Uncommon Descent Serving The Intelligent Design Community

Of Pulsars and Pauses

Share
Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Flipboard
Print
Email

DrREC is not just any Darwinist.  He holds a doctorate and has published on complex matters of biology in peer reviewed journals.  He is not stupid.  That’s why I like to use his examples in my posts.  I am not picking on a defenseless layman.  He’s among the Darwinists’ best and brightest.  So let’s get to his latest pronouncement from on high:

DrREC writes: 

Pulsars often have a complex behavior. But is it specified? If we took the pattern of pulses we detect as the ‘design specification’ — the pattern we search for, we would conclude yes. Totally and undeniably circular. Prove me wrong.

Here’s the problem with DrREC’s reasoning.  He seems to assume (despite being told the contrary numerous times), that any “pattern” can be designated post hoc as “specified.”  He does not seem to understand the most basic concepts of design theory.  The answer is that not any pattern can legitimately be called a specification. 

In a comment to my prior post Bruce David explains the concept nicely as follows:

Dembski’s work builds on that of earlier probability theorists’ who were wrestling with the problem that, for example, any pattern of heads and tails obtained by tossing a coin 100 times is equally improbable, yet intuitively, a pattern of 50 heads followed by 50 tails is in some sense far less probable than a ‘normal’ random pattern. In order to solve this conundrum, they came up with the idea of specification—if the pattern of heads and tails can be described independently of the actual pattern itself, then it is specified, and specified patterns can be said to be non-random. And note, the pattern does not have to be described ahead of time; the requirement is just that it is capable of being described independently of the actual pattern itself. In other words, a normal ‘random’ pattern can only be described by something equivalent to ‘the first toss was heads, the second heads, the third tails,’ and so on, whereas the example above is specified because it can be described as I already have, namely, ’50 heads followed by 50 tails’.

Back to DrREC’s question.  The pulses from the pulsar are indeed highly complex (i.e., improbable).  But they are never specified because they cannot be, as Bruce says, “described independently of the actual pattern itself.”  Therefore if we “took the pattern of pulses we detect as the ‘design specification'” even though that pattern could not be described independently of the actual pattern itself, we would simply be wrong.  That pattern does not conform to the definition of a specification. 

DrREC basically says, “If we call any pattern we find a “specification” then any pattern we find will be a “specification,” and that gets us nowhere.  Well, of course he is right as far as it goes.  But at a deeper and more meaningful level he is wrong, because no one says you can call just any pattern you find a specification.  The pattern must conform to a strict criterion before it can be considered a specification. 

So DrREC, I answered your question.  While we are on the issue of pulses you can answer mine.  Suppose researchers detect a repeating series of 1,126 pulses and pauses of unknown origin.  The pulses and pauses start like this (with one’s conforming to pulses and zero’s conforming to pauses):  110111011111011111110 . . .  After analyzing the series they determine that the zero’s are spaces between numbers and the one’s add up to numbers.  Thus, the excerpt I reproduced would be 2, 3, 5 and 7, the first four prime numbers.  The researchers suddenly realize that the 1,126 pulses and pauses represent the prime numbers between 1 and 100.  (Obviously, this was the series in the movie Contact).

My question for you DrREC is this:  Would you join Arch-atheist, uber-materialist, Darwinist Carl Sagan and conclude that this series is obviously designed by an intelligent agent?  If so, why?  After all, it is a hard fact that this series of 1,126 pulses and pauses is NO MORE IMPROBABLE than any other series of 1,126 pulses and pauses.

Comments
An unspecified arrangement of DNA molecules will result in absolutely nothing, every time, no exceptions.
I assume you mean the percentage of random sequences that are functional is low. No that there are no exceptions. But you have no theory behind the distribution of function. You cannot independently determine a sequence that is one base pair from functionality from a purely random sequence. For that reason alone you cannot assert that the other words in the sequence are specified. If you cannot distinguish a degraded functional sequence from a random sequence, you cannot assign bits of information to it. You have no theory of what the minimum functional sequence is, nor any theory that will tell you whether there are possibly synonymous sequences nearby in sequence space.Petrushka
December 15, 2011
December
12
Dec
15
15
2011
10:13 AM
10
10
13
AM
PDT
... and ... Finals are done! I hope to be posting here again more often. I'll start with saying that although I have not yet read through all the comments above, I have noticed that Dr. REC appears to have a problem with specifications vs. pre-specifications. I'm not sure if this has been dealt with yet, but Dr. Dembski has laid out the difference between the two forms of specification (ie: the predictive form of pre-specification vs. the inherent "meaningful/functional" form of specification) in his paper "Specification: the Pattern that Signifies Intelligence." The "meaningful/functional" form of specification is basically the type of information that Upright Biped has been discussing lately (ie: requiring sender, receiver, protocol, and instantiation in physical medium yet not being defined by the physical properties of that medium).CJYman
December 15, 2011
December
12
Dec
15
15
2011
10:08 AM
10
10
08
AM
PDT
Is the Voynich Manuscript specified? Does it contain information, or is it just gibberish?Petrushka
December 15, 2011
December
12
Dec
15
15
2011
10:04 AM
10
10
04
AM
PDT
First a few housekeeping things- I can't reply to all of your comments. I don't think we need new analogies. I think the pulsar example is sufficient. I'm interested in detecting design from non-design (nature) not enigma codes or rosetta stones (which no one ever suspected of being natural. I'm still waiting for someone to explain how they would detect design without a pre-established or independently known pattern. Anyone? I don't believe I'm insane, brainwashed, genuflecting at the altar of darwinism, wicked or an idiot. Thanks for the insults and the kind treatment by the moderators. For the record, I declared the case of getting 10 flushes in a row highly improbable. It is. I will now show how KF's metric assumes design:DrREC
December 15, 2011
December
12
Dec
15
15
2011
09:49 AM
9
09
49
AM
PDT
Dear DrREC, what about this? a strange manuscript is found. No doubt it is medieval (carbon-dating and so on). It is divinely inspired, the author says. There are 100 theorems all false in euclidean geometry and all true in some non-euclidean geometry. It takes decades to interpret and prove all the theorems. Could this be considered specified information?krtgdl
December 15, 2011
December
12
Dec
15
15
2011
09:02 AM
9
09
02
AM
PDT
Irony can be defined as loudly proclaiming that you are being denied the chance to proclaim loudly. No, I wanted to single that comment out in its own OP. As the post says, anyone who wants to comment on it is welcome to do so in the first post.Barry Arrington
December 15, 2011
December
12
Dec
15
15
2011
08:31 AM
8
08
31
AM
PDT
OT: Barry, I think there is some merit in keeping the discussion here, rather than opening up multiple threads, but I think once we're done here you need to open up the other thread to comments so that DrREC can respond to that specific issue. He has already complained multiple times about the thread being closed and is obviously going to use that as a reason why he wasn't able to win the day -- the moderators took a pot shot and didn't allow him to respond; the discussion was unfairly stacked. Please let him respond before too long so this moderating point can get off the table.Eric Anderson
December 15, 2011
December
12
Dec
15
15
2011
08:23 AM
8
08
23
AM
PDT
Exactly, ScottAndrews2. We infer design all the time without knowing the exact prior specification beforehand.Eric Anderson
December 15, 2011
December
12
Dec
15
15
2011
08:18 AM
8
08
18
AM
PDT
DrREC, don't get hung up on how a code is broken. Every time a code is broken there is some kind of story about how the investigators finally figured it out. Doesn't matter if they sat long nights staring at incomprehensible figures, or if they found some other clue, or if someone walked in the room and told them what to look for. The question remains, please don't avoid it: Is it possible to crack a previously unknown code and recognize as a result that it was designed? Yes or no?Eric Anderson
December 15, 2011
December
12
Dec
15
15
2011
08:14 AM
8
08
14
AM
PDT
A pattern must be pre-specified in order to be truly specified? You're correct in stating that we can't just call anything specified. But what about this post, or yours? Who specified them before they were typed? The specific combination of characters does not match any specification. An unspecified arrangement of DNA molecules will result in absolutely nothing, every time, no exceptions. That a given arrangement results in the components of cells, the cells themselves, all of their functions, and their assembly into greater units which in turn perform additional functions is evidence that the arrangement is specified. You can dispute this and reason that I'm still arbitrarily applying the specification post-hoc. But then it becomes your position that there really is no difference between a sea urchin and a pile of lifeless, functionless proteins. It's arbitrary, splitting hairs. Is that your position? If the specification is post-hoc and arbitrary, then is the difference between the arranged proteins of a living thing and a random collection of functionless proteins also just a post-hoc invention? Are they only different because we choose to see them that way?ScottAndrews2
December 15, 2011
December
12
Dec
15
15
2011
07:04 AM
7
07
04
AM
PDT
Actually, I find the discussion maddening. How is it that an intelligent man with Dr. REC’s background, will bend over backwards and twist himself into pretzels to deny the clear design implications found in biological life? He is incorrigible, plain and simple, and it seems silly to me to carry on the conversation. Obviously, nothing can be said to turn him around.
Hand-waving semiotic definitions are most unimpressive
That says it all right there. This man would infer intelligence if he finds a single rune scrawled on a cave wall, but when we discover algorithmically compressed, hierarchically nested, multilayer encrypted machine code regulating and driving molecular compound machinery (replete with levers, wheels & axles, ramps, screws, etc.), his worldview forces him to chalk that up to a cosmic fart. He’s been brainwashed. Although… it is kind of fun to watch a few ID proponents make the "scientist" look just as dogmatic as a wild haired fundamentalist.M. Holcumbrink
December 15, 2011
December
12
Dec
15
15
2011
06:15 AM
6
06
15
AM
PDT
Yes there is a design inference required to break a code even if you know the sender- you do not know the message and that is what you are trying to detect.Joe
December 15, 2011
December
12
Dec
15
15
2011
04:17 AM
4
04
17
AM
PDT
I answered you already- no one can predict what any given designer will design next. Just as no one from your position can predict what mutation will occur next nor which mutation will be kept and spread.Joe
December 15, 2011
December
12
Dec
15
15
2011
04:16 AM
4
04
16
AM
PDT
No, we wouldn't say the signal from a pulsar was designed because it does NOT meet the criteria of an artificial signal. Specification is NOT the only criteria and the EF makes that very clear.Joe
December 15, 2011
December
12
Dec
15
15
2011
04:14 AM
4
04
14
AM
PDT
F/N 2: Cf. here on, on a priori evolutionary materialism flying the false colours of science.kairosfocus
December 15, 2011
December
12
Dec
15
15
2011
03:05 AM
3
03
05
AM
PDT
F/N: Onlookers, you may want to work your way through the thought exercise here, to clarify the matter in your minds. I have very little confidence that sufficiently determined objectors to the design inference will be open to ANY argument and evidence, given the a priori controlling force of evolutionary materialism. They will only be silenced by the shifting force of a consensus that makes their view so obviously indefensible that prudence will dictate a change. KFkairosfocus
December 15, 2011
December
12
Dec
15
15
2011
03:01 AM
3
03
01
AM
PDT
F/N: And, since when is a string structure not a string structure, just because it is made of D/RNA monomers or AA's that we observe in a living cell? KFkairosfocus
December 15, 2011
December
12
Dec
15
15
2011
02:53 AM
2
02
53
AM
PDT
Dr REC: Pardon, but this question-begging strawman has been dealt with before, indeed over a decade ago. Let's go back to Dr Dembski on CSI, in NFL:
p. 148: “The great myth of contemporary evolutionary biology is that the information needed to explain complex biological structures can be purchased without intelligence. My aim throughout this book is to dispel that myth . . . . Eigen and his colleagues must have something else in mind besides information simpliciter when they describe the origin of information as the central problem of biology. I submit that what they have in mind is specified complexity [[cf. here below], or what equivalently we have been calling in this Chapter Complex Specified information or CSI . . . . Biological specification always refers to function . . . In virtue of their function [[a living organism's subsystems] embody patterns that are objectively given and can be identified independently of the systems that embody them. Hence these systems are specified in the sense required by the complexity-specificity criterion . . . the specification can be cashed out in any number of ways [[through observing the requisites of functional organisation within the cell, or in organs and tissues or at the level of the organism as a whole] . . .” p. 144: [[Specified complexity can be defined:] “. . . since a universal probability bound of 1 [[chance] in 10^150 corresponds to a universal complexity bound of 500 bits of information, [[the cluster] (T, E) constitutes CSI because T [[ effectively the target hot zone in the field of possibilities] subsumes E [[ effectively the observed event from that field], T is detachable from E, and and T measures at least 500 bits of information . . . ”
That should long since have been clear enough. My only concern is that the relevant UN-representative zones, T in the wider space of possible configs, W, may be quite large though relatively small compared to the config space. That is why in adjusting Dembski's 2005 expression, I confined the 500 bits case to the solar system of some 10^57 atoms, as the number of Planck Time Quantum states would be of order 10^102. In that context, it is easy to show that a sample on the scope of 10^102 is comparable to drawing at blind chance plus equally blind mechanical necessity, one straw-size sample from a cubical hay bale 3 1/2 light days on the side. As a biologist, you are certainly familiar with sampling theory and therefore full well know that such a sample is maximally likely to come from the absolutely dominant bulk of typical possibilities, not the atypical ones, even if we are not just having a few needles in the haystack, but our Solar system out to Pluto. (To take in the observed cosmos as a whole, simply extend to 1,000 bits.) The needle in the haystack challenge, unsurprisingly, is proverbial. It is also aptly illustrative of what a "specification" is: a needle is not so much specified before the fact, as independent of the situation and is an objective, observable fact. That needle in the haystack challenge is the reason why an ATYPICAL zone, T, will be all but certainly unobservable on chance plus necessity in a sufficiently large space, within a given compass of search resources; our solar system being our "practical" universe, where also it takes about 10^30 PTQS's for the fastest chemical reactions. Which, BTW [GD, kindly note], is foundational to the statistical grounding of the second law of thermodynamics. Further, function is a macro-observable, independently specifiable state of affairs. Namely: does it work in some way dependent on having a configuration of parts from a narrow and unrepresentative zone in the field of possible configs? (Your car part must not only be generically right, it must be specifically correct within a zone of tolerance, of it will not work.) Alphanumerical characters in posts in this thread could come from a vast field of possibilities. But, when we find them in strings that conform to contextually responsive messages in English, we have excellent reason to infer that that needle was not found in the haystack by chance and blind necessity. AND, THIS IS AN AFTER-THE-FACT OBSERVATION. It plainly warrants inference to intelligent author, not chance and/or mechanical necessity. Indeed, most contributors in this thread do not know one another face to face, we are inferring to specific authors in the first instance on FSCI, rather than the equivalent of a pile of rocks tumbling down a hillside on the Welsh border and by happenstance of lucky noise plus blind gravity forming the shape of the glyphs that spell out: Welcome to Wales. So, your whole argument has collapsed. Going further, much of this -- in the context of exchanges at UD since March -- is about a latterday attempt to pretend by drumbeat repetition of long since already answered talking points, that the log reduced chi_500 metric does not adequately answer to the sock puppet MG's claim that CSI is improperly defined. So, let's clip the just linked:
. . . when a sufficiently small, chance based, blind sample is taken from a set of possibilities, W — a configuration space, the likeliest outcome is that what is typical of the bulk of the possibilities will be chosen, not what is atypical. And, this is the foundation-stone of the statistical form of the second law of thermodynamics. Hence, Borel’s remark as summarised by Wikipedia:
Borel said that if a million monkeys typed ten hours a day, it was extremely unlikely that their output would exactly equal all the books of the richest libraries of the world; and yet, in comparison, it was even more unlikely that the laws of statistical mechanics would ever be violated, even briefly.
In recent months, here at UD, we have described this in terms of searching for a needle in a vast haystack: g: As Abel estimated, there are perhaps 10^57 atoms in our solar system, which h: in 10^17 s [a plausible lifetime estimate of order 10 bn years] will undergo ~ 10^102 Planck Time quantum states (this being a lower limit to physical events, the fastest chemical reactions take ~ 10^30 such, and fast nuclear events take ~ 10^20), where i: a set of just 500 bits have 3.27* 10^150 possible configurations. So, j: the scope of possible blind search to that of possible outcomes is 1:10^48. k: This is comparable to taking a one-straw sized sample at random from a cubical haystack 2 1/2 light days on the side. l: Even if our solar system out to Pluto were lurking in the stack, by utterly overwhelming likelihood, the sample would be straw not anything else. With this in mind, we may now look at the Dembski Chi metric, and reduce it to a simpler, more practically applicable form: m: In 2005, Dembski provided a fairly complex formula, that we can quote and simplify: ? = – log2[10^120 ·?S(T)·P(T|H)]. ? is “chi” and ? is “phi” n: To simplify and build a more “practical” mathematical model, we note that information theory researchers Shannon and Hartley showed us how to measure information by changing probability into a log measure that allows pieces of information to add up naturally: Ip = – log p, in bits if the base is 2. (That is where the now familiar unit, the bit, comes from.) o: So, since 10^120 ~ 2^398, we may do some algebra as log(p*q*r) = log(p) + log(q ) + log(r) and log(1/p) = – log (p): Chi = – log2(2^398 * D2 * p), in bits Chi = Ip – (398 + K2), where log2 (D2 ) = K2 p: But since 398 + K2 tends to at most 500 bits on the gamut of our solar system [our practical universe, for chemical interactions! (if you want , 1,000 bits would be a limit for the observable cosmos)] and q: as we can define a dummy variable for specificity, S, where S = 1 or 0 according as the observed configuration, E, is on objective analysis specific to a narrow and independently describable zone of interest, T:
Chi_500 = Ip*S – 500, in bits beyond a “complex enough” threshold
(If S = 0, Chi = – 500, and, if Ip is less than 500 bits, Chi will be negative even if S is positive. E.g.: A string of 501 coins tossed at random will have S = 0, but if the coins are arranged to spell out a message in English using the ASCII code [[notice independent specification of a narrow zone of possible configurations, T], Chi will — unsurprisingly — be positive.) r: So, we have some reason to suggest that if something, E, is based on specific information describable in a way that does not just quote E and requires at least 500 specific bits to store the specific information, then the most reasonable explanation for the cause of E is that it was intelligently designed. (For instance, no-one would dream of asserting seriously that the English text of this post is a matter of chance occurrence giving rise to a lucky configuration, a point that was well-understood by that Bible-thumping redneck fundy — NOT! — Cicero in 50 BC.) s: The metric may be directly applied to biological cases: t: Using Durston’s Fits values — functionally specific bits — from his Table 1, to quantify I, so also accepting functionality on specific sequences as showing specificity giving S = 1, we may apply the simplified Chi_500 metric of bits beyond the threshold:
RecA: 242 AA, 832 fits, Chi: 332 bits beyond SecY: 342 AA, 688 fits, Chi: 188 bits beyond Corona S2: 445 AA, 1285 fits, Chi: 785 bits beyond
u: And, this raises the controversial question that biological examples such as DNA — which in a living cell is much more complex than 500 bits — may be designed to carry out particular functions in the cell and the wider organism. v: Therefore, we have at least one possible general empirical sign of intelligent design, namely: functionally specific, complex organisation and associated information [[FSCO/I] . . .
Let's ask, just on this example: is biofunction of an AA sequence independently observable -- say, as an enzyme -- and/or measurable? Obviously, yes. Does the requirement of being from a specific zone T -- and island of function -- in the space of possible AA strings of the same or comparable length constitute a question-begging after the fact imposition? Patently, not so, we know that derangement of function is easy enough to achieve by breaking folding (fold domains being of order 1 in 10^70 or so of the AA space per recent empirical studies) or removal of key functional groups. The "after the fact" objection falls apart, again. As has been repeatedly pointed out. What about, the imposing of a value 1/0 on S in the equation above, is subjective and question-begging? The answer is obvious, 0 is the DEFAULT and means that chance plus necessity can explain an outcome. As has been repeatedly pointed out -- and just as repeatedly ignored in the attempts to use drumbeat talking points to drown it out -- it is when we can find an objective, independent credible reason to identify an observed case E as coming from a narrow and atypical, separately describable zone T, that we identify S = 1. Just as we would adjust a macroeconomic model for being in a war by setting a similar dummy variable. I should also add that all human intelligent activity pivots on the fact of being a conscious subject who holds a differing view, i.e. the mere existence of a subject in the situation does not allow us to dismiss an inconvenient finding as merely subjective. That, is a thinly veiled ad hominem circumstantial. Instead, the challenge is to examine the warrant on the merits of fact, and logic. In this case, quite plainly, that challenge has long since -- over a decade ago -- been met. As cited from Dembski, BEFORE the controversy. In short, all of this debate has been a matter of tilting at strawmen. Cho, man, do betta dan dat! GEM of TKIkairosfocus
December 15, 2011
December
12
Dec
15
15
2011
02:34 AM
2
02
34
AM
PDT
Wow, great discussion! Please keep going.Christian-apologetics.org
December 15, 2011
December
12
Dec
15
15
2011
12:53 AM
12
12
53
AM
PDT
Wow, after chasing me through three new threads (one with comments closed) I didn't expect you to give up so soon. "it is based on a false premise, the premise the patterns in biology from which we may detect design must be designated in advance of the investigation." Is it? Really? "In statistics we always set the rejection region in advance." So "the patterns in biology from which we may detect design" which you say are not designated in advance are nothing at all like a statistical science? I kinda suspected that. I'm picturing a young SETI investigator (and you guys luuuuvvve SETI (the other folks in the design detection business)) running to his boss and saying he's discovered a designed signal, based not on the prime numbers, or digits of pi, bit on the complex sequence he discovered. Which pulsars also produce. Naturally. Ooops. Cancel the call to CNN. So here, you argue biological ID can be detected based on the human patterns (designs) which describe nature. So "the patterns in biology from which we may detect design" can be designated after they are detected in the search for design. How wonderfully and pathetically circular. So four posts back, my original point stands. And here what evidence do you bring against it? "As is the case with cryptanalysis and forensic investigation, we are perfectly justified in taking the patterns as we find them" In cryptanalysis has the question ever been natural vs. designed, or is it the breaking of a code know to be designed?' Same for forensics-natural patterns vs. predefined/expected scenarios. Post-hoc rationalizations of seemingly natural scenarios might not pass reasonable doubt. Or logic. Kinda X-files/Torchwood stuff there. How would a jury react to that? So does the design detection in fcsi/csi/fiasco/fcsio? rely on post-hoc detection? If your answer is no, give me a single example to the contrary.DrREC
December 14, 2011
December
12
Dec
14
14
2011
11:55 PM
11
11
55
PM
PDT
I"m taking about design detection (distinguishing nature from design) here. I doubt the British receiving Encrypted German communications (particularly after Polish intel and capture of Enigma devices) or the French looking at the Rosetta Stone (which had a language they well knew) were naturally occurring objects. Odd response. Still not getting the point.DrREC
December 14, 2011
December
12
Dec
14
14
2011
11:36 PM
11
11
36
PM
PDT
Okey dokey. We agree on these points I set out in comment 4. Let's build on that foundation. Complex specified information ("CSI") is information that is both "complex" (i.e., highly improbable) and "specified" (i.e., it conforms to a certain kind of pattern). The prime numbers in "Contact" are CSI. Without saying this in so many words, you conceded the point when you agreed that the "Contact" numbers are highly improbable and that they conformed to a pattern. You insisted that the pattern had to be given beforehand, but we'll get to that later. The main point is that at least in this example you have conceded the basic insight of ID, that a design inference is warranted when an event exhibits CSI. Apparently your only quibble with ID is your insistence that the specification be designated prior to the investigation in order to avoid what you call circular reasoning. I will now demonstrate why your quibble is not justified. Let's go back to Bruce's example. He defines a "specification" as a type of pattern that can be "described independently of the actual pattern itself." Note, I did not abandon Dembski's definition. Bruce's definition is the same thing stated in a simpler way. Importantly, Bruce continues: "And note, the pattern does not have to be described ahead of time; the requirement is just that it is capable of being described independently of the actual pattern itself." You write: "Or as you call it a “specification” not merely a pattern. Wondering what the criteria for that are." Well, there you go. The criterion for a specification is that it is capable of being described independently of the actual pattern itself." Now, as someone holding a doctorate in biology you are no doubt familiar with the concept of "rejection region" in statistics, i.e., the set of values for which we fail to reject the null hypothesis. Let's say we are testing a person who claims to be clairvoyant. We can test this claim by showing him the back 24 cards and asking him to say what suit they are. The null hypothesis is that he is not clairvoyant and can do no better than chance. He would be expected to get 6 answers right on sheer dumb luck. The number of correct answers that would cause us to reject the null hypothesis is called the "rejection region." So we could say that if he gets 12 answers correct he is clairvoyant and the numbers 12 and above would be the rejection region. In statistics we always set the rejection region in advance. And I take it this is the source of your insistence that any "specification" be designated in advance. But a moment's reflection shows that in design detection (as opposed to a confirmatory statistical data analysis), the pattern need NOT be set beforehand. Dembski gives the following example. Consider the following set of letters: nfuijolt ju jt mjlf b xfbtfm This appears to be a meaningless sequence of random letters until a Caesar cipher is applied (i.e., each letter is moved on position down the alphabet). Then it becomes: methinks it is like a weasel. Here the pattern (the decrypted text) is given after the fact. Dembski writes: "In contrast to statistics, which always identifies its patterns before an experiment is performed, cryptanalysis must discover its patterns after the fact. In both instances, however, the patterns are suitable for inferring design." The same is true in a criminal forensic investigation. It is absurd for the investigator to try to impose a rejection region on the crime scene before his investigation. He takes the crime scene as he finds it and only then does he look for patterns that indication design (i.e., a crime). So, as promised, I will answer your question. You write: "What biology have you detected that conforms to a pre-specified pattern, not a post-hoc detection?" Here's the answer. Your question is meaningless because it is based on a false premise, the premise the patterns in biology from which we may detect design must be designated in advance of the investigation. As is the case with cryptanalysis and forensic investigation, we are perfectly justified in taking the patterns as we find them and making design inferences (or not) after the fact. The only issue is whether the information we find is both complex and conforms to a specification.Barry Arrington
December 14, 2011
December
12
Dec
14
14
2011
10:58 PM
10
10
58
PM
PDT
You are right, you don't get the point. The fact that the code was cracked in some way doesn't in any way negate the fact that the code wasn't known initially. Don't try to avoid the issue. The question is very simple: Is it possible to crack a previously uncracked code and recognize as a result that it was designed? Yes or no.Eric Anderson
December 14, 2011
December
12
Dec
14
14
2011
10:41 PM
10
10
41
PM
PDT
"And Barry has already granted that post-hoc pattern recognition is excluded." Not sure what you mean by "post-hoc". Are you saying that Barry thinks it is impossible to identify a pattern from investigating an object/system/information if we don't sit down and specify the pattern we are looking for beforehand?Eric Anderson
December 14, 2011
December
12
Dec
14
14
2011
10:39 PM
10
10
39
PM
PDT
"Egyptian hieroglyphs" Were solved because of 1 to 1 mapping with a known langage ala the Rosetta stone. Don'te get your point here. Seems counter to it.DrREC
December 14, 2011
December
12
Dec
14
14
2011
10:34 PM
10
10
34
PM
PDT
"Again, pre-determined patterns." No, the precise pattern, which is the very thing that ultimately gets identified as designed, is not known. What you have answered is that those looking for a pattern analogized to other things that were recognized as designed. But the specific pattern in question was not known -- let's not be vague here and say "well, they kinda knew; they kinda expected." You don't like a WWII example. Fine, whatever. Pick whichever code you want: cuneiform, Egyptian heiroglyphs, any historian looking at an old, previously unknown text, doesn't matter. I'm just giving an example for purposes of discussion. The question is simple: is it possible to crack a previously unknown code and recognize that it is designed? Has this ever happened? Of course it has. So your answer is yes, it is possible to identify design in these kinds of cases, but you would argue that it is because the investigator is able to analogize to other things he knows to be designed (something "conforming to expectations"), correct?Eric Anderson
December 14, 2011
December
12
Dec
14
14
2011
10:32 PM
10
10
32
PM
PDT
"unusual architectural structure" You recognize something about it as architecture. "cracking a previously-unknown communications code, such as was done in WWII" Pretty sure the Brits knew who was behind that, no design inference required. Doubt they thought the transmissions were natural. The Polish and capturing a few Enigma machines didn't hurt. "determining homicide in an investigation" Again, pre-determined patterns. Something not conforming to expectations? Call X-files? Note also that forensics has a strict adherence to methodological naturalism, but perhaps we'll save that for another thread.DrREC
December 14, 2011
December
12
Dec
14
14
2011
10:21 PM
10
10
21
PM
PDT
DrREC, Thanks for your thoughts and criticism of the specification criterion. Your point seems to be that we can detect design only when it conforms to a pre-specified pattern. Just to make sure I am understanding, is it your position that it would be impossible to identify design in the following instances (in each case where the specification is not known beforehand): (i) finding a new and unusual architectural structure at an archaeological dig site, (ii) cracking a previously-unknown communications code, such as was done in WWII, or (iii) determining homicide in an investigation where it is not known beforehand whether it was a homicide or how it might have been performed?Eric Anderson
December 14, 2011
December
12
Dec
14
14
2011
10:06 PM
10
10
06
PM
PDT
Sure, but don't act like this is some sort of victory. I set the example in referencing pi in pulsar sequences. "Mere improbability is insufficient to warrant a design inference." Is one you should tell the "big number" crowd over and over. Curious that Demski's definition of specification has disappeared: "“he distinction between specified and unspecified information may now be defined as follows: the actualization of a possibility (i.e., information) is specified if independently of the possibility’s actualization, the possibility is identifiable by means of a pattern.” And Barry has already granted that post-hoc pattern recognition is excluded. So I'm curious, what non post-hoc pattern equivalent to pi or prime numbers do you think exists in biology? And don't just reference something improbable, because that fails 2. Hand-waving semiotic definitions are most unimpressive, also. Seriously, if you've found the prime numbers to 100 or the digits of pi in some organism, I'll write your next ID article.....DrREC
December 14, 2011
December
12
Dec
14
14
2011
09:46 PM
9
09
46
PM
PDT
We are making progress!!! That is so rare in these combox debates I wanted to stop and celebrate for a moment. Thank you DrREC. Let's review the points on which we appear to agree. 1. Information is "complex" if it is highly improbable. 2. Mere improbability is insufficient to warrant a design inference. 3. In the "Contact" example, the series of 1,126 pulses and pauses is clearly improbable, but it is no more improbable than any other series of 1,126 pulses and pauses. 4. In the "Contact" example, however, the series conforms to a pattern, the prime numbers between 1 and 100. 5. And because the series conforms to this pattern, we can confidently infer that the series was produced by an intelligent agency, i.e., a design inference is warranted. DrREC, please confirm that we are in agreement on these points and I will answer your question.Barry Arrington
December 14, 2011
December
12
Dec
14
14
2011
09:36 PM
9
09
36
PM
PDT
1 2 3 4 5

Leave a Reply