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Newswatch — tracking the Ukraine crisis in light of the shadows of 1938 . . .

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Preliminary thoughts are here, I  have a very queasy feeling in my tummy over this one.

For historical context, here is Wiki’s summary of developments coming out of the 1938 “Peace in our time” crisis of 1938, which began with German agitation over the claimed plight of the Sudeten Germans living under Czech rule — which turned out to be a first major international use of the turnabout accusation, blame the targetted victim agitprop tactic:


Parallels to the unfolding situation in the Ukraine include Poland as neighbour, with the former East Prussia now a Russian province and enclave (though this time, Poland is a member in good standing of NATO). Airing news seems to have an interesting summary, and provides a useful map (HT):


U/D, Mar 5th: Now, is this about oil, in large measure — shades of “blood for oil”?

HT VJT, here is an oil pipeline map, from  World Observer Online :


On BBC news just now (a Caribbean tradition, even though BBC today is nothing like it once was . . . itself connected to the culture-wide confrontation over worldviews and origins) Ukrainians heading to work were stopped by Russian troops in Armoured Personnel carriers on the “front lines” threatening to shoot them in the legs, after three warning shots.

This unfolding crisis is of course not directly on topic for UD, but is worth monitoring in its own right and in light of connexions to the nuke-threshold situation in the Persian Gulf, and Syria’s simmering chaos — both being allies of Putin’s Russia . . . and with Venezuela orbiting in similar circles even as it has its own chaotic situation. Impacts on oil, financial markets and general economic situations practically beg to be drawn out and discussed.

Not to mention, Ms Sarah Palin’s then derided October 21, 2008 “scenario four” prediction (probably rooted in drawing parallels to the 1938 crisis in light of Russian desires for Crimea, where its main Black Sea Fleet base is located):

[youtube GhCh4wkYlCQ]

Where of course, Ms Palin is a capital example of the way the cultural controversies too often play out, including over design theory, in an atmosphere of well-poisoning contempt largely — though obviously not only [can we all agree to disagree without being unnecessarily disagreeable?] — coming from the side that imagines it is the vanguard of scientifically informed progress and too often  sees those who differ with them as by and large “ignorant, stupid, insane or wicked.”.

So, why not have a UD thread to allow tracking the development at our favourite site for discussion?

(I don’t find the general coverage particularly well organised or insightful, let’s see if we can do better.)

Also, the unfolding crisis and reactions to it are highly revealing on the cultural civil war across our civilisation centred on issues tied to the debates over origins and linked ethical foundations of culture: if humans are morally governed beings, what does that mean?

Let us ponder, together.

UD regulars and visitors are therefore also encouraged to add links to tracking information below as this story unfolds now that an ultimatum seems to have been given (or was it . . . even that seems fuzzy).  END

PS: A question of agent provocation sniping has been raised in thread by JWT which I just saw March 6th, so here is the clip with the taped phone call, reflect on 7:11 on in light of the context:

[youtube OSCmnWw0JeU]

Nasty whichever way it goes, but the geo-strategically pivotal issue is Russian intervention, the illegitimacy of which is seen from the removal of national identification from uniforms.

FT on after Crimea what's next -- looks like a Russian prof speaking out: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a6c2e8f6-ab99-11e3-90af-00144feab7de.html kairosfocus
U/D: A lesson in state of the art agit-prop Plato's Cave games manipulation and intimidation . . . Kyiv Post on the Crimea "referendum" held over the weekend:
1] Protasova on referendum at gunpoint: http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-ed/nataliia-protasova-referendum-at-gunpoint-339628.html >> Today, the illegitimate referendum recognized only by Russia took place in Crimea. The Crimean government announced that that no less than 80 percent of peninsula's population took part in the referendum. Today in Kerch, Crimea, while some people glumly walked to polling stations with the understanding that their vote won't change a thing, Russia's supporters celebrated the long-awaited day. >> 2] AP, on 97% favour join now: http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/associated-press-final-results-show-97-percent-of-voters-in-crimea-support-joining-russia-339647.html >> The final results of the referendum in Crimea show that 97 percent of voters have supported leaving Ukraine to join Russia, the head of the referendum election commission said Monday. Mikhail Malyshev told a televised news conference that final tally from Sunday's vote was 96.8 percent in favor of splitting from Ukraine. He also said that the commission has not registered a single complaint about the vote. >> 3] Reuters, on Russia closing in, Ukraine fearful & defiant: http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/reuters-as-russia-closes-in-ukrainians-fearful-defiant-339651.html >> Ukrainian museum caretaker Valentin knows what it's like when Moscow sends in troops to occupy a reluctant ally - he was there, in Red Army uniform, when Soviet tanks rolled in to crush the Prague Spring in 1968. "We were the occupiers then. Now we are the ones who are being occupied by the Russians," he said, shaking his head at the irony of history which sees Ukraine, long Moscow's closest partner, losing Crimea after Sunday's Kremlin-backed referendum there and fearing further invasion from the east. But, surveying Kiev war museum's display of tanks and combat aircraft, he said Russian President Vladimir Putin must beware. As Ukraine's government called up troops, and television ran images of Ukrainian armour on the move to a soundtrack of anti-Soviet patriotic song, he said the nation of 46 million would be no pushover: "We would resist. There would be a partisan war." >> Notice, the Museum director on the turnabout accusation tactic in use: >> "Us fascists?" asked Valentin. "They're the fascists," he said, likening the "referendum at gunpoint" he expects to annex Crimea to the invasion he was part of as a young conscript, when Soviet leaders claimed to have been invited by Czechoslovakia to lend "fraternal help" against a purported right-wing plot. Putin uses the role of far-right groups in last month's overthrow of his elected ally in Kiev to brand Ukraine's new leaders as neo-Nazis and to warn he may send troops to "protect" citizens of the "brotherly state". That offends staff and visitors to the memorial park, whose anger and confusion over a possible war reflects emotions felt by many in the capital. >>
Somewhere out in the nether regions the ghosts of Goebbels, Stalin and Alinsky are laughing. We, should be weeping. Now, transfer the lessons to other cases and understand how we are being manipulated and intimidated more subtly elsewhere and on other topics in our civilisation. KF PS: If you have been monitoring the sadly "standard" design objector tactics of dismissing terms used in our discussions, such as micro vs macro evo, the reference to stasis as a dominant feature of the fossil record, the want of transitionals, etc etc, and accusations of willful and systematic misrepresentation on our part, cf here for a marked up newspaper clipping from a report on the 1980 Field Museum closed doors conference of a top circle of 150, tracing to a NYT report by Boyce Rensberger. kairosfocus
JG, No. Russia has a legitimate interest in rights of minorities (but does not have a good track record at home), however that does not excuse geostrategic games and aggression. What we are seeing here comes right out of 1938. And the Western leadership are doing the same mistakes again. It has emerged that US, Britain and Russia guaranteed Ukraine's integrity AND that NATO did the same. That was the basis on which Ukraine surrendered its ex-Sov nukes. But there has been no serious stance that would give Putin pause. That kind of folly killed the League of Nations and set the stage for WW II. This time, nukes are in play . . . and, a lot of key decision-makers in capitals around the world from Canberra to Vilnius and Jerusalem not to mention Riyadh -- and, ominously, Tehran -- are now realising that US and NATO backing may be worth no more than the results of the last US Presidential election. (Don't people realise that such folly is a sure road to war? But then, I suspect history books do not draw out the lessons . . . ) And, maybe, we have here a basis for beginning to understand the quality of what Bush senior did in helping to see that the breakup of the USSR and wider Warsaw Pact (complete with reunification of Germany) had a minimum of this sort of thing. But I am convinced that the major media and the general public they influence, have little or no interest in understanding either history or geo-strategic issues, principles and implications soundly. It is so much easier to spin or swallow cartoonish caricatures. That is one root of many follies. KF kairosfocus
Are you saying what Russia is doing is correct measure then? Protecting what it considers as it's nationals from any forces that might try to send them (back) to Russia by entering that foreign land and practically treating it as it's own land? Sure, they may cast a vote, but the Ukrainians haven't even had a chance to breath since the removal of the former president. Perhaps, if Crimea is absorbed by Russia, the Ukraine can subsequently enter Crimea to protect it's own nationals still in Crimea using the same logic! What do you think should be done (if anything at all) by all the currently interested and/or active players? Russia, Ukraine, Crimea, EU members, US, Canada, Japan and others... JGuy
JG: After WW II, many German descendants in the east were forcibly resettled in Germany; cf. here. KF kairosfocus
If there were Russian citizens that country X considered also as X nationalists living in Russia. Should the government of country X then send forces to invade Russia to protect the nationalists and occupy whatever land they live on when any drastic changes in the Russian government occur? ..or.. Should the government of country X let those people decide whether they want to live in the new changed Russia or simply invite them back to country X? JGuy
Shades of 1938 kairosfocus
Ukraine - more potential dissection: http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/russia-says-it-has-right-to-intervene-in-donetsk-after-clashes-339401.html JGuy
Ready to get nuclear(again): http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/03/10/ukraine-nuclear/6250815/ JGuy
Interesting reading. My concerns on reading Putin's motives pivot on the disguised intervention and the apparently questionable terms of the referendum. A man knowing he was right would not be doing that. kairosfocus
Hi kairosfocus, Here's an interesting article from the Christian Science Monitor: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2014/0307/China-to-Russia-You-re-putting-us-in-a-tight-spot And here's an opposing viewpoint from American Thinker: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2014/03/as_china_and_india_back_russia_ukraine_crisis_is_over.html On the right to secession: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Security-Watch/2014/0309/Obama-refuses-to-recognize-a-Russian-Crimea.-But-is-secession-illegal-video For background knowledge, try this: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/2013/1202/How-much-do-you-know-about-Ukraine-Take-our-quiz/ vjtorley
Putin’s Russia is the only remaining superpower that is currently a bastion of Christianity.
Are you joking? JWTruthInLove
A: I fear P may be playing the entanglement and co-optation game. With the US, I think the pattern is more complex, a rising apostasy multiplied by a hollowing out core, cutting off from historical roots, being overawed by "science" the rise of hedonism, the celebrity and entertainment culture and worship of wealth. Plus the corrosive effects of mass bloodguilt over is it 55 million abortions (it's not just a few prison camp commandants and guards). And more. KF kairosfocus
Re #57, KF, alas, Putin's Russia is the only remaining superpower that is currently a bastion of Christianity. We know the extraordinary constraints Putin must be under to continue to keep the ravening wolves of the West at bay, and his own domestic gangster-oligarchs under some sort of control. The UK is such a small country, with five hundred years odd of spy services, the latter have a poultice on the populace, so can do pretty much what they like under the radar. And in the US, discretion is no longer even necessary; an outcome for the country seemingly foreseen and feared by Eisenhower, though such Mammon-worship, allied to Moloch-worship, was bound to breed a culture of extraordinary wall-to-wall violence. Axel
Kissinger weighs in: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html So does Brzezinski: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/zbigniew-brzezinski-after-putins-aggression-in-ukraine-the-west-must-be-ready-to-respond/2014/03/03/25b3f928-a2f5-11e3-84d4-e59b1709222c_story.html --> I should say, that it's a no-brainer that no-one should get into a shooting war with Russia in its backyard especially; Russia is the core of Mackinder's World Island and it cannot be conquered, even before we get to nukes. --> What may be possible is to stop this at Crimea, and secure the rest of Ukraine, maybe even getting a face saving eventual climb-down to some sort of Crimean autonomous region. Russia already has several decades lease on its fleet base and is building another elsewhere on the Black Sea. I should add the port-base in Syria, and the long run Russian drive for ice-free ports. That is why places like St Petersburg, Crimea and Vladivostok are crucial to Russia. --> The best we can hope for is a new generation of Russian leaders and thinkers not unduly shaped by the Cold War era, but don't hold your breath kairosfocus
PPPS: Dr Condoleeza Rice (a Russia Expert) weighs in: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/condoleezza-rice-will-america-heed-the-wake-up-call-of-ukraine/2014/03/07/cf087f74-a630-11e3-84d4-e59b1709222c_story.html --> Read her, read others, including the view linked by Axel, and make up your own mind. --> I add this, by the just former president of Georgia who was president there in 2008: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/mikheil-saakashvili-the-west-must-not-appease-putin/2014/03/06/db9e0c82-a4a9-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html kairosfocus
PPS: Norway's aftenposten on the Crimean Parliament vote based on interviews with parliamentarians: http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/uriks/Voting-fraud-secured-pro-russian-majority-in-Crimean-parliament-7496130.html#.UxyG1KXsFFL kairosfocus
PS: The cynical nature of the referendum (cf. here) to be held in several days time removes any doubt that Putin is up to no good. The West is guilty of many sins but that is no excuse to jump from frying pan into fire. Just ask the Christian peoples of Syria and Egypt or North Africa and Spain how much good that did them when Islam came knocking at the door. kairosfocus
Axel: Pardon, home late after an Ac 16 type incident. Quick points, you will notice my "for all her sins" speaking of Britain. The same holds for America and for that matter Rome. But, in the end for all their sins . . . remember I bear the name of a man unjustly hanged by a colonial governor after a kangaroo court under martial law he should not have been tried under, the interests of a regional or global maritime power typically make it more a friend than an enemy of liberty. I suggest you look at that incident too when Hitler tried the turnabout on Roosevelt who asked pointed questions early in 1939. He pointed to the sins of Britain and France, and America, assuring the world of how he had secured the views of various European powers on his peaceful intent. All the while the plans against Poland were in full swing. As for Hitler being anybody's baby but the devil, the various parties, power blocs and industrialists tried to cut deals or thought they . . . especially Pappen and Hindenberg, could hold him in check. Big mistake. They were dealing with a carpet-chewing demoniac [literally, not metaphorically], a Nietzschean superman amoral antichrist political messiah (cf. the visual here if you doubt me) who did not hesitate to be blasphemous or to seek to subvert the churches with a false racial-political gospel. Quickie. KF kairosfocus
For a less ideologically-driven perspective, perhaps, than, KF's or mine, here is a presumably-disinterested perspective on the troubled Ukraine: http://vaticaninsider.lastampa.it/en/world-news/detail/articolo/ucraina-ukraine-ucrania-32494/ Axel
From your #42, kairosfocus: 'It is smart enough to cut deals with industrialists and other groups, and worm its way to power, unchecked power.' Not quite. The industrialists needed no encouragement to support Hitler: he was their baby. That of most of the liberal professions, too, the monied people. (Just as our far-right, backwoodsmen, Tory politicians and their industrialist puppeteers did not need to be sweet-talked into supporting that most wretched of demagogues, M Thatcher.) The latter, so much so, that train-loads of books chronicling the works of the likes of Mengele in the concentration camps, mandated to be delivered to all the physicians and lawyers in the country, simply went missing. None was ever delivered. Indeed, before WWII, the monied people in the West (also the Antipodes), at one point reached a truly scandalous pitch of fanatical admiration and support for Mussolini, Hitler, and fascism, generally. As, indeed, the continuing security of Franco and Salazar in the Iberian peninsula attested. No regime changes contemplated there! And let's just cast a veil over what's been going on in South America, from long before WWII. Axel
kairofocus, I can't understand how blind you can be to the reality of our geopolitics. Read this piece on the cluborlov.com blog, and the four on the topic of the Ukraine, above it. The one immediately above it is not germane. There are only three certainties in life: death, taxes, and the West will be the wrong'uns in any geopolitical imbroglio. As for Kerry's hilariously hypocritical admonishment of Russia's role in the affair..! It beggars belief. Axel
Nasty developments in Ukraine: 1 --> Warning shots fired at a Ukrainian aircraft near the emerging "border": http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10685346/Ukraine-crisis-warning-shots-at-border-confirm-new-Europes-new-frontier.html 2 --> Foreign minister Lavrov of Russia says crisis created "artificially": http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26495378 >> Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov: "This crisis was not created by us" Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said the crisis in Ukraine was "created artificially for purely geopolitical reasons". >> . . . a classic twist-about, turnspeech blame projecting propagandistic accusation. A tactic notorious from 1938. 3 --> US State Dept gives pessimistic summary http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-crisis-tension-escalates-on-ground-in-crimea-1.2565033 >> U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned Russia on Saturday that any steps to annex Ukraine's Crimea region would close the door to diplomacy, a U.S. State Department official said. Kerry's latest telephone call with his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, came as the standoff between occupying Russian forces and besieged Ukrainian troops intensified in Crimea. "He made clear that continued military escalation and provocation in Crimea or elsewhere in Ukraine, along with steps to annex Crimea to Russia would close any available space for diplomacy, and he urged utmost restraint," the official said. >> Not good. KF PS: here is the Wiki summary: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_crisis kairosfocus
Reuters on the cyberattacks in Ukraine: http://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-authorities-suffer-cyber-attacks-141351496--finance.html kairosfocus
edited at request (have to leave a trace given recent accusations) JGuy
edited at request . . . JGuy
Can't see beyond the headlines for FT, doesn't surprise me though, Internet and networks are now vital to government. We all better look to our firewalls, as this sort of weapons strength malware will spread far and wide. I once found Stuxnet on one of my machines in a malware scan. KF kairosfocus
JG: That sounds a lot like the old KGB wet affairs Dept. Let us not forget that in 1979 the Afghan President (a communist) who invited in Russian troops was apparently killed by them in a few weeks thereafter. KF kairosfocus
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2014/03/07/world/europe/ap-eu-ukraine-sniper-mystery.html?ref=world vs. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/05/ukraine-bugged-call-catherine-ashton-urmas-paet vs other possibilities JGuy
Cyber warfare: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/615c29ba-a614-11e3-8a2a-00144feab7de.html#axzz2vMGiPj6Y JGuy
Voting under the gun. They obviously think very little of world opinion. kairosfocus
Interesting voting ballot ends up... Heads = join Russia ... Tails = join Russia: http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/two-choices-in-crimean-referendum-yes-and-yes-338745.html JGuy
F/N: Geostrategic observations. First, the USA is the successor to the British Empire as leading oceanic power. That means that global trade is critically dependent on US capacity and will to hold the trade choke points open, whether regionally significant or globally significant. (That is how Britain -- for all its sins -- held the line open from 1805 - 15 on to 1914, securing a base for the first waves of industrialised global trade and progress that forever changed the world.) The problem is, America is also its own continent in a state, and tends to want to ignore the wider world, save in fits and starts; the sustained 40 year Cold War effort being the exception triggered by the existential threat of Soviet nukes. Even that was hard to sustain. From 1979 on, WW IV has been building up as a slow burn conflict with resurgent Islamism allied to remnants of revanchist losers of the Cold War, de facto WW III. The 9/11 attacks, a decapitation strike attempt, should be seen in that light, as should the ongoing Iranian sprint to nukes now being given cover by Russia, an Iranian ally. The US post 9/11 strategy was to hit Afghanistan and Iraq not only for their own value but as strategic pincers for Iran. Then, the forces of freedom in Iran should have been backed to the hilt . . . the 2009 uprising over a stolen election was the perfect opportunity. But, there is a civilisational civil war pushed by neomarxist progressives and their allies, who hold disproportionate influence thanks to sanctuaries in the academy, the media and foundations plus government. These same are the core of the radical secularist ideological push that so likes to dress itself up in the holy lab coat. On their world narrative, the USSR was the vanguard of progress, never mind a few cracked skulls along the way. And, the right wing is held to be nazism, which the US right wing is viewed as being . . . Bushitler and Christofascist are not mere schoolyard taunts they are emblems of a ruthless ideology pushing well poisoning, so the US is deemed the biggest global threat in many ways, a threat to be curbed and hobbled, hamstrung if possible. In fact, as simple history will show, Nazism means, National Socialist German Workers Party, and Mussolini came out of Socialism. Fascism is essentially statist political messianism with amoral nihilistic Nietzschean impulses that sees the superman figure as saviour of victim mass groups. It is smart enough to cut deals with industrialists and other groups, and worm its way to power, unchecked power. Unchecked power is the means to utter dominance. Mix in marginalisation, demonisation, slander against centres of opposition, and an all too familiar threat emerges: fascism remixed is the real global threat and it mainly comes from those who look like rescuers who promise to use the state to defend mass victim groups. From 2008, the neomarxist progressives have had their dream opportunity, with an elected minority race Ivy League educated president of the US who is a disciple of Alinsky's Chicago School of community organisers . . . notice, how that never seems to get clearly defined? No prizes for guessing why. And so, the sort of geostrategic folly we are seeing is no accident or mere bumbling. It is the working out of an agenda of breathtaking scope. Only, reality, in the shape of a chess-playing, bear-riding former KGB Colonel, has come a-knocking. With Iran's nukes waiting in the wings. We are back to 1938, as Palin warned 5 years ago, and we are again found wanting. But this time, nukes are in play. Nukes that are getting into ever more irresponsible hands. KF kairosfocus
JG: Yup, though a parliamentary vote under the guns of an occupying force is questionable. Putin evidently hopes to profit from making clouds of complicating confusion. Thing is, dismemberment of Ukraine by demanding provincial plebiscites seems a likely next demand. Shades of 1938, with a higher degree of sophistication. For that matter, an overall vote would have put N Ireland in Eire, province by province produced what we see and led to the infamous troubles. Maybe some sort of cantons basis on the Swiss model? KF kairosfocus
This will complicate matters: http://news.yahoo.com/big-power-talks-ukraine-crisis-little-progress-003521587--business.html JGuy
JWT, I have added a YouTube clip with the full bugged conversation. KF PS: It is instructive that while many are hot about the NSA threat, few seem to recognise the significance of not one but two taped conversations on this crisis coming from Russia. It seems to me that we now have to regard any phone conversation, any email etc as subject to interception by any and all of a doubtless growing list of alphabet soup agencies around the world. Maybe too, all our PCs, Tablets and Smart Phones. Looks like we all are going to have to encrypt what we want to keep as private. And do it right. A key take-home lesson. kairosfocus
JG, 35, Let's clip:
An American anchor working for state-owned television station Russia Today quit on air on Wednesday. Liz Wahl, in the network's D.C. bureau, announced she could no longer be "part of a network that whitewashes the actions of Putin. I'm proud to be an American and believe in disseminating the truth, and that is why, after this newscast, I am resigning." "It actually makes me feel sick that I worked there," Wahl told The Daily Beast exclusively. She had been planning this move for some time. "When I came on board from the beginning I knew what I was getting into, but I think I was more cautious and tried to stay as objective as I could," she said, explaining that she was repeatedly censured by her superiors. The Kremlin's influence over RT is subtle, Wahl said, but management manipulates its employees, punishing those who stray from the narrative. "In order to succeed there you don’t question," Wahl explained.
Why did she go there to work in the first place? It seems that RT, like too many other major media, is manipulative and to be regarded warily. KF PS: JWT, the US used troops already in Panama in 1989. It was still an invasion, and had highly questionable elements. PPS: I have not commented on the internal Ukrainian crisis, which seems more an excuse than a reason. There may be all sorts of wrongs on all sides there. Let's pick up the CNN -- hardly a Yellow Journalism War press source on this -- clip:
(CNN) -- Don't read too much into the conversation. That was the message Wednesday from Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Paet after a phone call between him and European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton was leaked. In the recording, which was posted to YouTube and picked up by Russian media, Paet talks about his recent visit to Ukraine. He says a doctor named "Olga" told him opponents of Ukraine's ousted President may have been responsible for deadly sniper fire. President Viktor Yanukovych fled more than a week ago in the wake of protests in Kiev's Independence Square, where snipers from nearby rooftops killed scores of people. "(Olga) can say that it is the same handwriting, the same type of bullets, and it's really disturbing that now the new coalition that -- they don't want to investigate what exactly happened. There is now stronger and stronger understanding that behind snipers, it was not Yanukovych, but it was somebody from the new coalition," Paet told Ashton. [--> whose handwriting? and in the former Soviet Union, that people will have similar equipment and ammunition would be unsurprising. Also, what level of double dealing and Agent Provocation is at work we need to find out, we are dealing with a KGB Colonel turned President here.] She replied: "I think we do want to investigate ... I didn't pick that up. That's interesting. Gosh." Paet's office released a statement Wednesday that confirmed the authenticity of the recording. It said the call took place on February 26. "Foreign Minister Paet was giving an overview of what he had heard the previous day in Kiev and expressed concern over the situation on the ground. We reject the claim that Paet was giving an assessment of the opposition's involvement in the violence," the statement read. [--> Not exactly a confirmation] "It is extremely regrettable that phone calls are being intercepted," said Paet in the same statement. "The fact that this phone call has been leaked is not a coincidence." Ashton's office declined to comment on the conversation, saying she does not discuss leaks.
Ukraine's internal mess is the excuse, what is geostrategically significant is Putin's move. kairosfocus
Russia’s 25,000-troop allowance & other facts you may not know about Crimea The media many trust described in hysterical tones how the Autonomous Republic of Crimea was under a full-scale Russian invasion with headlines like: “Ukraine says Russia sent 16,000 troops to Crimea”, “Ukraine crisis deepens as Russia sends more troops into Crimea,” as well as “What can Obama do about Russia's invasion of Crimea?”. Facts, and ardent statements by top Russian diplomats were totally ignored by the western ‘war press’. ...
The Estonian Foreign Ministry has confirmed the recording of his conversation with EU foreign policy chief is authentic. Urmas Paet said that snipers who shot at protesters and police in Kiev were hired by Maidan leaders. http://rt.com/news/estonia-confirm-leaked-tape-970/
What does the western propaganda machinery say?
Don't read too much into the conversation. http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/05/world/europe/ukraine-leaked-audio-recording/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
"Video: RT Anchor Quits On Air" [note: RT = Russia Today] http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2014/03/05/rt-anchor-quits-on-air.html JGuy
F/N: An in a nutshell summary on the treaties that seem not worth the paper they are written on . . . and which ring warning bells in Capitals all over the world:
The Budapest Memorandum of December 1994, signed by the U.S., Britain, and Russia, after Ukraine signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty as a non-nuclear state [--> thus requiring surrender of nukes in its territory, which would have indubitably checked Putin from what he just did . . . ], affirmed that the three countries [--> the Main Euro-Atlantic Nuke powers] would refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine. The Distinctive Partnership Charter of 1997 is an agreement between Ukraine and NATO committing the NATO Allies to continue to support Ukrainian sovereignty and independence, and the principle of inviolability of frontiers. [--> And, apart from phone calls etc, what has been done in this light?] The Obama administration is aware of these agreements but has not implemented them. [--> Ditto, Cameron, Ditto Merkel, Ditto, ditto, ditto . . . ] Like Obama himself, other members of the U.S. administration, including Secretary of State John Kerry and Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, have engaged in conversations with their Russian or Ukrainian counterparts to no particular end. These conversations by U.S. and European officials have led not to any resolution, but rather to displays of weakness and even absurdity . . . [read the story . . . ]
Chilling, and exactly what does not seem to be the pivot of the news on the subject. One wonders why. On assumption that we know the lessons of all too relevant history . . . at least as well as the much derided Mrs Palin. KF kairosfocus
VJT: Thanks ever so much, very important. I will go through and see if I should add to OP shortly, DV. Working on a teleconference rig-up and multimedia rig-up for a training/conference room. What a difference 13 years since 2000/2001 makes! But, I am back to looking at boundary zone/pressure zone mikes. Looks like Logitech has a steal on web cams for the level of conferencing I need, and there is a multimedia wireless keyboard that would have been wonderful back in the day! KF PS: Looks like I should note there is a limit that used to be 7, for links in any one post; beyond which, it goes to mod pile. Someone released this before I got to it just now. kairosfocus
Hi kairosfocus, Re the situation in Ukraine, here are some useful links: Time Ukraine stares down Russia Many Ukrainians want Russia to invade 4 Reasons Putin is already losing in Ukraine Christian Science Monitor: Why some Pentagon officials would prefer restraint Another odd day in Russian-occupied Ukraine Crisis in Ukraine: Obama's options appear limited Telegraph So Russia is going to abandon the dollar as a reserve currency? Good luck with that one Yahoo News Analysts: Russia unlikely to pull back in Crimea Japan's embrace of Russia under threat with Ukraine crisis World Observer: This Is The Gas Pipeline Map That Shows Why The Crisis In Ukraine Affects All Of Europe The American Spectator: Crimea River Putin's Sudetenland Markets Scream and Yawn Over Ukraine A Quarrel in a Far-Away Country American Thinker: Will Ukraine Send the World into War? Is Putin in Touch with reality? Putin doesn't Threaten our National Security Lawmakers Probe CIA Failure in Ukraine Putin Teaches Kerry and Obama How to Play Chess The Russian Bear Roars And here is an actual voice recording of Alfred Lord Tennyson reading "The Charge of the Light brigade" in 1890: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkqUq26z1CE vjtorley
F/N 3: I have seen some reference to a 1998 "guarantee" to Ukraine from Clinton et al. Any sign of that being serious, and that Putin takes such seriously, more than the climb-down over the Syria red line recently? Shades of France failing to back up its Versailles position in 1936 about the German re-occupation of the Rhineland, and British leaders saying that's just a man going back into his own backyard, then backing down on Austria and Czechoslovakia then trying to stand up over Poland. I find the lack of historical reference in the dismissive rhetoric trying to brush off Palin again, highly instructive. There is a deep rooted ideological hostility at work here that is blinding a lot of people to uncomfortable lessons of History. I suggest the notorious Churchill bust needs to come back to the White House, along with a full set of Churchill's History of the Second World War. The first volume on the run up in the 1930's will make instructive reading over Russia, Iran, North Korea etc. KF PS: I believe IIRC that Kennedy made Churchill an honorary American Citizen and issued him a US Passport. kairosfocus
F/N 2: Remember, Palin's prediction of "scenario four" was AFTER Putin had attacked Georgia in 2008. KF kairosfocus
Kyiv Post has the transcript of Putin's Mar 4 news conference, in English. JG thanks for the link to that Ukrainian Newspaper. KF kairosfocus
F/N: Onlookers, observe how after 24 hours the ever so many hostile observers and pouncers who hang around UD have been silent on how the "dumb fundy" -- Palin -- read Putin right all the way back to 2008, while the secularist humanism-influenced Foreign Policy establishment, in eagerness to dismiss her, got it so profoundly wrong. We then need to ask some very pointed questions about the now so pervasive stereotypical, scapegoating assumption and attitude that "Creationists" design thinkers and theists (remember, Lewontin-Sagan: believers in imaginary demons . . . loaded word fallacy already . . . leading to irrational views that fail EVERY reasonable test . . . scapegoating ad hominem), especially Christians who take the Bible seriously, are "ignorant, stupid, insane or wicked." Given their announced tactic of refusing debate save where they think they can make us look foolish, that refusal to come to the thread speaks volumes. We can take it to the bank that they have monitored with malicious intent. KF kairosfocus
JG: If you have a long-planned set of exercises and an ICBM test, and a crisis blows up, if you do not want to intimidate, you postpone the exercise. The design inference on this complex and specific pattern holds. Putin is playing brinksmanship and is telling the world you can do nothing to block my reconquest of the parts of the Ukraine I want. KF kairosfocus
This shortened link to the Financial Times page didn't work. FWIW: The article title was "Russia watchers say military manoeuvre was long in the making". JGuy
I'm guilty of not reading my posted/linked article. My question to Robert seems answered in the opening of the article: "A U.S. official said the United States had received proper notification from Russia ahead of the test and that the initial notification pre-dated the crisis in Crimea. The Russian Defence Ministry could not be reached for comment." Still, one could be reasonably skeptical and question whether the movement into Crimera was known in advance of the scheduled ICBM test. This article at least suggests the military move into Crimea was known about for some time: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3a8833b6-a230-11e3-87f6-00144feab7de.html#axzz2v54RLVtG Related: http://www.forbes.com/sites/gregsatell/2014/03/01/5-things-you-should-know-about-putins-incursion-into-crimea/ JGuy
F/N: I trust the above, in light of the OP, also suffices to expose the destructive, deceitful, toxic nature of yet another increasingly common tactic: turnabout, blame the targetted victim accusations. Unfortunately, this seems to be a favourite stratagem of the Darwinist fever swamp denizens, and even those who are more genteel are prone to use it in subtler form, as Mr Nye plainly did. TSZ, I trust you are listening. KF kairosfocus
RB: I hear you, and I add JG thanks. I think, though -- post Nye-Ham debate -- this area is also connected, through the influence of systems of thought on top level decision-making, i.e. ethics. Ideas have consequences, and with ideas influencing great power decision making/influencing elites, those consequences come out strategically. We have a civilisation whose leadership seem to repeatedly get things systematically wrong . . . a sign of a degraded, endarkened, Plato's cave-ish mindset. So, let us trace to worldview roots just a tad. Remember, one of the main arguments Mr Nye recently deployed is how in his mind "Creationism" cripples a civilisation technologically, economically and so forth by undermining "Science" and support for it. That "Science" of course repeatedly boils down to Evolutionary Materialism-dominated Scientism wedded to Progressivist statism that uses welfare concerns, health concerns, "victim" class concerns, environmental concerns and so forth as means to ever more infiltrate,dominate, regulate and control pivotal institutions, aided and abetted by academics and their media mouthpieces. So, it is entirely in order to both directly answer through history of ideas and case studies that Design thought, Theism and even Creationism are compatible with Sci-Tech progress and expertise, AND to go for the indirect leverage of exposing the geo-strategic, civilisational, governance, cultural, legal and regulatory, economic, social and sci-tech etc consequences of imposing Lewontinian a priori materialism dressed up in a lab coat on our civilisation. Let us remind ourselves of Lewontin's agenda again, noticing how his ilk intends to put on the lab coat to gain unchecked power and to scapegoat and marginalise:
. . . to put a correct view of the universe into people's heads we must first get an incorrect view out [--> see how they assume they are right and are getting rid of a mass delusion?] . . . the problem is to get [hoi polloi, the common people] to reject irrational and supernatural explanations of the world, the demons that exist only in their imaginations [--> theism is delusion, borderline lunacy, in such minds, which is an outrage that SHOULD have been sharply corrected], and to accept a social and intellectual apparatus, Science, as the only begetter of truth [--> NB: this is a knowledge claim about knowledge and its possible sources, i.e. it is a claim in philosophy not science; it is thus self-refuting, one of several ways evolutionary materialist scientism is self-refuting and so, ironically, we already see who are truly delusional playing a projection, scapegoating and turnabout accusation blame the intended target game]. . .
We have already seen the firing of opening Kulturkampf shots, but there is more, on the pivotal cultural institution, science:
To Sagan, as to all but a few other scientists, it is self-evident
[--> actually, science and its knowledge claims are plainly not immediately and necessarily true on pain of absurdity, to one who understands them; this is another logical error, begging the question, confused for real self-evidence; whereby a claim shows itself not just true but true on pain of patent absurdity if one tries to deny it . . . ]
that the practices of science provide the surest method of putting us in contact with physical reality, and that, in contrast, the demon-haunted world rests on a set of beliefs and behaviors that fail every reasonable test [--> i.e. an assertion that tellingly reveals a hostile mindset, not a warranted claim] . . . . It is not that the methods and institutions of science somehow compel us to accept a material explanation of the phenomenal world, but, on the contrary, that we are forced by our a priori adherence to material causes [--> another major begging of the question . . . ] to create an apparatus of investigation and a set of concepts that produce material explanations, no matter how counter-intuitive, no matter how mystifying to the uninitiated.
At this stage, Science has been subverted into Scientism driven by materialist redefinition of Science itself. As clear a declaration of intent as we will find. But it goes on, declaring that materialism is non-negotiable, once they have embedded it in the core of science. So, if we are going to set things right, we are going to have to take a fight to the central keep of subverted science, i.e. Scientism:
Moreover, that materialism is absolute [[--> i.e. here we see the fallacious, indoctrinated, ideological, closed mind . . . ], for we cannot allow a Divine Foot in the door.
A declaration of Kulturkampf against not only theism and theists, but the Almighty Himself, who has already been -- in their arrogant declarations -- dismissed as a demonic figment of deluded imaginations. But, our man intends to rationalise, so let us read on, to see just what those who are ever so quick to falsely accuse us of quote-mining are ever so eager to imagine is justification for the outrages above:
The eminent Kant scholar Lewis Beck used to say that anyone who could believe in God could believe in anything. [--> this is nonsense, but if you have blindly nodded yes, yes so far, you will be taken in by this slander that the slightest serious acquaintance with theistic thought would at once render laughable] To appeal to an omnipotent deity is to allow that at any moment the regularities of nature may be ruptured, that miracles may happen.
[--> Rubbish, ill-informed, delusional materialist rubbish reduced to silly ideological talking points. However, perhaps the second saddest thing is that some actually believe that these last three sentences that express hostility to God and then back it up with a loaded strawman caricature of theism and theists JUSTIFY what has gone on before. As a first correction, accurate history -- as opposed to the commonly promoted rationalist myth of the longstanding war of religion against science -- documents (cf. here, for starters) that the Judaeo-Christian worldview nurtured and gave crucial impetus to the rise of modern science through its view that God as creator made and sustains an orderly world. Similarly, for miracles -- e.g. the resurrection of Jesus -- to stand out as signs pointing beyond the ordinary course of the world, there must first be such an ordinary course, one plainly amenable to scientific study. The saddest thing is that many are now so blinded and hostile that, having been corrected, they will STILL think that this justifies the above. But, nothing can excuse the imposition of a priori materialist censorship on science, which distorts its ability to seek the empirically warranted truth about our world.]
[[From: “Billions and Billions of Demons,” NYRB, January 9, 1997. Bold emphasis and notes added]
That is as plain and contempt-laced a declaration of Kulturkampf as you will find anywhere, anytime, in all of history. Thank you for letting the cat out of the bag, Mr Lewontin. These guys have us set up to be scapegoats, with all the underlying hostility and enmity that entails. No wonder they don't seem to care to learn the truth and respect it or to respect duties of care to fairness and to innocent reputation. So, I refuse to be outflanked culturally. That is why I intend to highlight news-linked issues connected to science, worldviews & society. Mr Nye, you threw the first punch. We will finish the fight. Bully-boys, the free pass is over. KF kairosfocus
Robert. I can sympathize with your concern. But this isn't a small or simple case of geopolitics - at least it doesn't seem so. As you said, you didn't know there was a problem. So, how serious could it get? Hopefully, we don't only figure it out by experiencing a nuclear strike near one of our home cities. I'm not saying that is likely, but the events that are going on seem to have potential for that general direction. Since off topic threads can happen, if there ever is one, I'd rather it be either particularly funny-or-interesting or something relevant to life. In this case, the issue isn't just geopolitics, but a recipe for the possibility of a war breaking out on the Eastern front of Europe which seems has potential of spreading out easily... maybe even to your country. Anyway, semi-off-topic on this off-topic topic, if you didn't care much for KF's historical pattern detection in the OP... Try using some tool used in intelligent design theory... such as the explanatory filter, and see if it works here: Was Russia test firing of the ICBM missile intelligently designed to act as a warning shot, or was it an already long scheduled test that occurred by chance when there was a possible threat of conflict between nations? ...or... As you kind of approached it, it could even open up other discussions on something like morality - which is a common topic in this forum. ... I could be wrong in defending this thread. But so far, I don't think it's any real threat to the origins debate in this forum, much less to our culture as a whole. And it seems it may have made one person aware of potentially globally impacting crisis - you ;) ... Love ya too brother man. JGuy
Love you guys but NO i see no justification for a origins forum to care about geopolitics. I never even knew their was trouble. I don't pay attention. Is the african prez up to a sad thing like this? NOPE. It seems to follow the same equation. Who owns what? Are the boundaries legitimate? They never were before however its been time eh. The important moral issue is DO not murder. Its murder if they try to get their way by killing people. Someone makes the first kill motive and first shot. Stop the killing rights and its mostly over. By the way the bad guys in syria were the rebels. They were the murderers. Love UD but please kill this interest in geopolitics. We are engaged in a intellectual invasion of a wrongful empire of error. Enough to do. Robert Byers
JG, not very subtle. KF kairosfocus
"Russia test-fires ICBM amid tension over Ukraine" http://news.yahoo.com/russia-test-fires-icbm-amid-tension-over-ukraine-193003190--sector.html;_ylt=AwrBJR9IKhZTKSMAfjrQtDMD JGuy
BA: You may find the comment and vid on Venezuela and Cuba linked in the OP interesting. Fiddling while Rome burns. KF kairosfocus
PS: More from West:
"This whole thing – we saw it happen back with Adolf Hitler with the Sudetenland, we're going to go ahead and protect ethnic Germans. The same thing happened with Putin in 2008. We're going to go in and protect ethnic Russians in Georgia. This is part of that strategic design. This has been a well-laid-out plan. Military to military, those are the type of things you're going to see happening," he said.
You can bet that is basically what Palin was thinking in 2008 after Georgia. The $64,000 question is why did Foreign Affairs pooh pooh that back then, when this is exactly the sort of multiple moves ahead thinking that needs to be going on? kairosfocus
Allen West, fmr Lt Col, US Army:
"Let's start looking at expanding NATO to some of these other countries, especially the Baltic countries, which are really going to be concerned. We can start looking at some military-to-military exercises. We can bring in small units into some other countries to show that we are looking at a power projection, a force presence that is there," he said. "And maybe even John Kerry can talk to the leadership, the interim government there in Ukraine, and ask 'would you like to have some small Special Forces-type of units to work with your soldiers with training and things of that nature?' You've got to show some type of seriousness and not just this thing about economic sanctions." West went on to criticize the Obama administration's reluctance to use force when it comes to legitimate U.S. interests. "Well, it's a huge lack of assertiveness, really, when you go back to looking at what the Special Forces mission is, called FID, Foreign Internal Defense. I mean, that's a viable training mission that they have. This is not being provocative. This is something where we say, 'hey, we're looking to have this type of security agreement,'" he argued.
Why wasn't 3 moves ahead chess in play already? KF kairosfocus
NewsMax cites Albright (isn't she originally Hungarian?):
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s explanation for his country’s invasion of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula — that it’s a humanitarian mission in response to a coup — is "delusional," former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said Tuesday on CNN. "Either he doesn’t have the facts, or he’s being fed propaganda," Albright said. "There are no calls for assistance." Albright characterized what’s taking place as part of a long-term plan hatched by Putin to "try to recreate some form of relationship between Ukraine and Moscow." Putin’s decision to use force "to respond to pretend provocations" is not a legal or ethical way to operate, and there is zero proof that the Russian-speaking people in the Crimean region are being harmed, Albright said. "It makes no sense," she said. "I agree with what [German Chancellor] Angela Merkel said after she spoke to him is that he’s living in some other world."
My bet is, the deposed faction or a sub-faction asked for help. A common enough story, which in some cases is staged, in others it is not. KF kairosfocus
PP: The Ukraine situation seems to be one part internal dissension and one part obvious invitation to intervene. All the way back to the Hasmoneans (successors to Judas Maccabeus) the problem with that is, those brought in don't leave. Especially if they have a long-term agenda. In this case, start with that the Ukraine was under Russian rule(and IIRC, was independent for a time after the Revolution, then fell into the Soviet orbit, then was independent again after the USSR collapsed) and that the Crimea is a main Russian Fleet base. Then, there are those pipelines. KF kairosfocus
1938 was fueled on Social Darwinism and Scientism. 2014 Ukraine situation not so much? ppolish
JG: Thanks for thoughts. Machiavelli cited the ancient Romans to the effect that when one deals with determined enemies, there is no avoiding war, it can only be postponed to the advantage of the enemies. Bridge at Andau sounds familiar, I think I read it as a teen way back, really hair raising stuff on the 56 crisis. I think our little experiment is a success, judging by hits. And your added links are very welcome. Lviv is familiar as Lvov, from reading and gaming on the East front war in the 40's. I think the list of familiar names and settings is part of what is triggering my queasy feeling. Look, this goes all the way back to the Crimean -- charge of the light brigade -- war! The poem, and note the key point on blundering:
The Charge of the Light Brigade Half a league, half a league, ? Half a league onward, All in the valley of Death, ? Rode the six hundred. 'Forward, the Light Brigade! Charge for the guns' he said: Into the valley of Death ? Rode the six hundred. 'Forward, the Light Brigade!' Was there a man dismay'd? Not tho' the soldiers knew ? Some one had blunder'd: Theirs not to make reply, Theirs not to reason why, Theirs but to do and die: Into the valley of Death ? Rode the six hundred. Cannon to right of them, Cannon to left of them, Cannon in front of them ? Volley'd and thunder'd; Storm'd at with shot and shell, Boldly they rode and well, Into the jaws of Death, Into the mouth of Hell ? Rode the six hundred. Flash'd all their sabres bare, Flash'd as they turned in air Sabring the gunners there, Charging an army while ? All the world wonder'd: Plunged in the battery-smoke Right thro' the line they broke; Cossack and Russian Reel'd from the sabre-stroke Shatter'd and sunder'd. Then they rode back, but not Not the six hundred. Cannon to right of them, Cannon to left of them, Cannon behind them ? Volley'd and thunder'd; Storm'd at with shot and shell, While horse and hero fell, They that had fought so well Came thro' the jaws of Death, Back from the mouth of Hell, All that was left of them, ? Left of six hundred. When can their glory fade? O the wild charge they made! ? All the world wonder'd. Honour the charge they made! Honour the Light Brigade, ? Noble six hundred!
KF PS: One of the survivors, it seems, was run over by a train at 70 or thereabouts . . . kairosfocus
The book: "The Bridge at Andau" I haven't read it, but one review of it was intriguing to me. It might be an enlightening book to read on Soviet war machine - as observed in Hungary where resistance succeeded in some parts for a time. If I ever felt like reading a history book on the war in Europe those days, this would probably be among some likely choices for me. But seems reading such books would be a bit depressing. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bridge_at_Andau JGuy
"History shows - although I don't want to use too many historical comparisons - that those who appease all the time in order to preserve peace usually only buy a little bit of time." I believe that was attributed to Poland's current prime minister here: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/02/us-ukraine-crisis-poland-idUSBREA210KY20140302 Which seems to be in agreement with Netanyahu's position on another geopolitical issue - dealing with Iran developing nuclear technology - and the recent "very bad deal" (as he describes it) that gives Iran time to keep developing. JGuy
Sanctions card brandished.. "Ukraine crisis: EU gives Russia 48-hour deadline to return troops to barracks in Crimea" http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10674260/Ukraine-crisis-EU-gives-Russia-48-hour-deadline-to-return-troops-to-barracks-in-Crimea.html JGuy
Correction: "Maybe not yet… not eventually…." Should read: "Maybe not yet… but eventually…." Also, that's not saying the Russia-Ukraine situation is the trigger.... I don't know.... I'm just saying it looks like there will eventually be a world-wide nuclear exchange. JGuy
It will all eventually culminate into nuclear war. Maybe not yet... not eventually.... Below is a three part video with a very compelling breakdown of Zechariah 5. The guy behind this video is legit and a straight shooter - maybe a bit of a pun since he's a former Army sniper. Nuclear War in prophecy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETvQ2YpaRAU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FwRQmb4SIk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6XreWMcFjY JGuy
This has been on my mind a lot as well. And I also have an uneasy feeling. It could be the same as the Russian land grab over Georgia. The same excuses, and also in a time occupied by the fog of Olympic cover. Same exact scenario, except this time Ukraine may have a stronger case to protect their strategic land (Crimera). This is a violation of Ukrainian sovereignty. If it's anything like Georgia, it seems more of an attempt to acquire strategic land in the Black Sea. And I suspect some natural gas interests. But I don't think this will blow over so easily like the case when Russia took land from Georgia during cover of the prior Olympic games. However, as reported in the site below, Russia may be making a serious miscalculation... unless they have some aces up the sleeve (e.g. China). This may turn into a civil war in that region, I don't know. Ifso, it may make Russia very sensitive to any outside aggression. I visited the Ukraine last year. And enjoyed their culture and the people. I hope they don't suffer from a civil war. And I hope the same for the Russian people. It seems Putin is having old Soviet fantasies. And this reminds me when I use to work for an admiral in the navy. He had a poster in his office - not many years after the Soviet collapse - that's difficult to recall now, but the message was essentially warning about the Soviet bear that everyone thought was dead, and that it was not necessarily gone. Maybe it portrayed it as hibernating - but I can't recall. Anyway, the point is understood well enough. And Putin only makes the case for that warning, imo. A friend of mine linked me to a good news site if you want a more ground level report: http://www.kyivpost.com/ .... Yulia Marushevska plea regarding riots in the Ukraine: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hvds2AIiWLA Russians reportedly are behind Putin on this... but I don't know. JGuy
Hollywood parties while Venezuela burns. Guess which story is still on the front pages days later. Barry Arrington
F/N: For those looking to bone up on geostrategic issues, geopolitics more broadly . . . especially the significance of Eurasia as the world's strategic chessboard and the periphery . . . and trade choke points in a nutshell, cf here at KF. Here on the D-Day invasion and here on the Boyd OODA loop will also be helpful. KF PS: Pardon laziness, I am going to use my status as owner to put links in after posting. DONE! PPS: BTW, Israel sits on the pivot between Asia, Europe and Africa, within striking distance of the Suez canal. The Panama canal is also quite pivotal, thus also its Caribbean approaches. kairosfocus
PS: Not to mention, what lessons did Germany post 1918 have for us in understanding Russia post 1989 - 92? About 20 years to return to status as a potentially aggressive state after devastating strategic defeat sounds awfully similar, too much to be mere coincidence. kairosfocus
Q: With 20+ years to have done it, and with so many oil pipelines to Europe running through it, etc etc, why wasn't the Ukraine brought under NATO's protective umbrella, if not as a full member or some sort of associate, as a declared umbrella protected state? (Under the umbrella does not imply approval of domestic or foreign policies simply a declaration of support. What lessons were drawn from Belgium 1914 and 1940, Czechoslovakia 1938 [protected, then abandoned], and Korea 1950, or even Iraq and Kuwait 1990 . . . it was an unwise declaration in these cases that seemed to have opened the door to the invasions.) KF kairosfocus
Just thinking it may be useful to track some key news stories and share our observations and links. kairosfocus

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