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HeKS continues to suggest a way forward on the KS “bomb” argument

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Last week, one of my comments relating to the KS “bomb” argument was made the subject of an OP, which can be found here.

In that comment, I had offered a few preliminary thoughts on Keith’s argument (originally found here, and summarized by him here) and asked a few questions to better understand the assumptions informing his argument. Unfortunately, the issues raised in my OP comment, as far I can tell, were never actually addressed. Instead, the ‘responses’ in the ensuing conversation revolved almost entirely around what the participating ID proponents considered obviously false analogies, which invoked “Planetary Angels”, “Rain Fairies”, “Salt Leprechauns”, and “Toilet Whales”.

Regarding these analogies, Keith, Zachriel, and other ID opponents, seemed to be arguing as though ID claims a designing agent is necessary to explain the shape/pattern of the ‘Objective Nested Hierarchy’ (ONH) into which living organisms are claimed to fall, when the production of  an ONH can be explained by a natural, unguided process of branching descent.  Thus, they claimed, there is no difference between the ID position and one that claims planets are moving in elliptical orbits because angels are choosing to push them around in such orbits, or one that claims salt falls from a salt shaker into a pile on the table because the falling salt is being guided by invisible leprechauns who like making salt piles. The idea here is that in each case we have some superfluous explanatory entity being posited to directly guide some process that looks exactly like it is not being guided, does not need to be guided, and is explained perfectly well by law-based processes.

During the course of the thread it was pointed out to them innumerable times that, even granting the existence of an ONH for life, ID does not and would not cite the shape or production of such an ONH as being an example of something that requires an explanation by reference to an intelligent cause. Rather, in identifying the need for an intelligent cause to explain certain aspects of biology, ID points to the evident infusion of significant amounts of biological information into the world of life, as well as the novel introduction of complex, functionally-specified biological systems and molecular machines. In other words, for its evidence, ID points to aspects of life that do not seem obviously explicable by reference to purely natural processes, whether stochastic or law-based, but that do contain hallmarks that we habitually and uniquely associate with conscious, intelligent, intentional activity. In yet other words, the previously mentioned analogies to “Planetary Angels” and “Salt Leprechauns” are horribly and obviously misguided and entirely off the mark.

Unfortunately, the distinction never seemed to get through to them. And even more unfortunately, the thread was eventually derailed and shut down while a number of conversations were still in progress. Aspects of the discussion, however, continued here.

In that new thread, the Rain Fairies, the Salt Leprechauns, and their most recent common ancestor, the Plantary Angels, have again reared their head, being invoked in response to the objection from ID proponents to the description of microevolution as being “unguided”. The point of the ID proponents in this case relates quite closely to one of the claims in Keith’s so-called “bomb” argument, with which I myself took issue in the previously mentioned OP. In Keith’s summary of his argument, he says that even “the most rabid IDer” admits that “unguided evolution” exists, with the ultimate intention of extrapolating what ID proponents admit happens into what they say does not happen.

Now, when Keith refers to “unguided evolution” here, he is referring to the relatively minor microevolutionary changes that take place within a population, but on the view of ID proponents, these are not the kind of phenomena that could, even in principle, be extrapolated to account for the macroevolutionary innovations that would be necessary to account for the full content of the alleged ONH “Tree of Life”. And in taking issue with the characterization of microevolution as “unguided”, the ID proponent is taking issue with the fact that a phrase that might be uncontroversially applied to a subset of these phenomena is, within the context of Keith’s argument, being over-generalized in a way that implicitly suggests an acceptance by ID proponents of propositions they do not actually accept, and so is a case of illegitimately stealing ground en route to the argument’s conclusion.

In addition to my comments in the original OP, I expanded on them somewhat in a recent comment, which I’ll duplicate here to fill out the remainder of this post and hopefully spur further discussion.

From here:

Now, when it comes to this business of proving that microevolution is unguided, I think there needs to be an understanding of what it would even mean to suggest that it is “guided”. I’m reasonably certain that the majority of people who would dispute claims that microevolution is unguided do not mean that a designer is actively, in the moment, effecting a specific microevolutionary change. Nor would they dispute that random mutations happen. Rather, they would likely dispute that all mutations are random. And they would also likely argue (as I did in the previous thread) that the constrained allowance for – and even rapid increased initiation of – mutations and general genetic and epigenetic changes are a purposeful aspect of the design of organisms to allow for diversification and adaptation (which is sometimes very rapid). If the random variation or shuffling is too large, however, it kills the organism, makes it sterile, or at the very least reduces its reproductive potential, decreasing the chances that the significant defect will be passed on or largely affect subsequent generations of a population.

In other words, the argument is not that random mutations allowing microevolution look unguided but are actually being directly manipulated by some designer. Rather, the argument is that 1) the RM/NS mechanism is a constrained feature of organismal design, and that the Neo-Darwinists are looking at a design feature of a system that makes use of randomization and illegitimately extrapolating it to explain the entire system itself; and 2) that not all mutations/changes are random at all, but some are internally directed in a purposeful manner for the benefit of the organism.

So, it seems to me that, from an ID perspective, saying something like, ‘even IDists admit unguided evolution exists’, is either A) a case of making a trivial claim that cannot be legitimately extrapolated from the kinds of microevolutionary changes that are seen (overwhelmingly degrading genetic information and/or narrowing genetic variability; breaking or blunting existing biological function for a net fitness gain) to the kinds of macroevolutionary innovations that are theorized (the introduction of complex, functionally-specified systems and molecular machines), or B) a case of making an unwarranted and unsubstantiated claim that the system that allows for and makes use of the RM/NS mechanism for the benefit and diversification of the organism does so by fluke, in a way that is fully unconstrained, and is itself undesigned; or C) both.

Of course, as I’ve said numerous times before, I think this is only one of many issues with Keith’s argument, but it has become quite clear that it is difficult to get even just one criticism seriously addressed in a comment thread, so it would likely be useless to draw in any others at this point. I’m hoping that the nonsensical false analogies about Rain Fairies and Planetary Angels can be left to the side to allow for some kind of substantive discussion of the issues, but I’ve been given little reason to suspect that my hope is grounded.

 

Comments
keiths:
Think, Phinehas.
I am thinking. In particular, I am thinking you just moved the goalposts.
The ONH is real. If a Designer is responsible, then he/she/it decided over and over and over again not to wreck the ONH. Millions of times.
No, no, no. If a designer is responsible, then it is possible that he/she/it decided over and over and over again not to wreck the ONH. It is also (equally?) possible that he/she/it did not have the capability to decide such a thing or was never presented with such a choice, and so, did not decide over and over and over again not to wreck the ONH. We just established this, didn't we?Phinehas
November 24, 2014
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Unguided evolution cannot explain an ONH so keith s is either totally ignorant, very stupid or very dishonest.Joe
November 24, 2014
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Phinehas: You mean like convergent evolution?
Keith: Definitely not. I am talking about complicated features with the same genotype being inserted in parallel into many different branches of the tree.
Well, in bats and whales, convergence in echolocation ability runs all the way down to the genotype and needless to say they are different branches of the tree. If you want more examples, check this out. The latest example is the independent evolution of echolocation in mammals such as bats and whales. Such convergence has been known for some time now, but now it is observed at the molecular level as well. As the paper explains, “convergence is not a rare process restricted to several loci but is instead widespread”. As one evolutionist admitted, “These results imply that convergent molecular evolution is much more widespread than previously recognized”. And another admitted that the results are astonishing: We had expected to find identical changes in maybe a dozen or so genes but to see nearly 200 is incredible. We know natural selection is a potent driver of gene sequence evolution, but identifying so many examples where it produces nearly identical results in the genetic sequences of totally unrelated animals is astonishing.Box
November 24, 2014
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Phinehas:
Because it is also perfectly possible (and just as likely?) for the ONH not to be wrecked at any point in time? Seriously, I get that you think you have a point, but I have no idea what it is. It doesn’t appear to be any more interesting than: the designer might decide to wreck the ONH or the designer might not. OK.
Think, Phinehas. The ONH is real. If a Designer is responsible, then he/she/it decided over and over and over again not to wreck the ONH. Millions of times. Humans routinely wreck ONHs. Why doesn't your designer? Why does your designer mimic unguided evolution all the time? I have an explanation for why we see the ONH. What's yours?keith s
November 24, 2014
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William:
Phineas,
It's Phinehas, with an 'h'.
Now ask him if unguided evolution could wreck the ONH signal at any time :)
The answer is no. That's why the absence of such phenomena supports unguided evolution and undermines ID.keith s
November 24, 2014
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Quest, Your question is off-topic. We are discussing my "bomb" argument in this thread.keith s
November 24, 2014
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Phineas, Now ask him if unguided evolution could wreck the ONH signal at any time :)William J Murray
November 24, 2014
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keiths:
My argument is that unguided evolution explains the ONH trillions of times better than design.
If you dropped "unguided" and "trillions of times" I might be inclined to agree with you. If you supported "unguided" and "trillions of times" I also might be inclined to agree with you. So far, you seem awfully reluctant to do either, and so I am not inclined to agree with you.Phinehas
November 24, 2014
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Keith s, I think you have omitted my question...? Please tell me you have not done it deliberately.. That would be a shame or if you sent one of you pops to answer it for you...Quest
November 24, 2014
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Phinehas: You mean like convergent evolution? Convergence confounds the nested hierarchy, however, as Darwin pointed out "It is incredible that the descendants of two organisms, which had originally differed in a marked manner, should ever afterwards converge so closely as to lead to a near approach to identity throughout their whole organisation." Phinehas: Echolocation in bats and whales? Interesting case. The prestin gene is highly conserved in mammals. If you look at the sequence for prestin bats and whales seem to group more closely than they would when looking at other traits. But! But if you look only at synonym substitutions, it returns the standard phylogeny.Zachriel
November 24, 2014
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keiths:
Those are logically equivalent, so when I say “it is possible for the designer to do something that would completely wreck the ONH signal”, that is shorthand for either of the following: 1) the designer might have that capability, and we have no basis whatsoever for ruling it out; or 2) some of the possible designers have that capability, and we have no basis for ruling them out. Either way, it is possible for the ONH to be wrecked at any point in time. Why doesn’t it happen?
Because it is also perfectly possible (and just as likely?) for the ONH not to be wrecked at any point in time? Seriously, I get that you think you have a point, but I have no idea what it is. It doesn't appear to be any more interesting than: the designer might decide to wreck the ONH or the designer might not. OK.Phinehas
November 24, 2014
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Phinehas,
You mean like convergent evolution?
Definitely not. I am talking about complicated features with the same genotype being inserted in parallel into many different branches of the tree. Humans do similar things all the time. Satellite radios showed up in all sorts of vehicles at roughly the same time. Why doesn't your Designer ever do that? As I asked earlier: I have a good answer: the reason it doesn’t happen is because unguided evolution can’t do it. What is your answer?keith s
November 24, 2014
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re Keith at 21. 25 and the other thread: It seems keith is attempting some sort of diversionary narrative here, but I can't quite figure out what he hopes to accomplish via these links and quotes. By his tone, I would assume it's supposed to be derogatory towards me in some way, but I don't see how - it just seems completely unrelated.William J Murray
November 24, 2014
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logically_speaking #30, If you don't learn how nested hierarchies are actually inferred, you will never understand what's being debated here. Don't you realize how silly it is to argue that the ONH isn't real, when the molecular and morphological versions of Theobald's Figure 1 match perfectly out of 10^38 possibilities? That's 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 possibilities. You think that evolutionary biologists subjectively selected traits and markers that just happened to produce that stunning degree of match?keith s
November 24, 2014
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keiths:
For example, consider a designer who is guiding evolution. Let’s say the unfolding tree currently has fifty ‘twigs’. The designer decides to introduce a complex new trait into half of the twigs, scattered randomly across the tree. If you were trying to infer a nested hierarchy from the evidence of the twigs, you wouldn’t be able to make sense of the data. That’s because the method you use to infer the hierarchy assumes that complex traits don’t magically appear in different twigs at the same time.
You mean like convergent evolution? Echolocation in bats and whales? That sort of thing?Phinehas
November 24, 2014
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Phineas: Of course, no one is arguing that the nested hierarchy is better explained by a designer, are they? Case in point: logically_speaking: So intelligent design is an equally if not better explanation of nested hierarchies determined by “best fit” computer algorithms. Your claim was that observed nested hierarchies are not objective. We pointed out that independent statistical methods are used to determine the degree of fit. logically_speaking: No “we” don’t, hense the reason why you had a list and I had a completely different list. Our list encompassed wings, including the particular structure of the wings. Your list excluded mammary glands, bellows lungs, wings articulated by the phalanges, airfoil is skin not feathers, hair, three auditory ossicles, a single-boned dentary, not to mention the molecular evidence. There's no one who has ever studied anatomy that would classify bats with birds. logically_speaking: {modern classification} originally began with Carl Linnaeus who classified things using a design mindset without any evolutiony assertions. Linnaeus classified by best fit according to trait. He arrived at close to a best-fit objective nested hierarchy. logically_speaking: But when you have a theory that uses bad maths, circular reasoning and the assumptions can be shown to be wrong. Then the theory loses all credibility. Sure, but it's a weak argument that depends on the claim that generations of biologists, people who have used supercomputers to decode the genome, of using bad maths and circular reasoning. Einstein wasn't right because Newton was stupid or bad at maths. logically_speaking: I can use the exact methods and reasoning that Theobald uses and show how his methods fail. No. You could cherry-pick possibly, as you did with bat wings. That's not quite the same thing. Darwin covered this territory in 1859. logically_speaking: I am not saying that the classifications are in error You can't talk about whether they are in error or not unless the classification is objective. Otherwise, it's just a matter of taste or convenience. This is where you should be feeling a bit of cognitive dissonance. logically_speaking: There turns out to be 6 ways of arranging the cutlery in nested hierarchies That's right! But there's only one reasonable way to classify bats; placentals, mammals, amniotes, tetrapods, gnastostomes, vertebrates, craniates, chordates, bilaterian, metazoa, eukaryotes.Zachriel
November 24, 2014
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Zachriel:
The argument that a designer is superfluous to explaining the nested hierarchy is correct. The argument that the nested hierarchy is sufficient to rule out design is incorrect.
Zachriel, My argument is that unguided evolution explains the ONH trillions of times better than design. This, for all practical purposes, amounts to ruling out design, unless IDers can come up with countervailing evidence of equally lopsided strength. (And I've barely mentioned the other evidence against design.) You and I debated this two years ago. Interested onlookers can find our discussion on the original thread starting here. keiths:
The formation of the ONH therefore cannot be teased apart from the production of features exhibiting CSI.
Zachriel:
That is incorrect. The nested hierarchy is evident in non-adaptive features, such as synonymous substitutions.
No, it's correct. Note that I am not saying that non-adaptive features don't fit the ONH. They do, and they are important. I am saying that the production of supposedly CSI-rich features cannot be teased apart from the production of the ONH. keiths:
If ID is true, then the designer is fully involved, by intent or by limitation, in the production of the ONH.
Zachriel:
Planting a tree hardly constitutes being “fully involved”.
As I've stressed several times, my argument does not depend on a naturalistic account of OOL. It is about what happens after OOL, which is explained far, far better by unguided evolution than by ID.keith s
November 24, 2014
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Zachriel:
Phinehas: Instead, as HeKS has put it Z: What you quoted doesn’t say anything about the nested hierarchy or branching descent.
Exactly. That was the point. No one is arguing that the nested hierarchy is better explained by a designer. They are arguing that lots of other things are better explained by a designer, as HeKS points out.
Phinehas: Do you mean that it doesn’t make design a trillion times less likely? Z: No. It makes “special creation” trillions of times less likely. Branching descent is strongly supported.
I'm also not seeing anyone arguing for "special creation." Are you suggesting that this is what keiths is arguing against? Because that might explain a few things. ID != special creationPhinehas
November 24, 2014
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And now the objective nested hierarchy test. Let’s make things really easy and basic. The pile of cutlery contains, knives, forks and spoons. These will be classified as the functions. The materials shall be wood, plastic and metal. Finally the sizes shall be categorised as small, medium and large. I mention all this so that you may repeat the experiment if you wish. I am concentrating on the end product here and presenting a very simple table of the results. Now because of how basic the nested hierarchies can be we are able to see ALL of the possible outcomes. There turns out to be 6 ways of arranging the cutlery in nested hierarchies, these are from the bottom up; 1. Material < size < function 2. Material < function < size 3. Function < size < material 4. Function < material < size 5. Size < function < material 6. Size < material < function Because we can see ALL of the trees, statistical analysis will be worthless because in this case all of the nests are equally "correct". However lets now throw some evolutionists in to the experiment. These evolutionists assume that the cutlery was changed over time by the manufacturers of the cutlery, there job is to find out the order of decent. (This is the assumption of common decent) The evolutionists decide that because the functions of the cutlery are what determines how they are used today, must mean that function should be placed at the ends of each tree. (This is the subjective consensus of which traits are more important than others) Also there are only 4 scientists that can only do one tree each. (This represents the limitations of resources in that not ALL possibilities can be accounted for in the history of life) Now the nests that the evolutionists make are these; 1. Material < size < function 2. Material < function < size 3. Function < size < material 4. Size < material < function As they have agreed that function should be placed at the ends of the trees, they come to the conclusion that some of the trees must be in error. Therefore they must use statistical analysis to provide the "best fit". The statistical analysis provides the best fit objective nested hierarchy as; Material < size < function. As must be obvious, this so called ONH is an illusion. Even though this example is very basic and I have deliberately limited certain things, the principles, reasoning and problems behind this expirement can be scaled up to the biological ONH. One thing is certain, for any statistical analysis to be of any value for "best fit", you must first know ALL of the possibilities available, not mearly most. Unfortunately for the objective nested hierarchy of life, subjectivity has sneaked in through the back door and the front door, and even through windows. One of the main reasons why we can generate a "fake" objective nested hierarchy on the tree of life, is that as Keith acknowledges, there are literally trillions of possibilities of how life developed. It is impossible to take all the possible outcomes into consideration when doing the statistical analysis on the tree of life.logically_speaking
November 24, 2014
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SteRusJon: With planetary orbits, none of us have any need to invoke fairies of any kind to explain the regularity we see. However, regarding evolution, there are some of us who see aspects of life that we cannot account for by means of filtered accidents. That is not quite the analogy. At one time there was no physical explanation of the highly complex motions of the planets. Angels were the posited explanation for this complex motion. The problem is that angels don't have testable entailments. It's only later, with the theory of gravity, that angels became superfluous, but the original problem concerning the lack of entailments was there even without a physical theory. SteRusJon: Since we cannot account for some aspects of life on an entirely naturalistic basis, we are justified to postulate as a possible cause a form intelligence having some properties that are similar to our own. In science, a hypothesis has to have testable entailments. What are the testable entailments of angels the postulated designer? SteRusJon: How is this any different than invoking an intelligence similar to our own to account for some aspects of life (and the cosmos) that are not explainable (for some of us) by the exclusively naturalistic causes? Because dark matter and dark energy are only placeholders for the observed effects. Scientists don't claim to understand them, but have proposed testable hypotheses, and are going about collecting data to test their hypotheses, such as with the SuperNova/Acceleration Probe. Meanwhile, ID claims to have the answers, deduce no entailments, and doesn't collect data that could test any entailments.Zachriel
November 24, 2014
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Woah sorry, I seem to be having issues with cut and paste my experiment got stuck in the middle of that somehow.logically_speaking
November 24, 2014
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OK just for my own completeness I will post my responses to zachriel from the closed thread, apologies to everyone else. After will be my ONH expirement, enjoy. Zachriel, logically_speaking: So intelligent design is an equally if not better explanation of nested hierarchies determined by “best fit” computer algorithms. You: You are conflating the model with the thing being modeled. A weather simulation is designed, but it isn’t wet even when it projects rain. The computer algorithm for nested hierarchies creates a mathematical representation of the best fit by statistical comparison. This best fit is independent of the observer. My response: No I am not, I was showing how your analogy doesn't hold up to scrutiny. Also your weather example is no good for you either, for the simple fact that weather simulation is attempting to predict the wheather before the fact. While the tree algorithms are after the fact. You: Great! Try it. So you won’t try it. That seems to be a trend with IDers. My response: Actually I had tried it even before you took over from my conversation with keith. I was simply hoping that you may see what becomes obvious if you also had done it. I will show you my experiment shortly. logically_speaking: I can arrange a bunch of cutlery, in size, function, and the material they are made from. All in a nested hierarchy, and using statistical analysis on it would also be useless. You: The statistical analysis would show that there are many equally rational ways to classify cutlery. My response: Hense my using the word useless, it also then applies to the tree of life. logically_speaking: Why did you OBJECTIVELY CHOOSE these features? You: We look at all the objective traits. My response: No "we" don't, hense the reason why you had a list and I had a completely different list. logically_speaking: Unfortunately nobody does look at all the traits when creating classifications, thats why it is subjective. You: Modern classification is based on evolutionary relationships, however, we are discussing classification by traits. You will note that Theobald 2010 considered classification with and without the problematic traits. The result was the same. My response: First off, maybe modern classification has been hijacked by evolutionists, but it originally began with Carl Linnaeus who classified things using a design mindset without any evolutiony assertions. Second if classification is based on evolutionary relationships (how is this determined? By looking at the evolution of traits perhaps?), then trying to create a tree using these classifications to show evolutionary relationships is circular reasoning. Of course theobald's results are the same, its based on so many faulty assumptions, bad use of statistics and circular reasoning. logically_speaking: branching descent is an assumption You: Yes, a hypothesis is a tentative assumption used to test its empirical implications. The positive result lends support to the hypothesis. How did you think science was done? My response: I agree. But when you have a theory that uses bad maths, circular reasoning and the assumptions can be shown to be wrong. Then the theory loses all credibility. logically_speaking: I can create nested hierarchies on cutlery using the geometry of trees and a bit of statistics, without any need for decent. You: Yes, but they won’t form an objective nested hierarchy. My response: I know they won’t form an objective nested hierarchy that is my point, I can use the exact methods and reasoning that Theobald uses and show how his methods fail. You: Again, your example of the bat was instructive. Biologists all classify bats as placentals, mammals, amniotes, tetrapods, gnastostomes, vertebrates, craniates, chordates, bilaterian, metazoa, eukaryotes. There is no reasonable doubt about this classification. No one who examines bats in detail classifies them as birds. My response: I am not saying that the classifications are in error, we humans love to classify everything as it makes it easier for us to talk about things and study them. However a large consensus of opinion does not make the opinion objective. Classification of life has and always will be subjective, the very fact that it's hard to even define what life IS should tell you that. And now the objective nested hierarchy test. Let’s make things really easy and basic. The pile of cutlery contains, knives, forks and spoons. These will be classified as the functions. The materials shall be wood, plastic and metal. Finally the sizes shall be categorised as small, medium and large. I mention all this so that you may repeat the experiment if you wish. I am concentrating on the end product here and presenting a very simple table of the results. Now because of how basic the nested hierarchies can be we are able to see ALL of the possible outcomes. There turns out to be 6 ways of arranging the cutlery in nested hierarchies, these are from the bottom up; 1. Material < size < function 2. Material < function < size 3. Function < size < material 4. Function < material < size 5. Size < function < material 6. Size < material { function Because we can see ALL of the trees, statZachriel, logically_speaking: So intelligent design is an equally if not better explanation of nested hierarchies determined by “best fit” computer algorithms. You: You are conflating the model with the thing being modeled. A weather simulation is designed, but it isn’t wet even when it projects rain. The computer algorithm for nested hierarchies creates a mathematical representation of the best fit by statistical comparison. This best fit is independent of the observer. My response: No I am not, I was showing how your analogy doesn't hold up to scrutiny. Also your weather example is no good for you either, for the simple fact that weather simulation is attempting to predict the wheather before the fact. While the tree algorithms are after the fact. You: Great! Try it. So you won’t try it. That seems to be a trend with IDers. My response: Actually I had tried it even before you took over from my conversation with keith. I was simply hoping that you may see what becomes obvious if you also had done it. I will show you my experiment shortly. logically_speaking: I can arrange a bunch of cutlery, in size, function, and the material they are made from. All in a nested hierarchy, and using statistical analysis on it would also be useless. You: The statistical analysis would show that there are many equally rational ways to classify cutlery. My response: Hense my using the word useless, it also then applies to the tree of life. logically_speaking: Why did you OBJECTIVELY CHOOSE these features? You: We look at all the objective traits. My response: No "we" don't, hense the reason why you had a list and I had a completely different list. logically_speaking: Unfortunately nobody does look at all the traits when creating classifications, thats why it is subjective. You: Modern classification is based on evolutionary relationships, however, we are discussing classification by traits. You will note that Theobald 2010 considered classification with and without the problematic traits. The result was the same. My response: First off, maybe modern classification has been hijacked by evolutionists, but it originally began with Carl Linnaeus who classified things using a design mindset without any evolutiony assertions. Second if classification is based on evolutionary relationships (how is this determined? By looking at the evolution of traits perhaps?), then trying to create a tree using these classifications to show evolutionary relationships is circular reasoning. Of course theobald's results are the same, its based on so many faulty assumptions, bad use of statistics and circular reasoning. logically_speaking: branching descent is an assumption You: Yes, a hypothesis is a tentative assumption used to test its empirical implications. The positive result lends support to the hypothesis. How did you think science was done? My response: I agree. But when you have a theory that uses bad maths, circular reasoning and the assumptions can be shown to be wrong. Then the theory loses all credibility. logically_speaking: I can create nested hierarchies on cutlery using the geometry of trees and a bit of statistics, without any need for decent. You: Yes, but they won’t form an objective nested hierarchy. My response: I know they won’t form an objective nested hierarchy that is my point, I can use the exact methods and reasoning that Theobald uses and show how his methods fail. You: Again, your example of the bat was instructive. Biologists all classify bats as placentals, mammals, amniotes, tetrapods, gnastostomes, vertebrates, craniates, chordates, bilaterian, metazoa, eukaryotes. There is no reasonable doubt about this classification. No one who examines bats in detail classifies them as birds. My response: I am not saying that the classifications are in error, we humans love to classify everything as it makes it easier for us to talk about things and study them. However a large consensus of opinion does not make the opinion objective. Classification of life has and always will be subjective, the very fact that it's hard to even define what life IS should tell you that.logically_speaking
November 24, 2014
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Keith s, I'm just curious; What kind of evidence would convince you that life was designed, created and fully complex...? I'm just wondering what is preventing you from seeing what is obvious to most on this blog... Please give me something to work with...Quest
November 24, 2014
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By the way, Box, you never did answer my question on the other thread. Is WJM "rotten to the core", as your standards suggest, since he doesn't care about the truth? Here is another data point for you. WJM:
keiths:
To a rational person who is seeking the truth, all of the evidence matters and should be considered.
I sought the truth for a long time, but then realized that finding out what was true wasn’t really what I was after.
I look forward to your answer.keith s
November 24, 2014
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Box:
I would like to know what would completely wreck the ONH signal. Please, provide an example. What would ruin Theobald’s ONH?
There are many, many possibilities. Here is one that I mentioned to Zachriel on the original thread at TSZ:
That aside, the more important point is that even non-perverse designers, including those who guide evolution via common descent, can act in a way that does not allow us to infer a single objective nested hierarchy. For example, consider a designer who is guiding evolution. Let’s say the unfolding tree currently has fifty ‘twigs’. The designer decides to introduce a complex new trait into half of the twigs, scattered randomly across the tree. If you were trying to infer a nested hierarchy from the evidence of the twigs, you wouldn’t be able to make sense of the data. That’s because the method you use to infer the hierarchy assumes that complex traits don’t magically appear in different twigs at the same time. It tries to find a tree where the complex trait arises once and then gets passed to the descendants. Now, if this kind of thing is happening with many different traits at many different levels of the tree, it will be impossible to reconstruct a single objective nested hierarchy from the data. Instead, you’ll get a bunch of wildly incongruent hierarchies that are subjective because they depend on the order in which you consider the various traits. This is crucial, so I’ll emphasize it yet again: An objective nested hierarchy implies common descent, but common descent does not necessarily lead to an objective nested hierarchy. Common descent via design can lead to many incongruent subjective nested hierarchies, because design is not limited to gradual changes and predominantly vertical inheritance. Unguided evolution is generally limited to gradual changes and predominantly vertical inheritance, so it predicts a single objective nested hierarchy.
keith s
November 24, 2014
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Phineas: Of course, no one is arguing that the nested hierarchy is better explained by a designer, are they? Many things have been argued on this blog, from there is no nested hierarchy, to designers make nested hierarchies not branching descent, to you're stupid about nested hierarchies, to (most often) trying to evade the point. Phineas: Instead, as HeKS has put it What you quoted doesn't say anything about the nested hierarchy or branching descent. Phineas: Do you mean that it doesn’t make design a trillion times less likely? No. It makes "special creation" trillions of times less likely. Branching descent is strongly supported.Zachriel
November 24, 2014
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keith s has been avoiding the important difference between planetary orbits and evolution. With planetary orbits, none of us have any need to invoke fairies of any kind to explain the regularity we see. However, regarding evolution, there are some of us who see aspects of life that we cannot account for by means of filtered accidents. Origin of life and origin of body plans in the Cambrian, just name two of very many, are areas where some of us feel we have justification for doubting that a satisfactory case has been made that exclusively naturalistic processes are entirely sufficient. Since we cannot account for some aspects of life on an entirely naturalistic basis, we are justified to postulate as a possible cause a form intelligence having some properties that are similar to our own. For those who do not/cannot agree there are problems with the exclusively naturalistic explanation to assert that "science" has conclusively demonstrates there is "no problem" is certainly not the way to make their case. Way back when, Barry asked for a satisfactory case to be made that addressed, in a substantive way, just some of the difficulties that we in the ID camp see. There have been many keyboards worn away but I have not seen anything resembling a serious attempt to provide us with such. Speaking of fairies, how about the invocation of the "Dark Matter Fairy" and the "Dark Energy Fairy". Cosmologists have postulated these two entities to account for observations that are not accounted for by our understanding of the regularities we have heretofore observed regarding gravity. (Leave aside the fact that we do not know how gravity actually works- may be fairies strictly following orders for all we know.) Dark matter has been proposed as a candidate because it, supposedly, has some properties that are similar to those of the matter we are familiar with. To my knowledge, dark matter is undetected so is it real? Dark energy has been suggested to account for the apparent acceleration of the furthest galaxies which would, as we understand physical processes, require some source of energy. To my knowledge, the source of the energy is yet unknown so is it real? How is this any different than invoking an intelligence similar to our own to account for some aspects of life (and the cosmos) that are not explainable (for some of us) by the exclusively naturalistic causes? StephenSteRusJon
November 24, 2014
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An amusing concession from WJM on the original thread at TSZ:
IF I assume that they phylogenetic tree is as you say, and as well-evidenced as you say, THEN if I was making my decision about ID based on what the phylogenetic tree looked like, I would conclude that life is best explained via unguided processes.
I love William. :-)keith s
November 24, 2014
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Keith,
the designer might have that capability, and we have no basis whatsoever for ruling it out
Now check this out:
the designer might **NOT** have that capability, and we have no basis whatsoever for ruling that out
Now what? Unsupported assumptions cannot be turned into facts Keith. Stop trying.Box
November 24, 2014
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keiths:
What I’m saying is that at every point in time it is possible for the Designer to do something that would completely wreck the ONH signal.
Phinehas:
Really?! How is it that you know this about a designer that we know absolutely nothing about? Seriously. Please explain how you know that at every point in time it is possible for a designer that we know absolutely nothing about to do something that would completely wreck the OHN signal.
Phinehas, This point is tripping up you and many of your fellow IDers, so let me take some time to smooth it out for you. The debate is not about a specific designer. There are many possible hypothetical designers with different characteristics, desires, and capabilities. The ID claim is that one or more of these hypothetical designers is responsible for the diversity and complexity of terrestrial life. You can think of it either way: there is a designer whose characteristics are unknown, or there is a set of designers, each having fixed characteristics, one or more of whom are real and are responsible for what we see in terrestrial life -- but we don't know which one(s). Those are logically equivalent, so when I say "it is possible for the designer to do something that would completely wreck the ONH signal", that is shorthand for either of the following: 1) the designer might have that capability, and we have no basis whatsoever for ruling it out; or 2) some of the possible designers have that capability, and we have no basis for ruling them out. Either way, it is possible for the ONH to be wrecked at any point in time. Why doesn't it happen? I have a good answer: the reason it doesn't happen is because unguided evolution can't do it. What is your answer?keith s
November 24, 2014
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