OWID — Covid patterns

_{kairosfocus

May 2, 2020

Academic Freedom, Defending our Civilization, Geo-strategic issues, Intelligent Design, Medicine, News Highlights, rhetoric, Sci-Tech watch}

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Let’s look at daily confirmed cases:

and at a seven-day rolling average for deaths:

South Korea seems to have beaten this wave. Several advanced countries show a stubborn plateau, which is reflected in the linear ongoing growth. It is not confined to the US, we need to learn from the Koreans; who BTW are HCQ users. The “mesa” for China underscores the observation that Chinese data has to be regarded with care. END

Comments

Sev @ 38: you are one strange dude!Fasteddious_{May 4, 2020
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Tyson warned Monday that it expects more meat plant closures this year. “ We have and expect to continue to face slowdowns and temporary idling of production facilities from team member shortages or choices we make to ensure operational safety," the company said in a statement discussing financial results from the first three months of this year. https://www.kctv5.com/tyson-warns-more-meat-plant-closures-are-coming/article_40104afb-0933-58de-a85b-ca9680ff5396.htmlrhampton7_{May 4, 2020
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Metro Health officials in Nashville and Davidson County have confirmed 298 cases of COVID-19 at the Tyson Foods plant in Goodlettsville, Tenn., Fox 17 reports. Officials also confirmed that 220 of those cases came from Davidson County. Outbreaks have been reported at Tyson Foods plants in various areas, including Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Nebraska and Washington. Aside from the risk to workers, these outbreaks have raised concerns about the security of the nation’s food supply. One outbreak reportedly infected 900 of the facility’s employees in Logansport, Ind. Tyson Foods has announced plans to deploy “mobile medical clinics” to its facilities following a spate of coronavirus outbreaks that forced the temporary closure of several processing plants.rhampton7_{May 4, 2020
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Rantoul Foods, which is based in Rantoul, IL and processes between 30 million and 35 million pounds of pork each month, saw its first case on April 25, said Jerry Jacobsen, the company's director of human resources, safety and business administration. Since then 20 more cases have been reported. Rantoul is about 200 miles northeast of St. Louis. The Rantoul, Illinois’ plant’s total cases make up the overwhelming majority of the total of the 27 cases reported in Rantoul. Village of Rantoul Administrator Scott Eisenhauer said in an email officials “have assisted some commercial and industrial businesses in identifying resource providers for masks, gloves and hand sanitizer.” As of April 30, there have been at least 6,300 reported positive cases tied to meatpacking facilities at at least 98 plants in 28 states, and at least 30 reported worker deaths at 17 plants in 12 states, according to previous reporting by the Midwest Center for Investigative Reporting. https://www.stltoday.com/business/local/covid-19-outbreak-hits-rantoul-illinois-meat-processing-plant/article_a5b60f23-8395-5db6-8c06-f7964838d2ec.htmlrhampton7_{May 4, 2020
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So it’s not uncommon to not be able to identify the ground zero patient, good to know With all the flight tracking capabilities it should be possible to determine whether flights out of Wuhan to the rest of China while still allowing international travel (I don’t expect anyone here to know how to do this) but if this is true to me that’s prima facie evidence that China lied to the world. Vividvividbleau_{May 3, 2020
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I don't know about the timing of the Wuhan quarantine, but as to this
. Secondly who is patient zero why have we not been able to identify who the first patient was. Is this normal or abnormal? .
I don't think it's abnormal, especially given the number of people that have only mild symptons of this illness. They did find the likely 'index case' for SARS, but there is no patient zero for H1N1 or HIV and we don't even know which country the 1918 pandemic flu arose in (Spain got the rap for that one because they reported it first). The phylogenetic evidence is pretty clear that the pandemic strains arose in Wuhan in Nov. or December of this year. It's possible the infections produced only mild (or even no) symptoms and the patients didn't seek medical help, so finding out the virus got out of those patients and into the community will be very difficult. In this case, theorthomyxo_{May 3, 2020
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KF, I don't think people are justified in concluding things like Sept 11/JFK/Harambe were inside jobs, but you are correct in that we have to be skeptical about the word of US govt officials (and even more so of Chinese officials).daveS_{May 3, 2020
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Vivid, I don't know the answer to either question. I vaguely recall reading that someone at the Wuhan market was a candidate patient zero, but whether that has held up I'm not sure.daveS_{May 3, 2020
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Vivid, what happened to Doctor Zero, never mind patient zero. KF PS Scroll up and look at the mesa in the Chinese data. After that. I am prepared to scrap the China numbers as hopelessly compromised. In which context, worst in the world etc are meaningless.kairosfocus_{May 3, 2020
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DS, you will of course catch the semi-cynical intent of my remark. Having self-shattered credibility too many times [including some disturbing handwritten notes this week] the word of US official agencies is running at a steep discount. At this rate, they are going to have a lot of people signing up to things like the JFK assassination was an inside job or even the rule of thumb, never believe anything until it is officially denied. Does this stuff go back as far as the Lincoln assassination? The Mexican War? The Sinking of the Maine is generally conceded. KFkairosfocus_{May 3, 2020
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Sev, groundless hostility and projection duly noted. KFkairosfocus_{May 3, 2020
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Dave “Thanks. I’d certainly like to know more about the nature of this “evidence” Pompeo claims” There are two things that have bothered me, one of which should be easily verified I would think. That is did China halt flights out of Wuhan to the rest of China?. Secondly who is patient zero why have we not been able to identify who the first patient was. Is this normal or abnormal? . Vividvividbleau_{May 3, 2020
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Fasteddious @ 36 I think there is some truth in what he writes. The problem with railing against government is what do you put in its place? If you want roads, water supply, sewage and sanitations systems, hospitals, law enforcement and all the other infrastructure that makes modern civilization possible, how do you arrange it? Some one has to make the decisions. There is also this little passage from the article you cite:
The mark of the modern progressive state is the nauseating affectation of superior wisdom and righteousness by its ruling class, which justifies it in telling the rest of us what to do, say, and think; and the advice they offer us is always backed up by the threat of violence.
It could easily be paraphrased as: "The mark of the modern evangelical Christianity is the nauseating affectation of superior wisdom and righteousness by its ruling class, which justifies it in telling the rest of us what to do, say, and think; and the advice they offer us is always backed up by the threat of violence."Seversky_{May 3, 2020
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The problem with any virus like COVID-19 is that it is incredibly tiny. To get any kind of image, we need to use advanced technology like scanning or transmission electron microscopes. But, impressive as they are, they are of no use for early detection of the little beasties. It would have been nice if the Designer/Creator, having decided to plonk us down in a world infested with uncounted trillions, had equipped us with sensors to detect them before they got inside us. Just sayin'.Seversky_{May 3, 2020
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Here's an erudite set of posts from an "imprisoned" professor who questions the entire VOVID lockdown. His views will resonate with some posting at UD: http://159.203.24.119/2020/04/22/psychic-pandemic-iii-dissident-questions-giant-prison/Fasteddious_{May 3, 2020
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KF,
that is not altogether surprising given leaks and speculations recently that might be expectations management. So, it may well be about as near to truth as officialdom gets.
If they're going to level these sorts of accusations, I would hope that they plan to back them up at some point. I don't see how they can make such statements without following up. Or having to walk them back eventually.daveS_{May 3, 2020
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DaveS @ 23
Hmm. The plot thickens…
I detect the mouth-watering aroma of red herring marinated in oil of ad hominem on a bed of strawman caricature. Goes down well with some fava beans and a nice Chianti, I'm told.Seversky_{May 3, 2020
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Bob O'H,
apparently in the same interview he also said he agreed it was not man-made.
Thanks. I'd certainly like to know more about the nature of this "evidence" Pompeo claims.daveS_{May 3, 2020
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Russia saw a record rise of 9,623 new infections on Saturday with 57 more deaths. The country is now the seventh most-affected country in terms of cases, having surpassed China, Turkey and Iran this week. Officials estimate around two per cent of all Muscovites have been hit by Covid-19 with the capital city considered a hotspot compared to the rest of the country. If the estimate is correct it means more than 250,000 have contracted the virus in Moscow, according to a calculation based on the screening. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russia-sees-record-rise-coronavirus-21965328rhampton7_{May 3, 2020
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Kansas Health officials continue to work to grapple with outbreaks of COVID-19 leading to surges of cases involving locations like meat packing plants and prisons. The Kansas Department of Health and Environment reported an increase of 284 confirmed cases of COVID-19 on Sunday, pushing the state coronavirus totals over 5,000 with 5,030 confirmed cases. KDHE officials said 134 deaths have now been attributed to the coronavirus, up three from Saturday. Health officials said 547 patients have been hospitalized. There have been 30,872 negative tests conducted at KDHE and private labs and the positive rate is at 14 percent. State health officials warned earlier this week that we should see higher confirmed cases of COVID-19 as more testing becomes available, some counties catch up in reporting and more cases from correctional facilities are reported https://www.kmbc.com/article/kansas-continues-to-see-covid-19-outbreak-cases-rise-around-meat-packing-plants-correctional-facilities/32356243rhampton7_{May 3, 2020
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More grocery store workers have tested positive for COVID-19 -- this time at at two SoCal Trader Joe’s locations. Following an NBC4 I-Team investigation, Ralphs Supermarkets will offer testing to all of its 20,000 Southern California employees after there were numerous COVID-19 outbreaks in their stores. The largest outbreak was at a Ralphs in Hollywood where 19 employees tested positive. Other large chains like Walmart have also reported outbreaks, leaving some wondering how else they can protect themselves. The Trader Joe's locations are expected to open Sunday after being deep cleaned. https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/coronavirus/multiple-trader-joes-locations-temporarily-close-after-covid-19-outbreak/2356042/rhampton7_{May 3, 2020
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A new cluster of coronavirus cases has been detected by testing at the Lummi Nation, (Washington state) tribal health officials reported Friday. Sixteen new cases announced Wednesday through Saturday by the Lummi health department bring the tribe’s total to 40 people infected. Before this outbreak, the reservation hadn’t had a new case in weeks. “ It is apparent that families and their children are not following the shelter in place order or practicing social distancing,” the tribe wrote in a Facebook post. “Part of this new cluster involves families visiting other households.” The tribe was among the first to enact a strict stay-home order, on March 22, to starve the virus of opportunities to spread. The tribe also took early steps to obtain testing supplies and educate its roughly 5,000 members about keeping apart. https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/northwest/new-cluster-of-coronavirus-cases-at-lummi-nation-blamed-on-recent-gatherings-that-flouted-tribes-stay-home-order/rhampton7_{May 3, 2020
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Governor Andy Beshear said the state has been in contact with Kentucky meat processing plants as more employees test positive for COVID-19. As of Saturday, the Kentucky Department for Public Health was aware of 313 positive cases and one death in facilities across the state. The governor confirmed Tyson Foods in Henderson and JBS USA in Louisville have both agreed to close for a short period of time for cleaning. Henderson County released a statement from Tyson Foods saying the company would cancel production Thursday through Sunday for cleaning and additional sanitation efforts. Governor Beshear said Perdue Farms, which has 162 positive cases, has not been as cooperative as Tyson Foods and JBS USA. https://spectrumnews1.com/ky/lexington/news/2020/05/03/growing-number-of-covid-19-cases-and-kentucky-meat-plantsrhampton7_{May 3, 2020
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How it food processing should be handled: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum has held up a Canada-based potato processing business as the gold standard for protecting employees from the coronavirus, stating that Cavendish Farms plants in North Dakota and elsewhere have not recorded a single COVID-19 case among thousands of workers. The company employs 250 people at its Jamestown plant. 'It has been a family owned-business for decades, taking care of their people,' Burgum said. 'They have a culture of safety that has been long established. It's easy for them to take it up another level.' Cavendish Farms spokeswoman Mary Keith said the numerous safeguards include infrared cameras to monitor the temperatures of people entering buildings and hundreds of signs in multiple languages placed throughout the plants to make employees aware of social distancing and other guidelines. The company purchased 2,700 plexiglass face shields for all of its operations and has added floor-to-ceiling barriers made of plexiglass or wood, she said. https://kstp.com/coronavirus/grand-forks-outbreak-has-other-north-dakota-plants-on-alert-/5718917/rhampton7_{May 3, 2020
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A federal strike force is headed to Amarillo in response to a surge of coronavirus cases tied to meatpacking plants in the area. Amarillo Mayor Ginger Nelson announced on Saturday that a team of federal officials would arrive in the Texas Panhandle as soon as Sunday to help "attack" outbreaks in the plants and take over testing and investigations of people contracting the new coronavirus. The latest figures reported by the state put the number of people who have been infected in Potter County at 684, giving it an infection rate of 5.66 per 1,000 residents. That’s roughly four times higher than the infection rates in Harris and Dallas counties. The spread of the coronavirus in Amarillo though is dwarfed by the rate of infection in Moore County, its neighbor to the north that’s home to the massive JBS Beef meatpacking plant. The infection rate in Moore County stood at 16.65 per 1,000 residents, according to data reported Saturday by the state. https://www.texastribune.org/2020/05/02/amarillo-coronavirus-meatpacking/rhampton7_{May 3, 2020
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DaveS - apparently in the same interview he also said he agreed it was not man-made.Bob O'H_{May 3, 2020
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DS, that is not altogether surprising given leaks and speculations recently that might be expectations management. So, it may well be about as near to truth as officialdom gets. KFkairosfocus_{May 3, 2020
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US Secretary of State:
“I can tell you that there is a significant amount of evidence that this came from that laboratory in Wuhan,” Pompeo said on ABC’s “This Week.” “These are not the first times that we’ve had a world exposed to viruses as a result of failures in a Chinese lab.”
Hmm. The plot thickens...daveS_{May 3, 2020
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Yes, Sweden has most of its population along the coast, with high densities around Stockholm and the Öresund. The Czech republic has a higher density overall, and also a few fairly dense cities. What this says about the epidemiology I don't know. There are so many other factors involved. David Spiegelhalter wrote a good piece pointing out how difficult it is to make comparisons between countries.Bob O'H_{May 3, 2020
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GCS, I suspect Sweden's near arctic geography would lend to urban concentration, much like Canada, with large zones of low population land. That concentration would tend to faster, wider spreading of the epidemic. Without good reason to hold differently, I think it is not just different policy. KFkairosfocus_{May 3, 2020
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