Uncommon Descent Serving The Intelligent Design Community

Of coin-tosses, expectation, materialistic question-begging and forfeit of credibility by materialists

Share
Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Flipboard
Print
Email

Yesterday, I crossed a Rubicon, for cause, on seeing the refusal to stop from enabling denial and correct and deal with slander on the part of even the most genteel of the current wave of critics.

It is time to face what we are dealing with squarely: ideologues on the attack.  (Now, in a wave of TSZ denizens back here at UD and hoping to swarm down, twist into pretzels, ridicule and dismiss the basic case for design.)

coin-flip
Flipping a coin . . . is it fair? (Cr: Making Near Future Predictions, fair use)

Sal C has been the most prolific recent contributor at UD, and a pivotal case he has put forth is the discovery of a box of five hundred coins, all heads.

What is the best explanation?

The talking point gymnastics to avoid the obvious conclusion that have been going on for a while now, have been sadly instructive on the mindset of the committed ideological materialist and that of his or her fellow travellers.

(For those who came in 30 years or so late, “fellow travellers” is a term of art that described those who made common cause with the outright Marxists, on one argument or motive or another. I will not cite Lenin’s less polite term for such.  The term, fellow traveller, is of obviously broader applicability and relevance today.)

Now, I intervened just now in a thread that further follows up on the coin tossing exercise and wish to headline the comment:

_____________

>> I observe:

NR, at 5: >> Biological organisms do not look designed >>

The above clip and the wider thread provide a good example of the sort of polarisation and refusal to examine matters squarely on the merits that too often characterises objectors to design theory.

coin_prob_percent
A plot of typical patterns of coin tossing, showing the overwhelming trend for the average percent of H’s to move to the mean, as a percentage even as the absolute difference between H and T will diverge across time.  (Credit: problemgambling.ca, fair use)

In the case of coin tossing, all heads, all tails, alternating H and T, etc. are all obvious patterns that are simply describable (i.e. without in effect quoting the strings). Such patterns can be assigned a set of special zones, Z = {z1, z2, z3 . . . zn} of one or more outcomes, in the space of possibilities, W.

Thus is effected a partition of the configuration space.

It is quite obvious that |W| >> |Z|, overwhelmingly so; let us symbolise this |W| >> . . . > |Z|.

Now, we put forth the Bernoulli-Laplace indifference assumption that is relevant here through the stipulation of a fair coin. (We can examine symmetry etc of a coin, or do frequency tests to see that such will for practical purposes be close enough. It is not hard to see that unless a coin is outrageously biased, the assumption is reasonable. [BTW, this implies that it is formally possible that if a fair coin is tossed 500 times, it is logically possible that it will be all heads. But that is not the pivotal point.])

When we do an exercise of tossing, we are in fact doing a sample of W, in which the partition that a given outcome, si in S [the set of possible samples], comes from, will be dominated by relative statistical weight. S is of course such that |S| >> . . . > |W|. That is, there are far more ways to sample from W in a string of actual samples s1, s2, . . . sn, than there are number of configs in W.

(This is where the Marks-Dembski search for a search challenge, S4S, comes in. Sampling the samplings can be a bigger task than sampling the set of possibilities.)

Where, now, we have a needle in haystack problem that on the gamut of the solar system [our practical universe for chemical level atomic interactions], the number of samples that is possible as an actual exercise is overwhelmingly smaller than S, and indeed than W.

Under these circumstances, we take a sample si, 500 tosses.

The balance of the partitions is such that by all but certainty, we will find a cluster of H & T in no particular order, close to 250 H: 250 T. The farther away one gets from that balance, the less likely it will be, through the sharp peaked-ness of the binomial distribution of fair coin tosses.

Under these circumstances, we have no good reason to expect to see a special pattern like 500 H, etc. Indeed, such a unique and highly noticeable config will predictably — with rather high reliability — not be observed once on the gamut of the observed solar system, even were the solar system dedicated to doing nothing but tossing coins for its lifespan.

That is chance manifest in coin tossing is not a plausible account for 500 H, or the equivalent, a line of 500 coins in a tray all H’s.

However, if we were now to come upon a tray with 500 coins, all H’s, we can very plausibly account for it on a known, empirically grounded causal pattern: intelligent designers exist and have been known to set highly contingent systems to special values suited to their purposes.

Indeed, such are the only empirically warranted sources.

Where, for instance we are just such intelligences.

So, the reasonable person coming on a tray of 500 coins in a row, all H, will infer that per best empirically warranted explanation, design is the credible cause. (And that person will infer the same if a coin tossing exercises presented as fair coin tossing, does the equivalent. We can reliably know that design is involved without knowing the mechanism.)

Nor does this change if the discoverer did not see the event happening. That is, from a highly contingent outcome that does not fit chance very well but does fit design well, one may properly infer design as explanation.

Indeed, that pattern of a specific, recognisable pattern utterly unlikely by chance but by no means inherently unlikely to the point of dismissal by design, is a plausible sign of design as best causal explanation.

The same would obtain if instead of 500 H etc, we discovered that the coins were in a pattern that spelled out, using ASCII code, remarks in English or object code for a computer, etc. In this case, the pattern is recognised as a functionally specific, complex one.

Why then, do we see such violent opposition to inferring design on FSCO/I etc in non-toy cases?

Obviously, because objectors are making or are implying the a priori stipulation (often unacknowledged, sometimes unrecognised) that it is practically certain that no designer is POSSIBLE at the point in question.

For under such a circumstance, chance is the only reasonable candidate left to account for high contingency. (Mechanical necessity does not lead to high contingency.)

So, we see why there is a strong appearance of design, and we see why there is a reluctance or even violently hostile refusal to accept that that appearance can indeed be a good reason to accept that on the inductively reliable sign FSCO/I and related analysis, design is the best causal explanation.

In short, we are back to the problem of materialist ideology dressed up in a lab coat.

I think the time has more than come to expose that, and to highlight the problems with a priori materialism as a worldview, whether it is dressed up in a lab coat or not.

We can start with Haldane’s challenge:

“It seems to me immensely unlikely that mind is a mere by-product of matter. For if my mental processes are determined wholly by the motions of atoms in my brain I have no reason to suppose that my beliefs are true. They may be sound chemically, but that does not make them sound logically. And hence I have no reason for supposing my brain to be composed of atoms. In order to escape from this necessity of sawing away the branch on which I am sitting, so to speak, I am compelled to believe that mind is not wholly conditioned by matter. [[“When I am dead,” in Possible Worlds: And Other Essays [1927], Chatto and Windus: London, 1932, reprint, p.209.]

This and other related challenges (cf here on in context) render evolutionary materialism so implausible as a worldview that we may safely dismiss it. Never mind how it loves to dress up in a lab coat and shale the coat at us as if to frighten us.

So, the reasonable person, in the face of such evidence, will accept the credibility of the sign — FSCO/I — and the possibility of design that such a strong and empirically grounded appearance points to.

But, notoriously, ideologues are not reasonable persons.

For further illustration, observe above the attempt to divert the discussion into definitions of what an intelligent and especially a conscious intelligent agent is.

Spoken of course, by a conscious intelligent agent who is refusing to accept that the billions of us on the ground are examples of what intelligent designers are. Nope, until you can give a precising definition acceptable to him [i.e. inevitably, consistent with evolutionary materialism — which implies or even denies that such agency is possible leading to self referential absurdity . . . ], he is unwilling to accept the testimony of his own experience and observation.

I call that a breach of common sense and self referential incoherence.>>

____________

The point is, the credibility of materialist ideologues is fatally undermined by their closed-minded demand to conform to unreasonable a prioris. Lewontin’s notorious cat- out- of- the- bag statement in NYRB, January 1997 is emblematic:

. . . . the problem is to get [the public] to reject irrational and supernatural explanations of the world, the demons that exist only in their imaginations, and to accept a social and intellectual apparatus, Science, as the only begetter of truth [[–> NB: this is a knowledge claim about knowledge and its possible sources, i.e. it is a claim in philosophy not science; it is thus self-refuting]. . . .

[T]he practices of science provide the surest method of putting us in contact with physical reality, and that, in contrast, the demon-haunted world rests on a set of beliefs and behaviors that fail every reasonable test  [[–> i.e. an assertion that tellingly reveals a hostile mindset, not a warranted claim] . . . .

It is not that the methods and institutions of science somehow compel us to accept a material explanation of the phenomenal world, but, on the contrary, that we are forced by our a priori adherence to material causes [[–> another major begging of the question . . . ] to create an apparatus of investigation and a set of concepts that produce material explanations, no matter how counter-intuitive, no matter how mystifying to the uninitiated. Moreover, that materialism is absolute [[–> i.e. here we see the fallacious, indoctrinated, ideological, closed mind . . . ], for we cannot allow a Divine Foot in the door. [“Billions and Billions of Demons,” NYRB, January 9, 1997. Bold emphasis and notes added. of course, it is a commonplace materialist talking point to dismiss such a cite as “quote mining. I suggest that if you are tempted to believe that convenient dismissal, kindly cf the linked, where you will see the more extensive cite and notes.]

No wonder, in November that year, ID thinker Philip Johnson rebutted:

For scientific materialists the materialism comes first; the science comes thereafter. [[Emphasis original] We might more accurately term them “materialists employing science.” And if materialism is true, then some materialistic theory of evolution has to be true simply as a matter of logical deduction, regardless of the evidence. That theory will necessarily be at least roughly like neo-Darwinism, in that it will have to involve some combination of random changes and law-like processes capable of producing complicated organisms that (in Dawkins’ words) “give the appearance of having been designed for a purpose.”
. . . .   The debate about creation and evolution is not deadlocked . . . Biblical literalism is not the issue. The issue is whether materialism and rationality are the same thing. Darwinism is based on an a priori commitment to materialism, not on a philosophically neutral assessment of the evidence. Separate the philosophy from the science, and the proud tower collapses. [[Emphasis added.] [[The Unraveling of Scientific Materialism, First Things, 77 (Nov. 1997), pp. 22 – 25.]

Too often, such ideological closed-mindedness and question-begging multiplied by a propensity to be unreasonable, ruthless and even nihilistic or at least to be an enabler going along with such ruthlessness.

Which ends up back at the point that when — not if, such an utterly incoherent system is simply not sustainable, and is so damaging to the moral stability of a society that it will inevitably self-destruct [cf. Plato’s warning here, given 2,350 years ago]  — such materialism lies utterly defeated and on the ash-heap of history, there will come a day of reckoning for the enablers, who will need to take a tour of their shame and explain or at least ponder why they went along with the inexcusable.

Hence the ugly but important significance of the following picture in which, shortly after its liberation, American troops forced citizens of nearby Wiemar to tour Buchenwald so that  the people of Germany who went along as enablers with what was done in the name of their nation by utterly nihilistic men they allowed to rule over them, could not ever deny the truth of their shame thereafter:

Buchenwald01
A tour of shame at Buchenwald, showing here the sad, shocking but iconic moment when a woman from the nearby city of Wiemar could not but avert her eyes in horror and shame for what nihilistic men — enabled by the passivity of the German people in the face of the rise of an obviously destructive ideology since 1932 — had done in the name of her now forever tainted nation

It is time to heed Francis Schaeffer in his turn of the 1980’s series, Whatever Happened to the Human Race, an expose of the implications and agendas of evolutionary materialist secular humanism that was ever so much derided and dismissed at the time, but across time has proved to be dead on target even as we now have reached the threshold of post-birth abortion and other nihilistic horrors:

[youtube 8uoFkVroRyY]

And, likewise, we need to heed a preview of the tour of shame to come, Expelled by Ben Stein:

[youtube V5EPymcWp-g]

Finally, we need to pause and listen to Weikart’s warning from history in this lecture:

[youtube w_5EwYpLD6A]

Yes, I know, these things are shocking, painful, even offensive to the genteel; who are too often to be found in enabling denial of the patent facts and will be prone to blame the messenger instead of deal with the problem.

However, as a descendant of slaves who is concerned for our civilisation’s trends in our time, I must speak. Even as the horrors of the slave ship and the plantation had to be painfully, even shockingly exposed two centuries and more past.

I must ask you, what genteel people sipping their slave-sugared tea 200 years ago,  thought of images like this:

African_woman_slave_trade
An African captive about to be whipped on a slave-trade ship, revealing the depravity of ruthless men able to do as they please with those in their power (CR: Wiki)

Sometimes, the key issues at stake in a given day are not nice and pretty, and some ugly things need to be faced, if horrors of the magnitude of the century just past are to be averted in this new Millennium. END

Comments
Dr. Liddle has made a very explicit statement that self-replication + heritable variation is all that is required to generate all subsequent life forms (which in ID terms translates into generating and sustaining FCSI). This statement simply re-iterates the Darwinian model of RM’s & NS since RM’s & NS assume self-replication + heritable variation from the onset. No. I have said, many times, that self-replication with heritable variance in reproductive success will result in the most successfully reproducing variants becoming more prevalent. This is actually simply logic, and in can be readily demonstrated using a computer model. I did not say it that "all subsequent life forms" will necessarily be generated if these things are in place - I don't even know what that would mean. In a very simple environment, the population might move straight to a maximum and remain unchanged thereafter. Diversification will happen if the environment is rich an dynamic in resources and threats, which the real environment is.Elizabeth B Liddle
June 29, 2013
June
06
Jun
29
29
2013
01:55 AM
1
01
55
AM
PDT
KF, Would you like to try your hand at defending the concept of the immaterial soul? BA77 and Joe aren't doing so well at it. I'm sure they would appreciate some help.keiths
June 29, 2013
June
06
Jun
29
29
2013
01:50 AM
1
01
50
AM
PDT
keiths:
The goal is far more modest. These programs demonstrate that Darwinian processes have the ability to generate adaptations, and they provide a convenient and simplified environment in which to study the process through which that happens.
AVIDA does something else, which is extremely important. All the functions that confer increased reproductive success to the organism (enable it to gain more energy) are Irreducibly Complex - don't work if one part is removed. Not only that, but the pathways to some functions were deeply ID - required many non-advantageous precursors, including some quite steeply deleterious ones. So it is disproof-of-concept that if a thing is IC it can't evolve. It may still be true that some things can't evolve (wheels in multicellular organisms, for instance), but it does show that showing that a thing is IC is not prima facie evidence that it cannot evolve.Elizabeth B Liddle
June 29, 2013
June
06
Jun
29
29
2013
01:48 AM
1
01
48
AM
PDT
KF,
Stow the ever so handy talking points for a moment... And so far we are seeing a fail coming out the starting gates.
Indeed we are. You've failed to comprehend that the probability of flipping all heads is tiny, but not zero. You've failed to answer my points regarding Avida. And you've failed to recognize how breathtakingly ironic it is for you, of all people, to complain about "talking points". Lewontin strawman soaked in oil of ad hominem and ignited to cloud, poison and polarise the atmosphere Alcibiades please do better Alinskyite ...ad nauseam.keiths
June 29, 2013
June
06
Jun
29
29
2013
01:46 AM
1
01
46
AM
PDT
KS: Stow the ever so handy talking points for a moment (eve wondered WHY they are ever so handy, in an era dominated by men who study the power of advertising? . . . ) and THINK. Start with the little toy example of 500 coins and why, reliably we would not on the gamut of he solar system, by blind chance tossing ever arrive at 500 H's as an outcome. That is where it begins. And so far we are seeing a fail coming out the starting gates. Good day. KFkairosfocus
June 29, 2013
June
06
Jun
29
29
2013
01:20 AM
1
01
20
AM
PDT
Jerad: You have simply shown your domination by ideological posturing, through resort to silly, accusation loaded name calling instead of investigating facts and relevant concerns. And BTW, to be concerned about policies before they are implemented and insist on serious discussion of where things will end up and whether the proposals are well grounded is not a fallacy. The resort to accusations of slippery slopes without actually examining evidence, in a world in which there really are slippery slopes is not wise. Indeed, failure to address deliberation on issues and facts before deciding on major and potentially disastrous points, it reflects lemming- like, rush over the cliff with the crowd behaviour. BTW, have you thought through the implications of the Hunter- Madsen manipulation strategy as already was linked on? And not just on one particular topic? (You give little or no sign of that.) And no, I do not hold that anyone who disagrees with me is therefore out to destroy civilisation, that's silly. I am saying instead that when one is acting under colour of law and policy in ways that affect truly foundational institutions such as marriage, family and sexual identity, one had better get one's ducks in a row first. And, on actually investigating -- have you even bothered to see what the distinction of say Melanesian from Greek from current Western patterns are? or incidence in populations etc etc? There is just no evidence coming from you of actually taking matters of fact and concern seriously -- my findings are that the policies we are embarking on as a civilisation are predictably disastrous. Which, historically, is no great surprise, the overwhelming evidence of history is that civilisations, states and institutions have a very strong tendency to self-destruct through what some have aptly called the march of folly. Or have you not learned the two main lessons history teaches? First, that those who refuse to learn from it, are doomed to repeat the worst chapters, and that by and large we refuse so to learn? Thus, we see the familiar cycle of sacrifice and success leading to arrogance and folly, thence suicidal policies and thence disaster. In the 1930's, we nearly destroyed our civilisation by refusing to adequately prepare and gird ourselves to address aggression. Across the Cold war, economic and geostrategic folly were a marked feature of policy in many countries, latterly joined by refusal to admit error and rescue that was not deserved that led to victory across the 1980's led by leadership who were opposed and caricatured by the smugly comfortable and shallow every step of the way. In the past 20 years, from what I have seen, much the same is happening. Indeed, it is shocking how superficially the public in too many democratic polities makes major political decisions. 9But then, the fickleness of the crowd or mob was always a major concern on democracies, that is why the framers of modern representational democracy sought to put in stabilising mechanisms such as Constitutions, separation of powers, bills of rights, checks and balances etc etc. Problem is, such are being subverted in our day by the rise of a new demagoguery that now uses the powers of dark science to manipulate at an unprecedented level of effectiveness. Disaster, horrific disaster predictably looms ahead. And already the vultures are gathering and circling for the anticipated feast.) And it is in that wider context that I look on and shake my head at just how prone we are to the march of folly. And don't get me started on the problem of political messianism and the wider notion of the state as saviour. For cause, I am quite pessimistic over the state of our civilisation, but that is not because I have any silly notion that if you disagree with me -- what an ill-informed notion that this is about ego instead of doing one's homework before holding strong opinions on a major matter -- you are destroying civilisation, No, I did my homework and the report is that the trends, on many dimensions, are bad, utterly unsustainable. The constant, radical agenda driven manipulation of public, policy and law, and of institutions, is jut one manifestation of it. And you need to know that one of my areas of professional focus is exactly sustainable development oriented policy. It is my business, literally, to study what is going on, and the report is bad, very bad. The prognosis is that our civilisation is heading for a crash, bigtime. And far too many are benumbed and besotted, unwilling to attend to signs before it is too late. But then, Machiavelli did warn that our tendency is to not see things until they are too obvious to deny, so that political disasters are as hectic fever, at the first easy to cure but hard to diagnose, then when at length it is obvious it is too late to cure. Our civilisation has passed a watershed and -- as is so commonly seen when folly is on the march -- is in no mood to reconsider, so just the passage of time is now against us. For, a watershed has acting forces that if left to themselves will wedge what was initially close together ever more far apart, leading to breakdown of ability to reconcile in the face of mounting threats. Have you studied the story of France in the 1930's, in the run up to May 10, 1940? It is instructive on what happens when a society becomes ever more polarised with wedge issues and toxic rhetoric, and is so taken up with internal squabbling that it cannot see clearly as to what is looming up on the horizon. Ah, but we are ever so prone to agree with Henry Ford that history is bunk. "Dwell on the past, you lose an eye. Forget the past and you lose both your eyes." Russian proverb. "Understand the past, act in the present, build the future." ANC motto. Good day. KFkairosfocus
June 29, 2013
June
06
Jun
29
29
2013
01:13 AM
1
01
13
AM
PDT
kairosfocus:
...the current push to create laws and policies that homosexualise pivotal institutions in our civilisation such as marriage?
Lol. Having a bad DOMA/Prop 8 week, KF? Marriage isn't being "homosexualized". It's still legal for straights to marry.
Do I need to go on to distinguish the concepts, genuine natural and civil liberty from license?
No.
Nope, they [Avida and similar programs] show that intelligently designed algorithms executed on intelligently designed machines will do what hey were designed to do.
Any correct program does that. What's special about Avida is that it implements inheritance, random variation, and selection -- the ingredients of a Darwinian process -- and it shows that Darwinian processes can produce complex adaptations. The question for ID proponents isn't whether Darwinian evolution happens in nature. They know that it does, because inheritance, random mutation and natural selection all happen, and if you have those, you have Darwinian evolution. IDers don't deny microevolution, after all. The only question is whether the evolution that happens in nature is as powerful as the evolution that happens in Avida and other programs. IDers want to show that it isn't, but that depends on modeling the specifics of ecology, biology, chemistry, physics, and fitness landscapes. They also need to explain why we should accept ID when unguided evolution fits the evidence so much better.keiths
June 29, 2013
June
06
Jun
29
29
2013
12:29 AM
12
12
29
AM
PDT
KF: I find your slippery slope argument to be fear mongering homophobia. And you seem to think that anyone who disagrees with you can be wholesale grouped with those you think are trying to destroy civilisation. The most stable, safe, progressive societies in Europe espouse many of the moral stances you find deplorable. Their populations are looked after and well educated. And many of the people living there cannot understand why certain benefits should be extended only to those who have a sexual orientation the same as theirs.Jerad
June 29, 2013
June
06
Jun
29
29
2013
12:27 AM
12
12
27
AM
PDT
Mr Fox: You were warned and have resorted in the teeth of warning that you were to cease from ad hominem accusations of insanity. (You have obviously failed to bother to think as to why the issues outlined are relevant. And, you were one of the gang of three involved in the original accusations. You have now reached your limit.) You will leave this thread until and unless you can learn to apologise for such nastiness as you have persisted in, and you will not post in any further threads I own until you do so. Good day. KFkairosfocus
June 29, 2013
June
06
Jun
29
29
2013
12:25 AM
12
12
25
AM
PDT
Dr Liddle: You have been commenting adversely on ID for a couple of years now, at least in and around UD. Why is it that after so much time and effort you seem to be unable or unwilling to understand or accurately describe basic ID concepts such as the implications of isolated zones of interest in a much larger config space with the limits on search resources imposed by the 10^57 atoms, 10^-14 s/ chem ionic rxn time and about 10^17 s as reasonably available time? I choose this case, as it is relevant to body plan level evolution on earth, and it is directly relevant to the point of the 500 coin toy example in the OP and elsewhere. I have long summed up the basic message: you are looking at the equivalent of sampling one straw sized sample from a cubical haystack as thick as our Galaxy, ~ 1,000 light years. The only reasonable expectation on such a search per sampling theory, is that it will reliably reflect the vast bulk of the set of possible configs, W. So even were such a haystack to be superposed on our galactic neighbourhood, blind chance and mechanical necessity as search mechanisms would be predictably futile. It is no accident that typical discussions of Darwinian evolution start within an island of function and talk about hill-climbing in such an island. Begged, is the real question repeatedly posed by design theory, getting to such an island of function by blind mechanisms. Where in the real case we are looking at increments of 10 - 100+ mn bases to get to body plans, dozens of times over. We need not elaborate on how repeatedly you have also shown an inability or unwillingness to accurately grasp the force of the related design inference filter. Once we are in highly contingent situations like this, mechanical necessity does not account for the phenomena. Of the two empirically warranted causes of highly contingent outcomes, chance is here frustrated by teh sampling theory challenge, and without first function, the hoped for ratchet of incremental progress by improved performance on random chance and differential reproductive success is not relevant. There is no function much less differential function, to deal with, until you have already found the shores of an island of function. Where, we can easily see that in W, the vast majority of possible configs of relevant parts will be non-functional given that function here relies on close and correct coupling of specific, well-matched interacting parts. Please, think again. And while you are at it, you need to understand that this is simply a further front in the loss of credibility occasioned by continued harbouring of slander on your part at your blog. There is a regional saying to the effect that the harbourer is as bad as the perpetrator, that I think you need to ponder. In that context, attempts to try to twist about the concerns on your repeated strawman tactics, ring decidedly hollow. (And you would be well advised to heed the points highlighted by JDH which extend the issues I highlighted. Start with, until you begin with realistic scales beyond the threshold of the search challenge that has been highlighted, 500 - 1,000 bits, you are inherently setting up a strawman target; your search begins in a target zone that has been intelligently selected, and wanders by virtue of hill-climbing algorithm within an island of function, the issue to be explained is getting to islands of function, as your side keeps on refusing to address. Next, percent fluctuations in coin tossing are scaled to the size of the sample as the graph in the OP shows; where you start with a 4% from mean variation. Next, intelligently designed hill climbing, ratcheting algorithms do not show the needed search for islands of function in wide config spaces dominated by non-function. And more. The attempted rhetorical turnabout -- and do you recall just WHO notoriously favoured this as a propaganda tactic 70 - 85 years ago? -- fails.) Good day, madam. KFkairosfocus
June 29, 2013
June
06
Jun
29
29
2013
12:22 AM
12
12
22
AM
PDT
I’m sorry but is the owner of this blog happy with such ranting?
I recall something posted elsewhere by Barry that would suggest he is. PS @ Barry Indeed I didn't bother to read KF's post.[So you accused someone of insanity without bothering to look at why he said what he said, KF] As I have remarked before, life's too short and on past form he neither says anything new or different, neither does he appear capable of giving critical comments a fair reading. [In short, more projection and ad hominems to excuse making a nasty personal attack without bothering to investigate facts. KF] PPS @ Kairosfocus Ad hominem is a rhetorical fallacy. I am not addressing your argument which is apparently about coin tossing. I am merely pointing out that including the illustrations you did in your OP makes you appear, well, barmy. [That's it, three strikes and you're out. KF] I just thought you ought to know. ______ You ought to know the verdict you have earned by your willfully insistent incivility and just plain want of broughtupcy. You have not even bothered to investigate and read before dismissing someone as mad twice. SHAME ON YOU. Note here below on your instruction to leave this thread and any threads I own until and unless you can find the decency to apologise. Good day, Mr Fox. KF]Alan Fox
June 29, 2013
June
06
Jun
29
29
2013
12:11 AM
12
12
11
AM
PDT
KS:
Avida and other similar programs show that Darwinian evolution is quite powerful.
Nope, they show that intelligently designed algorithms executed on intelligently designed machines will do what hey were designed to do. They also show that for many people, seeing something on a computer is unduly impressive. GIGO, no computer programs or results therefrom are better than their inputs such as data, algorithms, and underlying assumptions and intentions. KFkairosfocus
June 28, 2013
June
06
Jun
28
28
2013
11:53 PM
11
11
53
PM
PDT
Jerad: It seems you have been exposed to just one side of a major issue with serious potential for the future of our civilisation. Your dismissal of what you think is an appeal to authority by reading a book, reflects that. (I have given sources with substance on facts to be examined and evaluated, not dismissed apparently sight unseen like you just did. The very lack of response to serious concerns on merits is revealing. Now, at least try to understand what happens when you see that sort of unresponsiveness joined to a context of unwarranted, atmosphere poisoning projection of base motivation and trying to push one into the same boat as Nazis: hostile stereotyping, demonising and scapegoating. Do you have any idea as to just how many warning flags on ideological agendas and cultist/radical type mentalities you and others have tripped? [And BTW, a side-note: the typical monolithic stories you and your ilk seem to have been told on the attitude of Nazism to homosexuality tell only one side of a much more complex story rooted in the "Spartan" mentality of a significant slice of German Militarism. As this blog is not on homosexualism and issues conected to it, I will only point, just as I have already pointed to the need to examine some facts on the manifestations of the relevant behaviours that are ever so much not on the usual shadow shows projected for our "benefit." I have already commented in brief on the distorted view we have of Hitler's aggression and who paid the major price. A balanced picture would better reflect and give a higher prominence to well past 20 mn Russians, and about 5 mn Poles, which includes not only half the Holocaust but another 2 mn non-Jewish (i.e. overwhelmingly Catholic) Poles. There is also some evidence of an intent to do a Holodomor on a grand scale in the conquered regions of Russia [I use "Russia" loosely -- forgive this, Ukrainians and Belorussians, etc], by confiscating food at harvest and leaving the population of the conquered regions of Russia to starve. Such a more balanced view would also include the fore runners, the Rape of Belgium in the first World War (noting in passing that this is where Hitler served) and the treatment of the Namibians even earlier than that. The Holocaust did not just appear out of nowhere without antecedents and trends, some of which were evident tot he discerning like Heine, a full century before it happened, as his famous prophetic warning tells us in no uncertain terms.]) Do you -- for just one instance -- know what the categorical imperative is, and why one of its forms is that behaviours that if they were to be universalised would end in chaos, are immoral? Did you take even a moment to read up what that principle is before commenting against it as though what is going on is that those who don't think like you read books instead of watching shadow shows [such as talking heads in the secular humanist media or as alleged sages in lecture halls with the power of the grade and the early career or further study recommendation]? (How does the shoe pinch when it is on the other foot? Do you not see that serious rethinking based on actual examination of balancing evidence including that which is pointedly not being headlined, is indicated? (Have you acquainted yourself with the strategy of Messrs Hunter and Madsen which was already linked on, before commenting adversely? Does the strategy not sound ever so familiar to a pattern of projection and talking points int eh usual shadow shows passed off as news, serious commentary and views?) Do you not see how you come across as projecting the reflection of a Plato's Cave mentality that imagines all it needs is to know the handy shadow show put up for benefit of the denizens to know what to think and how to react? Do you really know why a great many people of principle and concern ask pointed questions concerning the current push to create laws and policies that homosexualise pivotal institutions in our civilisation such as marriage? [Actually, that cannot be done, all that can be done is to break down the institution of marriage by imposing something under false colour of law that will undermine it. And you will be shocked to learn that for many radical homosexualists that is in fact their declared agenda. You also need to understand that many radical secularists and statists have long hoped to atomise society by breaking down natural and longstanding institutions that could conceivably be centres of pivotal loyalty other than the state, with of course the family as one such. To all such I reply, that there are some things that simply do not belong to Caesar and if he wants to seize control and make such over in his image, he is a usurper and tyrant.] Do I need to go on to distinguish the concepts, genuine natural and civil liberty from license? KFkairosfocus
June 28, 2013
June
06
Jun
28
28
2013
11:49 PM
11
11
49
PM
PDT
Eric:
All the supposed demonstrations of the power of genetic algorithms (hypotheticals, Avida, and the like) essentially amount to “Assume Darwinian evolution is true, then we can show . . .”
Eric, You are missing the point of Avida and similar programs. They are not intended to establish the truth of biological evolution. To succeed at that, they would have to be extremely detailed and accurate models of ecology, biology, chemistry and even physics. The goal is far more modest. These programs demonstrate that Darwinian processes have the ability to generate adaptations, and they provide a convenient and simplified environment in which to study the process through which that happens. So of course these programs assume the prerequisites of Darwinian evolution: inheritance with random mutation and natural selection. Without those, you don't have a Darwinian process, and if you don't have a Darwinian process, you can't very well study it! ID proponents (at least the sane ones) accept the reality of inheritance, random mutation and natural selection -- after all, who would be silly enough to deny that those happen? So there is no doubt, even among IDers, that Darwinian evolution exists in nature. The question is whether it is powerful enough to explain what we observe. Avida and other similar programs show that Darwinian evolution is quite powerful.keiths
June 28, 2013
June
06
Jun
28
28
2013
10:32 PM
10
10
32
PM
PDT
KF:
Similarly, there are properly extremely serious concerns about impacts of actions now in progress under false colour of law [another point of parallel to plantation chattel slavery and the Atlantic slave trade that pivoted on kidnapping etc . . . ], on marriage, family, sexual identity and social stability, where in the end one of the tests in the categorical imperative is that immoral behaviour, as it becomes widespread is chaotic and destructive.
Homosexuality is immoral? Because it says so in a book?
When it comes to LT’s cheap turnabout shot, that reflects his failure to notice that we actually have taken considerable effort to SHOW the willful blindness to first principles of right reason and to something as blatant as the 500 coins example.
Who is LT? There was only one commenter with the initials LT but his post was only one sentence long.
So, when we turn from such a case and draw out the wider empirically warranted inference on FSCO/I as sign we now know how to understand that the objections are rooted in ideological posturing, not any serious working through of inductive logic and warrant. One who shuts eyes to something as blatant as 500 coins all H (rushing off to strawmen), has no credibility as an objector. Our problem as a civilisation is that we are now in large part putty in the hands of ruthless ideologues of the ilk of Hunter and Madsen, here — as was linked already and also ignored in a rush to ill informed party-line judgement.
We disagree with you and so were part of the rising tide of wretched ideology that threatens to swamp civilisation in immorality, is that it? I'm sorry but is the owner of this blog happy with such ranting? Are all the others with posting privileges willing to be associated with this? What is the moderation policy these days? Can't I disagree with someone for valid mathematical reasons and not have my intelligence, ideology and morals questioned?Jerad
June 28, 2013
June
06
Jun
28
28
2013
10:24 PM
10
10
24
PM
PDT
Two little replies: 1. Jerad, - Physics is about what is observed ( even if the observations are limited to just seeing the effect of one unobserved object on an observed object ), not what I personally observe. 2. Lizzie - You do realize of course that your above pattern @42 is not very interesting because it only had one answer it could ever give. After a certain number of trials, every cell would match the cell in the far right column. There is no other possible answer, the only thing in doubt is how long it took to become all "H". The design of the algorithm dictated that no "T" could ever move to the right. This was not a random walk, it was a steady progression of a ratchet algorithm which could only produce all "H". The result was dictated by the assumptions: 1. The right hand column is an H. 2. A cell can only become itself or what is to its right. The end result was baked into the algorithm which is designed to end up with all results matching the result in the right hand column. If you doubt me try the same problem with the seed value of all "T"s and one "H" in the right most column. You will again end up with all "H". In fact, since the problem with all T's and one H in the right most column, only has at most one cell that can possibly change in the next generation ( the cell just to the left of the leftmost H ) it is very simple to compute the expected number of generations until we end up with all H's. I don't know what you were trying to illustrate, but this example illustrates nothing.JDH
June 28, 2013
June
06
Jun
28
28
2013
09:50 PM
9
09
50
PM
PDT
@49, yes absolutely.computerist
June 28, 2013
June
06
Jun
28
28
2013
09:49 PM
9
09
49
PM
PDT
Computerist @48:
This statement simply re-iterates the Darwinian model of RM’s & NS since RM’s & NS assume self-replication + heritable variation from the onset.
This is an extremely important observation. What we are treated to are restatements of the theory, whether in prose or in silico. All the supposed demonstrations of the power of genetic algorithms (hypotheticals, Avida, and the like) essentially amount to "Assume Darwinian evolution is true, then we can show . . ."Eric Anderson
June 28, 2013
June
06
Jun
28
28
2013
09:32 PM
9
09
32
PM
PDT
Dr. Liddle has made a very explicit statement that self-replication + heritable variation is all that is required to generate all subsequent life forms (which in ID terms translates into generating and sustaining FCSI). This statement simply re-iterates the Darwinian model of RM's & NS since RM's & NS assume self-replication + heritable variation from the onset. Now as far as I can tell, there isn't any specific test that has been performed which has demonstrated this claim to be true. If that's the case then why should Darwinian Evolution be taken seriously by anyone in the world right now?computerist
June 28, 2013
June
06
Jun
28
28
2013
08:33 PM
8
08
33
PM
PDT
E. Liddle, I am really curious. Somewhere along the line, I think that it was said that you are, or were, a "brain surgeon"? I was wondering how it is you are spending so much time on your the blogs championing the causes of a self described " atheist materialist Darwinist". Unless maybe you are retired? Are you getting paid for your involvement? If so, I can't help but wonder where the money is coming from. Where is it coming from, if that is the case? This forum is apparently funded by the Discovery Institute. That seems to be a common complaint by a lot of "neo-darwinist" people commenting here. That it is getting funding from a "right winged" organization, whatever that is. And it is "polically motivated". I have got to be honest. I rarely can read through all of your posts. From my perspective, that is admittedly on the side of some sort of puposeful design perspective, it seems you will often change or confuse the spirit of the subject at hand. Then interject information, that may indeed, have logical grounding in some form or another, but seems to detract from the obvious course and or intent of the original discussion. You also project what seems to me, to be a certain brand of arrogance that couches itself in a kind of "holier than thou" type of expressive motif. As if to say, "you ignorant people, I know a lot more that you do. In fact I know enough to demonstrate that you are wrong and I am right". Admittedly, these are just my impressions, and may not be accurate. So my impressions lead me to other questions. What is your background in the chemical sciences? Chemistry, bio-chemistry, organic chemistry. Do you have a background in OOL research? What are your credemtials when claiming to be able to assess probabilities concerning, what one might describe as, the "science" (philosophy) of the "evolution" of self-replicating molecules. How can you demostrate that, even given such a precursor, this can lead to what we observe today in living organisms, including human life and conciousness? Demonstrate how close we are to being able to make any kind of a correlation, scientifically, between a self-replicating molecule and living systems existing today.bpragmatic
June 28, 2013
June
06
Jun
28
28
2013
07:56 PM
7
07
56
PM
PDT
To clarify: When I said; "It seems that indeed you are attacking a strawman KF. You certainly have not attacked any claim I have actually made" I was referring to claims about coin tosses. I will say no more about the other matter.Elizabeth B Liddle
June 28, 2013
June
06
Jun
28
28
2013
03:51 PM
3
03
51
PM
PDT
Kairosfocus:
F/N: Does Dr Liddle understand the difference in percentage scale of fluctuations to be expected from 20 – 30 tosses of a coin and 500 – 1,000?
Fluctuations in what? Do you mean in the standard deviation of the percentages of Heads? Yes. I have spent more time than I care to think about computing the margins of error on percentage data.
Also, does she understand the difference between an intelligently imposed algorithm and a random walk filtered by needing to be FSCO/I to have FIRST viability? (As in first get to the shores of an island of function on accessible search resources.)
I find this almost impossible to parse, but if you mean that in order for Darwinian processes to begin, you first need a Darwinian-capable self-replicator, yes.
It seems not. Yet another strawman. KF
It seems that indeed you are attacking a strawman KF. You certainly have not attacked any claim I have actually made.Elizabeth B Liddle
June 28, 2013
June
06
Jun
28
28
2013
03:45 PM
3
03
45
PM
PDT
F/N: Does Dr Liddle understand the difference in percentage scale of fluctuations to be expected from 20 - 30 tosses of a coin and 500 - 1,000? Also, does she understand the difference between an intelligently imposed algorithm and a random walk filtered by needing to be FSCO/I to have FIRST viability? (As in first get to the shores of an island of function on accessible search resources.) It seems not. Yet another strawman. KFkairosfocus
June 28, 2013
June
06
Jun
28
28
2013
03:31 PM
3
03
31
PM
PDT
F/N: It is interesting to see how the twisting and turning continues. Apparently, some objectors are unaware of the roots of statistical thermodynamics in the statistics of observable distributions. Such as the second law. I must repeat, that if such objectors are unwilling to acknowledge the significance of something that can be directly and relatively easily shown [500 coins is in the end a toy example illustrative of the FSCI threshold], we have an excellent explanation indeed for why they are as they are in response to other cases. It is therefore plain that we are not here dealing with reasonable objections but ideological party lines that will be clung to despite evidence and reason. Now, I need to speak in brief to something that is not directly on the primary focus of this web, but is unfortunately for the moment entangled by virtue of slanders that have been promoted by those who sought to taint. When it comes to the issue of enabling behaviour for such tainting, we have outright denials of demonstrated facts, and attempts to twist principled objection into alleged irrational fear alleged to be tantamount to racism. (I trust those who make such claims to a black man are aware that unlike what is quite evident for racial characteristics, there is no good and seriously justifiable grounds for imagining that sexual habituation and related behaviours are irreversibly genetically instamped. Indeed, had they taken the time to simply pause and read the opening chapters here -- linked any number of times and willfully ignored in an unseemly rush to party-line judgement, they would have found telling information regarding age of entry upon/leaving -- yes, LEAVING (another politically inconvenient fact . . . many people do materially modify such behaviours) -- behaviour patterns, urban vs rural incidence, the modern Western, Greek and Melanesian patterns as well as population incidence from effectively nil to effectively compulsory for periods of life, that all speak strongly against that notion that has become in the main an article of faith and assumed on media reports and advocacy talking points presented in the name of education. Similarly, there are properly extremely serious concerns about impacts of actions now in progress under false colour of law [another point of parallel to plantation chattel slavery and the Atlantic slave trade that pivoted on kidnapping etc . . . ], on marriage, family, sexual identity and social stability, where in the end one of the tests in the categorical imperative is that immoral behaviour, as it becomes widespread is chaotic and destructive. But no, in sickening arrogance it is supposed or insinuated that no-one who objects can be any different from a Nazi. And the turnabout accusation game is sooo easy, no need to actually investigate and examine, self reflect and find out if those ignorant, stupid, insane or wicked devils who dare object to the latest fashionable politically correct talking points might just have a principled, informed reason for concern. The self-congratulatory stereotyping and scapegoating behaviour I am seeing makes me sick -- and predictably (apparently ignorant of WHO championed the turnabout tactic 70 - 85 years ago) -- there will be a twist about similar to the cheap shot by LT above. More on him later. I have seen such ideological overconfidence and blind partyline tactics decades ago, and they are no less ugly this time around.) When it comes to LT's cheap turnabout shot, that reflects his failure to notice that we actually have taken considerable effort to SHOW the willful blindness to first principles of right reason and to something as blatant as the 500 coins example. So, when we turn from such a case and draw out the wider empirically warranted inference on FSCO/I as sign we now know how to understand that the objections are rooted in ideological posturing, not any serious working through of inductive logic and warrant. One who shuts eyes to something as blatant as 500 coins all H (rushing off to strawmen), has no credibility as an objector. Our problem as a civilisation is that we are now in large part putty in the hands of ruthless ideologues of the ilk of Hunter and Madsen, here -- as was linked already and also ignored in a rush to ill informed party-line judgement. Don't get me into quoting in extenso. BA's summary is dead on and we need to ask serious things about those whose first resort is to without warrant push those who dare question into the same boat as Nazis, with no good reason. Such speak loudest volumes on their intents and attitudes. I suggest it is time to think again and ask if you are living in a modern Plato's Cave and are confusing artful shadow shows for reality. (Ask yourself why the denizens of the cave turned on those who sought to help them.) KFkairosfocus
June 28, 2013
June
06
Jun
28
28
2013
03:28 PM
3
03
28
PM
PDT
Consider the pattern below: H H T H T T T T T T H H H T T H T H T H T H T H T H 46% H H T H T T T T T T H H T T H T H H H H T H T H T H 50% H T T T T T T T T H H T T H H T H H H H T H T H T H 46% H T T T T T T T T H H T T H H T H H H H T H T H H H 50% H T T T T T T T T H H T T H T T H H H H H T T H H H 46% H T T T T T T T T H H T T H T T H H H H H T H H H H 50% H T T T T T T T T H H T T H T T H H H H H T H H H H 50% H T T T T T T T T H H T T H T T H H H H H T H H H H 50% H T T T T T T T T H H T T H T H H H H H H T H H H H 54% H T T T T T T T T H H T T H T H H H H H H T H H H H 54% H T T T T T T T H H H T T H T H H H H H H T H H H H 58% H T T T T T T T H H H T T H H H H H H H H T H H H H 62% H T T T T T T H H H H T H H H H H H H H H T H H H H 69% H T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H T H H H H 73% H T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H T H H H H 73% H T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H T H H H H 73% H T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T H H H H 69% H T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H T H H H H H 73% H T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H T H H H H H H 77% H T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H T H H H H H H 77% H T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H T H H H H H H 81% H T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H T H H H H H H 85% H T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T H H H H H H 81% H T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T H H H H H H 85% H T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T H H H H H H 88% H T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T H H H H H H 88% H T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T H H H H H H 88% H T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T H H H H H H 88% H T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T H H H H H H 85% H T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T H H H H H H 85% H T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T H H H H H H 85% H T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T H H H H H H 81% T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T T H H H H H H 73% T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T T H H H H H H 73% T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T T H H H H H H 73% T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T T H H H H H H 73% T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T T H H H H H H 73% T H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T T T H H H H H H 73% H H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T T T H H H H H H 77% H H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T T H H H H H H H 81% H H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T T H H H H H H H 81% H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T T T H H H H H H H 77% H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T T T H H H H H H H 77% H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T T H H H H H H H H 81% H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T T H H H H H H H H 81% H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T T H H H H H H H H 81% H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T T H H H H H H H H 81% H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T T H H H H H H H H 81% H H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T T H H H H H H H H 81% H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T T T H H H H H H H H 77% H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T T H H H H H H H H H 81% H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T T H H H H H H H H H 81% H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 85% H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 85% H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 85% H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 85% H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 85% H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 85% H H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 85% H H H H H H H H H H H T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 81% H H H H H H H H H H T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 77% H H H H H H H H H T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 73% H H H H H H H H H T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 73% H H H H H H H H H T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 73% H H H H H H H H H T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 73% H H H H H H H H H T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 73% H H H H H H H H H T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 73% H H H H H H H H H T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 73% H H H H H H H H H T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 73% H H H H H H H H H T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 73% H H H H H H H H H T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 73% H H H H H H H H H T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 73% H H H H H H H H H T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 73% H H H H H H H H H T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 73% H H H H H H H H H T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 73% H H H H H H H H T T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 69% H H H H H H H H T T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H 69% H H H H H H H T T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H 69% H H H H H H T T T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H 65% H H H H H H T T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H 69% H H H H H T T T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H 65% H H H H H T T T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H 65% H H H H H T T T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H 65% H H H H H T T T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H 65% H H H H H T T T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H 65% H H H H H T T T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H 65% H H H H H T T T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H 65% H H H H H T T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H 69% H H H H H T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 73% H H H H H T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 77% H H H H H T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 77% H H H H H T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 77% H H H H T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 73% H H H T T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 69% H H H T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 73% H H H T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 77% H H H T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 77% H H H T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 77% H H T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 73% H H T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 73% H H T T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 73% H H T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 77% H H T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 77% H T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 77% H T T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 77% H T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 81% H T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 81% H T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 85% T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 81% T T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 81% T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 85% T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 85% T T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 85% T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 88% T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 88% T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 88% T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 88% T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 88% T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 88% T T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 88% T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 92% T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 92% T T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 92% T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 96% T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 96% T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 96% T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 96% T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 96% T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 96% T H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 96% H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 100% The first row is a randomly generated string of Hs and Ts, using the formula in Excel: if(rand()<0.5,"H","T"). In the next row, each cell contains the formula =IF(RAND()<0.5,[Cell Above],IF(RAND()<0.5,[Cell Above and to the Right],[Cell Above)). The last cell simply repeats the cell above (as the Cell Above and to the Right is empty). This is a very crude model of random drift in a self-replicating population. The odds on a cell cloning itself is 50%, with a 50% chance of "mating" with the neighbouring cell and producing an offspring that is either like itself, or like its mate. The end cell has no choice but to clone itself (it can find no mate). As you can see, H rapidly goes to fixation, and we get all H. This proves nothing about coin tosses; however it does demonstrate that given some crude form of self-replication, even if the starting population has a random distribution of Hs and Ts, random walk alone ensures that the distribution rapidly diverges from that expected under the binomial distribution. The percentages in the last column are the percentage of Hs in that row.Elizabeth B Liddle
June 28, 2013
June
06
Jun
28
28
2013
03:21 PM
3
03
21
PM
PDT
Lizzie to Sal:
Given that we now know that you meant they could have been laid down by some other method, then your original statement was OK. It’s just that having specified “fair coins” it seemed odd that you were saying we should infer shenanigans.
His meaning was OK, but his statement was sloppily written. Which is exactly what eigenstate said.keiths
June 28, 2013
June
06
Jun
28
28
2013
01:40 PM
1
01
40
PM
PDT
Sal:
I suspect in your heart you know it is a stupid sounding statement. You accuse me of writing poorly, but well, you can’t even object to obviously far worse writing and distortion by eigenstate.
I agree that getting 500 heads in 500 tosses of a fair coin is consistent with the idea of a fair coin, with the rules of mathematics and the laws of physics. That particular outcome is just as likely (or unlikely) as any other specified sequence or 500 Hs and Ts. We expect to get a mix of Hs and Ts fairly close to 250 of each but there is nothing to prevent getting 500 Hs. Or 500 Ts. Or HTHTHTHT . . . . Or HHHTTTHHHTTT . . . . Or a sequence that when converted to 0s and 1s and interpreted as ASCII text turns out to be the beginning of a quote from Shakespeare. IF the coin and the tossing process are fair then all outcomes are equally likely. You have backed yourself into a mathematical corner. You are trying desperately to salvage some credibility out of the situation. But no one can prove what we've been saying is incorrect. You're trying to obscure the issue by saying what you said wasn't interpreted correctly. It's up to you to use mathematical jargon correctly when you're making mathematical statements.Jerad
June 28, 2013
June
06
Jun
28
28
2013
01:36 PM
1
01
36
PM
PDT
Sal,
I just want to make sure the readers know your take on the things. I’d think, if you are so insistent I and others agree with you...
I'm not insisting that you (or anyone else) agree with me. I'm asking you to withdraw your false accusations against eigenstate and me.
...you wouldn’t be embarrassed that I repeat exactly what it is you want people to subscribe to.
Why would you assume I'm embarrassed? I've been stating all along that I agree with what eigenstate wrote. He's right. I maintain, and have never said otherwise, that: 1. Every sequence is equiprobable. 2. 'All heads' is consistent with the physics of fair coins, as is every other sequence. 3. Getting all heads is a reason for suspicion. Meanwhile, you have a lot to be embarrassed about: a) sloppy writing, b) quotemining eigenstate, c) writing an OP to ridicule eigenstate, but having it boomerang on you, d) making multiple false accusations against eigenstate and me. If you want to keep drawing attention to those embarrassing facts, be my guest.keiths
June 28, 2013
June
06
Jun
28
28
2013
01:34 PM
1
01
34
PM
PDT
It’s just that having specified “fair coins” it seemed odd that you were saying we should infer shenanigans. You seemed to have ruled shenanigans a priori.
To that end, when there are open ended questions (such as in biology), I wrote it is more formally defensible to argument: Resemblance of Design instead of Intelligent Design, even if ID might be the best explanation to some of us, I've decided it's pointless to draw conclusions about causation for others. I leave that to them. I can however argue forcefully something is analogous to what humans might view as designed. Not even Dawkins would dispute the resemblance. The coin example was there to convey the strength of a resemblance argument. Whether ID was the cause of that resemblance I leave for another discussion since its pointless for me to draw conclusions for people, I let them make up their mind on such a touchy matter. This also leads to the resemblance of design argument in homochirality in biology. We don't need CSI to argue for the resemblance of design. If indeed homochiral biology cannot spontaneously emerge, neither chance nor chemistry alone will account for it. I won't insist formally ID is the reason for life (even though you know that's what I believe). I can however demonstrate that from what we know, homochrality is inconsistent with the chance hypothesis and other considerations from chemistry. It can in principle be falsified by a new discovery about chemistry, but it still is a major problem because homochiral polymers have a half-life, just like a box of coins that started out all head and then is subject to perturbation, it will converge on expectation of randomized patterns. A more delicate problem is describing architectures or designs resistant to future discoveries of physics and chemistry. That is the subject of another post. But the homochirality problem, though not airtight, is still a nasty problem for OOL, and it also has bearing on the dating of the geological column.scordova
June 28, 2013
June
06
Jun
28
28
2013
01:33 PM
1
01
33
PM
PDT
KF:
Now, can we see someone willing to at least face the facts on tossing 500 coins?
We have been. You just disagree with us. I second what Elizabeth says about coin tossing. Please listen. Objectively. KF:
I need to ask, what part of so rare in the config space that with all but certainty an outcome is reliably unobservable [on a set of considerations and a model that are actually used in grounding statistical thermodynamics and thus the statistical form of the 2nd law of thermodynamics, in a famous introduction by L K Nash . . . ], on chance plus necessity, is so hard to acknowledge? And, if there is an unwillingness to face something so blatant, do we have any reason to trust the opinions of objectors to design on any number of further subjects?
You really must learn to be more succinct. I don't see why you're casting aspersions on our ability to evaluate other issues just because we disagree with you on this one. You are prejudging us, blatantly. Elizabeth:
Absolutely nothing. If you have two possible explanations, and one is more probable than the other, you adopt the more probable one. Nobody disagrees with this. As I said, you can formalise it using Bayes Rule, and probably by other means as well. But that is not the same as saying that 500 Heads is inconsistent with the Laws of Physics. That statement is incorrect. 500 Heads is perfectly consistent with the Laws of Physics.
Very nicely put. Sal:
That is correct as it stand because I said inconsistent with Binomial Distribution, that connotes inconsistent with expectation. There might be some excuse for not reading it correctly, but it would still be a misreading to get the statement twisted the way it was.
Why not use terms as there are agreed upon in the mathematical community? Inconsistent does not mean what you are trying to say it means.
That’s the price one pays for equivocating a common sense statement on my part into some idiosyncratic abnormal rendering of what I said. The result is something that sounds absurd. If one is going to knockdown a strawman, at least knock down a strawman and not your own credibility.
You make mathematical statements and use terms in a way not common to the mathematical community and when you get told off you blame us? JDH:
I heartily disagree. Physics is not a study of what could possibly happen, it is about what does happen.
You mean like quantum mechanics and Shroedinger's cat? Have you observed quantum tunnelling recently? Or gravity waves? Found any black holes in the hardware store? Got a stock of dark mass in your garage? Physics is about modelling the universe. The better models match more data and have greater predictive power. Elizabeth:
Before I respond to this, I want to make it absolutely clear that I entirely agree that faced with an actual series of 500 (or even 20) Heads, claimed to be tossed fairly with a fair coin, I would call foul.
And we would try very, very, very hard to find an explanation before ascribing chance. owendw:
Wouldn’t it also be uncontentious to say that no laws of physics would be broken if suddenly, without provocation, all of the molecules in a small room ended up on one side of the room;
It could happen but there are lots of forces and effects conspiring against it. The improbability is much greater than getting 500 heads in a row.
or would it conflict with the laws of physics to say that a burst of radio waves from space turned out to represent the first 1000 prime numbers?
I assume you mean in sequence. Since there is no known formula which can predict the occurrence of the 'next' prime number then I think that event would be almost guaranteed to indicate an intelligent signal. I could be wrong. Maybe tomorrow someone will find a complicated algorithm and a natural process which mimics it. I doubt it but if they do I'll alter my view accordingly.
In the latter case, if you insisted that, since it’s possible according to the laws of physics, therefore it’s reasonable to conclude that there’s no intelligent life beyond the earth, I do believe you would be exiled to some far off place where you could contemplate your errors and meanwhile do no further harm to the scientific enterprise.
I don't think you can prove a negative. Even if we can explain every single signal we get as some naturally occurring event that cannot be proof that there are other intelligent beings in the universe. On the other hand . . . where are there? Fermi's famous question.Jerad
June 28, 2013
June
06
Jun
28
28
2013
01:25 PM
1
01
25
PM
PDT
1 2 3 4 5 6

Leave a Reply