Intelligent Design

We Need to Strike a Balance

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This short read on the balance between shutting down the economy and efforts to fight COVID 19 seems right to me.

Yes, continue suppression for another couple weeks. But use this time to prepare for a shift to mitigation, meaning the resumption of normalcy for most Americans. We simply can’t go on living like this forever.

13 Replies to “We Need to Strike a Balance

  1. 1
    john_a_designer says:

    We all need to understand and keep in mind what “flattening the curve” means. If you have been paying attention to the daily White House and governor Cuomo’s New York Stated briefings this is something their medical experts have been preaching or at least alluding to every day.

    Here is a brief summary of the concept:

    https://healthblog.uofmhealth.org/sites/consumer/files/2020-03/Coronavirus_flattening_curve_1.jpg

    If you look at the image above, you can see two curves – two different versions of what might happen in the United States, depending on next steps.

    The tall, skinny curve is bad – it means that a lot of people will get sick at once, in a short period of time because we don’t take enough steps to prevent the virus from spreading from person to person.

    Most people won’t get sick enough to need a hospital. But those who do could overwhelm the number of beds and care teams that our nation’s hospitals have available.

    https://healthblog.uofmhealth.org/wellness-prevention/flattening-curve-for-covid-19-what-does-it-mean-and-how-can-you-help

    In other words, if we don’t flatten the curve here in the U.S. and do so quickly the number of COVID-19 cases could very quickly could overwhelm our medical system which would mean that more people would die than normally would really need to because they couldn’t get the care they needed.

    Of course there is another balance that will need to be addressed at some point: how much damage do you allow to the economy? If we allow business shut downs to go on too long that could cause irreparable long term damage to the economy along with civil unrest, an increase of crime and possibly famine etc. It could even spawn other pandemics. How long is too long? That is a question that we should be concerned about.

    One other thing we need to keep in mind is that there hot spots where we absolutely do need lock down quarantine and disaster type assistance like NYC and the surrounding metropolitan area. However, there is no reason to enact one-size-fits-all draconian standards nationwide. Being prudent we need continue to practice common sense things like social distancing etc. but there probably are or at least soon will be geographical regions of the U.S. where we can allow more economic activity to start up again. But getting “back to normal” is still probably a long ways off for everyone. We need to be realistic which means to be informed.

  2. 2
  3. 3
    TAMMIE LEE HAYNES says:

    1. We will be ready to start back up when the number of new cases begins to drop. That is apt to be in less than 2 weeks, Italy may be there right now, based on the data from the last few days
    https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

    2.) We will not be able to return to normal. Given its infection rate and danger, we will still need strong controls until the disease is no longer dangerosu, whether by treatments, vacination, or ultimately slow widespread infection and immunity.

    3) We will need be able to play wack-a-mole with corona virus. For that we will need data to rapidly identify a resurgence, and then rapidly tightening appropriate restrictions again. That is what the Chinese and Koreans are doing now.

    4) We will need the data to identify which behavior and lifestyles are most prone to infection. One piece of data we have is that the infection (cases per 1 million people) is 5 times greater in the metro New York area than in the Boston area and about ten times more than in LA+San Francisco, Albany and Buffalo areas. We need to know what about the New York area caused it to have such a high infection rate.
    My personal guess is mass transit. People in New York ride the subway and commuter rail, on a per capita basis 5 times more often than Chicago, and 10 times for LA and SF. If I’m right maybe we need to keep the subways closed. Maybe airplanes and Amtrak too.
    Anyhow we need to find out

  4. 4
    polistra says:

    @tammie: “Prone to infection” is the wrong variable.

    When a virus is in a community, EVERYONE is infected.

    The important variable is what you do with it once you get it. The vast majority of people, even when their body is weak enough to get noticed medically, shake it off. In the US, the most recent figure is 1.5% of the “confirmed cases” die. Those “confirmed cases” are already serious.

    (Figures from RCS:https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/)

    Normal public health, before this panic, understood the distinction. Old-fashioned public health tried to stop the virus from moving between COMMUNITIES by restricting travel. We didn’t do that because globalism forbids it, and specifically because WHO, serving globalism, forbids it.

    The current set of rules assumes MECHANISTICALLY that people are inanimate passive receptacles without the tremendously complex and internally intelligent immune system. The result of these rules is that our immune system doesn’t get a chance to do its job with the normal initial small doses.

  5. 5
    BobRyan says:

    The basis for shutting down business and quarantine are based on purposeful lies. It’s easier to scare people with science fiction than simply state the truth. Influenza is a more lethal virus than COVID. This is SARS 2, which politicians and the press refuse to say. They call it coronavirus, as if coronavirus were a singular virus. Anyone who believes this is clearly an idiot who hasn’t taken so much as a minute to do any research.
    If we were dealing with real leaders, instead of power grabbing whore-mongers, the politicians would have said from the start that this is SARS 2. COVID-19 is from the same family as COVID-2, which means the results in the human population will be similar to the SARS outbreak almost 20 years ago.
    The media and politicians refuse to call it SARS, since that may cause people to question why it’s being treated differently this time around.
    No state can put undue pressure on interstate commerce for any reason. There is nothing in the US Constitution that allows for the Commerce Clause to be violate. There is no exceptions in case of panic. Governors are in an open state of economic rebellion and believe people will simply do what they are told without any negative impacts at all.
    Children have nowhere to go, since all the places they would otherwise find use of their time is shut down. Children have been sneaking out of houses for a very long time and tend to find destructive means to occupy their time. Increased criminal activity always occurs when school is not in session.
    Adults are going to have problems of their own. The places they go to blow off steam, such as a bar, are no longer accessible. There are going to be tempers flaring before long, if it hasn’t happened already. With no means of unwinding, there are going to be increased incidents of violence in the homes.
    Politicians are feeding people fear and that fear is a powerful tool, but it is based on lies.

  6. 6
    BobRyan says:

    In December of last year, Dr. Li of Wuhan City discovered clusters of older people dying from pneumonia like symptoms. Since the ages were not more diverse, he believed it to be a resurgence of SARS. When he told his colleagues they harassed him. The police forced him to sign a paper stating he had lied.
    Since SARS is difficult to detect due to the similarities of the flu, it had gone unnoticed for quite some time. COVID-19, from the same family as COVID-2 (SARS), most likely popped up in October and spread throughout the world before it was ever discovered. Since no one was testing for it, there’s a strong chance that a large number of people who thought they had the flu, actually had SARS 2.
    We know SARS is about as contagious as influenza, but not as deadly. What people should be asking themselves is why the media and politicians are refusing to call COVID-19 SARS 2? Why are they calling it the coronavirus, when coronavirus is a classification for several viruses?

  7. 7
    orthomyxo says:

    Please stop making stuff up, it’s not very helpful.

  8. 8
    JVL says:

    BobRyan: We know SARS is about as contagious as influenza, but not as deadly.

    From https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#comparison

    For comparison, the case fatality rate with seasonal flu in the United States is less than 0.1% (1 death per every 1,000 cases).

    Mortality rate for SARS was 10%, and for MERS 34%.

  9. 9
    BobRyan says:

    JVL
    Influenza kills a wider range of ages than this current strain of SARS. Coronavirus is not a singular virus, but something used for a host of viruses. Perhaps a virologist in the UK knows a little something about this particular strain of SARS.
    Being from the same family of viruses is important. Science Alert released an article recently which had some interesting insight from Ian Jones, a virologist at the University of Reading in the UK. He was quoted as saying, “In essence, it’s a version of SARS that spreads more easily but causes less damage.”
    https://www.sciencealert.com/genetic-analysis-shows-wuhan-coronavirus-is-similar-to-sars
    Let me type part of that out for you again. According to a virologist, one of those people who actually study viruses, he says this is a version of SARS that is less damaging than what happened 20 years ago.
    There is always the leading physician in Kiryas Yoel, Dr. Zelenko who said, “99% of you will be fine. Just wait, don’t have panic… The only people that need treatment are those that have shortness of breath, or those that are in the high-risk category (over the age of 60, people that are immuno-compromised, people with cancer, diabetes, heart disease, kidney disease, etc.”
    https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/general/1841896/watch-this-dr-zelenko-has-message-for-99-of-people-you-gotta-relax.html
    What kind of data are we getting from Italy? Bloomberg recently reported about a study done by Italy’s national health authorities. Italy is the country politicians and media point to as an example of what’s to come to the United States, without mentioning Italy has a much older average age of population than the United States. “More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions… The average age of those who’ve died from the virus in Italy is 79.5. As of March 17, 17 people under 50 had died from the disease. All of Italy’s victims under 40 have been males with serious existing medical conditions.”
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says
    Only 17 people under 50 have died in Italy. So what’s the justification for governments reacting to SARS, without actually calling it SARS?

  10. 10
    Jim Thibodeau says:

    “Let me type part of that out for you again. According to a virologist, one of those people who actually study viruses, he says this is a version of SARS that is less damaging than what happened 20 years ago.”

    Yes, because that version of SARS killed 10% of people who got it, but only killed 800 people. This one has infected 500 times more people, and it’s still accelerating. What is wrong with your cabeza?

    “Only 17 people under 50 have died in Italy.”

    35% of the US population is over 50. My mom is over 50. My uncle Bobby is over 50. What is wrong with you?

    You need a new hobby. Misinforming people is a bad one.

  11. 11
    Truthfreedom says:

    @10 Jim Thibodeau

    Yes, because that version of SARS killed 10% of people who got it

    Do you know the number of asymptomatics/ subclinical patients?

  12. 12
    BobRyan says:

    Truthfreedom @ 11

    I guess believes everyone who got SARS 20 years ago was tested, regardless of showing symptoms. He lacks the basic understanding that most people who got SARS, as in over 90% of the population did not show any symptoms. When a virologist says this version of SARS is more contagious, but less harmful, he doesn’t seem to understand what that means.
    Jim Thibodeau, you are the one misinformed and you really do need to do some homework and let the grownups chat. Those under 50 had serious medical preconditions prior to death. I know you want this to be the Spanish flu, but it is far from it. Fear works for those with little intellect that need to be told to duck and cover in the event of nuclear attack.

  13. 13
    Truthfreedom says:

    @12 Bob Ryan

    I guess he (Jim Thibodeau) believes everyone who got SARS 20 years ago was tested, regardless of showing symptoms.

    Most naturalist are scientifically illiterate. And lack basic logic/ reasoning skills.

    JimThibodeau, you are the one misinformed and you really do need to do some homework and let the grownups chat.

    He is the QM guy who can not explain QM. Let alone epidemiology/ biology 🙂

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