assign to them. As such, assigning them probabilities on the basis of the principle of indifference is nonsensical. But the fact remains that if Keith is going to argue that life is not the product of design using an argument that necessarily relies heavily on making implicit assumptions about the designer (even when he doesn't realize he's doing it), then one must point out that those implicit assumptions are not warranted on any reasonable measure (and are, in fact, largely absurd), and that if we're going to proceed with making assumptions about the designer, there are much better and more reasonable assumptions that could be made, and which also happen to be very limited, even being as simple as assuming that the intelligent designer is intelligent, or that the designer is good at what he/she does. And, in reality, even calling this an assumption is a misnomer, because it would actually just be an inference made on the basis of the designed artifacts. The only place that assumptions actually enter the picture is in using the inferences to weigh the relative plausibility of other hypothetical actions of the designer. Keith's argument assumes there is no reason to think the designer would make one choice over any other, but it ignores the things I said it ignores in my previous comment. If we perform the same exercise after factoring in the problem/goal in question and the characteristics we can reasonably infer from the systems that triggered our design inference in the first place (though we could always ignore these and just posit any competent designer), we get a very different result. And perhaps I should note that there's nothing circular about using inferences drawn from systems that trigger a design inference, as Keith's argument is not even directly attacking the apparent design of those systems, but is only saying that the apparent design should be overpowered by the claimed improbability that the designer would generate life in a way that an ONH could be statistically inferred. It is therefore perfectly valid to consider whether what we see would really be unexpected if it were produced by the same designer who designed the systems present within the pattern, like the cell. HeKS
HeKS #378, Interesting to learn that you argue against Keith's implicit assumptions about the designer based on the idea that we can make better and more informed assumptions. Informed by the things that are believed to be designed and on what we know about the act of designing. And I certainly have to agree that - if we are to make assumptions about the designer - yours do make a lot of sense.
HeKS: I don’t agree in an absolute sense that we can’t assume anything about the designer, no. It depends on the context in which the assumption is being made. There’s also a difference between assuming something about a designer and inferring it on the basis of the thing that is believed to be designed.
I'm not yet convinced that I should turn away from the minimalistic (no-assumption) approach. Relevant is the following quote taken from Dembski's 'Being as Communion', where is argued that ID doesn't even have to assume that the designer is conscious personal intelligent agent.
Granted, intelligent design is compatible with external design imposed by a conscious personal intelligent agent. But it is not limited to this understanding of teleology in nature. In fact, it is open to whatever form teleology in nature may take provided that the teleology is real. The principle of charity in interpretation demands that, so long as speakers are not simply making up meanings as they go along, terms are to be interpreted in line with speakers’ intent and recognized linguistic usage. The definition of intelligent design just given, which explicitly cites real teleology and does not restrict itself to external design, is consistent with recognized meanings of both words that make up the term intelligent design. Design includes among its recognized meanings pattern, arrangement, or form, and thus can be a synonym for information. Moreover, intelligence can be a general term for denoting causes that have teleological effects. Intelligence therefore need not merely refer to conscious personal intelligent agents like us, but can also refer to teleology quite generally. [ emphasis added ]
Box
Zachriel: You will also find that genetic and phenotypic data show largely consistent nested hierarchies. logically_speaking: No they don’t. Sure they do. The anomalies are just that, anomalies. And they are subject to investigation, and often have explanations which can be supported through investigation. logically_speaking: varied by the experimenter Science requires independent verification. Other experimenters will play with the knobs. That's what they do. logically_speaking: saying something is primitive or derived is subjective based on an assumption. No. It's based by their position within the phylogenetic tree. logically_speaking: Thanks for showing that the myth still continues today. It's an observable fact that embryos of related taxa are more similar than their adult forms. logically_speaking: nice way to not answer the question. You diverted from our response by asking a question. You suggested that because a designer chose a pyramid over a cube that observing the pyramid is subjective. It's not. It's a pyramid, as all observers can agree. Diverting the discussion doesn't change the observation. logically_speaking: Funny how he doesn’t even mention phenogram once. Theobald was working with protein sequences, and the reconstruction was independent of any assumption about ancestry. logically_speaking: Is the temperature in Ceclius or Fahrenheit? Doesn't matter. They measure the same phenomenon. logically_speaking: Guess what both are subjective. Seriously, you're saying that taking a temperature measurement is subjective. logically_speaking: Great grandma, grandmother, mother, daughter. That must be what you mean by decent. That's descent, but not branching descent. Cladogenesis is branching. logically_speaking: Complexity plus specification is best explained by ID, and you know it. Well, no. We don't. Indeed, it's hard to even get a concise definition of specified complexity. They seemingly vary among each IDer. chi = – log2 [ 10 ^ –120 * phi~S(T) * P(T|H) ] Is P(T|H) a probability distribution? logically_speaking: Again your subjectively choosing obvervable traits without explaining why the unobserved ones are not as important. Whales under w, bats under b. logically_speaking: Saying something is a best fit here, is mearly an extrapolation based on an assumption that the more shared traits means closer relatedness. Seriously. Now you're arguing that we can look at the traits of a dog, cat, and sunflower, and pick out the one that is objectively most different. You're funny. Zachriel
HeKS: There are significant incongruities throughout the entire supposed “Tree of Life” and they do not “completely wreck” the statistical ONH signal derived from the correlations at all. No, but it's worth pointing out that human artifacts generally do not form an objective nested hierarchy. HeKS: To attempt to apply the Principle of Indifference to the array of logically possible (but so far unstated) actions a designer might take in approaching a problem or carrying out a goal doesn’t actually make any sense. The principle of indifference is the reason we reject special creation in lieu of branching descent. Sure, the angels may just like elliptical orbits, but pointing to whim or some inscrutable motive of an unevidenced designer is not a reasonable argument. If you don't know why planets follow their orbits, then the answer is you don't know why planets follow their orbits. Indeed, that's why you accept branching descent rather than special creation. Because it fits the evidence without invoking the whims or inscrutable motives of an unevidenced designer. HeKS: “Purifying selection” happens because organisms are made of complex, tightly-constrained, highly integrated systems. Purifying selection can occur for many environmental reasons, including changes to the environment that can be tracked. Because it is due to changes in the environment, it is not due to being tightly constrained intrinsically, but constrained by the changing circumstance. HeKS: Photo editing software also sometimes has some overlap with word processing software Or telephones, or mapping systems, or mounted on the dash of a car with leather upholstery. That's why human artifacts do not form objective nested hierarchies. Humans mix-and-match to a degree simply not found in biological trees. HeKS: The only thing I’m ‘assuming’ is that its reasonable to expect an intelligent designer to make an intelligent design choice, and so if using branching descent for the differential distribution of traits, the generation of organismal diversity and the facilitation of environmental adaptation makes good sense from a design perspective, it would be reasonable for the designer to use it. If we only had the nested hierarchy to go on, then you might reasonably engage in that speculation. But it's not. Zachriel
Zachriel, As this thread has been bumped off the front page now, I usually use that as a guide to finish up. So forgive me that this will be my final post on this thread. My answers will try to reflect that. logically_speaking: On if some traits are more important than others, or how many traits are shared between them, or both? You: Based on all the traits. You will also find that genetic and phenotypic data show largely consistent nested hierarchies. Me: No they don't. logically_speaking: It’s my experiment, I can set the rules. You: The experimental method involves varying parameters. Me: yeah varied by the experimenter. logically_speaking: Second we do see mix and match like the duck billed platypus. You: The platypus exhibits primitive and derived features. Me: saying something is primitive or derived is subjective based on an assumption. logically_speaking: I never claimed it was a logical error, it is an elementary error. You: The claim wasn’t unreasonable, and newer theories had to explain why it did seem reasonable at the time. Embryos from related taxa do resemble each other more than their developed forms. Me: That’s right Zachriel, you try and defend the fraudster Haeckel. Thanks for showing that the myth still continues today. logically_speaking: Is the fact that it’s a pyramid, more important than it not being a cube, or a random hole in the floor. You: Regardless, it’s objectively a pyramid. Me: nice way to not answer the question. logically_speaking: I have been arguing against Theobald’s ONH which uses Phylogenetic cladistics. You: We have been very specific, and repeated our position multiple times. As for Theobald, he used two methods, one of which was inclusive. The result was substantially the same. Me: Funny how he doesn't even mention phenogram once. logically_speaking: However, once again we are back to a subjective choice that will influence the outcome. Which mode of classification to use phenetic or cladistic analysis. You: When we say the temperature is a certain temperature, it’s an objective measurement even if we are the ones to decide to measure it. Phenetic and cladistic analysis reveal substantially the same tree. There are anomalies, but that’s to be expected when dealing with ancient transitions in lineages that have changed over time. Me: Is the temperature in Ceclius or Fahrenheit? Guess what both are subjective. logically_speaking: If we can arrange life “based on overall similarity of many characteristics without regard to evolutionary history or assumed significance of specific characters”, then evolution cannot be THE explanation for the nested hierarchies. You: Branching descent. Me: Great grandma, grandmother, mother, daughter. That must be what you mean by decent. logically_speaking: But unfortunately your counter example fails, as Boyle’s law is (probably) a fundamental universal constant, hense law. You: The counterexample works fine. We chose it because there was no ambiguity. It shows that simply because we name something after someone doesn’t mean it is subjective. Me: But sometimes it does, as in the case with the many taxonomic methods. logically_speaking: You very well know “It’s complex, therefore design”, is NOT the design argument. You: Of course it is, hence IC and CSI, both of which concern what is purportedly otherwise unexplainable complexity. Me: see what you did there, you added a specifation. Complexity plus specification is best explained by ID, and you know it. logically_speaking: But you don’t list all of the traits, why should I. You: Whales under w, bats under b. List all the traits, then form your groups. Look at blood, tissue, organs, skeleton, brains, neurons, skin, eyes, ears, lungs. Look at all of it, then form your groups. Me: no, the one experiment I did is enough to prove my points. logically_speaking: What about all the traits they don’t share, why are these not important? You: Look at all the observable traits, then form your groups. Me: Again your subjectively choosing obvervable traits without explaining why the unobserved ones are not as important. logically_speaking: If we wrote down your classification on paper then sure whales could be closer to bats than fish, but it doesn’t mean anything. You: If we classify bats and whales along with other organisms, bats and whales will fit best with organisms such as dogs and squirrels than with fish. It’s not that difficult. Perhaps we should start with a simpler example. Based on a study of observable traits, which one doesn’t belong: cat, dog, sunflower. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ect-kgxBb4M Me: If we based the study on traits they don't share the results will be different. logically_speaking: There are several ways to create such trees. You: Sure there are, but with biological organisms, they are largely in agreement. Having independent means of confirming the finding supports our confidence in the finding. Where they are not in agreement is of primary interest to biologists. Examples of anomalies include posited convergence, horizontal inheritance, adaptive radiation, etc. Me: you have nothing more than get out clauses. A designer mix and match is a better explanation. You: But that doesn’t change the fact that when looking at observable traits, cats and dogs objectively fit best compared to sunflowers. And that when we examine many organisms they fit an objective nested hierarchy. Me: Best fit compared to what? Saying something is a best fit here, is mearly an extrapolation based on an assumption that the more shared traits means closer relatedness. It's circular reasoning. logically_speaking: Interesting, why did you place the platypus at the end? You: Because monotremes nest within mammals which nest within therapsids which nest within synapsids, and so on. Me: see Joe's response. Ok I am done posting on this thread. You may have the last word if you wish Zachriel. logically_speaking
@Keith #141
Once you recognize this – that it would take a lot of concerted effort to wreck the ONH under these circumstances – you are forced to try to argue that the designer in question would want to go out of its way specifically for the purpose of wrecking that signal that was naturally caused by its chosen method of distributing traits and facilitating adaptation. Why should we assume the designer would want to do that?
First, it’s not difficult to wreck an ONH. Humans do it all the time with their designs, which generally don’t fall into an ONH.
Incorrect, and non-responsive to my point. You've gone back to making a claim that would apply to an absolute ONH that considers all characters rather than a statistical ONH based on the correlations between many incongruent trees. There are significant incongruities throughout the entire supposed "Tree of Life" and they do not "completely wreck" the statistical ONH signal derived from the correlations at all. Nor would they be expected to. If traits are largely distributed through a form of branching descent then life will generally look like an ONH. If designs/traits used in one lineage are sometimes inserted into one or more other lineages, this will not remotely "wreck" the overall ONH signal. Not even if this was done very often. And especially not if the design/trait was altered to fit better in its new organismal environment. The general trend of distributing traits through some form of branching descent would continue to allow for the statistical detection of an ONH signal that dwarfed the numerous cases where the structure was significantly broken. This is one of the problems with claiming life is a true ONH when the ONH signal is inferred statistically from the correlation of a limited set of traits, using a limited range of comparisons, across many incongruent trees.
Secondly, you appear to be making an awful lot of assumptions about the designer. On what basis? Practically every IDer I’ve encountered says that we can’t assume anything about the designer, and that “the designer wouldn’t have done it that way” is not a permissible argument. Do you disagree? If you would like to make assumptions about the designer, that’s fine. Just be aware that you must justify them. They can’t be ad hoc assumptions introduced simply for the purpose of conforming the designer to the evidence — that’s the Rain Fairy fallacy.
I don't agree in an absolute sense that we can't assume anything about the designer, no. It depends on the context in which the assumption is being made. There's also a difference between assuming something about a designer and inferring it on the basis of the thing that is believed to be designed. With regards to discerning the characteristics of a designer, I've stated my position on this site a few times: the design inference can provide us with insight into the minimum set of characteristics that the designer must possess, not the maximum set of characteristics the designer might possess. As such, one can make limited but warranted plausible inferences about a designer on the basis of their designs. And, given those inferences, one can also consider whether certain approaches can be more or less plausibly attributed to an agent with the characteristics that the designer is inferred to have on the basis of their designs. Further, one can consider whether anything in the nature of the project itself suggests constraints, even without giving consideration to the abilities or characteristics of the designer. We can also consider the kinds of methods that we would use to approach a project, goal or problem and use that as a context for the types of approaches we might expect to see some other intelligent agent using. The results of such considerations are not just "ad hoc assumptions introduced simply for the purpose of conforming the designer to the evidence". It's true that they do not result in deductive certainty, but they give us a reasonable frame of reference for what kinds of things might be more plausible and which might be less plausible, and which types of things we might be more likely to expect or less likely to expect. Now, one of the many problems with your argument is that, for all intents and purposes, you represent the designer as a random process that is exactly as likely to choose one logically possible option as another. But intelligent agents don't work that way. And more specifically, designers don't work that way. I know you've tried to deny that your argument assumes the designer acts like a random process or, indeed, makes any assumptions about the designer at all, but you're mistaken. Assigning equal probability to all options, in itself, necessarily implies certain assumptions about the designer, like: - In approaching a complex design and engineering project, it is just as likely that the designer will use an incoherent and haphazard approach as a coherent, organized and methodical one - If the designer chooses a coherent, organized and methodical approach to a complex design and engineering project, it is just as likely that the designer will utterly abandon his approach for a completely different one over and over during the course of the project as it is that he will follow the coherent, organized and methodical approach he originally decided on. And even... - If the designer chose an approach that would result in a statistically inferable pattern into which his work would ultimately be able to be classified, it is just as likely that he would go to great lengths to ensure that such a pattern would be impossible to statistically infer as it is that he would be content to allow that pattern to stand. Your assigning of equal probability to all options also makes assumptions like this: - When any given intelligent person is presented with the full array of logically possible solutions to a problem, it is plausible to think that person will consider all logically possible solutions equally viable and desirable, or else will be indifferent to the general viability or desirability of the various solutions. Or, similarly, but more generally: - Given a vast array of logically possible approaches to carrying out a task, it is unlikely that a drastically reduced subset of more desirable approaches will consistently emerge if the full array of options are presented in a survey to a sample of people skilled in the subject matter. We have no reason to think any of these types of assumptions are true and a wealth of reasons (the totality of our experience of the domains of design, programming, engineering, etc.) to think they are false. To attempt to apply the Principle of Indifference to the array of logically possible (but so far unstated) actions a designer might take in approaching a problem or carrying out a goal doesn't actually make any sense. The principle of indifference is applied when we are not aware of any variables to distinguish any one option from another, such that there is true "indifference" between any two given options and they are actually indistinguishable from each other except in terms of the labels that are applied to them. It is nonsensical to apply this to the array of logically possible ways a person might attempt to solve a problem, reach a goal, or undertake a complex project, because there are ways to distinguish the logically possible options from each other and to identify certain options as being better than others to achieve the intended purpose. Additionally, the specific details of the problem may place further constraints on even the small subset of preferable options and may suggest a further, smaller subset of best choices, or even just one. Consider a scenario: A man you've never seen before and about whom you know nothing is being chased by a group of people who are screaming that they are going to kill him and who are carrying knives, axes and other sharp objects, and one guy with a bow and arrow. The mob is about 20-30 yards behind the man, who is running as fast as he can. A little ahead of the man is a huge gorge hundreds of feet deep and a few hundred feet wide, and on the other side of it is a large mass of people waving him over saying they can help him. As the man approaches the edge he sees two old ropes spanning the gorge, one a few feet above the other, just off to his left. Slightly to his right he sees a nice, new steel bridge spanning the gorge. Both the makeshift rope bridge and the professionally constructed steel bridge are logically possible options for getting to the people on the other side of the gorge. Given that the only thing we know about the man at this point is that he seems to have the goal of surviving, should we conclude that because we don't know anything else about him other than the basic goal he's trying to achieve that it is therefore just as likely that he will choose to take the rope bridge as the steel bridge? The answer, of course, is no, because the end goal itself, and the nature of the problem being addressed, offers ways to distinguish between the logically possible options to determine which option is better for achieving the desired goal and therefore which option the man is more likely to choose. This kind of basic information can be used to distinguish between some options that are very different from each other and sometimes even ones that are very similar. For example, suppose all the parts to make a hot air balloon are sitting in a shelter near the edge of the gorge, perhaps mostly assembled, and with a few minutes of work the man might be able to climb into the hot air balloon and soar far away from the danger. This is a very different kind of option and it's certainly logically possible that he could try to do this, but is it just as likely that he would try to take this approach as it is that he would try to run across the bridge to the people offering him help? Not really. The nature of the problem - namely the time constraints involved in having the angry mob hot on his heels - makes it highly unlikely that he would choose an approach that he quite clearly wouldn't have time to carry out. Another logically possible option is that he could simply jump off the edge of the cliff in the hopes of landing in the narrow river near the middle of the canyon hundreds of feet below. It would be utterly stupid, but it would nonetheless be logically possible for him to attempt it. Does this mean he's just as likely to try jumping off the cliff as to try running across the steel bridge? It seems unlikely. Alternatively, it's logically possible that the man could think he's some kind of superhero, and so it's logically possible that he could just jump of the cliff thinking he'll fly away to safety. It's logically possible that he could try this, but does that mean we're warranted in thinking it's just as likely that he'll do this as anything else? I wouldn't be inclined to take that bet. But now suppose that we come back to the bridges and specify that the first steel bridge we mentioned earlier was very narrow, being only wide enough for one person, but that there was a second steel bridge a few feet further away that was quite a bit wider. Do we have any reason to think he might choose one steel bridge over the other? Well, it depends on how quickly he thinks on his feet and how many factors we think he might be taking into account. He might simply be thinking, "I need to get away", in which case it's most likely he would just take the closer, narrow bridge. But he could be thinking on a higher level that if the mob follows him across, the narrow bridge will create a bottleneck for them, making it easier for his helpers to deal with them, in which case he again would probably take the narrow bridge. But he could be thinking on still a higher level and reason that the only cause the mob would have to follow him across is if he actually gets to the other side alive, but that the narrow bridge makes him a very easy target for the guy with the bow and arrow, who will have plenty of time and opportunity to fire arrows at him in a straight line without ever even having to step on the bridge, making it almost certain that he will be hit. He might further reason that the wide bridge would give him the ability to duck and weave unpredictably as he crosses, making himself a much harder target for an arrow. And he might further note that the group of people offering him help is much larger than the mob pursuing him, and so they would probably be able to subdue the mob quite easily even without the aid of the bottleneck that would be caused by the narrow bridge. In this case, he would probably take the extra few seconds to run past the narrow bridge and cross the wider one. If we know nothing about the man and simply assume that he is of average intelligence and is also in fear, the safest bet is probably to assume he would just take the closer bridge. If neither bridge was closer, it would be fair to assume there was equal probability that he would take either bridge. In order to make a more informed determination of the probability that should be assigned to each bridge, we would need more information. For example, perhaps we had been following the chase, unobserved, for a few days. During that time, we may have witnessed the man dealing with other problems, perhaps evading traps, or maybe setting them, or overcoming obstacles in his path, or other such things. Though we don't know this man or his background, by observing his actions we may determine that he is resourceful, intelligent, level-headed, not given to panic, good at solving problems, disciplined, a strategic thinker, mechanically inclined, etc. We could reasonably infer these characteristics from the nature of the things he has done, even if we don't know anything else about him. And, if we have inferred such characteristics from the things we see he has done in the past, they could inform the relative probabilities we assign to other actions he might take in the future, like what bridge he might choose to cross in the stated scenario. In a different vein, we might consider the field of criminal profiling, where an unknown subject is inferred to have certain psychological characteristics simply on the basis of the crimes they have committed, and those characteristics are then used in weighing what possible future actions the unknown assailant is or is not likely to take as well as in determining whether or not certain other unsolved crimes are likely to have been perpetrated by the same subject. Then, of course, there's the option of positing some particular designer and determining what you might expect to find as a result of their actions. Modern science arose from the idea that both our minds and the cosmos were designed by the orderly mind of God, and so we should expect nature to demonstrate a high degree of order and operate in accord with discernible regularities, such that it would be coherent and comprehensible - and even in many cases predictable - to our minds, and therefore discoverable to us. For this reason, theists are not surprised to find the highly fine-tuned order of the universe that allows for the existence of intelligent life. Nor are they surprised to find that, by-and-large, the world of life is also quite well ordered. Were life an utterly incomprehensible jumble of organisms that rarely, if ever, displayed a discernible pattern, then they would be surprised. Of course, most of this should all be rather obvious, but your argument utterly fails to take into account the fact that the nature of a problem, goal or project places constraints on the related logically possible solutions and offers information that can be used to distinguish what types of potential solutions are better or worse than others and more or less likely to be employed by an intelligent agent in achieving the goal, solving the problem or undertaking the project. It also fails to take into account the ability to infer that certain characteristics are present in a designer based on an analysis of the things they are believed to have designed, and that this information can then be used in weighing the general likelihood that they might have produced other kinds of designs or used other kinds of design approaches. All that being said, the funny thing about your claim that I "appear to be making an awful lot of assumptions about the designer" is that I had actually only pointed out that even though you claimed it would be easy for the designer to have "completely wrecked" the ONH at any time, and that it was significant he didn't, it actually would not have been easy at all for the designer to do this, and therefore...
you are forced to try to argue that the designer in question would want to go out of its way specifically for the purpose of wrecking that signal that was naturally caused by its chosen method of distributing traits and facilitating adaptation.
That is an assumption created by comparing your claim to the facts of the situation. I then asked:
Why should we assume the designer would want to do that?
I wasn't making an assumption here. I was pointing out that we have no basis for making the assumption that the designer would want to do what would be required to "completely wreck" the statistically inferable ONH signal that would naturally be caused by the general trend of distributing traits through branching descent, which you had wrongly implied would be very easy for the designer to do at any moment. You continued:
Not only must you justify your assumptions, but the justifications must be of trillions-to-one strength, to compensate for the trillions-to-one advantage of UE in explaining the ONH.
No, they don't. And there is not a trillions-to-one advantage for UE, even if we assume that there were literally trillions of logically possible ways to approach the task. The symmetrical distribution of probabilities across all logical possibilities is silly and baseless. And, as I've said multiple times now, your entire argument that tries to identify a trillions-to-one advantage for UE based on the claim that we have no reason to think the designer would prefer to create an ONH out of the alleged trillions of other options available is entirely wrong-headed from the get-go, and for at least two more reasons in addition to the one I just mentioned: 1) Trillions of logically possible tasks or steps, even if they really existed, are not the same as trillions of logically possible discernible patterns, so in this respect we might expect life would take the form of one pattern (or possibly a few) out of a much smaller array of feasible patterns, or else that it would simply look like a random jumble with no pattern at all, which would be unexpected on an hypothesis of design; and 2) An ONH will be naturally generated as the byproduct of any general process that distributes traits and innovations through some form of branching descent. So, as I've said repeatedly, the actual question should be, “Is there any reason why a designer would prefer to use a process of differential distribution of traits through branching descent in generating the diversity of life?” I say yes, because that’s a perfectly sensible approach to solving the ‘problem’ of creating animal diversity while growing populations and also facilitating adaptation to diverse environments. If you would like to answer no, you're free to try to argue that.
You are making the mistake that, because we can’t scientifically establish the identity of the designer based on the currently available data, it is proper to think the designer would act randomly, like the roll of a die, operating without any coherent methodology, and being just as likely to remove its own complex design features from organisms as to add them, which has no intuitive plausibility.
I am not arguing that the designer must act that way. I’m simply saying that since we know absolutely nothing about the designer, we have no basis for treating any option as more likely than another.
And you are wrong. And not just wrong, but obviously wrong.
You don’t need gradual change across the board for an ONH to be inferable. What you mainly need is simply not to quickly lose high numbers of key features used for classification, though it would also be preferable to not have the genetic coding of existing features drastically changing while maintaining the same functionality, but both of these are things that one would have no problem explaining on unguided evolution if 1) organisms did not have design constraints to preserve function and limit change…
But that’s what purifying selection does. The only changes that are tolerated are near-neutral or beneficial.
I think you're confusing effect with cause. "Purifying selection" happens because organisms are made of complex, tightly-constrained, highly integrated systems. If they become deregulated or the processes intended to prevent significant changes from happening break down, things go bad for the organism and if they don't outright die then they perform more poorly than the organisms who have stayed within the constrained range of variation that the system design allows for. It certainly isn't necessary that any given process of "unguided evolution" would have recourse to something like "purifying selection", or that it would just happen to fortuitously be operating on systems that have error correction to prevent drastic change, making it very difficult to just suddenly and accidentally lose a character from a population in a very short time, which could have been very easy under different circumstances. In other words, to make the point more clear, in order to get an ONH from some kind of branching descent process, new features can be added to organisms as fast as you like, but loss of significant features must not happen quickly. Such a state of affairs is to be expected in the context of a design process, such as in software versioning, where new features are typically added wholesale from one version to the next, but existing features, while often slightly tweaked, typically remain very recognizable and are rarely removed. In living organisms, the prevention of the loss of existing features is ensured by highly sophisticated and efficient proof-reading and error-correction systems, which again make perfect sense in a design context, where, as a result of foresight, the system is intentionally endowed with sophisticated features to maintain its functional stability. However, on balance, there's no reason to expect that complex, interrelated systems would arise at all from a mindless process, much less that such a mindless process with no goals in view would endow its systems with powerful proof-reading and error-correction capabilities. So, were it not for the incredibly fortuitous nature and capabilities of the systems themselves, an evolutionary process operating in tandem with a process of branching descent would be unlikely to produce an ONH at all, since it would be far more likely that existing features would be lost quickly (and that organisms would regularly just drop dead) while new features would be added very slowly (if you assume that they could be added at all), which is precisely the opposite of the circumstances that are conducive to the general formation of an ONH. This being the case, a process of branching descent would, on balance, be far more likely to produce a general ONH structure when running on the kinds of systems that would be expected to result from intelligent design than on the kinds of systems that would be expected to result from a mindless process with no foresight and no goals in view (allowing, for the sake of argument, that such systems would arise at all).
and 2) functional genetic sequences were plentiful relative to sequence space and easy to stumble upon.
They are. See Andreas Wagner’s new book Arrival of the Fittest.
I have his book, but you seem to have missed the point. If functional genetic sequences really are plentiful relative to sequence space and really are easy to stumble upon, that would make the generation of an ONH structure less likely on "unguided evolution", since it would presumably be easy for functional genetic sequences to drastically shift through a lineage without loss of a functional character, thereby confounding attempts to match molecular phylogenies to morphological ones and to match functional stretches of DNA between presumed ancestors and descendants. Also, the easier it is for evolution to find functional sequences and dance around them without losing function, the more likely it is that highly similar characters, based on similar genes, will pop up everywhere in the supposed "Tree of Life" and then keep changing in a way that confuses presumed ancestor descendant relationships. Taken together, these phenomena really could make it quite easy to actually "completely wreck" the ONH signal and would make it far less likely that we should expect to see any kind of strong ONH signal produced by "unguided evolution", even given the process of branching descent.
However, the rapid introduction of new features would not cause a problem for inferring an ONH. That would actually help it.
Yes, if the old features remained static. Another assumption for you to justify.
There's nothing to justify. This is a standard feature of designed systems.
keiths: What you’re missing is that the infusion of complex “content” is not separable from the formation of the ONH. The unguided branching events are not recorded directly — they are inferred from the distribution of derived characters, including the complex ones. HeKS: The point is that if the designer typically worked with the general process and motif of branching inheritance,
Another unjustified assumption about the designer.
No, it's not. The only thing I'm 'assuming' is that its reasonable to expect an intelligent designer to make an intelligent design choice, and so if using branching descent for the differential distribution of traits, the generation of organismal diversity and the facilitation of environmental adaptation makes good sense from a design perspective, it would be reasonable for the designer to use it. The basic assumption that it's reasonable to expect an intelligent designer to make intelligent design choices is self-justifying. Furthermore, since I think the designer is highly intelligent and organized based on the incredibly complex and coordinated functionality of, for example, the cell, and since the designer seems to have a penchant for achieving multiple goals from single resources - as in the case of DNA, with multi-level genetic codes, alternative splicing, strings of code that carry functional meaning when read in both directions, etc. - then it makes perfect sense to me that the designer would use some form of branching descent to achieve the multiple goals I mentioned, since it would fit right in with the design style I perceive the designer to be using in the systems that directly lead me to make a design inference in the first place.
…which allows for the distribution of traits and for adaptation, then that process of diversification would cause a strong ONH pattern that would hold with high statistical significance even if the designer very regularly broke the pattern by co-opting design features from one lineage and adding them to another (though they would almost certainly need some tweaking in their new organismal environment).
You are dictating how much lateral transfer the designer is “permitted” to use. On what basis? Humans use tons of lateral transfer, and for good reason.
No, I'm not in any way dictating how much lateral transfer the designer would be permitted to use. I'm saying that, given a general trend of distributing traits and facilitating adaptation through a form of branching descent, it would require a truly gargantuan amount of randomly distributed lateral transfer of identical traits to make it impossible to infer a strong ONH signal from any statistical correlation of traits in incongruent trees. Now, could the designer have done this if he wanted to? Sure. But we have no good reason to expect the designer to do this, such that his failure to do it would in any way imply he wasn't involved in the design, production and diversification of life at all, which is what you want to argue. Furthermore, there are obvious legitimate reasons why the designer might not (and likely wouldn't) choose do this, such as if the designer had a desire to cause and preserve a large degree of diversity and disparity in forms of life, which would be drastically reduced by the type of activity that would be needed to "completely wreck" the possibility of a statistically inferable ONH. Also, within a coherent group, like a suite of software applications, lateral transfer happens far more often in closely related contexts than in distantly related or completely unrelated ones. For example, while video editing software and photo editing software have some very different capabilities, they share a very similar context in terms of manipulating the display of still images (photos or video frames), and so we're not surprised to find a significant overlap in their features, though often with some domain-specific tweaking. Photo editing software also sometimes has some overlap with word processing software, with the former letting you add text to images and the latter letting you add images to blocks of text, but the general overlap is far less significant in this case than it is between photo editing and video editing applications, as are the similarities in the available functionality related to the domains where they overlap. There is also an overlap in word processing software and code editors for programming, since both let you type text, but the latter typically lacks the suite of features for the complex formatting of text found in word processing applications and has a whole host of other functions useful to application development that word processors don't generally have. Furthermore, the more distinct applications are from each other with reference to different domains, and the more the degree of lateral transfer of functionality is determined by similarity of context, the more likely it is that you're looking at a suite of applications developed by a single source, whether it be a single person or a single company that is guiding a unified vision.
To summarize: 1) It’s easy to wreck an ONH, and humans do it all the time.
No. Not relevant to the given circumstances.
2) You’re making a slew of unjustified assumptions about the designer.
No, I'm not.
3) If you make assumptions about the designer, you need to justify them.
My assumptions are very few, highly limited, and they are justified on any unbiased measure.
4) The justifications need to be solid enough to compensate for the trillions-to-one advantage of UE in explaining the ONH.
No, your whole trillion-to-one argument is wrong-headed. HeKS
Box, Here's the funny thing. Lizzie was right. Granville's rebuttal consisted of "I may be wrong, but if I am, then I am in famous company." Introductory physics texts (As GS notes, not thermodynamics texts, interesting that) often try to introduce the idea of entropy with misleading analogies. My understanding is that more recent texts avoid this mistake. Granville's concept of "X-entropy" is fairly obviously wrong. It's the Second Law of Thermodynamics for a reason. DNA_Jock
There isn't any need to apologize to a sock puppet. Joe
@Keith #374, Thanks HeKS
HeKS #369, I passed your message on to Adapa. keith s
Because monotremes nest within mammals which nest within therapsids
In what way do mammals nest with theraspids? Please be specific or admit that you made it up. Joe
wd400:
Those are not nested, nested means one group fits within a larger supergroup.
And populations (groups) do not fit into other populations. Joe
logically_speaking: On if some traits are more important than others, or how many traits are shared between them, or both? Based on all the traits. You will also find that genetic and phenotypic data show largely consistent nested hierarchies. logically_speaking: It’s my experiment, I can set the rules. The experimental method involves varying parameters. logically_speaking: Second we do see mix and match like the duck billed platypus. The platypus exhibits primitive and derived features. logically_speaking: I never claimed it was a logical error, it is an elementary error. The claim wasn't unreasonable, and newer theories had to explain why it did seem reasonable at the time. Embryos from related taxa do resemble each other more than their developed forms. logically_speaking: Is the fact that it’s a pyramid, more important than it not being a cube, or a random hole in the floor. Regardless, it's objectively a pyramid. logically_speaking: I have been arguing against Theobald’s ONH which uses Phylogenetic cladistics. We have been very specific, and repeated our position multiple times. As for Theobald, he used two methods, one of which was inclusive. The result was substantially the same. logically_speaking: However, once again we are back to a subjective choice that will influence the outcome. Which mode of classification to use phenetic or cladistic analysis. When we say the temperature is a certain temperature, it's an objective measurement even if we are the ones to decide to measure it. Phenetic and cladistic analysis reveal substantially the same tree. There are anomalies, but that's to be expected when dealing with ancient transitions in lineages that have changed over time. logically_speaking: If we can arrange life “based on overall similarity of many characteristics without regard to evolutionary history or assumed significance of specific characters”, then evolution cannot be THE explanation for the nested hierarchies. Branching descent. logically_speaking: But unfortunately your counter example fails, as Boyle’s law is (probably) a fundamental universal constant, hense law. The counterexample works fine. We chose it because there was no ambiguity. It shows that simply because we name something after someone doesn't mean it is subjective. logically_speaking: You very well know “It’s complex, therefore design”, is NOT the design argument. Of course it is, hence IC and CSI, both of which concern what is purportedly otherwise unexplainable complexity. logically_speaking: But you don’t list all of the traits, why should I. Whales under w, bats under b. List all the traits, then form your groups. Look at blood, tissue, organs, skeleton, brains, neurons, skin, eyes, ears, lungs. Look at all of it, then form your groups. logically_speaking: What about all the traits they don’t share, why are these not important? Look at all the observable traits, then form your groups. logically_speaking: If we wrote down your classification on paper then sure whales could be closer to bats than fish, but it doesn’t mean anything. If we classify bats and whales along with other organisms, bats and whales will fit best with organisms such as dogs and squirrels than with fish. It's not that difficult. Perhaps we should start with a simpler example. Based on a study of observable traits, which one doesn't belong: cat, dog, sunflower. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ect-kgxBb4M logically_speaking: There are several ways to create such trees. Sure there are, but with biological organisms, they are largely in agreement. Having independent means of confirming the finding supports our confidence in the finding. Where they are not in agreement is of primary interest to biologists. Examples of anomalies include posited convergence, horizontal inheritance, adaptive radiation, etc. But that doesn't change the fact that when looking at observable traits, cats and dogs objectively fit best compared to sunflowers. And that when we examine many organisms they fit an objective nested hierarchy. logically_speaking: Interesting, why did you place the platypus at the end? Because monotremes nest within mammals which nest within therapsids which nest within synapsids, and so on. Zachriel
// Granville Sewell and the second law // In post #326 Keith provides two links to previous discussions at UD on the second law (2LoT). Keith claims that Granville Sewell's paper took some "shellacking", notably by Elizabeth B Liddle; aka Lizzie. In both threads (here and here) the strategy employed by Lizzie is a very simple one: Insist on a absurdly narrow interpretation of the 2LoT. IOW pretend that it can only be applied to heat and energy and deny everything else; even if that makes you look extremely foolish. I don't wish to repeat the same discussion here. However, as a summary, two typical posts:
Lizzie to Granville Sewell You seem to think that a tidy house, or a computer, has less entropy than a messy house, or a computer after it has been sat on by an elephant. It doesn’t.
Granville Sewell to Keith s & Lizzie: Certainly the first formulations of the second law, which were all about heat and energy (...). But nearly all general physics texts (thermodynamics texts, not so much, since they prefer quantifiable applications) do give examples of “entropy” increases (in the more general sense) which have nothing to do with heat or energy, such as tornados, rust, fire, glasses breaking, cars colliding, etc. Isaac Asimov, in the Smithsonian magazine, even talked about the entropy increase associated with a house becoming more messy (see my footnote 6 in my Cornell contribution). So if I am confused in applying the more general formulations of the second law to things like tornados, I am at least in good company, as nearly all general physics textbooks do this, so I think it is quite unfair to say, as KeithS does, that I would be laughed out of any physics meeting.
To those, who think that Lizzie and Keith graciously accepted the correction by Granville Sewell and moved on, I say: think again, the both of them are incorrigible. Box
Keith, On an unrelated note, I noticed this thread at TSZ where Adapa claims that I was taking pot shots at him after he was banned, when I knew he couldn't defend himself. Can you please pass on a message to him for me? (I don't feel like registering since I don't intend to participate there) Tell him I was not taking pot shots. That's not my style, and certainly not on the assumption that he was actually banned and wouldn't be able to respond. At that point it seemed to me he wasn't actually banned at all and might simply be in moderation, which meant he would ultimately have every chance to respond. Further, the timeline seemed unclear, because I was under the impression that his comments appearing in this thread were actually made after he thought he had been banned but that those comments had just been in moderation and had subsequently been let through. Perhaps I was mistaken. Of course, if he wants to go on thinking I'm a "coward" or other people want to think that by making a reference to his previous comments I was doing something "disgraceful and indefensible", he is (and they are) perfectly welcome to that opinion, but I'd rather it be clear that I'm saying I had no intention to take pot shots at someone because they weren't around to defend themselves. If I disagree with something someone says, I'm more than happy to tell them directly. HeKS
HeKS:
The latest comment I’ve been working on is WAY longer than I expected and I’m not done yet.
That's unfortunate. Why not edit it down, making just the essential points, then elaborating later if needed? You also might want to consider splitting it into multiple comments. keith s
The latest comment I've been working on is WAY longer than I expected and I'm not done yet. It will probably be up here some time tomorrow. HeKS
Wd400, In my experiment, all large metal spoons could fall into nested hierarchy arrangement number six. The spoons fit into the super group of metals, which also includes large metal knives and large metal forks. The metal fits within the further super group of size, which also contains large plastic and large wooden cutlery. Any similarity between large, medium and small sized cutlery is due to convergent evolution or convergent design. logically_speaking
Those are not nested, nested means one group fits within a larger supergroup. You the no nesting, just a line from a to c via b. wd400
Amendment to, My experiment produces 162 end nodes/species, 54 mid points/classes, ## 18 hierarchies/domains, ## And begins with the 6 ways of arranging the cutlery in(to) nested hierarchies. logically_speaking
Wd400 "Isn’t it funny how well DNA agrees with the “invented” classification of mammals". Care to site where you get that from? "And “monotremes” is only the end because it’s the parent-group to the leaf you specified". Actually zachriel specified monotremes, I asked about the platypus. You seem to be saying it's at the end because it’s at the end. The leaf is the end. "In eariler comment you seem to be confused by what it meant by nested. Your examples are ranked, not nested (there are > 10^300 nested arrangements for 162 “end nodes”, which is rather greater than 6". Nope I am not confused by nests or rankings. I'll try and help you again, The pile of cutlery contains, knives, forks and spoons. These will be classified as the functions. The materials shall be wood, plastic and metal. Finally the sizes shall be categorised as small, medium and large. Starting with the "parent-group" and ending with the "leaves". Working from the bottom up creates, 1. Material < size < function 2. Material < function < size 3. Function < size < material 4. Function < material < size 5. Size < function < material 6. Size < material < function Can you show me any other way to arrange the traits other than these 6. logically_speaking
Me_Think: AFAIK Sal Cordova is an IDist. It seems you are ridiculing your fellow IDist. So? Mung
Mung @ 360
Is this the same Salvador Cordova who deleted dissenting opinions from his threads? Oh look, there is no one who disagrees with Sal in any thread authored by Sal. Sal must be right. ID must be wrong.
AFAIK Sal Cordova is an IDist. It seems you are ridiculing your fellow IDist. Me_Think
keiths:
You can really tell that IDers are getting desperate when they resort to second law arguments. Even Sal Cordova was embarrassed by them:
Is this the same Salvador Cordova who deleted dissenting opinions from his threads? Oh look, there is no one who disagrees with Sal in any thread authored by Sal. Sal must be right. ID must be wrong. Mung
keiths:
I’m not saying that God the Designer chose it because he wanted to imitate unguided evolution. He may have chosen it for a different reason, or because he was somehow limited and had no alternative.
Why don't you just admit that in all your arguments there is only one designer and God is the designer and be done with it? Mung
keiths: We know nothing about the designer. (How many times do I have to repeat that?) Which designer or designers? Mung
keiths: Nothing about my argument assumes, or depends on, the indifference of the designer. Which designer or designers? keiths: Nothing about my argument assumes, or depends on, the omnipotence of the designer. Which designer or designers? keiths: Nothing about my argument assumes, or depends on, whether the designer does or does not like ONHs. Which designer or designers? Mung
Isn't it funny how well DNA agrees with the "invented" classification of mammals. And "monotremes" is only the end because it's the parent-group to the leaf you specified. In eariler comment you seem to be confused by what it meant by nested. Your examples are ranked, not nested (there are > 10^300 nested arrangements for 162 "end nodes", which is rather greater than 6. wd400
Wd400, The classification monotremes, is an invented class to place TWO otherwise unclassifiable animals (platypus and the spiny anteaters) into the tree. That's why it's at the end. logically_speaking
Wd400, logically_speaking: There turns out to be 6 ways of arranging the cutlery in nested hierarchies You: There are actually (2n-5)!! nested hierarchies for the cutlery, where n is the number of pieces and !! is a double factorial. My response: I see how there may be confusion. My experiment produces 162 end nodes/species, 54 mid points/classes, And begins with the 6 ways of arranging the cutlery in nested hierarchies. I hope that helps. You: If there is a point to take from your example, it’s that there is little reason to think a tree estimated from “material” will perfectly match one estimated from “size”. My response: They don't match that's the point, but neither do phylogenetic trees. Which is the REASON WHY statistical analysis is needed to provide a best fit. You: But in biology, despite absurd number of possible tree-shapes, phylogenies estimated from different genes, and different characters generally agree pretty well. My response: No they don't the more information we obtain the more difference is observed. You: That’s how descent with modification works, it’s not how special creation tends to work (of course, nothing is impossible under special creation, so we can’t exclude it) My response: What's decent with modification? A rock rolling down a hill smashing on other rocks breaking bits off it, is decent with modification. Is that what you mean? What do you mean by special creation? Are you claiming that while special creation can be used to explain everything, decent with modification can't? Can you please explain what DWM can't do? logically_speaking
Interesting, why did you place the platypus at the end? That's a very odd question. Because platypusses are nested within monotremes which are nested within mammals. Marsupials and eutherians are more closley related to each other than either are to monotremes, so monoteremes necessarily fit within mammals. wd400
Zachriel, logically_speaking: There turns out to be 6 ways of arranging the cutlery in nested hierarchies You: That’s right. But there’s only one objective nested hierarchy for mammals; mammals, amniotes, tetrapods, gnastostomes, vertebrates, craniates, chordates, bilaterian, metazoa, eukaryotes. Again based on what? On if some traits are more important than others, or how many traits are shared between them, or both? logically_speaking: These evolutionists assume that the cutlery was changed over time by the manufacturers of the cutlery, there job is to find out the order of decent. You: No, multiple nested hierarchies is characteristics of design. That’s because designer mix-and-match. Try this: Could a centaur or griffin be a memory of some actual organism? My response: First off, yes. It's my experiment, I can set the rules. Second we do see mix and match like the duck billed platypus. Thirdly, what kind of question is that? please explain your reasoning for it if you seriously want an answer. logically_speaking: You may think it’s unlikely for generations of biologists to make elementary mistakes, it still can happen, and has happened. You: Yes, it can, but is much less likely than otherwise. Einstein didn’t show that Newton was making elementary mistakes. He showed why Newton was right within the limitations of the scientific knowledge of the time, while also answering new questions that had arisen due to new observations. My response: I mostly agree with you, in that, it SHOULD be less likely. But given the history of mistakes in science in general, it shows that mistakes are very common in science. Luckily most don't get through the checks and balances, but it is inevitable that some get through the cracks. Even the great man Einstein is said to be wrong on occasion. logically_speaking: Ontogeny recapitulates phylogeny is an interesting example You: That’s not an example of a logical error, but an extrapolation that was found to be somewhat in error. My response: I never claimed it was a logical error, it is an elementary error. I have explained this before, so I'll try it in other words. Anyone can have a theory that is logically consistent and correct, however if their starting assumptions are wrong (elementary mistakes), the final results with be wrong. Haeckel's results aren't wrong because his logic is wrong, he is wrong because his starting assumptions are wrong. logically_speaking: But the designer can choose whether to make it round, square, triangular or any other shape. You: That’s right, but when we observe the ‘tomb of Cheops’, it’s objectively a pyramid, a polyhedron formed by four triangles meeting at a point connecting to a square base. My response: Is the fact that it's a pyramid, more important than it not being a cube, or a random hole in the floor. Or that it is a tomb rather than a holiday home. Or that it was for Cheops only, and not for his cat? logically_speaking: Even IF you examined all traits, you will subjectively decide based on prior assumptions that some of the traits are more important than others. You: We have been explicit that we consider all traits. phenogram, a diagram depicting taxonomic relationships among organisms based on overall similarity of many characteristics without regard to evolutionary history or assumed significance of specific characters. My response: I see now why there is a disconnect between us. I have been arguing against Theobald's ONH which uses Phylogenetic cladistics. Because this is the basis of Keith’s argument. All my previous arguments attack this mode of classification. However, once again we are back to a subjective choice that will influence the outcome. Which mode of classification to use phenetic or cladistic analysis. But let's look at phenograms. If we can arrange life "based on overall similarity of many characteristics without regard to evolutionary history or assumed significance of specific characters", then evolution cannot be THE explanation for the nested hierarchies. logically_speaking: Exept it’s not objective, that is why it is call Linnaean taxonomy. You: No. That’s just silly. It’s not named Linnaean taxonomy because it was subjective any more than Boyle’s law is named after Boyle because the law is subjective. It’s called Linnaean taxonomy because of his use of nomenclature and nested classification. His results were objective within the limitations of his methods. In other words, independent observers could agree on his groupings. My response: I was being a tiny bit humorous there. But unfortunately your counter example fails, as Boyle’s law is (probably) a fundamental universal constant, hense law. Whereas any kind of taxonomy is simply a way to classify things in some sort of logical order, based around whatever we decide is important. logically_speaking: one of the main contentions of ID towards evolutionary scientists is that there is a fundamental error in that in biology an intelligent cause is ruled out a priori. You: Yes, we understand the claim. It’s rejected by the vast majority of working biologists, and IDers have yet to publish any significant research in support of their contention. Rather, they make claims without testable entailments. It comes down to “It’s complex, therefore design.” My response: Wow talk about trying to punch below the belt. Fall of false statements. You very well know “It’s complex, therefore design”, is NOT the design argument. logically_speaking: Interestingly the whale uses echolocation, as do bats. Whales live in the water, so do fish. A whale can be classified as a fish, if a fish is classified as a creature that lives in the water. You: Heh. We classify whales under w, and bats under b. The criteria was classification according to best fit of all observable traits. You can look at the blood and distinguish whales and fish. You can look at their skeletons and see that whales are closer to bats than fish. You can look at their hearts, eyes, muscles, or hair follicles, and understand that you are cherry-picking. My response: But you don't list all of the traits, why should I. You only listed the ones that you think are important, if I am then you are cherry-picking too. What about all the traits they don't share, why are these not important? And what do you mean by "whales are closer to bats than fish" (Let's ignore that both whales and fish live in the water and bats don't)? If we wrote down your classification on paper then sure whales could be closer to bats than fish, but it doesn't mean anything. logically_speaking: “The main reason why classification is subjective is because of the underlying assumption that the more traits a thing shares with another thing, the closer it must be related”? You: We’re discussing classification based on objective criteria without regard to any underlying explanation. My response: I've saved this for last, yes it seems we have been debating over slightly different things, but as it turns out its worse for your position. Here is a great article about phylogenetic trees, it is very informative about the different methods we have been discussing, http://www.cals.ncsu.edu/course/ent425/text02/phylotrees.html A few quotes, "There are several ways to create such trees. The method chosen often depends on the distinctiveness of each taxon, the type and quality of categorical data available, and the scientist's overall philosophy toward classification". ##Spot the subjectivity## "Even under the best of circumstances, developing such a dendrogram requires a great deal of speculation because the fossil record is often fragmentary (or entirely absent)". ##We haven't even discussed fossils and the problems in classifying THEM## "In a phenogram, each branch point represents a step of increasing similarity - taxa which share the most characters (both primitive and advanced) perch next to one another in the family tree even though they do not necessarily share a common ancestor". ##Not necessarily share a common ancestor## logically_speaking: If you classify organisms by their traits please tell me where the duck billed platypus goes in your objectively specific nested hierarchy? You: Monotremes, mammals, amniotes, tetrapods, gnastostomes, vertebrates, craniates, chordates, bilaterian, metazoa, eukaryotes. My response: Interesting, why did you place the platypus at the end? Why couldn't the order be, mammals, monotremes, amniotes, tetrapods, gnastostomes, vertebrates, craniates, chordates, bilaterian, metazoa, eukaryotes. logically_speaking
Unguided evolution cannot explain the existence of HOX genes- not to beat around the bush and all. Joe
Barry Arrington writes:
Yes, and developmental biology is extremely bad news for Darwinian evolution.
That's an interesting assessment. I'm puzzled why you should think so.
Significant changes in body plans require mutations early in the development process. We know one thing about such mutations with absolute certainty: All (as in 100%, without exception) such mutations that have been observed have resulted in non-viable organisms. With respect to mutations and body plans, the ironclad rule that has been observed is: Significant mutations are not viable; viable mutations are not significant.
Absolute certainty, you say! If we're talking Hox genes here, I think you are, not to beat about the bush, wrong.
As for the rest of your comment, it is clear that your faith is very strong.
Just the facts, Barry! ;) Alicia Renard
Re Silver Asiatic in #331 Glad you appreciated my point. Silver Asiatic writes (335):
It’s not merely the appearance of these several implausible events, but they have to occur simultaneously – and they have to have this relationship in order to broadcast and receive signals – and then to code and translate and act on the signals.
E. coli bacteria have the ability to position themselves in an optimum nutrient concentration. They do this by a version of random orientation and selection - "swim in randomly chosen straight line, if things get better keep going, if things get worse randomly generate new direction and swim etc repeated". link) so there is a rudimentary awareness in the simplest of organisms. In metazoa, there are differentiated cells that form a sensory system and a nervous system and musculature for movement. We see many interesting morphological features way back in the dep Cambrian. Visual receptors are obvious, there are also antennae and surely chemoreceptors and why not sensitivity to touch and vibration. So there's plenty of time for more elaborate eyes and ears to develop from these ancestral roots.
A randomly generated broadcast of a meaningless sound – only received by organisms capable of sensing the sound, but even for them, it’s a meaningless sound. If they don’t have the capability of returning a sound, there’s no feedback in the communication loop (and the sender won’t know to send again or retain the same sound).
Animals need to locate food to sustain themselves but sexually reproducing animals also need to locate a mate if their genes are to stay in the population. Smell, sight and hearing are all very useful for prey location and predator avoidance so co-option for mate location is not a huge step. Then sexual selection can kick in to produce runaway features. It seems to me at least reasonable that language evolution in our human (and near pre_human) ancestors could have had an element of sexual selection.
Supposedly, these sounds were mindlessly and accidentally correlated with objects or events. And both sender and receiver recognized the same correlation simultaneously.
Vocal communication is widely used in the animal kingdom, especially in highly social animals. Chimps use a range of vocalisations in various social contexts.
I’ve read a few attempts to explain the evolutionary origin of information and all of them sound like Alicia Renard’s. Things just must have happened simultaneously and now we have Shakespeare and the internet.
As I said, I think a sexual display element is plausible in development of human language. The power of poetry to seduce should not be underestimated. :) Alicia Renard
AR @ 347:
development of the zygote to adult in metazoa is a continuous process of cell division and differentiation controlled by gene switches
Yes, and developmental biology is extremely bad news for Darwinian evolution. Significant changes in body plans require mutations early in the development process. We know one thing about such mutations with absolute certainty: All (as in 100%, without exception) such mutations that have been observed have resulted in non-viable organisms. With respect to mutations and body plans, the ironclad rule that has been observed is: Significant mutations are not viable; viable mutations are not significant. As for the rest of your comment, it is clear that your faith is very strong. Barry Arrington
Barry Arrington writes (331):
SA @ 331. Yes, you have to give her credit for recognizing that multiple highly-coordinated characters would have to evolve simultaneously for her scenario to work. Too many times the answer from the Darwinists is “it evolved,” when there is a rarely a single “it” that can be singled out as evolving in isolation.
I'm not sure if you are using simultaneously in a figurative sense. I would substitute "in parallel" in the case of language ability in humans.
Consider the giraffe’s neck. It would have had to combine multiple simultaneous evolution of the heart, lungs, trachea, esophagus, nervous system, etc. etc.
To a degree, but development of the zygote to adult in metazoa is a continuous process of cell division and differentiation controlled by gene switches. Where things go slightly wrong (in gigantism or dwarfism, for example) the whole organism still ends up with a proportionate amount of the required tissues, organs, blood vessels and skin. On the other hand, in any evolutionary trajectory from an ancestral population to the present population, there has to be at each generation an interbreeding, viable group of organisms that are overlappingly similar to both parents and offspring.
Now the next step. Get her to understand that not only is the suggested mechanism for the evolution of single feature implausible, but when you add on the necessary coordination among multiple features the whole scenario becomes hopeless.
This is rather pessimistic. I think exploration of the way evolutionary processes have worked to produce the diversity that we observe is far from complete but so far very productive, especially since the reinforcing input from molecular phylogenetics and the development of fast and cheap sequencing of DNA. Alicia Renard
Box: you are the one that must argue that the Earth is not a closed system. The Earth is essentially a closed system. (That wasn't true in primordial times.) Box: And what do you mean by matter cannot cross the boundary? How about spaceships going out and in, or how about comets and stuff? In the present epoch, the effects are generally negligible. We can consider them if need be. Box: This doesn’t make any sense. The second law is about probabilities. The 2nd law is not about winning the lottery or 747s in a junkyard. It's about the probability of microstates. If your concept doesn't reduce to heat laws, then it isn't thermodynamics. Box: Without an external cause for the movement on the water molecules, the chance is infinitely small – in full accord with the 2LoT. Sunlight changes what would be extremely improbable into something so common that it has a name — the monsoons. Box: Like I said ‘violates’ is not the right word; ‘overpower’ is more apt. Whatever you call it, it doesn't change the fact that nothing violates the laws of thermodynamics. Box: My guess would be diamonds. That's right. And diamonds occur naturally. In other words, the Second Law of Thermodynamics doesn't preclude order occurring in nature, even something as improbable as the precise arrangement of pure carbon in a diamond. "What? Because atoms decay in the Earth's interior, carbon atoms will spontaneously order themselves? Preposterous!" Zachriel
Zachriel,
Box (quoting): “the Earth is not an isolated system, it receives energy from the sun, and entropy can decrease in a non-isolated system, as long as it is “compensated” somehow by a comparable or greater increase outside the system.”
Zachriel: Technically, a closed system. Energy can cross the boundary, but not matter.
First, you are the one that must argue that the Earth is not a closed system. Trust me on this one, it is the only chance for your position. And what do you mean by matter cannot cross the boundary? How about spaceships going out and in, or how about comets and stuff?
Box (quoting): “According to this reasoning, the second law does not prevent scrap metal from reorganizing itself into a computer in one room, as long as two computers in the next room are rusting into scrap metal — and the door is open.”
Zachriel: There is nothing in the second law that prevents scrap metal from reorganizing into a computer as long as energy is available for work. However, it doesn’t require it either.
This doesn’t make any sense. The second law is about probabilities. As Sewell explains:
G.Sewell: The reason natural forces can turn a computer or a spaceship into rubble and not vice versa is probability: of all the possible arrangements atoms could take, only a very small percentage could add, subtract, multiply and divide real numbers, or fly astronauts to the moon and back safely.
Box (quoting): “If an increase in order is extremely improbable when a system is closed, it is still extremely improbable when the system is open, unless something is entering which makes it not extremely improbable.”
Zachriel: What is the probability of 10^46 molecules of water moving a thousand miles in the same general direction?
Without an external cause for the movement on the water molecules, the chance is infinitely small – in full accord with the 2LoT.
Zachriel: Nothing violates the laws of thermodynamics, not the lilies of the field or a supercomputer, not a rocket ship or the birth of a human baby.
Indeed. Like I said ‘violates’ is not the right word; ‘overpower’ is more apt.
Zachriel: Box, which has more thermodynamic ‘order’, a brain or an equal mass of diamond?
I don’t know. My guess would be diamonds. Diamonds are thermodynamically stable and the magnificent order in brains seems poorly described in terms of thermodynamics. Box
keith s, everything in your argument depends on your ignorance-> Your ignorance of the entailments of a nested hierarchy. Your ignorance of the entailments of gradual evolution. Your ignorance of the capabilities of unguided evolution. You are a fine example of your ilk. Nice job- how's the foot? Joe
Box, which has more thermodynamic 'order', a brain or an equal mass of diamond? Zachriel
Phinehas, I chose preference as a direct counterpart to indifference. My example shows that equal probabilities do not imply indifference, contra Box. Similar reasoning works against William's omnipotence claim and against the claim that the designer loves/hates/is indifferent to ONHs. keith s
Box (quoting): "the Earth is not an isolated system, it receives energy from the sun, and entropy can decrease in a non-isolated system, as long as it is “compensated” somehow by a comparable or greater increase outside the system." Technically, a closed system. Energy can cross the boundary, but not matter. Box (quoting): "According to this reasoning, the second law does not prevent scrap metal from reorganizing itself into a computer in one room, as long as two computers in the next room are rusting into scrap metal — and the door is open." There is nothing in the second law that prevents scrap metal from reorganizing into a computer as long as energy is available for work. However, it doesn't require it either. Box (quoting): "If an increase in order is extremely improbable when a system is closed, it is still extremely improbable when the system is open, unless something is entering which makes it not extremely improbable." What is the probability of 10^46 molecules of water moving a thousand miles in the same general direction? Nothing violates the laws of thermodynamics, not the lilies of the field or a supercomputer, not a rocket ship or the birth of a human baby. Zachriel
keiths:
I can truthfully say “there’s a 50% chance that the perpetrator prefers flying, and a 50% chance that the perpetrator prefer traveling by train.” Does that mean that the perpetrator is indifferent to the mode of transportation? Obviously not.
It is interesting that you've chosen preference to make your point. Preference is a rather arbitrary kind of thing anyway, so it makes sense that there is a sort of indifference at bottom. But when looking to engineer something, it isn't usually about preferences so much as constraints. This is no longer about whether I like vanilla or chocolate, but about whether I can reach functional goals. When discussing a rocket going to the moon, the designer may well be indifferent about whether the color of the rocket is blue or red. But there are going to be a lot of other things that an engineer cannot be indifferent about. Pretending choices about propulsion and guidance systems are analogous to random rolls of a die misses this point completely. Phinehas
Keith: In other words, you have no rebuttal but you’re hoping (or praying) that HeKS does.
No that doesn't follow at all. My post #336 is a rebuttal to your example - simply by pointing out why it is inapt. Got it? Box
Box:
But let’s wait for HeKS’ comment on this matter.
In other words, you have no rebuttal, but you're hoping (or praying) that HeKS does. Fair enough. Let's see if HeKS can rescue you. keith s
WJM,
HeKS, Well, I didn’t mean to imply that Keith was making a good argument, even given the hidden assumption of a magical, omnipotent designer. :)
Right. Didn't think so :) HeKS
Keith #334: I hope (almost pray) that you can see the connection to our ongoing debate.
I cannot see the connection, because there is none. What you need to explain is why it is prudent to compare the choices of a free agent with a random process like the role of a die. Every statistician knows one cannot do that. Your example doesn't touch this matter at all. But let's wait for HeKS' comment on this matter. Box
BA 333
Now the next step. Get her to understand that not only is the suggested mechanism for the evolution of single feature implausible, but when you add on the necessary coordination among multiple features the whole scenario becomes hopeless.
BA -- good points. It's not merely the appearance of these several implausible events, but they have to occur simultaneously - and they have to have this relationship in order to broadcast and receive signals - and then to code and translate and act on the signals. A randomly generated broadcast of a meaningless sound - only received by organisms capable of sensing the sound, but even for them, it's a meaningless sound. If they don't have the capability of returning a sound, there's no feedback in the communication loop (and the sender won't know to send again or retain the same sound). Supposedly, these sounds were mindlessly and accidentally correlated with objects or events. And both sender and receiver recognized the same correlation simultaneously. I've read a few attempts to explain the evolutionary origin of information and all of them sound like Alicia Renard's. Things just must have happened simultaneously and now we have Shakespeare and the internet. Silver Asiatic
Box, Here's an example to show why your "indifferent designer" claim is silly. Suppose I'm investigating a crime perpetrated by a lone individual. I narrow the suspects down to two, Bob and Betty, each of whom seems equally likely to have committed the crime, based on the evidence to date. Bob likes traveling by train, but Betty prefers flying. I can truthfully say "there's a 50% chance that the perpetrator prefers flying, and a 50% chance that the perpetrator prefer traveling by train." Does that mean that the perpetrator is indifferent to the mode of transportation? Obviously not. There's also a 50% chance that the perpetrator is a man, and a 50% chance that the perpetrator is a woman. Does that mean that the perpetrator is a hermaphrodite? Obviously not. I hope (almost pray) that you can see the connection to our ongoing debate. The fact that the probabilities are equal does not mean I'm assuming that the designer is indifferent. William, HeKS, Similar arguments apply to the questions of whether the designer is omnipotent and whether or not he/she/it likes/is indifferent to/hates ONHs. keith s
SA @ 331. Yes, you have to give her credit for recognizing that multiple highly-coordinated characters would have to evolve simultaneously for her scenario to work. Too many times the answer from the Darwinists is “it evolved,” when there is a rarely a single “it” that can be singled out as evolving in isolation. Consider the giraffe’s neck. It would have had to combine multiple simultaneous evolution of the heart, lungs, trachea, esophagus, nervous system, etc. etc. Now the next step. Get her to understand that not only is the suggested mechanism for the evolution of single feature implausible, but when you add on the necessary coordination among multiple features the whole scenario becomes hopeless. Barry Arrington
HeKS, Well, I didn't mean to imply that Keith was making a good argument, even given the hidden assumption of a magical, omnipotent designer. :) William J Murray
Alicia Renard 248
I doubt anyone who thinks evolutionary processes were at work in the development of human language doubts humans are purposeful beings. But the prerequisites for language, the right sensory apparatus, sound-generating equipment, sufficient brain capacity to manage the processing and muscular control required could not have come about by human intent to speak. The whole panoply must have co-evolved.
You offer an interesting point of view. I can see that you recognize the problems involved. Your solution, in the bolded text, is informative - at least I can see how you have reconciled the problem (for yourself) with evolutionary ideas. Silver Asiatic
UDers, Nothing about my argument assumes, or depends on, the indifference of the designer. Nothing about my argument assumes, or depends on, the omnipotence of the designer. Nothing about my argument assumes, or depends on, whether the designer does or does not like ONHs. Reread this comment. More than once, if necessary. keith s
WJM and Box,
WJM: Keith’s responses make sense if you assume Keith is thinking about a magically omnipotent designer – THEN, of course, any imaginable possibility is an actual possibility for the designer.
WJM, I agree with everything you said in your comment, but I would argue over this point. Keith's arguments and responses don't even make sense if you assume the designer is omnipotent ... at least not in terms of the part where he tries to argue the designer would need to really like ONHs to explain what we see. You need to at least add the further assumption that the designer directly instantiated the entire ONH rather than allowing that the ONH was simply the natural byproduct of the process the designer used to distribute traits to subsequent generations and facilitate organismal adaptation, namely, branching descent with primarily vertical inheritance of constrained variability in characters. In other words, in trying to make an argument on the basis of the existence of an ONH (and a very imperfect ONH where the signal is determined by statistical correlation between incongruent trees rather than a single absolute ONH based on the analysis of all available characters), Keith is bypassing the process that creates the general ONH structure and asking if there is reason to believe the designer would prefer to use the ONH structure itself rather than asking if there is a reason to believe the designer would prefer to use the process that happens to generate one as a byproduct. HeKS
Keith #326: (... ) shellacking that Granville Sewell’s 2LoT paper took (... ) as Lizzie explained
Hahaha! "As Lizzie explained", get real Keith. If I were to name one person who has produced more nonsense at UD than you, it would be Lizzie - without any doubt. Box
Zachriel,
Box: UE (unguided evolution) does not predict ONH (objective nested hierarchy of lifeforms), because when we reduce UE to natural forces, it becomes clear that it can predict nothing but an increase of entropy – IOW disorder, chaos, failure and death.
Zachriel: That’s nonsense. The Earth has been bathed in highly energetic photons for billions of years. Whether cows lowing in the field, or cars on the highway, nothing violates the laws of thermodynamics.
Box: Under materialism an organism is nothing but a bag of chemicals. Given the the second law of thermodynamics (2LoT) we expect a regular increase of entropy (more and more disorder/chaos) in a bag of chemicals.
Zachriel: Um, no. The bag is not isolated, but receives energy from external sources. There is nothing in living processes that violates the laws of thermodynamics.
Zachriel, I give the floor to Granville Sewell. Please pay close attention and learn something:
Anyone who has made such an argument is familiar with the standard reply: the Earth is not an isolated system, it receives energy from the sun, and entropy can decrease in a non-isolated system, as long as it is “compensated” somehow by a comparable or greater increase outside the system. The “compensation” counter-argument was produced by people who generalized the model equation for isolated systems, but forgot to generalize the equation for non-isolated systems. Of course the whole idea of compensation, whether by distant or nearby events, makes no sense logically: an extremely improbable event is not rendered less improbable simply by the occurrence of “compensating” events elsewhere. According to this reasoning, the second law does not prevent scrap metal from reorganizing itself into a computer in one room, as long as two computers in the next room are rusting into scrap metal — and the door is open. The reason natural forces can turn a computer or a spaceship into rubble and not vice versa is probability: of all the possible arrangements atoms could take, only a very small percentage could add, subtract, multiply and divide real numbers, or fly astronauts to the moon and back safely. If an increase in order is extremely improbable when a system is closed, it is still extremely improbable when the system is open, unless something is entering which makes it not extremely improbable. Order can increase in an open system, not because the laws of probability are suspended when the door is open, but simply because order may walk in through the door.... If we found evidence that DNA, auto parts, computer chips, and books entered through the Earth’s atmosphere at some time in the past, then perhaps the appearance of humans, cars, computers, and encyclopedias on a previously barren planet could be explained without postulating a violation of the second law here.... But if all we see entering is radiation and meteorite fragments, it seems clear that what is entering through the boundary cannot explain the increase in order observed here. I imagine visiting the Earth when it was young and returning now to find highways with automobiles on them, airports with jet airplanes, and tall buildings full of complicated equipment, such as televisions, telephones and computers. Then I imagine the construction of a gigantic computer model which starts with the initial conditions on Earth 4 billion years ago and tries to simulate the effects that the four known forces of physics would have on every atom and every subatomic particle on our planet. If we ran such a simulation out to the present day, would it predict that the basic forces of Nature would reorganize the basic particles of Nature into libraries full of encyclopedias, science texts and novels, nuclear power plants, aircraft carriers with supersonic jets parked on deck, and computers connected to laser printers, CRTs and keyboards? If we graphically displayed the positions of the atoms at the end of the simulation, would we find that cars and trucks had formed, or that supercomputers had arisen? Certainly we would not, and I do not believe that adding sunlight to the model would help much.
Box
Box, Also check out the shellacking that Granville Sewell's 2LoT paper took on these two threads: Nick Matzke – Book Burner? Where is the difference here? Here is a summary:
Timaeus, Scientific papers are judged by their contents. The contents of Granville’s paper are awful. Based on those contents, and using Granville’s own words, I have shown that Granville: 1. Mistakenly asserts that “the increase in order which has occurred on Earth seems to violate the underlying principle behind the second law of thermodynamics, in a spectacular way.” 2. Titles his paper Entropy, Evolution and Open Systems without realizing that the second law is actually irrelevant to his improbability argument, since it is not violated by evolution. 3. Misunderstands the compensation argument and incorrectly rejects it. 4. Fails to understand that the compensation argument is a direct consequence of the second law, and that by rejecting it he is rejecting the second law itself! 5. Fails to realize that if the compensation argument were invalid, as he claims, then plants would violate the second law whenever their entropy decreased. 6. Asserts, with no evidence, that physics alone cannot explain the appearance of complex artifacts on Earth. 7. Offers, as evidence for the above, a thought experiment involving a simulation he can neither run nor analyze. 8. Declares, despite being unable to run or analyze the simulation, that he is “certain” of the outcome, and that it supports his thesis. 9. Confuses negentropy with complexity, as Lizzie explained. 10. Conflates entropy with disorder, as Lizzie explained. Granville was unable to defend his paper, so he bailed out of the thread. You are now retreating also — probably a wise move. It remains to be seen what Eric and CS3 will do. If Lizzie and I are able to expose egregious faults in Granville’s paper, using his own words, and none of you are capable of defending it, then how can you claim that his paper was good science that deserved to be accepted by the BI organizers? By accepting Granville’s paper, the organizers showed that the BI was not a serious scientific conference. Springer did the right thing in refusing to publish.
keith s
Do you want to know what is impossible under Intelligent Design? Living organisms without CSI/ FSC. Joe
Linnaeus was searching for the Created Kind and Linnean taxonomy is derived from that search. Linnean Taxonomy doesn't have anything to do with branching descent. Linnean Taxonomy has everything to do with a common design. Joe
But there’s only one objective nested hierarchy for mammals; mammals, amniotes, tetrapods, gnastostomes, vertebrates, craniates, chordates, bilaterian, metazoa, eukaryotes.
And that nested hierarchy doesn't have anything to do with branching descent. Nice own goal there Zacho. Joe
You know evos are getting desperate when they ignore or misrepresent all refutations of their ridiculous arguments. Joe
Keith. >Not exactly. There doesn’t have to be a consistent motif. A designer could change motifs or go with a more free-form approach. Fair enough. Or he can stick to it and be consistent like most anything else in nature. Next. >The point is that whether it is intentional or not, he ends up mimicking what unguided evolution would produce, because the ONH is exactly what UE predicts out of trillions of possibilities. But once again, you have no WAY of knowing it IS mimicking UNGUIDED evolution since you don't know it IS unguided. This is what we are trying to cover. Whether it is or isn't. So you can't start of with that a prior. That is where your circular argument beings. The only question relevant to you is: Since we observe ONH, is it most likely guided or unguided. That's it. It's not: ONH is real. Unguided Evolution is real. Therefore please justify why a God would use a process that mimics unguided evolution. >You have to justify the assumption that God would produce an ONH. If you assume it without justification, you are committing the Rain Fairy fallacy. Do I have to justify anything ELSE God has produced? Again, for arguments sake if you come to some odd conclusion that there is a God, by definition you would agree he had to create SOMETHING. Whatever that something IS is irrelevant since he would NEED to create is some manner or not. There is no Rain Fairy fallacy here. What you are actually doing is committing the fallacy fallacy. (or something close to that). >No, because we already know that mutation rates are slow, that inheritance is predominantly vertical, that selection and drift are real, and that microevolution can proceed without guidance. We also know that if those things are responsible for macroevolution as well as microevolution, then an ONH will result. And how would you test something to be guided or unguided? Doesn't this all assume we know how a God would guide anything? Where is the data to compare? Even you said God CAN restrict himself (for whatever reason) to use ONH. >In other words, the ONH is a prediction of unguided evolution. You are just begging the question once again. Is there any reason why, if the system was different (out of the trillions of other options being the case), a different theory would not have predicted that too? Probably. Therefore you would have been begging the question there too. >The Rain Fairy et al do apply, because the logic is the same. The logic can only be the same if we are talking about the same systems. We have no clue as to weather being 0% unguided or weather being a tool to a diety in certain instances. No clue. And therefore I return to what I have been saying "I can not prove scientifically that evolution is guided (I know ID disagrees) but the corollary is equally true against Keith." HD
Box:
Under materialism an organism is nothing but a bag of chemicals. Given the the second law of thermodynamics (2LoT) we expect a regular increase of entropy (more and more disorder/chaos) in a bag of chemicals. This is not what we see. What we see instead is a force that ‘defies the 2LoT’* – until the moment of “death” (admittedly a meaningless term under materialism).
You can really tell that IDers are getting desperate when they resort to second law arguments. Even Sal Cordova was embarrassed by them: 2nd Law of Thermodynamics — an argument Creationists and ID Proponents should NOT use If even Salvador "Darwin beat puppies!" Cordova turns up his nose at your argument, you know you're scraping the bottom of the barrel. keith s
logically_speaking: There turns out to be 6 ways of arranging the cutlery in nested hierarchies
There are actually (2n-5)!! nested hierarchies for the cutlery, where n is the number of pieces and !! is a double factorial. If there is a point to take from your example, it's that there is little reason to think a tree estimated from "material" will perfectly match one estimated from "size". But in biology, despite absurd number of possible tree-shapes, phylogenies estimated from different genes, and different characters generally agree pretty well. That's how descent with modification works, it's not how special creation tends to work (of course, nothing is impossible under special creation, so we can't exclude it) wd400
logically_speaking: There turns out to be 6 ways of arranging the cutlery in nested hierarchies That's right. But there's only one objective nested hierarchy for mammals; mammals, amniotes, tetrapods, gnastostomes, vertebrates, craniates, chordates, bilaterian, metazoa, eukaryotes. logically_speaking: These evolutionists assume that the cutlery was changed over time by the manufacturers of the cutlery, there job is to find out the order of decent. No, multiple nested hierarchies is characteristics of design. That's because designer mix-and-match. Try this: Could a centaur or griffin be a memory of some actual organism? logically_speaking: You may think it’s unlikely for generations of biologists to make elementary mistakes, it still can happen, and has happened. Yes, it can, but is much less likely than otherwise. Einstein didn't show that Newton was making elementary mistakes. He showed why Newton was right within the limitations of the scientific knowledge of the time, while also answering new questions that had arisen due to new observations. logically_speaking: Ontogeny recapitulates phylogeny is an interesting example That's not an example of a logical error, but an extrapolation that was found to be somewhat in error. logically_speaking: But the designer can choose whether to make it round, square, triangular or any other shape. That's right, but when we observe the 'tomb of Cheops', it's objectively a pyramid, a polyhedron formed by four triangles meeting at a point connecting to a square base. logically_speaking: Even IF you examined all traits, you will subjectively decide based on prior assumptions that some of the traits are more important than others. We have been explicit that we consider all traits. phenogram, a diagram depicting taxonomic relationships among organisms based on overall similarity of many characteristics without regard to evolutionary history or assumed significance of specific characters logically_speaking: Exept it’s not objective, that is why it is call Linnaean taxonomy. No. That's just silly. It's not named Linnaean taxonomy because it was subjective any more than Boyle's law is named after Boyle because the law is subjective. It's called Linnaean taxonomy because of his use of nomenclature and nested classification. His results were objective within the limitations of his methods. In other words, independent observers could agree on his groupings. logically_speaking: one of the main contentions of ID towards evolutionary scientists is that there is a fundamental error in that in biology an intelligent cause is ruled out a priori. Yes, we understand the claim. It's rejected by the vast majority of working biologists, and IDers have yet to publish any significant research in support of their contention. Rather, they make claims without testable entailments. It comes down to "It's complex, therefore design." logically_speaking: Interestingly the whale uses echolocation, as do bats. Whales live in the water, so do fish. A whale can be classified as a fish, if a fish is classified as a creature that lives in the water. Heh. We classify whales under w, and bats under b. The criteria was classification according to best fit of all observable traits. You can look at the blood and distinguish whales and fish. You can look at their skeletons and see that whales are closer to bats than fish. You can look at their hearts, eyes, muscles, or hair follicles, and understand that you are cherry-picking. logically_speaking: Again appealing to authority. No, referencing objective criteria. logically_speaking: “The main reason why classification is subjective is because of the underlying assumption that the more traits a thing shares with another thing, the closer it must be related”? We're discussing classification based on objective criteria without regard to any underlying explanation. logically_speaking: If you classify organisms by their traits please tell me where the duck billed platypus goes in your objectively specific nested hierarchy? Monotremes, mammals, amniotes, tetrapods, gnastostomes, vertebrates, craniates, chordates, bilaterian, metazoa, eukaryotes. Zachriel
Zachriel: And the Sun defies gravitational collapse. The Earth’s atmosphere helps the surface defy the entropy of a cold universe. Phinehas: And if you hadn’t snipped the next sentence from your quote, everyone could have seen why your examples are missing the point. Phinehas: Life defies the tendency toward chaos and disorder similar to how a rocket defies gravity. Neither can be explained in purely materialistic terms. As our examples show, it isn't 'defiance' that is crucial to your distinction. Rather, you point to something artificial and say it can't be explained in purely materialistic terms. We presume you mean even in principle, but that's something that's not demonstrable. Phinehas: And, certainly, that intelligent intervention might result in an objective nested hierarchy is not a million-to-one proposition. Nonetheless, branching descent is strongly supported. Silver Asiatic: I’d like to hear the evolutionary story about the origin of human language through a process that did not involve design or intent (human intelligence). There is no overarching design in the origin of languages. They largely evolve by drift from older languages. While people may introduce a new word or prefer a new pronunciation of an old word, it is without a view to the overall design of the language. If a monk invents the letter-j to solve a problem with double-letter i's, that doesn't mean the monk was intending to restructure the language. It's like preferential attachment, a local solution inadvertently affecting the global network. This related to the ambiguity concerning what is meant by design. William J. Murray: In cases where ID agrees that natural forces are shown to be sufficient, ID is satisfied natural forces are the better explanation (orbits of the planets, weather patterns, the pattern of salt falling from a shaker). You still misunderstand the argument. The problem is when design is inserted into purported gaps in scientific knowledge. Have you ever calculated the CSI of planetary orbits from a Medieval perspective? The most complex devices ever constructed until the modern era were for predicting the planets. If it takes the greatest scholars and technicians to emulate the movements of the planets, it is clear it must take a vast intelligence to keep them in their orbits. Box: UE (unguided evolution) does not predict ONH (objective nested hierarchy of lifeforms), because when we reduce UE to natural forces, it becomes clear that it can predict nothing but an increase of entropy – IOW disorder, chaos, failure and death. That's nonsense. The Earth has been bathed in highly energetic photons for billions of years. Whether cows lowing in the field, or cars on the highway, nothing violates the laws of thermodynamics. Box: Given the the second law of thermodynamics (2LoT) we expect a regular increase of entropy (more and more disorder/chaos) in a bag of chemicals. Um, no. The bag is not isolated, but receives energy from external sources. There is nothing in living processes that violates the laws of thermodynamics. Which has more thermodynamic 'order', a brain or an equal mass of diamonds? Zachriel
Zachriel, logically_speaking: I can only conclude that you concede or agree with the points you don’t respond to, such as the tree of life uses circular reasoning. You: We responded to your “circular reasoning” argument by pointing out how unlikely it is that generations of biologists have made such an elementary mistake. My response: You may think it's unlikely for generations of biologists to make elementary mistakes, it still can happen, and has happened. Ontogeny recapitulates phylogeny is an interesting example, even though Haeckel's theory is discredited today, his faked embryo drawings and similar pictures still appear in modern day textbooks. logically_speaking: Indeed, I maintain that there really is no such thing as a true objective nested hierarchy. Infact even if the designer had made life that showed anthing like a ONH then it still would be subjective, because the designer chose it to be that way. You: Um, no. If the designer makes something round, it is objectively round. It has nothing to do with the intentions of the designer. My response: But the designer can choose whether to make it round, square, triangular or any other shape. logically_speaking: Again concensus doesn’t make objective. You: We didn’t point to consensus, but an examination of all traits, not just some. This was covered by Darwin in 1859. You need to keep up. My response: I said this is becoming a case of repetition. Lets try again. Even IF you examined all traits, you will subjectively decide based on prior assumptions that some of the traits are more important than others. For example breasts over eyes. logically_speaking: He did so without any evolutionary assumptions. What does that tell you? You: That it’s objective and not dependent on the particular observer or explanatory theory. My response: Exept it's not objective, that is why it is call Linnaean taxonomy. logically_speaking: Your response just seems to be an appeal to authority, are you suggesting that these people are infallible and don’t make mistakes or sometimes follow the crowd? You: It’s an appeal to authority. Sure people make mistakes, but scientists rarely make such fundamental errors in their own specialties, especially over generations. My response: But you forget, one of the main contentions of ID towards evolutionary scientists is that there is a fundamental error in that in biology an intelligent cause is ruled out a priori. So if the starting assumptions are wrong the results are more likely to also be wrong, but because of the worldview that says the starting assumptions must be right, nobody sees the error. logically_speaking: I have done it in my ONH expirement. You: The only experiment we noticed was your showing multiple classifications for cutlery, followed by your realization that there is a single correct classification for mammals; mammals, amniotes, tetrapods, gnastostomes, vertebrates, craniates, chordates, bilaterian, metazoa, eukaryotes. My response: My posts got muddled up, I have posted my experiment separately. Plus trying to claim I have come to the realisation that there is a single correct classification for mammals etc is false. logically_speaking: The classification system is fine for the most part, but there are problems whichever methods you choose. You: You haven’t provided another classification scheme, except for your abortive bats are birds classification. In other words, there is only one reasonable way to classify the vast majority of organisms. Secondly My response: Firstly I have not aborted anything, you really should stop jumping to conclusions about other people's thoughts and intentions. Secondly, how many classification schemes will convince you that they are subjective? Interestingly the whale uses echolocation, as do bats. Whales live in the water, so do fish. A whale can be classified as a fish, if a fish is classified as a creature that lives in the water. Because I have decided echolocation is more important than breasts or living in water, I classify bats and whales as echolites. All other similarities between any other creature was just convergent evolution or design. logically_speaking: I have no problem with calling a bat a mammal, I simply understand that it is a large consensus led subjective nested hierarchy, that I happen to agree with. You: Anyone who has studied the subject puts bats with mammals because that is the only rational classification possible when you look at all the observable traits. That’s what we mean by objective. My response: Again appealing to authority. Rational things still depend on starting assumptions. If you start with faulty assumptions, the logic you use can be perfect, but the results will still be wrong. You seem to not actually know what objective means at all. logically_speaking: The main reason why classification is subjective is because of the underlying assumption that the more traits a thing shares with another thing, the closer it must be related. You: That’s called the criteria. If we classify organisms by their traits, they objectively fall into a specific nested hierarchy. My response: Regardless of what it's called are you agreeing with me that, "The main reason why classification is subjective is because of the underlying assumption that the more traits a thing shares with another thing, the closer it must be related"? If you classify organisms by their traits please tell me where the duck billed platypus goes in your objectively specific nested hierarchy? logically_speaking
keiths:
Regarding William’s list of “refutations” in #162: Each one has already been rebutted, except for #9, which I will handle below.
Unless you are using "rebutted" in a very broad way, this news is quite incredible (in every sense of the word). Would you be so kind as to point out these rebuttals? Maybe you could take the list point-by-point so that we could see all of your rebuttals in one place. Phinehas
WJM:
It’s almost like a complete failure to honestly and vigorously challenge one’s own views.
Exactly. Isn't it ironic that at TSZ, you are likely to run into some of the lest skeptical people you will ever find anywhere? Phinehas
The difference between the theory of gravity and Darwinism is that an astronomer has a predictive, mathematical model that can demonstrate natural forces to be sufficient explanations for the path of an object around the Earth, while Darwinists are still scrambling around trying to find a model that renders abiogenesis and the rise of biocomplexity remotely plausible. William J Murray
The objective nested hierarchy test. This is my "bomb" to Keiths "bomb". Let’s make things really easy and basic. The pile of cutlery contains, knives, forks and spoons. These will be classified as the functions. The materials shall be wood, plastic and metal. Finally the sizes shall be categorised as small, medium and large. I mention all this so that you may repeat the experiment if you wish. I am concentrating on the end product here and presenting a very simple table of the results. Now because of how basic the nested hierarchies can be we are able to see ALL of the possible outcomes. There turns out to be 6 ways of arranging the cutlery in nested hierarchies, these are from the bottom up; 1. Material < size < function 2. Material < function < size 3. Function < size < material 4. Function < material < size 5. Size < function < material 6. Size < material < function Because we can see ALL of the trees, statistical analysis will be worthless because in this case all of the nests are equally "correct". However lets now throw some evolutionists in to the experiment. These evolutionists assume that the cutlery was changed over time by the manufacturers of the cutlery, there job is to find out the order of decent. (This is the assumption of common decent) The evolutionists decide that because the functions of the cutlery are what determines how they are used today, must mean that function should be placed at the ends of each tree. (This is the subjective consensus of which traits are more important than others) Also there are only 4 scientists that can only do one tree each. (This represents the limitations of resources in that not ALL possibilities can be accounted for in the history of life) Now the nests that the evolutionists make are these; 1. Material < size < function 2. Material < function < size 3. Function < size < material 4. Size < material < function As they have agreed that function should be placed at the ends of the trees, they come to the conclusion that some of the trees must be in error. Therefore they must use statistical analysis to provide the "best fit". The statistical analysis provides the best fit objective nested hierarchy as; Material < size < function. As must be obvious, this so called ONH is an illusion. Even though this example is very basic and I have deliberately limited certain things, the principles, reasoning and problems behind this expirement can be scaled up to the biological ONH. One thing is certain, for any statistical analysis to be of any value for "best fit", you must first know ALL of the possibilities available, not mearly most. Unfortunately for the objective nested hierarchy of life, subjectivity has sneaked in through the back door and the front door, and even through windows. One of the main reasons why we can generate a "fake" objective nested hierarchy on the tree of life, is that as Keith acknowledges, there are literally trillions of possibilities of how life developed. It is impossible to take all the possible outcomes into consideration when doing the statistical analysis on the tree of life. logically_speaking
WJM: Life is a 2LoT implausibility
I couldn't agree more. - BTW it would look great on a t-shirt. Box
WJM: Keith’s responses make sense if you assume Keith is thinking about a magically omnipotent designer – THEN, of course, any imaginable possibility is an actual possibility for the designer.
And we are right to counter Keith by pointing out that ID doesn't posit such an omnipotent designer. However I can imagine that Keith and some theists may regard the ID response to be a 'convenient' way out - valid or not. That's why I believe it to be important to point out that in order to morph the designer into a trillion-sided die - as Keith does - more unsupported assumptions have to be added to the mix. In effect Keith has to strip the designer of personhood and add the unsupported assumption of a designer who is totally indifferent about the ordering of life - as indifferent as a trillion-sided die - see #161. I'm glad to read HeKS' announcement (see post #292) to write about this subject. Box
Andre @285
The whole PCD debate highlights that, distortion of what I’ve posted, ignoring tactics, false accusations and lastly flat out science denial.
I might say the same thing, but I’m not given to whining. I really haven’t been ignoring you, Andre: I guess you missed my post at 160. Do take a look. :) DNA_Jock
Box, That entropy argument is the bomb :) However, I think "overpowers the 2LoT is still a phrase that Darwinist will insist on misconstruing. I suggest: abiogenesis and the increase of stable, self-regulating biocomplexity by known natural forces is entropy-implausible. Life is a 2LoT implausibility. Yes, it's possible, but scientifically implausible and as such is not a predictable outcome and so is not a good scientific theory. The only agency we see that consistently generates such entropy-implausible outcomes is intelligent design. William J Murray
HeKS @234: Well said. Rest assured, the pattern of Keith's arguments has been observed and commented on before, even by his compatriots at TSZ (if you don't give Keith an IDist to target, he soon turns on others with this same debate style. I've debated keith many times. Virtually all of keith's arguments involve hidden or unsupportable assumptions that he expects to remain unchallenged. I don't think he does this consciously beause he is completely unprepared for the challenge and then insists his assumption is valid - much like he has done here about several different things. When you point out the problems with keith's arguments, he starts turning more and more to reiteration, out-of-context responses, narrative and ridicule. There's little doubt, IMO, that keith simply thought his "trillions of possibilities for the designer" would not be challenged because Keith formulated that argument to go against a certain kind of theistic view, which is a sort of "magical omnipotent god" perspective. Anyone with this perspective probably wouldn't even think to challenge Keith's "trillions" assumption because they would assume the same thing: that the magically omnipotent designer could just pop living creatures up willy-nilly wherever and whenever he wanted to, with whatever traits anyone could imagine - which is why Keith doesen't hesitate to assign whatever he can imagine as an actual possibility available to the putative designer. Keith's responses make sense if you assume Keith is thinking about a magically omnipotent desginer - THEN, of course, any imaginable possibility is an actual possibility for the designer. Also, I've noticed that Keith and others like him seem unable to hypothesize from someone else's point of view. This is apparent in the comparative examples he, Zachriel and Adapa think are unquestionably appropriate and, to them, reveal the ID position to be ridiculous (Rain Fairy, orbital Angels, etc.). From their perspective, it seems, there is no scientific difference between the orbits of planets and what goes on in a cell, as if natural laws have been not only been shown to be causally adequate, but shown to mathematically predict (like the orbits of the planets) the advent of life and the rise of biocomplexity. Their ridiculing examples demonstrate this believed equivalence, as if it is tantamount to stupidity or insanity to even ask for support that unguided forces are sufficient in the case of biocomplexity. If one asked for a demonstration that gravity and other involved natural forces were adequate explanations for the path of an object around a planet, one could easily do so by plugging in the mathematical equations that describe the predictable patterns generated by these interacting forces. If these predictions fail to predict the path, something is wrong with the equations or there is another force acting on the object. Given certain kinds of paths, it may become necessary to add an intelligent causal agency to list of causal factors - whether one refers to angels, an intelligent pilot, or some kind of automated maneuvering system. Where is the natural-law formulaic predictive model for abiogenesis or the development of diverse biocomplexity? Astronomers and weathermen have such metrics that are used for predictive models that they can use if challenged that some phenomena is natural or not. Where is the naturalism/darwinism model? But, it seems that Keith et al cannot even step outside of their own perspective, put themselves in the shoes of an IDist (outside of cartoonish tropes and caricatures) and honestly ask themselves - how is abiogenesis and evolutionary naturalism demonstrated in the same way most orbital pathways are demonstrated natural? Keith is wrong when he claims that astronomers also "assume" that the pathways of objects around planets are natural. Astronomers do not just assume orbital paths are adequately explained by natural forces; they can conclusively, scientifically demonstrate it. Keith et al have already admitted they can only assume "unguided evolution" sufficient to the task of explaining biocomplexity. Yet, they draw an equivalence between an assumption of "sufficiently explained via unguided forces" in biology, and a scientifically conclusive demonstration of "sufficiently epxplained via unguided forces" in astronomy. Does keith really think that no astronomer could tell the difference between a natural path of an object in space and what appeared to be an intelligent maneuvering of an object in space or around the planet? It's almost like a complete failure to honestly and vigorously challenge one's own views. One of the ways I change my views is by vigorously arguing against them internally to see where my views are weak or unsupportable. Keith, Zachariel, AR, LH and Adapa seem to blindly blunder into making the most painfully erroneous and irrational statements as if they have never mentally explored the territory via internal debate or consideration. William J Murray
Keith, I would like to submit to the long list of refutations of your "argument" the following: ** UE does not predict an ONH but chaos and death instead ** UE (unguided evolution) does not predict ONH (objective nested hierarchy of lifeforms), because when we reduce UE to natural forces, it becomes clear that it can predict nothing but an increase of entropy - IOW disorder, chaos, failure and death. Under materialism an organism is nothing but a bag of chemicals. Given the the second law of thermodynamics (2LoT) we expect a regular increase of entropy (more and more disorder/chaos) in a bag of chemicals. This is not what we see. What we see instead is a force that 'defies the 2LoT'* - until the moment of "death" (admittedly a meaningless term under materialism). Random mutations and natural selection are either unhelpful or meaningless wrt order. Conclusion: Natural forces - which constitute UE - are inadequate to explain life and its continued existence and therefor inadequate to explain / predict ONH. - *'defies the 2LoT' - n.b. does NOT mean 'violates the 2LoT' or 'discontinues the 2LoT', but rather 'overpowers the 2LoT'. Box
Keith said:
The Rain Fairy et al do apply, because the logic is the same.
As has been pointed out: Keith claims natural processes can produce X (biological diversity), and so ID is unnecessary. That is the very point ID disputes; that specific claim about that particular thing. ID asks Keith to scientifically support his claim that natural processes can produce X (biodiversity) specifically. In supposed response to that request, Keith points to things A,B, and C that ID does not dispute, indeed, agrees have been adequately, scientifically explained by natural forces, and then bizarrely claim that we are being inconsistent. By his argument, ID cannot challenge **anything** anyone claims is adequately caused by natural forces simply because ID doesn't challenge all such claims. In cases where ID agrees that natural forces are shown to be sufficient, ID is satisfied natural forces are the better explanation (orbits of the planets, weather patterns, the pattern of salt falling from a shaker). Essentially, Keith is saying he doesn't have to support his assertion that natural forces can sufficiently explain biodiversity because ID agrees that natural forces can adequately explain other things. Again, Keith is apparently immune to understanding where his logic went off the rails here. William J Murray
No, because we already know that mutation rates are slow, that inheritance is predominantly vertical, that selection and drift are real, and that microevolution can proceed without guidance.
We don't know that microevolution can occur without guidance. Joe
The point is that whether it is intentional or not, he ends up mimicking what unguided evolution would produce, because the ONH is exactly what UE predicts out of trillions of possibilities.
Seeing that unguided evolution has proven to impotent it is easy to see that keith s is either deluded or lying. Joe
Barry asked for a “science bomb” that would “destroy my naive belief in ID.”
And no one can deliver such a thing. Go figure... Joe
Keith said:
Again, it is not because I’m assuming the designer is indiffiernt. The probabilities are equal simply because we have no reason for making them unequal.
Once again, the possibilities keith is attempting to use are not known possibilities of any putative, available and adequate designer to implement, so they say nothing at all about the probability of any designer to implement any of them. What he is talking about are re-configurations of the pattern of living organisms on on earth Keith imagines possible, nothing more, which he then simply assigns to a designer without warrant. Keith is apparently immune to this simple correction of his erroneous logic. William J Murray
drc466 writes:
1) Neither “Star” nor “Sailor” convey the meaning “Star Sailor”. While the parts already existed with different meanings, only intelligent design (a person) could put the two together into a single unit to convey a heretofore unused and unneeded concept – a person who moves among the stars.
Because you added the qualifier "a person" to the "intelligent design", I find this statement perfectly in accordance with my own view. Of course language development needs the sort of intelligence (capacity to learn etc - thanks Barry!) that human beings possess and likely their ancestors possessed indistinguishably hundreds of thousands of years ago.
2) If we were to accept that joining or modifying existing words to create new words with new meanings didn’t indicate design, by analogy combining pre-existing objects to create new objects with new function would also not indicate design – to wit, you could claim that a wheelbarrow was not designed, because after all the wheel, the rod, and the basket already existed.
If you had included the "a person" qualifier, I would again be in agreement. But in fact language often seems to change in much the same way that evolutionary processes are postulated to occur. Words and phrases catch on and become popular, some die out, meanings change over time. Regarding your wheelbarrow analogy, I wonder if it was invented more than once? Interestingly, historical research into the origin/s of wheelbarrows is hampered by there being no common terminology for a "wheelbarrow" until long after their coming into use. Alicia Renard
From "refutation" #9 on William's list:
9. Keith made the wrong kind of argument altogether. The argument posted here was in response to Barry Arrington’s challenge for a “science bomb” that would demonstrate natural forces up to the task of generating CSI.
No, and you can verify that by simply reading the OP. Why are you so undisciplined, William? Do the homework yourself. Barry asked for a "science bomb" that would "destroy my naive belief in ID." I can't control his reaction, of course, but I did provide him with a "science bomb" that ought to destroy his naive belief in ID. A month later, and IDers are still trying to defuse it. keith s
Regarding William's list of "refutations" in #162: Each one has already been rebutted, except for #9, which I will handle below. Keep trying, folks. And if you disagree with my assessment, cite the "refutation" at issue and explain why my rebuttal does not succeed. Don't merely repeat the "refutation". (I'm looking straight at you, William.) keith s
HD #193:
Obviously I believe him [keith s] to be wrong. I have tried to lay it down quite simply. If a God exists, he would chose a motif to create. That is something even Keith has to agree on.
Not exactly. There doesn't have to be a consistent motif. A designer could change motifs or go with a more free-form approach.
Once that motif is used, we can decipher it. Where Keith is WRONG is his circular logic that God is using a motif to mimic unguided evolution.
I'm not saying that God the Designer chose it because he wanted to imitate unguided evolution. He may have chosen it for a different reason, or because he was somehow limited and had no alternative. The point is that whether it is intentional or not, he ends up mimicking what unguided evolution would produce, because the ONH is exactly what UE predicts out of trillions of possibilities.
In this case with Keith, I don’t have to demonstrate WHY God would chose XYZ.
You have to justify the assumption that God would produce an ONH. If you assume it without justification, you are committing the Rain Fairy fallacy.
All I need to show is where Keith is wrong in his assertion that it IS unguided and why God would want to use something that LOOKS like it is. And since he (or I) don’t have another Universe with some other form of evolution to compare it to, his argument falls apart. You can’t just compare UE to ID. In order to do that you first have to demonstrate it IS unguided. Only then can you make a comparison against ID.
No, because we already know that mutation rates are slow, that inheritance is predominantly vertical, that selection and drift are real, and that microevolution can proceed without guidance. We also know that if those things are responsible for macroevolution as well as microevolution, then an ONH will result. In other words, the ONH is a prediction of unguided evolution.
True, I can not prove scientifically that evolution is guided (I know ID disagrees) but the corollary is equally true against Keith. Therefore bringing up the rain fairy and weather is a non sequitar. Weather doesn’t do what evolution does. God may or may not decide where it will rain tomorrow. Irrelevant to whether ultimately, evolution is goal oriented and God chose that self-reflecting entity called man would emerge.
The Rain Fairy et al do apply, because the logic is the same. As I said in my OP:
This is a big problem for IDers. They concede that unguided evolution can bring about microevolutionary changes, but they claim that it cannot be responsible for macroevolutionary changes. Yet they give no plausible reasons why microevolutionary changes, accumulating over a long period of time, should fail to produce macroevolutionary changes. All they can assert is that somehow there is a barrier that prevents microevolution from accumulating and turning into macroevolution. Having invented a barrier, they must invent a Designer to surmount it. And having invented a Designer, they must arbitrarily constrain his behavior (as explained above) to match the data. Three wild, unsupported assumptions: 1) that a barrier exists; 2) that a Designer exists; and 3) that the Designer always acts in ways that mimic evolution. (We often hear that evolution is a designer mimic, so it’s amusing to ponder a Designer who is an evolution mimic.) Unguided evolution requires no such wild assumptions in order to explain the data. Since it doesn’t require these arbitrary assumptions, it is superior to ID as an explanation. Here’s an analogy that may help. Imagine you live during the time of Newton. You hear that he’s got this crazy idea that gravity, the force that makes things fall on earth, is also responsible for the orbits of the moon around the earth and of the earth and the other planets around the sun. You scoff, because you’re convinced that there is an invisible, undetected barrier around the earth, outside of which gravity cannot operate. Because of this barrier, you are convinced of the need for angels to explain why the moon and the planets follow the paths they do. If they weren’t pushed by angels, they would go in straight lines. And because the moon and planets follow the paths they do, which are the same paths predicted by Newton on the basis of gravity, you assume that the angels always choose those paths, even though there are trillions of other paths available to them. Instead of extrapolating from earthly gravity to cosmic gravity, you assume there is a mysterious barrier. Because of the barrier, you invent angels. And once you invent angels, you have to restrict their behavior so that planetary paths match what would have been produced by gravity. Your angels end up being gravity mimics. Laughable, isn’t it? Yet the ‘logic’ of ID is exactly the same. Instead of extrapolating from microevolution to macroevolution, IDers assume that there is a mysterious barrier that prevents unguided macroevolution from happening. Then they invent a Designer to leap across the barrier. Then they restrict the Designer’s behavior to match the evidence, which just happens to be what we would expect to see if unguided macroevolution were operating. The Designer ends up being an unguided evolution mimic.
keith s
HeKS:
I’m pretty sure I just said a few comments ago that I’d answer 141 tomorrow.
I noticed. So? keith s
Keith, I'm pretty sure I just said a few comments ago that I'd answer 141 tomorrow. HeKS
HeKS #283:
Keith would actually have to assume that the designer passionately wants to eradicate any statistically inferable ONH signal that would naturally be left behind as the byproduct of a process that used branching descent as a method to distribute traits to subsequent generations while also facilitating organismal adaptation through microevolutionary processes.
No, I'm simply saying that we can't quantify the designer's determination to wreck the ONH (or preserve it). We know nothing about the designer. (How many times do I have to repeat that?)
The first assumption turns the designer into a random natural process.
No, as I explained just above in #290.
The second assigns a bizarre, intuitively implausible psychology to the designer that cannot be remotely inferred from the details of the systems that are inferred to be designed. Neither one makes any sense.
Did you say 'intuitively implausible psychology'? It sounds like you are claiming some knowledge of the designer. I pointed this out earlier in #141:
Secondly, you appear to be making an awful lot of assumptions about the designer. On what basis? Practically every IDer I’ve encountered says that we can’t assume anything about the designer, and that “the designer wouldn’t have done it that way” is not a permissible argument. Do you disagree? If you would like to make assumptions about the designer, that’s fine. Just be aware that you must justify them. They can’t be ad hoc assumptions introduced simply for the purpose of conforming the designer to the evidence — that’s the Rain Fairy fallacy. Not only must you justify your assumptions, but the justifications must be of trillions-to-one strength, to compensate for the trillions-to-one advantage of UE in explaining the ONH.
keith s
Andre,
Heks I am all for cordial, civilised and honest discussion, but you can not categorize Keith S’s tripe in any of those
I don't, and I didn't. I only described how I think people should behave in debate and how I try to.
I’m dusting my feet ….
I think that's perfectly understandable and respectable. HeKS
Keith, With more than the due respect, I think you are the one who isn't getting it. I understand perfectly what you're trying to say, but I also understand why it's wrong. Tomorrow I'll try to explain to you why what you're saying doesn't make any sense. Will it get through? Probably not. But I'll try. HeKS
Heks I am all for cordial, civilised and honest discussion, but you can not categorize Keith S's tripe in any of those, to be blunt its not even based on any testable claims, just on how Keith S feels about things. I think however the frustration lies in the fact that he is just not willing to engage with the meat of the matter. Keith S can be safely dismissed as a crackpot. After all we have spent more than 3000 comments in the last four weeks to help him with his faulty logic and it's been to no avail...... Matthew 10:14 give us some good advice on how to deal with people like Keith S. "Whoever does not receive you, nor heed your words, as you go out of that house or that city, shake the dust off your feet." I'm dusting my feet .... Andre
Box #161:
HeKS touches on what I have called Keith’s category mistake. Decisions by a free agent cannot be equated with the role of a die. If Keith insists on doing so, he is required to make the further unsupported assumption, that the designer is completely indifferent about the ordering of life.
HeKS #283:
I very much agree with you.
Box, HeKS, You guys aren't getting it. When I assign equal probabilities to all of the possibilities, I am not doing it because I think the designer is indifferent. I'm doing it because it's the only sensible thing to do. I explained this to William:
You have no observations of your purported designer to fall back on, so you can’t rule out any of the possibilities. It’s the principle of indifference: you can’t rule any possibilities out, so you can’t assign them a probability of zero; you can’t be certain of any of the possibilities either, so you can’t assign a probability of one to any of them. What’s left? You have to assign nonzero probabilities. But not just any nonzero probabilities. They have to be equal nonzero probabilities, because otherwise you are favoring some possibilities over others, with no justification. It’s both common sense and standard statistical practice. I think the only reason you have trouble with it is that you don’t like the implications it has for ID. Be brave, William.
Again, it is not because I'm assuming the designer is indiffiernt. The probabilities are equal simply because we have no reason for making them unequal. keith s
Keith, I'll address your #141 tomorrow HeKS
Mung,
Indeed it does. But it misses the point. The way you treat opponents could be due to your ignorance and it could reflect your ignorance. You could be naive. But that’s not the point I was trying to make.
Well, if you want to associate choosing to be respectful and charitable in debate with ignorance and naivete, it's certainly within your rights to do so. But for my part, I'm not charitable because I'm gullible. I'm charitable because I choose to be. I'm respectful because I choose to be. And because I choose to debate this way, if you see me question the honesty of an opponent's tactics or eventually choose to write someone off as being disingenuous or arguing in bad faith, you can be quite sure that I'm doing so because I honestly believe they have more than earned that accusation and are simply wasting my time rather than because I'm being uncharitable and simply using those accusations as an excuse to exit a discussion. Of course, if and when I eventually leave this discussion with Keith, you can bet he's going to claim that it's for the latter reason, but it's not the likes of people like him that I want to make sure recognize the truth of the matter.
My point was that no matter how an opponent is treated, the same result is obtained.
That's an interesting theory, but I don't happen to agree with it. That may be true of some opponents, like those who are completely closed off to any kind of criticism or counter-argument, but why would that be universally true? Do you really think there's no such thing as an open-minded opponent who honestly disagrees with you but is at least open to the possibility that they might be mistaken? And do you really think that being rude and overly antagonistic couldn't possibly shut down conversation with a person who could otherwise be persuaded by sound-reasoning delivered respectfully?
So how is it that your approach is better than the approach of anyone else here at UD? Seriously, I want to know.
Huh? Where on earth did you get that from? All I said was that I don't agree with one aspect (rudeness and name-calling) of the approach that some people here (on both sides) employ. I'm not sure how you get from that to the idea that I've claimed my approach is better than the approach of anyone else at UD. I don't think that and I didn't say anything remotely likely that.
What do you think it takes to get our opponents to engage in honest and constructive debate?
Well, they need to be honest and open to constructive debate. You can't force people to be like that. But even when they aren't like that, I don't see the need to resort to rudeness and name-calling (though I recognize that frustration may occasionally get the better of anyone). Should we strongly and pointedly draw attention to their poor tactics and reasoning? Sure. Even repeatedly. If they've exhausted your intellectual charity and seem to be behaving dishonestly, say so. But if the discussion gets to the point that you're not motivated to do anything other than point out how stupid you think someone is, well, that's around the time I would personally choose to exit the discussion because nothing else of any use is likely to come from either side. But that's me. If someone else chooses to do otherwise, that's their business. But in my personal opinion it's counterproductive and can reflect poorly on the position someone is arguing for. Many of the rabid anti-ID people resort to insults, misrepresentation and faulty logic because those are the only tools in their toolbox. Why follow their lead when we can do better? HeKS
Keith S You are not one bit interested in truth. You have no intellectual honour and that is plain for all to see. Lastly if you can't believe yourself why the hell should we? Andre
Andre @285:
CS Lewis said it best about our opponents. “I’m not interested in finding out whether the real universe is more like what the Christians say than what the Materialists say. All I’m interested in is leading a good life. I’m going to choose beliefs not because I think them true but because I find them helpful.”
Andre, You know what's funny? Lewis mocks that viewpoint, but it could have come straight from the mouth of William J Murray, who writes things like that all the time:
As it doesn’t matter to me if my beliefs are true or not, doubt of any kind is a non-issue. I guess you could say that I’m the ultimate pragmatist; I don’t care if my beliefs are true; I only care that they work (or at least appear to). If they stopped working, I’d believe something else. Doubt, in my system, is a non-sequitur.
It isn't your opponents who don't care about the truth. It's your fellow IDer, William J Murray. Box made the same mistake as you. I've pointed it out a couple of times, but Box is too embarrassed to reply. keith s
I can say this with certainty, our opponents are not interested in truth...... The whole PCD debate highlights that, distortion of what I've posted, ignoring tactics, false accusations and lastly flat out science denial. CS Lewis said it best about our opponents. "I’m not interested in finding out whether the real universe is more like what the Christians say than what the Materialists say. All I’m interested in is leading a good life. I’m going to choose beliefs not because I think them true but because I find them helpful." Andre
HeKS:
The way I treat my opponents reflects on me.
Indeed it does. But it misses the point. The way you treat opponents could be due to your ignorance and it could reflect your ignorance. You could be naive. But that's not the point I was trying to make. My point was that no matter how an opponent is treated, the same result is obtained. So how is it that your approach is better than the approach of anyone else here at UD? Seriously, I want to know. What do you think it takes to get our opponents to engage in honest and constructive debate? Mung
@Box Re: your #161
HeKS touches on what I have called Keith’s category mistake. Decisions by a free agent cannot be equated with the role of a die. If Keith insists on doing so, he is required to make the further unsupported assumption, that the designer is completely indifferent about the ordering of life. IOW in order for the comparison of a designer with a trillion-sided die to make sense, Keith has to make the following unsupported assumptions: 1. There are a trillion options available for the designer. 2. The designer is completely indifferent about the ordering of life. Indifference implies that the designer has no reason at all to favor one option over others. IOW Keith has to add more unsupported assumptions, and in effect strip a free agent of his ‘personhood’ – choice, reason, preference -, in order to equate a free agent to a random process like the role of a die.
I very much agree with you. If there's any point where there might be room to quibble it's in saying that Keith's assumption is that the designer is "indifferent about the ordering of life". That may be exactly right, and basically is exactly what Keith is assuming - or at least thinks he's assuming - in his argument. However, if you consider the matter in light of what I've been saying to Keith about what would be required for the designer to "completely wreck" the statistical ONH signal, Keith would actually have to assume that the designer passionately wants to eradicate any statistically inferable ONH signal that would naturally be left behind as the byproduct of a process that used branching descent as a method to distribute traits to subsequent generations while also facilitating organismal adaptation through microevolutionary processes. The first assumption turns the designer into a random natural process. The second assigns a bizarre, intuitively implausible psychology to the designer that cannot be remotely inferred from the details of the systems that are inferred to be designed. Neither one makes any sense. HeKS
Our materialist friends are just too precious.... Speech evolved from a common ancestor...... I say all well and fine if you have a good imagination but here is the issue and it's a biggie..... For information to mean anything, in this case speech the system has some minimum requirements that have to be in place before you can even transact..... Stuff like encoders and decoders..... they can't evolve because they are prerequisites for the system to work..... But please don't let this stand in the way of your vivid imaginations...... Andre
Mung,
Using your approach is like attracting flies with honey. You treat them respectfully, you take them seriously, and in return you get what? More flies?
The way I treat my opponents reflects on me. The way they respond and/or generally behave reflects on them. A good argument doesn't need rudeness to bolster it, nor does it require an unending string of evasions to defend it. Weak arguments need at least one and usually both of those things. When I see people behaving poorly, consistently resorting to name-calling, and/or consistently misrepresenting and evading counter-arguments, I typically assume the person knows (even if only deep down) that they don't have a good argument. Why should I mimic that behavior when I know my own arguments are sound and when I'm interested in reasoning on things honestly rather than simply being a stubborn ideologue? As for the bit about honey attracting flies and vinegar repelling them, why should that cause me to use 'vinegar'? I'm not trying to push away honest and serious discussion, and, in practice, when you develop a reputation for employing 'vinegar' as a go-to debate tactic, people who really are capable of engaging in honest and serious discussion will be far more likely to avoid you than the 'flies' who are still perfectly content to buzz around your head while spouting their "irrefutable" nonsense. HeKS
Me_think, Yeah, I know what it means... After all, I saw the movie. Plus my best bud is a lawyer. Do you get the joke? Well, evidently not. I'm not the best joke-ster. How old are you? 12? Forgive me. Vishnu
Vishnu Waterlogged ? I am not sure if you know what rainmaker means. Me_Think
Too much rain can make one feel waterlogged Vishnu
Vishnu @ 275 Barry knows Keiths is UD's rainmaker. Without keith there is no point in running UD! Me_Think
HeKS:
I’m not sure exactly what you mean.
Using your approach is like attracting flies with honey. You treat them respectfully, you take them seriously, and in return you get what? More flies? I'm thinking we must come from vastly different cultures. Are you familiar with saying “You catch more flies with honey than you do with vinegar”? You might catch more flies, but it's still a fly. Mung
Look, folks, Keiths's "bomb" is not bomb. Falsified. Over. And over. And over. And over again. Barry, how long will this be going on? Not telling you how to run your show here, but... How much more attention is going to be given to this... whatever you want to call it. Just curious. Vishnu
AR @258
Goodness me. One clue. The naming word for an object, concept or idea usually does not precede the existence of the object etc. Hence “astronaut” was formed from two Ancient Greek words meaning “star sailor” when such a class of persons needed describing.
Ah, finally. I was hoping someone would try to use the "this word isn't designed because it is formed from two previous words". Two points to consider: 1) Neither "Star" nor "Sailor" convey the meaning "Star Sailor". While the parts already existed with different meanings, only intelligent design (a person) could put the two together into a single unit to convey a heretofore unused and unneeded concept - a person who moves among the stars. 2) If we were to accept that joining or modifying existing words to create new words with new meanings didn't indicate design, by analogy combining pre-existing objects to create new objects with new function would also not indicate design - to wit, you could claim that a wheelbarrow was not designed, because after all the wheel, the rod, and the basket already existed. And, fortunately or unfortunately, with that I must leave these boards for awhile. Later all! drc466
HeKS, Would you care to comment on what I wrote in post #161? Box
Mung,
It’s interesting isn’t it, how we treat the critics and skeptics differently and how they treat us differently? Not that the results are any different ;)
I'm not sure exactly what you mean. Also, Keith's argument doesn't claim that the designer could have created a trillion different objective nested hierarchies. His argument claims that the designer could have created a trillion different patterns other than an objective nested hierarchy and we have no reason to think he would prefer to create an objective nested hierarchy rather than something else. As I've told him several times now, this argument is entirely wrong-headed (SEE #117). Not that he's actually interacted with what I've said or anything. HeKS
LoL! @ Alicia- unguided evolution doesn't have any entailments. As for ID we have told you what it entails yet you choose to remain willfully ignorant. Why you think that your ignorance refutes ID is the question. Joe
Alicia Renard:
I certainly claim that a group of intelligent people did not one day sit down and invent a language for themselves.
Well, you would be wrong. Humans have invented all sorts of languages and they do it all the time. One of my favorites: Yukihiro Matsumoto ("Matz"), the creator of Ruby, is a professional programmer who worked for the Japanese open source company, netlab.jp. In case you're not hearing me, try: American Sign Language Mung
HeKS, It's interesting isn't it, how we treat the critics and skeptics differently and how they treat us differently? Not that the results are any different ;) Mung
wd400:
Who designed Spanish?
My Spanish teacher. Rosetta Stone later came up with a better design. Neither one violated the law of ONH. Mung
Zachriel: Which has more thermodynamic order, a brain or an equal weight of diamonds? Yes. Mung
mung writes:
keiths claims as a significant pillar of his argument that designers can create literally untold numbers (“trillions”) of objective nested hierarchies. What’s his evidence for this claim? How has he supported it? What makes these trillions of imagined nested hierarchies objective?
It's a hard concept to grasp but it involves entailments. Because ID theory amounts to no more than "it's designed, I tells ya", ID "theory" will fit any scenario regarding life's diversity on earth. No entailments - no theory! Alicia Renard
keiths:
Don’t either of you have the slightest curiosity about how the 2LoT really works?
So much for sticking to your "bomb" of an argument. keiths:
Quest, Your question is off-topic. We are discussing my “bomb” argument in this thread.
Some of us are, or are trying to. You're not. Mung
Addressing yet more nonsense from keiths: keiths claims as a significant pillar of his argument that designers can create literally untold numbers ("trillions") of objective nested hierarchies. What's his evidence for this claim? How has he supported it? What makes these trillions of imagined nested hierarchies objective? I am still Mung and Joe is still Joe and keiths still has no argument. Mung
keiths: Speaking of lateral transfers, why do you suppose your designer doesn’t do more of them? Mung: There are numerous elements that are shared across numerous different species. One way to explain them is to assume that they were inherited by common descent. But then it seems rather silly to ask why some designer hasn’t done lateral transfers. For all you know that’s exactly what happened and the assumption of common descent is false. keiths: On the other hand, Mung and Joe are still Joe and Mung, respectively. And keiths still has no argument. Just today ENV posted an example of this very thing that keiths seems to think could never happen:
"It may seem strange to consider the fact that you, as a mammal, have all the known genes required to pattern a feather, and yet you do not look like Big Bird. The reason for this discrepancy," Zimmer insists, "is that genes can do different jobs." This conclusion was derived from scientists looking at the "genetic recipe for feathers written in the DNA of birds." This molecular "cookbook" is apparently very old, and "evolution was tinkering with the same [genetic] toolkit" in developing feathers. - Mission Impossible: Trying to Explain the Feather Without Teleology
Mung
Alicia:
I said “intelligence” is not clearly defined by ID proponents
How do you know? You don't appear to know anything. Intelligence as defined by ID is just the ability to apply knowledge to manipulate nature for some purpose. Why do we think that languages are designed? Because they are artifacts. Nature didn't produce them, that's for sure... Joe
But that’s not really the question I asked, is it?
You asked about "intelligent intervention". According to the UD glossary, intelligence means "capacities to reason, to plan, to solve problems, to think abstractly, to comprehend ideas, to use language, and to learn". I can't parse a whole lot of sense from your phrase using that definition. Can an intervention be a capacity or have a capacity? Alicia Renard
drs466 writes:
GREAT question! You’re almost there! For unguided evolution, this is a real stumper – does the attraction come before/after the ability to attract? These types of chicken/egg conundrums are in fact one significant argument against evolution. It’s a form of systemic irreducible complexity. For ID and creationism, of course, such a question is a no-brainer. The chirp and the hearing were designed simultaneously in the first crickets.
Bush crickets use sound (their ears are located on their knees) to locate prey and avoid predators, so it seems reasonable to think that sound detection systems precede sound producing systems. ETA "their ears are" Alicia Renard
AR:
Again, are you [wd400] claiming that there was no intelligent intervention in the formation of language?
I certainly claim that a group of intelligent people did not one day sit down and invent a language for themselves.
Good for you. I'd tend to agree. But that's not really the question I asked, is it? Phinehas
Again – if you seriously expect anyone to believe that words like “car”, “plane”, “astronaut”, “ship”, “dog”, “cow”, “gold”, “Sun”, “legionnaire”, etc., etc., etc. were “develop[ed] over deep time from vocal communication of social apes, through a proto-language in ancient humans”, you’re delusional
As you say:
At this point, further discussion is probably pointless.
Goodness me. One clue. The naming word for an object, concept or idea usually does not precede the existence of the object etc. Hence "astronaut" was formed from two Ancient Greek words meaning "star sailor" when such a class of persons needed describing. Alicia Renard
AR,
Did male crickets chirp before female crickets heard them?
GREAT question! You're almost there! For unguided evolution, this is a real stumper - does the attraction come before/after the ability to attract? These types of chicken/egg conundrums are in fact one significant argument against evolution. It's a form of systemic irreducible complexity. For ID and creationism, of course, such a question is a no-brainer. The chirp and the hearing were designed simultaneously in the first crickets. drc466
Phinehas writes:
Again, are you [wd400] claiming that there was no intelligent intervention in the formation of language?
I certainly claim that a group of intelligent people did not one day sit down and invent a language for themselves. Alicia Renard
AR, Designed = Not by chance. Not difficult. You've entered "a dead dog is not really dead" territory. At this point, further discussion is probably pointless. However, 1) Animal capabilities are either the result of unguided evolution or design built-in by an intelligent designer. Trying to use them as arguments in either direction are pointless exercises in circularity. 2) Language IS designed.
“Language is designed”? – by whom? The people that speak it? Or did it develop over deep time from vocal communication of social apes, through a proto-language in ancient humans?
Again - if you seriously expect anyone to believe that words like "car", "plane", "astronaut", "ship", "dog", "cow", "gold", "Sun", "legionnaire", etc., etc., etc. were "develop[ed] over deep time from vocal communication of social apes, through a proto-language in ancient humans", you're delusional. wd400,
There it is, the reason languages fall into nested hierarchies is not because of a design process (because the language as a whole is not designed, even if some words are the result invention), but because of descent with modification.
So, in other words, it is a perfect corollary for Creation/ID! Thousands upon thousands of unique sound/meaning combinations were created/designed by humans (see a few examples above). Over time, these individual sound/meaning combinations have changed slightly, even split off into multiple sounds with the same meaning based on the same original created sound/meaning combination. These sound/meaning combinations are, over time, being added to, by intelligent design, as new, unique sound/meaning combinations are required. The ONH signal due to the sound variations over time is sufficient to statistically generate an overall ONH, despite the fact that languages contain a multitude of individually-designed sound/meaning combinations, and despite the fact that new sound/meaning combinations are being continuously created. Thanks for proving my point, that phylogenies containing original and continuous design input produce ONH's just as ably as unguided chance operating from a single source! Welcome to the ID camp!
[Also], (a) most of the differences between, say, French Itallian and Romanian, are not the result of entirely new words, but drift in the meaning, pronunciation and representation of existing ones. Which, again, is how the nested hierarchy is estimated.
Agreed. The individual words of human languages have drifted and changed over time, just like the individual created kinds of dog, horse, ant, spider, etc. have drifted and changed over time. Very creationist of you.
(b) That human language needs humans does not mean language was designed.
You also win 2nd-most ridiculous comment of the day.
Whale song needs whales — did whales design whale song?
Who/whatever designed whales, designed whale song. Arguing who/what designed whales is a circular argument, as stated above. Whale song is more like dam building in beavers, than language in humans. Whales don't create new "words", and develop "language" that is "trained" into the next generations of whales. drc466
Barry, I think we should add a new DDD for Keith as I describe in #234. We could call it the "50 First Dates Disorder" or something like that. HeKS
Barry Arrington writes:
AR @ 250 presents us with a nice example of: Darwinian Debating Device # 7: “Definition Deficit Disorder” The definition in the UD glossary is perfectly clear to all but the willfully obtuse.
Let me see if I can't commit DDD number (whichever is to do with quoting from Wikipedia) by quoting from Wikipedia
The definition of intelligence is controversial. Some groups of psychologists have suggested the following definitions: From "Mainstream Science on Intelligence" (1994), an editorial statement by fifty-two researchers: A very general mental capability that, among other things, involves the ability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly and learn from experience. It is not merely book learning, a narrow academic skill, or test-taking smarts. Rather, it reflects a broader and deeper capability for comprehending our surroundings—"catching on," "making sense" of things, or "figuring out" what to do.[5] From "Intelligence: Knowns and Unknowns" (1995), a report published by the Board of Scientific Affairs of the American Psychological Association: Individuals differ from one another in their ability to understand complex ideas, to adapt effectively to the environment, to learn from experience, to engage in various forms of reasoning, to overcome obstacles by taking thought. Although these individual differences can be substantial, they are never entirely consistent: a given person's intellectual performance will vary on different occasions, in different domains, as judged by different criteria. Concepts of "intelligence" are attempts to clarify and organize this complex set of phenomena. Although considerable clarity has been achieved in some areas, no such conceptualization has yet answered all the important questions, and none commands universal assent. Indeed, when two dozen prominent theorists were recently asked to define intelligence, they gave two dozen, somewhat different, definitions.[6][7]
What does the glossary say?
Intelligence – Wikipedia aptly and succinctly defines: “capacities to reason, to plan, to solve problems, to think abstractly, to comprehend ideas, to use language, and to learn.”
:) Alicia Renard
wd400:
Phin: And, certainly, that intelligent intervention might result in an objective nested hierarchy is not a million-to-one proposition. [I can't tell what the following is responding to, but the above is my best guess.] wd400: That might be true if languages were designed…
Again, are you claiming that there was no intelligent intervention in the formation of language? Phinehas
AR @ 250 presents us with a nice example of: Darwinian Debating Device # 7: “Definition Deficit Disorder” The definition in the UD glossary is perfectly clear to all but the willfully obtuse. Barry Arrington
It is hard to believe that someone is so confused about the meaning of ‘intelligence’, that someone would go as far as holding that ‘the environment’ is intelligent. Yet, here you are and I guess you are a live example of such a case.
You've misunderstood or misread me. I said "intelligence" is not clearly defined by ID proponents such that it is effectively meaningless. I never said the environment is "intelligent". I said the environmental niche could be described as the designer with respect to an organism. ETA ...with respect to a population of organisms Alicia Renard
Alicia Renard #245: “Intelligence”. What that means when used by ID proponents is never made clear.
It is hard to believe that someone is so confused about the meaning of 'intelligence', that someone would go as far as holding that 'the environment' is intelligent. Yet, here you are and I guess you are a live example of such a case. Good luck with that. Box
Silver Asiatic writes:
I’d like to hear the evolutionary story about the origin of human language through a process that did not involve design or intent (human intelligence).
I doubt anyone who thinks evolutionary processes were at work in the development of human language doubts humans are purposeful beings. But the prerequisites for language, the right sensory apparatus, sound-generating equipment, sufficient brain capacity to manage the processing and muscular control required could not have come about by human intent to speak. The whole panoply must have co-evolved. Hearing is a useful skill for living, finding prey, avoiding predators etc. All sorts of animals can make noises. Primitive insects like crickets use it in finding mates. Social animals: wolves, dolphins, chimps employ sound in social communication. There are no "IC" barriers from this to development of more complex communication leading to language that I can see.
Randomly, a sender offered a sound that had no meaning, and randomly a receiver had no intention or interest in understanding it. But then evolution created meaning, and it coevolved to be the same meaning for sender and receiver without either of them realizing it. No design at all.
Did male crickets chirp before female crickets heard them? Alicia Renard
Silver Asiatic writes:
Do you think animals are incapable of designing things by intelligence?
Taking tool use as an example, animals other than humans are able to make and use tools. Not just primates - some members of the Corvidae are skilled in tool use and puzzle solving.
Beavers accidentally pile logs in streams the way gravity moves rocks to the bottom of a hill?
Dam building in beavers appears instinctive so this would be a heritable trait rather than a learned skill. Environmental design if you like. Alicia Renard
Do you think Whales designed whale song?
Yes, that's a product of intelligence and intention. It could not possibly have been random. A signal was created to mean something. That's design.
Or birds designed warning calls?
A bird randomly created a sound that meant nothing but it just happened to correlated with danger so another bird who thought it meant nothing just randomly aligned that correlated sound with danger? Obviously not. Birds created the informational realtionships and meaning through intelligence. They also build nests through intelligence.
Or bacteria designed quorum sensing?
I wouldn't call that as comparable with language but any kind of informational relationships defy a chance origin. Silver Asiatic
Box asks:
Which part of “no intelligence involved” do you not understand?
"Intelligence". What that means when used by ID proponents is never made clear.
Or do you hold that the environment is intelligent?
See above for what I think about describing anything as "intelligent". I do like the idea of talking about the niche (the precise environment) any particular organism occupies as its designer. Alicia Renard
Silver Asiatic, Do you think Whales designed whale song? Or birds designed warning calls? Or bacteria designed quorum sensing? wd400
Or did it develop over deep time from vocal communication of social apes
Do you think animals are incapable of designing things by intelligence? Beavers accidentally pile logs in streams the way gravity moves rocks to the bottom of a hill? Silver Asiatic
Alicia Renard,
drc466: Evolution (RMNS, Neutral theory, KS’ unguided evolution) is Not Designed – no intelligence involved. Agreed?
Alicia Renard: Not really. On evolution, the designer could be considered the environment.
Which part of "no intelligence involved" do you not understand? Or do you hold that the environment is intelligent? Box
1) Does human language exist without humans? No – it is not a product of chance.
I'd like to hear the evolutionary story about the origin of human language through a process that did not involve design or intent (human intelligence). Randomly, a sender offered a sound that had no meaning, and randomly a receiver had no intention or interest in understanding it. But then evolution created meaning, and it coevolved to be the same meaning for sender and receiver without either of them realizing it. No design at all. Silver Asiatic
...most of the differences between, say, French Itallian and Romanian, are not the result of entirely new words, but drift in the meaning, pronunciation and representation of existing ones.
What have the Romans ever done for us? Modern descendants of Latin include Spanish, Portuguese, Catalan, Occitan, Italian, Romanian. Alicia Renard
drc466 writes:
If nothing else, I think we’ve proven that you and I don’t think the same way ;-).
It's communication that is unreliable. Language is an imperfect tool.
Like Evolution v. ID, when I use the term “designed”, I simply mean “not by chance – some intelligence was involved”. A chair is designed. A rock is not. A word is designed. The sound the wind makes is not.
I don't think everything in the universe falls into two neat and separate sets of "designed" and "by chance". The way you and others here use "designed" is equivocal. The equivocation is clear if you would only switch from passive to active voice. It would clarify who or what is designed the designed object.
Evolution (RMNS, Neutral theory, KS’ unguided evolution) is Not Designed – no intelligence involved. Language is Designed – requires intelligence to create, sustain, improve; in this case human intelligence. Agreed?
Not really. On evolution, the designer could be considered the environment. Pelagic marine organisms that can swim have an advantage over those that can't. Orcas, barracuda, sharks and squid are all shaped by the niche they occupy. "Language is designed"? - by whom? The people that speak it? Or did it develop over deep time from vocal communication of social apes, through a proto-language in ancient humans? Alicia Renard
That might be true if languages were designed... (and of course the presence of a nested hierarchy doesn't preclude a designer -- nothing at all can do that) wd400
wd400:
There it is, the reason languages fall into nested hierarchies is not because of a design process (because the language as a whole is not designed, even if some words are the result invention), but because of descent with modification.
This demonstrates rather masterfully where the disconnect lies. Thank you. Quite clearly, descent with modification doesn't preclude intelligent intervention. Nested hierarchies do not preclude the involvement of an agent. Design and objected nested hierarchies are not mutually exclusive concepts. And, certainly, that intelligent intervention might result in an objective nested hierarchy is not a million-to-one proposition. Phinehas
HD: Also, if you are sincere in your suggestion that we are having a difficult time with keiths' argument, please have a look at what WJM wrote @162. It provides a decent summary of some of the ways that the argument fails and has been refuted. Engage it carefully, and then ask yourself whether any of those points have been adequately addressed by keiths. I think you will find most of them have not even been addressed at all. Phinehas
4) “Who designed Spanish”? It was developed as a modification to an earlier language, by a group of intelligent agents called…the Spanish.
There it is, the reason languages fall into nested hierarchies is not because of a design process (because the language as a whole is not designed, even if some words are the result invention), but because of descent with modification. Aslo, (a) most of the differences between, say, French Itallian and Romanian, are not the result of entirely new words, but drift in the meaning, pronunciation and representation of existing ones. Which, again, is how the nested hierarchy is estimated. (b) That human language needs humans does not mean language was designed. Whale song needs whales -- did whales design whale song? wd400
@HD #193
Heks I have to respectfully disagree with you. It’s just my opinion, but definitely one that I am sure other readers have felt. Even the title of this thread implies you are having a hard time. The word “Suggests” implies uncertainty and that you don’t have anything concrete.
Hi HD, Regarding the thread title, I chose it only to create consistency with the title that KF wrote on the previous thread when he used one of my preliminary comments as the subject of an OP. KF titled that OP, "HeKS suggests a way forward on the KS 'bomb' argument", but the thread got shut down while discussions where still going. The title of this thread indicates that it continues that thread. There is no deeper meaning to it. Furthermore, I can assure you that the only thing I'm having a hard time with is getting Keith to interact honestly with what I'm saying. In describing Keith's tactics I left out one that jumped out at me when I read his most recent response to me. Keith seems to have a very convenient form of short-term memory loss, where you make an argument, he misrepresents a portion of it and responds, you address his misrepresentation and set forth the correct representation of the snippet he misrepresented, then in his next comment he tries to respond to your limited correction, suddenly "forgetting" the context in which it was originally presented, thereby creating yet another misrepresentation. For an example of this, just look at the exchange in this thread regarding what is required to "completely wreck" the signal of an ONH that is considered objective from a statistical analysis of a huge number of organisms. Keith has been trying to argue that it would have been easy for the designer to "completely wreck" the ONH signal at any time by acting in a way that was inconsistent with it, but that he never did. This argument is patently false, because it pretends the ONH Keith is talking about is objective in an absolute sense (i.e. there really is one perfect tree without any incongruities that could be destroyed with the slightest thing out of place) when, in reality, the ONH he's referring to is considered "objective" on the basis of statistical correlations between highly incongruent trees. There are significant incongruencies throughout the entire alleged tree of life, but the ONH signal is still not wrecked from a statistical perspective. This is to be expected if new traits (whether introduced by "unguided evolution" or by design) were primarily distributed to subsequent generations through branching descent. As I said to Keith, wrecking the ONH signal "would basically require either an abandonment of using a form of branching descent to distribute traits and facilitate adaptation, or would require a concerted effort to specifically overcome the ONH pattern created by the branching descent process so that it was impossible to get an ONH signal with a high degree of statistical correlation even on an analysis of traits that gave the best, most parsimonious ONH signal." Keith responded by giving an example of something that he thinks would break the ONH signal, which involved randomly assigning identical traits to half of the lineages existing at a given time. But not just once (the distribution of the method of primordial germ cell production across the phyla pretty much matches this requirement). The designer would need to do this habitually, randomly sprinkling identical traits onto organisms, willy-nilly. This example from Keith didn't disagree with what I said about what would be required (he just ignored what I said). This is not easy. This is not a case of, "Oops, I made one wrong move and completely wrecked the ONH signal" as Keith's argument implies could, and almost certainly would, happen. Rather, this would constitute an example of a concerted effort to specifically overcome the ONH pattern created by the branching descent process. But if the designer used branching descent to distribute traits to subsequent generations while also facilitating adaptation, why would the designer care to put forth a concerted effort to ruin the ONH signal that could be statistically inferred from that process? It's intuitively implausible, but Keith offers no reason for it. And yet, when I pointed out to Keith that I didn't ask for an example of what he thought would ruin this ONH because I already knew and told him the kind of thing that would be necessary and that it would take a lot to overcome this statistical ONH signal, he replied: "First, it’s not difficult to wreck an ONH. Humans do it all the time with their designs, which generally don’t fall into an ONH." Do you see what happened there? Keith jumped back to talking about a hypothetical generic ONH that is objective in an absolute sense rather than one where the objectivity is derived from the statistical correlations between a very large number of incongruent (non-matching) trees. So Keith has just fallen back to repeating a false assertion that he had been trying to sneak by (or perhaps honestly didn't realize was wrong at first), and presto, we're back to the false claim that it would be super-easy for the designer to completely wreck the ONH pattern at any time. And why is it important for Keith that this false claim remain intact? Because he's trying to argue that there's no reason to think the designer would have a particular love of objective nested hierarchies over, supposedly, trillions of other options available to him, and yet just such a love would be implied if the designer meticulously avoided ever making a move that would "completely wreck" the perfect objective nested hierarchical structure, which would have been oh-so-simple. The reality of the situation, however, is that the designer could have acted (and it seems did act) in conflict with the ONH structure all over the place many times and it would not have "completely wrecked" the ONH signal at all. If you don't see the seriousness of the problem here, both in terms of Keith's tactics and the implications this point has for his argument (keeping in mind this only one part of the problem with his argument), then there's probably not much I can do to help you understand it further, but if you do see it, then you should realize that this is what has been happening with Keith since square one. He dodges points every which way imaginable, and it becomes an endless cycle of him ignoring or misrepresenting what is said and then falling back to disputed, and often refuted, assertions and assumptions. For my part, there's nothing uncertain in my arguments and I'm not lacking anything concrete. These issues have been apparent to me since the first moment I saw his argument, and they are ultimately fatal to it even if I allow most of his unsubstantiated assumptions. I understand why Keith is ducking and weaving, but don't be fooled by his hand-waving replies, and don't be tricked into thinking he's presenting substantial replies to my points just because he's writing words directed at me. HeKS
AR @230,
When drc466 talks of agency, is he thinking that there is input from other mysterious agents?
If nothing else, I think we've proven that you and I don't think the same way ;-). Like Evolution v. ID, when I use the term "designed", I simply mean "not by chance - some intelligence was involved". A chair is designed. A rock is not. A word is designed. The sound the wind makes is not. Evolution (RMNS, Neutral theory, KS' unguided evolution) is Not Designed - no intelligence involved. Language is Designed - requires intelligence to create, sustain, improve; in this case human intelligence. Agreed? drc466
Zachriel:
Phinehas: Life defies the tendency toward chaos and disorder similar to how a rocket defies gravity. Z: And the Sun defies gravitational collapse. The Earth’s atmosphere helps the surface defy the entropy of a cold universe.
And if you hadn't snipped the next sentence from your quote, everyone could have seen why your examples are missing the point. Phinehas
drc466:
(Ludicrous is a nice word – I sure am glad that some non-designing non-intelligent chance process created that set of sounds and magically inserted its meaning into the mind of a group of humans!!!!)
I snorted out loud at this. Hilarious. Phinehas
drc466 writes:
But the truth, which you can’t avoid, and is why saying “languages aren’t designed” is ridiculous beyond belief, is that every word, every single word, is the result of an intelligent agent creating that word(sound), assigning a meaning to it, and conveying that meaning to another intelligent agent. Have the origins of most of those original definitions and creations been lost in the mists of time? Certainly. Does that mean that the original creation of each word was not the work of an intelligent agent? That is truly ludicrous. (Ludicrous is a nice word – I sure am glad that some non-designing non-intelligent chance process created that set of sounds and magically inserted its meaning into the mind of a group of humans!!!!)
Oh dear! I see we are getting a bit carried away with the semantics. For language to be able to develop, there needs to be several things in place. The ability to make and hear sounds of sufficient complexity, sufficient brain capacity for the mental processing required and a social organisation that would profit communication. These all have to evolve concurrently in small enough steps so that ability in language communication increases evenly through a social group or breeding population. When drc466 talks of agency, is he thinking that there is input from other mysterious agents? Alicia Renard
Phinehas: Life defies the tendency toward chaos and disorder similar to how a rocket defies gravity. And the Sun defies gravitational collapse. The Earth's atmosphere helps the surface defy the entropy of a cold universe. Zachriel
Zachriel:
Phinehas: The law of gravity, however, is countered/overcome by rockets in a way that requires explanations ranging far outside the law of gravity, and even outside natural forces. Z: Newton’s law of universal gravity states there is a force of attraction proportional to the product of their masses and inversely proportional to the square of the distance between them. A rocket is not outside of this law, nor is a balloon.
Fortunately, I didn't say that a rocket is outside the law of gravity. I said that the explanation for a rocket must go outside the law of gravity, and even outside natural forces. And it must. Or are you now claiming that, in addition to life, a rocket is not the product of intelligent agency? Next, will we be discussing how gravity is acting on the information in the rocket's guidance system? Phinehas
drc466 writes:
No-one would claim that the Asian languages, for example, have the same ancestor as the European languages.
Well, I think someone might. Me, for instance. I reckon there is some evidence that Homo erectus had the brain capacity (and well-developed Broca's area) and vocal equipment (hyoid bone) for speech. So the roots of human language could stretch back possibly over a million years. So there is reason to think all modern human language radiates out from a proto-language of an ancestral population. Alicia Renard
Box:
Phinehas: Only in the same way a rocket going to the moon “violates” the law of gravity. Box: Thank you Phinehas. You are right, that is what I should have said.
Actually, you never used the word "violate" anyway. That word was placed in your mouth by keiths and then echoed by Zachriel. You used the word "defiance" to describe the relationship, which I think is entirely accurate and appropriate. Life defies the tendency toward chaos and disorder similar to how a rocket defies gravity. Neither can be explained in purely materialistic terms. Phinehas
Phinehas: The law of gravity, however, is countered/overcome by rockets in a way that requires explanations ranging far outside the law of gravity, and even outside natural forces. Newton's law of universal gravity states there is a force of attraction proportional to the product of their masses and inversely proportional to the square of the distance between them. A rocket is not outside of this law, nor is a balloon. Nor is a rocket outside the laws of thermodynamics. Zachriel
wd400/AR, Wow. I can't decide whether to take you guys seriously, or not. 1) Does human language exist without humans? No - it is not a product of chance. It was created (designed) by our ancestors when they needed to communicate. 2) Do words like "technology" pop into existence all by themselves by chance, or does some (intelligent) individual think to him/herself, "I need a word to describe this particular type of advanced scientific study - I'll call it 'technology'!" 3) Are new words being created and added to languages all the time (e.g. is Webster's different from year to year)? Where do these new words come from? The ether? 4) "Who designed Spanish"? It was developed as a modification to an earlier language, by a group of intelligent agents called...the Spanish. 5) Where did the first words come from? Did two pre-humans look at a rock and have chance and time insert the sound "rock" into their brains? or did one of them "design" the word "rock", point at a rock and indicate to the other that he/she wanted it to be called "rock"? Look, I know - you want to argue that there wasn't one dude in spectacles and Birkenstocks who sat down one day and single-handedly "designed" an entire language. Which is a strawman of truly epic proportions. Or maybe you're saying that since most words (but not all!) are derivatives of previously designed words, they don't qualify as "designed", somehow. But the truth, which you can't avoid, and is why saying "languages aren't designed" is ridiculous beyond belief, is that every word, every single word, is the result of an intelligent agent creating that word(sound), assigning a meaning to it, and conveying that meaning to another intelligent agent. Have the origins of most of those original definitions and creations been lost in the mists of time? Certainly. Does that mean that the original creation of each word was not the work of an intelligent agent? That is truly ludicrous. (Ludicrous is a nice word - I sure am glad that some non-designing non-intelligent chance process created that set of sounds and magically inserted its meaning into the mind of a group of humans!!!!) (Fish. Barrel. Much appreciated) drc466
wd400:
Who designed Spanish?
Surely, you are not suggesting that there was no intelligent intervention in it's formation, or that Spanish is the result of purely natural forces that did not have language in mind, are you? Phinehas
Zachriel:
Phinehas: Only in the same way a rocket going to the moon “violates” the law of gravity. Z: No. Rockets do not violate the law of gravity or the laws of thermodynamics.
Which is, of course, why "violates" was in quotes. The law of gravity, however, is countered/overcome by rockets in a way that requires explanations ranging far outside the law of gravity, and even outside natural forces.
Phinehas: Everything we see, from an apple falling from a tree to a rocket going to the moon, is perfectly consistent with the law of gravity. Z: That’s right.
And yet a rocket's ability to run counter to the law of gravity requires an explanation. Phinehas
Box, "language fairies" seem as good as any other answer, if we assume languages are designed. wd400
Alicia Renard: Why would you think languages are designed?
Of course they are designed - probably by human beings. What else? Do you think they are produced by chemical reactions in a warm little pond? Box
WD400: Who designed Spanish?
The language fairies? Box
drc466 I gotta question!!! Why would you think languages are designed? Alicia Renard
drc466 writes: So let me simplify: 1) If you had NO other evidence than the standing stones themselves, would you say they were the result of chance or some intelligent agent positioning them there. Stonehenge isn't just stones. But the site was inhabited and built by anatomically modern humans over a long period of time. I don't think the category "intelligent agent" is clearly defined enough for me to decide whether people are "intelligent agents" or not. 2) If chance, why? Not by chance. I suspect the site was carefully chosen though by whomexactly and why exactly, I guess we'll never know. 3) If agent, why? The human builders were the agents and artisans. Evidence suggests that people and their animals came from distant parts of Britain, as far as Scotland. Evidence of feasting suggests large social gatherings, possibly religious. 4) Can that chance/agent differentiation be calculated? I can't imagine how. 5) If those stones were just loosely piled on the ground in no particular order, would you say chance/agent? In this instance, probably not. The nearest place the large Sarsen stones could have come from is the Marlborough Downs, over twenty miles away. 6) Is it strictly a “probability” calculation? Is that specific unique arrangement on the ground significantly less probable mathematically than the standing structure? I don't think probability calculations make much sense with regard to past events. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ drc466 continues: ID would posit the following answers: 1) Agent 2) No chance 3) Positioning indicates some type of function/purpose 4) Maybe – ID is about trying to determine this scientifically/mathematically 5) Chance 6) No – both are extremely improbable, but the first has some function/design/point to it, the second does not Do your answers agree? Well, the interesting question is 4. And I see you can't say how ID would determine this calculation, either. As for your questions – ask away! I'll take a rain check for now. But I'll think of something! Alicia Renard
Who designed Spanish? wd400
wd400,
Languages* aren’t designed
You win most ridiculous statement of the day. drc466
Yet human languages are just as obviously the result of Intelligent Design. No-one would claim that the Asian languages, for example, have the same ancestor as the European languages. Languages* aren't designed, and there is good evidence that Asian and European languages stem from a common ancestor: http://www.pnas.org/content/110/21/8471.abstract *With the exception of esparanto an the like, which of course wouldn't fit into a phylogeny wd400
HD at 193 writes.
Obviously I believe [Keith S] to be wrong. I have tried to lay it down quite simply. If a God exists, he would chose a motif to create. That is something even Keith has to agree on. Once that motif is used, we can decipher it. Where Keith is WRONG is his circular logic that God is using a motif to mimic unguided evolution. That is circular logic since we have not proven or can prove that evolution is guided or unguided. That is what is being questioned. In this case with Keith, I don’t have to demonstrate WHY God would chose XYZ. All I need to show is where Keith is wrong in his assertion that it IS unguided and why God would want to use something that LOOKS like it is. And since he (or I) don’t have another Universe with some other form of evolution to compare it to, his argument falls apart. You can’t just compare UE to ID. In order to do that you first have to demonstrate it IS unguided. Only then can you make a comparison against ID.
Is water "guided" when it runs downhill? I would say, yes. It is guided by the physical properties of water and the substrate over which it runs, the topology of the land and the effects of gravity. A theist can see God's hand in that without needing to propose additional input from God tinkering with the flow. A theist who accepts evolution interprets the environment as the designer or guide for the flow of evolutionary change through time. Whilst, as far as I know, there are no atheists who reject evolution as a theory, there are many theists who accept evolutionary theory.
True, I cannot prove scientifically that evolution is guided (I know ID disagrees)...
Depends what you mean by guided, I guess. I doubt science can settle the issue of whether God maintains every atom in every corner of the Universe at every instant. If ID proponents claim that God/the designer manipulates events such that the laws of physics are disrupted, then that is something to look for.
...but the corollary is equally true against Keith. Therefore bringing up the rain fairy and weather is a non sequitar. Weather doesn’t do what evolution does. God may or may not decide where it will rain tomorrow. Irrelevant to whether ultimately, evolution is goal oriented and God chose that self-reflecting entity called man would emerge.
Do you check the weather forecast at all? Do you avoid open high spaces if thunderstorms threaten? If God can decide anything, why did he decide to mimic an evolutionary process that conforms to the predicted objective nested hierarchy?
Also, it seems some people are arguing against evolution theory in general, which ends up spreading this threads out further than they have to be.
I'd much rather see someone try to explain what they think ID "theory" is and haw it can explain what we observe. Alicia Renard
AR @210, All in all, you did an impressive job of dodging the question - apparently I was not clear enough in my questions. So let me simplify: 1) If you had NO other evidence than the standing stones themselves, would you say they were the result of chance or some intelligent agent positioning them there. 2) If chance, why? 3) If agent, why? 4) Can that chance/agent differentiation be calculated? 5) If those stones were just loosely piled on the ground in no particular order, would you say chance/agent? 6) Is it strictly a "probability" calculation? Is that specific unique arrangement on the ground significantly less probable mathematically than the standing structure? ID would posit the following answers: 1) Agent 2) No chance 3) Positioning indicates some type of function/purpose 4) Maybe - ID is about trying to determine this scientifically/mathematically 5) Chance 6) No - both are extremely improbable, but the first has some function/design/point to it, the second does not Do your answers agree? As for your questions - ask away! drc466
keith s @191,
e) drc466 complaining about a reconstructive accuracy of “only” 1 in 10^6;
Please refrain from using loaded characterizations. I did not "complain" about anything. I merely quoted what was in Theobald's paper, in support of my assertion that there is not currently a consensus tree of life, and that "1 in 10^38" is unsupported (you would agree that 10^6 is not equal to 10^38, yes?). Now, since you have chosen not to reply to my criticisms of founding a statistical conclusion on self-admittedly incomplete, inaccurate and contradictory "treeS" of life, I'll move on to the illogic of your central claim, that Unguided Evolution produces an ONH. Logically speaking, there are the following possibilities regarding UE and ONH: 1) UE WILL create an ONH, regardless of the characteristics chosen when defining the tree of life. 2) UE CAN create an ONH, depending on the characteristics chosen when defining the tree of life. 3) UE WILL NOT create an ONH, regardless of the characteristics chosen when defining the tree of life. Likewise, there are the following possibilities regarding ID and ONH: 4) An ID WILL create an ONH, regardless of the characteristics chosen when defining the tree of life. 5) An ID CAN create an ONH, depending on the characteristics chosen when defining the tree of life. 6) An ID WILL NOT create an ONH, regardless of the characteristics chosen when defining the tree of life. For your claim that UE is trillions of times more likely than ID to be true, UE must follow #1 above, while ID must follow #5 or #6 above. I don't think anyone, you or IDist, would object to admitting #5 or #6 is true, although some might object to the likelihood of #6 - given millions of varied samples of anything, proper selection of characteristics should be capable of finding a statistical ONH. But for the sake of argument, we'll go ahead and state that an active ID could create any possible configuration of nested and non-nested outcomes. So that leaves us with your assertion. For your assertion to be true, #1 must be true. #2 sounds possible, until you realize that if you can create a non-ONH from UE by picking certain characteristics when forming the tree, that your elimination of "trillions" of alternatives disappears - some of those trillions of alternatives become viable, by choosing the right (wrong!) characteristics. In other words, #2 = #5, and only #6 differentiates an ID from UE. #6 would require a true random distribution of characteristics across millions of species - if it is even possible, the number of possible permutations is surely miniscule compared to #5. In addition, it is a fairly trivial matter to show that, by proper selection of characteristics, almost ANY set of objects, designed or not, can be sorted into an ONH (ref. Heartlander's example @186). So your assertion hinges on #1 - UE MUST produce an ONH, regardless of characteristics chosen. The words "convergent evolution", "maximum parsimony", and "maximum likelihood" should be more than sufficient to falsify that assertion, but a more simplistic example might be helpful. By selecting any subset of the characteristics used in creating trees of life (or different characteristics entirely), and applying a different weighting to those characteristics, one can easily create a non-ONH arrangement. Let us take, for example, the following, using the animal kingdom: sort by # of appendages, # of non-leg appendages, purpose of appendages, type of vision, reproductive methodology. This selection and priority of characteristics would place slugs and eels with snakes, lizards with cattle, etc. Within the 4-appendage group, you would have some 4-legged insects, birds, cattle, and humans. Birds and bats and primates would then be split out (2 legs, 2 non-legs). Bats and birds (wings) would then split from a common ancestor from primates (arms). So, clearly, trees of life are not independent of the type and weighting of characteristics - which leaves us with #2 as being true. UE CAN produce an ONH, if you subjectively select the right characteristics, in the right order, using the right weighting, and extraordinary statistical methods such as maximum likelihood. Leaving you to claim that #2 is correct and #5 and #6 are correct - and that #2 has "trillions" of fewer permutations than #6. Which is both illogical and ridiculous. (FYI - Theobald appears to support #2, that UE CAN generate an ONH. I'm not certain why he finds this an evidence for UE, as again it is a fairly trivial matter to produce an ONH for any sufficiently large group of objects, by proper selection of characteristics. In any case, KS' claim that UE is trillions of times more likely than ID remains illogical if UE only provides a possibility of ONH, rather than a certainty regardless of characteristics examined.) (FYI #2 - Human languages are a perfect example of the illogic of KS' argument. Theobald himself uses language as an example of ONH resulting from a phylogeny - e.g. Spanish, Portuguese, Italian obviously have common ancestry of one form or another. Yet human languages are just as obviously the result of Intelligent Design. No-one would claim that the Asian languages, for example, have the same ancestor as the European languages. And clearly each required some intelligent agent to create the words, define their meanings, and over time intelligently add new words to the vocabulary - while some "new" words are degenerative forms of earlier words, some "new" words (e.g. "technology") had to be created by an intelligent agent. They provide a perfect example of the logical argument given above, and refute KS ably.) drc466
@ drc466 I reminded you that you had asked me some questions but omitted the link. As that thread was closed down, I'll assume that you didn't get chance to respond there. I'll repost here as below. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ In your opinion, is Stonehenge Intelligently Designed? Latest research seems to indicate there were at least three separate phases of construction at the site over a period of one and a half thousand years. So the site evolved and was “remodelled” at least twice. Here is the main page to Sheffield University’s recent work at the site and the surroundings (The Cursus, Durrington Walls, Woodhenge etc). It all seems to indicate people, exclusively modern humans, were involved in the construction phases. Many of them are buried or cremated there or nearby. Remains of substantial meals have been found. A possible site that housed the builders is being excavated. The archaeology is rich and fascinating. Do we have names and photos? No. Your question seems trite. What we know and will never know about the purposes and motives of the people involved in the several phases of construction is vast. Built by people physically indistinguishable from people living today? Indisputable! Call it intelligently designed if you like but that seems trite and dismissive of the unimaginable collective effort involved. How do you know? Not having done more than visit the site, I can’t give you first-hand evidence of finds and locations. I have to trust the experts. Is your answer a scientific conclusion, or metaphysical assumption? Neither. It’s a summary of information I’ve gleaned from various sources that are widely available to anyone interested. I may have mis-spoken on details. Check for yourself – it’s all in the public domain. Is it based strictly on a probability calculation, or is there some other component? There’s a sprinkling of imagination. Some of the feast remnants included cattle bones that must have come from Scotland according to isotope analysis. Can your thought process regarding Stonehenge be quantified into a calculation that a computer could reproduce? Stonehenge may have been used to compute and predict seasons. But your question seems to ask can my thought processes be computed or reproduced. If that is what you ask then, as far as I know, not currently. If designed – do you know anything about the designer(s)? We know an immense amount about the builders. We have skeletons and other artifacts. Did they make sketches and plans before starting work? I have no idea. That they had some sort of plan or it was trial-and-error is hard now to establish. If you think you do – what do you know, and how do you know it? See above. (Your questions are rather repetitive.) Is your conclusion as to whether it is designed dependent on that knowledge/lack? I really don’t know whether the people “designed” the structures of Stonehenge and the environs before building them. I have heard the remark on visiting Europe that “they really knew how to build in the old days” and have heard the riposte “Well, all the bad buildings fell down so we only have the good ones left”. Whatever it is about Stonehenge that might make you think it had a non-naturalistic cause… We humans are limited to four dimensions and whatever arrives in our heads from our senses. But with little technology but much organised effort, projects such as we see in Stonehenge (and Newgrangea,d Skara Brae) it is impressive what can be achieved. …– does the simplest lifeform known to man have more, or less, of that characteristic? All life on Earth is related. We differ in degree only. Do I get to ask some questions, now? Alicia Renard
logically_speaking: I can only conclude that you concede or agree with the points you don’t respond to, such as the tree of life uses circular reasoning. We responded to your "circular reasoning" argument by pointing out how unlikely it is that generations of biologists have made such an elementary mistake. logically_speaking: Indeed, I maintain that there really is no such thing as a true objective nested hierarchy. Infact even if the designer had made life that showed anthing like a ONH then it still would be subjective, because the designer chose it to be that way. Um, no. If the designer makes something round, it is objectively round. I