Geography Matters

_{Barry Arrington

April 27, 2020

Intelligent Design}

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In response to my last post (The Data Are in: A Nationwide Lockdown Was Never Necessary) Bob O’H got red in the face, stamped his feet, and apparently insisted that a nationwide lockdown was necessary. Was it? Here is an analysis performed by a friend:

To put US COVID19 cases into perspective, it helps to separate the terrible outbreak in the five-state region of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts from the other 45 states. (Stats as of April 25.)

Total Population
NY-NJ-CT-RI-MA – 39.8 million
Rest of US – 288 million

COVID Cases – Total (per million people)
NY-NJ-CT-RI-MA – 490,675 (12,312)
Rest of US – 496,657 (1,722)

COVID Deaths – Total (per million people)
NY-NJ-CT-RI-MA – 33,262 (835)
Rest of US – 22,153 (77)

HT: Mark Hillman

Those who insist that regional differences make no difference are now in the “willfully obtuse” category.

Comments

DS, I am very aware that the patterns are complex in detail, it is the broad patterns I am pointing out. Coming back, it is fairly obvious that there was an attempted media lynching on this matter, which also is at the same time as telling evidence is coming out on FBI malfeasance on a matter that was a drumbeat for years on end. And much more. Think about the implications of ruining social capital. KFkairosfocus_{April 30, 2020
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JVL, Sorry, phone calls etc. Are you familiar with the Overton Window concept? While that was developed in the US, and speaks to the usual political spectrum, it is more generally applicable to a multi-dimensional zone within which the bulk of respectable opinion operates in a given community. In turn, that is shaped by what is perceived as knowledge, cultural exemplars, idea leadership, what makes for success etc. As a natural result, there is a dominant worldview or range of live options for worldviews, cultural visions, narratives and agendas. That is the context in which I spoke. So yes, there is diversity but it is within a fairly narrow zone relative to major views and thought across time and space. Yes, newspapers etc will come from different points in the local market for ideas, voices, visions and agendas, but other than the extremes, they will cluster in the Overton zone, held there by the opposed walkaway points of strong enough factions and interests. In that setting, there will be a lot more agreement and cohesiveness than one may at first imagine. For example, PM Blair of the UK spoke to how an evangelical Christian would typically be viewed as a nutter. In much of respectable society in Europe, the "expert consensus" on sustainability, climate variability, a Big-S Scientific outlook, some degree of socialistic and even marxist influenced thought etc will be common currency. As a rule non-theism will have much higher prevalence than in other parts of the world. Typically, the USA will be seen and sneered at as half barbarian. For example, in most educated circles in Europe the thought that one has a right to keep and bear arms as a fundamental right seems to be nonsensical and indefensible. And more. In the UK, esp. England, Brexit reveals the peasant uprising I have mentioned.Think about why it took what, THREE votes for the political and chattering classes to grudgingly acknowledge that hoi polloi really mean it. Perhaps, you don't remember the general view that Mr Reagan was dumb, dangerous and a threat to peace. And yet, his input was decisive in winning WW3, the Cold War. While there are many things I dislike about Mr Trump, I also recognise that he is not the idiot and traitor the media have portrayed in lockstep. Including, on this latest matter, where the typical acceptable view among many circles would be absolutely predictable. We shall see in due course. KFkairosfocus_{April 30, 2020
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EG Why so condescending? I would think you would know that the terms Republican and Democrat are two names for political mafia families. I know lots of Republicans too, I left the Republican Party years ago they are for the most part a bunch of frauds There are statists and there are people that want limited Government, I suspect the so called Repubs you mention are statists. I betcha they are affluent white people as well. Interesting enough there are Dems that are coming to realize the frauds their party perpetrates as well such as this me too activist ,don’t expect to see this get much news coverage https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2020/04/29/rose-mcgowan-the-democrats-and-the-media-are-a-cult/ Curious Ed should all woman be believed , you know the mantra used against Kavanaugh? Vividvividbleau_{April 30, 2020
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KF, I personally know many Republicans from the US, and I meet many more during my international meetings. Without an exception, they have voiced their opposition to Trump. Maybe this is because they are highly educated and scientifically literate.Ed George_{April 30, 2020
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KF, I live in one of those "peasant counties" and I can tell you the reality is a bit more complex. I gather you get most of your information about us via the internet rather than on-the-ground interaction?daveS_{April 30, 2020
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DS, the peasant revolt is visible in the electoral map by county. KFkairosfocus_{April 30, 2020
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KairosFocus: people’s views are largely shaped by . . . the media, preferred pundits and voices. Those are going in lockstep, have been and have been consistently wrong on many things. This is a live case in front of us. We can see the way quite plain ideas and suggestions have been frankly malevolently twisted. Gotta disagree with you there KF, big time; at least in Europe. Remember, newspapers in Europe are extremely biased which means you can have access to lots and lots of different views at the same newsstand. And, I've got to say in England at least, the country has discovered it's deeply split on many, many issues, Brexit being the one you're probably most familiar with from recent times. But they are all, liberals and conservatives, unified in their opinion of Donal Trump. It's not a matter of the media dictating beliefs; it a case of a lot of people having access to non-sound bite excerpts from Presidential speeches, press conferences and Tweets and them deciding on their own that The Donald is sadly not up to the job. Maybe in the 60s if you were a CBS fan you followed the views of their editorial staff because you thought Walter Cronkite was fair and objective but these days a lot of people are exposed to a lot of differing views and they make up their own minds. Maybe not so much in North Dakota but in London, Paris, Rome, Berlin, Madrid, Copenhagen, The Hague, Lisbon, Geneva, Stockholm, Helsinki, and all over Europe it's no longer a one-size-fits-all mentality. If you live in England and you don't like the BBC you don't have to depend on them for your news. Same with The Times or The Mail or The Independent or The Mirror or The Telegraph or The Sun (those are all national English newspapers available in every city, town, village and hamlet and all having different opinions) or ITV or Skye or Channel 4 (television content providers that are NOT the BBC). I can even get Algezzera (misspelled, I know) and CNN news feeds for free! Like I said, maybe in Fargo there is only one real newspaper and a couple of local television news sources but in Europe there are tons and tons and tons of choices.JVL_{April 30, 2020
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KF, I'll have you know I'm purebred white trash myself. Also I think your assessment of the situation displays a lack of understanding of what life is really like in the US beyond the cardboard stereotypes.daveS_{April 30, 2020
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DS, what WE might prefer is now largely irrelevant. Our technocratic voices, elite school grads, Rhodes scholars and more failed the people of the hinterlands, on both sides of the Atlantic. The deplorables have had enough of us, and of our failed compromises; in the US after a generation of hinterland stagnation. They are rising up in a peasant uprising, so far by ballot box and Youtube etc. Believe you me, they are watching, live, as they see this case and others and they are making some decisions about the snooty coastal elites, boffins, technocrats, polished voices etc. US, I say, US. We have been weighed in the balance and found wanting, for cause. And if we think we will ever get back to our comfortable business as usual, we are sadly mistaken. Especially in the case of the US. We need to think again. KFkairosfocus_{April 30, 2020
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EG & JVL: people's views are largely shaped by . . . the media, preferred pundits and voices. Those are going in lockstep, have been and have been consistently wrong on many things. This is a live case in front of us. We can see the way quite plain ideas and suggestions have been frankly malevolently twisted. This is happening literally just as the formerly credible FBI is being found trying to frame and twist someone to make up a further level of accusations, using his family as hostages; on a matter that for months to years on end was the basis for lockstep, two minute hate accusations almost across the board, that are now unravelling in what begins to look like Watergate on steroids. None of this is doing any good for the social capital our civilisation already desperately needs. I only hope that it is not already too late. KFkairosfocus_{April 30, 2020
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Ed George: Even people from other countries are ridiculing him for this exchange with the doctors during his press conference. People who have no card in the US politics game. Are you related to Elizabeth George or Melissa George? Christopher George? Anyway, I can confirm that people in other countries are ridiculing the PoTUS. Like him or hate him he is a liability on the international scene.JVL_{April 30, 2020
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ET: Does anyone in the USA care what Europeans think? No, we do not. Good thing you're not on a trade negotiation team! Any objective person watching Trump would have known he was being sarcastic. You have to be a complete moron on an agenda to think he was being serious. I don't remember anyone suggesting that at the time. But I'd be happy to walk that back if contrary evidence was presented.JVL_{April 30, 2020
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DaveS
Some of us might care a little bit.
I would think that only a short-sighted xenophobe, homophobic toaster repairman wouldn't. :)Ed George_{April 30, 2020
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Ed George is one of the most dishonest people ever. Any objective person watching Trump would have known he was being sarcastic. You have to be a complete moron on an agenda to think he was being serious. Enter Eddie. HCQ has proven to be effective against covid 19. And no one was shorted their medications because he spoke of HCQ. Ed George is just a pathetic little trollET_{April 30, 2020
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ET,
Does anyone in the USA care what Europeans think? No, we do not.
Some of us might care a little bit. :PdaveS_{April 30, 2020
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KF
EG, now you are trying to set up and knock over a strawman.
Even Trump does not deny saying that he thought injecting disinfectants might be worth looking in to. He followed up by saying that he was being sarcastic, which no person who saw the original video would honestly conclude that he was being sarcastic.
BO’H: Snipping out of context, pushing into a different context and thus creating a strawman caricature to knock over.
That was not out of context. He talked about light and heat (i.e., getting outside in the sun) and injecting disinfectants (i.e., using the technique used to disinfect household surfaces on humans through injection).
BO’H, tripling down on the strawman fallacy now. As I annotated, Mr Trump emphatically and repeatedly spoke to light, especially UV light as THE active agent in his mind and in prior conversations with the presenter who had done experiments.
Yes, he mentioned light, and I can accept that it was in reference to the UV treatment being tested in hospital, but how does heat and humidity come into the equation? Even people from other countries are ridiculing him for this exchange with the doctors during his press conference. People who have no card in the US politics game. You keep accusing others of selective hyper skepticism but fail to notice the beam in your own eye. Your animosity towards liberals is so great that you look at any possible explanation for Trump's words other than what they mean, even after Trump himself tries to walk them back by saying he was being sarcastic to see what the media would do..
What would it have taken to accept this as a bit of impromptu brainstorming,
As Bob mentioned, everyone admits that this was impromptu brainstorming. Don't you understand how dangerous public brainstorming by the "leader of the free world" can be? He publicly brainstormed about HCQ and created a shortage in the drug for people who use it for scientifically confirmed treatments. He publicly brainstormed about injecting disinfectants and calls to poison control centres increase. Being a businessman, he should know about the danger about brainstorming in the public. Those discussions are best held behind closed doors where all of the possible consequences of actions can be discussed.Ed George_{April 30, 2020
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Does anyone in the USA care what Europeans think? No, we do not.ET_{April 30, 2020
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Jerry: I have a question. If someone consistently gets something wrong or irrelevant as you do what is the statistical chance this person is a good source for information or good judgment on anything? Which is pretty much how most Europeans view Donald Trump. In fact he scares them a bit since he has nuclear launch codes and a completely US-centric view of economics and politics.JVL_{April 30, 2020
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KF,
Mr Trump spoke colloquially, but quite coherently.
I'll just say it's not quite up to the standard I expect from a president addressing the nation. He actually is quite good at delivering prepared remarks. Mike Pence is also an excellent speaker (and consistently strikes the right tone). With such a solid team behind him, I don't see why he doesn't simply cut back on the improvisation a bit.daveS_{April 30, 2020
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DS, Mr Trump spoke colloquially, but quite coherently. The major blame here is on those who snipped out of context, set up a strawman and indulged destructive slander. And as news is edited where also AP is received by all major media houses, it is obvious that they had every opportunity to know better. Unfortunately this is all of a piece with what is a clear pattern of agit prop action in what is no longer news and views coverage but ruthless operations in the information battlespace of a 4th gen civil war. KFkairosfocus_{April 30, 2020
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I think it's true that some of the criticism of the "disinfectant" comments were unfair or simply false. On the other hand, semi-coherent rambling during a news conference on a medical emergency is probably never a good idea.daveS_{April 30, 2020
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The gift that keeps on giving. Of course it is possible to inject any disinfectant into the blood stream. Nobody would deny that. Nobody recommended that. Trump did not recommend that. Trump didn’t say what is obviously possible. He said something else, speculating. He made an analogy to another common medical practice, the injection of something like a disinfectant, something that kills microbes. What is in the news but an injection that kills microbes. it may rid the body of microbes by killing them. Or to use Laymen’s term it may clean the body of this particular germ. Why the attempts to distort? That is the interesting question.jerry_{April 30, 2020
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BO'H, tripling down on the strawman fallacy now. As I annotated, Mr Trump emphatically and repeatedly spoke to light, especially UV light as THE active agent in his mind and in prior conversations with the presenter who had done experiments. What I can see is how right Aristotle was when he warned that our judgements when we are pleased and friendly are not as those we make when we are pained and hostile. KF PS: On through the skin, let's do an exercise. Get a bright flashlight. Go into a darkened room, cover it with your hand and turn it on. Notice how translucent your hands are, almost like an X-Ray. Similarly, put it against your leg, your belly, your chest and see how the glow spreads out. But of course the relevant context is the Cedars-Sinai work. PPS: Note also, his emphatic reference to medical practitioners. He definitely did not have amateurish self-poisoning in mind. Nor, did he invite it.kairosfocus_{April 30, 2020
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Jerry @ 86 -
Can you read? A disinfectant kills microbes. The word “like” was used.
Yes, I can read. what he said was
And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it’d be interesting to check that so that you’re going to have to use medical doctors with, but it sounds interesting to me.
The word "like" was done in the context of doing something like that - doing something like injecting disinfectants. I'm pretty sure most people would interpret that as using disinfectants, not another group of chemicals. kf -
>>Sounds interesting, right? And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in one minute.>> — Definite article, and a reference to an antecedent, in context, light and UV, possibly heat [which can be radiation]
Yes, definite article, and reference to an antcedent. Now, let's search the transcript for all other uses of "disinfect". Here's the first three, in their full paragraphs:
Bill Bryan: (28:34) For example, increasing the temperature and humidity of potentially contaminated indoor spaces appears to reduce the stability of the virus, and extra care may be warranted for dry environments that do not have exposure to solar light. We’re also testing disinfectants readily available. We’ve tested bleach, we’ve tested isopropyl alcohol on the virus specifically in saliva or in respiratory fluids and I can tell you that bleach will kill the virus in five minutes. Isopropyl alcohol will kill the virus in 30 seconds and that’s with no manipulation, no rubbing. Just bring it on and leaving it go. You rub it and it goes away even faster. We’re also looking at other disinfectants, specifically looking at the COVID-19 virus in saliva. This is not the end of our work. As we continue to characterize this virus and integrate our findings into practical applications to mitigate exposure and transmission. I would like to thank the president, thank the vice president for their ongoing support and leadership to the department and for their work in addressing this pandemic. I would also like to thank the scientists not only in S and T and the NBAC, but to the larger scientific and R and D community. Thank you very much. Donald Trump: (29:46) A question that probably some of you are thinking of if you’re totally into that world, which I find to be very interesting. So, supposedly we hit the body with a tremendous, whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light, and I think you said that hasn’t been checked, but you’re going to test it. And then I said supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. And I think you said you’re going to test that too. Sounds interesting, right? And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it’d be interesting to check that so that you’re going to have to use medical doctors with, but it sounds interesting to me. So, we’ll see, but the whole concept of the light, the way it kills it in one minute. That’s pretty powerful. Steve, please.
So the only antecedent use of disinfectants is about the chemicals.Bob O'H_{April 30, 2020
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BO'H, given the context of effects of temperature, humidity, sunlight and UV, let's note on points with Mr Trump's remarks:
>>A question that probably some of you are thinking of>> --> yes, hence the Cedars Sinai initiative and others >>if you’re totally into that world, which I find to be very interesting. >> --> he intends to speak from a lateral viewpoint, not from inside the "world" >>So, supposedly we hit the body with a tremendous [dose?],>> --> Here, we see a colloquial manner of speech, not polished rhetoric, which here serves to connect with hoi polloi, so he feels free to so speak >>whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light, and I think you said that hasn’t been checked, but you’re going to test it.>> -- He seems to have discussed in some fashion prior, likely he has heard of the Cedars Sinai initiative or the like; he is tossing into the public domain an exploration of hope -- He may also be trolling his opponents, setting them up to "misunderestimate" >>And then I said>> -- Alludes to a past exchange with the expert, so he is drawing out publicly >> supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. >> -- Notice he is extending the observed impact of light including UV into the body not just the air and surfaces, as this is effective in killing the virus >>And I think you said you’re going to test that too.>> -- They had done experiments on how heat, humidity, sunlight, UV kill the virus -- Further confirmation of a prior discussion >>Sounds interesting, right? And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in one minute.>> -- Definite article, and a reference to an antecedent, in context, light and UV, possibly heat [which can be radiation] -- He is impressed by swift action, one minute to the knock out. >> And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning>> -- Confirms that he wants to get the cluster described inside the body >> because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs,>> -- the target zone for the attack on the virus is the respiratory system, especially the lungs as that is where the virus -- obvious antecedent to this IT -- primarily attacks -- we are only now learning of secondary attacks on organs and the blood stream >> so it’d be interesting to check that>> -- a research direction >> so that you’re going to have to use medical doctors with,>> -- he understands that this is a context where research and hoped for clinical interventions have to be through medical practitioners, this is no self-medication situation >> but it sounds interesting to me.>> -- he scents opportunity >> So, we’ll see,>> -- he expects action, hopes for a good outcome but this is not certainty >> but the whole concept of the light, >> -- he primarily has light in mind >>the way itkills it in one minute.>> -- It is light that he saw as killing the virus in one minute, based on the remarks presented by the expert and prior discussion -- grammatically and stylistically messy, but clear enough
His context is clear, and the focus on [UV]light as primary "disinfectant" is confirmed. he is extending a body of experiment, towards can this be done in the body, under medical supervision. the strawman caricature by snipping out of context and substituting another is clear. Indeed, it was always clear, it was only because of insistence on doubling down that this sort of point by point became necessary. We have some serious thinking to do about where we are headed as a civilisation. KFkairosfocus_{April 30, 2020
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So, yes, he was explicitly talking about injecting disinfectants
Can you read? A disinfectant kills microbes. The word “like” was used. Many medical injections act like disinfectants in that they end up killing microbes. I have a question. If someone consistently gets something wrong or irrelevant as you do what is the statistical chance this person is a good source for information or good judgment on anything? I always maintain you are pro ID and in this case pro HCQ because with numerous comments so far you are consistently wrong or irrelevant. It cannot be by chance. It must be a deliberate strategy.jerry_{April 30, 2020
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What would it have taken to accept this as a bit of impromptu brainstorming,
I agree, that's what it was. But impromptu brainstorming in public is a really bad idea for a US president to do, especially during an epidemic that's already killed more Americans than the Vietnam war.
And what is the disinfectant most commonly used to purify drinking water in carefully regulated doses but which is widely regarded as dangerously corrosive, complete with a tellingly sharp odour as either an aqueous solution or a sickly green-yellow gas known to have been used as the first war gas? (emphasis added)
The one the US president was publically speculating about injecting into people, during his impromptu brainstorming.
Did you notice that there are treatments that inject H2O2, another common disinfectant and bleaching/oxidising agent?
Yes, treatments which are decried by most doctors, and which CBS implied was a prescription for death.Bob O'H_{April 30, 2020
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BO'H: Snipping out of context, pushing into a different context and thus creating a strawman caricature to knock over. What would it have taken to accept this as a bit of impromptu brainstorming, connect to what is happening with UV and light therapies . . . including what was circulated on AP a day or two before . . . and note that the better vocabulary would be X, Y, Z? Or is it that the ignorant, stupid, insane or wicked projection must be maintained, for agit prop purposes and gaining a sympathetic understanding of a NYC Contractor as Contractor in Chief (which is not exactly a compliment, but would be fair minded and reasonable) would be fatal? All my red flags on agit prop, willful promotion of poisonous polarisation, hysterical divisiveness and more are tripped. Add to the mix the trollish question a few days later, suggesting that the mere presence and progress of a pandemic in the US is tantamount to the blunders of the Vietnam war, reveals an attitude of implacable and irresponsible hostility that is fatal to sober journalism. Ultimately, the price of this is fatal disaffection. Just remember, when the Athenians withdrew into their coastal, urban enclave, cut off from their hinterlands, it did not go well. KF PS: Kindly, cf 74 above. What is it that the Italians know? The South Koreans, Israelis, Indians, Brazilians etc? PPS: And what is the disinfectant most commonly used to purify drinking water in carefully regulated doses but which is widely regarded as dangerously corrosive, complete with a tellingly sharp odour as either an aqueous solution or a sickly green-yellow gas known to have been used as the first war gas? Were manufacturers daft when they shifted from 5.25 to 8.25%? Or, does that show, confidence that the general public understand what they are dealing with here? Did you notice that there are treatments that inject H2O2, another common disinfectant and bleaching/oxidising agent? Did you duly note the research context towards a therapy, where serious diseases are not to be treated by amateurish self-medication? Are you noticing the emergent police investigation of the last poison scandal, fish tank cleaner, as a homicide? And more?kairosfocus_{April 30, 2020
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Jerry @ 76 - kf posted transcripts @ 72, including this from Trump:
And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it’d be interesting to check that so that you’re going to have to use medical doctors with, but it sounds interesting to me.
So, yes, he was explicitly talking about injecting disinfectants. And what do most most households use as a disinfectant? Bleach.Bob O'H_{April 30, 2020
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Jerry KF Can’t make this stuff up if true. Remember the Az couple that ingested fish tank cleaner and Trump got blamed by the media and certain posters here? According to the Washington Free Beacon turns out there is an active investigation concerning his wife who had a previous citation for domestic violence against her husband. She was a democratic donor ( thousands of dollars over the last few years)she also donated money to a pro science resistance PAC. Her deceased husband was an engineer . “Hoaxed” Vividvividbleau_{April 29, 2020
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