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Kevin Padian: The Archie Bunker Professor of Paleobiology at Cal Berkeley

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Kevin Padian’s review in NATURE of several recent books on the Dover trial says more about Padian and NATURE than it does about the books under review. Indeed, the review and its inclusion in NATURE are emblematic of the new low to which the scientific community has sunk in discussing ID. Bigotry, cluelessness, and misrepresentation don’t matter so long as the case against ID is made with sufficient vigor and vitriol.

Judge Jones, who headed the Pennsylvania Liquor Control Board before assuming a federal judgeship, is now a towering intellectual worthy of multiple honorary doctorates on account of his Dover decision, which he largely cribbed from the ACLU’s and NCSE’s playbook. Kevin Padian, for his yeoman’s service in the cause of defeating ID, is no doubt looking at an endowed chair at Berkeley and membership in the National Academy of Sciences. And that for a man who betrays no more sophistication in critiquing ID than Archie Bunker.

Kevin Padian and Archie Bunker

For Padian’s review, see NATURE 448, 253-254 (19 July 2007) | doi:10.1038/448253a; Published online 18 July 2007, available online here. For a response by David Tyler to Padian’s historical revisionism, go here.

One of the targets of Padian’s review is me. Here is Padian’s take on my work: “His [Dembski’s] notion of ‘specified complexity’, a probabilistic filter that allegedly allows one to tell whether an event is so impossible that it requires supernatural explanation, has never demonstrably received peer review, although its description in his popular books (such as No Free Lunch, Rowman & Littlefield, 2001) has come in for withering criticism from actual mathematicians.”

Well, actually, my work on the explanatory filter first appeared in my book THE DESIGN INFERENCE, which was a peer-reviewed monograph with Cambridge University Press (Cambridge Studies in Probability, Induction, and Decision Theory). This work was also the subject of my doctoral dissertation from the University of Illinois. So the pretense that this work was not properly vetted is nonsense.

As for “the withering criticism” of my work “from actual mathematicians,” which mathematicians does Padian have in mind? Does he mean Jeff Shallit, whose expertise is in computational number theory, not probability theory, and who, after writing up a hamfisted critique of my book NO FREE LUNCH, has explicitly notified me that he henceforth refuses to engage my subsequent technical work (see my technical papers on the mathematical foundations of ID at www.designinference.com as well as the papers at www.evolutionaryinformatics.org)? Does Padian mean Wesley Elsberry, Shallit’s sidekick, whose PhD is from the wildlife fisheries department at Texas A&M? Does Padian mean Richard Wein, whose 50,000 word response to my book NO FREE LUNCH is widely cited — Wein holds no more than a bachelors degree in statistics? Does Padian mean Elliott Sober, who is a philosopher and whose critique of my work along Bayesian lines is itself deeply problematic (for my response to Sober go here). Does he mean Thomas Schneider, who is a biologist who dabbles in information theory and not very well at that (see my “withering critique” with Bob Marks of his work on the evolution of nucleotide binding sites here). Does he mean David Wolpert, a co-discoverer of the NFL theorems? Wolpert had some nasty things to say about my book NO FREE LUNCH, but the upshot was that my ideas there were not sufficiently developed mathematically for him to critique them. But as I indicated in that book, it was about sketching an intellectual program rather than filling in the details, which would await further work (as is being done at Robert Marks’s Evolutionary Informatics Lab — www.evolutionaryinformatics.org).

The record of mathematical criticism of my work remains diffuse and unconvincing. On the flip side, there are plenty of mathematicians and mathematically competent scientists, who have found my work compelling and whose stature exceeds that of my critics:

John Lennox, who is a mathematician on the faculty of the University of Oxford and is debating Richard Dawkins in October on the topic of whether science has rendered God obsolete (see here for the debate), has this to say about my book NO FREE LUNCH: “In this important work Dembski applies to evolutionary theory the conceptual apparatus of the theory of intelligent design developed in his acclaimed book The Design Inference. He gives a penetrating critical analysis of the current attempt to underpin the neo-Darwinian synthesis by means of mathematics. Using recent information-theoretic “no free lunch” theorems, he shows in particular that evolutionary algorithms are by their very nature incapable of generating the complex specified information which lies at the heart of living systems. His results have such profound implications, not only for origin of life research and macroevolutionary theory, but also for the materialistic or naturalistic assumptions that often underlie them, that this book is essential reading for all interested in the leading edge of current thinking on the origin of information.”

Moshe Koppel, an Israeli mathematician at Bar-Ilan University, has this to say about the same book: “Dembski lays the foundations for a research project aimed at answering one of the most fundamental scientific questions of our time: what is the maximal specified complexity that can be reasonably expected to emerge (in a given time frame) with and without various design assumptions.”

Frank Tipler, who holds joint appointments in mathematics and physics at Tulane, has this to say about the book: “In No Free Lunch, William Dembski gives the most profound challenge to the Modern Synthetic Theory of Evolution since this theory was first formulated in the 1930s. I differ from Dembski on some points, mainly in ways which strengthen his conclusion.”

Paul Davies, a physicist with solid math skills, says this about my general project of detecting design: “Dembski’s attempt to quantify design, or provide mathematical criteria for design, is extremely useful. I’m concerned that the suspicion of a hidden agenda is going to prevent that sort of work from receiving the recognition it deserves. Strictly speaking, you see, science should be judged purely on the science and not on the scientist.” Apparently Padian disagrees.

Finally, Texas A&M awarded me the Trotter Prize jointly with Stuart Kauffman in 2005 for my work on design detection. The committee that recommended the award included individuals with mathematical competence. By the way, other recipients of this award include Charlie Townes, Francis Crick, Alan Guth, John Polkinghorne, Paul Davies, Robert Shapiro, Freeman Dyson, Bill Phillips, and Simon Conway Morris.

Do I expect a retraction from NATURE or an apology from Padian? I’m not holding my breath. It seems that the modus operandi of ID critics is this: Imagine what you would most like to be wrong with ID and its proponents and then simply, bald-facedly accuse ID and its proponents of being wrong in that way. It’s called wish-fulfillment. Would it help to derail ID to characterize Dembski as a mathematical klutz. Then characterize him as a mathematical klutz. As for providing evidence for that claim, don’t bother. If NATURE requires no evidence, then certainly the rest of the scientific community bears no such burden.

Comments
PS: I poked around Prof Olofsson's web site and came across this article [under his ID section] which was apparently published in Skeptical Inquirer magazine. On the strength of that article, it seems that Prof Olofsson is part of the circle of those who have misrepresented ID in public repeatedly, using the sort of questionable rhetoric I noted on above. In short,the above interaction with him may be more germane to the core issues of this thread than at first appears.kairosfocus
July 31, 2007
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Cont'd: 5] In noting on Sober, I am pointing you to just such a presentation from the other side of the case, a source that can be accessed through the sidebar's link to Uncommon Descent. There you can see also why I noted that there is another side to the Bayes-Fisher story. And as a Mathematician, surely you know that the accident of chronology does not necessarily show the logical pattern in a process of reasoning. (Cf the "rooting" of Calculus in C19 - 20 after its “practical” emergence in C17.) 6 - 7] The inference across chance, necessity and agency has a 2400 year documented context, and an associated wealth of underlying issues and instances and ties to epistemology, the theory of knowledge. Dembski wrote in that context, which should be explicitly engaged. The reference to bio-systems implicates all that has been discovered from 1953 on about the information systems at the root of biology at cellular level as well. 8] The Caputo case is aptly illustrative of how real world inference to design works, and works reliably. In your addressing of it -- in a fairly lengthy discussion -- you indulged a series of arguments and claims that would be very properly tossed out of court. (In the real world of fact, means, opportunity and motive, we look for moral not demonstrative certainty; and in fact that is all that science is capable of. As a post-Goedel mathematician you can appreciate the point.) 9 - "10"] I see I missed a number! On 9, I was pointing out the sort of configuration spaces we are dealing with and the sort of very generous upper limit on the population of organisms that can have lived in our observed universe across its lifetime. Even such a crude calculation immediately shows how isolated viable life systems are in the config space of just DNA or proteins as potentially informational polymers. In short the strategy of expanding the specification set fails in the relevant case, spectacularly. (And this, through Leslie's "fly on the wall gets hit by a bullet" [cf my always linked] argument, holds even if radically different architectures of life are feasible. All that is required is local isolation, which is what the mutation leads to damage effect shows. In short, and extending Behe, life as we know it is fine-tuned, and such is again a strong and reliable empirical pointer to a Fine-Tuner.) 11] You used the example of getting to a grammatically and semantically functional English text by chance, using techniques to make the config space smaller. I pointed out that absent a serious fine-tuning argument that writes the DNA code etc into the laws of nature, this is an unjustified move relative to the basic standard null position: equiprobable distributions. Such a postulate is foundational to the success of statistical thermodynamics, which is the precise science that addresses the behaviour of molecules in Darwin's still warm pond. In short, I am not so sure as you seem to be, that I have not addressed your points sufficiently for the purposes of this semi-popular level forum, directing you to more serious sources for the technical level discussion. Okay, I will email . . . so we can let the thread remain on focus on Padian, Nature et al. GEM of TKIkairosfocus
July 31, 2007
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Prof Olofsson (And VB): First, thanks for the responses on this "quietening down" thread. Vivid, I bear in mind your concern for side-tracking the thread. However, some of the Padian-NCSE mis-perceptions are still operative, and so there is a need to address here. (Beyond this I suspect that perhaps indeed an email exchange will help and will also send this to Prof Olofsson that way.) I therefore note too, that a core concern above with Prof Padian, head of NCSE, is that the NCSE has trumpeted to the academic, legal, media and educational communities, serious misrepresentations of what the Design movement holds and thence has clouded and poisoned the atmosphere. So this exchange shows the impact of the resulting confused atmosphere, a sad development that nature -- the leading general purpose peer-reviewed scientific journal in the world -- has now unfortunately accommodated within its pages. And, I will not hold my breath waiting for them to publish a correction . . . We need to reckon with that poisonous atmosphere before doing anything else and make a careful effort to clear it before anything serious can be done. PO, unfortunately, you have -- plainly inadvertently (given your onward concerns, protests and surprise) -- drawn from this misleading "consensus" and have consequently used rhetorical devices that fall under the several strictures I made above. In short, the "work" of Padian et al has been effective. So that is lesson 1 from this exchange within the thread: ID is commonly misrepresented and misperceived, so it would be wise to look up and even better interact with original sources before tilting at a strawman. Also, since there are many disciplines which bear with profit on the issue, one would be well advised to bring to bear an inter-disciplinary perspective, partnering with those who are not playing rhetorical games. Now on particular points of interest: 1] IC: You need to address the rhetorical effect of a simplistic and in effect dismissive summary of another's case, at the outset of your own. (That is the notorious strawman fallacy, as just linked.) 2 & 12] ID is not "un-traditional Creationism." It is not Creationism, period -- a point that the Creationists underscore by critiquing ID from their own perspective. ID's classical progenitors are people like Plato, Socrates and Cicero, and the issue of credibly and empirically distinguishing sources of causation across chance, natural regularity and agency. And in light of the above, any resort to the term, becomes namecalling. (if you are unaware that "Creationist" is legally and academically loaded and prejudicial language, you are unfamiliar indeed with the ongoing discussion. But then, a long time ago, a lot of people were not aware that a certain N word was a term of contempt in most contexts.) 3] Similarly, many ID advocates [and Creationists!]accept NDT mechanisms tot he level where they have been empirically demonstrated -- microevolution, so we are not dealing with critiques of "evolution" as such. Further to this Behe and I believe Dr Dembski too [?], accept common descent of life on earth and the usual projected timeline, but reject the notion that RM + NS predominantly shaped it, given the evidence of design in the process as they trace it. 4] In your citations, you have summarised only one side of a contentious issue among the Guild. Therefore your lit survey has, rhetorically speaking [though probably inadvertently], improperly appealed to authority and has thereby stacked the deck. . . .kairosfocus
July 31, 2007
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Kairosfocus, I don't see any real arguments against my main points among your 12 comments. Nevertheless, let me address them. 1. My article does not deal with irreducible complexity; I only wanted to mention it very briefly. Yes, it is simplified but as I don't argue against it, that seems to be a very moot point and hardly worthy of your "strawman" label. 2. Whereas a traditional creationist may argue that Darwinian evolution contradits the bible, ID arguments are based on improbability. If you don't agree, I think he burden of proof is on you. What features of Darwinian evolution are likely, yet contradicted by ID theorists? 3. True, but a bit nitpicky in this context, don't you think? 4. Complete misunderstanding on your part. In scholarly contexts, it is customary to refer to earlier work on the same subject. I don't build upon these references and do not "appeal to authority." My sole point is that others have criticized the filter but I have a different point of view. Whether I agree with their criticism or not is a different topic. 5. I am merely describing Sober's criticism so if you have objections, you have to bring it up with him. Considering that Bayesian statistics predates hypothesis testing, I doubt that you can argue it is dependent upon the latter but that's another discussion. 6. After necessity and chance are ruled out by the filter, design is inferred without further specifying what it means. I have no particular problem with this from a logical point of view. 7. This is no dismissal; it is what he claims. I don't have his books here so I can't give you precise references but I will look it up later. 8. Another complete misunderstanding. I am only describing how statistical hypothesis testing works and use the Caputo example as illustration. What on earth do you mean by "strawman" and that I should "try my argument"? I'm not even making one! 9. Sorry, I don't understand what you are arguing for or against here. 10. Well, I can't argue against that! 11. Again I am just trying to explain something, this time how words like "chance" and "random" have different meanings in daily language and in probability theory. 12. There is no "name-calling." Dembski compares the composition of the flagellum to randomly shopping for cake ingredients. If you mean that "creationist" is an insult, I don't think of it as one. It is being liberally used on creationism.org. Besides, I didn't say that Dembski is one; he obviously isn't. In conclusion, you have not addressed any of my main points. Rather, you have selected a few pretty irrelevant passages and criticized them and completely misunderstood others. Based on this, it is hard to see how you can honestly claim that I engage in "obfuscation and dismissal rhetoric." Best, POolofsson
July 30, 2007
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"If you prefer, we can debate via email instead. You’ll find me at peterolofsson.com." Since this is such an interesting topic I would hope kairofocus and you could hash it out here. Thanks Vividvividblue
July 30, 2007
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Hi kairosfocus, Thanks for your comments! I have not yet had the time to read them through carefully, but I think you have missed some of my points. I will get back shortly so we can sort it out. I don't think it is fair to blame me of obfuscation and dismissal rhetoric though; I certainly did not intend any of these. If you re-read my piece, you can see that I am far more benevolent to the filter than most other critics and that my criticism comes from the point of view of statistical hypothesis testing which is Bill's (yes, we have dropped the titles!) main source of inspiration. If you prefer, we can debate via email instead. You'll find me at peterolofsson.com. Best, POolofsson
July 30, 2007
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Cont'd: 7] Neither is it proper to dismiss that Dembski simply claims that any biological system that has a recognizable function must be specified, and also adds that no biologist he knows would question this conclusion . . . --> Bio-function is in fact tightly restricted based on the DNA-ribosome-enzyme system and the requisites of life in general, and such functionality is known to be relatively isolated in the configuration space of DNA strings of biological length, i.e 500 k to 4 bn base pairs. [cf what mutations at random often do, and look at the config space implied by 4^500,000 to 4 bnth powers] 8] The Caputo case: here we see a strawman being set up, i.e by manufacturing a very loose specification, the real issue is subverted, by getting to a case where any one of the above could happen has probability 38%. [The case was in fact a real world one, and a it hinged on the fact that there was 1 of 40 cases where R led the ballot in which context there was good reason to infer that this was not just by happenstance. This is defeatable but beyond reasonable doubt, the standard of "proof" in a real world case. Try your argument on a real world judge on a discrimination case sometime – other than |with “ACLU copycat” John E Jones III.] 9] A similar pattern extends to the case of E coli. For, it is probable that far less than 10^500 life forms have ever existed in the known universe -- given that 10^150 exhausts the number of quantum states that can exist across the same gamut across its estimated lifespan. 4^500,000 vastly swamps the range, and that is the lower end of the complexity of the DNA in life – that is, the odds of getting to the islands of bio-functionality from an arbitrary initial configuration are vanishingly small; and, it is reasonable to see that to move from one major body plan to another is likewise vastly improbable. There are commonly available estimates on the metabolism first route that look at ~ 200 enzymes and the probability of getting to the working molecules for life. 1 in 10^ 40,000 is the well-known estimate that results, and led Crick to Panspermia in his despair. 11] Similarly, the proper comparison to grammatically correct English words and phrases in a prebiotic concept -- given the point that there is no reason to suppose that DNA code etc are written into the fundamental laws of the universe -- is the Laplacian equiprobability of configurations assumption. Trying to make the outcome less improbable by saying one can pick a different distribution, e.g English letters or words in the typical patterns of English already smuggles in all sorts of syntax and semantics. (Cf my micro-jets in a vat example in the App 1 to the always linked.] 12] Dismissing this by adverting to “Creationists” -- namecalling, in an academic context -- and dismissing microscopic tornadoes in junkyards [BTW, have you studied statistical thermodynamics as it relates to this issue, the relevant science on this one?] of course simply ducks the point that there is in the OOL field no robust model of abiogenesis. That after decades of trying hard and hyping minuscule “encouraging” results like the now notorious spark in a beaker-type experiments. [Cf my always linked, on abiogenesis.] We could go on and on, but by now the pattern is sadly obvious: obfuscation and dismissal rhetoric. GEM of TKIkairosfocus
July 30, 2007
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Hi Prof Olofsson: Took a look -- seems to be your own paper. On selective points on a quick run through: 1] Overly simplifies Irreducible Complexity, to the point of a strawman fallacy. Behe's actual claim is that there is a core in some systems, that is so constituted, that 'An irreducibly complex system cannot be produced directly... by slight, successive modifications of a precursor system, because any precursor to an irreducibly complex system that is missing a part is by definition non-functional.’ So, ‘although irreducible complexity does rule out direct routes, it does not automatically rule out indirect ones.’ Howbeit, as complexity of such a biosystem rises, ‘the more unlikely the indirect routes become.’ [DBB, 10th aniv. edn.] 2] The same happens with the claim: the key concept for evolution critics is improbability. Nope, we ID thinkers -- ever since Plato in his The Laws Bk 10, 2400 years ago, look at a three-way split on causation, and infer from a pattern that is COMMONLY and reliably used in statistics, courtrooms, management and in common sense life, that CSI is a reliable indicator of design not chance and/or natural regularity only. [BTW, how often do practical investigators compose “all” alternative hyps and compute conditional probabilities relative to them then deduce the most/least improbable, before drawing conclusions? Or is it that most often Fisher's approach is used of finding a rejection region that meets specification and improbability then rejecting the null . . .?] 3] Also, there is a world of difference between critiquing NDT and its wider context of evolutionary materialist models and critiquing "evolution." 4] Citing a string of critics on one side of a debate among research level scientists as though they have the last word is obviously an improper appeal to authority. 5] Sober's critique is about Bayesian vs Fisherian inference testing: sound scientific practice require that conclusions are based on comparative reasoning. Perhaps a chance hypothesis confers a small probability on the evidence, but how do we know that a design hypothesis does not confer an even smaller probability? --> H'mm first a comparison of chance and/or necessity vs design relative to what we directly observe and know about CSI systems we see being made is a simple elimination based on mere improbability? --> Next, in fact Fisherian type reasoning is more used in practical stats and science than is Bayesian, and the latter is in part at least dependent on the first. [This Dembski discusses in details on his site. I see nowhere any sign of interaction with Dembski on this, who is knowledgeable in the Math and Stats and associated probability.] 6] It is by no means clear -- given the known pattern of agent causation of CSI systems, and the longstanding recognition that chance, necessity and/or agency are known (and the only known) major causal forces - that the concept "design" is simply taken to mean neither regularity, nor chance." That is the concept of design by an agent who leaves empirically detectable traces of his work is not at all vacuous or mysterious – unless you have begged the metaphysical question and reject the possibility of such an agent before looking at the facts. . . .kairosfocus
July 30, 2007
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I agree that many of the critics step far away from their areas of expertise (not sure how wildlife and fisheries give you expertise in complexity theory...). Here is a piece that criticizes the filter from the point of view of mathematical statistics, written by somebody who seems to know what he is talking about: www.math.tulane.edu/~polofsson/IDandMathStat.pdfolofsson
July 25, 2007
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NB: Minor arithmetic correction: at 31.6*10^6 s/year [86,400 s/day * 365.25 d/yr], we have 316*10^12 s/10Myr. That moves the calculation of The UPB-Cambrian to 1 in 9*10^110. Missed a factor of 10 . . . no material effect.kairosfocus
July 23, 2007
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Arnold Horseshack. Mr. Kaaahta, Mr. Kaaahta, my paper's not ready because I'm wating for the words to evoooolve.tribune7
July 22, 2007
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Kevin Padian: The Archie Bunker Professor of Paleobiology at Cal Berkeley
Oh my goodness, I didn't realize an endowned chair was created in honor of Archie Bunker.scordova
July 22, 2007
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PPS: I think Mr O'Leary's take here will also be helpful. Padian's review looks worse and worse all the time, and with it so do Nature -- let's not forget, the leading general purpose Science Journal -- and the vaunted peer review process. (Aquiesce pardon my misreading of your handle . . . a right brain long story issue.)kairosfocus
July 22, 2007
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PS: To clarify a point. Tyler (in the article Prof Dembski links) notes that The president of the NCSE is none other than the reviewer, Kevin Padian. kairosfocus
July 22, 2007
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H'mm: 1] Let's go back, for a moment, to the core fallacy in Mr Padian's claim as cited in the original post:
Here is Padian’s take on my work: “His [Dembski’s] notion of ’specified complexity’, a probabilistic filter that allegedly allows one to tell whether an event is so impossible that it requires supernatural explanation, has never demonstrably received peer review, although its description in his popular books (such as No Free Lunch, Rowman & Littlefield, 2001) has come in for withering criticism from actual mathematicians.”
--> WHOA! Since when -- apart from in evolutionary materialists'strawman attacks -- has the design inference been inherently an inference to the SUPERNATURAL; as opposed to an inference that, the null hyp of chance and/or necessity having on good though revisable reason failed, AGENCY is then the most reasonable alternative explanation? --> Worse yet, this claim has consistently explicitly rejected by Design thinkers and theorists in the Dover trial and elsewhere, including in the book that the ACLU and their tame judge tried to make this a trial about without giving the publishers a chance to speak for themselves, Pandas and People. [So, if there is ignorance there, it is willfully negligent ignorance; but, given Mr Padian's links to the NCSE, I doubt that "ignorance" is the correct explanation. This alone is sufficient to discredit him and his associates in my mind, as on the evidence openly dishonest and exploitive of the trust that others have unwisely put in them.] --> Similarly, did the vaunted peer reviewers and editors of Nature bother to do a basic fact check? [What does that tell us about the practical import of such peer reviews in a climate where the likes of a Gonzalez can be shabbily trwated as he was?] --> Also, so far as I can tell, as discussed in Crandaddy's July 6 "Events, Causes . . ." thread, this pattern of differential causal inference across chance, necessity and/or agency [though now developed in statistical inferential form] traces back to say, Plato in his The Laws, Book X:
. . . we have . . . lighted on a strange doctrine . . . . The wisest of all doctrines, in the opinion of many . . . . The doctrine that all things do become, have become, and will become, some by nature, some by art, and some by chance . . .
--> Thus the quest to differentiate the three possible causes of events by looking for credible empirical traces of the one or the other at work, is plainly legitimate, useful and indeed it is commonly resorted to in Science. [BTW, 1 in 10^150 is a lot tighter than the usual 1 in 20 or 100 in most Fisher-style statistical inference testing . . .] --> Prof Dembski has more than adequately addressed the allegation that the UPB has not been peer reviewed, for whatever that is now worth given what we just saw. (And of course Nature failed to check with the leading Scientific publisher before comitting to print . . .) 2] Now, back to the attempted distractor, on the validity of the UPB. [Observe, too, how Aquiescence fails to reckon with the implications of his resort and the issues it opens up, as per issues in no 8 above. No prizes for guessing why.]
[WD] You’re right, the size of the known universe is known, but beyond it could lie considerably more elementry particles meaning the size of your UPB would need to be revised.
--> Of course, first, since when was this need to be open to revision a novelty on any empirically anchored scientific inference, up to and including not only observations but also the laws and theories of Science in general? Thus also, is there empirical evidence that currently credibly warrants such a revision, on any material scale? --> As A has plainly conceded, there is no current data to warrant the revision he hopes for. As I pointed out, the hoped for quasi-infinite scale is inherently unobservable, as the finite cannot observe the infinite, though we may infer to it. --> Let us imagine for a moment the universe is ten times the present scope, as A raises in no 4: 10^81 particles. That shifts the number of possible quantum states across the known scope of the universe across its lifetime to: 10^81 particles * 10^25 seconds * 10^45 quantum states/second = 10^151. --> Similarly a scope of 100 times would raise the number of particles to 10^82, leading to the UPB going to 10^152 etc. (This is why Prof Dembski more or less made a simple footnote on the issue of scope of the observed universe affecting the UPB, a scope that has been more or less moving only a few orders of magnitude for decades. TO affect his main point a DRAMATIC expansion in the scope would be required . . .] --> E.g., with the known fact that once knockouts on small micro-organisms go below about 360k base pairs, life function disintegrates, we can easily enough see that the configuration space in question encompasses 4^360k ~ 3.95*10^216,741 possible states. --> This is so many orders of magnitude beyond ~ 10^150 that it is not at all reasonable that any random walk-based search [even with various augmentations/adjustments, as WD has long since seriously addressed] in even a far larger cosmos than the one we observe, would get to the first functional life form based on DNA by necessity and chance alone. Thus, the inference to agency is well warranted relative to what we know -- as opposed to what some may wish to speculate over. (And, if there lurks a natural law that cuts down that scope dramatically,that simply tightens the cosmic fine-tuning argument . . .) --> It gets worse. A modern arthropod (a fruit fly) has about 180 mn base prs. Let us cut that down for argument to 60 mn, and compare the Cambrian explosion window, of say 10 mn yrs [~ 31.6*10^12 s] on an earth of mass 6*10^24 kg [ ~ 3*10^50 C atoms at 12 AMU/atom, reasonable as we here look at the surface as the biosphere]. The UPB-Cambrian now falls to 1 in 9*10^109, while the config space to get the dozens of new body plans, on a per plan basis is ~ 3*10^36,123,599. Config space explodes, UPB collapses, underscoring the relevance of agency tot he origin of body plan level biodiversity -- as Meyer pointed out in that now famous peer-reviewed paper. 3] Of course, my math can be checked and is subject to correction in details, but the underlying message in the main is plain: ever since Plato, the inference to design on materially important cases is a credible one, and the current situation owes more to the politics of worldview agendas in the institutions of science, than to the balance of the case on the merits. GEM of TKIkairosfocus
July 22, 2007
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Dembski [5] The size of the known physical universe is — at the risk of sounding tautological — well known. What’s beyond it is a matter of speculation.
It’s the point beyond it – the matter of speculation – that my point was regarding, not the size of the known universe. You’re right, the size of the known universe is known, but beyond it could lie considerably more elementry particles meaning the size of your UPB would need to be revised. Although to be fair, you do make this clear in The Design Inference p.217
”In making this admission, however, let’s be clear what it would mean to underestimate the probabilistic resources in our universe… (1) the number of elementry particles in the universe…[UPB] varies inversely with these numbers [number of elementary particles, age of the universe, events per second], so that as they increase, [UPB] decreases. Hence if these numbers are off, then so is [UPB]”
Acquiesce
July 21, 2007
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To retain my sanity, I try to remain cognisant of the wider setting--in this case I'll call it: fallen NATURE.DG
July 21, 2007
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[...] Recent Comments gpuccio: Bob: "Firstly, and this might surprise you, Behe’s work... kairosfocus: Aquiescence: I see Prof Dembski has immediately pointed o... j: [Just for laughs:] Robert Pennock in Discover (Februa... Freelurker: ... in other words, the systems must be designed... johnnyb: Why I love Kevin Padian -- When he is talking outside his... tribune7: So, in the same way that Christians don’t hate Allah, s... tribune7: Archie Bunker? That's Arnold Horseshack. Mr. Kaaahta, Mr... Jehu: Am I missing something? Why is TalkOrigins bothe... Patrick: Would you be so kind as to point out which of th... jerry: Salvador, The old expression "Follow the money" drives th... feed » [...]Big science mags as mouthpieces for the materialist lobby | Uncommon Descent
July 21, 2007
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Aquiescence: I see Prof Dembski has immediately pointed out the obvious flaw in your:
the upper probability bound of 10^150 rests on pure speculation. Who can really say, with any empirical basis, there are only 10^80 elementary particles in the universe? For all we know the universe could be twice this size, or ten times or even infinite in size.
He aptly observed: The size of the known physical universe is — at the risk of sounding tautological — well known. What’s beyond it is a matter of speculation. I add, that it is not just "speculation," but specifically METAPHYSICAL -- i.e. philosophical, not scientific -- speculation. And that brings in all the apparatus of serious comparative difficulties analysis across the live metaphysical options, e.g. including Theism as well as evolutionary materialism and Pantheism. You have therefore stepped beyond the reasonable bounds of science, in order to facilitate a dismissal argument. On the wider field of comparative difficulties, I am not at all so sure that Evolutionary Materialism, often simply but inaccurately called "Science," is the best present explamation, relative to: 1] factual adequacy [note how you have had to speculate counter to the observations we have in hand, and that a quasi-infinite cosmos as a whole is inherently unobservable . . . noting meanwhile that the specified complexity in view in many cases is many orders of magnitude beyond the 500 bit limit, e.g. DNA 500k - 3 bn or so base pairs, each being 2 bits.] 2] coherence [not least as Ms O'Leary often points out, there are major difficulties accounting for a credible mind, not to mention morals] 3] Explanatory elegance vs either ad hocness or being simplistic. So, do you really want to go down that speculative road? [And, what does the resort to such speculation tell us about the problems with the attempted case against the design filter.] GEM of TKIkairosfocus
July 21, 2007
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Why I love Kevin Padian -- When he is talking outside his expertise (i.e. about ID), he is actually helpful, as the only thing that shows through is his anger. On the other hand, when he is talking within his expertise, he gives powerful evidence of Biblical Creationism.johnnyb
July 20, 2007
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Archie Bunker? That's Arnold Horseshack. Mr. Kaaahta, Mr. Kaaahta, if I design somethin does that make me intelligent?tribune7
July 20, 2007
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Acquiesce: The size of the known physical universe is -- at the risk of sounding tautological -- well known. What's beyond it is a matter of speculation.William Dembski
July 20, 2007
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Whilst I believe chance to be an inadequate explanation for life, I feel the upper probability bound of 10^150 rests on pure speculation. Who can really say, with any empirical basis, there are only 10^80 elementary particles in the universe? For all we know the universe could be twice this size, or ten times or even infinite in size.Acquiesce
July 20, 2007
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Does he mean David Wolpert, a co-discoverer of the NFL theorems? Wolpert had some nasty things to say about my book NO FREE LUNCH, but the upshot was that my ideas there were not sufficiently developed mathematically for him to critique them.
Bill, you forgot to mention that David Wolpert is going to become one of the best supporters of your theses, although (and this will be even more significant) probably he will never state so. After having stated what follows in his paper on IEEE Trans. in December 2005, D. Wolpert states the same concept in many speeches. For example: http://www.mis.mpg.de/talks/abstracts/4444.html Special Seminar David Wolpert (NASA Ames Research Center, USA, + MPI MIS, Leipzig) No Free Lunch Theorem Abstract - "At least since Hume, people have wondered whether there are first principles limitations on what humans can deduce / infer about reality. ... In contrast to the traditional optimization case where the NFL results hold, in self-play there are free lunches: in coevolution some algorithms produce better champions than other algorithms, averaged across all possible problems. However in the typical coevolutionary scenarios encountered in biology, there is no champion. There the NFL theorems still hold." It is also quite interesting to see the comment by a well know PT guy (M. Perach): http://www.pandasthumb.org/archives/2006/07/there_is_a_free.html After somenone had given him the reference to Wolpert's paper on IEEE Trans., he wrote: "Yes, Bob, this is the paper I meant. Thanks for pointing to it. Whether or not the NFL theorems are valid for biological evolution (they are), including co-evolution (where they may be invalid in certain situations - see the referenced Wolpert/Macready’s paper) is irrelevant because the uniform average does not tell anything about the actual performance of search algorithms, as only the performance on a specific landscape is what counts, and there always are algorithms that outperform blind search on given specific landscapes, and this is true regardless of whether the landscape is co-evolving or not. Moreover, evolution is not a search for a target (contrary to what Dembski asserts), therefore his calculations of probabilities of finding a “target” are likewise irrelevant. Maybe I’ll write one more brief essay about it and post it here." It seems that the defense line has been moved back. As now (after Wolpert's work) the reference of NFL theorems in biology cannot be anymore labelled as non sense, the new position is to claim that in evolution the landscapes are specific and favourable for search. But this is pretty wishful speculations! Bill, I think that your work will be more and more vindicated.kairos
July 20, 2007
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Way the go! The general public--and that includes the media and academics and leaders and just about everybody outside the mathematical community--isn't going to follow the mathematics of ID nor appreciate it that much. But all should be glad it's there! It's a front line component in the struggle and I think it's in the hands of a strong and competent individual. And if it wasn't a fight--if there were no struggle against malignant forces--there would be no heroes. Just intelligence. And maybe not even that, for is real intelligence ever awakened apart from passion? And what inspires more than to face down the enemies of reason and endure a little persecution for the cause?Rude
July 20, 2007
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You tell them, Dr. Dembski. Why anyone would listen to a bunch of guys critiquing groundbreaking work outside their area of expertise is beyond comprehension. But, there you have it. Credulity is a powerful tool when you have an axe to grind.rrf
July 20, 2007
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It is beyond my ability to see why "supposedly reasonable scientists" will go to such extraordinary length to deny the truth of the apparent design found in nature. Especially when it is backed up with such solid work as yours Dr. Dembski. Is the concept of a designer that scary for them? What are they so scared of?bornagain77
July 20, 2007
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