Geography Matters

_{Barry Arrington

April 27, 2020

Intelligent Design}

Share: Facebook; Twitter; LinkedIn; Flipboard; Print; Email

In response to my last post (The Data Are in: A Nationwide Lockdown Was Never Necessary) Bob O’H got red in the face, stamped his feet, and apparently insisted that a nationwide lockdown was necessary. Was it? Here is an analysis performed by a friend:

To put US COVID19 cases into perspective, it helps to separate the terrible outbreak in the five-state region of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts from the other 45 states. (Stats as of April 25.)

Total Population
NY-NJ-CT-RI-MA – 39.8 million
Rest of US – 288 million

COVID Cases – Total (per million people)
NY-NJ-CT-RI-MA – 490,675 (12,312)
Rest of US – 496,657 (1,722)

COVID Deaths – Total (per million people)
NY-NJ-CT-RI-MA – 33,262 (835)
Rest of US – 22,153 (77)

HT: Mark Hillman

Those who insist that regional differences make no difference are now in the “willfully obtuse” category.

Comments

Beef, chicken and pork could be as scarce as toilet paper soon because so many meat processing plants have been temporarily shut down amid the coronavirus pandemic, industry experts are warning. “The cause of the shortage is reduced production due to labor issues at the packing plants,” Smith said. “Some plants have closed for deep cleaning and will remain closed until the employee base has recovered from the virus. Others are implementing safety procedures which in effect slows processing speed at the plants.” The experts weighed-in as Tyson Foods took out full-page ads Sunday in The Washington Post, The New York Times and The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette warning that the “food supply is breaking.”rhampton7_{April 27, 2020
April
04
Apr
27
27
2020
02:25 PM
2
02
25
PM
PDT}

Meat processors throughout the US, especially in the red states, have been hit very hard by the virus even with social distancing. It’s not simply urban vs ruralrhampton7_{April 27, 2020
April
04
Apr
27
27
2020
02:23 PM
2
02
23
PM
PDT}

Vivid, maybe they are deferring to the medical experts advising officials? I think we now face a dismal, wartime tradeoff, of lives vs lives, now vs later. This is a hard day, to come to that. KFkairosfocus_{April 27, 2020
April
04
Apr
27
27
2020
02:16 PM
2
02
16
PM
PDT}

I posted that a nationwide lockdown was never necessary. You poo-pooed the evidence from Sweden.
No, I poo-pooed the comparison of Sweden to US states. You really need to learn how to read, I'd guess it's a helpful skill for a lawyer.Bob O'H_{April 27, 2020
April
04
Apr
27
27
2020
02:14 PM
2
02
14
PM
PDT}

Ortho, it seems that local governments need to be involved in lockdown vs opening up decisions and the tradeoff between lives lost through the epidemic and lives lost through impacts of triggered recession. That sort of calculus is why Economics has been called the dismal science. I remember my dad [a distinguished policy economist], with pain in his eyes, warning me from taking up that discipline. Looks like we may not be interested in dismal tradeoffs but dismal tradeoffs are interested in us. I think the only reasonable way forward is through reasonably effective treatments and social distancing measures that reduce rate of transmission. I suspect face masks are about to become fashion items, I am already seeing decorated ones. I strongly suggest, reusable masks with filter pockets for light duty use. And, alcohol is your friend. Everclear 190 or other neutral grain spirit, as a last resort. I guess, J Wray & Nephew Overproof etc at 63% are in-range, but those wimpy numbers sound a bit too weak for my taste. I laid up some 91% isopropyl, and I am using it to flush my industrial mask. KFkairosfocus_{April 27, 2020
April
04
Apr
27
27
2020
02:13 PM
2
02
13
PM
PDT}

What disturbs me most is that I hear from people something like this” Has the government given us the ok to go to the park, shoot hoops, see my kids” as if it’s the government’s right to just abrogate the constitution. As the governor of NJ was asked if before he put in the lockdown did he think about the bill of rights and he said “Never crossed my mind” Think about that I almost fell off the couch! Should the government protect others from my behavior if my behavior can cause harm to innocent people? Yes they should, but if I want to do something that will not harm others then the government should stay out of my affairs. I have sheltered in place this last month and am open to any restrictions my state authorities recommend but that is only because I voluntarily choose to do so. It is alarming how quickly people have just given up their liberty and constitutional rights without being aware that they have done so. Vividvividbleau_{April 27, 2020
April
04
Apr
27
27
2020
01:49 PM
1
01
49
PM
PDT}

Just for interest sake, who is Kevin?Ed George_{April 27, 2020
April
04
Apr
27
27
2020
01:33 PM
1
01
33
PM
PDT}

"Jim Thibodeau (aka Kevin) is no longer with us." I feel confident in marking this as Covid-related. ;) Andrewasauber_{April 27, 2020
April
04
Apr
27
27
2020
01:22 PM
1
01
22
PM
PDT}

If the point is that states are highly heterogeneous on their risk of covid19 outbreak (I agree) then it stands to reason that simply correlating deaths per million and time-to-lockdown without accounting for those differences can't isolate the effect of lockdown alone. The linked study seems very odd, as they use a 21 day window with most states starting there lockdown inside that window. It typically takes > 2 weeks to go from infection to death, do the majority of analysed deaths are the result of infections that occurred before lockdown. One of the things we try to teat trainees is that simply getting a p-value or statistic out of a stats package (or even excel) doesn't make an analysis rigourous. So, it's quite possible to think geography matters and the benifits (or optimal timing) of a lockdown might differ between regions but also think this analysis is useless in deciding that.orthomyxo_{April 27, 2020
April
04
Apr
27
27
2020
01:12 PM
1
01
12
PM
PDT}

Jim Thibodeau (aka Kevin) is no longer with us. We try to give commenters latitude, but there is a limit to the amount of bigotry and hate we will allow be be spewed into our combox. Jim passed it some time ago.Barry Arrington_{April 27, 2020
April
04
Apr
27
27
2020
12:02 PM
12
12
02
PM
PDT}

Yeah, I keep thinking they’re going to edit that one because the original is so obviously anti-Semitic. Not surprising for a 20th century evangelical fundyJim Thibodeau_{April 27, 2020
April
04
Apr
27
27
2020
11:29 AM
11
11
29
AM
PDT}

JT, "Big Daddy"? That's a classic.daveS_{April 27, 2020
April
04
Apr
27
27
2020
09:08 AM
9
09
08
AM
PDT}

This reminds me of that Jack Chick tract, where the good Anglo-Saxon looking Christian student destroys the evil Darwinist Jew professor. it's easy to win an argument when you get to write both sides of the debate. But it doesn't actually accomplish anything. Maybe it makes the speaker feel smart, but that's about it.Jim Thibodeau_{April 27, 2020
April
04
Apr
27
27
2020
09:03 AM
9
09
03
AM
PDT}

he supports his tribe in the face of the statistical evidence. God help us.
Couple things, tribalism has always been the strongest organizing concept in human history. It is just what constitutes a tribe these days has changed. People should read about Ibn Khaldun and his concept of asabiyya which describes social cohesion as one of the strongest forces in human history. Two comments I made from another thread.
Second and may be the most tragic, is the irresponsible behavior of many to make this a political situation while people die from the virus and from the economic shutdown. There is a third and possibly equally tragic reaction, that people don’t seem to care that tens of thousands of people have lost their lives unnecessarily to the political squabbling and to the economic hardship. I have seen this on both sides of the political spectrum. I said to one of my conservative friends that he didn’t seem to care about the hardships out there but would respond more seriously when his investments prove worthless. He’s worth a couple million dollars and it could all vanish as the economy deflates more and more. Some of us who are comfortable believe they are immune to the economic outcomes..
We are seeing asabiyya play out in the extreme in this debate. Will it continue past financial ruin which even the liberals will face as their source of income disappears.jerry_{April 27, 2020
April
04
Apr
27
27
2020
08:22 AM
8
08
22
AM
PDT}

Sev, No one is saying lockdowns are not appropriate under certain circumstances. New York and New Jersey almost certainly needed to lockdown. As Jerry explains in the next comment, rural New Hampshire almost certainly did not. You are a statist. And we all know that statists have a hard time making fine distinctions when they are hammering down on people with government power. So my comment is really for people who understand that government power should be exercised with nuance, not an iron fist. And that appears to exclude you.Barry Arrington_{April 27, 2020
April
04
Apr
27
27
2020
08:19 AM
8
08
19
AM
PDT}

I live in New Hampshire which is small but located next to your notorious 5. Most of the cases are in the two larger counties near Massachusetts. Their infection rates are near triple the rest of the state which is fairly rural in the northern part of the state. Total deaths in NH are 60 as of this morning and an article from a few days ago said 60% were in nursing homes. Deaths per million is 46, which is lower than your rest of US average. Women next door cannot get operation for torn ligaments in her knee. The reason being the hospitals have essentially been closed to non C19 cases even though there are not many in state. They do not want to take chance of any non emergency patient catching the virus while there for the procedure and recovery. Meanwhile hospitals in the state like the rest of the US are laying off medical personnel because they have no business and cannot afford to pay them.jerry_{April 27, 2020
April
04
Apr
27
27
2020
07:57 AM
7
07
57
AM
PDT}

Lockdowns don't work?
Coronavirus: New Zealand claims no community cases as lockdown eases

New Zealand says it has stopped community transmission of Covid-19, effectively eliminating the virus. With new cases in single figures for several days - one on Sunday - Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said the virus was "currently" eliminated.
[…]
The news comes hours before New Zealand is set to move out of its toughest level of social restrictions
[…]
How did New Zealand respond to the virus? The country brought in some of the toughest restrictions in the world on travel and activity early on in the pandemic, when it only had a few dozen cases. It closed its borders, started enforcing quarantine of all arrivals in the country, brought in a stringent lockdown and mounted an extensive testing and contact tracing operation. Beaches, waterfronts and playgrounds were shut on 26 March, as were offices and schools. Bars and restaurants were also closed, including for takeaway and delivery.
Seversky_{April 27, 2020
April
04
Apr
27
27
2020
07:33 AM
7
07
33
AM
PDT}

Andrew, you've hit upon something there. That an expert in statistics would advance his seat-of-the-pants intuitions as a challenge to rigorous statistical testing speaks volumes. Bob's conclusions are driven by tribalism. And he supports his tribe in the face of the statistical evidence. God help us.Barry Arrington_{April 27, 2020
April
04
Apr
27
27
2020
07:32 AM
7
07
32
AM
PDT}

I think getting Bob O'H to admit that *anything* his tribe favors is unnecessary, would be the holy grail of UD comments. Andrewasauber_{April 27, 2020
April
04
Apr
27
27
2020
07:20 AM
7
07
20
AM
PDT}

Bob, I posted that a nationwide lockdown was never necessary. You poo-pooed the evidence from Sweden. You insisted that the statistical analysis supporting my post was "nonsense." The readers will decide whether to believe you or their own eyes.Barry Arrington_{April 27, 2020
April
04
Apr
27
27
2020
07:17 AM
7
07
17
AM
PDT}

Bob O’H got red in the face, stamped his feet, and apparently insisted that a nationwide lockdown was necessary.
Barry, this is utterly false. Did you do that deliberately, or did you just not understand what I had written?Bob O'H_{April 27, 2020
April
04
Apr
27
27
2020
07:02 AM
7
07
02
AM
PDT}

Prev 1 … 3 4 5

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Leave a Reply