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Science (17 February 2006) has an article on the other selection — Darwin had identified not only natural selection but also sexual selection. According to the authors of this article, sexual selection needs to be dropped and replaced with a theory of cooperative games. Especially striking in the article is the statement “problems with this narrative have continued to accumulate” and reference to “Darwin’s central narrative.” Narrative indeed. Ordinarily, the study of narrative belongs under lit-crit. It’s finally clear why ID isn’t welcome among evolutionary biologists: the study of narratives provides no clue to the engineering problems that biological systems pose. Of course, it goes without saying that this article provides absolutely no justification for thinking that there is a controversy surrounding evolution — it merely suggests that one of Darwin’s two greatest contributions to evolutionary theory was completely out to lunch.

Reproductive Social Behavior: Cooperative Games to Replace Sexual Selection
Joan Roughgarden,1* Meeko Oishi,2 Erol Akçay1

Theories about sexual selection can be traced back to Darwin in 1871. He proposed that males fertilize as many females as possible with inexpensive sperm, whereas females, with a limited supply of large eggs, select the genetically highest quality males to endow their offspring with superior capabilities. Since its proposal, problems with this narrative have continued to accumulate, and it is our view that sexual selection theory needs to be replaced. We suggest an approach that relies on the exchange of direct ecological benefits among cooperating animals without reference to genetic benefits. This approach can be expressed mathematically in a branch of game theory that pertains to bargaining and side payments.

1 Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-5020, USA.
2 Sandia National Laboratory, Post Office Box 5800, Albuquerque, NM 87185-1137, USA.
* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: joan.roughgarden@stanford.edu

A recent review of diversity in animal reproductive social behavior (1) raises questions about Darwin’s 1871 theory of sexual selection (2). Unlike the theories of evolution through common descent and of evolutionary change by natural selection, Darwin’s theory of sexual selection has continually drawn criticism from evolutionists, notably Huxley in 1938 (3). Darwin wrote “Males of almost all animals have stronger passions than females” and “the female… with the rarest of exceptions is less eager than the male… she is coy.” Darwin explained these templates as resulting from females choosing mates who are “vigorous and well-armed… just as man can improve the breed of his game-cocks by the selection of those birds which are victorious in the cock-pit.” He continues, “Many female progenitors of the peacock must… have… by the continued preference of the most beautiful males, rendered the peacock the most splendid of living birds.”

Since 1871, sexual selection theory has often been restated (4), yet contemporary definitions share Darwin’s central narrative: “We now understand… Males, who can produce many offspring with only minimal investment, spread their genes most effectively by mating promiscuously… Female reproductive output is far more constrained by the metabolic costs of producing eggs or offspring, and thus a female’s interests are served more by mate quality than by mate quantity” (5). This narrative is taught in biology textbooks (6), is axiomatic to evolutionary psychology (7), and is broadcast in popular media (8).

The reproductive social behavior of most species has not been studied, but a great many of those that have been do not conform to Darwinian sexual-selection templates. We suggest that sexual selection is always mistaken, even where gender roles superficially match the Darwinian templates.

There are fundamental problems that universally undercut all applications of sexual selection theory to any species, including the contradiction between sexual selection’s rationale and the reason for sexual versus asexual reproduction, the difficulty of sustaining a stable hierarchy of genetic quality within a gene pool in the face of continued directional selection for high-ranked genotypes, and the use of different fitness definitions for males and females. These and other fatal problems are detailed in the references accompanying table S1.

We think that the notion of females choosing the genetically best males is mistaken. Studies repeatedly show that females exert choice to increase number, not genetic quality, of offspring and not to express an arbitrary feminine aesthetic. Instead, we suggest that animals cooperate to rear the largest number of offspring possible, because offspring are investments held in common. We therefore propose replacing sexual selection theory with an approach to explaining reproductive social behavior that has its basis in cooperative game theory. We introduce a notion of allocating time into various relationships to maximize cooperative, or “team,” fitness. In this theory, we can observe that diverse social organizations emerge from how individuals accrue direct benefits from the relationships they develop with one another within diverse ecological contexts.

Cooperative Games in Reproductive Social Behavior
Here, we explain reproductive social behavior in developmental time, not evolutionary time. A social system develops from the interaction of individuals just as body parts develop from the interaction of tissues. In our model, each animal acts continually as an individual or as a team member, and the value of an action is scored by how it contributes to that animal’s average fitness accumulation rate (9). An individual’s actions involve obtaining and exchanging direct benefits to increase the number of offspring successfully reared (10-14). We further envision a future two-tier theory that will embed this phenotypic treatment within an overarching evolutionary-genetic model.

Maynard Smith introduced game theory to biology in the 1980s, including the evolutionary stable strategy (ESS), a population-genetic counterpart to the Nash competitive equilibrium (NCE) of game theory (15). A competitive game ends when an NCE is attained, i.e., the state where each player cannot better its position, given the positions of the other players. In competitive games, the players do not communicate.

In cooperative games, players make threats, promises, and side payments to each other; play together as teams; and form and dissolve coalitions. Cooperative games usually end up at different solutions to an NCE. Nash also investigated cooperative games and introduced the concept of a Nash bargaining solution (NBS) as an outcome of these games (16) . . .

Social note: Joan Roughgarden used to be Jonathan Roughgarden prior to a sex change operation, http://joandistrict6.com/nature-profile.html, and has been trying to discredit sexual difference for many years. Well, at least here’s one critic of Darwinism who isn’t a Christian fundamentalist.

Comments
Valerie, The key step seems to be the association of "health" and "brighter than normal plumage." Once this association is made, it is a straightforward matter of logic to explain how bright plumage comes to predominate in peacocks. You explain the association of "health" and "brighter than normal plumage" with the statement that, in an original drab population, the sleekest and brightest individuals might very well have been the healthiest. And maybe they were. But doesn't the assumption that they were simply assume the question at issue, which is how the bias towards bright and shiny plumage was originally introduced in the peacock population? That seems to be the essence of the "just-so" story. Why do peacocks have bright and sleek feathers? Because, at some time in the past, a peacock was born with feathers brighter and sleeker than all the others who was also healthier than all the others. Cheers, Dave T.taciturnus
February 19, 2006
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Hello again, PaV. You wrote: "Seems to me that cats mate at night. Can you make out that difference at night?" If there's a full moon, yes. But the question is not whether *I* can make out the difference, it's whether *they* can. Their eyes are a lot more sensitive than mine. "More seriously, has any experiment been done to prove that this kind of selection actually takes place?" Sure. I found a nice description of three such experiments in "The Red Queen", by Matt Ridley: "It took a series of ingenious Scandinavians to establish that female birds really do pay attention to male plumes when choosing a mate. Anders Moller, a Danish scientist whose experiments are famously clever and thorough, found that male swallows with artificially lengthened tails acquired mates more quickly, reared more young, and had more adulterous affairs than males of normal length. Jakob Hoglund proved that male great snipe, which display by flashing their white tail feathers at passing females, could be made to lure more females by the simple expedient of having white typing-correction fluid painted onto their tails. The best experiment of all was by Malte Andersson, who studied the widow bird of Africa. Widow birds have thick black tails many times the lengths of their bodies, which they flaunt while flying above the grass. Andersson caught thirty-six of these males, cut their tails, and either spliced on a longer set of tail feathers or left them shortened. Those with elongated tails won more mates than those with shortened tails or tails of unchanged length. Tail-lengthening experiments in other species that have unusually long tails have similarly boosted male success." You wrote: "And in the case of the finches, the beak sizes arose quickly and then went back to their original size when the weather changed back. This is no more than adaptation." Yes, and adaptation is exactly what we're talking about, and what natural selection produces. Even most of your fellow ID supporters (including Jonathan Wells) acknowledge that natural selection can drive microevolution, such as variations of beak size in finches or of pesticide resistance in insects (Wells' only beef with the finch studies is that he believes they don't support *macro* evolution). "You can’t account for this [finch beak variation] using the mathematics of the Modern Synthesis." Could you refer me to a source which explains why? "You’re simply presuming that the females that “happen to be attracted to healthy males...tend to get more descendants”. Has that ever been tested and proven?" PaV, think about it. If you believe that health is heritable at all (and there's overwhelming evidence that it is -- look at the heritable susceptibility to diabetes, heart disease, and certain types of cancer in humans), then females who choose unhealthy mates will have offspring who, on average, are less healthy than those of females who choose healthy mates. Unhealthy individuals tend to die sooner and reproduce less successfully than healthy individuals. Over time, this means that unhealthy traits will tend to get weeded out of the population. If they didn't, we'd have a population full of people with severe genetic diseases. If the unhealthy traits get weeded out of the population, then the individuals choosing mates with those traits will also get weeded out, since their genes become associated with the genes of their mates. "And why go by tail-feathers? Why not make sticking out your tongue part of the mating ritual? Wouldn’t that make more sense?" If tongue displays were a better indicator of health in the original population than tail-feathers, then sure. There are many mating displays in nature that are equally or more bizarre to human eyes than tongue displays. "You make it sound like a “Far Side” cartoon. The peacocks are huddled around the local tavern’s bar. One peacock says to the other, “Yeah, Sarah’s really been eyeing my feathers. You know, I think that one’s going to bring me a lot of great-great grandchildren.” Peacocks can’t think like we do. They simply live and die. They don’t worry about ‘posterity’; only humans do that." When I said "It pays them in the sense that they get their genes into future generations", I didn't mean that they're conscious of the payoff. When Dawkins wrote of "selfish" genes, do you think he meant that genes are literally, consciously selfish? The peacocks with elaborate tails are sought after by peahens. Less-endowed peacocks are not. Is it any surprise, then, that the genes for elaborate tails become fixed in the population? The peacocks don't have to "decide" to have long tails. It just happens, over time. "You’ve been arguing that NS is bring about all these changes because of variable rates of generation due to the “healthy” (colored tails) males. And you say that even the tiniest of advantages will spread. And here you’re admitting that some birds don’t even breed when food is scarce, or that they might reduce their brood size. This sounds like a much more important determinant of “great-great-grandchildren” than colored tail-feathers." It's not either-or. Both traits improve the likelihood of descendants. A bird that refrains from breeding in conditions of scarcity actually increases the number of its descendants. If you produce a full-sized brood when food is scarce, the chicks may all die due to lack of food. You may die also, because (if you're female) you've wasted a huge amount of energy producing eggs, and whether male or female, you have wasted a large amount of energy feeding the young, and less on feeding yourself. Refraining from breeding thus increases the likelihood that you'll live to breed again when food is abundant. "You have to admit that this sure sounds like you’re saying: “Natural selection directs things along in an undirected way.” And that sort of statement, as they say, doesn’t add up, I’m afraid." When IDers and Darwinians argue over whether evolution is "directed", they're arguing over whether it is directed by an intelligence. Darwinians certainly don't believe that evolution is undirected in the sense of being completely random, Variation may be more-or-less random, but selection itself certainly is not. "So females have an instinct to propagate her genes. Do birds know what genes are? I know that sounds facetious, silly; but, the reality is that birds have an instinct to breed—no one would deny that; yet, to say that she wants to ‘ensure that her offspring will be able to attract mates…’, well, that sounds way too anthropomorphic to pass as science for me." Again, this is like thinking that "selfish" in "a selfish gene" means *consciously* selfish. The peahens simply find themselves attracted to males with elaborate tails. There is no conscious deliberation. It is visceral, like the attraction men seem to feel for Angelina Jolie. But that attraction to showy males means that the female's male offspring are more likely to have showy tails, which means they are more likely to attract females and produce offspring. If most of the females prefer showy males, then a female who prefers plainer males is less likely to produce successful male offspring, because her sons will have plainer tails which are less attractive to the female population at large. "I sort of had my tongue in my cheek when I was talking about the “feedback loop.”" Oh. Sometimes I can't tell when you're kidding vs. honestly mistaken. "I see no doubt,as you present the argument, that this is circular reasoning. Circular reasoning involves assuming as a premise part, or all, of what you propose to demonstrate... The argument goes something like this: A.) Some peacocks developed colored tail-feathers. B.) Peahens preferred the colored tail-feathers. C.) As a result, all peacocks have colored tail-feathers." Please see my reply (above) to Dave T. (taciturnus), where I explain how the preference arises in the first place. It's not a circular argument. "If animals produce sexually, and one sex is ’showy’, the other sex is, of course, going to be the ‘choosy’ one. What other options are there? Is the one sex going to mate with itself? So in what way is this a ‘prediction’? It’s a tautology again." If evolution is true, you're right: the 'showy' sex will be the opposite of the 'choosy' sex. That's my point. But a creator/designer could have arranged for the females to be brightly colored, with drably colored males competing for their attention. Or he could have made the females court the males, despite the fact that females invest more in the offspring. The fact that we do not see this in nature suggests that evolution is the better explanation for why things are the way they are. Hope this helps, Valerievalerie
February 19, 2006
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Dave T. wrote: "I know you are already answering a number of people on this thread, and I don’t want to pile on... Health is typically indicated by a normal range that includes both a maximum and minimum... our common experience [is] that health resides in a mean, and that both the excessive and defective conditions are unhealthy." Hi Dave, I'm happy to respond. By the way, I'd like to continue our discussion of the significance of 'form' on the Origins of Mind thread once things slow down here. For now, I see that you've given me another Aristotelian concept (the mean) to address. It is true that most nominally positive traits can be carried to undesirable extremes. A football-field-sized peacock tail would be most impressive, but not very healthy. But this fact will not necessarily be reflected in the peahen's preference. The peahen may continue to unconditionally prefer larger, more elaborate tails, despite the fact that they eventually become excessively burdensome to their owners and their owners' offspring. Allow me to explain. Let's go back to our original, drab population. Within this population, plumage ranges from ratty and mangy, through mediocre, to brighter and sleeker (but still extremely drab relative to a modern peacock's tail). The sleekest and brightest individuals may very well be the healthiest within the original drab population, even though they would eventually become unhealthy if their sleekness and brightness were increased without bound. Natural selection operates only on the existing range of phenotypes, and is "unaware" of the consequences of taking these characteristics to an extreme. Within the original population, the more strongly biased a female is toward brightness and sleekness, the better. Such a bias will cause her to consistently mate with the healthiest males, giving her genes the best chance of making it into future generations. There is empirical data for this kind of open-ended preference. Geese prefer sitting on a fake, soccer-ball-sized egg to a normal-sized one. Now, any genuine soccer-ball-sized goose egg has problems (not to mention the fact that it would have killed the goose to lay it), so the extreme is obviously unhealthy. But within the range of actual goose egg sizes, bigger eggs are generally more viable, so it benefits the geese to develop an open-ended preference for sitting on bigger eggs. Other studies show similar open-ended preferences for fake "mates" with exaggerated sexual characteristics. I vaguely remember a study where individuals (I think they were birds) courted fake, car-sized members of the opposite sex, as long as they had the right coloration patterns. Back to our drab birds. Once the plumage bias becomes established among females, an interesting thing happens. An unusually sleek and bright male will be reproductively more successful than his competitors, even if his sleekness and brightness are otherwise disadvantageous (in attracting predators, for example). While he my succeed in producing more offspring, the obvious question is, will the offspring themselves manage to survive and reproduce? If not, the male's sleekness and brightness did not help his genes propagate themselves. If yes, then the male's descendants will outnumber those of his competitors, and the genes for extra sleekness and brightness will eventually become fixed in the population. The key point: once the bias is established in the female population, the males have 'incentive' to evolve brighter and sleeker plumage, as long as the incremental improvement in mating success is not outweighed by the decrease in ecological success. Each additional step toward sleekness and brightness has a higher ecological cost. Sleekness and brightness increase until a point is reached where the reproductive benefit is counterbalanced by the ecological cost, and the selection pressure toward sleekness and brightness becomes zero. In economic terms, the peacocks keep "spending" on their plumage until the marginal cost of additional sleekness is equal to its marginal benefit. Note that the equilibrium point is *not* optimum for the species as a whole. Evolution does not work for the long-term benefit of the species, but rather for the short-term benefit of the genes themselves. Since your original question was phrased in terms of the mean, let's translate back into Aristotelian language. The Aristotelian mean for brightness and sleekness occupies an intermediate position on the spectrum of possible values. The entire range of *actual* brightness and sleekness in the original drab population is less than the Aristotelian mean of *possible* brightness and sleekness. As a result, the population evolves toward the Aristotelian mean, becoming brighter and sleeker. Because of the open-ended preference of the females, evolution "overshoots" the Aristotelian mean and stabilizes at an equilibrium point where brightness and sleekness are greater than the Aristotelian mean (or to be more precise, greater than the Aristotelian mean defined relative to ecological success alone). Regards, Valerievalerie
February 18, 2006
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Valerie, I think it is a stretch for SS theory to take credit for "predicting" something which is really inevitable, i.e., that the non-choosy sex will be showier. It's like saying competitors compete. "If the Creator is whimsical, why didn’t he create both peacocks and peahens with garish tails? Why didn’t he make some of the females showier even though they invest more in the offspring? Why did he follow these strange rules that match so well with evolutionary theory?" The rules are not strange at all. Animals have sex according to the best reproductive schedule for their species. This centers generally upon the female. Since the essential (often only) male role is impregnation, it is imperative that he be duped into feeling sex is a paramount good, and it would be absurd for him to be moody about it. Even if the whimsical creator had made them the same, they would not have stayed that way. The peahens would have dropped the characteristic. If the lioness were given a mane, she would soon dispense with it. It makes no sense for her to bother with it, as it is a hindrance to her role. To say that a whimisical creator could have created them the same is to say that the creator creates things that won't work. Why would the creator insert traits inharmonious with the system as it is set up?avocationist
February 18, 2006
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Valerie: You wrote: From www.peafowl.org: “After the peacock is five or six years old, the tail train will remain consistent in length and quality for the rest of the bird’s life as long as the bird remains healthy.” And yes, healthy cats do have nicer fur (fuller and shinier). Seems to me that cats mate at night. Can you make out that difference at night? More seriously, has any experiment been done to prove that this kind of selection actually takes place? You wrote: “For natural selection to work, all that’s required is that some variants be more likely to survive than others. Even a tiny advantage will cause a variant to dominate the population over time. Predation is *not* random. Individuals who are more vigilant or faster at fleeing will survive more often than their slower, less alert counterpart. And in times of food scarcity, variations can make all the difference for survival (witness Peter and Rosemary Grant’s work with finch beak sizes in the Galapagos). And sure, healthy parents don’t always produce healthy offspring, but they are more likely to do so than unhealthy parents, which is all that natural selection needs to operate.” This is simply assumed, not demonstrated. And in the case of the finches, the beak sizes arose quickly and then went back to their original size when the weather changed back. This is no more than adaptation. You know, there’s genetic load calculations that you can do. To have some trait that evolves work itself through a population requires a huge amount of finches dying. That many finches couldn’t have died in that short of a time without the entire population nearly dying off at one point. That’s not what’s observed. It is entirely more feasible to assume that the birds simply adapt their beak size to the current conditions. You can’t account for this using the mathematics of the Modern Synthesis. You wrote: “The preference for more/brighter feathers becomes widespread among the females of the population.” I wrote: “What is the ’selective pressure’ that brings this about? To be a little reckless, do the mother hens get together and talk about who had the healthiest babies, and then figure out that ‘healthy’ daddies are the trick?” You wrote: “No. Sexual attraction is largely instinctual (even in humans). The females who happen to be attracted to healthy males (based on plumage) tend to get more descendants into future generations than the ones who are attracted to unhealthy males. Over time, this means that females who prefer healthy plumage come to dominate the population.” You’re simply presuming that the females that “happen to be attracted to healthy males … tend to get more descendants”. Has that ever been tested and proven? And why go by tail-feathers? Why not make sticking out your tongue part of the mating ritual? Wouldn’t that make more sense? You wrote: “It pays them in the sense that they get their genes into future generations if their plumage is sufficiently attractive to females.” You make it sound like a “Far Side” cartoon. The peacocks are huddled around the local tavern’s bar. One peacock says to the other, “Yeah, Sarah’s really been eyeing my feathers. You know, I think that one’s going to bring me a lot of great-great grandchildren.” Peacocks can’t think like we do. They simply live and die. They don’t worry about ‘posterity’; only humans do that. You wrote: “Peafowl don’t feed their young. The chicks are capable of foraging on their own. And anyway, there are adaptations which deal with food scarcity. Some birds will forego breeding in times of food scarcity. Others will reduce the brood size by allowing the youngest chick (or chicks) to starve, thus improving the odds that the older chicks will survive.” You wrote this in response to my reply saying that it isn’t an advantage to the peacocks to have more young. But you seem to undermine your whole argument here. I don’t know if you noticed that. You’ve been arguing that NS is bring about all these changes because of variable rates of generation due to the “healthy” (colored tails) males. And you say that even the tiniest of advantages will spread. And here you’re admitting that some birds don’t even breed when food is scarce, or that they might reduce their brood size. This sounds like a much more important determinant of “great-great-grandchildren” than colored tail-feathers. I think that’s fairly clear, right? You wrote: “It *is* undirected, as far as we can tell. Being undirected is not the same as being directionless, however. Natural selection definitely “prefers” some variants over others. The direction is provided by the environment. “ You have to admit that this sure sounds like you’re saying: “Natural selection directs things along in an undirected way.” And that sort of statement, as they say, doesn’t add up, I’m afraid. You wrote: “For the female to propagate her genes, she needs to ensure that her offspring will be able to attract mates…..” I question this. You responded: “Intelligence is not necessary. Instinct is enough.” So females have an instinct to propagate her genes. Do birds know what genes are? I know that sounds facetious, silly; but, the reality is that birds have an instinct to breed—no one would deny that; yet, to say that she wants to ‘ensure that her offspring will be able to attract mates…’, well, that sounds way too anthropomorphic to pass as science for me. You wrote: “Your objection makes as much sense as saying that all geometric proofs involving circles are examples of ‘circular reasoning’.” I sort of had my tongue in my cheek when I was talking about the “feedback loop.” Valerie: I see no doubt,as you present the argument, that this is circular reasoning. Circular reasoning involves assuming as a premise part, or all, of what you propose to demonstrate. Now, in this case, what is to be demonstrated? Answer: that the colored tails of peacocks are the direct result of sexual selection. Sexual selection is selection based on the preferences of the male/female of the species for particular sexual traits in the other sex. So, we must demonstrate/prove that the colored tails of peacocks are the direct result of peahens preferring them. The argument goes something like this: A.) Some peacocks developed colored tail-feathers. B.) Peahens preferred the colored tail-feathers. C.) As a result, all peacocks have colored tail-feathers. CONCLUSION: Therefore, it’s clear that the colored tail-feathers of the peacock is the direct result of the peahens preferring them. Now, is proposition B true or false? How do we prove it one way or another? Darwinism says that the proof that B is true is that peacocks have colored tail-feathers. So, to prove that the colored plumage of peacocks is due to ‘selection’, we have to assume that the ‘selection’ of colored plumage (i.e., peahens prefer colored tail-feathers: proposition B) has already taken place. So you’re trying to ‘prove’ that which you have already ‘assumed.’ Thus, a circular argument. Valerie: In your response to Charlie J., you said that "SS theory also says that the non-choosy sex will be the one which develops the “showy” characteristics. Again, SS theory is confirmed by the fact that males tend to be showier than the females." This is 'loopy' again. If animals produce sexually, and one sex is 'showy', the other sex is, of course, going to be the 'choosy' one. What other options are there? Is the one sex going to mate with itself? So in what way is this a 'prediction'? It's a tautology again.PaV
February 18, 2006
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Valerie, I know you are already answering a number of people on this thread, and I don't want to pile on. But if you have the time, I'm puzzled about the linking of "health" and "bright plumage" in peacocks. Health is typically indicated by a normal range that includes both a maximum and minimum. Rosy cheeks are an indication of health in children, and both pale and excessively bright red cheeks indicate ill health, one by defect and the other by excess. I can see how dull, sparse fur would indicate ill health in a cat because full, shiny fur is the norm for healthy cats. But the evolutionary argument is that a peacock born with excessivley bright plumage was also the healthiest peacock. In other words, it goes against our common experience that health resides in a mean, and that both the excessive and defective conditions are unhealthy. Now our common experience is not definitive and it is possible that a peacock was once born with unprecedentedly bright plumage who was also unprecedentedly healthy. But to show that this is more than speculation against common experience, I think we need to at least show that the relationship between peacock plumage brightness and health does not reside in a mean. That is, the peacocks with the absolutely brightest plumage are also the absolutely healthiest. If that is the case, then it is certainly reasonable to conclude that peacock plumage will get brighter with every generation. I surfed around www.peafowl.org, and I couldn't find any indication that birds with tails that are excessively colored and ornamented are also excessively healthy. The only article I found about an unusual tail indicated that the unusual tail did not impair the health of the bird. It seems like peacock tails are like most other biological structures, with health that resides in a mean rather than an extreme. Cheers, Dave T.taciturnus
February 18, 2006
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Charlie, j: Rather than being a just-so story, the theory of sexual selection makes testable predictions. For example, sexual selection theory says that the choosier sex should be the sex which invests the most in the offspring. Females generally produce a few large eggs, while males produce many small sperm. On top of that, females tend to invest more time and energy after birth as well. So sexual selection theory predicts that females will generally be the choosy sex, and they are. SS theory also says that the non-choosy sex will be the one which develops the "showy" characteristics. Again, SS theory is confirmed by the fact that males tend to be showier than the females. Finally, SS theory predicts that in cases where the *males* actually invest more in the offspring than the females, *they* should be the choosy ones and the females should be the showier ones. This is borne out as well. For example, male phalaropes care for their offspring before and after hatching. The female phalaropes are the brightly colored ones, and they actively court the choosy males, just as SS theory predicts. Far from being oddities designed by a whimsical Creator, as Johnson proposes, they actually follow a quite regular pattern which is predicted by evolution. If the Creator is whimsical, why didn't he create both peacocks and peahens with garish tails? Why didn't he make some of the females showier even though they invest more in the offspring? Why did he follow these strange rules that match so well with evolutionary theory?valerie
February 18, 2006
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Hi PaV,

Some responses to your comments:

You wrote:
"Are we assuming this [that healthy birds produce more or brighter plumage than unhealthy ones]? Is there some basis for assuming this? Do healthy cats have nicer fur?"

From www.peafowl.org:
"After the peacock is five or six years old, the tail train will remain consistent in length and quality for the rest of the bird's life as long as the bird remains healthy."

And yes, healthy cats do have nicer fur (fuller and shinier).

I wrote:
"Females who happen to prefer males with more/brighter plumage are reproductively more successful, because their offspring benefit from the genes of their healthy fathers."

You wrote:
"Is there any basis to this assumption? What about the simple vagaries of life? Predation is more-or-less random; whether or not there is an abundant food-supply is a simple matter of chance. And healthy parents don’t necessarily produce healthy off-spring. So, “on average”, I would think all this gets cancelled out. So I don’t know why we’re entitled to make this assumption."

For natural selection to work, all that's required is that some variants be more likely to survive than others. Even a tiny advantage will cause a variant to dominate the population over time.

Predation is *not* random. Individuals who are more vigilant or faster at fleeing will survive more often than their slower, less alert counterparts. And in times of food scarcity, variations can make all the difference for survival (witness Peter and Rosemary Grant's work with finch beak sizes in the Galapagos). And sure, healthy parents don't always produce healthy offspring, but they are more likely to do so than unhealthy parents, which is all that natural selection needs to operate.

I wrote:
"The preference for more/brighter feathers becomes widespread among the females of the population."

You wrote:
"What is the ’selective pressure’ that brings this about? To be a little reckless, do the mother hens get together and talk about who had the healthiest babies, and then figure out that ‘healthy’ daddies are the trick?"

No. Sexual attraction is largely instinctual (even in humans). The females who happen to be attracted to healthy males (based on plumage) tend to get more descendants into future generations than the ones who are attracted to unhealthy males. Over time, this means that females who prefer healthy plumage come to dominate the population.

I wrote:
"Since the females prefer males with more/brighter plumage, it “pays” the males to evolve in that direction."

"It doesn’t pay them at all. They’re still going to die."

It pays them in the sense that they get their genes into future generations if their plumage is sufficiently attractive to females.

"And if they have more little chicks, then there’s only more mouths to feed and every prospect that they will have to go hungry feeding the little ones."

Peafowl don't feed their young. The chicks are capable of foraging on their own.
And anyway, there are adaptations which deal with food scarcity. Some birds will forego breeding in times of food scarcity. Others will reduce the brood size by allowing the youngest chick (or chicks) to starve, thus improving the odds that the older chicks will survive.

"And how do they “evolve” in that direction? I thought evolution was undirected."

It *is* undirected, as far as we can tell. Being undirected is not the same as being directionless, however. Natural selection definitely "prefers" some variants over others. The direction is provided by the environment.

"So we have to assume that the mutant genes are dominant (quite rare), have directionality (contrary to theory) and, according to Fisher’s still controversial mathematics, they have to become “fixed”. Are we now in scientific jello? What backs up all these assumptions piled up on one another?"

Dominance vs. recessiveness is a continuum, not a dichotomy. A more recessive allele takes longer to become fixed than a more dominant allele, all else being equal.

I wrote:
"For the female to propagate her genes, she needs to ensure that her offspring will be able to attract mates. In the case of her male offspring, that means they need showier plumage than the competition. Breeding with a showier male means that her male offspring will also have showier plumage and thus be able to attract females."

You wrote:
"These must be some really smart females to have figured all this out by themselves. You’re talking about animals acting with purpose. Is this really believable?"

Intelligence is not necessary. Instinct is enough. (Having said that, many animals do appear to act with conscious purpose. Even crows have been observed in the lab bending a wire to form a hook for retrieving food. See this great video (scroll down; it's on the left side of the page).

http://users.ox.ac.uk/~kgroup/tools/tools_main.shtml

You wrote:
"You called it a “feedback loop”. Doesn’t that sound “circular”?"

The loop is circular, but the reasoning behind it is not. Circuit designers use positive feedback loops all the time to produce working oscillators. Are you telling me that they're deluded in doing so?

Your objection makes as much sense as saying that all geometric proofs involving circles are examples of "circular reasoning".

Even a tiny advantage will cause a variant to dominate the population over time.
Absolutely not true. The environment is far too unpredictable. The fastest antelope is usually the first one to break a leg in a hidden ditch when the herd is in paniced flight from a predator. Survival of the fittest is a stupid tautology better stated as survival of the survivors. It's really survival of the luckiest. The antelope lucky enough to be in the middle of the herd at the time of attack is the one with the best chance of survival. -ds valerie
February 18, 2006
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Sorry: Phillip not Philipj
February 18, 2006
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"...what I find intriguing is that Darwinists are not troubled by the unfitness of the peahen's sexual taste. Why would natural selection, which supposedly formed all birds from lowly predecessors, produce a species whose females lust for males with life-threatening decorations? The peahen ought to have developed a preference for males with sharp talons or mighty wings. I don't know what creation-scientists might suppose, but it seems to me that the peacock and peahen are just the kind of creatures a whimsical Creator might favor, but that an 'uncaring mechanical process' like natural selection would never permit to develop." Philip Johnson, Darwin on Trial, pp. 30-31.j
February 18, 2006
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Does this mean little boys and girls will be born with tattoos and body piercings soon? Oh joy. I can hardly wait.

DaveScot
February 18, 2006
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1-6 Ah, just so.Charlie
February 17, 2006
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Valerie: I'll intersperse my remarks. R.A. Fisher would say the feathers came first. Here’s how it would play out, according to his theory: Sir Fred Hoyle, the famous astrophysicist, wrote a book about the "Mathematics of Evolution". He did not have kind things to say about Fisher's theory. He more or less debunks it. But, let's continue.... 1. You have a population of birds with quite ordinary plumage. So far, so good. 2. The healthiest birds, as a byproduct of their health, produce more or brighter feathers. Are we assuming this? Is there some basis for assuming this? Do healthy cats have nicer fur? 3. Females who happen to prefer males with more/brighter plumage are reproductively more successful, because their offspring benefit from the genes of their healthy fathers. Is there any basis to this assumption? What about the simple vagaries of life? Predation is more-or-less random; whether or not there is an abundant food-supply is a simple matter of chance. And healthy parents don't necessarily produce healthy off-spring. So, "on average", I would think all this gets cancelled out. So I don't know why we're entitled to make this assumption. 4. The preference for more/brighter feathers becomes widespread among the females of the population. What is the 'selective pressure' that brings this about? To be a little reckless, do the mother hens get together and talk about who had the healthiest babies, and then figure out that 'healthy' daddies are the trick? Now you have the conditions for a classic positive feedback loop: Only hypothetically. We're assuming all sorts of things that we don't know are true. 5. Since the females prefer males with more/brighter plumage, it “pays” the males to evolve in that direction. It doesn't pay them at all. They're still going to die. And if they have more little chicks, then there's only more mouths to feed and every prospect that they will have to go hungry feeding the little ones. And how do they "evolve" in that direction? I thought evolution was undirected. So we have to assume that the mutant genes are dominant (quite rare), have directionality (contrary to theory) and, according to Fisher's still controversial mathematics, they have to become "fixed". Are we now in scientific jello? What backs up all these assumptions piled up on one another? 6. For the female to propagate her genes, she needs to ensure that her offspring will be able to attract mates. In the case of her male offspring, that means they need showier plumage than the competition. Breeding with a showier male means that her male offspring will also have showier plumage and thus be able to attract females. These must be some really smart females to have figured all this out by themselves. You're talking about animals acting with purpose. Is this really believable? Steps 5 and 6 constitute the feedback loop. . . . Fisher argued that the positive feedback loop of sexual selection would continue to exaggerate the selected trait until the costs balanced the benefits. Again, his mathematics, and his assumptions, are (1) suspect, and (2)ASSUMPTIONS--how do we know that they're true? As you can see, this is not circular reasoning, because the whole process begins with the healthier males producing healthier-looking plumage. At that time the females have not yet evolved a preference for showier males. The argument is nuanced; but fallacious. You have no way of proving any of the steps. You called it a "feedback loop". Doesn't that sound "circular"? PaV
February 17, 2006
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For what it's worth, I think the preference came first, because it is widely dispersed across many species. Since males compete, females get to choose, and the males of many species are prettier - look at guppies.avocationist
February 17, 2006
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Dr. Dembski wrote: "Especially striking...is the statement “problems with this narrative have continued to accumulate” and reference to “Darwin’s central narrative.” Narrative indeed....It’s finally clear why ID isn’t welcome....: the study of narratives provides no clue to the engineering problems that biological systems pose." (Sidenote: edit "problems with the narrative" to read "problems with the 'just so' story".) Like modern NeoDarwinists, ancient Ptolemaic astronomy had a problem with its "narrative" as well, but in the end, retrogressive motions of planetary orbits were no barrier to the creative ingenuity of its defenders. The study of astronomy became NOT the study of the motions of planets, but the study of Ptolemy's *theory* of the motions or the planets: problems with the theory didn't invalidate the theory, problems merely called for further refinements of the theory. Another similarity: Budding scientists not only had to understand Ptolemy's theory, they had to *believe* Ptolemy's theory. Dissenters were called "heretics" and treated as such. See "Ptolemaic astronomy" at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ptolemaic_system Another interesting similarity to the present context: "A dissenter named Copernicus worked as a *church canon*, governor, *administrator*, *mathematician*, economist, jurist, physician and astrologer.... His formulation of how the Sun rather than the Earth is at the center of the universe...came to mark the starting point of modern astronomy...encouraging young astronomers, scientists and scholars to TAKE A MORE SKEPTICAL ATTITUDE TOWARD ESTABLISHED DOGMA." ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copernican_system )Red Reader
February 17, 2006
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PaV asks: "Here’s where the circularity comes in: highly-colored tail-feathers will not evolve until a sexual preference for them evolves. A sexual preference for highly-colored tail-feathers will not evolve until highly-colored tail-feathers evolve. Which came first: the feathers or the preference?" R.A. Fisher would say the feathers came first. Here's how it would play out, according to his theory: 1. You have a population of birds with quite ordinary plumage. 2. The healthiest birds, as a byproduct of their health, produce more or brighter feathers. 3. Females who happen to prefer males with more/brighter plumage are reproductively more successful, because their offspring benefit from the genes of their healthy fathers. 4. The preference for more/brighter feathers becomes widespread among the females of the population. Now you have the conditions for a classic positive feedback loop: 5. Since the females prefer males with more/brighter plumage, it "pays" the males to evolve in that direction. 6. For the female to propagate her genes, she needs to ensure that her offspring will be able to attract mates. In the case of her male offspring, that means they need showier plumage than the competition. Breeding with a showier male means that her male offspring will also have showier plumage and thus be able to attract females. Steps 5 and 6 constitute the feedback loop. Why doesn't it go on forever? Because there is a cost to maintaining showy plumage: a) showy plumage attracts the attention of predators as well as mates. b) showy plumage is heavy to carry around and slows the bird down. c) there is a high energy cost to producing showy plumage. Fisher argued that the positive feedback loop of sexual selection would continue to exaggerate the selected trait until the costs balanced the benefits. As you can see, this is not circular reasoning, because the whole process begins with the healthier males producing healthier-looking plumage. At that time the females have not yet evolved a preference for showier males.valerie
February 17, 2006
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Red Reader, Thank you for the clarification. It is interesting that with all the criticism of Ohio's decision to now allow critical analysis (of evolution), you have responded to my critical but honest question with the "You're not the moderator" mantra. Hmmm... I also understand that the moderator has the right to post--or delete--what he wants. It's his ballpark, he can pitch however he wants to. My assumption was that peoople include pictures to illustrate or clarify a point. His apparent intention was to communicate something in "terms I could understand." Since I didn't understand I asked. I didn't rant. Didn't call anyone names. I asked a question. So was there a point to the picture? Does it illustrate something about darwinian sexual selection?SteveB
February 17, 2006
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Oh my gosh, I think I'm going to burst out laughing again!!! SteveB wrote: Along these lines, I’m growing increasingly concerned about the stuff that gets posted here: this, referring to the ACLU as “terrorists,” or complaining about the rules employed by the Panda’s Thumb webmaster. If they fix the trackbacks to your satisfaction, is that going to advance the cause of ID? Is this the kind of stuff I need to know about if I’m to understand ID? -sb .... Steve, here's all you have to know about this site: There IS a moderator and you're not him. Next!Red Reader
February 17, 2006
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What is the selection pressure exerted upon the females to make them prefer the coloration? Is there supposed to be some correlation between being attracted to the coloration and having more progeny?Charlie
February 17, 2006
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Hi Pav, Your question on circularity is quite valid, however, I'd suggest that it's not a binary thing. (colored vs. non-colored) The scenario would depend on variation by degrees. For example, red hair in humans didn't just pop up red one day. Across the globe, I'm sure you could line up a thousand people that have brown hair varying in increasing degrees to bright orange hair. Each person side by side would have little to no variation between hair color, yet the two extreme ends would look significantly different. My personal opinion is that genetic drift would account for getting you enough red hair coloring for people to notice, and have a sexual preference for (reddish hair) Generations of sexual preference could possibly push it to the extreme where you have blazing red hair. So in the case of your circularity question, I'd guess that the color came first, but only in a much slighter degree. (i'm using red hair as an example of degrees, not sexual selection. We all know that blondes get the upper hand in that. J/K :)Fross
February 17, 2006
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Does anyone else notice that more & more Darwinian explanations are sounding a lot like mythology? The just so stories are amazingly similar to the accounts of nature attributed to the pantheistic gods of the Greeks & Romans. Just wondering.the wonderer
February 17, 2006
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Trent said: "The female preference for the coloration exists because those females that had that preference selected higher quality mates. . . . "I dont see anything circular in this." Here's where the circularity comes in: highly-colored tail-feathers will not evolve until a sexual preference for them evolves. A sexual preference for highly-colored tail-feathers will not evolve until highly-colored tail-feathers evolve. Which came first: the feathers or the preference?PaV
February 17, 2006
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Forgive my denseness, but why does pointing a gun in my face constitute “terms that I’ll understand”? Along these lines, I’m growing increasingly concerned about the stuff that gets posted here: this, referring to the ACLU as “terrorists,” or complaining about the rules employed by the Panda’s Thumb webmaster. If they fix the trackbacks to your satisfaction, is that going to advance the cause of ID? Is this the kind of stuff I need to know about if I’m to understand ID? -sbSteveB
February 17, 2006
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Hmm. That's a pretty disturbing picture. How does it apply to the post?Jack Krebs
February 17, 2006
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Populations never had anything to do with creative evolution. Like every other genetic change the changes that produced evolutionary progress occurred in the germinal line of individual organisms. To assume otherwise is pure mysticism, something Darwinians are very good at. Apparently such organisms are no longer with us. Phylogeny, like ontogeny, has also proven to be predetermined, self regulated and self terminated with inevitable extinction the counterpart to the death of the individual. Ask not for whom the bell tolls. It tolls for all of us.John Davison
February 17, 2006
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PaV- The problem is thats not what is actualy said. The female preference for the coloration exists because those females that had that preference selected higher quality mates. The coloration is very costly, and vividness and complextiy of design is proportional to more then one quality measurment of the phenotype. I dont see anything circular in this.Trent
February 17, 2006
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What do you know, a mathematical solution to an evolutionary biology phenomena. Who would have thought. I've always sensed an inherent contradiction with sexual selection. The logic goes like this: why does a peacock have such highly colorful tail-feathers? Because the female peacocks choose them? Then why do the female peacocks choose them? Because they're highly colorful. Does anyone detect a circular argument here?PaV
February 16, 2006
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