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Mark Frank poses an interesting thought experiment on free will

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In a comment on kairosfocus’ latest excellent post, Does ID ASSUME “contra-causal free will” and “intelligence” (and so injects questionable “assumptions”)?, Mark Frank proposes a thought experiment in support of his view that determinism is fully compatible with free will. It goes as follows:

Start with a dog. Dogs make choices in the sense that they may accept or reject a treat, may obey or disobey an order, may chase a rabbit or not. Suppose we advance our understanding of dogs’ brains and thought processes so that a genius vet can predict with 100% accuracy how a dog will choose in any given situation given its past history and current circumstances. Surely this is conceivable? If we manage this do we now say that dogs are making real choices? If it they are real choices then this is compatibilism in action. So I guess, in these circumstances, you would say that we have shown they do not really have free will.

Now extend it to infants – say two year olds. They make choices – eat or don’t eat, cry or don’t cry, hug or don’t hug. So let’s imagine we repeat the process with them. A genius paediatrician in this case (maybe you one day!). Are the infants also lacking free will? Either compatabilism is true or they haven’t got free will.

OK. Now apply it to an adult human. If it is conceivable for a dog and an infant then surely it is conceivable for an adult. A genius psychologist observes an adult and is able to predict all their decisions and explain why – exactly how each decision is determined by their genetics, personal history and current environment (it doesn’t have to be a materialist explanation). Has that adult got free will? Either compatabilism is true or they haven’t got free will.

And finally apply to yourself. Suppose it turns out a genius psychologist has been monitoring you all your life and has been able to correctly predict all your decisions and also how the decision making process worked in detail – how your different motivations were balanced and interacted with your perceptions and memories resulting in each decision (including any dithering and worrying about whether you got it right). Would that mean you thought you had free will but actually didn’t? Either compatabilism is true or you haven’t got free will.

As my computer is currently kaput, this will be a very short post. I’d like to suggest that what Mark Frank has left out of the equation is language, the capacity for which is what differentiates us from other animals. (Human infants possess this capacity but do not yet exercise it, partly because their brains, when they are newborn, are still too immature for language production, and also because they have yet to build up a linguistic databank that would enable them to express what they want to get across.)

Language is central to human rationality because rationality is not just a matter of selecting the appropriate means to realize a desired end: it is also a critical activity, in which agents are expected to be able to justify their choices and respond to questions like “Why did you do that?” People don’t just act rationally; they give reasons for their actions. In order to do that, you need a language in which you can generate an indefinitely large number of sentences, as the range of possible situations in which you might find yourself is potentially infinite – particularly when we factor in the little complicating circumstances that may arise.

What is distinctive about human language, as opposed to animal “language,” is precisely this ability to generate an infinite number of sentences. This uniquely human ability was the subject of a recent article in the Washington Post titled, Chirps, whistles, clicks: Do any animals have a true ‘language’?, which was discussed in a recent post by News (emphases are mine – VJT):

A new study on animal calls has found that the patterns of barks, whistles, and clicks from seven different species appear to be more complex than previously thought. The researchers used mathematical tests to see how well the sequences of sounds fit to models ranging in complexity…

“We’re still a very, very long way from understanding this transition from animal communication to human language, and it’s a huge mystery at the moment,” said study author and zoologist Arik Kershenbaum, who did the work at the National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis…

“What makes human language special is that there’s no finite limit as to what comes next,” he said….

But what separates language from communication? Why can’t we assume that whales, with their elaborate songs, are simply speaking “whale-ese”?

To be considered a true language, there are a few elements that are usually considered to be essential, says Kershenbaum. For one, it must be learned rather than instinctive — both whales and birds have this piece covered. For instance, killer whale calves learn a repertoire of calls from their mothers, and the sounds gradually evolve from erratic screams to adult-like pulsed calls and whistles.

What holds whales and other animals back from language is that there is a limit to what they can express. There are only so many calls that each may convey different emotions, but only we have an unlimited ability to express abstract ideas.

The problem for scientists is that no one knows how language evolved. Oddly enough, there don’t seem to be any transitional proto-languages between whale and bird songs — said to be the most sophisticated animal calls — and our own speech.

There are two conflicting theories of how language evolved in humans. The first is that human language evolved slowly and gradually, just as most traits evolved in the animal world. So perhaps it started with gestures, and then words and sentences. Or language may have started out more like bird song — with complex but meaningless sounds — and the last stage was attaching meaning to these sounds.

Reading the last paragraph in the passage quoted above brings to mind Nobel Laureate John Eccles’ derisive remarks about “promissory materialism.” The fact is that scientists haven’t got a clue how language evolved – and for a very good reason. The gap between the law-governed deterministic processes we observe in Nature and the infinite flexibility of human language is an unbridgeable one.

That is why no psychologist could ever, even in principle, predict everything that a rational adult human being will think, say and do. Language, which is fundamentally unpredictable, is part of the warp-and-woof of human life. Hence the antecedent in Mark Frank’s thought experiment – “What if a psychologist could predict every decision that you make?” – is impossible, by definition.

Back in 1957, behaviorist B. F. Skinner wrote a best-selling book with the amusing title, Verbal Behavior. I hope readers can see now why language is much more than mere behavior.

Thoughts?

Comments
Box, Feedback is a common aspect of system behaviour, where final outputs or intermediate stages come back to influence inputs. It gives rise to all sorts of interesting effects, where a past and/or present state affects the way the system acts onwards. That is the system acts on itself. And when memory and things dependent on memory are material aspects, that further amplifies the past affects the future effect. These are both highly relevant to human behaviour. (If you have ever tried to walk with a bucket full of water held in a hand, you may know some of the implications of feedback, as the lags in the loop are often just enough for attempts to stabilise further destabilising, and so water gets sloshed out.) Likewise we have a meta reflective capacity to reflect on our inner state and thoughts etc, we are self-aware. In that self awareness, we are both observed and observer. But, that is not at all the same as saying that we initiate our beings or mindedness from nothing. When "I" the transcendent, the soul, make a decision, I may have external influences and internal ones, but it is I who move. I am not a determined dynamic system that follows a necessary path. And, if the determinism were so, I could not be a reasonable, warranting, knowing being. I could not make responsible choices. And no, there is no contradiction involved. I am influenced from within and from without, but that is not the same as I am blindly programmed and controlled. I choose, often in the teeth of my inclinations, because I determine that I shall do the right not the impulsive or the easy. We all face that choice: will we be ruled by our impulses and passions or by our determination to know and do the right, the reasonable and the true? Down that road of blind control lies the grand delusion fallacy that ends in self referential incoherence. KFkairosfocus
September 3, 2014
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Dionisio #152 #147, I was trying to clarify the term self-causation. I don't want to argue with you if self-organization is a genuine principle or not in organisms.Box
September 3, 2014
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KF #150, I don't understand your comment. Let me rephrase my question. When "I" make a free decision, self-moved (without external determination), does self-moved imply that "I" is simultaneously cause and effect? In the sense that there is a cause "I" that causes itself (by making a decision) to be an effect "decisive I”. Similarly, during self-perception, am I simultaneously observer and object? And my question is: if so, is there a problem with the law of non-contradiction?Box
September 3, 2014
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#152 follow-up don't we want to know what causes the component elements to be in those relative positions? In the case of the proteins, don't they result from an elaborate process that combines transcription, translation, splicing, folding, etc. What determines when those processes occur? how long, how many times, where? many factors involved. Up- and down-regulation, signaling pathways, the whole nine yard.Dionisio
September 3, 2014
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Mung: He says that any event must be either the result of a process (a necessity algorithm) or of random systems. And that he does not know any other alternative. So, he is eliminating "ab initio" the possibility that free choices exist, because by definition a free choice is neither the result of necessity nor a random event. So, he is not debating free will. He is just stating that it does not exist. I am perfectly fine with that choice, he is a free individual and he has to make his cognitive choices. But again, that is not an argument.gpuccio
September 3, 2014
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Mark Frank:
And if they are not caused, then they just happen. It seems like theists (and some others) evade this by invoking some kind of mystical mumbo jumbo. So in the case of the first cause – it doesn’t need to be caused because it is a “necessary being” whatever that is – rather than just accepting it just happened.
Thanks for the laughs Mark.Mung
September 3, 2014
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Mark Frank, Help me out please. I cannot possibly see why this is so hard for you. I admit the problem may be my confirmation bias, or me being blind to obvious holes in the arguments. My question is: Why do you continue to assume materialism, compatibilism, and other metaphysical notions which DO NOT fit the empirical observations that you yourself make. For example you assume materialism and as an antecedent assume... 1. ) every human thought has a material cause. You end up either having to say there are a) no intentional choices or b) an infinite regress of intentional choices. conclusion 'a' makes no sense from a probabilistic analysis of many observations of choices made and, as VJT points out, the fact that they can be the result of ideas expressed only in language or other abstract symbols INDEPENDENT of the media of expression. conclusion 'b' is not logically possible. Why oh why can't you come to the only logical conclusion that premise 1 is false. I don't mean to ask that question flippantly or in an abusive manner. I am just really perplexed why in the age of quantum mechanics, modern biology, and advanced signal processing anyone still clings to the idea of a materialistic universe. Please help me to see that this holding on to materialism is not just an extreme exercise in foolishness. To my shame, I really can not comprehend any other possibility.JDH
September 3, 2014
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Box,
Self-organization (as we see in organisms),
isn't that the result of the physical properties of the molecular components and their relative positions within the molecules?Dionisio
September 3, 2014
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gpuccio:
Graham2: The “third way” is exactly free choice. Can you deny that you are eliminating it from your map of reality “ab initio”? Therefore, you are begging the question. It is not an argument, just a choice.
I don't think he rejects it "ab initio." I think he just doesn't know where to place the decision-making, whether in the brain, the soul, the liver, or somewhere else. And of course we agree. There is no physical location of the immaterial. We're not puzzled by this, he is.Mung
September 3, 2014
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Box, nope, this is describing a reflexive, feedback process. Something that happens every time we make a decision. Gkairosfocus
September 3, 2014
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Dionisio, Self-organization (as we see in organisms), self-perception, self-reflection, self-esteem and so on are arguably all examples of self-causation.Box
September 3, 2014
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Graham2:
However, when they quite honestly admit all their decisions are made in the soul, I just get the awful sinking feeling that we are not in the same universe.
LoL! You get that 'awful sinking feeling' in your brain, your soul, your liver or someplace else likewise not important.Mung
September 3, 2014
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Box Just to make it a little easier for me to understand the term, can you provide an example of self-causation? Thank you.Dionisio
September 3, 2014
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KF, does 'self-moved' imply that a thing is simultaneous cause and effect? If so, is there a problem with the law of non-contradiction?Box
September 3, 2014
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Box, the self-moved, acting as a going concern along a cumulative spiral path of action driven by decisions is not self-referentially incoherent. We are like that. That is not the same as self-initiating in the sense of calling or causing oneself to come into existence. KFkairosfocus
September 3, 2014
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Vjtorley, do you hold self-causation (causa sui), to be logically possible?Box
September 3, 2014
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#136 gpuccio
The “third way” is exactly free choice.
Though unrelated, the case of "The Third Way" to evolution, it's also another example of free choice. Those respected scientists admitted the inadequacies and deficiencies of "the second way" (i.e. 'n-D e'), but definitely don't want to accept the possibility of "The First Way" which is "The Only Way" that was called "The Way" in the first century of this age. :)Dionisio
September 3, 2014
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VJ  #137
In other words, there doesn’t need to be a “how” a decision is made – any more than there needs to be a “how” an excited electron radiates a photon. That does not mean that a decision “just happens” – that’s another popular non sequitur frequently invoked by people who are skeptical of free will.
This is key not only to the question of free will also the general issue of causality.  My position is that things are either caused or they are not. (To be more precise events have multiple causes which limit them to some extent but may not completely determine them – so it may be that some aspects of the event are uncaused e.g. the emission of alpha particles may be caused by an atom of uranium but the exact timing is not caused).  And if they are not caused, then they just happen. It seems like theists (and some others) evade this by invoking some kind of mystical mumbo jumbo. So in the case of the first cause – it doesn’t need to be caused because it is a “necessary being” whatever that is – rather than just accepting it just happened. And in the case of personal decisions you ascribe a characteristic “free will”  instead of accepting the usual sense of “free” to mean “not constrained”. To put it another way – a person’s decisions are preceded by conditions and events which to some extent constrain or influence those decisions – I guess we agree on that even if you think that some of those conditions are immaterial. The condition includes that person’s wishes and moral vision, what they are consciously aware of, and doubtless many other factors.  A decision then happens under those influences but not necessarily completely determined by them. I think we can all agree to that. The difference between us is that I stop there. For me that is an account of decision making at very high level. I don’t understand what you add by saying – and the decision had the attribute of free will.Mark Frank
September 3, 2014
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Graham2
It may ‘react’ to something else, but in the end this reaction is a process that is describable. It must be either an algorithm, or random. I don’t know of any 3rd way.
I think the fact that neither random nor algorithm explain what is happening is evidence that there is, necessarily, a third way that we consider free will. An algorithm is written before the event to produce various outcomes. So, where did the algorithm come from? The algorithm cannot write itself or evaluate itself. There's an entity (self, soul) that observes the content and quality of the algorithms used in the decision - and to choose or reject certain reasoning paths.Silver Asiatic
September 3, 2014
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MF #113
I think it is easy to get muddled about when you make the decision. Suppose you announce to the world “in 10 minutes I will choose to eat a bar of chocolate” and then 10 minutes later you do. Actually you chose to eat the bar of chocolate when you made the announcement and I am not at all sure you would predict you were going to make the announcement the day before whereas someone who was rather clever and knew you well might well have predicted it better.
It's interesting - there are a few things going on. First, you set 10 minutes as a time frame. If you set 1 second, you'd have an even higher probability of predicting. Keep in mind, your thought experiment offered 100% accuracy on decisions - that will include precisely when someone will decide each thing. Could a person predict exactly when, a year from now, you'll eat a bar of chocolate? True, you might not predict it either, but the same person will not know, even 10 minutes before you choose chocolate, when you will make that decision. You said also: "Actually you chose to eat the bar of chocolate when you made the announcement ..." and that's true. Or we could say, you chose sometime before the announcement. In any case, the precise moment when you made the decision is known only to you. It's entirely internalized. This makes it much more difficult for someone to predict, with 100% accuracy, all your decisions. Without knowing your internal state, how can it be determined when, precisely, you decided?
To me random entails unpredictable and that doesn’t mean always different from what everyone predicts – it means that if the outcome of X is random then people who predict the outcome of X are wrong a consistent and significant proportion of the time and however much they work at it they will never improve on that. But the big question is: is there some third option other than predictable and random? I can’t see what it is.
Ok, I see my own confusion here. I don't understand what you mean by predictable. Why is something predictable or not? I think you're saying that if it is random it is not predictable. So, if it is not random, it is predictable. But you also offered that random is when people are wrong about the event "a consistent and significant proportion of the time". But we see many cases where it doesn't work like that - especially with human behavior. Election results, the popularity of new products, rating of TV shows -- is it predictable? If not, is it necessarily random? So again, why is something predictable? What is it about the origin of that thing? When you have something that can be predicted with 100% accuracy in every case - what does that say about predictablity vs something that can be predicted 75% of the time? Free choice is a selection of options based on criteria known only to the choosing agent. The criteria that inform the choice are not determined or law-like but come from a variety of sources, ranked by value to the chooser. Emotions, spiritual values, meaning, future benefits or even self-destructive motives can be factors in decisions. But the only person who has access to those criteria is the person making the decision. So, even if it could be predicted some times (as random processes can be predicted sometimes), the predictability is not based on the origin of the decision. It says nothing about why the person made the choice. It's just looking at outcomes. On what basis would a genius be able to predict every decision with 100% accuracy? The only thing I could propose is that the genius discovered the programming that lead to every decision. Predicting without knowing the origin or criteria weighing of the choice is more like statistical guesswork and it could never achieve 100% accuracy. That's a final thought ... no random process can be predicted with 100% accuracy -- and any process that is modified by a random value, is a random process. If a process could be predicted with 100% accuracy it would not be random. There would necessarily be some kind of law-like process or design working behind it. So, in your example with the dog - if the genius discovered how to predict with 100% accuracy every decision of the dog, we would conclude that the dog's behavior was not random. If not random, then what is is?Silver Asiatic
September 3, 2014
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VJT: Ah, I reacted to the act of posting, I see some updates. VISTA? Uh oh . . . why not try XP? And I suggest get a netbook backup, you can get those now for about USD 300 or so, with a 12 inch screen, though 10 inches is good enough for most real work. KFkairosfocus
September 3, 2014
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VJT: back up on your feet PC-wise yet? KFkairosfocus
September 3, 2014
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Hi Graham2, I have to disagree with your claim that if decisions are not random, they must be performed by some underlying process or algorithm. If all actions had to be performed by some underlying process, there would be an infinite regress - and nothing would get done. Some actions must therefore be properly basic. I see no reason why acts of the will could not fall into this category. In other words, there doesn't need to be a "how" a decision is made - any more than there needs to be a "how" an excited electron radiates a photon. That does not mean that a decision "just happens" - that's another popular non sequitur frequently invoked by people who are skeptical of free will. Although I don't think there is a mechanism by which my decisions are made, however, I would be the last to deny that a lot of information processing has to go in on the brain before a decision can be made - in particular, information processing relating to accurately representing the situation that the decision is about. (If this were not so, we could not describe the decision as an informed one.) Hi Mark, With regard to the infinite regress problem: the difficulty is founded on the false assumption that defenders of libertarian free will think every choice has to be chosen in order to be freely performed. On the contrary: every action (i.e. bodily movement) which is freely performed must be the result of a choice. For a choice to be free, however, requires only that it be done for a reason which appeals to the agent, and that nothing determined it. As for one's fundamental vision of life, the universe and everything: there may be quite a bit of weighing up that goes on, but in the end the choice reflects one's own personal answer to the question, "What sort of person do I want to be?" As for why people come up with the answer they do, I can only say: because it (a) makes sense to them and (b) appeals to them. By the way, you'll be happy to know that it looks like the computer won't be fixed for the foreseeable future :) I've re-installed Windows Vista but can't get the computer to even finish Stage 2 of CHKDSK. (I think it's because a recent download of AVG damaged memory irretrievably, but even before that, it was playing up.) The computer is about seven years old, so I'd say it's done for. I may decide to rent from now on. We'll see.vjtorley
September 3, 2014
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Graham2: The "third way" is exactly free choice. Can you deny that you are eliminating it from your map of reality "ab initio"? Therefore, you are begging the question. It is not an argument, just a choice. Your argument was, as I understand it, that in decisions there are many aspects which seem algorithmic or random. Well, I don't deny that. I have tried to show that they exist, and they can exist together with free choice from the transcendental I. This was an answer to your argument. You have answered that simply going back to a statement that only necessary and random events exist, and that you know mo other way. OK, that is not an argument, just a statement of faith.gpuccio
September 3, 2014
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Let's see.kairosfocus
September 3, 2014
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KF Can the interlocutors still explain those 'aptly illustrative' cases? Were they determined by brain control circuitry and signaling that evolved through time? PGMABDionisio
September 3, 2014
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#130 KF Yes. That's it.Dionisio
September 3, 2014
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KF @ 128
Ponder why system development requires so much troubleshooting and debugging.
Good question. Been there, done that. Even when the latest and greatest design methodology has been carefully followed.Dionisio
September 3, 2014
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D: Those cases in point are all aptly illustrative. KFkairosfocus
September 3, 2014
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D: Yes, St Kolbe's self-sacrifice and shepherding of the others put into the starvation room with him is a capital example of responsible freedom in action in the teeth of great evil. And I have a friend who was involved with a very attractive woman, who knew just how to punch his buttons, then there was the afternoon when she worked her magic then said, she "needed" him NOW. But, he had had a crisis of conscience. His reply was, that for the sake of his soul (and hers) he had to say no. Because in the end the still small voice of conscience said it was wrong, regardless of the balance of impulses, relational cues and raging emotions. KFkairosfocus
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