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California v. Florida: COVID-19 Response and Results

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Much has been written about

In this article, Keith Carlson compares California (first in the nation with drastic lockdown measures that are not yet lifted) with Florida (lockdown started two weeks later and is already easing). This is the summary:

  • California’s population is 39.5 million, Florida’s is 21.5 million.
  • The average age in each state is: California, 36Florida, 42—Floridians an average of six years older.
  • As of April 23, California had 33,261 one cases and 1,268 COVID-19 deaths;
  • Florida had 27,869 cases and 867 deaths. Meaning, 0.08 percent and 0.1 percent of those states’ populations were infected.
  • California’s death-per-infected rate: 3.8 percent, Florida’s: 3.1 percent, with an equally small percentage of each state’s population having died, less than 0.005 percent.
  • California’s 39.5 million people are spread out over 163,696 square miles, Florida’s 21.5 million are over 65,755 square miles—thus, California has 241.3 people per mile, Florida has 327.
  • California’s restrictions started on March 19, Florida’s two weeks later on April 3. California’s peak resource date was April 13, Florida’s was earlier, on April 12. According to IHME forecasts, both states had substantially more hospital and ICU beds than needed.

As of April 16, California (first with the stay-home order) had lost 2.8 million jobs (7 percent of the entire state), New York 1.2 million (4 percent of the state), yet Florida just 654,000 (2 percent of the state.) 

Comments
Strange comment after you just agreed with me.
Eh? I was pointing out that it actually is easy to walk across the border (except where it's wet, but for a lot of that you can swim or take a boat. In summer, at least).Bob O'H
May 9, 2020
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I’m guessing you’ve never looked at a map of the Scandinavian peninsula
Strange comment after you just agreed with me. I have been to each Scandinavian countries. So yes I have looked at map of them. Probably hundreds of times.
Yes, flattening the curve does do this, by not overwhelming the health services.
No it does not save lives. In the United States the health system is almost shut down in many places. So overwhelming the health care system is not an issue. Past experiences in economic slow downs mean a lot more loss of life. So deaths will increase because of flattening the curve. The one place it is not is car accidents.jerry
May 8, 2020
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It is like an island in the sense that it is not easy to just walk across the border to get to it.
Yes it is. Except in Winder when you have to ski across. I'm guessing you've never looked at a map of the Scandinavian peninsula. There's a huge land border, with to countries. And the Öresund isn't very wide, so you could probably row across if you're fit.
The real issue is minimizing death amongst those who do get it. Flattening the curves or lockdowns don’t do this.
Yes, flattening the curve does do this, by not overwhelming the health services.Bob O'H
May 8, 2020
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Has anybody been to Sweden? It is like an island in the sense that it is not easy to just walk across the border to get to it. Stockholm is on the Baltic surrounded by over 10,000 small islands. Malmo is separated from Denmark by a bridge that is easily controlled. Gothenburg is also a port city. So it would be easy to isolate itself from the rest of the world. I am not sure this makes a difference relevant to the virus since everyone has to get it or at least a very large percentage has to get it. The real issue is minimizing death amongst those who do get it. Flattening the curves or lockdowns don't do this. Effective treatments do and especially when they are early in the infection process. We are learning there are no really effective treatments after hospitalization especially when the virus has progressed widely in the body. So are we talking about irrelevant issues?jerry
May 8, 2020
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Is there much more of a death threat from the lockdown than the virus? Harvard believes so or at least they did a few years ago. https://bit.ly/2Wftsq1jerry
May 8, 2020
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I put a link below to show Sweden. About halfway down, you get the daily deaths. Their peak was reach on April 21, with 185 dead. If herd immunity has not started to happen, how are the death rates declining?
Because their social distancing strategies are working, so R_0 is now slightly less than 1?Bob O'H
May 8, 2020
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New Zealand is an island with less than half the population of Sweden. You cannot compare islands to other countries. Sweden borders Norway, Finland and Denmark. Rather than wanting to ignore Sweden, how about answering the questions posed?BobRyan
May 7, 2020
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BobRyan: I put a link below to show Sweden. About halfway down, you get the daily deaths. Their peak was reach on April 21, with 185 dead. If herd immunity has not started to happen, how are the death rates declining? If you look at the Daily New Cases graph that has dropped a little but it's not clear it's dying out. The Daily Deaths graph has dropped below its peak but, again, it's not clearly decreasing anymore; granted deaths lag behind new cases by weeks. Compare Sweden's Daily New Case graph with New Zealand's. I'd say Sweden is doing pretty well (compared to some other European countries) but they're not out of the woods yet.JVL
May 7, 2020
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The Diamond Princess was one of the cruise ships to make headlines over a COVID-19 outbreak. There were 3711 passengers and 712 crew members. Cruise ships are not known for healthy and young passengers and the Diamond Princess was no different. 712 became infected, which is just over 19%. Over 80% of the people never contracted the virus. 331 were asymptomatic and 381 symptomatic. Of the 381 who showed symptoms, 37 required intensive care and recovered and 9 died. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e3.htmBobRyan
May 7, 2020
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The USS Theodore Roosevelt has a crew of approximately 4800. Of this, according to several recent reports, about 1100 have tested positive. Let's err on the side of caution and move it to 1200 crew-members, which means 25% of a population in close contact on a daily basis have gotten the virus and 75% have not gotten it, nor will they. Of that 25%, 1 sailor has died. If this were influenza, you would have a lot more than 25% contract the virus and certainly have more than 1 death.BobRyan
May 7, 2020
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JVL @ 54 You ask what data I'm using to say Sweden appears to have reached herd immunity. Using a source you seem to enjoy using, I put a link below to show Sweden. About halfway down, you get the daily deaths. Their peak was reach on April 21, with 185 dead. If herd immunity has not started to happen, how are the death rates declining? https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/BobRyan
May 7, 2020
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Jerry: I am not sure it does. It was written 6 weeks ago long before there was lots of good information. It was addressing the need to have further 'clinical' trials. That was what I was trying to address. Your take on the progression of a C19 infection seems reasonable.JVL
May 6, 2020
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Just to make sure you don’t talk past each other: COVID-19 is the disease, SARS-CoV-2 is the virus.
Just to be accurate. Let's call someone who has been infected, as having had or has C19. The infection then takes on several possible paths in the body and one is to be defeated early by the immune system. Then there are those who exhibit mild symptoms and seem to come out the other end apparently unharmed as in a common cold. Then there are some who start exhibiting various serious symptoms and enter the hospital. Most here will survive but a significant percentage will not. Some of the effects of the virus are different between patients. For example, the virus just replicating unhindered creates a lot of junk in the cells and eventually kills them. This seems to happen a lot in the lungs. Then there are those patients whose blood epithelial cells are attacked and this causes blood clotting problems. So let's just say the infection produces various effects most of which are harmless. but some are lethal. It seems the solution to those who contract the virus, that the immune system is necessary to defeat it. Some interventions prevent or slow down the virus replicating and hopefully the immune system then can kill it. Then there are possible interventions that actually attack the virus out side the cell. There are probably more but we are quickly learning how it operates and how best to combat it. At any point while the virus is still active in the body the person can apparently infect others. After the virus has been killed, it is unlikely the person can still infect others and we believe that at this point is immune to further infections but we do not know for sure. I am sure t.his could be written more accurately.jerry
May 6, 2020
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But I think this article will address your concerns
I am not sure it does. It was written 6 weeks ago long before there was lots of good information.
I can’t explain that data but that doesn’t make all the other data false either.
I din't say it made anything else false. It is an interesting piece of information about how deadly the virus is. This happened long before they were considering any treatment.jerry
May 6, 2020
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Bob O'H: Just to make sure you don’t talk past each other: COVID-19 is the disease, SARS-CoV-2 is the virus. So someone who is asymptomatic would presumably be said to not have the disease. An excellent point!! I'm not sure BobRyan was making that distinction but I'm glad to be reminded of it.JVL
May 6, 2020
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If someone does not have pneumonia like symptoms, it cannot be COVID-19. What about the asymptomatic people who have tested positive?
Just to make sure you don't talk past each other: COVID-19 is the disease, SARS-CoV-2 is the virus. So someone who is asymptomatic would presumably be said to not have the disease.Bob O'H
May 6, 2020
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Jerry: I answered in great haste. But I think this article: https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/are-hydroxychloroquine-and-azithromycin-an-effective-treatment-for-covid-19/ will address your concerns. It's lengthy but does directly address the quality of data issue. From the author's point of view of course. But it must be fake news. No one is saying that. See what you think of the link just above. I'm not saying you'll agree with it but I think it presents the case for full-on clinical studies. And please note, the author is open minded enough to say "It's possible" that HCQ is efficacious. He just wants more data. So. the fact that so few on the Diamond Princess died is an indication of how lethal the virus is. Everyone on the ship was exposed to the virus. It would have been impossible to avoid it. I can't explain that data but that doesn't make all the other data false either.JVL
May 6, 2020
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Asauber: Sure. And you didn’t answer my question. I do apologise. State it again and I'll have a go when I have the time. Just here for a few.JVL
May 6, 2020
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BobRyan: JVL @ 34 shrugs off Sweden as an odd data point. One of the few countries who have gone about their business and treated this as any other virus. They are on the verge of herd immunity in Stockholm. I'm not sure that is true. What data set are you referencing? I think they've still got some ways to go. I'm not shrugging them off but there may be some confounding factor we're unaware of. What about the cruise ships? A much wider variation of people and they did not become floating morgues. Show me the data set you are referencing. You also shrug off more COVID-19 deaths in the US than have been total pneumonia deaths in the same country. COVID-19 attacks the lungs of a compromised human host. I'm not shrugging them off; I'm saying it's data that says COVID-19 is nasty. If you want to dispute the official stats then please be clear what exactly you are disputing. If someone does not have pneumonia like symptoms, it cannot be COVID-19. What about the asymptomatic people who have tested positive? How many are going to commit suicide, or have committed suicide due to doom and gloom? You spout science-fiction and spread a message of hopelessness. Hopelessness? Not even close. I'm proposing we follow the best available medical advice and AVOID unnecessary COVID-19 deaths. I know it's hard, I know it's boring, I know it can be really depressing. I live in the UK. During WWII the people of the UK put up with a lot worse than COVID-19. They struggled, a lot, but they persevered and they stood fast. And they won. I'm sure there were people who couldn't cope with bombings and blackouts and food rationing. It was hard, very hard. But they did it. Together we can win. There is hope. No one is saying otherwise.JVL
May 6, 2020
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What about the cruise ships? A much wider variation of people and they did not become floating morgues.
I can tell you about cruise ships since I was on one when all this started in early March, actually a Princess cruise. The typical population is very old and many are in extremely bad health. The number of pounds overweight would add up to several hundred tons for the passengers. The crew is just the opposite, young and in good health and few that are over weight. So. the fact that so few on the Diamond Princess died is an indication of how lethal the virus is. Everyone on the ship was exposed to the virus. It would have been impossible to avoid it.jerry
May 6, 2020
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"In fact, time to go for awhile. Sorry." Well, you know the old saying... "He who Trolls and runs away, lives to Troll another day." Andrewasauber
May 6, 2020
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This is one article from the Science Based Medicine blog addressing the issue:
I went to this link and did not see any negative evidence. He points to Gorski who just says there is no positive evidence and criticizes Raoul as a charlatan. His conclusion
Low short-term risk, but completely uncertain efficacy
So no negative information as this author points to someone who calls Raoult a charlatan and uses of HCQ cult like and others as quacks. But there is positive information and lots of it. Is the American Association of Physicians and Surgeons a bunch of quacks? So can I call someone who doesn't point to the positive information but laces his comments with political hits a quack ? I can provide almost a hundred reports like this. https://bit.ly/2SJcHRU But it must be fake news.jerry
May 6, 2020
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JVL, "As I’ve said several times" Sure. And you didn't answer my question. Andrewasauber
May 6, 2020
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JVL @ 34 shrugs off Sweden as an odd data point. One of the few countries who have gone about their business and treated this as any other virus. They are on the verge of herd immunity in Stockholm. What about the cruise ships? A much wider variation of people and they did not become floating morgues. You also shrug off more COVID-19 deaths in the US than have been total pneumonia deaths in the same country. COVID-19 attacks the lungs of a compromised human host. If someone does not have pneumonia like symptoms, it cannot be COVID-19. How many are going to commit suicide, or have committed suicide due to doom and gloom? You spout science-fiction and spread a message of hopelessness.BobRyan
May 6, 2020
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Asauber: I didn’t comment this. Yes, sorry. I'm rushing too much. In fact, time to go for awhile. Sorry.JVL
May 6, 2020
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Asauber: Who is being honest and how can you tell if they are being honest? Anyone specific in mind As I've said several times: if you have access to better data please so state because I'd like to have that as well. I appreciate that you want to be sure but you've provided no alternative that you consider more accurate.JVL
May 6, 2020
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JVL, "Asauber: Maybe you would like to share them with us because I haven’t seen any especially when used with zinc. Please don’t reference the VA report which was not relevant." I didn't comment this. Andrewasauber
May 6, 2020
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Asauber: Maybe you would like to share them with us because I haven’t seen any especially when used with zinc. Please don’t reference the VA report which was not relevant. Dr Steven Novella for one on his blog and podcast This is one article from the Science Based Medicine blog addressing the issue: https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/hydroxychloroquine-retinal-toxicity-and-covid-19/ (It references other posts which may be of more interest but I'll leave it to you to peruse the site.) As usual, you can search PubMed for articles like this: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32363212 https://www.drugs.com/medical-answers/hydroxychloroquine-effective-covid-19-3536024/ https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200422/Is-hydroxychloroquine-effective-against-COVID-19.aspx This article explains clearly what was wrong with some of the early studies: https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/are-hydroxychloroquine-and-azithromycin-an-effective-treatment-for-covid-19/ (If you're only going to read one article I'd read this last one.) Perhaps I shouldn't have said articles as many of the opinions I've heard were expressed live on BBC Radio 4 or during one of their many news broadcasts. And I didn't think to write them all down so that I could find them again!! Then there's this from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_drug_repurposing_research#Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine
Chloroquine is an anti-malarial medication that is also used against some auto-immune diseases. On 18 March, the WHO announced that chloroquine and the related hydroxychloroquine would be among the four drugs studied as part of the Solidarity clinical trial.[10] On 19 March, President Donald Trump encouraged the use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine during a national press conference. These endorsements led to massive increases in public demand for the drugs [11]. New York governor Andrew Cuomo announced that New York State trials of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine would begin on 24 March.[12] On 28 March, the FDA authorized the use of hydroxychloroquine sulfate and chloroquine phosphate under an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA).[13] The treatment has not been approved by the FDA's clinical trials process and is authorized under the EUA only as an experimental treatment for emergency use in patients who are hospitalized but are not able to receive treatment in a clinical trial.[14][15] The CDC has said that "the use, dosing, or duration of hydroxychloroquine for prophylaxis or treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection" are not yet established.[16] Doctors have said they are using the drug when "there's no other option".[17] On 9 April, the National Institutes of Health began the first clinical trial to assess whether hydroxychloroquine is safe and effective to treat COVID?19.[17][18] On 12 April, a preliminary clinical trial conducted at a hospital in Brazil was stopped when several people given high doses of chloroquine for COVID?19 infection developed irregular heart rates, causing eleven deaths.[19][20] According to Johns Hopkins' ABX Guide for COVID?19, "HCQ may cause prolonged QT, and caution should be used in critically ill COVID?19 patients who may have cardiac dysfunction or if combined with other drugs that cause QT prolongation".[21] There are several studies underway on prophylactic use of chloroquine, especially in healthcare workers and their families. A Turkish research team in Istanbul is conducting a small study on the use of chloroquine in combination with zinc, vitamin A, vitamin C and vitamin D.[22] Large studies are underway at Duke University and the University of Oxford. NYU Langone Medical School is conducting a trial on the safety and efficacy of preventative use of hydroxychloroquine.[23] On April 24 the FDA cautioned against using the drug outside a hospital setting or clinical trial after reviewing case reports filed in the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System database and data from other sources. The adverse effects reported included ventricular tachycardia, ventricular fibrillation and in some cases death.[24] (Sorry for not stripping the reference numbers out, I'm a bit tight on time just now.)
JVL
May 6, 2020
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Most of the deaths are taking place in long term care facilities and this includes nursing home. Here is a headline from a local newspaper in New Hampshire
More Than Three In Four N.H. COVID Deaths Occurred In Long-Term Care Homes
You can find similar reports everywhere. For example here is a headline about Europe
As many as half of Europe's COVID-19 deaths were people in long-term care facilities
https://bit.ly/2A5TdAD And in the US https://bit.ly/3fkvIE9 But no coverage of Texas nursing home of success in fighting the virus https://bit.ly/2A523i5 So maybe people should check. their sources for information. Here are liberals in US criticizing the press which is extremely liberal for fake news on this topic. https://bit.ly/2Wa9f59jerry
May 6, 2020
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"I happen to think that the virus is worth fighting and I also think that you have to be honest with people about what is happening. " JVL, Who is being honest and how can you tell if they are being honest? Anyone specific in mind? Andrewasauber
May 6, 2020
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