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How Keith’s “Bomb” Turned Into A Suicide Mission

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Keith brought in an argument he claimed to be a “bomb” for ID. It turned out to be a failed suicide mission where the only person that got blown up was Keith.

(Please note: I am assuming that life patterns exists in an ONH, as Keith claims, for the sake of this argument only.  Also, there are many other, different take-downs of Keith’s “bomb” argument already on the table.  Indulge me while I present another here.)

In my prior OP, I pointed out that Keith had made no case that nature was limited to producing only ONH’s when it comes to biological diversity, while his whole argument depended on it.  He has yet to make that case, and has not responded to me when I have reiterated that question.  We turn our attention now to his treatment of “the designer” in his argument.

First, a point that my have been lost in another thread:

From here, keith claimed:

3. We know that unguided evolution exists.

No, “we” do not. ID proponents concede that unguided natural forces exist that are utilized by a designed system (even if perhaps entirely front-loaded) to accomplish evolutionary goals; they do not concede that unguided process (including being unguided and unregulated by front-loaded designed algorithms and infrastructure) can generate successful evolution, even microevolution, entirely without any guided support/infrastructure.

Keith claims that we have observed “unguided microevolution” producing ONH’s, but that is an assumptive misstatement. Douglas Theobald, his source for “evidence” that unguided evolution has been observed generating ONH’s, makes no such claim or inference.  Theobald only claims that microevolution produces ONH’s.  Observing a process producing an effect doesn’t necessarily reveal if the process is guided or unguided.

Keith agrees Theobald makes no such claim or inference. The “unguided” modifying characteristic, then, is entirely on Keith; he can point to no research or science that rigorously vets microevolutionary processes as “unguided”.

When challenged on this assumption, Keith makes statements such as “even YEC’s agree that microevolution is unguided”, or that some particular ID proponent has made that concession; please note that because others elect not to challenge an assumption doesn’t mean that everyone else is required to concede the point. If challenged, the onus falls upon Keith to support his assertion that unguided microevolutionary forces are up to the task of generating ONH’s, otherwise his entire argument fails because of this unsupported premise.

Keith’s response to the challenge about the “unguided” nature of microevolution:

As you know, we actually observe microevolution producing ONHs, and microevolution does not require designer intervention, as even most YECs acknowledge.

This is simple reiteration of the very assertion that has been challenged. Keith circularly refers back to the very source that provides no support for his “unguided” inference. This has been pointed out to him several times, yet he repeats the same mantra over and over “we know unguided microevolution can produce ONH’s.”  Reiterating an assertion is not providing support for the assertion.  As I’ve asked Keith serveral times, where is the research that makes the case that microevolutionary processes/successes are qualitatively “unguided”?  Keith has yet to point us to such a paper.

That said, here is the suicidal portion of Keith’s argument.

I’ve repeatedly challenged keith to answer this question:

Are you saying that it is impossible for natural forces to generate a mismatched (non-ONH) set of trees [diversity of life pattern]?

This question follows a point I made in the Black Knight thread:

If, as Keith’s argument apparently assumes, natural forces are **restricted** to generating biological systems as evolutionary in nature and conforming to Markovian ONH progressions, why (and perhaps more importantly, how) would a designer work around these apparently inherent natural limitations and tendencies in order to generate **something else**?

It’s like Keith expects a designer to defy gravity, inertia and other natural forces and tendencies in order to get a rocket to the moon and back, just because keith imagines that a designer would have trillions of options available that didn’t need to obey such natural laws and tendencies.

Keith’s argument relies upon his claim that the designer could have generated “the diversity of life” into “trillions” of patterns that were not ONH’s, and that no such options were open to natural forces.  If a designer and natural forces both had the same number of options open to them, there would be no advantage in Keith’s argument to either.  However, Keith’s “trillions of options” argument requires that the designer can instantiate living organisms into the physical world in a manner that natural forces cannot, thus generating “diversity of life” patterns nature is incapable of producing.

Keith’s response was:

You think that the Designer was limited by natural forces? You might want to discuss that assumption with your fellow IDers, who may not be quite so enthusiastic about it as you are. Besides the conflict with your fellow IDers, you have another problem: what is the basis for your assumption about the limitations of the Designer? How do you know what the Designer can and cannot do? Be specific.

Note the attempt to shift the burden, as if I was the one making  a claim about what the designer “can and cannot do”. I made no such claim.  The claim was in Keith’s assertion that the designer could have generated trillions of “diversity of life” patterns that nature could not by instantiating life forms into physical existence in a manner that nature could not.  Later, Keith modified his claim:

There are trillions of logical possibilities, and we have no reason to rule any of them out. After all, we know absolutely nothing about the purported designer.

What an explosive, self-contradictory blunder.  If we cannot rule any of them out because we know nothing about the designer, by the same token we cannot rule them in.  Whether or not unguided natural forces can generate any of the same “trillions of possibilities” of diversity of life pattern (alternatives to ONH) depends on what we know about those natural forces and how they operate.  Obviously, Keith doesn’t assume that unguided natural forces can instantiate life in  “trillions” of ways that would not conform to an ONH.  Not knowing anything about “the designer” doesn’t give Keith license to simply assume the designer has “trillions of possibilities” open to actually instantiating a “diversity of life” into the physical world. If we disregard actual capacity to produce biological diversity, the same number of purely “logical” alternatives are open to both natural forces and any designer.  You have to know something about the causal agencies to know what it is “possible” for them to do or not do. Keith admits he knows nothing about the designer.

Read what Keith said again:

You think that the Designer was limited by natural forces?

Something becomes clear here: Keith’s argument must assume that the designer is supernatural, and can magically instantiate biological life into the world in any way imaginable, without regard for natural laws, forces, or molecular tendencies and behavioral rules, and without regard to what would limit any other causal agency – it’s actual capacity to engineer particular outcomes in the physical world.

Yet, Keith says that we know nothing about the designer:

 After all, we know absolutely nothing about the purported designer.

If we assume that natural forces are capable of creating non-ONH patterns, Keith’s argument fails. If we assume that natural forces can only produce an ONH, then Keith must assume extra characteristics about the designer – that it is capable of instantiating  “diversity of life” patterns that natural forces cannot.  Keith’s assumptions are not equal.  For the assumptions to be equal, we either assume both unguided forces and the designer can only produce ONH patterns in a diversity of life landscape, or we can assume both are capable of non-ONH patterns.  We cannot assume that unguided forces can actually only produce ONH, and assume that the designer can actually produce trillions of other patterns, and keep a straight face while insisting our assumptions are equal and that “we know absolutely nothing about the designer”.

Comments
keiths' "fair" criterion:
Given a choice between two hypotheses, we should prefer the one that is more plausible.
When given:
Hypotheses 1: Blah Hypotheses 2: If hypotheses 1 is plausible, then it is the better explanation
Your "fair" criterion starts to become nonsensical.Phinehas
November 13, 2014
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William #365, I've seen some odd arguments from you in the past, but this one takes the cake. You are arguing that I am obligated to treat ID unfairly. Why? Because if I don't treat ID unfairly, then you can't reject my argument for being unfair! You are insisting that I use your unfair criterion:
It is indeed the ID position that if natural forces are a scientifically plausible explanation of an effect or phenomena with an unknown origin, it is the better explanation, period.
Instead of my fair one:
Given a choice between two hypotheses, we should prefer the one that is more plausible.
You are the one who is being unfair to ID, not me. When you accuse me of being unfair to ID, you are really accusing yourself. When we treat ID and unguided evolution fairly and equally, ID loses by a factor of trillions.keith s
November 13, 2014
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Zachriel:
We don’t have to explain everything to explain some things.
Excellent point! We'd do well to keep this one handy for all those, "Who designed the designer?" and " How did the designer do it?" questions.Phinehas
November 13, 2014
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keiths:
You only use the principle of indifference when you have no prior information. Otherwise, you exploit the prior information.
So based on your own words, EITHER: 1) We have prior information that the designer has trillions of alternatives and therefore cannot use the principle of indifference. OR: 2) We do not have prior information that the designer has trillions of alternatives. You can't have it both ways. The fact that you need to have it both ways (having it both ways is critical to your argument) doesn't change this.Phinehas
November 13, 2014
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Zachriel: If the designer has no choice, then it’s not a designer. Box: Incorrect. Of course it's correct. Design entails choices. Box: For you “one option” equals “no choice”. However, one (design) option is not equal to “no choice”. That's a better argument. So we agree it entails some choice. Box: How do you explain the existence of this “simple inverse square law”? Excellent question! Newton avoided speculating on the underlying cause of gravity. It wasn't necessary to his theory. The inverse square relationship was a sufficient explanation for a wide variety of phenomena, from elliptical orbits to the fall of the apple. Box: Childish strawman a la Keith. Not at all. It's an analogy. We have the choice of positing that the designer moves each planet making choices along the way, or that there is a simple relationship that explains the orbits, with various ways of testing the latter. Box: So, branching descent entails ONH but does not explain it? Branching descent is the scientific explanation of the objective nested hierarchy. Box: Well since ONH implies new proteins, new body plans and so forth, we must assume that branching descent also explains those things. No. Branching descent does not explains new proteins. However, the branching occurred regardless of whether we understand the process in detail or not. Box: Indeed. Sex doesn’t explain embryonic development. That's right. We can determine the relationship of sex to reproduction without knowing exactly how the process works.Zachriel
November 13, 2014
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Zachriel, Part I:
Box: Maybe the capability of the designer restricts her to one option. Maybe the designer has compelling reasons to choose for a certain option. We can only speculate. We have no way of knowing.
Zachriel: If the designer has no choice, then it’s not a designer.
Incorrect. For you "one option" equals "no choice". However, one (design) option is not equal to “no choice”. At a minimum there is the choice to produce the design option or not. And even if the designer has no other choice than designing X I fail to see why that does make her any less a designer of X.
In any case, the designer may have her angels move planets in elliptical orbits for inscrutable reasons. Or it could be a simple inverse square law.
How do you explain the existence of this “simple inverse square law”? There are good reasons to believe that the laws of the universe are designed.
Being a planetary angel used to be a prestigious position. Trying to get the retrogrades right, to synchronize conjunctions with the rise and fall of nations, was no simple matter, and required the greatest care, intelligence, and coordination.
Childish strawman a la Keith. - - Part II
Box: Does it [branching descent] explain the existence of new proteins, new body plans?
Zachriel: No.
Box: Because if it does not explain these things – which are fundamental to ONH -, how can it explain ONH itself?
Zachriel: Because branching descent entails the nested hierarchy, and the nested hierarchy is a highly specific pattern.
So, branching descent entails ONH but does not explain it?
Zachriel: Branching descent explains why there is a nested hierarchy.
Aha so, it explains ONH. Well since ONH implies new proteins, new body plans and so forth, we must assume that branching descent also explains those things. However, you have already denied this to be the case. Therefore I hold that your claim ‘branching descent explains ONH’ is incoherent.
Zachriel: We don’t have to explain everything to explain some things. We don’t have to know everything about how the branching process occurs any more than we have to know everything about embryonic development to show that sex is involved in making babies.
Indeed. Sex doesn’t explain embryonic development. You must be pretty fond of branching descent to compare it to sex. The comparison doesn’t make any sense to me.Box
November 13, 2014
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Box: the assumption that trillion alternatives are available for a designer is unsubstantiated – not supported by any knowledge. The simple truth is that WE DO NOT KNOW how many options are available to the designer. Maybe the capability of the designer restricts her to one option. Maybe the designer has compelling reasons to choose for a certain option. We can only speculate. We have no way of knowing. If the designer has no choice, then it's not a designer. In any case, the designer may have her angels move planets in elliptical orbits for inscrutable reasons. Or it could be a simple inverse square law. Being a planetary angel used to be a prestigious position. Trying to get the retrogrades right, to synchronize conjunctions with the rise and fall of nations, was no simple matter, and required the greatest care, intelligence, and coordination. Then that Newton fellow came along and systematized the whole thing. Now there's nothing for angels to do but watch, and maybe oil the gears every once in a while. And no, that comet slamming into the sixth sphere was not our fault! http://zachriel.com/blog/Angelic_movers.jpgZachriel
November 13, 2014
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William, Thank you for the elucidation on Keith's inappropriate invocation of the principle of indifference. This part is truly educational:
WJM: You must have possibilities in the first place before you can rule any out or in. Where does keith find possibilities in the first place to “not rule out” in the second place?
IMHO what it all boils down to is: Absent knowledge of the designer, there is no method of reasoning that validly assigns a trillion alternatives to the designer. IOW there is no valid method of reasoning that turns an assumption into a fact - absent supportive knowledge.Box
November 13, 2014
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Box: Does it explain the existence of new proteins, new body plans? No. Box: Because if it does not explain these things – which are fundamental to ONH -, how can it explain ONH itself? Because branching descent entails the nested hierarchy, and the nested hierarchy is a highly specific pattern. Box: If that is the case, it is not clear to me what it can explain at all. Branching descent explains why there is a nested hierarchy. Box: Well, one thing is for certain, it sure does not explain it. We don't have to explain everything to explain some things. Branching descent explains why there is a nested hierarchy. We don't have to know what causes gravity to describe how gravity works. We don't have to know everything about how the branching process occurs any more than we have to know everything about embryonic development to show that sex is involved in making babies. Querius: But with software, one does assume it does something, and that’s my point about ID. Actually, there's often junk in software, modules that are never utilized, portions of code that were written then forgotten. Zachriel: More likely, {genome duplication} allows for rapid adaptation by duplicating essential genes, which allows them to evolve with fewer restrictions. It also doubles the expression of genes, so in rich environments, that might be advantageous. Querius: Yes, exactly what I was trying to get across, except I think your examples are less speculative. Then that's consistent with modern evolutionary theory. Some of the genome codes for genes. Some is regulatory. Some is duplications. Some is spacers. Some is invaders. Some is unknown. Some is never utilized, and these sections of the genome tend to evolve neutrally. Querius: I can’t give you a reference but it seems to me that removal of reproductive participation is considered to have greater significance than the 3-5% advantage usually ascribed to an evolutionary advantage. Extinction is certainly an important mechanism in evolutionary theory. However, evolutionary theory doesn't order extinction in the same way it orders the births of species. Evolution posits an ancestor-descendant relationship. Ancestors can coexist with descendants, but descendants can't preexist their own ancestors. Querius: Coelacanths certainly exhibit a lot of variation. Maybe, they’re like dogs–you know great danes and chihuahuas are still the same species but don’t appear so. That's irrelevant to whether "coelacanths 400 million years ago had the identical genome as those of today". Danes and chihuahuas have different genomes, so did coelacanths of yesteryear. Querius: What I was asking was whether several different, relatively modern, aquatic animals found in close proximity with the cambrian would suffice in your mind to falsify the Theory of Evolution. Right. And we said if you showed a pattern whereby posited descendants preceded their ancestors, it would falsify the current understanding of evolution or evolutionary history. Which would depend on the specific evidence. Querius: Presumably you accept that falsification of a theory doesn’t mean that everything in the theory has to be consistently falsified. The fundamental claim is that there is an ancestor-descendant relationship. If you were to show that such a relationship doesn't exist, then you would falsify the entire theory. However, all observations are theory-laden. A single finding probably would not be sufficient to overturn a strongly supported theory, such as evolution. A rabbit in the Precambrian would be subject to scrutiny because it would contradict so much other evidence. Let us know when you find such evidence. Querius: You mention that “The sexual genetics appear derived from other chromosomes,” but it’s hard to imagine just how this could occur over time. As we pointed out, chromosome rearrangement is a fairly common phenomenon, and it can happen fairly rapidly in mammals. Querius: Yes, and when large changes occur it’s catastrophic. Usually. Which is why we see from fossils of cetaceans that the hind limbs disappeared slowly over time. Querius: Common ancestry is touted in some cases (“fishapod”) and similar evidence is dismissed in others (bats and toothed whales) on what seems nothing stronger than what we think musta happened to fit in the current narrative. No, it is not dismissed. It's fundamental to evolutionary theory (Darwin 1859) that natural selection confounds the nested hierarchy. Hence, prestin in bats and whales evolved along similar paths, just like cetaceans evolved hydrodynamic shapes similar to fish. If a software designer borrowed prestin from another design, what would we expect of synonymous substitutions? What does evolutionary theory predict?Zachriel
November 13, 2014
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Now, if keith were to make equal assumptions on both sides of the issue, treating non-living natural forces (the predecessor to the instantiation of life on Earth) and a designer (the predecessor to the instantiation of life on Earth) equally, then if keith is going to assume one predecessor capable of generating trillions of options, he must assume the other is also so capable, unless keith can make an argument or show evidence why trillions of options were not available on one side and were available to the other.William J Murray
November 13, 2014
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Keith said:
You only use the principle of indifference when you have no prior information.
If you and William want to argue that statisticians are idiots for using the PoI, you’re going to have to do a lot better than you have so far.
Our argument is with keith, not other statisticians. The principle of indifference (in statistics) assumes a flat distribution of probability between a known or hypothesized group of possibilities, such as with coins, dice and cards, or any hypothesized set of possibilities where no distributive information is available from which to draw weighted probability conclusions about the various possibilities. Natural forces and intelligent design are two different possibility-generating domains. If keith simply assumes that the designer has trillions of possibilities, POI could be used to assign a statistical value to each of those trillions as to which the designer is likely to implement (knowing nothing about the designer, but assuming trillions of possibilites). Of course, the problem is that once again keith has assumed his conclusion - that the designer has trillions of options. Philosophically, the POI is stated this way:
the principle that, in the absence of any reason to expect one event rather than another, all the possible events should be assigned the same probability.
But, again, where does keith get his "trillions of possibilities" in the first place, upon which to reach the POI conclusion of a flat probability distribution? That is the problem. Keith has given us no reason or argument as two why we should accept his "trillions of possibilities" assumption in the first place. He claims that it is just his "not ruling anything out", but what exactly has he "not ruled out" when he has no idea what possibilities exist in the first place? You must have possibilities in the first place before you can rule any out or in. Where does keith find possibilities in the first place to "not rule out" in the second place? Also, as I have already pointed out, if you treat both premises equally, if you begin at the evolutionary system we currently have, and ignore possibilities supposedly avaialable prior to the current system, there is no distinction between the two premises. However, for the unguided side, keith excludes prior possibilities, and for the guided side keith includes them, saying the designer "could have" generated a different system. Keith ignores challenges that non-living natural forces also "could have" instantiated a different system.William J Murray
November 13, 2014
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* ASSUMPTION IS FACT * Keith's argument depends on several (see OP) logical fallacies in order to be valid. The absurd title of this post presents one of them. The logical truth that an assumption is NOT a fact is violated by Keith in premise 3 of his argument.
[ Keith’s argument ] 1. We observe objective nested hierarchies (ONH) 2. Unguided evolution explains ONH 3. A designer explains ONH, but also a trillion alternatives. 4. Both unguided evolution and a designer are capable of causing ONH. Conclusion: Unguided evolution is a trillion times better at explaining ONH.
For three(!) weeks in a row it has been explained to Keith again and again that the assumption that trillion alternatives are available for a designer is unsubstantiated – not supported by any knowledge. The simple truth is that WE DO NOT KNOW how many options are available to the designer. Maybe the capability of the designer restricts her to one option. Maybe the designer has compelling reasons to choose for a certain option. We can only speculate. We have no way of knowing. Simply because:
Keith: we know absolutely NOTHING about the purported designer.
That’s right Keith. And there is no method of reasoning that validly assigns a trillion alternatives to the designer. IOW there is no valid method of reasoning that turns an assumption into a fact. Keith’s latest attempt to show that there is such a method is duly pathetic.
Keith: #311, Here’s what Box and William are missing: 1. To rule something out is to assign a probability of 0 to it. 2. To rule something in is to assign a probability of 1 to it. 3. Neither of those actions is appropriate, because we know nothing at all about the designer. 4. The only remaining option is to assign an equal probability to all of the possibilities.
I have invited Keith to expand on his reasoning several times. Of course there is just one answer to my questions in post #314, #349 and #355: NEGLIGIBLE. The sad thing is that Keith will never admit it. Simply because he doesn't want to have "negligible" as a conclusion. He wants to turn an assumption into a fact - NOT into a infinite small probability. Keith will never admit that he is wrong even if he has to deny logical truth.Box
November 13, 2014
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Zachriel:
Branching doesn’t explain life. It explains why organism form an objective nested hierarchy.
No, it doesn't. An objective nested hierarchy requires more than just mere branching.Joe
November 13, 2014
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keith said:
It should be obvious that I am not assuming my conclusion, because I make exactly the same assumption on behalf of ID.
Even if you make equal assumptions (not that you did), that doesn't entail that your conclusion is not contained in your assumptions, especially when it is conceded that if both hypothesized causes can plausibly generate the effect, one of them is the de facto better explanation.
Perhaps that is your position, but it is definitely not the ID position. Most IDers would agree with this obviously correct statement: Given a choice between two hypotheses, we should prefer the one that is more plausible.
From the FAQ on this site, #39:
(a) Intelligent designers exist and act in the world. (b) When they do so, as a rule, they leave reliable signs of such intelligent action behind. (c) Indeed, for many of the signs in question such as CSI and IC, intelligent agents are the only observed cause of such effects, and chance + necessity (the alternative) is not a plausible source, because the islands of function are far too sparse in the space of possible relevant configurations. (d) On the general principle of science, that “like causes like,” we are therefore entitled to infer from sign to the signified: intelligent action. (e) This conclusion is, of course, subject to falsification if it can be shown that undirected chance + mechanical forces do give rise to CSI or IC. Thus, ID is falsifiable in principle but well supported in fact.
Please note that all it takes to disprove ID altogether as the better explanation for CSI is the simple demonstration that unguided forces can produce CSI. As soon as unguided forces are shown to be a plausible source of CSI, ID is disproven. How plausible it is compared to ID is not even mentioned other than that it be simply "plausible". From the same FAQ, #9:
A theory which would indeed be alternative to ID, and therefore could prove it wrong, is any empirically well-supported “causal theory” which excludes design; in other words any theory that fits well with the evidence and could explain the presence or emergence of complex biological information through chance, necessity, any mix of the two, or any other scenario which does not include design.
Note: No mention that the alternative theory must be "more plausible", only that it demonstrate that natural forces can produce CSI. From Intelligent Reasoning:
To test the design inference all one has to do is to demonstrate that the object/ event in question can arise via nature, operating freely- ie it is reducible to matter, energy, chance and necessity. If nature, operating freely can account for it then the design inference is unwarranted.
Note: all nature has to do is account for it; it doesn't have to account for it in a manner having equal to or better plausibility than design. The fact is, keiths, you are simply wrong about what is required to disprove ID, because ID theory depends on natural forces being a non-plausible candidate for the creation of CSI.William J Murray
November 13, 2014
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Adapa- There isn't any ToE and we know that because you cannot link to it. No one can...Joe
November 13, 2014
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Adapa Maybe you can help me, I'm desperate..... How did unguided processes create a guided process that prevents unguided processes from happening? Help me!Andre
November 12, 2014
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Querius This is not science. It’s the opposite of science: a big squishy paradigm that can accommodate everything in retrospect. Completely wrong. Of course current evolutionary theory can't accommodate everything. You were given numerous examples of phenomena that if found would have blown ToE out of the water, but those things were never discovered. Not falsified doesn't equal not falsifiable. That ToE accommodates all our current observations is a testament to its strength and validity, not a sign of your imagined weaknesses.Adapa
November 12, 2014
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Zachriel, On Salamaders My point about the large amount of DNA is that we don't know what it does, or the efficiency or scope of what it does. You mention an extra gigabyte. With software, a program that takes 30 times as much space is not necessarily 30 times more functional. But with software, one does assume it does something, and that's my point about ID.
More likely, it allows for rapid adaptation by duplicating essential genes, which allows them to evolve with fewer restrictions. It also doubles the expression of genes, so in rich environments, that might be advantageous.
Yes, exactly what I was trying to get across, except I think your examples are less speculative. :-) More about the salamander genome research is found here, if you're interested: http://rydberg.biology.colostate.edu/muellerlab/Research.html The deaths and births of species
Clearly cladogenesis is the organizing principle of cladistics. Why do you think otherwise?
Well, the process is supposed to be undirected, so I choke a bit on calling it an "organizing principle." Then there's also anagenesis, which is also part of the theory. I can't give you a reference but it seems to me that removal of reproductive participation is considered to have greater significance than the 3-5% advantage usually ascribed to an evolutionary advantage. On Coelacanths Coelacanths certainly exhibit a lot of variation. Maybe, they're like dogs--you know great danes and chihuahuas are still the same species but don't appear so. Maybe coelacanth persistence is an indication of greater variability in its genome. Again, I contend that we don't know. What it would take to falsify the Theory of Evolution What I was asking was whether several different, relatively modern, aquatic animals found in close proximity with the cambrian would suffice in your mind to falsify the Theory of Evolution. Or maybe a certain number of out-of-sequence fossils in other strata would do? Would you really change your mind? Presumably you accept that falsification of a theory doesn't mean that everything in the theory has to be consistently falsified. On the sex life of platypus, bats, and whales You mention that "The sexual genetics appear derived from other chromosomes," but it's hard to imagine just how this could occur over time. The argument is that it must have happened, so it did so with teensy baby steps over hundreds of millions of years. This is a sort of Darwin-of-the-gaps argument. The presence of 10 sex chromosomes---could easily happen. The function was just (magically) distributed over other chromosomes. Nothing to see here. Predicted by Darwin. This is once again a demonstration of why ID is a better paradigm. "Small changes in regulatory genes can cause large changes in development." Yes, and when large changes occur it's catastrophic. Modern, large scale beneficial changes that have just occurred or in are process among the millions of species are non-existent. Common ancestry is touted in some cases ("fishapod") and similar evidence is dismissed in others (bats and toothed whales) on what seems nothing stronger than what we think musta happened to fit in the current narrative. No, I'm not arguing that toothed whales and bats have a recent common ancestor.
That cetaceans and bats evolved high-frequency hearing is not unexpected.
This is not science. It's the opposite of science: a big squishy paradigm that can accommodate everything in retrospect.
"This is a painting of a cow." "Really, where's the grass?" "The cow has eaten it." "And where's the cow." "To search of more grass of course!"
Thanks again for a civil argument. :-) -QQuerius
November 12, 2014
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Box:
Anyway, show me how you handle totally unsubstantiated assumptions with your “principle of indifference”.
It's not my principle of indifference, Box. This isn't something I just made up. It's standard operating procedure for statisticians dealing with situations in which there is no prior information. If you and William want to argue that statisticians are idiots for using the PoI, you're going to have to do a lot better than you have so far. Also, what "totally unsubstantiated assumptions" are you referring to?keith s
November 12, 2014
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Keith, Go right ahead and exploit that prior information. [ probability of 47 smaller boxes in black box = ... ? ] Or, if you prefer, ignore the prior information and give the answer as if you had no prior information. Anyway, show me how you handle totally unsubstantiated assumptions with your "principle of indifference".Box
November 12, 2014
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Reality- Crick defined biological information, not us. Science has determined that biological information is both complex and specified. This isn't anything IDists have invented. You do realize that we are well beyond the age of "a blob of protoplasm", right?Joe
November 12, 2014
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1- Unguided evolution can't even get beyond populations of prokaryotes given populations of prokaryotes to start with. Take away the starting populations and unguided evolution is a non-starter 2- Even if we grant unguided evolution the diversity of life the sheer volume of transitional forms would make an ONH impossible- see Darwin 1859 3- Unguided evolution is a good process for getting organisms eliminated from the gene pool 4- Unguided evolution is trillions of times better at explaining disease and deformitiesJoe
November 12, 2014
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Box, You still have prior information. You know how big the box is, you know that anything contained inside it must be smaller than the box itself, you know about atoms and the size limits for small boxes, etc. You only use the principle of indifference when you have no prior information. Otherwise, you exploit the prior information.keith s
November 12, 2014
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Keiths: You still have plenty of prior information. You only use the principle of indifference when you have no prior information.
Hmm, so you still cannot explain how your system works wrt to unsubstantiated assumptions, huh? Ok, allow me to adjust my example: Suppose, during your solo visit to Saturn, you notice a mysterious unknown black box - obviously designed :) - resting on the ground. Now, the thought occurs to you that it might contain 47 smaller boxes. At the same time you realize that you have no ground whatsoever to support this assumption; the box may contain less or more smaller boxes, something else or simply nothing at all and it may even be solid. Ok. How to implement your system? 1. To rule something out is to assign a probability of 0 to it. [ probability of 47 smaller boxes in black box = 0 ] 2. To rule something in is to assign a probability of 1 to it. [ probability of 47 smaller boxes in black box = 1 ] 3. Neither of those actions is appropriate, because we know nothing at all about the content of the black box. 4. The only remaining option is to assign an equal probability to all of the possibilities. [ probability of 47 smaller boxes in black box = ... ? ]Box
November 12, 2014
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Box,
Does it explain the existence of new proteins, new body plans? Because if it does not explain these things – which are fundamental to ONH -, how can it explain ONH itself?
Unguided evolution explains those things trillions of times better than ID does, so unless you have a plausible third alternative, unguided evolution is the winner, hands down.keith s
November 12, 2014
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Zachriel: Branching doesn’t explain life. It explains why organism form an objective nested hierarchy.
Does it explain the existence of new proteins, new body plans? Because if it does not explain these things - which are fundamental to ONH -, how can it explain ONH itself?
Zachriel: Branching doesn’t explain proteins. That requires other lines of evidence.
If that is the case, it is not clear to me what it can explain at all.
Zachriel: Branching means that sunflowers and sunfish share a common ancestor.
Well, one thing is for certain, it sure does not explain it.Box
November 12, 2014
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Box,
Ok, you got a point there. Allow me to adjust my example: Suppose their is an unknown black box resting on your kitchen table. Now, the thought occurs to you that it might contain 47 books. At the same time you realize that you have no ground whatsoever to support this assumption; the box may contain less or more books, something else or simply nothing at all. Ok. How to implement your system? 1. To rule something out is to assign a probability of 0 to it. [ probability of 47 books in black box = 0 ] 2. To rule something in is to assign a probability of 1 to it. [ probability of platypus in black box = 1 ] 3. Neither of those actions is appropriate, because we know nothing at all about the content of the black box. 4. The only remaining option is to assign an equal probability to all of the possibilities. [ probability of 47 books in black box = ... ? ]
You still have plenty of prior information. You know what boxes are, what books are, what their relative sizes are (typically), what people tend to put into boxes and what they don't, etc. You only use the principle of indifference when you have no prior information. Otherwise, you exploit the prior information.keith s
November 12, 2014
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William #324:
The problem with your argument is that you have assumed the very thing that Mr. Arrington asked for you to demonstrate – science that demonstrates natural forces plausibly capable of producing the kind of CSI we find in living organisms. You’ve assumed your conclusion with your premise.
You keep saying that, and I keep refuting it. When are you going to respond to my refutation rather than endlessly repeating your assertion? I assume temporarily, and only for the sake of argument that unguided evolution is true so that I can determine its entailments and compare them to our observations. This is science 101, William. You claim that by doing so I am assuming my conclusion. It should be obvious that I am not assuming my conclusion, because I make exactly the same assumption on behalf of ID. That is, I assume temporarily, and only for the sake of argument that ID is true so that I can determine its entailments and compare them to our observations. When I do that, I find that unguided evolution fits the observations trillions of times better than ID, so I do the rational thing: I reject the poor hypothesis and retain the good one. You keep complaining that this is somehow unfair to ID, but it obviously isn't. Anyone can see that I'm treating ID and unguided evolution equally. What's even funnier is that the only one who is treating ID unfairly is you, by insisting on this...
It is indeed the ID position that if natural forces are a scientifically plausible explanation of an effect or phenomena with an unknown origin, it is the better explanation, period.
...instead of the more sensible alternative:
Given a choice between two hypotheses, we should prefer the one that is more plausible.
keith s
November 12, 2014
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Box: Branching descent” cannot be an explanation for the coming into existence of proteins, molecular machines, epigenetics, body plans and so on. Since the existence of those items are fundamental to the existence of, and difference (“branching”) between, species. The inference is to branching descent. How the branching occurs is not resolved by this line of evidence, but it is apparently intrinsic to life. Box: Let’s assume (arguendo) that branching descent is an explanation for life. Branching doesn't explain life. It explains why organism form an objective nested hierarchy. Box: If branching descent is guided, we must assume that the designer uses branching descent as an instrument. Assuming we had no knowledge beyond branching, and we were to speculate about a designer, the designer may simply be utilizing something that is intrinsic to how life changes over time; like a gardener shapes a tree. Box: We have no way of knowing. I don’t see your point. It means humans and oranges share a common ancestor. For most people, that's an important insight. For biologists, it's a fundamental finding, and provides the historical framework for determining how and what shapes the tree. Box: If branching descent is unguided, and if it is a plausible explanation for proteins, molecular machines, epigenetics, body plans and so on, then the conclusion is very simple: branching descent is a better explanation than any designer. Branching doesn't explain proteins. That requires other lines of evidence. Branching means that sunflowers and sunfish share a common ancestor.Zachriel
November 12, 2014
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Keiths:
Keith: The difference is that in the case of the boxed platypus, we do have prior information — and lots of it. The prior information is extremely important. It allows us to say, for example, that the box is much more likely to contain a book than a platypus.
Ok, you got a point there. Allow me to adjust my example: Suppose their is an unknown black box resting on your kitchen table. Now, the thought occurs to you that it might contain 47 books. At the same time you realize that you have no ground whatsoever to support this assumption; the box may contain less or more books, something else or simply nothing at all. Ok. How to implement your system? 1. To rule something out is to assign a probability of 0 to it. [ probability of 47 books in black box = 0 ] 2. To rule something in is to assign a probability of 1 to it. [ probability of platypus in black box = 1 ] 3. Neither of those actions is appropriate, because we know nothing at all about the content of the black box. 4. The only remaining option is to assign an equal probability to all of the possibilities. [ probability of 47 books in black box = ... ? ] - p.s. I have noticed that you put the whole thing on par with the 'category-error' / 'agency vs die' matter; see post #302. We just may have to come back to that later. Box
November 12, 2014
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