forecasting – Uncommon Descent

Culture Intelligent Design Peer review Science

Fun: Why do experts suffer from a “peculiar blindness”?

Epstein:The result: The experts were, by and large, horrific forecasters.

kairosfocus DS, Let's roll the tape on how this exchange started: Sev, 846: >>Atheism is the position of disbelief in a... – Is the USA going over the...
BobRyan Wearing a watch was a death sentence. When a third of the Cambodian people were slaughtered, any reason was justifiable. – Richard Dawkins is getting canceled again
Truthfreedom 2 BobRyan And they killed people for the mortal sign of wearing glasses. – Richard Dawkins is getting canceled again
Truthfreedom Seems like a remarkably inefficient design… Uhmm... "Inefficient" respect to what? An infinite being has no shortage of materials. And... – New edition of Inference Review features...
BobRyan EDTA @ 6 Edison had a large group of people working for him who were largely responsible for the patents... – Some thoughts from American Conservative on...
BobRyan Rather than the natural world being good or bad, perhaps the subject should be why only humans view things as... – Christian Scientific Society’s upcoming online seminar:...
BobRyan The Khmer Rouge took people from the city to work the farms, while the farmers were sent to live in... – Richard Dawkins is getting canceled again
Querius Wow, that's amazing! I think the implications are even more stunning . . . it seems that each of the... – Researchers have been confirming quantum entanglement...
kairosfocus DS, agnosticism strictly is not dis-belief, active rejection but an epistemological position that one lacks adequate warrant to actively believe.... – Is the USA going over the...
polistra Krauss is just dumb. No other word for it. I don't care if he was canceled for right reasons or... – New edition of Inference Review features...
daveS KF, Note, DIS-belief or denial, not mere absence of belief. Dis, implying active rejection not mere absence. Hm, but then... – Is the USA going over the...
Elshamah Querius the code of biophotons is unknown, as is basically of all epigenetic codes. And there are many of them,... – Researchers have been confirming quantum entanglement...
EDTA >"seems like a remarkably inefficient design...An intelligent designer could have done better, would have done better, and should have done... – New edition of Inference Review features...
kairosfocus DS, Let us note Am HD as recently as 2016: a·the·ism (??th?-?z??m) n. Disbelief in or denial of the existence... – Is the USA going over the...
Mark from CO To Larry Kraus: Yes, perhaps in our limited and hubris understanding of the infinite interrelationships that are required for life,... – New edition of Inference Review features...
polistra Theism tends to go along with support for real science, but I think both are products of the same general... – Richard Dawkins is getting canceled again
daveS KF, Agnostics wishing to identify as atheists are failing a major epistemology and logic of being test, as already was... – Is the USA going over the...
kairosfocus Seversky, kindly note 859. KF – Is the USA going over the...
kairosfocus UB, a very sobering point. For me the recognition of alphanumerical, algorithmic -- so, linguistic and goal-directed -- code in... – Is the USA going over the...
kairosfocus DS, Let us start with, being a responsible, rational, significantly free being: We can readily identify at least seven inescapable... – Is the USA going over the...
jerry For Kf, You said you monitor this thread so this is for you. An article about treatments for virus infection.... – The Frontline Doctors put some "plausible"...