forecasting – Uncommon Descent

Culture Intelligent Design Peer review Science

Fun: Why do experts suffer from a “peculiar blindness”?

Epstein:The result: The experts were, by and large, horrific forecasters.

kairosfocus FH, it becomes increasingly clear that you deploy hyperskepticism to defend your orthodoxy. From 1948 to 1953 on then through... – Casey Luskin: ID as fruitful approach...
kairosfocus FH, natural selection is a dynamic-stochastic process and is of significantly random character. That is, one is shifting odds relative... – Casey Luskin: ID as fruitful approach...
Fred Hickson You do you, Kairosfocus. It's pointless trying to discuss biology with you. Your agenda does not seem to have anything... – Casey Luskin: ID as fruitful approach...
kairosfocus F/N: https://uncommondescent.com/atheism/platos-socrates-on-navigating-the-ship-of-state/ a magazine issue https://philosophynow.org/issues/101 ship of fools https://philosophynow.org/issues/101/The_Ship_of_Fools reforms article https://philosophynow.org/issues/101/Democracy_Is_Sick – Casey Luskin: ID as fruitful approach...
Fred Hickson Genetic drift is one of the basic mechanisms of evolution. In each generation, some individuals may, just by chance, leave... – Casey Luskin: ID as fruitful approach...
Fred Hickson Logically derived from confirmable evidence, evolution is understood to be the result of an unguided, unplanned process of random variation... – Casey Luskin: ID as fruitful approach...
kairosfocus FH, as we both know, a fishing reel instantiates FSCO/I, similarly the process flow network of an oil refinery, similarly... – Casey Luskin: ID as fruitful approach...
Fred Hickson Sure genetic drift happens, Querius. Population geneticist Joe Felsenstein uses the analogy of Brownian motion, an effect that is unavoidable... – Casey Luskin: ID as fruitful approach...
Fred Hickson Oh and I read Jerry Coyne's 2011 blog post, ET. The thrust of it is to do with choice of... – Casey Luskin: ID as fruitful approach...
Querius Fred Hickson @178, LOL. You gotta be kidding! Not to mention the other links you were provided, see ET's comment... – Casey Luskin: ID as fruitful approach...
Fred Hickson *chuckles* Googling got me this: https://academic.oup.com/biolinnean/article/112/2/287/2415796 Something for Upright Biped to ponder. Adaptive semiotics! – Casey Luskin: ID as fruitful approach...
polistra Odd vs even in a visual sense is important to bees. Bilateral flowers like snapdragons are literal honeytraps. A snapdragon... – At Mind Matters News: Claim: Honeybees,...
Fred Hickson Thus, he has the double challenge of arguing against the accepted paradigm of random processes together with mistaken ideas about... – Casey Luskin: ID as fruitful approach...
polistra WOW! But the 250 MYA, known to be alive, is an even bigger WOW. – 830 mya organisms found in Australia...
Fred Hickson Ten speed bicycles now? What about your hypothesis? Can you make it any less vague? – Casey Luskin: ID as fruitful approach...
ram ET: Men have to be held responsible for unwanted pregnancies. Your version of God has to be held responsible for... – At Mind Matters News: Must we...
Querius ET @174, 175, Yeah, exactly. The problem is that he's not in agreement with the current thinking in Darwinian evolution.... – Casey Luskin: ID as fruitful approach...
solemn existence Although not too germaine to the discussion, I just came across this and didn't see any UD coverage on it... – Researchers: Eukaryotes got started from a...
Belfast To slightly misquote Fasteddious, (from an earlier post of his) “ Saying “the emergence of eukaryotes DID NOT happen in... – Researchers: Eukaryotes got started from a...
ET OK, so at least Fred admits that there isn't any model for evolution by means of blind and mindless processes.... – Casey Luskin: ID as fruitful approach...
ET Learn how to read, Fred. Make your case. What Jerry posted doesn't have anything to do with your asinine question... – At Mind Matters News: Must we...