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Where is the difference here?

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Since my Cornell conference contribution has generated dozens of critical comments on another thread, I feel compelled to respond. I hope this is the last time I ever have to talk about this topic, I’m really tired of it.

Here are two scenarios:

1. A tornado hits a town, turning houses and cars into rubble. Then, another tornado hits, and turns the rubble back into houses and cars.

2. The atoms on a barren planet spontaneously rearrange themselves, with the help of solar energy and under the direction of four unintelligent forces of physics alone, into humans, cars, high-speed computers, libraries full of science texts and encyclopedias, TV sets, airplanes and spaceships. Then, the sun explodes into a supernova, and, with the help of solar energy, all of these things turn back into dust.

It is almost universally agreed in the scientific community that the second stage (but not the first) of scenario 1 would violate the second law of thermodynamics, at least the more general statements of this law (eg, “In an isolated system, the direction of spontaneous change is from order to disorder” see footnote 4 in my paper). It is also almost universally agreed that the first stage of scenario 2 does not violate the second law. (Of course, everyone agrees that there is no conflict in the second stage.) Why, what is the difference here?

Every general physics book which discusses evolution and the second law argues that the first stage of scenario 2 does not violate the second law because the Earth is an open system, and entropy can decrease in an open system as long as the decrease is compensated by increases outside the Earth. I gave several examples of this argument in section 1, if you can find a single general physics text anywhere which makes a different argument in claiming that evolution does not violate the second law, let me know which one.

Well, this same compensation argument can equally well be used to argue that the second tornado in scenario 1 does not violate the second law: the Earth is an open system, tornados receive their energy from the sun, any decrease in entropy due to a tornado that turns rubble into houses and cars is easily compensated by increases outside the Earth. It is difficult to define or measure entropy in scenario 2, but it is equally difficult in scenario 1.

I’ll save you the trouble: there is only one reason why nearly everyone agrees that the second law is violated in scenario 1 and not scenario 2: because there is a widely believed theory as to how the evolution of life and of human intelligence happened, while there is no widely believed theory as to how a tornado could turn rubble into houses and cars. There is no other argument which can be made as to why the second law is not violated in scenario 2, that could not equally well be applied to argue that it is not violated in scenario 1 either.

Well, in this paper, and every other piece I have written on this topic, including my new Bio-Complexity paper , and the video below, I have acknowledged that, if you really can explain scenario 2, then it does not violate the basic principle behind the second law. In my conclusions in the Cornell contribution, I wrote:

Of course, one can still argue that the spectacular increase in order seen on Earth is consistent with the underlying principle behind the second law, because what has happened here is not really extremely improbable. One can still argue that once upon a time…a collection of atoms formed by pure chance that was able to duplicate itself, and these complex collections of atoms were able to pass their complex structures on to their descendents generation after generation, even correcting errors. One can still argue that, after a long time, the accumulation of genetic accidents resulted in greater and greater information content in the DNA of these more and more complex collections of atoms, and eventually something called “intelligence” allowed some of these collections of atoms to design cars and trucks and spaceships and nuclear power plants. One can still argue that it only seems extremely improbable, but really isn’t, that under the right conditions, the influx of stellar energy into a planet could cause atoms to rearrange themselves into computers and laser printers and the Internet.

Of course, if you can come up with a nice theory on how tornados could turn rubble into houses and cars, you can argue that the second law is not violated in scenario 1 either.

Elizabeth and KeithS, you are welcome to go back into your complaints about what an idiot Sewell is to think that dust spontaneously turning into computers and the Internet might violate “the basic principle behind the second law,” and how this bad paper shows that all of the Cornell contributions were bad, but please first give me another reason, other than the one I acknowledged, why there is a conflict with the second law (or at least the fundamental principle behind the second law) in scenario 1 and not in scenario 2? (Or perhaps you suddenly now don’t see any conflict with the second law in scenario 1 either, that is an acceptable answer, but now you are in conflict with the scientific consensus!)

And if you can’t think of another reason, what in my paper do you disagree with, it seems we are in complete agreement!!

[youtube 259r-iDckjQ]

Comments
PaV
What is the “null” that neo-Darwinism assumes? I would think it would be exactly the same.
It would depend on the specific hypothesis. But for natural selection in a population, for instance, your null might be "random walk" aka "drift". But you'd still have to compute your expected distribution under the null very carefully.Elizabeth B Liddle
July 9, 2013
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PaV, Evolution is not purely random. It includes randomness, but it also has non-random components. I explained this to kairosfocus a few days ago:
KF,
I used the known relationship from Info to probabilities to infer the relevant probabilities based on non-intelligent stochastic processes… I took time to go back to the rot of the situation — something studiously dodged above, and ground the fact that under abiotic circumstances we normally see racemic forms of organic molecules formed.
Whether we are talking about evolution or OOL makes no difference. Pure chance and design do not exhaust the possibilities. Evolution is obviously more than pure chance since selection is nonrandom. But OOL is also nonrandom, because chemistry is not the random assembly of atoms into molecules. CH4 is a possible molecule; CH6 isn’t. Chemistry involves nonrandom rules and very strong nonrandom electrical forces. You can’t model it with a flat distribution.
Blind statistics based on biases will lead to gibberish with high reliability…
True, and that’s a pretty accurate assessment of your argument.
Now as for what the chance based hyps are, obviously they are blind search mechanisms, if design is excluded…
Untrue. Neither evolution nor OOL is a blind search. Blind search is when you pick search points completely randomly out of the entire search space, then turn around and do the same thing again. In evolution, by contrast, you start from wherever you are in the search space and search only those areas that are within the reach of mutation — a tiny subset of the entire search space. If any of those small areas contains a viable configuration, then you repeat the process, starting from that configuration and searching only the tiny subset of the search space that is reachable from it by mutation. It’s highly nonrandom and nothing like a true blind search, though there is a random component to it. OOL is the same. You don’t pick a spot in the search space by taking a large number of atoms at random and blindly throwing them together, then repeating the process. You start from whatever molecules you already have, and you see which tiny portions of the search space you can reach from there. Then you repeat the process. There’s randomness involved, but you are not searching the entire space — only a tiny subset. All of your emphasis on the gargantuan size of the search space is therefore misplaced. It’s not the overall size of the space that matters, but the size of the space being searched at each step.
Now as to specifics, it is well known that evolutionary mechanisms warranted from empirical grounds relate to chance variations at mutation level and at expression and organisation level…
Mutations are random with respect to fitness. Selection isn’t.
And as doe WR400?s demand that I identify the contents of H, that is funny, it is an implicit admission of absence of empirically warranted mechanisms.
He’s asking you to enumerate the contents of H because it is apparent that you have neglected to include anything but pure chance. The fact that you won’t answer his question is an implicit admission that you cannot justify your CSI and P(T|H) values.
In any case the info to antilog transformation step says in effect that per the statistics [especially redundancy in proteins and the like that reflect their history and however much of chance processes have happened, and whatever survival filtering happened that is traced in the statistics] the information content implies that BLIND processes capable of such statistics will face a probabilistic hurdle of the magnitude described.
Evolution and OOL are blind, but not blind in the way you are using the term above. See my remarks above on why evolution and OOL are not blind searches.
keiths
July 8, 2013
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KF @ 347: I told you already that I have said all I have to say on that matter. We disagree, as often happens. The best I can do in line with my own ethical judgment is to repeat my open invitation to post your own views on my blog. I remain in hope that we can eventually put this disagreement behind us, even if we cannot agree.Elizabeth B Liddle
July 8, 2013
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Since no one has commented re my earlier post, it would appear that I will have to be more direct in what I'm saying. "Remember, man, that thou art dust, and unto dust you shall return." OK. What does this mean in the context of the 2LoT? This. For human life to continue, work must be done so as to not allow the 2nd LoT to increase our 'entropy'; that is, to "rust." We call it basal metabolism, which keeps our body temperature around 98.7 F. When we die, our body temperature assumes the ambient temperature. And, if left alone, our bodies begin to rot. And, if left alone long enough---let's say, buried underground---then only the skeleton will remain, the other soft tissue becoming 'dust.' So, obviously, 'life' and the 2nd LoT are opposed to one another. And for 'life' to have formed, then some kind of 'work' had to be done so as to overcome the effects of the 2nd Law. Who did that work? What did that work? Without that work, our basal temperature would be ambient. This should be proof enough that the evolution of life---here we're talking OOL---and the 2nd Law, are opposites. You can nitpick all you want, but facts are facts. And when you die, the 2nd Law takes over. The rest is easily inferred.PaV
July 8, 2013
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keiths:
We know that the UPD doesn’t apply to evolution. Simple example: Under Darwinian evolution, are the genes for black polar bears equiprobable with the genes for white polar bears? Obviously not. Selection is non-random.
And what about Kimura's "neutral theory", or, what about "evo-devo", where NS is only minimally important, whereas neutral drift is considered the more important phenomena; then, you're dealing with a UPD are you not? So how did life get started if selection is impossible prior to the replication made possible by it? P.S. I will read your reply, but will likely not respond to your reply since I think the discussion could go on interminably.PaV
July 8, 2013
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Elizabeth:
It’s assuming “random independent draw” as the null that is the problem.
What is the "null" that neo-Darwinism assumes? I would think it would be exactly the same.
I do think it’s fairly useless in its current form, and will remain so until the ID community abandons this insistence that they can detect ID from a pattern only, in the absence of any specific hypothesis about how that pattern might have been generated.
But we have a specific hypothesis: a designer is responsible for the 'pattern.' Likewise, neo-Darwinism tells us that 'pattern' came about via chance happeninings. If, then, you want to raise the notion that some 'non-random' agency is at work, 'helping' to generate the 'pattern,' then the shoe is on the other foot: what evidence do you have that such an agency exists? Or are you just assuming some unsee-able, unknowable agency, which, then, becomes a sort of "Darwin-of-the-gaps" strategy? The most important answer here is to the first question: what does neo-Darwinism accept as the null hypothesis?PaV
July 8, 2013
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Okay, cantor, I jumped through your flaming hoops. Now will you tell us how any of this is relevant to evolution and the second law?keiths
July 8, 2013
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OK, Lizzie, close your eyes so we don't spoil your dentist visit. cantor asks...
Now, what is the probability that X will generate Macrostate1?
...with 'X' and 'Macrostate1' defined as follows:
Generative process X: randomly select a group of 75 different people from a roomful of 200 men and 100 women. Macrostate1: the group contains exactly 25 women.
The probability of getting Macrostate1 is equal to the number of ways of getting Macrostate1 divided by the number of ways of selecting 75 different people. The number of ways of selecting 75 different people from a group of 300 is simply Comb(300,75) where Comb(x,y) is given by the ubiquitous formula x!/(y!(x - y)!. Meanwhile, the number of ways of getting Macrostate1 (exactly 25 women) is equal to the number of distinct ways of picking 25 women from among the 100 women in the population, times the number of distinct ways of picking 50 men from among the 200 men in the population. More compactly, Comb(100,25) x Comb(200,50). So the probability of Macrostate1 is equal to Comb(100,25) x Comb(200, 50) / Comb(300,75). Plug in the numbers (thank God for calculators, so to speak) and if I've done the calculation right, you get 2.42519269e+23 x 4.53858377e+47 / 9.79582752e+71 or a probability of a little over 11%. OK, Lizzie, you can open your eyes now. :)keiths
July 8, 2013
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kairosfocus, Your comment is ridiculous.keiths
July 8, 2013
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re: KS @ 344 Go ahead. I'll be away for a couple hours.cantor
July 8, 2013
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Dr Liddle: It has been quote clear for some time that you have been pushing ideological talking points backed by willful obtuseness and backed up by enabling slander. Sadly, all of that has been repeatedly shown; it is not mere empty berating. Perhaps, you may now be willing to make a positive change and also correct what you have been enabling, which would be welcome. If so, show it be deeds, not the projection of a smiley-faced rhetorical stance that covers enabling of slander hosted on your blog. In the meanwhile, with all due respect, I can only draw the conclusion that you are an ideologue here to push an agenda; not a genuinely fair participant in a give and take discussion on the merits. Your sustained actions in the teeth of many opportunities to do better have taken that option off the table. KFkairosfocus
July 8, 2013
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Broken link in my previous comment. Here's the correct link.keiths
July 8, 2013
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Under Darwinian evolution, are the genes for black polar bears equiprobable with the genes for white polar bears?
Darwinian evolution can't explain bears. That is the whole point. Also polar bears' skin is black. The fur is transparent and just appears white. Do geneticists even know what genes code for that feature?Joe
July 8, 2013
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cantor,
Now, what is the probability that X will generate Macrostate1?
Do I have your permission to respond, Your Highness?keiths
July 8, 2013
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Now, what is the probability that X will generate Macrostate1?
No cheating.cantor
July 8, 2013
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KS@341: It’s true that you’re more likely to get a sample with the same ratio as the population than you are to get one that is off by one, or one that is off by two, etc. However, that doesn’t mean that the probability of getting a sample with the same ratio as the population is close to 1. Far from it.
KS is correct. (Did I say that??) Now, what is the probability that X will generate Macrostate1?cantor
July 8, 2013
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Alan, It's true that you're more likely to get a sample with the same ratio as the population than you are to get one that is off by one, or one that is off by two, etc. However, that doesn't mean that the probability of getting a sample with the same ratio as the population is close to 1. Far from it.keiths
July 8, 2013
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cantor,
And since you seem to have some influence over KS, would you please ask him to stop pestering me about whether or not my post was “relevant”.
Get your facts straight. The last time I "pestered" you about the relevance of your example was 17 hours ago.keiths
July 8, 2013
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Have you thought about what it would take to actually get an answer doing it this way? Try it.
Let's make it clearer. The problem can be illustrated as two different coloured balls in a bag and using a scoop to remove a representative sample. Given a homogeneous mixture and a representative sample, the likelihood is that the sample will have the same ratio of black to red as the contents of the bag. Similarly a sample of two isotopes of a gas in a container. Sample it and you will find the same ratio. So given a homogenous mix and a representative sample, approaching 1.Alan Fox
July 8, 2013
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EBL @ 335 wrote: Ah, cantor, you raise a point I think is crucial (and it’s a point I keep banging on about)!:
What is the probability that X will generate Macrostate1?
What the answer will tell you, of course, is the probability of “macrostate 1? given random selection. It’s SO important not to divorce a probability estimate from the generative process that is assumed to have generated it. If we observe an arrangement that is improbable under Generative process X, then we can confidently reject Generative process X. But that does NOT mean that macrostate1 is also improbable under generative processes Y and Z, as I’m sure you will agree.
We agree up to this point. But stand down please, you are getting way ahead of me. And since you seem to have some influence over KS, would you please ask him to stop pestering me about whether or not my post was "relevant".cantor
July 8, 2013
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PaV :
What mechanisms have been tested?
Natural selection, some OoL hypotheses, mechanisms of heritable variance generation.
And how do they rule out the design inference?
They don't! That's my point! That's why I said
therefore we cannot infer design.
I did not say: "therefore we can rule out design". What I'm saying is that ID arguments that say : "Evolution is too improbable, therefore design" are invalid. Equally so is the argument that says "evolution perfectly possible thefore no design". PaV
I’ve read that when mathematicians don’t know what the probability distribution is for a particular set of events, that they assume the uniform probability distribution. So how is Dembski’s use of the UPD wrong, then?
The UPD is fine, it's computing the probability distribution that is problematic. And mathematicians may well "assume a uniform probability distribution" but empirical scientists certainly don't and shouldn't! I get cross with my students when they assume normality without testing their data to see if it justifies that assumption! And, specifically, rejecting a null without having computed the probability under that null is a prime way for papers to get rejected at peer-review! Which is why so often these days people use bootstrap algorithms, so as to generate a realistic probability distribution for their null, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
And doesn’t your argument simply become: “Well, we don’t know what the probability distribution is, and we’ll probably never know what it is, so ID is completely useless”?
I do think it's fairly useless in its current form, and will remain so until the ID community abandons this insistence that they can detect ID from a pattern only, in the absence of any specific hypothesis about how that pattern might have been generated. Dembski's null hypothesis testing, on which his CSI is based, is indeed, in my view, useless. Other approaches are perfectly possible, in my view.
The amount of error in using a uniform probability distribution to analyze DNA code, is very minor. Holding onto such picayune uncertainties is, IMHO, “feigned ignorance.”
I don't have any problem in assuming a uniform distribution for codons, for instance, and in any case, the true distribution can be computed from the data. It's assuming "random independent draw" as the null that is the problem.
No, evolutionary theory calls ID “creationism” and says it’s no more than religion.
Some "evolutionists" may,but that is not a conclusion that can be drawn from evolutionary theory. On the other hand it might well be drawn from the posts on this blog, where atheism is often equated with "Darwinism"!
Indeed, ID not only “rules in” ‘design’, but is based on the ‘design inference.’ And, as Meyer points out in Signature in the Cell, it has the most explanatory power among any suggestions regarding OOL. And now in Darwin’s Doubt, Meyer points out that it is the best explanation for the Cambrian Explosion.
Well, I disagree, but I will grant you that the "Irreducible Complexity" argument has a smidgeon more going for it thatn CSI. At least it seeks to reject a null hypothesis that is actually about evolution. I haven't got to the end of Darwin's Doubt yet, but I am certainly not impressed so far! Anyway, good to talk to you again! Thanks for your response, even if we disagree!Elizabeth B Liddle
July 8, 2013
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PaV,
So how is Dembski’s use of the UPD [uniform probability distribution] wrong, then?
We know that the UPD doesn't apply to evolution. Simple example: Under Darwinian evolution, are the genes for black polar bears equiprobable with the genes for white polar bears? Obviously not. Selection is non-random.keiths
July 8, 2013
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Ah, cantor, you raise a point I think is crucial (and it's a point I keep banging on about)!:
What is the probability that X will generate Macrostate1?
What the answer will tell you, of course, is the probability of "macrostate 1" given random selection. It's SO important not to divorce a probability estimate from the generative process that is assumed to have generated it. If we observe an arrangement that is improbable under Generative process X, then we can confidently reject Generative process X. But that does NOT mean that macrostate1 is also improbable under generative processes Y and Z, as I'm sure you will agree. And if Y and Z do not violate the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics, and macrostate1 is probable given generative processes Y and Z, generative process Y and Z will be a contenders as the cause of macrostate1. Do we agree thus far?Elizabeth B Liddle
July 8, 2013
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Ellizabeth: Thank you for a straight-forward and honest answer. However,....
All we are saying is that we don’t know what the likelihood is, but we know that many of the mechanisms proposed have been tested, therefore we cannot infer design.
What mechanisms have been tested? And how do they rule out the design inference? I'm completely lost here.
It is Dembski et al who are saying “we do know what the likelihood is, and it is too small to be plausible, therefore we can infer design.
And this gets us back to 'probability distributions,' doesn't it? I've read that when mathematicians don't know what the probability distribution is for a particular set of events, that they assume the uniform probability distribution. So how is Dembski's use of the UPD wrong, then? And doesn't your argument simply become: "Well, we don't know what the probability distribution is, and we'll probably never know what it is, so ID is completely useless"? This is what I mean about your use of an "argument from ignorance." Heavens, we know that nucleotide bases don't show any chemical preference in bonding; i.e., per Meyer's "Signature in the Cell," that there is very little difference between the frequencies of A,T,C and G. A uniform PD is certainly not that far off the mark. And given the fact that probability distributions are developed to come up with better evaluations of various kinds of probabilistic events, illustrates that there is no mathematical 'precision' when dealing with such events. Nevertheless, worthwhile answers are arrived at. Heavens, just think about confidence intervals when it comes to standard biological field experiments. We're always dealing with some margin of error. The amount of error in using a uniform probability distribution to analyze DNA code, is very minor. Holding onto such picayune uncertainties is, IMHO, "feigned ignorance." You know: "You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink."
Evolutionary theory does not rule out Design. ID rules it in.
No, evolutionary theory calls ID "creationism" and says it's no more than religion. [You may be this open-minded, but there's a whole hosts of others who would willingly put a knife into an IDist if the law allowed.] Indeed, ID not only "rules in" 'design', but is based on the 'design inference.' And, as Meyer points out in Signature in the Cell, it has the most explanatory power among any suggestions regarding OOL. And now in Darwin's Doubt, Meyer points out that it is the best explanation for the Cambrian Explosion. And your reason for rejecting this 'inference' is simply because we don't know what probability distribution is actually in play? Again, "feigned ignorance." Let's face it, when we're at the extremal end of the tail of ANY probability distribution, they all LOOK THE SAME! I.e., it looks like a flat line. So who cares what it looks like when it starts to spike up! It's really unimportant. The total probability density has to add up to 1.0---who cares about how, exactly, it gets to 1.0??PaV
July 8, 2013
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AF@326: I am assuming you do it sequentially, so in the first selection event you have a 0.67 probability of finding a man and a .33 probability of finding a woman. Each subsequent selection will be affected depending on whether a man or woman is selected in the previous selection event. If the first selection was a man. The second selection probabilities are 199/299 andfor a woman 100/299 and so on.
Have you thought about what it would take to actually get an answer doing it this way? Try it.
Now, what’s the relevance?
The fact that people even ask that question makes it relevant. . Generative process X: randomly select a group of 75 different people from a roomful of 200 men and 100 women. Macrostate1: the group contains exactly 25 women. What is the probability that X will generate Macrostate1?cantor
July 8, 2013
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There's no hypocrisy. Just communicating with you on the level you seem to prefer.cantor
July 8, 2013
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scordova (at 277): On the face of it mindless (Darwinian) evolution would very obviously appear to violate statistical, chemical, information-based or diffusion versions the 2nd Law: however, actually demonstrating this in a way which connects with proposed evolutionary processes seems rather tricky to me, so I'm currently uncommitted on the issue (though doubtful, especially in connection in pre-biotic scenarios). To my mind the issue needs proper process-measurable demonstration either way. Having appreciatevely followed Granville Sewell’s articles and posts on this issue, I am becoming a little concerned that there is a disconnect between generalised theoretical treatments and actual proposed Darwinian processes, thus to date I remain unconvinced: tornado illustrations may well correlated to a degree with pre-biotic scenarios, but self-replicationg systems subject to differential selection/survival appear to me to be a different kind of case, requiring a more focussed treatment, and/or appropriate empirical investigation. This present topic thread is primarily concerned with one particular issue in the context of the 2nd Law (even if it is the key issue) - compensation arguments - which is what grabbed my attention; but I shall certainly now look up your previous discussions on the 2nd Law at some stage.Thomas2
July 8, 2013
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cantor,
You can dish it out, but you can’t take it.
Oh, I'm not complaining. Just pointing out the hypocrisy. Carry on.keiths
July 8, 2013
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ks (at 273): Yes, that’s indeed how I’d read it.Thomas2
July 8, 2013
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EL (at 271): Thanks for the clarification - I had indeed read your post as pretty well as keiths suggests (at 273). (My prior experience of the expression “argument from incredulity” has been only in hostile reference to ID arguments generally; in such cases the charge is usually an evasion of a proper counter-argument on the part of the objector, and in turn this objection opens the objector up to the counter charges I suggested – that the claims of Darwinian evolution demand a credulous and uncritical acquiescence, [somewhat Emperor’s new clothes-like], rather than healthy critical scrutiny like any other scientific proposal. I am glad that this was not your meaning.) Perhaps the pink unicorn example, and Granville Sewell’s last argument, might be understood to be something like an "argument from inconsistency" in your analysis?Thomas2
July 8, 2013
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