Tracking Covid-19 Apr 3 . . . are we peaking (for this wave)?

_{kairosfocus

April 3, 2020

Defending our Civilization, Medicine, News Highlights, rhetoric, Sci-Tech watch}

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As we continue to track, let some graphs tell a story, first up is Euro-CDC:

That looks like a peaking, certainly it is not exponential surging in new cases. World in Data, on a 3-day, rolling avg will smoothen, highlighting key countries (including the USA):

That looks like a flattening, trending to turning over on the driving impulse. Let’s see doubling times, which will track comparable exponential growth:

Those were in the 2 – 3 day band previously.

Now, the by country log-lin deaths, with the same 2,3,5 day doubling time rays since five cases as previous:

Likewise, per country log-lin cumulative cases, with the same usual 2,3, 5 and 10 day doubling time from 100 cases rays:

We see a consistent message: while things are bad, we seem to be going peak for at least this wave.

Qualified good news, we are beginning to win this campaign, though we continue to pay a terrible price. Thank God. END

Comments

In the US, Trump supporters are largely enthusiastic and happy to go along with his policy decisions.
We are?ET_{April 5, 2020
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KF, In the US, Trump supporters are largely enthusiastic and happy to go along with his policy decisions. That’s the result of polarization, there’s little in the way of lukewarm support for or against the Administration. The churches not following the advice are doing so for religious reasons, not political.rhampton7_{April 5, 2020
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It appears that you really do not need chloroquine. All you need is zinc and an ionophore. There are natural, OTC ionophores. HT: JerryET_{April 5, 2020
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Yeah cuz America doesn't have wood pulp. Which makes me wonder what would happen if Canada had a resource that the USA needed. How did Japan fare when it pissed us off?ET_{April 5, 2020
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KF, I think post #66 illustrates the problem well. If I understand, you have suggested that posters here oppose the deployment of chloroquine (sp?) for political reasons. Is that correct?daveS_{April 5, 2020
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It turns out that the N95 masks that Trump has ordered 3M not to ship to Canada are largely made with wood pulp produced in Canada. A pulp mill in Canada has now stopped shopping pulp to 3M.Ed George_{April 5, 2020
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DS, unfortunately, that is exactly a big part of the troubles we face. We have burned up social capital and are beginning to have consequences. KF PS: Kindly, see 66 above.kairosfocus_{April 5, 2020
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KF,
I think you underestimate what happens when everything becomes deeply polarised and balkanised through mutual suspicion.
In that spirit, do you think now might be a good time to set aside the "Agit-Prop, Opinon Manipulation And Well-Poisoning Games" tag?daveS_{April 5, 2020
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RH7, were there less severe polarisation and agit prop, the social capital that was squandered would have made for a much more reasonable context in which people could think clearly and act prudently. I think you underestimate what happens when everything becomes deeply polarised and balkanised through mutual suspicion. Once widespread trust, credibility and mutuality have been wrecked, it is far harder to teach, build any community consensus and correct errors. And, imposition by force is going to be deeply resented. The risk of fatal disaffection is great, indeed the USA is on the threshold where elections become unworkable as a loss is routinely attributed to evil tricks of the other side; with the wildest accusations believed -- the principle that there is a right to innocent reputation is undermined. When that happens, all that is left is threat or use of physical force. KFkairosfocus_{April 5, 2020
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PS: I see, not CV19. That's good news.kairosfocus_{April 5, 2020
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Vivid, I trust things go well; obviously age is on her side. KFkairosfocus_{April 5, 2020
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nmdaveS_{April 5, 2020
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EG Thanks although I have mixed feelings since having to go through all that she is going through and not having immunity going forward is a mixed blessing. Vividvividbleau_{April 5, 2020
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Vivid@76, I am glad to hear that it wasn’t COVID. I hope she feels better soon.Ed George_{April 5, 2020
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@Rhampton I never got a single article 15 in the Air Force, but I did know some people who got kicked all the way out. Pro Tip: never lie to your bosses in the military, people. It does not work out well for you.Jim Thibodeau_{April 5, 2020
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Marines at Camp Pendleton have been ordered to follow California’s “shelter in place” guidelines and face severe penalties if they don’t, according to the military base’s commanding general. Violations of the order are punishable under the Uniform Code of Military Justice, the commander said, and personnel may be subject to “appropriate administrative or judicial action.” While more than 38,000 military family members occupy base housing complexes, Camp Pendleton expands to a daytime population of 70,000 military and civilian personnel.rhampton7_{April 5, 2020
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Vividbleau: In other words “The map is not the territory “ Korzybski I didn't realise that quote was attributable. I heard Robert DeNiro say it in the film Ronin. Thanks!! Just looked up Korzybski . . . fascinating work! Thank you very, very much. You've just added someone to my personal pantheon that I didn't even know existed! Yeah!! I love it when that happens. Vividbleau: two points!! And good to hear about your daughter-in-law! Excellent!! But sounds like she's still hurting so I hope things improve a lot soon.JVL_{April 5, 2020
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Since the Johns Hopkins numbers are running about a day behind, we’ve passed the 10,000 American deaths mark. And there are still 5 idiot Trumper governors who haven’t issued stay at home orders.Jim Thibodeau_{April 5, 2020
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KF All I can say is wow!! My daughter in law tests finally came back and it was negative for the virus. Another nasty bug out there? Vividvividbleau_{April 5, 2020
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South Korea has been held up as a paragon for containing the coronavirus, lauded by the world for successfully flattening its curve, it is now bracing for a possible second wave. Despite this general decline, 125 new cases were reported last Monday — a slight increase from the previous day, at 78. The new stats also showed a rising death toll. Most recently, a hospital in Daegu, the center of South Korea’s outbreak, experienced another cluster infection with at least 62 cases. Mannim Central Church in southwestern Seoul confirmed more positive tests, increasing their number to 33. Dr. Ki Moran, a professor at the National Cancer Center’s Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy, said that even the slightest loosening of social distancing fosters the danger of triggering another mass wave.rhampton7_{April 5, 2020
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KF, Do you believe those churches are more likely to believe the media or President Trump &VP Pence? Those churches, BTW, are not representative of all churches. Not at all. But they are at risk for being new clusters of virus because they are defying common sense health precautions. That’s why all the sport leagues and movie theaters have closed.rhampton7_{April 5, 2020
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KF Thanks appreciate you much through these many years, learned a lot. Things got really bad Wednesday night, high fever ( 103), body on fire, episodes of severe nausea, chills which continued into Thursday. Friday fever went up and down was able to eat, then a relapse. Felt fine this AM then relapse again but not as severe. She appears to be recovering but this is one nasty bug. Vividvividbleau_{April 5, 2020
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“True. Theoretical/computer modelling of epidemics is one thing. Reality is another one. A different kind of beast I’d say.” In other words “The map is not the territory “ Korzybski Vividvividbleau_{April 5, 2020
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Vivid, I trust your daughter in law does well. You know what my suggestion is. KFkairosfocus_{April 5, 2020
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@66 Kairosfocus:
...full lockdowns cannot be long sustained because of the economic and social havok they wreak.
True. Theoretical/computer modelling of epidemics is one thing. Reality is another one. A different kind of beast I'd say.Truthfreedom_{April 5, 2020
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KF re 66 Very helpful thanks. Vividvividbleau_{April 5, 2020
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JT “As terrible as this virus is, it’s probably going to dip in the summer, and then come roaring back in the fall, the experts say.” I think your absolutely right. This mitigation Is meant to buy time, but at some point don’t we all eventually have to be exposed to it in one form or another? A vaccine ( one form of exposure) is at least a year away. We are seeing cases now of those who have been exposed before clamp downs, or those like my daughter in law who got it treating patients, The next crop will be people like myself and millions of others who are social distancing, working from home etc, who have not been exposed that are going to be exposed. A second wave is coming and maybe a third wave. Let’s hope some kind of prophylactic will be found. Vividvividbleau_{April 5, 2020
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JT, again, the World in Data results give context. The US, UK and France currently have doubled in 4 days. This has improved from doubling in 2 - 3 days. The battle rages but its trend is turning. I have noted that globally, we are now seeing peaking as I documented in the OP just above that you refuse to respond directly to. KFkairosfocus_{April 5, 2020
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JT, I am glad, in a sense, that you said that. While I carry no brief for our modern Constantine [NOT a compliment], your remarks sound rather like when a Pope in the '80's reacted to a Soviet promoted map of major distributions of US forces. Reagan provided another map, with what was left out. The first thing you left out, of course, is an impeachment capping off a three year campaign of accusations and abuse of intelligence powers. An impeachment that pivoted on star chamber tactics that I noticed how the major media were ever so silent about. And indeed, there are rumblings over another attempt. Do you wonder why the US is nearly fatally polarised? However, it seems we need to go back on what was happening at that time. The toxic polarisation, accusation and insinuation need a bit of correction For one, the disease was not yet generally seen by experts as a strong, direct threat. For instance, here is RCP on the experts [including Dr Fauci] at that time:
As predictions of the coronavirus’ impact have grown more dire and the White House has belatedly acknowledged the pathogen’s repercussions on the nation, the media have increasingly sought to portray the administration as out of touch with early warnings from medical experts about the coming storm. A closer look at the public statements of those very same experts during the early weeks of the outbreak reveals that the administration’s initial reassurances were largely aligned with the assessments of the medical community. Today Anthony Fauci is held up by the media as a national hero of the pandemic response and the only reason to listen to a White House coronavirus briefing. Yet, rewind the clock back to January and his public statements essentially mirrored those of the administration. On Jan. 21, he emphasized that it was unclear whether the virus could spread from person to person: “Is it a continual spread? Is it sustained? We're not quite sure yet.” A University of Minnesota expert offered that “this is one of those inflection moments in outbreak history where we have enough information to be very concerned, but not enough information to say this is going to be an international crisis.” In a Jan. 23 Journal of the American Medical Association podcast, Dr. Fauci repeatedly downplayed the virus’ potential impact on the U.S., noting that all five cases here were travelers from China. He also noted that due to limited testing in China, the number of infections was likely much higher than official counts, meaning that the death rate of the virus was likely much lower than feared. Asked whether the U.S. might contemplate city-wide shutdowns like those China was enacting at the time, Fauci replied, “There's no chance in the world that we could do that to Chicago or to New York or to San Francisco, but they're doing it. So, let's see what happens.” Most importantly, he added that it was still quite possible the Chinese could get control of the outbreak and prevent it from becoming a global issue, and that even if there were more cases in the U.S., “the CDC, as usual, is on top of things.” A day later, Dr. David Heymann, the former head of WHO’s response to SARS, offered that, unlike SARS, the coronavirus “looks like it doesn’t transmit through the air very easily and probably transmits through close contact,” in contrast with recent guidance that it can spread simply through breathing. The same day, Fauci emphasized that other coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS could not sustain person-to-person spread like the flu and that such viruses “maybe never will.” For its part, WHO noted that no person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 had been reported outside of China and that all of the deaths had been limited to that country. Fauci also took care to praise the Chinese government for “being quite transparent” and said he was “impressed” with officials’ cooperation. For its part, the CDC issued a press release on Jan. 24 asserting that “the immediate risk of this new virus to the American public is believed to be low” and instead asking that the public refrain from traveling to China and focus on the seasonal flu rather than the minimal risk of the coronavirus. At a congressional briefing that same day, in response to multiple questions about whether the CDC needed additional funding to combat the disease, Director Robert Redfield reassured senators that it had all of the funds it needed.
That already says much. However, let's look at timeline. First, China, the Epicentre -- which (astonishingly) was being perceived as forthright:
Dec. 30: Ai Fen, a top director at Wuhan Central Hospital, posts information on WeChat about the new virus. She was reprimanded for doing so and told not to spread information about it. Wuhan doctor Li Wenliang also shares information on WeChat about the new SARS-like virus. He is called in for questioning shortly afterward. Wuhan health commission notifies hospitals of a “pneumonia of unclear cause” and orders them to report any related information. Dec. 31:Wuhan health officials confirm 27 cases of illness and close a market they think is related to the virus’ spread. China tells the World Health Organization’s China office about the cases of an unknown illness. Jan. 1: Wuhan Public Security Bureau brings in for questioning eight doctors who had posted information about the illness on WeChat. An official at the Hubei Provincial Health Commission orders labs, which had already determined that the novel virus was similar to SARS, to stop testing samples and to destroy existing samples. Jan. 2: Chinese researchers map the new coronavirus’ complete genetic information. This information is not made public until Jan. 9. Jan. 7: Xi Jinping becomes involved in the response. Jan. 9: China announces it has mapped the coronavirus genome. Jan. 11–17: Important prescheduled CCP meeting held in Wuhan. During that time, the Wuhan Health Commission insists there are no new cases. [--> it's not only religious services] Jan. 13: First coronavirus case reported in Thailand, the first known case outside China. Jan. 14: WHO announces Chinese authorities have seen “no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus.” Jan. 15: The patient who becomes the first confirmed U.S. case leaves Wuhan and arrives in the U.S., carrying the coronavirus. Jan. 18: The Wuhan Health Commission announces four new cases. Annual Wuhan Lunar New Year banquet. Tens of thousands of people gathered for a potluck. [--> it's not only religious services] Jan. 19: Beijing sends epidemiologists to Wuhan . . .
Here is the comparable timeline on US response:
Jan. 7: The CDC established a Wuhan virus incident management system . [Jan 15: CNBC reports, " the first U.S. COVID-19 patient landed at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on Jan. 15" That brought the number of countries with cases to 6.] • Jan. 17: The CDC began implementing public health entry screening at the three U.S. airports that received the most travelers from Wuhan. • Jan. 20: Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, announced efforts to develop a vaccine. [Wiki notes: "The first known case in the United States of COVID-19 was confirmed in the state of Washington on January 20, 2020, in a 35-year-old man who had returned from Wuhan, China on January 15.[4] The White House Coronavirus Task Force was established on January 29.[2] On January 31, the Trump administration declared a public health emergency,[5] and placed travel restrictions on entry for travellers from China.[6]"] • Jan. 21: The CDC activated its emergency operations center to provide support to the coronavirus response. [Wiki notes, Jan 29, WH CV-19 task force set up] • Jan. 31: President Trump declared a public health emergency, announced Chinese travel restrictions, and suspended entry into the U.S. for foreign nationals at risk of transmitting the virus. [This is of course, the "racist" travel restriction. He also brought this up in his SOTU address] • Feb. 4: President Trump promised to “take all necessary steps” to protect Americans from the Wuhan virus in his SOTU. • Feb. 10: An advanced test for detecting Wuhan virus was submitted for FDA approval. • Feb. 11: The Department of Health and Human Services expanded a partnership with Janssen Research & Development to “expedite the development” of a Wuhan virus vaccine. • Feb. 24: The administration sent a letter to Congress requesting at least $2.5 billion to help combat the spread of the Wuhan virus. • Feb. 29: The administration announced a level 4 travel advisory to areas of Italy and South Korea, barred all travel to Iran, and barred the entry of foreign citizens who visited Iran in the last 14 days. • March 3: The CDC lifted federal restrictions on Wuhan virus testing to allow any American to be tested “subject to doctor’s orders.” • March 12: Travel restrictions imposed on the EU. • March 13: Mr. Trump announced public-private partnerships to open drive-through testing sites. March 16: Clinical trials begin on Wuhan vaccine. • March 18: President Trump announced a temporary closure of the U.S.-Canada border to non-essential traffic and invoked the Defense Production Act. • March 21: Advanced Wuhan test goes into production.
The reality is, with a highly contagious air-spreading disease not confirmed as such early on, once lodgements happen, breakouts are highly likely and will only stop if they are stamped on with effective treatment or vaccination or else when herd immunity kicks in. Lockdowns etc tend to slow it down but full lockdowns cannot be long sustained because of the economic and social havoc they wreak. (Note, I write this while under national 24 hr lockdown now scheduled to run for 3 weeks.) I find it interesting that with mounting evidence of a credible, low cost treatment on the table, the same folks decrying lack of early response want to delay deployment. Vaccines are maybe a year away. Lockdowns simply cannot be long sustained. I think we need to do some fairly serious re-thinking. KFkairosfocus_{April 5, 2020
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The US is currently getting 35,000 new cases per day.Jim Thibodeau_{April 5, 2020
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