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The Illusion of Knowledge II

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In Illusion of Knowledge I, I discussed dark matter and dark energy.  Even though neither has ever been observed (i.e., confirmed by experience), the Standard Model of cosmology posits that 21% of the universe is comprised of the former and a whopping 75% of the universe is comprised of the latter.  I quoted skeptical cosmologist Mike Disney:  “The greatest obstacle to progress in science is the illusion of knowledge, the illusion that we know what’s going on when we really don’t.” 

Some people took the point of my post to be a criticism of big bang cosmology.  That was not my purpose.  As I said before, I have absolutely no qualifications to judge the merits of the Standard Model.  But I do know a thing or two about epistemology – the branch of philosophy that deals with the nature of knowledge and knowing.   

The point of my post was that cosmologists who accept the Standard Model are a lot like biologists who accept the Neo-Darwinian Model.  Both theories are based in large part on inferences that are in turn based upon assumptions that may – or may not – be true.  To say that we “know” the universe is made up of 21% dark matter and 75% dark energy is just silly.  We know no such thing.  Scientists infer the existence of dark matter and dark energy because they are both necessary if their assumption about an expanding universe is true.  Scientists infer dark matter and dark energy for the same reason scientists 100 years ago inferred the existence of the ether – their theory needed it. 

But as David Berlinski points out in his article about the Big Bang (thank you Salvador for the link), there have been a number of observations that tend to disconfirm the assumption of an expanding universe.  These anomalies may ultimately be accounted for, and the universe may actually be as the cosmologists assume it to be.  But this is not NECESSARILY the case.  Next month new discoveries may compel cosmologists to reject their current assumptions about an expanding universe, and 100 years from now physics students may chuckle about the quaint 21st century notion of dark energy and dark matter the way physics students today chuckle about the quaint 19th century idea of the ether.  Or next month that guy who has spent the last 20 years trying to detect dark matter in a mine in England may actually catch some, thus confirming the theory by direct observation. 

My point is that it is a species of hubris for cosmologists to say we “know” that dark matter and dark energy exist even though the existence of neither has been confirmed by experience.  They are blurring the distinction between directly observed fact and inferences compelled by their pet theory. 

In the same article Berlinski says this:  “Until recently, the great physicists have been scrupulous about honoring the terms of their contract [to provide a true account of the physical world].  They have attempted with dignity to respect the distinction between what is known and what is not . . . This scrupulousness has lately been compromised.  The result has been the calculated or careless erasure of the line separating disciplined physical inquiry from speculative metaphysics.  Contemporary cosmologists feel free to say anything that pops into their heads.”  

Similarly, the Neo-Darwinian model is based upon inferences that are in turn based upon a key assumption.  That assumption is that blind physical forces are the only forces available to do the work of imbuing living things with the staggering complexity and diversity we observe.  If this assumption is true, something like NDE simply must have occurred.  The problem is that while the assumption may be true, it is not necessarily true.  Nevertheless, Darwinists treat the assumption as if it were necessarily true, and it is no longer considered critically (if it is even considered at all).  It has become part of the intellectual landscape.  This makes Darwinists blind to two things.  It makes them blind to disconfirming data.  If NDE or something like it MUST be true, disconfirming data, by definition, cannot exist.  It also makes them blind to alternate explanations that the disconfirming data, if they could see it, would suggest.  This blindness is the price they must pay for their hubris.

Comments
Hawks writes: “Even if ‘Darwinists’ assume that there are only ‘blind physical forces,’ it does in no way follow that it makes them blind to disconfirming data or that disconfirming data, by definition, cannot exist. There is no logic to that conclusion.” First, one wonders why Hawks puts scare quotes around the word “Darwinists,” as if to suggest that is somehow an improper classification. Second, Hawks is in error. The logic is flawless. If one assumes a priori that blind physical forces are the only forces available to do the work of creating living things, then, by definition, only blind physical forces are available to do the work of creating living things. Therefore, any data that suggests that something other than blind physical forces have been involved – an intelligent agent for instance – must be disregarded. Don’t believe me. Believe Dawkins: “Biology is the study of complicated things that give the appearance of having been designed for a purpose.” Richard Dawkins, The Blind Watchmaker: Why the Evidence of Evolution Reveals a Universe Without Design (New York; Norton, 1986), 1. The rest of the book is devoted to proving that this appearance is an illusion. Why is Dawkins blind to even the possibility that living things actually are as they appear to be? Because disconfirming data – such as the overwhelming appearance of living things – is inconsistent with his blind watchmaker hypothesis which is, in turn, not based on the evidence, but on his a priori assumptions.BarryA
September 8, 2006
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Nothing in the article cited by Mike1962 is inconsistent with what I have said. The article describes an experiment that tends to confirm the existence of dark matter. But the article itself suggests that the existence of dark matter is still not conclusively established. One of the researchers is quoted as follows: “The bottom line is, there really is dark matter out there,” Zaritsky said. “Now we just need to figure out what it is.” This quotation demonstrates that the researchers are equivocating when they use the term “direct evidence.” If one has “direct evidence” of something, one would not still be in the dark (pun intended) about what it is. No, AU’s “direct evidence” falls into a category that most of us would call “strong inference.” And the article as a whole has the triumphant tone of researchers preaching to the research fund-granting choir. This demonstrates, as if further demonstration were necessary, the distorting effect our grant funding system has on science.BarryA
September 8, 2006
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Kudos to DaveScot for pointing out that the expanding universe is an observable and proven idea. BarryA, your point is an unfair generalization at best, it would be similar to me saying that because some of those in the ID camp "know" that the earth was created 10,000 years ago, they must now find facts to fit their assumption. Of course, this does indeed happen, with people like Duane Gish saying the Grand Canyon could have been cut in just a few days with the right amount of water (ie a great flood). It doesn't make the generalization fair however, and although many Darwinists (including me) DO believe natural forces are the only viable explanation for life as we know it, that does NOT imply that evolution is no longer considered critically, as you assert. There is a difference between considering an idea critically for the purpose of improving it, and considering an idea critically for the purpose of disproving it (and thereby injecting your own idea). You posed a challenge to me on a different thread regarding Mt Rushmore (which I responded to, by the way, the post didn't appear to make it). I won't reiterate that response here, unless you'd like me to, but I do have a challenge of my own for you: Let's assume for a moment that ID is true, and that a "designer" created the earth and life on it. What comes next in the study of life sciences? Please explain a test or series of tests that would allow us to understand the methods the designer used, and how those methods would apply to modern biology.Leo1787
September 8, 2006
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BarryA, No we are not in agreement, not even close. You wrote: "Even though neither has ever been observed (i.e., confirmed by experience)" Which, for dark matter, is utterly false. We see things by their interactions; we have now seen the interaction of dark matter with normal matter in at least two impressive ways. No, we don't see dark matter directly (yet). But there are many things in physics we don't see directly. Quarks, for one. Gravity (so far) is another. When most scientists say: "we now know dark matter exists" they are really saying "there is now such spectacular evidence that it exists that it will take a huge overturning of current thinking to change our minds." Anyone who is a scientist understands the unspoken caveat. To make a big deal of a scientists saying "we know dark matter exists" is simple pontificating. And you wrote: "that cosmologist who accept the Standard Model are a lot like biologist who accept the Neo-Darwinian Model." Not even in the same ballpark. Cosmology makes bold predictions that can and are tested. In the recent experiment, the existence of dark matter could have been falsified. This happens over and over--cosmology is not just successful as an experimental science, we are in fact in the era of precision cosmology. For example, the tiny degree of nonuniformity in the microwave background was predicted before it was measured. Accepting the standard model (by which I assume you mean the inflationary big bang) is nothing at all like accepting evolution (or ID). Come to think of it, you may be right. Upon rereading, it seems that all you are really saying is that the standard model of cosmology is based on assumptions that may ultimately prove wrong. You think so? What science isn't based on assumptions that may ultimately prove wrong? If that's all you mean, then yes, we agree.David Heddle
September 8, 2006
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Readers may find this interesting: "UA Astronomers Report First Direct Evidence For Dark Matter" http://uanews.org/cgi-bin/WebObjects/UANews.woa/8/wa/MainStoryDetails?ArticleID=12956mike1962
September 8, 2006
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BarryA wrote: "That assumption is that blind physical forces are the only forces available to do the work of imbuing living things with the staggering complexity and diversity we observe. If this assumption is true, something like NDE simply must have occurred. The problem is that while the assumption may be true, it is not necessarily true. Nevertheless, Darwinists treat the assumption as if it were necessarily true, and it is no longer considered critically (if it is even considered at all). It has become part of the intellectual landscape. This makes Darwinists blind to two things. It makes them blind to disconfirming data. If NDE or something like it MUST be true, disconfirming data, by definition, cannot exist. " Even if "Darwinists" assume that there are only "blind physical forces", it does in no way follow that it makes them blind to disconfirming data or that disconfirming data, by definition, cannot exist. There is no logic to that conclusion.Hawks
September 8, 2006
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David Heddle writes, “This is, in my opinion, fairly simple pontificating.” Mr. Heddle, you seem to have missed the entire point of my post. You imply in your comment that I am denying the Big Bang and dark matter/dark energy. I deny neither. You point out that the existence of dark matter, while not directly observed, is consistent with some empirical observations. I never said it was not. All I have said is that its existence has not been demonstrated CONCLUSIVELY. Then, despite your assertion that I have pontificated, you AGREE with me. You write: “Dark Matter may someday fall.” Since even you agree that the existence of dark matter has not been demonstrated conclusively, I am sure you will also agree that dogmatic assertions of its existence are premature and inquiry-chilling. My point really is that simple. Now don’t you feel silly.BarryA
September 8, 2006
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DaveScott writes: “It’s more than assumption that the universe is expanding. It’s direct observation.” You then go on to describe the familiar Doppler effect. What you say is true to an extent, but the point of Berlinski’s article is that while, on the one hand, the expanding universe hypothesis is supported by confirming observations – most notably the Doppler effect you describe – on the other hand there are not insignificant problems with the hypothesis, and the dogmatic confidence many cosmologists show is simply not warranted. Again, neither I nor Berlinski has denied the Big Bang or the expanding universe. I am merely pointing out that institutional assertions of certitude when certitude is not warranted are inquiry-chilling and thus not helpful to science. I urge you to read the article. It was a real eye-opener for me. Examples of the problems with the expanding universe theory Berlinski points out include: (1) the theory depends upon ad hoc theories of “inflation” to account for the homogeneity of cosmic background radiation; (2) the nature of scalar fields upon which the inflation theory depends cannot be deduced from known physics, so their properties must be hypothesized to support the theory; (3) there are places where the expected relationship between Doppler red shift and distance simply fails, most notably in the massively red shifted quasars in nearby (relatively speaking) galaxies; (4) recent studies by I.E. Segal of the relationship between red shift and flux or apparent brightness in numerous samples casts substantial doubt on the theory as a whole. This is Segal’s conclusion: “[Big Bang cosmology] owes its acceptance as a physical principal primarily to the uncritical and premature representation of [the redshift-distance relationship] as an empirical fact . . . Observed discrepancies . . . have been resolved by a pyramid of exculpatory assumptions, which are inherently incapably of noncircular substantiation.” Sound familiar? I am not able to judge Big Bang cosmology. But I take it that if Mike Disney, the longest serving member of the Hubble Space Telescope advisory committee, and I.E. Segal, a member of the National Academy of Sciences, are skeptical of its claims, I am satisfied that skepticism is not wholly unwarranted, and the Big Bang does not have the status of empirical fact.BarryA
September 8, 2006
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This is, in my opinion, fairly simple pontificating. For dark matter, we are now at the stage where an experiment was proposed (observe colliding clusters) and the results were as predicted by a universe with 25% dark matter. Could it have been a deviation from standard gravity? No longer very likely, because independent dark matter effects (rotational speeds and the aforementioned experiment) while both explained by the same simple dark matter picture would have to be supplanted by a rather ugly, complex modification of gravity contrived to explain both. There is nothing even close to such a unequivocal, falsifying, doable, real experiment in say String Theory, evolution, or ID that from a purely "what is science as we know and love" aspect, cosmology should not even be mentioned in the same breath. Come back when ID (or evolution) proposes a real experiment that could falsify it (not one that says you'll never find this or never explain that) gets the experiment approved and funded, performs the experiment and publishes the result. Although Dark Matter may someday fall, it passed this actual scientific test. As such, it represents the scientific process at its best. I long for the day when ID is anywhere close to the actual predictive and experimental science that cosmology is.David Heddle
September 8, 2006
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It's more than assumption that the universe is expanding. It's direct observation. Light decreases in frequency if the source is moving away from the observer just like the sound of a train whistle decreases as it moves away from you. This is directly measurable. Distant objects in space exhibit the same decrease in frequency and the farther away they are the greater the decrease. It doesn't matter which direction we look - everything very distant is flying away from us. This is also directly measurable. The assumption is that the speed of light is constant across time and space. If that's true then expansion of the universe is as true as anything that can be directly observed is true.DaveScot
September 8, 2006
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