Geography Matters

_{Barry Arrington

April 27, 2020

Intelligent Design}

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In response to my last post (The Data Are in: A Nationwide Lockdown Was Never Necessary) Bob O’H got red in the face, stamped his feet, and apparently insisted that a nationwide lockdown was necessary. Was it? Here is an analysis performed by a friend:

To put US COVID19 cases into perspective, it helps to separate the terrible outbreak in the five-state region of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts from the other 45 states. (Stats as of April 25.)

Total Population
NY-NJ-CT-RI-MA – 39.8 million
Rest of US – 288 million

COVID Cases – Total (per million people)
NY-NJ-CT-RI-MA – 490,675 (12,312)
Rest of US – 496,657 (1,722)

COVID Deaths – Total (per million people)
NY-NJ-CT-RI-MA – 33,262 (835)
Rest of US – 22,153 (77)

HT: Mark Hillman

Those who insist that regional differences make no difference are now in the “willfully obtuse” category.

Comments

Jerry & Vivid, you clearly have serious points. Sobering, given what we see in the large and even on the micro scale of this blog. I hold no brief for Mr Trump, but the underlying breakdown of responsible reason is a serious sign of our times. KFkairosfocus_{April 29, 2020
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EG, now you are trying to set up and knock over a strawman. The transcript is above, a minor point -- and one where Mr Trump's instincts were demonstrably right -- has been snipped out of context, another context involving Chlorox and Lysol has been substituted, and the corrective reference to an actual use of UV to irradiate the trachea has been censored. Then, the strawman has been pounded away on propagandistically by people who do or should know better. Now that I point this out, complete with transcript this has been transmuted into how I am imagining that public statements need not be judicious. That speaks, speaks tellingly. KF PS: If you think we are not taking due note of the relevance of all this when matters of inference on signs in general are on the table -- especially signs of design -- think again. In short, the centrality of first principles and duties of responsible reason are on the table.kairosfocus_{April 29, 2020
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Jerry “Who said anything about bleach. Trump didn’t but you did. You would have to look at people like yourself who are distorting this as the ones responsible. Why would they do this? I suggest you examine their motives.“ Yeh for example Ed did this awhile back, he distorted Trumps words, I asked him four times where Trump said what Ed said he said, it was like a black hole totally ignored, crickets. Vividvividbleau_{April 29, 2020
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Vivid, All. the resistance to Trump and HCQ is about politics. There is no semblance of caring for people dying or not. From my comment above
I mentioned the other day that if Trump had disparaged HCQ, all the headlines in the news would be “Trump has blood on his hands” because he dissed a potential life saving drug. So many do not really care about people’s lives until it gets personal. It’s like the famous scene on the Ferris wheel in the Third Man when Orson Wells describes the people down below like dots when seen from a height.
In this case they are not dots but just statistics on a chart showing number of people dead.jerry_{April 29, 2020
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KF One word and must see is “”Hoaxed” Haters of Trump are gonna hate no amount of facts is going to change that. He was a xenophobic and racist when he shut down travel now he did not do it soon enough. He was more concerned with Wall Street then he shut down the whole economy. Now he wants to open economy and we’re back to Wall Street. Remember Russia Russia Russia another a hoax. Trump could cure cancer and Bob and Ed would bitch that he is putting doctors out of work. It just goes on an on ,actually it would be fun to watch if the consequences were not so grave. Remember Kavanaugh? All this believe women BS from the left? What happened? The deception promulgated by the left is disgusting regarding believe women, yeh right. Vividvividbleau_{April 29, 2020
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If you’re right and Trump’s comments weren’t careless, then that’s even worse. He was talking about a dangerous, potentially fatal, treatment, and suggesting (with absolutely no evidence) that it might work. To carelessly suggest this is dumb. If it wasn’t careless, then he has a a lot of culpability for the increase in bleach poisoning that followed his words.
What was the dangerous and potentially fatal treatment? I did not see any. Trump talked about an injection. One of the prominent drugs promoted is administered by injection. And. the market rose about 300 points today on favorable mention of Remdesivir, administers by injection. Fauci said the news was good,. I'm not a fan of Fauci or Remdesivir but the market reacted positively to an injection. Who said anything about bleach. Trump didn't but you did. You would have to look at people like yourself who are distorting this as the ones responsible. Why would they do this? I suggest you examine their motives.jerry_{April 29, 2020
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KF, so, you don’t think that those with significant authority and influence should be judicious with their words and be held accountable for them?Ed George_{April 29, 2020
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BO'H, note from 55 above, the remark in an Italian article:
Hydroxychloroquine is one of the treatments against Coronavirus being tested, and is approved by AIFA (Italian Medicines Agency). The pioneer in this field is the Director of Hematology-Oncology of Piacenza, Luigi Cavanna. It was the first in Italy to use it, an intuition that is proving significant. “Since February 25, I have treated 209 patients and in 90% of cases the response has been positive. Hospitalizations have collapsed: from 30% of hospitalized (serious or moderate cases) to less than 5% “. The change, according to Cavanna, came with the administration of hydroxychloroquine from the earliest stages of the disease, when patients were at home, and resulted in the hospitalization of very few cases in acute conditions. A treatment that, according to preliminary data collected and systematized by 5 different ASLs on 1,039 patients, is working throughout Italy.
KFkairosfocus_{April 29, 2020
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EG, do you see your assumptions and projections of contempt? That already speaks. As to suggestion, it is word associations combined with the known common inattention to substance and context. KF PS: Dr Birx recently on an interview:
Dr. Birx: “Well, you know I’ve had privilege to do media all over the world. Uh, people may not have seen me before ’cause it’s primarily been in South Africa and Asia because I’ve been working on vaccines and therapeutics and pandemics around the globe for a number of years. Um, I, I think the media, is, um, very slicey and dicey about how they put sentences together in order to create headlines. I think, you know, Amer…we know for millennials and other studies that some people may only read the headlines. Um, and if there’s not a graphic they’e not gonna look any further than that. And I think, we have to be responsible about our headlines. I think often the, the reporting may be accurate in paragraph three, four and five but I’m not sure how many people actually get to paragraph three, four and five. And I think the responsibility that the press has is to really ensure that the headlines reflect the science and data that is in their piece itself.”
A sobering warning.kairosfocus_{April 29, 2020
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F/N: Transcript: >>[ . . . ] Bill Bryan: (26:09) So, the virus is dying at a much more rapid pace just from exposure to higher temperatures and just from exposure to humidity. If you look at the fourth line, you inject the sunlight into that, you inject UV rays into that, the same effects on line two as 70 to 75 degrees with 80% humidity on the surface and look at line four but now you inject the sun, the half-life goes from six hours to two minutes. That’s how much of an impact UV rays has on the virus. The last two lines are aerosols, what does it do in the air? We have a very unique capability, I was discussing this with the president prior to coming out, he wanted me to convey it to you on how we do this. I believe we’re the only lab in the country that has this capability, but if you can imagine a five gallon Home Depot bucket, we’re able to take a particle, and this was design developed and designed by our folks at the NBAC. We’re able to take a particle of a virus and suspend it in the air inside of this drum and hit it with various temperatures, various humidity levels, multiple different kinds of environmental conditions to include sunlight. And we’re able to measure the decay of that virus while it’s suspended in the air. This is how we do our aerosol testing. Bill Bryan: (27:22) We worked with John Hopkins’ applied physics lab and we actually developed a larger drum to actually do more testing and it’s four times the size of that. So, this is the capability that we bring to this effort. So, in summary, within the conditions we’ve tested today, the virus in droplets of saliva survives best in indoors and dry conditions. The virus does not survive as well in droplets of saliva, and that’s important because a lot of testing being done is not necessarily being done, number one, with the COVID-19 virus and number two, in saliva or respiratory fluids. And thirdly, the virus dies the quickest in the presence of direct sunlight under these conditions. And when you look at that chart, look at the aerosol as you breathe it, you put it in a room, 70 to 75 degrees, 20% humidity, low humidity. Half-life is about an hour, but you get outside and it cuts down to a minute and a half. Very significant difference when it gets hit with UV rays. Mr. president, while there are many unknown links in the COVID-19 transmission chain, we believe these trends can support practical decision making to lower the risks associated with the virus. If I could have my next slide and while that comes up, you’ll see a number of some practical applications . . . . Donald Trump: (29:46) A question that probably some of you are thinking of if you’re totally into that world, which I find to be very interesting. So, supposedly we hit the body with a tremendous, whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light, and I think you said that hasn’t been checked, but you’re going to test it. And then I said supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. And I think you said you’re going to test that too. Sounds interesting, right? And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it’d be interesting to check that so that you’re going to have to use medical doctors with, but it sounds interesting to me. So, we’ll see, but the whole concept of the light, the way it kills it in one minute. That’s pretty powerful. Steve, please. Steve: (30:50) You said that the country will be in a better place by early summer. Does that mean you’re going to need to extend the social distancing guidelines until then? Donald Trump: (30:57) Well, we may and we may go beyond that. We’re going to have to see where it is and I think people are going to know. You’re going to know, I’m going to know. I think people are going to know just out of common sense, at some point we won’t have to do that, but until we feel it’s safe, we’re going to be extending. Steve: (31:12) You have 23 States where new cases are on decline. What does that mean about when the country can be safely reopened to a more normal point? Donald Trump: (31:24) Yeah. It means we’re going to watch those cases very carefully. I think we’ve all gotten very good at it. We’ve gotten good at tracing. We see where the cases are, where they’re going, and we’re going to be watching it and it’s called containment. At a certain point, we’re going to be able to contain, and when you see this, a lot of people have been talking about summer. Maybe this is one of the reasons. I once mentioned that maybe it does go away with heat and light and people didn’t like that statement very much. The fake news didn’t like it at all and I just threw it out as a suggestion, but it seems like that’s the case because when it’s on a surface that would last for a long time, when that surface is outside, it goes away very quickly. It dies very quickly with the sun. Yeah, go ahead.>> A start point. KFkairosfocus_{April 29, 2020
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KF
BO’H, with all respect, nonsense. Mr Trump did not ever remotely suggest self-medication with Lysol or Chlorox. That was suggested by his accusers and twisters. Had the media acted responsibly, we would not be seeing any debate on such.
How does the media ridiculing the stupidity of his statements lead to people trying to self medicate with disinfectants? This doesn’t make any logical sense.Ed George_{April 29, 2020
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EG, see the just above. KFkairosfocus_{April 29, 2020
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BO'H, with all respect, nonsense. Mr Trump did not ever remotely suggest self-medication with Lysol or Chlorox. That was suggested by his accusers and twisters. Had the media acted responsibly, we would not be seeing any debate on such. Further to this, what we SHOULD be discussing is how this case further demonstrates the dishonest nature of ever so much of the media and political elites. They have carried out a plainly cynical agit prop operation, and show that the only reasonable response is to regard them as utterly untrustworthy, dangerous liars and slanderers willing to do whatever they can get away with for power. And, this is not isolated, it is manifestly part of a pattern sustained for years on end. In short they are playing with fatal disaffection. Only an utter fool plays with those matches. KFkairosfocus_{April 29, 2020
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KF
EG, it was not Mr Trump’s comments but the implicit suggestion in how they were twisted.
No, it was his comments. He mentions chloroquine with very little supporting evidence and people who need it for true and tested treatment can’t get it. He talks about using disinfectants as a treatment and people poison themselves. When Trump tweets a lot, the stock market falls. Those who have authority and influence over others have an obligation to think about the words they use. I don’t see what is so difficult to understand about that.Ed George_{April 29, 2020
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Jerry -
Two things, first Trump’s comments were not careless. It was a layman’s explanation of how to possibly kill the virus. A proposed solution to the virus in an injection that would possibly kill the virus.
If you're right and Trump's comments weren't careless, then that's even worse. He was talking about a dangerous, potentially fatal, treatment, and suggesting (with absolutely no evidence) that it might work. To carelessly suggest this is dumb. If it wasn't careless, then he has a a lot of culpability for the increase in bleach poisoning that followed his words. kf -
We had the response of an entrepreneurial executive with an ear for possible solutions, semi-brainstorming. If UV and temperature act as disinfectants, could they be got into the body as treatments? And that is exactly what is being explored.
I think to explore that privately is fine. But that's not what Trump did. The danger of talking about it publicly is that people will think it's worth trying, even though there's no evidence it would work, and plenty of evidence that it could be dangerous. You would hope that a president would realise that their words matter, and are listened to, so they should be careful not to say something that could be construed as encouraging dangerous behaviour.Bob O'H_{April 29, 2020
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Jerry, it's actually more. I gather, someone was talking about effects of sunlight and heat on the virus. We had the response of an entrepreneurial executive with an ear for possible solutions, semi-brainstorming. If UV and temperature act as disinfectants, could they be got into the body as treatments? And that is exactly what is being explored. Which had been circulated through AP only a few days before, so the had easy access. Instead, somebody at NYT tried to shut down a video. So again, "who benefits from a climate of fear, hype, accusation, anger and polarisation"? Who say, thesis antithesis . . . implied crisis . . . synthesis? Or, never let a crisis go to waste? Those are very familiar tactics. KFkairosfocus_{April 29, 2020
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The fact that calls to poison centres increased significantly after Trump’s careless comments speaks volumes
Two things, first Trump's comments were not careless. It was a layman's explanation of how to possibly kill the virus. A proposed solution to the virus in an injection that would possibly kill the virus. That is essentially a form of disinfectant. Especially after the discussion of the uv inside the body treatment. Second, I would look at the incredible distortion by the press as the actual culprit and then people piling on with jokes and misinterpretations about it. So those who made a joke about it or a misinterpretation of what he said, should look in the mirror as helping this misinformation travel around the internet and affect some individuals counterproductive attempts to fight the virus.jerry_{April 29, 2020
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EG, it was not Mr Trump's comments but the implicit suggestion in how they were twisted. If they had highlighted instead that someone is exploring the use of UV light in a modern way . . . they used to pass blood out of the body and irradiate it . . . the effect would have been different. Likewise, why desperation when there are in fact credible treatments on the table with a good track record of working when used early enough? Ans, they poisoned that, too so at best it is moving ahead under the radar. All of which leads me to think that patterns have designed causes, here who benefits from a climate of fear, hype, accusation, anger and polarisation. On that one, he spoke a day or two after the FDA had issued their early compassionate use etc permission. Had they reported it straight there would be a very different public attitude. Likewise, how hard is it to say, that Covid-19 is a serious disease and treatments need to be under a medical practitioner? Including, that drugs are poisons in small, useful doses but should not be treated lightly or carelessly. Nearly the same, for disinfectants -- but I notice, you all have gone to 8.25% for something as corrosive as bleach, suggesting that you expect a different level of awareness and due caution. The creation of a deeply polarised public climate in the USA has sobering consequences, not least, when the US Media eventually do say important truth, people will be so turned off and hold them in such contempt that they will not listen. I have spoken to how social capital has been burned up. By the time people realise the cost it will be far too late. KFkairosfocus_{April 29, 2020
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The fact that calls to poison centres increased significantly after Trump's careless comments speaks volumes. Desperate people will try anything. And whether we like it or not, the President is a voice of authority and his words, often poorly thought out, have consequences. Consequences that he should be held accountable for.Ed George_{April 29, 2020
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BO'H, red herring. The material point is that we routinely ingest a disinfectant in reasonable dosage as part of our daily lives. Chlorine bleach solution in a different concentration 1:10 in water, is used as a surface disinfectant; including, to target Covid-19 and other corona viruses. Chlorox or similar branded products are used by individuals when water is suspect [as I did for years with the water supply in my native city on realising I was reacting to it; I suspected old piping], but Chlorine gas is routinely used in municipal water supply systems. Further to this, the manufacturer and the EPA expect ordinary people to have the common sense to treat bleach with respect and even to disinfect water they are going to drink with it. This is on top of the piled on now manifestly deliberate agit prop big lie twisting of what Mr Trump said and tried to say, inserting terms like Lysol and Chlorox which were not present in order to try to poison attitudes. That speaks telling volumes, tripping red warning flags. KF PS: let me add, the FAQ is there in the context of irresponsible and frankly dishonest media and politicians adding words and ideas that were not there, creating a projection and suggestion. The idea that people would self-medicate with serious drugs or chemicals in the face of a fast moving life threatening disease itself says something. If proper public education was an aim, that is what would be being addressed. 4th gen civil war information battlespace, yet again.kairosfocus_{April 29, 2020
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F/N Follow up on intravenous hydrogen peroxide -- H2O2 -- therapy https://www.austinozone.com/therapies/intravenous-hydrogen-peroxide-therapy/ And yes that is a disinfectant being used intravenously under physician control. A related O3 ozone therapy sees familiar objections:
"In bio-oxidative medicine, oxygen is introduced directly into the body as hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) or as ozone (O3). Although ozone is used safely and with great benefit throughout Europe and in many other parts of the world, the medical establishment in the United States refuses to recognize it as a valid therapy and actively persecutes doctors who use it. Luckily, hydrogen peroxide is not treated in this way, even though it is an equally powerful oxidative approach."
It seems there is need for rebalancing. KFkairosfocus_{April 29, 2020
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kf @ 57 - I think you should make it clear that Chlorox weren't recommending drinking bleach solution as a cure for COVID-19, but as an alternative to boiling water, when there a clean water supply isn't available. In their FAQs, they have one specifically about COVID-19, which says
Bleach and other disinfectants are not suitable for consumption or injection under any circumstances. People should always read the label for proper usage instructions. Disinfecting surfaces with bleach and other disinfecting products is one of the ways to help stop the spread of COVID-19, according to the Centers for Disease Control. Our products are safe when used properly. It’s critical that everyone understands the facts in order to keep themselves safe and healthy, which is why we continue to educate people about how to use disinfectants safely and effectively against COVID-19.
Bob O'H_{April 29, 2020
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Jerry, that is a sign of agit prop and linked breakdown of objective, rational thinking shaped by duty to truth, right reason, prudence etc. Very bad signs. KFkairosfocus_{April 29, 2020
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toxic political polarisation
Toxic polarization most definitely. There are polls that show that nearly all Democrats would not use the drug while a majority of Republicans would. There was an article yesterday in the Wall Street Journal titled
The Secret Group of Scientists and Billionaires Pushing a Manhattan Project for Covid-19
It trashed HCQ and the comments contained a mixture of pro and anti HCQ. I bet based on political leanings. I mentioned the other day that if Trump had disparaged HCQ, all the headlines in the news would be "Trump has blood on his hands" because he dissed a potential life saving drug. So many do not really care about people's lives until it gets personal. It's like the famous scene on the Ferris wheel in the Third Man when Orson Wells describes the people down below like dots when seen from a height.jerry_{April 28, 2020
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F/N: Just to confirm, I went to Chlorox, who recommend that one use regular unscented bleach purchased within the last 4 months [ this is the 5.25% conc], at a rate of 8 drops per gallon in clear, non-cloudy water and let stand for 30 minutes. For the newer 8.25% Sodium Hypochlorite version, a suggestion would be 5 drops per gallon. These are US, Wine Gallon gallons, 3.785 l/Gal. The imperial gallon is about 20% larger. I also would then pass through a carbon filter such as Brita, to get back a decent taste. Notice, the manufacturer feels that the public can be trusted enough to be given such highly concentrated bleach and that it will be reasonably able to use it to purify water without poisoning itself. KF PS: Cross checked, memory is wrong, Betadine is povidone-iodinekairosfocus_{April 28, 2020
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BTW, strong rumour here is, we are about to go into a third cycle of 24/7 lockdown. I am queasy about this, as the rumour just got featured in the news, tickling my management of expectations whiskers. KFkairosfocus_{April 28, 2020
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Jerry, per Google Translate on your linked Italian language article . . . which is certainly available to the media houses:
Hydroxychloroquine is one of the treatments against Coronavirus being tested, and is approved by AIFA (Italian Medicines Agency). The pioneer in this field is the Director of Hematology-Oncology of Piacenza, Luigi Cavanna. It was the first in Italy to use it, an intuition that is proving significant. “Since February 25, I have treated 209 patients and in 90% of cases the response has been positive. Hospitalizations have collapsed: from 30% of hospitalized (serious or moderate cases) to less than 5% ". The change, according to Cavanna, came with the administration of hydroxychloroquine from the earliest stages of the disease, when patients were at home, and resulted in the hospitalization of very few cases in acute conditions. A treatment that, according to preliminary data collected and systematized by 5 different ASLs on 1,039 patients, is working throughout Italy.
Do I get a whiff of not invented here, multiplied by toxic political polarisation, WRT the USA? Smells like that. KFkairosfocus_{April 28, 2020
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Ortho, strawman caricature. Bleach or the like show separate indications that they are so toxic that they are effectively useless inside the body at typical concentrations such as 3 - 5%; though 10:1 diluted solutions are used externally and a rather diluted solution is routinely used to make water safe for drinking; which is an ingestion of a known poison that we routinely do without a moment's hesitation. By utter contrast, HCQ, Azithromycin and Zn supplements have all been routinely used, with manageable toxicity. For that matter, let's go to betadine, which IIRC blends Iodine and H2O2, and is used with wounds, so we now look at a halogen and a peroxide that can be used in a limited way on the body. Here's the kicker, there is in fact a relatively unusual treatment that infuses a small amount of H2O2 INTERNALLY. Next, to correct the agit prop smear being trumpeted far and wide by the corrupt media [who would all have had the AP press release], there is a treatment that Cedars Sinai of LA has been working on for 3+ years that inserts UV sources and flashes the trachea to kill microbes. The attempt to censor this at YouTube further shows the utter dishonesty of such media, with lives on the line. A disregard that fits right in with 40+ years of enabling the worst, ongoing holocaust in history, the slaughter of our living posterity in the womb of at least 800+ millions and growing at up to another million per week. Which then could easily lead to pointed questions as to what devious political advantage is being sought by trumpeting a case of far less deaths than one week of abortions, and using the alleged concern to save lives to push for keeping going an economy lockdown liable to trigger serious famines etc across the world. Do you see the sort of can of worms opened up by that sort of rhetoric? Do you really want to go there? Please, think again. KFkairosfocus_{April 28, 2020
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And the only reason it won’t end the pandemic is because people won’t follow it.
Anecdotal information - I have spoken to about 20 people about the results of zinc. Only one was interested. Just this afternoon I had a nice conversation with a neighbor who listened for a few minutes and quickly changed the subject to something else which we both then talked about. One good friend said he won't take anything because he does not like taking stuff. Understand that completely but the interesting thing is he wasn't interested in why it would work.jerry_{April 28, 2020
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As I say, I don’t think this is likely to be the panacea that ends the pandemic.
Right now there is no treatment for this disease in the US. So doing nothing is leading to thens of thousands of deaths in the US. Just under 60,000 as I write this. So are there things working besides nothing? Here is a report from a group of doctors about HCQ - Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS) It is dated Sunday. https://bit.ly/3bON2Pl It is a list of various studies and surveys done and most of the deaths they found are from the VA survey covered here last week. Here is anaecdotal information from Italy. It's in Italian but if you use Chrome and its translation feature, you can get the information in English. Has a lot of numbers. It is mostly positive about HCQ. https://bit.ly/2VKl6GD Zelenko will publish his results next week as someone who is an expert in this, publishing data, is working with him. His results are in the AAPS report above. I think the answer is that if the US had used HCQ from the start it would have saved a large percentage of those 60,000 lives if administered early and if zinc had been added, it would have saved more.jerry_{April 28, 2020
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