BREAKING/DEVELOPING: Russia invades Ukraine

_{kairosfocus

February 24, 2022

Geo-strategic issues, News Highlights, rhetoric}

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Wikipedia initial map of the invasion, especially note a reported incursion from western Belarus and the main weight of reported bombings and incursions in the eastern trans-Dnieper region, the DonBass

Russian forces have launched a military assault on neighbouring Ukraine, crossing its borders and bombing military targets near big cities.
A residential building in Chuguev was destroyed after it was shelled.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that Moscow’s response will be “instant” if anyone tries to take on Russia.
Ukraine has urged the UN “to do everything possible” to stop what it says is a full-scale war.

We could title this, the geostrategic price of weakness, starting with the USA. Recall here, my 2016 framework:

Of course as this seems overnight the fog of war is very much in effect and we need to bear in mind that we are unlikely to have a full or reliable picture. DEVELOPING, UPDATES TO FOLLOW

U/D Feb 25, a map of the course of the invasion:

Wikipedia’s updated but provisional map c Feb 24, showing reported lines of thrust. Note, provisional

U/D Feb 27: Wiki Map Feb 26

Wiki map c Feb 26, showing lodgement areas, thrusts and move to decapitate by taking Kiev

U/D Feb 28, let’s insert the Feb 28 Wiki map to compare:

U/D Feb 27: HT Daily Mail, a map of detail fighting near Kiev:

HT, Daily Mail, on fighting near Kiev. Seizing an airport as an air head is a known standard modern tactic for the side with air superiority. Compare Bagram in Afghanistan and its abandonment just before the US fleeing from Afghanistan

U/D, Feb 27: Geostrategic considerations:

U/D Feb 28, Putin puts nuke forces to high alert, issues implied threats, even as he agrees to talks — vid:

U/D Mar 1: Overnight on the updated operational situation map at Wikipedia:

Update overnight Feb 28/Mar 1. We see a bridgehead across the Dnieper in the South coming from Crimea, with a column advancing NW. To the N, a cluster of breakouts on the E bank are beginning to fan out and another is joining with the enclave to the E. Other columns are pushing in from the N and E, and the siege of Kharkov and Kiev are also underway. Air strikes cluster on Kiev but are spread across the whole country.

U/D, March 3: The already taken zones are being consolidated and extended and columns are surging out. Most notably, from Crimea to the West, and the thrust to Kiev is being broadened.

U/D Mar 4: VDH analyses, pivoting on the Javelin anti-tank missile:

U/D March 5, map is revised on Mar 3rd:

Notice here fresh probes from White Russia, a thrust to the W along a major road net towards Poland, a swing back towards Kiev for a thrust that was apparently aiming to pinch off a chunk of Northern Ukraine continued columns from the NE and the continuation of the western breakout from Crimea. Kiev and Kharkov seem to be holding,

U/D2 Mar 5, a Daily Mail Map:

This Daily Mail map is more outline and differs in details but tells the same basic story.

U/D May 8, a screen shot from Russian TV with a marked up encirclement in the E:

Oh yes, apparently there is an enemies list:

All EU member States,
The USA
Australia
Albania
Andorra
Czech Republic
Great Britain (including Jersey, Anguilla, British Virgin Islands and Gibraltar)
Iceland
Canada
Liechtenstein
Micronesia
Monaco
New Zealand
Norway
Republic of Korea
San Marino
North Macedonia
Singapore
Taiwan
Ukraine
Montenegro
Switzerland
Japan

They left off a raft of UK OT’s there, including Cayman, Montserrat, Turks and Caicos Islands, Bermuda, Isle of Man, Falklands, Pitcairn, St Helena, South Georgia etc. I guess they list where their offshore accounts are and got frozen?

U/D March 9, Putin in Southern Africa as a trainer for guerilla leaders, 1973:

This is my comment on an iHarare piece brought to my attention by people inclined to cheer on anything that is suggested as aiding liberation from Western Imperialism. An objection was made in the combox, that Putin’s age would be 20-ish and his official life story puts him in law school at relevant times. I noted that he was KGB and we can expect contradictory narratives, where the window is that in which military service is likely. The association with two African Presidents of the left is noteworthy. I suggest, assume it is not in fact Putin, that would only lead to, Russians were engaged in geostrategic pushes in guise of liberation movements, some of which have proved disastrous for ordinary people in certain African countries. The geostrategic point remains.

U/D: Wiki map, March 6, showing armoured thrusts far beyond the zones identified in a Russian proposal for ceasefire terms. Notice, these are by and large conservative relative to what has been shown on Russian TV, scroll up:

U/D, Mar 15 – 20: Russian forces consolidate while keeping Kiev under pressure:

The consolidation ratchets up pressure on Ukraine, the attacks on the capital can lead to decision, negotiations seem stalled over Russia’s demand for neutrality, which has already been seen as invitation to invasion. Sanctions have been put in place but are seldom decisive.

Comments

KF “The single largest error in judgment contributing to the price surge? President Joe Biden’s decision to stifle U.S. oil fracking and kill the Keystone pipeline” But it was not an error on Biden’s part, he is intentionally jacking up the price of oil. His administration wants gasoline prices to go through the roof and bankrupt the poor and middle class . Psaki confirmed this today in her interview on ABC. https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2022/02/27/psaki-calls-to-enhance-u-s-oil-production-a-misdiagnosis-we-need-to-reduce-our-dependence/ Like the so called border crisis believe what they do not what they say. The Biden administration does not consider an open border a crisis, he and his cronies hate America and despise the middle class so they want to totally change the composition of the electorate. It’s as plain as day. Vividvividbleau_{February 27, 2022
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F/N: Col Austin Bay, 23rd https://www.strategypage.com/on_point/2022022391845.aspx >>Russian tanks and mechanized infantry have invaded Ukraine's Donbas and occupied the so-called secessionist enclaves of Luhansk and Donetsk. Russian President Vladimir Putin calls his armored forces "peacekeepers," sent to protect ethnic Russians threatened by Ukrainian genocide. No one sane believes it. Putin leverages the bloody script Slobodan Milosevic's Serbia used in the 1990s to justify invading Bosnia and Croatia, waging a war in Europe that left some 250,000 dead. In 2008 Putin used his version of the script. He sent special forces and infantry into Georgia, igniting the Russo-Georgian War. He claimed breakaway enclaves South Ossetia and Abkhaz faced ethnic cleansing. The Bush administration airlifted a Georgian infantry brigade from Iraq to Tbilisi. The American reaction curbed the Kremlin's aggression and led to a ceasefire. Putin, however, kept soldiers in the enclaves . . . And ever since [the earlier aggression in 2014], eastern Ukraine has suffered a slow war of creeping Russian aggression. This week the war escalated, drastically. On Feb. 21 Putin announced that the two Ukrainian enclaves are independent countries. My bet on his next move: they become Russian territory. At the strategic level Putin made the war a direct challenge to the NATO alliance. No, Ukraine isn't a NATO nation, but Poland is, and Poland is worried. So are the Baltic states. Putin sees divisions in NATO, and he is exploiting them. Huge spikes in energy prices -- petro-rubles swelling Putin's military budget -- fueled this week's aggression. High oil prices give the Kremlin money to spend on war. The single largest error in judgment contributing to the price surge? President Joe Biden's decision to stifle U.S. oil fracking and kill the Keystone pipeline. Biden's "green policies" also undermine U.S. energy independence, and Americans are paying an economic price. We've a bitter example of an incompetent and ignorant White House inflicting major damage to U.S. foreign policy and our own domestic economy. Now Biden and NATO dither on how to penalize Russia. Germany's Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia is on hold. Putin expected that. Attacking Russian finances will hurt, but Russian troops in Ukraine are now a hard fact on the ground. They have advantageous positions with relatively little bloodshed. Adolf Hitler did the same when his forces re-militarized the Rhineland on March 7, 1936. What's Putin's strategic goal? We've known for quite some time. Putin is assembling the RUBK -- "Rubik" as in the puzzle Rubik's Cube. I'll quote from a column I wrote in November 2004. At some point a Russian leader would emerge who would try "to return to super-power status..." and restore key elements of the Soviet Union's empire. This leader would attempt "to link the core empire strength: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan (RUBK)... "Russia, plus Ukraine, plus Belarus, plus Kazakhstan is a geo-strategic formula for a global power re-born.">> A serious military commentator. KFkairosfocus_{February 27, 2022
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Sc, really. And the tangents continue. KFkairosfocus_{February 27, 2022
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KF: Sc, there is enough video evidence…
Then the investigations will show this.
..but then you are the one who doubts that the push of heavy horse and resulting harm that is known to have put someone into hospital was real.
Strange, considering I was the one who posted the interview from her hospital bed.
In any case you are yet again trying the distractive toxic tangent game. KF
Responding to your comments with facts is playing the distractive toxic tangent game? Or is it because the facts provided run counter to your narrative that classifies it as a distractive toxic tangent game?Scamp_{February 27, 2022
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SA @76, It's not paranoia if they really are trying to kill you. :) I would think there's all kinds of people trying to kill Putin. All sorts of western corporations that would love divvying up Russia's resources.William J Murray_{February 27, 2022
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WJM @ 63 Interesting. We've never heard a word of that in the mainstream press. That just underscores Putin's fear of the kind of corruption that is present in the West (and that feeds paranoia).Silver Asiatic_{February 27, 2022
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KF, You do realize that it is under Putin that Russians can once again own firearms, including handguns? That's not your typical lawless oligarch or tyrannical despot behavior.William J Murray_{February 27, 2022
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After the attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, many Americans were in shock and disbelief. President Roosevelt called it the day of infamy. The world plunged even deeper in World War II. Nobody could escape the war. Millions of people perished in the war started by madman dictators. February 24, 2022 is the day of infamy too: Russia attacked Ukraine, bombed Ukrainian cities, killed innocent Ukrainians on the Ukrainian soil. It can’t be clearer: Russia is the aggressor; Ukraine is the victim. Ukraine has only one threat to Putin: Ukraine can be a free and successful country and thus give hope to Russians to become one day a free, successful country too. As I said before, this is the war with far reaching consequences for the global order, for the free world, and for the security for each of us no matter where we are.
https://voxukraine.org/en/the-day-of-infamy/jerry_{February 27, 2022
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F/N, there is stuff out there on how the pushes are stalling, the Ukrainians are fighting etc. I don't buy that unless the Russians are being very restrained, even with air superiority approaching supremacy. This is classic Blitzkrieg country. Kiev and Kharkov come to mind and Kursk is just North, remembering the 1940's. KFkairosfocus_{February 27, 2022
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Sc, there is enough video evidence but then you are the one who doubts that the push of heavy horse and resulting harm that is known to have put someone into hospital was real. In any case you are yet again trying the distractive toxic tangent game. KFkairosfocus_{February 27, 2022
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KF: Sc, Canadian police indulged in brutality,
In spite of the proliferation of cell phones, the anti-civil order crowd keeps replaying the same three or four incidents, all of which will undergo an automatic civilian review.
…lockup of financial assets…
Which did no more than prevent organizers from using bank transfers to move money to other protesters to prolong an illegal protest. Many of which were implemented through warrant prior to the emergencies act. It turns out that the vast majority of claims of bank accounts being frozen simply for donating to the crowd funding campaigns were unsubstantiated.
…and in vandalism as can be seen from recovered trucks,
Leaving the windows open shouldn’t have happened and should be investigated. However, the police had no obligation to allow the truck drivers to get their trucks back while their cases were still pending. I was actually surprised that the city or province didn’t hold onto them pending the outcome of charges, and then auction off those owned by people convicted of their charges. The funds could be used to offset the costs to the city of the truckers’ actions. Costs for which I and hundreds of thousands of other residents of Ottawa are on the hook for.
…in response to civil disobedience…
Civil disobedience ends and illegal activities occur when you camp out on city streets, harass citizens and blast your horns at all hours of the day.
…triggered by refusal to pay a dog’s mind of attention to lesser remonstrance.
I find it strange that you think it acceptable behaviour to take your grievances out on innocent people when you don’t get your way. Most of us grew out of these types of selfish reactions when we were kids.
Trudeau called a needless state of emergency to deal with civil disobedience as protest, a gross and telling over reaction.
Again, you keep referring to the occupation of city streets where people live, harassing citizens and blasting horns at all hours of the day is acceptable “civil disobedience”. I’m sure you wouldn’t think so if pro-choice or gay rights protesters did this on the street where you live because your country doesn’t allow abortion or same-sex marriage. And refuses to leave your street until the country changes these respective laws. But I agree that invoking the emergencies act was not needed. The states of emergency declared by the province and the city were sufficient to have the protesters removed.Scamp_{February 27, 2022
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Sc, Canadian police indulged in brutality, lockup of financial assets and in vandalism as can be seen from recovered trucks, in response to civil disobedience triggered by refusal to pay a dog's mind of attention to lesser remonstrance. Trudeau called a needless state of emergency to deal with civil disobedience as protest, a gross and telling over reaction. KFkairosfocus_{February 27, 2022
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KF: It was sobering to see vid of protesters standing their ground even as snatch teams took them one by one into police vans as one recalls the history of Soviet secret police. Unfortunately, it also reminds one of recent pictures of events in Canada.
Canadian police arrested and charged people involved in an illegal activity after being given plenty of opportunity to leave with no consequences. Those charged had a bail hearing and almost all of them are out on bail. They will have an opportunity to defend their actions in front of a jury of their peers. So, no, your hyperbolic attempt to equate Canada and Russia fails.
LCD: No difference between Trudeau and Putin.
Anyone who knows anything about Trudeau would be rolling on the floor laughing about this. Let’s just say that the apple fell very far from the tree.Scamp_{February 27, 2022
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WJM, do you think the Russian people can repudiate and remove him successfully? KFkairosfocus_{February 27, 2022
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KF @85 said:
He is the face for a system of abusive officialdom and a population under subjugation.
Or not.William J Murray_{February 27, 2022
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No difference between Trudeau and Putin. To not be allowed to feed yourself (by blocking your access to work/to shop or freezing your bank account ) is the same as to be killed . There is that insane illusion that if you unplug a life-support machine is not as criminal as to chop the person with a knife . Both have the same result even one seems less bloody .Lieutenant Commander Data_{February 27, 2022
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WJM, Putin's mother was a serious Orthodox Christian, and even after being a KGB light Colonel, Putin has taken up Orthodox faith seriously. However, in balance, we are reminded of the Apostle James' comment: Jas 2: "19 You believe that God is one; you do well. Even the demons believe—and shudder!" Repentance and transformation are requisites of living faith. The issue, again, is lawless, unaccountable oligarchy, and here Mr Putin does not stand alone, cannot. He is the face for a system of abusive officialdom and a population under subjugation. That is so regardless of the legitimate point that the rotten fruit of the great Western apostasy are on horrific public display, starting with 800+ million of our living posterity in the womb slaughtered and mounting globally at a million more per week, yes both are wrong. Church leaders need to stand up and speak to this issue, publicly, correcting both evils. It was sobering to see vid of protesters standing their ground even as snatch teams took them one by one into police vans as one recalls the history of Soviet secret police. Unfortunately, it also reminds one of recent pictures of events in Canada. KFkairosfocus_{February 27, 2022
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AC, it is a violation of International Law to exploit POWs. It seems that up to 200 have been captured, and pictures and/or vids have been featured. I can think of any number of similar photos and movies from the past 150 years [Ballantine's campaign and battle books had a lot of them], I am not sure where the borderline comes, then. That does not of course compare with the invasion now in progress that seems to lack any basis in a reasonable claim to self defence. As the vid just put up shows, there are readily understandable geostrategic goals but that sort of beggar my neighbour approach should have gone out the window in 1945. The North European plain should be little more than a point in history classes on the bad old days not a current consideration of fighting land wars with long front lines. It seems clear the people of the Ukraine prefer their own government to Russian rule, never mind that the Russian state ultimately began in that area about 1,000 years ago. KFkairosfocus_{February 27, 2022
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Here's an entirely different perspective on Putin than the one the mainstream media has been giving people: https://pravoslavie.ru/88285.htmlWilliam J Murray_{February 27, 2022
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Ukraine's nationalists are parading russian POWs on Youtube. Will we see human rights watch condemn Ukraine's crimes?AndyClue_{February 27, 2022
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U/D: Vid on geostrategic considerations.kairosfocus_{February 27, 2022
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U/D: HT Daily Mail, fighting near Kiev. An armoured thrust is coming from the North, an airhead has been established, special forces seem to already be fighting in the vicinity. The likely aim is decapitation, getting bogged down in urban fighting is a costly, slow, bloody business and Russians vividly remember Leningrad and Stalingrad. KFkairosfocus_{February 27, 2022
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Vivid, the fighting is already underway, unfortunately, things are far beyond 1939 so the Ukraine is not going to be able to resist as effectively as Finland back then. The region is notorious in history as armoured war country, Kursk is just north. Once lodgements are there and air power backs the panzers only obstacles like big rivers -- and crossing the Dneiper was notorious in WW2 -- will stop the advance. Ukraine lacks strategic depth and resources to pull off counterstrokes like von Manstein or Hienrici so often did, it is comparable in area to France or California and the situation is like that of Poland in 1939, converging thrusts. Except, Kiev is near a frontier and Putin is going for a decapitation stroke. I suspect he may try to capture the East and install a regime he can then dominate. KF PS, language again, kindly think broken window theory.kairosfocus_{February 27, 2022
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BTW I think Putin is making a huge mistake. The Ukrainians are going to fight, the people of Russia don’t want this war. I honestly don’t see him surviving through this and expect him to be escorted out the door. What he is doing is insane. Vividvividbleau_{February 27, 2022
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Anthropic “Sev 51 Good stuff, for the most part, but you were misled by hatred of Trump” Under whose watch has Russia invaded the Ukraine yet Sev continues to spew vitriol at Trump, truly delusional. The amount of corruption by the Biden’s and “the big guy” have made our President a national security risk. The crap China, Russia, N Korea, etc have on them has to be mind boggling. The only thing Biden has built back better has been Afghanistan and Russia. “He fired up US energy production, which drove down oil & gas prices and kept Putin on a short leash” As for lying the other day Biden said he would do everything in his power to reduce energy prices, of course that is a lie. His insane energy policy drove up the price of oil,like Afghanistan built back better Russia, and gave Russia the financial means to start this war. Biden has it in his power to reverse his insane energy policy and bring down gas prices. A year ago we were exporting energy now Biden is begging OPEC and still importing oil from Russia. Of course lying Biden will not reverse his energy policy because he wants gas prices to go up, he is thrilled as is his lefty climate change whacko’s. The higher the better, it’s intentional. Vividvividbleau_{February 27, 2022
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Sev 51 Good stuff, for the most part, but you were misled by hatred of Trump. He fired up US energy production, which drove down oil & gas prices and kept Putin on a short leash. Also, while Trump had honeyed public words for Putin, behind the scenes reports are that he warned the Russian strongman that any attacks on the Ukraine would be met by a strike on Moscow. That's why Russia didn't dare take an inch of Ukraine under Trump's watch. "Speak softly, and carry a big stick." Or, as they say in chess, the threat is stronger than the execution.anthropic_{February 26, 2022
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STRATEGYPAGE: https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/israel/articles/20220222.aspx
It was recently revealed that Israel refused to sell Ukraine Iron Dome rocket defense systems so as not to anger Russia. At the same time Israel was dismayed at the timid reaction of NATO and the United States to the Russian decision to recognize the half of Donbas their proxy forces already occupy and now send in Russian troops as peacemakers. Israelis compare this to the British reaction to German efforts to annex portions of Czechoslovakia in 1938. The British, without consulting the Czechs, agreed to the German annexation plans, which were then carried out. The Czechs did not resist because they had been sold out by their allies in return for a promise by Hitler that he had no further territorial ambitions. In 1939 Germany invaded Poland and that started World War II. Israelis fear the West is doing the same to them, because of their proposed deal with Iran to lift economic sanctions while ignoring continued Iranian work on ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons. Israel believes the Russians respect power and exploit weakness. Israel points to how they and Russia have become more open about their cooperation in Syria, and elsewhere in the region. Russian and Israeli senior officials frequently meet in Russia or Israel to discuss details of this partnership and often release details of their Syrian arrangement and any new developments. Israel and Russia have been cooperating in Syria for decades but in 2015 that relationship had to be modified. For the first time Russia had substantial combat forces in Syria and at a time when Israel was carrying out airstrikes against Syrian and Iranian forces threatening Israel. Russia is supposed to be protecting Syria from rebels and foreign interference. Because of Israeli military superiority and willingness to humiliate Russia if they try to stop Israeli airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria, the Russians talk but do not act. Russia has another vulnerability when it comes to Israel and that is continued access to Israeli technology. Israel has halted some of that cooperation in the past when Russia caused problems for Israel. The Israelis believe Russia is a bully that makes threats they cannot follow through on. Russia has learned that Israel does not back down from threats, while NATO and the United States do. This is a problem for Israel because the United States supplies much of the money for Iron Dome development and has a say in who it can be exported to. The Americans recognized the Israeli need to maintain the cooperation they have achieved with the Russians in Syria. Despite that, Israel fears the Americans would openly block an Israeli efforts to provide Iron Dome or other air defense systems to Ukraine. The U.S. did approve of the Iron Dome sale to the UAE (United Arab Emirates). Israeli firms now have sales offices in the UAE, to handle the sale and service of military and non-military items sold to Persian Gulf customers. Now the Gulf Arabs are wondering how strong American resolve against Iran really is.
Food for thought, KFkairosfocus_{February 26, 2022
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U/D, new situation map showing lodgements and thrusts by Russia.kairosfocus_{February 26, 2022
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Vivid, going to underground headquarters is a normal procedure. KFkairosfocus_{February 26, 2022
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Sev, a few implausibilities there, some bogeyman talk points and overlooking of the no 1 problem: wars are often caused by blunders and accidents. In the Cuban crisis it turned out tac nukes were there with some Russians and the world came a lot closer to nuke war than was realised. I am not prepared to bet on anything though I have said in a chat with RE troops here, the US and Russia will never go to nuke exchange. But I have concerns on Iran/Israel and China/Taiwan, with the S Koreans, Japanese, Australians and Singaporeans seeing obvious geostrategic incompetence and unreliability in this regime in the WH. It is not an accident that like the transition in 1960, two or so years after 2020 we see crises spinning out of control over the next couple of years. Kennedy had showed weakness in Austria and had already seen the Berlin Wall going up. KF PS, Hitler was indisputably a genius, but a wicked man.kairosfocus_{February 26, 2022
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