Uncommon Descent Serving The Intelligent Design Community

My Final Post at UD

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Last evening I posted the following, and within a short period of time the Darwinbots descended upon it, challenging my expertise in two highly sophisticated areas of computational science, AI and FEA, fields in which I have the goods to demonstrate that I know what I am talking about. One commenter even asserted that the physics involved in an LS-DYNA simulation cannot be represented with mathematical precision. Yes they can. And it works.

At this point I decided that I have nothing further to offer. If some people cannot recognize that the information-processing systems encoded in biological systems defy naturalistic explanation and suggest a design inference, I cannot help them, and they are free to continue to pursue a phantom.

Farewell, and best wishes to all.

Gil

A number of years ago I developed an interest in AI (artificial intelligence) games-playing programming, and pursued a research project in that arena with so much success that I eventually lost interest, because there were no remaining human opponents to challenge. You can read about the project at my website. Real-world experience demonstrated the success of the project.

I now earn my living as a software engineer in aerospace R&D with a specialty in computer simulations, and as a result have pursued another interest: transient, dynamic, nonlinear, finite-element analysis (FEA) using a simulation program called LS-DYNA, originally developed in the 1970s at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to simulate underground nuclear tests.

My company sent me away to LS-DYNA school after I volunteered, but I was warned that it would be really, really difficult, and that I had better bone up on the relevant math and engineering concepts. I took this advice to heart, and spent at least 200 hours preparing for the five-day course. Even with vast experience in software engineering and this preparation, it took everything I had to keep up with the instruction. The LS-DYNA course was a huge eye-opener concerning computer simulations and reality.

On the first day of the course our instructor, Dr. John D. Reid, who was absolutely fantastic, commented that it is really easy to make “cartoons” with LS-DYNA. (Dyna not only produces vast quantities of data, but generates AVI animations of the simulation.) By that he meant that without a thorough understanding, it is easy to make a Dyna simulation produce whatever results you like, that might look cool, but have no correlation with reality.

LS-DYNA has been under development for more than 30 years by the most brilliant scientists in the field, and its simulations have been compared repeatedly against real-world results. Material physical properties are well known, tested, and quantified (Young’s modulus, Poisson’s ratio, mass density, area moment of inertia, etc.), and the physics involved can be simulated and represented with absolute mathematical precision.

Yet with all of this, the results of a simulation must be scrutinized and evaluated against reality, because a single erroneous assumption or programming error can render the simulation completely invalid.

Which brings me to the point of this essay: The notion that any computer simulation of biological evolution has anything to do with reality is a complete fantasy. And the notion that any computer simulation of the earth’s climate into the distant future can be relied upon is an equivalent fantasy.

These computer simulations are cartoons.

Comments
Dear lars, Thanks much. My calling is to follow the Captain to the best of my ability. Life is ephemeral and I have only one wish when it is over, to hear the words: "Well done, good and faithful servant."GilDodgen
April 30, 2009
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Gil, Clearly there are good reasons for spending your time elsewhere, and there are good reasons for staying. For my part, I have been edified, encouraged, and strengthened by your posts. Your presence would be missed. If you leave here shaking the dust off your feet, you would be following good precedents. I definitely agree that family is more important than writing to a web audience, and other more personal ministries may be much more in line with where the Captain is directing you to spend your effort in the ongoing race. Whatever you decide, thanks for your past contributions and for investing your gifts in this area. Larslars
April 30, 2009
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Furthermore, I find that there is a tendency among some theoreticians (i.e., folks who do mathematical modeling and simulations, but do not actually test them against reality in nature) to assume that, if something observed in the field does not fit the model, it is the observation that is the problem, rather than the model.
Allen, That was the point of my essay, and you have summarized it far more eloquently and succinctly than I did. In any event, I've decided to move on and invest my time in stuff that really matters, like family and ministry that edifies individual human lives.GilDodgen
April 27, 2009
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sal gal: You are quite correct, and if I erred in overstating the similarities between mathematical modeling and simulations (as it appears to me on reading your comment), the error was entirely my own.Allen_MacNeill
April 27, 2009
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The question marks in my last comment are ligated "fi" in the text I copied and pasted. The messed up words are crucial ones: finite and infinite. They looked fine in the preview.Sal Gal
April 27, 2009
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Allen (68), There are big differences between analytic modeling (think in terms of classical population genetics) and simulation modeling. As you are well aware, theoretical biologists often introduce rather extreme simplifying assumptions in order to make mathematical analysis tractable. It is commonly possible to simulate conditions much more realistic than those that permit analysis. Simulation results do not prove anything, in the ordinary sense of proof, but they sometimes establish that analytic results are incorrect under realistic circumstances. For instance, so-called evolutionarily stable strategies are sometimes not stable under evolutionary dynamics (Fogel GB, Andrews PC, and Fogel DB, 1998, "On the Instability of Evolutionary Stable Strategies in Small Populations," Ecological Modelling, Vol. 109, pp. 283-294):
Abstract Evolutionary stable strategies (ESSs) are often used to explain the behaviors of individuals and species. The analysis of ESSs determines which, if any, combinations of behaviors cannot be invaded by alternative strategies. Two assumptions required to generate an ESS (i.e. an in?nite population and payoffs described only on the average) do not hold under natural conditions. Previous experiments have indicated that under more realistic conditions of ?nite populations and stochastic payoffs, populations may evolve in trajectories that are unrelated to an ESS, even in very simple evolutionary games. The simulations are extended here to small populations with varying levels of selection pressure and mixing levels. The results suggest that ESSs may not provide a good explanation of the behavior of small populations even at relatively low levels of selection pressure and even under persistent mixing. The implications of these results are discussed briefly in light of previous literature which claimed that ESSs generated suitable explanations of real-world data. [full text]
The assumptions I've emphasized often underlie theorems in genetics beloved by "Mendel good, Darwin bad" IDers. Replacing a random variable with it's expected value is often mathematically convenient, but is usually dubious. And reproductive isolation of small populations has been a key component of theories of speciation since the 1950's, IIRC.Sal Gal
April 27, 2009
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Allen suggests "that a “meta” thread on the subject of “natural law” might also be quite interesting and productive?" I agree. There does seem to be a langauge gap between those who appeal to that term in a design vs. non-design context. Is it possible that confused definitions are responsible for some of the less-than-civil (sometimes coming from my corner) interchanges and accusations of "stonewalling?" I, for one, would like to find out.StephenB
April 27, 2009
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Gil, Please don't let a handful of bad mannered Darwin-bots (to quote Denyse) run you off. Barrett in post #28 is right. There are many visitors here who never post and your expertise adds much to the discussion. I'm formally asking you to re-consider! Donald MDonaldM
April 27, 2009
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It's unfortunate that Gil's competence was challenged, but those things happen, even on this board. For instance, recently a well-published computer scientist/mathematician, whose work has been cited in support of ID, was told, "trying to explain computational number theory to you would be as futile as trying to explain calculus to someone who can’t add fractions." We all need to work on being more respectful.R0b
April 27, 2009
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If I may, could I add my voice to those calling for a separate "meta" thread on the subject of moderation, and also suggest (based on our experience with the thread on "Bleak Conclusions" that a "meta" thread on the subject of "natural law" might also be quite interesting and productive? I believe that evolutionary biologists (and indeed, most other empirical scientists) have a very different idea of what "natural laws" might be, and it would be instructive for all of us to see what such differences might be. These threads could live in the sidebar with the Moderation Policy and the "What Arguments Not To Use" policy. It would certainly be helpful to people just joining the conversation, and might help to reduce the level of rancor here. Just a suggestion...Allen_MacNeill
April 27, 2009
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Forgive me if I seemed to imply that mathematical models or simulations of evolution are not likely to help us understand how evolution works. What I meant to say is that they are of limited utility in understanding how particular cases of descent with modification have occurred. Furthermore, I find that there is a tendency among some theoreticians (i.e. folks who do mathematical modeling and simulations, but do not actually test them against reality in the nature) to assume that, if something observed in the field does not fit the model, it is the observation that is the problem, rather than the model. IOW, I always remember that there is a world of difference between the moon and the finger pointing at the moon...Allen_MacNeill
April 27, 2009
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Mr MacNeil, I think most people who have worked with simulations are painfully aware of their limitations. I would take a comment that simulation has outlived its usefulness in evolutionary theory much more seriously from someone who claimed some familiarity with them. However, I am intrigued - what are the areas in which you feel evolutionary theory needs to progress, and why is mathematical and computer simulation not likely to help in these areas?Nakashima
April 27, 2009
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As for this being Mr. Dodgen's last post, I do find that unfortunate. I am not conversant in the field of computer simulation, and therefore have found the debates about the various merits and limitations of this technique to be generally enlightening, especially when they have focused on substance, rather than personalities or questions of authority. That said, I must also state that I am generally skeptical of any claims for the usefulness of mathematical or computer simulations on either side of the EB/ID divide. I have written elsewhere of my own belief that the reduction of evolutionary biology to mathematical models (i.e. the epistemological core of the "modern evolutionary synthesis"), while it served a useful purpose at the time, has now outlived that usefulness and may in some cases now represent a stumbling block to further progress in evolutionary theory. All of that is beside the point when considering Mr. Dodgen's withdrawal from the fray here at UD. I have often strenuously disagreed with him, especially when he has posted unsupported condemnations of evolutionary theory, but due to my lack of expertise in the field of computer simulation, I have generally withheld commenting on his posts. That said, I do believe that having him contribute here has merit, and hope that he changes his mind and decides to re-enter the lists, fully armed and ready for combat. To paraphrase a well-known quote,
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of ignorance is for those with knowledge to remain silent."
This is why I take out a significant portion of my days to comment here and to post on my blog, and hope that the rest agree that knowledge is always a good thing, no matter how painfully attained.Allen_MacNeill
April 27, 2009
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There is a fine line between attacking people and attacking their arguments. This is particularly the case if part of their argument consists of arguments from authority, and the authority cited is themselves. Under such conditions, it becomes difficult to attack such an argument without seeming to attack the person. Consequently, I have attempted to frame my own arguments in such a way as to cite only published evidence, and to omit references to my own expertise in a field. I am the first to admit that this is not always possible, and even that I have been tempted (and sometimes have given in to the temptation) to cite my own knowledge or training in a particular field when discussing some bit of evidence from that field. Ergo, mea culpa, and I will attempt to stick to arguments of substance, rather than resort to arguments from authority (including my own) henceforth, and would hope that the rest of us will do the same.Allen_MacNeill
April 27, 2009
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Hamlet is no longer with us. After repeated warnings to stop beating Gil personally, he just could not seem to help himself. Barry Arrington
April 26, 2009
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and leave it for the reader with half a wit to wonder how much Tom Cech sounds like Gil Dodgen. Assuming he accepts the appeal to your authority as to how Tom Cech sounds.tribune7
April 26, 2009
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No, they simply drop names.
I juxtapose names, and leave it for the reader with half a wit to wonder how much Tom Cech sounds like Gil Dodgen.Hamlet
April 26, 2009
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Nakashima, I hope Gil will resume commenting, but will focus on arguing his points rather than arguing for his authority. I don't expect to see Gil return, however, because I think he is actually protesting Barry Arrington's policy on dissenting opinion. It has been evident for some time that he has been frustrated by non-IDers having their say. I have complimented Barry before, and I do so again. It was big of him to reverse his decision to ban you. This is a much more difficult forum for IDers now than it was when the Expelled were expelling dissidents at every turn. But if you want freedom of expression, you've got to show the way.Hamlet
April 26, 2009
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The best folks simply do not operate that way. No, they simply drop names. tribune7
April 26, 2009
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That is merely how Gil presents to the thousands of lurkers who know too little about AI and simulation to distinguish expertise from techno-babble. OK, this is the sort of stuff that probably ticked off Gil. A guy who calls himself Hamlet makes a rather personal -- and unsubstantiated attack on a fellow with experience and notable real-world success in the field of simulations and AI. He has demonstrated in the past that he has no appreciation for the enormous range of ways in which simulation models may be developed and applied. Or he has demonstrated that he has little tolerance of those who try to techno-babble their way to authority. Gil is a very bright guy, but considering how he reports having spent much of his life, I would say that his area of expertise is hang gliding. Again, an anonymous poster makes a personal attack on someone with a record of achievement.tribune7
April 26, 2009
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By the way, I spoke with the Nobel laureate Tom Cech -- the guy who discovered that RNA could catalyze reactions -- last week. He, like most people who know a great deal about a topic, was quite unassuming. I've met quite a few outstanding researchers, and only one of them expected me to listen because of who he was. Anyone who tries to persuade you he's right by portraying himself as an expert is probably engaged in manipulation. The best folks simply do not operate that way.Hamlet
April 26, 2009
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tribune7 says,
we should all accept that Gil is an expert on AI & simulations...
That is merely how Gil presents to the thousands of lurkers who know too little about AI and simulation to distinguish expertise from techno-babble. Gil is a programmer who tweaked a program for playing a particular two-adversary game of perfect information, checkers, into a high level of performance. He published no novel technique. Google Scholar yields one reference to a technical paper available at his website. The brute-force techniques he implemented are quite unlike those that succeed in other areas of AI. And Gil has never given any evidence that he has studied other areas of AI. He labels computational checkers-playing as AI, and then presents himself as an AI expert. Gil, according to his posts here at UD, got his job in the aerospace industry two or three years ago. He did not have simulation experience, but a hang-gliding buddy emphasized that "Gil will get the job done." The upshot is that he has gotten on-the-job training in simulation for a very limited application domain. For those of us who have seen many applications of simulation models, how little he actually knows is apparent in how makes much of having received one week of instruction in the use of one particular package for finite-element analysis. As I said in my second comment in the deleted thread, "There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your [simulation]." Gil's notion of validating a simulation model is to determine if it accurately predicts the trajectory of parachute-and-payload under powered guidance. He has demonstrated in the past that he has no appreciation for the enormous range of ways in which simulation models may be developed and applied. Gil is a very bright guy, but considering how he reports having spent much of his life, I would say that his area of expertise is hang gliding.Hamlet
April 26, 2009
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Mr Diffaxial, My 'better idea' is to let this thread close. If the moderators want to open a new one to discuss the merits of a position on simulation or another topic, fine. But right now I feel this thread is become somewhat inappropriate, since it is discussing Mr Dodgen as a person, when he has said he no longer wants to comment.Nakashima
April 26, 2009
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What I would like to see, particularly from those who are critical of the use of computational modeling in evolutionary theory, is a computational model of design. Creating such a model forces one to concretize the "moving parts" of one's model. I'd have to imagine an computational model of ID would consist of an endless series of assignment statements, and nothing more. Anyone have a better idea?Diffaxial
April 26, 2009
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Gil, You are tops in my book. A genuine scientist, with a earnest desire to seek and know the truth. You definitely honor God sincerely in your life through such a spirit to know the truth. I believe Jesus said God seeks as such to worship Him. I honestly respect you and hate to see UD give atheists with no respect for truth, nor any desire to find it, such freedom to disrupt this site as they do. I will miss you on this site, and I definitely miss the old UD too. The old UD where greater levels of understanding were encouraged and sought after, instead of the petty arguing over mundane points that atheists have turned UD into.bornagain77
April 26, 2009
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Gil, I've been an avid lurker here (posting only very occasionally) for many years. I've always found your posts to be a beacon of absolute clarity and fresh air, and they will be missed!Matteo
April 26, 2009
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Gil, You are tops in my book. A genuine scientist, with a earnest desire to seek and know the truth. You definitely honor God sincerely in truth and spirit. I honestly respect you and hate to see UD give people with no respect for truth such freedom to disrupt this site. I will miss you on this site.bornagain77
April 26, 2009
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Oh, I don't know, I suppose it might have something to do with the rather classless act of not allowing a classy man to say goodbye in peace.StephenB
April 26, 2009
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And unfair. I see nothing in Hamlet's post to warrant your accusations. There are plenty of Christians who think, as Hamlet does, that "ID is both bad science and bad theology." As far as I can see Hamlet's posts have been reasonable points about the power of computer simulations from someone who works in the field. Furthermore, he references two ID supporters here as agreeing with him. So why the unkind and unfair slam?hazel
April 26, 2009
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That is really unkind.hazel
April 26, 2009
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