BBC announces:
Russian forces have launched a military assault on neighbouring Ukraine, crossing its borders and bombing military targets near big cities.
A residential building in Chuguev was destroyed after it was shelled.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that Moscow’s response will be “instant” if anyone tries to take on Russia.
Ukraine has urged the UN “to do everything possible” to stop what it says is a full-scale war.
We could title this, the geostrategic price of weakness, starting with the USA. Recall here, my 2016 framework:
Of course as this seems overnight the fog of war is very much in effect and we need to bear in mind that we are unlikely to have a full or reliable picture. DEVELOPING, UPDATES TO FOLLOW
U/D Feb 25, a map of the course of the invasion:
U/D Feb 27: Wiki Map Feb 26
U/D Feb 28, let’s insert the Feb 28 Wiki map to compare:
U/D Feb 27: HT Daily Mail, a map of detail fighting near Kiev:
U/D, Feb 27: Geostrategic considerations:
U/D Feb 28, Putin puts nuke forces to high alert, issues implied threats, even as he agrees to talks — vid:
U/D Mar 1: Overnight on the updated operational situation map at Wikipedia:
U/D, March 3: The already taken zones are being consolidated and extended and columns are surging out. Most notably, from Crimea to the West, and the thrust to Kiev is being broadened.
U/D Mar 4: VDH analyses, pivoting on the Javelin anti-tank missile:
U/D March 5, map is revised on Mar 3rd:
U/D2 Mar 5, a Daily Mail Map:
This Daily Mail map is more outline and differs in details but tells the same basic story.
U/D May 8, a screen shot from Russian TV with a marked up encirclement in the E:
Oh yes, apparently there is an enemies list:
- All EU member States,
- The USA
- Australia
- Albania
- Andorra
- Czech Republic
- Great Britain (including Jersey, Anguilla, British Virgin Islands and Gibraltar)
- Iceland
- Canada
- Liechtenstein
- Micronesia
- Monaco
- New Zealand
- Norway
- Republic of Korea
- San Marino
- North Macedonia
- Singapore
- Taiwan
- Ukraine
- Montenegro
- Switzerland
- Japan
They left off a raft of UK OT’s there, including Cayman, Montserrat, Turks and Caicos Islands, Bermuda, Isle of Man, Falklands, Pitcairn, St Helena, South Georgia etc. I guess they list where their offshore accounts are and got frozen?
U/D March 9, Putin in Southern Africa as a trainer for guerilla leaders, 1973:
U/D: Wiki map, March 6, showing armoured thrusts far beyond the zones identified in a Russian proposal for ceasefire terms. Notice, these are by and large conservative relative to what has been shown on Russian TV, scroll up:
U/D, Mar 15 – 20: Russian forces consolidate while keeping Kiev under pressure:
The consolidation ratchets up pressure on Ukraine, the attacks on the capital can lead to decision, negotiations seem stalled over Russia’s demand for neutrality, which has already been seen as invitation to invasion. Sanctions have been put in place but are seldom decisive.