BREAKING/DEVELOPING: Russia invades Ukraine

_{kairosfocus

February 24, 2022

Geo-strategic issues, News Highlights, rhetoric}

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Wikipedia initial map of the invasion, especially note a reported incursion from western Belarus and the main weight of reported bombings and incursions in the eastern trans-Dnieper region, the DonBass

Russian forces have launched a military assault on neighbouring Ukraine, crossing its borders and bombing military targets near big cities.
A residential building in Chuguev was destroyed after it was shelled.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that Moscow’s response will be “instant” if anyone tries to take on Russia.
Ukraine has urged the UN “to do everything possible” to stop what it says is a full-scale war.

We could title this, the geostrategic price of weakness, starting with the USA. Recall here, my 2016 framework:

Of course as this seems overnight the fog of war is very much in effect and we need to bear in mind that we are unlikely to have a full or reliable picture. DEVELOPING, UPDATES TO FOLLOW

U/D Feb 25, a map of the course of the invasion:

Wikipedia’s updated but provisional map c Feb 24, showing reported lines of thrust. Note, provisional

U/D Feb 27: Wiki Map Feb 26

Wiki map c Feb 26, showing lodgement areas, thrusts and move to decapitate by taking Kiev

U/D Feb 28, let’s insert the Feb 28 Wiki map to compare:

U/D Feb 27: HT Daily Mail, a map of detail fighting near Kiev:

HT, Daily Mail, on fighting near Kiev. Seizing an airport as an air head is a known standard modern tactic for the side with air superiority. Compare Bagram in Afghanistan and its abandonment just before the US fleeing from Afghanistan

U/D, Feb 27: Geostrategic considerations:

U/D Feb 28, Putin puts nuke forces to high alert, issues implied threats, even as he agrees to talks — vid:

U/D Mar 1: Overnight on the updated operational situation map at Wikipedia:

Update overnight Feb 28/Mar 1. We see a bridgehead across the Dnieper in the South coming from Crimea, with a column advancing NW. To the N, a cluster of breakouts on the E bank are beginning to fan out and another is joining with the enclave to the E. Other columns are pushing in from the N and E, and the siege of Kharkov and Kiev are also underway. Air strikes cluster on Kiev but are spread across the whole country.

U/D, March 3: The already taken zones are being consolidated and extended and columns are surging out. Most notably, from Crimea to the West, and the thrust to Kiev is being broadened.

U/D Mar 4: VDH analyses, pivoting on the Javelin anti-tank missile:

U/D March 5, map is revised on Mar 3rd:

Notice here fresh probes from White Russia, a thrust to the W along a major road net towards Poland, a swing back towards Kiev for a thrust that was apparently aiming to pinch off a chunk of Northern Ukraine continued columns from the NE and the continuation of the western breakout from Crimea. Kiev and Kharkov seem to be holding,

U/D2 Mar 5, a Daily Mail Map:

This Daily Mail map is more outline and differs in details but tells the same basic story.

U/D May 8, a screen shot from Russian TV with a marked up encirclement in the E:

Oh yes, apparently there is an enemies list:

All EU member States,
The USA
Australia
Albania
Andorra
Czech Republic
Great Britain (including Jersey, Anguilla, British Virgin Islands and Gibraltar)
Iceland
Canada
Liechtenstein
Micronesia
Monaco
New Zealand
Norway
Republic of Korea
San Marino
North Macedonia
Singapore
Taiwan
Ukraine
Montenegro
Switzerland
Japan

They left off a raft of UK OT’s there, including Cayman, Montserrat, Turks and Caicos Islands, Bermuda, Isle of Man, Falklands, Pitcairn, St Helena, South Georgia etc. I guess they list where their offshore accounts are and got frozen?

U/D March 9, Putin in Southern Africa as a trainer for guerilla leaders, 1973:

This is my comment on an iHarare piece brought to my attention by people inclined to cheer on anything that is suggested as aiding liberation from Western Imperialism. An objection was made in the combox, that Putin’s age would be 20-ish and his official life story puts him in law school at relevant times. I noted that he was KGB and we can expect contradictory narratives, where the window is that in which military service is likely. The association with two African Presidents of the left is noteworthy. I suggest, assume it is not in fact Putin, that would only lead to, Russians were engaged in geostrategic pushes in guise of liberation movements, some of which have proved disastrous for ordinary people in certain African countries. The geostrategic point remains.

U/D: Wiki map, March 6, showing armoured thrusts far beyond the zones identified in a Russian proposal for ceasefire terms. Notice, these are by and large conservative relative to what has been shown on Russian TV, scroll up:

U/D, Mar 15 – 20: Russian forces consolidate while keeping Kiev under pressure:

The consolidation ratchets up pressure on Ukraine, the attacks on the capital can lead to decision, negotiations seem stalled over Russia’s demand for neutrality, which has already been seen as invitation to invasion. Sanctions have been put in place but are seldom decisive.

Comments

WJM @ 168 - I think he was using the other definition as in "idealistic notion that Putin has a just claim", and not the philosophical term "idealism".Silver Asiatic_{March 5, 2022
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:lol: Many people have short memory. Study the position of legacy media regarding : -abortion, trans ,lgbt(totally good), -Trump (totally bad) - vaccine(totally good)-alternative treatments(totally bad), -NATO(totally god)- Putin(totally bad).. I just find out about armed fights in separatists-areas from East Ukraine that last from 2014. Today we are in 2022. Very strange . Did US change the regime in Ukraine? Did Biden brag about changing a prosecutor in Ukraine? Biden family do "business" in Ukraine? Did US build chemical laboratories in Ukraine? Yep but you don't see it in legacy media . Blocking/ignoring all Russian information( as propaganda) it's like blacking out Pfizer vaccine studies /contracts. That is confessing the guilt and laughing in your face and showing you middle finger. Globalists are in win-win situation. Sooner or later the population will be less than a billion (war, vaccine or other lethal viruses will do the job)Lieutenant Commander Data_{March 5, 2022
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WJM, lesser of evils, all we have today. KF PS: Observe Hitler's reply to Roosevelt https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/56025532 Looks like I can clip HT NLA Oz:
HITLER'S REPLY TO PRESIDENT ROOSEVELT'S MESSAGE Will Give Assurances Provided There Is Absolute Reciprocity LONDON, April 28. OPENING his speech in the Reichstag today, Herr Hitler plunged immediately into a sarcastic reference to President Roosevelt's message and recalled that it had been published all over the world before he had seen it. He added that the democratic Press con- tained the friendly enlightenment that this tele- gram was a clever practical document aimed at burdening authoritarian States with responsi- bility for the plutocracies' warlike measures. "I DECIDED to convoke the Reich- stag to gire you a chance of hearing my reply and of either con- firming or rejecting it," said Herr Hitler. "I moreover believe that it it appropriate to follow President Roosevelt's procedure and inform the world of my reply by means similar to those used by him. "I want to express the feelings in- spired in me by tremendous historical events. I can only offer my humble thanks that Providence has called me, once an unknown soldier, to be the Fuhrer of my beloved people. Provi- dence has permitted me to find my way without bloodshed and to free my people from the deepest distress and has permitted me to fulfil a unique mission-to raise the German people from defeat and from the most dastardly-dictated treaty of all time. Has Not Injured Foreign Rights "It was my sole aim to make good that which others broke by force that with which satanic wickedness and human insensibility they destroyed and despoiled. I have taken no steps to in- jure foreign rights. I have restored only rights that were damaged 20 years ago. There is no territory at present in the Reich which has not been there from ancient times either by al- liances with it or under its sovereignty. The present confines of the Reich ex- isted long before the discovery and settlement of America by the white man. "There has burned in millions of brains since the war, a warm hope that common sense and just peace would re- ward and make happy our afflicted people. I say 'reward' because, regard- less of the decisions of historians nobody bore the responsibility for this terrible event. The peace treaties were destructive even for the victors. "For the first time it unhappily happened that men who had not fought determined the policies. The soldiers did not tender hate but these old politicians who had care- fully preserved their lives let flow over humanity in a stream made by vengeance the forces of hate, viciousness, and stupidity. "Almost 115,000,000 people were de- prived of their right of self-determina- tion by Insane politicians. When this arrangement proved a catastrophe to democratic peace, dictators of American and European origin were so cowardly that no-one would take the responsi- bility for what had happened. Anglo-German Friendship "During the whole of my political activity I have always expounded the idea of close Anglo-German friendship and collaboration. Within my movement there are innumerable others of like mind, I have never left room for doubt of my belief that the existence of this British Umpire is an inestimable valu- able factor for the whole human cul- tural and economic life. "There is no doubt that the Anglo- Saxon people have accomplished im- measurable colonising work which I sincerely admire. A genuine and lasting Anglo-German friendship, however, can be conceived only on the basis of mutual regard. The British Empire was built up when Germany was inter- nally weak. England has given the world many great men, but Germany has given no fewer. "That Germany was unable to retain her possessions and also was compelled to sacrifice many provinces was due only to her political redevelopment and the impotence resulting from it. That con- dition now has been overcome. We no longer feel inferior to Britain. Our self- esteem is equal to the Englishman's for England." Basis For Naval Treaty Removed Herr Hitler announced that he would communicate to Britain that the basis for a naval treaty had been removed. He added: "My original proposal for the voluntary restriction of naval arma- ments was baaed on the will and con- viction that war between Germany and England was impossible. This will and this conviction are alive in me today, but England's policy, official and un- official, leaves no doubt that the con- viction is not shared in London. On the contrary, the opinion prevails that no matter what conflict in which Ger- many may some day be engaged, Bri- tain will always have the side against the Reich. "I profoundly regret such a de- velopment for the only claim I ever made and shall make against Eng- land is the return of the colonies. I have already made it clear that this will never cause a military con- flict. "England holds the view that Ger- many should be opposed in all cir- cumstances and confirms this by a policy of encirclement. The basis for a naval treaty has been removed, but if Britain wishes to re-enter the nego- tiations none will be happier than I at the prospect of a clear, straightforward understanding. I never left room for doubt that it is my belief that the existence of the British Empire is of inestimable value to the whole human cultural and economic life. "Denunciation of the naval agree- ment is not a matter of military im- portance but an action of self-respect. I still hope to avoid an armament race with England." Herr Hitler disclosed that he made a definite offer to Poland that Danzig become a free State within the frame- work of the Reich. As a result of Poland's rejection he regarded the Germano-Polish treaty as no longer in existence. Reply To Roosevelt Replying to President Roosevelt Herr Hitler said the reason for fear of war lay simply in unbridled vile Press agitation. "I do not believe," he said, "that every conflict is disastrous to the world unless the world is drawn into it by nebulous pacts. I do not know what President Roosevelt means by his statement that three European and one African nation are losing their inde- pendence. On the contrary, the demo- cracies of 1918 made nations which could not have wished to be and never were. "President Roosevelt says the world is moving towards a catas- trophe. I wish to point ont that I have not conducted any war. I have expressed abhorrence of war and I am not aware for what pur- pose I should wage it. I ask the President for an explanation. "I am ready to give assurances to each State named by President Roose- velt on condition of absolute reciprocity, provided that each State wishes it itself and addresses to Germany a re- quest for such assurances together with appropriate proposals." "Most Painful Of All Problems" Herr Hitler affirmed that Germany must have access to East Prussia and described the Polish Corridor as the most painful of all the problems. "If war comes," he said, "Germany will show resistance compared with which that of 1914 will be nothing. Germany is resolved not to allow vital markets to be torn from her by methods of terrorism. "I am sceptical about President Roosevelt's suggestion that international problems can be solved at the council table. The United States shirked the greatest conference of all time, namely the League of Nations, which has not solved a single decisive international problem. "I renounced Alsace in order to pro- mote European understanding and not because I feared France. The States to which I offered neutrality cannot com- plain that I made inacceptable demands for claims. Czechoslovakia was no ex- ception. I do not think I am denying our racial principles, but I will protect Czech and German racial purity alike. "If Mr Chamberlain considers that Germany's action has nullified the Munich agreement, I will take a note of it and will draw the necessary con- clusions. I will not renounce the vital rights of Germany. "A lasting Anglo-German friendship is impossible unless Britain recognises Germany's right to live. "Mr de Valera, in a recent speech, made no charges of German aggression but accused England of having sub- jected Eire to continuous oppression. Mr de Valera was more familiar with the dangers than was President Roosevelt. "Palestine similarly has no fear of Germany, but is making appeals to the world against barbarous British methods for the benefit of Jewish inter- lopers. "President Roosevelt's suggestion that further acts of aggression are contemplated is an unfounded of- fence against the tranquillity and peace of the world. I ask the President to name the threatened States. "Germany's peace offer has been re- peatedly turned down, and, therefore Presiden! Roosevelt should appeal to others. I have had a long and prac- tical experience and I will remain scep- tical until reality has taught me better." America To Ignore Hiller's Speech NEW YORK, April 28. The Washington correspondent of the United Press states: "The United FOR THE FIRST TIME since the Great War, the Scottish Horse Sccuis have been issued with sabres. Here they are lined up for inspection at the Dunkeld House stables. Help States Government officially ignore Herr Hitler's speech tomorrow, taking the attitude that whatever it may contain, it will not be an official reply to President Roosevelt. It is felt that only a specific message addressed to White House, and not a mere declara- tion to the Reichstag, would be con- sidered a reply." Roosevelt's Offer To Mussolini The Washington correspondent of the "New York Times" exclusively states: "President Roosevelt sounded out Signor Mussolini, and through him Herr Hitler on the plan to meet them at sea or near some .neutral island such as the Azores, and they rejected the idea. The President's purpose was to learn at first hand the minimum terms for pledging lasting peace, and offer his services as an intermediary." TOKYO, April 27. It is understood that the Cabinet strongly resisted pressure by Herr Hitler to include Japan's support in tomorrow's speech. The compromise of the Prime Minis- ter (General Hiranuma) is believed to be unacceptable to Herr Hitler. LONDON, April 28. Copies of Herr Hitler's speech were forwarded by plane to London in the forenoon and delivered at the Foreign Office as an act of courtesy.
Lessons of History Deptkairosfocus_{March 5, 2022
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Seversky said:
Anyone who thinks it’s all fake news or just some sort of information potential is welcome to go and see for themselves although I suspect idealism will go straight out of the window when bullets start cracking around people’s ears and shells are exploding all around.
ROFL. If you're talking about the MRT form of idealism, you obviously have no idea what you're talking about or you would know how ridiculous your comment about bullets and shells is. Do you think that I don't believe bullets and artillery shells are real? Do you think I believe I can't be injured or killed? Anyway, the point is that I don't know if the news is fake or not, but I have long-established good reason to (1) doubt that it's real, and (2) doubt how it is being portrayed and narrated, and (3) have good reason to think it is probable that this is not even remotely a good (NATO) vs evil (Putin) scenario. IMO, at the very least, it's an evil vs evil scenario, but more likely an evil (NATO) vs not as evil (Putin) scenario, with the battlefield being a largely corrupt country in terms of government and business. But, by all means, keep reacting the way the big corporations that produce and curate your content tell you to. Keep believing what they say about the world and what is going on. Whatever floats your boat.William J Murray_{March 5, 2022
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Sev, actually, Tsar Putin I did decree a declaration of war on television. As for legitimacy of pretext, that is a different matter. KF PS, scroll up to OP to see the Wiki maps I have used to more or less track operations. They tell a sobering story that is not in the media headlines I have seen, though DM of UK seems to be trying. I will update with a DM map with commentary shortly.kairosfocus_{March 5, 2022
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F/N: Looks like three assassination attempts last week https://nypost.com/2022/03/03/ukraine-president-zelensky-survived-three-assassination-attempts/?utm_source=wnd&utm_medium=wnd&utm_campaign=syndicated
Assassins have tried to kill Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky at least three times since Russia invaded his country last week, a new report said. The assassination plots were foiled when anti-war Russians fed intel to Ukraine about two separate mercenary groups that planned to launch the attacks, the Times of London reported. “I can say that we have received information from [Russia’s Federal Security Service], who do not want to take part in this bloody war,” Ukraine’s secretary of national security and defense told local TV stations, according to the Times. The shadowy, Kremlin-backed Wagner Group was behind two of the attempts, the Times reported. If they had been or are successful, Moscow could deny direct involvement in the assassination plot.
KFkairosfocus_{March 5, 2022
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What Putin wants is irrelevant. His army is invading Ukraine without a declaration of war or any legitimate pretext. His weapons are destroying Ukrainian cities and killing Ukrainian people. Anyone who thinks it's all fake news or just some sort of information potential is welcome to go and see for themselves although I suspect idealism will go straight out of the window when bullets start cracking around people's ears and shells are exploding all around. Putin is gambling that NATO will not fight to stop him and so far he is right. What if he wins? What if NATO decides that sacrificing Ukraine to prevent WWIII is worth it? What if Biden does a Neville Chamberlain and waves a worthless piece of paper and proclaims "Peace in our time", Have they forgotten history. Did meekly handing over the Rhineland and then the Sudetenland buy off Hitler? You think Putin is going to see this a anything other than a sign of weakness?Seversky_{March 5, 2022
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I hope he lives. He will be an inspiration for the world. The world lacks spine.
Volodymyr Zelensky Transforms Germany -- and Europe
https://jewishworldreview.com/michael/barone030422.php3jerry_{March 5, 2022
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Jerry, with the collapse of the Warsaw pact and the known history of Russia, c 1992 on, what realistic option did Poland, Hungary or even the Baltic States etc have, other than petitioning NATO? Even Sweden and Finland implicitly rely on NATO's protection, but are less threatened than the above. Given what Putin has done to Ukraine since 2014, where that state surrendered its legacy nukes on mutual undertaking to safeguard security, what reason would say Poland have to rely on Russia's word? The reality is we are looking at naked aggression covered by turnabout projection, a recipe all too familiar from the 1930's. KFkairosfocus_{March 5, 2022
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Another succinct recent history of NATO, Ukraine and Russia. I’m always reluctant to read Pat Buchanan but he lays out the facts well. https://www.takimag.com/article/__trashed-5/jerry_{March 5, 2022
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Ram @154: Everything you say about Putin, what he has done/is doing, and why, is based on what?
But let’s not pretend the evil is not being perpetrated before our very eyes.
There is no evil being perpetrated right before my very eyes. There is some imagery and some talking heads providing a narrative about what that imagery is of and means on some devices I use mostly for entertainment. I have personally witnessed how the people behind the scenes of the institutions that produce what comes through those devices lie and manipulate to a degree that is astonishing. The original reason I voted for Trump the first time he ran was because virtually every single powerful institution and person of wealth and/or fame was rabidly anti-Trump. I figured that if all the corrupt elites were trying to destroy his candidacy, that might mean he wasn't "in on it" with them. I never expected him to actually win. When I see all these corrupt institutions, the famous and the wealthy all being protective of Ukraine and wanting to kill or go to war with Putin, I'm thinking he's probably the good guy in all this - or at least more a "good guy" than the seriously evil and corrupt establishment currently out to get him. And, it makes me think there's something rotten in Ukraine.William J Murray_{March 5, 2022
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Taiwan. Yes indeed. Xi is watching.ram_{March 5, 2022
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Ram, yes we are seeing grave evil that on the example of the 1930's has potential to destabilise the world. I am concerned about Taiwan. KFkairosfocus_{March 5, 2022
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U/D, Mar 5th, map showing onward thrusts. It seems Kiev continues to stoutly resist and there is a reaction, diverting a thrust in the N to try to envelop it rather than pinch off a large chunk of northern Ukraine. I think the stout resistance of Ukrainians may force a settlement. KFkairosfocus_{March 5, 2022
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WJM "KF, you do realize that NATO is as corrupt as it gets, right?" All governments are corrupt. The U.S. govt has done it's share of bad things. But Putin has just committed obvious and wanton terrorism on innocent civilians using weapons long ago outlawed by civilized nations at the Geneva Convention. Politics are complicated, but this cannot be overlooked. Are you willing to overlook it? Again, having said that, what to do about it is a worthy topic of discussion and debate. I'm an extremely anti-war person. But let's not pretend the evil is not being perpetrated before our very eyes. These are the times that try men's souls. "the mainstream media’s job is to lie to us for the agenda of our own western oligarchs. " Agreed. Wisdom is necessary to navigate the evil waters of manipulation. But please don't equate Putin's actions, and this situation, with Russia and Cuba during the CMC. That's just dumbassery. And I know you're not a dumbass. :) --Ramram_{March 5, 2022
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Ram, you are right that Putin has been a pretty ruthless bad actor, a Machiavellian Prince. Sad. KFkairosfocus_{March 5, 2022
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WJM, I have but little doubt that NATO has corruption issues and as it deals with the officialdom and especially the pols of a region in civilisational decline, there is a compounding effect. (Do I need to underscore that such corruption likely embraces specific US pols?) They even struggle to spend enough of GDP on defence. However, the notion that NATO, which at best in the cold war era always lost realistic military games with warsaw pact -- and would have faced a region wide nuking as opening moves [which they did not understand . . . 3 were prepositioned near HQ in Belgium] -- is expansionist targetting Russia is ludicrous. They know what the ghosts of Napoleon, Hindenberg-Ludendorf, Hitler, von Manstein and Guderian would warn them. As for Ukraine, they by and large did not anticipate the collapse of the USSR and tried to help manage some of the potential for chaos. I don't doubt some of the nuke materials are unaccounted for. However, the result was a geostrategic transformation, and while I don't doubt corrupt entanglement in the Ukraine, its economy and politics, there is no way that Ukraine constituted or constitutes a Nazi state headed by a Jewish former comedian. The same Ukraine that surrendered its nukes for mutual security guarantees now showing they were not worth the value of the wasted paper and ink. The feckless West has done but little, though at length Germany is suspending a pipeline deal and I hope someone will wake up to the need for the Israel-Greece-Italy pipeline. Russia initiated war behind proxies in 2014 and is prosecuting it onward now with obvious intent to resubjugate the Ukraine. KF PS, I am not simply swallowing the media, why not scroll up and see the global outline I made in 2016 for public briefings. Putin is the man behind the wild card nature of Russia. He wants to recapture control of all of Mackinder's pivot area.kairosfocus_{March 5, 2022
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WJM, I agree with some of the things you're saying, but Putin has demonstrated at this point, regardless of the corruption of NATO and Ukraine, and all the other excuses for invading a peaceful weaker country, that he is a terrorist who bombs and murders innocent civilians using horrific weapons illegal by international treaty. This cannot be overlooked. Make nuanced arguments all you want about the politics of the sititution, but the guy is pure evil at the end of the day when he wantonly murders the innocent. That's his choice. NATO didn't make him do that to civilians. I pray to God that everyone agrees with what I just said. What to do about it is a different matter, and worthy of debate. "Did we stand for the Soviet Union arming Cuba? Nope. We were willing to start WWIII to prevent that. Do we expect Putin to do anything less?" Russia put nukes into Cuba. Kennedy recoiled. Nobody has put nukes into Ukraine. Talk talk talk about them getting into NATO, which nobody serious believes will ever happen. That's a mere excuse. Look at the pipeline maps of Ukraine. Consider the rare earth minerals waiting to be mined. And Putins crazy butt-hurt feelings about the Berlin wall and the fall of the Soviet empire. Bottom line, not even close to be on the same footing as Russia putting nukes in Cuba. Moreover, Kennedy didn't murder innocent civilians with illegal (by international treaty) atmospheric bombs. You can't be serious. The guy is a terrorist by any reasonable and historical definition. Period. No debate about that now. Not even close to being analogous to the Cuban missle crisis. --Ramram_{March 5, 2022
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KF, you do realize that NATO is as corrupt as it gets, right?William J Murray_{March 5, 2022
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KF @147, I would bet dollars to doughnuts that LCD knows far, far more about what is really going on than you. It amazes me that people who know how bad the mainstream media is, who know at least something about the media's globalist oligarch masters and what they've been doing to those who do not toe the line for their agenda, would fall for their narrative on this.William J Murray_{March 5, 2022
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Vivid, today isn't 1962. At that time the USSR actually had rather few intercontinental range missiles or sub based ballistic missiles as opposed to the US. So, basing intermediate range missiles forward in Cuba made a big difference. By the early 1970's the ICBM situation was utterly different, and well do I recall in the 80's orchestrated Soviet campaigning to accuse the Americans on their Pershings while being utterly silent on the SS 20s that otherwise held Europe hostage. It isn't missiles on direct borders as an issue, there still are more than enough nukes to wipe out either the US or Russia and Europe. Who has a much more legitimate concern is Israel on rockets on its borders with chemical explosive warheads, apparently tens of thousands, many supplied by Iran. Which has threatened genocide. The real issue is, that there is a bad underlying history such that the very members of the Warsaw Pact sought protection from NATO as soon as they could, once the Iron Curtain fell. Had the Communist bloc been the worker's paradise as pretended, that would not have happened. And besides, NATO in key but nowadays mostly unspoken part serves as a means to provide assurance against re emergence of German militarism; which, the Russians do have reason for concern on the history from 1914 on. I think it is time to ask the Ukrainian speaking people of the Ukraine what they think, given their own history with Russia and Germany -- genocide from both. Though, technically, Stalin was a Georgian and Hitler an Austrian. KFkairosfocus_{March 4, 2022
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LCD “Well…You said that legacy media lies but you and the legacy media have identical views about Putin. Interesting.” I don’t make my judgements based on the legacy media nor am I hardly in lock step with their narrative. I do think that Putin has a legitimate beef. Would Americans want Russian missiles on our direct border ? , dont think so. Vividvividbleau_{March 4, 2022
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Vividbleau
LCD “I think when we talk about legacy media we should start with the presumption that everything is a lie.”
That’s because everything is a lie LOL Putin is a thug, a killer and probably a psychopath but that he is different than he was 10 years ago and some kind of “crazy” now smells like propaganda.
Well...You said that legacy media lies but you and the legacy media have identical views about Putin. Interesting. PS: 10 years ago NATO wasn't in his backyard but today is. https://twitter.com/AllTalksVideos/status/1499773821385338881Lieutenant Commander Data_{March 4, 2022
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LCD “I think when we talk about legacy media we should start with the presumption that everything is a lie.” That’s because everything is a lie LOL Putin is a thug, a killer and probably a psychopath but that he is different than he was 10 years ago and some kind of “crazy” now smells like propaganda. Vividvividbleau_{March 4, 2022
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WJM, nope, just put up a thread on media deceit with lives on the line. Yes, NATO did say it did not wish expansion and yet admitted petitioners starting with the very Poland of the Warsaw Pact. Ask yourself why the petitions and why at one point Russia at least talked about joining in too. I have not suggested that Ukraine is a nice wonderful place with perfect Democracy, in 1938 - 9, neither were Austria, Czechoslovakia, Poland or Finland. In 1939 Hitler made a reply to Roosevelt that quite accurately highlighted the wrongs of the US, UK and France. Six years later we were taught a devastating lesson on lesser of evils. As for the Cuban crisis, not parallel though Putin wishes to spin it so: Russia, an EXPANSIONIST STATE, having just seized Cuba as a colony under guise of a popular revolution, put in nukes and a brigade armed with tac nukes that came within 12 hours of being used. In 1989 - 91, the main Com Bloc collapsed, and fledgling states sought protection from a manifestly defensive alliance, on their own history of repeated conquest [Poland especially], from a state with longstanding expansionist tendencies: prison of nations was the common term. Putin is playing turnabout projection, exploiting cognitive dissonance just as Hitler did over Czechoslovakia. What Russia should be doing instead is giving up its addiction to expansionist Geopolitics and actually setting about building a first rate nation state that is an example to the world. Not a thuggocracy. KFkairosfocus_{March 4, 2022
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Whaddya know, LCD? Something the two of us totally agree on. I have no idea why KF is basically ignoring the fact that the mainstream media's job is to lie to us for the agenda of our own western oligarchs. I mean, it's not like Ukraine is some sweet, polyanna country minding it's own business. It's been a major hub of corruption for decades. It has in fact been at war with its own citizens for a long time. Toss in the fact that NATO has been violating its own promises for decades now, what is Putin supposed to do? Nothing? Did we stand for the Soviet Union arming Cuba? Nope. We were willing to start WWIII to prevent that. Do we expect Putin to do anything less?William J Murray_{March 4, 2022
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How easy is it to see who the good guys are and who the bad guys are? Easy! that job is done by media so we don't need to think too much we just repeat what media tell us. Or not? I think when we talk about legacy media we should start with the presumption that everything is a lie. Discovered documents show that Western leaders promised not to expand NATO Is Vladimir Putin Right? Tyranny, One Tiny Step at a Time | Jordan Peterson on JRE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16uBwZxtzi0 PS: There are no good guysLieutenant Commander Data_{March 4, 2022
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U/D Mar 4, VDH analyses pivoting on the potential impact of the fire and forget Javelin Missile. KFkairosfocus_{March 4, 2022
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PS, Fernandez at PJ: https://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2022/02/26/putins-failure-n1562126
In retrospect, the Kremlin’s plan consisted of an airborne/airmobile/Spetsnaz descent on Kyiv, the mission of which was to establish an airhead in the capital and capture the Ukrainian government until relieved by mechanized forces racing in from the north. An airmobile assault was attempted at Gostomel to Kyiv’s immediate north. But things went badly wrong. The Russian battalion-sized airmobile force met stiff air defense and was immediately counterattacked by the Ukrainian mobile reserve. Unable to land follow-on forces, the paratroopers could not withstand heavy weapons and were scattered or wiped out. Equally serious for the Russians was the failure of their northern pincer to advance on schedule. Desperate to “bag” the Ukrainian government, the Russians attempted a large-scale airborne assault for Vasylkiv Airfield to the south of Kyiv to establish a blocking position to catch withdrawing units. But this failed, with two C-17 counterpart IL-76s loaded with paratroops destroyed, and with them, two infantry companies of the Kremlin’s finest. Crucially the Russian mechanized elements trickling into Kyiv proved too weak to break through the city defense. When it was clear Zelensky, and hence the Ukrainian government, could not be bagged and was quite capable of retreating in good order to fallback positions in the West, it was obvious that Putin could not conclude the campaign with the political time and the military forces at hand. At this, the diplomatic floodgates opened, with even China urging a diplomatic solution, and much of the world, scared to death of a third world war, timidly then more forcefully chiming in. Ukraine has not won, not in the military sense. It has lost territory, suffered significant losses to soldiers and civilians, and endured massive property damage. But crucially, it has not lost — and that may be enough. Attention is now turning to the possible danger that may attend Putin’s fall. While he appears to remain firmly in power, the ex-chekist (member of the original Soviet secret police) cannot but be weakened by the massive failure of his gamble. There is nothing else the Ukrainian winter war of 2022 resembles so much as a gigantic throw of the dice, so preposterous given the available forces that many, myself included, did not believe any rational man could undertake it. But perhaps Putin is not the ten-foot colossus the media makes him out to be as much as an aging “man of force” presiding over an economically and demographically dwindling, ex-Soviet haunted empire.
Sadly, at this point the onward history is being written in blood. KFkairosfocus_{March 3, 2022
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Jerry, my problem is, that with a known bad neighbour, what realistic alternative do the former Warsaw Pact states have to knocking at NATO's door? I shudder to think of the exemplar of what happened to Belgium -- mutually guaranteed by the great powers as a neutral, buffer state -- in 1914 and 1940. In 1914 the Kaiser refrained from attacking Holland and Denmark, but Hitler knew of no such restraints. In the case of Poland, 1989 - 91 was unfinished business from 1939. KFkairosfocus_{March 3, 2022
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