Uncommon Descent Serving The Intelligent Design Community

A world-famous chemist tells the truth: there’s no scientist alive today who understands macroevolution

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Professor James M. Tour is one of the ten most cited chemists in the world. He is famous for his work on nanocars (pictured above, courtesy of Wikipedia), nanoelectronics, graphene nanostructures, carbon nanovectors in medicine, and green carbon research for enhanced oil recovery and environmentally friendly oil and gas extraction. He is currently a Professor of Chemistry, Professor of Computer Science, and Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Materials Science at Rice University. He has authored or co-authored 489 scientific publications and his name is on 36 patents. Although he does not regard himself as an Intelligent Design theorist, Professor Tour, along with over 700 other scientists, took the courageous step back in 2001 of signing the Discovery Institute’s “A Scientific Dissent from Darwinism”, which read: “We are skeptical of claims for the ability of random mutation and natural selection to account for the complexity of life. Careful examination of the evidence for Darwinian theory should be encouraged.”

On Professor Tour’s Website, there’s a very revealing article on evolution and creation, in which Tour bluntly states that he does not understand how macroevolution could have happened, from a chemical standpoint (all bold emphases below are mine – VJT):

Although most scientists leave few stones unturned in their quest to discern mechanisms before wholeheartedly accepting them, when it comes to the often gross extrapolations between observations and conclusions on macroevolution, scientists, it seems to me, permit unhealthy leeway. When hearing such extrapolations in the academy, when will we cry out, “The emperor has no clothes!”?

…I simply do not understand, chemically, how macroevolution could have happened. Hence, am I not free to join the ranks of the skeptical and to sign such a statement without reprisals from those that disagree with me? … Does anyone understand the chemical details behind macroevolution? If so, I would like to sit with that person and be taught, so I invite them to meet with me.

In a more recent talk, entitled, Nanotech and Jesus Christ, given on 1 November 2012 at Georgia Tech, Professor Tour went further, and declared that no scientist that he has spoken to understands macroevolution – and that includes Nobel Prize winners! Here’s what he said when a student in the audience asked him about evolution:

I will tell you as a scientist and a synthetic chemist: if anybody should be able to understand evolution, it is me, because I make molecules for a living, and I don’t just buy a kit, and mix this and mix this, and get that. I mean, ab initio, I make molecules. I understand how hard it is to make molecules. I understand that if I take Nature’s tool kit, it could be much easier, because all the tools are already there, and I just mix it in the proportions, and I do it under these conditions, but ab initio is very, very hard.

I don’t understand evolution, and I will confess that to you. Is that OK, for me to say, “I don’t understand this”? Is that all right? I know that there’s a lot of people out there that don’t understand anything about organic synthesis, but they understand evolution. I understand a lot about making molecules; I don’t understand evolution. And you would just say that, wow, I must be really unusual.

Let me tell you what goes on in the back rooms of science – with National Academy members, with Nobel Prize winners. I have sat with them, and when I get them alone, not in public – because it’s a scary thing, if you say what I just said – I say, “Do you understand all of this, where all of this came from, and how this happens?” Every time that I have sat with people who are synthetic chemists, who understand this, they go “Uh-uh. Nope.” These people are just so far off, on how to believe this stuff came together. I’ve sat with National Academy members, with Nobel Prize winners. Sometimes I will say, “Do you understand this?”And if they’re afraid to say “Yes,” they say nothing. They just stare at me, because they can’t sincerely do it.

I was once brought in by the Dean of the Department, many years ago, and he was a chemist. He was kind of concerned about some things. I said, “Let me ask you something. You’re a chemist. Do you understand this? How do you get DNA without a cell membrane? And how do you get a cell membrane without a DNA? And how does all this come together from this piece of jelly?” We have no idea, we have no idea. I said, “Isn’t it interesting that you, the Dean of science, and I, the chemistry professor, can talk about this quietly in your office, but we can’t go out there and talk about this?”

If you understand evolution, I am fine with that. I’m not going to try to change you – not at all. In fact, I wish I had the understanding that you have.

But about seven or eight years ago I posted on my Web site that I don’t understand. And I said, “I will buy lunch for anyone that will sit with me and explain to me evolution, and I won’t argue with you until I don’t understand something – I will ask you to clarify. But you can’t wave by and say, “This enzyme does that.” You’ve got to get down in the details of where molecules are built, for me. Nobody has come forward.

The Atheist Society contacted me. They said that they will buy the lunch, and they challenged the Atheist Society, “Go down to Houston and have lunch with this guy, and talk to him.” Nobody has come! Now remember, because I’m just going to ask, when I stop understanding what you’re talking about, I will ask. So I sincerely want to know. I would like to believe it. But I just can’t.

Now, I understand microevolution, I really do. We do this all the time in the lab. I understand this. But when you have speciation changes, when you have organs changing, when you have to have concerted lines of evolution, all happening in the same place and time – not just one line – concerted lines, all at the same place, all in the same environment … this is very hard to fathom.

I was in Israel not too long ago, talking with a bio-engineer, and [he was] describing to me the ear, and he was studying the different changes in the modulus of the ear, and I said, “How does this come about?” And he says, “Oh, Jim, you know, we all believe in evolution, but we have no idea how it happened.” Now there’s a good Jewish professor for you. I mean, that’s what it is. So that’s where I am. Have I answered the question? (52:00 to 56:44)

Professor Tour’s online talk is absolutely fascinating as well as being deeply moving on a personal level, and I would strongly urge readers to listen to his talk in its entirety – including the questions after the talk. You won’t regret it, I promise you. One interesting little gem of information which I’ll reveal is that it was Professor Tour who was largely instrumental in getting Nobel Laureate Richard Smalley, winner of the 1996 Nobel Prize in Chemistry, to reject Darwinian evolution and accept Old Earth creationism, shortly before he died in 2005. It was Tour who persuaded Smalley to delve into the question of origins. After reading the books “Origins of Life” and “Who Was Adam?”, written by Dr. Hugh Ross (an astrophysicist) and Dr. Fazale Rana (a biochemist).. Dr. Smalley explained his change of heart as follows:

Evolution has just been dealt its death blow. After reading “Origins of Life”, with my background in chemistry and physics, it is clear evolution could not have occurred. The new book, “Who Was Adam?”, is the silver bullet that puts the evolutionary model to death.

Strong words indeed, for a Nobel scientist. Readers can find out more about Professor Richard Smalley’s change of views here.

Why should we believe macroevolution, if nobody understands it?

Now that Professor Tour has informed the world that even Nobel Prize-winning scientists privately admit that they don’t understand macroevolution, a layperson is surely entitled to ask: “Well, if even they don’t understand it, then why should we believe it? How can we possibly be obliged to believe in a theory which nobody understands?”

That’s a good question. And it’s no use for Darwinists to trot out the standard “party line” that “even if we don’t yet understand how it happened, we still have enough evidence to infer that it happened.” At the very most, all that the current scientific evidence could establish is the common descent of living organisms. But that’s not macroevolution. Macroevolution requires more than a common ancestry for living organisms: it requires a natural mechanism which can generate the diversity of life-forms we see on Earth today from a common stock, without the need for any direction by an Intelligent Agent. But the mechanism is precisely what we don’t have evidence for. So the question remains: why should we believe in macroevolution?

The decline of academic freedom

Given the massive uncertainty about the “how” of macroevolution among scientists working in the field, you might think that a wide variety of views would be tolerated in the scientific arena – including the view that there is no such process as macroevolution. However, you would be sadly mistaken. As Professor Tour notes in his online article on evolution and creation, an alarming academic trend has emerged in recent years: a growing intolerance of dissent from Darwinism. This trend is so pronounced that Professor Tour now advises his students not to voice their doubts about Darwinism in public, if they want a successful career:

In the last few years I have seen a saddening progression at several institutions. I have witnessed unfair treatment upon scientists that do not accept macroevolutionary arguments and for their having signed the above-referenced statement regarding the examination of Darwinism. (I will comment no further regarding the specifics of the actions taken upon the skeptics; I love and honor my colleagues too much for that.) I never thought that science would have evolved like this. I deeply value the academy; teaching, professing and research in the university are my privileges and joys…

But my recent advice to my graduate students has been direct and revealing: If you disagree with Darwinian Theory, keep it to yourselves if you value your careers, unless, of course, you’re one of those champions for proclamation; I know that that fire exists in some, so be ready for lead-ridden limbs. But if the scientific community has taken these shots at senior faculty, it will not be comfortable for the young non-conformist. When the power-holders permit no contrary discussion, can a vibrant academy be maintained? Is there a University (unity in diversity)? For the United States, I pray that the scientific community and the National Academy in particular will investigate the disenfranchisement that is manifest upon some of their own, and thereby address the inequity.

It remains to be seen if other countries will allow their young scientists to think freely about the origin of life, and of the various species of organisms that we find on Earth today. What I will say, though, is that countries which restrict academic freedom will eventually be overtaken by countries which allow it to prosper. There is still time for America and Europe to throw off the dead hand of Darwinism in academic circles, and let their young people breathe the unaccustomed air of free speech once again.

(UPDATE: Here’s a link to my follow-up post, Macroevolution, microevolution and chemistry: the devil is in the details. It amply refutes the simplistic charge, made by some skeptics, that Professor Tour was conflating macroevolution with the question of the origin of life.)

UD Editors:  This post has received a great deal of attention lately, so we are moving it back to the front page.

Comments
So are you stating that microevolution are the changes that occur, and easily at that, within one generation?
No, I didn't state that. I however stated that if changes occur within 1 generation, then it's microevolution, not the other way round.Asdf
March 8, 2014
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Asdf
if hemoglobin can be easily lost or restored within say 1 generation then it’s clearly ‘microevolution’.
So are you stating that microevolution are the changes that occur, and easily at that, within one generation?franklin
March 8, 2014
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franklin, thanks for clarification. Why do you think it should be straightforward to deduce what kind of change is it? I think it's an experimental question -- i.e. if hemoglobin can be easily lost or restored within say 1 generation then it's clearly 'microevolution'. I don't understand, maybe you're implying that this case should be well-known to everybody? Could you refer to some data wrt. this variation? What genetic or epigenetic effects are known? Is this a case of genetic redundancy? What are other adaptations specific to non-hemoglobin fish? E.g. do they involve new proteins? What's the 'reverse temperature effect argument'? I can google the 'effect' but i don't understand what's your argument?Asdf
March 8, 2014
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Asdf, teleost fish represent a specific group of fishes with defined characteristics. Within these species there are observed variations in the hemoglobin/oxygen binding properties. Yet in some members of this group of fish there are species which have no hemoglobin and no red blood cells. How much more specific case can be made than hemoglobin/oxygen binding characteristics? That seems quite specific to me. As does the reverse temperature effect argument. How do you see these as not being specific?franklin
March 8, 2014
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franklin, wrt. change I was referring to this:
In the group of fish classified as teleosts is the absence of hemoglobin and red blood cells in a species representative of micro or macro evolutionary change from an ID perspective of course?
Could you please clarify which evolutionary change are you refererring to here? Hemoglobin appeared, disappaeared, changed? I think it makes little sense to ask this w/o getting into the specifics. I think you would make a much stronger case if you will provide a specific example to examine. At least I, as a layman, would appreciate that. ThanksAsdf
March 8, 2014
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Asdf
franklin, your question isn’t clear to me — which ‘change’ are you talking about? ‘absence’ isn’t ‘change’. What are these species? Got any references? This sounds interesting and I hope to hear something more in-depth
Your question doesn't make much sense to me. I never mentioned 'change in any of my posts. So you can see why I don't understand what you are speaking about. Perhaps you could clarify? What species? Teleost fish? There are lots of species of teleost fish and there are libraries of manuscripts concerning many aspects of these organisms. If you want something more in-depth you can use google scholar and use whatever search words you want to pinpoint the subject of interest. If it is teleost fish I'd suggest trying that. If it is fish without red blood cells and hemoglobin try those terms.franklin
March 8, 2014
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Querius..apologies for misspelling your handle in #364. One other point, as in #363, you state the information is so clear then why don't you just posit an answer to my question(s)? I am amazed that this is has proven to be such a difficult question to answer. Who would have thought it!?franklin
March 8, 2014
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franklin, your question isn't clear to me -- which 'change' are you talking about? 'absence' isn't 'change'. What are these species? Got any references? This sounds interesting and I hope to hear something more in-depthAsdf
March 8, 2014
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querious
That’s because you’ve already decided that no one will be able to answer your question in spite of your receiving the information that will make it clear if you were interested, which you’re not.
that is because no one has ventured an answer. all it requires is a yes or a no answer. If you think my question has been answered please direct me to the post where this took place. I promise you that if there is a definitive answer, i.e., clearly yes or no, there then I will provide copious apologies for my missing the answer. I'm begging for an answer....will you provide it?franklin
March 8, 2014
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Let's try to approach this from a different direction. Maybe something more binary (yes versus no) will make it easier to make the determination of micro versus macro evolutionary change. In the group of fish classified as teleosts is the absence of hemoglobin and red blood cells in a species representative of micro or macro evolutionary change from an ID perspective of course?franklin
March 8, 2014
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franklin,
However, from my perspective no IDist is capable of making any determination of what is a micro evolutionary event versus a macro evolutionary event
That's because you've already decided that no one will be able to answer your question in spite of your receiving the information that will make it clear if you were interested, which you're not. A third flush. Goodbye.Querius
March 8, 2014
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Querious
From my perspective, I gave franklin a good starting point for understanding the practical difference between micro and macro evolution in good faith. Dr. Behe’s The Edge of Evolution provides a clear explanation based on a real-life problem.
Of course from your perspective that is how you perceive the situation. However, from my perspective no IDist is capable of making any determination of what is a micro evolutionary event versus a macro evolutionary event....outside the fact that one has a 'i' in it an the other an 'a'. Just look, here we are nearly 100 posts later and no one in the ID camp can make a definitive statement that the observed variation of hemoglobin/oxygen binding in teleost fish represents micro evolutionary changes or macro. It is clear that you guys just don't know how to answer this question!franklin
March 7, 2014
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Good call, kf. From my perspective, I gave franklin a good starting point for understanding the practical difference between micro and macro evolution in good faith. Dr. Behe's The Edge of Evolution provides a clear explanation based on a real-life problem. However, by brushing off my reference because it didn't deal specifically with teleost fish, franklin demonstrated that he's not interested in an answer at all, but merely looking for opportunities to act obnoxiously and feign mistreatment as a result. So, I'm flushing twice and moving on. jw777, thanks for taking the time to write your interesting post. I keyed in on your statements regarding randomness. You're probably aware that any possibility of mechanistic determinism was crushed by chaos theory, in which the slightest variation in initial conditions can result in dramatically different results (aka the butterfly effect). Furthermore, quantum effects are now suspected in several biologic systems (involving hemoglobin, photosynthesis, and DNA) adding to the complexity and unpredictability. These factors alone leave a hole in mechanistic determinism large enough to drive a truck through---or for God to be pulling the strings and no one would ever know it! -QQuerius
March 7, 2014
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KF: I've done over 40,000 hours of work in the field of macro systems biology and several of my colleagues are Alzheimer's researchers from the UofM and Chicago. I'd really rather not get into a review of what I do all day every day, so much as point out the inherent incoherence in trying to extrapolate hodie ab ignorantiam to "prove" something in the nearly infinite past. It just cannot be done. Of everyone on here, I want it to be true the most. It is what I live; and I'm telling you it cannot be done. There are too many variables involved. And that is the conclusion: there is no such thing as random. Random is merely the word we use to describe something so complex that we cannot yet (and likely never will) wrap our heads around every variable in a meaningful way. Digressing but a little, even the 500 coins illustration can never be explained honestly as random. Each coin, thrown jointly down, will run into the others following physical laws in theoretically predictable ways, bouncing off the surface with a specific friction coefficient, etc. There is no way to describe anything fundamentally as random, because there isn't anything that is fundamentally random. But there are so many systems so far beyond our wildest dreams that the best we can do is call them random. Others might call the force behind it a mind, a super intelligence so powerful that we might as well label it random, except that it clearly isn't any such thing as purpose appears to appear from out of the seemingly incomprehensible. I do not yet say either. I just say we don't know enough yet about the immediate to start making proclamations about the distant. Why is a call to humility so offensive?jw777
March 7, 2014
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Kf
F/N: Onlookers, by the double standard F would impose, if I were to paint over slanderous graffiti plastered over my home or business, or remove a heckler spewing similar slanders and seeking to disrupt, I would be guilty of “censorship.”
Any fair reader recognizes that <strongDr Matzke did none of those things in the thread you censored him. He did respond to some, what appears fairly blatant, misrepresentation and false implications, about what he did with private correspondence. You of course did nothing to address that issue but instead focused on Dr Matzke. You are attacking a straw man characterization of the events in question which is obvious to all the onlookers. but, hey, you have the last word(s) or f/n and ppps and all that.franklin
March 7, 2014
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jw777
The most promising avenues (currently imaginable) would be in accelerating proteolytic pathways, glutathione synthesis, and citric acid cycle alterations. Perhaps we need to engender changes in cyclic AMP, or raise serum levels of d-beta hydroxybutyrate, or downregulate triiodothyronine.
any significant modifications of any of the biochemical pathways you mention have severe limitations and potentially life threatening consequences. Just consider modifications of proteolytic pathways. Surely, you can see the difficulties that this could present to the patient. but aside from that I realize you were talking about prions. It was in the quote I copied from your post. Why wouldn't I recognize that you were talking about prions is beyond me. I mentioned a few physiological concerns only because you did not provide any information about what you meant by 'attenuating prion environment'. You also seem focused on vaccines. Are you questioning the efficacy of vaccines in general or just the f;u vaccines, which, granted, aren't the berst match in any given year but often provide some attenuation of the magnitude of the disease response. do you think that vaccines for childhood preventable diseases risk is greater than benefit?franklin
March 7, 2014
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JW777: One of the keys to prions is they are alternative foldings of AA chains that are more stable than the biologically normal forms [which IIRC, can in effect trigger cascading misfolding and then clutter up proper function leading to scrapies and the like . . . is this still suspected in Alzheimer's?], and so we have another tier of information in cellular chemistry -- guidance into metastable but useful configs. But by extension, that holds for AA chains too, they are notoriously highly endothermic and that is why they are so carefully manufactured under NC control. But then, this PC is similarly manufactured and metastable relative to the ultimate state its contents will achieve in some years from now. KFkairosfocus
March 7, 2014
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PS: Prediction, F will try to ignore or brush aside the just above without adequately addressing the underlying issue. He needs to attend to Philip Johnson's correction to Lewontin, in the aftermath of Lewontin's notorious NYRB a priori materialism article. Let me clip, so we can understand what is really going on:
For scientific materialists the materialism comes first; the science comes thereafter. [[Emphasis original] We might more accurately term them "materialists employing science." And if materialism is true, then some materialistic theory of evolution has to be true simply as a matter of logical deduction, regardless of the evidence. That theory will necessarily be at least roughly like neo-Darwinism, in that it will have to involve some combination of random changes and law-like processes capable of producing complicated organisms that (in Dawkins’ words) "give the appearance of having been designed for a purpose." . . . . The debate about creation and evolution is not deadlocked . . . Biblical literalism is not the issue. The issue is whether materialism and rationality are the same thing. Darwinism is based on an a priori commitment to materialism, not on a philosophically neutral assessment of the evidence. Separate the philosophy from the science, and the proud tower collapses. [[Emphasis added.] [[The Unraveling of Scientific Materialism, First Things, 77 (Nov. 1997), pp. 22 – 25.]
kairosfocus
March 7, 2014
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Franklin, Thank you for highlighting my point. The complexity of attenuation is so grand that we cannot even solve the simplest finite problems in front of us; but we are somehow ready to declare a complete enough knowledge about them as to suppose a specific story over eons. I am far too humble to think I could possibly know every pressure one might bring to bear in addressing prions. That was precisely my point. It doesn't sound like you have a background in biology, but why would you propose electrolytes and variance in temperature? Anything measurable on CBC/CMP and basic diagnostics is largely already being handled by glucocorticoids and immunoglobulins. I'm talking about prions. The most promising avenues (currently imaginable) would be in accelerating proteolytic pathways, glutathione synthesis, and citric acid cycle alterations. Perhaps we need to engender changes in cyclic AMP, or raise serum levels of d-beta hydroxybutyrate, or downregulate triiodothyronine. I don't know. Nobody does. More importantly, there are all of the things we don't know that we should perhaps attenuate, and the things that we don't know that we don't know. That, my friend, is the very depressing point. I wish that we could declare with vigor all of the mysteries of biology. I want to. But, alas, if we strive for humility, we cannot.jw777
March 7, 2014
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F/N: Just suppose, for the moment, that we are utterly unable to determine whether purported evolutionary changes in haemoglobin are or are not macro-evolutionary (much less, macroevolutionary by blind watchmaker mechanisms). Of what consequence would this be? Nil. Do we have any good reason other than unwarranted extrapolations, to infer that cumulative genetic accidents culled through differential reproductive success suffice to assemble body plans? No. Do we have good reason to infer blind watchmaker common descent as the only valid understanding of or explanation for molecular resemblances? Not in a world where diverse molecular patterns of resemblance mutually irreconcilably conflict and conflict with the long since proposed tree of life on gross anatomy held to be homologous. And, not in a world where studies of mosaic animals show genes that closely resemble others from all sorts of disparate types of creatures, e.g. in the platypus. Worse, not in a world where recent investigations show that vast swathes of the human genome sit there in the genome of a studied kangaroo, a marsupial held to be divergent from placentals 150 MYA. And of course not in a world where whales and bats have been found to have a common gene connected to their sonar system. Such a pattern much better fits design based on a library, with code reuse and adaptation to particular cases. Especially, where the only empirically warranted, vera causa credible explanation for FSCO/I is design. So, first blind watchmaker mechanisms need to be empirically shown capable of explaining FSCO/I in the here and now, before such is reasonably to be admitted in claimed explanation of a remote, unobserved past of origins. For sure, we should not be letting a priori materialist ideologues dressed up in lab coats self-servingly redefine what "science" means and how it is permitted to explain. Especially, by violating the vera causa principle. In short, yet another distraction and distortion of the balance of material evidence; not to mention, of language and logic of induction. KFkairosfocus
March 7, 2014
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PPS: The spin games continue. F knows I would not be going into someone's blog to falsely accuse them of deceit. He knows I would not heckle. He knows that his words are self-servingly hollow. Enough, sufficient has been said for record.kairosfocus
March 7, 2014
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F/N: Onlookers, by the double standard F would impose, if I were to paint over slanderous graffiti plastered over my home or business, or remove a heckler spewing similar slanders and seeking to disrupt, I would be guilty of "censorship." He has obviously concluded the accusation "censorship" is a useful well-poisoning smear and distractor and cares nothing for truth or fairness or civility, nor is he willing to recognise that just as no one has a free speech right to shout fire in a crowded theatre that has no fire, no one has a free speech right to heckle or slander; both of which his champion indulged. As noted that champion can return to discussion threads I own on a very simple basis: apologising and amending his ways from false accusations. I propose that henceforth, we view him as a proved troll for record, and note that similarly he has no reasonable response on the other distractor he is trying to inject. Notice, unresponsiveness to correction while trying to inject talking points, many of which are laced with snide or toxic insinuations.kairosfocus
March 7, 2014
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Kf
Okay, Franklin, you have confirmed your status as a heckler and enabler of slander who has no regard for truth or fairness when it comes to those you hold in contempt. I hope you are happy with the rather public achievement. KF
Kf, I would voice my complaint about censorship were anyone ever to do what you did to Dr. Matzke were done to you....for whatever rational they provide outside of you posting malware or something along the lines of the picture joe posted at TSZ. So, sure, whatever you said/think but we will note for the record that you still haven't answered the question about the micro versus macro hemoglobin/oxygen binding teleost fish question but then again no one else has been able to muster an answer either. franklin
March 7, 2014
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Okay, Franklin, you have confirmed your status as a heckler and enabler of slander who has no regard for truth or fairness when it comes to those you hold in contempt. I hope you are happy with the rather public achievement. KFkairosfocus
March 7, 2014
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jw777
no one understands attenuating the environmental pressures pushing protein folding or misfolding enough to cure prion-infected individuals
this comment of yours I found interesting. given that the environment of prions is the organism what environmental pressures are you going to be able to attenuate? If it's pH your limited to a very narrow range with a well buffered systesm, If it's going to be temperature the organism ony can function within a narrow range of temperature so I don't see how that is going to help. If you are talking electrolyte concentration your in a similar pickle with all sorts of problems arising which can be quickly fatal. So I guess my question is what do you have in mind when you think that you can attenuate the environment of the prion?franklin
March 7, 2014
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I'm not sure why anyone would think it's in the faithful evolutionist's best interest to assume macroevolution is just a whole lotta microevolution. The much more promising prospect is to assume the two have no relation at all. Let me say this again: no one understands attenuating the environmental pressures pushing protein folding or misfolding enough to cure prion-infected individuals; and our predictive models for virology are so bad that no one can agree if vaccines are actually reducing risk beyond the reduction in risk from elderly people just getting healthier to begin with. But, let's again, in the favor of evolutionary faith, assume extremely high accuracy, like, say, 99%. Let's say that someone out there can predict with 99% accuracy what's going to happen to a given virus in 6 months. No one can, or ever will. But let's just believe it for a minute. What's the statistical accuracy as we go to 12 months? 90% What about 18 months? 80% What about ten years? 5%? You can see where this is going. That is one virus, where we actually can have a very good idea of many of the environmental pressures and calculate decently. Now imagine countless species, families, orders, interacting in unobservable unpredictable ways with climatic shifts, atmospheric changes, variable solar cycles, over even 10,000 years. Do you think we could extrapolate at better than 0.000000001% accuracy for all of the biodiversity on the face of the planet? Doubtful. Now imagine 100,000 or a million or billions of years. This is not a straw man. It is a rather hopeful picture of how we might BEST recover the distant. And it is despairingly bleak. Even when adding in geological, archaeological and paleontological evidence for intermittent correction, the statistical precision is never going to push the needle higher than a trillionth of a percent, in the very best optimistic scenarios. And frankly, 1% might as well be 0%. Assuming that macroevolution is just a lotta microevolution is not a stay of execution. It is the execution.jw777
March 7, 2014
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Querius, you do know that the oxygen binding properties of Hb in SS anemia are a result, principally, of increased levels of 2,3-DPG and Hb aggregation. this is not in any way analogous to the observed variations in oxygen binding, e.g., reverse temperature effect, found in teleost fish. thanks for trying, though.franklin
March 7, 2014
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hemoglobin variation in oxygen binding properties observed in teleost fish. Could you please expand on what kind of changes are these? 'Evolution' is supposed to mean 'change in time', so what changed to what exactly? Quick google search left me confused. Thanks.Asdf
March 7, 2014
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Franklin,
Querius, does Dr. Behe describe what is considered to be micro versus macro? What does this indicate for hemoglobin in teleost fish? Would he consider it as micro or macro evolutionary changes?
Yes, indeed. Dr. Behe plainly states that he accepts micro evolution, providing examples from his work on malaria and sickle cell anemia. He then traces another human mutation (I believe it originated in New York) that was able to thwart malaria for about 30 years. Behe's The Edge of Evolution is easy to understand and well worth the read. Since you're obviously interested in the subject, I'd recommend it to you. He builds his case for what evolution can and can't accomplish, but it requires more than a simple post like this to explain convincingly. You might want to email him your question about hemoglobin since that's a key component in his malaria research. But read his book first so you don't waste his time. -QQuerius
March 7, 2014
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KF
Franklin, you are intelligent enough to use a dictionary, so you know or full well should know the difference between doing the equivalent of calling security to deal with a disruptive and slanderous heckler and having and using power to effectively suppress publication of ideas.
Yes, Kf, I understand that any excuse is better than none at all. It is still censorship on your part and the deliberate modifications of Dr. Matzke's post also represents a very troubling trend in censoring people who you don't like. KF also says
Franklin: Similarly, you have been sufficiently informed as to the difference between macro and micro to face the substantial matter, if you were willing
Yes, I understand you cannot answer the question I posed about hemoglobin variation in oxygen binding properties observed in teleost fish.franklin
March 7, 2014
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