forecasting – Uncommon Descent

Culture Intelligent Design Peer review Science

Fun: Why do experts suffer from a “peculiar blindness”?

Epstein:The result: The experts were, by and large, horrific forecasters.

Silver Asiatic Lönnig is certainly one of the most knowledgeable (and courageous) ID scientists in the world today. He is brilliant -... – New W.E.Loennig Interview
polistra After more thinking, I take back my criticism. If you're influential, it makes sense to stay in. Karsten is probably... – Karsten Pultz on the Church of...
jerry For those liberals interested in Georgia election law. So they can get up to speed. The Babylon Bee Fact-Checks 9... – Peter Boghossian on the Woke and...
mohammadnursyamsu The reason God is outside of science, is because the name God is defined in terms of that He makes... – Michael Egnor: Here’s why an argument...
mohammadnursyamsu Obviously it is subjectivity that is irrellevant to an atheist. And the logic / facts dealing with choice are also... – At Mind Matters News: Why believe...
ET Science only cares about reality. So it has to be able to handle the God hypothesis if that is how... – Michael Egnor: Here’s why an argument...
jerry Not C19 news but this could be used to monitor treatments for many diseases including advanced effects of C19 on... – BREAKING: President Trump, Mrs Trump &...
ET seversky is still confused as there isn't any scientific theory of evolution. The theory of evolution deals with how living... – Stephen Hawking was Sometimes Embarrassingly Stupid
William J Murray Seversky @10 said: Jerry did not mention the 63 lawsuits filed contesting the results of the 2020 election. That does... – Peter Boghossian on the Woke and...
jerry Evidence and logic are irrelevant to an atheist till they believe they have a gotcha. Then logic overrides everything no... – At Mind Matters News: Why believe...
polistra Why is Karsten still attending and giving money to a church that explicitly doesn't want him there, and explicitly treats... – Karsten Pultz on the Church of...
jerry Disingenuous and wrong nearly 100% of the time Jerry did not mention the 63 lawsuits Jerry did not say anything... – Peter Boghossian on the Woke and...
bornagain77 Seversky states, However much you believe otherwise, the theory of evolution says nothing about human beings or any other animals... – Stephen Hawking was Sometimes Embarrassingly Stupid
polistra Good point. Maybe the effect should be renamed, since cocktail parties were never a typical experience for most humans. Filtering... – From Hugh Ross: Language involves biological...
BobRyan Bob O'H: To say something should exist is very different from having witnessed something. If something is not witnessed and... – Michael Egnor: Here’s why an argument...
Bob O'H We never observe black holes just as we never can observe the Big Bang. We can only infer — by... – Michael Egnor: Here’s why an argument...
Karen McMannus chuckdarwin: That it may have originally evolved in aquatic vs. terrestrial fauna is more significant. However, it is not clear... – Would you believe… that the brain-eye...
Querius Seversky @17, Third, Christians are only able to hold a consistent set of beliefs about their faith by ignoring significant... – Stephen Hawking was Sometimes Embarrassingly Stupid
Querius Seversky @16, The only people here who "pontificate" are those who make completely unsupported assertions under the assumption that their... – Stephen Hawking was Sometimes Embarrassingly Stupid
Querius Eukaryotic microorganisms are extremely successful and supposedly are far more evolved than most other organisms on the planet. They react... – At Scientific American: Why we live...
Querius In science, a strong theory is able to anticipate findings in future research, a poor theory has lousy predictive ability... – Would you believe… that the brain-eye...