Uncommon Descent Serving The Intelligent Design Community

Is Evolution Repeatable?

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One of our commenters here, trrll, made the oft-cited claim that evolution is unrepeatable. I asked what evidence there is of this and he made some unsubstantiated claims. Because of the frequency of such claims here I asked that he back them up before he comments here again. As of now the result of my request is the sound of crickets chirping. To be fair, perhaps trrll didn’t see my last response. If not he’s sure to see this.

I posted a paper on the sidebar back in January written by Jean Staune titled Non Darwinian Evolution. Professor Dembski had originally linked to it as an article but I thought it important enough to make a permanent link to it on the sidebar. It’s a survey of evolutionary scientists in Europe who reject both creationism and the Darwinian mechanism of chance & necessity. Among those non-creationist dissenters from Darwinism are several who say that evolution is repeatable i.e. that if it happened again here or elsewhere it would follow the same course. An inescapable conclusion of Darwinian evolution is that evolution would NOT repeat itself due to being driven by random mutation and there being so many possible paths that a random walk could take.
A small excerpt:

Repeatabilty of Evolution

One of the fundamental predictions which rises from Darwinian theory is the impossibility that evolution can reach the same goal twice. Authors as different as Richard Dawkins or Stephen Jay Gould agree on this point: the role of contingency is central in the evolutionary process (the ‘bullet’ is always shot randomly) and there are so many possible targets (”the range of possibilities is almost infinite”), that it is unthinkable that the process of evolution, if it really rests on the Darwinians mechanisms, can produce the same result twice. In theory, if one received an image coming from another planet, the simple presence of a cat or a dog would be enough to disprove Darwinism. However for the three authors whom we gather in this school, evolution must more or less follow identical paths in different places.

I encourage everyone to read the paper. One might also be well served to compare and contrast these non-Darwinian schools of thought with Doctor Davison’s Prescribed Evolutionary Hypothesis, also on the sidebar. I think you’ll find that Davison’s conclusions are largely compatible with some of the European thinking (although I might wrong on that and I’d like Doctor Davison to chime in on that score if he would take the time to review Staune’s paper).

I’ll close this with another small excerpt from Staune:

What about “ Intelligent Design ”?

If Intelligent Design theorists recognize that all living beings have a common ancestor, Intelligent Design is nothing more than a particular school of thought of non-Darwinian evolutionist biology of the type: “ non random macro mutation ” similar to Schutzenberger, Denton and Chauvin’s ideas. But more extreme than them. Non-Darwinians of this sort say that we need to include something able to coordinate or channel the macro mutations (like meteorologists need a more global concept on Pluto which obliges them revisit all their world views but do not include the direct intervention of a designer) to really understand how evolution works. These scientists will not claim that this is evidence of a Creator even if it is fully compatible with such a concept.

If Intelligent Design rejects the idea of common ancestry, or even if, Intelligent Design is “ agnostic ” concerning this idea, it would be a catastrophe for any sort of non-Darwinian way of thinking. Recent history fully demonstrates that if you deny the existence of common ancestry, the concluding result of your action will be the reenforcement of Darwinism. The existence of common ancestry is a thing of the past and not of the present. Evolution cannot be established as much as for example, the fact that the Earth revolves around the Sun but evolution is as well established as possible for a phenomenon that belongs to the past. To deny it is to re-enforce Darwinism and to discredit the non-Darwinian school of thought.

Comments
In the above, please read "non-repeatability" for "non-repeatedly."RealTrialLawyer
September 21, 2006
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Well, I won't get sidetracked onto how it plays into the design vs. selection discussion, but Dawkins doesn't necessarily defend either contingency or non-repeatedly as vigorously as the original post claims. Read the narrator's final remarks in "The Ancestor's Tale." Using some of the same examples as advanced here (convergence on similar niches and phenotypes in separate lineages--dinosaurs, marsupials, placental mammals), he makes some of these same points. In his own nonrepeatable way, of course...RealTrialLawyer
September 21, 2006
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Karl Pfluger's earlier posts about nested hierarchies and such, got me to thinking, once again, about Darwin's "Tree of Life". It's such a weird notion, really. The way he diagrams what he sees as “variation” is truly quite interesting. Almost 400 pages, and only one diagram. What's even more interesting is that the diagram he includes is only for one “branching event”, if I may so term it. I did an exercise of EXTENDING Darwin's diagram. I was convinced that extending this one “branching event” would not result in a "tree", but rather a bush. And lo, and behold, after I copied his diagram a dozen times, and pasted them together onto a large sized poster board, while lining up 'bottoms' and 'tops', out emerged a......BUSH. It looked like a shrub And, of course, since most evolution happens in the vertebrate line of Chordates, you also have to take into account this one long, protruding branch that sticks out to the one side, in a completely unbalanced way, considering, on the other side the various kingdoms of bacteria that, as cell types, hardly go anywhere. Well, it's a quite a stretch to call this thing a tree. But now there's more trouble in Darwin-ville. And that's because Karl's 'nested hierarchy' arguments got me to thinking, and imagining, through all this stuff again. Darwin says that a "tree" emerges due to nature "trimming" away certain species (whereas, in the strange world of Darwinism, certain species make it all the way to becoming an “order"—the spot just below Classes of animals. Hard to believe? Let me quote Darwin himself (In Oxford World Classics, 1996, 2nd Ed. of the Origins, p. 103): “I see no reason to limit the process of modification, as now explained to the formation of genera alone. . . . the two little groups of genera will form two distinct families, or even orders, according to the amount of divergent modification supposed to be represented in the diagram.) Well, as I said, Darwin thought of nature, and selection, as being like a gardener who trims away certain biological forms, while retaining others. These retained forms, according to his theory, then go on to produce more diversified forms and so forth. That's is the notion of common descent that Darwinists suppose. Now, the idea lurking beneath Darwin’s hypothesis that "species" give rise to an "order", is that of a branch. So, now, a “thought experiment”, if you will. Just imagine being a very small tree rodent. You climb up the trunk (but it's actually a bush!!), you encounter a large branch; you decide to go out a little bit on the large branch, and then you run into a somewhat smaller branch; you go out on that one until you reach another even smaller branch, so on, and so on, until you're at the very outside edge of the tree--where all extant species (analogously) are to be found. Well, I’ve just described a “real” tree, and it’s a nice image. However, I now propose if possible, that we take a return trip from extant, living “species” to the “orders”, “classes” and “phyla” that they must belong to if, in fact, they belong to a “nested hierarchy.” The reason I say, "if possible", is because we're going to run into a problem. The problem is this: as we--small tree-climbing rodents that we are--go from the outermost twigs, to somewhat large twigs, all is fine. And when we try to go from larger twigs to small branches, depending on what part of the "tree" you're on (by analogy, how numerous the genus you find yourself in), all might still be going fine--although it may not. But as we try to get to larger branches, well, what do you know, THEY DON'T EXIST. THEY'RE NOT THERE!!! What am I talking about? I'm talking about "nested hierarchies" and "missing links". All that which "links" up this tree of life--amongst classes, but certainly amongst phyla--is gone, missing, no where to be found. And there's an even bigger problem. There's no trunk!! Nada! Zilch! Darwin talks--in the last sentence of the Origins--about life having been “originally breathed by the Creator into a few forms, or into one”. (Just as an aside. For all you Darwinists, if you want to insist on asking the question, "Who is this Designer you ID people keep talking about?", well, Darwin gives us the answer: it's the Creator!) From this one, or several, form(s), all of life is derived. Well, where is/are this(these) form(s) in the Fossil Record? No where to be found. And the "missing links"? No where to be found. So, what we really have--since the Fossil Record, contrary to Darwin's expectations, and, by his own reckoning, a damning condemnation of his theory--are "twigs and small branches" hanging in the middle of the air. It's a Pseudo-Tree!! It’s not a real tree. It’s a tree that can only be imagined. As with all of Darwinism, from the outside it looks like a real object, but when inspected, it's found to be a complete illusion. Magic is the art of using cleverness to fool people into believing that you've done the impossible. Darwinism is the art of using cleverness to fool people into believing that the impossible has happened. It’s Voodoo science, you see. As my “thought experiment” illustrates, our understanding of common descent needs to be somewhat supple owing to the fact that the branches aren’t there—they’re only inferred. Discrete steps can—and likely were—taken. We live in a quantum, not Newtonian, world. Darwinism ought to keep up.PaV
September 21, 2006
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Well come on Chris Hyland. Mention my name and quote me directly at "After the Pub Closes," Esley Welsberry's private little inner sanctum, flame pit and "groupthink," head-nodding, auto-congratulating sewing circle. Just think, you could be the first. What an opportunity. Don't pass it up. It is your chance to achieve lasting fame. The worst that could happen to you would be a slap on the wrist from Der Fuhrer Herr Doktor Professor Esley Welsberry (prononced Velsberry). Don't tell me you are afraid of the big bad fisheries biologist and widely published, internationally recognized evolutionary theorist, Esley Welsberry, or are you? We will soon see won't we? You can bet we won't! Darwimps are like that. "Conscience doth make cowards of YOU all." after Shakespeare What I love most about "After the Bar Closes" is the way Welsberry proudly and invariably signs off with Dorothy Parker's perfectly incriminating characterization of his own posture - ** YOU CAN"T TEACH AN OLD DOGMA NEW TRICKS** It is hard to believe isn't it? I love it so! I'll leave a light on for you. Don't disappoint me. "A past evolution is undeniable, a present evolution undemonstrable." John A. DavisonJohn A. Davison
September 21, 2006
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John A. Davison, "Life span is just one more factor that never had anything to to do with organic evolution." It would appear that the cytochrome C gene would agree with you.bFast
September 21, 2006
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Hawk: mike1962: "“Chance” is nothing more than a gap in our knowledge. No more. No less. If you substitute “chance” with “gap in our knowledge” in the above sentense, the ridiculousness should become apparent. “Scientists have long wondered how much of a role something that is a gap in our knowledge plays in evolution”.” Hawk: "Let me play this empty rhetoric game as well. To paraphrase the last sentence above: “IDists have long wondered how much of a role something that is a gap in our knowledge can have in pushing an ideological viewpoint”. Gee, that was fun!" I'm glad you're having fun, but you obviously miss the point. And your "paraphrase" is not a paraphrase.mike1962
September 21, 2006
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Life span is just one more factor that never had anything to to do with organic evolution. The line that led to the present day elephant species evolved no more slowly than any other series. With a 22 month gestation period, elephants are one of the most numerous of the large mammals in Africa and one of the most destructive of their habitat. Reproductive potential and rate never had anything to do with evolution either. That is all just more Darwinian, unverified mysticism. The entire process was planned and is now terminated. By the way, has anyone tried to hybridize the African and Indian elephants? I should know this but I don't. It is hard to believe isn't it? I love it so "A past evolution is undeniable, a present evolution undemonstrable." John A. DavisonJohn A. Davison
September 21, 2006
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Chris Hyland There is no "punctuated model." The "model" presents no mechanism and is lttle more than a meaningless catch phrase describing what paleontologists have always known - evolution, when it did occur, always occurred in spurts. Also why do you keep bringing up mutations? They never played any role except to ensure extinction. Evolution was always an emergent, internally controlled phenomenon in which the environment played, at best, the trivial role as a stimulus for a prescribed, prescheduled potential. Get with the program. Or better yet, go back to "After the Bar Closes" and quote me. No one else has and you probably won't either. Der Fuhrer, Herr Doktor Professor Esley Welsberry (pronounced Velsberry) wouldn't approve of it don't you know. It is hard to believe isn't it? I love it so. "A past evolution is undeniable, a present evolution udemonstrable." John A. DavisonJohn A. Davison
September 21, 2006
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Karl Pfluger: "Sorry, bFast, I should have been more explicit." What can I say, its not like me to miss a perfectly good play on words. I'm just not used to referring to breakfast as b-fast.
Example: if we reran evolution, snow would still be white. Therefore we would expect natural selection to favor polar animals with white coloration, regardless of any other differences from the current crop of polar bears, snow hares, etcetera.
Certainly there should, according to NDE, be a certain amount, even a significant amount, of convergence. When I consider the streamlined similarity between the dolphin and the shark, I say "that's expected." However, I think that the amount of convergence has been really quite surprising to the scientific community. I think of Simon Conway Morris's book, "Life's Solution." His study of convergence suggests that contingency plays a minimal role. Also, we see a surprising parallel between the marsupials and the placentals, as discussed elsewhere on this forum. I have made it a personal hobby to examine pentadactylism. This phenomenon is near universal amongst quadrupeds. It appears, however, that pentadactylism appeared at two separate points on the phylogenic tree. In "Eight Little Piggies", Gould writes about this phenomenon extensively. He suggests that the tanacity of pentadactylism is surprising and worthy of study. The studies that have been done have shown that a single point mutation creates polydactylism. Yet nature has not implemented it as the norm for any living species. (Prior to nature settling on 5, there were 6 and 8 toed animals, there was one lizzard skeleton found with 6 toes, but one example does not prove that it was not just a mutant. Man, dogs, mice and cats all exibit a polydactyl mutation.) I was intrigued by your discussion about front-loading. In general I agree with you that NDE must produce a "perfect" phylogenic tree (with the exception of the effects of HGT). I agree also that front-loading could produce such a tree, but is not bound to it. Your suggestion that front-loading explains everything, therefore it explains nothing has some merit. However, I charge that NDE does not do a good job of explaining some of the evidence. I think of Denton's discussion of the cytochrome C protein. The thing paints an almost perfect phylogenic tree. Denton shows that there is only one way that the cytochrome C's tree could be so perfect -- the molecular clock hypotheses has to work perfectly within that context. Now, as the role that the cytochrome C plays in all organisms is consistant, the molecular clock hypothesis isn't blown out of the water at the first whack. However, from what I have read, the scope of the molecular clock hypothesis has been severely restricted by studies. It would seem, for instance, that the insects with their short lifespans, should be more suseptible to genetic drift than the mammals. Yet the cytochrome C has drifed the same amount from the pea in the fruit fly as in the elephant. In truth the cytochrome C seems to defy an NDE based interpretation. I can think of another half-dozen similar challenges to NDE, but I want to get this post submitted.bFast
September 21, 2006
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I've posted a few comments in this thread - have they been trapped as spam or not approved for some reason?todd
September 21, 2006
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"The real problem is that we all mostly AGREE with you that Darwinian evolution must be gradual. The indisputable testimony of the fossil record however is one of long periods of stasis where no evolution occurs, a great number of rapid extinctions, and a great number of instantaneous appearances of fully differentiated new species which then remain the same until they go extinct. So you really shot yourself in the foot when you say that random mutation must needs be a gradual process and then have the fossil record show that isn’t how it went down." The problem here is the difference between scale of individual mutations and the scale of species change. Punctuated equilibrium says that evolution proceeds with long periods of stasis followed by relatively fast periods of change, but this doesn't mean that all the mutations that occured in these periods had large phenotypic effects or were 'hopeful monster' mutations. Of course they weren't all tiny allelic mutations either, but most likely on a continuum in between. None of this has much to do with the pace of species evolution though, and several recent devlopments have supported the punctuated model.Chris Hyland
September 21, 2006
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Nevertheless, a monophyletic evolution is far from established and there are plenty of reasons to question it, questions that still remain unanswered. One thing is certain - nothing in evolution ever took place gradually just as nothing does in ontogeny. Like every genetic change, those involved in phylogeny were instantaneous events without intermediate states. In physiology it is known as the "All or None Law." It is equally true for both phylogeny and ontogeny. "A past evolution is undeniable, a present evolution undemonstrable." John A. DavisonJohn A. Davison
September 21, 2006
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joseph I am sorry but it most definitely is NOT true that common descent CANNOT explain the differences. While common descent has not yet been proven, it most certainly has not been disproven and nothing you or anyone else says will alter that. It will remain the explanation of choice until proven to be otherwise. Words have meaning and should be used cautiously or not at all. "A past evolution is undeniable, a present evolution undemonstrable." John A. DavisonJohn A. Davison
September 21, 2006
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Joseph asks:
Why would common descent predict a common tree? Who says the genomes would preserve/ conserve anything that could later be used as such markers?
Joseph, This is hard to explain without drawing a diagram, so I refer you to the following explanation from Douglas Theobald (taken from http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/comdesc/section1.html#nested_hierarchy ): As seen from the phylogeny in Figure 1, the predicted pattern of organisms at any given point in time can be described as "groups within groups", otherwise known as a nested hierarchy. The only known processes that specifically generate unique, nested, hierarchical patterns are branching evolutionary processes. Common descent is a genetic process in which the state of the present generation/individual is dependent only upon genetic changes that have occurred since the most recent ancestral population/individual. Therefore, gradual evolution from common ancestors must conform to the mathematics of Markov processes and Markov chains. Using Markovian mathematics, it can be rigorously proven that branching Markovian replicating systems produce nested hierarchies (Givnish and Sytsma 1997; Harris 1989; Norris 1997). For these reasons, biologists routinely use branching Markov chains to effectively model evolutionary processes, including complex genetic processes, the temporal distributions of surnames in populations (Galton and Watson 1874), and the behavior of pathogens in epidemics. The nested hierarchical organization of species contrasts sharply with other possible biological patterns, such as the continuum of "the great chain of being" and the continuums predicted by Lamarck's theory of organic progression (Darwin 1872, pp. 552-553; Futuyma 1998, pp. 88-92). Mere similarity between organisms is not enough to support macroevolution; the nested classification pattern produced by a branching evolutionary process, such as common descent, is much more specific than simple similarity. Real world examples that cannot be objectively classified in nested hierarchies are the elementary particles (which are described by quantum chromodynamics), the elements (whose organization is described by quantum mechanics and illustrated by the periodic table), the planets in our Solar System, books in a library, or specially designed objects like buildings, furniture, cars, etc.Karl Pfluger
September 21, 2006
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Hi, Dave. You wrote:
In a common design scenario a designer could launch a new design directly from an existing design using all the same components and modifying only those needed to accomplish the new design goals. In fact that’s usually what happens in computer design which I spent decades doing.
True, a designer could do that. But he is not constrained to do that. He could also choose one of hundreds of alternative approaches. For example, he could modify dozens of components at once or swap entire subsystems between otherwise unrelated designs. Common design is far, far less constrained than Darwinian evolution, and that's the problem. Because it is so unconstrained, common design does not predict the evidence, since it is compatible with any possible body of evidence. On the other hand, common descent through natural selection does make a prediction, and the prediction turns out to be correct.
Comparing different proteins from the same sets of organisms yields different phylogenetic trees.
Different but extremely similar, and the degree of similarity is way beyond what could occur purely by chance if common descent were not true. The mathematics of this is very interesting. I'll post a link if I can find a reference which explains it.
All that said, I don’t doubt for a second that common descent is as true as anything that happened in the past can be known to be true.
We're in complete agreement on that.
You begin by saying that a front-loaded design could go from a weasel to an elephant in a few generations. For the sake of argument let’s say that’s possible. Then in a huge non sequitur brainfart you say that since we haven’t observed such a transition it means that front loaded evolution must be false.
I'm not saying that FLE could only be validated by a weasel-to-elephant transition. I'm saying that it, like common design, is compatible with weasel-to-elephant transitions and a zillion other scenarios of common descent. NDE, by contrast, is compatible with (and therefore predicts) only an extremely limited subset of those scenarios. Reality happens to match the predictions of NDE.
The indisputable testimony of the fossil record however is one of long periods of stasis where no evolution occurs, a great number of rapid extinctions, and a great number of instantaneous appearances of fully differentiated new species which then remain the same until they go extinct.
Those "instantaneous" appearances you speak of are instantaneous only with respect to the plodding geological timescale. There is plenty of time for evolution to happen during those "instants". We know that the rate of evolutionary change is actually very rapid. It's just that selective pressures don't change as quickly, so changes tend to oscillate within certain bounds, giving the appearance of stasis (beak lengths on the Galapagos finches are the classic example of this). Also, speciation tends to happen in small, isolated populations which have less chance of leaving fossils for us to discover.
Since invoking an intelligent agency is indeed bad form in science, if you must do it, do it sparingly. One time four or more billion years ago is as sparing as sparing gets.
Actually, zero times is as sparing as sparing gets. :-)Karl Pfluger
September 21, 2006
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DaveScot, "If evolution is unrepeatable, chance and necessity can explain that. If evolution is repeatable, chance and necessity can explain that too. Chance and necessity can explain all observations. And these same folks poke fun at a God that can do anything. Too funny. Chance and necessity is the atheist’s God-substitute. Chance and necessity is the dogma of the Darwinian Church. It stopped being science a long time ago. " Evolution would have a hard time explaining a human giving birth to a dog. ID wouldn't. But then ID never was a science.Hawks
September 21, 2006
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mike1962, "“Chance” is nothing more than a gap in our knowledge. No more. No less. If you substitute “chance” with “gap in our knowledge” in the above sentense, the ridiculousness should become apparent. “Scientists have long wondered how much of a role something that is a gap in our knowledge plays in evolution”." Let me play this empty rhetoric game as well. To paraphrase the last sentence above: “IDists have long wondered how much of a role something that is a gap in our knowledge can have in pushing an ideological viewpoint”. Gee, that was fun!Hawks
September 21, 2006
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Karl P: Conclusion: Common descent via natural selection predicts a common tree, which is exactly what the evidence shows. Common design makes no such prediction, and could be invoked to explain any pattern of evidence. Why would common descent predict a common tree? Who says the genomes would preserve/ conserve anything that could later be used as such markers? Common design doesn't predict everything. It predicts there will be common features in all genomes. And that makes sense. What common descent needs to explain, and has not because it cannot, are the differneces.Joseph
September 21, 2006
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Personally I think it was longer ago than that and the radiation of life on this planet is just one generation in a larger scale evolution where life is radiating across interstellar divides. Of course some planet has to be the first and we could be it but I cling tenaciously to the Copernican Principle of Mediocrity and presume no special creation for the earth but rather that it's just one instantiation of something that is not uncommon. My Copernican view however is weakening by the day as SETI finds nothing and things like "The Privileged Planet" offer strong arguments that the earth is indeed very special. I'm not married to any particular worldview but I was engaged and planned to be married to the Copernican worldview. It's a traumatic and emotional parting but one must follow the evidence wherever it leads in science.DaveScot
September 21, 2006
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Karl I'm not quite sure I buy your argument in 1. In a common design scenario a designer could launch a new design directly from an existing design using all the same components and modifying only those needed to accomplish the new design goals. In fact that's usually what happens in computer design which I spent decades doing. The wheel doesn't get reinvented nearly as often as it gets a minor improvement that is only very marginally different from the old version. Selection pressure operates in exactly the same manner in computer design as it does in organic design. You well know, or should know, that varying selection pressure causes different proteins to fix mutations at different rates. A veritable cottage industry has sprung up around trying to calibrate so-called molecular clocks which instead of ticking at the same rate as was first hoped for all tick at wildly different rates. Comparing different proteins from the same sets of organisms yields different phylogenetic trees. All that said, I don't doubt for a second that common descent is as true as anything that happened in the past can be known to be true. Your argument against front-loaded evolution is really bad. You begin by saying that a front-loaded design could go from a weasel to an elephant in a few generations. For the sake of argument let's say that's possible. Then in a huge non sequitur brainfart you say that since we haven't observed such a transition it means that front loaded evolution must be false. Time after time we've pointed out to you that phylogeny is a process that mirrors ontogeny only on different timescales. What you see in ontogeny, the rapid diversification of a single cell into hundreds of different types from bone to neuron, organized into scores of different tissue types from tendon to nerve, which themselves organize into dozens of different organs from skin to brain, and which then arrange themselves into one of many distinct body plans is almost exactly what happened in phloygenesis except the gestational period is in hundreds of millions of years instead of tens of days. You assertion that random mutations must be gradual is practically true but technically false. Exposure to mutagenic chemicals and radiation can cause massive simultaneous mutations. The probability that such a massive number of random mutations won't include a fatal one is small but it is still non-zero. The real problem is that we all mostly AGREE with you that Darwinian evolution must be gradual. The indisputable testimony of the fossil record however is one of long periods of stasis where no evolution occurs, a great number of rapid extinctions, and a great number of instantaneous appearances of fully differentiated new species which then remain the same until they go extinct. So you really shot yourself in the foot when you say that random mutation must needs be a gradual process and then have the fossil record show that isn't how it went down. A mechanism which allows for saltation, stasis, then extinction is what is demanded by the fossil record. Random mutation & natural selection doesn't fit for exactly the reasons you put forward. The only mechanisms I have seen that ring possibly true is interference from an intelligent agent at God only knows how many points along the way OR a front loaded mechanism where an intelligent agent need only have acted once in the entire history of the universe. Since invoking an intelligent agency is indeed bad form in science, if you must do it, do it sparingly. One time four or more billion years ago is as sparing as sparing gets. Personally I think it was longer ago than that and the radiation of life on this planet is just one generation in a larger scale evolution where life is radiating across interstellar divides.DaveScot
September 21, 2006
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comment #95 by StephenA I am a Creationist with a capital C. Why everyone isn't is a mystery to me. The only things that we don't know for certain are how many Creators there were, how many creations there were, and how many times and places they took place. As I have explained elsewhere here, I feel we can account for a common ancestry for the members of the Order Primates to which we belong. I regard that as a given. How much further this can be established I am sure will be determined one way or the other. Until it is, the only reasonable position is to remain open to the "possibility" of separate independent creations. I doubt very much if there were as many creations as there are present Orders of animals, yet it is precisely at that taxonomic level that some very large gaps appear not only in the fossil record but at the level of DNA content per cell, cell size, mode of sexual reproduction, basic morphology, origin of germ cells and God only knows how many other differences for which intermediate states are not evident. These several gaps are expecially evident when one compares the two major orders of the Amphibia, the Urodela (salamanders and newts) with the Anura (frogs and toads). They are so great that I think these two groups should be elevated to separate Vertebrate Classes. I doubt that will be done however. In the Mammalia, the differences between Orders are not nearly so great although just as apparently discontinuous as Order differences are anywhere in the Animal kingdom. The differences in the plant Divisions are even greater and their origins just as mysterious. There is absolutely no convincing evidence that any plant Division can be derived from another one. In my opinion, the same can be said for the animal Phyla. That does not mean that I am convinced that each was separately created, but I am not prepared to deny that possibility on the basis of our present knowledge. If others are certain of a monophlyletic evolution I say good for them. Be prepared to prove it. "Im from Wisconsin and I have to be showed." John A. Davison Without ever really explaining what he meant, Leo Berg offered the following on the last page of Nomogenesis. "Organisms have developed from tens of thousands of primary forms. i.e, polyphyletically." Far be it from me to reject out of hand the opinion of Leo Berg, without question the greatest Russian biologist of his generation and, in my opinion, the greatest evolutionist of all time. I am quite certain he was not a Bblical Creationist. Neither am I nor were any of my other sources. That said, it is certainly not impossible that a kernel of truth might reside in the notion of Biblical "kinds." "A past evolution is undeniable, a present evolution undemonstrable." John A. DavisonJohn A. Davison
September 21, 2006
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On this thread and elsewhere at UD, I'm seeing signs that folks are missing some fundamental truths about common descent, Darwinian evolution, and intelligent design: 1. Common descent via natural selection and common design are not equally valid interpretations of the evidence. I frequently hear the argument that the evidence cannot distinguish between common descent vs. common design. Not true, and here's an example which shows the difference: Gather a bunch of different species, analyze hundreds of their proteins for similarities and differences, and draw the resulting phylogenetic trees. You'll find that the trees agree with each other, to within the margin predicted by chance. Now gather a bunch of different computers and perform the same sort of analysis, based on different components of the computer (processor, chipset, hard drive, motherboard, etc.). The phylogenetic tree you get based on processors will not match the tree you get for the power supplies, the one for hard drives, or the one for DRAMs. Some degree of common design could be invoked to explain either scenario. In fact, some degree of common design could explain any scenario. Common design explains everything, and therefore nothing. Contrast this with common descent via natural selection. It nicely explains the common phylogenetic tree of the different species, but is helpless to explain the divergent trees of the computers. Conclusion: Common descent via natural selection predicts a common tree, which is exactly what the evidence shows. Common design makes no such prediction, and could be invoked to explain any pattern of evidence. 2. Either Darwinian evolution is occurring, or the designer chose to make things appear as if Darwinian evolution were occurring. The example above shows that the evidence fits neatly with the idea of common descent via natural selection. Anticipating an objection from DaveScot, what about front-loaded evolution? Doesn't it also predict common descent, and therefore match the evidence? Front-loaded evolution does predict common descent. However, it does not predict the tree pattern we see. Why? Because front-loaded evolution is not restricted to making genetic changes one at a time, the way natural selection via mutation is. Think about it. Under a front-loaded scheme, a weasel could be transformed into an elephant within a few generations. The front-loaded mechanism, once triggered, can make massive changes, turning on some portions of the genome and turning off others. Two species with a common ancestor need not share any genes in common under a front-loaded scheme. Darwinian evolution could not possibly proceed this way, because the odds of getting so many simultaneous coordinated mutation are minuscule. A front-loaded scheme could even explain a pattern like we saw with the computers in our previous example. Front-loading is compatible with any possible phylogenetic relationship -- therefore it explains none of them. Could the evidence still be explained by front-loading? Sure, but only if we posit that the designer chose to make it appear that Darwinian evolution was occurring. Conclusion: Darwinian evolution fits the phylogenetic evidence much better than front-loading. 3. It is design (of both the front-loaded and 'tinkering' forms) that explains everything, and therefore nothing, because any conceivable world is compatible with design. Far fewer worlds are compatible with Darwinian evolution, yet ours happens to be one of them. 4. Front-loaded evolution and Darwinian evolution do not fit the data equally well.Karl Pfluger
September 21, 2006
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JasontheGreek wrote:
Some animal with a mutation living longer than its neighbors doesn’t suddenly make the entire process non-random. It is completely random.
Jason, You're assuming that short-term randomness precludes long-term predictability, but it ain't so. Imagine you blow up a balloon and then let the air out. The path of a given air molecule is random, but you can absolutely count on the fact that air will flow out of the balloon due to the pressure differential. Similarly, the survival or death of a desert horned lizard may be random and unrelated to its superb camouflage. It may get run over by a car, for example. But you can still count on the fact that over time, horned lizards with better camouflage will tend to predominate. Ditto for antibiotic and pesticide resistance. 'Selective pressure' is a particularly apt phrase for this phenomenon. Just as air pressure causes air to flow out of the balloon, without forcing any individual molecule to follow a particular path, so selective pressure determines the overall direction of the population, without dictating that certain individuals must live or die.Karl Pfluger
September 20, 2006
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Me to bFast:
I always think of scrambled eggs and orange juice when I see your name.
bFast to me:
What the heck do you mean by that?
Sorry, bFast, I should have been more explicit. Your name looks like an abbreviation of the word 'breakfast': b-fast. "Dude, I'm starved, let's go grab some b-fast." bFast:
I agree with Gould that contingency — if we rewound the tape the results would be dramatically different — is an essential effect of neo-darwinian evolution.
I think Gould overemphasized the role of contingency in evolution (and many evolutionists agree). In any case, the fact is that if you were able to rerun evolution, non-random selective pressures would still channel evolutionary change in certain directions. Example: if we reran evolution, snow would still be white. Therefore we would expect natural selection to favor polar animals with white coloration, regardless of any other differences from the current crop of polar bears, snow hares, etcetera. Darwinian evolution is perfectly compatible with predictability of this kind.Karl Pfluger
September 20, 2006
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"Natural selection is very real. What it does is religiously preserve that which appeared full blown as a novel life form. Natural selection played no role whatsoever in the creation of that new life form. Got that? " For a moment there John you sounded just like a Creationist talking about Biblical 'kinds'. (For those of you not familiar with creationism, kinds are not the same as species. Kinds are generally believed to be around the Family level of classification. Common descent is usually accepted for the levels below that.)StephenA
September 20, 2006
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John Davison: "It explains nothing except the production of intraspecific varieties, none of which are incipient species." Amen.PaV
September 20, 2006
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Karl Pfluger: "bFast (I always think of scrambled eggs and orange juice when I see your name)" What the heck do you mean by that? "you seem to be thinking that predictability per se is evidence again Darwinian evolution." If what you mean by predictability that "if we rewound the tape we would get a rather similar result" This is a correct statement. I agree with Gould that contingency -- if we rewound the tape the results would be dramatically different -- is an essential effect of neo-darwinian evolution.bFast
September 20, 2006
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"And it’s a pretty good clue, along with consciousness itself, that something wild and interesting is going on around here. I’m not quite sure what." I like that!avocationist
September 20, 2006
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DaveScot: "Personally I do think the universe is deterministic up to a point. That point is somewhere in the evolution of life. I’m not sure exactly where but by the time evolution gets to us, free will has been introduced into the universe and the tyranny of determinism ends there." That sounds pretty good to me. And the reason is does is because of the fact of my own consciousness, and the utter inability of reason to place it within spacetime as a product. When all is said and done, my consciousness is the starting place, and the productions of mere reason can never trump its place in reality. For me, it's self-evident proof that "miracles" occur, and that pure determinism is false. I know you're still undecided about all that. From a standpoint of pure reason, determinism must be "true", else reason ultimately fails, because reason can only deal with determinism at the bottom of the turtle pile or else stand forever in the dark. That's the clear choice. And it's a pretty good clue, along with consciousness itself, that something wild and interesting is going on around here. I'm not quite sure what. Thanks for listening.mike1962
September 20, 2006
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Dr. Davison, I think I got that, and I share your sentiment here as well: "Oddly enough, I love it so!"Charlie
September 20, 2006
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