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Was Jupiter designed for terrestrial human existence?

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Descriptions of this week’s massive impact into Jupiter makes an interesting point on human existence relative to Jupiter: All Eyepieces on Jupiter After a Big Impact By DENNIS OVERBYE, New York Times July 21, 2009

Anybody get the number of that truck?

Astronomers were scrambling to get big telescopes turned to Jupiter on Tuesday to observe the remains of what looks like the biggest smashup in the solar system since fragments of the Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 crashed into the planet in July 1994.

Something — probably a small comet — smacked into Jupiter on Sunday, leaving a bruise the size of the Pacific Ocean near its south pole. Just after midnight, Australian time, on Sunday, Jupiter came into view in the eyepiece of Anthony Wesley, an amateur astronomer in Murrumbateman. The planet was bearing a black eye spookily similar to the ones left in 1994.

“This was a big event,” said Leigh Fletcher of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “In the inner solar system it would have been a disaster.”

“As far as we can see it looks very much like what happened 15 years ago,” said Brian Marsden of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, who is director emeritus of the International Astronomical Union’s Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams. The bureau issues bulletins about breaking astronomical news. . . .
Dr. Marchis said the shape of the debris splash as revealed in the Keck images suggested that whatever hit Jupiter might have been pulled apart by tidal forces from the planet’s huge gravity before it hit. In an e-mail message, he said humans should be thankful for Jupiter.

“The solar system would have been a very dangerous place if we did not have Jupiter,” he wrote. “We should thank our giant planet for suffering for us. Its strong gravitational field is acting like a shield protecting us from comets coming from the outer part of the solar system.”

So we owe our survival to Jupiter’s size and location! What are the probabilities of a Jupiter being situated outside the orbit of an Earth sized planet?

Comments
Further discussion: Jupiter: Our Cosmic Protector? DENNIS OVERBYE July 25, 2009 NYT
Hal Levison, an astronomer at the Southwest Research Institute, in Boulder, Colo., who studies the evolution of the solar system, said that whether Jupiter was menace or protector depended on where the comets came from. Lexell, like Shoemaker Levy 9 and probably the truck that just hit Jupiter, most likely came from an icy zone of debris known as the Kuiper Belt, which lies just outside the orbit of Neptune, he explained. Jupiter probably does increase our exposure to those comets, he said. But Jupiter helps protect us, he said, from an even more dangerous band of comets coming from the so-called Oort Cloud, a vast spherical deep-freeze surrounding the solar system as far as a light-year from the Sun. Every once in a while, in response to gravitational nudges from a passing star or gas cloud, a comet is unleashed from storage and comes crashing inward. Jupiter’s benign influence here comes in two forms. The cloud was initially populated in the early days of the solar system by the gravity of Uranus and Neptune sweeping up debris and flinging it outward, but Jupiter and Saturn are so strong, Dr. Levison said, that, first of all, they threw a lot of the junk out of the solar system altogether, lessening the size of this cosmic arsenal. Second, Jupiter deflects some of the comets that get dislodged and fall back in, Dr. Levison said.
----------------------- Hubble image of Jupiter impact Spaceweather.com July 25, 2009
"This July 23rd Hubble photo shows a lumpiness to the debris plume caused by turbulence in Jupiter's atmosphere," says Amy Simon-Miller of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. Based on the appearance of the impact zone, she estimates that the diameter of the impacting object was several hundred meters--i.e., several football fields wide. The force of the explosion was likely thousands of times greater than the Tunguska impact of 1908.
DLH
July 26, 2009
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Hoki, I didn't call you retarded, If you were retarded, as I have made clear, I would at least respect you! To make this issue as clear as possible, one more time I will explain. You are still trying to get past your requirement for empirical validation. Thus far all empirics are telling us our probability calculations are correct in regards to what reality is, but yet you are trying to enforce your nascent hypothesis, drawn from what I consider dubious logic, over what the empirical evidence is currently telling us! This is a direct violation of the rules of the scientific method! This is not to say you are completely wrong in your hypothesis, and that you cannot draw a valid hypothesis from your intuition of logic and then devise a test to test that hypothesis within the scientific method, but until you do as such your conjecture bears no weight within the scientific method and you have no right to try say the empirical evidence is wrong! i.e. until you can prove reality conforms to your hypothesis, it is nothing more bluster which you have tried to enforce through appeal to authority.bornagain77
July 25, 2009
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ab:
Only if its random and if any (or a very large percentage of) randomized output will “work...
I realise that there are limits to what could possibly be alive to reproduce. But if you use the assumption that there is only one path that life could have taken and do you probability calculation top-down, that hardly works in bornagain77's favor. In this case, the probability is unity.Hoki
July 25, 2009
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bornagain77:
Proportions of which powerball lotteries are laughable comparisons, and yet in some type of twisted logic none of this is suppose to matter because of some archaic passage in some dusty math book.
Yes, why would we even bother to try to draw correct conclusions from our probability calculations? Perhaps I'm too retarded to understand that?Hoki
July 25, 2009
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ROb at 46 Thanks for the link to Marks/Dembski paper and clues to atom. I will try to read that. On the 50:50 my comment did sound to flippant. What I went back to say was that the simplest case the probability is that of flipping a coin. Outside it helps, inside it doesn't. The previous post suggests that Jupiter outside has a much smaller probability than 50:50.DLH
July 24, 2009
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Nakashima at 45 Thanks for your comments. Yes I affirm your formulation on jupiter sized planet outside an earth type habitable planet. From a brief search, I found the following" The Hunt for Habitable Planets
A decade ago, when researchers first examined the diversity of Jupiter-like planets, it was shocking, recalls Charbonneau. “We expected to find gas giants in circular orbits with 12-year periods, just like Jupiter.” Instead, most whipped about their stars in just a few days, orbiting within roasting distance.
This suggests that a Jupiter sized planet outside an earth sized habitable zone has a low probability. If there are any astronomy types (or handy researchers) who can track down those papers and report back on the distributions of Jupiter sized planets, that would be most appreciated. In itself a Jupiter sized planet outside of Earth sized planet does not clearly indicate design. However when combined with all the other parameters essential to human habitation in the universe this comes with an astronomically small probability. This is much lower than the probability of an earth type among all planets (10^22) over all time (3.1*10^7 sec/year * 13 * 10^9 years = 4*10^17 sec) at the max combination rate of 1/Planck time (1/(5.3*10^-44 per sec)) gives a conventional combination of about 1 in 5*10^84. If we use 10^80 particles instead of 10^22 planets, this gives about 5*10^142. (approximate version of maximum probability resources for all the universe over all time over maximum possible rearrangement rate.) The probabilities cited above for a human habitation is so much smaller as to suggest in my mind a design inference.DLH
July 24, 2009
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ROb, I really have no clue what your perception of reality is at this moment. All I do know is that you seem to have put your understanding of math before what experimentation is showing us to be of reality, which is completely contrary to what the scientific method demands. i.e. result of experimentation holds authority over all starting hypothesis-s in the scientific method. Herb, That finding is absolutely fascinating is it not? I picked up dimensionless number from Chuck Missler's video on the subject and I am not quite sure that it is the correct adjective to use in this case.. But the term, dimensionless, was semi-appropriate to the transcendent nature of the numbers, so I stuck with it when I made the video. Here is an interesting article on Euler's number that has a bit more detail: God by the Numbers Charles Edward White http://www.christianitytoday.com/ct/2006/march/26.44.html?start=3bornagain77
July 24, 2009
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bornagain77,
Euler’s Number - God Created Mathematics - video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IEb1gTRo74
Wow---that's amazing. Did you create this video? Just one question: What's the meaning of the following sentence: "When we combine e with pi, we are introducing the oldest dimensionless number."herb
July 24, 2009
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bornagain77:
So ROb are you going to put, what I steadfastly maintain is, your incomplete understanding of reality, wrought through your understanding of math, over what reality is actually telling us through experimentation?
What is my "understanding of reality" that you're referring to?R0b
July 24, 2009
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So ROb are you going to put, what I steadfastly maintain is, your incomplete understanding of reality, wrought through your understanding of math, over what reality is actually telling us through experimentation? If so you are demanding that reality conform to your preconceived dictates and are grossly mislead in how science operates. I think Fred Hoyle had a very superior understanding of math and yet he clearly "followed the evidence" wherever it led, when he stated: A common sense interpretation of the facts suggests that a superintellect has monkeyed with physics, as well as chemistry and biology, and that there are no blind forces worth speaking about in nature. The numbers one calculates from the facts seem to me so overwhelming as to put this conclusion almost beyond question.” As well I would like to point out that there is good evidence that God "created mathematics" in the first place: Euler's Number - God Created Mathematics - video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IEb1gTRo74 This related website has the complete working out of the math of Pi and e in the Bible, in the Hebrew and Greek languages: http://www.biblemaths.com/pag03_pie/ Michael Denton - Mathematical Truths Are Transcendent And Beautiful - video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3zcJfcdAyE Proverbs 8:26-27 While as yet He had not made the earth or the fields, Or the primeval dust of the world. When He prepared the heavens, I was there, when He drew a circle on the face of the deep,bornagain77
July 24, 2009
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"Oh, and Jerry. Where are you?" In New Hampshire visiting relatives and having Lobster in Kittery when you were making your post. Actually just got back from eating the lobster at that time.jerry
July 24, 2009
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bornagain77:
A formalism of which at least rob admits he does not completely understand (I doubt hoki would be so humble to admit as such)
I don't know what you're referring to. I'm not any more humble than Hoki.R0b
July 24, 2009
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Mr DLH, If you accept my rewording of the question, then it becomes much more probable that a gas giant is outside the Earth-like planet in the habzone, simply based on relative size of the regions. I also think that most theories of Hot Jupiter formation assume they migrate inwards, a process that would destroy the Earth-like planet. So if you assume first that the Earth-like planet exists, then the Jupiter-like planet is most probably outside it. Does that count as design or mere probability?Nakashima
July 24, 2009
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I readily admit I am not sophisticated in math, and I am sure you guys "think" you are right in this matter. Yet I find it extremely strange that I can cite reference after reference of hard empirical evidence, rigorously gathered though exhaustive experimentation, that falsifies evolution in every key instance it is measured, and that also shows probabilistic hurdles of gargantuan proportions, Proportions of which powerball lotteries are laughable comparisons, and yet in some type of twisted logic none of this is suppose to matter because of some archaic passage in some dusty math book. It really is incredible that real world tests would be so quickly ignored by you guys by some reference to some formalism of math, A formalism of which at least rob admits he does not completely understand (I doubt hoki would be so humble to admit as such) ...Yet clearly if the math does not match what the real world is telling us is it not more than right to presuppose the math is either wrong or incomplete in its formulation? You bet your bottom dollar it is right to presupoose as such! From what authority do you presuppose math to have authority over empirics? Please list how many times empirics have been overruled by math! If you do think math has authority as such to dictate to real world empirics what to be in experimentation you guys are severely misguided in how science operates! If you don't believe me just ask Einstein in his experience with his "fudge factor" of general relativity. Until you guys can figure out such a simple thing as this I will continue to use my "simple probability" calculations which are derived directly from observation, declare them to all who will listen, and will continue to hold anyone who ignores empirics with such subtleness of deception, as you guys seem to be under the influence of, with severe suspicion to their intgrety of character., Thus my apology to the mentally handicapped retarded people of this world for comparing them to dogmatic atheists still stands in full force of intent.bornagain77
July 24, 2009
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I should mention that it was Atom, from this board and from the EIL, who had the insight regarding Marks and Dembski's definitions of the higher-order spaces.R0b
July 24, 2009
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DLH, I probably misinterpreted your statement. I took it that you were dismissing Nakashima's facetious answer of 50:50 on the basis of lack of evidence (and of course you would be correct to do so). According to Marks and Dembski's model, a probability distribution is selected from a higher-order distribution of distributions. The obvious question is, how do we define this higher-order distribution? They don't say explicitly, but in their latest article, section 6, they present three examples. In each of these examples, the higher-order space is defined such that the process of selecting a distribution and then selecting a point from that distribution confers a uniform distribution over the lower-order space. In other words, even if the original distribution isn't uniform, the distribution conferred by the overall two-stage process is. We could define the higher-level distribution such that the above is not true, but then the model says that there is another distribution above that one, such that the three-stage process confers a uniform distribution on the original space. Ad infinitum. According to this model, every possibility space has a uniform distribution if you define the selection event to include enough antecedents in the causal chain. Of course, Marks and Dembski never lay this out, but without this assumed model, their Law of Conservation of Information is false. Unfortunately, the model has some very obvious and fatal problems.R0b
July 24, 2009
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YOU are starting with an end-product (e.g .humans) and trying to calculate the probability of this, rather than the probability of, for example, something humanlike arising (or, for that matter something that doesn’t look like a human at all).
Only if its random and if any (or a very large percentage of) randomized output will "work" (so whats Dawkins doing if not trying to match a sequence of letters he specified in advance, does that not conflict with Dawkins view with evolution "always works"?). If its more or less deterministic and requires tremendous specificity (which is what we find is required) then I don't see why we shouldn't start top-down. If Darwinists are so inclined, they could re-order the genome randomly and see how many working genomes/machine code executable's they find as opposed to non-working ones, and if executed how long until the program/organism breaks down. My question is, what random scheme would they use before turning it into executable? Would they randomize at the bit/DNA level, statements/constructs/Genes, protein/file or multiple file level? I believe the greater you go up the ladder, the more likely you will have something functional rather then not. If I randomize statements in source code file, its more likely I will get something functional versus if I randomize each individual ASCII-subset character. If I randomize loop constructs(or a statement calling a sorting function that utilizes a loop construct), in programming I may find that since the array/vector output appeared before the sorting algorithm, then nothing was "done" according to the executable output (ie: it took actual effect but did not take any noticeable effect). How would this type of scenario fit a biological program/organism? As an exception (simplistically speaking), if I randomize the order of header files, as long as they are before main and before any class definitions then random-ordering of include statements would have no effect. There are obviously exceptions to many things; programs can handle many types of exceptions (flexible and convenient) because they have specifically designed code working in parallel to handle any offset, during compile time such as white space. So what is tolerable, what is not since the protocol seems very un-natural (utilizing digital base 4 code) is the biological compiler more or less strict then the computer one, these are important questions. Have the Darwinists answered these important questions?ab
July 23, 2009
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ROb Re 50:50 is the probability for flipping coins. If Jupiter outside is safe and inside earth's orbit is not, then that alone adds a factor of two to the calculations if not already included. I was interested in any evidence that the distribution was different from 50:50. Please clarify reference to Mark & Dembski. I am not familiar with that description.DLH
July 23, 2009
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Ah, yes. People who haven't got any arguments sometimes feel they have to resort to ad hominems at times. That's probably what their objective morals compel them to do. You are lucky to be one of the chosen ones who doesn't get moderated for this kind of behaviour. Oh, and Jerry. Where are you?Hoki
July 23, 2009
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Your right Hoki I was out of line, and I do sincerely apologize to all the mentally handicapped people who are retarded in their developmental growth for comparing you to dogmatic atheists who wouldn't know honesty if it hit them in the head. I sincerely do have utmost respect for what you are going through in this life and empathize with your struggle. Is that better now Hoki?bornagain77
July 23, 2009
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I am quite sure you are not that retarded, I will take it that you are a dogmatic atheist and as such I will trat you as such and trust nothing you have to say no matter how fancy you dress it up in proper sounding language.
Nice. Did you see that, Jerry? The rudeness of the Darwinists? Again?
That you would try to dodge overwhelming improbability by postulating something akin to any hand of cards is as likely as any other hand of cards all the while blatantly ignoring the “specificity of royal flushes” that has been defined ad naseum on this site, reveals to me that you are either an atheistic dogmatist or profoundly ignorant of the matter.
It is MORE than clear that you don't understand much of anything about probabilities. YOU are starting with an end-product (e.g .humans) and trying to calculate the probability of this, rather than the probability of, for example, something humanlike arising (or, for that matter something that doesn't look like a human at all). YOU are doing the equivalent of starting with sequence of 100,000 numbers (1-6) and claiming that it must have been designed since, at the outset, it was too improbable that that specific outcome would happen.
I looked at your probability reasoning and find it wanting since you do not consider the fact materialism postulates randomness as one of its foundational tenets. Why do you not consider this a problem.
Which probability reasoning? The one where Ross confused likelihood and posterior probabilities?
Sorry but I have been cursed at and lied to too many times by atheists and will not waste my time.
Are you saying that I have cursed and lied to you? If not, why bring it up? Are you implying something? Perhaps the atheists you have been talking to have also simply pointed out holes in your thinking?Hoki
July 23, 2009
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bornagain77, Hoki is correct. Bayes' Theorem mathematically bridges the gap between likelihood and posterior probability -- Dembski's notion of specificity does not. That's a gaping hole in Dembski's formal logic in chapter 6 of TDI, which would explain why his argument has gained no traction outside of ID circles. So ignoring Dembski's logic of "specificity" is hardly retarded. BTW, I find it strange that "specificity" has been defined ad naseum on this site, yet there still is no closed definition.R0b
July 23, 2009
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The more I look at what you wrote the more preposterous what you actually said becomes: That you would try to dodge overwhelming improbability by postulating something akin to any hand of cards is as likely as any other hand of cards all the while blatantly ignoring the "specificity of royal flushes" that has been defined ad naseum on this site, reveals to me that you are either an atheistic dogmatist or profoundly ignorant of the matter. since I am quite sure you are not that retarded, I will take it that you are a dogmatic atheist and as such I will trat you as such and trust nothing you have to say no matter how fancy you dress it up in proper sounding language. Sorry but I have been cursed at and lied to too many times by atheists and will not waste my time.bornagain77
July 23, 2009
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I looked at your probability reasoning and find it wanting since you do not consider the fact materialism postulates randomness as one of its foundational tenets. Why do you not consider this a problem. Are you a multiverse believer also?bornagain77
July 23, 2009
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Hoki , Are you a materialist? If not I am sorry for my rant. If you are please clarify materialism to a rational basis of reality, seeing as I can find none.bornagain77
July 23, 2009
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bornagain77 at #35: That's quite a rant there. What a shame that you didn't addrees my argument. I wonder why?
...Yet If Ross actually were trying to calculate the pure probabilities of humans arising, using all resources available, instead of just symbiotic geological and cosmological parameters, I can assure you that materialists have “major problems”, and it is by no means a problem for ID...
No observation is a problem for ID, you are correct about that. This does not mean that the low probability of humans arising as such is a problem for "materialism". After all, the probability that you would find yourself with the genetic makeup you do while only allowing for, say, 6000 years of human procreation is also incredibly small. You might as well be arguing that a sequence of 100,000 numbers as decided by throwing a dice is too improbable to occur by chance.
As well Hoki, For you to try to equate God with Gremlins in an attic, in this matter, shows your extreme dogmatic materialistic bias, as well as shows you have a profound ignorance to the fact materialism has no longer has coherent foundation in reality in the first place, And frankly shows you have a profound ignorance of exactly what characteristics God has in Judeo/Christianity.
Rrrright. The fact that I try to explain the difference between a likelihood and a posterior probability by using an example with gremlins means that I have a materialistic bias. You are going to have to explain that one to me (or are you seriously arguing that we should take the gremlin hypothesis seriously?). While you're at it, explain why this means that I am ignorant of the characteristics of god. Or, even better, why don't you re-read what I wrote and respond to that instead?Hoki
July 23, 2009
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Hoki, The photosynthetic/sulfate reducing part is something I put in to make the point clear that there is a lot more evidence for the earth's "terra-forming" design than what we are aware of, and from what is alluded to in Ross's paper, Yet If Ross actually were trying to calculate the pure probabilities of humans arising, using all resources available, instead of just symbiotic geological and cosmological parameters, I can assure you that materialists have "major problems", and it is by no means a problem for ID, no matter what sophistication of logical obfuscation you try to put up a smoke screen and mirrors with. For example: In Barrow and Tippler's book The Anthropic Cosmological Principle, they list ten steps necessary in the course of human evolution, each of which, is so improbable that if left to happen by chance alone, the sun would have ceased to be a main sequence star and would have incinerated the earth. They estimate that the odds of the evolution (by chance) of the human genome is somewhere between 4 to the negative 180th power, to the 110,000th power, and 4 to the negative 360th power, to the 110,000th power. Therefore, if evolution did occur, it literally would have been a miracle and evidence for the existence of God. William Lane Craig William Lane Craig - If Human Evolution Did Occur It Was A Miracle - video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUxm8dXLRpA As well Hoki, For you to try to equate God with Gremlins in an attic, in this matter, shows your extreme dogmatic materialistic bias, as well as shows you have a profound ignorance to the fact materialism has no longer has coherent foundation in reality in the first place, And frankly shows you have a profound ignorance of exactly what characteristics God has in Judeo/Christianity. Or to put it more clearly for you, as a chaplain once said to an atheist student, "Tell me about the god you don't believe in, I most likely don't believe in that god either" To bring the point home to your heart, If you want to defend your materialistic philosophy I suggest you first establish a foundation for materialism in reality in which it may be considered a legitimate philosophy.bornagain77
July 23, 2009
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sparc @ 5
What do you get when you combine an obese John waters film actor/actress with a door-to-door salesman?
Do you intend to suggest that the result contains FSCI?
CannuckianYankee @ 31
Spark, “Do you intend to suggest that the result contains FSCI?” LOL - no. BTW - the answer is “A divine foot in the door.” Bad, I know.
But that is FSCI and FCSI is a constant. Thus, KF could reduce any of his comments to three letters of which the first is capitalized. It is Him.sparc
July 22, 2009
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Interestingly, while the photo-synthetic bacteria were reducing greenhouse gases and producing oxygen, and metal, which would be of benefit to modern man, “sulfate-reducing” bacteria were also producing their own natural resources which would be very useful to modern man.
So he is even trying to calculate the probability of humans arising. Wow. Ross has a problem. For each of his probability calculations, he is is giving a probabilistic value of an observation given the there was no ID involved [Pr(Observation,~ID)]. Multiplying all these probabilities togeather, he then draws the conclusion that the Pr(~ID,all observations) is virtually impossibly small. His mistake is that he has switched tactics mid-breath. Calculations of Pr(observation,hypothesis) does not tell you much about Pr(hypothesis,observation). Ross is confused by what in bayesianism is known as "likelihood" and "posterior probabilities". The philosopher Elliott Sober used a good example to illustrate the differences between these two terms: Observation: There is a noise coming from the attic. Hypothesis: There are gremlins bowling in the attic. The likelihood Pr(observation,hypothesis) is really high, for if you have gremlins bowling in your attic, you can pretty much be sure that there will be noise. The posterior probability Pr(hypothesis,observation), however is pretty small. Without even trying to do a calculation or even checking upstairs, one can pretty safely say that the noise from the attic is not due to the activity of bowling gremlins.Hoki
July 22, 2009
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90DegreeAngel, I should clarify: my belief is that all raw material in the universe was intentionally created. That is my belief, and I have no proof that it is so. However, the fine-tuning of our universe, particularly as we can observe in our own galaxy compels me to accept that there is some purposeful design behind the arrangement of the planets in order for life to exist on our planet. That is something that we can detect. The only other alternative [which I mentioned in an earlier post] is a multiverse scenario - but we have no evidence for such a hypothesis.CannuckianYankee
July 22, 2009
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