California v. Florida: COVID-19 Response and Results

Strange comment after you just agreed with me.

Eh? I was pointing out that it actually is easy to walk across the border (except where it's wet, but for a lot of that you can swim or take a boat. In summer, at least). Bob O'H

I’m guessing you’ve never looked at a map of the Scandinavian peninsula

Strange comment after you just agreed with me. I have been to each Scandinavian countries. So yes I have looked at map of them. Probably hundreds of times.

Yes, flattening the curve does do this, by not overwhelming the health services.

No it does not save lives. In the United States the health system is almost shut down in many places. So overwhelming the health care system is not an issue. Past experiences in economic slow downs mean a lot more loss of life. So deaths will increase because of flattening the curve. The one place it is not is car accidents. jerry

It is like an island in the sense that it is not easy to just walk across the border to get to it.

Yes it is. Except in Winder when you have to ski across. I'm guessing you've never looked at a map of the Scandinavian peninsula. There's a huge land border, with to countries. And the Öresund isn't very wide, so you could probably row across if you're fit.

The real issue is minimizing death amongst those who do get it. Flattening the curves or lockdowns don’t do this.

Yes, flattening the curve does do this, by not overwhelming the health services. Bob O'H

Has anybody been to Sweden? It is like an island in the sense that it is not easy to just walk across the border to get to it. Stockholm is on the Baltic surrounded by over 10,000 small islands. Malmo is separated from Denmark by a bridge that is easily controlled. Gothenburg is also a port city. So it would be easy to isolate itself from the rest of the world. I am not sure this makes a difference relevant to the virus since everyone has to get it or at least a very large percentage has to get it. The real issue is minimizing death amongst those who do get it. Flattening the curves or lockdowns don't do this. Effective treatments do and especially when they are early in the infection process. We are learning there are no really effective treatments after hospitalization especially when the virus has progressed widely in the body. So are we talking about irrelevant issues? jerry

Is there much more of a death threat from the lockdown than the virus? Harvard believes so or at least they did a few years ago. https://bit.ly/2Wftsq1 jerry

I put a link below to show Sweden. About halfway down, you get the daily deaths. Their peak was reach on April 21, with 185 dead. If herd immunity has not started to happen, how are the death rates declining?

Because their social distancing strategies are working, so R_0 is now slightly less than 1? Bob O'H

New Zealand is an island with less than half the population of Sweden. You cannot compare islands to other countries. Sweden borders Norway, Finland and Denmark. Rather than wanting to ignore Sweden, how about answering the questions posed? BobRyan

BobRyan: I put a link below to show Sweden. About halfway down, you get the daily deaths. Their peak was reach on April 21, with 185 dead. If herd immunity has not started to happen, how are the death rates declining? If you look at the Daily New Cases graph that has dropped a little but it's not clear it's dying out. The Daily Deaths graph has dropped below its peak but, again, it's not clearly decreasing anymore; granted deaths lag behind new cases by weeks. Compare Sweden's Daily New Case graph with New Zealand's. I'd say Sweden is doing pretty well (compared to some other European countries) but they're not out of the woods yet. JVL

The Diamond Princess was one of the cruise ships to make headlines over a COVID-19 outbreak. There were 3711 passengers and 712 crew members. Cruise ships are not known for healthy and young passengers and the Diamond Princess was no different. 712 became infected, which is just over 19%. Over 80% of the people never contracted the virus. 331 were asymptomatic and 381 symptomatic. Of the 381 who showed symptoms, 37 required intensive care and recovered and 9 died. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e3.htm BobRyan

The USS Theodore Roosevelt has a crew of approximately 4800. Of this, according to several recent reports, about 1100 have tested positive. Let's err on the side of caution and move it to 1200 crew-members, which means 25% of a population in close contact on a daily basis have gotten the virus and 75% have not gotten it, nor will they. Of that 25%, 1 sailor has died. If this were influenza, you would have a lot more than 25% contract the virus and certainly have more than 1 death. BobRyan

JVL @ 54 You ask what data I'm using to say Sweden appears to have reached herd immunity. Using a source you seem to enjoy using, I put a link below to show Sweden. About halfway down, you get the daily deaths. Their peak was reach on April 21, with 185 dead. If herd immunity has not started to happen, how are the death rates declining? https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ BobRyan

Jerry: I am not sure it does. It was written 6 weeks ago long before there was lots of good information. It was addressing the need to have further 'clinical' trials. That was what I was trying to address. Your take on the progression of a C19 infection seems reasonable. JVL

Just to make sure you don’t talk past each other: COVID-19 is the disease, SARS-CoV-2 is the virus.

Just to be accurate. Let's call someone who has been infected, as having had or has C19. The infection then takes on several possible paths in the body and one is to be defeated early by the immune system. Then there are those who exhibit mild symptoms and seem to come out the other end apparently unharmed as in a common cold. Then there are some who start exhibiting various serious symptoms and enter the hospital. Most here will survive but a significant percentage will not. Some of the effects of the virus are different between patients. For example, the virus just replicating unhindered creates a lot of junk in the cells and eventually kills them. This seems to happen a lot in the lungs. Then there are those patients whose blood epithelial cells are attacked and this causes blood clotting problems. So let's just say the infection produces various effects most of which are harmless. but some are lethal. It seems the solution to those who contract the virus, that the immune system is necessary to defeat it. Some interventions prevent or slow down the virus replicating and hopefully the immune system then can kill it. Then there are possible interventions that actually attack the virus out side the cell. There are probably more but we are quickly learning how it operates and how best to combat it. At any point while the virus is still active in the body the person can apparently infect others. After the virus has been killed, it is unlikely the person can still infect others and we believe that at this point is immune to further infections but we do not know for sure. I am sure t.his could be written more accurately. jerry

But I think this article will address your concerns

I am not sure it does. It was written 6 weeks ago long before there was lots of good information.

I can’t explain that data but that doesn’t make all the other data false either.

I din't say it made anything else false. It is an interesting piece of information about how deadly the virus is. This happened long before they were considering any treatment. jerry

Bob O'H: Just to make sure you don’t talk past each other: COVID-19 is the disease, SARS-CoV-2 is the virus. So someone who is asymptomatic would presumably be said to not have the disease. An excellent point!! I'm not sure BobRyan was making that distinction but I'm glad to be reminded of it. JVL

If someone does not have pneumonia like symptoms, it cannot be COVID-19. What about the asymptomatic people who have tested positive?

Just to make sure you don't talk past each other: COVID-19 is the disease, SARS-CoV-2 is the virus. So someone who is asymptomatic would presumably be said to not have the disease. Bob O'H

Jerry: I answered in great haste. But I think this article: https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/are-hydroxychloroquine-and-azithromycin-an-effective-treatment-for-covid-19/ will address your concerns. It's lengthy but does directly address the quality of data issue. From the author's point of view of course. But it must be fake news. No one is saying that. See what you think of the link just above. I'm not saying you'll agree with it but I think it presents the case for full-on clinical studies. And please note, the author is open minded enough to say "It's possible" that HCQ is efficacious. He just wants more data. So. the fact that so few on the Diamond Princess died is an indication of how lethal the virus is. Everyone on the ship was exposed to the virus. It would have been impossible to avoid it. I can't explain that data but that doesn't make all the other data false either. JVL

Asauber: Sure. And you didn’t answer my question. I do apologise. State it again and I'll have a go when I have the time. Just here for a few. JVL

BobRyan: JVL @ 34 shrugs off Sweden as an odd data point. One of the few countries who have gone about their business and treated this as any other virus. They are on the verge of herd immunity in Stockholm. I'm not sure that is true. What data set are you referencing? I think they've still got some ways to go. I'm not shrugging them off but there may be some confounding factor we're unaware of. What about the cruise ships? A much wider variation of people and they did not become floating morgues. Show me the data set you are referencing. You also shrug off more COVID-19 deaths in the US than have been total pneumonia deaths in the same country. COVID-19 attacks the lungs of a compromised human host. I'm not shrugging them off; I'm saying it's data that says COVID-19 is nasty. If you want to dispute the official stats then please be clear what exactly you are disputing. If someone does not have pneumonia like symptoms, it cannot be COVID-19. What about the asymptomatic people who have tested positive? How many are going to commit suicide, or have committed suicide due to doom and gloom? You spout science-fiction and spread a message of hopelessness. Hopelessness? Not even close. I'm proposing we follow the best available medical advice and AVOID unnecessary COVID-19 deaths. I know it's hard, I know it's boring, I know it can be really depressing. I live in the UK. During WWII the people of the UK put up with a lot worse than COVID-19. They struggled, a lot, but they persevered and they stood fast. And they won. I'm sure there were people who couldn't cope with bombings and blackouts and food rationing. It was hard, very hard. But they did it. Together we can win. There is hope. No one is saying otherwise. JVL

What about the cruise ships? A much wider variation of people and they did not become floating morgues.

I can tell you about cruise ships since I was on one when all this started in early March, actually a Princess cruise. The typical population is very old and many are in extremely bad health. The number of pounds overweight would add up to several hundred tons for the passengers. The crew is just the opposite, young and in good health and few that are over weight. So. the fact that so few on the Diamond Princess died is an indication of how lethal the virus is. Everyone on the ship was exposed to the virus. It would have been impossible to avoid it. jerry

"In fact, time to go for awhile. Sorry." Well, you know the old saying... "He who Trolls and runs away, lives to Troll another day." Andrew asauber

This is one article from the Science Based Medicine blog addressing the issue:

I went to this link and did not see any negative evidence. He points to Gorski who just says there is no positive evidence and criticizes Raoul as a charlatan. His conclusion

Low short-term risk, but completely uncertain efficacy

So no negative information as this author points to someone who calls Raoult a charlatan and uses of HCQ cult like and others as quacks. But there is positive information and lots of it. Is the American Association of Physicians and Surgeons a bunch of quacks? So can I call someone who doesn't point to the positive information but laces his comments with political hits a quack ? I can provide almost a hundred reports like this. https://bit.ly/2SJcHRU But it must be fake news. jerry

JVL, "As I’ve said several times" Sure. And you didn't answer my question. Andrew asauber

JVL @ 34 shrugs off Sweden as an odd data point. One of the few countries who have gone about their business and treated this as any other virus. They are on the verge of herd immunity in Stockholm. What about the cruise ships? A much wider variation of people and they did not become floating morgues. You also shrug off more COVID-19 deaths in the US than have been total pneumonia deaths in the same country. COVID-19 attacks the lungs of a compromised human host. If someone does not have pneumonia like symptoms, it cannot be COVID-19. How many are going to commit suicide, or have committed suicide due to doom and gloom? You spout science-fiction and spread a message of hopelessness. BobRyan

Asauber: I didn’t comment this. Yes, sorry. I'm rushing too much. In fact, time to go for awhile. Sorry. JVL

Asauber: Who is being honest and how can you tell if they are being honest? Anyone specific in mind As I've said several times: if you have access to better data please so state because I'd like to have that as well. I appreciate that you want to be sure but you've provided no alternative that you consider more accurate. JVL

JVL, "Asauber: Maybe you would like to share them with us because I haven’t seen any especially when used with zinc. Please don’t reference the VA report which was not relevant." I didn't comment this. Andrew asauber

Asauber: Maybe you would like to share them with us because I haven’t seen any especially when used with zinc. Please don’t reference the VA report which was not relevant. Dr Steven Novella for one on his blog and podcast This is one article from the Science Based Medicine blog addressing the issue: https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/hydroxychloroquine-retinal-toxicity-and-covid-19/ (It references other posts which may be of more interest but I'll leave it to you to peruse the site.) As usual, you can search PubMed for articles like this: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32363212 https://www.drugs.com/medical-answers/hydroxychloroquine-effective-covid-19-3536024/ https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200422/Is-hydroxychloroquine-effective-against-COVID-19.aspx This article explains clearly what was wrong with some of the early studies: https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/are-hydroxychloroquine-and-azithromycin-an-effective-treatment-for-covid-19/ (If you're only going to read one article I'd read this last one.) Perhaps I shouldn't have said articles as many of the opinions I've heard were expressed live on BBC Radio 4 or during one of their many news broadcasts. And I didn't think to write them all down so that I could find them again!! Then there's this from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_drug_repurposing_research#Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine

Chloroquine is an anti-malarial medication that is also used against some auto-immune diseases. On 18 March, the WHO announced that chloroquine and the related hydroxychloroquine would be among the four drugs studied as part of the Solidarity clinical trial.[10] On 19 March, President Donald Trump encouraged the use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine during a national press conference. These endorsements led to massive increases in public demand for the drugs [11]. New York governor Andrew Cuomo announced that New York State trials of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine would begin on 24 March.[12] On 28 March, the FDA authorized the use of hydroxychloroquine sulfate and chloroquine phosphate under an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA).[13] The treatment has not been approved by the FDA's clinical trials process and is authorized under the EUA only as an experimental treatment for emergency use in patients who are hospitalized but are not able to receive treatment in a clinical trial.[14][15] The CDC has said that "the use, dosing, or duration of hydroxychloroquine for prophylaxis or treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection" are not yet established.[16] Doctors have said they are using the drug when "there's no other option".[17] On 9 April, the National Institutes of Health began the first clinical trial to assess whether hydroxychloroquine is safe and effective to treat COVID?19.[17][18] On 12 April, a preliminary clinical trial conducted at a hospital in Brazil was stopped when several people given high doses of chloroquine for COVID?19 infection developed irregular heart rates, causing eleven deaths.[19][20] According to Johns Hopkins' ABX Guide for COVID?19, "HCQ may cause prolonged QT, and caution should be used in critically ill COVID?19 patients who may have cardiac dysfunction or if combined with other drugs that cause QT prolongation".[21] There are several studies underway on prophylactic use of chloroquine, especially in healthcare workers and their families. A Turkish research team in Istanbul is conducting a small study on the use of chloroquine in combination with zinc, vitamin A, vitamin C and vitamin D.[22] Large studies are underway at Duke University and the University of Oxford. NYU Langone Medical School is conducting a trial on the safety and efficacy of preventative use of hydroxychloroquine.[23] On April 24 the FDA cautioned against using the drug outside a hospital setting or clinical trial after reviewing case reports filed in the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System database and data from other sources. The adverse effects reported included ventricular tachycardia, ventricular fibrillation and in some cases death.[24] (Sorry for not stripping the reference numbers out, I'm a bit tight on time just now.)

JVL

Most of the deaths are taking place in long term care facilities and this includes nursing home. Here is a headline from a local newspaper in New Hampshire

More Than Three In Four N.H. COVID Deaths Occurred In Long-Term Care Homes

You can find similar reports everywhere. For example here is a headline about Europe

As many as half of Europe's COVID-19 deaths were people in long-term care facilities

https://bit.ly/2A5TdAD And in the US https://bit.ly/3fkvIE9 But no coverage of Texas nursing home of success in fighting the virus https://bit.ly/2A523i5 So maybe people should check. their sources for information. Here are liberals in US criticizing the press which is extremely liberal for fake news on this topic. https://bit.ly/2Wa9f59 jerry

"I happen to think that the virus is worth fighting and I also think that you have to be honest with people about what is happening. " JVL, Who is being honest and how can you tell if they are being honest? Anyone specific in mind? Andrew asauber

Asauber: The nastiness of the virus ranges from death to nothing happens symptomatically. Yup. It’s not known what the accuracy of the numbers are. Testing is haphazard. The cause of death attribution is an opinion. Efficacy of treatments is in dispute. How accurate do you think they have to be before people have to start making decisions about things like lockdowns, spending money on testing, closing the borders, etc? I'm pretty sure I heard someone hear praise President Trump for closing down flights from China pretty quickly. And that was when there were very, very few cases in the US. Do you think he made the right call? Meanwhile, virus scoreboards, political posturing, virtue signalling and scaring children is the new normal. Sounds a little loosey-goosey to me. Maybe. I happen to think that the virus is worth fighting and I also think that you have to be honest with people about what is happening. I know the numbers are not perfect but they are what we've got. In 1918 the US government decided to tone down the Spanish flu warnings because of WWI. One US senator or representative was even jailed for wanting to talk about it in public contrary to a law that was passed. Some cities didn't buy the feel good vibe and locked down. Those cities had a better and faster rebound economically that those that did little or nothing. These are tough times, there is no best solution; we're just going to have to make it up as we go along using the best data we can get our hands on at the time. JVL

No, I’m not mocking. I have read articles by several physicians that expressed the opinion that the frequently sited work in favour of HCQ is weak;

Maybe you would like to share them with us because I haven't seen any especially when used with zinc. Please don't reference the VA report which was not relevant. I can cite many positive. For example https://bit.ly/3foXqzB jerry

"It’s a nasty virus!" Back to my point, and in agreement with ET @36. The nastiness of the virus ranges from death to nothing happens symptomatically. It's not known what the accuracy of the numbers are. Testing is haphazard. The cause of death attribution is an opinion. Efficacy of treatments is in dispute. Meanwhile, virus scoreboards, political posturing, virtue signalling and scaring children is the new normal. Sounds a little loosey-goosey to me. Andrew asauber

Jerry: Is this more mocking? All the evidence is positive to date. About half of deaths or more are in nursing home but the nursing home that implemented the cure had one death. No, I'm not mocking. I have read articles by several physicians that expressed the opinion that the frequently sited work in favour of HCQ is weak; their opinion not mine. AND, if the FDA and CDC and the US government were sure why are there ongoing clinical trials? It seems like the evidence isn't as clear cut as some think. Well, let's just say it's not clear cut to a lot of people who make the decisions. We'll see! True, but for those with inadequate immune systems the progression is not pretty. So it is not normal in that for most it is mild or less but for a small percentage it is literally deadly and not benign. You could say the same of the seasonal flu couldn't you? But COVID-19 seems to take it up a step or two. JVL

ET: It’s such a nasty virus that many people don’t even know they have it! Nasty for some anyway! I suspect the really big epidemiological studies trying to figure out why it has had such varying effects are already beginning. JVL

We’ll see if the ‘cure’ really is efficacious after the clinical trials have finished.

Is this more mocking? All the evidence is positive to date. About half of deaths or more are in nursing home but the nursing home that implemented the cure had one death.

It’s such a nasty virus that many people don’t even know they have it!

True, but for those with inadequate immune systems the progression is not pretty. So it is not normal in that for most it is mild or less but for a small percentage it is literally deadly and not benign. We are not used to such a wide spread disease with such properties. In previous times the diseases with such deadly outcomes hit the general population hard and just as quick. My great grandfather died of what was called consumption or what is now called Tuberculosis and so did two of his children, not my grandmother however. jerry

It's such a nasty virus that many people don't even know they have it! ET

Asauber: There is a cure but it was mocked and not widely used. What would the number of dead be if the cure was implemented? Maybe 90% less, maybe even less? We'll see if the 'cure' really is efficacious after the clinical trials have finished. JVL

BobRyan: How can there be more COVID-19 deaths than pneumonia deaths? It's a nasty virus! And it's a real risk. According to World of Meters site you use, Sweden should be showing far more dead. They have not shut down anything. They have a population of just over 10,000,000, yet have not even reached 3000 dead. That odd data point does not make the data incorrect. It means there's something else about how Sweden is handling the problem that we don't fully understand. Or maybe they're just more genetically immune? I'm sure someone will be trying to figure that out! You ask how many more would have died had we not locked things down? Which you choose not to answer. I agree there are side-effects of the lockdowns and I'm very glad I'm not the one making the call because the is no good solution. I don't have an answer but I'm trying to stay up with the data. JVL

Asauber: I’m not sure what it is you are trying to accomplish, repeatedly regurgitating numbers that you admittedly know nothing about. If you've got a better source I'd be happy to look at it! JVL

Question? Were most of the dead from C19 unnecessary? There is a cure but it was mocked and not widely used. What would the number of dead be if the cure was implemented? Maybe 90% less, maybe even less? Would everyone be going about their normal lives by now if the cure was implemented? Would we be having these inane discussions over the exact numbers where we ignore the obvious canary because the canary has been given the cure and no one in the press reported it? jerry

BobRyan, Your comment points to the heart of the matter. A Covid-19 Death is a qualified *opinion*. Are the proverbial Second Opinions ever asked for in these cases? All of this is loosesy-goosey from the get go. As with Climate Change, I suspect there is more than pure science and/or medicine in the presentation of Covid-19 related numbers. In fact, it's pretty obvious to anyone who hasn't bought into the hype, hook, line, and sinker. Andrew asauber

JVL states that 72,000 Americans have died of COVID-19. The most recent numbers from the CDC show 67,372 total Pneumonia deaths. Pneumonia is quick to diagnose and there is not much lag. COVID-19 attacks the lungs of an already compromised system, which causes a shortness of breath in severe cases. How can there be more COVID-19 deaths than pneumonia deaths? https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm According to World of Meters site you use, Sweden should be showing far more dead. They have not shut down anything. They have a population of just over 10,000,000, yet have not even reached 3000 dead. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ You cling to the belief that science-fiction is based on fact. You ignore real science, which is what herd immunity is. You ask how many more would have died had we not locked things down? How many more suicides have there been? How many more women and children have been beaten to death? How many have died alone? How many are too frightened of COVID-19 to go to the hospital and will suffer long-term problems? How many do not know if they will have a job a month from now? How many do not know how they are going to feed their families? How many do not know if they are going to keep their houses or apartments? You focus on COVID-19, while ignoring the suffering of far more. BobRyan

JVL, Thanks for the response, but your Part A "I find them in fairly good agreement with other sources and I find their presentation easy to use and explore" doesn't speak at all to the quality of the data. Your part B "I acknowledge they may be in error" Speaks to your ignorance of the quality of the data. I'm not sure what it is you are trying to accomplish, repeatedly regurgitating numbers that you admittedly know nothing about. Andrew asauber

Asauber: Are you treating worldometers numbers as Gospel again? I already answered that. I reference them because I find them in fairly good agreement with other sources and I find their presentation easy to use and explore. But I acknowledge they may be in error. If you've got a better source of data then please state it and I will check it out. JVL

JVL, Are you treating worldometers numbers as Gospel again? You kind of say you aren't but then you plaster them all over UD like they are. Are you confused as to what position you actually hold? Andrew asauber

BobRyan: The world has yet to reach 300,000 COVID-19 deaths. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ puts it at over 258,000 as of May 6th. Same with ourworldindata.org/coronavirus. Over 500,000 people die every year from influenza, yet influenza is rarely called a pandemic. That's 500,000 over a whole year, yes? COVID-19 has been a problem for about four months. 2 seasons ago it did reach a pandemic level, which resulted in over 80,000 Americans dying. Over 72,000 COVID-19 deaths in the US as of May 6th. The first confirmed US case was in late January. A pandemic is defined as a disease outbreak that spreads across countries or continents. It affects more people and takes more lives than an epidemic. I don't think the numbers or the death rates have anything to do with the designation pandemic vs epidemic. The idea that any government had to do something is nothing more than encouraging science-fiction. It was clear the projections were wrong before a single state or country shut down business and started quarantining en mass. Rather than letting cooler heads prevail, which is what happened in the past with other viruses, the government used the fear to destroy much of the global economy Do you think the number of deaths would have been higher if there had been no lockdowns? Would there have been half-again as many deaths by now? Twice as many? All the health care professionals I have heard in the news say this is NOT comparable to seasonal flu; it's worse. Left unchecked a lot more people would have died by now including a lot more doctors and nurses. How much do you think lives are worth? If the health care system crumbled and was unable to deal with all the other cases that are 'normal' would that have been good for the economy? JVL

Kairosfocus: See Our World in Data, Covid-19 page https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus I think that was the one I was trying to remember! A very good page I think. JVL

The world has yet to reach 300,000 COVID-19 deaths. Even when all pneumonia deaths are used, which is where they get the number for over 60,000 Americans, it has not reached the level of an average influenza season. Over 500,000 people die every year from influenza, yet influenza is rarely called a pandemic. 2 seasons ago it did reach a pandemic level, which resulted in over 80,000 Americans dying. A pandemic is defined as a disease outbreak that spreads across countries or continents. It affects more people and takes more lives than an epidemic. The average flu season does not rise to the level of pandemic. since it does not kill enough people. Projections based on China is the only reason it was expected to become a pandemic, which has not happened. The projections were clearly wrong. The idea that any government had to do something is nothing more than encouraging science-fiction. It was clear the projections were wrong before a single state or country shut down business and started quarantining en mass. Rather than letting cooler heads prevail, which is what happened in the past with other viruses, the government used the fear to destroy much of the global economy. How many factories in China have been shut down? BobRyan

See Our World in Data, Covid-19 page https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus kairosfocus

Upright BiPed: you are mistaken, I have never reference you to any site whatsoever. Must have been Bornagain77 then. It was a really good site for keeping up with COVID-19 numbers. JVL

. JVL, you are mistaken, I have never reference you to any site whatsoever. If you will recall, my exchange with you had only to do with the physical conditions surrounding self-replication. Upright BiPed

Then there's stories like this . . . do we take this seriously?

The United States is expected to see about 200,000 new COVID-19 cases per day by June 1, with daily deaths hitting 3,000, a leaked Trump administration document shows.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/us-projects-200000-new-covid-19-cases-per-day-3000-daily-deaths-by-june/ JVL

Asauber: So you are defending your religious belief in Worldometers by calling into question any number at all? No, I am merely pointing out that we have no real guarantee that any of the number we read are incredibly accurate. Aside from many asymptomatic cases not being reported at all and many deaths not being linked to COVID-19 and many deaths mistakenly attributed to COVID-19 there are bound to be reporting errors and lags in the systems. And different countries have different methods for determining which deaths are linked to COVID-19. A year from now we'll have much better values to analyse but we've got some now that hopefully are pretty good. I think sites like Worldometers are useful in that they compile a lot of information in one place that's fairly accessible and easy to look at. But I never repeat any of their numbers without giving a proper reference knowing that some other site might disagree. I would trust them over the values that BobRyan reported above because his seemed quite a ways off from every other source I've heard. There was another site that Upright BiPed or Bornagain77 referenced that looked very good but I've forgotten what it was!! JVL

"How do we know any numbers are accurate?" JVL, So you are defending your religious belief in Worldometers by calling into question any number at all? Andrew asauber

Asauber: How do we know the Worldometers numbers are accurate? How do we know any numbers are accurate? I have noticed that the Worldometers' values for the UK are usually fairly close to the official UK government ones if that means anything. There is a page on the Worldometers' site that addresses where they get their values from. JVL

"According to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ as of today, May 5th, in the US there were/are: 69,925 COVID-19 deaths 955,017 Active cases" How do we know the Worldometers numbers are accurate? Andrew asauber

BobRyan: According to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ as of today, May 5th, in the US there were/are: 69,925 COVID-19 deaths 955,017 Active cases I don't know why their data would be so much different from what you observed at the CDC . . . how often do they update their displayed data? JVL

BO'H: Once pandemic spread without broad spectrum antivirals being on the table, large numbers of deaths were unavoidable. That's why the world fought so hard to contain Ebola (which may yet break out). We face Covid-19. We have fought to keep from having medical facilities overwhelmed. HCQ cocktails have been championed and are in spreading use. Other treatments are coming, there is some hope of a vaccine. We have been forced to lockdowns, knowing that such are unsustainable as the havoc could trigger depression and widespread death. So, we HAVE to find a way to ease the clampdown. That points to treatments, sustainable distancing and protection [masks], stronger measures for known vulnerable groups such as the elderly and those with preconditions. Commerce, industry, transportation, government and services HAVE to re open soon, or the "cure" may be worse than the disease. KF kairosfocus

Fasteddious - what you're suggesting is essentially the model the UK started with, and which Sweden is following. The problem is that it still means a lot of deaths: many of those young people will become infected, and some will die. And some will visit the elderly, or have to work with them, and will pass the virus into nursing homes. So unless, like Tammie Lee Haynes, you want to (essentially) imprison nursing home workers, what you're suggesting will not be very effective. Bob O'H

Barry,I honestly couldn't have told you to the governer of California was before reading your comment. I don't think I've ever commented on any political issue here (apart from saying the ysfunctional plotics of the US fills me with dred for my American friends). orthomyxo

As had been pointed out a number of times, most people who die from influenza do not have flu named on their death certificate (partly because most are not tested for flu). This is why the number of flu deaths is always given as a range, estimated from excess mortality in winter and the proportion of deaths ascribed to pneumonia. This year is not very different from others in the total number of deaths assigned directly to flu in the CDC numbers. The CDC covid-19 total runs behind other counters because it is collated from death certificates, not deaths reported by regional public health authorities. It takes (at least) several weeks to do this collating. orthomyxo

The CDC model is off. It only shows 5886 influenza deaths this year. Influenza is deadlier than this and kills 56,000 Americans on average every year. Deaths with Pneumonia and COVID-19 is listed as 17,122, which is what happens when someone has a severe reaction to COVID-19. It targets the lungs on a weakened human. It lists the total COVID-19 deaths as 38,576, which is less than influenza's average. Influenza deaths should be around 30,000 by this time of the year. You cannot have that kind of drop in influenza numbers. There is no way less than 6000 Americans have been killed this year from influenza. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR0wfA4zAAtfKDpq6BwMN0I5XP7VR21rzO_q2kc5ZNPMVka2u3OywD9LJB8 BobRyan

Fasteddious

This suggests that the rules for these two groups should be quite different. The younger people should get back to normal life while staying away from old people.

Exactly. This is what I said in a post on April 26:

History will record the one-size-fits-all economy-destroying COVID-19 lockdown of 2020 as one of the most colossal public policy blunders in the history of the world.

Meanwhile, orthomyxo's hero, lockem-down-or-lockem-up California Governor Gavin Newsom thinks the answer is to make criminals out of young healthy people who want to got to the beach.

Barry Arrington

Analysing the COVID-19 data for Ontario and Quebec up to May 3, one finds some startling statistics: - 90% of the people who have died so far from COVID-19 were over 70 years old - around 75% of the people who have died were residents in long-term-care facilities - people over 80 years old with COVID-19 have a 22% chance of dying from (or with?) it - an 85 year old with COVID-19 is more than 200X likely to die from it than a 30 year old. Clearly, COVID-19 divides the population into low risk (younger) and high risk (old or chronically ill) populations. This suggests that the rules for these two groups should be quite different. The younger people should get back to normal life while staying away from old people. The old people should self-isolate and be very careful until a proven vaccine becomes available. Those between 50 and 70 can decide for themselves which population they belong to. Fasteddious

Tammie Lee Haynes: You do NOT need universal testing to determine the number of people infected. You just need a few competent scientists, using polling methods. That's assuming the average person is competent diagnosing themselves! That's especially a problem considering how many infected people are asymptomatic. But being asymptomatic does not mean they can't infect someone else. Require staff to live in the nursing home (or in a room at similarly quarantined hotel), working 70 hour weeks Monitor them with an ankle bracelet. Fire them if they leave the quarantine, even once. Why would the staff member accept this? You pay them a fat bonus of, say, $10,000 for each month they comply. Fat bonuses, that’s how you get guys to work in Saudi. Would you work in a nursing home with those conditions? What if you had a couple of young children? Can anyone explain why our Public Health Scientists haven’t recommended them? Violations of current labour laws? JVL

You do NOT need universal testing to determine the number of people infected. You just need a few competent scientists, using polling methods. Take a presidential election The gallup poll can predict the vote, within 3%, by sampling 800 people. They did that in 2016, and said that Mrs Clinton would get 53%. She got 51%. Plus or minus 2 or 3%. If that's not good enough to understand how many got infected, pleae tell us why? TAMMIE LEE HAYNES

Meaning, 0.08 percent and 0.1 percent of those states’ populations were infected. California’s death-per-infected rate: 3.8 percent, Florida’s: 3.1 percent, with an equally small percentage of each state’s population having died, less than 0.005 percent.

In the absence of universal testing having been carried out for some time we just don't really know how many are infected but asymptomatic or only mildly symptomatic, so these statistics are very suspect. It appears that the true deaths per infected rates must be considerably lower. If this reasoning is correct, as time goes on the rates should decline, as a higher and higher percentage of the states' populations are tested. The aspect of this that is most alarming is whatever the statistic is that measures the deaths per infection rate for the elderly with compromised immune systems and preexisting heart and lung conditions (those with such conditions are a large percentage of them). This death per infection rate is many times that for the younger and healthier, so COVID-19 can be seen as the revenge of Darwinist evolutionary forces on the weak and unfit who up to now have been artificially protected from the ravages of the natural order. They are being culled out. It appears that the stay-at-home and social distancing policies can only be a short-term alleviation of the process. It only postpones the inevitable, the eventual infection of the great majority of the population, including the elderly, and the consequent selective decimation of the most unfit elderly. The only things that may partially alleviate this savage and inevitable process is development and wide-scale application of therapeutic drugs that lessen the severity of the cytokyne storm mechanism, and/or an effective vaccine. Given the inept and hide-bound response so far in this country (in terms of the protocols used in clinical care especially pre-hospitalization), the chances of that don't seem very great. doubter

Most of the deaths are with old people, especially those in nursing homes. Two suggestions. 1) Follow South Dakota's lead. Their restaurants never closed. They only mandated "stay at home" , for people over 65. Its silly to quarantine those who are at little risk. 2) Keep coronavirus out of nursing homes, intelligently How? Don't let infected people in. Even today, staff members commute daily from the community. In New York and Boston, by subway. The CDC in its coronavirus guidelines and checklists for nursing homes mandates training in hand sanitizer use. But leaves the commuting of staff unmentioned. That's insane. How do you do it? Require staff to live in the nursing home (or in a room at similarly quarantined hotel), working 70 hour weeks Monitor them with an ankle bracelet. Fire them if they leave the quarantine, even once. Why would the staff member accept this? You pay them a fat bonus of, say, $10,000 for each month they comply. Fat bonuses, that's how you get guys to work in Saudi. Can anyone think of a problem with these suggestions? Can anyone explain why our Public Health Scientists haven't recommended them? TAMMIE LEE HAYNES

Simple explanation. The governors who are pushing hardest and longest for total war are total killers. They are enjoying this, and will not stop their own enjoyment voluntarily. polistra

I suspect that some of the difference is medical community culture and how willing and able someone is to record or report a cause of death as Corona-19 vs Something Else. It probably ranges from haphazard to inconsistent to stingy and everything else in between and beyond. Its not like there is a sensor to detect Cause of Death. To relate this to Climate Change, it reminds me of manually recording temperatures. After the fact, you 'll be able to read whatever you want into the numbers and adjust up or down. The Dog's Breakfast of Science these days. Andrew asauber

And then we see this - CDC site United States 37,308 Covid deaths as of May 1 https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR0wfA4zAAtfKDpq6BwMN0I5XP7VR21rzO_q2kc5ZNPMVka2u3OywD9LJB8 buffalo