Uncommon Descent Serving The Intelligent Design Community

Of coin-tosses, expectation, materialistic question-begging and forfeit of credibility by materialists

Share
Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Flipboard
Print
Email

Yesterday, I crossed a Rubicon, for cause, on seeing the refusal to stop from enabling denial and correct and deal with slander on the part of even the most genteel of the current wave of critics.

It is time to face what we are dealing with squarely: ideologues on the attack.  (Now, in a wave of TSZ denizens back here at UD and hoping to swarm down, twist into pretzels, ridicule and dismiss the basic case for design.)

coin-flip
Flipping a coin . . . is it fair? (Cr: Making Near Future Predictions, fair use)

Sal C has been the most prolific recent contributor at UD, and a pivotal case he has put forth is the discovery of a box of five hundred coins, all heads.

What is the best explanation?

The talking point gymnastics to avoid the obvious conclusion that have been going on for a while now, have been sadly instructive on the mindset of the committed ideological materialist and that of his or her fellow travellers.

(For those who came in 30 years or so late, “fellow travellers” is a term of art that described those who made common cause with the outright Marxists, on one argument or motive or another. I will not cite Lenin’s less polite term for such.  The term, fellow traveller, is of obviously broader applicability and relevance today.)

Now, I intervened just now in a thread that further follows up on the coin tossing exercise and wish to headline the comment:

_____________

>> I observe:

NR, at 5: >> Biological organisms do not look designed >>

The above clip and the wider thread provide a good example of the sort of polarisation and refusal to examine matters squarely on the merits that too often characterises objectors to design theory.

coin_prob_percent
A plot of typical patterns of coin tossing, showing the overwhelming trend for the average percent of H’s to move to the mean, as a percentage even as the absolute difference between H and T will diverge across time.  (Credit: problemgambling.ca, fair use)

In the case of coin tossing, all heads, all tails, alternating H and T, etc. are all obvious patterns that are simply describable (i.e. without in effect quoting the strings). Such patterns can be assigned a set of special zones, Z = {z1, z2, z3 . . . zn} of one or more outcomes, in the space of possibilities, W.

Thus is effected a partition of the configuration space.

It is quite obvious that |W| >> |Z|, overwhelmingly so; let us symbolise this |W| >> . . . > |Z|.

Now, we put forth the Bernoulli-Laplace indifference assumption that is relevant here through the stipulation of a fair coin. (We can examine symmetry etc of a coin, or do frequency tests to see that such will for practical purposes be close enough. It is not hard to see that unless a coin is outrageously biased, the assumption is reasonable. [BTW, this implies that it is formally possible that if a fair coin is tossed 500 times, it is logically possible that it will be all heads. But that is not the pivotal point.])

When we do an exercise of tossing, we are in fact doing a sample of W, in which the partition that a given outcome, si in S [the set of possible samples], comes from, will be dominated by relative statistical weight. S is of course such that |S| >> . . . > |W|. That is, there are far more ways to sample from W in a string of actual samples s1, s2, . . . sn, than there are number of configs in W.

(This is where the Marks-Dembski search for a search challenge, S4S, comes in. Sampling the samplings can be a bigger task than sampling the set of possibilities.)

Where, now, we have a needle in haystack problem that on the gamut of the solar system [our practical universe for chemical level atomic interactions], the number of samples that is possible as an actual exercise is overwhelmingly smaller than S, and indeed than W.

Under these circumstances, we take a sample si, 500 tosses.

The balance of the partitions is such that by all but certainty, we will find a cluster of H & T in no particular order, close to 250 H: 250 T. The farther away one gets from that balance, the less likely it will be, through the sharp peaked-ness of the binomial distribution of fair coin tosses.

Under these circumstances, we have no good reason to expect to see a special pattern like 500 H, etc. Indeed, such a unique and highly noticeable config will predictably — with rather high reliability — not be observed once on the gamut of the observed solar system, even were the solar system dedicated to doing nothing but tossing coins for its lifespan.

That is chance manifest in coin tossing is not a plausible account for 500 H, or the equivalent, a line of 500 coins in a tray all H’s.

However, if we were now to come upon a tray with 500 coins, all H’s, we can very plausibly account for it on a known, empirically grounded causal pattern: intelligent designers exist and have been known to set highly contingent systems to special values suited to their purposes.

Indeed, such are the only empirically warranted sources.

Where, for instance we are just such intelligences.

So, the reasonable person coming on a tray of 500 coins in a row, all H, will infer that per best empirically warranted explanation, design is the credible cause. (And that person will infer the same if a coin tossing exercises presented as fair coin tossing, does the equivalent. We can reliably know that design is involved without knowing the mechanism.)

Nor does this change if the discoverer did not see the event happening. That is, from a highly contingent outcome that does not fit chance very well but does fit design well, one may properly infer design as explanation.

Indeed, that pattern of a specific, recognisable pattern utterly unlikely by chance but by no means inherently unlikely to the point of dismissal by design, is a plausible sign of design as best causal explanation.

The same would obtain if instead of 500 H etc, we discovered that the coins were in a pattern that spelled out, using ASCII code, remarks in English or object code for a computer, etc. In this case, the pattern is recognised as a functionally specific, complex one.

Why then, do we see such violent opposition to inferring design on FSCO/I etc in non-toy cases?

Obviously, because objectors are making or are implying the a priori stipulation (often unacknowledged, sometimes unrecognised) that it is practically certain that no designer is POSSIBLE at the point in question.

For under such a circumstance, chance is the only reasonable candidate left to account for high contingency. (Mechanical necessity does not lead to high contingency.)

So, we see why there is a strong appearance of design, and we see why there is a reluctance or even violently hostile refusal to accept that that appearance can indeed be a good reason to accept that on the inductively reliable sign FSCO/I and related analysis, design is the best causal explanation.

In short, we are back to the problem of materialist ideology dressed up in a lab coat.

I think the time has more than come to expose that, and to highlight the problems with a priori materialism as a worldview, whether it is dressed up in a lab coat or not.

We can start with Haldane’s challenge:

“It seems to me immensely unlikely that mind is a mere by-product of matter. For if my mental processes are determined wholly by the motions of atoms in my brain I have no reason to suppose that my beliefs are true. They may be sound chemically, but that does not make them sound logically. And hence I have no reason for supposing my brain to be composed of atoms. In order to escape from this necessity of sawing away the branch on which I am sitting, so to speak, I am compelled to believe that mind is not wholly conditioned by matter. [[“When I am dead,” in Possible Worlds: And Other Essays [1927], Chatto and Windus: London, 1932, reprint, p.209.]

This and other related challenges (cf here on in context) render evolutionary materialism so implausible as a worldview that we may safely dismiss it. Never mind how it loves to dress up in a lab coat and shale the coat at us as if to frighten us.

So, the reasonable person, in the face of such evidence, will accept the credibility of the sign — FSCO/I — and the possibility of design that such a strong and empirically grounded appearance points to.

But, notoriously, ideologues are not reasonable persons.

For further illustration, observe above the attempt to divert the discussion into definitions of what an intelligent and especially a conscious intelligent agent is.

Spoken of course, by a conscious intelligent agent who is refusing to accept that the billions of us on the ground are examples of what intelligent designers are. Nope, until you can give a precising definition acceptable to him [i.e. inevitably, consistent with evolutionary materialism — which implies or even denies that such agency is possible leading to self referential absurdity . . . ], he is unwilling to accept the testimony of his own experience and observation.

I call that a breach of common sense and self referential incoherence.>>

____________

The point is, the credibility of materialist ideologues is fatally undermined by their closed-minded demand to conform to unreasonable a prioris. Lewontin’s notorious cat- out- of- the- bag statement in NYRB, January 1997 is emblematic:

. . . . the problem is to get [the public] to reject irrational and supernatural explanations of the world, the demons that exist only in their imaginations, and to accept a social and intellectual apparatus, Science, as the only begetter of truth [[–> NB: this is a knowledge claim about knowledge and its possible sources, i.e. it is a claim in philosophy not science; it is thus self-refuting]. . . .

[T]he practices of science provide the surest method of putting us in contact with physical reality, and that, in contrast, the demon-haunted world rests on a set of beliefs and behaviors that fail every reasonable test  [[–> i.e. an assertion that tellingly reveals a hostile mindset, not a warranted claim] . . . .

It is not that the methods and institutions of science somehow compel us to accept a material explanation of the phenomenal world, but, on the contrary, that we are forced by our a priori adherence to material causes [[–> another major begging of the question . . . ] to create an apparatus of investigation and a set of concepts that produce material explanations, no matter how counter-intuitive, no matter how mystifying to the uninitiated. Moreover, that materialism is absolute [[–> i.e. here we see the fallacious, indoctrinated, ideological, closed mind . . . ], for we cannot allow a Divine Foot in the door. [“Billions and Billions of Demons,” NYRB, January 9, 1997. Bold emphasis and notes added. of course, it is a commonplace materialist talking point to dismiss such a cite as “quote mining. I suggest that if you are tempted to believe that convenient dismissal, kindly cf the linked, where you will see the more extensive cite and notes.]

No wonder, in November that year, ID thinker Philip Johnson rebutted:

For scientific materialists the materialism comes first; the science comes thereafter. [[Emphasis original] We might more accurately term them “materialists employing science.” And if materialism is true, then some materialistic theory of evolution has to be true simply as a matter of logical deduction, regardless of the evidence. That theory will necessarily be at least roughly like neo-Darwinism, in that it will have to involve some combination of random changes and law-like processes capable of producing complicated organisms that (in Dawkins’ words) “give the appearance of having been designed for a purpose.”
. . . .   The debate about creation and evolution is not deadlocked . . . Biblical literalism is not the issue. The issue is whether materialism and rationality are the same thing. Darwinism is based on an a priori commitment to materialism, not on a philosophically neutral assessment of the evidence. Separate the philosophy from the science, and the proud tower collapses. [[Emphasis added.] [[The Unraveling of Scientific Materialism, First Things, 77 (Nov. 1997), pp. 22 – 25.]

Too often, such ideological closed-mindedness and question-begging multiplied by a propensity to be unreasonable, ruthless and even nihilistic or at least to be an enabler going along with such ruthlessness.

Which ends up back at the point that when — not if, such an utterly incoherent system is simply not sustainable, and is so damaging to the moral stability of a society that it will inevitably self-destruct [cf. Plato’s warning here, given 2,350 years ago]  — such materialism lies utterly defeated and on the ash-heap of history, there will come a day of reckoning for the enablers, who will need to take a tour of their shame and explain or at least ponder why they went along with the inexcusable.

Hence the ugly but important significance of the following picture in which, shortly after its liberation, American troops forced citizens of nearby Wiemar to tour Buchenwald so that  the people of Germany who went along as enablers with what was done in the name of their nation by utterly nihilistic men they allowed to rule over them, could not ever deny the truth of their shame thereafter:

Buchenwald01
A tour of shame at Buchenwald, showing here the sad, shocking but iconic moment when a woman from the nearby city of Wiemar could not but avert her eyes in horror and shame for what nihilistic men — enabled by the passivity of the German people in the face of the rise of an obviously destructive ideology since 1932 — had done in the name of her now forever tainted nation

It is time to heed Francis Schaeffer in his turn of the 1980’s series, Whatever Happened to the Human Race, an expose of the implications and agendas of evolutionary materialist secular humanism that was ever so much derided and dismissed at the time, but across time has proved to be dead on target even as we now have reached the threshold of post-birth abortion and other nihilistic horrors:

[youtube 8uoFkVroRyY]

And, likewise, we need to heed a preview of the tour of shame to come, Expelled by Ben Stein:

[youtube V5EPymcWp-g]

Finally, we need to pause and listen to Weikart’s warning from history in this lecture:

[youtube w_5EwYpLD6A]

Yes, I know, these things are shocking, painful, even offensive to the genteel; who are too often to be found in enabling denial of the patent facts and will be prone to blame the messenger instead of deal with the problem.

However, as a descendant of slaves who is concerned for our civilisation’s trends in our time, I must speak. Even as the horrors of the slave ship and the plantation had to be painfully, even shockingly exposed two centuries and more past.

I must ask you, what genteel people sipping their slave-sugared tea 200 years ago,  thought of images like this:

African_woman_slave_trade
An African captive about to be whipped on a slave-trade ship, revealing the depravity of ruthless men able to do as they please with those in their power (CR: Wiki)

Sometimes, the key issues at stake in a given day are not nice and pretty, and some ugly things need to be faced, if horrors of the magnitude of the century just past are to be averted in this new Millennium. END

Comments
With all due respect, it is quite evident from the just above that you are simply looking for straws to clutch at in hopes they will save your a priori exclusion of reasonable explanatory possibilities from sinking.
If you can find any mathematical fault with what I'm saying please say so.
Yes, if we toss coins, it must have some one outcome or another, where any one outcome is improbable. What is NOT improbable — it is the overwhelming bulk of the distribution — is that the sheer statistical weight of the dominant cluster will tell: a near 250H:250T distribution in no particular special order such as HTHT . . . or ASCII code etc. It is no surprise to see such an expected result, but we should be highly suspicious if there is a possibility of design and we see the sort of deeply isolated outcome from one of the special zones listed and mentioned above.
I agreed that you would expect a random mix of approximately half Hs and half Ts. But why are you so convinced by a fluke result of all head which you admit is possible?
As for the remark from 107, you have in effect decided to do one of two things: (a) rule out inferences to not- directly- observed entities inferred on inference to best explanation on signs (including circumstantial evidence in law), or (b) you are indulging in selective hyperskepticism.
I just don't see the need to invoke agents which have not been proven to exist. That's not hyperskepticism, that's just being pragmatic.
Since I have no doubt that you believe in electrons, the general picture of the deep past in biology, geology and cosmology commonly presented as scientific, and the like, it is patent that the problem is B. Where it does not suit you, you have no intention to accept any cumulative case that points where you would not go.
What do electrons have to do with it? Again, I have no problem with a designer but I need a lot better evidence than getting 500 heads in a row, an outcome which is perfectly well explained by chance. Why is your acceptance of design at such a low threshold? We're talking about something truly amazing and miraculous I trust. I'd want to be damn sure. Like not just being improbable but being impossible based on the laws of physics as we understand them.
To such, I simply repeat, FSCO/I is a well tested — billions of cases — and empirically reliable sign of design. As with the second law of thermodynamics, it is now the objector who carries the burden to show cause by way of empirically observed counter example. The toy case being analysed in this thread and elsewhere is actually supportive, showing through a concrete example, why the generalisation that we can infer on sign from FSCO/I to design as best causal explanation works.
But you need to show that you can detect design dependably and repeatedly. Will you accept a challenge? I have one in mind.
Instead of the twistabout cited, the wiser stance is that the evidence of say digital code and organised execution machinery in the living cell points to design as best explanation.
Just because you find it a more parsimonious explanation doesn't make it so. You assume something you don't need to assume.
The Darwinists are only interested in making the point that it is possible to flip 500 coins and get heads, and that it is possible for Darwinian processes to generate what we see in biology.
Well, that a concession of sorts.
There is no physical law that prevents such things from occurring, and for those desperate to cling to a particular worldview, bare possibility is all that is necessary to ignore the blatantly obvious.
But we shouldn't assume agents without absolutely having to do so correct?
If bare possibility is enough to satisfy a Darwinist or materialists that 500 heads in row is sufficiently explained by chance, then there is no evidence that can be presented that can change their minds about either the fine-tuning of the universe or about Darwinistic evolutionary “explanations”.
Now I call strawman on this. We never said we would just 'accept' chance without first being damn sure there was no bias in the system. You guys focus on the possible end result without considering the process because you don't like the fact that we don't see the need for design IN THIS PARTICULAR CASE. Suggest something else, show me a situation.
Every possible sequence of 500 Hs and Ts is equally likely. We all agree.
No, Jerad, that is false. The odds of getting some pattern is exactly 1 and it won’t be all H not all T.
You know, one thing that bothers me about this forum is that some of the ID supporters will not bother to correct their fellows when they get something wrong. Dr Sewell, Sal, Donald, Denyse? If you don't point out when one of your prolific commentators is wrong it just looks like you are unable to distinguish good arguments from bad ones.
That sort of reasoning might be adequate for some Darwinists, but for some ID-ists (myself included) it may feel uncomfortable that there is formally a remote possibility for the chance hypothesis being true.
Heaven forbid anyone should have to accept something that is uncomfortable or against their beliefs.
Rather than saying the possibility of chance as a solution is absurd, I realized, if I framed it in terms of reasonable wagers and payoffs, Design was a better bet than Darwin. When I realized that, Design became clearly the better bet. I found peace on the matter in that way. In view of all the uncertainties, and lack of absolute knowledge, I at least knew I was making the best bet given what I knew.
I'd probably make the same bets at you would. But I do so because of the mathematics. And the science. Will you help me correct some of your co-ID proponents in their misunderstandings of the mathematics?Jerad
June 30, 2013
June
06
Jun
30
30
2013
12:26 PM
12
12
26
PM
PDT
Maybe, you uneasiness, an intuitive fear, is not well-grounded here.
Perhaps. I'm a Doubting Thomas by nature. But what I try not to do is make bad wagers. :-) Darwinism, Multiverses, non-Existence of God? I wouldn't bet on that. Clearly I'm casting my lot (pun intended) with the Intelligent Designer.scordova
June 30, 2013
June
06
Jun
30
30
2013
10:09 AM
10
10
09
AM
PDT
SC: Yup, 3 and 4 or 5 sigma events are not unheard of. A 22 sigma (per your own calc) is a different kettle of fish. The soft roadblock of being so deeply isolated in a config space that realistic samples are all but certain to miss a relevant zone, is as real as any other. And even if those odds were beat once or twice that would be one thing. Just to get to first life, we are looking at getting the right cluster of wins against odds longer than 500H, dozens to hundreds of times over. That is one case where the notion of a chance contingency driven process falls apart -- no wonder this is dead in OOL work. And, the other naturalistic appeal, blind mechanical necessity or a ratchet of the two run into on the first want of contingency and on the other both the scale of required functionally specific complexity and the fact that the required reproduction is entangled in the problem. The only credible, empirically grounded explanation for so much FSCO/I is design. And once design is at the root of the tree of life there can be no good reason to exclude it thereafter. No wonder the UD Darwin essay challenge is not seriously answered after nine months and counting. KFkairosfocus
June 30, 2013
June
06
Jun
30
30
2013
10:04 AM
10
10
04
AM
PDT
SNIP -- I instructed you by warning and you responded by alluding to a particularly nasty slander. I hope I do not need to tell you further that you have long since worn out any welcome you may have had. I will leave this for you as a way you may return: have the decency to apologise and amend your ways. Shame on you! GEM of TKIkeiths
June 30, 2013
June
06
Jun
30
30
2013
09:29 AM
9
09
29
AM
PDT
'formally' (a remote possibility) is still the operative words, Salvatore. Would a 4 sigma losing streak be even remotely in the same ballpark as the fine-tuning of the universe, Sal? It's not entirely a rhetorical question, as my impression concerning matters I know next to nothing about wouldn't necessarily be so. But one nought of the multiple odds against a random fine-tuning of the universe for every subatomic particle in the universe, indeed, more, sounds to me 'way out there, man', as an old hippie might say. Maybe. Maybe, you uneasiness, an intuitive fear, is not well-grounded here.Axel
June 30, 2013
June
06
Jun
30
30
2013
08:30 AM
8
08
30
AM
PDT
If bare possibility is enough to satisfy a Darwinist or materialists that 500 heads in row is sufficiently explained by chance, then there is no evidence that can be presented that can change their minds about either the fine-tuning of the universe or about Darwinistic evolutionary “explanations”. There will always be enough chance, for them, to fill in the gaps.
That sort of reasoning might be adequate for some Darwinists, but for some ID-ists (myself included) it may feel uncomfortable that there is formally a remote possibility for the chance hypothesis being true. In my time at the blackjack tables, I've seen unfavorable 2 sigma deviations from expectation with distressing regularity, sometimes a 3 sigma event. I've had colleagues who had a 4 sigma losing streak. The vaunted Massachusetts Institute of Technology Blackjack Team was once in the red for 9 months. I estimated that was probably a 2.5 sigma event. In the skilled gambling community (we call ourselves Advantage Players or APs), we all know in a group of a few thousand of us, one of us poor chaps is going to get clocked with a 3 or more sigma losing streak....thus the chance hypothesis lingers in our minds as well. Rather than saying the possibility of chance as a solution is absurd, I realized, if I framed it in terms of reasonable wagers and payoffs, Design was a better bet than Darwin. When I realized that, Design became clearly the better bet. I found peace on the matter in that way. In view of all the uncertainties, and lack of absolute knowledge, I at least knew I was making the best bet given what I knew. Hence I wrote: https://uncommondescent.com/philosophy/holy-rollers-pascals-wager-if-id-is-wrong-it-was-an-honest-mistake/scordova
June 30, 2013
June
06
Jun
30
30
2013
07:14 AM
7
07
14
AM
PDT
Another killer post, your #115, William! (Sorry if this getting to sound sycophantic) It's more pithy and amusing, though, without the last brief sentence, since the fact that it's 100% true detracts from the illusion of its mordantly satirical flavour. It reminds me of a journalist's elliptical response to the base, zany vilification of Martin Luther King by a certain American socialite. It went something like this: 'Evidently, nothing can now tarnish the reputation of (socialite).' Again, doubtless perfectly factual, albeit on a more 'folk' level.Axel
June 30, 2013
June
06
Jun
30
30
2013
06:57 AM
6
06
57
AM
PDT
Jerad:
Every possible sequence of 500 Hs and Ts is equally likely. We all agree.
No, Jerad, that is false. The odds of getting some pattern is exactly 1 and it won't be all H not all T.Joe
June 30, 2013
June
06
Jun
30
30
2013
06:34 AM
6
06
34
AM
PDT
Wow! In a nutshell - your #112, William. You left out the catch-all multiverse. But sometimes, labour-intensive is better. I got a bit lost with your finely-tuned machine, but I felt better for having read it; as the purple-coloured taffe captured my imagination. Oddly enough, they are not hyperbolical at all, are they? A universe is something else, as they say (with all due deference to a multiverse that might have ears and be listening).Axel
June 30, 2013
June
06
Jun
30
30
2013
06:28 AM
6
06
28
AM
PDT
And Lizzie talks about herself:
What frustrates me about a lot of ID vs Evolution discussions is that people talk past each other, and misunderstand each other’s positions, or make assumptions that, in my view, beg the very question at issue.
That is Lizzie- she doesn't understand ID. She doesn't understand darwinism and she always makes assumptions that beg the question. Now I know she will say, again, that it is I who doesn't understand darwinism. However I have supported everything I have said about darwinism with valid references. OTOH she uses herself to support what she sez.Joe
June 30, 2013
June
06
Jun
30
30
2013
06:20 AM
6
06
20
AM
PDT
Elizabeth:
Behe’s case was that such structures could not in principle evolve, not that they could not evolve in biology.
That is incorrect. Dr Behe point was IC could not evolve via blind and undirected processes. It appears that you know less about ID then you do about darwiniam.
AVIDA showed that both IC structures could evolve by Darwinian mechanisms...
No, it did not as AVIDA does not mimic darwinian processes.
Thus Behe’s principle was falsified by AVIDA.
Only to the willfully ignorant. So here we have Lizzie, clueless about ID and clueless about darwinism, thinking that she can opine on both. AVIDA, of course, was deconstructed above in the thread. The parameters chosen were picked to create an utterly false impression of success, and by loading in NAND gates -- ANY digital logic entity can be built up from NANDS (or alternatively NORs) -- and the incremental reward of toy-scale increments relative to what body plans would need, the whole was designed to give a misleading impression, just like Weasel. Frankly, it is a set-up, or maybe stronger language would be needed, let's say that a stock promoter who tried a stunt like this would be headed for the Big House. And to think they got away with this in Judge Jones' court room . . . have a look at Dr Marks' video for more on this. KFJoe
June 30, 2013
June
06
Jun
30
30
2013
06:17 AM
6
06
17
AM
PDT
If bare possibility is enough to satisfy a Darwinist or materialists that 500 heads in row is sufficiently explained by chance, then there is no evidence that can be presented that can change their minds about either the fine-tuning of the universe or about Darwinistic evolutionary "explanations". There will always be enough chance, for them, to fill in the gaps. PREZACTLY, that is exactly why, a priori, the want to redefine science -- in their minds tantamount to knowledge in naturalistic terms. Question-begging on the grand scale imposed on science, sci ed and popularisation. When people realise the ideologisation and where it is going a la Plato's warning, there is going to be a huge blow-up, bang goes credibility. These ideologues are playing with a fire they don't dream of what it will do if unchecked. But then, that is what James 3 is all about. KFWilliam J Murray
June 30, 2013
June
06
Jun
30
30
2013
05:00 AM
5
05
00
AM
PDT
PPS: Let's clip a few juicy snippets from Abel: ________ >> at some point our reluctance to exclude any possibility becomes stultifying to operational science [10]. Falsification is critical to narrowing down the list of serious possibilities [11]. Almost all hypotheses are possible. Few of them wind up being helpful and scientifically productive. Just because a hypothesis is possible should not grant that hypothesis scientific respectability. More attention to the concept of "infeasibility" has been suggested [12]. Millions of dollars in astrobiology grant money have been wasted on scenarios that are possible, but plausibly bankrupt. The question for scientific methodology should not be, "Is this scenario possible?" The question should be, "Is this possibility a plausible scientific hypothesis?" One chance in 10200 is theoretically possible, but given maximum cosmic probabilistic resources, such a possibility is hardly plausible. With funding resources rapidly drying up, science needs a foundational principle by which to falsify a myriad of theoretical possibilities that are not worthy of serious scientific consideration and modeling. Proving a theory is considered technically unachievable [11]. Few bench scientists realize that falsification has also been shown by philosophers of science to be at best technically suspect [13]. Nevertheless, operational science has no choice but to proceed primarily by a process of elimination through practical falsification of competing models and theories. >> >> Great care must be taken at this point, especially given the many non intuitive aspects of scientifically addressable reality. But operational science must proceed on the basis of best-thus-far tentative knowledge. The human epistemological problem is quite real. But we cannot allow it to paralyze scientific inquiry. If it is true that we cannot know anything for certain, then we have all the more reason to proceed on the basis of the greatest "plausibility of belief" [15-19]. If human mental constructions cannot be equated with objective reality, we are all the more justified in pursuing the greatest likelihood of correspondence of our knowledge to the object of that knowledge--presumed ontological being itself. Can we prove that objectivity exists outside of our minds? No. Does that establish that objectivity does not exist outside of our minds? No again. Science makes its best progress based on the axioms that 1) an objective reality independent of our minds does exist, and 2) scientists' collective knowledge can progressively correspond to that objective reality. The human epistemological problem is kept in its proper place through a) double-blind studies, b) groups of independent investigators all repeating the same experiment, c) prediction fulfillments, and d) the application of pristine logic (taking linguistic fuzziness into account), and e) the competition of various human ideas for best correspondence to repeated independent observations. >> >> Combinatorial imaginings and hypothetical scenarios can be endlessly argued simply on the grounds that they are theoretically possible. But there is a point beyond which arguing the plausibility of an absurdly low probability becomes operationally counterproductive. That point can actually be quantified for universal application to all fields of science, not just astrobiology. Quantification of a UPM and application of the UPP inequality test to that specific UPM provides for definitive, unequivocal falsification of scientifically unhelpful and functionally useless hypotheses. When the UPP is violated, declaring falsification of that highly implausible notion is just as justified as the firm commitment we make to any mathematical axiom or physical "law" of motion. >> >> To be able to definitively falsify ridiculously implausible hypotheses, we need first a Universal Plausibility Metric (UPM) to assign a numerical plausibility value to each proposed hypothetical scenario. Second, a Universal Plausibility Principle (UPP) inequality is needed as plausibility bound of this measurement for falsification evaluation. We need a cut-off point beyond which no extremely low probability scenario can be considered a "scientifically respectable" possibility. What is needed more than a probability bound is a plausibility bound. Any "possibility" that exceeds the ability of its probabilistic resources to generate should immediately be considered a "functional non possibility," and therefore an implausible scenario. While it may not be a theoretically absolute impossibility, if it exceeds its probabilistic resources, it is a gross understatement to declare that such a proposed scenario is simply not worth the expenditure of serious scientific consideration, pursuit, and resources. . . . Since approximately 1017 seconds have elapsed since the Big Bang, we factor that total time into the following calculations of quantum perspective probabilistic resource measures. Note that the difference between the age of the earth and the age of the cosmos is only a factor of 3. A factor of 3 is rather negligible at the high order of magnitude of 1017 seconds since the Big Bang (versus age of the earth). Thus, 1017 seconds is used for all three astronomical subsets: [universe 10^140 galaxy 10^127 solar system 10^117 earth 10^102] These above limits of probabilistic resources exist within the only known universe that we can repeatedly observe--the only universe that is scientifically addressable. Wild metaphysical claims of an infinite number of cosmoses may be fine for cosmological imagination, religious belief, or superstition. But such conjecturing has no place in hard science. Such claims cannot be empirically investigated, and they certainly cannot be falsified. They violate Ockham's (Occam's) Razor [40]. No prediction fulfillments are realizable. They are therefore nothing more than blind beliefs that are totally inappropriate in peer-reviewed scientific literature. Such cosmological conjectures are far closer to metaphysical or philosophic enterprises than they are to bench science. From a more classical perspective at the level of ordinary molecular/chemical reactions, we will again provide metrics first for the entire universe (u) followed by three astronomical subsets, our galaxy (g), our solar system (s) and earth (e). The classical molecular/chemical perspective makes two primary changes from the quantum perspective. With the classical perspective, the number of atoms rather than the number of protons, neutrons and electrons is used. In addition, the total number of classical chemical reactions that could have taken place since the Big Bang is used rather than transitions related to cubic light-Planck's. The shortest time any transition requires before a chemical reaction can take place is 10 femtoseconds [41-46]. A femtosecond is 10-15 seconds. Complete chemical reactions, however, rarely take place faster than the picosecond range (10-12 secs). Most biochemical reactions, even with highly sophisticated enzymatic catalysis, take place no faster than the nano (10-9) and usually the micro (10-6) range. To be exceedingly generous (perhaps overly permissive of the capabilities of the chance hypothesis), we shall use 100 femtoseconds as the shortest chemical reaction time. 100 femtoseconds is 10-13 seconds. Thus 1013 simple and fastest chemical reactions could conceivably take place per second in the best of theoretical pipe-dream scenarios. The four c?A measures are as follows: [universe: 10^106 galaxy 10^96 solar system 10^85 earth 10^70] >> ___________ The devastating contrast to the line of well chance is enough talking points above, is illuminating. KFkairosfocus
June 30, 2013
June
06
Jun
30
30
2013
04:46 AM
4
04
46
AM
PDT
PS: Onlookers should find Abel on the universal plausibility bound, here, helpful and a tonic in the face of the sort of chance posturing we see above. KFkairosfocus
June 30, 2013
June
06
Jun
30
30
2013
04:33 AM
4
04
33
AM
PDT
The Darwinists are only interested in making the point that it is possible to flip 500 coins and get heads, and that it is possible for Darwinian processes to generate what we see in biology. Yes, it is all possible. It is also possible that the road in front of your car, via massive happenstance quantum fluctuation, turn into purple taffee. It's not impossible; there is no law of physics that would prevent it. It's possible that your neighbor won 15 lotteries in a row by chance. It's possible that many different parts of a finely tuned machine were generated by chance, for other reasons, for other uses, and somehow by chance became fitted together over time, each step selectably advantageous, until an entirely new machine that does something entirely different is built, functions, and provides an advantage. There is no physical law that prevents such things from occurring, and for those desperate to cling to a particular worldview, bare possibility is all that is necessary to ignore the blatantly obvious.William J Murray
June 30, 2013
June
06
Jun
30
30
2013
04:22 AM
4
04
22
AM
PDT
Dr Liddle, with all due respect, the other side to that story, and a material part of the OP above (cf. first sentence, also here), is that you also operate an objecting blog in which you are currently hosting slander by invidious association with Nazism, and where you in a headlined article blandly denied same in the teeth of ample opportunity to know better and do better. In addition, you have tried to defend the slander, now that it is undeniable. Olive branch rhetoric, in that context, rings decidedly hollow when the false accusations and insinuations you have harboured and enabled continue to do their fell work. Frankly, that comes across much as the being offended at seeing exposes of what the slave trade was actually like, while sipping slave produced sweeteners in tea and eating same in baked goodies. There is no moral equivalency here that you can "moderate" you are a part of the problem. Kindly face it and fix it. KFkairosfocus
June 30, 2013
June
06
Jun
30
30
2013
04:21 AM
4
04
21
AM
PDT
Jerad: This is amazing, tellingly revealing:
106: any other particular outcome has the same probability. And obviously classes of outcomes have a greater probability of being ‘hit’ . . . . you keep saying it’s not a sensible explanation for the event and want to skip to design. 107: Chance happens. And requires no special pleading or invocation of an unknown, undefined, unobserved agent.
With all due respect, it is quite evident from the just above that you are simply looking for straws to clutch at in hopes they will save your a priori exclusion of reasonable explanatory possibilities from sinking. The matter is quite simple save to those determined not to see it. Some "lotteries" are practically speaking unwinnable on blind chance, and this is one of them. Yes, if we toss coins, it must have some one outcome or another, where any one outcome is improbable. What is NOT improbable -- it is the overwhelming bulk of the distribution -- is that the sheer statistical weight of the dominant cluster will tell: a near 250H:250T distribution in no particular special order such as HTHT . . . or ASCII code etc. It is no surprise to see such an expected result, but we should be highly suspicious if there is a possibility of design and we see the sort of deeply isolated outcome from one of the special zones listed and mentioned above. A reasonable person would acknowledge that, but it is a good test of cognitive bias on this matter that there will be bitter ender resistance to anything that smacks of evidence pointing where they would not go. As for the remark from 107, you have in effect decided to do one of two things: (a) rule out inferences to not- directly- observed entities inferred on inference to best explanation on signs (including circumstantial evidence in law), or (b) you are indulging in selective hyperskepticism. Since I have no doubt that you believe in electrons, the general picture of the deep past in biology, geology and cosmology commonly presented as scientific, and the like, it is patent that the problem is B. Where it does not suit you, you have no intention to accept any cumulative case that points where you would not go. To such, I simply repeat, FSCO/I is a well tested -- billions of cases -- and empirically reliable sign of design. As with the second law of thermodynamics, it is now the objector who carries the burden to show cause by way of empirically observed counter example. The toy case being analysed in this thread and elsewhere is actually supportive, showing through a concrete example, why the generalisation that we can infer on sign from FSCO/I to design as best causal explanation works. Instead of the twistabout cited, the wiser stance is that the evidence of say digital code and organised execution machinery in the living cell points to design as best explanation. Of course, you seem to be hinting at the false and loaded strawman dichotomy: natural vs supernatural cause. This is false (as by now you should long since know), the inference is to causal process, not to specific agent responsible. A better dichotomy is natural causal factors working by blind chance and or mechanical necessity vs the ART-ificial, leaving characteristic traces. This has been on the table since at least Plato in The Laws Bk X, where he contrasted accident and necessity of nature with art. In short, that TWEREDUN comes before and is distinct from WHODUNIT. In the case of the world of cell based life, as has been repeatedly pointed out, in principle a molecular nanotech lab some generations beyond Venter et al would be adequate. When we turn to the fine tuned nature of the observed cosmos that sets up a venue in which C-chemistry, aqueous medium, cell based life on terrestrial planets is possible, that points to design by an entity capable of building a cosmos, one set up for cell based life. The unwillingness to acknowledge the actual case being made for design but to instead play at strawman games, is further revealing of the underlying ideological mindset. As for your label and dismiss tactic on alleged cultural fear mongering, I simply retort that fools rush in where angels fear to tread. That is, we had better pay serious attention to the historically known vulnerabilities of democratic self-government or we will end up enabling wickedness by making the same blunders over and over. In this case, in context you are enabling slander -- something that is linked in the very first sentence of the OP. I hope you will at least ponder that. Good day KFkairosfocus
June 30, 2013
June
06
Jun
30
30
2013
04:11 AM
4
04
11
AM
PDT
bpragmatic
This forum is apparently funded by the Discovery Institute. That seems to be a common complaint by a lot of “neo-darwinist” people commenting here. That it is getting funding from a “right winged” organization, whatever that is. And it is “polically motivated”.
Well, it's not my complaint. I don't think it's true, is it? I think it's run by Barry and funded by the ads. I could be wrong. It wouldn't bother me. I think it would be good to have a publically accessible forum run by the DI.
I have got to be honest. I rarely can read through all of your posts. From my perspective, that is admittedly on the side of some sort of puposeful design perspective, it seems you will often change or confuse the spirit of the subject at hand. Then interject information, that may indeed, have logical grounding in some form or another, but seems to detract from the obvious course and or intent of the original discussion.
That's probably true. What frustrates me about a lot of ID vs Evolution discussions is that people talk past each other, and misunderstand each other's positions, or make assumptions that, in my view, beg the very question at issue. But I can see how that must look like irrelevance at time - I guess from my PoV, it's the fact that my point is regarded as "irrelevant" that is the problem!
You also project what seems to me, to be a certain brand of arrogance that couches itself in a kind of “holier than thou” type of expressive motif. As if to say, “you ignorant people, I know a lot more that you do. In fact I know enough to demonstrate that you are wrong and I am right”.
Well, it's not intentional, but I guess arrogance never is. I will try harder to make it clear that I am not trying to argue from authority, but to explain (and argue for!) my position. Admittedly, these are just my impressions, and may not be accurate.
So my impressions lead me to other questions. What is your background in the chemical sciences? Chemistry, bio-chemistry, organic chemistry. Do you have a background in OOL research? What are your credemtials when claiming to be able to assess probabilities concerning, what one might describe as, the “science” (philosophy) of the “evolution” of self-replicating molecules. How can you demostrate that, even given such a precursor, this can lead to what we observe today in living organisms, including human life and conciousness? Demonstrate how close we are to being able to make any kind of a correlation, scientifically, between a self-replicating molecule and living systems existing today.
I have a scientific training, including training and expertise in probability and statistics. I teach quantitative methodology at post-graduate level. My background is in systems neuroscience, not chemistry. I do not do OoL research. I do not think that it is possible to demonstrate that a Designer was not required to produce Life and consciousness. I do think it is possible to uncover mechanisms by which it might have done. My own hunch is that if there is a Designer, the Designer brought into existence a world in which conscious life would evolve through its own laws, and would therefore not be detectable from within that world. But I do not rule out an interventionist Designer. I simply see no need to posit one. I hope that makes my position clearer :) Cheers LizzieElizabeth B Liddle
June 30, 2013
June
06
Jun
30
30
2013
04:10 AM
4
04
10
AM
PDT
Eric:
So statements like Elizabeth’s @64 are simply wrong. The question is not whether such a process, with all its assumptions, can produce something. Everyone knows it can.
I think my statement is correct, Eric. We did not know, prior to Avida, that IC structures could evolve, or evolve by deeply IC pathways. Behe's case was that such structures could not in principle evolve, not that they could not evolve in biology. Hence his famous mousetrap analogy. His claim was that if something could not function with any of its parts missing, it could not evolve by Darwinian means, because it would require non-selectable precursors. This claim, he later conceded, is not in fact true, because precursors can selected for a different reason; and precursors can also be more complex rather than less (e.g. an arch). So co-option and scaffolding, respectively, are arguments against Behe's original case. However, he then changed his definition of IC to refer to a pathway rather than a function, and said that a function could not evolved if the necessary precursor pathways involved many non-selectable (non-advantageous) steps - and defined IC pathways of Degree N, where N is the number of non-selectable steps. AVIDA showed that both IC structures could evolve by Darwinian mechanisms, and that structures could evolve via deeply IC pathways, including quite severelydeleteriousprecursors. Thus Behe's principle was falsified by AVIDA. However:
The question is whether such a process exists in the real world. No genetic algorithm has answered that question, and until they simulate, with at least some level of fidelity, real-world processes, the entire effort is an exercise in irrelevance.
That is a quite separate question - a different set of goalposts. It may well be true that some features observed in nature could not have evolved. But what AVIDA showed is that we cannot simply look at a feature, observe that it is IC or that the precursor pathway must have been deeply IC, and conclude it could not have evolved. AVIDA demonstrated that Behe's criteria don't work. That doesn't mean that there are no such criteria. It's just that you can't base the ID case on Behe's IC.
Notably, with the oft-cited Avida study (in Nature, if memory serves), the authors acknowledged that if the program required a couple of parts to come along simultaneously that their digital organisms never “evolved” the final goal. That was precisely Behe’s point. He argues there is good reason to believe that — in reality, not in silico — there are molecular machines that require multiple parts to come along at once and that such machines are not amenable to a Darwinian process.
Could you provide a direct quotation, Eric? I think you may have misread or misremembered. I agree that it was precisely Behe's point. And it was precisely that point that I understood as being refuted. And I have looked at the paper very closely, and indeed, played with AVIDA. The most difficult-to-evolve function, "equ", required many parts to be in place simultaneously to work. Obviously their is no requirement that they "come along" simultaneously - the point is that there may be no advantage to any one alone, so no reason for it to hang around once it is there. In other words "equ" is IC by Behe's mousetrap definition - it only works if all the components are in place. If any one is missing, there is no function. Furthermore, many of those parts, and combinations of parts, are at best non-advantageous, and at worst actually deleterious. In all the runs I have seen, "equ" only evolved subsequent to a mutation that resulted in a steep drop in fitness. In other words, not only was it IC, it was only evolvable in by a pathway that was not only deeply IC but a pathway that actually involved a substantially deleterious step. It should also be noted that the function (performing the logic function "equ") could be achieved in ways - there was no single "solution", just as in life, what is (or is postulated to be) selected is not a particular design, but a solution that works. So I think you are mistaken here, Eric. Of course AVIDA does not prove that certain biological features evolved. What it does show is that the Behe's IC argument is not a good argument against the evolution of IC features or evolution via IC pathways.Elizabeth B Liddle
June 30, 2013
June
06
Jun
30
30
2013
03:51 AM
3
03
51
AM
PDT
Every possible sequence of 500 Hs and Ts is equally likely. We all agree. The probability of getting any particular sequence is 1/2^500. We all agree. Flip a coin 500 times, you will get one of those sequences that had a 1 in 2^500 chance of coming up. A seemingly impossible chance occurrence. And yet . . . it happened. It happens every time you flip a fair coin 500 times. You get an incredibly unlikely outcome. Every time. If you 'measure' the possible outcomes in some way, say the number of heads in the sequence, then you're most likely to get a result between +/- 3 standard deviations of the 'norm'. Of course. If you use a different 'measure' then you get a different 'norm'. Your measure could be Shannon information. What's the norm then? What's the standard deviation? Your measure could be the number of HHs you get. Your measure could be the number of HTHs you get. Your measure could be the longest unbroken sequence of Hs you get. But no matter what outcome you get under whatever measure you chose each possible outcome is equally likely. And while our pattern seeking brains might find one or another sequence disturbing or noteworthy they are all the same mathematically. There is no need of a design inference once you're sure there is no bias in the system. Chance happens. And requires no special pleading or invocation of an unknown, undefined, unobserved agent.Jerad
June 30, 2013
June
06
Jun
30
30
2013
12:28 AM
12
12
28
AM
PDT
And in our case the calculable probability of 500 H is 1 in 3.27 * 10^150, which is practically zero, being by your calc 22 SD away from the mean of a sharply peaked distribution. The formal probability is tantamount to utter implausibility of blind chance as a reasonable explanation of seeing 500 H is a tray.
And any other particular outcome has the same probability. And obviously classes of outcomes have a greater probability of being 'hit'.
Why then is there such a fixation on the logically possible but physically, sampling principles implausible case?
Because you keep saying it's not a sensible explanation for the event and want to skip to design.
Because of a determination never to concede that in cases that objectors to design theory wish to dismiss, the presence of FSCO/I is a reliable sign of design as cause. This translates into an unwillingness to concede the possibility of a designer at relevant points.
And I thought you were supposed to exhaust all other possible explanations first. Like chance. Which you've admitted is possible. I'll not address your cultural fear mongering.Jerad
June 29, 2013
June
06
Jun
29
29
2013
11:49 PM
11
11
49
PM
PDT
KF,
PS: I see onward attempts to divert on split brains...
No, KF. I am not trying to divert the thread. I invited you to comment on another thread, but you insist on responding here, even when talking about brains and souls!
FAIR WARNING: I will come down hard on further thread diversion efforts. I have already warned KS on thread diversion, and see he is insistent on hiding threadjacking attempts under euphemisms.
Are you warming up "Mr. Leathers? Get over yourself, KF. THAT'S IT. Onlookers, a reasonable comment was twisted by the foul into vile slander in fever swamp sites. KS continues his thread jacking. He is asked to leave this thread and others I own. He was patently aware that he does not come back to UD under any presumption of innocence. His repeated misbehaviour here goes beyond the pale and he too is out. KFkeiths
June 29, 2013
June
06
Jun
29
29
2013
11:45 PM
11
11
45
PM
PDT
PS: I see onward attempts to divert on split brains (already addressed here at UD recently -- the interpretation being pushed is strained amd exaggerated, IIRC, under normal circumstances the people in question function in unified ways, i.e. we see here a processing problem . . . ) and the like. I simply point out that this is not the thread for such a discussion and that for me I have long since addressed mind-brain issues on the Smith, two-tier controller model here on in context. There is nothing in this latest that cannot be accounted for on confusion through situational malfunction of the I/O in the loop processor. In addition, I find that evolutionary materialism advocates routinely duck the force of the fatal self referential incoherence in the heart of their system, and the linked problem of no worldview foundation IS capable of bearing the weight of OUGHT. FAIR WARNING: I will come down hard on further thread diversion efforts. I have already warned KS on thread diversion, and see he is insistent on hiding threadjacking attempts under euphemisms. Sorry, wasn't born yesterday, I have already answered the wider issue as linked, and I have quite enough on my hands in the real world situations I face. If KS et al are unwilling to face the self referential absurdity and amorality of their favoured view that is their problem, not mine -- save insofar as that opens the door of invitation to nihilists. And so far as I can see the Smith architecture is a sufficiently useful framework that gives room for all I need.kairosfocus
June 29, 2013
June
06
Jun
29
29
2013
11:12 PM
11
11
12
PM
PDT
SC: Indeed, we do not agree 100% on any number of issues. This goes to show that our common status as design thinkers is not an indoctrinated, partyline position. I am aware that you favour the expectations approach. I favour the partition of the config space approach, and the instructive metaphor of searching for a needle in a haystack. I am sure you hear the echoes of stat mech in that. What KS, Jerad and others seem fixated on is that any state is formally possible on blind search multiplied by the point that under the circumstances any one state is as improbable as any other. So, they wish to suggest or insinuate that ho hum someone must win the lottery and we should have no surprise that bang it is the 500 H's state. Rubbish. The pivotal point is that lotteries are DESIGNED to be won, by making the likelihood of success commensurate with the search resources (ticket sales) available. By contrast, the 500-coin case config space of 2^500 ~ 3.27 * 10^150 possibilities so greatly exceeds the number of search opportunities in our practical universe for atomic-level interactions that the comparison is to a single straw sized sample being blindly drawn from a cubical haystack 1,000 Light Years across, comparably thick as our galaxy. If such were superposed on our galactic neighbourhood, since star systems are on average several LY apart, the overwhelming bulk would be straw. Even under circumstances like that, with all but certainty, a blind search of such scope with all but certainty, i.e. with high reliability tantamount to practical certainty, would pick up only straw. And in our case the calculable probability of 500 H is 1 in 3.27 * 10^150, which is practically zero, being by your calc 22 SD away from the mean of a sharply peaked distribution. The formal probability is tantamount to utter implausibility of blind chance as a reasonable explanation of seeing 500 H is a tray. The obvious and highly plausible alternative causal inference is choice contingency, not chance. One backed up by a great many examples on this and other cases of FSCO/I. The highly reliable inductive inference on seeing a case that is like this of an event e from one of the utterly unrepresentative special zones zi in W, on a sample sj too small to make blind chance a plausible explanation is that something other than chance has been at work, namely choice. Indeed, if we were to stipulate that Dr Liddle's coin string algorithm were extended to 500 coins and that the rightmost is a head, we would see this as a case where by intelligently directed choice, we transform an initial perhaps at-random config into all H's. In short, we have yet another case on how the only empirically warranted, analytically plausible explanation for FSCO/I is design. That is, FSCO/I is a highly reliable sign of choice contingency as cause. Why then is there such a fixation on the logically possible but physically, sampling principles implausible case? Because of a determination never to concede that in cases that objectors to design theory wish to dismiss, the presence of FSCO/I is a reliable sign of design as cause. This translates into an unwillingness to concede the possibility of a designer at relevant points. Indeed, into a refusal to accept in this case an otherwise uncontroversial principle of investigations in historical and particular origins science. Namely, that on seeing traces from the unobserved past T = {t1, t2, . . . tn}, one compares to relevant candidate causal forces and circumstances in the present {c1, c2 . . . cm}, and observes that if a certain case ck best produces effects {ek1, ek2, . . . ekr} such that there is a high and materially superior correlation between {t1, t2, . . . tn}, and {ek1, ek2, . . . ekr}, then ck is the best causal explanation of T. That is, I have here cited the Newtonian uniformity principle that was (imperfectly) applied by Lyell, Darwin and others. The refusal to accept the same logic as evidence when where it points -- choice contingency -- does not sit well with the materialist a prioris commonly imposed on empirical investigations of the past of origins plainly manifests the sort of ideologically driven question begging selective hyperskepticism that Lewontin as cited in the OP exemplifies. In short, the refusal to be led by evidence and analysis in the toy case in view reveals for one and all to see, the underlying materialist or fellow traveller ideology wrapped in a lab coat. It is in that context that there is an attempt to pretend that the error is on our part, and this is too often multiplied by ptojection of alleged theistic, theocratic motivations that are cast in the same light as Nazism. Which is ad hominem and well poisoning leading to demonisation and scapegoating. In fact, it is a declaration of open season, as can be seen in the repeated misbehaviour of AF above, who chose to make false insinuations of insanity on my part. Somehow, he did not seem to want to recognise that when his fellow TSZ denizen chose to drag in an unrelated topic and pretend that there are no principled reasons for questioning the ongoing homosexualisation of our civilisation, pry trying to push me in the same boat as Nazis, the lines of incivility and slander were passed. Just so, the case where Dr Liddle proceeded to headline a false assertion that her blog was not harbouring such slander -- in the teeth of web snapshots, citations and links -- shows enabling behaviour for incivility. And the proper response to such is to draw the lesson from tours of shame on similar cases of established incivility. Of course, I do not expect ideologues unwilling to concede the significance of the 500 H's exercise to acknowledge anything else that does not sit well with their agendas, but we can allow the public looking on to see what is going on. And it is obvious that it is fear of exposure that is motivating some of the tactics in the thread and elsewhere. So, the correct response is to highlight what is going on, hence the three videos embedded above that the objectors evidently are unable to cogently answer when they may be seen in concert. (When Expelled could be treated in isolation it was one thing, but when right next to it we have Schaeffer's expose -- confirmed to be an all too accurate prediction of what has played out since 1980 -- of the worldview roots and Weikart's historical tracing of antecedents, that's another story.) It is high time to wake up and act. Maybe at least somewhat of the worst consequences of the cultural continental divide we have allowed to drive a wdge across our civilisation can just possibly be averted. IF, some on the other side are able to wake up to the reality of the sort of nihilism they are beginning to enable, before it is too late. And that is why I have graphically highlighted reminders of the degree of depravity nihilists feeling a cultural license to do as they please can descend into. The time to avert such horrors is before they happen, while they seem to be so remote as to be ridiculous. Surely, a "compromise" can be struck? It turns out that, predictably, compromises with sufficiently machiavelian nihilists will be used by them as the thin edge opening for a wedge to push through their ruthless agendas, especially if they think they can stereotype, smear, marginalise and demonise likely centres of objection. Hitler, for instance came to power as a part of a compromise deal, with the notion that with the limits placed on the Nazis, there was little to fear. One Reichstag fire later, that fell apart. (And yes, I accept that that was a black swan event where a half mad dutch youth set fire to it for reasons that can make no sense. But Hitler and cronies were experts in the arts of not letting a crisis go to waste, and were able to set up scapegoats and panic culture and leaders alike that a Bolshevik coup was in prospect -- the twist-about, turn-speech false accusation in a classic case. On the strength of that panic, Hitler was able to gain the Nietzsahean superman political saviour status and get practically absolute powers: there was a coup indeed, only, by the National Socialist [yes, socialist] German Workers Party. The rest is sad and bloody history.) Resemblance to ever so many possibilities and trends in our day is no coincidence. so, let me close by warning based on Niemoller's famous poetic summary of the slice at a time scapegoating tactic and how it led Germany down the road to Hell:
First they came for the communists, and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a communist. Then they came for the socialists, and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a socialist. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a trade unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a Jew. Then they came for the Catholics, and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a Catholic. Then they came for me, and there was no one left to speak for me.
We have been warned. The issue is, will we learn a lesson from Machiavelli? Yes, paraphrasing some opening remarks in The Prince: political disorders are like hectic fever. At the first, hard to diagnose and easy to cure, By the time, however, when the course of the disease is obvious to all, it is far too late to cure. He of course meant it as a part of his justification for a power elite to use influence and power bases to manipulate and dominate the generally dumb public of sheeple. We need to invert it by creating a widespread, growing awareness of what is going on and a critical mass of reformers, before it becomes utterly too late. (And already, the price to be paid will be stiff. We are already being falsely scapegoated as Nazis.) This is a time we need genuine shepherds, not wolves in shepherds' clothing. KFkairosfocus
June 29, 2013
June
06
Jun
29
29
2013
11:01 PM
11
11
01
PM
PDT
47 bpragmaticJune 28, 2013 at 8:56 pm E. Liddle, I am really curious. Somewhere along the line, I think that it was said that you are, or were, a “brain surgeon”? I was wondering how it is you are spending so much time on your the blogs championing the causes of a self described ” atheist materialist Darwinist”. Unless maybe you are retired? Are you getting paid for your involvement? If so, I can’t help but wonder where the money is coming from. Where is it coming from, if that is the case? This forum is apparently funded by the Discovery Institute. That seems to be a common complaint by a lot of “neo-darwinist” people commenting here. That it is getting funding from a “right winged” organization, whatever that is. And it is “polically motivated”. I have got to be honest. I rarely can read through all of your posts. From my perspective, that is admittedly on the side of some sort of puposeful design perspective, it seems you will often change or confuse the spirit of the subject at hand. Then interject information, that may indeed, have logical grounding in some form or another, but seems to detract from the obvious course and or intent of the original discussion. You also project what seems to me, to be a certain brand of arrogance that couches itself in a kind of “holier than thou” type of expressive motif. As if to say, “you ignorant people, I know a lot more that you do. In fact I know enough to demonstrate that you are wrong and I am right”. Admittedly, these are just my impressions, and may not be accurate. So my impressions lead me to other questions. What is your background in the chemical sciences? Chemistry, bio-chemistry, organic chemistry. Do you have a background in OOL research? What are your credemtials when claiming to be able to assess probabilities concerning, what one might describe as, the “science” (philosophy) of the “evolution” of self-replicating molecules. How can you demostrate that, even given such a precursor, this can lead to what we observe today in living organisms, including human life and conciousness? Demonstrate how close we are to being able to make any kind of a correlation, scientifically, between a self-replicating molecule and living systems existing today. Your response: "bpragmatic: I am really curious. Somewhere along the line, I think that it was said that you are, or were, a “brain surgeon”? I was wondering how it is you are spending so much time on your the blogs championing the causes of a self described ” atheist materialist Darwinist”. Unless maybe you are retired? Are you getting paid for your involvement? If so, I can’t help but wonder where the money is coming from. Where is it coming from, if that is the case? I am not a brain surgeon, bpragmatic. I am a cognitive neuroscientist. And I am not championing any cause. I like discussing things, and I’m interested in why people think the things they do and whether their arguments make sense. And if you want to know where I get the time, I’d invite you to look my pile of unwashed laundry and my kitchen sink. But it’s not a pretty sight". Elizabeth, thanks for clarifying that. However, am still interested answers to the rest of the questions. Knowing you are able to understand those. And looking forward to your response.bpragmatic
June 29, 2013
June
06
Jun
29
29
2013
10:04 PM
10
10
04
PM
PDT
KF:
You are being rude and demanding, in a context where it is obvious that I have a real life living which has its own demands.
I haven't demanded anything. I've invited you to comment on that thread:
KF, Would you like to try your hand at defending the concept of the immaterial soul? BA77 and Joe aren’t doing so well at it. I’m sure they would appreciate some help.
And:
I’m inviting you to join the other thread, where bornagain77 and Joe are trying unsuccessfully to defend the notion of an immaterial soul against the evidence from observations of split-brain patients.
You first claimed that you weren't interested, and now you claim to be too busy. I don't believe you, and I doubt the onlookers do, either. How plausible is it that the extraordinarily verbose KF doesn't have time to participate in a thread?
In addition, you have ignored, the link I have pointed you to.
I followed the link, but there's nothing there about split-brain patients. You haven't addressed the issue.
I happened by and saw your behaviour, marginally worse than Jerad’s. So the taking of time to comment.
Because otherwise you're much too busy to comment at UD, right? :D Will you still be too busy tomorrow? I can wait until Monday, if that's more convenient. As I said:
It’s amazing to me that so many people here at UD believe in the immaterial soul, yet none of you can defend it against the split-brain evidence. Doesn’t that bother you?
keiths
June 29, 2013
June
06
Jun
29
29
2013
05:12 PM
5
05
12
PM
PDT
KS: You are being rude and demanding, in a context where it is obvious that I have a real life living which has its own demands. In addition, you have ignored, the link I have pointed you to. I happened by and saw your behaviour, marginally worse than Jerad's. So the taking of time to comment. KF PS: Jerad, if you do not know about the mistaken silence of Jews in the face of propaganda in the 1930's, you need to first check out why there is an ADL and then ask yourself if you know enough to be seriously talking in this thread. I have no more time.kairosfocus
June 29, 2013
June
06
Jun
29
29
2013
04:22 PM
4
04
22
PM
PDT
Meaning what exactly?
This: https://uncommondescent.com/intelligent-design/of-coin-tosses-expectation-materialistic-question-begging-and-forfeit-of-credibility-by-materialists/#comment-460082scordova
June 29, 2013
June
06
Jun
29
29
2013
04:01 PM
4
04
01
PM
PDT
I agree with the conclusion of improbability and suggested it also better framed in terms of expectation and wagering.
Meaning what exactly?
The other stuff I have nothing to say. I support Kairos Focus speaking his mind. As far as it hurting my reputation, I’d glady go down with KF as my brother in disrepute even if I don’t agree with what he says.
Lets see what everyone else thinks then. Since you have nothing to say about it.Jerad
June 29, 2013
June
06
Jun
29
29
2013
03:55 PM
3
03
55
PM
PDT
Are you in support of what KF posts or not?
Not always. You can see we oppose each other on occasion. As far as the content of this thread, the coin stuff pertains to me. I agree with the conclusion of improbability and suggested it also better framed in terms of expectation and wagering. The other stuff I have nothing to say. I support Kairos Focus speaking his mind. As far as it hurting my reputation, I'd glady go down with KF as my brother in disrepute even if I don't agree with what he says.scordova
June 29, 2013
June
06
Jun
29
29
2013
03:38 PM
3
03
38
PM
PDT
1 2 3 4 6

Leave a Reply