Leading Scientist Walks Back Doomsday Claim

_{Barry Arrington
March 26, 2020

Intelligent Design

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Intelligent Design}

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The Scientist who panicked the world with predictions of up to 2.2 million American deaths now says “never mind.” See here.

Comments

JVL, TF has a serious point. If rational, responsible freedom is little more than a delusion riding on neural networks created and programmed somehow through blind chance and/or mechanical necessity, we face grand, self-referential delusion. I yet again point to Reppert:
. . . let us suppose that brain state A [--> notice, state of a wetware, electrochemically operated computational substrate], which is token identical to the thought that all men are mortal, and brain state B, which is token identical to the thought that Socrates is a man, together cause the belief [--> concious, perceptual state or disposition] that Socrates is mortal. It isn’t enough for rational inference that these events be those beliefs, it is also necessary that the causal transaction be in virtue of the content of those thoughts . . . [But] if naturalism is true, then the propositional content is irrelevant to the causal transaction that produces the conclusion, and [so] we do not have a case of rational inference. In rational inference, as Lewis puts it, one thought causes another thought not by being, but by being seen to be, the ground for it. But causal transactions in the brain occur in virtue of the brain’s being in a particular type of state that is relevant to physical causal transactions.
Evolutionary Materialistic Scientism and/or fellow traveller views are self-referentially incoherent and self-falsifying. A sounder base would be to start from inescapable first principles and duties of reason and ask ourselves what sort of reality root is required to adequately ground such a world. That requires bridging the IS-OUGHT gap in that reality root. That's a big challenge and it points to a root of reality capable of being source of worlds, being also inherently good and utterly wise. If you doubt this, simply put up a serious alternative, ____, then warrant relative to comparative difficulties ______ . KFkairosfocus_{March 27, 2020
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Truthfreedom: So no reason capabilities then. You saved me a lot of time. Robots should not be allowed to post at UD. ???? It is not fair for the real people. And Robot or reasoning human here? What do the words ‘winning’ and ‘argument’ mean to a robot? Who programmed them into you? You keep dodging questions posed to you. Shall I state them again? When does science trump what someone perceives as God’s law? You did say intelligence was an objective good and then seemed to qualify that. So which is it? And what about that scenario you presented? Was it an actual situation or did you just make it up? These are important questions no matter who or what is asking them. But you keep avoiding answering them. Why is that? Are you afraid to answer them? Why would that be?JVL_{March 27, 2020
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@64 JimThibodeau Robot or reasoning human here? What do the words 'winning' and 'argument' mean to a robot? Who programmed them into you?Truthfreedom_{March 27, 2020
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@JVL So no reason capabilities then. You saved me a lot of time. Robots should not be allowed to post at UD. :) It is not fair for the real people.Truthfreedom_{March 27, 2020
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@JVL Yeah, people with winning arguments don’t need to change the subject.Jim Thibodeau_{March 27, 2020
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Truthfreedom: Before answering your questions, I would like to know if you acknowledge yourself as a rational human being with free will. Of course you would like to shift the focus. Cast things back onto your agenda. Sorry, I'm not playing that game. First answer the questions posed to you. They're not difficult I should think. Or maybe they are and that's why you're deflecting attention? Let me guess: because I won't answer your question you will refuse to answer mine. I can't stop you. But I will note that you didn't answer. When does science trump what someone perceives as God's law? It's kind of important; it certainly deserves an answer doesn't it? And you did say intelligence was an objective good and then seemed to qualify that. And what about that scenario you presented? Was it an actual situation or did you just make it up?JVL_{March 27, 2020
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Sev, see the Wuhan Space suits. It all depends on degree of protection. KFkairosfocus_{March 27, 2020
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@JVL 59 Before answering your questions, I would like to know if you acknowledge yourself as a rational human being with free will. I think of myself as such, and since I value my time a lot, I will not waste it replying to a self-proclaimed robot . Rational human vs rational human or no deal.Truthfreedom_{March 27, 2020
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Truthfreedom: I do not know what that guy is thinking. I have told you what I thought should be his (our behavior). At least I acknowledge that humans can reason and are not silly zombies. Not that we are perfect of course. So you think he's wrong. Good. When does science trump someone's perception of what God wants? In your opinion? And of course intelligence alone is useless. But you said it was an objective 'good'. That's what you said in post 54. ‘There is an epidemic knocking at the door, it is not recommended to gather together’ was the advice. Ignored of course because ideologies are way too powerful. And atheistic materialism is an ideology. I was hoping for more details of the scenario you put forward. Since you haven't done that should I assume you just made it up? The question being: did some group actually stage a mass protest as you proposed or was it just a theoretical question?JVL_{March 27, 2020
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GCS @ 53
What I propose for mask use is ultimately the best social distancing move we can make. A move that gives our economy the best chance for short term return to some “normalcy”. An we need the economy to function or everything collapses. Many business and schools could operate safely with a mask requirement.
If the masks block the emission of potentially virus-laden droplets and aerosols to the extent you're suggesting then this sounds like an eminently practical proposal. We just need to ramp up production of the masks to cope with the expected demand.Seversky_{March 27, 2020
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@56 JVL 1. I do not know what that guy is thinking. I have told you what I thought should be his (our behavior). At least I acknowledge that humans can reason and are not silly zombies. Not that we are perfect of course. 2. And of course intelligence alone is useless. We humans are under moral governance. We have been discussing this since the dawn of our species. No one says: 'look at that person, how intelligent he/ she is, OMG!' while trying to be insulting. 3. 'There is an epidemic knocking at the door, it is not recommended to gather together' was the advice. Ignored of course because ideologies are way too powerful. And atheistic materialism is an ideology.Truthfreedom_{March 27, 2020
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Truthfreedom: I think he should follow the law. Perhaps he thinks that God's law transcends human law? I have no idea what is actually going through his head but he seems very sure he is right. Meaning intelligence is an objective good. Depends on how it's used maybe? The scientists who invented the atomic bomb were pretty intelligent BUT they didn't decide to use the thing. Harry Truman did and he was no idiot. Do you think Harry Truman was right in his decision to drop two atomic weapons on Japan in 1945? And now, what do you think of millions of people gathering together to defend ‘womans rights’ while knowing and being told that there was a deadly COVID-19 outbreak? I'd like to know more about the situation but, I admit, on the face of it, based just on what you've said, it sounds misguided. But I reserve judgement until I know more. Britain's PM Boris Johnson is infected, the death count in the UK rises again by a huge amount. Tough times.JVL_{March 27, 2020
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I did not want for the whole post to be in bolds. Tag mistake.Truthfreedom_{March 27, 2020
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@56 JVL
What do you think of the owner of Hobby Lobby’s decision regarding his employees?
I think he should follow the law. And lawmkers should follow what science teaches us, but having in mind that we humans are fallible, and so is our science. No one should be put at risk for no reason. And my post was meant to explain that stupidity is a universal insult, because most humans understand that reason and prudence and logic are valuable and we should strive towards them. No one uses 'intelliget' as an insult. Meaning intelligence is an objective good. And now, what do you think of millions of people gathering together to defend 'womans rights' while knowing and being told that there was a deadly COVID-19 outbreak?Truthfreedom_{March 27, 2020
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Severski @ 41 I am proposing we look at masks from a different perspective. I agree that a covering of the mouth and nose alone will not protect you completely. It will greatly lower the risk to you if you wear one. Specifically it can greatly reduce the viral load of any exposure. We must look at masks from another perspective. The most important thing of masks is to protect others from us. Because of the real possibility of asymptomatic spread everyone is a possible transmitter. Coughing, talking, and even just breathing releases droplets and aerosols. Any covering over the mouth and nose will stop all droplet spread and much of any aerosol spread. In an area with active cases everyone wearing a mask in public would drop transmission close to zero, though it would take 2 - 3 weeks for any cases active then to run their course. asauber @ 25 Two to three weeks on ventilators working at full force to allow a healthy person to pull through is a little scary. Especially since this level of severity has been evident since the earliest cases. Take away the ventilators and use of ECMO (extracorporeal membrane oxygenation) for patients with complete lung function failure and these potential survivors die. This level of treatment for extended periods can overwhelm our health systems. That is what is scary - overwhelmed health systems which will affect all people. My son's clinic in Alaska is dealing with these issues now that the cases have reached there. So my fear is also personal. What I propose for mask use is ultimately the best social distancing move we can make. A move that gives our economy the best chance for short term return to some "normalcy". An we need the economy to function or everything collapses. Many business and schools could operate safely with a mask requirement. On this cheery note I encourage everyone to take it seriously.GCS_{March 27, 2020
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^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Amoral moralizers. Self refuting argumentation is the bread and butter of Darwinian atheists!bornagain77_{March 27, 2020
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Seversky: Why does the Hobby Lobby owner think that his interpretation is the intended one? He's absolutely sure he is right. It's a dangerous place to be . . . for others in this case.JVL_{March 27, 2020
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Why does the Hobby Lobby owner think that his interpretation is the intended one? Couldn't it also mean that he is to GUIDE his staff to go home or to a place of safety where they can be GUARDed against infection and GROOMed to practice the safety measures needed to protect against infection?Seversky_{March 27, 2020
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Oops, screwed up the end bold tag. PLEASE RETURN THE EDIT FUNCTION!!JVL_{March 27, 2020
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ET: Why do people choose to work for that guy? No one forced them to. I know that I will never shop at his stores.</b I wouldn't touch him with a 10-foot pole (loved your previous post on that).JVL_{March 27, 2020
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Why do people choose to work for that guy? No one forced them to. I know that I will never shop at his stores.ET_{March 27, 2020
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Truthfreedom What do you think of the owner of Hobby Lobby's decision regarding his employees?JVL_{March 27, 2020
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So stupidity is objectively wrong. Good to know, when we are taught that we live in a world with no objective values/ references.Truthfreedom_{March 27, 2020
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JVL @ 42
What a jerk:
The US arts-and-crafts chain Hobby Lobby has said it will remain open during the coronavirus epidemic – but has also refused sick pay for workers who fall ill, including from Covid-19.

Ah, but he's operating under divine guidance:
"In her quiet prayer time this past week, the Lord put on Barbara's heart three profound words to remind us that He's in control. Guide, Guard, and Groom," Green reportedly says in the letter. "We serve a God who will Guide us through this storm, who will Guard us as we travel to places never seen before, and who, as a result of this experience, will Groom us to be better than we could have ever thought possible before now."
I don't mind him following his religious beliefs but not when it puts others at risk unnecessarily. Verse: You can't fix stupid! -- Ron WhiteSeversky_{March 27, 2020
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Immune systems are 'imperfect' >>> Evolution 'created' brains to understand those 'imperfections' and correct them (a.k.a. science). All thanks to RM+NS+drift. According to naturalism, the brain is part of the immune system. :)Truthfreedom_{March 27, 2020
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What a jerk:
The US arts-and-crafts chain Hobby Lobby has said it will remain open during the coronavirus epidemic – but has also refused sick pay for workers who fall ill, including from Covid-19.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/hobby-lobby-stay-open-coronavirus-staff-sick-leave-a9423491.htmlJVL_{March 27, 2020
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GCS@ 22
Wear a mask in public.
It seems to be that, apart from being in desperately short supply, the available masks do not give full-face protection. I was thinking about something like the full-face masks worn by snorkel divers which cover eyes, nose and mouth and with a filter in the snorkel extension. They would have to be re-usable which means either washable or zapped with UV radiation. The problem would be would such a tight-fitting mask be comfortable or even practical over really long shifts. Perhaps a better alternative would be the sort of hoods that form part of hazmat suits.Seversky_{March 27, 2020
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Asauber: Didn’t shout. Just asked a question. Yeah, I meant after I had a guess. You can shout at Seversky though, he's used to it! :-)JVL_{March 27, 2020
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@36 Bornagain77:
But how had I got this idea of just and unjust?
Same goes for the idea of perfection. According to atheists, the universe is 'imperfect', nature is 'imperfect', our bodies are 'imperfect', etc etcm Imperfect compared to what? Where did you get the idea of perfection in a fully imperfect world? Truthfreedom_{March 27, 2020
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"Don’t shout at me for having a guess, you asked." Didn't shout. Just asked a question. Andrewasauber_{March 27, 2020
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