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HeKS continues to suggest a way forward on the KS “bomb” argument

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Last week, one of my comments relating to the KS “bomb” argument was made the subject of an OP, which can be found here.

In that comment, I had offered a few preliminary thoughts on Keith’s argument (originally found here, and summarized by him here) and asked a few questions to better understand the assumptions informing his argument. Unfortunately, the issues raised in my OP comment, as far I can tell, were never actually addressed. Instead, the ‘responses’ in the ensuing conversation revolved almost entirely around what the participating ID proponents considered obviously false analogies, which invoked “Planetary Angels”, “Rain Fairies”, “Salt Leprechauns”, and “Toilet Whales”.

Regarding these analogies, Keith, Zachriel, and other ID opponents, seemed to be arguing as though ID claims a designing agent is necessary to explain the shape/pattern of the ‘Objective Nested Hierarchy’ (ONH) into which living organisms are claimed to fall, when the production of  an ONH can be explained by a natural, unguided process of branching descent.  Thus, they claimed, there is no difference between the ID position and one that claims planets are moving in elliptical orbits because angels are choosing to push them around in such orbits, or one that claims salt falls from a salt shaker into a pile on the table because the falling salt is being guided by invisible leprechauns who like making salt piles. The idea here is that in each case we have some superfluous explanatory entity being posited to directly guide some process that looks exactly like it is not being guided, does not need to be guided, and is explained perfectly well by law-based processes.

During the course of the thread it was pointed out to them innumerable times that, even granting the existence of an ONH for life, ID does not and would not cite the shape or production of such an ONH as being an example of something that requires an explanation by reference to an intelligent cause. Rather, in identifying the need for an intelligent cause to explain certain aspects of biology, ID points to the evident infusion of significant amounts of biological information into the world of life, as well as the novel introduction of complex, functionally-specified biological systems and molecular machines. In other words, for its evidence, ID points to aspects of life that do not seem obviously explicable by reference to purely natural processes, whether stochastic or law-based, but that do contain hallmarks that we habitually and uniquely associate with conscious, intelligent, intentional activity. In yet other words, the previously mentioned analogies to “Planetary Angels” and “Salt Leprechauns” are horribly and obviously misguided and entirely off the mark.

Unfortunately, the distinction never seemed to get through to them. And even more unfortunately, the thread was eventually derailed and shut down while a number of conversations were still in progress. Aspects of the discussion, however, continued here.

In that new thread, the Rain Fairies, the Salt Leprechauns, and their most recent common ancestor, the Plantary Angels, have again reared their head, being invoked in response to the objection from ID proponents to the description of microevolution as being “unguided”. The point of the ID proponents in this case relates quite closely to one of the claims in Keith’s so-called “bomb” argument, with which I myself took issue in the previously mentioned OP. In Keith’s summary of his argument, he says that even “the most rabid IDer” admits that “unguided evolution” exists, with the ultimate intention of extrapolating what ID proponents admit happens into what they say does not happen.

Now, when Keith refers to “unguided evolution” here, he is referring to the relatively minor microevolutionary changes that take place within a population, but on the view of ID proponents, these are not the kind of phenomena that could, even in principle, be extrapolated to account for the macroevolutionary innovations that would be necessary to account for the full content of the alleged ONH “Tree of Life”. And in taking issue with the characterization of microevolution as “unguided”, the ID proponent is taking issue with the fact that a phrase that might be uncontroversially applied to a subset of these phenomena is, within the context of Keith’s argument, being over-generalized in a way that implicitly suggests an acceptance by ID proponents of propositions they do not actually accept, and so is a case of illegitimately stealing ground en route to the argument’s conclusion.

In addition to my comments in the original OP, I expanded on them somewhat in a recent comment, which I’ll duplicate here to fill out the remainder of this post and hopefully spur further discussion.

From here:

Now, when it comes to this business of proving that microevolution is unguided, I think there needs to be an understanding of what it would even mean to suggest that it is “guided”. I’m reasonably certain that the majority of people who would dispute claims that microevolution is unguided do not mean that a designer is actively, in the moment, effecting a specific microevolutionary change. Nor would they dispute that random mutations happen. Rather, they would likely dispute that all mutations are random. And they would also likely argue (as I did in the previous thread) that the constrained allowance for – and even rapid increased initiation of – mutations and general genetic and epigenetic changes are a purposeful aspect of the design of organisms to allow for diversification and adaptation (which is sometimes very rapid). If the random variation or shuffling is too large, however, it kills the organism, makes it sterile, or at the very least reduces its reproductive potential, decreasing the chances that the significant defect will be passed on or largely affect subsequent generations of a population.

In other words, the argument is not that random mutations allowing microevolution look unguided but are actually being directly manipulated by some designer. Rather, the argument is that 1) the RM/NS mechanism is a constrained feature of organismal design, and that the Neo-Darwinists are looking at a design feature of a system that makes use of randomization and illegitimately extrapolating it to explain the entire system itself; and 2) that not all mutations/changes are random at all, but some are internally directed in a purposeful manner for the benefit of the organism.

So, it seems to me that, from an ID perspective, saying something like, ‘even IDists admit unguided evolution exists’, is either A) a case of making a trivial claim that cannot be legitimately extrapolated from the kinds of microevolutionary changes that are seen (overwhelmingly degrading genetic information and/or narrowing genetic variability; breaking or blunting existing biological function for a net fitness gain) to the kinds of macroevolutionary innovations that are theorized (the introduction of complex, functionally-specified systems and molecular machines), or B) a case of making an unwarranted and unsubstantiated claim that the system that allows for and makes use of the RM/NS mechanism for the benefit and diversification of the organism does so by fluke, in a way that is fully unconstrained, and is itself undesigned; or C) both.

Of course, as I’ve said numerous times before, I think this is only one of many issues with Keith’s argument, but it has become quite clear that it is difficult to get even just one criticism seriously addressed in a comment thread, so it would likely be useless to draw in any others at this point. I’m hoping that the nonsensical false analogies about Rain Fairies and Planetary Angels can be left to the side to allow for some kind of substantive discussion of the issues, but I’ve been given little reason to suspect that my hope is grounded.

 

Comments
You’re shooting yourself in the foot, William. By that logic, you have to demonstrate what is and isn’t possible for the designer before we can consider ID as an explanation. Oops.
As I've already pointed out, Keith, your argument and ID theory are not the same thing. ID theory is about locating designs, not vetting potential designers. It would be foolish to say one must vet potential designers before one can identify a design. One must identify a design first, and then only from the nature of that designed artifact can one begin to consider what capacities any potential designer must have in order to instantiate that design.William J Murray
November 24, 2014
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I warned everyone that they needed to link to keiths's amended argument. So don't blame me.Mung
November 24, 2014
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WJM:
Keith has stealth-amended his original argument, which made no mention of “gradual change” and predominantly vertical inheritance”; he simply asserted that “unguided evolution” predicted an ONH signal would be left.
Your desperation is showing, William. From my original 2012 OP:
There are many choices available to a Designer who guides evolution. Only a tiny fraction of them lead to a inferable, objective nested hierarchy. The Designer would have to restrict himself to gradual changes and predominantly vertical inheritance of features in order to leave behind evidence of the kind we see.
And:
The only way to get an ONH is if the strivings just happen to leave a trace that looks exactly like unguided evolution, through gradual changes and primarily vertical inheritance.
keith s
November 24, 2014
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Joe, I'm using keiths own assertions against him, whether they are actually valid or not. I'm not agreeing that unguided evolution would produce a nested hierarchy, I'm pointing out that even if it did, by keith's reasoning guided evolution would produce the same pattern given the same parameters he places on unguided evolution. I agree you have a good argument that evolutionary processes do not predict a nested hierarchy, but even if they did, keith's argument would still crash and burn.William J Murray
November 24, 2014
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keith s:
My argument is that unguided evolution explains the ONH trillions of times better than design.
And you have been totally refuted. The refutation is so devastating that you have to ignore and/ or misrepresent it. The fact that you persist with this nonsense proves how desperate and small-minded our opponents are. We thank you for the display as it would have been impossible to get people to believe this happened if it wasn't documented. Nice own goalsJoe
November 24, 2014
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IOW, it doesn't matter if an evolutionary process(branching descent with variation from a common ancestor) is guided or unguided, if they proceed at a gradual rate with predominantly vertical descent, then they will predictably generate the same pattern. If you don't assume gradual change or predominantly vertical descent, then it doesn't matter if the evolutionary process is guided or unguided; the resulting pattern will appear unrelated to the pattern in the first example.William J Murray
November 24, 2014
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Keith: You’re shooting yourself in the foot, William. By that logic, you have to demonstrate what is and isn’t possible for the designer before we can consider ID as an explanation. Oops.
Nope. That doesn't follow at all. Oops!Box
November 24, 2014
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Keith, you never replied to my comment #3. In the meantime, I would like to respond to this and get clarification: Humans routinely wreck ONHs. Why doesn’t your designer? Why does your designer mimic unguided evolution all the time? I have an explanation for why we see the ONH. What’s yours? I have a hard time understanding this. UE is what is what is being argued over, so you can't use that to prove your point. It's just circular. All we have is the evolutionary process we have in front of us. Had we had different modes of evolution where we were able to say: "X is guided and Y is unguided, now our Z looks awfully like Y, therefore Z must be unguided too, and therefore if there IS a creator he is mimicking Y (unguided)" But we don't have that luxury. You have repeated tacked on "Unguided" to evolution as if you know that guided evolution would have looked different than what we have now. How do you have this information if nobody else has it? How do you personally know what guided evolution looks like as opposed to unguided?HD
November 24, 2014
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WJM:
The ONH is predicted by the hypothesis of guided evolution with gradual change and predominantly vertical inheritance.
Absolutely not- gradual change would bring about numerous transitional forms making it impossible to form the strict and distinct sets required of a nested hierarchy. Transitional forms produce overlapping sets. That is a bozo no-no when it comes to nested hierarchies.Joe
November 24, 2014
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Linnean Taxonomy, the observed ONH, reads like intelligent design plan. For example it says what is required for a basic animal- the basic animal design standard. Then with each level there are differing additions leading to differing organisms. And it turtles all the way down to the actual organisms. AND seeing that unguided evolution can't get beyond populations of prokaryotes given starting populations of prokaryotes, there isn't any way it can account for the diversity of life on Earth, so forget about it producing an ONH from that diversity. keith s, bombed to hell and obviously enjoying it. :razz:Joe
November 24, 2014
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Box, I'm glad you quoted that. It was one of William's finest foot-shooting moments. Here's how I responded:
WJM:
Keith attempts to explain where he gets his “trillions of possibilities” that the designer “could have” instantiated instead of an ONH:
Simple. There are 10^38 possibilities for a cladogram relating the 30 major taxa, which means there are 10^38 ways for two such cladograms to mismatch. Consider two cladograms based on, say, morphological vs. molecular data. If they mismatch significantly, then an ONH cannot be inferred.
Keith is equivocating between “what is imaginable” and “what is possible”. Keith’s failure of logic here is that the “possibilities” he refers to exist solely as imagined variant arrangements of the evidence and not on any known capacity of the designer to implement such arrangements. In order to “not rule out” any of the imagined arrangements keith must first show his imagined arrangements are all possible arrangements the designer could have actually instantiated in the first place.
You’re shooting yourself in the foot, William. By that logic, you have to demonstrate what is and isn’t possible for the designer before we can consider ID as an explanation. Oops.
Except Keith has no basis for such a demonstration because, as he said, he knows absolutely nothing about the designer.
And neither do you, so ID is off the table. Good work, William!
Because they are imaginable arrangements doesn’t mean they are actual possibilities available for instantiation to the designer.
Exactly. And if I can’t consider any of them as possibilities, you can’t either. You’ve single-handedly defeated ID, William. Note to onlookers: I love William. :-)
keith s
November 24, 2014
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(Assuming that unguided evolution predicts an ONH, and assuming that there is evidence of an ONH:) Keith said:
The ONH is predicted by the hypothesis of unguided evolution [WJM: note the stealth-amendment here:]with gradual change and predominantly vertical inheritance.
His original argument said:
11. If we take that approach and assume, temporarily and for the sake of argument alone, that unguided evolution is responsible for the diversity of life, we can see that unguided evolution predicts an objective nested hierarchy out of the trillions of possibilities.
Keith has stealth-amended his original argument, which made no mention of "gradual change" and predominantly vertical inheritance"; he simply asserted that "unguided evolution" predicted an ONH signal would be left. I guess that after Zachriel pointed out that guided biological evolution would do the same as unguided, and after I challenged him about whether or not unguided evolution could produce a broken ONH signal, Keith decided to amend his argument without notice. Unfortunately for keith's argument, it makes no difference which form of his argument you use if you make equal assumptions on both sides, as per this rewording of his amended statement above: The ONH is predicted by the hypothesis of guided evolution with gradual change and predominantly vertical inheritance.William J Murray
November 24, 2014
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keith s:
The ONH is predicted by the hypothesis of unguided evolution with gradual change and predominantly vertical inheritance.
Absolutely not. Darwin refuted that claim back in 1859 and Denton did it again in 1985. Here is another refutation- A family tree is an example of gradual change and predominantly vertical inheritance yet you cannot construct an ONH based on derived characteristics with a family tree. Linnean Taxonomy is an ONH, it doesn't have anything to do with gradual change and predominantly vertical inheritance and was used as evidence for a common design. Then once you factor in gradual change and predominantly vertical inheritance's requirement for numerous transitional forms, and there is no way we could form an ONH if we didn't cherry-pick which organisms to include- oops that makes it very subjective. keith s is obviously willfully ignorant.Joe
November 24, 2014
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Zachriel: It’s incredibly interesting. Indeed, it’s one of the most astounding facts in all science. Humans and hummingbirds have a common ancestor!
The designer?Box
November 24, 2014
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Keith #61, your nonsense has been demolished a trillion times already:
WJM: Keith attempts to explain where he gets his “trillions of possibilities” that the designer “could have” instantiated instead of an ONH:
Keith: Simple. There are 10^38 possibilities for a cladogram relating the 30 major taxa, which means there are 10^38 ways for two such cladograms to mismatch. Consider two cladograms based on, say, morphological vs. molecular data. If they mismatch significantly, then an ONH cannot be inferred.
Keith is equivocating between “what is imaginable” and “what is possible”. Keith’s failure of logic here is that the “possibilities” he refers to exist solely as imagined variant arrangements of the evidence and not on any known capacity of the designer to implement such arrangements. In order to “not rule out” any of the imagined arrangements keith must first show his imagined arrangements are all possible arrangements the designer could have actually instantiated in the first place. Except Keith has no basis for such a demonstration because, as he said, he knows absolutely nothing about the designer. Because they are imaginable arrangements doesn’t mean they are actual possibilities available for instantiation to the designer. Keith has confused arrangements he can imagine with arrangements a designer could actually, possibly instantiate.
Box
November 24, 2014
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Phinehas: I also don’t find this conclusion particularly interesting. It's incredibly interesting. Indeed, it's one of the most astounding facts in all science. Humans and hummingbirds have a common ancestor!Zachriel
November 24, 2014
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I want to if keiths and adapa are homosexuals. Simple questionVishnu
November 24, 2014
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Box:
Keith’s #53 doesn’t make sense at all. In effect Phinehas explains to him that the trillions of options available to the designer are totally unsupported; they may exist or not exist. So they are out.
They are not out, as I've explained to you again and again. Remember this?
Box, Here’s what you and William are missing: 1. To rule something out is to assign a probability of 0 to it. 2. To rule something in is to assign a probability of 1 to it. 3. Neither of those actions is appropriate, because we know nothing at all about the designer. 4. The only remaining option is to assign an equal probability to all of the possibilities. This is the “principle of indifference”, aka the “principle of insufficient reason.” It’s the standard approach in Bayesian statistics for a situation in which you have no prior information, and it makes perfect sense. Statisticians use it all the time. So do Dembski and Marks in one of their papers. Yet you and William are claiming that it’s invalid, and that Dembski and Marks and statisticians all over the world are wrong. Why? Because if you allow the POI, you don’t get the answer you want. That’s pitiful, Box. And it’s even worse than that. If you don’t allow the POI, then you have no basis for rejecting the Rain Fairy. Everyone reading this knows that the Rain Fairy hypothesis is ridiculous. Yet you and William are unwittingly arguing that it would be irrational to reject it. I’m afraid you’ve got that backwards. The Rain Fairy hypothesis is ridiculous, and so is ID — by exactly the same logic.
keith s
November 24, 2014
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keiths:
The ID claim is that one or more of these hypothetical designers is responsible for the diversity and complexity of terrestrial life.
That's the ID claim? keiths:
...he doesn’t care about the truth
Mung
November 24, 2014
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HeKS,
That was not a serious response.
Yes, it was. Do you have a rejoinder?keith s
November 24, 2014
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littlejohn #52,
If OOL processes generated the seed (cell) that grew the tree, it seems reasonable to pursue a line of evidence that the seed could have been pre-programmed with the evolutionary potential to grow the tree we find inhabiting the whole earth.
It depends on what you mean by "pre-programmed". If all you mean is that the first life had the potential for random mutation, and that random mutation, natural selection and drift led to what we see now, then you are effectively a "neo-Darwinist". If you are talking about genetic front-loading, then you have a problem. ID via genetic front-loading is as vulnerable to my argument as the other forms of ID.keith s
November 24, 2014
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Keith's #53 doesn't make sense at all. In effect Phinehas explains to him that the trillions of options available to the designer are totally unsupported; they may exist or not exist. So they are out. Then Keith says "Either way, how do you explain it?" and goes on if nothing happened and builds again on the trillion of options: "You need to come up with a trillions-to-one persuasive reason (...)" How does he do it? Just watching him makes me dizzy.Box
November 24, 2014
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Keith, That was not a serious response.HeKS
November 24, 2014
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WJM asks:
Now ask him if unguided evolution could wreck the ONH signal at any time
Keith said:
The answer is no. That’s why the absence of such phenomena supports unguided evolution and undermines ID.
Which brings us to an earlier exchange in the previous thread, where keith stated:
The Designer would have to restrict himself to gradual changes and predominantly vertical inheritance of features in order to leave behind evidence of the kind we see.
And I responded:
What keith fails to answer is if, or why unguided evolution is restricted to gradual changes and predominantly vertical inheritance.
To which Keith responded:
Because that’s what we observe, William, both in real time and from interpreting the evidence.
In other words, the reason keith gives to support his contention that that unguided evolution must leave ONH evidence is because ONH evidence exists. He offers no explanation on why "unguided" evolution cannot in principle produce variation too fast or be primarily horizontal and not vertical in order to leave an ONH signal; he simply asserts that because we find an ONH, that means unguided evolution is restricted to generating an ONH! Well, using the same circular reasoning on the ID side of the argument, if ONH evidence exists then the designer must have been restricted to using means that left ONH evidence! /sighWilliam J Murray
November 24, 2014
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keith s, Don't you think it is related to the whole objective off this blog to try to prove "....." like you to be wrong...? I mean, there is a limit at to what ID's can provide for a "....." like you... Don't you think that questioning others beliefs will get answered to yours....? Here we go again : "Keith s, I’m just curious; What kind of evidence would convince you that life was designed, created and fully complex…? I’m just wondering what is preventing you from seeing what is obvious to most on this blog… Please give me something to work with…" The way I see it, keith s not really interested in the evidence.... He is rather interested in the attention he gets from being oppositional to whatever IDers present... I suggest to drop this fellow as he is not interested in anything but his glorification.. He is proven to be an attention seeking M...n that give s..t about what the evidence is... that is my advice... because I think it is true...Quest
November 24, 2014
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Phinehas,
No, no, no. If a designer is responsible, then it is possible that he/she/it decided over and over and over again not to wreck the ONH. It is also (equally?) possible that he/she/it did not have the capability to decide such a thing or was never presented with such a choice, and so, did not decide over and over and over again not to wreck the ONH.
Either way, how do you explain it? The ONH is predicted by the hypothesis of unguided evolution with gradual change and predominantly vertical inheritance. ID predicts the opposite: it is 99.999...% likely that we won't see an ONH if ID is operating. You need to come up with a trillions-to-one persuasive reason for thinking that the designer would choose (or be limited to) the ONH motif. Otherwise unguided evolution is the far better choice. What is your trillions-to-one reason?keith s
November 24, 2014
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keith s Is it not true that evolution is guided by ecological contingencies, and/or other external and internal stimuli? Is your definition of unguided evolution therefore just limited to the exclusion of intentional forces and outcomes? If OOL processes generated the seed (cell) that grew the tree, it seems reasonable to pursue a line of evidence that the seed could have been pre-programmed with the evolutionary potential to grow the tree we find inhabiting the whole earth. The fact that tree has survived about 4 BY's on this planet is just one of many signs that the seed might have been planted and cultivated.littlejohn
November 24, 2014
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keiths:
Why does your designer mimic unguided evolution all the time?
"Mimic" is your own editorializing. And "unguided" is your own assumption. Apart from the assumptions and extra baggage you load onto your argument, all you are really saying is that branching descent better explains an ONH than not branching descent. And I don't disagree. I also don't find this conclusion particularly interesting. Demonstrate that the branching descent was unguided, and I might be more interested. Demonstrate that unguided natural forces are also able to overcome the things that ID actually thinks are barriers to evolution (and the ONH is not one of these things) and I'd definitely be more interested. But editorializing plus assumptions don't impress me very much.Phinehas
November 24, 2014
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keiths:
Instead, the ‘responses’ in the ensuing conversation revolved almost entirely around what the participating ID proponents considered obviously false analogies, which invoked “Planetary Angels”, “Rain Fairies”, “Salt Leprechauns”, and “Toilet Whales”.
Welcome to the world of keiths, a world full of fantasy and imagination. When heiths doesn't have an argument, he conjures up an 'analogy.' DDD: Obfuscation by 'Analogy' http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_analogyMung
November 24, 2014
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HeKS,
Yes, in other words, the unguided process of branching descent would distribute the innovation in a way that continued and conformed to an objective nested hierarchy. This is true whether we’re talking about biology or just any generic process of branching descent with some form of primarily vertical inheritance. Content added to a line of descent within a process of branching descent would retain the objective nested hierarchy.
See the example I provided to Box of how the ONH could be wrecked. Another example: the willy-nilly removal of complex features. It's available to a designer, but not to unguided evolution. That's why I keep stressing that gradual change and primarily vertical inheritance are essential if the ONH is to be inferable.
To say that it seems intelligence is required to explain the infusion of content is not the same as saying that it seems intelligence is required to explain the bare fact of the claimed ONH.
What you're missing is that the infusion of complex "content" is not separable from the formation of the ONH. The unguided branching events are not recorded directly -- they are inferred from the distribution of derived characters, including the complex ones.keith s
November 24, 2014
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