Uncommon Descent Serving The Intelligent Design Community

How the scientific method, as currently practised, protects weak or bad theories

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And why it is okay – even necessary -for lay people to critique science theories.

From lawyer and social analyst Edward Sisson: “God of the gaps” assumes that science steadily fills-in gaps. But this is an artifact of the sociological rule that Stephen Jay Gould noted, that widely-accepted theories (i.e., filled-in former gaps) are never rejected until someone comes along to offer a more persuasive replacement theory.

But an existing theory may be false for reasons evident to a rational layperson, due to inherent conflicts in its underlying logic, or due to reliance on falsified assumptions, etc., which a reasoning mind can identify even if the particular person does not have the specialized training necessary to construct an alternative theory. Juries in civil court cases (i.e., laypeople) do this kind of thing hundreds, perhaps thousands, of times each year, in product liability cases, design defect cases, medical malpractice cases, patent infringement cases, etc., where an expert for the plaintiff presents a technical theory and the lawyer for the defense, perhaps relying on an expert, identifies holes in the plaintiff’s theory, without having to develop an alternative theory.

The sociological problem in the science world is that there is no funding for the role of a defense-only advocate, whose only job is to poke holes in the plaintiff’s theory, without having to present an alternative theory. Of course, if the defense CAN present an alternative theory, so much the better; but there is no requirement to do so. In the science world, the only funded career-path is for theory-creators.

In the criminal context, it would be as if defendant X could not simply have a defense counsel, but had to hire his own prosecution team whose job was to prove that mister Z was the real criminal; and the trial would be a competition of presentations between the two prosecution teams, where the jury had to decide that either X or Z did the crime.

If we had a scientific system in which there was a regular, funded career path for people to debunk existing theories, without replacing them, what we would see is that issues once thought to have been answered by science (filled-in gaps) would suddenly go blank again, leaving the gap re-opened, with nothing replacing it. We would not see a steady, but false, impression of gaps being steadily filled.

It is to keep this from happening that we are told that only credentialed scientists are allowed to reject theories, and that laypeople are not allowed to do so.

The problem with this argument is that individuals, by the time they reach college age, are pretty much “set” in their level of intelligence and analytical ability. Many have a sufficient intellectual ability to analyze theories, identify logical inconsistencies, etc. All of these people have the ability, should they wish to, to go into science and develop knowledge necessary to be able to present credible new theories — but only a few do. Those who choose not to, still retain the intellectual ability to discredit theories, and later in life, they may find themselves involved in some situation where they apply their minds to some theory to see if it is internally logically consistent, etc. They cannot be ruled out-of-bounds in this, in deference to those few who chose to develop the additional expertise necessary to construct new theories.

Comments
"... and does not [contain] information ..."Ilion
August 7, 2011
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Silly Person who refuses to comprehend that ‘chance’ doesn’t cause anything @ 87:The evidence in hand points to 100,000+ bits worth of DNA info as a reasonable minimum for a first functional, self-replicating cell.” DNA is not information and does not information. DNA codons may well be a conventional encoding that symbolically represents information, but they are no more actual information than any computer code is … or than words are.Ilion
August 7, 2011
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^^ Find the needle in less than 150 attempts. xpmaterial.infantacy
August 7, 2011
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'So what is the difference between “searching a space” and “designing” Mung?'
Searching, as in blind searching, is effectively impossible for a sufficiently large sequence of possibilities. (P(x) < 10^-150). Intelligent searches, as in designed searches, effectively cut down the search space, obviating the need to proceed in a random or lexicographical fashion. A simple binary search (also intelligent, designed) coupled with the use of a magnetometer, could find KF's needle in less than 50 attempts -- at least that would reduce the needle search to a volume of less than 1 meter. (Warning: hasty math employed.) A GA assisted search mechanism invokes necessity more than chance. Chance is incapable (see above) and necessity must assume physical laws which work to produce the desired outcome. (Any GA which doesn't accurately model these physical laws can't be Darwinian, IMO. Happy to be corrected.) Combine chance with necessity in a GA and you have a great way of exploring a reduced search space when you may not know precisely the target you're looking for, but you know about where it's likely to be found. Sorry if I miss the point, I'm behind on this thread, working haphazardly on another post which will hardly prove worth the time I'm investing.material.infantacy
August 7, 2011
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I'm a programmer. If I write a GA and use it to produce some novel new product, who gets paid - me or my GA? Does it become public domain? After all, I didn't really do anything, it was my GA.ScottAndrews
August 7, 2011
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Elizabeth Liddle:
Obviously GAs don’t solve problems not presented to them, but then nor do biological populations.
Obviously, GAs are designed to solve specific problems put to them and not just any old problem. Obviously, biological populations are not like GAs.Mung
August 7, 2011
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F/N 2: The evidence in hand points to 100,000+ bits worth of DNA info as a reasonable minimum for a first functional, self-replicating cell.kairosfocus
August 7, 2011
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Elizabeth Liddle:
So what is the difference between “searching a space” and “designing” Mung?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Design
They don’t need to “get lucky” in order to find a design – the environment, as in nature, hugely raises the probability that they will.
sigh. Throwing away things that don't work improves the probability of finding what, exactly? And by how much is the probability increased, exactly? More baseless claims.
Mung
August 7, 2011
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F/N: meyer in the PBSW article on origin of body plans in teh Cambrian: _______ >> The Cambrian explosion represents a remarkable jump in the specified complexity or "complex specified information" (CSI) of the biological world. For over three billions years, the biological realm included little more than bacteria and algae (Brocks et al. 1999). Then, beginning about 570-565 million years ago (mya), the first complex multicellular organisms appeared in the rock strata, including sponges, cnidarians, and the peculiar Ediacaran biota (Grotzinger et al. 1995). Forty million years later, the Cambrian explosion occurred (Bowring et al. 1993) . . . One way to estimate the amount of new CSI that appeared with the Cambrian animals is to count the number of new cell types that emerged with them (Valentine 1995:91-93) . . . the more complex animals that appeared in the Cambrian (e.g., arthropods) would have required fifty or more cell types . . . New cell types require many new and specialized proteins. New proteins, in turn, require new genetic information. Thus an increase in the number of cell types implies (at a minimum) a considerable increase in the amount of specified genetic information. Molecular biologists have recently estimated that a minimally complex single-celled organism would require between 318 and 562 kilobase pairs of DNA to produce the proteins necessary to maintain life (Koonin 2000). More complex single cells might require upward of a million base pairs. Yet to build the proteins necessary to sustain a complex arthropod such as a trilobite would require orders of magnitude more coding instructions. The genome size of a modern arthropod, the fruitfly Drosophila melanogaster, is approximately 180 million base pairs (Gerhart & Kirschner 1997:121, Adams et al. 2000). Transitions from a single cell to colonies of cells to complex animals represent significant (and, in principle, measurable) increases in CSI . . . . In order to explain the origin of the Cambrian animals, one must account not only for new proteins and cell types, but also for the origin of new body plans . . . Mutations in genes that are expressed late in the development of an organism will not affect the body plan. Mutations expressed early in development, however, could conceivably produce significant morphological change (Arthur 1997:21) . . . [but] processes of development are tightly integrated spatially and temporally such that changes early in development will require a host of other coordinated changes in separate but functionally interrelated developmental processes downstream. For this reason, mutations will be much more likely to be deadly if they disrupt a functionally deeply-embedded structure such as a spinal column than if they affect more isolated anatomical features such as fingers (Kauffman 1995:200) . . . McDonald notes that genes that are observed to vary within natural populations do not lead to major adaptive changes, while genes that could cause major changes--the very stuff of macroevolution--apparently do not vary. In other words, mutations of the kind that macroevolution doesn't need (namely, viable genetic mutations in DNA expressed late in development) do occur, but those that it does need (namely, beneficial body plan mutations expressed early in development) apparently don't occur. >> _________ That is the issue that needs to be addressed squarely, and -- consistently -- is not.kairosfocus
August 7, 2011
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Dr Liddle: In this context, a search on the scope of applying the full atomic resources of our solar system, running at the maximum physical rate, will be comparable to a single straw to a cubical bale 1 light month across. THAT is the problem. And, UNTIL YOU GET A VIABLE BODY PLAN, STARTING WITH THE FIRST METABOLISING AND SELF-REPLICATING CELL BASED LIFE, AND GOING ON TO EMBRYOLOGICALLY FEASIBLE PLANS FOR MULTI-CELLULAR ORGANISMS YOU CANNOT DO A DARWINIAN SEARCH. Why? because unless you have reproductive functionality, you have no reproduction to have variation and natural selection on. That is why the issue is and has always been origin of body plans, with the first one the start-point. And remember, 500 bits is basically 250 bases, or equivalent to a protein of maybe 80 - 90 AAs. ONE novel, short protein. GEM of TKIkairosfocus
August 7, 2011
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Elizabeth, If you have two processes, each of which comes up with a novel design, presumably in each case, what was come up with was one of a small subset of the possible useless things that could be made with the materials to hand. My question is: given the output, what makes one design and the other not? You're asking what to call design that isn't design. By definition there is no such thing. GAs don't fit it. You have a computer with a processor designed by teams of people, built by a process that required its own design, and then you design and execute a program that operates within specified parameters. By following your instructions it acts as an extension of you. And because it rolls the virtual dice, its innovations are credited to those dice, which were also designed? The outputs of GAs are design. There is no design without design, unless it's designed to look like it wasn't.ScottAndrews
August 7, 2011
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BA quoting velikovskys: ‘No one to my knowledge has proposed that quantum mechanics does not have materialistic causes.’ The term to my knowledge means to my knowledge, that is to my knowledge. I 'll be glad to look at your links . When time allowsvelikovskys
August 7, 2011
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Elizabeth Liddle:
Now I guess you could argue that there’s no such thing as a “design” – that all potential “designs” are there in search space, waiting to be found”, where search space consists of all possible combos, including a vast majority of non-solutions. But it would be an odd position for an ID proponent
I have to say, sometimes the things you write are a tad confusing. Why would I first say that there is no such thing as a design and then argue that there is such a thing as a design? That would be absurd.
You said that an evolutionary algorithm "searched" rather than "designed". I wondered what you meant.
But as to your last sentence, I have argued precisely that, so I don’t know why you would find it odd. :) If a design does not exist it cannot be found by any search, period.
Nor by a designer, presumably.
If a design does not exist within the space being searched it cannot be found regardless of the algorithm employed to conduct the search of the search space. This should be uncontroversial.
Indeed. And nor can a designer find it.
So how does atheism, materialism, naturalism, Darwinism, etc. (take your pick) explain the existence of these designs coupled with the fact that they just happened to be within the search space and reachable by a search of that space? Pure dumb luck?
No. OK, I think we are getting to a crucial insight here.
Take the (in)famous Dawkins WEASEL program by way of example. Do you dispute that the target phrase “methinks it is like a weasel” exists within the search space defined by the program?
Not at all. Obviously it was.
Do you dispute that an algorithm has been employed that not only searches the relevant space, but is capable of locating the target phrase?
Not at all.
Are you going to assert that the GA employed by the program designed the target phrase? If not, why not?
You are, again, mistaking the designing of the critter itself for the design of the fitness function. In the case of the WEASEL program, this is irrelevant, but WEASEL is totally unlike biology in a huge numbers of respects, not least because there is no distinction between genotype and phenotype, and, just as important, only a single solution to the problem posed. But in other GAs this is extremely important - the fitness function is the analog of the environment, not the analogy of the critters whose phenotype fits them to survive within it.
Because that is precisely what you are arguing with respect to GAs in general, that they perform the actual act of designing the target or targets that are being searched for.
I'm talking about the critters within the GA who are the analog of biological critters in natural environment. The GA itself is the whole caboodle - self-replicating population plus environment. The population evolves to consist of well adapted critters that are not designed by anyone, whther in a GA or in a natural environment. In a GA the environment is designed, in nature it is not. Nonetheless a natural environment presents a vast array of fitness functions for any population to meet.Elizabeth Liddle
August 7, 2011
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Elizabeth Liddle:
Darwinian search algorithms do not search every straw in the haystack with equal probability.
How do you know this?
Not only that, but they aren’t looking for a a needle in a haystack anyway! What they are looking for is spiders, and once they find a bit of a spider web, then they just have to follow the web until they reach a spider. And there are lots of spiders.
That's a joke, right? A bit of that British humor?Mung
August 7, 2011
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vel, you state: 'Quote a shallow excuse and in your own words show me the error of my ways' and yet you stated: 'No one to my knowledge has proposed that quantum mechanics does not have materialistic causes.' and yet: Quantum Entanglement – The Failure Of Local Realism - Materialism - Alain Aspect - video http://www.metacafe.com/w/4744145 The falsification for local realism (materialism) was recently greatly strengthened: Physicists close two loopholes while violating local realism - November 2010 Excerpt: The latest test in quantum mechanics provides even stronger support than before for the view that nature violates local realism and is thus in contradiction with a classical worldview. http://www.physorg.com/news/2010-11-physicists-loopholes-violating-local-realism.html This following study adds to Alain Aspect's work in Quantum Mechanics and solidly refutes the 'hidden variable' argument that has been used by materialists to try to get around the Theistic implications of the instantaneous 'spooky action at a distance' found in quantum mechanics. Quantum Measurements: Common Sense Is Not Enough, Physicists Show - July 2009 Excerpt: scientists have now proven comprehensively in an experiment for the first time that the experimentally observed phenomena cannot be described by non-contextual models with hidden variables. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/07/090722142824.htm (of note: hidden variables were postulated to remove the need for 'spooky' forces, as Einstein termed them — forces that act instantaneously at great distances, thereby breaking the most cherished rule of relativity theory, that nothing can travel faster than the speed of light.) The immediate question is, "What does conscious observation have to do with anything in the experiments of quantum mechanics?" and thus by extrapolation of that question, "What does conscious observation have to do with anything in the universe?" Yet, the assertion that consciousness is to be treated as a separate entity when dealing with quantum mechanics, and thus with the universe, has some very strong clout behind it. Quantum mind–body problem Parallels between quantum mechanics and mind/body dualism were first drawn by the founders of quantum mechanics including Erwin Schrödinger, Werner Heisenberg, Wolfgang Pauli, Niels Bohr, and Eugene Wigner http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_mind%E2%80%93body_problem "It was not possible to formulate the laws (of quantum theory) in a fully consistent way without reference to consciousness." Eugene Wigner (1902 -1995) from his collection of essays "Symmetries and Reflections – Scientific Essays"; Eugene Wigner laid the foundation for the theory of symmetries in quantum mechanics, for which he received the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1963. Here is the key experiment that led Wigner to his Nobel Prize winning work on quantum symmetries: Eugene Wigner Excerpt: To express this basic experience in a more direct way: the world does not have a privileged center, there is no absolute rest, preferred direction, unique origin of calendar time, even left and right seem to be rather symmetric. The interference of electrons, photons, neutrons has indicated that the state of a particle can be described by a vector possessing a certain number of components. As the observer is replaced by another observer (working elsewhere, looking at a different direction, using another clock, perhaps being left-handed), the state of the very same particle is described by another vector, obtained from the previous vector by multiplying it with a matrix. This matrix transfers from one observer to another. http://www.reak.bme.hu/Wigner_Course/WignerBio/wb1.htm i.e. In the experiment the 'world' (i.e. the universe) does not have a ‘privileged center’. Yet strangely, the conscious observer does exhibit a 'privileged center'. This is since the 'matrix', which determines which vector will be used to describe the particle in the experiment, is 'observer-centric' in its origination! Thus explaining Wigner’s dramatic statement, “It was not possible to formulate the laws (of quantum theory) in a fully consistent way without reference to consciousness.” etc.. etc... vel, of course you will probably deny any of this mattersbornagain77
August 7, 2011
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Elizabeth Liddle:
Now I guess you could argue that there’s no such thing as a “design” – that all potential “designs” are there in search space, waiting to be found”, where search space consists of all possible combos, including a vast majority of non-solutions. But it would be an odd position for an ID proponent
I have to say, sometimes the things you write are a tad confusing. Why would I first say that there is no such thing as a design and then argue that there is such a thing as a design? That would be absurd. But as to your last sentence, I have argued precisely that, so I don't know why you would find it odd. :) If a design does not exist it cannot be found by any search, period. If a design does not exist within the space being searched it cannot be found regardless of the algorithm employed to conduct the search of the search space. This should be uncontroversial. So how does atheism, materialism, naturalism, Darwinism, etc. (take your pick) explain the existence of these designs coupled with the fact that they just happened to be within the search space and reachable by a search of that space? Pure dumb luck? Take the (in)famous Dawkins WEASEL program by way of example. Do you dispute that the target phrase "methinks it is like a weasel" exists within the search space defined by the program? Do you dispute that an algorithm has been employed that not only searches the relevant space, but is capable of locating the target phrase? Are you going to assert that the GA employed by the program designed the target phrase? If not, why not? Because that is precisely what you are arguing with respect to GAs in general, that they perform the actual act of designing the target or targets that are being searched for.Mung
August 7, 2011
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If you want to find a needle in such a bale, get a scanner that detects needles and allows you to move tot he needle. Which is an intelligent search.
Or it could also be a Darwinian search. That's the point! Darwinian search algorithms do not search every straw in the haystack with equal probability. Not only that, but they aren't looking for a a needle in a haystack anyway! What they are looking for is spiders, and once they find a bit of a spider web, then they just have to follow the web until they reach a spider. And there are lots of spiders. tbh I think the "search" metaphor is getting in the way here, but if we are going to use it, it's important to characterise the search carefully. Let's take that antenna example: There is a huge "search space" consisting of every possible combination of antenna arm angle, radius, and whatever other parameters they had in there. Clearly if the evolutionary algorithm simply draw combos at random and then at the end picked the best, a) it wouldn't be an evolutionary algorithm and b) it would take far too long. So it doesn't do that. It starts with something minimal - maybe four straight arms - then tweaks them at random. Then of those it takes the best and copies them with random tweaks. Then of all of those, it takes the best, and copies those with random tweaks. Then of all of those, it takes the best, and copies those with random tweaks. Now, you can easily see that nothing like the entire search space is being sampled. Indeed it is perfectly possible that some potentially fertile part of search space has been entirely over-looked. That doesn't matter. The point is that the algorithm ensures that the next part of space ot be probed is adjacent to something that works fairly well. And, as the search space itself is likely to have structure (viable solutions are likely to be adjacent to one another), all the algorithm has to do is to find a spot where there are better spots nearby in order to improve the solution. And I think this is probably at the heart of the issue - Dembski, and, I think you, are making what I think is a major error in assuming that "search space" has no structure - that being in one part of the solution space gives you no special vantage point in getting to the next. I think it's a case of math hiding the truth rather than revealing it! Because if we abandon the metaphor, and just think, practically, about how either a designer, or an evolutionary algorithm goes about improving a design, both start with prototypes, and both tweak. The designer has the advantage of being able to select her tweaks from ones that look potential (rejects solutions before they even reach the drawing board, or even consciousness), but the algorithm has the advantage of exploring directions that the human designer would be inclined to reject as weird. The human designer also has the advantage of being able to take imaginative leaps (aha! perhaps if we took an aircraft engine and put it in a car....) which the algorithm can't do (and that is one of the reasons to think that a Darwinian algorithm, rather than an imaginative designer, designed living things - we don't see those leaps of solutions across lineages). But given enough iterations, the evolutionary algorithm may often beat the human designer because of its ability to search more of the search space, including initially unfruitful directions, making use of the structured nature of most solution spaces (and the highly structured nature of biological search spaces). But try to get an evolutionary algorithm to find a winning lottery ticket will fail miserably, because lottery winning space is completely unstructured (at least it should be - Gaming Commissions usually see to that!)Elizabeth Liddle
August 7, 2011
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Elizabeth Liddle:
Or do you dispute that a Darwinian search algorithm has no more chance of finding a useful solution from search space than does a random draw?
I don't know what a "Darwinian search algorithm" is. Is it a blind, unguided, unassisted search for nothing in particular whereby the only information provided is of the oops, that didn't work, kill that one off variety?Mung
August 7, 2011
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ScottAndrews: thanks for your response!
Elizabeth, So what is the difference between “searching a space” and “designing” Mung? Think carefully before you answer. I’ll take a stab. Design has intent. Intent isn’t abstract. Design of the sort being discussed isn’t abstract. It does or makes something.
That wasn't quite what I was getting at, Scott. If you have two processes, each of which comes up with a novel design, presumably in each case, what was come up with was one of a small subset of the possible useless things that could be made with the materials to hand. My question is: given the output, what makes one design and the other not? Both have "searched" a "search space" and plucked a functional solution to some problem from it.
I did some reading on this and found that every example of the output of GAs involved optimizing the arrangement of preexisting components or behaviors. For example, a GA enabled a fighting robot to employ the most effective combination of punches and kicks. However there is no indication that it “invented” new moves or modified its form to execute new moves. None of them implemented a design. Both the input and the output required intervention. They are computer programs performing as written, nothing more. The limitations in the outputs were also noteworthy. A search for polymers yielded only polymers, not novel uses for those polymers. Taking that next step would call for someone writing a new GA. It demonstrates roughly what we actually see in biological evolution, including its limitations, not what you extrapolate from it. And it does not implement any designs.
Well, I can't speak for fighting robots, this fairly famous example of the use of evolutionary algorithms for designing antennae resulted in novel designs: http://alglobus.net/NASAwork/papers/Space2006Antenna.pdf To quote the Discussion:
In addition to being the rst evolved hardware in space, our evolved antennas demonstrate several advantages over the conventionally designed antennas and manual design in general. The evolutionary algorithms we used were not limited to variations of previously developed antenna shapes but generated and tested thousands of completely new types of designs, many of which have unusual structures that expert antenna designers would not be likely to produce. By exploring such a wide range of designs EAs may be able to produce designs of previously unachievable performance. For example, the best antennas we evolved achieve high gain across a wider range of elevation angles, which allows a broader range of angles over which maximum data throughput can be achieved and may require less power from the solar array and batteries. With the evolutionary design approach it took approximately 3 person-months of work to generate the initial evolved antennas versus 5 person-months for the conventionally designed antenna and when the mission orbit changed, with the evolutionary approach we were able to modify our algorithms and re-evolve new antennas speci cally designed for the new orbit and prototype hardware in 4 weeks. The faster design cycles of an evolutionary approach results in less development costs and allows for an iterative \what-if" design and test approach for di erent scenarios. This ability to rapidly respond to changing requirements is of great use to NASA since NASA mission requirements frequently change. As computer hardware becomes increasingly more powerful and as computer modeling packages become better at simulating di erent design domains we expect evolutionary design systems to become more useful in a wider range of design problems and gain wider acceptance and industrial usage.
my bold And that's with a fairly low-dimensioned search space. Other examples I know of are algorithm-writing GAs which actually produce usable code, often with "ingenious" novelties (Dr Bot has given some nice examples of error-checking algorithms), including algorithms for optimising yield from hedgefunds. Obviously GAs don't solve problems not presented to them, but then nor do biological populations. You won't evolve fins and flippers in the middle of the Gobi desert :)Elizabeth Liddle
August 7, 2011
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Miss Grundy, who seems to think he is more holy than God: "You are out of order. And, you are willfully contributing to the pattern of incivility that we need to overcome if we are to get beyond mudslinging to actually address a serious question on its merits." Listen to you! Well, on the bright side, you have finally removed my ability to rationalize certain of your behavior (for example, you long-standing refusal to admit that 'chance' is not and cannot be a cause of anything) as due to honest error. Clearly, you value something or other higher than truth, or reason.Ilion
August 7, 2011
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PS: Sorry, that thread responds to DWG.kairosfocus
August 7, 2011
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Dr Liddle: Re:
No, I don’t know this, kf. Indeed, it’s the crux of the whole issue. It is claimed, repeatedly, that only intelligence (intentional purposeful intelligence) can find a tiny subset of solutions in a Vast search space.
Now, there is an overlooked thread this weekend, based on a response to NR. In that thread, I looked at the significance of the 500 bit scale config space relative to the search resources of our solar system. Let me clip:
the only credible cause of something that has that many functionally specific bits is intelligence as we OBSERVE it, based on the challenge of finding islands of specific function in a large space of possibilities, beyond the solar system [our effective universe] threshold. (FYI, over the time since the usual estimate for the big bang, 10^57 atoms would go through about 10^102 Planck time quantum states where it takes bout 10^30 such to do the fastest — ionic — chemical reactions. 500 bits is about 10^150 possibilities, 48 orders of magnitude beyond, that is, a search of 10^102 steps at most will not sample enough of the possibilities to plausibly capture something that is UNrepresentative of the distribution as a whole.) And, plainly, functionally specific configs are going to be absolutely overwhelmed by gibberish in the space of possibilities. If you are looking for needles in haystacks but sample only 1 in 10^48 of the haystack, overwhelmingly you are going to be picking up a tiny bit of straw. The gamut of search is not reasonable relative to the isolation of the target in the field of possibilities. To give an idea, let us say that a needle and a straw both weigh about a gram. Looking for a 1 gram object in a pile of straw [assumed to be about right for a straw's weight and a needle's weight] weighing in at 10^42 tonnes [and at about the density of water, 10^42 tonnes would be a cubical bale of straw, something like 625 billion miles on the side . . . [i.e. about 0.1 light year on the side, a light year being 5.87849981 × 10^12 miles miles or a shade under 10^16 m]], by sampling 1 gram at random just does not cut it as a reasonable search. [EXPLANATION: A one straw-sized sample from a 600 billion miles on the side bale, i.e. big enough to swallow our solar system without noticing, is obviously overwhelmingly likely to pick up only straw. But 10^102 Planck-time quantum states of 10^57 or so atoms in that solar system, would be 1 in 10^48 of the set of possibilities for a 500 bit system, i.e. the same problem of . And remember, what this means is that our solar system is comparatively pulling just one straw-sized sample. Would you be willing to bet that such ample would be needle not straw?] So, we see a simple example of how functionally specific complex organisation and associated information [FSCO/I] beyond a reasonable complexity threshold is a reliable sign of design. An empirical sign. So, we immediately see that we have a reasonable empirical procedure and test for inference to design on specified complexity beyond a threshold. A process that is subject to empirical test and falsification on the very simple challenge: provide a good OBSERVED counter-instance where it is credible that undirected chance and necessity led to FSCO/I beyond say the solar system threshold.
That is the scope of the challenge to a non-intelligent search on the gamut of our solar system, with a space of possibilities for just 500 bits. Or, 72 ASCII characters. This is the reason why I had commented: "You know or should know that simply on the gamut of our solar system, the config space for 500 bits is not reasonable searchable save by intelligence." A random sample of size 1 straw to a bale more than a light month across, is going to overwhelmingly be likely to pick up the dominant feature: straw. It matters not if it is strewn with a great many needles, so long as the needles are of such a proportion as to be UNrepresentative of the overall bale. If you want to find a needle in such a bale, get a scanner that detects needles and allows you to move tot he needle. Which is an intelligent search. When it comes to life forms, the issue is that most configs of relevant atoms and molecules are NOT going to make metabolising, self-replicating entities. The degree of complexity involved is going to dwarf the scope of our 500- bit straw bale, but the search resources on the gamut of our solar system are not going to shift. And, I repeat, until you hit on a functioning config, you are not going to be able to hill-climb through chance variations and natural selection. GEM of TKIkairosfocus
August 7, 2011
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EL: "You have an excluded middle, there Ilion." No, I don't. If I did, you could identify it.Ilion
August 7, 2011
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V, It was addressed to you but it was just an excuse to state the unassailable fact that God is no better than me. I'd like to hear if BA disagrees. BA do you want to argue? Kind of bored today, thought I'd spend some time on UD. I don't think there's really much to argue about. A relative truth is not the truth, it can't be.lamarck
August 7, 2011
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Elizabeth, So what is the difference between “searching a space” and “designing” Mung? Think carefully before you answer. I'll take a stab. Design has intent. Intent isn't abstract. Design of the sort being discussed isn't abstract. It does or makes something. I did some reading on this and found that every example of the output of GAs involved optimizing the arrangement of preexisting components or behaviors. For example, a GA enabled a fighting robot to employ the most effective combination of punches and kicks. However there is no indication that it "invented" new moves or modified its form to execute new moves. None of them implemented a design. Both the input and the output required intervention. They are computer programs performing as written, nothing more. The limitations in the outputs were also noteworthy. A search for polymers yielded only polymers, not novel uses for those polymers. Taking that next step would call for someone writing a new GA. It demonstrates roughly what we actually see in biological evolution, including its limitations, not what you extrapolate from it. And it does not implement any designs.ScottAndrews
August 7, 2011
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Mung, when you have a moment, I'd appreciate a response to my post @ #51Elizabeth Liddle
August 7, 2011
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Ilion: You are out of order. And, you are willfully contributing to the pattern of incivility that we need to overcome if we are to get beyond mudslinging to actually address a serious question on its merits. GEM of TKI PS: I think you need to do some thinking on the change in what is acceptable language between the Elizabethan era [or even the era of the Webster's 1828 dictionary] and today.kairosfocus
August 7, 2011
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kf
Dr Liddle: You know or should know that simply on the gamut of our solar system, the config space for 500 bits is not reasonable searchable save by intelligence. GEM of TKI
No, I don't know this, kf. Indeed, it's the crux of the whole issue. It is claimed, repeatedly, that only intelligence (intentional purposeful intelligence) can find a tiny subset of solutions in a Vast search space. The counter-claim is that Darwinian processes can also do this. This is why GAs are relevant. Mung:
Compelling counter-arguments have been provided. Numerous compelling counter-arguments. Numerous times.
I recall two: One is that fitness functions in GAs are intelligently designed. The other is that GAs require a starting population of minimally functional self-replicators. Do you have any others?Elizabeth Liddle
August 7, 2011
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You have an excluded middle, there Ilion.Elizabeth Liddle
August 7, 2011
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BA : !! Perhaps you should take lessons from Elizabeth for you aren’t even close to Elizabeth’s level of subtle dishonesty Man you guys need to cut back on the coffee, then isn't my blatant dishonestly ( in your opinion) really more honest than EL's subtle dishonesty( in your opinion), so why would you wish me to be more dishonest? BA , we can get to the answer to everything, to tell the truth I find smaller questions more interesting,like your fact about information outside space and time. BA vel, at 50, and you expect to think that you are even trying to be reasonable with those shallow excuses?? It would be nice if you gave me the benefit of the doubt . I personally find myself totally reasonable. You know what might help if you want to pursue this conversation? Quote a shallow excuse and in your own words show me the error of my waysvelikovskys
August 7, 2011
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