Uncommon Descent Serving The Intelligent Design Community

A world-famous chemist tells the truth: there’s no scientist alive today who understands macroevolution

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Professor James M. Tour is one of the ten most cited chemists in the world. He is famous for his work on nanocars (pictured above, courtesy of Wikipedia), nanoelectronics, graphene nanostructures, carbon nanovectors in medicine, and green carbon research for enhanced oil recovery and environmentally friendly oil and gas extraction. He is currently a Professor of Chemistry, Professor of Computer Science, and Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Materials Science at Rice University. He has authored or co-authored 489 scientific publications and his name is on 36 patents. Although he does not regard himself as an Intelligent Design theorist, Professor Tour, along with over 700 other scientists, took the courageous step back in 2001 of signing the Discovery Institute’s “A Scientific Dissent from Darwinism”, which read: “We are skeptical of claims for the ability of random mutation and natural selection to account for the complexity of life. Careful examination of the evidence for Darwinian theory should be encouraged.”

On Professor Tour’s Website, there’s a very revealing article on evolution and creation, in which Tour bluntly states that he does not understand how macroevolution could have happened, from a chemical standpoint (all bold emphases below are mine – VJT):

Although most scientists leave few stones unturned in their quest to discern mechanisms before wholeheartedly accepting them, when it comes to the often gross extrapolations between observations and conclusions on macroevolution, scientists, it seems to me, permit unhealthy leeway. When hearing such extrapolations in the academy, when will we cry out, “The emperor has no clothes!”?

…I simply do not understand, chemically, how macroevolution could have happened. Hence, am I not free to join the ranks of the skeptical and to sign such a statement without reprisals from those that disagree with me? … Does anyone understand the chemical details behind macroevolution? If so, I would like to sit with that person and be taught, so I invite them to meet with me.

In a more recent talk, entitled, Nanotech and Jesus Christ, given on 1 November 2012 at Georgia Tech, Professor Tour went further, and declared that no scientist that he has spoken to understands macroevolution – and that includes Nobel Prize winners! Here’s what he said when a student in the audience asked him about evolution:

I will tell you as a scientist and a synthetic chemist: if anybody should be able to understand evolution, it is me, because I make molecules for a living, and I don’t just buy a kit, and mix this and mix this, and get that. I mean, ab initio, I make molecules. I understand how hard it is to make molecules. I understand that if I take Nature’s tool kit, it could be much easier, because all the tools are already there, and I just mix it in the proportions, and I do it under these conditions, but ab initio is very, very hard.

I don’t understand evolution, and I will confess that to you. Is that OK, for me to say, “I don’t understand this”? Is that all right? I know that there’s a lot of people out there that don’t understand anything about organic synthesis, but they understand evolution. I understand a lot about making molecules; I don’t understand evolution. And you would just say that, wow, I must be really unusual.

Let me tell you what goes on in the back rooms of science – with National Academy members, with Nobel Prize winners. I have sat with them, and when I get them alone, not in public – because it’s a scary thing, if you say what I just said – I say, “Do you understand all of this, where all of this came from, and how this happens?” Every time that I have sat with people who are synthetic chemists, who understand this, they go “Uh-uh. Nope.” These people are just so far off, on how to believe this stuff came together. I’ve sat with National Academy members, with Nobel Prize winners. Sometimes I will say, “Do you understand this?”And if they’re afraid to say “Yes,” they say nothing. They just stare at me, because they can’t sincerely do it.

I was once brought in by the Dean of the Department, many years ago, and he was a chemist. He was kind of concerned about some things. I said, “Let me ask you something. You’re a chemist. Do you understand this? How do you get DNA without a cell membrane? And how do you get a cell membrane without a DNA? And how does all this come together from this piece of jelly?” We have no idea, we have no idea. I said, “Isn’t it interesting that you, the Dean of science, and I, the chemistry professor, can talk about this quietly in your office, but we can’t go out there and talk about this?”

If you understand evolution, I am fine with that. I’m not going to try to change you – not at all. In fact, I wish I had the understanding that you have.

But about seven or eight years ago I posted on my Web site that I don’t understand. And I said, “I will buy lunch for anyone that will sit with me and explain to me evolution, and I won’t argue with you until I don’t understand something – I will ask you to clarify. But you can’t wave by and say, “This enzyme does that.” You’ve got to get down in the details of where molecules are built, for me. Nobody has come forward.

The Atheist Society contacted me. They said that they will buy the lunch, and they challenged the Atheist Society, “Go down to Houston and have lunch with this guy, and talk to him.” Nobody has come! Now remember, because I’m just going to ask, when I stop understanding what you’re talking about, I will ask. So I sincerely want to know. I would like to believe it. But I just can’t.

Now, I understand microevolution, I really do. We do this all the time in the lab. I understand this. But when you have speciation changes, when you have organs changing, when you have to have concerted lines of evolution, all happening in the same place and time – not just one line – concerted lines, all at the same place, all in the same environment … this is very hard to fathom.

I was in Israel not too long ago, talking with a bio-engineer, and [he was] describing to me the ear, and he was studying the different changes in the modulus of the ear, and I said, “How does this come about?” And he says, “Oh, Jim, you know, we all believe in evolution, but we have no idea how it happened.” Now there’s a good Jewish professor for you. I mean, that’s what it is. So that’s where I am. Have I answered the question? (52:00 to 56:44)

Professor Tour’s online talk is absolutely fascinating as well as being deeply moving on a personal level, and I would strongly urge readers to listen to his talk in its entirety – including the questions after the talk. You won’t regret it, I promise you. One interesting little gem of information which I’ll reveal is that it was Professor Tour who was largely instrumental in getting Nobel Laureate Richard Smalley, winner of the 1996 Nobel Prize in Chemistry, to reject Darwinian evolution and accept Old Earth creationism, shortly before he died in 2005. It was Tour who persuaded Smalley to delve into the question of origins. After reading the books “Origins of Life” and “Who Was Adam?”, written by Dr. Hugh Ross (an astrophysicist) and Dr. Fazale Rana (a biochemist).. Dr. Smalley explained his change of heart as follows:

Evolution has just been dealt its death blow. After reading “Origins of Life”, with my background in chemistry and physics, it is clear evolution could not have occurred. The new book, “Who Was Adam?”, is the silver bullet that puts the evolutionary model to death.

Strong words indeed, for a Nobel scientist. Readers can find out more about Professor Richard Smalley’s change of views here.

Why should we believe macroevolution, if nobody understands it?

Now that Professor Tour has informed the world that even Nobel Prize-winning scientists privately admit that they don’t understand macroevolution, a layperson is surely entitled to ask: “Well, if even they don’t understand it, then why should we believe it? How can we possibly be obliged to believe in a theory which nobody understands?”

That’s a good question. And it’s no use for Darwinists to trot out the standard “party line” that “even if we don’t yet understand how it happened, we still have enough evidence to infer that it happened.” At the very most, all that the current scientific evidence could establish is the common descent of living organisms. But that’s not macroevolution. Macroevolution requires more than a common ancestry for living organisms: it requires a natural mechanism which can generate the diversity of life-forms we see on Earth today from a common stock, without the need for any direction by an Intelligent Agent. But the mechanism is precisely what we don’t have evidence for. So the question remains: why should we believe in macroevolution?

The decline of academic freedom

Given the massive uncertainty about the “how” of macroevolution among scientists working in the field, you might think that a wide variety of views would be tolerated in the scientific arena – including the view that there is no such process as macroevolution. However, you would be sadly mistaken. As Professor Tour notes in his online article on evolution and creation, an alarming academic trend has emerged in recent years: a growing intolerance of dissent from Darwinism. This trend is so pronounced that Professor Tour now advises his students not to voice their doubts about Darwinism in public, if they want a successful career:

In the last few years I have seen a saddening progression at several institutions. I have witnessed unfair treatment upon scientists that do not accept macroevolutionary arguments and for their having signed the above-referenced statement regarding the examination of Darwinism. (I will comment no further regarding the specifics of the actions taken upon the skeptics; I love and honor my colleagues too much for that.) I never thought that science would have evolved like this. I deeply value the academy; teaching, professing and research in the university are my privileges and joys…

But my recent advice to my graduate students has been direct and revealing: If you disagree with Darwinian Theory, keep it to yourselves if you value your careers, unless, of course, you’re one of those champions for proclamation; I know that that fire exists in some, so be ready for lead-ridden limbs. But if the scientific community has taken these shots at senior faculty, it will not be comfortable for the young non-conformist. When the power-holders permit no contrary discussion, can a vibrant academy be maintained? Is there a University (unity in diversity)? For the United States, I pray that the scientific community and the National Academy in particular will investigate the disenfranchisement that is manifest upon some of their own, and thereby address the inequity.

It remains to be seen if other countries will allow their young scientists to think freely about the origin of life, and of the various species of organisms that we find on Earth today. What I will say, though, is that countries which restrict academic freedom will eventually be overtaken by countries which allow it to prosper. There is still time for America and Europe to throw off the dead hand of Darwinism in academic circles, and let their young people breathe the unaccustomed air of free speech once again.

(UPDATE: Here’s a link to my follow-up post, Macroevolution, microevolution and chemistry: the devil is in the details. It amply refutes the simplistic charge, made by some skeptics, that Professor Tour was conflating macroevolution with the question of the origin of life.)

UD Editors:  This post has received a great deal of attention lately, so we are moving it back to the front page.

Comments
PS: Let me adjust wiki and CW to form a synthesis that gives a better focus to my concerns:
Microevolution: a term used to describe genetic variation, the empirically observed phenomenon in which existing potential variations within the gene pool of a population of organisms and/or those formed through mutations shift the proportions of varieties among members of that population over a relatively short series of generations, or even within a single generation. Macroevolution: the theory/inference that: 1 --> biological population changes take (and have taken) place (typically via cumulative mutations and culling by differential reproductive success -- aka natural selection -- held to be leading to Darwin's "descent with modification") across deep time; 2 --> on a large enough scale to produce entirely new structural features and organs, resulting in entirely new species, genera, families, orders, classes, and phyla within the biological world, 3 --> by incrementally and cumulatively generating the requisite (new) complex genetic information manifested in a branching tree of life pattern inferred from the fossil record, and held to be reflected in homologies at gross anatomy and gene/molecular levels.
I think this is less subtly loaded than the sort of thing we find at Wiki, captures the range of phenomena being addressed [notice, from species to phyla], and highlights that one is observed the other largely inferred.kairosfocus
March 9, 2014
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F/N: News highlights an exchange at Reddit in which one of the participants points to the Talk Origins discussion of "macroevolution" here. Also note that notorious site's discussion of microevo here, which begins:
>>Microevolution and macroevolution are different things, but they involve mostly the same processes. Microevolution is defined as the change of allele frequencies (that is, genetic variation due to processes such as selection, mutation, genetic drift, or even migration) within a population. >>
Of course TO tries the same linear extrapolation stunt as Wiki but it is significant that it admits the reality and distinction of macro and micro evo. Where micro evo is a case of being too vague in many respects, but it does cover an empirical phenomenon. Macro is an extrapolation that too often is loaded with questionable assumptions. Creation Wiki's rebuttal to TO raises some relvant issues:
Evolutionists seem rather obstinate in defining evolution as any change in 'gene frequencies' among a population. If evolution is defined so broadly then creationists might as well be known as theistic evolutionists. Macroevolution and microevolution should be put into their respective categories. Microevolution in itself isn't sufficient to establish that macroevolution has occurred because every single observation that is made, is in accord with the created kinds. Microevolution: the name used by many evolutionists to describe genetic variation, the empirically observed phenomenon in which exisiting potential variations within the gene pool of a population of organisms are manifested or suppressed among members of that population over a series of generations. Often simplistically (and erroneously) invoked as “proof” of “macro evolution” Macroevolution: the theory/belief that biological population changes take (and have taken) place (typically via mutations and natural selection) on a large enough scale to produce entirely new structural features and organs, resulting in entirely new species, genera, families, orders, classes, and phyla within the biological world, by generating the requisite (new) genetic information. Many evolutionists have used “macro-evolution” and “Neo-Darwinism” as synonymous for the past 150 years.
I think that expansion is much less loaded, and it is straightforward about the points at debate. The focal level for discussion is body plan origination by claimed blind watchmaker macroevo, which takes us beyond about the level of the family in the taxonomy hierarchy. (I suspect that about the level between a dog and a cat is about right in many cases for the Creationist "kind" too.) Dr Tour is right to be concerned, and to tie the tree of claimed branching to the roots in OOL, and to raise questions about the whole. KFkairosfocus
March 9, 2014
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Q: beauty, that's another challenge altogether! How do you measure style? Symmetry is measurable, novelty within symmetry that creates focal points is measurable, but style? Maybe, we can fingerprint a pattern and then look at closeness in some form of Hamming distance measure, but style is a real hard one. KF PS: For our purposes, understanding the challenge posed by islands of function in vast config spaces to search, then the search for search in power sets of the config spaces, and onwards, a metric of config spaces and of functional specificity is enough. That is why, working in answer to Patrick May/Mathgrrl*, with VJT and Paul Giem, I modded Dembski's 2005 metric by doing a log reduction and then spotting the threshold complexity metric. To capture specificity, I used a dummy variable S set to 0 as default, 1 when we have objective evidence of such specificity [generally based on observation] yielding: Chi_500 = I*S - 500, bits beyond the 50-bit solar system threshold. I is the info metric which can be estimated in various ways, in light of I = - log p, p a probability for a config, but also on things like counting bit holding devices or arrays, or reducing more complex storage elements to bit holding capacity, or with codes, we can use metrics based on symbol frequencies . . . e is about 1/8 of English text . . . and we can in every case reduce a complex spatially arranged entity into a 3-d representation as a collection of strings, turned into one grand string [as AutoCAD etc do] and so analysis on strings is WLOG. The net effect is, DNA is designed, cells are designed, body plans are designed, all are well beyond the threshold where blind watchmaker mechanisms are not credible as causes. The objectors of course are dismissive.kairosfocus
March 9, 2014
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KF,
Q: back to the drawing board is indeed a lesson for us all. KF
Pressing on . . . According to industrial design luminaries, the difference between a well-designed object and a poorly designed one is intuitively obvious to people at an unconscious level. Thus, people react to a great design as "cool" or "beautiful" without being able to quantify their reaction. Perhaps that's why we find nature cool or beautiful. My point is that the bits of information (as currently defined) attributed to a "klunky" design versus a "cool" design might be the same, but shouldn't be. -QQuerius
March 9, 2014
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jw777, Great observations! My view of science is the development of a series models that successively approximate observed behavior with increasing precision and synergy. Our approximations are asymptotic to reality, but as models, they can never actually be reality. The observed chaotic qualities (referring to Chaos theory as pioneered by Edward Lorenz) and quantum uncertainties at the edges of counteracting forces, prevent mechanistic determinism from a human perspective, but can at least theoretically provide foreknowledge in the sense that the same coordinates on a Mandelbrot set always produce the same results, but are impossible to duplicate under human control since the coordinates will be irrational numbers. I agree that true randomness doesn't exist. http://fractalfoundation.org/resources/what-is-chaos-theory/ Divine Design incorporated the true laws of nature, not our models, so our perceptions of design in nature will always be incomplete at some level. Applicability to biologic systems and pathologies has been considered by researchers. For an example, Google a paper titled Assessment of Chaos in a Hemodynamic Model of Sickle Cell Disease in the Microcirculation byAkwasi Asare Apori (2001). It tempting to speculate that these thoughts might eventually be extrapolated to incorporate Gödel's incompleteness theorems. -QQuerius
March 8, 2014
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Q: back to the drawing board is indeed a lesson for us all. KFkairosfocus
March 8, 2014
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JG, the design inference on reliable empirical signs such as FSCO/I in whatever guise, is accessible as a simple induction or at more formal level as an abductive inference to best current explanation. It is falsifiable by showing a case where FSCO/I on our observation, at or beyond the 500 - 1,000 bit threshold, comes about by blind chance and/or mechanical necessity; however we may construe chance as an extension of tossed dice or coins, or as something analogous to RA decay or sky noise. Mechanical necessity is by analogy of heavy unsupported objects initially falling at 9.8 N/kg near Earth's surface, then tending to a terminal velocity shaped by air resistance and the characteristics of the object that interact with the air like that. Many many tests have been done, all failed to falsify. We live in a world with billions of directly observed cases in point all underscoring the induction from FSCO/I to design as most credible cause. This is backed up by needle in haystack sampling space analysis that shows why that is overwhelmingly likely to hold. All we then need to point out is that cell based life and major body plans are cases in point. A fairly similar case can be pointed out regarding the fine tuning of the physics of the observable cosmos that sets up a world that facilitates C-chemistry, aqueous medium, cell based life. KFkairosfocus
March 8, 2014
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VJT, I am thinking that there is now a settling down to steady need for reference in a much wider circle. As such I am suggesting a post appendix tot he OP above, on where to go for resource materials on ID and related topics -- online and offline. You will note too that in-thread I have pointed out Wiki's article on Micro evo which puts to rest a canard that tries to pretend that such a term does not exist and in trying to argue that "Creationists" misuse, the errors made reveal much inadvertently. The talking point that macro is just accumulated micro needs to be definitively put to pasture, as a context for Dr Tour's point. Your article in follow up here will be important and should be first on the appendix, and your article on a case study the eye should be second, third being your recent piece on Myers regarding abiogenesis copouts, with the UD weak argument corrective a close follow on (along with the glossary and the definition of ID) . . . all from the resources tab top of our pages, as well as maybe IDEA's wider FAQ, here. Right after, I would put up the NWE article on intelligent design. Doubtless, there are others out there that you would want. KFkairosfocus
March 8, 2014
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A process which maximizes uncertainty helps the design inference.
One could likewise argue that a process which minimizes uncertainty helps the design inference. So what “the design inference” is left with as potential falsification is a process which neither maximizes uncertainty nor minimizes uncertainty.
'Helping' isn't confirmation and doesn't guarantee confirmation. Similarly, 'not helping' isn't falsification and doesn't guarantee falsification.JGuy
March 8, 2014
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I am intrigued by the design inference, as I have increasingly noticed that an obligatory stance against "mind" necessarily concludes with "random". As I stated, I do not believe in random. And my apprehension about random is furthered when one considers how random-of-the-gaps strangely parallels Greek polytheism, wherein all of the hierarchy of our illusorily personified Nature is embodied by various totems and owing ultimately to the primordial god Chaos. Random-of-the-gaps strikes me not as a scientific inference, but the type of notion a Screwtape, if ever he existed, might plant in men's minds when humility cannot be stomached. Nonetheless, I still feel like putting a number on it is an appeasement. Either we will discover how our physical laws necessitate the construction of life or not, which of course doesn't explain why they should be that way. As it stands, macroevolution and spontaneous generation do not presently occur; and a reasonable man can either position himself agnostic or confidently declare they never have. A less reasonable man, who might require their existence for intellectual fulfillment, should at the very least admit that we don't know how they occurred. Put more simply, why are electrons obligated to create human brains? If they aren't obligated, why do they choose to? And if they don't choose, and they aren't obligated, the explanation is not grounded in anything meaningful. Randomness, for which my faulty material "mind" (cation exchange in neuronal pathways) has created an illusion of pattern? That is not scientific inquiry; it's just more random-of-the-gaps. It seems to me the dividing line between life and non-life is, at the very least, life AIMS to perpetuate itself through some means (longevity, survival, replication, progeny, etc.). But we can see the problem almost immediately. Non-life would not create life. You see, reductionism provides no compelling notion with regard to the big questions in biology. Biology is a gestalt; and we keep trying to come to grips with it by climbing down into gluons and bosons. It cannot be done. But returning, for a moment, to the notion of gaps. Acquiring Knowledge is like cutting the head off the Hydra. Every acquisition is done only for temporary relief and a doubly difficult battle afterwards. The very fact that some of our best minds are retreating into imaginary universes is all the proof one needs that perpetual digging might not help humans come to grips with reality.jw777
March 8, 2014
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A process which maximizes uncertainty helps the design inference.
One could likewise argue that a process which minimizes uncertainty helps the design inference. So what "the design inference" is left with as potential falsification is a process which neither maximizes uncertainty nor minimizes uncertainty.Mung
March 8, 2014
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Eric:
Mung, great quote.
Thanks, but I cannot take credit. It was brought to my attention in an email from a compatriot. What better way to respond to someone who directs us to the holy scriptures of talk origins as the be all and end all of debate on macro-evolution than quoting it back to them?Mung
March 8, 2014
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F/N: Let me again cross-post, on micro vs macro evo: __________ >> wiki struggles mightily to paper over the problems. Article, microevolution:
Microevolution is the changes in allele frequencies that occur over time within a population.[1] This change is due to four different processes: mutation, selection (natural and artificial), gene flow, and genetic drift. Population genetics is the branch of biology that provides the mathematical structure for the study of the process of microevolution. Ecological genetics concerns itself with observing microevolution in the wild. Typically, observable instances of evolution are examples of microevolution; for example, bacterial strains that have antibiotic resistance. Microevolution over time may lead to speciation or the appearance of novel structure, sometimes classified as macroevolution.[2] Contrary to claims by creationists however, macro and microevolution describe fundamentally identical processes on different time scales.[2][3] . . . . Microevolution can be contrasted with macroevolution, which is the occurrence of large-scale changes in gene frequencies in a population over a geological time period (i.e. consisting of extended microevolution). The difference is largely one of approach. Microevolution is reductionist, but macroevolution is holistic. Each approach offers different insights into the evolution process. Macroevolution can be seen as the sum of long periods of microevolution, and thus the two are qualitatively identical while being quantitatively different.
Let’s draw out a few observations, in steps: 1 –> Wiki is forced to acknowledge the existence and use of the terms as legitimate terms. So much for the, it’s only those dumb or dishonest Creationists . . . 2 –> It identifies that micro evo describes pop changes regarding allelle frequencies, where allele means: “one of a number of alternative forms of the same gene or same genetic locus.[1][2] It is the alternative form of a gene for a character producing different effects. Sometimes, different alleles can result in different observable phenotypic traits, such as different pigmentation. However, many genetic variations result in little or no observable variation.” 3 –> So, if in a pop of moths, we move from mostly mottled white to mostly mottled black, that is “evolution.” (Never mind the varieties were there all along and never mind later reversion to the original dominance once cleanup happened.) 4 –> The observed cases of “evolution” are overwhelmingly micro. (That is already a significant point, macro is inferred or assumed as cumulation of micro, not generally directly observed.) 5 –> Cases of micro seem to take up the usual trumpeted cases of observation, so it is in the interests of adherents to extrapolate. 6 –> Has anyone actually seen the most relevant form of macro, formation of body plans? Nope. 7 –> So, then, how do we know macro is simply mostly linear accumulation across the tree of life? We don’t, it is a built in assumption. 8 –> Also, is it generally so that one can modify a complex functional object incrementally into something quite disparate, preserving advantageous function every step of the way . . . no long range foresight allowed? Not generally, this is an extremely constraining assumption. 9 –> So the extrapolation thesis, once we move beyond the often debatable species etc level . . . think Red Deer and American Elk turning out to be interfertile in New Zealand, or the interfertility discovered across Galapagos species in the ’80s, etc . . . to creating major novel body plan features such as flight with wings [Wallace, co-founder of Evolutionary theory cited this case in his book arguing intelligent evolution], muscles, feathers and control systems, or vision, or the like.including the human verbal language and reasoning capacity. 10 –> We are back to the challenge to actually empirically ground the tree of life icon. 11 –> And we have only touched on how even macro evo is compatible with a design view, and how the challenge to empirically show blind watchmaker macro evo at body plan level is unmet>> _________ This should serve as a bottomline for the talking point that tries to pretend that micro vs macro evo is not a real matter. KFkairosfocus
March 8, 2014
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Regarding the representation of information in a design, I'd like to point out that the information embodies in a good design far exceeds the mathematics of it's specification. For example, in my spare time, I like to design and build things around the house as well as other personal projects. For example, the final design of an arbor or a swoopy walkway includes dozens of rejected designs, many design parameters, modifications, design prioritizations, (for things that I have manufactured) issues for manufacturability (including the price and availability of parts, and required tolerances) and maintenance, and so on. The bits of information in the final design don't account for the *majority* of these other, vital factors. -QQuerius
March 8, 2014
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JW777: Important points. I have not tried to assess a probability, I have taken a much more modest target. We know that the genome expresses information, and we can also see that the complex functional organisation of the living cell also expresses information. We cannot directly estimate the latter, but the former is a definite component and it is enough for our purposes. The storage capacity used in the genome is easily assessed on the known 4 states per character, which can be modified in light of variations form flat random distribution as are inevitable in any practical comms system. However, it turns out that the 2 bits each is good enough for initial purposes, as we are going to overwhelm. A minimal first cell will be in the 100 - 1,000 kbits range, and it can be seen why a body plan would be 10 - 100+ mn bits. We are going to work with 500 bits as a threshold, orders of magnitude below such complexity. We are not going to estimate a probablility but illustrate a basic sampling needle in haystack blind search phenomenon that seems to be given short shrift by many who do or should know better. (For instance, it is what lies underneath traditional hypothesis testing that looks on likelihood of finding oneself in a far skirt zone of a distribution. When all the hootin and hollerin is done, the point is still valid.) Take the 10^57 atoms of our solar system, and give each a tray of 500 fair coins. Toss same every 10^-14 s, about as fast as ionic reactions go and yes I know organic ones are usually much slower. Do the tossing for 10^17 s. Take the ratio of sample to the config space of possibilities for 500 bits, 3.27 * 10^150. The comparison I used to make this vivid is to make the latter equivalent to a 1-gram straw then compare the latter as a haystack of straws of that size. That is where the 1,000 LY on the side cubical haystack comes from. That's fatter than our Galaxy's central bulge. Now, blindly sample one straw form the haystack, first superposing the haystack on our galactic neighbourhood. With practical certainty, we will pick up the overwhelming bulk, straw, and not anything else. Blind chance and/or mechanical necessity is not a credible means of finding isolated islands of function in such a config space, for the obvious reasons of the needle in haystack search challenge. Go up to 1,000 bits and let our search now be across the 10^80 atoms of our observed cosmos for the same interval. In this case, the haystack will be trillions of times larger than the observed cosmos. You could have millions of universes of similar size in it, and you predictably would only pick a straw. And this is an overwhelmingly simpler search challenge than the one just highlighted for the genome. For instance, the space of possible configs for 100k bits is 9.99*10^30,102. That is a lot of pages of zeros after the 999. The size of the haystack for that is beyond belief. In short, blind chance and mechanical necessity cannot credibly find isolated zoned in config spaces of relevant scale, where we know these zones are isolated as the need for multiple well matched properly organised and coupled parts to achieve function will sharply confine possibilities. That is why we can so easily tell real English text from the typical product of random typing. So far random text exercises have got to 24 ASCII characters, what we are looking at requires 73 or so for 500 bits, 143 or so for 1,000. That length of code is trivial for any serious program that is going to do a serious job. As a matter of fact 100 - 1,000 kbits is really tight code for what a cell does. You may see that this is easily accessible to one with modest background and has in fact been repeatedly pointed out to the circle of objectors we are dealing with. They refuse to admit the relevance. But by setting up a toy needle in haystack example we have shown that the atomic resources in our solar system cannot support the sort of body plan origin being discussed under any reasonable chance variation hyp, as any and all of them would be dominated by the simplicity of the task we have looked at. For OOL, the 1,000 bit case shows the cosmos being overwhelmed. Too much haystack, too few needles, too little search effort possible. And if you want to say we have instead that life is written into the laws of physics, cosmology and chemistry, that is fine tuning on steroids, a design position. Where already the fine tuning to get to a cosmos with carbon, oxygen, Hydrogen, Nitrogen and associated things in water zone terrestrial planets orbiting stars in galactic habitable zones, as a platform for cell based life, is sufficient fine tuning that we have only one serious explanation, design. The multiverse proposals, in the end, are not really serious. So, the issue is not probability but search. Where if you want to say we lucked out on search you need to see that the search for a search across a config space is a selection from sub sets, leading to going to choosing searches from the power set of the already immense config space. For a set with c members, the power set, the set of sub sets has 2^c members. How big, for instance is 2^[3.27*10^150]? That is why under the relevant circumstances there is no free lunch, search for search then higher order searches will run you into challenges that will smoke your calculator. Blind chance variation and incremental changes as a result, can explain moving around within an island of function, but it cannot credibly explain getting to such in config spaces of the scale we are dealing with. And that has been on the table for years. No wonder determined objectors want to discuss anything but such. Hope this helps. KFkairosfocus
March 8, 2014
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Q: Most insightful and -- sadly -- relevant. KFkairosfocus
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jw777, I'd like to add my appreciation for your posts and insights to Sal's. Thank you! -QQuerius
March 8, 2014
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Regarding some of the posts here: "The technique of feigning ignorance often goes hand in hand with the tactic of feigning innocence. When disordered characters use this technique they will either simply act like (or loudly protest) that they have done nothing wrong and have nothing to feel guilty about or ashamed of. If there’s no way they can deny doing something you can prove they did, then they might claim that they had no malicious intent and that any harm that came of what they did was unintended. This tactic serves the purpose of obscuring the true character of their actions." - George Simon, PhD, Clinical Psychology However, the faux naif technique or tactic is not necessarily evil, and can sometimes be playful, depending on the motive behind it. In a sinister form, a person using faux naif can be termed "a wolf in sheep's clothing." A person with a more honorable motive, might be a "Lt. Columbo," or someone using the Socratic method of teaching. Again, I strongly recommend Behe's book, The Edge of Evolution, for a insightful and practical look at what evolution can and cannot do---micro versus macro evolution. Incidentally, after reading Behe's book, it seemed to me that horizontal (or lateral) gene transfer from gut bacteria to animal host would be a interesting avenue for further study as a significant factor in speciation. -QQuerius
March 8, 2014
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JW777, A process which maximizes uncertainty helps the design inference. That is, one does not need to have exact details except for the simple observation that uncertain processes will maximizes uncertainty over time -- more time implies more uncertainty. If an artifact violates the expectation value of an uncertainty maximizing process, we can practically (not absolutely) infer design. I explored the issue here with some examples: The paradox of almost definite knowledge in the face of maximum uncertainty. Thus, having more details isn't necessarily what is needed to make a design inference. Btw, I very very much enjoyed reading what you said. Salscordova
March 8, 2014
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I'm not exactly sure what happened in this thread after my last comment. I don't see what headway, Franklin, you hope to make by debating my personal ability to cure prion infection or accurately predict the adaptation of a flu virus. The inability to do so IS my point, which you are only bolstering. Debating my ability to do what I said I am incapable of doing is a distraction and not Germaine to the discussion - and your repeated reference to limited ranges isn't remotely accurate: in the cathlab we stop patients' hearts every day; in the ICU I've seen IV administration of 7 grams of magnesium (hardly a small change in electrolytes); and many of my good friends pack surgery patients on ice for hours, which literally freezes multiple metabolic cascades to nonexistent. Please don't get distracted by parroting a non-pertinent factoid from webmd or Wikipedia. Back to the matter at hand: what is macroevolution and, even if we agree on some definition of it, is it understandable or probable? I already said my piece, which is, in summary, if we take macroevolution to simply be a multiplied accrual of microevolutionary changes (which, again, we don't understand en toto), it is by definition unrecoverable, the more distant the more unrecoverable. It is not in the faithful evolutionist's best interest to conflate the two, because it yields a battlefield wherein ANY guess approaches the same statistical probability the farther one extrapolates from the present. Notice, I am not saying macroevolution isn't real or didn't happen. I'm merely pointing out that this is not the avenue by which it can be cogently argued, or, if it happened, how to accurately recover it. Much more plausible is that macroevolution represents some kind of punctuated equilibrium-like leap whose mechanism we don't understand at all because we haven't yet observed it happening. Q and kf: I do find the actual calculations of OOL and macroevolution intriguing, but largely outside the purview of my expertise. I do have a very good friend who is a professional mathematician and a legitimate stats genius who consults for scholastic and Microsoft; and I've asked him many times to educate me on how one might go about calculating spontaneous generation and put a number on it. In short: you can't. There are too many assumed hypotheticals which do not exist and therefore whose "chances" are zero. Any formula one creates for spontaneous generation or the establishment of phyla, honestly, must include numerous events with a zero probability. Logically they are impossible. Evidentially, they happened or didn't. I have a certain admiration for people who try to put a number on it; and I find Doug Axe's work fascinating. But two things concern me: 1.) I have been lifelong friends with someone whose undergrad thesis was on the mathematical representation of the optics when your eye sees a termesphere - and his opinion is that spontaneous generation stats always equal zero; and 2.) any calculation not concluding in zero begins by assuming that zero cannot be an answer. That is, to say, Mt. Improbable is actually Mt. Impossible. It is only improbable if you assume it must not be impossible. But following our own observational evidence, it is impossible. This, of course, brings us back to the beginning: Dr. Tour's assertion that no one understands macroevolution. Perhaps the more accurate observation is this: there are people who can imagine fanciful things like macroevolution; but conjectured descriptions of imaginary things do not equate to an understanding of actual factual biological history. More simply: an imagined explanation is not the explanation.jw777
March 8, 2014
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BTW, as he is not banned at UD [I have only said and will enforce, that he is unwelcome in threads I own unless he makes amends for outrageous false accusations that I have for cause found to be so offensive and defamatory that he needs to make amends -- enough is enough], NM is perfectly free to show up in this thread if he wants to. KFkairosfocus
March 8, 2014
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F/N: To see my reasoning behind the FSCO/I concept and its quantification, you may wish to look here on in context. UD also has a lot of stuff in its archives. Try the Weak Argument Correctives and the ID foundations series. KFkairosfocus
March 8, 2014
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F/N: The best way to understand a coin is as a physical approximation to a two-sided die. KFkairosfocus
March 8, 2014
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Ah, Joe: it seems there is a viral epidemic of trollishness. I suspect the shock of discovering a chemist of Tour's eminence has brought the fire ant-nest out a boiling. KFkairosfocus
March 8, 2014
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JW777: I hear you and your cry from 20+ years of work. On randomness, I think the issue is, what does that boil down to. One sense is indeed otherwise unaccounted influences and circumstances that yield some sort of stochastic pattern that fits mathematical distributions. More or less. Another sense is, the apparent direct randomness of quantum phenomena, with the uncertainty principle locking the door to probing in deeper. This manifests in RA decay etc. On the chance variation stuff held to account for novelties cumulatively culled to give rise to descent with alleged unlimited modification in a branching tree pattern, the real challenge, as I pointed out -- but as usual the ID point is routinely ignored or brushed aside by ideologues -- is the needle in haystack search for islands of function in a world of limited atomic resources and time. 500 - 1,000 bits is enough, and for body plans we are looking at 100 - 1,000 kbits for OOL and 10 - 100+ mn bits for body plans. I am not going to smoke my calculator by trying to calculate the size of the haystack relative to the atomic resources of our cosmos, to find islands of function of that magnitude of complexity and specificity. What I will say is that at 500 bits, the 10^57 atoms and 10^17 reasonably available s in our solar system, are as one straw to a haystack in a cube 1,000 light years thick, fatter actually than our Galaxy's central bulge. Every bit beyond doubles the haystack, leading to at 1,000 bits a haystack that relative to the search capacity of our observed cosmos, is as 1 straw to something trillions of times bigger than the observed cosmos. Too much haystack, too few needles and too little search resources. Once the DNA info revo was on the table, Darwin was finished. Just the ideology is culturally too deeply entrenched for it to go quietly and gently into the night. KF PS: Sometimes objectors try to dismiss the concept of islands of function in config spaces. They refuse to acknowledge what happens when many components must be organised just so for function, with only a limited range of possible variations, which need also to be compatible. Namely, only some of the many possible configs will work, and the config space will soon explode beyond search by cosmos scope resources. But then since when were ideologies particularly rational things? Do we think that just because it has on a lab coat this one will be any different?kairosfocus
March 8, 2014
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F/N 2: Observe, how F continues to drum away at his side-track never mind that from 353 it has been shown to be irrelevant and sufficient has been shown to ground the significance of distinguishing micro changes such as blind cave fish, tomcods breaking some biochem to survive in the polluted Hudson, insects resisting insecticide, moth populations shifting with degree of pollution and bird beaks responding to drought conditions etc. The contrast of say building dozens of phylum and subphylum level body plans for the Cambrian fossil revo . . . known to Darwin and still very live as body plan level macro evo has been made plain also. We can add getting to our own body plan, with our verbal language and reasoning ability on the table as serious challenges to evolutionary materialism. And BTW, the spectrum issue is the reason why design thinkers typically emphasise the utterly clear case of macro evolutionary claims, body plan origin. Let's clip 353, as it is buried in a rush of further comments overnight:
Just suppose, for the moment, that we are utterly unable to determine whether purported evolutionary changes in haemoglobin are or are not macro-evolutionary (much less, macroevolutionary by blind watchmaker mechanisms). Of what consequence would this be? Nil. Do we have any good reason other than unwarranted extrapolations, to infer that cumulative genetic accidents culled through differential reproductive success suffice to assemble body plans? No. Do we have good reason to infer blind watchmaker common descent as the only valid understanding of or explanation for molecular resemblances? Not in a world where diverse molecular patterns of resemblance mutually irreconcilably conflict and conflict with the long since proposed tree of life on gross anatomy held to be homologous. And, not in a world where studies of mosaic animals show genes that closely resemble others from all sorts of disparate types of creatures, e.g. in the platypus. Worse, not in a world where recent investigations show that vast swathes of the human genome sit there in the genome of a studied kangaroo, a marsupial held to be divergent from placentals 150 MYA. And of course not in a world where whales and bats have been found to have a common gene connected to their sonar system. Such a pattern much better fits design based on a library, with code reuse and adaptation to particular cases. Especially, where the only empirically warranted, vera causa credible explanation for FSCO/I is design. So, first blind watchmaker mechanisms need to be empirically shown capable of explaining FSCO/I in the here and now, before such is reasonably to be admitted in claimed explanation of a remote, unobserved past of origins. For sure, we should not be letting a priori materialist ideologues dressed up in lab coats self-servingly redefine what “science” means and how it is permitted to explain. Especially, by violating the vera causa principle. In short, yet another distraction and distortion of the balance of material evidence; not to mention, of language and logic of induction.
It should have been clear that the points being pushed by F make no material difference to the main matter. But the all too familiar pattern of distractors and side tracks continues, to justify obfuscation and ideological dismissal by clouding and polarising the atmosphere. We have seen this tactic dozens of times, hundreds rather, over the years. KFkairosfocus
March 8, 2014
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F/N, FYI -- FTR: Any serious commenter intending to be fair would have checked out that NM falsely accused me of deceit in an earlier thread several weeks ago [at roughly Christmas time], as in: "Gish Gallop" . . . as Rational Wiki defines, a very serious accusation of public deceit (and as a rule a patently false accusation, starting with the late Mr Gish himself, who could not have won the vast majority of 3 - 400 debates if he had been doing what he was caricatured as doing by hard core evolutionary materialist ideologues in order to dismiss what he was saying and showing by smearing the messenger, i.e. accuse without good warrant of wholesale "quote mining," which is itself an informal -- and in our experience here at UD, usually false -- accusation of deceitful out of context quotation . . . note the in extenso cites I had to give to correct that insinuation and later accusation, regarding especially Gould's career-long position as a world class expert on what the fossil record actually substantiates and contains). That is the context in which I informed him that absent amends for that, he was not welcome and would be removed as a slanderous heckler, cf. 299 above where I pointed this out to F, and 39 on here, where I summarised what happened to JG . . . with links to the scene of the crime. NM chose to double down, and I took disciplinary action for cause. F's cleverly misleading half-truth on in the same thread, speaks volumes, sadly revealing volumes. Onlookers, THIS is the COMMON level of behaviour by too many objectors to design thought, and if these unscrupulous hecklers are allowed free reign in UD's threads, there would be a fever swamp race to the gutter. I do this for the record, not to feed the troll who will predictably continue twisting the matter into pretzels. KFkairosfocus
March 8, 2014
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franklin:
Joe before we consider what genes are involved in any of the examples let’s first get a commitment from the ID camp on which examples are micr and which are macro changes.
Yes I could see where a baby would act like that. What a grown up would do is present the best evidence he/ she has and go from there. That you choose to play games as opposed to doing that just exposes you as a troll.Joe
March 8, 2014
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If micro evolution is constrained to those changes that occur within one generation does it follow that macro evolutionary changes represent generation 2 and beyond??
Why is it constrained to those changes? I've never said anything like that. So sorry for not being clear here.Asdf
March 8, 2014
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Asdf
No, I didn’t state that. I however stated that if changes occur within 1 generation, then it’s microevolution, not the other way round.
OK, let me get this straight. If micro evolution is constrained to those changes that occur within one generation does it follow that macro evolutionary changes represent generation 2 and beyond??franklin
March 8, 2014
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