Uncommon Descent Serving The Intelligent Design Community

BREXIT! — initial concerns and impacts

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. . . including, regarding major trends of our civilisation vis a vis the IslamISTS, also as a civilisation, we face “seven mountains of influence” issues.

Drudge headline:

drudge_brexitx

The initial fall of the Pound off the cliff on the announcement from Sunderland that was the first clear indicator of which way the referendum would go:

gbp_reacts_sund_voteout

Sky News live:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y60wDzZt8yg

Key initial impacts:

  • UK Prime Minister, David Cameron has resigned, staying on as a three-month caretaker
  • Former Mayor of London Boris Johnson (leader of the Brexit campaign) is tipped a likely successor
  • A 2 – 4 year estimated Lisbon Article 50 leave process is likely to begin under Cameron’s successor.
  • The Governor of the Bank of England has promised liquidity in Pounds and key foreign currencies to ease pressure on UK markets and the currency.
  • Key stocks, starting with leading banks are off by up to 1/5.
  • FTSE initially has dived 6.95% though as of this writing it has clawed its way back above the 6,000 threshold,
  • the GBP dived 5.77% against the Euro (which is itself falling), and up to 8.46% against the US$, hitting as low as $1.36 down from $1.50 on the eve of the vote. The Yen is rising.
  • Gold is surging, oil is falling.
  • The Scots have long since warned that a Brexit would re-open the independence question, which would have major consequences for the UK’s geostrategic stance in the world, and knock-on effects for the global economy and stability.
  • And much more . . .

Geostrategic issues are of sobering concern when we consider the global geostrategic situation:

geostrat-pic

_____________

[U/D Jun 28:] Let me add some illustrations to give geostrategic/ geopolitical background:

1: The classic heartland-rimland context:

heart_rim

. . . note a Cold war era-esque, rimlands oriented view of conflict lines:

wrldclash4

. . . and a map of NATO vs the Warsaw Pact:

nato_warsaw_map

2: The practical  Lebensraum goal c 1941 (expanding on Septemberprogramm 1914):

Greater_Germanic_Reich

3: A Picture of today’s Euronetwork (Germany focussed):

map_GermanyandEurope_800

4: Africa

Map_of_Trans-African_Highways

5: Cecil B Rhodes as a Cape to Cairo Colossus (they had rail in mind then):

Punch_Rhodes_Colossus

____________________

We must also ponder civilisation level trends, for which the (generic) seven mountains of influence approach may be helpful:

seven_mountains_culture_agenda

One obvious implication is this is a sign of rising nationalism in the midst of an unsettling and utterly atypical US Election year that just saw an assassination attempt — directly parallel to the murder of a UK Member of Parliament. (If anything, that would tend to favour Mr Trump; providing, he does in fact become the Republican nominee.)

As touching origins debates and linked concerns relevant to Intelligent Design and to the historic heritage of our civilisation, the key issue will be the power moves made during a time of uncertainties and instabilities. For, we deal with those of the Marxian type view that a “crisis” must not go to “waste.”

Vigilance, is eternally the price of liberty. END

PS: Pound, pounded

pound_poundedx
Yahoo news on the 5-day pound trend.

Here is 20 year context:

GBP vs USD 20+ year trend
GBP vs USD 20+ year trend

 

Comments
EZ, to see what I mean on a dangerous world, please cf the illustration of geopolitical concerns in the OP. KFkairosfocus
June 27, 2016
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Ell "That is just untrue. Not only did Britain have elected MEPs (Members of the European Parliament, one of who is one of the ring leaders for the ‘leave’ campaign, Nigel Ferage) but the UK had lots of veto privileges " The MEPs have no power. Also since the late 80's Britian has voted 70 times against EU legislation and are 0 for 70. Vividvividbleau
June 27, 2016
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"Vivid "No it’s not over, when you don’t like the vote, vote until you get the result you want. Actually I think something like this was said by a top EU leader. I will try to locate it if I can." Found them. Here is what the former PM of Belgium said regarding a referendum on the EU constitution " If the answer is no, we will probably will have to vote again because the answer must absolutely be a yes" Jean Claude Juncker regarding the French referendum on the EU constitution "If it's a yes we will say" on we go "if it's a no we will say "we continue" Look how the EU responds when people reject their mandate. The people voted to reject the Mastricht Treaty, The Nice Treaty,the French referendum on the constitution , the Netherlands referendum on the EU constitution,the Lisbon Treaty,the Euro bailout. All rejected .Every time the EU either made them vote again to get the result they wanted or just ignored the vote altogether! The most outrageous statement made by Juncker is this little ditty. "When it becomes serious we have to lie" He also said "There can be no democratic choice against the European Treaties" The EU is anti democratic. Vividvividbleau
June 27, 2016
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Robert Byers
it really was about who is the boss. THe EU was taking over Britain by imposing conclusions without British support or ability to discuss things.
That is just untrue. Not only did Britain have elected MEPs (Members of the European Parliament, one of who is one of the ring leaders for the 'leave' campaign, Nigel Ferage) but the UK had lots of veto priviledges.
True Englishman voted out. It was the others and dumber young people who voted stay in.
Clearly you are ill informed as to the nature of the debate and who supported what side. There were lots and lots of businessmen, senior conservative politicians, the governor of the bank of England (who is Canadian), etc who wanted to stay in the EU.
It was the leftwing elite that lost. Congrats to the people to strike at them.
Again, don't talk about stuff you haven't bothered to learn about.
When so many people want out of a unnatural union then they should be respected. in fact the STAY IN vote should of been needing say 70% to represent a united nation. THe pro EU folks are the ones causing the trouble.
You don't live here and you are pretty clueless regarding the issue and who supported which side.ellazimm
June 26, 2016
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KF
Ponder the historical relationships between the two, the resources and synergy brought to the table and to the wider world (for all the sins, doing a literal world of good) from the days of the Stuarts on. (And yes, I can feel the ancestral tug of the vision of Scotland, but there are days such that “Those days are past now, And in the past they must remain.”) Then ponder a weakened, polarised, rump Britain in an increasingly dangerous age. And that is before we get to the issues of economics etc.
I completely agree with the danger to world-wide economics. And it has been destabilising already. But you've not very specific about anything else. Are you afraid of a resurgent Germany then?ellazimm
June 26, 2016
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I'm Canadian and welcome a vote here about living with our NATIONS. FIrst, Quebec, Multicultural, ana a few others. anyways. Not everyone voted and so they voted for the winner too. I think 25%. They matter too. it really was about who is the boss. THe EU was taking over Britain by imposing conclusions without British support or ability to discuss things. If a nation is going to exist then exist without other nations controlling you. Immigration, religious, gay, feminist, etc issues were all being decided by the EU. Never mind the wicked human rights tyranny attempts. True Englishman voted out. It was the others and dumber young people who voted stay in. The good guys won this time. By the way. The stock market reaction shows how its not related to real economy but instead impressions of the economy. A lesson there too. It was the leftwing elite that lost. Congrats to the people to strike at them. When so many people want out of a unnatural union then they should be respected. in fact the STAY IN vote should of been needing say 70% to represent a united nation. THe pro EU folks are the ones causing the trouble.Robert Byers
June 26, 2016
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The European Union once adopted a resolution against creationism / intelligent design. The dangers of creationism in education http://assembly.coe.int/nw/xml/XRef/Xref-XML2HTML-EN.asp?fileid=17592&lang=en Creationism is the philosophical foundation of democracy. Opinion is a creationist concept, and choosing is the mechanism of creationism. Now the EU is punished for being undemocratic and out of touch with people's emotions. Justice is served on the EU.mohammadnursyamsu
June 26, 2016
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Splatter, I am quite concerned. KFkairosfocus
June 26, 2016
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Update, Yahoo News: >>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The $2.08 trillion wiped off global equity markets on Friday after Britain voted to leave the European Union was the biggest daily loss ever, trumping the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy during the 2008 financial crisis and the Black Monday stock market crash of 1987, according to Standard & Poor's Dow Jones Indices. Global markets skidded following the unexpected result from the June 23 referendum, in which Britons voted to withdraw from the EU by a 52 percent to 48 percent margin. Markets in mainland Europe were hit the worst, with Milan and Madrid each down more than 12 percent for their biggest losses ever. Britain's benchmark FTSE 100 was down nearly 9 percent at one point on Friday, but rallied to close down 3.15 percent. The route started in Asia, with the Nikkei down 7.9 percent, and carried over into Wall Street as the S&P 500 fell 3.6 percent. Mohit Bajaj, director of ETF trading solutions at WallachBeth Capital LLC in New York, said the severity of the sell-off was partly due to investors misreading the outcome and betting the wrong way. "People positioned themselves longer because they thought the market was going to pop," he said. "We knew that we were going to sell off pretty hard and people were kind of shocked by the market.">> KFkairosfocus
June 26, 2016
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Interesting piece, mw. But I would guess that Christians or those influenced by it won it for Brexit, because there is little for the establishment to frighten them with. As for "end of statistical Christianity": I'll trust in God's purposes not census data, thanks. Pollsters can't even get the outcome of a referendum right one night before the vote. Already those whom DOL refers to as "asshats" have staged a faux protest based on a jimmied "petition" which had many 1000s of bent signatories. The people now rejecting democracy are those that try and win by whingeing with hashtags, shaming, no platforming etc. Most constitutional experts find it laughable: 100000 signatures from a website vs 17M votes to leave collected and counted under electoral law? Please. The much vaunted Bregret photos are also staged nonsense. Not hard to find a flimflam voter who took a punt on something without knowing what they wanted now caving under social media pressure, wailing "I've changed my mind!"---as if it was reality TV. The truth is, none of my leave friends have changed their minds. Shared the pain of the last few days (and months to come), sure. But this is the long game. Both our major political parties have collapsed with infighting, laying bare their lack of principles and collegial respect. Most people here just want to pull the plaster off and get on with it. There are alright signs of some stoic optimism amongst the grownup element, and sensibility returning to the markets.Splatter
June 26, 2016
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Apologies KF, "out" should read "in."mw
June 26, 2016
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It seems KF would have voted out. Is dwindling Christian England afraid of being a little flock? Over half did not vote to stay, money or no money. It is an outrage that a democratic decision cannot be respected. We all voted as one! Note: as one! Not for some to spit their dummy out of the pram. It is odds on, that Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland, would have found a pretext to leave England irrespective, that is why she is where she is following her loss in the Scottish English referendum a while ago! Sour grapes again! As for initial good of the EU, Robert Schuman, a Catholic French minister of Foreign Affairs, in 1950, proposed that France and Germany should pool their production of coal and steel, the cause of centuries of enmity between France and Germany. The first European Community was born and from it, the European Union. Closed was the process for his beatification in 2004. He had worked for a Christian Europe. However, in England, June 2014, ‘coincidently’ following a similar European Council resolution of 2007, the secularist British Humanist Association was triumphant after lobbying when new educational laws were quietly introduced which, “prevents the teaching of creationism as evidence based theory in any academy or free school.” Evidence, interpretation, and “truth” come in many forms. Irrespective; in Europe, ISIS had judged Paris a ‘justifiable’ target. Award winning reporter Iben Thranholm for the Danish Broadcasting Corporation, reported their murderous statement: “a blessed battle whose causes of success were enabled by Allah;” targeted because it is “a capital of prostitution and vice” and “the lead carrier of the cross in Europe.” She mentions posted images were taken moments before the concert massacre showing people making a sign for horns (Black Sabbath first copied the sign into heavy metal) in preparation for a song from the Eagles of Death Metal; “Who’ll love the Devil? Who’ll sing his song? … I will love the Devil and his song.” http://creation.com/terrorism-europe-spiritual-vacuum After Brixit, it seems that the banking giant HSBC, is pulling out of London 1000 employees and going to Paris. However, no worries, in a letter, Darwin dismissed hell, and Christianity as divinely religion, and Jesus as divine. Ironic, Darwin made a God in the image of war and death to give his theory some religious front. Darwin certainly died to the Judaeo-Christian God, which speaks volumes for his theory. He wrote: “Thus, from the war of nature, from famine and death, the most exalted object which we are capable of conceiving, namely, the production of the higher animals, directly follows.” (Origin, 1859, p 490) What; Jesus/God evolves life by natural war, famine and death; IS exterminating Christians, abortion crushing babies, and casting out divine law and Gospel teaching, when Jesus fulfilled six day Sinai law as God-Man (Jn 8:58) & (Matt 5:17-18)! Where are we Brits heading if we carry on as we are? In 2015, The Spectator reported that by extrapolating the National Census (2001 & 2011) — the end of statistical Christianity in Britain is 2067. Big changes are needed.mw
June 26, 2016
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My own thoughts: http://kairosfocus.blogspot.com/2016/06/brexit-will-scotland-leave-uk-after-300.htmlkairosfocus
June 26, 2016
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More on the potential dismembering of the UK: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/26/world/europe/after-brexit-3-centuries-of-unity-in-britain-are-in-danger.html?action=click&contentCollection=Style&module=Trending&version=Full&region=Marginalia&pgtype=articlekairosfocus
June 26, 2016
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The EU is a bloated bureaucracy and not accountable to those they govern. It favors large international corporations over small business as only the large ones can afford to navigate the regulatory burdens. It is a tool of the moneyed interest. Desperate all their public whining multinational corporations love heavy regulation because it is a barrier to competition. No it's not over, when you don't like the vote, vote until you get the result you want. Actually I think something like this was said by a top EU leader. I will try to locate it if I can. The stakes are so large for the moneyed interests that somehow someway this will probably be reversed by hook or crook. Vividvividbleau
June 25, 2016
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The EU ia an unprecedented (never happened in our human history) achievement. The union of the US was the first example of differences uniting, but the EU was the uniting of ancient hatreds dating back centuries; it will survive these early rumblings just as the US (the Federalist Papers) survived its birth: They have the advantages of knowing the US example, and being the home of enlightenment thought Article 50 which must be acted upon hasn't been tabled in the British parliament yet. Already the 'exiters' are distancing themselves from their 'success'. Scotland will leave unless there is extreme backtracking. "Be careful for what you wish for you may actually get it!" This is by no means over.rvb8
June 25, 2016
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It now looks like there is a "Regrexit" backlash. It's noteworthy that the petition to hold a second referendum now has over two million signatures in support. One other point, for all its faults, people underestimate just what an achievement the EU is. Think about it, the states of Europe fought each other for centuries for various reasons, culminating in two devastating world wars in the twentieth century which left much of the continent in ruins. Yet, within three decades, a group of disparate nations with different languages and cultures had managed to co-operate and build a prosperous and successful common market and were trying to move it towards a federal state. When has that ever happened before? The United States had the immense advantages of a common language and culture and even they fought a bloody civil war. The other groupings, such as the old Soviet Union or Communist China, were vassal states held in thrall by the brute force of a military dictatorship.Seversky
June 25, 2016
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Arrogance and unaccountability having painful consequences, where the election is an institutionalised potential revolution. Message: do not corner the ordinary man.kairosfocus
June 25, 2016
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This was a good thing. The British people had almost given everything up. Polls ahead of the referendum said that people were responding 50:50. But many more people, when asked "What do you think the effect on the UKs finances would be?" ticked something to the effect of "Bad. I'll be poorer." They voted out in the full knowledge our economy would hit the rocks. I was one of them. I have never been prouder to be British. My children live in a parliamentary democracy and will get to keep their history and culture. All foreigners welcome, any time. We are out of the EUSSR! The American people need to see we are hard working, honest and do the right thing. You can trust us with your investment because we are toughened industrialists with a fine history. If you are getting peddled "it was the white working class xenophobia" load of balls out there, that's what it is. Balls. A large chunk of voters were the elderly who fought in the war and rebuilt Britain. I know tonnes of Brexiters. Racist, they are not. Many here voted Remain, and they had good reasons too. My family was spkit down the middle. But their priorities were not mine.Splatter
June 25, 2016
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As an English Brexit voter, a few thoughts on why I voted out. First, to take back our sovereignty. To be able to remove a single government, not a faceless multitude of people representing governments we never elected. To control our own laws, not silly law making laws like what shapes bananas should conform to. To be able as an island, able to control our borders; something like Australia. We have been under the economic cosh for ages, some a lot more than wealthy others, and as a result of Bankers getting it wrong. Yet it was taxpayers who bailed them out. Why should we bother if we suffer a little longer, cuts are still increasing to pay for the banker debt? Economically, in the long term, to take back our own law making sovereignty is priceless. Then there is the Council of Europe, who long ago placed their 12 stars around the teaching of their beloved Darwin, detesting any challenge. The Council of Europe declared “It is impossible to reconcile faith and science” meaning faith based on Sinai and God’s word personally; as evolutionism is, “the central theory for our understanding of life on earth and for the reassessment of the foundations of our societies,” and “absurd” is evolutionary theories that included God. (Article 18, Resolution 1580, 2007) http://creation.com/resisting-the-secular-slide (“The European Union is the Council of Europe’s most important institutional partner at both political and technical levels. Co-operation embraces all sectors of the Council of Europe and a wide spectrum of activities, making the European Union an ‘across the board’ partner.”) http://pjp-eu.coe.int/en/web/south-programme2/themes In Judaeo-Christian terms, such resolution intellectually places a crown of ignorance on Jesus, making Him and the “Saviour” Father Yahweh (Isa. 43:11) to live in the past. Jesus then is tarred as an unworthy saviour, because He is not ‘scientific,’ not a truly knowledgeable saviour for all times. Evolutionism means His judgement is seriously flawed on origins. If the evolutionistic Council is true, then such scripture from Sinai, containing a clear cut divine law, becomes totally unrecognisable nonsense. The Council of Europe went further, “Creationism, if we are not careful may be a threat to human rights, which are at the heart of the concerns of the Council of Europe, firmly oppose the teaching of creationism.” http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Council_of_Europe_2007_resolution_on_the_teaching_of_creationism Surely it is not against teaching the flaws in Darwinism? The Council of Europe has plenty to say about ID - it is dangerous: “Creationism has many contradictory aspects. The “intelligent design” idea, which is the latest, more refined version of creationism, does not deny a certain degree of evolution. However, intelligent design, presented in a more subtle way, seeks to portray its approach as scientific, and therein lies the danger.” The Father teaches creationism and as a divine law from Sinai; the Son upholds what the Father teaches, who are one in essence. The Council of Europe have made The Judaeo-Christian God a threat to education and hence, ‘human rights’: meaning, secularist education. Such is agnostic/atheistic captivity; the errors of Russia. However, yes, the UK economy will pay initially, but all those in the UK now have to make the new British system work. Yes, there are challenges ahead, including Scotland. Help is also needed from America, not putting us to the back of the cue! Then again, Americans may vote Trump! He seems to like taking things back!mw
June 25, 2016
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This is why the founding fathers of the US established a federalist union of smaller "nation-states" and intended to keep the power and influence of the federal government to a minimum: they recognized the nature of humans to collect into and strongly identify with more local, tribal (community) groups; and they recognized the inherent problem of large, overbearing powerful governments removed by distance and characteristics from wide swathes of the citizenry. The Nation-State is, IMO, about as large as an effective government can be (depending on the geographical size and diversity of population of the nation in question). Globalism is a utopian pipe-dream for the foolish and a tool for tyrannical self-empowerment for the unscrupulous. IMO, the USA may be headed for a similar break-up as the entrenched global elitists try to force the rest of us down a path they sell as utopian but turns out to be a third world hell. Perhaps the nationalist/populist backlash currently going on will take a lesson from history and avoid extremist mistakes.William J Murray
June 25, 2016
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Let us ponder how our civilisation is heading for a cliff . . .kairosfocus
June 25, 2016
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F/N: I added a chart showing how the Pound went over a cliff and has been pounded. KFkairosfocus
June 25, 2016
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Both, resist reform.kairosfocus
June 25, 2016
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Barry Arrington @ 5
I see the Brexit vote as mainly a rebuke of rule by unaccountable bureaucrats.
I agree. Brussels has come to be seen as remote, unaccountable, complacent, arrogant and probably corrupt. Much as Washington is seen in the US. Both need reform.Seversky
June 24, 2016
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Mung @ 22
What’s next? Canada declares independence from England?
Be our guest. Don't let the door hit you on the way out.Seversky
June 24, 2016
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What's next? Canada declares independence from England?Mung
June 24, 2016
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Vivid, I suggest the UN is largely an irrelevant sideshow on Turtle Bay. The EU-NATO and its connexions in a network is much more closely the heir of the League. KFkairosfocus
June 24, 2016
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F/N: Vanity Fair, of all sources, has thoughts worth pondering:
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/06/how-britain-was-broken In the first hours of the strange new world, Prime Minister David Cameron, a broken man, announced that he would be stepping down, implicitly acknowledging that referendum was entirely of his making, and that he was responsible for losing it. Nicola Sturgeon, the leader of the Scottish National Party, announced that the country, which had voted overwhelmingly to remain, would likely be seeking a new independence referendum in order to join the E.U. as an independent nation. In Northern Ireland, where a majority had also voted to remain, Martin McGuinness, the deputy first minister and member of nationalist Sinn Fein, called for a poll on a united Ireland. Nearly a century after the Irish Civil War, and only decades removed form incomprehensible atrocities of the Troubles, it is indeed conceivable that the border between Ulster and the Republic could be vanquished. If these things happen, and there is no reason why they shouldn’t, the United Kingdom, once a great power and still the world’s fifth-largest economy, will be reduced to a rump state of England and Wales. It would have a vastly diminished presence on the international stage—the victim, as Der Spiegel noted, of “an act of deliberate self mutilation” that bears the “emblem of a country in retreat.”
BBC, on the SNP announcement -- which prolongs the period of uncertainty and turmoil:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36621030 Scotland's first minister has said a second independence referendum is "highly likely" after the UK voted to leave the EU. Nicola Sturgeon said it was "democratically unacceptable" that Scotland faced the prospect of being taken out of the EU against its will. She said the Scottish government would begin preparing legislation to enable another independence vote. Scotland voted in favour of the UK staying in the EU by 62% to 38%. The UK as a whole has voted to leave, by a margin of 52% to 48%
I am not so sure visceral hostility among "right wing parties" is the right locus of blame, noting for just one instance the role played by Labour supporters in the result. The fundamental concern seems to be out of touch, unaccountable unresponsive elites and bureaucrats. KFkairosfocus
June 24, 2016
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News, this is completely off topic but I thought that you might find some enjoyment in a FB group "Runnymede Remembered". It is run by an ex student and teacher.magna charta
June 24, 2016
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