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Science “Proves” Nothing

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When someone says “the science is settled” one of two things is true:  (1) they know better and are lying; or (2) they are deeply ignorant about the philosophy of science.  Geraint Lewis, Professor of Astrophysics at the University of Sydney writes:

. . . science is like an ongoing courtroom drama, with a continual stream of evidence being presented to the jury.  But there is no single suspect and new suspects regularly wheeled in.  In light of the growing evidence, the jury is constantly updating its view of who is responsible for the data.

But no verdict of absolute guilt or innocence is ever returned, as evidence is continually gathered and more suspects are paraded in front of the court.  All the jury can do is decide that one suspect is more guilty than another.

In the mathematical sense, despite all the years of researching the way the universe works, science has proved nothing.  Every theoretical model is a good description of the universe around us, at least within some range of scales that it is useful.

But exploring into new territories reveals deficiencies that lower our belief in whether a particular description continues to accurately represent our experiments, while our belief in alternatives can grown.

Will we ultimately know the truth and hold the laws that truly govern the workings of the cosmos within our hands?

While our degree of belief in some mathematical models may get stronger and stronger, without an infinite amount of testing, how can we ever be sure they are reality?

I think it is best to leave the last word to one of the greatest physicists, Richard Feynman, on what being a scientist is all about:

I have approximate answers and possible beliefs in different degrees of certainty about different things, but I’m not absolutely sure of anything.

Or perhaps you prefer Popper:

Science does not rest on solid bedrock.  The bold structure of its theories rises, as it were, above a swamp.  It is like a building erected on piles.  The piles are driven down from above into the swamp, but not down to any natural or ‘given’ base; and if we stop driving the piles deeper, it is not because we have reached firm ground.  We simply stop when we are satisfied that the piles are firm enough to carry the structure, at least for the time being.

Karl Popper, The Logic of Scientific Discovery, (New York, Routledge Classics, 1959, reprint of first English edition, 2002), 94.

Comments
wd400: I haven't been through all the comments, but I think you've made some good points here.Eric Anderson
October 1, 2014
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The bit about not setting any probabilities to zero has a name is stats, "Cromwell's Law". Reader's mike recognize the quote from which the name arises.wd400
October 1, 2014
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My what a lot of comments, rather that picking stuff out from the above I'll make some general replies. If you hold that there is literally no possibility that something is false, then you are saying no evidence could ever change you mind, no matter how overwhelming (this is easy to see from Bayes Thererom -- if you set a prior to 0 no observation will every move a posterior probability from that value). I can't imagine people really think it impossible that, say, the world was created yesterday complete with textbooks and memories and satellite images, so i doubt any of you really believe there is no possibility that the earth this flat, or the carbon dioxide is not a greenhouse gas. I know about models and observations. That the earth orbits the sun is a model, supported by many observations including the relative motions of planets and (these days) photographs. But it's still a model. I'm afraid I still this stock "science can't prove anything, man..." response is much more indicative of someone with a shallow grasp of philosophy of science that someone using the phrase "the science is settled".wd400
October 1, 2014
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Bill, From the Wittgenstein you linked:
81. That is to say: if I make certain false statements, it becomes uncertain whether I understand them.
This applies to wd400 does it not?Barry Arrington
October 1, 2014
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Bill
I think you have misunderstood what he is asserting
If that is the case then perhaps you can help me understand. I asked this question: “Do you seriously believe there is a tiny fraction of a percent possibility that the earth is flat or that it really orbits the sun?” wd400 responded: “Yes.” Bill, you and I have already agreed that wd400 was wrong when he stated there is room for doubt about whether the earth is round or orbits the sun. The only issue is why he is wrong. I assert that he is wrong because he has failed to appreciate the difference between data and scientific models that purport to account for that data. Do you have another explanation for why he is wrong? If so, I would love to hear it.Barry Arrington
October 1, 2014
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Don't tell the "2D Hologram" folks that the Earth is not flat. They have good maths.ppolish
October 1, 2014
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BA:
Now, can you help me explain to wd400 the difference between being absolutely certain the earth is not flat, on the one hand, and, on the other hand, being less than certain regarding any scientific model that purports to explain why the earth is not flat?
I won't presume to speak for wD400, but I think you have misunderstood what he is asserting. But I'll let him clarify. My take on certainty is best expressed in Wittgenstein's little book "On Certainty": http://www.edtechpost.ca/readings/Ludwig%20Wittgenstein%20-%20On%20Certainty.htmlReciprocating Bill
October 1, 2014
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Folks, IIRC, Feynmann did have a problem remembering which hand was left, which right. I think he used to look at a mole on his hand to remind himself. Newton, at least once IIRC, was fooled into believing he had already eaten dinner. But, I am sure that the round shadow of the earth on the Moon in a Lunar Eclipse, not to mention Eratosthenes' measurement, should have removed doubts on the sphericity of the earth from c 300 BC. BTW, the debate with Columbus was really over his too small estimate for the size of the "ball," and the OBJECTORS were right, just he had evidence of something out there within sailing reach, and he did reach it. Roundness of Earth is a fact of observation and measurement. A theory of planetary formation, is not. KFkairosfocus
October 1, 2014
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Bill, I'm not sure what your point is. Are you still trying to demonstrate that Feynman harbored doubts about whether the earth is round?Barry Arrington
October 1, 2014
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A still larger context for Feynman's remarks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=PL_P6Lz-8o8Sit9oT2RPMejizuoqT_16jP&v=YltEym9H0x4Reciprocating Bill
October 1, 2014
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BA, I hear you, though there is another level of sophomore out there -- secondary. KFkairosfocus
October 1, 2014
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Ah, missed a typo: 9.8 N/kg, not Newtons per Kelvin gram! KFkairosfocus
October 1, 2014
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KF @ 14:
And the very notion that any theory reflects some grand consensus and is beyond correction, is at best sophomoric.
I beg to differ. wd400 at comment 1 assures us that it is "freshmanic" ;-)Barry Arrington
October 1, 2014
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A portion of the Feynman interview from which the quoted passage was drawn: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1tKEvN3DF0Reciprocating Bill
October 1, 2014
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RB: A lot of awful things can be done in even five minutes. KFkairosfocus
October 1, 2014
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Bill @ 13. We finally agree on something. I knew that if we searched long enough it was bound to happen. :-) Now, can you help me explain to wd400 the difference between being absolutely certain the earth is not flat, on the one hand, and, on the other hand, being less than certain regarding any scientific model that purports to explain why the earth is not flat?Barry Arrington
October 1, 2014
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BTW, a fuller rendition of Feynman's remarks: "I have approximate answers and possible beliefs in different degrees of certainty about different things, but I'm not absolutely sure of anything, and of many things I don't know anything about, but I don't have to know an answer. I don't feel frightened by not knowing things, by being lost in the mysterious universe without having any purpose which is the way it really is as far as I can tell." Elsewhere he stated, "Scientific knowledge is a body of statements of varying degrees of certainty -- some most unsure, some nearly sure, none absolutely certain." (from The Pleasure of Finding Things Out) So he seems to be referring to "a body of statements," not necessarily limiting those statements to "scientific models."Reciprocating Bill
October 1, 2014
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BA: A good clip, that puts the matter with a very useful metaphor. An explanation in science may possibly be true and may even be well warranted, but because of the limitations of an empirically supported inductive argument it cannot prove its explanations beyond possibility of correction. That is, IF Theory (T) then observations (O), O so T is a fallacy. Safer, to hold that theories in science are so-far best, most empirically reliable explanations; which MAY be true. Models, as simplifications, are false but useful within a range of validity. And the very notion that any theory reflects some grand consensus and is beyond correction, is at best sophomoric. At worst, I don't wish to put in words. Some factual observations, indeed, are beyond reasonable doubt, such as that apples or guavas drop at 9.8 N/Kg initial accel from trees, or that pure water at STP atmospheric conditions will boil at 100 deg C. Claimed narrative accounts of the deep and unobservable past are not facts and the explanations are much less tested, much less precise, and much less reliable than something like Newtonian Gravitation was when it ran into Relativity trouble. As for Climate change, climate first is a fiction, an average of weather over 33 years, as I was taught way back. It changes, obviously, it must. Trends, there obviously are, and have been. CO2 is a GHG, but so is Water Vapour, which is much more variable. One does not doubt that we are injecting CO2 etc due to technology, but it would be wise to be patient with the models until they can get the structure of atmospheric temp variations right and fine grained, backed up by a much more fine grained temp etc monitoring. I would suggest that it would be wise not to make major policy changes that can have potentially serious economic etc consequences unless they are also separately warranted on other grounds than what the climate models of the past decades and even today say and project. At the same time, we should realise that oil dependence and the regimes propped up by such, should give us serious pause for concern. I think we need to look harder at conservation, alternate energy and renewables. Pebble bed modular reactors, Thorium reactors using molten salt [LIFTR], promising fusion, OTEC, Geothermal energy and PV are all useful to consider. For fuels/energy carriers, I think if we can solve the high-oil content algae problems that is a break through, and alcohol based fuels -- especially butanol [can be put in a gasoline engine today and it would basically work], should be looked into. The ME Mess and the Venezuela mess give me waking nightmares. KFkairosfocus
October 1, 2014
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Barry:
Let me ask you Bill, do you entertain any doubt whatsoever that the earth is not flat?
None whatsoever.Reciprocating Bill
October 1, 2014
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KF:
I can understand your concern. My reluctant conclusion is that as a high controversy site (that often faces pretty dirty tricks such as the latest I was banned stunt), it is better that way.
One solution is to have the ability to edit time out after some period of time. Some sites use 60 minutes, but I think 30 or even 15 would suffice.Reciprocating Bill
October 1, 2014
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Bill @ 9: You misunderstand Feynman. He was not a radical skeptic about the veracity of his sense impressions. In context, he meant he was not absolutely certain about any scientific model. Let me ask you Bill, do you entertain any doubt whatsoever that the earth is not flat?Barry Arrington
October 1, 2014
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wd400
No amount of freshman philosophy courses changes that.
Thank you also for this little tidbit. Your failure to understand the difference between data and models that account for that data (which, incredibly, you repeated after correction) suggests that you should perhaps attend a freshman philosophy course instead of dismissing its relevance so flippantly. Once again we have a materialist pushing a claim with a confidence, indeed a relish, that is inversely proportional to its veracity.Barry Arrington
October 1, 2014
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Barry:
I don’t think there is any chance whatsoever that the earth is flat. Nor do I think there is any chance whatsoever that the earth does not orbit the sun.
Which would place you at odds with Feynman, who has "approximate answers and possible beliefs in different degrees of certainty about different things, but I’m not absolutely sure of anything." To state that there is no chance whatsoever that the earth is flat is to state that you are absolutely sure that the earth is flat. If you withhold the characterization "the science is settled" on those matters, what characterization do you prefer?Reciprocating Bill
October 1, 2014
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Ah, V: I can understand your concern. My reluctant conclusion is that as a high controversy site (that often faces pretty dirty tricks such as the latest I was banned stunt), it is better that way. I suggest, write posts in an editor that will give straight quote marks (for addresses) and which allows you to do edits. When ready, post. KFkairosfocus
October 1, 2014
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Ahem, pardon the lack of editing. (Is UD ever going to get an editor so we can make corrections?)Vishnu
October 1, 2014
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WD400: The earth really is not flat, it really does orbit the sun and carbon dioxide really is a greenhouse gas. Not amount of freshman philosophy courses changes that.
Both true. However, when somebody claims the "science is settled" about run-away climate change based on human CO2 contributions, I watch my wallet. You see, there are actually two theories involved with the controversial climate science, theory #1 deals with CO2 as a greenhouse. Nobody disputes this. Theory #2 (which the major news media rarely mentions) says that the atmosphere contains a positive feedback system that, with enough CO2, cause catospophic runaway climate disturbance. Not only is this not settled science, but nobody knows what that the SIGN the feedback is, i.e, which direction, positive or negative. All the hysteria is based on the theory #2. And yes, "seeing is believing", and most people are rather confident by the consilence of evidence, including that of their own direct vision, that the earth is not flat, particular those of us who have actually flown around the world. If you think that, say, the origin of life, comes anywhere close to this sort of empirical validation, then you are a simply a kook.Vishnu
October 1, 2014
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wd400, you do not appear to understand the difference between data and scientific models. Do you seriously believe there is a tiny fraction of a percent possibility that the earth is flat or that it really orbits the sun?
Yes. don't you?
No. I don't think there is any chance whatsoever that the earth is flat. Nor do I think there is any chance whatsoever that the earth does not orbit the sun. For you to say that you do shows once again that you are deeply confused.
If you don't then is the science not indeed settled?
No. The fact that the earth is round is settled. The fact that the earth orbits the sun is settled. These data points are indeed settled. But that does not mean the “science” is settled. Go back and read the full article linked in the OP. Perhaps that will help you understand the difference. Here’s an excerpt:
. . . we must collect data, through observations and experiments of natural phenomena, and then compare them to the mathematical predictions and laws. The word central to this endeavour is “evidence”.
Scientists collect data through observations and experiments (the earth orbits the sun). This is only the first (and not necessarily the most important) step. The next step is to develop a theory that explains the data. The second part is where the real science happens. Do you see the difference between the following two statements: 1. The earth orbits the sun. 2. The earth orbits the sun because of X. The truth of the first statement is settled. “X” (whatever “X” is) is never settled absolutely. For over 200 years everyone thought Newton was the last word on why the earth orbits the sun. They were all wrong. Barry Arrington
October 1, 2014
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Without greenhouse gases we wouldn't be here, plants need CO2 and we need plants. No amount of special pleading changes that.Joe
October 1, 2014
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wd400, you do not appear to understand the difference between data and scientific models. Do you seriously believe there is a tiny fraction of a percent possibility that the earth is flat or that it really orbits the sun?
Yes. don't you? If you don't then is the science not indeed settled?wd400
October 1, 2014
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wd400:
Or (3), they are talking like normal human beings and by “settled” they mean the evidence is so strong it would be perverse to hark on the tiny fraction of a percent of the possibility that the claim is wrong. The earth really is not flat, it really does orbit the sun and carbon dioxide really is a greenhouse gas. Not amount of freshman philosophy courses changes that.
wd400, you do not appear to understand the difference between data and scientific models. Do you seriously believe there is a tiny fraction of a percent possibility that the earth is flat or that it really orbits the sun? Thank you for illustrating the point that materialists are so blinded by their religious commitments that they say crazy things like their theory to account for the facts (i.e., their scientific model) is the same as the facts themselves. Barry Arrington
October 1, 2014
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